Ref No: R301 March 2007
Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service
Phosphate Rock to 2015 Six Monthly Update
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X OAD Tel: +44 (0) 20 7903 2132 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7833 4973 Website: www.crugroup.com This report is supplied on a private and confidential basis to the customer. Its contents must not be disclosed to any other company, organisation or individual, nor be photocopied or otherwise reproduced in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of CRU International. This report is delivered on the understanding that CRU International’s liability is limited to the provision of the professional services outlined in the contract for this report. Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, CRU International cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions or that the proposed investment will be successful. If the client uses our work in any information Memorandum or similar document for the purpose of raising funds, CRU International accepts no liability to third parties however arising and without limitation. ©CRU International Ltd, 2007. All rights reserved.
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Contents Page Executive Summary I. World Overview II. Prices III. Capacity/Project Developments IV. Supply V. Demand VI. Trade VII. Forecast Sensitivities Points to Watch
i ii iii iv v vi viii ix xi
Chapter 1 - Recent Market Developments 1 1.1 World Overview 1 1.2 Prices 3 1.3 Capacity/Acquisitions 5 1.3.1 Phosphate Rock Mining 5 1.3.1.1 China 5 1.3.1.2 Egypt – El Watania to increase capacity to 600,000 tonnes in 2007 5 1.3.1.3 Russia – Far Eastern apatite deposit to be mined from 2009 6 1.3.1.4 Canada – Agrium’s Kapuskasing mine reserves downgraded 6 1.3.1.5 South Africa – Foskor improve mining efficiency 6 1.3.1.6 Sri Lanka – Government approves development of Eppawala for SSP 6 1.3.1.7 Uzbekistan – Upgrade of ore washing units complete at Navoi deposit 7 1.3.1.8 Russia – Gazprom dispute NWPC’s extraction rights for Oleny-Ruchey 7 1.3.2 Acquisitions 7 1.3.2.1 Brazil – Contentious proposal for a merger between Fosfertil and Bunge 7 1.3.2.2 Russia – PhosAgro loses 20% of Apatit to the Russian Government 8 1.3.2.3 Pakistan 8 1.3.3 Integrated Mining and Phosphoric Acid Projects 8 1.3.3.1 Jordan – JPMC and IFFCO joint venture to produce phosphoric acid 8 1.3.3.2 Egypt – El Nasr and IFFCO phosphoric acid joint venture in jeopardy 9 1.3.3.3 China – Anhui Liuguo acquire Shusongshan mine and plan purified phosphoric acid plant 9
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Contents continued Page Chapter 1 - Recent Market Developments (Concluded.) 1.3.4 Phosphoric Acid Production 1.3.4.1 China 1.4. Phosphate Rock Demand/Trade 1.4.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Demand 1.4.1.1 Crop Demand, World Stocks and Prices 1.4.1.2 Phosphate Fertilizer Demand 1.4.2 Phosphate Rock Imports 1.4.2.1 World Situation 1.4.3 Phosphate Rock Exports 1.4.3.1 World Situation 1.4.3.2 China – Exports decrease significantly 1.5 Phosphate Rock Production 1.5.1 Chinese 30% P2O5 rock production increases by 28% 1.6 Ocean Freights
10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 16 16 18
Chapter 2 - Market Forecasts 2.1 Prices 2.2 Mining Capacity 2.3 Phosphate Rock Supply 2.4 Phosphate Rock Demand 2.5 Phosphate Rock Trade 2.5.1 Phosphate Rock Imports 2.5.2 Phosphate Rock Exports
19 19 21 22 25 27 27 28
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List of Tables Page Executive Summary Table I: Global Phosphate Rock Market Overview, 2002-2007 Table II: Phosphate Rock Price Forecast Table III: World Phosphate Rock Production Forecast 2005-2015 Table IV: World Crop Situation - Wheat, Coarse Grains and Rice Table V: World Phosphate Rock Demand Forecast, 2005-2015 Table VI: Phosphate Rock Imports Forecast, 2005-2015 Table VII: Phosphate Rock Exports Forecast, 2005-2015
i ii iii vi vi vii viii ix
Chapter 1 - Recent Market Developments Table 1.1 Global Phosphate Rock Market Overview, 2002-2007 Table 1.2: World Crop Situation - Wheat, Coarse Grains and Rice
1 1 11
Chapter 2 - Market Forecasts Table 2.1: Phosphate Rock Price Forecast Table 2.2: World Phosphate Rock Capacity Forecast, 2005-2015 Table 2.3: Net Changes to Global Capacity Forecast, 2005-2015 Table 2.4: World Phosphate Rock Production Forecast, 2005-15 Table 2.5: Net Changes to Phosphate Rock Production Forecast Table 2.6 World Phosphate Rock Demand Forecast, 2005-2015 Table 2.7: Net Changes to Phosphate Rock Demand Forecast Table 2.8: Phosphate Rock Imports Forecast, 2005-2015 Table 2.9: Net Changes to Phosphate Rock Imports Forecast Table 2.10: Phosphate Rock Exports Forecast, 2005-2015 Table 2.11: Net Changes to Phosphate Rock Exports Forecast
19 19 21 22 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
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List of Tables continued Page
Statistical Review Appendix A: Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015 A-1 Table A.1: Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Rock A-2 Appendix B: Production of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015 Table B.1: Production of Phosphate Rock
B-1 B-2
Appendix C: Phosphate Rock Capacity, 2003-2015 Table C.1: Phosphate Rock Capacity
C-1 C-2
Appendix D: Imports of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015 Table D.1: Imports of Phosphate Rock
D-1 D-2
Appendix E: Exports of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015 Table E.1: Exports of Phosphate Rock
E-1 E-2
Appendix F: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrices - 2003, 2004 & 2005 Table F.1: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2003 Table F.2: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2004 Table F.3: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2005
F-1 F-2 F-4 F-6
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List of Diagrams Page Chapter 1 - Recent Market Developments Diagram 1.1: DAP weekly prices November 2005-February 2007 Diagram 1.2: Average Moroccan 72% BPL Phosphate Rock Price Diagram 1.3: Cereal & Oilseed Prices Move Up, Wheat and Maize at Ten Year Highs Diagram 1.4: Global Phosphate Fertilizer Demand Diagram 1.5: Top Five Exporters, 2005 & 2006 Diagram 1.6: Chinese Phosphate Rock Exports, 2000-2006 Diagram 1.7: Chinese production of 30% P2O5 and low grade phosphate rock, 2000-2006 Diagram 1.8: Four biggest Chinese producers of phosphate rock 2006 Diagram 1.9: Baltic Freight/Dry Index
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Unless otherwise noted in the text, the statistics in this Report are drawn from British Sulphur Consultants’ database for fertilizers, minerals and chemicals. This database is assembled by the expert staff of British Sulphur Consultants, using information from a wide range of sources, including the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), various regional and national agencies, and suppliers of international trade statistics, including Global Trade Information Services Inc. (GTIS), as well as individual producers and exporters of these products.
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Extranet Available on the CRU extranet are: • • • • •
The full report in PDF format The Appendices of the report as a Excel file The Tables of the report as a Excel file The Diagrams of the report as a PowerPoint file An exclusive Executive Summary Presentation in PowerPoint
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Executive Summary The most significant developments since the publication of the Ten Year Outlook to 2015 are the following: • US production decreased by 4 million tonnes to 31.5 million tonnes in 2006, as a result of mine closures and the drawing down of phosphate fertilizer stocks in H2 2006. • Chinese production increased by only 1.9 million tonnes to 50.4 million tonnes in 2006, but the average P2O5 content rose considerably. • West European consumption continued on its downward trend, amounting to 6.4 million tonnes in 2006, compared with 7.1 million tonnes in 2005. • International trade also fell by 1 million tonnes to 29.9 million tonnes. Trade has amounted to less than 30 million tonnes in only one other year since 1994, and in 2006 this was mainly the result of a slump in demand due to lower phosphate fertilizer production, and a reduction in export availability. • Chinese exports declined for the third consecutive year in 2006 to around 950,000 tonnes from 2.1 million in 2005. Only the provinces of Guizhou and Hubei now continue to export any significant volumes. • As a result of the low phosphate fertilizer stocks, prices being received for DAP and MAP have increased considerably in early 2007, with DAP fob Tampa realising sales of above $400/t in March, up from around $250/t throughout 2006. DAP and all other phosphate fertilizer prices from other parts of the world are also moving up significantly. • Rock Prices are now expected to move a few dollars higher in most cases as the increases in DAP prices impact the upstream phosphate rock market. The biggest increase compared to our last forecast is expected to come from Morocco, where the high DAP prices will make OCP more reluctant to sell their rock without a significant price hike. As before, however, there is forecast to be a downturn around 2009/2010 due to increased global rock supply, before increases in demand tighten the supply demand balance once again and prices begin another upswing.
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I. World Overview • Global production decreased by 2.6 million tonnes to 166.2 million tonnes in 2006, according to preliminary data, whilst apparent consumption declined to 162.6 million tonnes, compared with 164.9 million tonnes in 2005. This is due to lower production of downstream products as stocks of these products, particularly in the US, were drawn down considerably. • With extremely low stock levels of phosphate fertilizers in most of the producing countries, we are expecting a rebound in phosphate rock demand to 167.5 million tonnes in 2007, with an attendant rise in rock production to 169.4 million tonnes. • With high prices being received for DAP and MAP and global fertilizer stocks at a low ebb, we expect international rock trade to increase once more to 30.9 million tonnes as a direct result of higher demand.
Table I: Global Phosphate Rock Market Overview, 2002-2007 (thousand tonnes) 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006p
2007f
Production
151,196
154,254
162,683
168,868
166,216
169,440
Consumption
149,830
152,234
160,799
164,900
162,560
167,454
Exports
30,175
29,189
30,896
30,881
29,926
30,858
Imports
30,171
29,190
30,895
30,894
29,924
30,858
184,910
190,380
198,454
203,454
199,497
201,868
81.0%
80.0%
81.0%
81.1%
81.5%
83.0%
Mine Capacity Mine Utilization Prices, (US$/t) : Russia 86 BPL, c&f NW Europe
65-70
60-66
62-68
82-85
87-89
89-94
Morocco 72 BPL, fas Casablanca
36-45
36-44
38-48
40-54
43-56
48-60
Jordan 70 BPL, fob Aqaba
36-46
33-45
34-52
37-50
40-52
43-55
• Mine utilization rates rose to 81.5% in 2006, but as stocks are thought to have plummeted in much of the world in H2 2006, increased production is required around the globe. For this reason operating rates are anticipated to rise to 83% in 2007. • Phosphate rock prices were already in the ascendant in the price cycle, with Moroccan 72% BPL rock trading for an average of $50/t by the end of 2006. Due to the high prices being received for ammonium phosphate fertilizers in H1 2007, we are now expecting to see prices from all exporters moving higher over 2007/2008, with a peak on average of at least $1-3/t higher than in our previous forecast.
Executive Summary ii
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II. Prices • Prices continued to move up in 2006, with Moroccan 72% BPL (fas Casablanca) reaching an average of $50/t by the end of the year. • Increasing international scarcity maintained upward pressure on prices, particularly as Chinese exports decreased by half to less than 1 million tonnes in 2006.
Table II: Phosphate Rock Price Forecast (US $/tonne) MOROCCO
JORDAN
Khouribga
Khouribga
Bou-Craa
70 BPL
72 BPL
80 BPL
f.a.s
f.a.s
f.a.s
Casablanca Casablanca Laayoune
EGYPT
TOGO
TUNISIA
68/72 BPL 73/75 BPL 66/68 BPL 79 BPL 60/62 BPL 65/68 BPL
RUSSIA
86 BPL
f.o.b
f.o.b
f.o.b.
f.a.s
f.o.b
f.o.b
C&f NW
Aqaba
Aqaba
Egypt
Kpeme
Sfax
Sfax
Europe
2003
34-42
36-44
44-54
33-45
46-54
20-25
30-38
25-33
31-38
60-66
2004
34-44
38-48
44-56
34-52
48-56
25-30
32-36
25-35
33-44
62-68
2005
38-55
40-54
50-65
37-50
52-65
30-40
35-45
32-38
38-50
82-85
2006
40-55
43-56
54-65
40-52
55-65
33-42
35-47
33-39
39-50
87-89
2007
44-59
48-60
57-69
43-55
57-65
35-44
40-48
33-41
40-51
89-94
2008
42-58
46-60
56-68
42-54
56-66
38-44
40-52
34-40
40-50
88-94
2009
40-54
42-56
53-64
40-50
52-62
36-43
38-50
33-38
40-46
87-90
2010
39-52
40-53
51-62
38-50
49-60
33-40
36-48
32-37
37-42
85-89
2011
38-50
39-52
50-62
37-50
48-57
32-40
32-46
30-37
35-41
83-89
2012
40-50
40-52
51-63
38-50
49-58
32-39
32-46
29-36
34-42
84-89
2013
41-52
42-54
53-60
39-51
50-59
33-40
35-47
31-36
35-43
85-92
2014
42-52
44-56
53-62
41-52
52-60
34-42
36-47
30-38
36-44
86-92
2015
42-53
43-55
54-64
40-52
50-60
35-45
38-47
32-38
37-44
85-91
• Since the last outlook was written, in November 2006, there has been a dramatic increase in prices being realised for downstream phosphate fertilizers. Notably, the price of DAP fob Tampa has moved up by over $100 in the first two months of 2007 to $377 on March 1. • These raised profits are now beginning to be passed on upstream, with the result that rock prices for 2007 are now expected to move up by an average of around $2.5/t, rather than around $1.5/t as forecast in the Ten Year Outlook to 2015. Prices in 2008 will also be a little higher. • In the mid-term, 2009-2012, we have not altered the price forecast and continue to expect a downturn as new capacities come onstream in different parts of the world, loosening the supply/demand balance. • From 2012, prices are expected to begin moving up again as demand grows, and we now expect prices to be on average $1-3 dollars higher compared to our previous forecast during this upswing.
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III. Capacity/Project Developments China • Jingmen Yangfen Zhonglin to build phosphate rock mining and flotation project Jingmen Yangfen Zhonglin Phosphate Rock Industry Co, a joint venture between Hubei Yangfeng Stock Co and Jingmen Zhonglin Phosphate Rock Industry Co, has announced that it is to construct a 1.2 million t/y phosphate ore mining and flotation plant that will utilise low grade phosphate ore and produce around 450,000 t/y of phosphate concentrate. The mine and plant are to be located in Jingmen, Hubei Province, and the rock will supply Hubei Yangfen Stock Co and other local phosphate fertilizer producers from 2010 onwards.
•
CNOOC to build 1.5 million t/y mine in Hubei. Major Chinese petrochemical firm China National Offshore Oil Co (CNOOC) plans to build a 1.5 million t/y phosphate rock mine at the Yichang Shashuping deposit. The exploration and extraction rights have yet to be won by CNOOC, but they already have the support of local government officials in their bid. The rock is to be consumed in phosphate fertilizers production and P4 production in the cities of Yichang and Jingmen in Hubei. This project has not been included in the forecast at present, since the mining rights have not yet been acquired.
Jordan/Egypt – New phosphoric acid joint venture for IFFCO in Jordan Indian fertilizer company IFFCO announced in February 2007 a Memorandum of Understanding with JPMC of Jordan to establish a joint venture with the aim of constructing and operating a 500,000 t/y P2O5 phosphoric acid plant in Jordan. However, in August 2006, IFFCO had come to a very similar arrangement with Egyptian rock producers El Nasr. We find it unlikely that IFFCO are planning to finance and construct two phosphoric acid plants of the same capacity, and so at present we are assuming that only one will be built. Since the Jordanian rock supplies are more reliable and abundant than El Nasr’s are thought to be, we have decided to include the IFFCO/JPMC joint venture in Jordan in our forecast, and we have removed the IFFCO/El Nasr project.
Russia - Yevgen’evskoye apatite deposit to be mined from 2009 Exploration work at the Yevgen’evskoye apatite deposit in the Tyndinsky district of Russia’s Amur region began in October 2006, and it is expected to be complete in 2007. In 2008 a beneficiation plant is to be constructed, and production of 325,000 t/y of phosphate rock is projected to begin in 2009. The project is a joint venture between the Amur authorities and the government of the Chinese border city of Kheikhe. The entire output of the new mining operation is to be transported to Kheikhe, where the Chinese intend to build a downstream phosphate fertilizer plant.
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IV. Supply Preliminary data for 2006 indicate lower production than we had anticipated. It now appears that production decreased in 2006 by 2.4 million tonnes since the previous year to 164.9 million tonnes, due in large part to the drawing down of global phosphate fertilizer stocks and corresponding reduction in fertilizer production.
We now expect the total global output to be in the range of 1-5 million t/y less than we had projected in the last outlook, reaching 194.4 million tonnes by 2015. • North American production fell by 4.4 million tonnes down to 32 million tonnes in 2006 due to the closure of mines in the US and production problems in Agrium’s Kapuskasing mine in Canada. The region is now expected to produce volumes in the range of 31-33 million t/y through to 2015. • The drawing down of phosphate fertilizer producer stocks in the Middle East and in some countries in Africa reduced production there in 2006. African output going forward is also altered by the removal from the forecast of the IFFCO/El Nasr phosphoric acid joint venture in Egypt, which would have increased Egyptian rock production. A new phosphoric acid plant in Jordan will now move up production for the Middle East instead, from 2010. • The FSU’s regional total decreased from 13.3 million tonnes in 2005 to just over 13 million tonnes in 2006 as Russian rock producer Apatit produced around 250,000 fewer tonnes in 2006. As a result, we are now forecasting volumes in the range of 13-15 million t/y to 2015. • In Oceania, lower than expected production data for Australia and Nauru meant that the total output appears to be around 600,000 tonnes less than in our previous forecast, at 2.6 million tonnes. This will remain broadly flat through to the end of the outlook. • Chinese production is now anticipated to be higher over the outlook period due to the announcement of a number of new phosphate projects. This raises East Asian output progressively up to 4.3 million tonnes higher than in the last forecast, at 59.6 million t/y by 2015
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Table III: World Phosphate Rock Production Forecast 2005-2015 (million tonnes) Change 2005 2006p World Total
2007f 2008f
2009f
2010f 2011f
2012f 2013f 2014f
2015f 2005-2015
168.87 166.22 169.44 172.43 175.21 180.22 183.16 185.96 188.68 191.53 194.36
25.49
West Europe
0.82
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
-0.01
Central Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
FSU
13.29
13.04
13.16
13.30
13.41
13.67
13.74
13.71
14.03
14.33
14.62
1.33
Africa
45.80
46.02
46.45
47.40
48.00
47.82
47.12
47.28
48.28
49.44
50.53
4.73
North America
36.40
32.00
32.78
33.25
32.96
33.05
32.00
32.03
31.88
31.97
32.33
-4.08
Central America
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
South America
5.81
6.30
6.76
7.23
8.33
8.98
10.38
11.37
11.77
11.94
12.15
6.35
Middle East
12.79
12.37
12.13
12.14
12.04
14.45
17.01
17.87
17.95
18.19
18.12
5.33
South Asia
1.45
1.57
1.74
1.78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.75
1.77
1.80
1.81
0.36
South East Asia
1.03
1.03
1.36
1.46
1.49
1.52
1.55
1.58
1.62
1.65
1.68
0.65
East Asia
48.61
50.46
51.53
52.29
53.45
55.17
55.84
56.66
57.63
58.59
59.56
10.95
Oceania
2.87
2.64
2.74
2.79
2.93
2.93
2.86
2.90
2.93
2.82
2.75
-0.12
V. Demand The primary use of phosphate rock is in the production of phosphate fertilizers, and fertilizer demand is driven by crop prices and demand. Table IV shows the latest global cereal crops statistics from the FAO.
Table IV: World Crop Situation - Wheat, Coarse Grains and Rice (million tonnes) 2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006p
2006/2007f
Production
1909
1831.0
1892.0
2074.1
2048.7
1993.9
Consumption
1929
1928.0
1960.0
2023.8
2038.3
2059.7
574
484.0
417.0
467.7
469.0
402.9
30%
25%
21%
23%
23%
20%
Stocks Stocks/Consumption ratio Source: FAO Food Outlook, December 2006
• Preliminary data indicate that in the 2006/2007 agricultural year the stocks/consumption ratio will fall to the lowest level for six years, at just 20%. Stocks are now expected to be 14 million tonnes less than in the last estimation. • Crop production in 2006/2007 is now anticipated to be around 23 million tonnes lower due to adverse weather conditions in several countries, and consumption estimates have also been revised downwards by around 2 million tonnes. • The tightening of the crop supply/demand balance, together with the significantly growing demand for maize and soybeans in the biofuels industry is already putting upward pressure on prices, and this is expected to continue throughout 2007.
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Table V: World Phosphate Rock Demand Forecast, 2005-2015 (million tonnes) Change 2005 2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2005-2015 World Total
164.90 162.56 167.45 170.97 174.58 179.81 182.83 185.70 188.53 191.40 194.31
29.41
West Europe
7.07
6.42
6.34
6.30
6.30
6.30
6.29
6.29
6.28
6.28
6.29
-0.78
Central Europe
2.91
2.87
2.93
2.94
2.97
3.00
3.00
3.02
3.04
3.06
3.07
0.17
FSU
12.30
12.23 12.45
12.68 12.83 12.86
12.84 12.84
12.99 13.16 13.36
1.07
Africa
24.99
23.96 24.91
26.17 27.75 27.92
27.53 27.66
28.81 29.67 30.69
5.70
North America
39.00
35.07 35.48
35.93 35.75 35.81
34.79 34.84
34.92 35.37 35.71
-3.29
Central America
0.95
0.92
0.95
0.98
1.00
0.99
1.01
1.05
0.10
South America
7.06
8.16
8.46
8.65
8.73
8.97
9.77 10.47
10.68 10.78 11.02
3.96
Middle East
7.08
6.95
7.10
7.17
7.69 10.24
12.96 13.97
14.08 14.20 14.08
7.00
South Asia
6.87
7.33
8.17
8.46
8.66
8.70
8.73
8.77
8.80
8.84
8.88
2.01
South East Asia
3.98
3.52
3.81
3.90
3.94
3.95
4.00
4.04
4.07
4.12
4.16
0.19
60.15 61.14 62.17
13.31
East Asia
48.86
Oceania
3.85
51.83 53.46 3.29
3.38
54.43 55.56 57.58 3.35
3.40
1.00
58.35 59.17
3.49
3.56
3.63
1.02
3.69
1.04
3.75
3.82
-0.03
• In 2006, phosphate rock demand decreased by 2.3 million tonnes to 162.6 million tonnes, which is 6.1 million tonnes less than we had forecast in the last outlook. • The main factor driving this drop was the substantial drawing down of phosphate fertilizer stocks in H2 2006. • The most significant example of fertilizer stock draw-downs occurred in North America, where rock consumption declined by almost 4 million tonnes to just over 35 million tonnes in 2006. • East Asia is the only region that we have revised upwards each year throughout the demand forecast, and volumes are now expected to be 1.0-4.5 million t/y higher through to 2015 due to a number of new projects being announced in China. By the end of the outlook period, we anticipate that demand will have reached around 58.4 million t/y. • The new data indicate that African consumption in 2006 was around 1 million tonnes less than forecast. This is partially due to Morocco, as we had not anticipated that OCP would make such a large increase to its rock inventories. In 2006, almost 3 million tonnes of rock, amounting to 10% of the total output, was added to the stockpile. Tunisian rock producer GCT also added around half a million tonnes to their own inventories. Additionally, Egyptian consumption has been revised downwards from 2010 since we have removed the IFFCO/El Nasr phosphoric acid joint venture from the forecast. • Apparent consumption in West Europe was also less than expected, as France and Belgium imported less in 2006 due to reduced demand and availability.
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VI. Trade Preliminary 2006 data indicate a decrease in international trade volumes of around 1 million tonnes in 2006, to 29.9 million tonnes. This occurrence is likely to be directly related to the reduction in fertilizer stocks throughout the supply chain. It also reflects the higher prices being received for rock in 2006, and continuing supply problems.
Table VI: Phosphate Rock Imports Forecast, 2005-2015 (million tonnes) Change 2005
2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2005-2015
World Total
30.89
29.92
30.86 30.78
31.21 31.54 31.88
32.27
32.58
33.09
33.42
2.52
West Europe
6.24
5.62
5.54
5.50
5.50
5.49
5.48
5.48
5.47
5.47
5.48
-0.77
Central Europe
2.91
2.87
2.93
2.94
2.97
3.00
3.00
3.02
3.04
3.06
3.07
0.17
FSU
2.22
2.20
2.15
2.20
2.22
2.19
2.20
2.23
2.23
2.23
2.23
0.01
Africa
0.03
0.16
0.10
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.03
North America
2.62
2.50
2.70
2.68
2.79
2.76
2.78
2.80
3.03
3.40
3.38
0.76
Central America
0.95
0.92
0.95
0.98
1.00
0.99
1.01
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.05
0.10
South America
1.67
1.87
1.71
1.44
1.05
1.12
1.22
1.33
1.39
1.42
1.55
-0.12
Middle East
1.79
1.76
1.89
1.94
2.48
2.58
2.65
2.72
2.71
2.71
2.73
0.94
South Asia
5.43
5.76
6.43
6.68
6.86
6.88
6.89
7.02
7.03
7.04
7.07
1.65
South East Asia
2.97
2.54
2.55
2.54
2.55
2.53
2.55
2.56
2.55
2.57
2.59
-0.39
East Asia
2.36
2.32
2.38
2.34
2.26
2.41
2.51
2.52
2.52
2.56
2.61
0.25
Oceania
1.70
1.41
1.52
1.46
1.46
1.52
1.53
1.54
1.54
1.55
1.60
-0.10
• Trade volumes around the world are now forecast to be 1.4-2.4 million tonnes less than we had previously expected, going forward. • The most significant revision of import figures is to the West European forecast, where lower apparent consumption in Belgium and Spain according to preliminary data has resulted in a downward revision of 0.7-0.8 million tonnes going forward. • South Asian imports are also 0.5 million tonnes lower than previously forecast, due to a more pessimistic view of production going forward at IFFCO’s phosphoric acid plant at Paradip. • In South America, we have now decided to include a new 119,000 t/y phosphoric acid plant in Venezuela in our forecast, as well as a 200,000 t/y expansion to the existing plant operated by Pequiven from 2010. Domestic rock production is not expected to be sufficient to provide for them both, and we expect the shortfall to be supplied by imported rock. • Canada’s phosphate consumers will rely entirely on imported rock from 2013, when the only mine in the country stops production, and so we have raised North American imports by 800,000t/y from 2014.
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Table VII: Phosphate Rock Exports Forecast, 2005-2015 (million tonnes) Change 2005 World Total
2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2005-2015
30.88
29.93
30.86
30.78
31.21 31.54 31.88 32.27 32.58 33.09 33.42
FSU
3.26
2.82
2.85
2.81
Africa
17.75
18.61
19.62
19.80
South America
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.65
1.13
1.83
2.23
2.48
2.58
2.68
2.68
Middle East
7.07
6.69
6.92
6.91
6.83
6.79
6.70
6.62
6.58
6.70
6.77
-0.30
South East Asia
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
East Asia
2.11
0.95
0.45
0.20
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-2.11
Oceania
0.70
0.80
0.90
0.95
1.05
1.05
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.80
0.75
0.05
2.80
3.00
3.10
3.10
3.27
3.40
2.54
3.48
0.22
19.63 19.47 19.20 19.27 19.20 19.50 19.64
1.90
• The biggest change made to our forecast due to the preliminary 2006 data has been in the Middle East, where lower than expected Jordanian exports, due to transport problems between the mines and the port of Aqaba, have contributed to exports moving down to 6.7 million tonnes. We now forecast Middle Eastern exports to be 0.6-0.8 million t/y lower, at around 7 million t/y. • Chinese exports decreased as expected, to around 950,000 tonnes. We continue to forecast that exports will end in 2009. • Exports from Russia, Oceania and Africa were all lower than expected in 2006. In the case of the two former, it is due to lower production than we were anticipating, bringing exports. In Africa, this situation is partly to do with lower output, but mainly as a result of stockpiling by Morocco and Tunisia. Between them, these two countries added 3.5 million tonnes to their inventories in 2006. • The only region where exports were higher than expected was South East Asia, where Vietnam has begun exporting rock across its border to China. We are now expecting the country to continue exporting around 100,000 t/y to China through to 2015.
VII. Forecast Sensitivities Over the remainder of the outlook period to 2015, we must stress that the forecast could be altered by a number of factors:
i. Geopolitical Events • Global financial markets lost some of their value during share price slides in February 2007. Though most analysts have described this as an anomaly, or a price correction, some are predicting a crash in 2007, and if so, the devaluation of the dollar would have significant consequences for the forecast, particularly our price forecast and the international trade outlook. • In addition to the ongoing conflict in Iraq, and the general threat of terrorist attacks throughout the Middle East and North Africa, the possibility of a military confrontation between the US and Iran is present and this would have serious implications for the price of oil, and for global economic stability.
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ii. Environmental Issues • Since phosphate fertilizers are the primary end-product of phosphate rock, and demand for fertilizers in turn is driven by crop production, any serious drought or other natural disaster affecting global plantings would significantly reduce demand for phosphate rock. • The disposal of phosphogypsum, a by-product of phosphoric acid production, remains a contentious issue in the US, Australia and West Europe, hampering the ability of phosphoric acid producers to expand their operations due to pressure from local governments and environmental groups. It also makes the acquisition of mining rights more difficult, and if this concern were to spread to other countries it could slow down the expansion of global phosphate rock capacity, reducing supply. • The eutrophication of slow-moving surface waters is an environmental problem caused by an excess of nitrogen and phosphorus in the water. In some parts of the world, notably the US and most of West Europe, phosphate-based laundry detergents have been restricted or banned in reaction to this, but it has been noted that phosphate fertilizers are a far greater source of this contamination. It is possible that individual governments might take legislative steps to reduce the use of phosphate fertilizers, which would have a negative effect on our demand forecast.
Authors Please direct any comments or queries relating to the content of this issue of the Six Monthly Update to the Phosphate Rock Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service to 2015 to:
Vivienne Haley
Andy Jung
Consultant
Senior Consultant
Tel: +44 20 7903 2182
Tel: +56 2 231 3900 Ext. 13
Email:
[email protected]
Email:
[email protected]
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Points to Watch Mexico - Offshore phosphate mining exploration licence granted It has been announced that a US company called PhosMex Corporation has been granted a concession lasting 50 years by the Mexican government to explore and mine an offshore phosphate deposit in the Pacific Ocean. The deposit is situated at an average depth of 40 metres in the southern Baja California waters, ten nautical miles west of San Juanico. Based on tests that were conducted in the 1980’s, it is thought to contain at least 250 million tonnes of 4-20% P2O5 phosphate ore. PhosMex now intend to begin collecting their own ore samples from the deposit and analysing the results. They are currently looking for a partner in the venture that can offer both capital and technical expertise, and it is thought that the company are interested in this role being filled by one of the US phosphate fertilizer firms.
This would not be the first time that underwater phosphate deposits have been considered for exploitation. In the 1980’s there was interest in another submarine deposit located in the underwater plateau of Chatham Rise, off the east coast of New Zealand, which was judged to contain around 100 million tonnes of phosphate reserves at depths of up to 400 metres. Due to the calculated operating costs, and the limitations of mining technology at the time, this project was never moved forward.
It remains to be seen whether the Mexican project will go ahead. The high cost of extraction remains a problem here, although there have been some advances in the technology of underwater dredging. In addition, rising South American demand for phosphate fertilizers is tightening the supply/demand balance, increasing the likelihood of the sustained period of high rock prices that would be sufficient to make this project economically viable.
At present we are not certain whether this venture will become a reality but we will continue to monitor the situation, since success here would likely lead to similar projects being attempted in other parts of the world.
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Chapter 1 - Recent Market Developments 1.1 World Overview According to preliminary 2006 data, production, apparent consumption and international trade of phosphate rock decreased since 2005, in spite of a strong increase in phosphate fertilizer demand in most parts of the world. As ammonia prices moved up in H2 2006, increasing production costs and prices, downstream buyers responded by reducing phosphate fertilizer stocks to unusually low levels. This move was matched by producers who reduced output of DAP and MAP (accomplished in part by Mosaic’s capacity closures), which in turn prompted a fall in demand for phosphate rock.
However, recent developments indicate a likely recovery in 2007. The level of stock reduction in 2006 was such that downstream buyers must get back in the market and producers no longer have any substantial volumes of product in inventory to sell and ease the current market tightness. In North America, this situation caused panic buying in early 2007, which put considerable upward pressure on prices and by March, there were reports of DAP cargoes from the US selling for over $400/t in Central America. Prices from other producers around the world also moved up in response. With higher margins now being realised, we believe that producers will maximize downstream phosphoric acid and fertilizer production and we expect to see a rebound in phosphate rock production, consumption and international trade in 2007.
Table 1.1 Global Phosphate Rock Market Overview, 2002-2007 (thousand tonnes) 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006p
2007f
Production
151,196
154,254
162,683
168,868
166,216
169,440
Consumption
149,830
152,234
160,799
164,900
162,560
167,454
30,175
29,189
30,896
30,881
29,926
30,858
Exports Imports Mine Capacity Mine Utilization
30,171
29,190
30,895
30,894
29,924
30,858
184,910
190,380
198,454
203,454
199,497
201,868
81.0%
80.0%
81.0%
81.1%
81.5%
83.0%
Prices, (US$/t) : Russia 86 BPL, c&f NW Europe
65-70
60-66
62-68
82-85
87-89
89-94
Morocco 72 BPL, fas Casablanca
36-45
36-44
38-48
40-54
43-56
48-60
Jordan 70 BPL, fob Aqaba
36-46
33-45
34-52
37-50
40-52
43-55
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• Production decreased by 1.6% to 166.2 million tonnes in 2006, from 168.9 million tonnes in 2005. A significant amount of the global decline occurred in North America, where US production moved down by just over 4 million tonnes to 31.5 million tonnes due to mine closures and fertilizer stocks being drawn down. Problems at Agrium’s Kapuskasing mine also reduced Canadian production by 353,000 tonnes to 535,000 tonnes in 2006. • Apparent consumption of phosphate rock declined by 2.3 million tonnes to 162.6 million tonnes in 2006, as fertilizer production shrunk worldwide, particularly in North America. Rock consumption fell in all regions expect for South America and South and East Asia. • Lower volumes being exported by China, Russia and Jordan moved international trade levels down by 1 million tonnes to 29.9 million tonnes in 2006. Chinese exports fell to under 1 million tonnes for the first time since 1995 after a new 10% export tariff came into force in November 2006, further depressing trade volumes. Jordanian and Russian rock exports were reduced as a result of transportation problems and lower demand in some regions, particularly West Europe. • Crop prices have inflated due to declining crop/stock ratios as the increasing world population and the rapid expansion in biofuel production capacity place even greater strain on the supply/demand balance. Maize prices have increased the most, up by 50%, or almost $1/Bu between August 2006 and December 2006. • Rock prices are almost certain to have increased over the last six months as production fell and trade volumes declined. The prospects for sellers in 2007 are even more optimistic, as higher DAP prices set the mood for higher upstream phosphate rock prices and as the international supply/demand balance continues to tighten.
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1.2 Prices The price of downstream phosphate fertilizers in the US has increased dramatically since the publication of the Ten Year Outlook to 2015, with DAP selling for $330-350/t fob Tampa at the end of February 2007, from just $275-279/t fob Tampa one month previously. After more than 18 months of virtually flat growth, the rise in US prices has been attributed to higher corn prices due to the surge in bioethanol demand, and panic buying when it became apparent that stocks throughout the production and distribution chain were extremely low. This situation has now begun to prompt higher DAP prices in the rest of the world as well.
Diagram 1.1: DAP weekly prices November 2005-February 2007
US$/t
fob bulk Tampa/US Gulf std fob bulk Jordan
fob bulk Russia (Baltic) fob bulk Morocco
400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220
N ov
-0 D 5 ec -0 5 Ja n06 Fe b0 M 6 ar -0 6 A pr -0 M 6 ay -0 6 Ju n06 Ju l-0 6 A ug -0 6 Se p06 O ct -0 6 N ov -0 D 6 ec -0 6 Ja n07 Fe b07
200
Phosphate rock prices have been on the increase since 2003, as the supply/demand balance has tightened and as rock exports have become available from a decreasing number of producers. This recent upswing in downstream phosphate prices is expected to result in rock producers bringing rock prices up in line with the higher margins being realised for products like DAP, and accentuating the peak of the rock price cycle, which we still expect to occur during 2007/2008.
At the close of 2006, Moroccan 72% BPL rock was approaching $50/t on average (fas Casablanca). Aside from some trading of apatite on the Moscow Stock Exchange by Apatit, for an average price of around $71/t, the price of Russian rock has remained as we thought at around $87-89/t (c&f NW Europe).
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Chinese rock increased in price dramatically over 2006, moving up from around $45-65/t fob China for 70/72% BPL to $65-85/t within one year. The removal of the VAT export rebate and a further 10% government tariff on exports, and higher delivered prices to Asia from other traditional suppliers like OCP and JPMC are the main reasons behind the price rise, with the result that in 2006 annual exports fell to under 1 million tonnes for the first time since 1995.
Diagram 1.2: Average Moroccan 72% BPL Phosphate Rock Price
US $/t 60
50
40
30
20
10
0 1980
Chapter 1 - 4
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
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1.3 Capacity/Acquisitions 1.3.1 Phosphate Rock Mining 1.3.1.1 China - Jingmen Yangfen Zhonglin Phosphate Rock Industry Co to build phosphate rock mining and flotation project Jingmen Yangfen Zhonglin Phosphate Rock Industry Co, a joint venture between Hubei Yangfeng Stock Co and Jingmen Zhonglin Phosphate Rock Industry Co, is to construct a 1.2 million t/y phosphate ore mining and flotation plant that will utilise low grade phosphate ore and produce around 450,000 t/y of phosphate concentrate. The mine and plant are to be located in Jingmen, Hubei Province, and the rock will supply Hubei Yangfen Stock Co and other local phosphate fertilizer producers.
We are including this mine from 2010 onwards, at a capacity of 450,000 t/y of phosphate rock concentrate.
– CNOOC intends to begin new mining project in Hubei China National Offshore Oil Company, one of the five major Chinese petrochemical firms, began discussions in January 2007 with the local authorities in Hubei province over a phosphate rock joint venture. Hubei officials have agreed to support CNOOC’s bid for exploration rights to the Yichang Shashuping deposit, which has an estimated 120 million tonnes of phosphate rock reserves. CNOOC plans to use the experience and technology of their subsidiary company, Hubei Dayukuo Chemical Co, to establish a new 1.5 million t/y rock mine and 1.5 million t/y beneficiation plant at the Shashuping deposit. The rock will be used to supply new fertilizer production facilities in Jingmen, Hubei, including a 300,000 t/y P2O5 phosphoric acid plant and a 600,000 t/y ammonium phosphate unit. The company also plans to construct furnaces for elemental phosphorus production and downstream industrial phosphates units in Yichang.
Since the company has yet to secure exploration licences for the Shashuping deposit, we feel that the project is insufficiently developed to merit inclusion in our forecast for the moment.
1.3.1.2 Egypt – El Watania to increase capacity to 600,000 tonnes in 2007 Egyptian phosphate rock mining company El Watania expects to increase capacity at their East Sabaiya mining site from around 100,000 tonnes in 2006 to around 600,000 tonnes from 2007. The company began mining last year, and produced 60,000 tonnes of rock for local consumers. El Watania’s capacity is expected to increase again to around 1 million t/y from 2008, as capacity at the East Sabaiya site moves up to 800,000 t/y and mining begins at around 200,000 t/y at the company’s other site, Umm Tinidbah. In anticipation of the growing capacity, the company now intends to begin trading internationally.
The forecast capacity figure for Egypt has been increased by 1 million t/y from 2008 in light of this development.
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1.3.1.3 Russia – Far Eastern apatite deposit to be mined from 2009 Exploration work at the Yevgen’evskoye apatite deposit in the Tyndinsky district of Russia’s Amur region began in October 2006, and it is expected to be complete in 2007. In 2008 a beneficiation plant is to be constructed, and production of 325,000 t/y of phosphate rock is projected to begin in 2009.
The Amur region borders China, and the project is a joint venture between the Amur authorities and the government of the Chinese border city of Kheikhe. The entire output of the new mining operation is to be transported to Kheikhe, where the Chinese intend to build a downstream phosphate fertilizer plant. We have increased Russian capacity in our forecast by 325,000 t/y from 2009.
1.3.1.4 Canada – Agrium’s Kapuskasing mine reserves downgraded Agrium’s Kapuskasing mine in Canada is now expected to stop producing phosphate rock in 2013, rather than in 2019 as was previously estimated. Agrium experienced rising quality problems with the ore from Kapuskasing in 2006, causing reduced production, and a drilling programme intended to re-evaluate the reserves concluded that the mine would not be economically viable beyond 2013. We have removed the mine from the capacity forecast from 2014, and moved Canadian production to zero from that year. We are tentatively speculating that Agrium will replace output from Kapuskasing with imports, and so we have altered our trade forecasts accordingly.
1.3.1.5 South Africa – Foskor improve mining efficiency South African phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers Foskor have undertaken to improve their rock mining efficiency with the introduction of a new system, which entails reducing the time taken to change shifts at their mining operations from 1 hour down to 20 minutes. In a trial of the system, conducted between February and May 2006, they were found to produce an average of 7400 tonnes more phosphate ore per day than under the previous method.
Foskor have also identified a lack of truck capacity as another cause of ore shortages at the phosphoric acid plants, but no plan has been mentioned of additional truck purchases.
Foskor aim to produce an additional 6,000 tonnes of ore per day from the new system, which was introduced in September 2006, and this would have the effect of raising production by 660,000 t/y. We have cautiously decided to increase production for South Africa by around 100,000 t/y, though we may find that we have been too pessimistic here.
1.3.1.6 Sri Lanka – Government approves development of Eppawala for SSP The Sri Lankan government has approved plans for SSP production to begin in the country, using rock from the Eppawala phosphate deposit. The government calculates that by using domestically produced SSP instead of imported TSP as fertilizer, they could save Rs900 million (US$8.29 million) per year.
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However, since the deposit was discovered in 1971, various plans for downstream phosphate fertilizer production have been proposed on a number of occasions without result, and as this particular venture remains at a very early stage of planning, this news will not affect our forecast.
1.3.1.7 Uzbekistan – Upgrade of ore washing units complete at Navoi deposit The revamping of beneficiation facilities at the Navoi Ore Mining and Metallurgical Plant (NGMK) Kyzylkum phosphate plant has been completed, and the operation now has the capacity to produce 400,000 t/y of washed phosphate rock and 200,000 t/y of ground phosphate rock. The new washing facility was in the process of being commissioned in January 2007, and eventually this rock will be used to supply local phosphates producers JSC Ammophos, JSC Qoqo Superfosfat Complex and the Samarkand Chemical Plant. We were previously aware of the renovation work, and so this does not affect our forecast.
1.3.1.8 Russia – Gazprom dispute NWPC’s extraction rights for Oleny-Ruchey After Acron subsidiary North West Phosphorus Company’s successful bid for the mining rights to the Oleny-Ruchey deposit in the Kola Peninsula, the company announced that they would prepare for the mine to be commissioned in 2010.
The other two companies bidding for the tender were PhosAgro subsidiary Apatit, and Gazprom subsidiary Gaz-Oil. It now appears that Gazprom are taking an ever greater interest in the fertilizer industry, and in December 2006 the company formally complained that the Oleny Ruchey mining licence was unfairly awarded to NWPC. They accuse the government body that had supervised the auction, the Federal Agency of Sub-soil Use, of breaking the law by demanding a deposit payment of RB120 million (US$4.6 million) from each bidder prior to the auction, and have filed an application with the Moscow Arbitrage Court for the results of the tender to be annulled.
We expect the Acron subsidiary to defend this case vigorously, but in any event we believe that whichever side ends up with control of the deposit will exploit it in much the same way as NWPC had planned to do. For the moment we have not amended our forecast, though a drawn out legal battle could lead to delays in developing the resource.
1.3.2 Acquisitions 1.3.2.1 Brazil – Contentious proposal for a merger between Fosfertil and Bunge Plans were announced in December 2006 for a merger between the Brazilian fertilizer companies Bunge and Fosfertil. The two companies claim that this merger, to be called Fosfertil Fertilizantes SA, is to enable them to avoid reliance on imports and allow them to compete with the major importers into Brazil for the local market.
However, some of Fosfertil’s shareholders oppose the move, and Fertibras, the Brazilian subsidiary of Norway’s Yara, has asked Brazil’s anti-trust body, CADE, to put a stop to the plans. Fertibras argues that if the merger were permitted, over 90% of Brazilian phosphate rock reserves and total control over
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Fosfertil, the largest nitrogen and phosphate producer in Brazil, would be in the possession of Bunge. In view of this we expect that there will be robust opposition to the move from rival fertilizer producers and minority shareholders, and so it remains to be seen whether the plans will go ahead.
1.3.2.2 Russia – PhosAgro loses 20% of Apatit to the Russian Government In February 2007, the Russian government successfully reacquired 20% of PhosAgro’s shares in the phosphate mining company Apatit after a court ruled that the shares had been illegally privatised by the jailed oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 1994. It is not known how much of Apatit now remains in the possession of PhosAgro. In court, the company’s legal representatives claimed that it owned only 30%, but others believe that it may have been as much as 85%, through a variety of offshore subsidiary companies.
This ruling is now seen to have strengthened the position of rival Russian fertilizer company Acron, who own a 10.3% stake in Apatit, as the company could potentially form a blocking minority with the Russian government, providing some leverage in the difficult price negotiations over apatite supplies that take place between Acron and Apatit each year.
1.3.2.3 Pakistan - Lyallpur Chemicals & Fertilizers Pakistan’s state-owned fertilizer company Lyallpur Chemicals & Fertilizers (LCFL) has been bought by Al Hamd Chemicals for Rs280.2 million (US$4.5 million). Al Hamd was the successful bidder for 100% of the company’s shares, and the deal was finalised in early February 2007.
LCFL have the capacity to produce 72,000 t/y of SSP and 30,000 t/y of sulphuric acid.
– Hazara Phosphates The process of selling at least 90% of the last Pakistani state-owned fertilizer company continues as the deadline for applications to bid passed on January 15th 2007. There are now seven companies that have pre-qualified to bid, and one that has already submitted its bid money ahead of the bidding round.
Hazara Phosphates has the capacity to produce 90,000t/y of granular SSP and 30,000 t/y of sulphuric acid.
1.3.3 Integrated Mining and Phosphoric Acid Projects 1.3.3.1 Jordan – JPMC and IFFCO joint venture to produce phosphoric acid Jordanian phosphate rock mining company JPMC and Indian fertilizer producer IFFCO have established a joint venture to build a new phosphoric acid plant, with IFFCO providing 52% of the capital and JPMC supplying the rest. The plant is to have a capacity of 500,000 t/y P2O5, together with an integrated 1.5 million t/y sulphuric acid unit, and it is to be situated near JPMC’s Eshidiya mining site. The entire phosphoric acid output is expected to be shipped to IFFCO’s fertilizer operations in India.
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This development is expected to increase Jordanian rock production by 1.1 million t/y from 2010, when the plant is anticipated to come onstream, and by 2015, production of rock will have moved up by 1.8 million t/y.
With the announcement of this project, doubts are now being cast over the future of IFFCO’s previously agreed joint venture with El Nasr Mining Co of Egypt.
1.3.3.2 Egypt – El Nasr and IFFCO phosphoric acid joint venture in jeopardy IFFCO and El Nasr Mining Co established the joint venture, Indo-Egyptian Fertilizer Co (IEFC), in August 2006 to construct a 500,000 t/y P2O5 phosphoric acid plant near Edfu in Egypt. Despite their recently announced JPMC joint venture to build a phosphoric acid plant in Jordan of an identical size and similar timing, IFFCO insists that the Egyptian project will go ahead. A meeting to secure the financing was scheduled to take place in January 2007, but was postponed to March 2007.
However, considering the difficulties of financing and over-supply, we do not believe that both of the joint ventures will go ahead. On the basis that Jordan has more abundant rock supplies and a better quality of phosphate ore than that belonging to El Nasr, we have decided to include the JPMC project in our forecast and remove the IEFC venture.
1.3.3.3 China – Anhui Liuguo acquire Shusongshan mine and plan purified phosphoric acid plant In January 2007 it was reported that Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co had bought Shusongshan phosphate rock mine in Anhui province, and were planning to increase capacity there from 300,000 t/y in 2007 to 800,000 t/y by 2008. Most of the rock is intended to feed the company’s 1 million t/y DAP operations, but some of it is intended for a new 80,000 t/y P2O5 purified wet-process phosphoric acid plant. The company is hoping to gain some assistance from European industrial phosphates producers in developing the technology for such a plant, as almost all industrial phosphates production in China uses thermal phosphoric acid. At present, only two or three Chinese companies possess the technology for purified wet process phosphoric acid production.
In October 2006, Anhui Liuguo acquired a 15% stake in Hubei Yichang Mingzhu Phosphorus Chemical Co, in a move that we expect is linked to Mingzhu’s exploration and extraction rights to 65 million tonnes of phosphate reserves in Hubei province. Anhui Liuguo are thought to produce around 900,000 t/y of DAP, which would require around 1.4 million t/y of 30% P2O5 phosphate rock. We have increased the capacity of Anhui from 100,000 t/y in 2006 to 300,000 t/y in 2007 and 800,000 t/y from 2008.
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1.3.4 Phosphoric Acid Production 1.3.4.1 China - Hubei Sanxin Co to build 400,000 t/y thermal phosphoric acid plant In January 2007 it was announced that Hubei Sanxin Co had been granted official approval to build a 400,000 t/y P2O5 kiln process thermal phosphoric acid plant in Hubei. Unlike other industrial phosphoric acid projects, this plant is being designed to utilise very low-grade rock with a minimum of 12% P2O5, and the company has already built a 4,000 t/y demonstration facility to test and develop the new technology. The plant will also produce defluorinated TCP. When it comes on stream in 2010, it is expected to produce enough acid to require 1.2 million t/y of low grade phosphate rock.
- Hubei New Yangfeng to begin 2nd phase of capacity expansion Hubei New Yangfeng Chemical Fertilizer Co are about to begin construction of the second phase of their capacity expansion. The first phase, which was completed in October 2005, included a 500,000 t/y MAP plant and a 250,000 t/y P2O5 phosphoric acid plant. The second phase is set to be commissioned in 2010, and amongst other things it will increase the company’s phosphoric acid capacity to 350,000 t/y P2O5, and add a 500,000 t/y NPK plant to their assets. This expansion will consume another 330,000 t/y of phosphate rock, if operated at 100% capacity.
- Yicheng Longxiang Phosphate Chemical Co Yicheng Longxiang, based in Yicheng city in Hubei province, are to build a new 60,000 t/y SSP production line, to add to its current capacity of 50,000 t/y. When the line is commissioned in 2007, the plant will require a further 38,000 t/y of phosphate rock.
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1.4. Phosphate Rock Demand/Trade Since roughly 85% of the phosphate rock mined around the world is used to produce chemical fertilizers, global food stock ratios and crop prices have a major influence on trends in rock demand. We examine the world crop situation, demand for phosphate fertilizers and also international phosphate rock trade in this section.
1.4.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Demand 1.4.1.1 Crop Demand, World Stocks and Prices The forecast for global cereal crop production over 2006/2007 has been lowered by over 23 million tonnes in the latest estimation, with output now expected to amount to less than 2 billion tonnes. The forecast for consumption has also been reduced, but only by around 2.3 million tonnes. Stocks are now expected to fall to less than 403 million tonnes, almost 14 million tonnes less than had been previously calculated, and more than 66 million tonnes less than the 2005/2006 agricultural year. This new evaluation indicates increased pressure on the stocks/consumption ratio though it remains, as in the last assessment, at 20% for the year ending 2007.
Table 1.2: World Crop Situation - Wheat, Coarse Grains and Rice (million tonnes) 2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006p
2006/2007f
Production
1831.0
1892.0
2074.1
2048.7
1993.9
Consumption
1928.0
1960.0
2023.8
2038.3
2059.7
484.0
417.0
467.7
469.0
402.9
25%
21%
23%
23%
20%
Stocks Stocks/Consumption ratio Source: FAO Food Outlook, December 2006
The changes to the forecast have been largely due to lower production and stocks of wheat than expected, due to: • Unusually high temperatures and dry weather in summer in Europe • A severe drought in much of Australia throughout the growing period • Reduced plantings in Brazil due to economic problems and a drought in Argentina • Difficult weather conditions in the US and Russia in planting regions
Table 1.2 clearly shows that in the 2006/2007 agricultural year, production is expected to be lower, consumption is expected to be higher, stocks are down and the stocks/consumption ratio is at its tightest for over ten years. The main reason has been the increased uptake – largely driven by increased ethanol production - and reduced production of maize.
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Diagram 1.3: Cereal & Oilseed Prices Move Up, Wheat and Maize at Ten Year Highs
Price Received by Farmers, US Average - $/Bu
12
10
8
Soybeans 6
Wheat 4
Maize
2
Source: USDA 0
Jan '96
Jan '97
Jan '98
Jan '99
Jan '00
Jan '01
Jan '02
Jan '03
Jan '04
Jan '05
Jan '06
Jan-07
In Diagram 1.3, we can see how prices received by US farmers for their crops have begun to climb since September 2006. As we discussed earlier, declining crop stock ratios are not the only factor. The rapid expansion in biofuels production capacity in recent years has also acted to inflate prices. This is reflected in the fact that maize prices are seeing the largest increases, up by 50%, or almost $1/Bu between August 2006 and December 2006. In view of this development, it has been reported that US planting intentions reflect a switch away from cotton, soy and wheat crops over to more P-intensive maize for the 2007/2008 season.
1.4.1.2 Phosphate Fertilizer Demand •
In 2006, phosphate fertilizer demand was estimated to have been 41.61 million tonnes P2O5, a 1.9% increase compared to 2005.
•
The global compound average growth rate for phosphate fertilizer demand from 2005 to 2015 is 1.9%.
•
The strongest compound annual growth rate to 2015, of 3.4%, is expected to be in the Former Soviet Union. South America and South Asia are also anticipated to experience high demand growth rates of 2.9%, due primarily to Brazil and India.
•
Only West Europe’s demand is set to decrease, at a rate of 0.9% per annum.
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Diagram 1.4: Global Phosphate Fertilizer Demand million tonnes P2O5 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006p
1.4.2 Phosphate Rock Imports 1.4.2.1 World Situation Global rock trade decreased to 29.9 million tonnes in 2006, according to preliminary data, as a combination of lower import demand (in part a reaction to higher rock prices) and reduced phosphate rock availability pushed trade lower. •
The country that saw the biggest increase in imports was India, increasing from 4.8 million t/y in 2004 and 2005 up to 5.3 million tonnes in 2006.
•
In spite of a reduction in capacity of over 6 million tonnes to 36.1 million tonnes between 2005 and 2006, imports into the US actually decreased by around 200,000 tonnes to 2.4 million tonnes, due to several plant closures and operating troubles at a few sites.
•
China imported phosphate rock in 2006 for the first time since 1993. Buyers from Guangdong and Yunnan provinces purchased a total of around 82,000 tonnes in 2006 from Vietnam and Egypt.
1.4.3 Phosphate Rock Exports 1.4.3.1 World Situation Exports decreased to around 29.9 million tonnes in 2006 as volumes from the FSU, the Middle East and East Asia slumped. Africa and Oceania were the only exporting regions in the world that increased exports from 2005 to 2006.
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Diagram 1.5 illustrates the contributions of the top five exporters in 2006, compared to their volumes in 2005. The decline in the ‘other’ category is primarily attributable to another abrupt reduction in Chinese exports. The amount of rock sent out of China in 2006 totalled 950,000 tonnes, compared to over 2.1 million tonnes in 2005.
Diagram 1.5: Top Five Exporters, 2005 & 2006 2005
2006
million tonnes
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Morocco
Jordan
Russia
Syria
Algeria
Others
1.4.3.2 China – Exports decrease significantly
Diagram 1.6: Chinese Phosphate Rock Exports, 2000-2006 million tonnes
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000
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2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006p
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As noted earlier, the main development in phosphate rock exports in the last few months has been another considerable fall in the volume of Chinese exports compared to previous years. As Diagram 1.6 shows, preliminary 2006 figures place Chinese rock exports at less than 1 million tonnes. We have stated in the previous outlook that the export of phosphate rock from this country is set to end by 2010, and the latest data seems to confirm our estimate.
The primary reasons for the swift decline are detailed below: •
Demand in China is increasing faster than production, and many domestic phosphate fertilizer manufacturers, particularly in provinces with poor rock resources, are struggling to survive.
•
The government is keen to conserve natural resources for the benefit of the country’s domestic industries, and has begun to levy export tariffs on certain goods, including a new 10% export tax on phosphate rock that became effective on November 1 2006.
•
Chinese phosphate rock is not of the highest quality, and some importers will prefer rock from other sources if available.
Of the rock producing provinces, only Guizhou and Hubei continue to export significant amounts of rock. In 2006, 83% of exports came from Guizhou, and over 13% originated in Hubei. Yunnan exported some 28,500 tonnes in H1 2006, but the province now appears to have ended exports. Over 93% of all the exported phosphate rock went to either South Korea or Japan.
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1.5 Phosphate Rock Production 1.5.1 Chinese 30% P2O5 rock production increases by 28% As the demand for phosphate rock in China has grown considerably in the last few years, it is not surprising to see that rock production has also leapt up. As Diagram 1.4 indicates, Chinese domestic rock output has increased from around 31 million tonnes in 2000 to 50.4 million tonnes in 2006, which gives a compound annual growth rate of roughly 8.2%.
Diagram 1.7: Chinese production of 30% P2O5 and low grade phosphate rock, 2000-2006
million tonnes
30% P2O5
Low P2O5
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006p
Of this total, we divide the rock into two categories: The officially recorded volume of 30% P2O5 rock produced; and the volume of low grade rock which comes from smaller, unofficial mining operations. We can make an estimation of the volume of low grade rock produced by looking at the amount of phosphate chemicals and P4 that is stated in annual government production statistics, calculating how much of it is supplied by the 30% P2O5 rock, and then how much of the unofficial output, assuming an average of 2425% P2O5, would be needed to supply the remainder. The proportion of “official” 30% P2O5 phosphate rock that is produced each year has been around 60% of the total since 2000. However, since 2005, the provincial governments, particularly in Hubei and Yunnan, have begun to try to increase mining efficiency by encouraging the consolidation of mining companies and forcing the closure of many of the smaller unofficial operations. This initiative would now appear to be producing the intended result, as the volume of 30% P2O5 rock produced moved up considerably to 39.03 million tonnes in 2006, a 28% increase on the previous year’s total of 30.50 million tonnes. At the
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same time, low grade “unofficial” rock production fell from around 18 million tonnes in 2005 down to roughly 11 million tonnes in 2006, making the proportion of 30% P2O5 rock rise to 77.5% of the total output in 2006.
Given China’s high demand for phosphate rock and strong growth in the phosphate chemicals industry, we do not expect to see the end of unofficial mining operations in the next ten years. However, we do believe that the closures and consolidations will be ongoing, and that the percentage of rock in the total output coming from official mining operations will continue to grow each year.
Diagram 1.8: Four biggest Chinese producers of phosphate rock – 2006
Total volume = 50.36 million tonnes
Yunnan Phosphate Chemical Group 15% Guizhou Kailin Group 7%
Low grade producers 23%
Guizhou Hongfu 6% Other 30% P2O5 producers 44%
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Yunnan Tianning Mining Industry Co 5%
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1.6 Ocean Freights Since November 2006, the Baltic Dry Index1 has maintained its upward trend and at the end of January 2007 was comfortably above 4000 points. This continuing optimism amongst vessel owners is largely a result of the early price settlement of iron ore supply contracts into China, ensuring steady bookings for vessels into the New Year. Additionally, around 1700 dwt of vessels were removed from the fleet and demolished in 2006, and so the supply/demand balance remains tight.
Diagram 1.9: Baltic Freight/Dry Index
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000
Ja n9 Ja 2 n9 Ja 3 n9 Ja 4 n9 Ja 5 n9 Ja 6 n9 Ja 7 n9 Ja 8 n9 Ja 9 n0 Ja 0 n0 Ja 1 n0 Ja 2 n0 Ja 3 n0 Ja 4 n0 Ja 5 n0 Ja 6 n07
0
Source: Baltic Dry Index, Copyright Baltic Exchange
This relative scarcity in the market for vessels means that we are expecting to see steady rates of around 3500-4500 points throughout 2007, and we do not expect to see it move below 3000 points over the next two years.
However, looking further ahead, the high prices enjoyed by vessel owners in the last year have given them the confidence, and the capital, to invest in new carriers. A total of 35 million deadweight tonnage (dwt) of new vessels was ordered in 2006, compared to just 8 million dwt during the previous year. When these new vessels are launched in the years 2009-2011, we can then expect to see freight rates moving into another cyclical trough.
1
The Baltic Dry Index is a composite ocean freight index drawn from three other indices for Handysize/Handymax, Panamax and Capesize vessels, covering single voyage, trip and time charters. Phosphate rock makes up a very small part of the dry bulk shipping sector. However, the BDI is the best available general indicator of relevant trends in ocean freights, even if it does not always closely reflect the situation for phosphate rock in particular.
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Chapter 2 - Market Forecasts 2.1 Prices At this time of year, numerous annual rock price contracts are in the process of negotiation, and so it is not currently possible to say with complete accuracy how prices have changed since November 2006. However, we believe that certain recent developments are putting upward pressure on prices, at a time when the market is already going through a cyclical high.
Table 2.1: Phosphate Rock Price Forecast (US $/tonne) MOROCCO
JORDAN
EGYPT
TOGO
TUNISIA
RUSSIA
Khouribga Khouribga Bou-Craa 70 BPL
72 BPL
f.a.s
f.a.s
80 BPL 68/72 BPL 73/75 BPL 66/68 BPL 79 BPL 60/62 BPL 65/68 BPL 86 BPL f.a.s
Casablanca Casablanca Laayoune
f.o.b
f.o.b
f.o.b.
f.a.s
f.o.b
f.o.b
C&f NW
Aqaba
Aqaba
Egypt
Kpeme
Sfax
Sfax
Europe
2003
34-42
36-44
44-54
33-45
46-54
20-25
30-38
25-33
31-38
60-66
2004
34-44
38-48
44-56
34-52
48-56
25-30
32-36
25-35
33-44
62-68
2005
38-55
40-54
50-65
37-50
52-65
30-40
35-45
32-38
38-50
82-85
2006
40-55
43-56
54-65
40-52
55-65
33-42
35-47
33-39
39-50
87-89
2007
44-59
48-60
57-69
43-55
57-65
35-44
40-48
33-41
40-51
89-94
2008
42-58
46-60
56-68
42-54
56-66
38-44
40-52
34-40
40-50
88-94
2009
40-54
42-56
53-64
40-50
52-62
36-43
38-50
33-38
40-46
87-90
2010
39-52
40-53
51-62
38-50
49-60
33-40
36-48
32-37
37-42
85-89
2011
38-50
39-52
50-62
37-50
48-57
32-40
32-46
30-37
35-41
83-89
2012
40-50
40-52
51-63
38-50
49-58
32-39
32-46
29-36
34-42
84-89
2013
41-52
42-54
53-60
39-51
50-59
33-40
35-47
31-36
35-43
85-92
2014
42-52
44-56
53-62
41-52
52-60
34-42
36-47
30-38
36-44
86-92
2015
42-53
43-55
54-64
40-52
50-60
35-45
38-47
32-38
37-44
85-91
We expect that Moroccan 72% BPL rock will be priced around $2-4/t higher in 2007 than was forecast in the Ten Year Outlook to 2015, whilst rock from Egypt, Tunisia and Togo will be around $1-3/t higher. Jordanian rock exports declined by over 700,000 tonnes in 2006 compared to the previous year, and so we expect to see a milder price increase of around $1-2/t higher than the last forecast, as JPMC attempt to increase sales for 2007.
86% BPL rock out of Russia is forecast to increase by $3-4/t, rather than our earlier expectation of around $2/t.
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The reasons behind the changes are as follows: •
Prices for downstream fertilizers, particularly DAP, have increased dramatically in the first two months of 2007. The price of US DAP fob Tampa inflated by over $120/t to $377/t between January 4 2007 and March 1 2007, exerting upward pressure on prices around the world. These price increases are now moving upstream to phosphoric acid and phosphate rock.
•
Preliminary statistics indicate that rock production decreased in 2006 by around 2.4 million tonnes, reducing supply. In addition, rock producers are showing increasing reluctance to export, preferring to realise higher profits from the sale of downstream phosphate fertilizers.
•
China’s role as a net exporter to the market is drawing to a close more quickly than had been previously anticipated.
Looking ahead, we expect to see prices follow a similar pattern to the one set out in the last Ten Year Outlook, since none of the factors influencing our mid-term forecast have changed significantly. •
The cyclical peak in prices over 2007/2008 is now expected to be higher due to the reasons outlined above.
•
Beginning in 2009, expanded phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer capacity will exert a downward influence on prices, with the cyclical trough expected in 2011 as in our previous forecast. Prices during this downturn have not been altered since the last outlook, though we expect prices may be towards the higher end of the forecast range.
•
Again, as in the last outlook, prices are expected to rebound as the supply demand balance begins to tighten in 2012, although we have increased the high and low ends of our forecast range to be on average $1-3 dollars higher during this upswing.
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2.2 Mining Capacity Global phosphate rock capacity decreased from 203 million tonnes in 2005 down to just under 200 million tonnes in 2006, primarily due to the mine closures that removed 6 million tonnes of capacity from the US’s total.
Going forward, capacity will rebound to almost 202 million tonnes in 2007, and continue to increase up to over 239 million t/y by 2015 as a result of expansions and new mines in China, South America and Africa.
Table 2.2: World Phosphate Rock Capacity Forecast, 2005-2015 (million tonnes) Change 2005 2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2005-2015 World Total
203.5 199.5 201.9 206.4 215.8 223.4 228.3 229.9 231.2 234.2 239.1
35.67
West Europe
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.00
Central Europe
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00
FSU
18.9
18.9
19.8
19.8
19.8
20.4
20.5
20.6
20.6
21.1
21.6
2.73
Africa
54.3
54.5
55.0
57.1
57.1
58.5
59.5
59.5
59.5
59.5
61.0
6.70
North America
43.5
37.3
35.8
35.8
36.5
36.5
35.9
35.9
35.7
37.4
40.3
-3.12
Central America
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00
South America
8.2
8.4
8.7
9.7
13.2
13.2
13.7
14.2
15.2
15.5
15.5
7.26
Middle East
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
20.2
22.6
22.6
22.6
22.6
22.6
3.90
South Asia
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
0.00
South East Asia
2.0
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
0.50
East Asia
51.2
52.7
54.2
55.7
60.8
64.9
66.4
67.4
67.9
68.4
68.4
17.25
Oceania
3.8
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
0.45
Due to recent developments, we have altered the capacity forecast as follows: •
In the FSU, capacity is projected to increase by 300,000 t/y from 2010 to 20.4 million t/y, due to the new mining operation planned in Yevgen’evskoye, eastern Russia.
•
African capacity has been moved down due to a fresh assessment of Egyptian capacity. The mine at Hamrawein is now believed to have been closed for some time, and others are currently estimated to have a lower capacity than in previous years. The expansion of El Watania’s operations in East Sabaiya is anticipated to limit the reduction to less than 100,000 tonnes in 2008, but since we are no longer including the IFFCO/El Nasr phosphoric acid joint venture in our forecast (we have instead included an IFFCO/JPMC project in Jordan), we have removed the new Aswan mine that was intended to supply it from our forecast. African phosphate rock capacity is now expected to remain below 60 million t/y until 2015.
•
The news of a number of new phosphate fertilizer and industrial phosphates projects in China have prompted us to forecast expanded capacity in East Asia from 2007. By 2010, rock capacity is now
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forecast to be 4.4 million t/y higher, at 66.4 million t/y. Chinese capacity is expected to surpass 60 million t/y by 2009. •
It was announced in December 2006 that Agrium’s 1.2 million t/y Kapuskasing mine in Canada is now expected to be economically unviable after 2013, and so we have moved Canadian capacity down to 1 million tonnes in 2013, and then to zero from 2014 onwards.
Table 2.3: Net Changes to Global Capacity Forecast, 2005-2015 (million tonnes) 2005 2006p World Total
-1.1
-1.0
2007f
2008f
2009f
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
-0.3
0.6
-1.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
1.4
1.4
FSU
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Africa
-1.1
-1.0
-0.5
-0.1
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
-2.1
North America
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.2
-1.2
East Asia
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.7
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
2.3 Phosphate Rock Supply Preliminary data for 2006 indicate lower production than we had anticipated. It now appears that production decreased in 2006 by 2.6 million tonnes, compared to the previous year, to 166.2 million tonnes, in large part due to the drawing down of phosphate fertilizer stocks around the world. Going forward, production is expected to increase once more from 2007 as the phosphate fertilizer supply/demand balance tightens and higher production levels are required. We forecast that rock production will have reached 194.4 million tonnes by 2015, with the strongest growth coming from South America and South East Asia due to new mining operations.
Table 2.4: World Phosphate Rock Production Forecast, 2005-15 (million tonnes) Change 2005 2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2005-2015 World Total
168.87 166.22 169.44 172.43 175.21 180.22 183.16 185.96 188.68 191.53 194.36
25.49
West Europe
0.82
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
-0.01
Central Europe
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
FSU
13.29
13.04
13.16
13.30
13.41
13.67
13.74
13.71
14.03
14.33
14.62
1.33
Africa
45.80
46.02
46.45
47.40
48.00
47.82
47.12
47.28
48.28
49.44
50.53
4.73
North America
36.40
32.00
32.78
33.25
32.96
33.05
32.00
32.03
31.88
31.97
32.33
-4.08
Central America
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
South America
5.81
6.30
6.76
7.23
8.33
8.98
10.38
11.37
11.77
11.94
12.15
6.35
Middle East
12.79
12.37
12.13
12.14
12.04
14.45
17.01
17.87
17.95
18.19
18.12
5.33
South Asia
1.45
1.57
1.74
1.78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.75
1.77
1.80
1.81
0.36
South East Asia
1.03
1.03
1.36
1.46
1.49
1.52
1.55
1.58
1.62
1.65
1.68
0.65
East Asia
48.61
50.46
51.53
52.29
53.45
55.17
55.84
56.66
57.63
58.59
59.56
10.95
Oceania
2.87
2.64
2.74
2.79
2.93
2.93
2.86
2.90
2.93
2.82
2.75
-0.12
Chapter 2 - 22
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The changes that have been made to accommodate the preliminary 2006 data affects the whole forecast going forward, and so we now expect the total global output to be in the range of 1-5 million t/y less than we had projected in the Ten Year Outlook to 2015.
Mine closures in the US, and production problems in Agrium’s Kapuskasing mine in Canada were the main factors that caused North American production to fall from 36 million tonnes in 2005 down to 32 million tonnes in 2006. Going forward, the significantly higher prices that have been realised by phosphate fertilizers since November 2006 are expected to prompt an increase in output. This in turn will drive up phosphate rock production, and volumes are expected to remain steady in the range of 32-33 million t/y through to 2013. From 2014, however, the Canadian mine at Kapuskasing is projected to have closed and so production is expected to move down by around 500,000 t/y due to this.
In the Middle East, preliminary 2006 data indicate that production was around 600,000 tonnes less than we were expecting, at 12.4 million tonnes, due to phosphate fertilizer stocks being drawn down and Jordanian output decreasing due to some logistical difficulties in transporting materials. Going forward our forecast calls for relatively flat growth until 2010, when production in Jordan is forecast to begin increasing due to a new 500,000 t/y P2O5 phosphoric acid plant. This is the plant that we expect will be commissioned as a joint venture between IFFCO and JPMC. By 2015, Middle Eastern phosphate rock production is now expected to reach around 100,000 tonnes higher than in our last forecast, at 18.1 million t/y.
African output has also been altered downwards primarily by the removal from the forecast of the IFFCO/El Nasr phosphoric acid joint venture in Egypt, which would have increased Egyptian rock production. Additionally, we are expecting OCP to begin to draw down its inventories from 2009, when new phosphoric acid capacity comes onstream in Morocco.
In Russia, rock producer Apatit produced around 250,000 fewer tonnes in 2006, with the result that the FSU’s regional total decreased from 13.3 million tonnes in 2005 to just over 13 million tonnes in 2006. We had previously anticipated a 500,000 tonne increase, but it now appears that phosphate fertilizer production and consumption in Russia were lower in 2006 than we were expecting. Looking ahead, the FSU is now forecast to have fairly flat growth, until the new mine in Yevgen’evskoya is commissioned.
South American production has been moved down from 2007 as we are now expecting a slower build up to full commissioning of the new Peruvian mine at Bayovar.
In Oceania, lower production in Australia and Nauru in 2006 changes the forecast, which will remain fairly flat but will be 400,000-600,000 t/y lower to 2015.
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Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table 2.5: Net Changes to Phosphate Rock Production Forecast (million tonnes) 2,005
2006p
2007f
2008f
2009f
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
World Total
0.0
-4.3
-4.4
-4.3
-4.2
-1.2
-2.0
-1.8
-1.4
-1.2
-0.8
FSU
0.0
-0.8
-1.4
-1.4
-1.5
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
Africa
0.0
0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.9
-1.0
-1.6
-2.2
-1.8
-1.8
-1.7
North America
0.0
-2.8
-1.4
-0.9
-1.0
-0.1
-1.1
-1.0
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
South America
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Middle East
0.0
-0.6
-1.1
-1.1
-1.0
-0.6
-0.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.1
South East Asia
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
East Asia
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.7
1.5
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.3
Oceania
0.0
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
On the other hand, in China production increased to 50.8 million tonnes of rock, around 300,000 tonnes higher than in the previous forecast. Production is expected to remain fairly flat to 2010, in the range of 51-53 million t/y, before a number of new phosphate fertilizer projects are commissioned over 2010/2011, prompting production increases to almost 58 million t/y by 2015.
Chapter 2 - 24
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2.4 Phosphate Rock Demand As with production, preliminary data indicate that apparent consumption in 2006 was lower than expected, by around 6.1 million tonnes. The disparity between the production number for 2006 and the consumption number is due to the 3.65 million tonnes of rock that built up in inventories throughout the year, primarily in Morocco and Tunisia.
Decreases in consumption in North America, Africa and West Europe contributed to the global total moving down to less than 163 million tonnes in 2006. Much of this is due to lower phosphoric acid production because phosphate fertilizer stocks were drawn down in many parts of the world. This happened despite demand for phosphate fertilizers growing by 2.0-3.5% in 2006, and so going forward we expect phosphate rock consumption to rebound, reaching 194.3 million tonnes by 2015.
The biggest increases over the outlook period will occur in East Asia, as Chinese demand grows by over 13 million tonnes, and in the Middle East by around 7 million tonnes. The strongest growth will be seen in the Middle East and South America, with compound annual growth forecast to be 7.1% and 4.6% respectively.
Table 2.6 World Phosphate Rock Demand Forecast, 2005-2015 (million tonnes) Change 2005 2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2005-2015 World Total
164.90 162.56 167.45 170.97 174.58 179.81 182.83 185.70 188.53 191.40 194.31
29.41
West Europe
7.07
6.42
6.34
6.30
6.30
6.30
6.29
6.29
6.28
6.28
6.29
-0.78
Central Europe
2.91
2.87
2.93
2.94
2.97
3.00
3.00
3.02
3.04
3.06
3.07
0.17
12.30
12.23
12.45
12.68
12.83
12.86
12.84
12.84
12.99
13.16
13.36
1.07
FSU Africa
24.99
23.96
24.91
26.17
27.75
27.92
27.53
27.66
28.81
29.67
30.69
5.70
North America
39.00
35.07
35.48
35.93
35.75
35.81
34.79
34.84
34.92
35.37
35.71
-3.29
Central America
0.95
0.92
0.95
0.98
1.00
0.99
1.01
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.05
0.10
South America
7.06
8.16
8.46
8.65
8.73
8.97
9.77
10.47
10.68
10.78
11.02
3.96
Middle East
7.08
6.95
7.10
7.17
7.69
10.24
12.96
13.97
14.08
14.20
14.08
7.00
South Asia
6.87
7.33
8.17
8.46
8.66
8.70
8.73
8.77
8.80
8.84
8.88
2.01
South East Asia
3.98
3.52
3.81
3.90
3.94
3.95
4.00
4.04
4.07
4.12
4.16
0.19
East Asia
48.86
51.83
53.46
54.43
55.56
57.58
58.35
59.17
60.15
61.14
62.17
13.31
Oceania
3.85
3.29
3.38
3.35
3.40
3.49
3.56
3.63
3.69
3.75
3.82
-0.03
Forecast demand in all regions apart from East Asia, and the Middle East in the latter half of the outlook period, has been lowered going forward, after lower apparent consumption in 2006. The biggest decrease took place in North America, primarily due to a reduction of 3.6 million tonnes in the US. This was partly caused by over 6 million t/y of capacity loss due to mine closures, and an explosion at Mosaic’s Faustina ammonia plant also hampered production of DAP and MAP for around 6 months of the year, causing an estimated 700,000 tonnes less rock to be consumed. However, this does not account for all of
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Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
the decrease, and so we have surmised that phosphate fertilizer stocks were drawn down heavily in the second half of the year, resulting in reduced rock uptake.
In many other parts of the world, the preliminary data leads us to believe that there have been similar drawdowns of phosphate fertilizer stocks. Regions such as West Europe and South East Asia, which rely heavily on imports, also appear to have consumed less through a combination of high prices and tight supplies.
The only region showing higher than expected demand throughout the entire forecast is East Asia which reached 51.8 million tonnes in 2006, as apparent consumption in China continued to move up. We have increased Chinese demand going forward due to this, and East Asia is now expected to require 62.2 million t/y by 2015.
Lower than expected demand in Jordan in 2006 has prompted us to move the Middle Eastern demand forecast down by up to 800,000 tonnes in the first half of the forecast period. However, since we are now expecting a new 500,000 t/y phosphoric acid plant to be commissioned in Jordan in 2010, the forecast for Middle Eastern demand has been moved higher by up to 1.1 million tonnes in the second half.
Higher levels of imports into South America than expected caused apparent consumption in 2006 to be around 400,000 tonnes higher, at 8.2 million tonnes. Going forward, however, we have moved down our estimation of demand, as we feel that MAP and phosphoric acid production levels will not be as high throughout the outlook period as we had previously thought, due to delays in commissioning and ramp-up of new plants, as well as increased imports of finished fertilizers and intermediates.
Table 2.7: Net Changes to Phosphate Rock Demand Forecast (million tonnes) 2005 2006p
2007f
2008f
2009f
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
World Total
0.0
-6.1
-5.0
-4.9
-4.1
-1.1
-1.9
-1.6
-1.3
-1.0
-0.6
West Europe
0.0
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
FSU
0.0
-0.4
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
Africa
0.0
-1.0
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.7
-1.5
-1.2
-1.2
-1.1
North America
0.0
-2.5
-1.4
-0.8
-0.8
0.1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
South America
0.0
0.4
-0.2
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-1.1
-1.1
Middle East
0.0
-0.5
-0.8
-0.8
-0.5
-0.2
0.3
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.6
South Asia
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
South East Asia
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
East Asia
0.0
0.1
0.9
1.0
1.2
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.5
Oceania
0.0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
Chapter 2 - 26
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2.5 Phosphate Rock Trade International phosphate rock trade declined by around 1 million tonnes in 2006, to 29.9 million tonnes. We had previously expected the data to show an increase of 700,000 tonnes, but reduced exports from some countries and indications of lower demand in some parts of the world, according to preliminary 2006 data, have prompted us to lower our forecasts.
2.5.1 Phosphate Rock Imports After the 1 million tonne reduction in 2006, imports are expected to rebound in 2007 mainly due to another big increase in Indian imports, of around 700,000 tonnes. Subsequently, import volumes should remain relatively flat at around 31-32 million t/y, before moving up to over 32 million t/y from 2012, as several regions, most notably South Asia, take advantage of an increase in international supply at this time. By the end of the outlook period, imports are forecast to stand at around 33.4 million tonnes.
Table 2.8: Phosphate Rock Imports Forecast, 2005-2015 (million tonnes) Change 2005 2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2005-2015 World Total
30.89
29.92
30.86
30.78
31.21
31.54
31.88
32.27
32.58
33.09
33.42
2.52
West Europe
6.24
5.62
5.54
5.50
5.50
5.49
5.48
5.48
5.47
5.47
5.48
-0.77
Central Europe
2.91
2.87
2.93
2.94
2.97
3.00
3.00
3.02
3.04
3.06
3.07
0.17
FSU
2.22
2.20
2.15
2.20
2.22
2.19
2.20
2.23
2.23
2.23
2.23
0.01
Africa
0.03
0.16
0.10
0.08
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.03
North America
2.62
2.50
2.70
2.68
2.79
2.76
2.78
2.80
3.03
3.40
3.38
0.76
Central America
0.95
0.92
0.95
0.98
1.00
0.99
1.01
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.05
0.10
South America
1.67
1.87
1.71
1.44
1.05
1.12
1.22
1.33
1.39
1.42
1.55
-0.12
Middle East
1.79
1.76
1.89
1.94
2.48
2.58
2.65
2.72
2.71
2.71
2.73
0.94
South Asia
5.43
5.76
6.43
6.68
6.86
6.88
6.89
7.02
7.03
7.04
7.07
1.65
South East Asia
2.97
2.54
2.55
2.54
2.55
2.53
2.55
2.56
2.55
2.57
2.59
-0.39
East Asia
2.36
2.32
2.38
2.34
2.26
2.41
2.51
2.52
2.52
2.56
2.61
0.25
Oceania
1.70
1.41
1.52
1.46
1.46
1.52
1.53
1.54
1.54
1.55
1.60
-0.10
The main changes to the forecast are as follows: •
Global trade is now expected to be lower than previously anticipated by 1.4-2.4 million t/y throughout the outlook period. The most significant changes have occurred in West Europe and South and South East Asia.
•
Imports to West Europe have decreased due to lower demand in Belgium and Spain. Imports are forecast to remain flat at around 5.5 million t/y going forward. This appears to be linked to the forthcoming presentation of an EU investigation on the effect of phosphate-based detergents on surface waters within the continent of Europe, which may result in an EU-wide ban on the use of sodium tripolyphosphate in household laundry detergents.
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•
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
In South Asia, although imports increased by 300,000 tonnes to 5.8 million tonnes in 2006, we had previously forecast a higher increase to 6.2 million tonnes. The lower imports came about due to problems in some Indian DAP production plants reducing phosphoric acid and DAP output, thereby reducing rock demand. Going forward, continued problems at the IFFCO plant in Paradip are now expected to keep rock demand below 7 million t/y until 2012.
•
Indonesian imports declined due to reduced availability from Egypt and Jordan, bringing the South East Asian total down to 2.5 million tonnes in 2006. The forecast calls for imports to the region to remain flat at around 2.5 million t/y through to 2015.
•
In South America, we have now decided to include a new 119,000 t/y phosphoric acid plant in Venezuela in our forecast, as well as a 200,000 t/y expansion to the existing plant operated by Pequiven. The new capacities will be commissioned in 2010, and will require up to 400,000 t/y of additional phosphate rock by 2012. We anticipate that rock production in Venezuela will not be sufficient to provide for them both, and we expect the shortfall to be supplied by imported rock.
•
After the Canadian mine operated by Agrium is closed in 2013, the country’s phosphate consumers will rely entirely on imported rock and so we have raised North American imports by 800,000t/y from 2014.
Table 2.9: Net Changes to Phosphate Rock Imports Forecast (million tonnes) 2005 2006p
2007f
2008f
2009f
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
World Total
0.0
-1.7
-2.0
-2.4
-2.4
-2.0
-1.8
-1.7
-1.5
-1.4
-1.4
West Europe
0.0
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
FSU
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Africa
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
North America
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.8
South America
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Middle East
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
South Asia
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
South East Asia
0.0
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
East Asia
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Oceania
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
2.5.2 Phosphate Rock Exports Reduced exports from Russia, Jordan and China in 2006 pushed global exports down to 29.9 million tonnes, from 30.9 million tonnes in 2005. However, from 2007, though Chinese exports will continue to dwindle, increased trade from Africa and South America is expected to prompt exports to rebound, moving up to more than 32 million t/y from 2012. By 2015, exports are expected to have increased by just over 2.5 million tonnes to 33.4 million t/y.
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Table 2.10: Phosphate Rock Exports Forecast, 2005-2015 (million tonnes) Change 2005 World Total
30.88
FSU
3.26
Africa
17.75
2006p 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2005-2015 29.93 30.86 2.82
2.85
18.61 19.62
30.78 31.21 31.54 31.88 32.27 32.58 33.09 33.42 2.81
2.80
3.00
3.10
3.10
3.27
3.40
2.54
3.48
0.22
19.80 19.63 19.47 19.20 19.27 19.20 19.50 19.64
1.90
South America
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.65
1.13
1.83
2.23
2.48
2.58
2.68
2.68
Middle East
7.07
6.69
6.92
6.91
6.83
6.79
6.70
6.62
6.58
6.70
6.77
-0.30
South East Asia
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
East Asia
2.11
0.95
0.45
0.20
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-2.11
Oceania
0.70
0.80
0.90
0.95
1.05
1.05
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.80
0.75
0.05
As with imports, the forecast for exports has decreased due to preliminary data for 2006. The most significant changes are as follows: •
Jordanian exports fell from 4 million tonnes in 2005 to 3.3 million tonnes in 2006, reducing Middle Eastern export volumes over the outlook period by 600,000-800,000 t/y. Transport difficulties between JPMC’s mining sites and the Southern port of Aqaba have contributed the most to this reduction, and imports are set to decrease even further in 2010, when the commissioning of a new phosphoric acid plant is planned. By 2015, exports from the Middle East are expected to total 6.8 million tonnes.
•
Russian exports decreased as demand in West Europe, one of Russia’s major regional customers, fell in 2006. Going forward, European demand is expected to remain flat, and so Russian exports will be around 400,000-500,000 t/y lower until 2010, when the new Yevgen’evskoye mine begins to export rock across the border to China. From 2011, we anticipate that exports will be only around 200,000 t/y lower than expected in our previous forecast, at 3.1 million t/y rising to 3.5 million t/y by in 2015.
•
Chinese exports have continued to decrease as expected, but the instigation of a 10% export tariff in November 2006 has increased the rate of decline and so volumes are now forecast to be lower than reported in the last outlook by 300,000-400,000 t/y until exports end in 2009.
•
African exports are now forecast to be 0.7-1.0 million t/y lower during 2008-2015, primarily due to the intention of OCP to rein in Moroccan exports. The state company has vertically integrated phosphate fertilizer production facilities from which greater profits are realised than the sale of rock, and so they are more focussed on developing and expanding this area of business in the future.
•
In Oceania, exports from Nauru have amounted to around 150,000 tonnes less than was previously expected. We now feel that our earlier forecast was a little optimistic, and have moved imports down by around 150,000-200,000 t/y for most of the outlook period.
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Chapter 2 - 29
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table 2.11: Net Changes to Phosphate Rock Exports Forecast (million tonnes) 2005 2006p World Total
2007f
2008f
2009f
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
0.0
-1.7
-2.0
-2.4
-2.4
-2.0
-1.8
-1.7
-1.5
-1.4
-1.4
FSU
0.0
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Africa
0.0
-0.2
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.0
-0.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
South America
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Middle East
0.0
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
South East Asia
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
East Asia
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oceania
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.1
Chapter 2 - 30
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Appendix A - Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix A - 1
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table A.1: Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Rock (thousand tonnes) 2003 World Total West Europe Austria Belgium/Lux Denmark
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
152,234 160,799 164,900 162,560 167,454 170,970 174,581 179,809 182,828 185,703 188,525 191,404 194,312 7,430
7,402
7,068
6,416
6,342
6,304
6,303
6,298
6,290
6,289
6,283
6,280
178
203
182
185
185
185
185
185
185
185
185
185
6,288 185
1,469
1,514
1,586
1,328
1,335
1,341
1,349
1,356
1,362
1,370
1,377
1,383
1,389
66
33
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Finland
855
898
877
854
856
858
860
861
863
865
867
869
863
France
784
587
399
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
Germany Greece Ireland
76
166
154
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
353
356
375
225
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
0
2
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Italy
240
260
196
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
Netherlands
851
790
709
824
826
829
832
831
829
832
830
833
836
Norway
644
661
709
673
673
673
673
673
673
673
673
673
673
Portugal Spain Sweden
139
157
134
89
89
89
89
89
89
89
89
89
89
1,740
1,762
1,737
1,561
1,565
1,515
1,501
1,487
1,472
1,458
1,444
1,429
1,433
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
United Kingdom
16
14
12
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
16
17
18
Central Europe
2,664
2,872
2,905
2,872
2,932
2,938
2,969
3,001
3,003
3,022
3,042
3,063
3,074
Albania
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
Bulgaria
538
507
560
577
581
585
589
593
555
556
556
557
557
Croatia
189
244
276
332
338
344
351
357
363
370
376
383
371
24
24
35
21
41
44
48
52
55
59
63
66
70
8
0
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
19
Czech Republic Hungary Poland
1,463
1,651
1,608
1,644
1,673
1,662
1,677
1,693
1,721
1,727
1,735
1,743
1,759
Romania
443
448
414
298
298
298
298
298
298
298
298
298
298
Slovakia
0
0
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Former USSR Belarus Kazakhstan
10,888 12,061 12,298 12,230 12,453 12,684 12,828 12,861 12,843 12,844 12,986 13,159 13,364 258
332
362
392
373
423
438
452
479
507
534
544
555
1,220
1,478
1,429
1,463
1,467
1,481
1,496
1,510
1,536
1,543
1,550
1,558
1,565
Lithuania
1,118
1,048
1,186
1,161
1,181
1,174
1,174
1,120
1,102
1,099
1,081
1,063
1,045
Russia
7,641
8,177
8,302
8,131
8,321
8,486
8,591
8,639
8,579
8,541
8,658
8,834
9,039
Ukraine
178
425
452
486
493
501
508
517
522
527
533
529
527
Uzbekistan
474
601
568
597
617
619
621
623
625
627
629
631
633
Africa
23,872 25,017 24,990 23,962 24,908 26,170 27,754 27,918 27,528 27,656 28,809 29,670 30,694
Algeria
51
69
39
0
1
1
2
2
3
4
4
5
565
Egypt
724
583
662
733
777
806
834
866
894
922
948
975
1,001 1
Ghana
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Ivory Coast
3
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kenya
0
0
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
Morocco
12,090 13,135 13,595 13,593 13,771 14,648 15,650 15,570 14,850 14,890 15,908 16,641 17,032
Senegal
2,034
1,979
1,608
600
1,012
1,372
1,732
1,804
1,876
1,876
1,876
1,876
1,876
South Africa
2,219
2,505
2,451
2,468
2,482
2,508
2,299
2,275
2,267
2,271
2,328
2,384
2,385
Tanzania Tunisia Zimbabwe North America Canada United States
Appendix A - 2
0
0
1
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
6,652
6,636
6,555
6,535
6,832
6,802
7,204
7,367
7,603
7,660
7,709
7,754
7,800
100
106
74
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
38,426 39,657 39,003 35,074 35,481 35,928 35,751 35,809 34,789 34,836 34,917 35,372 35,711 981
1,064
888
613
636
642
666
689
677
627
632
620
599
37,446 38,593 38,115 34,461 34,844 35,286 35,086 35,120 34,112 34,209 34,285 34,752 35,112
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Table A.1: Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Rock (thousand tonnes) – Concluded. 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,027
953
950
922
952
984
997
993
1,007
1,004
1,020
1,037
1,054
Costa Rica
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cuba
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
10
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Mexico
1,017
936
950
922
952
983
996
992
1,006
1,003
1,019
1,035
1,052
South America
7,029
7,519
7,060
8,161
8,464
8,652
0
0
1
57
57
58
58
58
58
58
59
59
59
6,415
6,850
6,326
7,307
7,590
7,758
7,833
7,788
8,400
9,020
9,184
9,230
9,442
Central America
El Salvador
Argentina Brazil Chile
8,731 8,974.8
9,773 10,471 10,682 10,777 11,019
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Colombia
109
115
107
115
117
119
124
126
128
129
135
140
146
Peru
102
67
109
134
134
134
134
152
170
188
206
224
224
72
80
84
95
96
96
96
96
96
97
97
97
97
329
406
434
453
470
489
486
755
920
979
1,002
1,026
1,051
6,635
6,509
7,079
6,955
7,104
7,172
357
285
363
276
287
300
862
Israel
2,427
2,282
2,529
2,417
2,417
2,471
2,457
Jordan
2,004
2,168
2,282
2,341
2,361
2,327
2,313
790
880
799
755
764
773
782
788
793
798
803
808
813
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,818
3,906
4,441
4,514
4,550
4,433
Uruguay Venezuela Middle East Iran
Lebanon Saudi Arabia
7,689 10,236 12,960 13,973 14,076 14,198 14,078 891
886
884
883
881
880
2,462
2,406
2,412
2,417
2,422
2,427
2,939
3,562
3,962
4,002
4,078
4,056
Syria
392
594
566
507
503
504
505
504
503
501
500
499
497
Turkey
665
300
541
659
772
797
770
833
903
975
958
960
972
South Asia
5,144
6,589
6,871
7,332
8,167
8,461
8,660
8,697
8,732
8,767
8,803
8,836
8,882
Bangladesh
170
147
232
159
114
121
123
121
121
121
121
118
110
India
4,640
6,095
6,216
6,849
7,728
8,014
8,210
8,248
8,282
8,316
8,351
8,385
8,438
Pakistan
292
303
379
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
Sri Lanka
42
45
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
4,029
3,894
3,975
3,520
3,811
3,905
3,938
3,954
4,000
4,041
4,067
4,115
4,163
South East Asia Cambodia
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
Indonesia
1,514
1,428
1,559
1,306
1,319
1,331
1,336
1,341
1,346
1,346
1,346
1,346
1,346
Malaysia
780
865
662
667
671
675
679
684
688
692
696
700
704
Philippines
648
467
447
554
545
521
515
491
497
503
494
506
518
Singapore
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Thailand
237
180
234
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Vietnam
835
939
1,058
977
1,260
1,362
1,392
1,423
1,453
1,484
1,515
1,547
1,579
East Asia
41,128 44,447 48,856 51,828 53,458 54,426 55,557 57,581 58,348 59,172 60,149 61,144 62,169
China
38,645 42,116 46,394 49,493 51,158 52,164 53,374 55,451 56,216 57,031 57,999 58,958 59,929
Japan
763
778
777
783
783
783
783
760
760
761
765
769
North Korea
100
100
100
100
101
102
104
105
106
107
109
110
111
South Korea
1,479
1,316
1,428
1,321
1,284
1,242
1,161
1,127
1,127
1,132
1,134
1,163
1,210
Taiwan
773
141
137
157
131
132
134
136
137
139
141
143
145
146
Oceania
3,962
3,878
3,845
3,290
3,384
3,348
3,403
3,487
3,557
3,627
3,691
3,755
3,815
Australia
2,945
2,762
2,993
2,522
2,593
2,534
2,566
2,626
2,672
2,718
2,757
2,796
2,832
New Zealand
1,017
1,075
852
768
768
768
768
768
768
768
768
768
768
Papau New Guin.
0
0
0
0
23
46
69
93
117
141
166
191
216
Christmas Island
0
42
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix A - 3
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Appendix B - Production of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix B - 1
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table B.1: Production of Phosphate Rock (thousand tonnes) 2003 World Total
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
154,254 162,683 168,868 166,216 169,440 172,434 175,212 180,216 183,160 185,962 188,679 191,533 194,356
West Europe
799
838
823
800
797
800
802
805
808
811
813
814
809
Finland
799
838
823
800
797
800
802
805
808
811
813
814
809
Former USSR Kazakhstan Russia Uzbekistan Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco
12,744 13,445 13,289 13,036 13,159 13,298 13,407 13,671 13,738 13,710 14,027 14,335 14,617 1,260
1,699
1,534
1,563
1,567
1,581
1,596
1,610
1,636
1,643
1,670
1,678
1,685
11,050 11,346 11,286 10,976 11,075 11,198 11,290 11,538 11,578 11,540 11,807 12,116 12,398 433
400
468
497
517
519
521
523
525
527
549
541
533
40,562 43,579 45,805 46,016 46,445 47,399 48,001 47,817 47,117 47,275 48,284 49,442 50,535 898
805
902
1,510
1,891
1,945
1,920
1,821
1,721
1,772
1,873
1,973
2,534
2,183
2,219
2,621
2,177
2,464
2,553
2,656
2,708
2,740
2,777
2,812
2,824
2,950
23,338 26,675 28,788 30,086 29,069 29,431 29,304 29,190 28,318 28,388 29,286 30,260 30,711
Senegal
1,763
1,754
1,542
584
1,012
1,372
1,732
1,804
1,876
1,876
1,876
1,876
1,876
South Africa
2,919
2,856
2,643
2,664
2,611
2,651
2,441
2,426
2,427
2,440
2,506
2,551
2,541
6
6
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
8
8
Togo
1,471
1,115
1,021
1,157
1,273
1,373
1,247
1,198
1,178
1,158
1,098
1,078
1,058
Tunisia
7,890
8,050
8,204
7,812
8,098
8,048
8,674
8,643
8,830
8,837
8,806
8,851
8,836
100
106
78
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Tanzania
Zimbabwe North America Canada United States
35,046 36,392 36,404 31,999 32,782 33,249 32,958 33,045 32,005 32,032 31,883 31,968 32,328 981
1,064
888
535
536
542
566
589
577
527
332
0
0
34,065 35,328 35,516 31,464 32,245 32,707 32,392 32,456 31,428 31,505 31,551 31,968 32,328
South America
5,556
6,028
5,806
6,295
6,762
7,226
8,334
8,984 10,382 11,372 11,775 11,942 12,153
Brazil
5,252
5,689
5,488
5,955
6,419
6,881
7,205
7,357
8,035
8,605
8,739
8,786
8,897
44
39
18
25
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
Colombia Peru Venezuela Middle East
0
0
0
0
0
0
784
1,282
2,000
2,418
2,686
2,804
2,904
260
300
300
315
316
318
318
318
320
322
323
325
325
12,385 12,053 12,793 12,368 12,130 12,142 12,043 14,447 17,011 17,872 17,951 18,188 18,119
Israel
3,208
2,947
2,917
2,907
2,883
2,913
2,888
2,884
2,839
2,835
2,862
2,868
2,873
Jordan
6,763
6,223
6,381
5,881
5,766
5,732
5,658
6,260
6,808
7,167
7,149
7,275
7,269
Saudi Arabia
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,818
3,906
4,441
4,514
4,550
4,433
Syria
2,414
2,883
3,496
3,580
3,481
3,496
3,497
3,485
3,459
3,428
3,427
3,495
3,544
South Asia
1,112
1,294
1,445
1,571
1,735
1,779
1,800
1,822
1,843
1,751
1,773
1,795
1,807
India
1,070
1,250
1,400
1,527
1,691
1,735
1,756
1,778
1,799
1,707
1,729
1,751
1,763
42
44
45
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
845
917
1,028
1,027
1,360
1,462
1,493
1,523
1,554
1,585
1,616
1,646
1,678
Sri Lanka South East Asia Cambodia Vietnam
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
830
902
1,013
1,012
1,345
1,447
1,478
1,508
1,539
1,570
1,601
1,631
1,663
East Asia
42,318 45,360 48,608 50,463 51,528 52,286 53,447 55,174 55,840 56,657 57,625 58,586 59,558
China
42,218 45,260 48,508 50,363 51,427 52,184 53,344 55,069 55,733 56,549 57,517 58,476 59,447
North Korea
100
100
100
100
101
102
104
105
106
107
109
110
111
Oceania
2,888
2,777
2,868
2,641
2,741
2,792
2,927
2,927
2,862
2,897
2,932
2,817
2,752
Australia
2,218
2,100
2,170
1,841
1,841
1,841
1,876
1,876
1,911
1,946
1,981
2,016
2,001
586
655
690
700
700
701
701
701
701
701
701
701
701
84
22
8
100
200
250
350
350
250
250
250
100
50
Christmas Island Nauru
Appendix B - 2
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Appendix C - Capacity of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix C - 1
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table C.1: Capacity of Phosphate Rock (thousand tonnes) 2003 World Total
2004f
2005f
2006f
2007f
2008f
2009f
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
190,380 198,454 203,454 199,497 201,868 206,418 215,778 223,430 228,310 229,910 231,210 234,210 239,121
West Europe
800
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
Finland
800
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
850
Former USSR Kazakhstan Russia Uzbekistan Africa
16,500 18,500 18,850 18,850 19,750 19,750 19,750 20,375 20,475 20,575 20,575 21,075 21,575 5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
11,000 13,000 13,100 13,100 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,625 14,725 14,825 14,825 15,325 15,825 500
500
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
750
50,540 53,190 54,290 54,540 55,040 57,090 57,140 58,490 59,490 59,490 59,490 59,490 60,990
Algeria
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
2,300
3,800
Egypt
3,130
2,930
3,030
3,130
3,630
4,030
4,030
4,030
4,030
4,030
4,030
4,030
4,030
Morocco
28,600 30,600 31,200 31,200 31,200 32,800 32,800 33,100 34,100 34,100 34,100 34,100 34,100
Senegal
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
2,350
South Africa
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
Tanzania
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
Togo
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
Tunisia
8,250
9,100
9,500
9,650
9,650
9,700
9,750 10,800 10,800 10,800 10,800 10,800 10,800
180
180
180
180
180
180
Zimbabwe North America Canada United States
180
180
180
180
180
180
180
44,320 43,634 43,454 37,334 35,834 35,834 36,544 36,544 35,924 35,924 35,724 37,424 40,335 1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,200
1,000
0
0
43,120 42,434 42,254 36,134 34,634 34,634 35,344 35,344 34,724 34,724 34,724 37,424 40,335
South America
7,465
7,875
8,205
8,368
8,668
9,668 13,168 13,168 13,668 14,168 15,168 15,468 15,468
Brazil
6,860
7,270
7,600
7,743
8,043
9,043 11,143 11,143 11,143 11,143 11,643 11,643 11,643
Chile
10
10
10
10
10
Colombia Peru Venezuela Middle East
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
100
100
100
100
100
100
1,500
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,300
3,300
405
405
405
425
425
425
425
425
425
425
425
425
425
17,750 18,150 18,650 18,650 18,650 18,650 18,650 20,150 22,550 22,550 22,550 22,550 22,550
Iraq
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
Israel
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
5,350
Jordan
8,500
8,500
8,500
8,500
8,500
8,500
8,500
7,500
7,500
7,500
7,500
7,500
7,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,500
4,900
4,900
4,900
4,900
4,900
Syria
2,600
3,000
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
3,500
South Asia
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
2,170
India
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
2,060
Pakistan
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
Sri Lanka
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
1,920
1,920
2,020
2,020
2,520
2,520
2,520
2,520
2,520
2,520
2,520
2,520
2,520
Saudi Arabia
South East Asia
1,300
Cambodia
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
Indonesia
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
900
900
1,000
1,000
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
Philippines Vietnam East Asia
44,950 48,350 51,150 52,650 54,150 55,650 60,750 64,900 66,400 67,400 67,900 68,400 68,400
China
44,400 47,800 50,600 52,100 53,600 55,100 60,200 64,350 65,850 66,850 67,350 67,850 67,850
North Korea
550
550
550
550
550
550
550
550
550
550
550
550
550
Oceania
3,965
3,815
3,815
4,065
4,236
4,236
4,236
4,263
4,263
4,263
4,263
4,263
4,263
Australia
3,015
3,015
3,015
3,015
3,036
3,036
3,036
3,063
3,063
3,063
3,063
3,063
3,063
Christmas Island
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
700
Nauru
250
100
100
350
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
500
Appendix C - 2
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Appendix D - Imports of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix D - 1
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table D.1: Imports of Phosphate Rock (thousand tonnes) 2003 World Total West Europe Austria Belgium/Lux
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
29,190 30,895 30,894 29,924 30,858 30,783 31,215 31,541 31,881 32,272 32,580 33,089 33,419 6,630
6,580
6,245
5,616
5,545
5,504
5,501
5,492
5,482
5,478
5,470
5,465
178
203
182
185
185
185
185
185
185
185
185
185
5,479 185
1,469
1,514
1,586
1,328
1,335
1,341
1,349
1,356
1,362
1,370
1,377
1,383
1,389
Denmark
66
33
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Finland
56
76
54
54
59
58
57
56
55
54
54
54
54
France
784
587
399
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
76
166
154
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
353
356
375
225
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
Germany Greece Ireland Italy Malta Netherlands
0
2
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
240
260
196
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
851
790
709
824
826
829
832
831
829
832
830
833
836 673
Norway
644
661
709
673
673
673
673
673
673
673
673
673
Portugal
139
157
134
89
89
89
89
89
89
89
89
89
89
1,740
1,762
1,737
1,561
1,565
1,515
1,501
1,487
1,472
1,458
1,444
1,429
1,433
Spain Sweden
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
United Kingdom
16
14
12
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
16
17
18
Central Europe
2,664
2,872
2,905
2,872
2,932
2,938
2,969
3,001
3,003
3,022
3,042
3,063
3,074
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
Bulgaria
538
507
560
577
581
585
589
593
555
556
556
557
557
Croatia
189
244
276
332
338
344
351
357
363
370
376
383
371
24
24
35
21
41
44
48
52
55
59
63
66
70
8
0
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
19
1,463
1,651
1,608
1,644
1,673
1,662
1,677
1,693
1,721
1,727
1,735
1,743
1,759
Romania
443
448
414
298
298
298
298
298
298
298
298
298
298
Slovakia
0
0
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,594
2,026
2,221
2,199
2,148
2,198
2,220
2,189
2,203
2,232
2,228
2,226
2,227
Albania
Czech Republic Hungary Poland
Former USSR Belarus
258
332
362
392
373
423
438
452
479
507
534
544
555
1,118
1,048
1,186
1,161
1,181
1,174
1,174
1,120
1,102
1,099
1,081
1,063
1,045
Russia
0
20
105
60
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Turkmenistan
0
0
17
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
178
425
452
486
493
501
508
517
522
527
533
529
527
Lithuania
Ukraine Uzbekistan
40
201
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
90
100
Africa
146
150
31
160
96
81
81
72
62
52
42
52
62
Ghana
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Ivory Coast
3
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Kenya
0
0
5
0
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
Mali
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
143
145
25
159
89
74
74
64
54
44
34
44
54
2,392
2,513
2,625
2,499
2,699
2,679
2,794
2,764
2,784
2,804
3,034
3,404
3,383
0
0
0
78
100
100
100
100
100
100
300
620
599
United States
2,392
2,513
2,625
2,421
2,599
2,579
2,694
2,664
2,684
2,704
2,734
2,784
2,784
Central America
South Africa North America Canada
1,027
953
950
922
952
984
997
993
1,007
1,004
1,020
1,037
1,054
Costa Rica
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cuba
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
10
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Mexico
1,017
936
950
922
952
983
996
992
1,006
1,003
1,019
1,035
1,052
South America
1,542
1,961
1,668
1,866
1,712
1,436
1,047
1,121
1,220
1,329
1,387
1,415
1,546
1
57
57
58
58
58
58
58
59
59
59
1,251
1,352
1,172
877
628
431
365
415
445
445
545
El Salvador
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Paraguay
1,227
1,632
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
65
76
89
90
90
92
97
99
101
102
108
113
119
4
0
0
0
102
67
109
134
144
144
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uruguay
72
80
84
95
96
96
96
96
96
97
97
97
97
Venezuela
69
106
134
138
154
171
168
437
600
657
679
701
726
Peru
Appendix D - 2
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Table D.1: Imports of Phosphate Rock (thousand tonnes) – Concluded. Middle East Iran Israel Lebanon Turkey South Asia Bangladesh
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,893
1,535
1,790
1,759
1,890
1,936
2,481
2,578
2,647
2,721
2,706
2,711
2,726
357
285
363
276
287
300
862
891
886
884
883
881
880
81
70
87
69
68
67
66
65
64
64
62
62
61
790
880
799
755
764
773
782
788
793
798
803
808
813
665
300
541
659
772
797
770
833
903
975
958
960
972
4,041
5,296
5,429
5,761
6,432
6,682
6,860
6,875
6,889
7,016
7,030
7,041
7,075
170
147
232
159
114
121
123
121
121
121
121
118
110
3,579
4,845
4,816
5,322
6,037
6,279
6,454
6,470
6,483
6,609
6,622
6,634
6,675
292
303
379
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
South East Asia
3,203
2,982
2,975
2,544
2,551
2,544
2,547
2,532
2,547
2,558
2,553
2,569
2,586
Indonesia
1,346
India Pakistan Sri Lanka
1,514
1,428
1,559
1,306
1,319
1,331
1,336
1,341
1,346
1,346
1,346
1,346
Malaysia
780
865
662
667
671
675
679
684
688
692
696
700
704
Philippines
648
467
447
554
545
521
515
491
497
503
494
506
518
Singapore Thailand Vietnam East Asia
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
237
180
234
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
24
41
73
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
2,383
2,231
2,362
2,317
2,381
2,341
2,262
2,407
2,508
2,516
2,524
2,558
2,611
China
0
0
0
82
182
182
182
382
482
482
482
482
482
Japan
763
778
777
783
783
783
783
760
760
761
765
769
773
1,479
1,316
1,428
1,321
1,284
1,242
1,161
1,127
1,127
1,132
1,134
1,163
1,210
141
137
157
131
132
134
136
137
139
141
143
145
146
1,675
1,796
1,695
1,410
1,520
1,461
1,457
1,518
1,529
1,540
1,544
1,548
1,598
659
722
843
643
752
693
689
750
761
772
776
780
830
1,017
1,075
852
768
768
768
768
768
768
768
768
768
768
South Korea Taiwan Oceania Australia New Zealand
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix D - 3
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Appendix E - Exports of Phosphate Rock, 2003-2015
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix E - 1
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table E.1: Exports of Phosphate Rock (thousand tonnes) 2003 World Total
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
29,189 30,896 30,881 29,926 30,858 30,783 31,215 31,541 31,881 32,272 32,579 33,089 33,419
West Europe
0
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Finland
0
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,385
3,389
3,255
2,819
2,854
2,812
2,799
2,999
3,099
3,099
3,269
3,402
3,479
Former USSR Kazakhstan Russia Africa
0
40
221
105
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
120
120
120
3,344
3,168
3,150
2,719
2,754
2,712
2,699
2,899
2,999
2,999
3,149
3,282
3,359
15,162 16,180 17,747 18,613 19,624 19,800 19,627 19,471 19,201 19,271 19,197 19,504 19,642
Algeria
723
737
841
1,516
1,891
1,944
1,919
1,819
1,719
1,769
1,869
1,969
1,969
Egypt
897
1,425
1,578
1,488
1,688
1,748
1,822
1,842
1,846
1,856
1,864
1,850
1,950
Morocco Senegal South Africa Tanzania Togo Tunisia
11,011 11,829 13,388 13,506 13,798 13,782 13,653 13,620 13,467 13,498 13,377 13,619 13,678 37
31
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
252
268
120
163
218
217
216
215
214
213
212
211
210
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1,364
1,238
1,048
1,173
1,273
1,373
1,247
1,198
1,178
1,158
1,098
1,078
1,058
879
653
767
768
757
737
771
777
777
777
777
777
777
North America
10
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
United States
10
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
South America
35
32
0
0
10
10
650
1,130
1,830
2,230
2,480
2,580
2,680
Brazil
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Peru
31
31
0
0
10
10
650
1,130
1,830
2,230
2,480
2,580
2,680
Venezuela
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,349
7,547
7,067
6,691
6,917
6,907
6,835
6,789
6,699
6,620
6,581
6,702
6,767
862
735
474
559
534
509
497
487
497
488
507
508
507
Jordan
3,687
4,666
4,006
3,254
3,405
3,405
3,345
3,320
3,245
3,205
3,147
3,197
3,213
Syria
1,800
2,146
2,586
2,878
2,978
2,993
2,993
2,982
2,957
2,927
2,927
2,997
3,047
South East Asia
0
0
0
51
101
101
101
101
101
101
101
100
100
Vietnam
0
0
0
51
101
101
101
101
101
101
101
100
100
East Asia
3,573
3,144
2,114
952
452
202
152
0
0
0
0
0
0
China
3,573
3,144
2,114
952
452
202
152
0
0
0
0
0
0
Oceania
676
585
698
800
900
951
1,051
1,051
951
951
951
801
751
Christmas Island
565
558
680
700
700
701
701
701
701
701
701
701
701
Nauru
111
27
18
100
200
250
350
350
250
250
250
100
50
Middle East Israel
Appendix E - 2
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Appendix F - Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix, 2003, 2004 & 2005
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix F - 1
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table F.1: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2003 (thousand tonnes product) (Exporting Countries) Morocco Jordan
China
Russia
Syria
Togo
Egypt Tunisia
Israel
Algeria
P.R.
Christmas South Others
Totals
Island Africa
World Totals
11,011
3,687
3,573
3,344
1,800
1,364
West Europe
897
879
862
722
565
252
234
29,190 6,630
3,149
420
0
1,844
536
62
3
66
305
244
0
0
2
Austria
169
-
-
-
-
-
1
-
8
-
-
-
-
178
Belgium/Lux
466
-
-
881
55
-
-
-
16
51
-
-
-
1,469
Denmark
-
-
-
66
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
66
Finland
-
-
-
56
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
56
France
784
625
-
-
-
9
-
-
4
-
145
-
-
2
Germany
76
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
76
Greece
76
-
-
-
215
62
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
353
Italy
124
-
-
-
67
-
-
28
9
12
-
-
-
240
13
420
-
131
15
-
-
-
272
-
-
-
-
851
Norway
-
-
-
644
-
-
-
20
-
-
-
-
-
664
Portugal
9
-
-
-
110
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
119
1,590
-
-
48
65
-
2
-
-
37
-
-
-
1,740
Sweden
-
-
-
18
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
18
U.K.
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
15
-
-
-
-
-
16
1,134
628
0
128
343
55
0
344
20
13
0
0
0
2,665
Bulgaria
48
314
-
-
177
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
538
Croatia
Netherlands
Spain
Central Europe
189
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
189
Czech Republic
-
-
-
24
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
24
Hungary
-
-
-
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
8
Poland
673
314
-
96
-
23
-
344
-
13
-
-
-
1,463
Romania
225
-
-
-
166
32
-
-
20
-
-
-
-
443
FSU.
0
57
0
1,287
86
0
0
0
0
124
0
0
40
1,594
Belarus
-
-
-
258
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
258
Lithuania
-
57
-
1,028
-
-
-
-
-
33
-
-
-
1,118
Ukraine
-
-
-
-
86
-
-
-
-
92
-
-
-
178
Uzbekistan
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
40
Africa
0
0
1
0
0
143
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
146
Ivory Coast
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3
Mali
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
South Africa
-
-
-
-
-
143
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
143
North America
2,392
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,392
U.S.A.
2,392
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2,392
985
0
0
0
0
32
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
1,027
10
10
Mexico
985
-
-
-
-
32
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,017
South America
661
0
0
15
0
64
0
110
461
168
0
57
7
1,542
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Brazil
490
-
-
-
-
-
-
94
461
168
-
15
-
1,227
Chile
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3
Colombia
-
-
-
15
-
8
-
-
-
-
-
42
-
65
Central America El Salvador
Argentina
Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
4
102
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
102
-
-
-
-
-
56
-
16
-
-
-
-
-
72
69
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
69
Middle East
86
460
0
72
835
119
0
172
0
149
0
0
0
1,893
Iran
86
272
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
357
Israel
-
-
-
72
-
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
81
Lebanon
-
-
-
-
790
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
790
Turkey
-
188
-
-
45
110
-
172
-
149
-
-
-
665
Appendix F - 2
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Table F.1: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2003 (thousand tonnes product) – Concluded. (Exporting Countries) Morocco Jordan
China
Russia
Syria
Togo
Egypt Tunisia
Israel
Algeria
P.R. South Asia Bangladesh
923
1,781
Christmas South Others
Totals
Island Africa
504
0
0
411
289
0
0
0
0
12
122
4,041
-
-
73
-
-
-
97
-
-
-
-
-
-
170
India
699
1,713
431
-
-
411
192
-
-
-
-
12
122
3,579
Pakistan
224
68
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
292
South East Asia
597
190
1,188
0
0
0
568
115
5
24
516
0
0
3,202
Indonesia
393
146
445
-
-
-
369
20
-
-
141
-
-
1,514
Malaysia
-
20
91
-
-
-
199
95
-
24
350
-
-
779
Philippines
-
-
643
-
-
-
-
-
5
-
-
-
-
648
Thailand
203
-
9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
25
-
-
237
Vietnam
-
24
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
24
East Asia
425
152
1,530
0
0
0
0
0
71
0
0
183
22
2,383
Japan
108
93
390
-
-
-
-
-
17
-
-
155
-
763
Korea South Rep
291
-
1,139
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
28
22
1,479
26
60
1
-
-
-
-
-
54
-
-
-
-
141
660
0
350
0
0
478
38
72
0
0
49
0
28
1,675
Taiwan Oceania Australia
204
-
125
-
-
265
16
-
-
-
49
-
-
659
New Zealand
456
-
226
-
-
213
22
72
-
-
-
-
28
1,017
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix F - 3
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table F.2: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2004 (thousand tonnes product) (Exporting Countries) China Morocco
Jordan P.R.
World Totals
11,829
4,666
3,144
West Europe
Christma Israel
Algeria s Island
South
Russia Syria
Togo
Egypt Tunisia
Africa
Others
Totals
3,168 2,146
1,238
1,425
653
735
737
558
268
329
30,895
3,257
367
0
1,710
449
8
16
70
363
297
0
25
17
6,580
Austria
187
-
-
-
-
-
16
-
-
-
-
-
-
203
Belgium/Lux
440
-
-
819
90
-
-
-
78
62
-
25
-
1,514
Denmark
-
-
-
17
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
16
33
Finland
-
-
-
76
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
76
France
449
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
-
131
-
-
1
587
Germany
166
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
166
Greece
118
-
-
-
229
8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
356
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
-
-
-
-
-
2
Ireland (Rep) Italy
145
-
-
-
67
-
-
26
-
22
-
-
-
260
-
367
-
138
-
-
-
-
285
-
-
-
-
790
-
-
-
661
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
661
70
-
-
-
63
-
-
25
-
-
-
-
-
157
1,679
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
82
-
-
-
1,762
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
11
-
-
-
-
-
14
1,308
631
0
105
411
21
0
351
13
33
0
0
0
2,873
Bulgaria
16
334
-
-
157
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
507
Croatia
244
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
244
-
-
-
24
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
24
Poland
783
297
-
81
85
21
-
351
-
33
-
-
-
1,651
Romania
266
-
-
-
169
-
-
-
13
-
-
-
-
448
65
33
0
1,283
344
0
0
0
0
81
0
0
220
2,026
Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain U.K. Central Europe
Czech Republic
FSU. Belarus
-
-
-
332
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
332
65
33
-
951
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,048
Russia
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
20
20
Ukraine
-
-
-
-
344
-
-
-
-
81
-
-
-
425
Lithuania
Uzbekistan
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
201
201
Africa
0
11
0
0
0
135
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
150
Ghana
-
-
-
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
Ivory Coast
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5
5
South Africa
-
11
-
-
-
134
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
145
North America
2,513
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,513
U.S.A.
2,513
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2,513 953
Central America
949
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
Costa Rica
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3
3
El Salvador
13
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
13
Mexico South America Brazil Colombia Ecuador
936
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
936
1,151
0
0
0
0
144
0
95
292
233
0
46
2
1,962
933
-
-
-
-
116
-
57
292
233
-
-
-
1,632
30
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
46
-
76
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2
2
Peru
67
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
67
Uruguay
15
-
-
-
-
28
-
37
-
-
-
-
-
80
Venezuela
106
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
106
Middle East
41
421
0
70
942
0
3
24
0
34
0
0
0
1,535
Iran
285
25
261
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Israel
-
-
-
70
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
70
Lebanon
-
-
-
-
880
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
880
17
160
-
-
62
-
3
24
-
34
-
-
-
300
Turkey
Appendix F - 4
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Table F.2: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2004 (thousand tonnes product) – Concluded. (Exporting Countries) China Morocco South Asia Bangladesh
1,179
Jordan P.R. 2,612
Christma Russia Syria
415
0
0
Togo 348
Egypt Tunisia 694
0
Israel 0
Algeria s Island 0
0
South Africa
Others
Totals
0
48
5,296
-
-
29
-
-
-
117
-
-
-
-
-
-
147
India
976
2,516
385
-
-
348
572
-
-
-
-
-
48
4,845
Pakistan
202
96
-
-
-
-
5
-
-
-
-
-
-
303
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
South East Asia
339
404
878
0
0
0
664
79
0
59
558
0
0
2,981
Indonesia
Sri Lanka
177
337
344
-
-
-
367
17
-
37
150
-
-
1,428
Malaysia
-
21
113
-
-
-
257
62
-
22
390
-
-
865
Philippines
-
6
417
-
-
-
41
-
-
-
4
-
-
467
Singapore
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1 180
Thailand
163
-
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
14
-
-
Vietnam
-
41
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
41
408
187
1,373
0
0
0
0
0
67
0
0
191
5
2,231
Japan
104
101
382
-
-
-
-
-
16
-
-
175
-
778
Korea South Rep
304
-
990
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
17
5
1,316
-
86
1
-
-
-
-
-
51
-
-
-
-
137
620
0
477
0
0
582
47
35
0
0
0
5
30
1,796
East Asia
Taiwan Oceania Australia
145
-
235
-
-
319
18
-
-
-
-
5
-
722
New Zealand
475
-
243
-
-
263
30
35
-
-
-
-
30
1,074
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix F - 5
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
Table F.3: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2005 (thousand tonnes product) (Exporting Countries) China
Christmas
Morocco
Jordan
World Totals
13,388
4,007
2,114
3,150
West Europe
3,012
241
0
1,659
Austria
158
Belgium/Lux
399
P.R. Russia Kazakhstan
Syria
Togo Egypt Tunisia
105
2,586
1,048
1,579
767
474
0
704
0
17
122
251
7 936
Israel Algeria
South
Island
Nauru
841
680
18
Africa Tanzania Others 120
5
0
30,881
213
0
0
27
0
0
6,245
17
182
173
51
27
1,586
Denmark
0
Finland
54
France
336
Germany
154
Greece
54 63
399
10
375
154
74
233
58
Ireland (Rep)
0
Italy
81
Netherlands
74 241
Norway
40
Portugal
113
Spain
31
217
10
196
251
709
669
709 21
134
1,657
80
U.K. Central Europe
1,737
12 1,474
463
Bulgaria
114
240
Croatia
276
0
109
0
10
494
0
0
354
12 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
197
560
23
Poland
801
Romania
283
223
23
64
166
354
1,608
131
Slovakia
414
12
FSU.
257
73
241
73
0
Belarus Lithuania Russia
1,295
12 105
386
0
0
0
0
66
0
0
0
0
0
362
872
1,186 88
Turkmenistan
105
17
Ukraine
17 386
Uzbekistan
66
452
62 0
0
0
2,182
362
17
Africa
2,893
276
Czech Republic
0
62 0
0
Ghana
26
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
1
31 1
Ivory Coast
0
Kenya
5
South Africa
5
25
North America
2,625
U.S.A.
2,625
Central America
950
25
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,625 2,625
Costa Rica
950 0
El Salvador
0
Mexico South America
Totals
950 1,041
Argentina Brazil Colombia
950 0
1
0
0
0
172
0
111
151
192
55
151
192
1 697
Uruguay Venezuela
Appendix F - 6
0
0
0
0
1,668 1
157
1,251
89
89
109
109
Ecuador Peru
0
0
13 134
15
56
84 134
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Outlook to 2015 (Six Monthly Update)
www.extranet.crugroup.com
Table F.3: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2005 (thousand tonnes product) – Concluded. (Exporting Countries) China Morocco
Jordan
Middle East
232
468
Iran
179
184
Christmas
P.R. Russia Kazakhstan 0
87
0
Pakistan
0
0
0
54
284
1,395
2,375
177
1,134
2,301
137
Nauru
0
0
Africa Tanzania Others 0
0
0
261
73
203 0
0
0
541 673
618
0
0
144
47
232
673
428
143
4,816
109
339
0
0
0
0
891
116
78
152
-
-
-
-
549
88
12
39
-
-
-
-
159
27
145
-
-
-
-
130
-
-
-
-
54
-
-
39
0
73
3
0
0
0
0
5,429
0
180
618
19
166
1,559
425
662
12
448
15
234
161
0
0
0
0
2,975
73
554
278
Japan
113
184
384
-
-
-
-
0
-
18
-
-
-
78
-
777
Korea South Rep
391
44
922
-
-
-
-
39
-
-
-
-
18
15
-
1,428
50
51
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
55
-
-
-
-
1,126
0
266
0
0
0
177
0
65
0
0
62
0
0
Oceania
0
0
East Asia
Taiwan
1,307
0
2
723
19
0
379
507
Vietnam
0
1
Indonesia
216
191
45
South East Asia
Philippines
1,790
87
0.2
Malaysia
Totals
799
41
Sri Lanka
Thailand
0
South
Island
799
Bangladesh India
0
Israel Algeria
87
Lebanon
South Asia
1,002
Togo Egypt Tunisia
363
Israel
Turkey
Syria
0
0
18
93
0
0
0
2,362
-
157
0
1,695
Australia
538
-
151
-
-
92
-
-
-
-
62
-
-
-
843
New Zealand
588
-
115
-
-
85
-
65
-
-
-
-
-
-
852
-
-
24
-
-
-
14
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
38
Others
British Sulphur Consultants confidential
Appendix F - 7
