Ref No: FYO149 December 2006
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service to 2015 Annual Report
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X OAD Tel: +44 (0) 20 7903 2132 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7833 4973 Website: www.crugroup.com This report is supplied on a private and confidential basis to the customer. Its contents must not be disclosed to any other company, organisation or individual, nor be photocopied or otherwise reproduced in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of CRU International. This report is delivered on the understanding that CRU International’s liability is limited to the provision of the professional services outlined in the contract for this report. Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, CRU International cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions or that the proposed investment will be successful. If the client uses our work in any information Memorandum or similar document for the purpose of raising funds, CRU International accepts no liability to third parties however arising and without limitation. ©CRU International Ltd, 2006. All rights reserved.
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Contents Page Executive Summary I. Recent trends in the phosphate rock market II. The Outlook for Prices III. The Outlook for International Trade IV. The Outlook for Supply V. The Outlook for Demand VI. The Outlook for the Supply/Demand Balance
i i ii iii v vii x
Chapter 1 - Recent Market Developments Summary 1.1 Recent Trends in Demand 1.2 Recent Trends in Supply 1.2.1 Production 1.2.2 New phosphoric acid projects 1.3 Recent Trends in International Trade 1.3.1 Imports 1.3.2 Exports 1.4 Recent Trends in Prices
1 1 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 9
Chapter 2 - The Outlook for Demand Demand Summary 2.1 Demand Introduction 2.2 Phosphate Fertilizers – World Overview 2.3 Industrial, Food and Animal Feed Phosphates 2.3.1 Industrial and Food Phosphates 2.3.2 Animal Feed Phosphates 2.4 Phosphate Rock Demand 2.4.1 West Europe 2.4.2 Central Europe 2.4.3 The Former Soviet Union 2.4.4 Africa 2.4.5 North America 2.4.6 Central America 2.4.7 South America 2.4.8 The Middle East 2.4.9 South Asia 2.4.10 South East Asia 2.4.11 East Asia 2.4.12 Oceania
11 11 12 12 16 16 20 22 23 25 26 28 31 32 33 35 38 40 41 43
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Contents continued Page Chapter 3 - The Outlook for Supply Supply Summary 3.1 Long Term Outlook 3.1.1 Global Reserves 3.1.2 Phosphate Rock Quality 3.2 Phosphate Rock Capacity Forecast: 2005-2015 3.2.1 Ten-Year Outlook 3.2.2 World Overview 3.2.2.1 Capacity 3.2.2.2 Production 3.2.3 West Europe 3.2.4 Former Soviet Union 3.2.5 Africa 3.2.5.1 Algeria 3.2.5.2 Egypt 3.2.5.3 Morocco 3.2.5.4 Senegal 3.2.5.5 South Africa 3.2.5.6 Tanzania 3.2.5.7 Togo 3.2.5.8 Tunisia 3.2.5.9 Zimbabwe 3.2.5.10 Other 3.2.6 North America 3.2.6.1 Florida 3.2.6.2 North Carolina 3.2.6.3 Idaho 3.2.6.4 Utah 3.2.6.5 Canada 3.2.7 Central America 3.2.8 South America 3.2.8.1 Brazil 3.2.8.2 Colombia 3.2.8.3 Peru 3.2.8.4 Venezuela 3.2.8.5 Other 3.2.9 The Middle East 3.2.10 South Asia 3.2.11 South East Asia 3.2.13 East Asia 3.2.14 Oceania
45 45 47 47 49 50 50 51 51 52 53 54 57 58 58 59 60 60 61 61 61 62 62 63 63 65 65 66 66 66 67 68 69 69 69 70 70 72 73 75 79
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Contents continued Page Chapter 4 - The Outlook for International Trade Summary 4.1 Phosphate Rock Imports 4.1.1 Import Summary by Region 4.1.1.1 West Europe 4.1.1.2 Central Europe 4.1.1.3 The Former Soviet Union 4.1.1.4 Africa 4.1.1.5 North America 4.1.1.6 Central America 4.1.1.7 South America 4.1.1.8 Middle East 4.1.1.9 South Asia 4.1.1.10 South East Asia 4.1.1.11 East Asia 4.1.1.12 Oceania 4.2 Phosphate Rock Exports 4.2.1 Export Summary by Region 4.2.1.1 Africa 4.2.1.2 South America 4.2.1.3 Middle East 4.2.1.4 East Asia 4.2.1.5 Oceania
81 81 83 84 84 84 85 85 85 85 86 86 86 87 87 87 88 90 90 91 91 91 92
Chapter 5 - The Outlook for the Supply/Demand Balance Summary 5.1 World Overview 5.2 The Supply of Quality Phosphate Rock 5.2.1 Cadmium Levels in Fertilizers 5.3 New Mine Capacity 5.3.1 Other Potential Projects
93 93 95 97 99 100 102
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Contents continued Page Chapter 6 - The Outlook for Prices Summary 6.1 Phosphate Rock Costs 6.1.1 Capital Costs 6.1.2 Transportation Costs 6.1.2.1 Phosphate Rock Freight Rates 6.1.3 Operating Costs 6.1.3.1 China 6.1.3.2 The United States 6.1.3.3 Morocco 6.1.3.4 Russia 6.1.3.5 The Middle East 6.1.3.6 Summary 6.2 Medium Term Price Forecast
103 103 104 104 104 106 106 106 107 107 108 108 108 109
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List of Tables Page Executive Summary Table I: Global Phosphate Rock Supply Summary Table II: World Crop Situation - Wheat, Coarse Grains and Rice Table III: World Phosphate Rock Supply/Demand Summary
i v vii x
Chapter 1 - Recent Market Developments Table 1.:1 World Phosphate Rock Situation, 2004-2006 Table 1.2: World Phosphate Rock Consumption by region, 2004-2006 Table 1.3: World Phosphate Rock Production by region, 2004-2006 Table 1.4: New Phosphoric Acid Capacities to 2015 Table 1.5: World Phosphate Rock Imports by region, 2004-2006 Table 1.6: World Phosphate Rock Exports by region, 2004-2006 Table 1.7: Phosphate Rock Prices, 2004-2006
1 1 3 5 5 7 8 9
Chapter 2 - The Outlook for Demand Table 2.1: World Cereal Crop Statistics Table 2.2: World Phosphate Fertilizer Demand 2005-2015 Table 2.3: P2O5 Demand for Industrial and Food Phosphates and Direct Derivatives of Phosphorus, 2005-2015 Table 2.4: Animal Feed Phosphates: Typical Analysis Table 2.5: World Animal Feed Phosphate Consumption to 2015 Table 2.6: World Phosphate Rock Demand by region, 2005-2015 Table 2.7: West Europe Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.8: Central Europe Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.9: Former Soviet Union Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.10: Africa Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.11: North America Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.12: Central America Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.13: South America Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2. 14: Middle East Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.15: South Asia Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.16: South East Asia Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.17: East Asia Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015 Table 2.18: Oceania Phosphate Rock Demand, 2005-2015
11 13 14 20 21 21 22 24 25 26 29 31 32 33 35 38 40 42 44
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List of Tables continued Page Chapter 3 - The Outlook for Supply Table 3.1: Global Phosphate Rock Supply Summary Table 3.2: Top Five rock Producing Countries, 2005 Table 3.3: Estimated Phosphate Rock Reserves by Production Cost Table 3.4: World Phosphate Rock Capacity by Region Table 3.5: World Phosphate Rock Production by Region Table 3.6: West Europe Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.7: FSU Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.8: Africa Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.9: North America Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.10: Central America Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.11: South America Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.12: Middle East Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.13: South Asia Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.14: South East Asia Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.15: East Asia Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.16: Oceania Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production
45 45 45 48 51 53 53 54 57 63 67 67 70 72 74 75 79
Chapter 4 - The Outlook for International Trade Table 4.1: Phosphate Rock Imports by Region, 2005-2015 Table 4.2: Phosphate Rock Exports by Region, 2005-2015
81 83 88
Chapter 5 - The Outlook for the Supply/Demand Balance Table 5.1: World Phosphate Rock Supply/Demand Summary Table 5.2: Probable Phosphate Rock Capacity Expansions to 2015 Table 5.3: Additional Potential Phosphate Rock Projects Chapter 6 - The Outlook for Prices Table 6.1: Select Phosphate Rock Mine Cost Ranking Table 6.2: Phosphate Rock Price Forecast: Morocco & Jordan
93 95 100 102 103 108 110
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List of Tables continued Page Statistical Review Appendix A – Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Rock Table A.1: Apparent Consumption of Phosphate Rock
A-1 A-1
Appendix B – Production of Phosphate Rock Table B.1: Production of Phosphate Rock
B-1 B-1
Appendix C – Phosphate Rock Capacity Table C.1: Phosphate Rock Capacity
C-1 C-1
Appendix D – Imports of Phosphate Rock Table D.1: Imports of Phosphate Rock
D-1 D-1
Appendix E – Exports of Phosphate Rock Table E.1: Exports of Phosphate Rock
E-1 E-1
Appendix F – Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix 2003, 2004 and 2005 Table F.1: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2003 Table F.2: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix - 2004 Table F.3: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2005
F-1 F-2 F-5 F-8
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List of Diagrams Page Executive Summary Diagram I: Average Moroccan 72% BPL Phosphate Rock Price Diagram II: Phosphate Import Changes, 2005-2015 Diagram III: Phosphate Rock Export Changes, 2005-2015 Diagram IV: Phosphate Rock Production Changes, 2005-2015 Diagram V: Forecast New Phosphate Rock Mining Capacity to 2015 Diagram VI: Phosphate Rock demand breakdown – 2005, 2010 and 2015 Diagram VII: Phosphate Rock Demand Growth, 2005 to 2015
i ii iii iv vi vi viii viii
Chapter 2 - The Outlook for Demand Diagram 2.1: World Cereal Stocks & Stocks/Consumption Ratio Diagram 2.2: Cereal & Oilseed Prices Diagram 2.3: Demand for Industrial & Food Phosphates by Region, 2005 Diagram 2.4: Demand for Industrial & Food Phosphates by End-Use, 2004 Diagram 2.5: Phosphate Rock Demand Growth 2005 to 2015
11 14 15 17 17 23
Chapter 3 - The Outlook for Supply Diagram 3.1: Top Five Rock Producers, 2005 Diagram 3.2: World Phosphate Rock Deposits Diagram 3.3: World Phosphate Rock Reserves Mineable at
