ANNEXE 1 Part salariale, taux de croissance du salaire réel et de la productivité 1960-2003 12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

ALLEMAGNE productivité

salaire réel

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

AUTRICHE part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

BELGIQUE productivité

salaire réel

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

DANEMARK part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

ESPAGNE productivité

salaire réel

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

FINLANDE part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

1

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

2000

2003

12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

FRANCE productivité

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

GRECE

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

ITALIE productivité

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

IRLANDE

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

LUXEMBOURG productivité

salaire réel

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

PAYS-BAS part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

PORTUGAL productivité

salaire réel

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

ROYAUME-UNI part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

2

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

2000

2003

12

80

10

75

8

70

6

65

4

60

2

55

0

50

45

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

SUEDE productivité

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

UNION EUROPENNE (A 12) productivité

salaire réel

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

UNION EUROPEENNE

part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

12

80

12

80

10

75

10

75

8

70

8

70

6

65

6

65

4

60

4

60

2

55

2

55

0

50

0

50

45

-2

-2 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

45 1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

ETATS-UNIS productivité

salaire réel

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

JAPON part salariale (échelle de droite)

productivité

3

salaire réel

part salariale (échelle de droite)

2000

2003

ANNEXE 2 Une modélisation de la dynamique salariale de longue période

Le modèle de base s’écrit txSAL = (a + b TCHO) txPROD + c txSAL txPROD TCHO

taux de croissance du salaire réel taux de croissance de la productivité taux de chômage

Tableau 2. Résultats économétriques pays Allemagne Autriche Belgique Danemark Espagne Finlande France Grèce Irlande Italie Luxembourg Pays-Bas Portugal Suède Royaume-Uni Union européenne Etats-Unis Japon

prod 1,169 1.029 1.172 1.031 1.013 0.947 1.047 0.633 0.586 1.777 0.445 1.499 0.896 0.635 0.491 1.193 1.381 1.135

t prod*tcho 1,7 -0,155 4.7 -0 .231 8.1 -0.062 6.4 -0.166 10.3 -0.066 5.5 -0.096 10.2 -0.108 2.8 0.016 2.8 -0.028 6.1 -0.175 2.7 -0.165 12.3 -0.262 2.6 -0.203 2.4 -0.059 2.4 -0.064 12.9 -0.146 4.6 -0.124 10.8 -0.253

t -3,5 -2.2 -2.1 -4.4 -3.8 -5.5 -4.3 0.4 -1.6 -3.4 -1.7 -9.3 -2.7 -1.2 -2.1 -5.4 -2.7 -3.1

4

R2 0,65 0.36 0.62 0.50 0.75 0.49 0.74 0.45 0.15 0.59 0.12 0.80 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.80 0.49 0.81

Union européenne

Allemagne

Dependent Variable: UE1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:02 Sample: 1961 2003 Included observations: 43

Dependent Variable: AL1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:02 Sample: 1961 2003 Included observations: 43

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C UE2 UE4

1.104049 1.193018 -0.146241

0.365488 0.092119 0.026984

3.020754 12.95083 -5.419554

0.0044 0.0000 0.0000

C AL2 AL4

0.912624 1.168600 -0.154633

0.539383 0.153493 0.043172

1.691978 7.613381 -3.581763

0.0984 0.0000 0.0009

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.818061 0.808964 0.875871 30.68600 -53.76039 1.631880

2.362791 2.003927 2.640018 2.762893 89.92666 0.000000

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.623582 0.604761 1.738191 120.8523 -83.23179 1.358431

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

2.583721 2.764824 4.010781 4.133655 33.13240 0.000000

8 16

6

12

4

8

2

3

0

2

-2

1

4

6

0

4

-4

2

0 0

-1 -2

-2 65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

-4 65

Residual

Actual

70

75

80

85

90

95

Fitted Residual

Actual

Fitted

00

Autriche

Belgique

Dependent Variable: AU1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:00 Sample: 1961 2003 Included observations: 43

Dependent Variable: BE1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:01 Sample: 1961 2003 Included observations: 43

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C AU2 AU4

1.309164 1.029535 -0.231477

0.549385 0.215711 0.101465

2.382961 4.772760 -2.281357

0.0220 0.0000 0.0279

C BE2 BE4

0.600746 1.172040 -0.062402

0.423080 0.143269 0.028916

1.419937 8.180717 -2.158066

0.1634 0.0000 0.0370

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.397562 0.367441 1.636647 107.1445 -80.64339 1.983962

2.713953 2.057805 3.890390 4.013265 13.19846 0.000040

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.642406 0.624527 1.586804 100.7178 -79.31349 1.256696

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

2.832558 2.589606 3.828535 3.951409 35.92941 0.000000

12

12

8

8

4 6 4

0

2

-4

0 -2

4

4

2

0

0

-4

-2

-4 -6

-4 65

70

75

Residual

80

85 Actual

90

95

00

65

Fitted

70

75

Residual

6

80

85 Actual

90

95 Fitted

00

Danemark

Espagne

Dependent Variable: DN1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:04 Sample: 1961 2003 Included observations: 43

Dependent Variable: ES1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:04 Sample: 1961 2003 Included observations: 43

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C DN2 DN4

1.172831 1.031835 -0.166047

0.392016 0.161013 0.037621

2.991797 6.408380 -4.413695

0.0047 0.0000 0.0001

C ES2 ES4

1.066361 1.013196 -0.065788

0.511624 0.098678 0.017117

2.084266 10.26768 -3.843362

0.0436 0.0000 0.0004

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.522171 0.498280 1.646816 108.4801 -80.90973 1.858310

1.953488 2.324953 3.902778 4.025653 21.85598 0.000000

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.765037 0.753288 1.770080 125.3273 -84.01352 1.940067

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

3.430233 3.563675 4.047141 4.170015 65.11963 0.000000

12 16 8

12

4

8

6 4

0

2

-4

6

4

4

0

2

0

-4

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6 65

70

75

80

85

90

95

00

-6 65

Residual

Actual

70

75

80

85

90

95

Fitted Residual

7

Actual

Fitted

00

Finlande

France

Dependent Variable: FI1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:11 Sample: 1961 2003 Included observations: 43

Dependent Variable: FR1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:12 Sample: 1961 2003 Included observations: 43

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C FI2 FI4

1.574781 0.947037 -0.096235

0.552454 0.170263 0.017507

2.850520 5.562203 -5.496937

0.0069 0.0000 0.0000

C FR2 FR4

1.087660 1.044451 -0.108343

0.464474 0.102645 0.024956

2.341704 10.17541 -4.341394

0.0243 0.0000 0.0001

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.516800 0.492640 1.915730 146.8009 -87.41372 1.470205

2.802326 2.689529 4.205289 4.328164 21.39072 0.000000

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.752461 0.740084 1.092670 47.75714 -63.27032 1.742735

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

2.506977 2.143250 3.082340 3.205215 60.79541 0.000000

8

8 6

4

4 0

6

6

4

-4

4

2 0

2

2 0

-2

0

-2

-2

-4 -6

-4 65

70

75

Residual

80

85 Actual

90

95

00

65

Fitted

70

75

Residual

8

80

85 Actual

90

95 Fitted

00

Grèce

Irlande

Dependent Variable: GR1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:12 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2003 Included observations: 42 after adjusting endpoints

Dependent Variable: IR1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:13 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2003 Included observations: 42 after adjusting endpoints

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C GR2 GR4

0.583266 0.632887 0.016017

0.695966 0.227411 0.041208

0.838066 2.783008 0.388692

0.4071 0.0083 0.6996

C IR2 IR4

1.701430 0.586379 -0.028421

0.564752 0.207750 0.018117

3.012703 2.822521 -1.568741

0.0045 0.0075 0.1248

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.481155 0.454547 3.646337 518.5353 -112.3755 1.661221

3.042857 4.937173 5.494073 5.618192 18.08347 0.000003

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.194460 0.153150 2.179819 185.3128 -90.76731 1.979322

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

2.892857 2.368739 4.465110 4.589229 4.707352 0.014747

15

12

10

8

5 4 8

0

4

-5

4

0

-10

2

6

0 -4

0 -4

-2

-8

-4

-12

-6 65

70

75 Residual

80

85 Actual

90

95

00

65

Fitted

70

75 Residual

9

80

85 Actual

90

95 Fitted

00

Italie

Luxembourg

Dependent Variable: IT1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:14 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2003 Included observations: 42 after adjusting endpoints Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C IT2 IT4

0.808995 1.777841 -0.175305

0.474055 0.288343 0.050807

1.706545 6.165719 -3.450410

0.0959 0.0000 0.0014

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.608171 0.588078 2.020697 159.2455 -87.58374 1.705752

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Dependent Variable: LU1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:16 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2003 Included observations: 42 after adjusting endpoints

2.576190 3.148427 4.313511 4.437631 30.26667 0.000000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C LU2 LU4

2.020605 0.445403 -0.165198

0.501806 0.159397 0.098186

4.026667 2.794302 -1.682492

0.0003 0.0080 0.1005

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.167522 0.124830 2.754020 295.8004 -100.5877 1.472117

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

2.450000 2.943886 4.932749 5.056869 3.924031 0.028007

12 12 8

8

4

4

8 0

12

4

0

8

-4 0

4

-4

0

-4

-4 -8 65

70

75

80

85

90

95

-8

00

65 Residual

Actual

70

75

80

85

90

95

Fitted Residual

10

Actual

Fitted

00

Pays-Bas

Portugal

Dependent Variable: ND1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:17 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2003 Included observations: 42 after adjusting endpoints

Dependent Variable: PO1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:24 Sample: 1962 1994 1998 2003 Included observations: 39

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C ND2 ND4

1.162370 1.499357 -0.261514

0.312744 0.121463 0.027930

3.716679 12.34418 -9.363332

0.0006 0.0000 0.0000

C PO2 PO4

3.766287 0.896141 -0.203123

1.234877 0.348840 0.074401

3.049929 2.568917 -2.730096

0.0043 0.0145 0.0097

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.811478 0.801810 1.320568 68.01207 -69.71775 1.451304

2.345238 2.966332 3.462750 3.586869 83.93603 0.000000

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.186870 0.141696 4.680799 788.7557 -113.9731 1.651569

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

3.779487 5.052419 5.998618 6.126584 4.136670 0.024148

12

20 15

8

10 4

5

15 4

0

0

10 -5

2

-4

5

0

-10

0

-2

-5

-4

-10 65

70

75 Residual

80

85 Actual

90

95

00

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Fitted

Residual

11

Actual

2000

Fitted

Suède

Royaume-Uni

Dependent Variable: SU1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:26 Sample: 1962 2003 Included observations: 42

Dependent Variable: UK1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:27 Sample: 1962 2003 Included observations: 42

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C SU2 SU4

1.119633 0.635178 -0.059095

0.559515 0.263734 0.047009

2.001076 2.408406 -1.257105

0.0524 0.0208 0.2162

C UK2 UK4

2.050450 0.491381 -0.064255

0.429605 0.203087 0.029885

4.772878 2.419559 -2.150097

0.0000 0.0203 0.0378

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.133054 0.088595 2.536222 250.8644 -97.12752 1.131044

1.928571 2.656633 4.767977 4.892097 2.992752 0.061779

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.142790 0.098831 1.809982 127.7653 -82.95845 2.057462

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

6 4 2

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

2.292857 1.906650 4.093260 4.217379 3.248219 0.049568

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

6

0

-2

4

-2

-4

2

-4

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6 65

70

75 Residual

80

85 Actual

90

95

00

65

Fitted

70

75 Residual

12

80

85 Actual

90

95 Fitted

00

Etats-Unis

Japon

Dependent Variable: US1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:28 Sample: 1962 2003 Included observations: 42

Dependent Variable: JP1 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/17/04 Time: 13:15 Sample(adjusted): 1962 2003 Included observations: 42 after adjusting endpoints

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C US2 US4

0.342249 1.381117 -0.123535

0.229828 0.301898 0.046586

1.489155 4.574786 -2.651741

0.1445 0.0000 0.0115

C JP2 JP4

0.669845 1.135373 -0.252924

0.412186 0.105567 0.079957

1.625104 10.75501 -3.163261

0.1122 0.0000 0.0030

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.514349 0.489443 0.951800 35.33102 -55.96435 1.172793

1.402381 1.332060 2.807826 2.931945 20.65226 0.000001

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.822991 0.813913 1.376183 73.86133 -71.45033 1.215467

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

3.233333 3.190204 3.545254 3.669373 90.66360 0.000000

4

12

3

8

2 4

3

1

2

0

4

0

1

-1

2

-4

0

-2

0

-1 -2

-2 -3

-4 65

70

75 Residual

80

85 Actual

90

95

00

65

Fitted

70

75 Residual

13

80

85 Actual

90

95 Fitted

00

ANNEXE 3 Estimations du taux de salaire par grands secteurs 1981-2001

France Danemark Espagne Allemagne Royaume-Uni Italie Pays-Bas Suède USA

Variables SAL salaire réel (taux de croissance) PROD productivité (taux de croissance) A industrie B services marchands C services non marchands TCHO taux de chômage COMP indicateur de compétitivité

14

France

.015

Dependent Variable: SAL4D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 11:35 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21 Variable

.010

.005 .008

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

.000

Prob. .004

C PROD4D TCHO4 COMP4D R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.018589 0.099302 -0.001525 -0.066581 0.425338 0.323927 0.003245 0.000179 92.76516 2.115899

0.007221 0.216602 0.000629 0.066855

2.574520 0.458454 -2.423668 -0.995900

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.0197 0.6524 0.0268 0.3333

-.005

.000

-.004

0.004108 0.003946 -8.453824 -8.254868 4.194196 0.021539

-.008 1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

ré s id u

1993

1995

o b s e rvé

1997

1999

2001

a ju s t é

.016 .012

Dependent Variable: SAL4AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 11:37 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.008 .004 .008

-.004

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD4AD TCHO4 COMP4D

0.010416 0.133510 -0.000774 -0.178244

0.007746 0.135290 0.000809 0.087975

1.344705 0.986848 -0.956174 -2.026079

0.1964 0.3376 0.3524 0.0587

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.344153 0.228415 0.004101 0.000286 87.84959 2.393374

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-.008 .000

-.004

-.008 1981

1985

1987

1989

1991

R e s id u a l

1993

A

1995

c t u a l

1997

1999

2001

F it t e d

.02

.01

.00

.010 .005

-.01 .000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD4BD TCHO4 COMP4

-0.120432 0.089330 -0.001756 0.071495

0.149256 0.225861 0.000841 0.076532

-0.806884 0.395507 -2.089334 0.934193

0.4309 0.6974 0.0520 0.3633

0.294076 0.169502 0.004568 0.000355 85.58521 2.561582

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-.005 -.010 -.015 1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

ré s id u

0.004152 0.005012 -7.770020 -7.571064 2.360643 0.107539

1991

1993

o b s e rvé

1995

1997

1999

2001

a ju s t é

.015 .010 .005

Dependent Variable: SAL4CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:25 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.000 -.005

.008 .004 .000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD4CD TCHO4 COMP4

-0.039428 0.486751 -0.000896 0.025949

0.164982 0.273412 0.001042 0.083358

-0.238984 1.780283 -0.859837 0.311299

0.8140 0.0929 0.4018 0.7594

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

1983

0.005044 0.004668 -7.985675 -7.786719 2.973558 0.061006

Dependent Variable: SAL4BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:23 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

.000

.004

0.272113 0.143663 0.005593 0.000532 81.33055 0.884820

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-.004 -.008 -.012 1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

résidu

0.004123 0.006044 -7.364814 -7.165858 2.118426 0.135667

15

1991

1993

observé

1995

ajusté

1997

1999

2001

Danemark

.015

Dependent Variable: SAL2D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 17:52 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.010 .005 .000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

.008

C PROD2D TCHO2 COMP2D

0.014670 0.119664 -0.001696 0.157130

0.004367 0.194119 0.000640 0.076694

3.359140 0.616448 -2.650372 2.048804

0.0037 0.5458 0.0168 0.0562

.004

-.005 -.010 .000 -.004

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.441913 0.343427 0.004272 0.000310 86.99138 1.824379

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.004397 0.005272 -7.903941 -7.704985 4.487061 0.017052

-.008 -.012 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL2AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 17:56 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21 Variable

.020 .015 .010

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

.005 .02

C PROD2AD TCHO2 COMP2D R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.014390 0.162890 -0.001617 0.203902 0.288148 0.162527 0.006665 0.000755 77.64999 1.437477

0.006751 0.099191 0.000992 0.131814

2.131642 1.642178 -1.630421 1.546900

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.0479 0.1189 0.1214 0.1403

.000 .01

-.005 -.010

.00

0.005220 0.007283 -7.014285 -6.815328 2.293787 0.114609

-.01

-.02 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL2BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 17:58 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.015

.010

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD2BD TCHO2 COMP2D

0.015425 0.080209 -0.001695 0.145885

0.004776 0.158313 0.000680 0.081390

3.230118 0.506645 -2.491693 1.792417

0.0049 0.6189 0.0233 0.0909

.005 .008 .000 .004

-.005

-.010

.000

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.415324 0.312146 0.004538 0.000350 85.72299 2.015699

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.004813 0.005471 -7.783142 -7.584186 4.025313 0.024712

-.004

-.008 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL2CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 17:59 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.020 .015 .010

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD2CD TCHO2 COMP2D

0.019310 0.394310 -0.002535 0.056740

0.006899 0.273039 0.001080 0.111029

2.798794 1.444154 -2.346577 0.511035

0.0123 0.1669 0.0313 0.6159

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.325192 0.206108 0.005547 0.000523 81.50659 1.966742

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.005 .000 -.005

.008

-.010 .004

.000

0.003468 0.006225 -7.381580 -7.182624 2.730785 0.076087

-.004

-.008 1982

1984

1986

1988

Residual

16

1990

1992

Actual

1994

1996

Fitted

1998

2000

Espagne

.020

Dependent Variable: SAL3D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 18:04 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.015 .010 .005 .015 .000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

.010

C PROD3D TCHO3 COMP3D

0.015385 -0.066580 -0.000762 -0.077796

0.007398 0.297921 0.000513 0.060927

2.079745 -0.223481 -1.486591 -1.276876

0.0530 0.8258 0.1554 0.2188

.005

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.174257 0.028538 0.005797 0.000571 80.57796 1.615963

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-.005 -.010

.000

-.005

0.004139 0.005882 -7.293139 -7.094182 1.195844 0.341160

-.010 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.03

Dependent Variable: SAL3AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 18:06 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.02 .01 .02 .00

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD3AD TCHO3 COMP3D

0.019211 -0.234350 -0.001004 -0.140404

0.011292 0.283799 0.000758 0.097584

1.701247 -0.825760 -1.324851 -1.438802

0.1071 0.4204 0.2028 0.1684

-.01

.01

-.02

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.174276 0.028559 0.008682 0.001281 72.09811 1.039354

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.00 -.03

-.01

0.002881 0.008808 -6.485535 -6.286578 1.195994 0.341107

-.02 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.015

Dependent Variable: SAL3BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 18:07 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.010 .005 .000 -.005

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD3BD TCHO3 COMP3D

0.011239 -0.025101 -0.000584 -0.156305

0.007827 0.227595 0.000535 0.064708

1.436013 -0.110287 -1.090957 -2.415549

0.1691 0.9135 0.2905 0.0273

.015

-.010

.010 .005 .000 -.005 -.010

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.278383 0.151039 0.006129 0.000639 79.41052 2.435828

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.003009 0.006652 -7.181954 -6.982997 2.186066 0.127085

-.015 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.020 .015

Dependent Variable: SAL2CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 18:09 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.010 .005 .000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD2CD TCHO2 COMP2D

0.019310 0.394310 -0.002535 0.056740

0.006899 0.273039 0.001080 0.111029

2.798794 1.444154 -2.346577 0.511035

0.0123 0.1669 0.0313 0.6159

-.005

.008

-.010

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.325192 0.206108 0.005547 0.000523 81.50659 1.966742

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.004

.000

-.004

0.003468 0.006225 -7.381580 -7.182624 2.730785 0.076087

-.008 1982

1984

1986

1988

Residual

17

1990

1992

Actual

1994

1996

Fitted

1998

2000

Allemagne

.015

Dependent Variable: SAL1D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 18:26 Sample: 1981 1991 1993 2001 Included observations: 20

.010

.012 .005 .008

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD1D TCHO1 COMP1D

-9.80E-05 0.302363 0.000299 -0.039422

0.004048 0.273420 0.000580 0.056112

-0.024200 1.105856 0.515836 -0.702565

0.9810 0.2851 0.6130 0.4924

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.139743 -0.021555 0.004043 0.000262 84.06758 1.314192

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.000 .004 -.005

.000

-.004

0.003935 0.004000 -8.006758 -7.807612 0.866368 0.478768

-.008 81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

Residual

91

94

95

Actual

96

97

98

99

00

01

Fitted

.012

Dependent Variable: SAL1AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 18:28 Sample: 1981 1991 1993 2001 Included observations: 20

.008

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD1AD TCHO1 COMP1D

0.000701 0.187307 0.000839 -0.052936

0.004797 0.114283 0.000722 0.071003

0.146120 1.638969 1.161436 -0.745551

0.8857 0.1207 0.2625 0.4668

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.296024 0.164029 0.004974 0.000396 79.92227 1.721081

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.012

.004

.008

.000

.004

-.004

.000

-.008

-.004

-.008

0.007925 0.005440 -7.592227 -7.393080 2.242685 0.122704

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

Residual

91

94

95

Actual

96

97

98

99

00

01

Fitted

.02 .00

Dependent Variable: SAL1BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 18:30 Sample: 1981 1991 1993 2001 Included observations: 20

-.02 -.04 .012

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD1BD TCHO1 COMP1D

-0.002109 0.464925 0.000212 -0.057599

0.004590 0.243776 0.000583 0.055258

-0.459512 1.907178 0.363186 -1.042357

0.6520 0.0746 0.7212 0.3127

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

-.06

.008

0.211484 0.063637 0.004050 0.000262 84.03382 1.303476

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-.08

.004 .000 -.004 -.008 1982

1984

1986

0.002749 0.004185 -8.003382 -7.804235 1.430429 0.270779

1988

1990

1992

Residual

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.012 .008 .004

Dependent Variable: SAL1CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 18:23 Sample: 1981 1991 1993 2001 Included observations: 20

.000

.008

-.004 .004 -.008 -.012

.000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD1CD TCHO1 COMP1D

-0.002210 1.455750 0.000726 0.027448

0.004784 0.595517 0.000701 0.070079

-0.461994 2.444515 1.035924 0.391677

0.6503 0.0265 0.3156 0.7005

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.334122 0.209270 0.004900 0.000384 80.22237 1.412611

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-.004

-.008 81

0.002341 0.005511 -7.622237 -7.423091 2.676144 0.082183

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

Residual

18

89

90

91

Actual

94

95

96

97

Fitted

98

99

00

01

Royaume-Uni

.025

Dependent Variable: SAL5D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:16 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.020 .015

.005

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

.008

C PROD5D TCHO5 COMP5

-0.133750 0.273565 0.000630 0.065508

0.067308 0.184654 0.000623 0.031301

-1.987121 1.481502 1.011931 2.092882

0.0633 0.1568 0.3258 0.0517

.004

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

.010

.012

0.384903 0.276356 0.004297 0.000314 86.86692 1.508127

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.000 -.005 .000

-.004

0.009460 0.005051 -7.892088 -7.693131 3.545969 0.036916

-.008 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.04

Dependent Variable: SAL5AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:18 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.03 .02

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD5AD TCHO5 COMP5

-0.226616 0.180315 0.002749 0.102549

0.115169 0.198729 0.000993 0.053754

-1.967681 0.907342 2.767014 1.907735

0.0656 0.3769 0.0132 0.0735

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.508359 0.421599 0.006917 0.000813 76.87116 2.119294

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.01 .02 .00 .01 -.01 .00

0.011794 0.009095 -6.940111 -6.741154 5.859368 0.006143

-.01

-.02 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL5BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:19 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.03

.02

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD5BD TCHO5 COMP5

-0.369512 0.435093 0.001404 0.177048

0.083917 0.154196 0.000681 0.039161

-4.403287 2.821694 2.060170 4.520994

0.0004 0.0118 0.0550 0.0003

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.617167 0.549608 0.005645 0.000542 81.13693 1.949341

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.015

.01

.010 .00 .005 -.01 .000

0.011783 0.008412 -7.346374 -7.147418 9.135255 0.000794

-.005

-.010 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL5CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:20 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.03

.02

.01

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD5CD TCHO5 COMP5

0.115869 0.585679 -0.001470 -0.046752

0.091531 0.254728 0.000735 0.042662

1.265890 2.299231 -1.999555 -1.095864

0.2226 0.0344 0.0618 0.2884

.00 .015 -.01

.010 .005 .000

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.408558 0.304186 0.006156 0.000644 79.31671 2.199519

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.007793 0.007380 -7.173020 -6.974064 3.914436 0.027075

-.005 -.010 -.015 1982

1984

1986

1988

Residual

19

1990

1992

Actual

1994

1996

Fitted

1998

2000

Italie

.02

Dependent Variable: SAL6D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:29 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.01

.00

-.01

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD6D TCHO6 COMP6

-0.075991 0.430205 -0.001099 0.042120

0.074962 0.259737 0.000796 0.035288

-1.013735 1.656307 -1.381706 1.193610

0.3249 0.1160 0.1850 0.2490

.010

-.02

.005 .000 -.005 -.010

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.250056 0.117713 0.005557 0.000525 81.46773 2.652969

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.003025 0.005916 -7.377879 -7.178923 1.889457 0.169694

-.015 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.02

Dependent Variable: SAL6AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:30 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21 Variable C PROD6AD TCHO6 COMP6 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

.01

.00

Coefficient -0.077985 0.413510 -0.000243 0.039041 0.503760 0.416188 0.005244 0.000467 82.68673 3.063703

Std. Error 0.070824 0.106595 0.000742 0.033338

t-Statistic -1.101115 3.879248 -0.327477 1.171059

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.

.010

0.2862 0.0012 0.7473 0.2577

.005

-.01

-.02

.000 -.005

0.004510 0.006863 -7.493975 -7.295018 5.752534 0.006625

-.010 -.015 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL6BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:31 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.010 .005 .000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD6BD TCHO6 COMP6

-0.093779 0.284017 -0.000732 0.048047

0.071986 0.184640 0.000823 0.033810

-1.302738 1.538218 -0.889485 1.421080

0.2100 0.1424 0.3862 0.1734

-.005 .010

-.010 -.015

.005

.000

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.224004 0.087063 0.005332 0.000483 82.33684 2.503964

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-0.000837 0.005580 -7.460652 -7.261695 1.635775 0.218396

-.005

-.010 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL6CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:33 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.03 .02

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD6CD TCHO6 COMP6

-0.014236 0.065577 -0.001144 0.013706

0.167625 0.583732 0.001742 0.080269

-0.084925 0.112341 -0.657018 0.170745

0.9333 0.9119 0.5200 0.8664

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.030260 -0.140871 0.011753 0.002348 65.73753 2.174350

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.01 .00

0.002776 0.011004 -5.879765 -5.680808 0.176823 0.910619

.03

-.01

.02

-.02

.01

-.03

.00 -.01 -.02 -.03 1982

1984

1986

1988

Residual

20

1990

1992

Actual

1994

1996

Fitted

1998

2000

Pays-Bas

.012

Dependent Variable: SAL7D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:41 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.008 .004 .000 .008

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD7D TCHO7 COMP7

-0.294821 -0.052761 -0.000801 0.152634

0.209573 0.350928 0.000821 0.107259

-1.406772 -0.150348 -0.975271 1.423041

0.1775 0.8823 0.3431 0.1728

-.004 .004 -.008 .000 -.004 -.008

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.146245 -0.004417 0.005080 0.000439 83.35098 1.159550

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.002249 0.005069 -7.557237 -7.358280 0.970680 0.429456

-.012 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.03

Dependent Variable: SAL7AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:43 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.02

.01

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

.015

C PROD7AD TCHO7 COMP7

-0.398055 -0.056708 0.000401 0.203008

0.241459 0.131109 0.000862 0.123454

-1.648543 -0.432526 0.465861 1.644403

0.1176 0.6708 0.6472 0.1185

.010

.00

-.01 .005 .000 -.005

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.294417 0.169902 0.006066 0.000626 79.62621 1.820922

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.006376 0.006658 -7.202497 -7.003540 2.364516 0.107145

-.010 -.015 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL7BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:44 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.016 .012 .008 .004

Variable C PROD7BD TCHO7 COMP7 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient -0.293164 0.434711 -0.001301 0.152700 0.210241 0.070871 0.005605 0.000534 81.28585 1.486211

Std. Error 0.218191 0.232881 0.000786 0.111592

t-Statistic -1.343613 1.866668 -1.654927 1.368373

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.

.000 .012

0.1967 0.0793 0.1163 0.1890

-.004

.008

-.008

.004 .000

0.003025 0.005815 -7.360557 -7.161600 1.508514 0.248243

-.004 -.008 -.012 1982

1984

1986

Dependent Variable: SAL7CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 19:45 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

1990

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.015 .010

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD7CD TCHO7 COMP7

-0.150672 0.794802 -0.001346 0.080627

0.205829 0.344097 0.000648 0.105145

-0.732024 2.309822 -2.077409 0.766822

0.4741 0.0337 0.0532 0.4537

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

1988

Residual

0.377570 0.267730 0.005345 0.000486 82.28396 0.860512

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.005 .000 .008

-0.000155 0.006246 -7.455616 -7.256659 3.437438 0.040525

-.005

.004

-.010

.000

-.015

-.004 -.008 -.012 1982

1984

1986

1988

Residual

21

1990

1992

Actual

1994

1996

Fitted

1998

2000

Suède

.03

Dependent Variable: SAL8D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 20:17 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.02

.01 .02 .00

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD8D TCHO8 COMP8

0.069627 -0.303342 0.001101 -0.031538

0.120988 0.437379 0.001285 0.058559

0.575489 -0.693544 0.856760 -0.538565

0.5725 0.4973 0.4035 0.5972

.01 -.01

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.099909 -0.058931 0.009041 0.001390 71.24641 1.917031

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.00

-.01

0.007796 0.008786 -6.404420 -6.205464 0.628990 0.606201

-.02 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.04

.03

Dependent Variable: SAL8AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 20:25 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.02 .03

.01

.02

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

.00

Prob. .01

C PROD8AD TCHO8 COMP8 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.022319 0.021068 0.000714 -0.007994 0.058774 -0.107325 0.009376 0.001495 70.48224 2.253018

0.123503 0.150683 0.001226 0.059742

0.180714 0.139815 0.582202 -0.133803

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.8587 0.8904 0.5681 0.8951

-.01

0.009678 0.008910 -6.331642 -6.132686 0.353847 0.786949

-.02 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.04 .03

Dependent Variable: SAL8BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 20:20 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21 Variable

-.01

.00

.02 .01 .02

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

.00

.01

Prob.

-.01 -.02

.00

C PROD8BD TCHO8 COMP8 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.182486 -0.101378 0.000863 -0.087350 0.200584 0.059511 0.010328 0.001814 68.45086 2.225233

0.156873 0.395273 0.001518 0.075680

1.163277 -0.256475 0.568696 -1.154198

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

0.2608 0.8007 0.5770 0.2644

-.01 -.02 -.03

0.008305 0.010650 -6.138177 -5.939221 1.421844 0.271007

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.03

Dependent Variable: SAL8CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 20:26 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.02

.03

.01

.02

.00

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD8CD TCHO8 COMP8

-0.059514 0.506221 0.000890 0.029419

0.134601 0.804690 0.001127 0.065161

-0.442153 0.629089 0.789786 0.451476

0.6640 0.5377 0.4405 0.6574

.01

-.01

.00

-.02

0.005309 0.009633 -6.202368 -6.003412 0.517001 0.676150

-.01

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.083608 -0.078109 0.010002 0.001701 69.12487 1.316778

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-.02 1982

1984

1986

1988

Residual

22

1990

1992

Actual

1994

1996

Fitted

1998

2000

USA

.016

Dependent Variable: SAL9D Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 20:27 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.012 .008 .004 .008 .000

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD9D TCHO9 COMP9

-0.045326 0.454073 -0.001017 0.026466

0.034927 0.201736 0.000571 0.017701

-1.297704 2.250829 -1.780752 1.495202

0.2117 0.0379 0.0928 0.1532

.004 -.004

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.392218 0.284962 0.003690 0.000231 90.06797 1.999108

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.000

-.004

0.005579 0.004363 -8.196950 -7.997993 3.656848 0.033592

-.008 1982

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.02

Dependent Variable: SAL9AD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 20:28 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.01

.00 .015

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

.010

C PROD9AD TCHO9 COMP9

-0.037216 0.206432 -0.000166 0.019675

0.062400 0.124268 0.001031 0.031411

-0.596414 1.661192 -0.160763 0.626359

0.5588 0.1150 0.8742 0.5394

.005

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

1984

0.162530 0.014742 0.006691 0.000761 77.56769 1.666357

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

-.01

.000 -.005 -.010

0.005386 0.006741 -7.006447 -6.807490 1.099749 0.376379

-.015 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

.025

Dependent Variable: SAL9BD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 20:30 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.020 .015 .010 .005

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD9BD TCHO9 COMP9

-0.042713 0.730136 -0.000671 0.023647

0.044310 0.196683 0.000815 0.022341

-0.963960 3.712240 -0.823693 1.058462

0.3486 0.0017 0.4215 0.3047

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.557143 0.478992 0.004752 0.000384 84.75351 1.935314

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.008

.000

.004

-.005

.000 -.004

0.006788 0.006584 -7.690811 -7.491854 7.129047 0.002624

-.008 -.012 1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

Residual

1992

1994

Actual

1996

1998

2000

Fitted

Dependent Variable: SAL9CD Method: Least Squares Date: 05/23/05 Time: 20:31 Sample: 1981 2001 Included observations: 21

.016

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C PROD9CD TCHO9 COMP9

-0.057928 0.437540 0.000335 0.030448

0.033818 0.364646 0.000404 0.016944

-1.712919 1.199902 0.827956 1.796995

0.1049 0.2466 0.4192 0.0901

R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

0.564593 0.487756 0.002421 9.96E-05 98.91754 1.648830

Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)

.012

.008 .006 .004 .004 .002

0.006531 0.003382 -9.039766 -8.840809 7.347975 0.002285

.000

.000 -.002 -.004 -.006 1982

1984

1986

1988

Residual

23

1990

1992

Actual

1994

1996

Fitted

1998

2000