Ref No: FYO158 November 2007
Phosphate Rock Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service to 2016 Annual Report
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X OAD Tel: +44 (0) 20 7903 2132 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7833 4973 Website: www.crugroup.com This report is supplied on a private and confidential basis to the customer. Its contents must not be disclosed to any other company, organisation or individual, nor be photocopied or otherwise reproduced in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of CRU International. This report is delivered on the understanding that CRU International’s liability is limited to the provision of the professional services outlined in the contract for this report. Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, CRU International cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions or that the proposed investment will be successful. If the client uses our work in any information Memorandum or similar document for the purpose of raising funds, CRU International accepts no liability to third parties however arising and without limitation. ©CRU International Ltd, 2007. All rights reserved.
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Contents Page
Executive Summary
1
1. Recent Trends in the Phosphate Rock Market 2. The Outlook for Prices 3. The Outlook for International Trade 3.1 Imports 3.2 Exports 4. The Outlook for Supply 5. The Outlook for Demand 6. The Outlook for the Supply/Demand Balance
1 2 3 3 4 5 7 9
Chapter 1 – Recent Market Developments
11
Summary 1.1 Recent Trends in Demand 1.2 Recent Trends in Supply 1.2.1 Production 1.2.2 New Phosphate Acid Projects 1.3 Recent Trends in International Trade 1.3.1 Imports 1.3.2 Exports 1.4 Recent Trends in Prices
11 14 15 15 16 17 17 19 20
Chapter 2 – The Outlook for Demand
23
Summary 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Phosphate Fertilizers – World Overview 2.2.1 Agricultural Production 2.2.2 Biofuels 2.2.2.1 Biofuels Introduction 2.2.2.2 Feedstock Crops for Biofuels 2.2.2.3 Production and Demand 2.2.2.4 Outlook for Fertilizers 2.2.3 Outlook for Phosphate Fertilizers 2.3 Industrial, Food and Animal Feed Phosphates 2.3.1 Industrial and Food Phosphates 2.3.1.1 Recent Events 2.3.1.2 Forecast 2.3.2 Animal Feed Phosphates
23 24 24 24 27 27 29 30 31 34 35 35 35 39 40
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Contents continued Page
Chapter 2 – The Outlook for Demand (Continued)
23
2.4 Phosphate Rock Demand 2.4.1 Phosphate Rock Demand Summary 2.4.2 West Europe 2.4.3 Central Europe 2.4.4 The Former Soviet Union 2.4.5 Africa 2.4.6 North America 2.4.7 Central America 2.4.8 South America 2.4.9 The Middle East 2.4.10 South Asia 2.4.11 East Asia 2.4.12 South-East Asia 2.4.13 Oceania
41 41 43 45 46 48 50 51 52 53 55 57 58 59
Chapter 3 – The Outlook for Supply
61
Summary 3.1 Long-Term Outlook 3.1.1 Global Reserves 3.1.2 Phosphate Rock Quality 3.2 Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Forecast: 2006-2016 3.2.1 World Overview 3.2.1.1 Capacity 3.2.1.2 Production 3.2.2 West Europe 3.2.3 The Former Soviet Union 3.2.4 Africa 3.2.5 North America 3.2.6 Central America 3.2.7 South America 3.2.8 The Middle East 3.2.9 South Asia 3.2.10 South-East Asia 3.2.11 East Asia 3.2.12 Oceania
61 63 63 65 67 67 67 68 69 70 71 77 79 80 82 84 86 87 90
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Contents continued Page
Chapter 4 – The Outlook for Trade
93
Summary 4.1 Phosphate Rock Imports 4.1.1 Import Summary by Region 4.1.1.1 West Europe 4.1.1.2 Central Europe 4.1.1.3 The Former Soviet Union 4.1.1.4 Africa 4.1.1.5 North America 4.1.1.6 Central America 4.1.1.7 South America 4.1.1.8 The Middle East 4.1.1.9 South Asia 4.1.1.10 South-East Asia 4.1.1.11 East Asia 4.1.1.12 Oceania 4.2 Phosphate Rock Exports 4.2.1 Export Summary 4.2.2 Export Summary by Region 4.2.2.1 FSU 4.2.2.2 Africa 4.2.2.3 South America 4.2.2.4 The Middle East 4.2.2.5 East Asia 4.2.2.6 Oceania
93 95 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 98 98 99 99 99 100 100 100 102 102 102 103 103 103 104
Chapter 5 – The Outlook for the Supply/Demand Balance
105
Summary 5.1 World Overview 5.2 The Supply of Quality Phosphate Rock 5.2.1 Grades of Phosphate Rock 5.2.2 Cadmium Levels in Fertilizers 5.3 New Mine Capacity 5.3.1 New Capacities Included in the Forecast 5.3.2 Other Potential Projects
105 106 108 108 109 110 110 111
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Contents continued Page
Chapter 6 – The Outlook for Prices
113
Summary 6.1 Phosphate Rock Costs 6.1.1 Capital Costs 6.1.2 Transportation Costs 6.1.3 Operating Costs 6.1.3.1 China 6.1.3.2 The United States 6.1.3.3 Morocco 6.1.3.4 Russia 6.1.3.5 The Middle East 6.1.3.6 Summary 6.2 Medium-Term Price Forecast
113 114 114 114 116 116 117 117 117 118 118 119
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List of Tables Page
Executive Summary
1
Table 1: Global Phosphate Rock Supply Summary Table 2: World Crop Situation – Wheat, Coarse Grains and Rice Table 3: World Phosphate Rock Supply/Demand Summary
5 7 9
Chapter 1 – Recent Market Developments
11
Table 1.1: World Phosphate Rock Situation, 2005-207 Table 1.2: World Phosphate Rock Consumption by Region, 2005-2007 Table 1.3: World Phosphate Rock Production by Region, 2005-2007 Table 1.4: New Phosphoric Acid Capacities to 2016 Table 1.5: World Phosphate Rock Imports by Region, 2005-2007 Table 1.6: World Phosphate Rock Exports by Region, 2005-2007 Table 1.7: Phosphate Rock Prices, 2005-2007
11 14 16 17 18 19 20
Chapter 2 – The Outlook for Demand
23
Table 2.1: World Cereal Crop Statistics Table 2.2: Energy Yields from Various Biofuel Plants Table 2.3: Average Fertilizer Application Rates Table 2.4: World Phosphate Fertilizer Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.5: List of Chinese Industrial Phosphate Chemicals Which Have Had Export Rebates Cancelled or Reduced From July 1st, 2007 Table 2.6: Rock Demand for Industrial and Food Phosphates, and Direct Derivatives of Phosphorus, 2006-2016 Table 2.7: Animal Feed Phosphates: Typical Chemistry Table 2.8: World Animal Feed Phosphate Consumption to 2016 Table 2.9: World Phosphate Rock Demand by Region, 2006-2016 Table 2.10: West Europe Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.11: Central Europe Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.12: Former Soviet Union Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.13: Africa Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.14: North America Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.15: Central America Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.16: South America Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.17: Middle East Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.18: South Asia Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.19: East Asia Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.20: South-East Asia Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016 Table 2.21: Oceania Phosphate Rock Demand, 2006-2016
25 29 33 34 37 39 40 41 42 44 45 46 48 50 51 52 53 55 57 58 59
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List of Tables continued Page
Chapter 3 – The Outlook for Supply
61
Table 3.1: Global Phosphate Rock Supply Summary Table 3.2: Estimated Phosphate Rock Reserves by Production Cost Table 3.3: World Phosphate Rock Capacity by Region Table 3.4: World Phosphate Rock Production by Region Table 3.5: West Europe Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.6: FSU Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.7: Africa Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.8: North America Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.9: Central America Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.10: South America Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.11: Middle East Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.12: South Asia Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.13: South-East Asia Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.14: East Asia Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production Table 3.15: Oceania Phosphate Rock Capacity and Production
61 63 67 69 69 70 72 77 80 80 83 84 86 87 90
Chapter 4 – The Outlook for Trade
93
Table 4.1: Phosphate Rock Imports by Region, 2006-2016 Table 4.2: Phosphate Rock Exports by Region, 2006-2016
95 100
Chapter 5 – The Outlook for the Supply/Demand Balance
105
Table 5.1: World Phosphate Rock Supply/Demand Summary Table 5.2: Probable Phosphate Rock Capacity Expansions to 2016 Table 5.3: Additional Potential Phosphate Rock Projects
106 110 112
Chapter 6 – The Outlook for Prices
113
Table 6.1: Select Phosphate Rock Mine Cost Ranking Table 6.2: Phosphate Rock Price Forecast, 2003-2016
118 121
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List of Tables continued Page
Statistical Review Appendix A – Consumption of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
123
Table A.1: Consumption of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
124
Appendix B – Production of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
127
Table B.1: Production of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
128
Appendix C – Capacity of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
129
Table C.1: Capacity of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
130
Appendix D – Imports of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
133
Table D.1: Imports of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
134
Appendix E – Exports of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
137
Table E.1: Exports of Phosphate Rock, 2004-2016
138
Appendix F – Phosphate Rock Trade Matrices: 2004, 2005 and 2006
139
Table F.1: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2004 Table F.2: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2005 Table F.3: Phosphate Rock Trade Matrix – 2006
140 143 146
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List of Diagrams Page
Executive Summary
1
Diagram 1: Average Moroccan 72% BPL Phosphate Rock Price Diagram 2: Phosphate Rock Import Changes, 2006-2016 Diagram 3: Phosphate Rock Export Changes, 2006-2016 Diagram 4: New Phosphate Rock Mining Capacity to 2016 Diagram 5: Phosphate Rock Production Changes, 2006-2016 Diagram 6: Phosphate Rock Demand Breakdown – 2006, 2011 and 2016 Diagram 7: Phosphate Rock Demand Growth, 2006-2016
2 3 4 5 6 8 8
Chapter 1 – Recent Market Developments
11
Diagram 1.1: Weekly DAP Prices, November 2005-October 2007
21
Chapter 2 – The Outlook for Demand
23
Diagram 2.1: World Cereal Stocks and Stocks/Consumption Ratio Diagram 2.2: Cereal and Oil-Seed Prices Diagram 2.3: Global Production of Biodiesel and Ethanol for Use in Transportation, 2000-2006 Diagram 2.4: Typical Biofuels Feedstock Crops Around the World Diagram 2.5: Global Biofuels Production by Region, 2006 Diagram 2.6: Key Targeted Increases in Biofuels Demand Diagram 2.7: Likely Trade Routes of Biofuels and Feedstock Crops Going Forward Diagram 2.8: Demand for Industrial and Food Phosphates by End-Use, 2006 Diagram 2.9: Demand for Industrial and Food Phosphates by Region, 2006 Diagram 2.10: Phosphate Rock Demand Growth, 2006-2016
26 26 28 29 30 31 32 36 36 43
Chapter 3 – The Outlook for Supply
61
Diagram 3.1: Regional Phosphate Rock Production Share – 2006, 2011 and 2016 Diagram 3.2: World Phosphate Rock Deposits Diagram 3.3: World Phosphate Rock Reserves Mineable at $40/t reserves than in our estimate from last year. This is attributed to the fact that mining companies are most likely to mine their cheapest and most easily accessible deposits first.
Table 3.2: Estimated Phosphate Rock Reserves by Production Cost (million tonnes) Less than $40
Greater than $40
Total
World Total
44,081
80,069
124,181
West Europe
0
494
494
FSU
2,609
6,000
8,609
Africa
27,388
53,334
80,722
1,660
3,106
4,796
19
0
19
539
1,346
1,885
2,563
3,070
5,633
151
169
320
North America Central America South America Middle East South Asia South-East Asia East Asia Oceania
246
0
246
8,119
12,050
20,169
787
500
1,287
Diagram 3.2 indicates where the major world phosphate rock deposits have been found so far. Diagram 3.3 indicates those countries with the most significant volumes of reserves mineable for less than $40/t. Between them, Morocco and China have 71.5% of the world’s lowest cost reserves, whilst most of the rest is found scattered around the world, in North America, Africa, the Middle East, Russia and Oceania.
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Phosphate Rock Ten Year Forecast to 2016
Diagram 3.2: World Phosphate Rock Deposits
Source: IFDC.
Diagram 3.3: World Phosphate Rock Reserves Mineable at
