FAPRI 2001 U.S. AND WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK January 2001

Staff Report 1-01 ISSN 1534-4533

Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Iowa State University University of Missouri-Columbia Ames, Iowa U.S.A.

Iowa State University Bruce A. Babcock John Beghin Frank Fuller Samarendu Mohanty Jay Fabiosa Phillip Kaus Cheng Fang Chad Hart Holger Matthey Stephane de Cara Karen Kovarik

University of Missouri-Columbia Abner W. Womack Robert E. Young II Pat Westhoff Joe Trujillo D. Scott Brown Gary M. Adams Brian Willott Daniel Madison Seth Meyer John Kruse

Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Iowa State University and the University of Missouri-Columbia, 2001. Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 96-34149-2533. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.

Iowa State University does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, age, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, sex, marital status, disability, or status as a U.S. Vietnam Era Veteran. Any persons having inquiries concerning this may contact the Director of Affirmative Action, 318 Beardshear Hall, 515-294-7612.

Contents Figures List ............................................................................................................................. iv Tables List ............................................................................................................................. vii Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................................ xv Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 Overview of the 2001 Outlook ............................................................................................... 3 Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections ........................................................................ 17 U.S. Macroeconomic and Policy Assumptions ................................................................. 18 World Macroeconomic Assumptions ................................................................................ 24 World Agricultural Policy Assumptions............................................................................ 32 U.S. Crops .............................................................................................................................. 45 U.S. Wheat ......................................................................................................................... 50 U.S. Corn ........................................................................................................................... 52 U.S. Sorghum ..................................................................................................................... 54 U.S. Barley ......................................................................................................................... 56 U.S. Oats ............................................................................................................................ 58 U.S. Hay ............................................................................................................................. 60 U.S. Peanuts ....................................................................................................................... 62 U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products ............................................................................... 64 U.S. Rice ............................................................................................................................ 68 U.S. Upland Cotton ........................................................................................................... 70 U.S. Sugar .......................................................................................................................... 74 U.S. Livestock and Dairy ....................................................................................................... 77 U.S. Beef ............................................................................................................................ 84 U.S. Pork ............................................................................................................................ 86 U.S. Poultry ........................................................................................................................ 88 U.S. Dairy .......................................................................................................................... 92 U.S. State-Level Dairy Supply .......................................................................................... 94 U.S. Dairy Products ........................................................................................................... 98 U.S. Aggregate Measures ..................................................................................................... 101 U.S. Land Use .................................................................................................................. 108 U.S. Prices and Food Expenditures ................................................................................. 120 U.S. Government Costs ................................................................................................... 122 U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings .................................................................... 124 U.S. Farm Production Expenses ...................................................................................... 126 U.S. Net Farm Income ..................................................................................................... 128 Crop Insurance ................................................................................................................. 130 U.S. Agricultural Exports ................................................................................................ 132

iv

World Wheat ......................................................................................................................... 135 World Rice ............................................................................................................................ 159 World Coarse Grains ............................................................................................................ 175 World Oilseeds and Products ............................................................................................... 221 World Soybean and Soybean Products ........................................................................... 222 World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products ........................................................................ 244 World Sunflower Seed and Products ............................................................................... 258 World Palm Oil Complex ................................................................................................ 270 World Peanuts .................................................................................................................. 276 World Cotton ........................................................................................................................ 283 World Sugar .......................................................................................................................... 301 World Meat ........................................................................................................................... 323 World Beef and Veal ........................................................................................................ 326 World Pork ....................................................................................................................... 330 World Poultry ................................................................................................................... 334 World Dairy Products ........................................................................................................... 375

Figures Measures of U.S. Inflation ..................................................................................................... 19 U.S. Prime Interest Rate......................................................................................................... 19 Crude Oil, Average Refiner’s Acquisition Costs ................................................................... 20 Conservation Reserve Program ............................................................................................. 20 AMTA and Market Loss Assistance Payments ..................................................................... 21 U.S. Crop Loan Rates ........................................................................................................... . 21 Developing Real GDP Growth Rates .................................................................................... 25 Recovery of Real GDP Growth In Crisis Countries ............................................................. 25 Exchange Rate Projections .................................................................................................... 26 Population Growth Rates ....................................................................................................... 26 U.S. Crop Planted Area .......................................................................................................... 46 U.S. Wheat Domestic Use ..................................................................................................... 46 U.S. Corn ...................................................................................................................... .......... 47 U.S. Soybean Utilization ....................................................................................................... 47 U.S. Crop Exports .................................................................................................................. 48 U.S. Crop Prices ..................................................................................................................... 48 U.S. Cotton Prices .................................................................................................................. 49 U.S. Rice Prices...................................................................................................................... 49

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U.S. Cattle and Calves ........................................................................................................... 78 U.S. Cattle Prices ................................................................................................................... 78 U.S. Pork Production ............................................................................................................. 79 Barrow and Gilt Price ............................................................................................................ 79 U.S. Poultry Production ......................................................................................................... 80 U.S. Poultry Prices ................................................................................................................. 80 U.S. Livestock Production ..................................................................................................... 81 U.S. Meat Net Exports ........................................................................................................... 81 U.S. Dairy Cows .................................................................................................................... 82 U.S. Milk Production ............................................................................................................. 82 U.S. Cheese Consumption per Person ................................................................................... 83 U.S. Milk Prices ..................................................................................................................... 83 U.S. Land Use ...................................................................................................................... 102 Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Fiscal Year .................................................................. 102 Consumer Price Index for Food ........................................................................................... 103 Consumer Expenditures for Food ........................................................................................ 103 Government Outlays, Fiscal Year ........................................................................................ 104 U.S. Cash Receipts ............................................................................................................... 104 U.S. Farm Income ................................................................................................................ 105 Crop Insurance Outlays, Fiscal Year ................................................................................... 105 Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports ................................................................................. 106 Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports ...................................................................................... 106 Value of U.S. Animal and Grain Exports ............................................................................ 107 Feed Equivalents of U.S. Meat Exports .............................................................................. 107 World Wheat Area Harvested, Production, and Consumption............................................ 138 World Wheat Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ................................................................... 138 Wheat Net Exports by Major Competitors .......................................................................... 139 Wheat Net Imports by Major Regions ................................................................................. 139 Asian Wheat Imports ........................................................................................................... 140 Wheat Trade by Transition Economies ................................................................................ 140 U.S. Wheat Trade and Market Share ................................................................................... 141 EU Wheat Production, Consumption, and Net Trade ......................................................... 141 World Rice Area Harvested ................................................................................................. 162 World Rice Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ...................................................................... 162 Rice Net Imports by Major Countries ................................................................................. 163 Rice Net Exports by Major Countries ................................................................................. 163 World Coarse Grain Area Harvested ................................................................................... 180 World Corn Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ..................................................................... 180 Corn Net Imports by Major Regions ................................................................................... 181 Corn Net Exports by Competitors ....................................................................................... 181 U.S. Corn Trade and Market Share...................................................................................... 182

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Barley Net Exports by Major Countries .............................................................................. 182 Sorghum Net Imports ........................................................................................................... 183 Sorghum Net Exports ........................................................................................................... 183 Soybean Area Harvested ...................................................................................................... 224 Soybean Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ........................................................................... 224 Major Soybean Exporters .................................................................................................... 225 Major Soybean Importers .................................................................................................... 225 Soybean Production to Crush Ratios ................................................................................... 226 China Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade ................................................. 226 Major Soybean Meal Exporters ........................................................................................... 228 Major Soybean Meal Importers ........................................................................................... 228 Chinese Oilseeds Meal Consumption .................................................................................. 229 EU Oilseed Meal Consumption ........................................................................................... 229 Soybean Oil Trade and Price ............................................................................................... 231 Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries ............................................. 231 Rapeseed Area Harvested .................................................................................................... 247 Rapeseed Yield ..................................................................................................................... 247 Rapeseed Trade .................................................................................................................... 248 Rapeseed Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ......................................................................... 248 Rapeseed Meal Trade ........................................................................................................... 2 49 Rape Meal Utilization .......................................................................................................... 249 Rapeseed Oil Trade and Price .............................................................................................. 250 Rapeseed Oil Per Capita Consumption ............................................................................... 250 Sunflower Area Harvested ................................................................................................... 261 Sunflower Yield .................................................................................................................... 261 Sunflower Trade ................................................................................................................... 262 Sunflower Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ........................................................................ 262 Sunflower Meal Exports ...................................................................................................... 263 Sunflower Meal Imports ...................................................................................................... 263 Sunflower Oil Trade and Price ............................................................................................ 264 Sunflower Oil Per Capita Consumption .............................................................................. 264 Palm Oil Trade and Price ..................................................................................................... 272 Palm Oil Per Capita Consumption ....................................................................................... 272 Peanut Area Harvested ......................................................................................................... 278 Peanut Trade ......................................................................................................................... 278 Cotton Net Exports ............................................................................................................... 286 World Cotton Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ................................................................... 286 Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 287 World Cotton Consumption ................................................................................................. 287 World Sugar Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price .................................................................... 304 World Sugar Beet and Sugarcane Area Harvested .............................................................. 304 Major Sugar Exporters ......................................................................................................... 305 Major Sugar Net Importers .................................................................................................. 305

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World Meat Prices ................................................................................................................ 324 World Meat Production and Trade ....................................................................................... 324 World Meat Trade and U.S. Market Share .......................................................................... 325 EU Per Capita Meat Consumption ...................................................................................... 325 Major Beef Importing Countries ......................................................................................... 328 Beef Export Market Share ................................................................................................... 328 EU Beef Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 329 Live Cattle and Beef Export ................................................................................................ 329 Major Pork Importing Countries ......................................................................................... 332 Pork Export Market Share ................................................................................................... 332 Canadian Pork and Swine Export ........................................................................................ 333 China Pork Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 333 Major Broiler Importing Countries ...................................................................................... 336 Broiler Export Market Share of Selected Countries ........................................................... 336 Per Capita Poultry Consumption ......................................................................................... 337 Brazilian Broiler Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 337 FOB Northern European Dairy Product Prices ................................................................... 377 Annual Growth in Milk Production and Total World Output ............................................. 377 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries .......................................................................... 379 Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries ........................................................................ 379 NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries ............................................................................ 381 WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries ........................................................................... 381

Tables U.S. Economic Projections and Program Provisions ............................................................ 22 Real GDP Projections ............................................................................................................ 27 GDP Deflator Projections (Expressed in Local Currency) ................................................... 28 Exchange Rate Projections (Local Currency per U.S. Dollar) ............................................. 29 Population Projections ........................................................................................................... 30 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Crops .......................................................................... 33 Other Assumptions for Crops ................................................................................................ 34 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Livestock and Dairy Products ................................... 35 Commodity Price Projections ................................................................................................ 40 Policy Prices and World Prices by Commodity .................................................................... 42 U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization........................................................................................ 51 U.S. Corn Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 53 U.S. Sorghum Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 55 U.S. Barley Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 57 U.S. Oat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................ 59 U.S. Hay Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 61 U.S Peanut Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 63 U.S. Soybean Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 65

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U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 66 U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 67 U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 69 U.S. Upland Cotton Supply and Utilization .......................................................................... 71 U.S. Cottonseed Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 72 U.S. Cottonseed Meal Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 73 U.S. Cottonseed Oil Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 73 U.S. Sugar Crop Production .................................................................................................. 75 U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 75 U.S. Beef Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 85 U.S. Pork Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 87 U.S. Broiler Supply and Utilization....................................................................................... 89 U.S. Turkey Supply and Utilization....................................................................................... 90 U.S. Egg Supply and Utilization............................................................................................ 91 U.S. Milk Component Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 93 U.S. Dairy Cows by State ...................................................................................................... 95 U.S. Milk Production by State ............................................................................................... 96 State-Level All Milk Prices .................................................................................................... 97 U.S. Dairy Product Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 99 U.S. Planted and Idled Area ................................................................................................. 109 U.S. Wheat Production......................................................................................................... 111 U.S. Corn Production ........................................................................................................... 112 U.S. Sorghum Production .................................................................................................... 113 U.S. Barley Production ........................................................................................................ 114 U.S. Oat Production ............................................................................................................. 115 U.S. Hay Production ............................................................................................................ 116 U.S. Soybean Production ..................................................................................................... 117 U.S. Rice Production ............................................................................................................ 118 U.S. Upland Cotton Production ........................................................................................... 119 Consumer Price Indexes for Food ....................................................................................... 121 Total Consumer Expenditures for Food .............................................................................. 121 CCC Net Expenditures, by Program ................................................................................... 123 U.S. Cash Receipts from Farming ....................................................................................... 125 U.S. Farm Production Expenses .......................................................................................... 127 U.S. Farm Income Statistics ................................................................................................ 129 FAPRI Crop Insurance Baseline .......................................................................................... 131 Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Fiscal Year ............................................................. 133 Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Fiscal Year .................................................................. 133 Wheat Trade ......................................................................................................................... 137 World Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 142 U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization...................................................................................... 142 Argentine Wheat Supply and Utilization............................................................................. 143 Australian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 143 Canadian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 144

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Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................ 144 European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................. 145 Ukrainian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 145 Japanese Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 146 Russian Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 146 Other Former Soviet Union Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................ 147 Other Western European Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................... 147 Chinese Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 148 High-Income East Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................... 148 Indian Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 149 Pakistani Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 149 Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 150 Brazilian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 150 Mexican Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 151 Other Latin American Wheat Supply and Utilization ......................................................... 151 Algerian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 152 Egyptian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 152 Iranian Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 153 Moroccan Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 153 Tunisian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 154 Other African/Middle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................ 154 Czech Republic Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 155 Hungarian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 155 Polish Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 156 Other Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization ...................................................... 156 Rest-of-World Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 157 Rice Trade ............................................................................................................................ 161 World Rice Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 164 U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 164 Argentine Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 165 Brazilian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 165 Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 166 European Union Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 166 Indian Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 167 Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 167 Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 168 Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 168 Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 169 Philippine Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 169 Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 170 South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 170 Taiwanese Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 171 Thai Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 171 Uruguayan Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 172 Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 172 Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 173

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Corn Trade ............................................................................................................................ 177 Barley Trade ......................................................................................................................... 178 Sorghum Trade ..................................................................................................................... 179 World Corn Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 184 World Barley Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 184 World Sorghum Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 185 U.S. Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................... 186 Argentine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 188 Australian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 189 Canadian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................. 190 Chinese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization..................................................................... 191 Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..................................................... 192 European Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................... 193 South African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................... 194 Ukrainian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 195 Israeli Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 196 Japanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 197 Russian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 198 Other Former Soviet Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..................................... 199 Algerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 200 Egyptian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 201 Nigerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 201 Other African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................... 202 Saudi Arabian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................... 203 Other Middle Eastern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................. 204 Brazilian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 205 Mexican Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 206 Other Latin American Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................. 207 Indian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 208 Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................ 209 Malaysian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 210 Philippine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 210 Pakistani Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 211 South Korean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................... 212 Taiwanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization................................................................. 212 Thai Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................... 213 Vietnamese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 213 Other Asian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 214 Czech Republic Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................ 215 Hungarian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................ 216 Polish Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 217 Other Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization........................................... 218 Rest-of-World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................... 219 Soybean Trade ...................................................................................................................... 223 Soybean Meal Trade ............................................................................................................ 227

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Soybean Oil Trade ................................................................................................................ 230 U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 232 Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 233 Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 234 Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 235 Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 236 Eastern European Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................. 237 European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................... 238 Former Soviet Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ........................................... 239 Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 240 Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 241 South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................... 242 Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................. 243 Rapeseed Trade .................................................................................................................... 245 Rapeseed Meal Trade ........................................................................................................... 245 Rapeseed Oil Trade .............................................................................................................. 246 Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 251 Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 252 Eastern European Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................... 253 European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................. 254 Former Soviet Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization .......................................... 255 Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization .................................................................. 256 Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 257 Sunflower Seed Trade .......................................................................................................... 259 Sunflower Meal Trade .......................................................................................................... 259 Sunflower Oil Trade ............................................................................................................. 260 Argentine Sunflower Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 265 Chinese Sunflower Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 266 Eastern European Sunflower Supply and Utilization ......................................................... 267 European Union Sunflower Supply and Utilization............................................................ 268 Former Soviet Union Sunflower Supply and Utilization .................................................... 269 Palm Trade ............................................................................................................................ 271 Chinese Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 273 European Union Palm Oil Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 273 Indian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 274 Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 274 Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 275 Peanut Trade ......................................................................................................................... 277 U.S. Peanut Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 279 Chinese Peanut Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 280 European Union Peanut Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 281 Indian Peanut Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 282 Cotton Trade ......................................................................................................................... 285 World Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 288 U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 288 African Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 289

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Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 289 Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 290 Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 290 Other Former Soviet Union Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................... 291 Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization ........................................................ 291 Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization ......................................................... 292 Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 292 Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 293 Uzbekistani Cotton Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 293 Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 294 Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 294 Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 295 Eastern European Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 295 European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 296 Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 296 Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 297 Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 297 Other Western European Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................... 298 Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 298 South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 299 Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 299 Sugar Trade .......................................................................................................................... 303 World Sugar Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 306 U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 307 Algerian Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 308 Argentine Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 308 Australian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 309 Brazilian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 309 Canadian Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 310 Chinese Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 310 Colombian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 311 Cuban Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 311 Eastern European Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 312 Egyptian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 312 European Union Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 313 Former Soviet Union Sugar Supply and Utilization ........................................................... 313 Indian Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 314 Indonesian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 314 Iranian Sugar Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 315 Japanese Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 315 Malaysian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 316 Mexican Sugar Supply and Utilization................................................................................ 316 Moroccan Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 317 Pakistani Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 317 Peruvian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 318 Philippine Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 318

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South African Sugar Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 319 South Korean Sugar Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 319 Thai Sugar Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 320 Turkish Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 320 Venezuelan Sugar Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 321 Beef and Veal Trade ............................................................................................................. 327 Pork Trade ............................................................................................................................ 331 Broiler Meat Trade ............................................................................................................... 335 U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 338 Argentine Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 339 Australian Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 340 Brazilian Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 341 Bulgarian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 342 Canadian Meat Supply and Utilization................................................................................ 343 China - Mainland Meat and Egg Supply and Utilization FAPRI Adjusted Data ............... 344 China - Mainland Meat and Egg Supply and Utilization Official Data ............................. 346 China - Hong Kong Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 347 Czech Republic Meat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 348 Estonian Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 349 European Union Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................................... 350 Hungarian Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 351 Indonesian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 352 Japanese Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 353 Latvian Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 354 Lithuanian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 355 Mexican Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 356 New Zealand Meat Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 357 Other Eastern European Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................ 358 Other Former Soviet Union Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................. 359 Philippine Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 360 Polish Meat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 361 Romanian Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 362 Russian Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 363 Slovakian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 364 Slovenian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 365 South Korean Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 366 Taiwanese Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 367 Thai Meat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 368 Ukrainian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 369 Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries ......................................................... 370 Butter Trade .......................................................................................................................... 378 Cheese Trade ........................................................................................................................ 378 Nonfat Dry Milk Trade ........................................................................................................ 380 Whole Milk Powder Trade ................................................................................................... 380 U.S. Dairy Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 382

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Argentine Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 383 Australian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 384 Brazilian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 385 Bulgaria Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 386 Canadian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 387 Czech Republic Dairy Supply and Utilization .................................................................... 388 European Union Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 389 Hungarian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 390 Indian Dairy Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 391 Japanese Dairy Supply and Utilization................................................................................ 392 Mexican Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 393 New Zealand Dairy Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 394 Polish Dairy Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 395 Romanian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 396 Russian Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 397 Slovakian Republic Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 398 Slovenian Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 399 Swiss Dairy Supply and Utilization..................................................................................... 400 Ukrainian Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 401 Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Selected Countries ........................................................ 402

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Abbreviations and Acronyms This list of abbreviations and acronyms used in the Agricultural Outlook is provided for the convenience of our readers. Abbreviations and acronyms typically are not spelled out in the text. ARPA BSE CAP CCC CEECs CIF CPI CRP CSF CWT DIAP DEIP EEP EU FAIR Act FAPRI FMD FMMO FOB FOR FSU GATT GDP ha HFCS kg MERCOSUR mha mmt mt NAFTA NFD NIS OIE OTMS PFC/MLA PIK rBST SMP STRV tmt TRQ WMP WTO UR URAA

Agricultural Risk Protection Act bovine spongiform encephalopathy Common Agricultural Policy Commodity Credit Corporation Central and Eastern European Countries Cost, Insurance, and Freight Consumer Price Index Conservation Reserve Program classical swine fever hundredweight Dairy Industry Adjustment Program Dairy Export Incentive Program Export Enhancement Program European Union Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute foot-and-mouth disease Federal Milk Market Order freight on board Farmer-Owned Reserve Former Soviet Union General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade gross domestic product hectare high-fructose corn syrup kilogram The Common Market of the Southern Cone of South America million hectares million metric tons metric ton North American Free Trade Agreement nonfat dry milk Newly Independent States Office International des Epizooties Over Thirty Month Slaughter Scheme Production Flexibility Contract/Market Loss Assistance payment in kind recombinant bovine somatotropin skim milk powder short tons raw value thousand metric tons tariff rate quota whole milk powder World Trade Organization Uruguay Round Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture

Executive Summary: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 1

Executive Summary The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) prepares a preliminary agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade every fall. This is followed by an outside review, re-evaluation of projections, and completion of the final baseline. The FAPRI 2001 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents these final projections for domestic and world agricultural markets. FAPRI projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements. FAPRI projections do not include conjectures on potential policy changes, such as those resulting from the likely accession of China to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The value of U.S. agricultural exports is expected to increase this year. A gradual recovery in agricultural prices from last year’s 13-year lows drives the value of agricultural exports up by 3.6 percent in 2000/01, and both export volume and value will continue to rise 2 to 4 percent for the next decade. The value of U.S. exports will increase more than 46 percent by 2010, mostly through high-value products. An 18.9 million metric ton (mmt) rise in grain and feed exports, predominately corn exports, also accounts for 27 percent of the total increase in export value. Indirect exports of corn—measured by the feed-grain equivalent of beef, pork, and poultry exports—will exceed 7 mmt by 2010, an increase of 43 percent over 1999/00 levels. Together, direct and indirect exports of corn increase by more than 25 mmt. With the weak euro and gradually rising wheat prices, U.S. exports face competition from the European Union (EU) on world markets. In 2000, the EU exported some wheat without subsidies, and Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms keep EU wheat prices below world prices for the next decade. On average, U.S. wheat exports grow 1.6 percent annually over the next decade. U.S. exports of oilseeds and oilseed products should increase substantially, but strong competition from South American exporters allows the United States to capture just 5 mmt of the projected 20 mmt increase in soybean trade. Despite low prices, soybean area in Brazil increases by 1 million hectares over the next five years. Meat consumption increases by 4.4 kilograms (kg) per person in the next decade, driven by rising per capita incomes, particularly in developing Asia, with its increasing population and continuing urbanization. World meat trade increases by 2.6 mmt, with annual growth of 2.7 percent in beef trade, 3.4 percent in pork, and 1.8 percent in poultry. Low-cost producers, including the United States, Argentina, Canada, and Brazil, gain export market share. The world price of beef increases by 3.3 percent annually over the next three years, while over the baseline the price of pork increases by 0.5 to 2.1 percent, and the price of poultry remains virtually flat. Higher meat prices induce world meat production to increase by 27.1 mmt. Productivity improvements and product innovations, driven by adoption of new technologies and favorable structural transformation, expand production potential. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks plague the EU. As a consequence, the EU has implemented a Purchase for Destruction Scheme, which is projected to reduce EU beef production by 10.4 percent in 2001. The outbreaks have sharply decreased European beef demand and induced the continuation of the Over Thirty Month Slaughter Scheme (OTMS) in the United Kingdom (U.K.). These destruction schemes moderate the short-run decline in beef prices. Hog prices recovered in 2000 to average $44.70 per hundredweight, but U.S. market hog inventories are expected to reach 55.4 million head this year, forcing hog prices back below $35 in 2002. Hog prices rebound in 2003 and remain between $39 and $46 per hundredweight. With competitive prices, U.S. pork exports rise an average of 6 percent annually over the next decade, exceeding 1 mmt in 2010. U.S. broiler prices remain stable at around $0.57 per pound, and exports increase to 2.78 mmt. The largest growth markets for poultry imports are Japan, China, Russia, and Hong Kong. Brazil’s currency depreciates against the U.S. dollar throughout the baseline, giving Brazilian poultry exporters a competitive edge and enabling them to increase their share of poultry trade from 18 to 26 percent.

Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 3

Overview of the 2001 U.S. and World Outlook Major Conditioning Assumptions The Macroeconomic Environment Baseline projections largely depend on two external factors, macroeconomic assumptions and agricultural policy assumptions. Macroeconomic projections used in the FAPRI baseline were obtained from Standard and Poor’s DRI. By 2000, world economic growth had largely recovered from the effects of the Asian and Russian economic crises. World real gross domestic product (GDP) grows an average of 3.2 percent over the baseline period. Most Asian and Latin American countries continue the strong recovery exhibited in 1999 and 2000 in the baseline period, reaching long-run growth rates near 5 percent by 2002. The countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) showed strong economic recovery in 2000, and they continue to grow at an average of 4.5 percent annually throughout the baseline. Among developed countries, the United States experiences a slowing in the growth of economic activity in 2001 to 2.7 percent, but growth is robust for the remainder of the baseline, averaging 3.5 percent annually in real terms. The European Union experiences a gradual decline in real GDP growth, reaching a long-run increase of 2.3 percent annually. Japan, which has the second largest economy in the world, averages 1.4 percent annual growth in real GDP over the baseline. Asian countries exhibit strong growth in the baseline, with real GDP increasing between 4 and 8 percent annually. Latin American countries experience stable economic growth between 4 and 6 percent annually over the baseline, and much of Africa and the Middle East demonstrate comparable economic strength. Most currencies in developed countries appreciate relative to the U.S. dollar during the baseline period. The euro, which depreciated more than 15 percent in 2000, appreciates 7.4 percent relative to the U.S. dollar in 2002 and appreciates more gradually for the remainder of the baseline, reaching $1.13/euro by 2010. The yen depreciates in 2001/02 and then moderately appreciates for the remainder of the projection period, reaching 110 yen per U.S. dollar in 2010. Currencies of all major exporting countries appreciate relative to the U.S. dollar, except the Brazilian real, which depreciates more than 4 percent annually. Agricultural Policy Assumptions The FAPRI baseline assumes that all government programs and international agreements currently in effect will remain in place over the projection period. There has been a significant impact on agricultural trade by the unilateral trade liberalization and farm policy reforms undertaken by various countries. Notable farm policy reforms included in the FAPRI outlook include the 1996 U.S. Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act and the Berlin Accord on Agenda 2000 reforms in the European Union. Although the FAIR Act only includes provisions through 2002, these provisions are extended at 2002 levels to the end of the baseline period. Loan rates are fixed in the baseline at the maximum levels allowed, and the Export Enhancement Program (EEP), though available, is not used in the projection period. The baseline also incorporates the provisions of the 2000 emergency spending package. The provisions of the Berlin Accord are implemented in the baseline as outlined in the legislation, including the dairy sector reforms from 2005 to 2007. Among the multilateral trade agreements, the Uruguay Round (UR) Agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) has had the largest impact on agricultural trade. The largest, most direct impacts of the UR agreement are the disciplinary actions placed on export subsidies and market access. These changes have their greatest effect on markets for wheat, coarse grains, meats, and dairy products. Industrialized members of the WTO implemented the last Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) concessions in 2000, while developing members will spread out their concessions until 2004. After 2004, all WTO provisions are assumed to remain constant until 2010/11. All members of the WTO returned to negotiations in 1999, which did not lead to any foreseeable policy change in the medium term. The potential results of these negotiations are not accounted for in this analysis. Finally, the FAPRI baseline does not make any assumptions on China’s accession to the WTO or enlargement of the European Union to include the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs).

4 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

As in the 2000 FAPRI outlook, the adjusted Chinese data series were used in the FAPRI international livestock model to generate the projections shown in the world meat section of this publication. The adjusted estimates of historical production and consumption are available online at www.fapri.iastate.edu in the spreadsheets containing the country-specific projections for the livestock sector. For comparison purposes, FAPRI provides projections based on official data. These projections were derived by applying the year-to-year percentage change generated from the model projections to the official historical data. Discrepancies between supply and demand were allocated evenly to production and consumption projections to force an equilibrium in the domestic market.

The Outlook for U.S. Agriculture Crops For the U.S. crops sector, the short-term projections suggest continued pressure on prices, with the long-range outlook showing modest improvement. Since 1996, the crops sector generally has seen favorable yields and higher acreage levels while at the same time demand has been rather sluggish. The result has been that production has exceeded disappearance and stock levels have recovered. Subsequently, prices have fallen, in some cases reaching the lowest levels since the mid 1980s. Looking forward, under the assumption of trend yields, prices for wheat and feed grains show modest recovery in 2001, but they still remain below historical averages. Both domestic and export demand continue to strengthen. For soybeans and cotton, little if any price recovery is expected for 2001. Planted area for corn and wheat declines in 2001. The decline in corn area can be attributed to the increase in fertilizer prices, as well as strong competition from soybeans due to the soybean loan rate. Continued weakness in wheat prices, coupled with poor planting conditions this past fall, lead to the lowest wheat area since 1973. For soybeans, the loan rate leads to another increase in planted area. Looking toward the end of the baseline, crop prices recover to levels in line with historical averages. For example, corn prices reach $2.50 per bushel, and wheat prices top $3.50 by 2010. Soybean prices remain below historical averages due to continued pressures from the supply side. The loan rate allows U.S. acreage to remain high despite low market prices. In addition, acreage in South America continues to expand. Income growth fuels the demand for food on a global basis, allowing U.S. exports to expand. In addition, domestic demand expands as the U.S. livestock sector increases production levels. With demand growth outpacing supply, stock levels of the major grains and oilseeds decline from their recent highs. Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy The outlook for the U.S. cattle industry is characterized by strong prices through 2003. The beef cycle is in a liquidation phase of the herd, continuing to tighten the supply of feeder calves. The result is a strengthening in prices through 2003, with feeder steer prices averaging above $95 per hundredweight. For beef, the long-term outlook depends on relatively stable domestic demand and continued growth in exports. The U.S. pork sector experienced recovery in 2000 as prices rebounded from the low levels of the previous two years. As a result, increases in the breeding herd lead to higher production in 2001 and 2002. Prices for 2002 are pressured lower due to the higher production. While still below the levels observed in the mid 1990s, pork prices recover and average above $40 per hundredweight for much of the projection period. Despite a stable to slightly declining breeding inventory, production approaches 22 billion pounds by 2010 based on gains in productivity. Broiler production reaches 30.9 billion pounds in 2001, an increase of 800 million pounds over the 2000 level. The long-term outlook for broiler production is for continued growth, but at a somewhat slower rate than that seen during the 1990s. Twelve-city broiler prices increase in 2001, reaching slightly over $0.57 per pound. Prices remain flat over the baseline as inexpensive feed prices keep supplies increasing. U.S. dairy cow numbers decline over the projection period as reductions in many states are not offset by growth in areas like the Southwest. Dairy cow numbers continue to increase in California over the baseline period. The rate of growth is slower than that seen during the 1990s. Milk production also continues its growth, as the increase in productivity more than offsets a declining herd size. With the assumed removal of price supports, the average price

Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 5

for “all milk” falls to $11.78 per hundredweight in 2002. As demand for cheese and fluid milk increases throughout the decade, prices recover to $13.35 by 2010. Government Outlays and Farm Income The combination of two assistance packages and heavy loan deficiency payments (LDPs) pushed government costs to a record $32 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2000. Outlays fall to $8 billion by the end of the baseline with one-half of the costs associated with contract payments authorized under the FAIR Act. The decline from FY 2003 to the end of the baseline is associated with further LDP reductions. Increased production and higher prices lead to recovery in crop cash receipts over the baseline period. For 2001, receipts grow by almost $4 billion. Growth in 2001 livestock receipts is primarily due to cattle and broilers. Dairy and broilers account for the long-term expansion in receipts. With higher fuel costs, expenses for manufactured inputs grew by almost $3 billion in 2000. Expenses show another significant increase in 2001 due to higher fertilizer prices. Expenses moderate somewhat in 2002, as fuel and fertilizer prices are projected to soften. The combination of lower government payments and higher production expenses leads to a decline of almost $6 billion in net farm income in 2001. Net income is pushed even lower in 2002 as government payments continue to decline. In addition, lower prices for hogs and milk squeeze total receipts.

The Outlook for World Agriculture Wheat Since peaking in 1996/97, world wheat area has declined continuously, falling nearly 15 mha. In 2000/01, world wheat area falls below its 1995/96 level. However, strengthening world wheat prices reverse this downward trend by 2001/02. World wheat area rises 4.3 mha between 2000/01 and 2002/03, mainly due to growth in the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine. Wheat area rises more slowly after 2003, averaging 0.1 percent annually. Boosted by growing international demand, the average U.S. wheat price at Gulf ports grows 2.76 percent annually over the baseline, reaching $159 per mt in 2010/11. World wheat production grows an average of 1.44 percent annually, with a total increase of nearly 90 mmt over the outlook period. The EU accounts for approximately one-quarter of this increase. World wheat trade decreases slightly in the first two years of projection, losing approximately 2.5 mmt in 2001/02 as compared to 1999/00 levels. In the remainder of the outlook period, world wheat trade is pushed up by the increasing demand in developing countries. World wheat trade rises nearly 21 percent, adding 18.9 mmt over the next decade. On the import side, the greatest growth occurs in Asian countries, which increasingly depend on imported wheat to meet income-driven growth in domestic wheat demand. In the last three years, China has almost disappeared from world wheat markets. This changes during the baseline period, with China accounting for a quarter of the expansion in world wheat trade. Chinese imports rise from 1 mmt in 2000/01 to 5.65 mmt in 2010/11. Although Chinese imports remain far below their historical levels, China establishes itself again as a major buyer on world wheat markets. High-income East Asian countries, which include South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, depend heavily on imported wheat to meet their increasing domestic demand. Imports in this region increase 19.26 percent over the outlook period, continuously rising from 5.08 mmt in 2000/01 to 6.05 mmt in 2010/11. India has been an unpredictable player on international wheat markets for the last decade, alternating as an importer or exporter of wheat depending on domestic production. India’s exports reach approximately 1 mmt in 2000/01 and then decline steadily, as domestic consumption rises faster than domestic supply. During the second half of the projection period, India becomes a net importer of wheat, with imports reaching 2.2 mmt by the end of the baseline. Brazil increases its imports by 8.3 percent over the baseline, mainly because of Argentina’s competitive advantage within MERCOSUR. Low-cost production in Argentina tends to restrict growth in Brazilian wheat area, which is almost flat during the next decade. Rapidly increasing domestic demand and continued trade liberalization contribute to the more than 30 percent increase in Mexico’s wheat imports over the baseline. Mexican wheat imports peak at nearly 2.5 mmt by 2010/11.

6 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Droughts in two consecutive years trigger a collapse in Iranian wheat production and force Iran to buy significant quantities of wheat on the world market to meet domestic needs. With weather back to normal conditions, Iranian wheat imports fall nearly 3 mmt in 2001/02 as compared to 2000/01 levels. However, beyond this date, Iran imports increase steadily to nearly 6 mmt, as consumption growth outpaces increases in production. On the export side, the EU benefits the most from the expansion of world wheat trade. Despite a gradual appreciation of the euro, the EU wheat price remains below the world price, allowing EU exports to be competitive on world wheat markets without subsidies. During the next decade, EU wheat production rises steadily at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent. The EU is expected to expand its exports by nearly 12 mmt and capture more than half of the expansion in world wheat trade. Other traditional wheat exporters also benefit from the expansion of world wheat trade. Though exports rise slowly, Canada remains the second-largest wheat exporter until 2007/08, when the EU overtakes Canada and moves into the second-place position behind the United States. Australian wheat production grows 28.6 percent over the baseline, the highest rate among major producers. This growth, coupled with a slow increase in domestic consumption, enables Australia to increase its exports more than 3.4 mmt over the outlook period. With exports growing at a slightly faster pace than world trade, Australia increases its market share to between 16 and 17 percent of world wheat market. Argentina, the fourth largest wheat exporter, expands its exports by 2.1 mmt over the outlook period, exporting more than 14 mmt in 2010/11. In the context of expanding world wheat trade, U.S. wheat exports grow slower than other competitors. U.S. exports rise at an average annual rate of less than 0.5 percent, peaking at 29.42 mmt in 2010/11. As a result, U.S. market share drops from 31 percent to 27 percent by the end of the outlook period. Coarse Grains During the last five years, coarse grain markets have experienced a sharp decrease in prices in response to weak import demand, along with relatively high yields. As a result, world coarse grain area lost more than 15.4 mha between 1996/97 and 1999/00. The response to the decline in prices has been the strongest for barley, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the decrease in world coarse grain area. During the same period, the decline in world corn area roughly totaled only 2 mha, despite the fact that world corn prices were 48 percent lower in 1999/00 than in 1995/96. In 2000/01, coarse grain area looses another 3 mha compared to 1999/00. Thus, world coarse grain production decreases nearly 18 mmt this year. From 2001/02 onward, this declining trend in coarse grain area is reversed, as feed grain demand recovers in major importing countries. World coarse grain area grows slowly over the next decade, adding another 3.8 mha, with increases in corn and barley area partially offset by a decrease in sorghum area. Despite this meager 0.16 percent annual growth rate, coarse grain production grows by 137 mmt (an increase of nearly 18 percent) during the baseline, with the bulk of the growth resulting from yield growth in corn production. Recovery in Asian countries and a corresponding increase in livestock production contribute to the 1.35 percent annual growth in world coarse grain consumption over the next decade. Driven by rising demand, coarse grain prices rise over 2 percent annually during the baseline. World coarse grain trade is projected to expand by more than 27 percent, growing 2.4 percent annually from 2000/01 to 2010/11. World corn trade grows the fastest among coarse grains, expanding more than 30 percent over the next decade. An additional 20.6 mmt, representing more than 80 percent of the expansion of world coarse grain trade, are brought to international corn markets during the baseline. More than 90 percent of the additional shipments are destined for developing countries to meet sharply increasing feed demand. The additional demand for corn imports comes primarily from Asian countries. Within Asia, the most important importers of corn are Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Japan, whose corn imports ranged from 16 to 16.4 mmt in the last five years, remains the largest Asian corn importer, absorbing nearly 24 percent of world corn trade in 2000/01. Lower feed demand, due to the decline in Japanese livestock production and trade liberalization measures, results in a flat to slightly declining trend in Japanese corn imports over the baseline. South Korea is the second largest Asian corn importer. South Korean corn imports are expected to increase from 8 to 9.8 mmt during the baseline, enabling South Korea to meet domestic feed demand. Finally, growth in Taiwanese corn imports is steady but slow, with imports increasing from 5.1 to 6.1 mmt.

Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 7

Livestock recovery and rebuilding of hog inventories contribute to an increase in feed demand in this country, but this is partially offset by a strengthening of environmental restrictions. Recently, China re-established itself as a significant corn exporter on international markets, with exports reaching nearly 10 mmt in 1999/00. However, in the mid to long run, China is an important potential market for corn. As soon as this year, Chinese corn exports are expected to be less than half of the 1999/00 level. With rising domestic feed use continuing to sap excess supplies, China increasingly depends on imported corn during the baseline. Consequently, China is expected to progressively disappear from the corn export market and become a net importer by 2005/06. By the end of the outlook period, Chinese corn imports total 6.9 mmt. Latin American countries represent the second largest growth market behind Asia. Mexico is the largest corn importer in this region, importing 6.3 mmt in 2000/01.Over the outlook period, Mexican corn imports grow nearly 2 percent annually, due to steadily increasing feed use and in response to a gradual reduction of over-quota tariff rates under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). By the end of the projection period, Mexico is importing 7.6 mmt. On the export side, Argentina appears to be the main competitor to the United States, but its ability to secure a large part of the increase in world corn trade is somewhat limited. As almost no area shifts into corn production during the baseline, corn output grows 2.3 mmt through yield increases alone. Increases in feed use, due to expansion of domestic livestock production, also reduce Argentina’s potential to export large quantities of corn. Nevertheless, Argentina expands its exports from 8.5 to 10 mmt during the baseline period, but its market share drops from 12.6 to 11.4 percent. In this context, the United States benefits the most from the expansion of world corn trade. The U.S. captures more than 90 percent of the increase in corn trade, with the U.S. market share rising from 79 to 82 percent. Barley trade expands 2.4 mmt over the baseline, growing an average 1.3 percent annually (less than half the pace of corn trade expansion). More than 70 percent of this increase occurs in China, to meet increasing brewing industry demand, and in Saudi Arabia, to meet higher demand for feed use. The EU captures most of the growth in barley trade, expanding its exports to more than 13 mmt by 2010/11. The EU’s barley export share increases from 61 to 66 percent, whereas Australian and Canadian market shares decline slightly. World sorghum trade is projected to increase by almost 2 mmt over the next decade, primarily because of growth in Mexican imports, which are partially offset by a decline in Japanese imports. The majority of the increase in sorghum imports is satisfied by an expansion of U.S. exports, from 5.1 to 6.5 mmt over the next decade. Rice Rice issues are politically very sensitive in Asian countries, where the bulk of the world’s rice production occurs, and achieving rice self-sufficiency is touted as an important goal by many Asian governments. As a result, the world rice market is strikingly thin compared to markets for other grains, with roughly 5 percent of the total world production traded on international markets. Recent fluctuations in world trade also show how responsive the world rice market can be. In 1997/98, world rice trade peaked at 22.7 mmt, increasing by 6.2 mmt in one year in response to droughts in Indonesia and the Philippines. Between 1997/98 and 1999/00, world rice trade has decreased approximately 3 mmt and rice prices have fallen nearly 24 percent. In 2000/01, continued urbanization and competition from other crops lead to a 2.3 mha reduction in world rice area as compared to 1999/00 levels. As a consequence, world rice production is 400.6 mmt in 2000/01, or 4.4 mmt lower than last year. In the next decade, world rice area loses another 2.4 mha. Nevertheless, in the long run, steadily rising yields offset the decrease in rice area, allowing rice production to reach 437.3 mmt by 2010/11. World rice consumption rises at nearly the same rate as production over the baseline. However, rice consumption patterns have significantly changed in recent years. The growth in rice consumption mainly occurs in nontraditional rice-consuming countries, such as the U.S., the EU, and Canada. Conversely, per capita rice consumption in Asian countries declines as a consequence of urbanization and income growth and as Asian consumers tend to favor substitution of wheat for rice in their diets. Over the next decade, world rice consumption increases 36.1 mmt, or nearly 9 percent. In the same time period, world rice trade rises 6.4 mmt, or nearly 33 percent. Aided by the decline

8 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

in domestic consumption per person, excess supplies in Asian countries expand, allowing Asia to capture most of the increase in rice trade. Indonesia and the Philippines are the most important importers on world rice markets. Indonesia remains the world’s largest importer during the baseline, with imports accounting for slightly less than 10 percent of world rice trade. Indonesia becomes increasingly dependant on imported rice to meet its domestic needs, importing an additional 700 tmt over the outlook period. The Philippines increases its imports by approximately 1 mmt, nearly doubling its share of world rice trade and accounting for nearly one-sixth of the trade expansion. As for Japan and South Korea, WTO commitments contribute to a steady decline in rice area and weak growth yields. Consequently, rice production falls 4 percent in Japan and 7.3 percent in South Korea. Japanese imports reach 600 tmt in 2010/11, as compared to 150 tmt in 2000/01. Thailand is the world’s largest rice exporter. Thai rice production grows 10.6 percent over the baseline, mostly through yield increases. Rising production and relatively flat consumption enables Thai exports to grow 27.4 percent over the next decade, capturing 27 percent of the increase in world rice trade. Besides Thailand, Vietnam and India secure most of the remaining increase in rice trade, seizing respectively 27.2 and 34.6 percent of the trade expansion over the outlook period. Despite a slight decline in area, Indian rice production grows an average of 1.2 percent, enabling India to double its market share over the baseline and to become the world’s third largest exporter by 2008/09. Driven by yield increases, Vietnamese production grows at an average rate of nearly 1.8 percent a year. Vietnamese rice exports reach 5.5 mmt by 2010/11, increasing 1.75 mmt over the baseline. Over the last three years, China has established itself as a significant exporter on the world rice market. In 2000/01, Chinese rice exports reach nearly 3 mmt. Relatively flat consumption during the early years of the outlook period, along with increasing yields, allows China’s market share to peak at 15.75 percent in 2003/04. However, over the long run, as Chinese rice consumption outpaces production, China’s market share drops to nearly 11 percent in 2010/11, with Chinese exports falling just below their 2000/01 levels. Besides Asian players, Argentina and Uruguay take advantage of duty-free access to the rice market in Brazil and other MERCOSUR countries to increase their exports by, respectively, 620 and 330 tmt by 2010/11. U.S. rice consumption grows nearly 2.1 percent annually over the next decade. With both area and yield increases in the early years of the baseline, growth in domestic production is able to meet domestic needs and allow increases in U.S. exports until 2003/04. In the latter half of the decade, however, U.S. rice exports decline, falling to 2 mmt by 2010/11. Oilseeds After reaching record levels in 1997, average oilseed prices have declined by roughly 40 percent. As a result of reductions in sunflower and rapeseed area, world oilseed area in 2000/01 decreases to 127 mha, roughly 1 percent below the 1999/00 level. In 2001/02, continued weak oilseed prices restrict the expansion of oilseed area in several major producing countries. Total oilseed area is projected to increase by 13 mha during the baseline, with most of the growth occurring after oilseed prices substantially recover in 2004/05. More than half of the growth in total area occurs in the South American soybean sector. Total oilseed production reaches 286 mmt in 2010/11, with the increase driven by growth in both area and yields. Oilseed crush increases 18 percent to meet the rising demand for oilseed meal and oil. Strong income growth in developing countries increases the demand for vegetable oils and livestock products, which increases the demand for oilseed oils and meals. Each importing country’s domestic policies and crushing capacity dictate whether oilseeds or oilseed products are imported. Taking these factors into account, world oilseed trade is projected to increase by 41 percent, while meal and oil trade increases 10 and 13 percent, respectively. Soybean area in 2000/01 increases 4 percent compared to last year, with the largest growth occurring in China and Argentina. Soybean area in the United States expands in response to the loan rate, which acts as the floor price and encourages soybean production, and to higher fertilizer prices, which shifts plantings in the Corn Belt away from corn and into soybeans.

Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 9

Soybeans account for the bulk of the growth in import demand, followed by rapeseed and sunflower seed. The majority of the increase in soybean imports occurs in China and the EU. China emerges as the second largest importer of soybeans because of strong per capita oil demand, demand for meal from the livestock sector, and Chinese grain policies. Chinese soybean net imports more than double over the baseline, rising from 7.6 mmt in 2000/01 to 16.3 mmt in 2010/11. The EU, the largest importer of soybeans in the world, increases its imports by 1.5 mmt over the baseline. Brazil captures 51 percent of the trade expansion, and the U.S. and Argentina will split the remaining growth evenly. Rapeseed trade grows at an annual rate of about 1 percent to 5.2 mmt by 2010/11. Canada dominates the export market for rapeseed, while China and Japan account for more than 90 percent of rapeseed imports. Oilseed meal consumption increases sharply from 139 mmt to nearly 169 mmt by the end of the projection period. The highest absolute increase is expected in soy meal consumption, which grows by 20 mmt. Soy meal also accounts for the majority of the growth in oilseed meal trade. The EU is the largest importer of soy meal, and its imports increase from 15 mmt in 2000/01 to 16.5 mmt in 2010/11. Apart from the EU, other growth markets for soy meal include Eastern Europe, South Korea, and Canada. With strong growth in soybean imports and increased domestic crush, China and Taiwan become small net exporters of soybean meal by the end of the projection period. Increasing incomes in less-developed countries play a crucial role in the more than 15 mmt increase in vegetable oil consumption by 2010/11. On a per capita basis, world vegetable oil consumption is expected to increase by an average of 0.26 kg per person annually over the baseline. Palm oil consumption increases 24 percent, while sunflower oil and soybean oil consumption increase 22 percent and 18 percent, respectively. Chinese soy oil net imports increase from 0.60 mmt to 1.18 mmt, making China the largest soybean oil importer. India becomes the second largest soybean oil importer, with its net imports reaching 1.10 mmt. India is the largest importer of rapeseed oil, and continued growth in population and income increases its imports from 370 tmt in 1999/00 to 803 tmt by 2010/11. Livestock and Poultry The general outlook for the world meat sector in the next decade is good. Consumption, production, and trade in meat rise, with world meat prices showing moderate strength. On the demand side, consumption of meat products increases as most countries in the world post reasonable income growth, with Asian economies growing the fastest at 5.6 to 6.3 percent annually. Meanwhile, meat production capacity continues to expand. Structural transformation into largersized operations leads to the adoption of technological improvements, advanced management practices, and product innovation. Moreover, several policy and institutional changes around the globe are improving the functioning of world markets. A list of examples includes market-oriented domestic policy reforms, such as the Agenda-2000 reforms in the European Union; trade liberalizations in South Korea, Mexico, and Europe (including zero-for-zero agreements); and favorable institutional arrangements, such as the EU-U.S. Veterinary Equivalency Agreement. Per capita consumption of beef, pork, and poultry increases 4.6 kilograms between 2000 and 2010, with Asia posting the largest increase, followed by the Americas, the Former Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Higher meat demand exerts upward pressure on meat prices, resulting in a moderate strengthening of prices. The beef price increases 3.27 percent in the next three years. Pork prices cycle throughout the baseline, with prices at successive peaks increasing 0.5 to 2.1 percent from peak to peak. The poultry price has an average increase of 0.36 percent annually throughout the decade. Responding to the higher meat prices, world meat production rises 17 percent during the projection period, amounting to an increase of 27.39 mmt. Broiler production shows the fastest growth, followed by pork and beef production. Because meat consumption growth occurs mostly in Asia—particularly in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, all traditionally meat deficit countries—meat trade satisfies some of the rising demand, which increases by 2.61 million metric tons, or 27.81 percent, over the next decade. The increase in meat trade is dominated by pork trade, the leading meat in Asia, followed by beef, the leading meat in the Americas, and then poultry. Low-cost producers from the Americas capture a growing share of international meat trade throughout the baseline. With abundant feed supplies, advanced production technologies, adequate transport and storage infrastructure, and exceptional sanitary and food safety controls, the U.S. and Canada increase their share of the international meat market. The U.S. alone captures 42 percent of the growth in meat trade during the decade. Other gainers include Brazil

10 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

The BSE Crisis in Europe BSE was first diagnosed in the U.K. in 1986. BSE is a disease of the brain in cattle caused by an infectious protein called a “prion”, and has been transmitted primarily through ingestion of feedstuffs containing infected meat and bone meal. As a consequence of the practice of feeding of mammalian protein (such as meat and bone meal) to cattle, BSE reached epidemic proportions in the U.K. in 1992 and 1993, with reported confirmed cases of 37,280 and 35,090, respectively. To date, the U.K. has reported 177,780 BSE cases on 35,156 farms. Since the discovery of BSE, consumer fears about the safety of European beef have affected European meat consumption twice in crisis proportions. The first instance occurred in March of 1996 following the announcement from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries’ (MAFF) BSE Advisory Committee that, “although there is no direct evidence of a link, on current data and in the absence of any credible alternative the most likely explanation at present is that cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jackob Disease (vCJD) are linked to exposure to BSE before the introduction of the Specified Bovine Offal (SBO) ban in 1989.” After the announcement, per capita consumption in the U.K. declined 16 percent. Also, as BSE cases were reported in other European countries, beef per capita consumption in Portugal, Ireland, and France decreased by 22, 12, and 8 percent, respectively. Countries with no BSE cases during this period include Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain. Nevertheless, consumers in these countries also reduced beef consumption by 2 to 7 percent. Only Austria, Belgium-Luxemburg, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden increased beef consumption during this period, by 2 to 6 percent. International markets also reacted to the MAFF announcement, and exports from the U.K. and other affected member states were banned within the EU and by many beef-importing countries outside Europe. World net beef trade in 1996 dropped by 1.6 percent, and EU average beef exports for 1995-1996 were 12.86 percent lower compared to the average of the two previous years. However, a large part of the reduction in EU beef exports was a result of the restrictions placed on the EU’s subsidized exports by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). To restore consumer confidence in the safety of beef products, the EU initiated several measures, including implementing an identification and registration system for cattle, banning the use of mammalian meat and bone meal in animal feed, removing beef from cattle slaughtered after the age of 30 months from the food chain (OTMS), and removing Specified Risk Materials that potentially harbor detectable BSE infectivity from the human food and animal feed chain. Per capita beef consumption in the EU returned to the pre-crisis level as early as 1999. New BSE cases in the U.K. dropped from the peak of 277 per 1,000 animals to only 24. Beef exports were at the maximum subsidized level allowed by GATT. The second BSE crisis occurred in 2000, just as the EU beef sector was moving out from under the shadow of the first BSE crisis. The EU began implementing Agenda 2000 reforms to further balance the beef sector and make EU beef more competitive on both domestic and international meat markets. But these efforts were interrupted in late October 2000 by an increasing number of BSE cases discovered in continental Europe. In contrast to the decline in BSE cases in the U.K., cases in other member states have increased an average of 77 percent since 1996, particularly in France, Ireland, and Portugal. Although the rate of infection is negligible at 0.66 cases per 1,000 animals compared to U.K.’s 297 cases at its peak, beef consumption has declined significantly throughout most of the EU. The credibility of public announcements that EU beef is safe to consume received damaging blows with each new case of BSE reported, particularly cases reported in countries with no prior incidence of BSE. Moreover, violations of safety measures reported in popular media fed consumer fears. In France, beef consumption declined by 47 percent in December 2000, and even with a partial recovery by mid February 2001, beef consumption remains 24 percent below the level in February 2000. On December 12, 2000, the EU Beef Management Committee ratified a series of measures designed to further ensure the safety of beef for consumers and provide support for the beef market. The measures included more flexible public intervention; testing and purchase for destruction until June 30, 2001, for cattle over 30 months old; continuation of the OTMS in the U.K.; and an advance on premiums from 60 to 80 percent. The Purchase for Destruction Scheme is financed 70 percent by the EU Commission and 30 percent by member states, while testing is financed equally by the Commission and member states. Although the FAPRI outlook was generated while the BSE crisis in Europe was still unfolding, the outlook does incorporate the impacts of recent events in its EU projections. The outlook assumes that EU beef consumption declines 6.1 percent (from 1999 levels) in 2000 and declines an additional 8.3 percent in 2001. Beef consumption in the EU is assumed to recover slightly in the middle of the decade as the BSE scare wanes, and then it continues to its long-term declining trend. Beef exports stay at 68 percent of the GATT limit from 2000 to 2005 and then climb to 83 percent in the remainder of the decade. On the supply side, the Purchase for Destruction is assumed to remain in effect from 2000 to 2004, while the OTMS in the U.K. continues throughout the baseline. Production recovers slightly following the termination of the Purchase for Destruction scheme, but a decline in dairy cattle inventories as a result of rising productivity causes beef production to decline toward the end of the baseline. With these shocks and adjustments in the beef sector, the beef price drops for three consecutive years, with the greatest decline in 2001 at 10.7 percent. Beef prices recover in 2004-2005 before declining an average of 1.95 percent annually until 2010.

Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 11

and Argentina. The Brazilian currency devalues 5.6 percent annually, improving its competitive edge relative to other meat exporting countries. However, Brazil’s export growth is constrained by sanitary considerations. Argentina, on the other hand, has been declared FMD-free and is able to penetrate new markets, especially the lucrative markets in Asia, which allows Argentina to regain international market share that was lost in the late 1990s. The opening of this decade was characterized by disruptions in world meat markets caused by sanitary issues. The most recent and much publicized incident is the BSE crisis in Europe that started late in 2000 and is still developing. As a result, Europe’s share of international meat trade has declined, as major importers have imposed restrictions or total bans on importation of EU beef products. In the early part of 2000, FMD outbreaks in Japan and South Korea closed the Japanese pork import market to pork imports from South Korea, as did the FMD outbreak in Taiwan in 1997. Similarly, cases of FMD reported in Brazil and Argentina were a setback to the anticipated entry of meat products from South America into lucrative markets in North America, Europe, and Asia. Beef The brightest sector in the world meat outlook is the beef market. A confluence of demand and supply factors in both the domestic and international markets exerts upward pressure on beef prices over the next three years, prompting them to rise 3.27 percent annually. The U.S. price for fed steers peaks at $76.64 per cwt in 2003. On the domestic side, the U.S. cattle inventories build during the first five years of the baseline. Moreover, beef exports from the EU dropped by 30 percent in 2000 and drop another 15 percent in 2001, resulting in a decrease in the excess supply of beef on world markets. The expansionary phase of the cattle cycle in the U.S. begins in 2002, and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of beef in 2006. U.S. beef net exports are only 22 tmt in 2006, but they grow rapidly to 259 tmt by 2008. Income and population growth, on the one hand, and various production constraints, on the other, enable consumption to rise faster than production in many countries, causing these countries to satisfy their excess demand with low-cost imports. For example, with an aging farm population and high production costs, production of all meats in Japan has been declining. In particular, beef production has been declining since 1995 and continues to decline in the projection period at a rate of 0.80 percent annually. In contrast, consumption of beef continues to grow 0.58 percent annually. The growing supply deficit is met by beef imports, which grow 1.03 percent annually to reach 1.11 mmt in 2010. By the end of the baseline, beef imports account for 69 percent of Japanese beef consumption. A similar pattern is exhibited in South Korea, especially following the liberalization of Korea’s beef import market in 2001. Although Korea’s quota has not been binding in recent years because of the financial crisis in 1997-1998, large impacts on beef imports are expected in the short-run as a result of the recent ruling by the WTO that South Korea’s discriminatory beef retail distribution system is inconsistent with WTO rules. In the projection period, beef production in South Korea declines 2.95 percent annually, while consumption rises 1.38 percent each year, causing beef imports to balloon to 436 tmt (69 percent of consumption) in 2010. Taiwan’s beef consumption has always been supplied primarily by imports, accounting for 96 percent of consumption. With growing beef consumption, Taiwan’s imports increase 3.47 percent annually over the baseline. Plagued by low profitability and credit problems, Mexico’s cattle inventory has been shrinking at an annual rate of 4.2 percent since its most recent peak at 30.7 million head in 1994. Whereas income and population growth drives an expansion of beef demand in the near term, it takes four years for the cattle sector to recover, causing beef net imports to increase 40 percent between 2000 and 2004. As the cattle sector recovers, net imports at the end of the decade are only 11.89 percent above the level in 2000. Strong demand for feeder cattle in the U.S. prompts an expansion in Mexico’s live cattle exports, although not at the high rates observed in the late 1990s. In 2010, Mexico’s live cattle exports reach 1.33 million head. At the height of the macroeconomic crisis in 1998, Russia’s beef imports dropped 22 percent. Food aid from the EU and the U.S. allowed Russia to increase its beef imports by 45 percent the following year. However, absent the food aid, imports declined again by 36 percent in 2000. In the next decade, Russia’s beef imports increase 55 percent, from 445 tmt in 2000 to 688 tmt in 2007. In the first half of the baseline, cattle stock and production in Russia continue to decline 1.39 percent annually, while consumption recovers and grows an average of 0.63 percent each year. Slight

12 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

recovery in production at the end of the decade dampens imports to 669 tmt in 2010. A similar pattern occurs in the CEECs, namely, an increasing beef deficit in the region as a result of a faster and earlier recovery in beef consumption at an annual rate of 1.37 percent during the first half of the decade with production not turning around until 2007. Canada is shifting its export mix from live cattle to beef products. With its additional slaughter capacity, Canada is retaining more cattle for domestic slaughter, cutting the average level of its live cattle exports to the United States in half compared to the peak level of 1.15 million head in 1996. At the same time, Canada’s beef exports jumped by 15 percent between 1999 and 2000, penetrating the Mexican beef import market as a substitute for certain types of beef exported from the United States that are currently subject to anti-dumping duties levied by the Mexican government. Between 2000 and 2007, Canada’s beef exports grow another 15 percent, as it establishes an increasing presence in some Asian beef import markets. Canada’s share of world beef trade doubles from 4 to 8 percent over the next decade. Australia exploits the opportunity created by the rising world price of beef to increase its exports of both live cattle and beef in the first half of next decade. Beef exports increase 2.17 percent annually, peaking at 1.38 mmt in 2006. Australian beef exports decline after 2006, but live cattle exports continue to grow 4.42 percent annually, reaching 1.34 million head in 2010. The Philippines and Indonesia are the primary destinations for Australian live cattle exports. With rising incomes and population, demand for both beef and live cattle have increased in Indonesia and the Philippines. Both countries have encouraged growth in their feedlot-fattening sectors, despite the absence of a viable cow-calf industry to support feeding operations. In the Philippines, for example, live feeder cattle imports are only charged a 3 percent duty, while a 30 percent levy is applied to beef imports within the quota limits and a 40 to 45 percent levy is charged for over-quota imports. Moreover, live cattle imports are not counted against the TRQ. Australia’s beef export market share increases from 37 to 38 percent before declining to 34 percent at the end of the baseline. Similarly, the recovery of New Zealand’s cattle sector is timely, allowing producers to benefit from rising demand and prices on international markets. A succession of severe droughts reduced beef production by 16 percent between 1997 and 1999. New Zealand ranchers retain more dairy calves to rebuild beef herds early in the baseline, allowing production to grow 2.74 percent, which exceeds the 2.07 percent increase in consumption. New Zealand is able to increase its beef exports by 30 percent over the next decade, keeping its share of the export market at around 15 to 16 percent. After suffering a setback in early 2000 due to some cases of FMD, primarily in illegally imported cattle, South American beef producers rebounded quickly. Argentina’s rapid response to the incidences of FMD enabled it to retain its FMD-free status from the OIE. FMD-free status removes restrictions against Argentine exports of both fresh-chilled and processed beef to Europe, North America, and Asia. Argentina’s beef sector benefits from the macroeconomic policy, which has stabilized the Argentine currency and lowered inflation. Moreover, beef producers receive support in the form of an interest cost subsidy of 2 percent, and exporters receive a tax rebate of 2.7 to 12 percent. Consequently, Argentina’s beef exports increase 61 percent over the baseline, reaching 566 tmt in 2010. Argentina’s share of beef trade returns to its peak level of 13 percent reached in the 1990s. Brazil, on the other hand, has made some progress in improving its production technology, infrastructure, and marketing. Brazil’s beef exports increase 14 percent in the next decade, doubling its share of beef trade from 10 to 20 percent. However, sanitary issues and domestic consumption growth of 1.89 percent annually limit Brazil’s export potential. The combination of Agenda 2000 reforms and the termination of all support schemes associated with the 1996 BSE crisis were expected to bring the EU beef sector into balance in the next decade. The beef intervention price is reduced by 20 percent under Agenda 2000, and public intervention purchases are replaced with private storage aid at the end of 2002. The calf-processing scheme was terminated in 1999, and the Over Thirty Month Scheme (OTMS) in the United Kingdom was scheduled for termination in 2001. However, the more widespread nature of recent BSE cases reported in the EU has disrupted the beef market, repeating the public concern witnessed in 1995-1996. Per capita beef consumption in the EU declines by 15 percent between 1999 and 2002, recovers from 2003 to 2005, and then resumes the gradual decline it exhibited in the early 1990s. Similarly, beef production drops 13 percent between 1999 and 2002 as a consequence of the indefinite extension of the OTMS in the United Kingdom and the introduction of the “Purchase

Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 13

for Destruction Scheme” in the rest of the EU. There is a slight recovery in EU beef production from 2003 to 2005, after which production gradually declines as dairy cattle numbers are diminished by long-run productivity growth. Flexible public intervention and continued export restitution support the EU beef market throughout the baseline. In 2000, EU beef exports dropped 30 percent. In the last quarter of 2000, major beef importers—such as Egypt, Japan, and Russia— imposed restrictions or a complete ban on beef imports from BSE-infected countries in the EU. Exports decline an additional 15 percent in 2001 before recovering slightly beginning in 2003. Pork The transformation of the pork sector in many countries has expanded productive capacity and improved productivity. However, rising incomes in countries that are not major pork-producing regions increases the demand for pork imports and boosts world trade by 39 percent, an increase of 872 tmt by 2010. World pork prices cycle slightly upward over the baseline, reaching a maximum of $45.88 per cwt in 2008. Prices at the bottom of the cycle also increase over the baseline. In the next decade, pork prices do not fall below $36 per cwt, the break-even price reported by USDA, except in 2002. Japan remains the largest pork importer in the world, with net imports reaching 1 mmt in 2010. However, the 1.36 percent annual growth in imports in the next decade is much weaker than the 6.58 percent growth achieved in the 1990s. The primary reason for the slowdown in Japanese pork imports is that Japan has introduced a form of deficiency payments program that insulates Japanese pork producers from unfavorable price movements in the wholesale carcass market. As a result, production declines a scant 0.28 percent annually compared to the 2.17 percent decline in the 1990s. Despite the policy change, Japan’s pork imports increase 14 percent over the baseline. With production 29 percent lower than its pre-FMD level, Taiwan imports non-muscle and variety meats to satisfy its domestic requirements. Domestic pork consumption increases 1.29 percent annually compared to the 0.84 percent increase in production, raising Taiwan’s imports of cheap muscle meats. Taiwan’s total pork imports increase 7.48 percent annually. South Korea gained significant share of the Japanese pork import market after the ban on imports from Taiwan was implemented in 1997. However, FMD cases in pork-producing regions have restricted South Korea’s exports to Japan. With more pork remaining on domestic markets, South Korea’s pork imports decline 11 percent between 2000 and 2010. Hong Kong gradually replaces imports of live, slaughter-ready swine with pork imports. Swine imports decline 15 percent compared to the 1997 level, while pork imports expand by 25 percent in the next decade. Mexico shows strong growth in pork demand, increasing 4.06 percent annually in response to improved consumer purchasing ability and growing population. Domestic pork production is constrained by poor infrastructure and distribution to 2.97 percent annual growth. Mexican pork imports expand from 95 tmt in 2000 to 285 tmt in 2010. The shift toward smaller production units and the limited availability of feed grains have slowed recovery in the Russian pork sector in the short run. Infrastructure and institutional constraints darken the long-term prospects for recovery. Production increases only 1 percent annually during the baseline. However, modest economic growth boosts consumption by 1.73 percent annually, causing net imports to increase from 299 tmt in 2000 to 477 tmt in 2010. Low-cost producers in North America are in the best position to capture the growth in the international pork market. In particular, the U.S. continues to build up its hog inventory, approaching the 1998 level of 55.3 million head in 2001 and pushing prices to their lowest level for the next decade in 2002. By keeping a tight reign on production costs and improving productivity, efficient producers are able to weather the downturn in prices, and at the end of the decade, hog inventories are 3.58 percent larger. With production annual growth of 1.51 percent exceeding consumption growth of 1.17 percent, net exports from the U.S. increase 6.10 percent annually, allowing the U.S. to double its market share from 7.7 percent to 14.4 percent. Canada has complemented its abundant feed resources and improved production technology with additional investments in hog production facilities and meat processing plants and aggressive export marketing in the Asian market. Canadian pork production grows 2.80 percent annually, exceeding the more modest annual increase in consumption of 1.75 percent. Canada’s net exports of pork increase from 680 tmt in 2000 to 1,019 tmt in 2010, making

14 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Canada the largest single-country pork exporter and affording it 38 percent of the international market. Expansion of the processing sector is one of the engines propelling this growth. Canada has expanded its meatpacking capacity, reducing live swine exports to the U.S. by 20 percent compared to the peak level of 4.14 million head in 1999. Moreover, Canadian processors seek to differentiate their products by using better coordination mechanisms that ensure quality. They also have shown flexibility in segregating U.S. and Canadian pigs for processing in response to Australia’s sanitary concerns over pork originating from U.S. swine. The EU has been the largest pork exporter in the world, with a market share of 46.5 percent. The EU pork market is mature and balanced, with consumption and production evolving at almost the same annual rate of 0.68 percent. However, the disruption of the beef market due to the BSE scare is spilling over into the pork sector. As consumers shift away from beef to other meats, per capita pork consumption increases by 1.31 percent in 2001, reducing the EU’s exportable surplus by 11 percent. With strengthened prices, production increases and allows the EU to export more in the next two years. In the medium term, beef consumption adjusts toward normal levels at a time when swine production is high, prompting a decline in pork prices and a reduction in production and net exports. However, the low feed prices that result from the Agenda 2000 reforms allow the EU to increase exports in the outer period, reaching 1.27 mmt in 2010. Also, the EU signed a zero-for-zero agreement with Central and Eastern European Countries. Recovery in the pork sector of the CEECs toward the end of the projection period enables the region to maintain its net export position. Driven by rising demand in both the domestic and export markets, pork production in Brazil grows an average of 2.28 percent annually. Brazil has encouraged increased investment in swine production in the Central-West region through fiscal incentives. This area is close to feed grain sources. Brazil is aggressively marketing its agricultural exports through market promotions and is penetrating new markets such as Russia. With domestic consumption growing 2.02 percent annually, Brazil is able to increase its exports from 84 tmt in 2000 to 163 tmt in 2010, representing a doubling of its market share from 3 to 6 percent. Poultry In most countries, poultry consumption grows faster than consumption of other meats over the next decade. In a number of countries, chicken consumption approaches or sometimes exceeds consumption of traditional leading meat products, such as beef in the Americas or pork in Europe. Half of the growth in per capita meat consumption in the next decade is accounted for by the increase in poultry consumption. This growth is driven by the fact that poultry prices are often lower than other meat prices and by the perception that poultry meat is healthier than other meats. Made possible by ready availability of advanced production technology, world poultry production responds to the growing demand by increasing 27 percent, and world poultry trade grows 20 percent. The rapid growth in world poultry production alleviates pressure on world poultry prices, which show a sustained annual increase of only 0.36 percent throughout the next decade. China and Russia account for 37 percent of world broiler imports. Whereas U.S. consumers prefer chicken parts with white meat (for example, chicken breast), Chinese consumers prefer the lower-cost cuts with dark meat, such as the back, neck, and feet. Driven by the complementary nature of demand for chicken parts in China and the United States, China’s chicken imports grow 1.10 percent annually, from 770 tmt in 2000 to 859 tmt in 2010. Russia’s poultry imports increase 3.36 percent in 2001. But net imports decline in the medium term, as improvements in production infrastructure boost domestic production, especially in larger broiler operations. Russia’s net imports of broiler meat total 901 tmt in 2010. Japan and Hong Kong account for an additional 37 percent of world broiler imports. Production of broilers in Japan continues to decline while consumption expands, causing net imports to rise 18 percent in the next decade. Hong Kong’s demand for chicken meat is largely met by imports. Also, imports into Hong Kong are often reexported to the Mainland. Total broiler imports into Hong Kong increase 17 percent over the baseline. With similar patterns of macroeconomic and population growth driving consumption, the combined net imports of Indonesia, Philippines, and South Korea increase from 81 tmt in 2000 to 173 tmt in 2010. On the other hand, Mexico’s broiler imports are stable to slightly declining, with the average level of imports 4 percent lower than that

Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 15

in 1999. Broiler imports in 2000 were higher than normal, as additional supplies were needed after the Newcastle disease outbreak. The U.S. continues to show growth in broiler production, consumption, and trade over the next decade. With abundant feed grains, efficient production, and adequate transport and storage infrastructure, the United States increases its exports 1.14 percent annually. However, strong competition from Brazil reduces the U.S. share of broiler trade slightly in the second half of the decade, from 59 to 58 percent. Driven by strong domestic and export demand, Brazil’s poultry sector makes significant gains in the next decade. Fiscal incentives and subsidies from local governments attract new investments in broiler production near the grain surplus Central-West regions. Brazilian net exports of broiler meat grow 3.68 percent annually, as production growth of 2.52 percent outpaces consumption growth of 2.33 percent. Although Argentina imposed a minimum import price on poultry imports from Brazil, the steady devaluation of the Brazilian currency and renewed access to the Chinese market following the Newcastle outbreak raise its share of the export market from 18 to 26 percent. The EU share of the international poultry market declines from 15 to 9 percent. During the first three years of the baseline, a greater proportion of poultry production is retained for the domestic market, as consumers substitute for beef in response to the BSE scare. Broiler exports grow 1.09 percent annually after 2003 as beef consumption recovers and as feed prices remain low following implementation of Agenda 2000 reforms in the grain sector. Thailand’s broiler exports are hurt by the appreciation of its currency in the first half of the decade. Growth over the remainder of the baseline gives Thailand an 18 percent overall increase in broiler exports between 2000 and 2010, enabling Thailand to maintain a stable 6 percent share of the international market. Dairy After stagnating in the 1990s, milk production in modeled countries began increasing in 1998. Over the next decade, milk production increases 9.69 percent despite a 0.68 percent reduction in total dairy cattle inventories. Just over 57 percent of the 38.2 mmt increase in milk production occurs in North and South American countries. U.S. milk production rises 12.2 mmt over the baseline, while cow numbers fall 0.8 percent annually, implying a 1.8 percent annual increase in output per cow. Productivity in Brazil’s dairy sector rises 2.5 percent annually, which is coupled with a 3.7 percent increase in cow numbers over the next decade to produce a 7.4 mmt increase in milk output. Milk production in Mexico and Argentina increases 3.1 mmt and 2.2 mmt, respectively, through combined growth in cow inventories and productivity per cow. With the exception of Argentina, which exports roughly 32 percent of its increase in milk production in the form of dairy products, the vast majority of the growth in milk production in the Americas over the next decade remains in domestic markets to satisfy demands for fresh milk and dairy products. In contrast, the bulk of the combined 3.4 mmt increase in milk production in New Zealand and Australia is destined for export markets. New Zealand milk production increases 1.5 percent annually over the baseline, and 94 percent of the increase is exported as cheese and WMP. Australian milk production grows less than 1 percent annually from 2001 onward, as the industry rationalizes current capacity in response to recent deregulation. More than 70 percent of the growth in Australian milk production is used to satisfy increases in domestic consumption of fluid milk, cheese, and fresh dairy products. Substantial growth in milk production also occurs in Poland, India, China, and the European Union. International prices for NFD and WMP increased 44.5 and 22.4 percent respectively in 2000. Powder prices decline 4 to 5 percent in 2001, as powder supplies increase in response to higher prices. From 2003 onward, powder prices rise an average of 1.7 percent annually. The strength in powder markets is driven by a recovery in Asian demand for milk proteins coupled with a strong demand for cheese in several countries, which keeps additional milk from flowing to powder plants. In addition, WTO commitments to reduce export subsidies limit the ability of the EU and U.S. to increase milk powder exports. A strong increase in cheese exports from Australia and the EU contributed to the 2.9 percent decline in international cheese prices in 2000. Likewise, a 21 percent increase in New Zealand butter exports played a role in the 7.7 percent decline in butter prices. Butter and cheese prices rise steadily after 2002, increasing, respectively, 2.2 and 3.1 percent annually.

16 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Russian butter imports remain below 50 tmt until economic recovery begins to have a significant impact on consumption in 2006. Russian butter imports rise to 79 tmt by the end of the baseline. Mexican butter imports decline 20 tmt as greater domestic production reduces excess demand. Increased butter demand in developing Asia and other countries in the rest of the world increases butter imports 34 tmt over the baseline. European countries supply the bulk of the growth in butter trade, with the EU and Poland showing the largest increases in exports. However, butter exports from the EU remain well below their quantity limit for subsidized exports. EU butter stocks rise gradually until the implementation of the Berlin Accord reforms in the EU dairy sector in 2005. With substantial stocks and weak international demand, the EU domestic butter price declines 1.5 percent annually from 2000 to 2005. As the intervention price for butter is lowered, prices decline more than 3 percent annually, stabilizing at 3.04 euro per kg in 2007. Per capita cheese demand in modeled countries grows an average of 1.6 percent annually over the next decade, for a total increase in cheese consumption of 2.18 kg per person. The United States and the European Union account for 68 percent of the total increase in cheese consumption. Argentina, Brazil, and Russia account for an additional 16.4 percent of cheese consumption growth. Excluding Russia, domestic producers supply virtually all of the additional cheese consumed in these countries. Growing cheese demand in Russia is met by imports, largely from the EU and Eastern European countries. Cheese exports from Australia and New Zealand grow roughly 35 percent over the baseline. Exports from Oceania satisfy the 21 tmt increase in Japanese cheese imports and the 84 tmt growth in cheese imports by other countries in Asia and the rest of the world. International cheese prices rise steadily over the baseline, reaching $2,253 per metric ton in 2010. Supplies in international NFD markets remain tight in the coming decade, keeping prices above $1,700 per metric ton for the entire projection period. Dairy processors in New Zealand shift milk toward WMP and cheese early in the baseline, which reduces NFD exports; however, persistent growth in NFD prices brings New Zealand exports back to 2000 levels by the end of the baseline. Australian NFD exports decline 44 tmt from 2000 to 2010, as more milk is shifted into cheese production. Strong feed demand and exports reduced NFD stocks in the EU by more than 40 percent in 2000. With short supplies, EU NFD prices remain well above intervention levels. Likewise, despite elimination of the dairy support program in 2002, U.S. NFD prices remain above world prices. Exports from both the EU and the U.S. are limited by WTO export subsidy commitments. Poland seizes the opportunity to recover some of its NFD exports lost following the Russian economic crisis and increases its exports by 43 tmt over the baseline. Argentina and India also increase NFD shipments modestly. Mexican NFD imports decline slightly as a result of substantial growth in milk production, a significant portion of which is enticed into milk powder production by the favorable prices. Total NFD trade remains stable over the baseline at roughly 900 tmt. WMP trade grows a modest 17 percent over the next decade. Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand are able to supply the increased demand in WMP imports. New Zealand’s exports of WMP increase 144 tmt by 2010, accounting for two-thirds of the total growth in trade. More than half of the increase in New Zealand’s WMP exports occurs in 2001. Argentine WMP exports grow 1.8 percent annually to reach 174 tmt by 2010. Some of Argentina’s exports are shipped to Brazil, where WMP imports rise 2.2 percent annually. Australian WMP exports rise 10 percent over the baseline, and competition of milk supplies and subsidy allocations keep EU WMP exports stagnant at 525 tmt. Developing countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa represented by the “rest of world” aggregate increase WMP imports by 17 percent over the baseline, reaching 1.28 mmt in 2010.

BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS AND PRICE PROJECTIONS

18 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Macroeconomic and Policy Assumptions The U.S. economy grows 2.7 percent in 2001 and then resumes stronger growth in subsequent years, averaging 3.71 percent annually. All NAFTA member countries exhibit solid economic growth, and their agricultural trade deepens. FAPRI projections incorporate provisions of the 1996 U.S. Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act, which are assumed to be extended indefinitely. Marketing loan rates for food grains, feed grains, oilseeds, and cotton are held at their maximum levels as set forth in the FAIR Act. The loan rate for sugarcane is set at $0.18 per pound of raw sugar, and the rate for sugar beets is set at $0.23 per pound on a refined sugar basis. As mandated by the FAIR Act, the loan rate for peanuts is fixed at $0.305 per pound. CRP is continued in the current FAPRI projections, with some contracts allowed to expire, other contracts reenrolled, and new contracts allowed by the secretary of agriculture. After a decline in 1999, the ability to write new contracts pushes the total number of acres upward, reaching 36.2 million acres by 2005. The dairy support program is extended per current legislation through 2001, but the program is eliminated in 2002. The FAIR Act legislates maximum spending under the Export Enhancement Program (EEP). The baseline does not assume EEP is used during the projection period. The baseline incorporates the provisions of the emergency spending packages passed by Congress in 1998, 1999, and 2000, because direct payments and disaster assistance affect farm income in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001.

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 19

Measures of U.S. Inflation Percent 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Consumer Price Index

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Producer Price Index

U.S. Prime Interest Rate Percent 11

10

9

8

7

6

5 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

20 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Crude Oil, Average Refiner's Acquisition Costs Percent 80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Conservation Reserve Program Million Acres 40

30

20

10

0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 21

AMTA and Market Loss Assistance Payments Includes 1998 and 1999 Spending Package Dollars per Bushel 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Wheat

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Corn

U.S. Crop Loan Rates Dollars per Bushel 6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99 Wheat

2000/01 Corn

2002/03

2004/05

Soybeans

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

22 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Economic Pro ojections and Program Provisions 2000

2001

2002

5.1

2.7

4.4

Real Cons. Expenditure *

3.8

2.2

CPI, All Urban Consumers *

3.4

2.6

PPI, All Commodities *

5.5

0.8

United States Real GDP *

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

(Percentage Change From Previous Year) 4.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.6

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.2

-0.1

1.1

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.4

Unemployment Rate

-4.7

9.1

4.3

-8.6

-4.1

-0.8

2.6

4.4

1.8

0.1

-3.2

-3.2

3-Month Treasury Bill Rate

25.5

-6.3

-10.3

1.5

9.3

2.2

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.4

Moody's AAA Corp. Rate

11.1

-16.5

-5.0

5.1

8.6

3.0

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.5

1.4

1.4

Unit Non-Farm Labor Costs

0.7

2.2

0.3

1.4

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.2

77.8

78.8

82.2

92.5

92.5

1.7

2.9

4.1

4.3

4.3

(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) NA NA NA NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46

0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46

0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46

0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46

0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46

Federal Budget Surplus Unified Budget Basis Refiners Cost of Oil Milk Support Price

PFC/MLA Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Wheat Rice Cotton Loan Rates Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Soybeans Wheat Rice

69.8

67.8

56.4

58.2

(Billion U.S. Dollars) 65.4 74.3 76.8

64.7

-5.6

-8.7

-4.9

-4.7

(Percent) -2.3 1.5

9.90

9.90

NA

NA

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0.70 0.83 0.52 0.06 1.22

0.27 0.32 0.20 0.02 0.47

0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46

0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46

5.44

2.10

2.04

2.04

(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 2.04 2.04 2.04 2.04

2.04

2.04

2.04

2.04

(U.S. Dollars per Pound) 0.056 0.056 0.056 0.056

0.056

0.056

0.056

0.056

1.89 1.70 1.69 1.12 5.26 2.58

1.89 1.70 1.68 1.12 5.26 2.58

1.89 1.71 1.66 1.12 5.26 2.58

1.89 1.71 1.65 1.12 5.26 2.58

1.89 1.71 1.65 1.12 5.26 2.58

04/05

05/06

06/07

(U.S. Dollars per Bushel) 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.46 0.46 0.46

0.150

0.057

0.056

0.056

1.89 1.71 1.62 1.16 5.26 2.58

1.89 1.71 1.65 1.21 5.26 2.58

1.89 1.69 1.71 1.14 5.26 2.58

1.89 1.69 1.74 1.10 5.26 2.58

6.50

6.50

6.50

6.50

(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

6.50

6.50

6.50

6.50

0.519 0.305

0.519 0.305

0.519 0.305

0.519 0.305

(U.S. Dollars per Bushel) 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.70 1.71 1.70 1.76 1.73 1.70 1.11 1.10 1.10 5.26 5.26 5.26 2.58 2.58 2.58

Cotton Peanuts

0.519 0.305

0.519 0.305

0.519 0.305

0.519 0.305

(U.S. Dollars per Pound) 0.519 0.519 0.519 0.519 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.305

Sugarcane

18.00

18.00

18.00

18.00

(U.S. Cents per Pound) 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00

18.00

18.00

18.00

18.00

31.4

33.5

34.5

35.5

(Million Acres) 36.2 36.2

36.2

36.2

36.2

36.2

Conservation Reserve

36.0

g year. * Percentage change from preceding Source: International Financial Statitistics March 2000 and Projections after 1999 are from DRI.

36.2

24 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Macroeconomic Assumptions World economic activity grows an average of 3.43 percent annually over the next decade, with continued economic recovery occurring in most countries in Asia and Latin America as well as in Russia. Japanese real GDP grows an average of 1.43 percent annually during the coming decade. This is the lowest projected growth path among industrialized nations. World population grows an average of 1.2 percent annually over the next decade, stimulating demand for agricultural products. The population growth rate is steadily falling; therefore, its positive impact on demand diminishes over time. Africa remains the continent with the highest population growth rate, above 2 percent annually, but lack of purchasing power prevents that population growth from translating into large increases in demand for food. The euro appreciates slowly but steadily in the coming decade, eventually reaching a value of U.S.$1.137 per euro in 2010. The yen depreciates in 2001/02 and then moderately appreciates for the remainder of the projection period, reaching 110 yen per U.S. dollar in 2010/11. Currencies of all major exporting countries appreciate relative to the U.S. dollar, except the Brazilian real, which depreciates more than 4 percent annually. Countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) are consolidating their growth and are expected to achieve an average rate of growth of 4.3 percent in the coming decade. Russia and the Ukraine experience strong price inflation, averaging 15 percent annually over the baseline Virtually all Asian countries experienced strong economic growth in 2000, and this strong growth continues in the coming decade, with annual rates of increase between 4 and 6 percent. Economic growth in China averages more than 7 percent annually during the baseline. The economic outlook for Latin America is bullish. The Brazilian economy grows 4.3 percent in 2001 with a modest 5 percent devaluation of its currency. The outlook for most major countries in the region is similar, except for significant price inflation and currency devaluations in Paraguay and Venezuela. As a region, Latin American real GDP grows 4.6 percent annually in the next decade. During the projection period, African and Middle Eastern countries included in the FAPRI baseline grow at healthy rates, avoiding price inflation and currency devaluation. Exceptions to this rule are Egypt and Nigeria, which experience both significant price inflation and currency devaluation. Price levels in Iran also soar in the coming decade.

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 25

Developing Real GDP Growth Rates Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998 World

2000

2002

Developed

2004

2006

2008

2010

2006

2008

2010

Developing

Recovery of Real GDP Growth In Crisis Countries Percent 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 1990

1992

1994 Russia

1996

1998 Thailand

2000 Korea

2002

2004 Brazil

Indonesia

26 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Exchange Rate Projections U.S. Dollar per Euro

U.S. Dollar per Real

1.60

1.8

1.40

1.6 1.4

1.20

1.2 1.00 1.0 0.80 0.8 0.60 0.6 0.40

0.4

0.20

0.2

0.00

0.0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000 EU

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Brazil

Population Growth Rates Percent 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 1990

1992

1994

1996 Asia

1998

2000

Latin America

2002 Africa

2004

2006 Developed

2008

2010

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 27

Real GDP Projections s 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

World

4.3

3.5

3.7

(Percentage Change from Previous Year) 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

Developed Market Economies Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand United States

4.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 3.9 5.1

3.7 3.2 3.1 1.3 3.5 2.7

3.3 3.0 2.9 1.6 3.1 4.4

3.1 3.7 2.7 1.6 2.9 4.6

2.9 3.6 2.4 1.5 2.6 3.6

2.8 3.1 2.5 1.4 2.6 3.5

2.9 3.1 2.5 1.3 2.6 3.4

2.9 3.1 2.4 1.4 2.5 3.3

2.9 3.1 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.5

2.9 3.0 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.4

2.8 2.9 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.6

2.8 2.9 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.6

Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia

4.5 4.1 2.8 5.7 5.2 2.2 3.0 4.6

5.0 5.0 4.3 4.8 5.5 5.3 4.5 4.5

5.4 5.3 5.9 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.0 4.6

5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.9 5.5 5.0

5.0 4.5 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.1 5.4

4.8 4.8 4.9 5.6 4.2 5.8 6.0 5.2

4.5 4.1 4.9 4.6 4.3 5.4 4.3 4.9

4.6 4.0 4.9 4.5 4.6 5.5 4.1 5.0

4.5 4.1 4.8 4.4 4.4 5.7 3.7 5.4

4.6 3.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 5.8 4.7 5.3

4.8 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.6 4.8 4.4

4.8 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.6 4.8 4.4

Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine

5.5 5.9 4.2

4.4 4.5 3.9

4.3 4.1 4.4

4.4 4.0 4.7

4.2 3.9 4.1

4.0 3.5 3.7

4.0 3.6 3.9

3.6 3.1 4.0

3.8 3.4 4.1

4.8 4.8 4.3

5.8 6.1 4.4

5.8 6.1 4.4

Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania

6.1 4.7 4.8

6.0 5.5 5.2

5.8 4.8 5.5

5.9 4.5 5.3

5.8 4.3 5.0

5.5 4.3 4.7

5.2 4.2 4.5

5.1 4.1 4.3

5.1 4.1 4.1

5.1 4.1 3.9

5.0 3.9 4.0

5.0 3.9 4.0

Other Economies Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam

8.1 5.8 5.8 4.5 6.8 4.8 4.1 8.9 6.5 5.8 5.0

7.7 4.2 5.6 5.1 6.2 4.0 4.7 5.4 5.0 6.2 5.4

7.0 6.1 5.6 6.0 5.5 3.6 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.2 6.2

6.7 5.3 5.8 6.2 5.3 3.9 5.4 5.7 4.3 5.4 6.1

6.6 5.0 5.6 5.9 5.5 3.9 5.6 5.5 4.1 5.4 6.1

6.9 5.0 5.6 6.0 5.5 4.0 5.7 5.4 4.3 5.6 6.0

7.8 4.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 4.4 5.5 5.4 4.7 5.9 6.0

8.1 4.6 5.7 5.3 5.4 4.5 5.4 5.3 4.8 6.2 5.9

7.2 4.4 5.7 5.1 5.4 4.5 5.3 5.3 4.9 6.3 5.9

7.1 4.3 5.7 4.9 5.3 4.5 5.3 5.2 4.9 6.3 5.8

7.0 4.1 5.7 5.0 5.3 4.5 5.2 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.7

7.0 4.1 5.7 5.0 5.3 4.5 5.2 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.7

Latin America Argentina Brazil Columbia Mexico Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela

2.0 3.2 4.1 5.8 3.1 2.0 3.5

4.3 4.2 4.5 3.6 4.2 3.7 5.5

5.0 5.0 4.8 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.7

4.8 5.4 6.1 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.5

4.6 5.1 5.9 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.2

4.6 4.9 5.6 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.2

4.6 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.1 2.8

4.6 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.2 4.1 2.9

4.5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.1 4.1 2.9

4.5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.0 4.1 2.9

4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.0 4.0 2.9

4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.0 4.0 2.9

Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco South Africa Tunisia

3.9 4.4 0.9 3.9 5.5

6.3 5.5 7.0 4.4 5.7

3.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.5

3.2 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.4

3.0 5.3 4.2 4.3 5.3

3.1 4.8 4.5 4.3 5.2

3.8 4.5 4.6 4.0 5.1

4.2 4.5 4.6 4.0 5.0

4.2 4.5 4.6 4.0 4.9

4.2 4.4 4.6 3.9 4.8

4.2 4.4 4.6 3.6 4.7

4.2 4.4 4.6 3.6 4.7

Middle East Iran Israel Saudi Arabia

4.1 3.7 7.5

0.8 4.0 3.4

4.0 4.3 3.2

7.9 4.2 3.5

5.8 4.2 3.7

5.4 4.1 4.1

5.1 4.0 4.3

5.0 3.9 4.7

5.1 3.9 5.3

5.0 3.8 5.7

4.9 3.7 6.0

4.9 3.7 6.0

Source: International Financial Statistics March 2000 and Projections after 2000 are from DRI.

28 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

GDP Deflator Projections (Expressed in Local Currency) 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

(Percentage Change from Previous Year) Developed Market Economies Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand United States

5.4 3.3 1.1 -1.7 3.6 2.1

5.4 2.5 2.1 1.0 4.9 2.2

4.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.7

3.5 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0

1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.3

1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.4

2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 2.5

2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.6

2.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.7

2.7 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.3 2.8

2.8 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.3 3.0

2.8 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.3 3.0

Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia

15.2 11.1 3.9 9.5 9.1 38.7 10.7 7.8

11.2 6.5 4.5 5.7 6.2 23.6 6.4 5.8

9.4 6.0 5.1 4.6 5.4 20.0 5.4 5.4

7.9 5.7 4.2 4.1 4.8 17.0 5.2 4.8

6.7 5.1 3.4 3.3 4.4 14.5 4.9 4.3

5.6 4.6 2.7 3.1 3.9 12.3 4.7 3.9

5.0 4.4 2.5 2.8 3.5 11.3 3.5 3.5

4.6 4.4 2.4 2.8 3.1 10.4 3.0 3.2

4.3 4.1 1.9 2.8 3.0 9.6 2.7 2.9

4.1 3.8 1.7 2.7 3.0 8.8 2.4 2.7

4.0 3.6 1.6 2.7 3.0 8.1 2.4 2.5

4.0 3.6 1.6 2.7 3.0 8.1 2.4 2.5

Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine

9.4 29.5 28.5

17.4 15.6 24.0

12.4 11.0 18.0

11.0 10.6 15.3

10.9 11.1 13.0

10.9 11.6 9.8

11.3 12.3 9.3

11.7 12.9 8.8

11.8 13.1 8.4

12.1 13.7 7.9

12.5 14.3 7.5

12.5 14.3 7.5

4.1 2.3 1.8

3.8 2.3 2.6

3.4 3.9 2.6

3.3 5.0 2.5

3.1 4.3 2.4

2.9 3.6 2.4

2.7 3.3 2.3

2.7 2.9 2.3

2.7 2.6 2.2

2.7 3.3 2.1

2.7 4.1 2.1

2.7 4.1 2.1

Other Economies Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam

1.5 -2.1 7.2 7.2 3.1 8.2 6.6 2.1 1.7 4.9 4.5

1.9 3.4 8.4 7.3 5.3 9.2 6.5 1.2 3.0 4.3 9.0

3.0 2.4 6.3 7.3 3.9 9.9 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.3 7.9

3.4 2.6 5.8 7.8 0.6 7.7 4.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 7.8

3.5 2.1 5.6 7.3 3.9 7.5 3.7 4.2 3.0 1.7 7.5

3.3 1.8 5.4 7.3 3.9 6.3 4.4 4.6 2.1 1.9 7.3

3.2 1.9 6.0 7.6 3.8 6.3 4.7 4.3 2.2 2.3 7.1

3.2 1.8 6.3 7.9 3.5 6.4 4.8 4.2 2.3 2.2 6.9

3.1 1.7 6.3 7.9 3.2 6.5 4.9 4.1 2.3 2.3 6.8

2.8 1.6 6.3 7.9 2.8 6.6 5.0 4.1 2.3 2.4 6.6

2.7 1.6 6.3 7.5 2.7 6.6 5.1 3.8 2.4 2.5 6.5

2.7 1.6 6.3 7.5 2.7 6.6 5.1 3.8 2.4 2.5 6.5

Latin America Argentina Brazil Columbia Mexico Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela

0.2 8.1 8.5 10.4 12.0 5.1 16.5

3.1 8.9 5.8 8.6 11.8 5.8 12.9

1.8 8.6 5.7 8.8 9.6 7.2 15.1

2.1 8.9 6.1 7.9 9.4 7.5 15.2

1.8 9.2 5.9 5.9 9.0 7.4 13.5

1.6 7.2 5.6 3.7 8.8 7.4 13.0

1.8 7.5 5.3 5.2 8.5 7.3 12.4

2.0 7.5 5.3 4.8 8.2 7.3 11.9

2.0 7.4 5.5 4.8 7.9 7.2 11.4

2.0 7.3 5.6 5.4 7.7 7.1 10.9

2.0 7.3 5.8 5.3 7.5 7.1 10.4

2.0 7.3 5.8 5.3 7.5 7.1 10.4

Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco South Africa Tunisia

19.3 2.0 4.1 7.5 4.8

2.5 6.7 4.0 6.5 6.0

2.0 10.1 3.3 6.2 5.8

1.6 8.1 2.5 5.9 3.7

1.6 6.7 0.9 5.4 3.9

1.5 5.8 2.1 4.8 4.0

2.8 5.6 2.1 4.7 3.8

3.9 5.3 2.2 4.4 3.7

4.7 5.0 2.2 4.4 3.6

5.4 4.7 2.3 4.3 3.6

6.0 4.3 2.4 4.7 3.6

6.0 4.3 2.4 4.7 3.6

Middle East Iran Israel Saudi Arabia

31.4 3.8 5.3

23.9 4.1 -1.1

15.6 3.8 1.1

11.3 3.7 1.1

7.6 3.1 1.1

5.1 2.7 1.0

3.6 2.6 1.3

3.2 2.5 2.0

3.4 2.4 2.3

3.6 2.3 2.6

3.8 2.3 2.8

3.8 2.3 2.8

Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: International Financial Statistics March 2000 and Projections after 2000 are from DRI.

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 29

Exchange Rate Projec ctions (Local Currency per U.S. Dollar) 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-1.1 -1.8 15.4 -4.7 11.9

2.4 -1.6 -1.8 7.4 -0.5

-2.3 -3.0 -7.4 0.8 -1.5

(Percentage Change from Previous Year) -3.7 -1.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 0.5 -2.5 -2.7 -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.4 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 -2.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7

-0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.5 -0.7

-0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7

-0.2 -1.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7

-0.2 -1.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7

3.4 7.9 14.7 7.9 33.7 -10.3 19.6

-8.0 -7.0 -3.5 3.1 15.0 0.6 -12.3

-5.3 -4.3 -1.1 3.7 13.7 2.5 -2.6

-1.7 -3.8 -0.2 -1.2 11.9 2.5 0.2

-1.2 -3.8 -1.6 -2.0 9.5 1.9 0.5

-0.7 -0.6 -1.1 -2.7 8.4 -0.7 1.3

-0.7 -0.5 0.2 -3.9 7.3 -0.7 1.5

-0.7 -1.0 -3.1 -2.7 6.5 -0.7 1.2

-0.7 -1.0 -1.5 -1.9 5.7 -0.7 -1.2

-0.7 -3.0 -2.5 -2.5 5.0 -0.7 -0.7

-0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 4.3 -0.7 -0.7

-0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 4.3 -0.7 -0.7

Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine

13.3 34.5

6.4 13.4

10.4 6.0

5.8 8.3

6.5 6.2

7.0 5.0

6.9 4.4

7.2 4.0

5.0 3.6

1.7 3.2

-0.3 2.8

-0.3 2.8

Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania

14.6 1.7 0.0

-16.5 -4.2 0.0

-5.3 -2.7 -5.3

-1.7 -0.8 -1.7

-1.2 -1.2 -1.2

-2.4 -0.7 -0.7

-1.0 -0.7 -0.7

-1.1 -0.7 -0.7

-1.2 -0.7 -0.7

-1.3 -0.7 -0.7

-1.2 -0.7 -0.7

-1.2 -0.7 -0.7

Other Economies Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam

0.0 0.3 4.5 -2.7 0.0 10.5 9.1 -5.7 -3.4 4.9 0.9

0.0 0.1 8.4 2.3 0.0 14.4 2.6 4.8 -1.8 2.0 6.0

5.8 0.0 6.0 -0.8 -11.7 7.9 2.4 4.6 1.2 -1.2 5.1

5.1 0.0 5.2 -2.0 0.5 7.7 1.6 3.0 2.8 -1.2 5.3

-0.3 0.0 4.4 2.4 2.3 4.0 2.9 2.0 0.3 -0.7 5.4

-0.5 0.0 4.1 3.0 1.9 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.2 -0.1 5.6

-0.3 0.0 3.9 1.4 1.6 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.1 5.3

0.4 0.0 3.8 -0.7 1.3 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.2 5.1

0.8 0.0 3.8 -0.8 1.0 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.3 5.0

0.6 0.0 3.8 -0.9 0.7 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.3 4.8

0.5 0.0 3.8 1.6 0.5 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.4 4.7

0.5 0.0 3.8 1.6 0.5 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.4 4.7

Latin America Argentina Brazil Columbia Mexico Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela

0.1 -3.3 4.6 0.2 11.0 6.3 15.0

0.0 6.2 4.6 8.6 6.1 7.7 17.3

0.0 8.2 3.9 8.5 5.8 5.0 14.9

0.0 7.4 4.2 6.3 5.4 4.8 11.7

0.0 7.4 4.6 4.7 5.1 4.8 11.5

0.0 4.4 4.2 3.0 4.8 4.6 10.8

0.0 4.8 3.9 3.5 4.5 4.5 10.2

0.0 4.7 3.6 3.1 4.2 4.4 9.7

0.0 4.3 3.5 2.9 4.0 4.3 9.2

0.0 4.3 3.6 2.8 3.8 4.3 8.8

0.0 4.2 3.6 2.8 3.5 4.2 8.2

0.0 4.2 3.6 2.8 3.5 4.2 8.2

Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco South Africa Tunisia

12.3 3.6 5.7 10.7 9.9

2.9 16.0 -0.5 8.8 -0.3

0.4 8.8 -1.4 6.0 -0.4

0.5 6.8 -3.9 4.6 0.4

0.0 5.1 -0.6 3.8 0.6

0.4 4.4 -0.8 3.4 0.1

1.2 3.7 -0.6 3.0 0.1

2.3 3.4 -0.3 3.1 0.1

3.2 3.1 -0.2 3.2 0.2

3.9 2.7 -0.1 3.3 0.3

4.5 2.4 0.0 3.3 0.2

4.5 2.4 0.0 3.3 0.2

Middle East Iran Israel Saudi Arabia

24.8 -1.4 0.0

6.0 2.9 0.0

4.1 2.8 0.0

2.8 1.9 0.0

1.8 1.1 0.0

1.1 0.6 0.0

0.7 0.2 0.0

0.6 0.2 0.0

0.5 0.2 0.0

0.5 0.2 0.0

0.6 0.1 0.0

0.6 0.1 0.0

Developed Market Economies Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia

Source: International Financial Statistics March 2000 and Projections after 2000 are from DRI.

30 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Population Projec ctions 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

(Percentage Change from Previous Year) 1.20 1.17 1.14 1.12

2008

2009

2010

2011

1.29

1.27

1.25

1.22

1.10

1.08

1.05

1.04

Market Economies Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand United States Other Developed

0.51 1.04 1.04 0.26 0.19 1.21 0.89 -0.26

0.50 1.01 1.01 0.24 0.18 1.16 0.91 -0.26

0.49 0.98 0.98 0.23 0.16 1.14 0.90 -0.26

0.48 0.95 0.96 0.22 0.14 1.11 0.89 -0.24

0.46 0.92 0.93 0.20 0.11 1.08 0.87 -0.23

0.44 0.89 0.91 0.18 0.09 1.04 0.86 -0.21

0.43 0.86 0.90 0.16 0.05 1.01 0.85 -0.20

0.41 0.84 0.88 0.14 0.02 0.97 0.84 -0.18

0.39 0.82 0.87 0.12 -0.02 0.94 0.83 -0.17

0.37 0.79 0.85 0.10 -0.06 0.90 0.82 -0.16

0.36 0.77 0.84 0.09 -0.10 0.87 0.81 -0.15

0.35 0.76 0.83 0.07 -0.14 0.84 0.81 -0.15

Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia Other Eastern Europe

0.01 -1.17 -0.09 -0.35 -0.03 -0.21 0.13 0.16 0.76

0.00 -1.14 -0.08 -0.32 -0.03 -0.21 0.13 0.13 0.69

-0.04 -1.12 -0.07 -0.31 -0.02 -0.21 0.14 0.14 0.47

-0.05 -1.09 -0.07 -0.29 -0.01 -0.21 0.14 0.14 0.39

-0.06 -1.08 -0.08 -0.29 0.01 -0.21 0.14 0.13 0.33

-0.06 -1.06 -0.10 -0.30 0.02 -0.21 0.13 0.12 0.31

-0.06 -1.05 -0.12 -0.30 0.03 -0.22 0.13 0.10 0.29

-0.06 -1.04 -0.13 -0.31 0.03 -0.22 0.12 0.08 0.27

-0.07 -1.03 -0.14 -0.31 0.03 -0.22 0.11 0.06 0.26

-0.07 -1.01 -0.16 -0.32 0.03 -0.23 0.10 0.04 0.24

-0.08 -1.00 -0.17 -0.32 0.02 -0.24 0.09 0.02 0.22

-0.09 -0.99 -0.19 -0.33 0.01 -0.25 0.08 0.00 0.21

Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine

-0.12 -0.35 -0.83

-0.10 -0.36 -0.80

-0.07 -0.34 -0.75

-0.03 -0.31 -0.70

0.00 -0.29 -0.67

0.04 -0.26 -0.64

0.08 -0.23 -0.61

0.12 -0.21 -0.56

0.16 -0.19 -0.52

0.19 -0.18 -0.48

0.21 -0.17 -0.45

0.23 -0.17 -0.43

Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania

-0.59 -0.85 -0.29

-0.57 -0.82 -0.28

-0.54 -0.78 -0.26

-0.50 -0.75 -0.24

-0.47 -0.71 -0.22

-0.43 -0.67 -0.19

-0.40 -0.63 -0.16

-0.38 -0.60 -0.13

-0.35 -0.56 -0.10

-0.32 -0.53 -0.07

-0.29 -0.49 -0.04

-0.27 -0.46 -0.01

Other Economies Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other Asia

1.54 1.32 0.91 1.77 1.61 1.66 2.05 2.21 2.11 0.95 0.82 0.95 1.51 1.21

1.51 1.29 0.89 1.33 1.58 1.63 2.00 2.16 2.07 0.91 0.81 0.93 1.48 1.18

1.48 1.27 0.88 1.29 1.54 1.59 1.95 2.11 2.03 0.88 0.79 0.90 1.45 1.17

1.45 1.24 0.85 1.24 1.50 1.56 1.90 2.05 1.99 0.84 0.78 0.87 1.43 1.16

1.41 1.20 0.80 1.20 1.47 1.52 1.86 2.00 1.95 0.80 0.77 0.85 1.41 1.15

1.38 1.16 0.76 1.16 1.43 1.48 1.83 1.94 1.91 0.76 0.75 0.82 1.39 1.14

1.35 1.12 0.72 1.12 1.40 1.44 1.81 1.89 1.87 0.72 0.73 0.79 1.36 1.12

1.32 1.10 0.69 1.09 1.37 1.40 1.79 1.85 1.83 0.68 0.71 0.76 1.32 1.11

1.30 1.07 0.66 1.06 1.35 1.36 1.77 1.81 1.79 0.64 0.69 0.72 1.29 1.09

1.27 1.04 0.62 1.04 1.32 1.32 1.75 1.77 1.76 0.61 0.66 0.69 1.26 1.07

1.24 1.01 0.59 1.01 1.30 1.27 1.73 1.72 1.72 0.57 0.64 0.66 1.23 1.05

1.22 0.98 0.57 0.99 1.27 1.24 1.71 1.68 1.69 0.52 0.60 0.62 1.22 1.03

Latin America Argentina Brazil Mexico Paraguay Other Latin America

1.39 1.18 1.00 1.56 2.69 1.64

1.34 1.16 0.93 1.52 2.66 1.60

1.31 1.14 0.89 1.49 2.62 1.57

1.28 1.13 0.86 1.46 2.59 1.54

1.25 1.11 0.82 1.42 2.56 1.50

1.21 1.07 0.78 1.38 2.53 1.47

1.18 1.05 0.75 1.35 2.50 1.44

1.16 1.03 0.73 1.32 2.47 1.42

1.13 1.01 0.70 1.29 2.44 1.39

1.11 0.99 0.68 1.26 2.42 1.36

1.08 0.96 0.65 1.22 2.39 1.34

1.06 0.92 0.63 1.19 2.36 1.31

World

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 31

Population Projec ctions (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco Nigeria South Africa Tunisia Other Africa

2.15 1.79 1.76 1.78 2.74 0.58 1.21 2.37

2.08 1.74 1.72 1.74 2.67 0.38 1.16 2.30

2.02 1.71 1.69 1.70 2.61 0.14 1.14 2.24

1.96 1.67 1.65 1.67 2.54 -0.10 1.11 2.18

Middle East Israel Saudi Arabia Other Near East

1.91 1.74 3.34 1.97

1.86 1.64 3.33 1.92

1.84 1.54 3.32 1.91

1.85 1.44 3.32 1.93

2004

2005

2006

2007

(Percentage Change from Previous Year) 1.89 1.83 1.77 1.73 1.64 1.60 1.58 1.57 1.61 1.57 1.53 1.50 1.64 1.60 1.57 1.55 2.47 2.39 2.32 2.24 -0.34 -0.58 -0.76 -0.88 1.08 1.05 1.03 1.02 2.11 2.05 1.99 1.95

ensus International Data Base, May 10, 2000. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Ce

1.91 1.35 3.32 2.04

1.96 1.26 3.32 2.15

1.96 1.20 3.33 2.15

1.96 1.17 3.33 2.15

2008

2009

2010

2011

1.69 1.54 1.48 1.53 2.17 -1.00 1.02 1.90

1.65 1.52 1.44 1.50 2.09 -1.11 1.00 1.85

1.61 1.50 1.41 1.47 2.02 -1.21 0.99 1.81

1.58 1.48 1.38 1.45 1.97 -1.25 0.97 1.78

1.95 1.15 3.33 2.15

1.94 1.12 3.33 2.14

1.93 1.09 3.33 2.12

1.91 1.07 3.31 2.10

32 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Agricultural Policy Assumptions The 1999 Berlin Accord on the Agenda 2000 reforms of the EU’s CAP brings substantial changes in grains, oilseeds, and livestock. Policy changes affecting dairy are more superficial. The EU cereal intervention price was reduced 7.5 percent in 2000/01 and will decline an additional 7.5 percent in 2001/02. Cereal producers will be partially compensated for the reduction in price support by increasing compensation payments from 54.34 to 63 euro per metric ton. The base rate for compulsory set-aside is 10 percent through the 2008/09 marketing year and is reduced to 5 percent for the remainder of the baseline. Direct payments to EU oilseed producers are progressively reduced to the level for cereals by the 2002/03 marketing year. Protein crops continue to receive a direct payment of 9.5 euro per metric ton in addition to the basic direct payment. The EU beef intervention price is reduced by 20 percent over a three-year period. In July 2002, the intervention price is replaced by a beef basic price of 2224 euro per metric ton, and a private storage aid scheme is introduced. Lower beef prices are partly offset by a phased increase in the special premium for steers, the special premium for bulls, and the suckler cow premium (300, 210, and 200 euro per head, respectively). Slaughter premiums of 80 euro per adult animal and 50 euro per calf are introduced. Producer premiums face some regional caps, which can be supplemented nationally up to a limit established for each country. The ongoing European BSE crisis has sharply decreased European beef demand and induced the continuation of the Over Thirty Month Slaughter Scheme (OTMS) in the U.K. and the introduction of animal destruction schemes in the rest of the EU. These destruction schemes moderate the short-run decline in beef prices. The current EU milk quota system is retained under Agenda 2000. In 2001, quotas for Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, and Northern Ireland are increased. Quotas for all countries are increased by 1.5 percent over the three-year period beginning in 2005. Butter and SMP intervention prices are reduced by 15 percent in three equal steps beginning in 2005. Price reductions will be offset by the introduction of a payment of 17.24 euro per metric ton of milk under quota. On July 1, 2000, the Australian Dairy Market Support scheme was dismantled, freeing farmgate prices to be determined by market forces. To assist the adjustment of dairy farmers to the new economic environment, the Australian government introduced an AU$1.78 Dairy Industry Adjustment Program (DIAP), which is funded by an 11 cent per liter levy on consumer purchases of market milk. Payments to producers under DIAP are spread out over eight years and are based on 1998/99 production levels. The current dairy support program in Canada provides market price support for butter and NFD and is assumed to remain intact for the baseline period. The two-tiered pricing system that reduced the cost of milk processed for exported products is eliminated in accordance with recent WTO rulings. The UR of the WTO continues to have a significant impact on agricultural trade, especially through disciplinary actions placed on export subsidies and market access. The greatest impacts occur in markets for wheat, coarse grains, meats, and dairy products. Industrialized members of the WTO implemented the last URAA concessions in 2000, while developing members conclude implementation in 2004. After 2004, all WTO assumptions are held constant until 2010/11, even though further policy concessions are likely to be negotiated in the new round of the WTO. FAPRI projections do not incorporate any conjecture regarding possible policy changes resulting from the ongoing round of WTO negotiations. Likewise, FAPRI projections do not assume China accedes to the WTO during the baseline, nor do they presume enlargement of the EU to include Central and Eastern European countries.

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 33

Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Crops 00/01 United States Policy Prices Corn Loan Wheat Loan Barley Loan Rice Loan Cotton Loan Soybean Loan Cane Loan Export Enhancement Program Program Expenditure Wheat Barley Conservation Reserve Program European Union Policy Prices Cereal Intervention Rice Intervention White Sugar Intervention Sugar Beet Basic Price Cereals Compensatory Payment

01/02

74 95 74 143 1,145 193 397

02/03

74 95 76 143 1,145 193 397

03/04

74 95 79 143 1,145 193 397

04/05

74 95 80 143 1,145 193 397

05/06

06/07

07/08

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 74 74 74 95 95 95 81 79 78 143 143 143 1,145 1,145 1,145 193 193 193 397 397 397

08/09

09/10

10/11

74 95 78 143 1,145 193 397

74 95 77 143 1,145 193 397

74 95 76 143 1,145 193 397

74 95 76 143 1,145 193 397

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

14.6

14.6

14.6

14.6

14.6

(Euro per Metric Ton) 101.3 101.3 101.3 315.9 315.9 315.9 631.9 631.9 631.9 47.7 47.7 47.7

101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7

101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7

101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7

101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7

(Million U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 0 0 (Million Hectares) 14.6 14.6

12.7

13.6

14.0

14.4

110.3 315.9 631.9 47.7

101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7

101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7

101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7

54.3

58.7

63.0

63.0

63.0

63.0

63.0

63.0

63.0

63.0

14.4 10.8

14.4 10.8

14.4 10.8

14.4 10.8

63.0

63.0

63.0

63.0

63.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

5.0

5.0

(Yen per Metric Ton) 292,950 291,950 290,950

289,950

289,950

289,950

289,950

63.0

Subsidized Export Limits Wheat Coarse Grains

15.6 11.4

14.4 10.8

14.4 10.8

14.4 10.8

(Million Metric Tons) 14.4 14.4 14.4 10.8 10.8 10.8

Production Aid Oilseeds

81.7

75.3

63.0

63.0

(Euro per Ton) 63.0 63.0

5,482

5,482

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

296,650

295,850

294,950

293,950

103 6,102

128 6,102

154 6,102

180 6,102

205 6,102

205 6,102

205 6,102

205 6,102

205 6,102

205 6,102

141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3

141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3

141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3

141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3

(Percent ad valorem) 141.3 141.3 141.3 141.3 141.3 141.3 163.9 163.9 163.9 141.3 141.3 141.3

141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3

141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3

141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3

141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3

(Thousand Hectares) Oilseed Max. Guaranteed Area Set-aside Rate * Crops Japan Policy Prices Rice Resale (dom. prod.) South Korea nt Minimum Import Access Commitmen Rice Corn

10.0

(Percent) 10.0

205 6,102

Import Tariffs China Wheat Corn Barley Rice

on for small producers. * Average set-aside prior to exemptio

34 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other Assumptions s for Crops 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

China Swine Backyard Feed Efficiency Improvement Production Share Compound Feed Share

-0.5 78.1 8.6

-0.5 76.5 8.7

-0.5 75.0 8.7

(Percent Change from Previous Year) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 73.5 72.0 70.6 69.2 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7

-0.5 67.8 8.7

-0.5 66.4 8.7

-0.5 65.1 8.7

-0.5 63.8 8.7

Specialized Household and Commercial Feed Efficiency Improvement Production Share Compound Feed Share

-1.0 21.9 34.8

-1.0 23.5 34.8

-1.0 25.0 34.8

-1.0 26.5 34.9

-1.0 28.0 34.9

-1.0 29.4 34.9

-1.0 30.8 35.0

-1.0 32.2 35.0

-1.0 33.6 35.1

-1.0 34.9 35.1

-1.0 36.2 35.1

Poultry Commercial Feed Efficiency Improvement Production Share Compound Feed Share

-1.5 44.9 70.0

-1.5 46.0 70.1

-1.5 47.0 70.2

-1.5 48.1 70.3

-1.5 49.1 70.3

-1.5 50.2 70.4

-1.5 51.2 70.5

-1.5 52.1 70.5

-1.5 53.1 70.6

-1.5 54.0 70.7

-1.5 54.9 70.8

Village Feed Efficiency Improvement Production Share Compound Feed Share

-0.5 55.1 30.2

-0.5 54.0 30.2

-0.5 53.0 30.2

-0.5 51.9 30.2

-0.5 50.9 30.3

-0.5 49.8 30.3

-0.5 48.8 30.3

-0.5 47.9 30.4

-0.5 46.9 30.4

-0.5 46.0 30.4

-0.5 45.1 30.5

Aquaculture Feed Efficiency Improvement Compound Feed Share

-0.5 60.3

-0.5 60.4

-0.5 60.4

-0.5 60.5

-0.5 60.5

-0.5 60.6

-0.5 60.7

-0.5 60.7

-0.5 60.8

-0.5 60.8

-0.5 60.9

Dairy Feed Efficiency Improvement Specialized Backyard

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

-2.0 -0.5

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 35

Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Livestock and Dairy Products 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

3,242 1,510

3,013 1,510

2,780 1,510

2,780 1,510

(Euro per Metric Ton) 2,780 2,780 2,780 1,510 1,510 1,510

2,780 1,510

2,780 1,510

2,780 1,510

2,780 1,510

GATT Maximum Subsidized Exports Beef Pork Poultry

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

Milk Delivery Quota: E-15

118

119

119

119

(Million Metric Tons) 119 119 120

120

120

120

120

(Euro per Metric Ton) 310 301 284 3,282 3,200 3,036 2,055 2,004 1,901

266 2,872 1,798

257 2,790 1,747

257 2,790 1,747

257 2,790 1,747

0

0

0

0

0

European Union Policy Prices Beef Intervention Pork Basic

Target Price for Milk Intervention Price for Butter Intervention Price for SMP SMP Feed Subsidy GATT Maximum Subsidized Exports Butter SMP Cheese Other Milk Products Canada Target Price for Industrial Milk Support Price, Butter Support Price, NFD

2005

822 444 286

310 3,282 2,055

310 3,282 2,055

310 3,282 2,055

310 3,282 2,055

58

0

0

0

408 279 332 981

399 273 321 958

399 273 321 958

399 273 321 958

(Thousand Metric Tons) 399 399 399 273 273 273 321 321 321 958 958 958

399 273 321 958

399 273 321 958

399 273 321 958

399 273 321 958

56

57

58

59

(Canadian Cents per Liter) 59 60 61

62

63

64

65

5.54 4.61

5.61 4.70

5.68 4.84

5.76 4.92

(Canadian Dollars per Kilogram) 5.85 5.90 5.95 4.97 5.04 5.08

6.00 5.16

6.06 5.23

6.13 5.31

6.19 5.39

0

0

36 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Agricultural Policy Assumptions A for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Argentina Beef Pork Broiler

0 11 27

0 11 27

0 11 27

0 11 27

Brazil Beef Pork Broiler

13 13 39

1 13 38

1 13 37

1 13 36

1 13 35

China VAT Beef Pork Poultry Lamb-Mutton Egg Fish

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

Czech Republic Beef Cattle Pork Swine Broiler

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

Hungary Beef Pork Poultry

25 15 39

25 15 39

Indonesia Beef Pork Broiler Lamb

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0 11 27

0 11 27

0 11 27

0 11 27

0 11 27

1 13 35

1 13 35

1 13 35

1 13 35

1 13 35

1 13 35

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

17 45 20 20 23 25 45

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

34 61 27 23 43

25 15 35

25 15 35

25 15 35

25 15 35

25 15 35

25 15 35

25 15 35

25 15 35

25 15 35

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

8 20 5 20

Import Tariffs (Percent ad valorem) 0 0 11 11 27 27

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 37

Agricultural Policy Assumptions A for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

39 4 9

39 4 9

39 4 9

39 4 9

550 505

547 521

547 540

South Korea Beef Beef: Import mark-up Pork Broiler

42 0 25 20

42 0 25 20

Latvia Beef Pork Poultry

30 45 30

Lithuania Beef Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Percent ad valorem) 39 39 4 4 9 9

39 4 9

39 4 9

39 4 9

39 4 9

39 4 9

547 547

(Yen per Kilogram) 547 547 549 555

547 559

547 565

547 570

547 576

547 583

41 0 25 20

41 0 25 20

(Percent ad valorem) 40 40 0 0 25 25 20 20

40 0 25 20

40 0 25 20

40 0 25 20

40 0 25 20

40 0 25 20

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 45 30

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

30 30 25

0 6 148

0 4 99

0 2 49

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

New Zealand Pork Poultry

9 18

9 18

9 18

9 18

9 18

9 18

9 18

9 18

9 18

9 18

9 18

Philippines Beef Pork Poultry

49 30 60

47 30 60

44 30 60

42 30 60

40 40 60

40 40 60

40 40 60

40 40 60

40 40 60

40 40 60

40 40 60

Poland Beef Pork Poultry

30 30 30

30 30 60

30 30 30

30 30 30

30 30 30

30 30 30

30 30 30

30 30 30

30 30 30

30 30 30

30 30 30

Import Tariffs Japan Beef Pork Poultry Pork Import Price Pork Ceiling Price

Mexico Beef Pork Poultry

38 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Agricultural Policy Assumptions A for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

6,424 3,994 10,367

7,312 4,559 11,203

8,239 5,358 12,428

8,787 5,307 13,149

(Ruble per Kilogram) 9,054 9,397 9,748 5,696 6,293 6,981 14,003 14,937 15,994

10,200 7,507 17,210

10,575 7,894 18,112

10,840 8,270 18,514

10,969 8,399 18,582

Slovakia Beef Pork Poultry

30 28 24

30 28 24

30 28 24

30 28 24

30 28 24

30 28 24

30 28 24

30 28 24

30 28 24

Slovenia Beef Pork Poultry

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

9 11 11

Thailand Beef Pork Poultry

54 49 49

53 47 47

52 44 44

51 42 42

50 40 40

50 40 40

50 40 40

50 40 40

50 40 40

50 40 40

50 40 40

Taiwan Beef Pork Poultry

24 20 40

24 20 40

24 20 40

24 20 40

24 20 40

24 20 40

24 20 40

24 20 40

Ukraine Beef Pork Poultry

1,706 2,565 3,590

2,068 2,962 4,146

2,237 3,389 4,745

2,442 3,650 5,110

(Hryvnias per Metric Ton) 2,510 2,555 2,587 3,976 4,290 4,587 5,566 6,006 6,422

2,624 4,855 6,797

2,683 5,084 7,118

2,790 5,283 7,396

2,912 5,461 7,646

Canada Beef Poultry NAFTA Min. Access

91 64

91 67

91 68

91 71

(Thousand Metric Ton) 91 91 91 73 74 75

91 77

91 78

91 80

91 81

Czech Republic Beef Pork Poultry

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

11 25 3

European Union Pork

76

76

76

76

76

Hungary Beef Pork Poultry

76

76

76

76

76

76

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

14 20 11

306

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Import Tariffs Russia Beef Pork Poultry

(Percent ad valorem) 30 30 28 28 24 24

(New Taiwan Dollar per Kilogram) 24 24 24 20 20 20 40 40 40

Import Access Commitment

South Korea Beef

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 39

Agricultural Policy Assumptions A for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

84 113

87 117

87 120

87 0

(Thousand Metric Ton) 87 87 87 0 0 0

87 0

87 0

87 0

87 0

Philippines Beef Pork Poultry

5 44 19

5 47 20

5 49 21

5 52 22

6 54 24

6 54 24

6 54 24

6 54 24

6 54 24

6 54 24

6 54 24

Poland Beef Pork Poultry

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

37 60 20

Slovakia Beef Pork Poultry

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

4 10 4

Taiwan Beef Pork Poultry

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

5 14 20

Import Access Commitment Mexico Pork Poultry

Maximum Subsidized Exportt Commitment Czech Republic Beef Pork Poultry

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

50 10 23

European Union Beef Pork Poultry

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

822 444 286

Hungary Beef Pork Poultry

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

28 35 111

Poland Beef Pork Poultry

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

0 81 13

Slovakia Beef Pork Poultry

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

28 5 11

40 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Commodity Price Projections P 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Wheat FOB U.S. Gulf CIF Rotterdam Canadian Thunder Bay Australian Wheat Board

121 143 113 95

130 153 123 103

132 155 123 104

137 161 129 109

150 177 143 121

152 179 145 123

155 182 148 152

159 187 152 152

Rice FOB U.S. Houston FOB Bangkok 5% Parboiled FOB Bangkok 100% B Grade

269 183 192

281 197 207

295 207 218

315 221 234

318 224 236

329 231 244

335 236 249

348 245 259

353 248 262

362 254 269

371 261 276

89 99

97 108

99 110

100 112

102 115

105 117

107 120

110 123

112 125

114 128

118 132

121

128

129

133

134

136

138

139

141

141

144

Sorghum FOB U.S. Gulf

90

92

93

Soybeans FOB U.S. Gulf CIF Rotterdam

96

98

100

103

105

107

110

113

182 205

176 197

177 198

181 203

188 211

194 217

199 223

205 230

211 236

215 241

218 244

Soybean Oil FOB Decatur FOB Rotterdam

314 315

326 321

332 323

347 330

364 338

383 348

403 357

424 367

447 378

463 386

484 395

Soybean Meal FOB Decatur 48% CIF Rotterdam

202 199

194 191

193 190

195 193

200 197

203 200

206 202

209 205

212 208

214 210

215 211

Rapeseed CIF Hamburg Cash Vancouver

190 192

181 180

184 184

184 183

194 197

197 200

204 210

207 214

216 225

217 227

222 233

Rapeseed Oil FOB Rotterdam

328

338

345

358

379

396

419

441

466

486

509

Rapeseed Meal FOB Hamburg

148

142

143

141

147

148

151

150

154

153

153

Sugar FOB Caribbean New York Spot

177 407

185 406

193 401

199 396

204 392

211 388

219 383

221 379

226 375

229 371

235 368

Cotton Cotlook A Index U.S. Farm

1,435 1,237

1,511 1,221

1,533 1,227

1,544 1,238

1,566 1,250

1,588 1,263

1,607 1,278

1,626 1,295

1,645 1,313

1,667 1,332

1,691 1,353

Corn FOB U.S. Gulf CIF Rotterdam Barley FOB Pacific Northwest

04/05

05/06

06/07

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 140 143 146 165 168 172 132 135 138 111 114 117

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 41

Commodity Price Projections P (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,635 1,586 1,538 7,316 7,263 7,260 1,527 1,477 1,429 1,311 1,255 1,208

Beef Nebraska Direct Fed-Steer U.S. Retail Steer Price, A1-A2, Edmonton Australian Export (CIF U.S.)

1,536 6,757 1,438 1,260

1,642 7,002 1,543 1,315

1,676 7,189 1,573 1,345

1,690 7,323 1,584 1,381

Pork Barrows and Gilts National Base 51-52% Lean Equivalent U.S. Retail Ontario Hogs Index

985 5,688 1,110

895 5,678 999

762 5,640 810

914 5,876 1,011

1,006 6,053 1,132

947 6,015 1,049

Chicken U.S. 12-City Wholesale U.S. Retail

1,239 3,419

1,258 3,457

1,264 3,490

1,264 3,504

1,264 3,510

Turkey U.S. Wholesale U.S. Retail

1,554 2,280

1,510 2,280

1,478 2,252

1,480 2,282

272 374 419 135 193

277 384 430 140 200

260 402 448 141 202

Cheese FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Canadian Wholesale Australian Export

1,854 2,555 5,038 2,438

1,844 2,530 5,153 2,431

Butter FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Australian Export

1,325 2,603 1,457

Nonfat Dry Milk FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Australian Export

1,880 2,260 1,935

Milk U.S. All Milk Canadian Target, Industrial Canadian Fluid Milk Australian Industrial Milk Australian Fluid Milk

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1,501 7,237 1,390 1,177

1,482 7,318 1,371 1,169

1,493 7,418 1,381 1,198

1,516 7,614 1,403 1,235

864 5,981 934

936 6,147 1,031

1,011 6,336 1,133

959 6,316 1,059

902 6,307 977

1,260 3,508

1,262 3,532

1,266 3,559

1,269 3,592

1,275 3,604

1,284 3,628

1,493 2,327

1,488 2,323

1,490 2,332

1,499 2,353

1,505 2,371

1,516 2,395

1,520 2,403

273 420 467 143 204

277 435 482 145 207

280 445 492 147 210

283 454 501 148 212

286 464 511 150 215

288 473 520 152 218

291 483 529 155 222

294 497 543 157 226

1,938 2,543 5,344 2,497

1,959 2,676 5,546 2,512

2,002 2,706 5,704 2,542

2,037 2,729 5,802 2,566

2,061 2,758 5,876 2,583

2,097 2,788 5,960 2,609

2,148 2,814 6,028 2,645

2,205 2,845 6,109 2,685

2,254 2,884 6,239 2,719

1,422 2,681 1,536

1,579 2,916 1,665

1,603 3,054 1,685

1,639 3,109 1,714

1,670 3,088 1,740

1,689 3,071 1,756

1,718 3,057 1,780

1,758 3,042 1,813

1,808 3,034 1,854

1,869 3,039 1,903

1,804 2,261 1,860

1,728 1,803 1,784

1,757 1,888 1,813

1,794 1,918 1,849

1,816 1,955 1,871

1,851 1,996 1,906

1,878 2,033 1,933

1,908 2,066 1,963

1,942 2,097 1,996

1,977 2,131 2,031

42 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Policy Prices and World W Prices by Commodity 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

Wheat EU Intervention FOB U.S. Gulf Canadian Thunder Bay Australian Wheat Board

103 121 113 95

99 130 123 103

103 132 123 104

Barley EU Intervention FOB U.S. Pacific Northwest

103 121

99 128

103 129

104 133

106 134

109 136

111 138

Corn EU Intervention FOB U.S. Gulf

103 89

99 97

103 99

104 100

106 102

109 105

Rice FOB Bangkok 5% Parboiled

192

207

218

234

236

Soybeans U.S. Loan Rate FOB U.S. Gulf

193 182

193 176

193 177

193 181

Rapeseed Cash Vancouver

192

180

184

Cotton Cotlook A Index

1,435

1,511

1,533

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

114 152 145 123

115 155 148 152

115 159 152 152

113 139

114 141

115 141

115 144

111 107

113 110

114 112

115 114

115 118

244

249

259

262

269

276

193 188

193 194

193 199

193 205

193 211

193 215

193 218

183

197

200

210

214

225

227

233

1,544

1,566

1,588

1,607

1,626

1,645

1,667

1,691

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton, Marketing Year) 104 106 109 111 113 137 140 143 146 150 129 132 135 138 143 109 111 114 117 121

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 43

Policy Prices and World W Prices by Commodity (continued) 2000 Beef EU Intervention Japanese Wholesale Dairy beef Wagyu beef Nebraska Direct Fed Steer Price U.S. Retail

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 2,880 2,961 3,033

2,994

2,835

2,823

2,808

8,096 17,013

8,215 17,172

8,408 17,179

8,753 17,587

8,826 17,226

8,774 16,600

1,536 6,757

1,642 7,002

1,676 7,189

1,690 7,323

1,635 7,316

Pork EU Basic Japanese Wholesale U.S. Barrows, Gilts U.S. Retail

1,394 4,417 985 5,688

1,421 3,736 895 5,678

1,533 3,713 762 5,640

1,525 3,968 914 5,876

Broilers EU Producer Japanese Wholesale U.S. 12-City Wholesale U.S. Retail

1,034 1,846 1,239 3,419

1,127 1,830 1,258 3,457

1,180 1,861 1,264 3,490

Butter EU Intervention U.S. CCC Purchase U.S. Wholesale FOB Northern Europe Canadian Support Australian Export

3,029 1,453 2,603 1,325 3,794 1,457

3,086 1,444 2,681 1,422 3,908 1,536

Nonfat Dry Milk EU Intervention U.S. CCC Purchase U.S. Wholesale FOB Northern Europe Canadian Support Australian Export

1,897 2,215 2,260 1,880 3,160 1,935

Cheese U.S. CCC Purchase U.S. Wholesale FOB Northern Europe Canadian Wholesale Australian Export

2007

2008

2009

2010

3,088

3,122

3,144

3,161

8,749 16,001

8,836 15,763

8,940 15,859

9,056 16,275

9,222 16,923

1,586 7,263

1,538 7,260

1,501 7,237

1,482 7,318

1,493 7,418

1,516 7,614

1,564 4,076 1,006 6,053

1,608 3,989 947 6,015

1,648 4,000 864 5,981

1,677 4,164 936 6,147

1,696 4,275 1,011 6,336

1,708 4,252 959 6,316

1,717 4,249 902 6,307

1,144 1,908 1,264 3,504

1,174 1,934 1,264 3,510

1,215 1,959 1,260 3,508

1,262 1,988 1,262 3,532

1,299 2,022 1,266 3,559

1,333 2,054 1,269 3,592

1,368 2,092 1,275 3,604

1,389 2,134 1,284 3,628

3,331 NA 2,916 1,579 4,074 1,665

3,313 NA 3,054 1,603 4,262 1,685

3,398 NA 3,109 1,639 4,414 1,714

3,406 NA 3,088 1,670 4,495 1,740

3,310 NA 3,071 1,689 4,562 1,756

3,188 NA 3,057 1,718 4,642 1,780

3,131 NA 3,042 1,758 4,710 1,813

3,153 NA 3,034 1,808 4,788 1,854

3,170 NA 3,039 1,869 4,903 1,903

1,932 2,212 2,261 1,804 3,274 1,860

2,086 NA 1,803 1,728 3,475 1,784

2,075 NA 1,888 1,757 3,640 1,813

2,128 NA 1,918 1,794 3,753 1,849

2,133 NA 1,955 1,816 3,839 1,871

2,073 NA 1,996 1,851 3,898 1,906

1,996 NA 2,033 1,878 3,986 1,933

1,961 NA 2,066 1,908 4,065 1,963

1,974 NA 2,097 1,942 4,153 1,996

1,985 NA 2,131 1,977 4,273 2,031

2,426 2,555 1,854 5,038 2,438

2,494 2,530 1,844 5,153 2,431

NA 2,543 1,938 5,344 2,497

NA 2,676 1,959 5,546 2,512

NA 2,706 2,002 5,704 2,542

NA 2,729 2,037 5,802 2,566

NA 2,758 2,061 5,876 2,583

NA 2,788 2,097 5,960 2,609

NA 2,814 2,148 6,028 2,645

NA 2,845 2,205 6,109 2,685

NA 2,884 2,254 6,239 2,719

Milk EU Target U.S. Support U.S. All Milk

286 218 272

291 218 277

314 NA 260

313 NA 273

321 NA 277

320 NA 280

309 NA 283

295 NA 286

289 NA 288

291 NA 291

292 NA 294

Canadian Target, Industrial Canadian Fluid Milk, Ontario Australian Industrial Milk Australian Fluid Milk

374 419 135 193

384 430 140 200

402 448 141 202

420 467 143 204

435 482 145 207

445 492 147 210

454 501 148 212

464 511 150 215

473 520 152 218

483 529 155 222

497 543 157 226

U.S. CROPS

46 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Crop Planted Area Million Acres 85

80

75

70

65

60

55 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Wheat

2002/03 Corn

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Soybeans

U.S. Wheat Domestic Use Billion Bushels 1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Food, Other

2000/01

2002/03

Feed, Residual

2004/05 Seed

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 47

U.S. Corn Food and Industrial Use Billion Bushels 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99 Food, Other

2000/01

2002/03

Fuel Alcohol

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

HFCS

U.S. Soybean Utilization Billion Bushels 2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99 Crush

2000/01

2002/03 Exports

2004/05

48 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Crop Exports Billion Bushels 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Wheat

2000/01

2002/03

Corn

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Soybeans and Products

U.S. Crop Prices Dollars per Bushel 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99 Wheat

2000/01

2002/03 Corn

2004/05

2006/07

Soybeans

2008/09

2010/11

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 49

U.S. Cotton Prices Dollars per Pound 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Farm Price

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Loan Rate

U.S. Rice Prices Dollars per CWT 11

10

9

8

7

6

5 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Farm Price

2002/03

2004/05

Loan Rate

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

50 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Wheat Wheat planted area fell to 62.5 million acres in 2000/01. A further decline, down to 61 million acres, is expected for the 2001/00 crop as relative returns favor soybeans and feed grains. By 2010/11, wheat area is projected to grow to 64.4 million acres. Wheat area enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is projected to grow to 10.4 million acres by 2010/ 11. As of 2001, 9.6 million acres are idled under the CRP. Yield per acre for wheat hit 41.9 bushels per acre for 2000/01. Longer term, yields rise to 44.2 bushels per acre by 2010/11. Lower yield and fewer harvested acres reduced wheat production to 2.22 billion bushels in 2000/01. Production is projected to contract again in 2001/02 before rising to 2.5 billion bushels by 2010/11. Wheat feed and residual use is projected to increase to 298 million bushels for 2000/01. Feed use falls in the last half of the baseline as wheat prices increase. Feed use bottoms out at 257 million bushels in the 2004/05 crop year. Domestic food use is projected to continue to increase on a per-capita basis. Food use accounts for more than 1 billion bushels of disappearance by the 2005 crop year. U.S. wheat exports for 2000/01 are projected to increase to 1.125 billion bushels. The euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate impacts wheat exports greatly during the baseline. Exports fall to 1.044 by 2002/03 and then increase marginally, reaching 1.186 billion bushels by 2010. Ending stocks of wheat for 2000/01 decrease to 816 million bushels. Stocks decline in each year of the baseline, hitting 650 million bushels at the end of the 2010 crop year. Decreased supplies and ending stocks allowed prices to rise in 2000 relative to 1999. The season-average farm price for 2000/01 is projected to be $2.67 per bushel. Prices are projected to strengthen in 2001/02 due to reduced area. By the final year of the baseline, the U.S. wheat price rises to $3.55 per bushel. As market prices rise in the early part of the baseline, Loan Deficiency Payments (LDPs) are reduced. This will cause net returns for 2001/02 to be lower than for 2000/01. Thereafter, market net returns over variable production costs rise slowly throughout the projection period, as increases in market prices and yield are nearly offset by cost increases. By the end of the baseline, wheat returns plus LDPs rise to $83.68 per acre.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 51

U.S. Wheat Supply and a Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area

78.4 9.0 62.5 53.0

78.4 9.6 61.0 53.6

78.4 9.9 62.4 54.9

78.4 10.2 62.1 54.6

(Million Acres) 78.4 78.4 10.3 10.4 62.7 63.0 55.1 55.4

Yield Actual Program

41.9 34.5

41.1 34.5

41.3 34.5

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

3,268 950 2,223 95

3,114 816 2,203 95

Domestic Use Feed, Residual Seed Food, Other

1,327 298 84 945

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. FOB Gulf Price/mt PFC/MLA Payment/bu. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

78.4 10.4 63.3 55.7

78.4 10.4 63.6 55.9

78.4 10.4 64.0 56.3

78.4 10.4 64.2 56.5

78.4 10.4 64.4 56.7

41.7 34.5

(Bushels per Acre) 42.1 42.4 42.8 34.5 34.5 34.5

43.1 34.5

43.5 34.5

43.8 34.5

44.2 34.5

3,123 757 2,271 95

3,119 746 2,279 95

(Million Bushels) 3,140 3,162 3,181 726 715 705 2,320 2,351 2,381 95 95 95

3,201 694 2,413 95

3,225 682 2,448 95

3,244 673 2,476 95

3,261 663 2,503 95

1,304 263 89 953

1,333 278 89 967

1,331 260 90 981

1,343 257 91 994

1,356 258 92 1,006

1,370 259 93 1,018

1,381 258 94 1,029

1,399 264 95 1,041

1,413 265 96 1,052

1,424 265 97 1,063

1,125

1,053

1,044

1,063

1,083

1,101

1,118

1,139

1,152

1,168

1,186

2,452

2,357

2,377

2,393

2,425

2,456

2,488

2,520

2,552

2,581

2,610

816 0 105 60 651

757 0 95 71 591

746 0 93 71 582

726 0 93 62 571

715 0 93 59 563

705 0 93 56 556

694 0 93 53 548

682 0 93 49 540

673 0 93 48 532

663 0 93 46 524

650 0 93 43 514

2.67 2.58 121.17 1.22 63.00 112.03 16.19 65.22 35.77

2.88 2.58 130.24 0.47 68.21 118.46 1.99 52.23 13.83

2.91 2.58 131.63 0.46 65.34 120.45 0.67 55.79 13.43

3.03 2.58 136.84 0.46 64.89 126.58 0.00 61.69 13.43

(U.S. Dollars) 3.11 3.17 3.25 2.58 2.58 2.58 139.89 142.66 146.26 0.46 0.46 0.46 65.33 66.04 67.13 130.63 134.45 139.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 65.30 68.41 72.01 13.43 13.43 13.43

3.34 2.58 150.15 0.46 68.41 144.16 0.00 75.75 13.43

3.39 2.58 152.33 0.46 69.76 147.53 0.00 77.77 13.43

3.46 2.58 155.14 0.46 71.32 151.56 0.00 80.24 13.43

3.55 2.58 159.05 0.46 73.06 156.74 0.00 83.68 13.43

52 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Corn U.S. corn farmers increased planted area to 79.5 million acres in 2000/01. Favorable spring weather accounted for much of the increase. Corn area is expected to fall in the spring of 2001 to 78.0 million acres. Corn is expected to gain from worldwide food demand during the baseline; by the 2010/11 crop year, FAPRI projects that 80.9 million acres will be planted to corn. The national average corn yield rose to 137.1 bushels per acre in 2000/01. Earlier than normal planting and the long growing season boosted the yield. Assuming normal weather, corn yields come back down to the trend-line level in 2001/02 of 136.2 bushels per acre. Technological and genetic progress allows corn yields to grow at a rate of 1.3 percent per year during the baseline. Higher feed use is projected for the 2000/01 marketing year, at 5.783 billion bushels. Feed usage decreases in 2001/ 02 to 5.697 billion bushels. Steady growth in several livestock categories and stable crop prices cause feed usage to rise during the baseline period, reaching 6.207 billion bushels in 2010/11. Corn used for fuel alcohol production is projected to require 713 million bushels by 2010/11, up from the projected 2000/01 number of 593 million bushels. Federal tax exemptions for ethanol are assumed to continue at the levels currently set by law. The outlook for ethanol is surrounded with uncertainty given recent proposed changes by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regarding the use of Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE), ethanol’s major competitor. U.S. corn exports in 2000/01 are projected to increase to 2.102 billion bushels. Improvements in Asian economies and the decline in the U.S. dollar together increase the quantity of U.S. corn exported. Projected exports rise markedly throughout the remainder of the baseline. By the last year, U.S. corn exports are more than 2.8 billion bushels. Corn ending stocks for the 2000/01 marketing year are projected to rise to 1.851 million bushels. With a return to normal weather, ending stocks fall, slowly reaching 1.5 billion bushels by 2010/11. The quantity of stocks in the nine-month loan program at the end of each marketing year is modest, although higher levels during a given marketing year are possible. Abundant supplies and relatively high levels of stocks in 2000/01 keep pressure on corn prices. The farm price is projected to average $1.87 per bushel, up $0.05 from the prior year. For 2001/02, the farm price is expected to rise to $2.05 per bushel as fewer acres are planted and exports rise. Market transition payments average $22.82 per acre during the baseline. Market net returns plus LDP payments over variable costs are projected to rise during the baseline, hitting $188.35 per acre by 2010/11. The increases in yield offset higher production costs in each year. As prices strengthen, the returns rise.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 53

U.S. Corn Supply an nd Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

81.5 4.3 79.5 72.7

81.5 4.6 78.0 71.4

81.4 4.7 78.7 72.1

81.4 4.9 78.9 72.4

81.4 5.0 80.0 73.5

81.4 5.0 80.5 74.0

81.4 5.0 80.8 74.4

81.4 5.0 80.8 74.4

81.4 5.0 80.9 74.6

137.1 102.6

136.2 102.6

138.1 102.6

140.0 102.6

(Bushels per Acre) 141.9 143.8 145.7 102.6 102.6 102.6

147.5 102.6

149.4 102.6

151.2 102.6

153.1 102.6

11,696 1,718 9,968 10

11,582 1,851 9,722 10

11,679 1,719 9,950 10

11,833 1,690 10,134 10

(Million Bushels) 12,002 12,175 12,358 1,672 1,655 1,636 10,319 10,511 10,713 10 10 10

12,545 1,613 10,922 10

12,719 1,595 11,113 10

12,852 1,583 11,259 10

12,985 1,555 11,420 10

Domestic Use Feed, Residual Fuel Alcohol HFCS Seed Food, Other

7,743 5,783 593 547 20 800

7,714 5,697 617 563 20 817

7,816 5,751 628 582 20 834

7,954 5,854 634 599 20 847

8,048 5,910 641 616 20 860

8,148 5,969 651 632 20 876

8,258 6,040 659 647 21 891

8,379 6,117 671 663 21 907

8,460 6,151 687 679 21 923

8,534 6,179 701 695 21 939

8,605 6,207 713 710 21 954

Exports

2,102

2,149

2,174

2,207

2,299

2,391

2,487

2,571

2,676

2,762

2,858

Total Use

9,845

9,863

9,990

10,161

10,347

10,540

10,746

10,949

11,136

11,296

11,463

Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks

1,851 0 15 389 1,446

1,719 0 25 389 1,305

1,690 0 10 408 1,271

1,672 0 5 392 1,275

1,655 0 0 373 1,282

1,636 0 0 349 1,286

1,613 0 0 324 1,289

1,595 0 0 305 1,290

1,583 0 0 293 1,290

1,555 0 0 275 1,281

1,523 0 0 252 1,270

1.87 1.89 88.78 0.70 172.20 256.01 30.96 114.77 60.76

2.05 1.89 96.54 0.27 184.83 279.07 5.58 99.82 23.44

2.10 1.89 98.60 0.26 176.82 289.57 0.00 112.75 22.75

2.14 1.89 100.39 0.26 175.95 299.48 0.00 123.52 22.75

2.30 1.89 107.40 0.26 182.81 335.43 0.00 152.62 22.75

2.36 1.89 109.83 0.26 186.61 348.02 0.00 161.42 22.75

2.41 1.89 111.81 0.26 190.63 359.30 0.00 168.67 22.75

2.47 1.89 114.47 0.26 195.24 373.22 0.00 177.98 22.75

2.54 1.89 117.53 0.26 200.35 388.70 0.00 188.35 22.75

Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area Yield Actual Program

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. FOB Gulf Price/mt PFC/MLA Payment/bu. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.

04/05

05/06

(Million Acres) 81.4 81.4 4.9 5.0 79.2 79.6 72.7 73.1

(U.S. Dollars) 2.18 2.24 1.89 1.89 102.31 104.64 0.26 0.26 177.38 179.58 309.94 321.91 0.00 0.00 132.56 142.33 22.75 22.75

54 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Sorghum Reduced area in the Southern Plains states pushed total sorghum planted area lower again in 2000, down to 9.2 million acres. Sorghum planted area falls to 9.02 million acres by 2010/11 as sorghum loses area to other crops. Sorghum area enrolled in the CRP totaled 1 million acres for the 2000/01 marketing year. New contracts are expected to add one hundred thousand acres to sorghum CRP area by 2010/11. The U.S. average sorghum yield decreased to 60.9 bushels per acre in 2000/01. The Plains states yields for 2000 fell relative to 1999. Sorghum yield is projected to reach 71.5 bushels per acre by 2010/11. Genetic improvement increases average sorghum yield at an annual growth rate of 0.56 percent per year. Sorghum feed use is projected to be 240 million bushels in 2000/01. A rising sorghum to corn price ratio is one reason for the decrease in feed use. Feed use of sorghum recovers in 2001/02 due to increased supplies. Exports of U.S. sorghum in 2000/01 are projected to be 200 million bushels. The volume of exports grows in each year of the baseline, reaching 256 million bushels by 2010/11. Worldwide demand for feed grains pulls the sorghum export figure higher. Potential problems with importing countries accepting genetically modified feed grains could aid grain sorghum exports. Japan and Mexico remain the largest export markets for U.S. sorghum. Sorghum ending stocks decreased in 2000/01 to 45 million bushels, down from 65 million bushels the previous year. The FAIR Act eliminated the Farmer Owned Reserve (FOR) program, and the market is the only holder of stocks in the baseline. With a return to normal weather, ending stocks are generally expected to remain below 61 million bushels during the baseline, falling to 43 million bushels by 2010/11. Because of the decline in ending stocks and despite the decline in export volume in 2000/01, the season-average sorghum farm price rose to $1.78 per bushel. Prices are projected to increase in 2001/02 to $1.84 per bushel. Sorghum prices will maintain a fairly constant relationship to corn prices, rising to $2.30 per bushel by 2010/11. Gross market returns are projected to rise in 2001/02 with a return to normal weather. Net returns over variable costs plus government payments currently are projected to rise relative to the previous year, but fertilizer and energy costs may prevent this from happening. In the future, net returns are projected to rise as the growth rate of yields and prices more than outpaces the growth in costs. In the 2010/11 marketing year, market returns hit $61.22.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 55

U.S. Sorghum Supp ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area

13.6 1.0 9.2 7.7

13.6 1.1 9.4 8.3

13.5 1.1 9.4 8.3

13.5 1.2 9.3 8.2

(Million Acres) 13.5 13.5 1.2 1.2 9.2 9.2 8.1 8.1

Yield Actual Program

60.9 56.9

68.0 56.9

68.3 56.9

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

535 65 470 0

609 45 564 0

Domestic Use Feed, Residual Food, Seed, Ind.

290 240 51

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. Sorghum/Corn Ratio FOB Gulf Price/mt PFC/MLA Payment/bu. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

13.5 1.2 9.2 8.1

13.5 1.2 9.2 8.1

13.5 1.2 9.1 8.0

13.5 1.2 9.1 8.0

13.5 1.2 9.0 8.0

68.8 56.9

(Bushels per Acre) 69.2 69.6 70.0 56.9 56.9 56.9

70.4 56.9

70.8 56.9

71.1 56.9

71.5 56.9

627 60 567 0

624 61 563 0

(Million Bushels) 621 621 58 56 563 565 0 0

621 54 568 0

621 52 569 0

619 50 569 0

617 49 568 0

615 46 569 0

349 298 51

356 305 51

354 303 51

349 298 52

340 289 51

336 284 51

334 283 51

329 278 51

322 270 51

316 265 51

200

200

209

212

216

227

234

236

241

249

256

490

549

566

566

565

567

570

571

570

571

572

45 0 2 5 38

60 0 2 6 52

61 0 2 6 53

58 0 0 5 53

56 0 0 5 51

54 0 0 4 50

52 0 0 3 48

50 0 0 3 47

49 0 0 3 46

46 0 0 3 44

43 0 0 2 41

1.78 1.71 0.95 89.68 0.83 92.88 108.54 10.80 26.46 40.38

1.84 1.71 0.90 92.24 0.32 96.98 125.07 1.32 29.42 15.57

1.87 1.69 0.89 93.50 0.31 93.47 127.70 0.00 34.24 15.12

1.91 1.69 0.90 95.55 0.31 93.00 131.69 0.00 38.69 15.12

(U.S. Dollars) 1.96 2.02 2.09 1.70 1.71 1.70 0.90 0.90 0.91 97.61 100.48 103.24 0.31 0.31 0.31 93.55 94.37 95.77 135.69 140.95 146.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.14 46.58 50.29 15.12 15.12 15.12

2.13 1.70 0.90 105.21 0.31 97.41 149.97 0.00 52.56 15.12

2.17 1.70 0.90 107.08 0.31 99.18 153.74 0.00 54.56 15.12

2.24 1.71 0.91 109.90 0.31 101.24 159.03 0.00 57.78 15.12

2.30 1.71 0.91 113.01 0.31 103.53 164.76 0.00 61.22 15.12

56 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Barley Barley planted area is projected to rise for the 2001/02 season to 5.9 million acres. By marketing year 2010/11, barley planted area is projected to decline to 5.7 million acres. Barley loses some of its share of total U.S. cropland, continuing a long, ongoing trend. Land formerly devoted to barley production is planted to other crops, including soybeans, minor oilseeds, and corn. U.S. barley yield in 2000/01 was 61.1 bushels per acre, the highest national average since 1992. Barley yields go up slowly during the baseline period, reaching 67.3 bushels per acre by 2009/10. This assumes an annual growth rate of 0.87 percent. Barley imports are projected to be 30 million bushels in 2000/01, and this level is assumed to hold during the entire baseline. Export levels of 47 to 59 million bushels are expected, making the U.S. a small net exporter of barley. Total domestic use for barley is projected to be relatively stable. Feed use, currently at 131 million bushels, will increase—to 139 million bushels by 2009/10—as prices for other feed grains go up. Barley food, seed, and industrial uses will grow only modestly, from 172 million bushels in 2000/01 to 182 million bushels in 2010/11. U.S. barley exports are expected to increase by 20 million bushels in 2000/01 to 50 million bushels. After a small contraction due to prices in 2001-2003, exports grow slowly during the baseline, reaching 59 million bushels by the end of the projection period. The European Union increases its exports of barley during the baseline. Barley ending stocks in 1999/00 stood at 111 million bushels, down from the previous year’s level of 142 million bushels. The projection for 2000/01 is 106 million bushels. Stocks are projected to fall during the baseline, supporting the barley price. The 2000/01 U.S. season-average barley farm price is projected at $2.12 per bushel, down from $2.13 per bushel in the prior year. Barley prices rise continually during the baseline. As corn prices rise in the end of the baseline, barley prices are pulled upward. By 2010/11, barley prices are projected to reach $2.58 per bushel. Market net returns over variable costs are projected to shrink to $48.15 per acre in 2001/02 despite higher prices. Decreased LDPs and increased costs are the cause. Returns are projected to recover for 2002/03. Yield increases more than offset cost-of-production increases through the remainder of the baseline, resulting in higher market net returns. Barley returns reach $71.80 per acre in 2010/11.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 57

U.S. Barley Supply and a Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area

11.1 0.8 5.8 5.2

11.1 0.8 5.9 5.3

11.1 0.8 5.8 5.3

11.1 0.9 5.8 5.3

(Million Acres) 11.1 11.1 0.9 0.9 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.2

11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2

11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2

11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2

11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2

11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2

Yield Actual Program

61.1 46.7

62.2 46.7

62.8 46.7

63.4 46.7

(Bushels per Acre) 64.0 64.5 65.1 46.7 46.7 46.7

65.6 46.7

66.2 46.7

66.8 46.7

67.3 46.7

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

459 111 318 30

469 106 332 30

471 106 335 30

473 105 338 30

(Million Bushels) 471 471 103 102 338 339 30 30

472 102 340 30

473 101 342 30

473 100 344 30

474 99 346 30

475 97 348 30

Domestic Use Feed, Residual Food, Seed, Ind.

303 131 172

316 143 173

318 144 174

320 145 175

318 143 176

317 141 176

317 140 177

317 139 178

318 138 180

319 138 181

320 139 182

50

47

48

49

51

52

54

56

57

58

59

Total Use

353

363

366

369

369

369

371

373

374

377

379

Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks

106 0 1 5 101

106 0 1 5 100

105 0 1 5 99

103 0 0 5 98

102 0 0 5 98

102 0 0 5 96

101 0 0 6 94

100 0 0 6 93

99 0 0 6 93

97 0 0 5 92

96 0 0 5 91

2.12 1.62 0.52 121.39 89.84 129.40 13.40 52.96 20.73

2.23 1.65 0.20 124.55 95.01 138.61 4.56 48.15 8.03

2.27 1.71 0.20 125.91 91.22 142.33 6.07 57.18 7.79

2.30 1.74 0.20 127.76 90.87 145.66 6.08 60.87 7.79

(U.S. Dollars) 2.33 2.37 2.41 1.76 1.73 1.70 0.20 0.20 0.20 129.51 132.82 134.74 91.61 92.60 94.09 149.00 152.57 156.60 5.23 0.81 0.00 62.62 60.78 62.51 7.79 7.79 7.79

2.44 1.69 0.20 137.71 95.82 160.44 0.00 64.62 7.79

2.48 1.68 0.20 140.22 97.65 164.00 0.00 66.35 7.79

2.52 1.66 0.20 141.61 99.77 168.56 0.00 68.79 7.79

2.58 1.65 0.20 145.24 102.12 173.92 0.00 71.80 7.79

Exports

Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. PFC/MLA Payment/bu. FOB Portland/mt Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.

04/05

05/06

58 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Oats Oats area planted decreased in 2000/01, down to 4.5 million acres. Planted area is projected to decrease in the longer term, falling to 3.8 million acres by the last year of the baseline. Returns for soybeans, minor oilseeds, and other feed grains are higher than for oats and pull oat plantings down. Harvested area in 2000/01 fell from a year ago to 2.3 million acres. Declining area devoted to oats has been an ongoing trend and, by the last year of the baseline, harvested area is projected to fall to 1.8 million acres. Oat yields increased to 64.2 bushels per acre harvested in 2000/01, the highest level since 1992. Yields show little growth in the baseline. Trend yield generates an annual increase of just under 0.5 percent. Net imports of oats are projected to rise to 98 million bushels in 2000/01. Oat exports are projected to be 2 million bushels per year. Net imports remain between 100 and 106 million bushels over the baseline period. Oat feed use is projected to be 176 million bushels in 2001/02 and then decrease every year of the baseline. At the end of the baseline, oat feed use falls to 148 million bushels. This feed use trend couples with flat food use to produce declining total use of oats. Food use of oats continues the trend of the past four years and does not increase significantly during the baseline. Total oat food by 2010/11 is approximately 72 million bushels. Oat ending stocks are projected to be 80 million bushels for the 2000/01 marketing year, weighing heavily on prices. Stocks decline during the baseline, down to 58 million bushels by the last year. The season average farm price for oats in 2000/01 is projected to be $1.06 per bushel. Oat prices are projected to rise in 2001/02 due to higher overall commodity prices. As prices of other feed grains rise during the baseline, oat prices are pulled along, reaching $1.44 per bushel in 2010/11. Oat contract payments average $0.02 per bushel during the baseline. Market net returns over variable costs in 2000/01 are projected at $32.74 per acre. This includes LDP returns of over $18 per acre. Net returns are projected to fall in 2001, despite rising prices. Rising prices in the latter years of the baseline help offset rising costs and flat yields. By 2010/11, per acre net returns for oats rise to $29.14 per acre.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 59

U.S. Oat Supply and d Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

6.7 0.3 4.5 2.3

6.7 0.3 4.5 2.4

6.7 0.3 4.2 2.2

6.7 0.3 4.1 2.1

Yield Actual Program

64.2 50.7

60.4 50.7

60.7 50.7

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

325 76 149 100

324 80 143 102

Domestic Use Feed, Residual Food, Seed, Ind.

243 175 68

Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. PFC/MLA Payment/bu. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

6.7 0.3 4.0 2.0

6.7 0.3 4.0 1.9

6.7 0.3 3.9 1.9

6.7 0.3 3.9 1.8

6.7 0.3 3.8 1.8

61.0 50.7

(Bushels per Acre) 61.3 61.5 61.8 50.7 50.7 50.7

62.0 50.7

62.2 50.7

62.5 50.7

62.7 50.7

313 78 131 104

304 73 126 105

(Million Bushels) 300 296 70 68 125 122 105 106

293 66 120 106

289 64 118 107

286 63 117 107

284 61 115 107

280 60 112 108

244 176 68

237 169 68

233 164 69

230 161 69

228 158 70

226 156 70

225 154 71

223 152 71

222 150 72

220 148 72

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

245

246

239

235

232

230

228

227

225

224

222

80 0 0 1 79

78 0 0 1 77

73 0 0 1 72

70 0 0 1 69

68 0 0 1 67

66 0 0 1 65

64 0 0 1 63

63 0 0 1 62

61 0 0 1 60

60 0 0 1 59

58 0 0 1 57

1.06 1.16 0.06 53.70 67.95 18.50 32.74 2.44

1.12 1.21 0.02 58.03 67.72 14.45 24.15 0.92

1.19 1.14 0.02 55.56 72.04 6.24 22.72 0.90

1.24 1.10 0.02 55.12 75.72 0.72 21.33 0.90

1.34 1.10 0.02 56.78 82.68 0.00 25.89 0.90

1.37 1.12 0.02 57.79 84.80 0.00 27.01 0.90

1.39 1.12 0.02 58.86 86.43 0.00 27.57 0.90

1.41 1.12 0.02 60.08 88.20 0.00 28.12 0.90

1.44 1.12 0.02 61.45 90.59 0.00 29.14 0.90

(Million Acres) 6.7 6.7 0.3 0.3 4.1 4.0 2.0 2.0

(U.S. Dollars) 1.27 1.31 1.11 1.10 0.02 0.02 55.43 55.96 77.99 80.31 0.00 0.00 22.56 24.35 0.90 0.90

60 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Hay Hay area harvested fell to 59.9 million acres in 2000/01. Drought conditions in the Southern Plains decreased the number of acres that could be harvested for hay. During the baseline, the beef cycle and beef prices play an important part in determining hay area harvested. Area harvested rises to 61.3 million acres by 2010/11. Hay yields per harvested acre rose in 2000/01 to 2.54 tons per acre. Yields are projected to increase at a rate of less than 0.5 percent per year, assuming normal weather. Hay disappearance is projected to decrease in 2000/01 to 155.4 million tons. Use then increases in each year of the baseline. In the last year of the projection period, hay domestic use rises to 164.8 million tons. Hay ending stocks in 2000/01 are expected to fall to 25.6 million tons. Ending stocks average 25.1 million tons throughout the baseline. The U.S. average all-hay price rose to $83.32 per ton in 2000/01 but is projected to fall in 2000/01 to a seasonaverage farm price of $82.99 per ton. The U.S. average alfalfa hay price rose to $84.34 per ton in 2000/01. In the 2001/02 crop year, alfalfa prices are expected to rise again to $87.17 per ton. The alfalfa hay price averages almost $4.40 higher than all-hay prices during the baseline.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 61

U.S. Hay Supply and d Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area

59.9

60.5

60.7

60.6

Yield

2.54

2.59

2.60

2.61

Supply Production Beginning Stocks

181.0 152.2 28.8

182.3 156.7 25.6

183.6 157.7 25.9

184.5 158.4 26.2

Disappearance

155.4

156.4

157.4

Ending Stocks

25.6

25.9

83.32 84.34

82.99 87.17

Prices All-Hay (crop year) Alfalfa (calendar year)

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Million Acres) 60.6 60.7

60.8

61.0

61.2

61.3

61.3

(Tons per Acre) 2.62 2.63

2.65

2.66

2.67

2.68

2.69

(Million Tons) 185.2 185.7 159.0 159.9 26.2 25.9

186.4 160.8 25.5

187.0 162.0 25.1

187.6 163.1 24.5

188.2 164.0 24.2

188.7 164.6 24.1

158.3

159.3

160.2

161.3

162.5

163.4

164.1

164.8

26.2

26.2

25.9

25.5

25.1

24.5

24.2

24.1

23.9

82.63 86.74

82.90 86.77

86.97 91.06

88.70 93.10

89.88 94.80

90.52 95.83

91.31 96.72

(U.S. Dollars) 84.09 85.36 87.77 89.27

62 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Peanuts The U.S. quota poundage remains unchanged at 2.360 billion pounds for the 2000/01 crop year. Increases in domestic food use during the baseline period cause the quota to grow 25 million pounds per year. Planted area is projected to rise to 1.543 million acres in 2000/01, despite weaker price signals. Low returns for other crops and increased crop insurance incentives account for the increase. As prices recover and the quota expands, area is projected to recover to 1.588 million acres by the end of the baseline. The U.S. average peanut yield fell to 2,499 pounds per acre in 2000/01. Using the assumption of normal weather and trend yields, peanut yields are projected to grow from 2,625 pounds in 2001 to 2,719 pounds by 2010. Domestic use of peanuts is projected to grow from 3.224 billion pounds in 2000/01 to 3.599 billion pounds in 2010/ 11. Food use of peanuts contributes the majority of the growth. However, the growth only keeps pace with the growth in population, implying that per-capita use is relatively flat. Despite decreased supplies, the farm price of peanuts fell to $0.252 per pound in 2000/01. Weaker export markets and low protein meal prices are part of the reason. As supplies grow over the baseline, prices are expected to remain under pressure during the baseline, never rising higher than $0.267 per pound.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 63

U.S. Peanut Supply y and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Program Quota Poundage

2,360

2,360

2,385

2,410

(Million Pounds) 2,435 2,460 2,485

2,510

2,535

2,560

2,585

Area Planted Area Harvested Area

1,543 1,316

1,494 1,444

1,570 1,518

1,559 1,508

(Thousand Acre) 1,571 1,574 1,577 1,519 1,523 1,525

1,581 1,530

1,584 1,532

1,586 1,534

1,588 1,536

Yield

2,499

2,625

2,626

2,639

(Pounds per Acre) 2,649 2,661 2,672

2,684

2,695

2,707

2,719

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

4,700 1,233 3,288 179

4,778 814 3,789 175

4,944 784 3,986 175

4,979 825 3,979 175

(Million Pounds) 5,023 5,053 5,078 823 827 826 4,025 4,051 4,076 175 175 175

5,104 824 4,105 175

5,129 824 4,130 175

5,152 823 4,154 175

5,174 822 4,177 175

Domestic Use Food Crush Seed, Feed, & Residual

3,224 2,125 684 415

3,282 2,169 688 425

3,368 2,224 719 425

3,410 2,267 718 425

3,445 2,297 723 425

3,475 2,325 726 425

3,502 2,350 727 425

3,528 2,373 730 425

3,553 2,395 733 425

3,576 2,416 735 425

3,599 2,438 737 425

663

713

751

746

751

752

751

753

753

754

754

3,886

3,994

4,120

4,156

4,196

4,227

4,254

4,281

4,306

4,330

4,353

814

784

825

823

827

826

824

824

823

822

820

0.252 0.305 376.38 252.28

0.267 0.305 403.97 297.40

0.258 0.305 386.47 289.95

0.259 0.305 384.58 299.13

(U.S. Dollars) 0.258 0.258 0.259 0.305 0.305 0.305 387.69 392.50 399.55 295.87 293.20 291.61

0.259 0.305 407.86 287.56

0.260 0.305 416.66 283.62

0.261 0.305 426.72 279.27

0.260 0.305 437.90 267.64

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices and Returns Season Avg. Price/lb. Quota Loan Rate/lb. Variable Expenses/a Average Net Returns/a

05/06

64 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products Soybean planted area rose in 2000/01 to 74.5 million acres, marking the eighth straight year of soybean area increases. Despite lower prices, soybean planted area is expected to expand again in 2001, as net returns per acre still compare favorably with competing crops. The government loan rate for soybeans shifts some land from other crops into soybeans. Longer term, soybean plantings range between 74.6 and 75.6 million acres. Soybean yields stood at 38.1 bushels per acre for 2000/01. Assuming average rainfall and temperatures during the baseline period, soybean yields grow to 43.6 bushels per acre by 2010/11. This is a growth rate of almost 1.1 percent per year. Production in 2000/01 came in at 2.770 billion bushels. For the 2001/00 crop, the high area and trend yield combine to produce a record crop of 2.946 billion bushels. By 2010/11, the United States is expected to produce 3.2 billion bushels. High soybean meal demand and ample supplies of soybeans caused crush use to rise to 1.601 billion bushels for the 2000/01 marketing year, and the strong demand is projected to continue. Crush is projected to rise to 1.9 billion bushels by 2010/11. Soybean oil domestic use increased in 2000/01, exceeding 16.4 billion pounds. For the coming marketing year, domestic use is projected at almost 17.2 billion pounds. With slow growth assumed for many competing fats and oils, domestic use continues to increase though 2010/11, topping 19.6 billion pounds. Domestic soybean meal use rose in 2000/01 to 31.2 million tons and is expected to rise again in 2001/02 to 31.5 million tons. Increases in livestock numbers during the projection period keep soybean meal uses rising during the baseline period. Meal domestic use rises above 37 million tons in the last year of the baseline. For the 2000/01 crop year, exports of soybeans are projected to be 975 million bushels, a new record. In the final year of the baseline, exports are projected to be 1,147 million bushels. The soybean season-average farm price moved sharply lower in 1999, on the heels of successive large crops in the United States and South America. The 2000/01 price is projected to rise from the 1999 level, to $4.75 per bushel. The potential for LDPs continues. Assuming trend yields, soybean prices are expected to average below the loan rate until the 2007/08 marketing year. By the final year of the baseline, the season-average farm price of soybeans is projected to be $5.77 per bushel. Soybean net returns, including government payments, remain strong throughout the projection period, as price and yield increases more than offset rising costs of production. Soybeans remain competitive with almost all other crops during the baseline. By 2010/11, soybean returns reach over $153 per acre.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 65

U.S. Soybean Suppl ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area

3.5 74.5 72.7

3.8 75.9 74.6

3.9 75.6 74.2

4.0 75.2 73.8

(Million Acres) 4.1 4.1 75.0 74.9 73.7 73.6

Yield

38.1

39.5

40.0

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

3,062 290 2,770 3

3,268 318 2,946 3

Domestic Use Crush Seed, Residual

1,769 1,601 168

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. Ill. Proc. Price/mt Bean/Corn Ratio Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Oilseed Assistance Pymts/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. 48% Meal Price/ton Oil Price/cwt Crushing Margin/bu.

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4.1 74.8 73.5

4.1 74.7 73.3

4.1 74.6 73.2

4.1 74.9 73.5

4.1 75.2 73.8

40.5

(Bushels per Acre) 41.0 41.5 41.9

42.4

42.8

43.2

43.6

3,366 393 2,970 3

3,406 410 2,993 3

(Million Bushels) 3,427 3,441 3,457 402 386 373 3,022 3,052 3,081 3 3 3

3,472 363 3,107 3

3,488 350 3,135 3

3,516 337 3,176 3

3,551 331 3,217 3

1,831 1,660 171

1,852 1,681 171

1,876 1,704 172

1,901 1,729 173

1,929 1,756 173

1,959 1,785 174

1,985 1,811 174

2,014 1,839 175

2,045 1,868 177

2,079 1,900 178

975

1,043

1,103

1,127

1,139

1,139

1,135

1,138

1,137

1,141

1,147

2,744

2,875

2,955

3,004

3,041

3,068

3,094

3,123

3,151

3,186

3,226

318 5 45 268

393 5 43 345

410 5 43 363

402 5 44 354

386 3 47 336

373 1 50 322

363 0 54 309

350 0 59 291

337 0 66 271

331 0 70 260

324 0 63 261

4.75 5.26 182.43 2.54 84.06 181.04 30.34 5.16 127.32 182.86 14.23 1.02

4.53 5.26 176.03 2.21 85.65 178.96 38.64 0.00 131.95 175.60 14.81 1.06

4.56 5.26 176.93 2.17 83.65 182.35 38.09 0.00 136.79 174.92 15.08 1.05

4.69 5.26 181.46 2.19 84.28 190.07 33.21 0.00 139.00 177.01 15.73 1.05

5.20 5.26 199.02 2.26 89.06 218.11 12.83 0.00 141.87 186.71 18.26 1.09

5.38 5.26 205.00 2.28 91.07 227.88 5.56 0.00 142.37 189.52 19.23 1.11

5.56 5.26 211.05 2.31 93.17 237.81 0.00 0.00 144.64 192.34 20.28 1.13

5.67 5.26 215.07 2.30 95.55 245.02 0.00 0.00 149.46 194.57 21.01 1.16

5.77 5.26 218.32 2.27 98.17 251.33 0.00 0.00 153.16 195.08 21.95 1.19

(U.S. Dollars) 4.89 5.06 5.26 5.26 188.29 194.05 2.24 2.26 85.72 87.20 200.48 209.71 25.41 18.71 0.00 0.00 140.16 141.22 181.18 184.13 16.51 17.39 1.05 1.07

66 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Soybean Meal Supply S and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

38,694 293 38,336 65

39,774 275 39,434 65

40,242 252 39,926 65

Domestic Use

31,227

31,582

7,192

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices, 48% Protein Decatur/ton Decatur/mt

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

40,791 250 40,476 65

(Thousand Tons) 41,370 42,025 42,715 251 252 254 41,054 41,708 42,396 65 65 65

43,336 256 43,014 65

43,991 258 43,668 65

44,693 261 44,367 65

45,461 262 45,134 65

32,291

32,996

33,580

34,260

34,909

35,597

36,210

36,914

37,665

7,940

7,701

7,544

7,538

7,512

7,549

7,480

7,520

7,516

7,529

38,419

39,522

39,993

40,540

41,119

41,771

42,458

43,077

43,730

44,430

45,194

275

252

250

251

252

254

256

258

261

262

267

182.86 201.57

175.60 193.57

174.92 192.81

177.01 195.12

(U.S. Dollars) 181.18 184.13 186.71 199.71 202.97 205.81

189.52 208.90

192.34 212.01

194.57 214.48

195.08 215.04

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 67

U.S. Soybean Oil Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

20,149 1,995 18,074 80

21,212 2,293 18,829 90

21,455 2,294 19,072 90

Domestic Use

16,454

17,138

1,401

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices Decatur/cwt Decatur/mt

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

21,720 2,287 19,343 90

(Million Pounds) 22,002 22,323 22,654 2,284 2,283 2,277 19,628 19,950 20,287 90 90 90

22,953 2,270 20,593 90

23,259 2,255 20,914 90

23,583 2,234 21,259 90

23,957 2,232 21,636 90

17,535

17,706

17,916

18,174

18,448

18,716

18,977

19,337

19,655

1,781

1,634

1,730

1,803

1,872

1,936

1,982

2,048

2,014

2,082

17,855

18,919

19,169

19,436

19,719

20,046

20,384

20,698

21,025

21,351

21,737

2,293

2,294

2,287

2,284

2,283

2,277

2,270

2,255

2,234

2,232

2,221

14.23 313.71

14.81 326.47

15.08 332.42

15.73 346.84

(U.S. Dollars) 16.51 17.39 18.26 363.95 383.38 402.54

19.23 423.89

20.28 447.06

21.01 463.20

21.95 483.82

68 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Rice U.S. rice planted area contracted to 3.065 million acres in 2000/01, down from 3.53 million acres in 1999/00. Higher expected returns for rice in 2001/00 will increase area to 3.29 million acres. Rice area falls near the end of the baseline to 3.32 million acres. U.S. rice harvested area yielded 6,278 pounds per acre in 2000. Yields are projected to return to normal trend levels for 2001 and then to show growth throughout the projection period, reaching 6,394 pounds per acre in 2010/11. Assuming trend yields, increased area will push 2001 rice production up slightly, to 197 million cwt. Production is projected to be 210 million cwt by the end of the baseline, as yield rises faster than area decreases. Imports are expected to continue to increase over the projection period. For the 2000/01 marketing year, 10 million cwt of rice is expected to be imported. By 2010/11, 15.7 million cwt per year is imported. Food use of rice continues to show sustained growth. A new record of 96 million cwt was set in 1999/01, and the 2000/01 marketing year is expected to best that level. By 2010/11, rice food use is projected to reach 121.6 million cwt. Compared to domestic uses, rice exports remain more sensitive to price levels. U.S. exports are projected to increase to 86.9 million cwt by 2003/04. Thereafter, the U.S. price rises, and exports shrink to 77.1 million cwt by 2010/11. Ending stocks of rice for 2000/01 are projected to decrease to 25.5 million cwt. Stock levels remain near their present values during the rest of the baseline. The U.S. average farm price is projected to decrease to $5.78 per cwt for marketing year 2000/01 due to a decline in total use. Prices strengthen slowly to above $7 per cwt by 2004/05 as world prices rise. Longer term, rice prices increase further, reaching $8.21 by the end of the projection period. Lower world prices increase LDP gains for rice in 2000/01, so much so that net returns to rice increase even though farm prices fall. Gross market returns increase in every year of the baseline as prices increase. Total returns of market plus government minus variable costs stood at $115 for the 1999 crop and rose to $155 for the 2000 crop. By 2010/11, returns rise to $158 per acre.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 69

U.S. Rice Supply an nd Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

4.17 0.01 3.07 3.04

4.17 0.01 3.29 3.26

4.17 0.01 3.42 3.38

4.17 0.02 3.41 3.37

Yield Actual Program

6,278 4,817

6,044 4,817

6,049 4,817

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

228.6 27.5 191.1 10.0

233.3 25.5 196.9 10.9

Domestic Use Food Seed Brewing Residual

123.1 97.1 4.1 15.4 6.5

Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks CCC Inventory "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Season Avg. Price/cwt Loan Rate/cwt FOB Houston/cwt PFC/MLA Payment/cwt Adjusted World Price/cwt Variable Expenses/a Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4.17 0.02 3.39 3.35

4.17 0.02 3.38 3.34

4.17 0.02 3.36 3.33

4.17 0.02 3.35 3.31

4.17 0.02 3.32 3.28

6,095 4,817

(Pounds per Acre) 6,136 6,178 6,221 4,817 4,817 4,817

6,264 4,817

6,306 4,817

6,348 4,817

6,394 4,817

241.3 25.5 204.4 11.5

244.0 26.6 205.4 11.9

(Million Hundredweight) 245.1 247.1 248.2 26.0 26.1 25.9 206.6 208.0 208.6 12.5 13.0 13.6

249.2 25.9 209.2 14.1

249.8 25.4 209.7 14.7

250.8 25.5 210.1 15.2

251.1 25.4 210.0 15.7

126.0 99.5 4.4 15.6 6.5

128.6 101.9 4.4 15.8 6.5

131.1 104.2 4.4 16.0 6.5

133.8 106.8 4.4 16.1 6.5

136.4 109.3 4.3 16.3 6.5

139.1 111.8 4.3 16.4 6.5

141.5 114.2 4.3 16.5 6.5

144.2 116.7 4.3 16.7 6.5

146.7 119.2 4.2 16.8 6.5

149.2 121.6 4.2 16.9 6.5

80.0

81.8

86.1

86.9

85.2

84.8

83.3

82.2

80.1

78.7

77.1

203.1

207.8

214.7

218.0

219.1

221.2

222.3

223.8

224.3

225.4

226.3

25.5 0.0 25.5

25.5 0.0 25.5

26.6 0.0 26.6

26.0 0.0 26.0

26.1 0.0 26.1

25.9 0.0 25.9

25.9 0.0 25.9

25.4 0.0 25.4

25.5 0.0 25.5

25.4 0.0 25.4

24.8 0.0 24.8

5.78 6.50 12.21 5.44 3.53 394.08 362.64 186.66 155.22 222.62

6.29 6.50 12.74 2.10 3.86 409.18 380.05 165.73 136.60 86.01

6.55 6.50 13.38 2.04 4.12 395.73 396.33 150.11 150.72 83.53

6.96 6.50 14.27 2.04 4.49 395.60 424.11 128.59 157.11 83.53

7.41 6.50 15.21 2.04 4.82 409.49 460.99 110.79 162.29 83.53

7.69 6.50 15.80 2.04 5.05 416.66 481.67 97.29 162.31 83.53

7.80 6.50 16.01 2.04 5.09 424.38 491.68 95.05 162.35 83.53

7.99 6.50 16.40 2.04 5.22 433.27 507.13 87.52 161.39 83.53

8.21 6.50 16.85 2.04 5.40 443.24 524.71 76.62 158.08 83.53

(Million Acres) 4.17 4.17 0.02 0.02 3.41 3.40 3.37 3.37

(U.S. Dollars) 7.05 7.26 6.50 6.50 14.44 14.90 2.04 2.04 4.54 4.72 398.73 403.02 432.35 448.43 126.66 116.36 160.28 161.77 83.53 83.53

70 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Upland Cotton Farmers seeded 15.37 million acres to upland cotton in 2000. For the 2001/02 marketing year, planted area is expected to rise to 15.6 million acres. Low returns for competing crops, high energy prices, and increased insurance incentives allow cotton area to hold. Longer term, cotton area falls as cotton returns lag behind corn and soybeans. Planted area is expected to decline, reaching 15.04 million acres by the last year of the baseline. The national average cotton yield rose to 625 pounds per acre in 2000. The largest increase in yield came in the western regions. Longer term, cotton yields grow, but at a slow rate of 0.6 percent per year. In the last year of the baseline, the national average cotton yield is projected to be 676 pounds per acre. Increased textile imports pushed mill use lower in 2000, down to 9.67 million bales. A marked contraction in domestic milling is projected over the baseline. Mill use in 2010/11 is projected to fall to 9.63 million bales. Cotton exports recovered in 2000/01 to 6.88 million bales. Higher world prices and tighter world stocks drove the increase. Exports are projected to continue to grow during the baseline, as the U.S. exports raw cotton and imports textiles. By 2010/11, exports will reach 9.56 million bales. Reflecting stronger world demand, cotton prices are expected to rise for the 2000/01 marketing year to $0.561 per pound. The season-average farm price projection for 2001/02, however, is lower due to higher acreage. By 2010/ 11, cotton prices are expected to rise to $0.614 per pound.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 71

U.S. Upland Cotton n Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

16.44 1.02 15.37 12.93

16.44 1.06 15.60 14.00

16.44 1.09 15.15 13.58

16.43 1.12 15.06 13.49

(Million Acres) 16.43 16.43 16.43 1.14 1.14 1.14 15.05 15.06 15.07 13.49 13.50 13.51

16.43 1.14 15.06 13.51

16.43 1.14 15.06 13.51

16.43 1.14 15.06 13.51

16.43 1.14 15.04 13.49

625 600

640 600

644 600

649 600

(Pounds per Acre) 654 658 662 600 600 600

665 600

669 600

673 600

676 600

20.54 3.67 16.82 0.05

22.70 3.98 18.67 0.05

22.81 4.53 18.23 0.05

22.83 4.52 18.26 0.05

(Million Bales) 22.88 22.94 23.00 4.46 4.39 4.32 18.37 18.50 18.62 0.05 0.05 0.05

23.02 4.24 18.72 0.05

23.03 4.15 18.83 0.05

23.02 4.04 18.93 0.05

22.97 3.92 19.01 0.05

Domestic Use Mill Use

9.67

9.91

9.87

9.85

9.82

9.78

9.76

9.73

9.69

9.66

9.63

Exports

6.88

8.25

8.41

8.51

8.66

8.82

8.98

9.14

9.29

9.43

9.56

Total Use

16.55

18.16

18.29

18.36

18.48

18.61

18.74

18.86

18.98

19.09

19.19

Unaccounted

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

-0.01

3.98 0.00 3.98

4.53 0.00 4.53

4.52 0.00 4.52

4.46 0.00 4.46

4.39 0.00 4.39

4.32 0.00 4.32

4.24 0.00 4.24

4.15 0.00 4.15

4.04 0.00 4.04

3.92 0.00 3.92

3.77 0.00 3.77

0.561 0.519 0.150 0.651 0.511 304.97 402.47 16.11 113.61 76.38

0.554 0.519 0.057 0.685 0.541 320.00 403.26 5.23 88.49 29.22

0.557 0.519 0.056 0.695 0.550 311.83 408.49 0.00 96.66 28.36

0.561 0.519 0.056 0.700 0.554 312.40 415.92 0.00 103.52 28.36

(U.S. Dollars) 0.567 0.573 0.580 0.519 0.519 0.519 0.056 0.056 0.056 0.710 0.720 0.729 0.563 0.572 0.580 315.61 319.46 324.78 424.10 432.25 440.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 108.48 112.79 115.93 28.36 28.37 28.37

0.587 0.519 0.056 0.737 0.587 330.57 450.05 0.00 119.48 28.37

0.595 0.519 0.056 0.746 0.595 336.66 460.00 0.00 123.35 28.37

0.604 0.519 0.056 0.756 0.604 343.56 469.50 0.00 125.93 28.37

0.614 0.519 0.056 0.767 0.613 351.18 479.76 0.00 128.58 28.37

Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area Yield Actual Program

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

Ending Stocks CCC Inventory "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Season Avg. Price/lb. Loan Rate/lb. PFC/MLA Payment/lb. Cotlook A Index/lb. Adjusted World Price/lb. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.

05/06

72 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Cottonseed Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

7,011 274 6,439 298

7,820 250 7,320 250

7,645 250 7,145 250

7,656 250 7,156 250

(Thousand Tons) 7,697 7,750 7,796 250 250 250 7,197 7,250 7,296 250 250 250

7,836 250 7,336 250

7,877 250 7,377 250

7,917 250 7,417 250

7,945 250 7,445 250

Domestic Use Crush Other

6,581 2,996 3,585

7,395 3,506 3,889

7,220 3,414 3,806

7,231 3,445 3,785

7,272 3,504 3,769

7,325 3,569 3,757

7,371 3,624 3,747

7,411 3,676 3,734

7,452 3,729 3,723

7,492 3,771 3,721

7,520 3,817 3,703

180

175

175

175

175

175

175

175

175

175

175

6,761

7,570

7,395

7,406

7,447

7,500

7,546

7,586

7,627

7,667

7,695

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

104.26 148.79 17.73 19.43

93.30 136.50 18.13 25.60

94.66 137.35 18.39 25.44

96.80 139.05 19.03 26.09

(U.S. Dollars) 100.07 103.04 105.86 142.27 144.35 146.17 19.81 20.69 21.57 26.72 27.48 28.23

109.22 148.24 22.55 28.88

112.89 150.31 23.61 29.50

115.10 151.89 24.34 30.30

117.37 152.08 25.29 31.08

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/ton Meal Price/ton Oil Price/cwt Crushing Margin/ton

05/06

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 73

U.S. Cottonseed Me eal Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

1,369 21 1,348 0

1,613 21 1,592 0

1,584 34 1,550 0

1,597 33 1,564 0

(Thousand Tons) 1,624 1,654 1,679 33 33 34 1,591 1,620 1,645 0 0 0

1,704 35 1,669 0

1,728 35 1,693 0

1,748 36 1,712 0

1,769 36 1,733 0

Domestic Use

1,248

1,479

1,451

1,464

1,490

1,519

1,545

1,568

1,592

1,611

1,632

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

1,348

1,579

1,551

1,564

1,590

1,619

1,645

1,668

1,692

1,711

1,732

21

34

33

33

33

34

35

35

36

36

37

148.79 164.01

136.50 150.46

137.35 151.41

139.05 153.27

(U.S. Dollars) 142.27 144.35 146.17 156.82 159.12 161.13

148.24 163.41

150.31 165.69

151.89 167.43

152.08 167.64

Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices Memphis/ton Memphis/mt

05/06

U.S. Cottonseed Oill Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1,016 49 959 8

1,163 52 1,101 10

1,145 63 1,072 10

1,154 62 1,082 10

(Million Pounds) 1,172 1,192 1,210 62 62 62 1,100 1,121 1,138 10 10 10

1,226 62 1,154 10

1,242 61 1,171 10

1,255 61 1,184 10

1,270 61 1,199 10

Domestic Use

834

974

958

967

985

1,006

1,023

1,040

1,056

1,069

1,084

Exports

130

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

125

Total Use

964

1,099

1,083

1,092

1,110

1,131

1,148

1,165

1,181

1,194

1,209

52

63

62

62

62

62

62

61

61

61

61

17.73 390.84

18.13 399.73

18.39 405.36

19.03 419.63

(U.S. Dollars) 19.81 20.69 21.57 436.70 456.22 475.46

22.55 497.07

23.61 520.61

24.34 536.65

25.29 557.49

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

Ending Stocks Prices Valley Points/cwt Valley Points/mt

05/06

74 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Sugar Due to the PIK program, beet harvested area fell below 1.4 million acres in 2001. Assuming that no additional PIK programs are available for future years, beet area approaches 1.5 million acres. Continued pressure on returns of competing crops leads to a modest increase in cane area in 2001. In the longer term, area remains at about 1 million acres. With modest yield growth assumed in the baseline, domestic sugar production expands from 8.5 million STRV in 2001 to 9.1 million STRV by 2010. As a result, growth in domestic use will be satisfied largely by increased imports from Mexico. Sugar domestic disappearance is projected to continue to increase on a per capita basis. By 2010, total domestic use reaches 11.6 million STRV. Tariff rate reductions will allow Mexico greater access to the U.S. market. By 2010, imports from Mexico are projected to be 1.2 million STRV. Increased sugar stocks have pressured prices downward in 2000. The New York spot raw price is projected to remain near the cane loan rate through 2004. By the end of the baseline, prices fall to $0.17 per pound, leading to heavy loan placements and forfeitures.

U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 75

U.S. Sugar Crop Pro roduction 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Sugar Beets Harv. Area (1,000 a.) Yield (tons/a.) Prod. (1,000 tons)

1,378 23.60 32,521

1,477 21.32 31,487

1,493 21.48 32,056

1,492 21.63 32,277

1,485 21.78 32,336

1,482 21.93 32,499

1,481 22.09 32,702

1,479 22.24 32,897

1,477 22.39 33,085

1,477 22.55 33,306

1,477 22.70 33,517

Sugarcane Harv. Area (1,000 a.) Yield (tons/a.) Prod. (1,000 tons)

997 34.60 34,495

1,018 35.03 35,642

1,027 35.11 36,051

1,028 35.19 36,191

1,026 35.28 36,193

1,023 35.36 36,182

1,020 35.44 36,159

1,017 35.52 36,129

1,014 35.61 36,095

1,010 35.69 36,055

1,007 35.77 36,010

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Thousand Short Tons, Raw Value, Fiscal Year) 12,972 13,308 13,622 13,941 14,282 2,000 2,167 2,354 2,521 2,695 8,913 8,960 8,968 8,989 9,014 2,059 2,181 2,300 2,431 2,573 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 276 258 224 188 150 128 268 421 587 768 400 400 400 400 400

14,601 2,892 9,037 2,673 1,256 1,017 0 400

14,898 3,071 9,058 2,769 1,256 1,113 0 400

15,188 3,228 9,084 2,877 1,256 1,221 0 400

U.S. Sugar Supply and a Utilization 2000

2001

2002

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports Non-Mexico TRQ Duty-Free NAFTA High-Tier NAFTA Tariff Other

12,317 1,639 9,042 1,636 1,096 28 5 507

12,541 2,219 8,538 1,784 1,256 128 0 400

12,668 2,002 8,784 1,883 1,256 227 0 400

Utilization Disappearance Exports

10,235 10,111 124

10,539 10,364 175

10,669 10,494 175

10,805 10,630 175

10,954 10,779 175

11,101 10,926 175

11,246 11,071 175

11,390 11,215 175

11,530 11,355 175

11,670 11,495 175

11,813 11,638 175

-137

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Ending Stocks

2,219

2,002

2,000

2,167

2,354

2,521

2,695

2,892

3,071

3,228

3,376

Prices N.Y. Spot Raw Sugar Cane Loan Rate

18.40 18.00

18.45 18.00

18.43 18.00

(U.S. Cents per Pound, Fiscal Year) 18.20 17.98 17.80 17.60 17.37 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00

17.17 18.00

17.00 18.00

16.84 18.00

Error Adjustment

U.S. LIVESTOCK AND DAIRY

78 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Cattle and Calves Million Head 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

U.S. Cattle Prices Dollars per CWT 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 1990

1992

NB Direct Fed Steers

OK City Feeder Steers

2010

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 79

U.S. Pork Production Billion Pounds 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Barrow and Gilt Price National Base 51 - 52% Lean Equivalent Dollars per CWT 60 55

50 45 40

35 30 1990

1992

1994

1996

80 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Poultry Production Billion Pounds 50

40

30

20

10

0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000 Broilers

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Turkeys

U.S. Poultry Prices Dollars per CWT 75

70

65

60

55

50

45 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

12-City Broiler

2002

2004

2006

Eastern Region Turkey

2008

2010

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 81

U.S. Livestock Production Billion Pounds 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Beef

2002 Pork

2004

2006

2008

2010

Broilers

U.S. Meat Net Exports Billion Pounds 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998 Beef

2000 Pork

2002

2004 Broilers

2006

2008

2010

82 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Dairy Cows Million Head 10.5

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

U.S. Milk Production Billion Pounds 190

180

170

160

150

140 1990

1992

1994

2008

2010

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 83

U.S. Cheese Consumption per Person Pounds 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

U.S. Milk Prices Dollars per CWT 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 1990

1992

1994

Class III

Class IV

All Milk

Support

2008

2010

84 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Beef The number of cattle in the United States declined for the fifth consecutive year, to 97.3 million head at the beginning of 2001. Declines in cattle numbers are forecast to moderate in the near future, as beef cows are projected to increase by 200,000 head during 2001. The next peak in the cattle cycle is forecast to occur in 2007 at 103.5 million head, an inventory number similar to the last cyclical peak in 1996. Beef production is projected to decline by over 600 million pounds in 2001. Production will not again reach the 2000 level until 2005 as cattle herds are rebuilt. Annual beef production tops 29 billion pounds near the end of the baseline. Domestic beef demand has shown strength recently, with per-capita consumption increasing 1.5 pounds the last two years despite increases in retail beef prices. The last time both per-capita beef consumption and beef retail prices increased for two consecutive years was 1974-75. If beef demand should weaken as it did in the 1980s and 1990s, the beef industry would not grow to the extent shown in the baseline. The U.S. is projected to become a net exporter of beef in 2006, as beef exports are forecast to increase by almost 50 percent over the ten-year projection period. Cattle prices should continue to be strong over the next three years. The Nebraska direct fed steer price, which has been driven by the increase in beef demand recently, should begin to benefit from reduced supplies in 2001. The Oklahoma feeder steer price is projected at over $95 per cwt for the next three years. This level would be moderated if feed costs were to increase from the low levels projected in the baseline. Net returns to the cow-calf sector of the cattle industry remain positive through the first portion of the baseline due to strong cattle prices. Returns become negative as supplies of beef build toward the end of the projection period.

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 85

U.S. Beef Supply an nd Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

98.0 33.5 36.5

97.3 33.4 35.4

97.2 33.6 34.8

97.9 34.0 34.7

(Million Head) 99.4 101.0 34.6 35.2 35.3 35.9

102.6 35.8 36.9

103.5 36.0 37.9

103.3 35.9 38.4

102.5 35.6 38.2

101.6 35.1 38.1

Supply Beginning Stocks Imports Production

30,372 411 3,076 26,885

29,797 460 3,125 26,212

29,539 380 3,225 25,934

29,679 380 3,326 25,974

(Million Pounds) 30,293 30,818 31,611 382 389 394 3,374 3,358 3,314 26,537 27,071 27,903

32,428 399 3,290 28,739

32,845 405 3,300 29,139

32,797 405 3,323 29,069

32,766 404 3,349 29,012

Disappearance Domestic Use Exports

29,912 27,372 2,540

29,417 26,811 2,607

29,159 26,563 2,596

29,298 26,755 2,543

29,904 26,996 2,908

30,424 27,388 3,036

31,212 27,851 3,362

32,022 28,409 3,614

32,440 28,569 3,871

32,393 28,597 3,795

32,364 28,587 3,777

Ending Stocks

460

380

380

382

389

394

399

405

405

404

402

99.3 69.6 0.7%

96.4 67.5 -3.1%

94.6 66.2 -1.8%

94.5 66.1 -0.2%

94.5 66.2 0.0%

(Pounds) 95.1 66.5 0.6%

95.9 67.1 0.8%

97.0 67.9 1.2%

96.7 67.7 -0.3%

96.0 67.2 -0.7%

95.2 66.6 -0.8%

69.65 6.2%

74.49 7.0%

76.00 2.0%

(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 76.64 74.16 71.94 69.78 0.8% -3.2% -3.0% -3.0%

68.08 -2.4%

67.20 -1.3%

67.72 0.8%

68.76 1.5%

94.54 14.4% 41.67 8.5%

96.81 2.4% 45.02 8.0%

97.92 1.1% 46.11 2.4%

98.41 0.5% 46.76 1.4%

81.73 -6.3% 39.62 -6.6%

77.65 -5.0% 36.79 -7.1%

75.07 -3.3% 35.78 -2.7%

75.29 0.3% 36.23 1.3%

77.10 2.4% 37.56 3.7%

Beef Retail Change

3.07 6.5%

3.18 3.6%

3.26 2.7%

3.32 1.9%

(U.S. Dollars per Pound) 3.32 3.29 3.29 -0.1% -0.7% 0.0%

3.28 -0.3%

3.32 1.1%

3.36 1.4%

3.45 2.7%

Net Returns Cow - Calf

73.18

87.03

93.71

94.25

(U.S. Dollars per Cow) 72.44 38.74 9.53

-14.44

-29.01

-30.07

-24.40

Cattle and Calves (Jan. 1) Beef Cows (Jan. 1) Total Cattle Slaughter

Per Capita Consumption Carcass Weight Retail Weight Change Prices 1100-1300 lb. Nebraska Direct Steers Change 600-700 lb. Oklahoma City Feeder Steers Change Utility Cows, Sioux Falls Change

94.07 -4.4% 45.42 -2.8%

2005

87.24 -7.3% 42.41 -6.6%

86 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Pork Barrow and gilt prices are projected at $40.60 per cwt in 2001 after averaging almost $45 per cwt in 2000. An increase in hog supplies that could lead to packing capacity constraints in 2002 drives hog prices close to levels seen in 1998 and 1999. For the remainder of the baseline, low feed costs contribute to barrow and gilt prices that average about $5 below the previous ten-year period. Pork production is forecast to set another record in 2001 at almost 19.6 billion pounds. Provided that adequate slaughter capacity exists over the period, pork production grows to nearly 22 billion pounds by the end of the projection period. The pork breeding herd is projected to continue its long-term decline, falling below 6 million head during the baseline. Continued strong growth in productivity overshadows decreasing breeding inventory numbers. The U.S. is projected to resume its growth in pork exports in 2001. Year-to-year increases in pork exports result in an export level of almost 2.3 billion pounds by 2010. Per capita consumption of pork is forecast to be in the 53 to 54 pound range over the baseline period, as steady supplies of pork are offered to the domestic market.

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 87

U.S. Pork Supply an nd Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

53.6 6.28 97.8

55.3 6.34 100.9

54.6 6.05 103.4

53.8 5.85 101.6

(Million Head) 54.4 55.4 5.93 6.03 101.6 103.6

Supply Beginning Stocks Imports Production

20,401 489 977 18,935

21,148 525 1,044 19,579

21,718 551 1,023 20,144

Disappearance Domestic Use Exports

19,876 18,609 1,267

20,597 19,223 1,374

Ending Stocks

525

Hogs on Farms Market (Dec. 1) Breeding (Dec. 1) Total Hog Slaughter

Per Capita Consumption Carcass Weight Retail Weight Change Prices Barrows & Gilts, Natl. Base 51-52% lean equiv. Change Sows, IA-S. Minn. #1-2, 300-400 Lb. * Change Pork Retail Change Net Returns Farrow - Finish * 6 Market prior to 1999.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

54.8 5.89 105.5

54.5 5.73 104.9

55.0 5.77 105.2

55.7 5.81 107.0

55.5 5.71 108.6

21,606 551 1,141 19,914

(Million Pounds) 21,726 22,169 22,638 522 523 540 1,187 1,144 1,112 20,016 20,502 20,986

22,710 549 1,183 20,977

22,914 536 1,239 21,139

23,324 535 1,238 21,550

23,739 550 1,219 21,969

21,167 19,655 1,512

21,084 19,547 1,537

21,203 19,608 1,595

21,629 19,902 1,727

22,089 20,221 1,868

22,174 20,235 1,939

22,379 20,341 2,038

22,774 20,608 2,165

23,179 20,895 2,284

551

551

522

523

540

549

536

535

550

560

67.5 52.4 -2.9%

69.1 53.6 2.4%

70.0 54.3 1.3%

69.0 53.6 -1.4%

68.6 53.3 -0.6%

(Pounds) 69.1 53.6 0.6%

69.6 54.0 0.8%

69.1 53.6 -0.8%

68.9 53.4 -0.3%

69.2 53.7 0.5%

69.6 54.0 0.6%

44.70 31.5%

40.60 -9.2%

34.54 -14.9%

42.46 8.3%

45.88 8.1%

43.48 -5.2%

40.91 -5.9%

29.83 54.8%

27.86 -6.6%

26.02 -6.6%

32.97 26.7%

31.13 -7.2%

35.21 13.1%

38.26 8.7%

35.31 -7.7%

33.88 -4.1%

2.58 6.9%

2.58 -0.2%

2.56 -0.7%

2.67 4.2%

(U.S. Dollars per Pound) 2.75 2.73 2.71 3.0% -0.6% -0.6%

2.79 2.8%

2.87 3.1%

2.86 -0.3%

2.86 -0.1%

11.46

6.60

0.45

4.59

7.01

4.17

1.10

(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 41.46 45.63 42.95 39.20 20.0% 10.1% -5.9% -8.7% 36.83 11.7%

33.56 -8.9%

(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 6.19 9.47 6.38 2.34

88 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Poultry Broiler production is expected to grow by over 800 million pounds in 2001, reaching almost 30.9 billion pounds. Broiler production will continue to grow over the forecast period but at a slower rate than the growth observed during the 1990s. Turkey production is expected to grow 2.6 percent in 2001. Annual growth in the 1-1.5 percent range for the remainder of the projection period will result in production of just over 6 billion pounds in 2010. Egg production growth is expected to slow to 1.2 percent in 2001, the lowest annual growth rate since 1995. Steady increases are then forecast, with production of nearly 7.9 billion dozen eggs forecast for 2010. The 2000 twelve-city broiler price of just over $0.56 per pound was the lowest annual broiler price observed since 1994. While slight price increases are forecast in the short run, the low feed cost forecasts contained in the baseline limit long-term broiler price strength. Turkey prices reached their highest annual level since 1986 at $0.70 per pound in 2000. Prices are forecast to stabilize in the $0.67-$0.69 per pound range over the baseline period. Per capita broiler consumption will continue its steady rise throughout the projection period, increasing 2-3 percent per year to reach almost 95 pounds per person by 2010. Net returns to the poultry sector are forecast to be relatively stable over the projection period. Changes in feed costs from those shown in the baseline would quickly impact the returns seen by poultry producers.

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 89

U.S. Broiler Supply y and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

Supply Beginning Stocks Production

30,871 796 30,075

31,664 800 30,864

32,581 822 31,759

Disappearance Domestic Use Exports

30,076 24,603 5,473

30,846 25,304 5,542

Ending Stocks

800

Per Capita Consumption Retail Weight Retail Weight less Pet Food Change Prices 12-City Wholesale Change Broiler Retail Change Net Returns

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

33,524 827 32,696

(Million Pounds) 34,526 35,438 36,386 834 844 849 33,691 34,594 35,537

37,342 855 36,487

38,360 862 37,497

39,397 874 38,524

40,511 885 39,626

31,758 26,123 5,635

32,693 27,080 5,613

33,685 28,101 5,585

34,593 28,892 5,701

35,535 29,834 5,701

36,484 30,759 5,724

37,490 31,678 5,813

38,516 32,533 5,983

39,614 33,487 6,127

822

827

834

844

849

855

862

874

885

901

89.2 76.7 -0.6%

91.0 78.0 1.8%

93.1 79.8 2.2%

95.6 81.9 2.6%

98.4 84.1 2.8%

(Pounds) 100.3 85.6 1.8%

102.7 87.6 2.3%

105.0 89.5 2.1%

107.2 91.3 2.0%

109.2 92.9 1.7%

111.5 94.7 2.0%

56.20 -3.3% 155.10 0.5%

57.07 1.5% 156.80 1.1%

57.32 0.4% 158.30 1.0%

57.34 0.0% 158.96 0.4%

(U.S. Cents per Pound) 57.35 57.17 57.24 0.0% -0.3% 0.1% 159.23 159.10 160.23 0.2% -0.1% 0.7%

57.43 0.3% 161.44 0.8%

57.55 0.2% 162.94 0.9%

57.83 0.5% 163.49 0.3%

58.24 0.7% 164.56 0.7%

9.44

9.79

9.83

9.68

8.67

8.51

8.53

8.67

9.44

2005

8.97

8.76

90 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Turkey Supply y and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Supply Beginning Stocks Production

5,593 254 5,339

5,729 250 5,479

5,826 272 5,554

5,906 279 5,627

(Million Pounds) 5,988 6,069 6,140 285 292 302 5,703 5,777 5,838

6,209 309 5,900

6,280 315 5,965

6,357 323 6,034

6,435 330 6,105

Disappearance Domestic Use Exports

5,345 4,911 434

5,458 5,038 420

5,547 5,120 427

5,622 5,188 434

5,696 5,251 445

5,768 5,307 461

5,833 5,360 473

5,895 5,413 482

5,959 5,460 499

6,028 5,516 512

6,097 5,572 526

Ending Stocks

250

272

279

285

292

302

309

315

323

330

338

Per Capita Consumption Change

17.8 -0.9%

18.1 1.7%

18.2 0.7%

18.3 0.4%

18.4 0.3%

(Pounds) 18.4 0.2%

18.4 0.1%

18.5 0.2%

18.5 0.0%

18.5 0.2%

18.6 0.2%

Prices Eastern Region Wholesale Change Retail Change

70.50 2.2% 103.42 4.1%

68.48 -2.9% 103.41 0.0%

67.05 -2.1% 102.16 -1.2%

67.15 0.2% 103.53 1.3%

(U.S. Cents per Pound) 67.74 67.51 67.60 0.9% -0.3% 0.1% 105.54 105.36 105.78 1.9% -0.2% 0.4%

68.01 0.6% 106.72 0.9%

68.25 0.4% 107.53 0.8%

68.76 0.7% 108.63 1.0%

68.92 0.2% 108.98 0.3%

11.45

8.84

7.01

6.87

6.45

6.37

6.58

6.43

Net Returns

7.17

2005

6.61

6.38

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 91

U.S. Egg Supply and nd Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports

7,044 8 7,028 9

7,130 10 7,115 5

7,217 5 7,207 5

7,310 5 7,300 5

(Million Dozen) 7,398 7,478 7,563 5 5 5 7,388 7,468 7,553 5 5 5

7,647 5 7,637 5

7,731 5 7,721 5

7,817 5 7,807 5

7,904 5 7,894 5

Disappearance Civilian Disappearance Shell Egg Breaking Egg Hatching Egg Exports

7,034

7,125

7,212

7,305

7,393

7,473

7,558

7,642

7,726

7,812

7,899

4,205 1,720 942 168

4,252 1,754 949 170

4,284 1,788 968 172

4,313 1,828 990 173

4,336 1,869 1,012 175

4,354 1,909 1,032 177

4,374 1,952 1,054 179

4,392 1,993 1,076 180

4,408 2,037 1,099 182

4,423 2,081 1,124 184

4,439 2,124 1,150 186

10

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Per Capita Consumption Shell Egg Change Breaking Egg Change Total

183.0 0.5% 74.9 1.3% 257.9

183.4 0.2% 75.7 1.1% 259.1

183.2 -0.1% 76.5 1.1% 259.6

182.8 -0.2% 77.5 1.3% 260.3

182.2 -0.3% 78.5 1.4% 260.7

(Eggs) 181.4 -0.4% 79.5 1.3% 260.9

180.7 -0.4% 80.6 1.4% 261.3

179.9 -0.4% 81.6 1.3% 261.6

179.1 -0.5% 82.8 1.4% 261.8

178.2 -0.5% 83.9 1.3% 262.1

177.4 -0.5% 84.9 1.2% 262.3

Prices N.Y. Grade A Lg. Wholesale Change Shell Egg Retail Change

68.90 5.0% 90.94 -5.2%

70.91 2.9% 93.38 2.7%

72.19 1.8% 94.83 1.6%

72.77 0.8% 95.74 1.0%

(U.S. Cents per Dozen) 72.03 72.37 72.80 -1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 95.29 96.00 96.86 -0.5% 0.7% 0.9%

72.20 -0.8% 96.65 -0.2%

72.95 1.0% 97.89 1.3%

73.23 0.4% 98.67 0.8%

73.57 0.5% 99.58 0.9%

6.41

7.79

8.46

8.75

6.71

7.09

7.03

6.99

Ending Stock

Net Returns

7.69

2005

7.66

7.70

92 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Dairy Milk production growth is expected to slow in 2001 relative to the previous two years. However, 2001 milk production is still forecast to top 170 billion pounds. After a slowdown in milk production growth in 2002 associated with the elimination of the price support program, milk production will grow at an annual rate near 1 percent for the remainder of the baseline, reaching almost 187 billion pounds in 2010. After increases in 1999 and 2000, the U.S. dairy herd continues its historical decline in 2001, falling to just over 8.5 million head by 2010. Continued increases in production per cow more than offset the declines in cow numbers. Cheese demand has been the major driver for increases in milk production over the last few years. The forecast growth in milk production would look much more pessimistic if cheese demand were to soften. The all-milk price is projected to show a slight increase in 2001, to $12.55 per cwt. When the price support program ends at the end of 2001 in accordance with current law, the all-milk price tumbles nearly 80 cents per cwt. The slowdown in production growth associated with the lower 2002 price then allows prices to strengthen moderately over the baseline, to $13.35 per cwt in 2010.

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 93

U.S. Milk Componen ent Supply and Utilization Milk-Fat Basis Fluid Use Whole Milk 2% Milk 1% and Skim Milk Other Product Use American Cheese Other Cheese Butter Nonfat Dry Evap and Condensed Frozen Products Whey Products Other Farm Use Milk Production % Fat Total Fat Supply Residual Fat Solids-Not-Fat Basis Fluid Use Whole Milk 2% Milk 1% and Skim Milk Other Product Use American Cheese Other Cheese Butter Nonfat Dry Total Nonfat Dry Nonfat Dry in Other Evap and Condensed Frozen Products Whey Products Other Farm Use Milk Production % SNF Total SNF Supply Residual Whey Residual SNF

2000

2001

2002

2003

1,534 611 351 83 489

1,528 599 350 86 493

1,524 592 349 89 494

4,291 1,218 1,152 1,054 6 69 710 12 71

4,360 1,234 1,189 1,062 6 68 717 12 71

45

44

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Million Pounds Milk Equivalent) 1,522 1,524 1,525 1,527 583 575 567 559 348 346 344 341 92 95 98 101 499 508 516 525

1,529 552 338 104 534

1,532 545 335 108 544

1,536 539 332 111 554

1,541 533 329 114 564

4,377 1,269 1,211 1,006 5 72 729 12 74

4,440 1,299 1,237 1,007 5 71 735 12 73

4,496 1,318 1,261 1,013 5 71 742 12 73

4,560 1,343 1,285 1,021 5 70 750 12 74

4,624 1,369 1,309 1,030 5 69 757 12 74

4,690 1,395 1,334 1,038 5 69 765 12 74

4,757 1,422 1,358 1,046 5 68 772 12 74

4,825 1,449 1,383 1,054 5 68 780 12 74

4,895 1,479 1,408 1,062 4 67 788 12 75

44

42

41

39

38

37

36

34

33

167,953 170,065 170,820 172,486 174,203 176,148 178,150 180,198 182,274 184,412 186,624 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 6,147 6,224 6,252 6,313 6,376 6,447 6,520 6,595 6,671 6,749 6,830 288

293

307

309

315

323

331

339

347

355

362

5,072 1,619 1,606 1,573 273

5,087 1,589 1,599 1,624 275

5,125 1,568 1,597 1,684 276

5,154 1,545 1,589 1,741 279

5,191 1,525 1,582 1,800 284

5,219 1,503 1,571 1,857 288

5,252 1,483 1,559 1,916 293

5,285 1,464 1,546 1,976 299

5,319 1,446 1,532 2,037 304

5,356 1,429 1,517 2,100 310

5,396 1,414 1,502 2,165 315

6,514 1,117 1,163 39 906 1,436 -531 532 1,021 1,365 371

6,600 1,132 1,200 40 926 1,353 -426 528 1,031 1,370 372

6,564 1,164 1,223 38 689 1,164 -475 557 1,048 1,462 383

6,641 1,192 1,250 38 675 1,149 -474 550 1,057 1,498 382

6,720 1,209 1,274 38 664 1,129 -465 545 1,068 1,539 383

6,817 1,232 1,298 38 667 1,124 -458 540 1,078 1,580 384

6,915 1,255 1,322 39 670 1,120 -450 536 1,089 1,620 384

7,014 1,279 1,347 39 673 1,116 -443 531 1,100 1,660 385

7,115 1,304 1,371 39 676 1,111 -436 527 1,111 1,701 386

7,218 1,330 1,396 39 679 1,107 -429 523 1,122 1,742 387

7,322 1,356 1,422 40 681 1,103 -422 519 1,134 1,782 388

107

104

104

100

96

93

90

87

84

81

78

167,953 170,065 170,820 172,486 174,203 176,148 178,150 180,198 182,274 184,412 186,624 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 14,612 14,796 14,861 15,006 15,156 15,325 15,499 15,677 15,858 16,044 16,236 2,147

2,199

2,251

2,303

2,341

2,385

2,430

2,475

2,522

2,570

2,619

798

805

819

809

807

810

813

Min. FMMO Class Prices Class I Mover Class II Class III Class IV

11.64 12.34 9.95 11.67

12.27 12.97 9.77 12.27

All Milk Price

12.33

12.55

815

817

819

820

10.95 11.65 9.79 10.95

(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 11.55 11.78 11.88 12.00 12.25 12.48 12.58 12.70 10.47 10.66 10.82 11.00 11.55 11.78 11.88 12.00

12.12 12.82 11.18 12.12

12.22 12.92 11.34 12.22

12.32 13.02 11.52 12.32

12.46 13.16 11.75 12.46

11.78

12.39

12.96

13.07

13.19

13.35

12.59

12.70

12.83

94 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

State-Level Dairy Supply Dairy cow numbers continue to show strong increases in California and Idaho over the projection period, with these states registering 201,000 more cows than 2000 inventories, up 11 and 32 percent, respectively. Increases in western herd numbers are more than offset by the decreases in Wisconsin and Minnesota dairy cows, down in 2010 from 2000 levels by 22 and 32 percent, respectively. National milk production per cow increases by almost 4,000 pounds over the projection period, though wide productivity variation exists among states. Though state-level milk prices tend to move in the same direction over the baseline, the end of the support program results in differences in the magnitude of milk price declines. Areas of the country with high fluid use or Class IV use see the largest decline in milk prices in 2002.

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 95

U.S. Dairy Cows by y State 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

25 1 139 42 1,523 88 26 11 157 87 8 347 120 147 215 91 132 59 40 84 23 298 534 36 154 18 77 25 19 16 250 693 71 50 262 91 90 617 2 23 102 95 348 96 160 120 247 17 1,352 6

22 1 143 42 1,542 91 24 11 157 86 8 365 116 155 213 94 131 56 38 82 21 293 512 34 150 18 79 25 18 15 261 681 69 51 265 91 91 609 2 21 102 93 341 99 159 119 247 16 1,312 5

20 1 147 41 1,558 93 22 11 155 84 7 379 112 160 210 97 128 54 36 81 19 286 490 32 145 18 80 25 18 14 271 663 67 51 263 90 91 599 1 20 102 90 333 100 158 118 245 15 1,274 5

18 1 150 40 1,564 94 22 11 153 83 7 393 109 163 208 97 125 53 35 79 17 281 468 30 141 18 80 25 17 13 282 644 65 51 263 89 92 583 1 19 102 88 324 102 157 117 244 14 1,233 5

(Thousand Head) 17 16 14 1 1 1 154 157 159 40 39 38 1,575 1,591 1,608 95 95 95 21 20 20 10 10 10 151 150 148 81 80 78 7 6 6 405 417 427 106 103 100 165 166 166 206 204 201 98 99 99 123 120 118 51 50 49 35 34 34 78 77 76 15 14 12 276 272 268 448 430 414 29 27 26 136 133 129 18 18 18 81 81 81 25 25 25 17 16 16 12 12 11 293 304 314 631 624 617 63 61 59 51 50 49 262 261 260 88 87 87 92 92 92 573 567 562 1 1 1 18 18 17 102 102 102 87 85 84 316 308 300 104 105 106 156 156 155 116 116 115 244 244 243 13 12 12 1,198 1,169 1,143 4 4 4

13 1 162 38 1,627 95 20 10 146 77 6 436 97 166 199 100 115 48 33 75 11 264 399 24 125 18 80 25 16 10 325 610 58 48 258 86 92 557 1 17 102 83 293 107 155 115 243 11 1,119 4

12 1 164 37 1,647 95 19 10 143 75 6 445 94 165 197 100 112 47 32 74 10 261 385 23 122 17 80 25 16 10 335 603 56 46 255 85 92 554 1 17 102 82 286 108 154 114 242 10 1,097 3

12 1 166 36 1,668 95 19 10 141 74 5 452 91 165 195 100 108 47 32 73 9 257 372 22 118 17 79 25 16 9 346 596 54 44 252 85 92 551 1 16 102 81 280 108 154 114 241 10 1,077 3

11 1 168 35 1,689 95 19 10 139 72 5 459 88 165 192 100 105 46 31 73 8 254 361 20 115 16 78 25 16 9 357 590 52 41 249 84 91 549 1 16 102 80 273 109 154 114 241 9 1,060 3

United States

9,227

9,173

9,077

8,969

8,888

8,716

8,666

8,620

8,578

8,826

8,769

96 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Milk Production on by State

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming United States

2000

2001

2002

2003

343 13 3,021 521 32,244 1,917 480 175 2,457 1,436 116 7,220 2,094 2,524 3,934 1,510 1,700 707 672 1,322 393 5,633 9,503 546 2,258 313 1,273 496 314 266 5,236 11,968 1,189 727 4,609 1,295 1,681 11,156 28 369 1,634 1,405 5,699 1,695 2,791 1,905 5,573 265 23,249 77

321 12 3,172 527 33,113 2,013 450 175 2,502 1,448 111 7,734 2,081 2,715 3,980 1,601 1,724 696 651 1,322 364 5,638 9,270 530 2,235 322 1,331 505 311 253 5,518 11,999 1,174 747 4,734 1,306 1,729 11,221 25 357 1,659 1,404 5,679 1,774 2,831 1,923 5,678 255 22,871 73

293 12 3,301 522 33,700 2,086 422 175 2,503 1,437 106 8,187 2,046 2,839 3,986 1,670 1,708 675 632 1,307 331 5,609 9,070 508 2,185 328 1,370 510 303 240 5,831 11,848 1,148 759 4,787 1,310 1,745 11,199 22 339 1,675 1,377 5,618 1,819 2,838 1,923 5,707 241 22,502 69

274 12 3,451 524 34,528 2,149 412 176 2,530 1,444 102 8,682 2,031 2,965 4,033 1,718 1,714 668 628 1,309 304 5,623 8,866 493 2,167 335 1,417 519 301 229 6,178 11,737 1,136 773 4,886 1,324 1,789 11,122 20 329 1,708 1,370 5,570 1,887 2,878 1,947 5,798 230 22,135 66

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Million Pounds) 257 241 227 11 11 11 3,593 3,729 3,861 525 524 523 35,329 36,209 37,135 2,202 2,244 2,285 406 404 402 177 178 179 2,551 2,568 2,580 1,447 1,447 1,446 99 96 93 9,154 9,607 10,043 2,014 1,995 1,976 3,057 3,125 3,182 4,071 4,105 4,136 1,764 1,808 1,851 1,715 1,711 1,703 661 656 653 628 626 624 1,310 1,310 1,310 279 256 234 5,641 5,659 5,678 8,677 8,504 8,347 477 462 446 2,146 2,122 2,099 339 342 343 1,454 1,485 1,510 527 534 542 299 297 296 220 210 202 6,525 6,879 7,239 11,719 11,783 11,848 1,122 1,108 1,093 779 778 772 4,973 5,046 5,110 1,335 1,346 1,356 1,824 1,855 1,883 11,115 11,186 11,271 18 16 15 322 316 312 1,739 1,770 1,801 1,367 1,365 1,364 5,519 5,467 5,418 1,944 1,994 2,040 2,916 2,954 2,993 1,969 1,991 2,013 5,887 5,972 6,056 220 210 200 21,820 21,589 21,390 63 61 59

215 11 3,990 520 38,105 2,323 401 180 2,589 1,443 91 10,463 1,955 3,236 4,165 1,893 1,691 652 621 1,311 214 5,698 8,207 430 2,075 343 1,529 550 296 193 7,607 11,910 1,078 760 5,162 1,366 1,908 11,369 14 309 1,832 1,365 5,371 2,081 3,034 2,037 6,137 190 21,221 57

203 11 4,114 517 39,116 2,358 399 181 2,594 1,439 88 10,867 1,933 3,288 4,191 1,934 1,675 651 618 1,313 195 5,718 8,080 415 2,052 341 1,545 557 296 185 7,981 11,968 1,063 741 5,203 1,376 1,930 11,478 13 307 1,862 1,366 5,326 2,119 3,074 2,061 6,214 181 21,079 55

193 10 4,235 513 40,160 2,391 399 182 2,596 1,433 85 11,259 1,911 3,339 4,216 1,975 1,656 652 613 1,315 178 5,740 7,970 399 2,029 338 1,556 565 297 178 8,364 12,026 1,047 717 5,234 1,386 1,950 11,602 12 306 1,893 1,369 5,284 2,154 3,116 2,086 6,291 171 20,970 53

184 10 4,353 508 41,237 2,421 398 183 2,594 1,426 83 11,639 1,888 3,389 4,240 2,015 1,633 653 608 1,319 162 5,763 7,878 383 2,006 335 1,565 573 298 170 8,754 12,086 1,031 687 5,257 1,395 1,967 11,740 12 305 1,924 1,372 5,244 2,187 3,159 2,112 6,367 162 20,896 51

167,953 170,065 170,820 172,486 174,203 176,148 178,150 180,198 182,274 184,412 186,624

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 97

State-Level All Milk k Prices 2000

2001

2002

2003

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

14.86 20.96 11.81 12.40 11.38 13.21 14.43 13.23 15.56 14.36 26.52 10.65 11.42 13.15 11.57 10.90 13.72 14.66 14.23 12.87 14.73 12.90 11.91 14.66 11.70 12.52 11.32 11.59 13.57 13.07 12.29 13.28 15.33 11.12 12.63 12.50 12.34 13.57 13.47 14.66 12.32 12.90 13.26 12.19 13.63 14.71 12.34 13.13 11.64 10.92

15.35 21.32 12.16 12.89 11.44 13.47 14.58 13.63 16.18 14.85 26.86 10.92 11.68 13.59 11.83 11.15 14.31 15.15 14.38 13.27 14.88 13.34 11.88 15.15 12.19 12.79 11.58 11.86 13.72 13.47 12.60 13.69 15.93 11.09 13.06 12.75 12.70 13.97 13.62 15.26 12.58 13.39 13.58 12.46 13.78 15.11 12.70 13.56 11.61 11.19

14.26 21.83 11.30 11.80 10.64 12.77 13.28 12.68 14.88 13.76 27.01 10.19 10.98 12.59 11.13 10.45 13.04 14.06 13.08 12.32 13.58 12.34 11.65 14.06 11.10 12.06 10.87 11.12 12.42 12.52 11.80 12.74 14.66 10.86 12.06 12.05 11.81 13.02 12.32 13.99 11.87 12.30 12.78 11.72 12.48 14.16 11.81 12.56 11.38 10.46

14.87 22.46 11.92 12.41 11.23 13.40 13.90 13.30 15.48 14.37 27.63 10.82 11.61 13.20 11.76 11.08 13.64 14.67 13.70 12.94 14.20 12.95 12.31 14.67 11.71 12.68 11.51 11.75 13.04 13.14 12.43 13.36 15.26 11.52 12.68 12.68 12.43 13.64 12.94 14.59 12.51 12.91 13.40 12.35 13.10 14.78 12.43 13.18 12.04 11.08

United States

12.33

12.55

11.78

12.39

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Dollars per Hundredweight) 15.09 15.20 15.34 22.67 22.79 22.93 12.14 12.26 12.40 12.63 12.74 12.87 11.41 11.51 11.63 13.61 13.74 13.89 14.12 14.24 14.37 13.52 13.64 13.77 15.71 15.81 15.93 14.59 14.70 14.84 27.84 27.97 28.11 11.03 11.15 11.30 11.82 11.95 12.10 13.42 13.54 13.67 11.97 12.10 12.25 11.29 11.42 11.57 13.87 13.97 14.10 14.89 15.00 15.14 13.92 14.04 14.17 13.16 13.28 13.41 14.42 14.54 14.67 13.17 13.29 13.42 12.51 12.66 12.82 14.89 15.00 15.14 11.93 12.04 12.17 12.90 13.02 13.17 11.72 11.84 11.99 11.97 12.09 12.24 13.26 13.38 13.51 13.36 13.48 13.61 12.64 12.77 12.91 13.58 13.69 13.83 15.48 15.58 15.71 11.72 11.87 12.03 12.90 13.01 13.15 12.89 13.02 13.17 12.65 12.77 12.91 13.86 13.98 14.11 13.16 13.28 13.41 14.81 14.92 15.04 12.72 12.84 12.99 13.13 13.24 13.37 13.61 13.74 13.88 12.57 12.69 12.84 13.32 13.44 13.57 15.00 15.12 15.25 12.65 12.77 12.91 13.40 13.51 13.65 12.24 12.39 12.56 11.30 11.42 11.57

15.47 23.07 12.54 13.00 11.75 14.04 14.51 13.91 16.05 14.97 28.25 11.45 12.24 13.81 12.39 11.72 14.22 15.27 14.31 13.55 14.81 13.56 12.99 15.27 12.30 13.32 12.14 12.38 13.65 13.75 13.05 13.97 15.83 12.20 13.28 13.32 13.05 14.25 13.55 15.16 13.14 13.50 14.03 12.98 13.71 15.39 13.05 13.78 12.73 11.72

15.57 23.19 12.66 13.11 11.85 14.16 14.63 14.03 16.15 15.07 28.37 11.57 12.37 13.92 12.52 11.85 14.32 15.37 14.43 13.67 14.93 13.67 13.14 15.37 12.41 13.44 12.27 12.51 13.77 13.87 13.17 14.08 15.93 12.35 13.39 13.45 13.16 14.37 13.67 15.26 13.27 13.61 14.15 13.11 13.83 15.51 13.16 13.89 12.88 11.84

15.69 23.32 12.79 13.23 11.96 14.30 14.75 14.15 16.26 15.19 28.50 11.71 12.51 14.04 12.66 11.99 14.42 15.49 14.55 13.79 15.05 13.79 13.31 15.49 12.53 13.58 12.41 12.65 13.89 13.99 13.31 14.21 16.04 12.52 13.52 13.59 13.29 14.49 13.79 15.37 13.41 13.73 14.28 13.25 13.95 15.63 13.29 14.02 13.04 11.98

15.85 23.48 12.96 13.38 12.11 14.48 14.91 14.31 16.40 15.35 28.67 11.89 12.69 14.20 12.84 12.16 14.56 15.65 14.71 13.96 15.21 13.95 13.52 15.65 12.68 13.75 12.59 12.82 14.06 14.16 13.48 14.37 16.18 12.73 13.68 13.76 13.46 14.66 13.96 15.51 13.59 13.88 14.45 13.42 14.11 15.79 13.46 14.18 13.25 12.15

12.96

13.07

13.19

13.35

12.59

2005

12.70

12.83

98 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Dairy Products Cheese consumption per person is expected to grow almost 4 pounds from 2000 to 2010. While this represents strong growth, it is still below the additional 6 pounds consumed in 2000 versus 1990. Cheese prices average around $1.15 per pound over the next two years before slowly increasing to $1.30 per pound by the end of the projection period. Butter prices show annual growth over the next few years, almost reaching $1.40 per pound by 2003. Prices then hover near $1.40 per pound for the remainder of the baseline. Nonfat dry milk prices take the biggest hit in 2002 as the price support program ends, falling 20 percent to $0.82 per pound. Though slowly increasing from this point, prices do not get above $1 per pound for the remainder of the forecast.

U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 99

U.S. Dairy Product Supply S and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Butter Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks Gov't Comm. CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP

1,315 36 1,332 13 30 0 30 4

1,324 36 1,348 13 30 0 30 12

1,254 36 1,278 13 30 0 30 12

1,256 36 1,279 13 29 0 29 12

(Million Pounds) 1,264 1,274 1,284 36 36 36 1,286 1,296 1,306 13 13 13 29 30 30 0 0 0 29 30 30 12 12 12

1,294 36 1,316 13 31 0 31 12

1,304 36 1,326 13 31 0 31 12

1,314 36 1,336 13 32 0 32 12

1,324 36 1,346 13 32 0 32 12

American Cheese Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks Gov't Comm. CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP

3,709 65 3,646 51 535 0 535 15

3,760 65 3,757 52 550 0 550 55

3,864 65 3,855 53 571 0 570 5

3,958 65 3,962 54 577 0 577 5

4,016 65 4,010 55 593 0 593 5

4,092 65 4,082 55 613 0 612 5

4,169 65 4,159 55 631 0 631 5

4,249 65 4,239 55 650 0 650 5

4,330 65 4,321 55 670 0 670 5

4,415 65 4,406 55 689 0 689 5

4,504 65 4,495 55 707 0 707 5

Other Cheese Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks

4,612 364 4,886 87 166

4,760 364 5,037 87 167

4,851 364 5,127 87 167

4,955 364 5,233 87 167

5,051 364 5,327 87 167

5,146 364 5,423 87 168

5,243 364 5,519 87 168

5,340 364 5,617 87 169

5,438 364 5,714 87 170

5,537 364 5,813 87 170

5,637 364 5,914 87 171

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks Gov't Comm. CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP

1,477 12 814 205 716 587 129 677

1,391 12 894 205 1,016 887 129 534

1,197 12 1,030 205 988 853 135 150

1,181 12 1,020 205 953 819 134 150

1,161 12 1,018 185 919 785 134 150

1,156 12 1,014 185 886 751 135 150

1,152 12 1,010 185 852 717 135 150

1,147 12 1,005 185 818 683 135 150

1,143 12 1,001 185 784 649 135 150

1,139 12 996 185 751 615 136 150

1,135 12 992 185 717 581 136 150

658 12 584 86 35

653 12 578 86 36

689 12 614 86 37

680 12 606 86 38

674 12 600 86 38

668 12 593 86 39

662 12 587 86 40

657 12 582 86 41

651 12 577 86 41

646 12 572 86 42

642 12 567 86 43

Evap. and Condensed Milk Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks

2005

100 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Dairy Product Supply S and Utilization (continued) Per Capita Consumption Butter Nonfat Dry Milk Total Cheese American Other Total Fluid Milk Whole 2% Lowfat Other Ice Cream Wholesale Prices Butter, AA, Central States Cheese, Am., 40#, WI Asmbly Pts Nonfat Dry Milk, AA, Cntral St Evaporated Retail Prices Butter, salted, AA, stick Cheese, Natural Cheddar Milk, Frsh, Whole Fortified Milk, Frsh, Lowfat Fortified

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

4.8 3.0 30.9 13.2 17.7 219.8 67.9 63.0 71.5 17.4 29.1

4.8 3.2 31.6 13.5 18.1 218.8 66.1 62.2 73.2 17.3 29.2

4.6 3.7 32.0 13.7 18.3 218.6 64.7 61.5 75.2 17.2 29.4

4.5 3.6 32.5 14.0 18.5 218.1 63.1 60.7 77.0 17.3 29.4

4.5 3.6 32.7 14.0 18.6 218.0 61.8 59.9 78.9 17.4 29.5

(Pounds) 4.5 3.5 33.0 14.2 18.8 217.7 60.4 59.0 80.8 17.5 29.5

4.5 3.5 33.3 14.3 19.0 217.4 59.1 58.1 82.6 17.7 29.5

4.5 3.4 33.6 14.5 19.2 217.3 57.8 57.1 84.5 17.9 29.6

4.5 3.4 34.0 14.6 19.3 217.2 56.6 56.1 86.4 18.0 29.6

4.5 3.3 34.3 14.8 19.5 217.2 55.5 55.1 88.3 18.2 29.7

4.5 3.3 34.7 15.0 19.7 217.4 54.5 54.1 90.3 18.4 29.7

118.08 115.89 102.50 139.75

121.62 114.74 102.58 139.05

132.26 115.35 81.76 136.30

138.51 121.37 85.64 138.33

(Cents per Pound) 141.01 140.05 139.29 122.75 123.80 125.11 87.02 88.69 90.52 138.89 139.06 139.45

138.68 126.47 92.24 139.81

138.00 127.66 93.71 139.97

137.62 129.03 95.13 140.18

137.83 130.84 96.64 140.65

2.49 3.82 2.75 2.62

2.57 3.85 2.83 2.70

2.67 3.88 2.65 2.53

2.78 4.03 2.73 2.61

2.85 4.20 2.81 2.68

2.86 4.25 2.82 2.69

2.87 4.30 2.84 2.71

2.90 4.36 2.86 2.73

(Dollars per Pound) 2.84 2.84 4.07 4.11 2.76 2.78 2.64 2.65

2.85 4.15 2.79 2.67

U.S. AGGREGATE MEASURES

102 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Land Use Million Acres 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Planted Planted, Hay and Idled

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Planted and Hay Planted, Hay, Idled, and CRP

Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Fiscal Year Billion Dollars 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 103

Consumer Price Index for Food Index, 1982-84 = 100 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Consumer Expenditures for Food Billion Dollars 900

800

700

600

500

400

300 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

104 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Government Outlays, Fiscal Year Billion Dollars 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Def/AMTA Payments

2002 LDP's

CRP

2004

2006

2008

2010

Other

U.S. Cash Receipts Billion Dollars 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000 Crops

2002 Livestock

2004

2006

2008

2010

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 105

U.S. Farm Income Billion Dollars 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998 Net Cash

2000

2002

Net Farm

2004

2006

2008

2010

2008

2010

Real NFI (1997$)

Crop Insurance Outlays, Fiscal Year Billion Dollars 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Total Obligations

2002

2004

Net Outlays

2006

106 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports Million Metric Tons 250

200

150

100

50

1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

Animals and Animal Products

1998/99

2000/01

Grains and Feeds

2002/03

2004/05

Oilseeds and Products

2006/07 Cotton

2008/09

2010/11

Other Products

Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports Billion Dollars 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

Animals and Animal Products

1998/99

2000/01

Grains and Feeds

2002/03

2004/05

Oilseeds and Products

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Cotton

Other Products

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 107

nimalAndFeedExp Value of U.S.

Animal and Grain Exports

Billion Dollars 25

20

15

10

5

1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Animal and Animal Products

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Grains and Feeds

SMTExp

Feed Equivalents of U.S. Meat Exports

Million Metric Tons 12

10

8

6

4

2

1990/91

1992/93

1994/95 Wheat

1996/97 Corn

1998/99

2000/01

Other Feed Grains

2002/03

2004/05

Soybean Meal

2006/07 Other Meals

2008/09

2010/11

108 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Land Use Under the provisions of the FAIR Act, CRP enrollment is capped at 36.4 million acres. Through 2000, CRP enrollment stood at 31.4 million acres. Original CRP contracts began to expire in 1997/98, and total CRP area fell to 30.5 million acres by 1998/99, as some contracts were not immediately extended. It is assumed that contract holders may re-bid their land and that new land may also be bid into the CRP. While not all bids will be accepted, and some current contracts will not be extended, the net effect is an increase in CRP area starting in 2000. Area in the program reaches 36 million acres by 2004/05. FAPRI assumes that the secretary of agriculture will seek to maintain the CRP area at or very near the maximum through the use of continuous sign-ups of riparian area and filter strips, state incentive programs, and traditional announced sign-ups. Given the price paths of program crops, the planting flexibility provisions of the FAIR Act allow corn and soybean area to expand. Longer term, acreage of cotton, rice, and other feed grains decline. This shifting is a continuation of the changes occurring while normal flex acres existed. The 0-85 and 50-85 programs, formerly 0-92 and 50-92, were eliminated by the FAIR Act. A portion of the land idled under such programs will remain unplanted and will receive payments for production flexibility contracts. Historically, these programs have idled more than 10 million acres of program crop area each year. Higher crop prices resulting from droughts or other demand shocks could bring the traditionally idled land back into production, but such price shocks are not assumed in the baseline projections. Total area planted to 15 principal crops increased 3.6 million acres in 2000/01 due to favorable planting weather and expectations of higher returns. For the 2001 crop year, planted area of the 15 crops is projected to total 260.6 million acres. The higher commodity prices in the last years of the baseline pull land back into production. By 2010/ 11, planted area reaches 264.6 million acres.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 109

U.S. Planted and Idl dled Area 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

293.1 261.7 31.4

294.1 260.6 33.5

296.4 261.9 34.5

296.5 261.0 35.5

(Million Acres) 297.6 298.3 298.8 261.6 262.1 262.6 36.0 36.2 36.2

299.4 263.2 36.2

300.0 263.8 36.2

300.4 264.2 36.2

300.8 264.6 36.2

Wheat Total Area Planted CRP

71.6 62.5 9.0

70.6 61.0 9.6

72.4 62.4 9.9

72.3 62.1 10.2

73.0 62.7 10.3

73.4 63.0 10.4

73.7 63.3 10.4

74.0 63.6 10.4

74.4 64.0 10.4

74.6 64.2 10.4

74.8 64.4 10.4

Corn Total Area Planted CRP

83.8 79.5 4.3

82.6 78.0 4.6

83.4 78.7 4.7

83.8 78.9 4.9

84.1 79.2 4.9

84.5 79.6 5.0

84.9 80.0 5.0

85.4 80.5 5.0

85.8 80.8 5.0

85.7 80.8 5.0

85.8 80.9 5.0

Sorghum Total Area Planted CRP

10.2 9.2 1.0

10.5 9.4 1.1

10.5 9.4 1.1

10.4 9.3 1.2

10.4 9.2 1.2

10.4 9.2 1.2

10.4 9.2 1.2

10.3 9.2 1.2

10.3 9.1 1.2

10.2 9.1 1.2

10.2 9.0 1.2

Barley Total Area Planted CRP

6.6 5.8 0.8

6.7 5.9 0.8

6.7 5.8 0.8

6.7 5.8 0.9

6.7 5.8 0.9

6.6 5.7 0.9

6.6 5.7 0.9

6.6 5.7 0.9

6.6 5.7 0.9

6.6 5.7 0.9

6.5 5.7 0.9

Oats Total Area Planted CRP

4.7 4.5 0.3

4.8 4.5 0.3

4.5 4.2 0.3

4.4 4.1 0.3

4.4 4.1 0.3

4.3 4.0 0.3

4.3 4.0 0.3

4.3 4.0 0.3

4.2 3.9 0.3

4.2 3.9 0.3

4.1 3.8 0.3

Soybean Total Area Planted CRP

78.0 74.5 3.5

79.7 75.9 3.8

79.5 75.6 3.9

79.2 75.2 4.0

79.1 75.0 4.1

79.0 74.9 4.1

78.9 74.8 4.1

78.8 74.7 4.1

78.7 74.6 4.1

79.0 74.9 4.1

79.3 75.2 4.1

Cotton Total Area Planted CRP

16.4 15.4 1.0

16.7 15.6 1.1

16.2 15.2 1.1

16.2 15.1 1.1

16.2 15.0 1.1

16.2 15.1 1.1

16.2 15.1 1.1

16.2 15.1 1.1

16.2 15.1 1.1

16.2 15.1 1.1

16.2 15.0 1.1

Rice Total Area Planted CRP

3.1 3.1 0.0

3.3 3.3 0.0

3.4 3.4 0.0

3.4 3.4 0.0

3.4 3.4 0.0

3.4 3.4 0.0

3.4 3.4 0.0

3.4 3.4 0.0

3.4 3.4 0.0

3.4 3.3 0.0

3.3 3.3 0.0

Peanuts Planted

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

5 Other Crops*

7.1

7.1

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.2

7.2

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.3

11.5

12.2

12.6

13.0

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.2

13.2

15-Crop Total Area Planted CRP

Other CRP Area

05/06

Hay Harvested

59.9

60.5

60.7

60.6

60.6

60.7

60.8

61.0

61.2

61.3

61.3

15 Crops + Hay Planted CRP

353.0 321.5 31.4

354.6 321.2 33.5

357.0 322.5 34.5

357.1 321.6 35.5

358.2 322.2 36.0

359.0 322.8 36.2

359.7 323.5 36.2

360.4 324.2 36.2

361.1 324.9 36.2

361.6 325.4 36.2

362.1 325.9 36.2

beans, and flaxseed. Harvested area for tobacco and rye. * Planted area of sunflowers, edible be

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 111

U.S. Wheat Producttion 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

9.05 0.47 1.99 0.20 0.92 0.36 0.01 2.79 0.35 1.94

9.61 0.51 2.11 0.22 1.01 0.39 0.01 2.96 0.39 2.01

9.91 0.52 2.18 0.23 1.05 0.40 0.01 3.04 0.40 2.07

10.19 0.54 2.24 0.23 1.08 0.41 0.01 3.13 0.41 2.13

(Million Acres) 10.34 10.39 10.39 0.54 0.55 0.55 2.27 2.28 2.28 0.24 0.24 0.24 1.10 1.11 1.11 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.01 0.01 0.01 3.17 3.19 3.19 0.42 0.42 0.42 2.16 2.18 2.18

10.39 0.55 2.28 0.24 1.11 0.42 0.01 3.19 0.42 2.18

10.39 0.55 2.28 0.24 1.11 0.42 0.01 3.19 0.42 2.18

10.39 0.55 2.28 0.24 1.11 0.42 0.01 3.19 0.42 2.18

10.39 0.55 2.28 0.24 1.11 0.42 0.01 3.19 0.42 2.18

Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

62.53 3.69 14.10 1.63 5.61 2.70 0.69 18.72 2.82 12.57

60.98 3.34 14.00 1.57 5.69 2.73 0.60 18.90 2.69 11.47

62.45 3.41 13.97 1.56 5.70 2.71 0.63 19.10 2.78 12.58

62.08 3.37 13.87 1.55 5.68 2.71 0.62 19.06 2.76 12.47

62.67 3.39 14.00 1.57 5.72 2.73 0.63 19.22 2.80 12.62

63.00 3.40 14.08 1.58 5.75 2.75 0.63 19.31 2.81 12.70

63.27 3.40 14.14 1.58 5.77 2.76 0.63 19.39 2.82 12.76

63.60 3.41 14.21 1.60 5.80 2.78 0.63 19.49 2.83 12.85

64.02 3.43 14.32 1.61 5.82 2.80 0.64 19.60 2.85 12.95

64.25 3.43 14.39 1.61 5.84 2.81 0.64 19.67 2.87 13.00

64.44 3.42 14.43 1.61 5.86 2.81 0.64 19.73 2.88 13.07

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

53.03 3.51 13.45 1.52 5.30 2.61 0.64 17.39 2.04 6.58

53.59 3.18 13.11 1.46 5.39 2.65 0.56 17.77 2.08 7.38

54.93 3.25 13.19 1.45 5.40 2.64 0.59 17.96 2.16 8.29

54.62 3.21 13.10 1.44 5.38 2.63 0.58 17.93 2.14 8.21

55.14 3.23 13.21 1.46 5.42 2.66 0.59 18.07 2.18 8.31

55.42 3.24 13.28 1.47 5.44 2.68 0.59 18.17 2.19 8.37

55.65 3.25 13.33 1.47 5.46 2.69 0.59 18.25 2.20 8.41

55.94 3.26 13.40 1.48 5.49 2.70 0.59 18.34 2.21 8.47

56.30 3.27 13.49 1.49 5.51 2.72 0.60 18.45 2.23 8.54

56.50 3.27 13.55 1.49 5.53 2.73 0.60 18.51 2.25 8.57

56.66 3.26 13.58 1.49 5.54 2.73 0.60 18.57 2.26 8.62

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

41.9 62.1 35.6 54.0 70.9 54.0 57.7 32.6 54.2 32.4

41.1 58.0 39.0 50.4 69.6 45.0 57.6 31.4 50.3 33.1

41.3 58.7 39.5 51.0 70.2 45.5 58.4 31.5 51.1 33.2

41.7 59.4 40.0 51.6 70.7 46.0 59.3 31.7 51.9 33.4

42.8 61.6 41.4 53.3 72.4 47.5 61.7 32.2 54.2 33.8

43.1 62.2 41.9 53.8 72.9 48.0 62.5 32.3 54.9 34.0

43.5 62.9 42.4 54.4 73.4 48.5 63.3 32.4 55.7 34.1

43.8 63.6 42.9 54.9 73.9 49.0 64.0 32.6 56.4 34.3

44.2 64.3 43.4 55.5 74.5 49.5 64.8 32.7 57.1 34.4

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

2,223 218 479 82 376 141 37 568 110 213

2,203 185 511 73 375 119 32 558 104 245

2,271 191 520 74 379 120 34 567 110 275

2,279 191 523 74 381 121 34 568 111 274

(Million Bushels) 2,320 2,351 2,381 194 197 200 535 544 553 76 77 78 386 391 395 124 126 128 35 36 37 576 581 587 115 117 119 279 282 284

2,413 203 562 80 400 130 37 592 122 288

2,448 206 572 81 405 132 38 598 124 291

2,476 208 582 82 409 134 38 603 127 294

2,503 209 590 83 413 135 39 608 129 297

(Bushels per Acre) 42.1 42.4 60.1 60.9 40.5 41.0 52.1 52.7 71.3 71.8 46.5 47.0 60.1 60.9 31.9 32.0 52.6 53.4 33.5 33.7

112 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Corn Productio on 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

4.28 1.87 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.83 0.05 0.51 0.35 0.15

4.58 2.02 0.50 0.04 0.01 0.89 0.05 0.54 0.38 0.15

4.72 2.08 0.51 0.04 0.01 0.92 0.05 0.55 0.40 0.16

4.86 2.14 0.53 0.04 0.01 0.95 0.05 0.57 0.41 0.16

Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

79.55 35.60 13.30 0.97 1.07 12.80 3.52 5.54 4.21 2.55

77.97 35.22 12.85 0.91 1.09 12.61 3.49 5.15 4.17 2.49

78.66 35.52 12.90 0.93 1.10 12.70 3.59 5.16 4.24 2.51

78.92 35.70 12.91 0.95 1.09 12.76 3.59 5.15 4.25 2.50

79.21 35.83 12.91 0.96 1.10 12.86 3.59 5.18 4.25 2.52

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

72.73 34.67 12.43 0.93 0.48 11.32 2.23 4.86 3.57 2.24

71.38 34.28 12.27 0.86 0.51 11.14 2.11 4.52 3.57 2.11

72.07 34.60 12.32 0.88 0.51 11.25 2.19 4.54 3.65 2.13

72.38 34.79 12.33 0.90 0.51 11.33 2.20 4.53 3.66 2.12

72.71 34.94 12.33 0.91 0.52 11.44 2.19 4.57 3.67 2.13

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

137.1 147.3 127.1 112.0 173.2 138.2 128.6 112.4 115.8 127.1

136.2 144.2 139.5 116.2 169.5 136.2 113.5 105.7 103.6 129.7

138.1 146.5 140.5 118.1 170.7 138.1 114.6 107.9 105.1 131.6

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

9,968 5,106 1,580 104 82 1,564 287 546 414 285

9,722 4,944 1,712 100 86 1,518 240 478 370 273

9,950 5,069 1,731 104 88 1,554 251 490 383 280

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17

4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17

4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17

4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17

4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17

79.55 35.96 12.92 0.98 1.11 12.97 3.58 5.23 4.26 2.54

79.98 36.12 12.95 1.00 1.13 13.09 3.58 5.28 4.27 2.56

80.46 36.31 12.98 1.02 1.14 13.22 3.58 5.34 4.29 2.59

80.79 36.45 12.98 1.03 1.16 13.33 3.57 5.39 4.29 2.61

80.77 36.37 12.96 1.04 1.17 13.39 3.54 5.42 4.26 2.62

80.87 36.36 12.96 1.06 1.18 13.44 3.52 5.47 4.26 2.63

73.08 35.08 12.34 0.93 0.53 11.56 2.19 4.62 3.69 2.15

73.54 35.25 12.37 0.94 0.54 11.69 2.18 4.68 3.71 2.17

74.04 35.46 12.39 0.96 0.55 11.83 2.18 4.75 3.73 2.19

74.41 35.61 12.39 0.98 0.56 11.95 2.18 4.80 3.74 2.21

74.44 35.56 12.37 0.99 0.57 12.02 2.15 4.83 3.73 2.21

74.60 35.57 12.37 1.00 0.58 12.10 2.14 4.88 3.73 2.23

140.0 148.9 141.5 120.0 172.0 140.0 115.7 110.2 106.6 133.5

(Bushels per Acre) 141.9 143.8 145.7 151.2 153.6 155.8 142.5 143.5 144.4 121.8 123.6 125.3 173.1 174.2 175.3 141.8 143.7 145.5 116.8 117.9 119.0 112.4 114.6 116.7 108.0 109.5 110.9 135.4 137.3 139.1

147.5 158.1 145.3 127.0 176.4 147.2 120.1 118.8 112.2 141.0

149.4 160.4 146.3 128.7 177.4 149.0 121.1 120.9 113.6 142.8

151.2 162.7 147.2 130.4 178.4 150.8 122.2 123.0 115.0 144.6

153.1 165.1 148.1 132.0 179.4 152.6 123.3 125.0 116.4 146.4

10,134 5,180 1,745 108 88 1,586 254 500 390 283

(Million Bushels) 10,319 10,511 10,713 5,283 5,387 5,494 1,757 1,771 1,786 111 114 118 90 92 95 1,623 1,660 1,700 256 258 260 514 530 546 397 404 411 289 295 302

10,922 5,606 1,801 122 97 1,741 262 564 419 309

11,113 5,712 1,813 126 100 1,780 264 580 425 315

11,259 5,787 1,821 129 102 1,813 263 594 429 320

11,420 5,871 1,832 132 104 1,846 264 611 434 326

(Million Acres) 4.93 4.96 2.17 2.18 0.53 0.54 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.96 0.97 0.05 0.05 0.58 0.58 0.42 0.42 0.16 0.17

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 113

U.S. Sorghum Prod duction 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

1.03 0.07 0.41 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.41

1.09 0.08 0.43 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.43

1.12 0.08 0.45 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.44

1.16 0.08 0.46 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.45

Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

9.20 0.37 4.38 0.46 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.18 0.14 3.62

9.40 0.37 4.36 0.43 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.86

9.40 0.37 4.32 0.43 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.91

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

7.72 0.36 3.91 0.44 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.12 0.09 2.78

8.29 0.36 3.97 0.41 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.10 3.32

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

60.9 92.7 58.9 78.2 77.6 0.0 82.8 49.0 58.4 57.2

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

470 33 230 34 1 0 1 6 5 159

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Million Acres) 1.17 1.18 0.08 0.08 0.47 0.47 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.46 0.46

1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46

1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46

1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46

1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46

1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46

9.28 0.37 4.24 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.88

9.23 0.37 4.19 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.88

9.19 0.37 4.15 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.90

9.19 0.37 4.11 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.92

9.17 0.37 4.07 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.15 3.94

9.11 0.37 4.02 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.93

9.05 0.36 3.97 0.41 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.94

9.02 0.36 3.93 0.41 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.95

8.30 0.36 3.93 0.41 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.10 3.37

8.19 0.35 3.86 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.10 3.33

8.14 0.35 3.81 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.10 3.34

8.11 0.35 3.77 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.10 3.35

8.11 0.35 3.74 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.10 3.37

8.09 0.35 3.70 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.11 3.39

8.04 0.35 3.66 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.11 3.38

7.99 0.35 3.61 0.39 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.11 3.38

7.96 0.34 3.57 0.39 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.11 3.40

68.0 87.7 75.3 77.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.1 64.7 57.2

68.3 88.3 76.0 77.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.2 65.7 57.4

68.8 88.8 76.6 78.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.3 66.6 57.6

(Bushels per Acre) 69.2 69.6 89.4 89.9 77.3 77.9 79.5 80.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.4 64.5 67.6 68.5 57.8 58.0

70.0 90.5 78.5 81.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.5 69.4 58.3

70.4 91.0 79.1 81.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.6 70.4 58.5

70.8 91.5 79.7 82.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.7 71.3 58.7

71.1 92.0 80.3 83.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.7 72.2 58.9

71.5 92.5 80.8 83.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.8 73.1 59.1

564 31 299 32 0 0 0 6 6 190

567 31 298 32 0 0 0 6 7 193

563 31 295 32 0 0 0 6 7 192

(Million Bushels) 563 565 31 32 294 294 32 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 7 7 193 194

568 32 294 32 0 0 0 6 7 196

569 32 293 33 0 0 0 6 7 198

569 32 291 33 0 0 0 7 8 199

568 32 290 33 0 0 0 7 8 199

569 32 289 33 0 0 0 7 8 201

114 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Barley Producttion 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

0.77 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.20 0.06 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.01

0.82 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.21 0.06 0.00 0.47 0.01 0.01

0.85 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.22 0.07 0.00 0.49 0.01 0.01

0.87 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.50 0.01 0.01

Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

5.84 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.36 0.20 3.37 0.12 0.00

5.85 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.67 0.36 0.19 3.36 0.13 0.00

5.85 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.68 0.36 0.19 3.35 0.13 0.00

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

5.20 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.31 0.19 2.92 0.09 0.00

5.34 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.58 0.33 0.17 3.03 0.10 0.00

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

61.1 0.0 105.8 0.0 72.8 63.8 74.8 51.0 86.0 0.0

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

318 0 12 0 114 20 14 149 8 0

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Million Acres) 0.88 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.51 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01

0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01

0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01

0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01

0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01

5.84 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.67 0.36 0.19 3.35 0.13 0.00

5.79 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.66 0.35 0.18 3.32 0.13 0.00

5.75 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.34 0.18 3.31 0.13 0.00

5.73 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.33 0.18 3.30 0.12 0.00

5.71 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.33 0.18 3.28 0.12 0.00

5.68 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.32 0.18 3.27 0.12 0.00

5.67 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.31 0.17 3.26 0.12 0.00

5.66 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.66 0.30 0.17 3.25 0.12 0.00

5.33 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.58 0.33 0.17 3.03 0.10 0.00

5.33 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.58 0.32 0.17 3.03 0.10 0.00

5.28 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.57 0.32 0.17 3.00 0.10 0.00

5.25 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.31 0.16 2.99 0.10 0.00

5.23 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.55 0.30 0.16 2.98 0.10 0.00

5.21 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.30 0.16 2.97 0.10 0.00

5.19 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.29 0.16 2.95 0.10 0.00

5.18 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.28 0.16 2.95 0.10 0.00

5.16 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.27 0.16 2.94 0.10 0.00

62.2 0.0 103.0 0.0 75.8 57.5 75.2 52.8 79.6 0.0

62.8 0.0 104.7 0.0 76.4 57.8 76.1 53.2 80.9 0.0

63.4 0.0 106.3 0.0 77.0 58.1 76.9 53.7 82.2 0.0

(Bushels per Acre) 64.0 64.5 65.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 108.0 109.6 111.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.7 78.3 78.9 58.4 58.7 59.0 77.7 78.6 79.4 54.2 54.7 55.1 83.4 84.7 85.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

65.6 0.0 112.7 0.0 79.5 59.3 80.2 55.6 87.1 0.0

66.2 0.0 114.2 0.0 80.1 59.6 80.9 56.0 88.3 0.0

66.8 0.0 115.7 0.0 80.6 59.9 81.7 56.5 89.4 0.0

67.3 0.0 117.1 0.0 81.2 60.2 82.4 56.9 90.6 0.0

332 0 12 0 119 19 13 160 8 0

335 0 13 0 121 19 13 161 8 0

338 0 13 0 121 19 13 163 8 0

342 0 14 0 124 18 13 165 8 0

344 0 14 0 125 17 13 166 9 0

346 0 14 0 126 17 13 166 9 0

348 0 14 0 127 17 13 167 9 0

(Million Bushels) 338 339 0 0 13 13 0 0 122 122 18 18 13 13 163 163 8 8 0 0

340 0 13 0 123 18 13 164 8 0

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 115

U.S. Oat Production n 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

0.26 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.12 0.01 0.01

0.28 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.13 0.01 0.01

0.29 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.13 0.01 0.01

0.29 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01

Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

4.48 0.55 0.32 0.00 0.44 0.90 0.29 1.15 0.19 0.66

4.50 0.54 0.27 0.00 0.46 0.90 0.30 1.14 0.20 0.69

4.23 0.48 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.84 0.27 1.06 0.19 0.68

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

2.32 0.38 0.13 0.00 0.09 0.67 0.24 0.61 0.10 0.12

2.36 0.39 0.13 0.00 0.09 0.68 0.24 0.61 0.10 0.13

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

64.2 69.6 48.4 0.0 80.3 69.4 60.7 61.0 67.2 43.1

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

149 26 6 0 7 46 14 37 7 5

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Million Acres) 0.30 0.30 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01

0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01

0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01

0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01

0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01

4.13 0.47 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.80 0.26 1.03 0.19 0.69

4.10 0.47 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.78 0.26 1.01 0.18 0.69

4.05 0.47 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.76 0.26 0.99 0.18 0.69

4.00 0.46 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.74 0.26 0.97 0.18 0.69

3.95 0.45 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.72 0.25 0.96 0.18 0.69

3.91 0.44 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.70 0.25 0.95 0.18 0.68

3.87 0.43 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.68 0.25 0.95 0.17 0.68

3.80 0.41 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.65 0.25 0.94 0.17 0.68

2.15 0.35 0.12 0.00 0.09 0.62 0.21 0.54 0.10 0.12

2.06 0.35 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.58 0.21 0.51 0.10 0.12

2.04 0.35 0.12 0.00 0.08 0.57 0.21 0.49 0.09 0.12

1.99 0.34 0.12 0.00 0.08 0.55 0.20 0.47 0.09 0.12

1.95 0.34 0.12 0.00 0.08 0.53 0.20 0.46 0.09 0.12

1.91 0.34 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.51 0.20 0.45 0.09 0.12

1.88 0.33 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.49 0.20 0.44 0.09 0.12

1.84 0.32 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.47 0.20 0.44 0.09 0.12

1.79 0.31 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.45 0.19 0.43 0.09 0.12

60.4 64.8 59.1 0.0 83.1 61.4 60.6 56.9 60.6 44.3

60.7 64.9 59.7 0.0 83.6 61.5 60.6 57.4 60.9 44.5

61.0 65.0 60.4 0.0 84.2 61.6 60.7 57.9 61.1 44.7

(Bushels per Acre) 61.3 61.5 65.2 65.3 61.0 61.6 0.0 0.0 84.8 85.3 61.8 61.9 60.7 60.8 58.3 58.8 61.4 61.6 44.9 45.1

61.8 65.4 62.3 0.0 85.8 62.0 60.8 59.2 61.8 45.2

62.0 65.5 62.9 0.0 86.3 62.1 60.9 59.7 62.1 45.4

62.2 65.5 63.5 0.0 86.9 62.2 61.0 60.1 62.3 45.6

62.5 65.6 64.1 0.0 87.4 62.3 61.0 60.6 62.5 45.8

62.7 65.7 64.7 0.0 87.8 62.4 61.1 61.0 62.7 45.9

143 25 8 0 7 42 14 35 6 6

131 23 7 0 7 38 13 31 6 6

126 23 7 0 7 36 13 30 6 6

(Million Bushels) 125 122 23 23 7 7 0 0 7 7 35 34 13 12 29 28 6 6 6 6

120 22 7 0 7 33 12 27 6 6

118 22 7 0 7 32 12 27 6 6

117 22 7 0 7 31 12 27 6 6

115 21 7 0 7 30 12 27 6 6

112 21 7 0 7 28 12 26 6 6

116 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Hay Production n 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

59.85 8.42 7.25 2.40 6.22 5.65 4.89 9.64 8.46 6.93

60.54 8.44 7.29 2.44 6.21 5.84 4.85 9.89 8.57 7.03

60.68 8.44 7.28 2.45 6.19 5.87 4.82 9.93 8.62 7.07

60.65 8.43 7.26 2.45 6.18 5.85 4.81 9.91 8.66 7.10

(Million Acres) 60.61 60.68 60.80 8.42 8.44 8.47 7.25 7.25 7.24 2.46 2.47 2.48 6.17 6.17 6.17 5.82 5.80 5.79 4.80 4.81 4.81 9.87 9.86 9.85 8.68 8.73 8.79 7.12 7.16 7.20

60.99 8.51 7.25 2.49 6.17 5.78 4.83 9.85 8.87 7.25

61.18 8.54 7.25 2.50 6.17 5.77 4.84 9.86 8.95 7.31

61.28 8.57 7.24 2.51 6.17 5.75 4.85 9.85 9.00 7.34

61.29 8.57 7.24 2.51 6.16 5.72 4.84 9.83 9.03 7.36

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

2.54 2.67 2.30 2.01 4.20 3.04 2.24 1.89 2.40 2.22

2.59 2.69 2.59 2.13 4.32 2.98 2.26 1.92 2.29 2.30

2.60 2.70 2.61 2.15 4.35 2.98 2.27 1.93 2.31 2.30

2.61 2.71 2.63 2.16 4.39 2.98 2.27 1.94 2.32 2.30

2.65 2.73 2.70 2.18 4.49 2.98 2.29 1.97 2.36 2.30

2.66 2.74 2.72 2.19 4.52 2.98 2.29 1.98 2.38 2.30

2.67 2.75 2.74 2.20 4.56 2.98 2.30 1.99 2.39 2.31

2.68 2.76 2.76 2.21 4.59 2.98 2.30 1.99 2.40 2.31

2.69 2.77 2.78 2.22 4.62 2.98 2.31 2.00 2.41 2.31

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

152.2 22.5 16.7 4.8 26.1 17.2 11.0 18.2 20.3 15.4

156.7 22.7 18.9 5.2 26.8 17.4 11.0 19.0 19.6 16.1

157.7 22.8 19.0 5.2 27.0 17.5 10.9 19.2 19.9 16.3

158.4 22.8 19.1 5.3 27.1 17.4 10.9 19.2 20.1 16.3

160.8 23.2 19.5 5.4 27.7 17.3 11.0 19.4 20.8 16.6

162.0 23.3 19.7 5.5 27.9 17.2 11.1 19.5 21.1 16.7

163.1 23.5 19.8 5.5 28.1 17.2 11.1 19.6 21.4 16.8

164.0 23.6 20.0 5.5 28.3 17.1 11.2 19.6 21.6 16.9

164.6 23.7 20.1 5.6 28.5 17.1 11.2 19.7 21.8 17.0

(Tons per Acre) 2.62 2.63 2.72 2.73 2.65 2.68 2.17 2.17 4.42 4.46 2.98 2.98 2.28 2.29 1.95 1.96 2.34 2.35 2.30 2.30 (Million Tons) 159.0 159.9 22.9 23.0 19.2 19.4 5.3 5.4 27.3 27.5 17.4 17.3 11.0 11.0 19.2 19.3 20.3 20.5 16.4 16.5

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 117

U.S. Soybean Produ uction 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

3.52 1.84 0.17 0.45 0.00 0.49 0.04 0.25 0.24 0.04

3.79 1.98 0.18 0.48 0.00 0.52 0.04 0.26 0.27 0.05

3.90 2.04 0.19 0.50 0.00 0.54 0.04 0.27 0.28 0.05

4.02 2.10 0.20 0.51 0.00 0.55 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05

Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

74.50 36.45 7.60 5.98 0.00 10.90 1.39 6.30 5.13 0.75

75.94 37.04 7.95 5.89 0.00 11.17 1.46 6.61 4.97 0.86

75.56 36.71 7.96 5.87 0.00 11.13 1.40 6.63 5.01 0.85

75.18 36.44 7.96 5.81 0.00 11.10 1.39 6.67 4.95 0.84

75.03 36.30 7.99 5.80 0.00 11.07 1.39 6.73 4.93 0.83

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

72.72 36.20 7.08 5.65 0.00 10.68 1.37 6.22 4.96 0.57

74.60 36.77 7.81 5.68 0.00 11.00 1.32 6.51 4.73 0.77

74.23 36.45 7.82 5.66 0.00 10.96 1.27 6.53 4.77 0.76

73.85 36.18 7.83 5.60 0.00 10.93 1.26 6.58 4.72 0.75

73.71 36.04 7.85 5.59 0.00 10.90 1.26 6.63 4.70 0.75

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

38.1 42.5 31.6 24.9 0.0 39.9 41.9 34.4 31.6 20.5

39.5 43.1 38.5 28.3 0.0 41.9 36.5 34.6 30.4 26.3

40.0 43.7 39.2 28.8 0.0 42.5 37.0 35.1 30.8 26.6

40.5 44.2 39.8 29.3 0.0 43.1 37.5 35.6 31.1 26.9

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

2,770 1,540 224 141 0 426 57 214 157 12

2,946 1,586 301 161 0 461 48 226 144 20

2,970 1,591 306 163 0 466 47 229 147 20

2,993 1,598 311 164 0 471 47 234 147 20

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05

4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05

4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05

4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05

4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05

74.94 36.17 8.03 5.78 0.00 11.05 1.39 6.79 4.91 0.83

74.83 36.04 8.06 5.77 0.00 11.02 1.38 6.86 4.88 0.82

74.65 35.87 8.09 5.75 0.00 10.97 1.38 6.92 4.85 0.82

74.56 35.73 8.13 5.74 0.00 10.94 1.38 6.98 4.84 0.81

74.87 35.84 8.17 5.74 0.00 10.96 1.41 7.04 4.89 0.81

75.16 35.90 8.25 5.77 0.00 10.99 1.42 7.12 4.91 0.81

73.62 35.92 7.89 5.57 0.00 10.88 1.26 6.69 4.67 0.74

73.51 35.78 7.93 5.56 0.00 10.85 1.25 6.76 4.64 0.74

73.33 35.61 7.96 5.54 0.00 10.80 1.25 6.82 4.61 0.74

73.24 35.48 7.99 5.53 0.00 10.77 1.25 6.88 4.61 0.73

73.55 35.59 8.03 5.53 0.00 10.79 1.28 6.94 4.65 0.73

73.83 35.64 8.10 5.56 0.00 10.83 1.29 7.02 4.67 0.73

41.9 45.5 41.5 30.7 0.0 44.7 38.9 37.0 32.2 27.9

42.4 45.9 42.1 31.2 0.0 45.3 39.4 37.5 32.6 28.2

42.8 46.3 42.6 31.6 0.0 45.8 39.9 37.9 32.9 28.6

43.2 46.6 43.1 32.1 0.0 46.4 40.3 38.4 33.2 28.9

43.6 46.9 43.7 32.5 0.0 46.9 40.8 38.8 33.5 29.2

(Million Bushels) 3,022 3,052 3,081 1,608 1,618 1,627 317 323 329 166 168 171 0 0 0 476 481 485 48 48 49 239 245 250 148 149 150 20 21 21

3,107 1,634 335 173 0 489 49 255 150 21

3,135 1,643 340 175 0 494 50 261 152 21

3,176 1,659 347 177 0 500 52 266 155 21

3,217 1,672 354 181 0 507 53 272 157 21

(Million Acres) 4.07 4.10 2.13 2.14 0.20 0.20 0.52 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.56 0.04 0.04 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.05 0.05

(Bushels per Acre) 41.0 41.5 44.6 45.0 40.3 40.9 29.8 30.3 0.0 0.0 43.6 44.2 38.0 38.5 36.1 36.5 31.5 31.9 27.3 27.6

118 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Rice Productio on 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

3.07 0.18 0.00 2.13 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22

3.29 0.18 0.00 2.31 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

3.42 0.19 0.00 2.41 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

3.04 0.17 0.00 2.11 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21

3.26 0.18 0.00 2.28 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

6,278 5,700 0 5,848 7,953 0 0 0 0 6,702

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

191.1 9.9 0.0 123.3 43.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Million Acres) 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3.41 0.19 0.00 2.40 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

3.41 0.18 0.00 2.41 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

3.40 0.18 0.00 2.41 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

3.39 0.18 0.00 2.41 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

3.38 0.18 0.00 2.40 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23

3.36 0.18 0.00 2.40 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23

3.35 0.17 0.00 2.39 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22

3.32 0.17 0.00 2.38 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22

3.38 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25

3.37 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

3.37 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

3.37 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24

3.35 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23

3.34 0.17 0.00 2.37 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23

3.33 0.17 0.00 2.37 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23

3.31 0.17 0.00 2.36 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22

3.28 0.17 0.00 2.35 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22

6,044 5,374 0 5,628 7,975 0 0 0 0 5,944

6,049 5,395 0 5,643 8,007 0 0 0 0 5,932

6,095 5,419 0 5,694 8,047 0 0 0 0 5,941

(Pounds per Acre) 6,136 6,178 6,221 5,443 5,466 5,489 0 0 0 5,741 5,787 5,836 8,093 8,129 8,173 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,948 5,956 5,965

6,264 5,512 0 5,884 8,216 0 0 0 0 5,975

6,306 5,534 0 5,931 8,260 0 0 0 0 5,984

6,348 5,556 0 5,978 8,298 0 0 0 0 5,994

6,394 5,578 0 6,029 8,340 0 0 0 0 6,004

196.9 9.5 0.0 128.4 45.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0

204.4 9.9 0.0 134.3 45.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7

205.4 9.8 0.0 135.3 45.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.4

(Million Hundredweight) 206.6 208.0 208.6 9.8 9.8 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 136.6 137.8 138.7 45.9 46.3 46.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 14.2 14.0

209.2 9.6 0.0 139.6 46.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8

209.7 9.5 0.0 140.4 46.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6

210.1 9.4 0.0 141.1 46.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3

210.0 9.2 0.0 141.5 46.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 119

U.S. Upland Cotton n Production 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

1.02 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93

1.06 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.96

1.09 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.99

1.12 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.02

Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

15.37 0.40 0.04 2.97 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.13 6.77

15.60 0.41 0.04 3.11 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.21 6.86

15.15 0.39 0.04 3.01 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.13 6.66

15.06 0.39 0.04 3.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.13 6.57

15.05 0.39 0.04 3.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.14 6.55

Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

12.93 0.39 0.04 2.93 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.87 4.66

14.00 0.40 0.04 3.06 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.98 5.55

13.58 0.37 0.04 2.97 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.90 5.38

13.49 0.37 0.04 2.95 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.90 5.30

13.49 0.37 0.04 2.95 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.91 5.29

Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

625 668 298 671 1,356 0 0 0 616 437

640 682 420 757 1,249 0 0 0 633 473

644 687 427 762 1,255 0 0 0 640 477

Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains

16.82 0.54 0.02 4.09 2.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.97 4.24

18.67 0.56 0.03 4.83 2.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 5.48

18.23 0.54 0.03 4.70 2.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.20 5.34

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04

1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04

1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04

1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04

1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04

15.06 0.39 0.04 3.00 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.15 6.54

15.07 0.39 0.04 2.99 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.16 6.54

15.06 0.39 0.04 2.99 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.16 6.53

15.06 0.39 0.04 2.99 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 6.52

15.06 0.39 0.04 2.99 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 6.51

15.04 0.39 0.04 2.98 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.18 6.49

13.50 0.38 0.04 2.95 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.92 5.28

13.51 0.38 0.04 2.95 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.93 5.27

13.51 0.38 0.04 2.95 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.94 5.27

13.51 0.38 0.04 2.95 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.94 5.26

13.51 0.38 0.04 2.94 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.95 5.25

13.49 0.37 0.04 2.94 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.95 5.24

649 693 434 765 1,259 0 0 0 645 480

(Pounds per Acre) 654 658 662 698 703 708 440 447 453 769 772 775 1,263 1,266 1,270 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 651 657 662 482 485 487

665 712 459 778 1,274 0 0 0 667 490

669 717 464 781 1,278 0 0 0 672 492

673 721 470 784 1,281 0 0 0 678 494

676 725 475 787 1,285 0 0 0 683 496

18.26 0.54 0.03 4.71 2.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 5.30

(Million Bales) 18.37 18.50 18.62 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.03 0.03 0.03 4.72 4.74 4.76 2.45 2.48 2.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5.36 5.42 5.31 5.34 5.36

18.72 0.56 0.03 4.78 2.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.47 5.37

18.83 0.56 0.03 4.79 2.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.52 5.39

18.93 0.56 0.04 4.81 2.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.57 5.41

19.01 0.57 0.04 4.82 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.62 5.41

(Million Acres) 1.14 1.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 1.04 1.04

120 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Food Prices and Expenditures The CPI for food is expected to increase by 2.5 percent in 2001. All food categories show increases in 2001, with fruit and vegetable prices increasing the most. The CPI for food is expected to increase at about 2 percent per year over the baseline. This growth rate remains below the overall CPI growth rate for the period. Fruit and vegetable prices show the greatest increases over the period, consistent with the previous decade. CPI categories increase every year for all foods, with the exception of dairy in 2002. The price adjustments associated with the end of the price support program cause the CPI for dairy products to fall from the 2001 level. Consumer expenditures for food are expected to increase by 3-3.5 percent per year over the baseline, leading to very modest increases in real food expenditures. Over 40 percent of food expenditure is associated with purchase of food away from home.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 121

Consumer Price Ind dexes for Food 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

168.0

172.1

175.0

179.2

(1982-84=100) 182.9 186.1 189.5

193.5

197.5

201.5

205.9

Food at Home Cereal and Bakery Meat Dairy Fruit and Vegetables Other Food At Home Sugar and Sweets Fats and Oils Other Prepared Items Non-alc. Beverages

167.8 188.2 154.3 160.7 205.5 155.8 154.0 147.4 172.3 137.7

171.8 192.6 157.8 163.2 212.2 158.7 156.4 149.2 176.7 139.1

174.5 195.9 160.6 161.8 217.6 161.0 158.4 150.4 179.9 140.7

178.5 198.5 165.1 167.2 222.6 164.0 162.0 152.8 183.5 142.6

182.1 202.9 168.0 170.3 227.2 166.9 163.9 155.5 187.9 144.2

185.1 207.2 168.8 172.9 232.2 170.0 166.4 157.7 192.6 145.8

188.3 211.8 170.2 175.7 237.8 172.9 168.5 159.6 196.8 147.4

192.1 217.0 173.1 178.5 243.7 175.5 170.7 161.7 200.4 149.0

196.4 222.3 177.1 181.1 250.1 178.4 173.4 164.0 204.3 150.8

200.5 227.9 179.8 183.8 256.8 181.5 176.5 166.5 208.7 152.6

205.1 233.9 183.3 186.9 264.2 185.1 180.1 169.1 213.6 154.6

Food Away From Home

169.0

173.3

176.6

181.0

184.9

188.4

192.1

196.3

200.1

203.8

207.9

2005

FOOD

2005

Total Consumer Exp xpenditures for Food 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

569.4

589.0

606.7

628.2

(Billion Dollars) 649.0 668.5 689.1

711.7

735.0

758.1

783.1

Food at Home Cereal and Bakery Meat Dairy Fruit and Vegetables Other Food At Home Sugar and Sweets Fats and Oils Other Prepared Items Non-alc. Beverages

330.3 51.0 86.3 35.8 56.5 100.7 12.4 9.3 47.2 27.3

341.6 52.7 89.2 36.9 58.3 104.4 13.0 9.8 48.6 28.3

351.7 54.5 91.8 37.1 60.4 107.8 13.3 10.1 49.7 29.8

364.6 56.1 95.5 38.7 62.4 112.0 13.9 10.3 51.1 31.5

376.4 58.2 98.5 39.7 64.3 115.7 14.2 10.6 52.4 33.1

387.1 60.2 100.2 40.8 66.3 119.5 14.7 10.9 53.6 34.6

398.8 62.4 102.5 42.0 68.6 123.3 15.1 11.1 54.9 36.1

411.8 64.7 105.6 43.2 70.9 127.3 15.5 11.4 56.3 37.7

425.8 67.1 109.2 44.4 73.4 131.6 16.0 11.7 57.8 39.3

439.6 69.7 112.0 45.7 76.1 136.1 16.5 12.0 59.4 41.0

454.7 72.3 115.4 47.1 79.0 140.9 17.1 12.4 61.0 42.7

Food Away From Home

239.1

247.4

255.0

263.6

272.6

281.3

290.4

299.9

309.2

318.6

328.4

FOOD

122 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Government Costs The emergency spending packages of the past three years, together with increased loan deficiency payments (LDPs), have pushed government outlays significantly higher. For FY 2000, net expenditures reached $32.3 billion. Outlays are projected to decline to $18.3 billion in FY 2001. Longer term, outlays decline to approximately $8 billion, with the bulk of those costs associated with FAIR Act contract payments and CRP rental payments. Feed-grain program costs rose to $11.6 billion in FY 2000, with the bulk of the increase due to the additional payments of the 1999 and 2000 spending packages. With no assumption of additional aid packages and lower LDPs, program outlays fall to $4.5 billion in FY 2001. Costs average $2.1 billion in the latter half of the baseline. Outlays for wheat set a record of $5.4 billion in FY 2000, surpassing the previous record of $3.4 billion. Direct payments under the FAIR Act and the emergency spending package accounted for $4.2 billion of the total. For FY 2001, outlays decline to $1.5 billion and average $1.1 billion in the longer term. Increased LDPs and marketing loan gains due to sagging soybean prices led to additional outlays for FY 2000. Costs for FY 2000 were $2.9 billion, with a further increase projected for FY 2001. With soybean prices remaining low, the costs of the soybean program are expected to exceed $2 billion through FY 2005. Cotton program costs grew to $4 billion in FY 2000 as low world prices contributed to higher LDPs and marketing loan gains. In addition, the reinstatement of the Step 2 program contributed $446 million to the costs of the program in 2000. Outlays are projected to decline significantly in FY 2001 as stronger world prices limit marketing loan outlays. Longer term, outlays for cotton range between $600 million and $800 million. As rice prices have weakened over the past two years, the costs of the rice program have increased. For FY 2000, costs totaled $1.9 billion, doubling the previous record of $950 million. Continued weakness in world prices is projected to lead to increased LDPs throughout the baseline. By the end of the projection period, rice outlays decline to $600 million. An increase in product purchases was the primary driver behind dairy outlays reaching $684 million in FY 2000. For FY 2001, supplemental payments included in the most recent appropriations legislation are expected to increase dairy costs to $1.1 billion. Longer term, dairy costs average $100 million, with most of those costs associated with the Export Incentive Program. Outlays associated with the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) averaged $1.5 billion in FY 1999 and 2000. As acreage enrolled in the CRP is assumed to expand to 36.2 million acres, outlays grow to $1.8 billion by FY 2005.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 123

CCC Net Expenditu ures, by Program 2000

2001

2002

2003

Feed Grains Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Wheat Soybeans Cotton Rice Sugar Dairy Export Programs Net Interest Disaster Payments Conservation Reserve Other Conservation Prog. Other Net Costs

11,646 10,203 983 399 61 5,365 2,864 4,015 1,894 465 684 88 736 1,490 1,511 263 1,244

4,545 4,105 256 139 45 1,451 2,942 1,150 839 -82 1,068 87 519 2,701 1,622 367 1,047

2,557 2,166 231 128 32 1,166 3,085 805 884 -32 112 81 427 160 1,680 350 307

(Million U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) 2,298 2,164 2,142 2,120 1,933 1,821 1,818 1,815 217 204 199 199 132 130 117 100 16 9 7 6 1,085 1,062 1,065 1,063 3,019 2,632 2,040 1,518 742 729 682 639 841 766 755 713 110 219 295 374 98 99 99 100 81 81 81 81 480 514 542 563 150 150 150 150 1,677 1,741 1,783 1,793 250 250 250 250 344 305 325 249

Net CCC Outlays

32,265

18,257

11,583

11,175

2004

10,712

2005

10,209

2006

9,612

2007

2008

2009

2010

2,107 1,815 199 88 6 1,063 1,053 621 683 297 100 81 559 150 1,793 250 208

2,108 1,819 199 83 6 1,066 527 629 626 278 100 81 545 150 1,793 250 158

2,110 1,821 199 83 6 1,066 114 637 609 280 100 81 532 150 1,793 250 135

2,105 1,817 199 83 6 1,063 24 643 572 289 99 81 522 150 1,793 250 132

8,965

8,310

7,856

7,724

124 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings Total receipts from farm marketings for 2001 are projected at $201 billion, an increase of $5 billion from the 2000 level. The majority of the increase is fueled by increased crop production and a modest rise in grain prices. Little improvement is expected for 2002, as gains in several commodities are offset by lower hog and dairy receipts. As prices recover and production expands, total receipts are projected to grow to $235 billion by the end of the baseline. Higher prices are projected to increase feedgrain cash receipts to $21.8 billion in 2001, a recovery of $1.3 billion from the 2000 level. Although improved, current levels are still well below the totals observed in the mid1990s. As production and prices increase, receipts steadily increase throughout the baseline, growing to $29 billion by 2010. For 2000, total foodgrain receipts came in at $7 billion as wheat and rice prices continue to remain weak. Recovery begins in 2001 as prices start to strengthen. By 2010, foodgrain receipts are projected to grow to $10.1 billion. However, this is still below the record level of $10.8 billion in 1996. Oilseed cash receipts are expected to rise to $15.5 billion in 2001, as increased production is expected to more than offset lower prices. Beginning in 2002, recovery in soybeans prices, coupled with increased production, pushes receipts higher. Receipts reach $20.7 billion in 2010. Larger production and a recovery in prices pushed cotton receipts up to $5.4 billion in 2000. Receipts are projected to recover further in 2001 due to increased production. Longer term, receipts top $6.5 billion. Continued recovery in cattle prices led to cash receipts of $40.2 billion in 2000, representing a new record. With even stronger prices expected through 2003, cash receipts for cattle and calves are projected to peak at $40.9 billion. As the cattle cycle turns, receipts generally decline thereafter, reaching a low of $37 billion in 2008. Cash receipts for hogs staged a significant recovery in 2000 as prices showed a dramatic increase from the 1999 level. Lower prices over the next two years are expected to lead to lower receipts. After bottoming out at $9.4 billion in 2002, receipts range between $10.6 and $12.2 billion thereafter. Lower milk prices more than offset higher production, causing 2000 dairy receipts to fall by $2.5 billion from the 1999 level of $23.2 billion. Another decline is projected for 2002 with the discontinuation of the dairy price support program. Recovery begins in 2003, with dairy receipts increasing to $24.8 billion by 2010. The combination of lower prices and higher production kept total poultry receipts relatively stable at $23 billion for 2000. As broiler prices recover, receipts increase beginning in 2001. For the 2001-2009 period, poultry receipts grow at an annual average rate of 2.6 percent.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 125

U.S. Cash Receipts s from Farming 2000

2001

2002

2003

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

196.02

201.09

201.89

208.03

(Billion U.S. Dollars) 212.09 214.49 217.30

221.80

226.50

230.48

235.05

96.57

100.26

102.76

105.34

108.21

111.29

114.42

117.68

120.81

123.72

126.82

Feed Grains Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Hay

20.47 15.48 0.84 0.55 0.07 3.52

21.78 16.61 0.90 0.61 0.07 3.58

22.34 17.02 0.99 0.64 0.07 3.61

22.95 17.58 1.00 0.66 0.07 3.63

23.58 18.14 1.02 0.67 0.07 3.67

24.38 18.84 1.05 0.68 0.07 3.73

25.30 19.65 1.09 0.69 0.07 3.80

26.31 20.52 1.12 0.71 0.07 3.88

27.23 21.34 1.14 0.72 0.07 3.96

28.08 22.09 1.17 0.74 0.07 4.01

29.04 22.95 1.20 0.76 0.07 4.05

Food Grains Wheat Rice Rye

7.01 5.63 1.37 0.02

7.27 5.98 1.27 0.02

7.67 6.24 1.41 0.02

8.03 6.53 1.49 0.02

8.33 6.80 1.51 0.02

8.61 7.05 1.54 0.02

8.91 7.32 1.57 0.02

9.25 7.63 1.60 0.02

9.51 7.87 1.62 0.02

9.78 8.12 1.65 0.02

10.11 8.41 1.68 0.02

14.98 5.35 2.02 46.74

15.46 5.74 2.01 48.00

15.69 5.79 2.03 49.23

16.08 5.81 2.03 50.44

16.76 5.90 2.02 51.62

17.49 6.00 2.03 52.79

18.14 6.11 2.03 53.93

18.80 6.22 2.04 55.06

19.51 6.34 2.04 56.17

20.08 6.47 2.05 57.26

20.68 6.60 2.05 58.34

99.45

100.83

99.13

102.69

103.88

103.20

102.88

104.12

105.69

106.76

108.23

Red Meats Cattle, Calves Hogs Sheep, Lambs

51.77 40.16 11.13 0.47

51.65 40.66 10.53 0.46

50.55 40.68 9.41 0.46

52.21 40.92 10.83 0.46

52.22 40.00 11.76 0.46

50.57 38.78 11.34 0.46

49.13 38.01 10.66 0.46

49.24 37.41 11.37 0.46

49.61 36.97 12.18 0.46

49.37 37.12 11.79 0.46

49.38 37.58 11.34 0.46

Dairy Products

20.70

21.27

20.04

21.29

21.84

22.28

22.77

23.27

23.74

24.24

24.83

Poultry, Eggs Broilers Turkeys Chicken Eggs Other Poultry

23.27 15.15 2.95 4.54 0.62

24.19 15.82 2.96 4.72 0.69

24.82 16.32 2.93 4.86 0.71

25.44 16.78 2.98 4.95 0.73

26.03 17.27 3.05 4.96 0.75

26.54 17.66 3.08 5.02 0.77

27.16 18.14 3.12 5.10 0.79

27.77 18.67 3.18 5.12 0.81

28.48 19.20 3.23 5.22 0.83

29.24 19.80 3.30 5.29 0.86

30.07 20.48 3.35 5.36 0.89

3.72

3.73

3.73

3.75

3.78

3.80

3.82

3.84

3.87

3.90

3.94

22.13

13.91

9.59

8.91

8.37

7.84

7.35

6.80

6.38

6.26

6.22

218.14

215.00

211.48

216.94

220.47

222.33

224.65

228.60

232.88

236.74

241.27

Farm Marketings and CCC Loans Crops

Oilseeds Cotton Sugar Other Crops * Livestock and Products

Other Livestock † Government Payments Total Cash Receipts

* Includes tobacco, vegetables and me melons, fruits and tree nuts, and other crops. † Includes horses, mules, and aquacu culture.

2004

2005

126 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Farm Production Expenses Increased costs for purchased livestock push expenses for farm-origin inputs higher in 2000. Expenses are expected to increase to $48 billion in 2001 due primarily to higher feed costs. Expenses are projected to reach $55.1 billion in 2010, with the vast majority of the increase again associated with feed costs. In fact, expenses for purchased livestock are expected to decline steadily after 2003 as feeder cattle prices fall. With higher fuel prices, expenses for manufactured inputs increased by $2.9 billion, or 10 percent, in 2000. Higher natural gas prices are expected to push fertilizer costs higher in 2001. After reaching $32.7 billion in 2001, expenses for manufactured inputs decline through 2003, as input prices are projected to fall. Increased interest rates pushed total interest expenses higher in 2000, reaching $14.2 billion. After small declines in 2001 and 2002, modest growth is projected over the baseline period, with total interest expenses reaching $15.3 billion in 2010. The increased expenses are driven by increased production of crop and livestock commodities, as well as modest increases in interest rates. Growth in labor and miscellaneous expenses contributed the majority of the $1.8 billion increase in other operating expenses for 2000. Over the baseline period, other operating expenses grow from $68.9 billion in 2001 to $79.4 billion by 2010. Miscellaneous expenses and labor costs are the primary growth drivers over the baseline period, with annual growth rates of 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Other overhead expenses are projected to fall to $40.2 billion in 2001, a drop of $300 million from the previous year. The decline is due to lower expenses for rent to non-operator landlords. Rent is projected to decline due to the drop in direct government payments. Longer term, overhead expenses are projected to reach $43.2 billion, with rent expenses contributing most of the growth. Total production expenses are projected to grow to $203.9 billion in 2001. This represents a $4.1 billion increase from the 2000 level and a $14 billion increase from the peak observed in 1997. Increased production levels and modest growth in input prices lead to continued growth in total production expenses. After 2001, production expenses grow at an annual rate of 1.3 percent.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 127

U.S. Farm Productio on Expenses 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Farm-Origin Inputs Feed Purchased Livestock Seed

47.11 24.67 15.24 7.19

47.97 25.40 15.35 7.22

48.79 26.17 15.36 7.26

49.58 26.79 15.46 7.32

(Billion U.S. Dollars) 50.19 50.49 51.20 27.67 28.67 29.75 15.10 14.29 13.79 7.43 7.54 7.66

52.04 30.75 13.50 7.80

52.80 31.64 13.23 7.94

53.76 32.45 13.24 8.08

55.06 33.29 13.53 8.24

Manufactured Inputs Fertilizer, Lime Petroleum Fuel, Oils Electricity Pesticides

30.21 10.45 8.08 3.04 8.64

32.73 12.71 8.05 3.16 8.81

31.42 11.96 7.62 3.13 8.70

31.18 11.60 7.56 3.15 8.86

31.42 11.57 7.53 3.19 9.12

31.86 11.67 7.55 3.26 9.38

32.50 11.81 7.67 3.34 9.67

33.20 12.04 7.79 3.39 9.97

33.90 12.26 7.91 3.45 10.27

34.67 12.49 8.07 3.51 10.61

35.53 12.75 8.24 3.57 10.97

Interest Charges Short-Term Interest Real Estate Interest

14.22 7.05 7.17

14.15 7.03 7.12

14.09 7.00 7.09

14.22 7.06 7.15

14.41 7.16 7.25

14.58 7.25 7.34

14.76 7.33 7.43

14.92 7.41 7.51

15.05 7.47 7.57

15.14 7.52 7.62

15.25 7.57 7.68

Other Operating Exp. Repair, Operation of Capital Items Contract, Hired Labor Machine Hire Custom Work Marketing, Storage, and Transportation Miscellaneous

67.69

68.85

69.45

70.38

71.59

72.80

74.10

75.36

76.63

77.96

79.36

10.60 20.74

10.67 21.32

10.72 21.72

10.80 22.15

10.93 22.65

11.05 23.18

11.19 23.73

11.31 24.26

11.43 24.80

11.55 25.34

11.68 25.89

5.53

5.58

5.55

5.55

5.58

5.61

5.65

5.69

5.74

5.79

5.85

7.58 23.24

7.84 23.45

7.77 23.69

7.87 24.01

8.01 24.43

8.08 24.88

8.17 25.36

8.25 25.84

8.36 26.31

8.48 26.81

8.62 27.33

Other Overhead Exp. Capital Consumption Property Taxes Rent to Nonoperators

40.48 19.81 7.14 13.53

40.16 19.85 7.23 13.08

40.20 20.09 7.32 12.80

40.46 20.18 7.37 12.91

40.74 20.26 7.43 13.06

41.05 20.34 7.51 13.21

41.41 20.44 7.59 13.38

41.80 20.57 7.67 13.56

42.21 20.71 7.78 13.72

42.68 20.85 7.90 13.92

43.19 21.03 8.02 14.15

Production Expenses

199.71

203.85

203.95

205.82

208.36

210.79

213.97

217.32

220.60

224.21

228.40

Noncash Expenses Labor Perquisites Net Cap Consumption

18.91 0.60 18.31

18.95 0.60 18.35

19.19 0.60 18.59

19.28 0.60 18.68

19.36 0.60 18.76

19.44 0.60 18.84

19.54 0.60 18.94

19.67 0.60 19.07

19.81 0.60 19.21

19.95 0.60 19.35

20.13 0.60 19.53

Op Dwelling Expenses

2.81

2.85

2.88

2.91

2.94

2.97

3.00

3.03

3.06

3.09

3.12

177.98

182.06

181.88

183.62

186.06

188.39

191.43

194.62

197.74

201.16

205.15

Cash Expenses

2005

128 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Net Farm Income Total farm receipts are projected to increase to $217.6 billion in 2001, driven primarily by increased crop receipts. For 2002, receipts are projected to increase by only $1 billion, as higher crop receipts are partially offset by lower livestock receipts. With the majority of the growth occurring in crops, total farm receipts are projected to reach $254 billion by 2010. After reaching a record level of $22.1 billion in 2000, direct government payments are projected to fall to $13.9 billion in 2001, with lower LDPs and the assumption of no additional assistance packages. As crop prices recover and LDPs decline, direct payments decline to $6.2 billion by 2010, reflecting continued AMTA and CRP payments. Non-money income comprises the value of home consumption of farm products and the imputed rental value of farm dwellings. With the average value of land and buildings projected to show a modest increase, non-money income is projected to grow from $11.9 billion in 2001 to $13.1 billion in 2010. The value of inventory change is projected at $0.04 billion in 2001. The increase from the 2000 level is due to a rise in the value of livestock inventories. With trend yields and stable crops prices, the value of inventory change remains at relatively low levels throughout the baseline. Net cash income is projected to decline to $49.5 billion in 2001 due to lower government payments and higher production expenses. Cash income falls further in 2002, as government payments continue to decline and pork and milk prices weaken. Recovery begins in 2003. However, at no time in the baseline does net cash income return to the 2000 level of $56.4 billion. Accounting for the value of inventory change, non-money income, and total expenses, net farm income is projected to decline $39.6 billion in 2001, a $5.8 billion decline from the 2000 level. As with net cash income, net farm income falls further in 2002. At $36.3 billion, 2002 net farm income would be the lowest since 1986. Longer term, net farm income reaches $44 billion by 2010. After accounting for inflation, real net farm income (in 1997 dollars) falls to $37.5 billion in 2001, a decline of $6.2 billion from the previous year. Real farm income falls to $33.9 billion in 2002 before showing modest recovery through 2004. The longer-term trend is for declining real income.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 129

U.S. Farm Income Statistics S 2000

2001

2002

2003

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

212.29 96.57 99.45 16.27

217.60 100.26 100.83 16.51

218.63 102.76 99.13 16.74

225.02 105.34 102.69 16.99

(Billion U.S. Dollars) 229.35 232.02 235.11 108.21 111.29 114.42 103.88 103.20 102.88 17.26 17.53 17.81

239.89 117.68 104.12 18.09

244.87 120.81 105.69 18.37

249.12 123.72 106.76 18.65

253.98 126.82 108.23 18.93

22.13

13.91

9.59

8.91

8.37

7.84

7.35

6.80

6.38

6.26

6.22

234.41

231.51

228.22

233.93

237.73

239.86

242.45

246.69

251.25

255.39

260.20

4. Nonmoney Income

11.73

11.91

11.98

12.15

12.36

12.37

12.41

12.58

12.77

12.95

13.15

5. Value of Inventory Change

-1.04

0.04

0.06

0.23

0.48

0.50

0.11

-0.24

-0.36

-0.41

-0.47

6. Gross Farm Income (3 + 4 + 5)

245.11

243.46

240.26

246.32

250.56

252.72

254.98

259.02

263.66

267.92

272.88

7. Cash Expenses †

177.98

182.06

181.88

183.62

186.06

188.39

191.43

194.62

197.74

201.16

205.15

8. Total Expenses

199.71

203.85

203.95

205.82

208.36

210.79

213.97

217.32

220.60

224.21

228.40

9. Net Cash Income (3 - 7)

56.44

49.46

46.34

50.31

51.67

51.47

51.02

52.07

53.51

54.22

55.05

10. Realized Net Farm Income (3 + 4 - 8)

46.44

39.57

36.25

40.27

41.73

41.44

40.89

41.94

43.41

44.13

44.95

11. Net Farm Income (6 - 8) Deflated (1997 $) ‡

45.40

39.61

36.31

40.50

42.21

41.93

41.00

41.70

43.06

43.72

44.48

43.71

37.51

33.85

37.17

38.13

37.36

35.90

35.81

36.24

36.03

35.88

1. Farm Receipts Crops Livestock Farm-Related * 2. Government Payments 3. Gross Cash Income (1 + 2)

2004

2005

w * Income from machine hire, custom work, sales of forest products, and other miscellaneous cash sources. † Excludes capital consumption, perq quisites to hired labor, and farm household expenses. ‡ Deflated by the GNP price deflator,, 1997=1.

130 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Crop Insurance Net acres insured rose to 205 million acres in 2000, due in part to the provisions of the disaster assistance packages in the last two years. The increase in participation continues through the next decade due to the passage of the Agricultural Risk Protection Act (ARPA) of 2000. In 2001, net acres insured rise to 216 million acres and steadily climb to more than 219 million acres by 2010. The increase in participation due to ARPA is driven mainly by the increased premium subsidies provided by the act. Revenue insurance products capture most of the participation increase. Total premiums rose to $2.5 billion in 2000. This increase arises from growth in overall participation and, particularly, in buy-up participation. In 2001, total premium levels rise again to $2.95 billion due to increases in buy-up participation and low crop prices. Total premiums trend upward, reaching $3.4 billion in 2010. Premium subsidies exceed $1.3 billion in 2000. The new premium subsidy structure takes effect in the 2001 crop year. With this new structure, premium subsidies rise to $1.7 billion in 2001 and continue to grow throughout the rest of the projection period. Total indemnities (insurance payments) follow a pattern similar to total premiums. Loss ratios of one indicate that “actuarially fair” premiums are being charged for the insurance products. These projections show that, overall, federal crop insurance will meet the loss ratio targets set by Congress. Total obligations represent the federal government’s financial responsibility for crop insurance. They are the costs for crop insurance before taking any crop insurance revenues into account. Total obligations are equal to the sum of indemnities, delivery expenses, administrative and operating expenses, agent commissions, and other expenses. Over the projection period, total obligations exceed $2.9 billion each year. By 2010, the federal government’s total financial obligation for crop insurance reaches $4 billion. Net outlays take underwriting costs and crop insurance revenues into account. They are equal to the sum of total obligations and underwriting costs minus producer-paid premiums. Net outlays neared $2.2 billion in 2000. Most of this increase can be attributed to the temporary premium subsidies from the disaster assistance packages. The effect of the permanent change in premium subsidies from ARPA is not fully seen until 2002. After 2002, net outlays for crop insurance increase to nearly $3.2 billion in 2010. Budget authority is the amount the law allows the federal government to spend for the program. For crop insurance, it represents net outlays on a crop-year basis. Budget authority for 1999 and 2000 is nearly $2 billion a year. In 2001, this rises to $2.6 billion. By 2010, budget authority for crop insurance rises to $3.2 billion.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 131

Crop Insurance 2000

2001

2002

2003

267.09 205.28

265.99 215.64

267.04 216.48

266.22 216.02

76.86

81.07

81.06

81.14

Total Premiums Producer-Paid Premiums Premium Subsidies Total Indemnities

2.52 1.18 1.34 2.14

2.95 1.25 1.70 2.95

2.96 1.23 1.73 2.96

Loss Ratio

0.85

1.00

Total Obligations Net Outlays Budget Authority

2.91 2.20 1.84

2.93 2.06 2.64

Eligible Acres Net Acres Insured Crop Insurance Participation Rate

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Million Acres) 266.82 267.27 267.77 216.55 217.02 217.51

268.31 218.02

268.82 218.50

269.19 218.91

269.62 219.37

81.26

81.28

81.32

81.36

(Billion U.S. Dollars, Crop Year) 3.02 3.05 3.09 3.13 1.24 1.22 1.24 1.20 1.79 1.84 1.85 1.94 3.02 3.05 3.09 3.13

3.19 1.21 1.98 3.19

3.25 1.23 2.02 3.25

3.31 1.25 2.06 3.31

3.37 1.26 2.11 3.37

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

3.58 2.65 2.67

(Billion U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) 3.62 3.68 3.72 3.76 2.70 2.77 2.82 2.87 2.76 2.81 2.84 2.94

3.82 2.96 3.00

3.89 3.02 3.07

3.97 3.09 3.13

4.04 3.15 3.19

81.16

1.00

2005

(Percent) 81.20

1.00

81.23

1.00

132 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Agricultural Exports Total U.S. agricultural exports increased 10.7 percent by volume in 1999/00, rising for the first time since exports peaked in 1995/96. Despite the increase in volume, the value of U.S. exports declined 8.5 percent as a result of the lowest agricultural prices in more than a decade. A gradual recovery in agricultural prices drives the value of agricultural exports up by 3.6 percent in 2000/01, and both export volume and value continue to rise 2 to 4 percent annually for the next decade. The value of U.S. exports increases more than 46 percent by 2010. A little more than half of the growth in value is explained by increases in the total volume of exports; the remainder is generated by strengthening prices. U.S. exports rise 41.3 mmt over the baseline, with grains and feeds accounting for 63.8 percent and oilseeds and oilseed products comprising 18.8 percent of the total growth. An 18.9 mmt rise in grain and feed exports, predominately corn exports, accounts for 27 percent of the total increase in export value. Indirect exports of corn—measured by the feed-grain equivalent of beef, pork, and poultry exports—exceed 7 mmt by 2010, an increase of 43 percent over 1999/00 levels. Together, direct and indirect exports of corn will increase by more than 25 mmt. Growth in high-value agricultural exports accounts for 63 percent of the $22.9 billion increase in the value of U.S. agricultural exports over the baseline. Just over 40 percent of the growth in high-value exports is accounted for by increases in horticulture and other exports. The value of animal and animal product exports rises nearly 70 percent over the baseline, accounting for 30 percent of the total growth in the value of U.S. exports. Nearly 60 percent of the increase in animal product exports will come from beef and pork exports.

Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 133

Quantity of U.S. Agr gricultural Exports

Animals and Animal Products Grains and Feeds Wheat (Unmilled and Flour) Rice (Paddy Milled) Feed Grains and Products Other Grains and Feeds Oilseeds and Products Cotton (excl. Linters) Other Products Total

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

6,685

6,840

7,013

(Thousand Metric Tons, Fiscal Year) 7,036 7,151 7,332 7,541 7,734

7,921

8,071

8,174

104,009 106,916 107,183 108,388 110,177 113,490 116,937 120,466 124,273 127,793 130,941 28,712 28,701 27,291 27,302 27,830 28,358 28,850 29,361 29,863 30,262 30,723 3,299 3,060 3,143 3,270 3,280 3,229 3,206 3,155 3,111 3,041 2,989 57,195 59,984 61,116 62,007 63,005 65,513 68,183 70,842 73,081 75,894 78,334 14,803 15,171 15,633 15,810 16,062 16,390 16,698 17,108 18,218 18,596 18,895 36,055 1,474 9,167

36,000 1,595 9,517

38,849 1,883 9,920

40,264 1,917 10,288

40,868 1,937 10,603

41,235 1,969 10,958

41,230 2,004 11,283

41,198 2,037 11,611

41,219 2,069 11,927

41,270 2,101 12,255

41,371 2,131 12,592

157,390 160,867 164,849 167,892 170,736 174,984 178,996 183,046 187,408 191,490 195,209

Value of U.S. Agricu ultural Exports 00/01

01/02

02/03

Bulk Commodities * High-value Products †

18,858 32,078

19,415 33,852

Animals and Animal Products Meat and Meat Products Poultry and Poultry Products Dairy Products Hides and Skins Other Animal Products

11,662 5,480 2,252 996 1,479 1,455

Grains and Feeds Wheat (Unmilled and Flour) Rice (Paddy Milled) Coarse Grains Corn Other Feed Grains Feeds and Fodders

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

20,453 35,437

(Million U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) 21,232 22,045 22,953 23,837 24,733 36,318 37,663 38,835 39,918 41,114

25,711 42,461

26,576 43,625

27,471 44,612

12,387 6,069 2,283 887 1,641 1,507

12,785 6,226 2,335 898 1,722 1,604

13,059 6,343 2,362 875 1,833 1,647

13,806 6,907 2,377 873 1,925 1,723

14,320 7,246 2,421 874 2,014 1,766

14,780 7,532 2,449 879 2,110 1,810

15,341 7,901 2,477 883 2,221 1,859

16,069 8,368 2,525 887 2,366 1,922

16,573 8,587 2,592 892 2,525 1,976

16,923 8,658 2,664 896 2,688 2,016

13,788 3,602 903 5,483 4,603 879 3,800

14,310 3,725 814 5,912 5,068 844 3,859

15,164 3,871 864 6,478 5,617 861 3,951

15,610 3,995 936 6,698 5,800 898 3,981

16,160 4,215 981 6,921 6,000 921 4,044

16,798 4,380 978 7,321 6,369 952 4,120

17,511 4,534 994 7,779 6,773 1,006 4,203

18,275 4,718 997 8,276 7,225 1,051 4,284

19,060 4,913 1,011 8,713 7,636 1,077 4,423

19,745 5,044 1,001 9,198 8,087 1,111 4,502

20,492 5,206 1,004 9,704 8,544 1,160 4,579

8,386 5,070 1,199 278 1,838

8,472 5,105 1,253 266 1,849

8,873 5,289 1,339 348 1,898

9,178 5,622 1,296 324 1,936

9,496 5,885 1,282 355 1,975

9,860 6,154 1,302 383 2,020

10,104 6,327 1,313 414 2,050

10,311 6,458 1,333 445 2,076

10,570 6,652 1,336 475 2,108

10,841 6,831 1,357 512 2,141

11,029 6,979 1,368 518 2,164

Tobacco, unmanufactured Cotton and Linters Horticulture and Other Products

1,229 1,809 13,562

1,355 2,290 14,330

1,382 2,678 15,008

1,378 2,736 15,589

1,386 2,782 16,078

1,396 2,848 16,566

1,404 2,921 17,035

1,411 2,995 17,514

1,416 3,071 17,988

1,420 3,150 18,473

1,425 3,229 18,984

Total

50,936

53,267

55,890

57,550

59,708

61,788

63,755

65,847

68,172

70,201

72,083

Oilseeds and Products Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Other Oilseeds and Products

03/04

04/05

* Bulk Commodities include wheat, ric rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. † High-value is total exports minus bu ulk commodities.

05/06

06/07

WORLD WHEAT

136 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Wheat Since peaking in 1996/97, world wheat area has declined continuously, falling nearly 15 mha. Strengthening world wheat prices reverse this downward trend by 2001/02. World wheat area increases 4.3 mha from 1999/00 to 2002/ 03, driven mainly by growth in the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine. Wheat area rises more slowly after 2003, averaging 0.1 percent annually. World wheat production grows an average of 1.44 percent annually, with a total increase of nearly 90 mmt over the outlook period. The greatest growth for wheat imports occurs in Asian countries. China is expected to account for a quarter of the expansion in world wheat trade. China’s imports rise from 1 mmt in 2000/01 to 5.65 mmt in 2010/11. High-income East Asian countries depend on imported wheat to meet their sharply increasing domestic needs. Imports in this region increase 19.26 percent over the outlook period. Import growth in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa remains slight but steady. Following droughts in two consecutive years, Iran established itself as the Middle East’s largest wheat importer. However, Iranian wheat imports fall nearly 3 mmt in 2001/02 and then slowly but steadily increase over the baseline. Boosted by growing international demand, world wheat prices grow 2.76 percent annually over the baseline, reaching $159 per mt in 2010/11. Increasing demand in developing countries contributes to sustained growth of world wheat trade, which rises nearly 21 percent or 19 mmt during the next decade. India has been a wild card player on international wheat markets for the last decade, alternating as an importer and exporter of wheat depending on domestic production. India’s exports are projected to reach approximately 1 mmt by 2000/01 and then decline steadily, as domestic consumption rises faster than domestic supply. During the second half of the projection period, India is expected to become a net wheat importer, with Indian imports reaching 2.23 mmt by the end of the next decade. Despite appreciation of the euro, the EU wheat price remains below the world price. This allows EU exports to be competitive on world wheat markets without subsidies. During the next decade, EU wheat production rises continuously at an average annual rate of 1.91 percent. The EU is expected to expand its exports by nearly 12 mmt and capture more than 60 percent of the world wheat trade expansion. Though exports rise slowly, Canada remains the second largest wheat exporter until 2007/08. After 2007, the EU overtakes Canada and moves into second place behind the United States. Australian wheat production grows 28.6 percent over the baseline, the highest rate among major producers. This growth, coupled with a slow increase in domestic consumption, enables Australia to increase its exports more than 3 mmt over the outlook period. Argentina’s exports increase 2.12 mmt over the outlook period, reaching more than 14 mmt by 2010/11. In the context of expanding trade, U.S. wheat exports grow slower than those of other competitors. U.S. exports peak at 29.42 mmt in 2010/11, rising at an average annual rate of less than 0.5 percent from the level of 28.03 mmt in 2000/01. As a result, U.S. market share drops from 31 percent to 27 percent by the end of the outlook period.

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 137

Wheat Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Canada Czech Republic Hungary European Union Ukraine United States Total Net Exports

Net Importers Japan Russia Other Former Soviet Union Other Western Europe Other Eastern Europe Poland Developing China High-Income East Asia India Pakistan Other Asia Brazil Mexico Other Latin America Algeria Egypt Iran Morocco Tunisia Other Africa/Middle East Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports

Wheat Prices U.S. FOB Gulf Canadian Thunder Bay Australian Wheat Board CIF Rotterdam

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11.97 14.95 18.85 0.70 1.40 11.98 -0.10 28.03

11.95 15.93 18.89 0.83 1.65 13.75 0.96 25.80

12.35 16.23 18.84 0.84 1.72 14.40 1.50 25.55

12.62 16.36 19.02 0.81 1.75 15.73 1.53 26.07

(Million Metric Tons) 12.89 13.12 13.32 16.46 16.63 16.87 19.06 19.16 19.24 0.77 0.73 0.67 1.79 1.83 1.85 16.60 17.59 18.69 1.53 1.48 1.43 26.60 27.09 27.57

13.52 17.14 19.35 0.60 1.88 19.75 1.43 28.13

13.73 17.46 19.50 0.53 1.91 21.36 1.42 28.50

13.91 17.81 19.73 0.45 1.94 22.91 1.40 28.94

14.09 18.32 20.03 0.37 1.96 23.82 1.44 29.42

90.56

89.75

91.44

93.88

95.71

97.63

99.65

101.81

104.41

107.09

109.45

5.50 2.00 -1.48 0.41 1.10 0.95 76.34 1.00 5.08 -0.95 -0.35 12.59 7.90 1.90 8.69 5.20 6.20 7.50 2.93 1.10 17.11 0.45 2.97

5.35 2.25 0.23 0.42 1.23 0.78 77.00 2.53 5.15 -0.88 1.65 12.67 7.58 2.00 8.82 5.21 6.29 4.80 2.98 1.15 16.63 0.44 2.50

5.35 1.70 0.10 0.43 1.26 0.81 79.28 2.99 5.24 -0.49 1.82 12.80 7.67 1.99 8.84 5.14 6.32 4.99 3.05 1.20 17.28 0.44 2.50

5.36 1.98 0.05 0.44 1.28 0.83 81.44 3.63 5.31 -0.19 1.95 13.03 7.77 1.99 8.89 5.04 6.39 5.20 3.16 1.25 17.56 0.44 2.50

5.37 2.02 0.14 0.45 1.32 0.82 83.08 3.99 5.40 -0.05 1.96 13.30 7.87 2.01 8.98 5.08 6.45 5.34 3.22 1.31 17.78 0.44 2.50

5.37 1.98 0.23 0.46 1.38 0.79 84.92 4.45 5.50 0.06 2.05 13.57 7.97 2.05 9.11 5.14 6.52 5.45 3.28 1.37 17.96 0.45 2.50

5.38 1.94 0.32 0.47 1.45 0.77 86.82 4.95 5.59 0.24 2.14 13.74 8.08 2.10 9.27 5.21 6.59 5.54 3.36 1.43 18.12 0.45 2.50

5.39 1.83 0.48 0.48 1.50 0.77 88.86 5.19 5.70 0.75 2.24 13.89 8.19 2.17 9.43 5.29 6.68 5.63 3.46 1.50 18.28 0.45 2.50

5.39 1.66 0.66 0.49 1.58 0.77 91.35 5.42 5.81 1.35 2.37 14.31 8.31 2.25 9.63 5.37 6.78 5.73 3.57 1.57 18.42 0.45 2.50

5.40 1.52 0.82 0.50 1.65 0.79 93.91 5.61 5.93 2.00 2.59 14.59 8.43 2.35 9.87 5.46 6.88 5.82 3.71 1.65 18.55 0.46 2.50

5.41 1.46 1.06 0.51 1.72 0.84 95.95 5.65 6.05 2.23 2.84 14.83 8.56 2.47 10.13 5.54 7.00 5.92 3.86 1.72 18.69 0.46 2.50

90.56

89.75

91.44

93.88

95.71

97.63

99.65

101.81

104.41

107.09

109.45

121.17 112.80 95.06 142.84

130.24 122.54 103.35 153.41

131.63 123.33 103.81 155.03

136.84 128.59 108.50 161.11

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 139.89 142.66 146.26 131.65 134.57 138.48 111.24 113.72 117.06 164.67 167.89 172.09

150.15 142.73 120.74 176.62

152.33 145.06 122.78 179.17

155.14 147.98 152.14 182.45

159.05 152.03 152.39 187.01

138 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Wheat Area Harvested, Production, and Consumption Million Metric Tons

Million Hectares 235

800 700

230 600 225 500 220

400 300

215 200 210 100 205

0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Production

2000/01

2002/03

Consumption

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Area Harvested

World Wheat Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent

Dollars per Metric Ton

240

30

200

25

160 20 120 15 80 10

40

5

0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Stock-to-Use Ratio

U.S. FOB Gulf Price

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 139

Wheat Net Exports by Major Competitors Million Metric Tons 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Argentina

Australia

2002/03

2004/05

Canada

EU

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Wheat Net Imports by Major Regions Million Metric Tons 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97 Asia

1998/99

2000/01

Latin America

Africa and Middle East

140 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Asian Wheat Imports Million Metric Tons 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

China

1998/99

2000/01

India

2002/03

2004/05

High-Income East Asia

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Other Asia

High Income East Asia: Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore. Other Asia excluding China and India.

Wheat Trade by Transition Economies Million Metric Tons 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Eastern Europe

2000/01 Ukraine

2002/03 Russia

2004/05 Other FSU

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 141

U.S. Wheat Trade and Market Share Million Metric Tons 45

Percent 45

40

40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5 0

0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

2002/03

U.S. Exports

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Market Share

EU Wheat Production, Consumption, and Net Trade Million Metric Tons 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Production

2000/01

2002/03

Consumption

2004/05 Net Trade

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

142 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Wheat Supply ly and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

215.42

218.18

219.68

2.68

2.73

Production Beginning Stocks Total Supply

578.22 125.73 703.94

Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use

Area Harvested

Yield

Trade *

Stock to Use Ratio

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

219.22

(Million Hectares) 219.45 219.62 219.68

219.83

220.15

221.13

221.23

2.76

2.79

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.82 2.85 2.88

2.91

2.94

2.99

3.01

595.40 107.56 702.96

606.03 101.18 707.21

611.47 100.54 712.01

(Million Metric Tons) 619.38 626.92 633.78 98.09 96.75 96.10 717.47 723.67 729.87

640.61 95.30 735.92

648.01 94.33 742.34

660.38 93.42 753.79

666.88 97.95 764.83

596.38 107.56 703.94

601.78 101.18 702.96

606.68 100.54 707.21

613.92 98.09 712.01

620.72 96.75 717.47

627.57 96.10 723.67

634.57 95.30 729.87

641.59 94.33 735.92

648.92 93.42 742.34

655.85 97.95 753.79

662.78 102.05 764.83

90.56

89.75

91.44

93.88

95.71

97.63

99.65

101.81

104.41

107.09

109.45

18.04

16.81

16.57

15.98

15.59

(Percent) 15.31

15.02

14.70

14.40

14.93

15.40

05/06

* Excludes intraregional trade.

U.S. Wheat Supply and a Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

21.46

21.69

22.23

22.11

(Million Hectares) 22.31 22.43 22.52

22.64

22.79

22.86

22.93

2.82

2.76

2.78

2.81

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.83 2.85 2.88

2.90

2.92

2.95

2.97

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

60.51 25.85 86.36

59.95 22.22 82.17

61.80 20.60 82.41

62.01 20.29 82.30

(Million Metric Tons) 63.13 64.00 64.80 19.75 19.47 19.19 82.88 83.46 83.99

65.66 18.87 84.54

66.63 18.55 85.18

67.39 18.32 85.71

68.11 18.04 86.15

Feed and Residual Seed Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

8.12 2.28 25.71 22.22 58.33

7.16 2.41 25.93 20.60 56.10

7.56 2.41 26.32 20.29 56.58

7.06 2.45 26.70 19.75 55.96

7.00 2.48 27.06 19.47 56.00

7.01 2.50 27.39 19.19 56.10

7.04 2.53 27.70 18.87 56.15

7.02 2.56 28.00 18.55 56.14

7.18 2.59 28.32 18.32 56.40

7.22 2.61 28.63 18.04 56.50

7.20 2.63 28.93 17.69 56.46

28.03

26.07

25.83

26.34

26.88

27.37

27.84

28.40

28.77

29.21

29.70

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 143

Argentine Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

6.25

6.35

6.45

Yield

2.64

2.60

16.50 0.15 16.65

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

6.49

(Million Hectares) 6.54 6.56 6.57

6.58

6.59

6.59

6.59

2.63

2.66

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.70 2.73 2.76

2.80

2.83

2.86

2.90

16.50 0.18 16.68

16.97 0.19 17.16

17.29 0.19 17.48

(Million Metric Tons) 17.62 17.91 18.16 0.20 0.20 0.21 17.82 18.11 18.36

18.40 0.21 18.61

18.66 0.22 18.87

18.89 0.22 19.11

19.11 0.23 19.33

4.50 0.18 4.68

4.54 0.19 4.73

4.62 0.19 4.81

4.67 0.20 4.87

4.73 0.20 4.93

4.78 0.21 4.99

4.83 0.21 5.04

4.87 0.22 5.09

4.92 0.22 5.14

4.97 0.23 5.19

5.01 0.23 5.24

11.97

11.95

12.35

12.62

12.89

13.12

13.32

13.52

13.73

13.91

14.09

05/06

Australian Wheat Supply Su and Utilization

Area Harvested

Yield

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

12.00

11.99

11.99

11.93

(Million Hectares) 11.90 11.91 11.96

12.03

12.11

12.20

12.39

1.63

1.83

1.85

1.87

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.89 1.91 1.94

1.96

1.98

2.00

2.02

19.50 4.07 23.57

21.94 2.98 24.92

22.19 3.26 25.45

22.33 3.41 25.74

(Million Metric Tons) 22.52 22.80 23.15 3.49 3.56 3.65 26.01 26.36 26.80

23.53 3.77 27.30

23.96 3.90 27.86

24.42 4.04 28.46

25.08 4.20 29.28

5.64 2.98 8.62

5.72 3.26 8.99

5.81 3.41 9.22

5.90 3.49 9.39

5.99 3.56 9.55

6.08 3.65 9.73

6.17 3.77 9.93

6.26 3.90 10.16

6.35 4.04 10.40

6.45 4.20 10.65

6.55 4.41 10.96

14.95

15.93

16.23

16.36

16.46

16.63

16.87

17.14

17.46

17.81

18.32

144 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Canadian Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

10.90

10.96

10.98

10.97

(Million Hectares) 10.94 10.90 10.86

10.86

10.88

10.93

10.99

2.46

2.48

2.51

2.53

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.55 2.58 2.60

2.62

2.65

2.67

2.69

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

26.80 7.40 34.20

27.20 7.15 34.34

27.51 7.15 34.67

27.75 7.35 35.10

(Million Metric Tons) 27.92 28.08 28.23 7.48 7.59 7.66 35.41 35.67 35.89

28.47 7.67 36.14

28.80 7.66 36.46

29.17 7.72 36.89

29.59 7.84 37.43

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4.20 4.00 7.15 15.35

4.26 4.04 7.15 15.45

4.40 4.08 7.35 15.82

4.47 4.13 7.48 16.08

4.58 4.17 7.59 16.35

4.64 4.21 7.66 16.51

4.72 4.26 7.67 16.65

4.82 4.30 7.66 16.79

4.89 4.35 7.72 16.96

4.93 4.39 7.84 17.16

4.96 4.44 8.00 17.40

18.85

18.89

18.84

19.02

19.06

19.16

19.24

19.35

19.50

19.73

20.03

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

Eastern European Wheat W Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

8.78

8.86

8.87

8.86

(Million Hectares) 8.86 8.85 8.83

8.81

8.80

8.78

8.76

Yield

3.16

3.36

3.40

3.43

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.47 3.50 3.54

3.58

3.61

3.65

3.69

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

27.75 3.90 31.65

29.77 2.45 32.22

30.14 2.40 32.53

30.42 2.34 32.76

(Million Metric Tons) 30.73 31.01 31.26 2.28 2.24 2.20 33.00 33.24 33.46

31.51 2.18 33.69

31.78 2.15 33.93

32.05 2.14 34.18

32.30 2.12 34.42

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

9.90 19.25 2.45 31.60

10.00 19.35 2.40 31.75

10.24 19.47 2.34 32.05

10.43 19.60 2.28 32.31

10.61 19.74 2.24 32.59

10.79 19.87 2.20 32.86

10.99 20.00 2.18 33.16

11.21 20.12 2.15 33.47

11.48 20.22 2.14 33.84

11.78 20.32 2.12 34.23

12.14 20.41 2.11 34.65

0.05

0.47

0.48

0.44

0.42

0.38

0.31

0.21

0.10

-0.05

-0.23

Net Trade

04/05

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 145

European Union Wh heat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

17.68

17.68

17.76

17.74

(Million Hectares) 17.81 17.88 17.91

17.93

17.97

18.89

18.85

5.81

5.83

5.93

6.00

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 6.10 6.19 6.27

6.36

6.44

6.51

6.58

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

102.63 13.10 115.73

103.17 14.00 117.17

105.30 12.86 118.16

106.50 12.67 119.16

(Million Metric Tons) 108.60 110.64 112.33 11.60 11.01 10.93 120.20 121.65 123.26

113.94 10.68 124.61

115.69 10.19 125.88

122.91 9.42 132.33

124.03 14.03 138.06

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

42.95 46.80 14.00 103.75

43.49 47.08 12.86 103.43

43.74 47.35 12.67 103.76

44.19 47.64 11.60 103.43

44.70 47.89 11.01 103.60

44.99 48.15 10.93 104.06

45.54 48.36 10.68 104.57

46.09 48.59 10.19 104.86

46.31 48.79 9.42 104.52

46.42 48.97 14.03 109.41

46.44 49.15 18.64 114.24

11.98

13.75

14.40

15.73

16.60

17.59

18.69

19.75

21.36

22.91

23.82

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

Ukrainian Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

5.70

5.93

6.16

6.17

(Million Hectares) 6.19 6.20 6.20

6.22

6.24

6.23

6.25

Yield

1.93

2.20

2.22

2.24

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.26 2.28 2.30

2.32

2.34

2.36

2.38

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

11.00 0.90 11.90

13.04 0.35 13.39

13.67 0.44 14.11

13.83 0.46 14.29

(Million Metric Tons) 14.00 14.13 14.27 0.47 0.48 0.48 14.47 14.61 14.75

14.43 0.49 14.91

14.60 0.49 15.09

14.70 0.50 15.20

14.87 0.50 15.37

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.15 10.50 0.35 12.00

1.38 10.61 0.44 12.43

1.59 10.55 0.46 12.61

1.79 10.50 0.47 12.76

2.00 10.46 0.48 12.94

2.23 10.42 0.48 13.13

2.45 10.38 0.49 13.32

2.64 10.35 0.49 13.48

2.86 10.32 0.50 13.68

3.01 10.30 0.50 13.80

3.16 10.27 0.51 13.93

-0.10

0.96

1.50

1.53

1.53

1.48

1.43

1.43

1.42

1.40

1.44

Net Trade

146 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Japanese Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.17

0.17

0.17

Yield

3.53

3.55

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.60 1.20 1.80

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.17

(Million Hectares) 0.16 0.16 0.16

0.16

0.16

0.16

0.16

3.56

3.58

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.60 3.62 3.63

3.65

3.67

3.69

3.70

0.60 1.10 1.70

0.60 0.97 1.57

0.59 0.88 1.47

(Million Metric Tons) 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.81 0.77 0.74 1.41 1.36 1.33

0.59 0.72 1.31

0.59 0.71 1.30

0.59 0.70 1.29

0.58 0.70 1.28

6.20 1.10 7.30

6.08 0.97 7.05

6.04 0.88 6.92

6.02 0.81 6.83

6.00 0.77 6.77

5.99 0.74 6.74

5.99 0.72 6.71

5.99 0.71 6.70

5.99 0.70 6.69

5.99 0.70 6.69

5.99 0.70 6.69

-5.50

-5.35

-5.35

-5.36

-5.37

-5.37

-5.38

-5.39

-5.39

-5.40

-5.41

05/06

Russian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

23.00

23.38

23.78

23.50

(Million Hectares) 23.44 23.45 23.46

23.46

23.50

23.48

23.46

1.59

1.50

1.52

1.53

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.55 1.56 1.58

1.59

1.61

1.62

1.64

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

36.50 1.00 37.50

35.06 2.50 37.56

36.03 2.63 38.66

35.96 2.70 38.66

(Million Metric Tons) 36.23 36.60 36.98 2.70 2.72 2.74 38.92 39.31 39.72

37.36 2.77 40.13

37.79 2.80 40.59

38.14 2.83 40.97

38.49 2.86 41.35

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

12.40 24.60 2.50 39.50

12.49 24.69 2.63 39.81

12.96 24.70 2.70 40.36

13.22 24.72 2.70 40.64

13.47 24.76 2.72 40.95

13.75 24.80 2.74 41.29

14.04 24.86 2.77 41.66

14.25 24.91 2.80 41.97

14.44 24.98 2.83 42.26

14.59 25.04 2.86 42.49

14.81 25.11 2.89 42.80

-2.00

-2.25

-1.70

-1.98

-2.02

-1.98

-1.94

-1.83

-1.66

-1.52

-1.46

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 147

Other Former Sovie et Union Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

14.16

13.93

13.88

13.86

(Million Hectares) 13.85 13.86 13.86

13.86

13.86

13.83

13.78

1.41

1.35

1.36

1.37

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.38 1.39 1.40

1.41

1.42

1.43

1.44

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

19.94 3.84 23.78

18.80 3.87 22.67

18.88 4.32 23.20

18.98 4.53 23.51

(Million Metric Tons) 19.12 19.26 19.40 4.56 4.59 4.62 23.67 23.85 24.03

19.54 4.66 24.19

19.68 4.69 24.37

19.78 4.72 24.50

19.85 4.75 24.59

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4.26 14.17 3.87 22.30

4.21 14.37 4.32 22.90

4.31 14.45 4.53 23.30

4.46 14.54 4.56 23.56

4.59 14.64 4.59 23.81

4.72 14.74 4.62 24.08

4.84 14.85 4.66 24.35

5.01 14.97 4.69 24.67

5.21 15.09 4.72 25.03

5.34 15.23 4.75 25.32

5.52 15.37 4.76 25.65

1.48

-0.23

-0.10

-0.05

-0.14

-0.23

-0.32

-0.48

-0.66

-0.82

-1.06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

Other Western Euro opean Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.17

0.17

0.17

0.17

(Million Hectares) 0.18 0.18 0.18

0.18

0.19

0.19

0.19

Yield

5.39

5.46

5.54

5.61

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.68 5.75 5.82

5.90

5.97

6.05

6.12

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.89 0.48 1.37

0.92 0.48 1.39

0.94 0.48 1.42

0.97 0.48 1.45

(Million Metric Tons) 1.00 1.02 1.05 0.49 0.49 0.50 1.49 1.52 1.55

1.08 0.50 1.58

1.11 0.51 1.62

1.14 0.51 1.65

1.17 0.52 1.69

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.30 0.48 1.78

1.33 0.48 1.81

1.37 0.48 1.86

1.40 0.49 1.89

1.44 0.49 1.94

1.48 0.50 1.98

1.52 0.50 2.02

1.55 0.51 2.06

1.59 0.51 2.11

1.64 0.52 2.15

1.67 0.52 2.20

-0.41

-0.42

-0.43

-0.44

-0.45

-0.46

-0.47

-0.48

-0.49

-0.50

-0.51

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

148 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Chinese Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

27.00

27.87

27.87

27.68

(Million Hectares) 27.51 27.31 27.08

26.91

26.77

26.65

26.56

3.78

3.97

4.01

4.05

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.09 4.13 4.17

4.21

4.25

4.29

4.33

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

102.00 25.25 127.25

110.57 14.25 124.82

111.68 12.85 124.53

112.05 12.21 124.27

(Million Metric Tons) 112.45 112.72 112.88 12.27 12.41 12.55 124.73 125.13 125.43

113.25 12.69 125.94

113.71 12.81 126.53

114.29 12.95 127.24

114.94 13.10 128.04

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.00 112.00 14.25 128.25

1.99 112.51 12.85 127.35

1.99 113.31 12.21 127.52

2.00 113.62 12.27 127.90

2.03 114.28 12.41 128.72

2.06 114.97 12.55 129.58

2.08 115.60 12.69 130.38

2.11 116.21 12.81 131.13

2.13 116.86 12.95 131.95

2.16 117.59 13.10 132.85

2.18 118.28 13.24 133.70

-1.00

-2.53

-2.99

-3.63

-3.99

-4.45

-4.95

-5.19

-5.42

-5.61

-5.65

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

High-Income East Asian A Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

(Million Hectares) 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Yield

3.54

3.57

3.61

3.64

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.68 3.72 3.75

3.79

3.83

3.87

3.90

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.01 1.40 1.41

0.01 1.34 1.35

0.01 1.35 1.36

0.01 1.37 1.37

(Million Metric Tons) 0.01 0.01 0.01 1.38 1.39 1.41 1.39 1.40 1.42

0.01 1.42 1.43

0.01 1.44 1.44

0.01 1.45 1.46

0.01 1.47 1.47

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

5.14 1.34 6.48

5.15 1.35 6.50

5.23 1.37 6.60

5.31 1.38 6.69

5.39 1.39 6.79

5.49 1.41 6.90

5.59 1.42 7.01

5.69 1.44 7.13

5.81 1.45 7.26

5.93 1.47 7.39

6.05 1.48 7.53

-5.08

-5.15

-5.24

-5.31

-5.40

-5.50

-5.59

-5.70

-5.81

-5.93

-6.05

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 149

Indian Wheat Supplly and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

26.74

26.82

26.78

26.75

(Million Hectares) 26.80 26.89 26.98

27.06

27.13

27.16

27.17

2.78

2.68

2.72

2.76

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.80 2.84 2.87

2.89

2.92

2.94

2.96

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

74.30 14.11 88.41

71.97 15.96 87.93

72.87 15.35 88.22

73.81 14.61 88.42

(Million Metric Tons) 75.01 76.31 77.48 13.80 13.11 12.50 88.81 89.42 89.98

78.32 11.97 90.29

79.16 11.48 90.64

79.88 11.09 90.97

80.55 10.73 91.29

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.50 71.00 15.96 87.46

0.51 71.19 15.35 87.05

0.52 72.60 14.61 87.73

0.53 73.90 13.80 88.23

0.54 75.11 13.11 88.75

0.55 76.43 12.50 89.48

0.56 77.69 11.97 90.22

0.57 78.99 11.48 91.04

0.58 80.31 11.09 91.99

0.59 81.65 10.73 92.98

0.60 82.96 9.95 93.51

0.95

0.88

0.49

0.19

0.05

-0.06

-0.24

-0.75

-1.35

-2.00

-2.23

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

Pakistani Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

8.60

8.87

8.85

8.83

(Million Hectares) 8.86 8.86 8.86

8.86

8.85

8.80

8.75

Yield

2.44

2.28

2.33

2.37

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.42 2.46 2.51

2.55

2.60

2.64

2.69

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

21.00 2.20 23.20

20.26 1.25 21.51

20.60 1.15 21.75

20.95 1.10 22.05

(Million Metric Tons) 21.44 21.84 22.23 1.06 1.05 1.04 22.50 22.89 23.27

22.62 1.03 23.66

23.00 1.03 24.03

23.29 1.04 24.32

23.54 1.04 24.58

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.50 21.10 1.25 22.85

0.51 21.50 1.15 23.16

0.52 21.96 1.10 23.58

0.53 22.41 1.06 24.00

0.54 22.87 1.05 24.46

0.55 23.34 1.04 24.93

0.56 23.82 1.03 25.41

0.57 24.30 1.03 25.90

0.58 24.79 1.04 26.41

0.59 25.29 1.04 26.92

0.60 25.78 1.05 27.43

0.35

-1.65

-1.82

-1.95

-1.96

-2.05

-2.14

-2.24

-2.37

-2.59

-2.84

Net Trade

150 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

3.77

3.79

3.81

Yield

1.45

1.53

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

5.47 2.35 7.82

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

3.80

(Million Hectares) 3.79 3.80 3.80

3.80

3.80

3.80

3.80

1.57

1.60

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.61 1.63 1.65

1.66

1.68

1.70

1.71

5.82 2.35 8.17

5.98 2.33 8.31

6.06 2.31 8.38

(Million Metric Tons) 6.12 6.20 6.26 2.29 2.28 2.27 8.42 8.47 8.52

6.33 2.25 8.58

6.39 2.24 8.62

6.45 2.22 8.68

6.51 2.21 8.73

18.06 2.35 20.41

18.51 2.33 20.83

18.80 2.31 21.11

19.11 2.29 21.41

19.44 2.28 21.72

19.78 2.27 22.04

20.01 2.25 22.26

20.23 2.24 22.47

20.71 2.22 22.93

21.06 2.21 23.27

21.36 2.20 23.56

-12.59

-12.67

-12.80

-13.03

-13.30

-13.57

-13.74

-13.89

-14.31

-14.59

-14.83

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Brazilian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

1.35

1.33

1.33

1.33

(Million Hectares) 1.34 1.35 1.35

1.35

1.36

1.36

1.37

Yield

1.19

1.60

1.62

1.64

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.66 1.69 1.71

1.73

1.75

1.78

1.80

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.60 1.15 2.75

2.12 1.00 3.12

2.16 1.00 3.16

2.19 1.01 3.20

(Million Metric Tons) 2.23 2.27 2.31 1.02 1.02 1.03 3.25 3.29 3.34

2.34 1.04 3.38

2.38 1.04 3.43

2.42 1.05 3.48

2.46 1.06 3.52

9.65 1.00 10.65

9.70 1.00 10.70

9.83 1.01 10.84

9.96 1.02 10.97

10.09 1.02 11.11

10.23 1.03 11.26

10.38 1.04 11.42

10.53 1.04 11.57

10.69 1.05 11.74

10.85 1.06 11.91

11.01 1.07 12.08

-7.90

-7.58

-7.67

-7.77

-7.87

-7.97

-8.08

-8.19

-8.31

-8.43

-8.56

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 151

Mexican Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.75

0.77

0.78

Yield

4.40

4.43

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3.30 0.60 3.90

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.80

(Million Hectares) 0.81 0.82 0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

4.45

4.48

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.50 4.53 4.55

4.58

4.60

4.63

4.65

3.40 0.45 3.85

3.49 0.46 3.95

3.56 0.47 4.03

(Million Metric Tons) 3.64 3.72 3.79 0.48 0.48 0.49 4.12 4.20 4.28

3.86 0.50 4.35

3.93 0.51 4.43

3.99 0.51 4.51

4.06 0.52 4.58

5.35 0.45 5.80

5.39 0.46 5.85

5.47 0.47 5.94

5.55 0.48 6.02

5.64 0.48 6.13

5.75 0.49 6.25

5.88 0.50 6.38

6.01 0.51 6.52

6.17 0.51 6.68

6.34 0.52 6.86

6.53 0.52 7.05

-1.90

-2.00

-1.99

-1.99

-2.01

-2.05

-2.10

-2.17

-2.25

-2.35

-2.47

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Other Latin America an Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.87

0.92

0.98

1.03

(Million Hectares) 1.07 1.10 1.12

1.13

1.15

1.15

1.16

Yield

2.50

2.45

2.47

2.49

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.51 2.53 2.55

2.57

2.59

2.61

2.63

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.17 0.91 3.07

2.24 0.86 3.10

2.43 0.87 3.29

2.57 0.87 3.44

(Million Metric Tons) 2.69 2.78 2.85 0.88 0.89 0.90 3.57 3.67 3.75

2.91 0.91 3.82

2.97 0.92 3.89

3.01 0.93 3.94

3.05 0.94 3.99

10.90 0.86 11.76

11.05 0.87 11.92

11.26 0.87 12.13

11.45 0.88 12.33

11.67 0.89 12.56

11.89 0.90 12.79

12.11 0.91 13.02

12.34 0.92 13.25

12.59 0.93 13.51

12.87 0.94 13.81

13.17 0.95 14.12

-8.69

-8.82

-8.84

-8.89

-8.98

-9.11

-9.27

-9.43

-9.63

-9.87

-10.13

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

152 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Algerian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.80

1.13

1.25

Yield

0.94

1.00

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.75 1.00 1.75

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.39

(Million Hectares) 1.41 1.41 1.42

1.42

1.42

1.42

1.42

1.01

1.02

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.03 1.04 1.05

1.06

1.07

1.07

1.08

1.13 0.65 1.78

1.26 0.66 1.92

1.42 0.67 2.09

(Million Metric Tons) 1.45 1.47 1.48 0.68 0.69 0.70 2.13 2.16 2.18

1.50 0.71 2.21

1.51 0.72 2.23

1.52 0.73 2.25

1.54 0.74 2.28

6.30 0.65 6.95

6.32 0.66 6.98

6.39 0.67 7.06

6.45 0.68 7.13

6.52 0.69 7.21

6.60 0.70 7.30

6.69 0.71 7.40

6.78 0.72 7.50

6.87 0.73 7.60

6.97 0.74 7.71

7.07 0.75 7.82

-5.20

-5.21

-5.14

-5.04

-5.08

-5.14

-5.21

-5.29

-5.37

-5.46

-5.54

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Egyptian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

1.10

1.11

1.12

1.13

(Million Hectares) 1.13 1.13 1.13

1.13

1.13

1.12

1.11

Yield

6.00

6.04

6.10

6.18

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 6.28 6.40 6.54

6.70

6.88

7.08

7.30

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

6.60 1.05 7.65

6.80 0.90 7.70

6.87 0.91 7.77

6.92 0.91 7.83

(Million Metric Tons) 6.98 7.03 7.09 0.91 0.92 0.92 7.89 7.95 8.01

7.14 0.93 8.07

7.19 0.93 8.13

7.25 0.94 8.19

7.30 0.95 8.25

12.95 0.90 13.85

13.08 0.91 13.99

13.18 0.91 14.09

13.30 0.91 14.22

13.42 0.92 14.34

13.54 0.92 14.47

13.67 0.93 14.60

13.81 0.93 14.75

13.97 0.94 14.91

14.12 0.95 15.07

14.29 0.95 15.24

-6.20

-6.29

-6.32

-6.39

-6.45

-6.52

-6.59

-6.68

-6.78

-6.88

-7.00

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 153

Iranian Wheat Supp ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

6.00

6.61

6.60

Yield

1.25

1.77

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

7.50 2.48 9.98

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

6.59

(Million Hectares) 6.58 6.58 6.57

6.57

6.57

6.57

6.57

1.80

1.83

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.87 1.91 1.95

1.98

2.02

2.06

2.10

11.68 1.33 13.01

11.87 1.33 13.19

12.08 1.33 13.41

(Million Metric Tons) 12.32 12.56 12.80 1.33 1.33 1.33 13.64 13.88 14.13

13.04 1.33 14.37

13.29 1.33 14.62

13.54 1.33 14.86

13.78 1.33 15.11

0.30 15.85 1.33 17.48

0.31 16.18 1.33 17.81

0.31 16.54 1.33 18.18

0.32 16.97 1.33 18.62

0.32 17.34 1.33 18.99

0.33 17.68 1.33 19.34

0.33 18.01 1.33 19.67

0.34 18.34 1.33 20.00

0.34 18.68 1.33 20.34

0.35 19.01 1.33 20.68

0.35 19.35 1.33 21.03

-7.50

-4.80

-4.99

-5.20

-5.34

-5.45

-5.54

-5.63

-5.73

-5.82

-5.92

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Moroccan Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

2.50

2.19

2.21

2.25

(Million Hectares) 2.28 2.32 2.35

2.38

2.41

2.44

2.46

Yield

0.60

1.20

1.22

1.23

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.25 1.26 1.28

1.29

1.31

1.32

1.34

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.50 2.60 4.10

2.63 1.40 4.03

2.69 0.00 2.69

2.76 1.14 3.91

(Million Metric Tons) 2.84 2.92 2.99 1.09 1.05 1.03 3.93 3.97 4.03

3.07 1.02 4.09

3.14 1.01 4.15

3.22 1.01 4.22

3.29 1.00 4.29

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

5.63 1.40 7.03

5.77 0.00 5.77

5.84 1.14 6.98

5.98 1.09 7.07

6.09 1.05 7.14

6.22 1.03 7.25

6.37 1.02 7.39

6.54 1.01 7.55

6.72 1.01 7.73

6.92 1.00 7.93

7.15 1.00 8.15

-2.93

-2.98

-3.05

-3.16

-3.22

-3.28

-3.36

-3.46

-3.57

-3.71

-3.86

Net Trade

154 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Tunisian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.65

0.66

0.67

Yield

1.15

1.19

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.75 0.80 1.55

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.67

(Million Hectares) 0.68 0.68 0.69

0.69

0.70

0.70

0.71

1.21

1.23

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.26 1.28 1.30

1.33

1.35

1.37

1.40

0.78 0.63 1.41

0.81 0.53 1.34

0.83 0.48 1.31

(Million Metric Tons) 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.46 0.44 0.44 1.31 1.32 1.34

0.92 0.44 1.37

0.94 0.45 1.40

0.97 0.46 1.43

0.99 0.47 1.46

2.02 0.63 2.65

2.03 0.53 2.56

2.06 0.48 2.54

2.11 0.46 2.57

2.18 0.44 2.62

2.25 0.44 2.69

2.33 0.44 2.78

2.42 0.45 2.87

2.51 0.46 2.97

2.60 0.47 3.07

2.70 0.48 3.18

-1.10

-1.15

-1.20

-1.25

-1.31

-1.37

-1.43

-1.50

-1.57

-1.65

-1.72

Other African/Middlle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

14.98

14.97

14.94

14.93

(Million Hectares) 14.93 14.92 14.91

14.90

14.89

14.89

14.88

1.89

1.92

1.94

1.96

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.98 2.00 2.02

2.04

2.06

2.08

2.10

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

28.37 7.86 36.23

28.68 7.83 36.50

28.94 6.91 35.84

29.23 6.50 35.74

(Million Metric Tons) 29.54 29.84 30.13 6.28 6.16 6.07 35.82 35.99 36.21

30.43 6.00 36.43

30.72 5.93 36.65

31.02 5.88 36.90

31.31 5.83 37.14

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

45.51 7.83 53.34

46.22 6.91 53.13

46.61 6.50 53.12

47.02 6.28 53.30

47.44 6.16 53.60

47.88 6.07 53.95

48.32 6.00 54.33

48.78 5.93 54.71

49.19 5.88 55.07

49.62 5.83 55.45

50.06 5.76 55.82

-17.11

-16.63

-17.28

-17.56

-17.78

-17.96

-18.12

-18.28

-18.42

-18.55

-18.69

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 155

Czech Republic Wh heat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

1.00

1.04

1.05

Yield

4.10

4.12

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4.10 0.35 4.45

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.06

(Million Hectares) 1.06 1.07 1.07

1.07

1.08

1.08

1.08

4.13

4.15

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.16 4.18 4.19

4.21

4.22

4.24

4.25

4.29 0.35 4.64

4.36 0.35 4.71

4.39 0.35 4.75

(Million Metric Tons) 4.43 4.46 4.49 0.36 0.36 0.36 4.78 4.82 4.85

4.52 0.37 4.88

4.55 0.37 4.92

4.58 0.37 4.95

4.60 0.38 4.98

1.70 1.70 0.35 3.75

1.72 1.74 0.35 3.81

1.73 1.78 0.35 3.87

1.75 1.83 0.36 3.94

1.77 1.88 0.36 4.01

1.80 1.93 0.36 4.09

1.84 1.97 0.37 4.18

1.89 2.02 0.37 4.28

1.94 2.07 0.37 4.38

2.00 2.12 0.38 4.49

2.06 2.17 0.38 4.61

0.70

0.83

0.84

0.81

0.77

0.73

0.67

0.60

0.53

0.45

0.37

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Hungarian Wheat Supply S and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

1.03

1.12

1.14

1.14

(Million Hectares) 1.14 1.14 1.14

1.14

1.13

1.13

1.13

Yield

3.61

3.71

3.75

3.78

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.82 3.86 3.90

3.94

3.98

4.01

4.05

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3.70 0.40 4.10

4.17 0.10 4.27

4.28 0.04 4.33

4.32 0.02 4.35

(Million Metric Tons) 4.37 4.41 4.44 0.01 0.02 0.03 4.39 4.43 4.47

4.47 0.05 4.52

4.51 0.07 4.58

4.54 0.11 4.65

4.57 0.14 4.71

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.10 1.50 0.10 2.70

1.08 1.50 0.04 2.63

1.07 1.51 0.02 2.61

1.06 1.52 0.01 2.59

1.05 1.52 0.02 2.59

1.05 1.53 0.03 2.60

1.04 1.53 0.05 2.62

1.03 1.53 0.07 2.64

1.02 1.54 0.11 2.67

1.03 1.54 0.14 2.71

1.03 1.54 0.18 2.76

1.40

1.65

1.72

1.75

1.79

1.83

1.85

1.88

1.91

1.94

1.96

Net Trade

156 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Polish Wheat Supp ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

2.60

2.60

2.60

Yield

3.23

3.50

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

8.40 1.30 9.70

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

2.61

(Million Hectares) 2.61 2.61 2.61

2.61

2.61

2.61

2.61

3.54

3.58

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.63 3.67 3.72

3.76

3.80

3.85

3.90

9.10 0.90 10.00

9.22 0.94 10.16

9.34 0.95 10.29

(Million Metric Tons) 9.46 9.58 9.69 0.96 0.97 0.98 10.42 10.55 10.68

9.81 1.00 10.81

9.93 1.01 10.94

10.04 1.02 11.06

10.16 1.03 11.19

4.50 5.25 0.90 10.65

4.57 5.26 0.94 10.77

4.73 5.29 0.95 10.97

4.85 5.32 0.96 11.12

4.92 5.35 0.97 11.24

4.97 5.38 0.98 11.34

5.04 5.41 1.00 11.45

5.14 5.43 1.01 11.57

5.24 5.44 1.02 11.71

5.37 5.45 1.03 11.85

5.54 5.45 1.04 12.03

-0.95

-0.78

-0.81

-0.83

-0.82

-0.79

-0.77

-0.77

-0.77

-0.79

-0.84

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Other Eastern Euro opean Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

4.15

4.10

4.07

4.06

(Million Hectares) 4.05 4.03 4.01

3.99

3.98

3.96

3.94

Yield

2.78

3.00

3.03

3.07

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.10 3.13 3.17

3.20

3.24

3.27

3.31

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

11.55 1.85 13.40

12.29 1.10 13.39

12.35 1.14 13.49

12.44 1.16 13.60

(Million Metric Tons) 12.54 12.63 12.71 1.17 1.19 1.20 13.72 13.82 13.91

12.79 1.21 14.00

12.88 1.22 14.10

12.96 1.24 14.20

13.04 1.25 14.29

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.60 10.80 1.10 14.50

2.63 10.85 1.14 14.62

2.70 10.89 1.16 14.76

2.77 10.94 1.17 14.88

2.86 10.99 1.19 15.04

2.96 11.04 1.20 15.20

3.06 11.09 1.21 15.36

3.15 11.13 1.22 15.51

3.27 11.17 1.24 15.68

3.39 11.21 1.25 15.85

3.50 11.25 1.26 16.01

-1.10

-1.23

-1.26

-1.28

-1.32

-1.38

-1.45

-1.50

-1.58

-1.65

-1.72

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 157

Rest-of-World Whea at Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.06

0.06

0.06

Yield

5.00

5.05

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.28 0.10 0.38

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.06

(Million Hectares) 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

5.10

5.15

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.20 5.26 5.31

5.36

5.41

5.47

5.52

0.28 0.10 0.38

0.28 0.10 0.38

0.28 0.10 0.38

(Million Metric Tons) 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.39 0.39 0.39

0.29 0.10 0.39

0.30 0.10 0.40

0.30 0.10 0.40

0.30 0.10 0.40

0.71 0.10 0.81

0.72 0.10 0.82

0.72 0.10 0.82

0.73 0.10 0.83

0.73 0.10 0.83

0.74 0.10 0.84

0.74 0.10 0.84

0.74 0.10 0.84

0.75 0.10 0.85

0.76 0.10 0.86

0.76 0.10 0.86

-0.45

-0.44

-0.44

-0.44

-0.44

-0.45

-0.45

-0.45

-0.45

-0.46

-0.46

WORLD RICE

160 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Rice World rice area decreases from 151.9 mha in 2000/01 to 149.57 mha in 2010/11. Continued urbanization and competition from other crops contribute to the decline in rice area. However, steadily rising yields offset the decline in rice area and increase world rice production by 36.72 mmt over the baseline. World rice consumption increases at the same rate as production, growing 0.86 percent annually over the baseline. The growth in world rice consumption occurs mainly in non-traditional rice-consuming countries, such as the U.S., the EU, and Canada. Conversely, per capita consumption in Asian countries declines as a consequence of urbanization and income growth. World rice trade exceeds the 1998/99 peak level by 2003/04. Over the outlook period, world rice trade increases by nearly one-third, growing an average of 2.88 percent annually. Aided by the decline in per capita consumption, Asian countries capture most of the increase in rice exports. Thai rice production increases 10.6 percent over the outlook period, mostly through increases in yields. With Thai rice consumption remaining relatively flat, exports increase 27.4 percent, strengthening Thailand’s position as the world’s largest rice exporter. Thailand captures almost 27 percent of the increase in world rice trade. Vietnam and India secure most of the remaining increase in rice trade, capturing 27.2 and 34.6 percent respectively. Despite a slight decline in area, Indian rice production increases at an average annual rate of 1.24 percent. India’s share of exports doubles during the baseline, and India becomes the world’s third largest exporter in 2008/09. Vietnamese rice production grows 1.76 percent a year, driven by yield increases. Despite rising domestic consumption, Vietnamese rice exports increase by 1.75 mmt over the outlook period. Over the last three years, China has been a significant exporter on the world rice market. Relatively flat consumption in the early years of the outlook period, along with increases in yields, allows China’s share of exports to grow to 15.75 percent by 2003/04. In the long run, growing domestic consumption reduces Chinese rice exports to their 2000/01 level, and China’s market share drops to nearly 11 percent by 2010/11. Indonesia remains the world’s largest importer of rice, with imports accounting for slightly less than 10 percent of world rice trade. Indonesia becomes increasingly more dependent on imported rice to meet its domestic needs, importing an additional 0.71 mmt over the outlook period. WTO minimum import access commitments contribute to a steady decline in Japanese and South Korean rice area and weak growth in yields. Consequently, rice production falls 4.02 percent in Japan and 7.28 percent in South Korea over the outlook period. Japanese imports reach 0.60 mmt in 2010/11, as compared to 0.15 mmt in 2000/01. Rice exports from Argentina and Uruguay increase, respectively, 0.62 mmt and 0.33 mmt by 2010/11, supplying growing demand for imported rice in Brazil and other MERCOSUR countries. U.S. rice consumption grows 2.08 percent annually over the next decade. With both area and yield increases in the early years of the baseline, growth in domestic production is able to meet domestic needs and allow increases in U.S. exports until 2003/04. However, U.S. rice exports decline in the latter half of the baseline, falling to 2 mmt in 2010/11.

World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 161

Rice Trade 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Net Exporters Argentina China India Myanmar (Burma) Pakistan Taiwan Thailand United States Uruguay Vietnam

0.20 2.95 1.25 0.25 1.80 0.15 6.30 2.24 0.69 3.76

0.37 2.35 2.18 0.21 1.89 0.11 6.70 2.27 0.73 4.13

0.57 2.80 2.56 0.17 1.90 0.09 6.80 2.39 0.76 4.20

0.59 3.76 2.92 0.11 1.93 0.09 6.95 2.41 0.78 4.32

Total Net Exports

19.58

20.95

22.24

23.86

24.08

24.22

0.68 0.38 1.80 0.15 0.75 0.78 0.13 13.70 1.22

0.85 0.36 2.10 0.25 1.09 0.86 0.13 14.08 1.22

1.01 0.41 2.02 0.30 1.38 0.87 0.15 14.87 1.22

1.12 0.45 2.22 0.60 1.58 0.90 0.18 15.59 1.22

1.15 0.48 2.16 0.60 1.70 0.93 0.21 15.63 1.22

19.58

20.95

22.24

23.86

24.08

192.00 182.84

207.36 197.06

218.30 207.18

233.50 221.24

Net Importers Brazil European Union Indonesia Japan Philippines Saudi Arabia South Korea Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports

Rice Prices FOB Bangkok 100% B Grade FOB Bangkok 15% Broken

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Million Metric Tons) 0.63 0.66 0.69 3.73 3.36 3.24 2.88 3.04 3.09 0.08 0.05 0.02 1.95 1.98 2.01 0.09 0.09 0.10 7.10 7.26 7.41 2.34 2.31 2.25 0.81 0.84 0.87 4.47 4.63 4.79

0.72 3.20 3.10 0.00 2.04 0.11 7.56 2.20 0.91 4.96

0.76 3.03 3.20 0.06 2.06 0.12 7.72 2.12 0.94 5.15

0.79 2.87 3.41 0.05 2.09 0.14 7.87 2.06 0.98 5.33

0.82 2.89 3.47 0.01 2.11 0.15 8.03 1.99 1.02 5.51

24.49

24.82

25.17

25.58

26.00

1.09 0.51 2.15 0.60 1.74 0.96 0.21 15.73 1.22

1.08 0.55 2.22 0.60 1.76 1.00 0.21 15.85 1.22

1.10 0.58 2.30 0.60 1.77 1.04 0.21 16.00 1.22

1.11 0.61 2.41 0.60 1.77 1.09 0.21 16.14 1.22

1.17 0.65 2.47 0.60 1.78 1.15 0.21 16.33 1.22

1.23 0.68 2.51 0.60 1.79 1.21 0.21 16.54 1.22

24.22

24.49

24.82

25.17

25.58

26.00

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 236.31 243.97 249.19 223.84 230.92 235.76

259.06 244.88

262.35 247.92

268.80 253.90

276.42 260.94

162 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Rice Area Harvested Million Hectares 156 154 152 150 148 146 144 142 140 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

World Rice Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent

Dollars per Metric Ton

400

18

350

16 14

300

12 250 10 200 8 150

6

100

4

50

2 0

0 1990/91

1992/93 1994/95

1996/97 1998/99

2000/01 2002/03 2004/05

FOB Bangkok Price

2006/07 2008/09

Stock-to-Use Ratio

2010/11

World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 163

Rice Net Imports by Major Countries Million Metric Tons 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Japan

2000/01

Indonesia

2002/03

2004/05

Saudi Arabia

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Brazil

Rice Net Exports by Major Countries Million Metric Tons 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97 China

1998/99 India

2000/01

Pakistan

2002/03

Thailand

2004/05

Vietnam

2006/07

U.S.

2008/09

2010/11

164 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Rice Supply and a Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

151.93

151.01

150.59

2.64

2.67

Production Beginning Stock Total Supply

400.57 65.33 465.90

Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use

Area Harvested

Yield

Trade

Stock to Use Ratio

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

150.48

(Million Hectares) 150.47 150.36 150.27

150.11

150.05

149.81

149.57

2.70

2.74

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.77 2.79 2.82

2.85

2.88

2.90

2.92

402.92 62.95 465.87

407.29 59.52 466.81

411.92 57.37 469.29

(Million Metric Tons) 416.29 420.22 424.14 56.54 56.45 56.87 472.83 476.66 481.02

427.92 57.43 485.34

431.71 58.23 489.93

434.86 58.61 493.47

437.29 58.42 495.72

402.96 62.95 465.90

406.35 59.52 465.87

409.44 57.37 466.81

412.75 56.54 469.29

416.38 56.45 472.83

419.79 56.87 476.66

423.59 57.43 481.02

427.12 58.23 485.34

431.33 58.61 489.93

435.04 58.42 493.47

439.05 56.66 495.72

19.58

20.95

22.24

23.86

24.08

24.22

24.49

24.82

25.17

25.58

26.00

15.62

14.65

14.01

13.70

13.56

(Percent) 13.55

13.56

13.63

13.59

13.43

12.91

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

U.S. Rice Supply an nd Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

1.23

1.32

1.37

1.36

(Million Hectares) 1.36 1.36 1.36

1.35

1.35

1.34

1.33

Yield

7.04

6.77

6.78

6.83

(Metric Tons per Hectares) 6.88 6.92 6.97

7.02

7.07

7.12

7.17

Production Beginning Stock Domestic Supply

6.11 0.88 6.99

6.30 0.82 7.12

6.56 0.82 7.37

6.60 0.85 7.45

(Million Metric Tons) 6.65 6.70 6.73 0.84 0.84 0.84 7.48 7.54 7.57

6.76 0.84 7.59

6.78 0.82 7.60

6.81 0.82 7.63

6.81 0.82 7.64

Food Seed Brewing Residual Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3.10 0.13 0.49 0.21 0.82 4.75

3.19 0.14 0.50 0.21 0.82 4.85

3.27 0.14 0.51 0.21 0.85 4.98

3.35 0.14 0.51 0.21 0.83 5.04

3.44 0.14 0.52 0.21 0.84 5.14

3.52 0.14 0.52 0.21 0.84 5.23

3.61 0.14 0.53 0.21 0.83 5.32

3.69 0.14 0.53 0.21 0.82 5.39

3.78 0.14 0.54 0.21 0.82 5.49

3.86 0.14 0.54 0.21 0.82 5.57

3.94 0.14 0.55 0.21 0.81 5.64

2.24

2.27

2.39

2.41

2.34

2.31

2.25

2.20

2.12

2.06

1.99

Net Trade

World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 165

Argentine Rice Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.12

0.18

0.24

Yield

3.33

3.55

Production Beginning Stock Domestic Supply

0.40 0.06 0.46

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.24

(Million Hectares) 0.25 0.26 0.27

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.29

3.60

3.65

(Metric Tons per Hectares) 3.70 3.75 3.80

3.85

3.90

3.94

3.99

0.65 0.05 0.69

0.86 0.04 0.90

0.89 0.05 0.94

(Million Metric Tons) 0.93 0.97 1.01 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.99 1.03 1.08

1.05 0.08 1.13

1.10 0.09 1.18

1.13 0.10 1.24

1.17 0.12 1.29

0.21 0.05 0.26

0.27 0.04 0.31

0.28 0.05 0.33

0.29 0.05 0.34

0.29 0.06 0.35

0.30 0.07 0.37

0.31 0.08 0.39

0.31 0.09 0.40

0.32 0.10 0.42

0.33 0.12 0.45

0.34 0.13 0.47

0.20

0.37

0.57

0.59

0.63

0.66

0.69

0.72

0.76

0.79

0.82

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Brazilian Rice Supp ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

3.55

3.54

3.49

3.46

(Million Hectares) 3.46 3.44 3.42

3.38

3.35

3.31

3.26

Yield

2.08

2.10

2.15

2.20

(Metric Tons per Hectares) 2.24 2.29 2.33

2.37

2.42

2.46

2.50

Production Beginning Stock Domestic Supply

7.40 1.24 8.64

7.45 0.97 8.42

7.50 0.81 8.31

7.61 0.76 8.37

(Million Metric Tons) 7.76 7.87 7.96 0.83 0.97 1.07 8.59 8.84 9.03

8.03 1.14 9.17

8.10 1.19 9.29

8.14 1.22 9.36

8.16 1.24 9.41

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

8.35 0.97 9.32

8.46 0.81 9.27

8.56 0.76 9.32

8.66 0.83 9.49

8.77 0.97 9.74

8.87 1.07 9.94

8.97 1.14 10.11

9.07 1.19 10.26

9.18 1.22 10.40

9.28 1.24 10.52

9.38 1.26 10.64

-0.68

-0.85

-1.01

-1.12

-1.15

-1.09

-1.08

-1.10

-1.11

-1.17

-1.23

Net Trade

166 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Chinese Rice Suppl ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

30.30

30.01

30.00

29.98

(Million Hectares) 29.89 29.73 29.58

29.40

29.26

29.01

28.77

4.50

4.57

4.63

4.69

(Metric Tons per Hectares) 4.73 4.78 4.82

4.86

4.89

4.93

4.95

Production Beginning Stock Domestic Supply

136.50 26.23 162.73

137.19 23.03 160.21

138.98 21.01 159.99

140.54 20.42 160.97

(Million Metric Tons) 141.47 141.99 142.49 20.31 20.94 22.26 161.78 162.93 164.74

142.94 23.82 166.76

143.22 25.52 168.75

142.99 26.98 169.97

142.52 27.65 170.16

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

136.75 23.03 159.78

136.85 21.01 157.86

136.77 20.42 157.20

136.90 20.31 157.21

137.11 20.94 158.05

137.31 22.26 159.57

137.68 23.82 161.50

138.04 25.52 163.56

138.74 26.98 165.72

139.46 27.65 167.11

140.20 27.07 167.27

2.95

2.35

2.80

3.76

3.73

3.36

3.24

3.20

3.03

2.87

2.89

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

European Union Ric ce Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

(Million Hectares) 0.40 0.40 0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

Yield

4.17

4.20

4.23

4.26

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.29 4.32 4.35

4.38

4.41

4.44

4.47

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.66 0.67 2.32

1.67 0.61 2.28

1.68 0.57 2.26

1.70 0.55 2.25

(Million Metric Tons) 1.71 1.72 1.74 0.54 0.53 0.53 2.25 2.25 2.26

1.75 0.52 2.27

1.76 0.52 2.28

1.77 0.52 2.29

1.78 0.52 2.30

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.09 0.61 2.70

2.07 0.57 2.64

2.11 0.55 2.67

2.16 0.54 2.70

2.20 0.53 2.73

2.24 0.53 2.77

2.29 0.52 2.81

2.33 0.52 2.85

2.37 0.52 2.89

2.42 0.52 2.94

2.46 0.52 2.98

-0.38

-0.36

-0.41

-0.45

-0.48

-0.51

-0.55

-0.58

-0.61

-0.65

-0.68

Net Trade

World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 167

Indian Rice Supply and a Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

44.60

44.20

43.91

43.86

(Million Hectares) 43.84 43.86 43.90

43.91

43.96

44.00

44.04

1.98

2.00

2.04

2.07

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.10 2.13 2.16

2.19

2.22

2.25

2.27

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

88.50 16.40 104.90

88.60 19.65 108.25

89.37 20.35 109.72

90.61 20.20 110.80

(Million Metric Tons) 91.93 93.32 94.74 19.54 18.78 17.89 111.46 112.09 112.64

96.12 16.97 113.09

97.56 16.06 113.62

99.05 15.13 114.18

100.11 14.14 114.24

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

84.00 19.65 103.65

85.72 20.35 106.07

86.96 20.20 107.16

88.35 19.54 107.88

89.81 18.78 108.59

91.16 17.89 109.06

92.58 16.97 109.55

93.92 16.06 109.98

95.29 15.13 110.42

96.64 14.14 110.77

98.03 12.75 110.77

1.25

2.18

2.56

2.92

2.88

3.04

3.09

3.10

3.20

3.41

3.47

05/06

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

Indonesian Rice Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11.70

11.84

11.92

11.97

(Million Hectares) 12.00 12.01 12.02

12.03

12.03

12.03

12.04

2.86

2.92

2.95

2.98

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.01 3.04 3.07

3.10

3.13

3.16

3.19

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

33.50 3.13 36.62

34.57 1.92 36.49

35.16 1.68 36.84

35.65 1.44 37.09

(Million Metric Tons) 36.09 36.50 36.90 1.50 1.53 1.55 37.59 38.03 38.44

37.29 1.53 38.82

37.67 1.52 39.19

38.05 1.50 39.55

38.44 1.50 39.94

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

36.50 1.92 38.42

36.91 1.68 38.60

37.43 1.44 38.87

37.81 1.50 39.31

38.22 1.53 39.75

38.64 1.55 40.18

39.13 1.53 40.66

39.60 1.52 41.12

40.10 1.50 41.60

40.52 1.50 42.02

40.93 1.53 42.45

-1.80

-2.10

-2.02

-2.22

-2.16

-2.15

-2.22

-2.30

-2.41

-2.47

-2.51

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

168 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Japanese Rice Supp pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

1.76

1.76

1.75

Yield

4.89

4.92

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

8.62 1.96 10.58

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.73

(Million Hectares) 1.71 1.69 1.66

1.64

1.62

1.60

1.57

4.95

4.99

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.02 5.06 5.10

5.14

5.18

5.21

5.25

8.67 1.43 10.11

8.66 1.05 9.70

8.64 0.71 9.35

(Million Metric Tons) 8.58 8.53 8.49 0.71 0.69 0.67 9.29 9.22 9.16

8.44 0.66 9.10

8.38 0.67 9.05

8.33 0.69 9.02

8.27 0.73 9.00

9.30 1.43 10.73

9.31 1.05 10.36

9.29 0.71 10.00

9.25 0.71 9.95

9.20 0.69 9.89

9.15 0.67 9.82

9.09 0.66 9.76

9.03 0.67 9.70

8.96 0.69 9.65

8.89 0.73 9.62

8.81 0.79 9.60

-0.15

-0.25

-0.30

-0.60

-0.60

-0.60

-0.60

-0.60

-0.60

-0.60

-0.60

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Myanmarian Rice Supply S and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

5.80

5.82

5.84

5.87

(Million Hectares) 5.90 5.93 5.96

5.98

6.03

6.06

6.07

Yield

1.69

1.70

1.71

1.72

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.73 1.74 1.76

1.77

1.79

1.80

1.82

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

9.80 0.45 10.25

9.88 0.65 10.53

9.98 0.79 10.77

10.08 0.87 10.95

(Million Metric Tons) 10.20 10.33 10.46 0.92 0.95 0.96 11.12 11.27 11.42

10.59 0.96 11.55

10.78 0.96 11.74

10.93 0.96 11.88

11.05 0.96 12.01

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

9.35 0.65 10.00

9.53 0.79 10.32

9.73 0.87 10.60

9.92 0.92 10.84

10.10 0.95 11.04

10.26 0.96 11.22

10.43 0.96 11.39

10.59 0.96 11.55

10.72 0.96 11.68

10.88 0.96 11.84

11.05 0.95 11.99

0.25

0.21

0.17

0.11

0.08

0.05

0.02

0.00

0.06

0.05

0.01

Net Trade

World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 169

Pakistani Rice Supp ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

2.25

2.25

2.26

Yield

1.91

2.04

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4.30 1.07 5.37

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

2.27

(Million Hectares) 2.27 2.28 2.29

2.29

2.30

2.30

2.30

2.07

2.09

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.12 2.15 2.18

2.21

2.24

2.26

2.29

4.60 0.92 5.51

4.66 0.92 5.58

4.74 0.93 5.67

(Million Metric Tons) 4.82 4.91 4.99 0.94 0.95 0.97 5.76 5.86 5.95

5.06 0.98 6.05

5.14 1.00 6.14

5.21 1.01 6.23

5.29 1.03 6.31

2.65 0.92 3.57

2.71 0.92 3.63

2.75 0.93 3.68

2.81 0.94 3.75

2.86 0.95 3.81

2.91 0.97 3.88

2.96 0.98 3.94

3.01 1.00 4.01

3.06 1.01 4.07

3.11 1.03 4.14

3.16 1.04 4.20

1.80

1.89

1.90

1.93

1.95

1.98

2.01

2.04

2.06

2.09

2.11

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Philippine Rice Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

3.85

3.83

3.74

3.69

(Million Hectares) 3.69 3.70 3.72

3.74

3.76

3.78

3.80

Yield

2.05

1.97

2.00

2.02

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.04 2.06 2.08

2.10

2.13

2.15

2.17

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

7.88 2.00 9.89

7.56 2.09 9.65

7.46 1.98 9.44

7.45 1.88 9.33

(Million Metric Tons) 7.53 7.63 7.75 1.82 1.82 1.81 9.35 9.45 9.56

7.87 1.80 9.67

8.00 1.79 9.80

8.12 1.79 9.92

8.25 1.79 10.03

8.55 2.09 10.64

8.75 1.98 10.74

8.94 1.88 10.82

9.09 1.82 10.91

9.24 1.82 11.05

9.37 1.81 11.18

9.51 1.80 11.32

9.65 1.79 11.44

9.78 1.79 11.57

9.91 1.79 11.70

10.04 1.78 11.83

-0.75

-1.09

-1.38

-1.58

-1.70

-1.74

-1.76

-1.77

-1.77

-1.78

-1.79

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

170 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Saudi Arabian Rice e Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.00 0.07 0.07

0.00 0.07 0.07

0.00 0.07 0.08

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.77 0.72 1.49

0.86 0.73 1.59

-0.78

-0.86

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.00 0.07 0.08

(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.88 0.74 1.62

0.90 0.76 1.65

0.93 0.77 1.70

0.96 0.78 1.74

1.00 0.79 1.79

1.04 0.80 1.85

1.09 0.82 1.91

1.15 0.83 1.98

1.21 0.84 2.05

-0.87

-0.90

-0.93

-0.96

-1.00

-1.04

-1.09

-1.15

-1.21

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

1.07

0.99

0.96

0.95

(Million Hectares) 0.95 0.95 0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

Yield

4.94

4.97

4.99

5.02

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.04 5.07 5.09

5.12

5.15

5.17

5.20

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

5.30 1.36 6.66

4.94 1.79 6.72

4.81 1.75 6.56

4.78 1.63 6.41

(Million Metric Tons) 4.80 4.81 4.83 1.54 1.48 1.43 6.34 6.29 6.27

4.85 1.41 6.26

4.88 1.41 6.29

4.89 1.44 6.34

4.91 1.50 6.42

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

5.00 1.79 6.79

5.10 1.75 6.85

5.08 1.63 6.71

5.05 1.54 6.59

5.06 1.48 6.54

5.06 1.43 6.50

5.07 1.41 6.47

5.05 1.41 6.46

5.05 1.44 6.50

5.04 1.50 6.54

5.02 1.60 6.62

-0.13

-0.13

-0.15

-0.18

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

Net Trade

World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 171

Taiwanese Rice Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.36

0.37

0.36

Yield

3.85

3.88

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.40 0.14 1.54

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.35

(Million Hectares) 0.35 0.34 0.34

0.33

0.33

0.32

0.32

3.90

3.92

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.94 3.97 4.00

4.02

4.05

4.07

4.09

1.42 0.09 1.51

1.40 0.09 1.50

1.39 0.10 1.49

(Million Metric Tons) 1.38 1.36 1.35 0.11 0.12 0.12 1.49 1.48 1.47

1.34 0.12 1.46

1.33 0.12 1.45

1.32 0.12 1.44

1.30 0.12 1.43

1.30 0.09 1.39

1.31 0.09 1.40

1.30 0.10 1.41

1.29 0.11 1.40

1.28 0.12 1.40

1.27 0.12 1.39

1.25 0.12 1.37

1.23 0.12 1.35

1.20 0.12 1.33

1.18 0.12 1.30

1.15 0.12 1.28

0.15

0.11

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.10

0.11

0.12

0.14

0.15

05/06

Thai Rice Supply an nd Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

10.05

10.01

9.99

10.00

(Million Hectares) 10.00 10.01 10.01

10.02

10.02

10.02

10.01

1.65

1.67

1.69

1.71

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.72 1.74 1.76

1.78

1.80

1.82

1.83

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

16.60 1.66 18.26

16.71 1.97 18.69

16.86 1.97 18.84

17.05 1.98 19.03

(Million Metric Tons) 17.25 17.45 17.64 1.98 1.98 1.99 19.23 19.43 19.62

17.82 1.99 19.81

18.01 1.99 20.00

18.19 2.00 20.19

18.36 2.00 20.37

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

9.99 1.97 11.96

10.01 1.97 11.99

10.06 1.98 12.04

10.11 1.98 12.08

10.15 1.98 12.13

10.19 1.99 12.17

10.22 1.99 12.21

10.26 1.99 12.25

10.28 2.00 12.28

10.31 2.00 12.31

10.33 2.01 12.34

6.30

6.70

6.80

6.95

7.10

7.26

7.41

7.56

7.72

7.87

8.03

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

172 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Uruguayan Rice Sup upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

0.15

0.15

0.16

Yield

4.67

4.83

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.70 0.17 0.87

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.16

(Million Hectares) 0.17 0.17 0.17

0.18

0.18

0.18

0.18

4.86

4.92

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.98 5.07 5.16

5.28

5.41

5.55

5.71

0.75 0.08 0.83

0.77 0.00 0.77

0.80 -0.09 0.72

(Million Metric Tons) 0.83 0.86 0.90 -0.17 -0.26 -0.34 0.66 0.61 0.56

0.93 -0.42 0.51

0.97 -0.51 0.46

1.01 -0.59 0.42

1.05 -0.68 0.38

0.10 0.08 0.18

0.10 0.00 0.10

0.10 -0.09 0.02

0.10 -0.17 -0.07

0.11 -0.26 -0.15

0.11 -0.34 -0.23

0.11 -0.42 -0.32

0.11 -0.51 -0.40

0.11 -0.59 -0.48

0.11 -0.68 -0.56

0.11 -0.76 -0.65

0.69

0.73

0.76

0.78

0.81

0.84

0.87

0.91

0.94

0.98

1.02

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Vietnamese Rice Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

7.57

7.45

7.39

7.37

(Million Hectares) 7.38 7.38 7.40

7.41

7.43

7.45

7.46

Yield

2.74

2.80

2.86

2.91

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.97 3.02 3.08

3.14

3.19

3.25

3.30

Production

20.70

20.87

21.13

21.48

(Million Metric Tons) 21.90 22.33 22.78

23.23

23.71

24.17

24.64

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

16.94 0.00 16.94

16.73 0.00 16.73

16.93 0.00 16.93

17.16 0.00 17.16

17.43 0.00 17.43

17.70 0.00 17.70

17.98 0.00 17.98

18.27 0.00 18.27

18.56 0.00 18.56

18.84 0.00 18.84

19.13 0.00 19.13

3.76

4.13

4.20

4.32

4.47

4.63

4.79

4.96

5.15

5.33

5.51

Net Trade

World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 173

Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

27.17

26.88

26.81

26.81

(Million Hectares) 26.85 26.84 26.84

26.82

26.81

26.78

26.75

1.88

1.90

1.92

1.94

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.95 1.97 1.99

2.01

2.03

2.04

2.06

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

51.21 7.27 58.47

51.10 6.47 57.57

51.44 5.38 56.82

51.91 4.84 56.74

(Million Metric Tons) 52.46 52.93 53.40 4.91 5.01 5.09 57.37 57.94 58.50

53.85 5.18 59.03

54.33 5.25 59.58

54.74 5.34 60.08

55.17 5.41 60.58

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

65.70 6.47 72.17

66.28 5.38 71.66

66.85 4.84 71.69

67.42 4.91 72.33

67.99 5.01 73.00

68.58 5.09 73.67

69.17 5.18 74.35

69.77 5.25 75.02

70.38 5.34 75.72

71.00 5.41 76.41

71.63 5.48 77.12

-13.70

-14.08

-14.87

-15.59

-15.63

-15.73

-15.85

-16.00

-16.14

-16.33

-16.54

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

05/06

WORLD COARSE GRAINS

176 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Coarse Grains World coarse grain area has been declining over the last four years, falling in 2000/01 nearly 20 mha below the 1996/97 level. In the long run, coarse grain area grows a meager 0.16 percent annually, with increases in corn and barley area partially offset by decreases in sorghum area. World coarse grain production increases just over 137 mmt during the baseline, with the bulk of the growth resulting from yield growth in corn production. Coarse grain consumption rises 1.35 percent over the baseline, driven primarily by economic recovery in Asian countries and a corresponding increase in livestock production. Annual average growth in coarse grain prices ranges from 1.7 percent for barley to 2.85 percent for corn. However, corn price remains 30 percent below its 1995/96 record level. In the long run, coarse grain trade increases 27.15 percent, growing 2.43 percent annually. World corn trade is expected to grow the fastest among coarse grains, expanding 2.71 percent annually over the next decade. An additional 20.59 mmt are brought to international corn markets, with more than 90 percent of the additional shipments destined for developing countries to meet their sharply increasing feed demand. Asian countries remain the fastest-growing market for corn in the next decade. Taiwan and South Korea account for approximately 7 and 11 percent, respectively, of world corn trade. Taiwan’s corn imports grow steadily at 1.7 percent annually as livestock production recovers. The second largest corn importer in Asia, South Korea, imports 9.77 mmt by 2010/11 to meet its domestic feed demand, which grows 2.68 percent annually. Japan remains the largest corn importer in Asia, absorbing 23.8 percent of the world corn exports in 2000/01. Over the last five years, Japanese imports have been relatively flat; they are stable to slightly declining over the next decade in response to lower feed demand. In recent years, China has been a significant corn exporter. China’s corn exports drop to 4.05 mmt in 2000/01, less than half of what they were in 1999/00. Rising domestic feed use continues to sap excess supplies, and China becomes a net importer by 2005/06. China is projected to import 6.92 mmt of corn in 2010/11. Apart from Asia, Latin American countries also represent an important growing market. Mexico is the largest corn importer in Latin America, with imports growing nearly 2 percent annually due to steadily increasing feed use and a gradual reduction of over-quota tariff rates under NAFTA. Eastern European countries expand corn exports because corn production grows more rapidly than consumption. Over the outlook period, Eastern European countries increase their share of corn exports from 0 to 5.6 percent. Argentine corn production is expected to increase only through rising yields. Despite a slight decline in its market share, Argentina remains a strong competitor for U.S. corn, expanding its exports from 8.5 to 10 mmt by 2010/11. The U.S. remains the largest corn exporter and captures more than 90 percent of the increase in corn imports. As a result, U.S. market share rises from 79 to 82 percent. Barley imports expand by 2.42 mmt over the baseline. More than 70 percent of this increase occurs in China and Saudi Arabia. The EU captures most of the growth in barley trade, expanding its exports to more than 13 mmt by 2010/11. The EU’s barley export share increases from 61 to 66 percent, whereas Australian and Canadian market shares decline slightly. World sorghum trade is projected to increase by almost 2 mmt over the next decade, primarily because of growth in Mexican imports, which are partially offset by a decline in Japanese imports. The majority of the increase in import demand is satisfied by an expansion of U.S. exports, from 5.08 to 6.50 mmt over the next decade.

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 177

Corn Trade Net Exporters Argentina Hungary Other Eastern Europe South Africa Ukraine United States Total Net Exports

Net Importers Canada European Union Czech Republic Poland Israel Japan Russia Other Former Soviet Union Developing Algeria Egypt Other Africa Other Middle East Brazil Mexico Other Latin America China Indonesia Malaysia South Korea Taiwan Thailand Philippines India Pakistan Vietnam Other Asia Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports

Coarse Grain Prices Corn (FOB Gulf) Sorghum (FOB Gulf) Barley (Portland)

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

8.48 0.15 -0.11 0.95 0.59 53.15

8.22 1.02 1.11 0.65 0.81 54.21

8.48 1.21 1.49 0.74 0.86 54.83

8.72 1.25 1.81 0.86 0.78 55.67

(Million Metric Tons) 8.89 9.02 9.16 1.26 1.29 1.33 1.90 1.97 2.11 0.94 1.00 1.06 0.68 0.57 0.48 58.02 60.36 62.80

9.33 1.40 2.26 1.11 0.41 64.92

9.52 1.45 2.31 1.15 0.37 67.58

9.74 1.47 2.44 1.19 0.36 69.78

9.99 1.48 2.56 1.25 0.36 72.22

67.27

69.09

70.18

71.01

71.89

73.33

76.94

79.43

82.38

84.99

87.86

1.20 2.00 0.10 0.20 0.55 16.00 0.20 0.04 47.73 1.50 4.70 2.29 5.81 0.04 6.29 9.25 -4.05 1.15 2.40 8.00 5.10 0.10 0.60 0.34 0.00 0.15 0.16 0.10 -1.00

1.44 2.10 0.13 0.21 0.53 15.97 0.32 0.10 49.01 1.53 4.58 2.58 5.78 0.30 5.81 9.29 -3.07 1.15 2.37 8.25 5.17 0.63 1.09 0.40 0.00 0.17 0.09 0.11 -1.00

1.60 2.11 0.13 0.23 0.54 15.95 0.48 0.03 49.84 1.56 4.69 2.69 5.82 0.29 5.80 9.37 -2.56 1.19 2.44 8.83 5.25 0.44 0.98 0.39 0.00 0.17 0.11 0.11 -1.00

1.76 2.27 0.12 0.26 0.55 15.86 0.51 0.00 50.39 1.59 4.82 2.80 5.84 0.33 5.80 9.46 -1.93 1.25 2.49 8.88 5.33 0.26 0.99 0.42 0.00 0.17 0.13 0.12 -1.00

1.82 2.35 0.12 0.27 0.55 15.78 0.55 -0.05 51.17 1.62 4.94 2.87 5.88 0.28 5.83 9.59 -0.20 1.31 2.55 9.01 5.43 0.28 0.96 0.46 0.00 0.19 0.17 0.13 -1.00

1.80 2.43 0.12 0.29 0.56 15.81 0.59 -0.10 52.47 1.66 5.05 2.97 5.92 0.33 6.05 9.70 0.89 1.38 2.62 9.15 5.55 0.43 0.96 0.50 0.00 0.21 0.19 0.14 -1.00

1.85 2.40 0.12 0.31 0.56 15.76 0.60 -0.17 56.13 1.70 5.19 3.05 5.96 0.30 6.32 9.81 2.43 1.45 2.69 9.28 5.67 0.59 0.94 0.54 0.00 0.24 0.22 0.14 -1.00

1.92 2.46 0.13 0.33 0.56 15.65 0.62 -0.15 58.48 1.75 5.33 3.09 6.00 0.24 6.53 9.92 3.75 1.53 2.78 9.39 5.73 0.72 0.93 0.54 0.00 0.27 0.24 0.15 -1.00

1.92 2.43 0.13 0.36 0.57 15.61 0.64 -0.13 61.36 1.80 5.48 3.15 6.05 0.33 6.83 10.04 5.11 1.61 2.88 9.50 5.81 0.97 0.96 0.57 0.00 0.32 0.27 0.16 -1.00

1.86 2.39 0.14 0.40 0.57 15.64 0.66 -0.23 64.04 1.85 5.64 3.24 6.11 0.34 7.20 10.16 6.14 1.70 2.99 9.63 5.92 1.22 0.97 0.63 0.00 0.37 0.29 0.17 -1.00

1.81 2.66 0.14 0.44 0.58 15.65 0.69 -0.26 66.54 1.90 5.82 3.34 6.15 0.35 7.64 10.27 6.92 1.79 3.11 9.77 6.05 1.48 1.00 0.63 0.00 0.43 0.31 0.18 -1.00

67.27

69.09

70.18

71.01

71.89

73.33

76.94

79.43

82.38

84.99

87.86

88.78 89.68 121.39

96.54 92.24 128.00

98.60 93.50 128.62

100.39 95.55 133.01

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 102.31 104.64 107.40 97.61 100.48 103.24 134.31 135.57 137.73

109.83 105.21 139.19

111.81 107.08 140.58

114.47 109.90 141.20

117.53 113.01 143.54

178 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Barley Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Canada European Union Russia Ukraine United States Total Net Exports

Net Importers Czech Republic Hungary Poland Other Eastern Europe Israel Japan Other Former Soviet Union Developing Algeria Other Africa Saudi Arabia Other Middle East Brazil Mexico Other Latin America China Pakistan Taiwan Other Asia Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports

Coarse Grain Prices Corn (FOB Gulf) Sorghum (FOB Gulf) Barley (Portland)

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.04 3.59 1.66 10.90 0.20 0.65 0.44

0.05 3.36 1.68 10.77 -0.39 0.72 0.37

0.07 3.47 1.65 10.89 -0.53 0.77 0.40

0.08 3.55 1.48 11.04 -0.39 0.59 0.42

(Million Metric Tons) 0.10 0.11 0.13 3.61 3.66 3.71 1.40 1.48 1.46 11.47 11.83 12.31 -0.49 -0.53 -0.58 0.39 0.19 0.02 0.45 0.48 0.53

0.14 3.77 1.39 12.73 -0.57 0.03 0.56

0.16 3.83 1.47 12.94 -0.50 0.06 0.58

0.18 3.85 1.65 13.05 -0.41 0.12 0.61

0.19 3.85 1.83 13.34 -0.43 0.20 0.63

17.76

17.38

17.56

17.65

17.84

18.12

18.45

18.85

19.25

19.71

20.18

0.13 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.40 1.60 -0.29 13.23 1.00 2.00 4.80 2.23 0.10 0.20 0.21 2.40 0.00 0.20 0.10 0.01 1.84

0.09 -0.04 0.16 0.31 0.43 1.60 -0.82 12.84 0.64 1.59 4.99 2.22 0.11 0.21 0.21 2.59 0.00 0.21 0.10 0.14 1.84

0.06 -0.06 0.25 0.28 0.43 1.62 -0.83 12.94 0.56 1.62 5.05 2.23 0.12 0.22 0.21 2.60 0.00 0.22 0.10 0.20 1.84

0.03 -0.09 0.33 0.23 0.43 1.60 -0.90 13.03 0.56 1.64 5.11 2.23 0.13 0.23 0.21 2.60 0.00 0.23 0.10 0.25 1.84

0.00 -0.12 0.41 0.19 0.43 1.61 -0.92 13.17 0.55 1.67 5.16 2.25 0.14 0.24 0.21 2.60 0.00 0.24 0.10 0.31 1.84

-0.02 -0.14 0.49 0.17 0.43 1.64 -0.90 13.35 0.56 1.71 5.23 2.27 0.15 0.24 0.21 2.63 0.00 0.26 0.10 0.36 1.84

-0.04 -0.17 0.57 0.14 0.43 1.65 -0.87 13.61 0.56 1.74 5.31 2.28 0.16 0.25 0.22 2.73 0.00 0.27 0.10 0.42 1.84

-0.05 -0.20 0.67 0.10 0.43 1.64 -0.79 13.95 0.56 1.77 5.39 2.30 0.18 0.26 0.22 2.88 0.00 0.28 0.10 0.47 1.84

-0.06 -0.22 0.77 0.06 0.43 1.64 -0.72 14.26 0.57 1.81 5.51 2.32 0.19 0.27 0.22 2.98 0.00 0.30 0.10 0.53 1.84

-0.07 -0.24 0.88 0.04 0.43 1.66 -0.66 14.58 0.57 1.86 5.63 2.34 0.20 0.28 0.23 3.06 0.00 0.31 0.10 0.59 1.84

-0.07 -0.26 1.00 0.01 0.42 1.68 -0.56 14.91 0.57 1.89 5.79 2.35 0.22 0.29 0.24 3.14 0.00 0.32 0.10 0.64 1.84

17.76

17.38

17.56

17.65

17.84

18.12

18.45

18.85

19.25

19.71

20.18

88.78 89.68 121.39

96.54 92.24 128.00

98.60 93.50 128.62

100.39 95.55 133.01

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 102.31 104.64 107.40 97.61 100.48 103.24 134.31 135.57 137.73

109.83 105.21 139.19

111.81 107.08 140.58

114.47 109.90 141.20

117.53 113.01 143.54

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 179

Sorghum Trade 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0.65 0.70 5.08

0.68 0.58 5.07

0.71 0.61 5.32

6.43

6.33

Net Importers Israel Japan Developing Mexico South Africa Nigeria India Pakistan

0.15 2.10 3.53 3.50 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports

Net Exporters Argentina Australia United States Total Net Exports

Coarse Grain Prices Corn (FOB Gulf) Sorghum (FOB Gulf) Barley (Portland)

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.71 0.66 5.38

(Million Metric Tons) 0.66 0.62 0.61 0.70 0.75 0.80 5.48 5.76 5.95

0.61 0.84 6.01

0.62 0.89 6.13

0.69 0.94 6.33

0.78 0.97 6.50

6.64

6.76

6.85

7.13

7.36

7.46

7.64

7.95

8.24

0.16 1.94 3.76 3.73 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.16 1.98 3.99 3.94 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.17 1.91 4.17 4.10 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.18 1.90 4.24 4.14 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.19 1.96 4.45 4.32 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.19 1.96 4.63 4.48 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.20 1.91 4.71 4.53 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.21 1.90 4.84 4.64 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.23 1.92 5.06 4.83 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.24 1.93 5.28 5.02 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.58 0.07

0.40 0.07

0.43 0.07

0.43 0.07

0.45 0.07

0.47 0.07

0.50 0.07

0.56 0.07

0.62 0.07

0.67 0.07

0.72 0.07

6.43

6.33

6.64

6.76

6.85

7.13

7.36

7.46

7.64

7.95

8.24

88.78 89.68 121.39

96.54 92.24 128.00

98.60 93.50 128.62

100.39 95.55 133.01

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 102.31 104.64 107.40 97.61 100.48 103.24 134.31 135.57 137.73

109.83 105.21 139.19

111.81 107.08 140.58

114.47 109.90 141.20

117.53 113.01 143.54

180 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Coarse Grain Area Harvested Million Hectares

300

250

200

150

100

50

0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Barley

Corn

Sorghum

World Corn Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent

Dollars per Metric Ton

180

25

160 20

140 120

15 100 80 10 60 40

5

20 0

0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Stock-to-Use Ratio

FOB Gulf Price

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 181

Corn Net Imports by Major Regions Million Metric Tons 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

Developing Other

1998/99

2000/01

Developing Asia

2002/03 Developed

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Russia and Other FSU

Corn Net Exports by Competitors Million Metric Tons 20

15

10

5

0

-5 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Argentina

2000/01

2002/03

Eastern Europe

2004/05

South Africa

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

182 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Corn Trade and Market Share Million Metric Tons

Percent

80

100 90

70

80 60 70 50

60

40

50 40

30

30 20 20 10

10 0

0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 U.S.

Market Share

Barley Net Exports by Major Countries Million Metric Tons

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

European Union

2002/03

Canada

2004/05

Australia

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 183

Sorghum Net Imports Million Metric Tons 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01 Japan

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Mexico

Sorghum Net Exports Million Metric Tons 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99 Argentina

2000/01

2002/03

Australia

U.S.

184 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Corn Supply y and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

139.26

139.52

140.04

4.19

4.34

Production Beginning Stocks Total Supply

582.97 125.27 708.24

Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use

Area Harvested

Yield

Trade *

Stock to Use Ratio

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

140.35

(Million Hectares) 140.57 140.78 141.06

141.36

141.62

141.91

142.10

4.40

4.46

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.52 4.58 4.64

4.70

4.76

4.83

4.88

605.21 106.57 711.78

616.36 102.44 718.80

626.04 101.98 728.02

(Million Metric Tons) 635.51 644.95 654.89 101.51 101.32 100.93 737.02 746.27 755.81

664.91 100.62 765.53

674.60 100.58 775.17

684.80 100.42 785.23

693.82 101.45 795.27

601.67 106.57 708.24

609.34 102.44 711.78

616.82 101.98 718.80

626.51 101.51 728.02

635.70 101.32 737.02

645.35 100.93 746.27

655.19 100.62 755.81

664.95 100.58 765.53

674.75 100.42 775.17

683.77 101.45 785.23

692.93 102.35 795.27

67.27

69.09

70.18

71.01

71.89

73.33

76.94

79.43

82.38

84.99

87.86

17.71

16.81

16.53

16.20

15.94

(Percent) 15.64

15.36

15.13

14.88

14.84

14.77

05/06

* Excludes intraregional trade.

World Barley Supplly and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

54.93

55.21

55.49

55.77

(Million Hectares) 55.97 56.02 56.05

56.13

56.16

56.73

56.66

2.40

2.45

2.45

2.47

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.49 2.52 2.54

2.57

2.59

2.64

2.67

Production Beginning Stocks Total Supply

131.97 25.14 157.10

135.05 23.55 158.60

136.03 23.06 159.09

137.95 22.79 160.73

(Million Metric Tons) 139.61 141.12 142.61 22.42 22.44 23.18 162.03 163.57 165.79

144.19 23.40 167.60

145.67 23.53 169.21

149.97 23.77 173.73

151.34 26.84 178.18

Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use

133.55 23.55 157.10

135.54 23.06 158.60

136.30 22.79 159.09

138.32 22.42 160.74

139.58 22.44 162.02

140.39 23.18 163.58

142.38 23.40 165.78

144.07 23.53 167.61

145.43 23.77 169.20

146.91 26.84 173.74

148.35 29.82 178.17

17.76

17.38

17.56

17.65

17.84

18.12

18.45

18.85

19.25

19.71

20.18

17.63

17.02

16.72

16.21

16.08

(Percent) 16.51

16.44

16.34

16.34

18.27

20.10

Area Harvested

Yield

Trade *

Stock to Use Ratio * Excludes intraregional trade.

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 185

World Sorghum Sup upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

40.82

40.55

40.59

40.99

(Million Hectares) 40.96 40.82 40.69

40.57

40.36

40.15

40.05

1.26

1.32

1.33

1.34

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.35 1.37 1.38

1.40

1.42

1.43

1.45

Production Beginning Stocks Total Supply

51.29 5.81 57.10

53.48 5.39 58.87

54.04 5.40 59.44

55.00 5.45 60.45

(Million Metric Tons) 55.49 55.89 56.35 5.47 5.50 5.46 60.96 61.39 61.81

56.82 5.44 62.27

57.21 5.37 62.58

57.61 5.30 62.92

58.11 5.25 63.37

Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use

51.71 5.39 57.10

53.48 5.40 58.87

53.99 5.45 59.44

54.98 5.47 60.45

55.46 5.50 60.96

55.93 5.46 61.39

56.36 5.44 61.81

56.89 5.37 62.27

57.28 5.30 62.58

57.66 5.25 62.92

58.18 5.18 63.37

6.43

6.33

6.64

6.76

6.85

7.13

7.36

7.46

7.64

7.95

8.24

10.43

10.10

10.09

9.95

9.92

(Percent) 9.76

9.66

9.45

9.25

9.11

8.91

Area Harvested

Yield

Trade *

Stock to Use Ratio * Excludes intraregional trade.

05/06

186 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Coarse Grain Supply S and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

29.43

28.89

29.17

29.29

(Million Hectares) 29.42 29.58 29.76

29.97

30.11

30.13

30.19

8.60

8.55

8.67

8.79

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 8.91 9.03 9.14

9.26

9.37

9.49

9.61

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

253.21 43.63 296.84

246.95 47.01 293.95

252.75 43.67 296.42

257.40 42.92 300.33

(Million Metric Tons) 262.12 266.98 272.12 42.48 42.03 41.55 304.60 309.01 313.67

277.43 40.96 318.40

282.29 40.52 322.82

285.98 40.21 326.19

290.08 39.51 329.59

Feed and Residual Food and Other HFCS Seed Fuel Alcohol Ending Stocks Domestic Use

146.90 20.33 13.89 0.50 15.05 47.01 243.69

144.70 20.76 14.31 0.51 15.67 43.67 239.62

146.09 21.20 14.78 0.51 15.96 42.92 241.46

148.70 21.50 15.22 0.51 16.11 42.48 244.53

150.13 21.85 15.63 0.52 16.29 42.03 246.45

151.63 22.25 16.04 0.52 16.54 41.55 248.52

153.42 22.64 16.44 0.52 16.75 40.96 250.74

155.37 23.04 16.85 0.52 17.05 40.52 253.35

156.24 23.44 17.25 0.52 17.44 40.21 255.11

156.96 23.84 17.65 0.52 17.79 39.51 256.28

157.66 24.24 18.04 0.53 18.10 38.67 257.25

53.15

54.34

54.96

55.80

58.15

60.49

62.93

65.04

67.71

69.91

72.34

Sorghum Area Harvested

3.13

3.36

3.36

3.31

(Million Hectares) 3.29 3.28 3.28

3.27

3.25

3.23

3.22

Yield

3.82

4.27

4.29

4.32

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.34 4.37 4.39

4.42

4.44

4.47

4.49

11.94 1.66 13.60

14.32 1.14 15.46

14.41 1.52 15.92

14.30 1.56 15.86

(Million Metric Tons) 14.31 14.34 14.42 1.48 1.43 1.37 15.79 15.77 15.78

14.46 1.31 15.77

14.45 1.27 15.72

14.43 1.24 15.67

14.45 1.17 15.63

6.09 1.29 1.14 8.52

7.56 1.31 1.52 10.39

7.74 1.31 1.56 10.61

7.70 1.31 1.48 10.48

7.56 1.31 1.43 10.30

7.34 1.30 1.37 10.01

7.22 1.30 1.31 9.83

7.19 1.30 1.27 9.77

7.05 1.31 1.24 9.59

6.87 1.30 1.17 9.34

6.72 1.31 1.10 9.13

5.08

5.07

5.32

5.38

5.48

5.76

5.95

6.01

6.13

6.33

6.50

Corn Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Feed and Residual Food, Seed and Industrial Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 187

U.S. Coarse Grain Supply S and Utilization (continued) 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Barley Area Harvested

2.10

2.16

2.16

Yield Actual

3.29

3.35

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

6.92 2.43 9.35

Feed and Residual Food Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

2.16

(Million Hectares) 2.14 2.12 2.12

2.11

2.10

2.09

2.09

3.38

3.41

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.44 3.47 3.50

3.53

3.56

3.59

3.62

7.24 2.31 9.55

7.30 2.31 9.61

7.35 2.28 9.63

(Million Metric Tons) 7.36 7.37 7.41 2.25 2.23 2.21 9.61 9.60 9.62

7.45 2.19 9.64

7.48 2.17 9.65

7.52 2.15 9.67

7.57 2.12 9.69

2.85 3.75 2.31 8.91

3.11 3.77 2.31 9.18

3.14 3.79 2.28 9.21

3.16 3.81 2.25 9.22

3.11 3.82 2.23 9.16

3.07 3.84 2.21 9.12

3.04 3.86 2.19 9.09

3.02 3.88 2.17 9.07

3.01 3.91 2.15 9.06

3.01 3.93 2.12 9.06

3.02 3.95 2.08 9.06

0.44

0.37

0.40

0.42

0.45

0.48

0.53

0.56

0.58

0.61

0.63

Oats Area Harvested

0.94

0.96

0.87

0.84

(Million Hectares) 0.82 0.81 0.79

0.77

0.76

0.75

0.73

Yield Actual

2.30

2.17

2.18

2.19

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.20 2.21 2.22

2.22

2.23

2.24

2.25

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.17 1.10 3.26

2.07 1.16 3.23

1.90 1.13 3.03

1.83 1.07 2.89

(Million Metric Tons) 1.81 1.78 1.75 1.01 0.98 0.96 2.82 2.76 2.71

1.72 0.93 2.65

1.69 0.91 2.61

1.67 0.89 2.56

1.63 0.87 2.51

Feed and Residual Food Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.54 0.99 1.16 4.69

2.56 0.99 1.13 4.68

2.46 0.99 1.07 4.51

2.38 1.00 1.01 4.39

2.33 1.01 0.98 4.32

2.30 1.01 0.96 4.27

2.27 1.02 0.93 4.22

2.23 1.03 0.91 4.17

2.20 1.03 0.89 4.13

2.18 1.04 0.87 4.09

2.14 1.05 0.85 4.04

-1.42

-1.45

-1.48

-1.50

-1.50

-1.51

-1.51

-1.52

-1.52

-1.53

-1.53

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

188 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Argentine Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

2.83

2.80

2.83

5.30

5.22

5.31

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

2.85

(Million Hectares) 2.85 2.85 2.85

2.85

2.85

2.84

2.84

5.40

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.50 5.60 5.69

5.79

5.89

6.00

6.10

(Million Metric Tons) 15.69 15.96 16.22 0.42 0.42 0.42 16.11 16.38 16.65

16.51 0.43 16.93

16.78 0.43 17.21

17.05 0.43 17.49

17.35 0.44 17.79

15.00 0.41 15.41

14.62 0.43 15.05

15.02 0.40 15.43

15.38 0.41 15.79

6.50 0.43 6.93

6.43 0.40 6.83

6.53 0.41 6.94

6.66 0.42 7.07

6.80 0.42 7.22

6.94 0.42 7.36

7.06 0.43 7.49

7.17 0.43 7.60

7.26 0.43 7.69

7.31 0.44 7.75

7.35 0.44 7.80

8.48

8.22

8.48

8.72

8.89

9.02

9.16

9.33

9.52

9.74

9.99

Sorghum Area Harvested

0.75

0.78

0.78

0.78

(Million Hectares) 0.78 0.78 0.79

0.79

0.80

0.80

0.81

Yield

4.40

4.45

4.50

4.55

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.60 4.65 4.70

4.75

4.80

4.85

4.90

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3.30 0.73 4.03

3.46 0.68 4.14

3.50 0.72 4.22

3.56 0.72 4.28

(Million Metric Tons) 3.59 3.63 3.70 0.73 0.73 0.73 4.32 4.36 4.43

3.77 0.73 4.50

3.82 0.73 4.55

3.88 0.73 4.61

3.96 0.73 4.69

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.70 0.68 3.38

2.74 0.72 3.46

2.79 0.72 3.51

2.84 0.73 3.57

2.93 0.73 3.65

3.01 0.73 3.74

3.09 0.73 3.82

3.16 0.73 3.89

3.20 0.73 3.93

3.20 0.73 3.93

3.18 0.73 3.91

0.65

0.68

0.71

0.71

0.66

0.62

0.61

0.61

0.62

0.69

0.78

Barley Area Harvested

0.20

0.21

0.21

0.22

(Million Hectares) 0.22 0.23 0.23

0.24

0.24

0.25

0.25

Yield

2.25

2.29

2.32

2.36

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.40 2.44 2.47

2.51

2.55

2.60

2.64

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.45 0.05 0.50

0.47 0.05 0.52

0.49 0.05 0.54

0.51 0.05 0.56

(Million Metric Tons) 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.58 0.60 0.62

0.59 0.06 0.65

0.61 0.06 0.67

0.64 0.06 0.70

0.66 0.07 0.73

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.41 0.05 0.46

0.42 0.05 0.47

0.42 0.05 0.47

0.43 0.05 0.48

0.43 0.05 0.48

0.44 0.06 0.49

0.44 0.06 0.50

0.45 0.06 0.51

0.45 0.06 0.51

0.46 0.07 0.52

0.46 0.07 0.53

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.08

0.10

0.11

0.13

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.19

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 189

Australian Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Sorghum Area Harvested

0.68

0.69

0.70

Yield

3.11

2.45

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.10 0.10 2.20

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.71

(Million Hectares) 0.72 0.73 0.73

0.74

0.75

0.76

0.76

2.48

2.51

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.54 2.57 2.60

2.63

2.66

2.68

2.71

1.69 0.10 1.79

1.74 0.09 1.82

1.78 0.09 1.87

(Million Metric Tons) 1.82 1.86 1.91 0.09 0.09 0.09 1.91 1.95 2.00

1.95 0.09 2.05

2.00 0.09 2.09

2.04 0.10 2.14

2.07 0.10 2.17

1.40 0.10 1.50

1.13 0.09 1.21

1.13 0.09 1.21

1.12 0.09 1.21

1.12 0.09 1.21

1.11 0.09 1.20

1.11 0.09 1.20

1.11 0.09 1.20

1.11 0.10 1.20

1.10 0.10 1.20

1.10 0.10 1.20

0.70

0.58

0.61

0.66

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.84

0.89

0.94

0.97

Barley Area Harvested

3.00

2.96

2.95

2.95

(Million Hectares) 2.97 2.98 3.00

3.01

3.03

3.04

3.02

Yield

1.80

1.82

1.84

1.87

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.89 1.91 1.93

1.96

1.98

2.00

2.03

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

5.40 0.36 5.76

5.38 0.36 5.74

5.44 0.53 5.97

5.51 0.57 6.08

(Million Metric Tons) 5.60 5.70 5.79 0.58 0.59 0.59 6.18 6.28 6.38

5.89 0.60 6.49

5.99 0.60 6.59

6.10 0.61 6.70

6.13 0.61 6.74

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.82 0.36 2.17

1.86 0.53 2.39

1.92 0.57 2.49

1.95 0.58 2.53

1.99 0.59 2.58

2.03 0.59 2.63

2.07 0.60 2.67

2.12 0.60 2.72

2.16 0.61 2.77

2.24 0.61 2.85

2.28 0.62 2.89

3.59

3.36

3.47

3.55

3.61

3.66

3.71

3.77

3.83

3.85

3.85

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

190 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Canadian Coarse G Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

1.08

1.08

1.09

Yield

6.33

7.30

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

6.80 0.95 7.75

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.09

(Million Hectares) 1.09 1.09 1.09

1.09

1.09

1.09

1.09

7.37

7.44

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 7.51 7.58 7.65

7.72

7.79

7.86

7.93

7.89 0.35 8.24

8.01 0.29 8.29

8.11 0.27 8.38

(Million Metric Tons) 8.21 8.30 8.38 0.28 0.30 0.33 8.49 8.60 8.70

8.45 0.36 8.81

8.53 0.39 8.91

8.61 0.42 9.02

8.68 0.45 9.13

8.60 0.35 8.95

9.40 0.29 9.68

9.62 0.27 9.89

9.87 0.28 10.14

10.01 0.30 10.31

10.08 0.33 10.40

10.19 0.36 10.55

10.34 0.39 10.72

10.42 0.42 10.84

10.43 0.45 10.88

10.46 0.49 10.94

-1.20

-1.44

-1.60

-1.76

-1.82

-1.80

-1.85

-1.92

-1.92

-1.86

-1.81

Barley Area Harvested

4.50

4.52

4.52

4.52

(Million Hectares) 4.53 4.55 4.56

4.57

4.59

4.60

4.62

Yield

2.89

3.10

3.13

3.16

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.19 3.22 3.26

3.29

3.32

3.35

3.38

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

13.00 3.07 16.07

13.98 2.61 16.59

14.13 2.70 16.83

14.30 2.72 17.02

(Million Metric Tons) 14.47 14.65 14.84 2.73 2.74 2.76 17.21 17.40 17.59

15.03 2.77 17.79

15.23 2.78 18.00

15.42 2.79 18.21

15.63 2.80 18.43

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

11.80 2.61 14.41

12.21 2.70 14.91

12.45 2.72 15.17

12.81 2.73 15.55

13.06 2.74 15.81

13.16 2.76 15.92

13.37 2.77 16.14

13.63 2.78 16.41

13.75 2.79 16.54

13.76 2.80 16.56

13.78 2.81 16.59

1.66

1.68

1.65

1.48

1.40

1.48

1.46

1.39

1.47

1.65

1.83

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 191

Chinese Coarse Gra ain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

24.00

24.68

24.64

24.61

(Million Hectares) 24.56 24.51 24.47

24.43

24.39

24.36

24.32

4.38

5.00

5.07

5.13

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.19 5.25 5.32

5.37

5.43

5.49

5.55

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

105.20 52.91 158.11

123.39 34.06 157.45

124.82 33.28 158.10

126.20 33.21 159.41

(Million Metric Tons) 127.50 128.79 130.07 33.04 33.09 32.78 160.54 161.89 162.85

131.32 32.69 164.01

132.54 32.73 165.27

133.74 32.86 166.60

134.97 33.03 168.00

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

93.00 27.00 34.06 154.06

93.89 27.22 33.28 154.39

94.65 27.67 33.21 155.53

96.34 28.10 33.04 157.48

98.56 28.69 33.09 160.35

100.80 29.20 32.78 162.77

102.98 29.61 32.69 165.28

105.17 29.87 32.73 167.76

107.30 30.22 32.86 170.38

109.26 30.46 33.03 172.75

111.15 30.56 33.20 174.91

4.05

3.07

2.56

1.93

0.20

-0.89

-2.43

-3.75

-5.11

-6.14

-6.92

Barley Area Harvested

1.00

1.04

1.02

1.01

(Million Hectares) 1.00 0.99 1.00

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.04

Yield

3.00

3.05

3.09

3.14

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.18 3.23 3.28

3.33

3.38

3.43

3.48

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3.00 0.45 3.45

3.17 0.25 3.43

3.15 0.26 3.42

3.16 0.27 3.43

(Million Metric Tons) 3.18 3.22 3.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 3.46 3.51 3.57

3.33 0.31 3.65

3.41 0.32 3.74

3.51 0.33 3.84

3.63 0.34 3.97

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.70 4.90 0.25 5.85

0.69 5.07 0.26 6.02

0.67 5.08 0.27 6.02

0.65 5.10 0.28 6.03

0.64 5.13 0.29 6.06

0.63 5.20 0.30 6.14

0.63 5.36 0.31 6.30

0.62 5.58 0.32 6.52

0.60 5.78 0.33 6.72

0.59 5.96 0.34 6.90

0.58 6.17 0.35 7.10

-2.40

-2.59

-2.60

-2.60

-2.60

-2.63

-2.73

-2.88

-2.98

-3.06

-3.14

Corn Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

192 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Eastern European Coarse C Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

6.39

6.73

6.80

Yield

2.61

4.01

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

16.66 7.21 23.87

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

6.81

(Million Hectares) 6.81 6.83 6.86

6.90

6.93

6.96

6.99

4.06

4.10

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.15 4.19 4.24

4.28

4.33

4.37

4.42

27.04 2.29 29.32

27.62 2.98 30.60

27.95 3.41 31.37

(Million Metric Tons) 28.25 28.64 29.08 3.46 3.50 3.55 31.71 32.15 32.63

29.54 3.59 33.12

29.98 3.63 33.62

30.42 3.68 34.10

30.90 3.73 34.62

17.05 4.79 2.29 24.12

19.72 4.78 2.98 27.48

20.02 4.78 3.41 28.21

20.40 4.78 3.46 28.64

20.60 4.79 3.50 28.90

20.91 4.80 3.55 29.25

21.18 4.80 3.59 29.57

21.43 4.81 3.63 29.87

21.81 4.81 3.68 30.30

22.13 4.82 3.73 30.67

22.52 4.82 3.77 31.12

-0.25

1.84

2.39

2.73

2.82

2.90

3.06

3.25

3.31

3.43

3.51

Barley Area Harvested

2.96

2.94

2.95

2.95

(Million Hectares) 2.97 2.98 2.98

2.99

3.00

3.01

3.01

Yield

2.65

2.83

2.87

2.90

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.93 2.96 2.99

3.02

3.05

3.08

3.12

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

7.86 0.83 8.68

8.33 0.68 9.00

8.45 0.70 9.15

8.56 0.71 9.26

(Million Metric Tons) 8.69 8.80 8.92 0.72 0.73 0.75 9.41 9.54 9.66

9.03 0.76 9.79

9.15 0.77 9.92

9.27 0.78 10.06

9.39 0.80 10.19

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

5.85 2.83 0.68 9.36

5.99 2.84 0.70 9.52

6.10 2.86 0.71 9.67

6.18 2.86 0.72 9.76

6.28 2.87 0.73 9.89

6.39 2.88 0.75 10.03

6.51 2.89 0.76 10.16

6.65 2.90 0.77 10.32

6.79 2.90 0.78 10.47

6.97 2.90 0.80 10.67

7.17 2.89 0.81 10.87

0.78

1.41

2.37

3.45

4.53

5.63

6.76

7.91

9.08

10.30

11.53

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 193

European Union Co oarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

4.17

4.09

4.09

Yield

8.89

8.76

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

37.06 4.00 41.06

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4.08

(Million Hectares) 4.09 4.07 4.07

4.05

4.06

4.24

4.23

8.85

8.95

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 9.05 9.15 9.24

9.34

9.44

9.53

9.63

35.84 4.80 40.64

36.23 4.04 40.27

36.56 3.69 40.25

(Million Metric Tons) 36.98 37.23 37.63 3.49 3.37 3.44 40.47 40.60 41.07

37.87 3.48 41.34

38.29 3.49 41.78

40.44 3.16 43.59

40.76 4.36 45.12

29.10 9.16 4.80 43.06

29.33 9.36 4.04 42.73

29.15 9.54 3.69 42.37

29.34 9.68 3.49 42.52

29.62 9.85 3.37 42.83

29.60 9.99 3.44 43.03

29.82 10.17 3.48 43.47

29.98 10.33 3.49 43.81

30.55 10.51 3.16 44.21

30.94 10.68 4.36 45.98

31.36 10.87 5.55 47.78

-2.00

-2.10

-2.11

-2.27

-2.35

-2.43

-2.40

-2.46

-2.43

-2.39

-2.66

10.57

10.63

10.56

10.58

(Million Hectares) 10.55 10.55 10.53

10.51

10.49

11.00

10.97

4.88

4.85

4.85

4.90

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.95 5.00 5.04

5.09

5.14

5.19

5.24

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

51.59 10.10 61.69

51.58 9.60 61.18

51.23 9.03 60.26

51.84 8.35 60.18

(Million Metric Tons) 52.21 52.68 53.09 8.19 8.00 8.12 60.40 60.68 61.22

53.53 8.16 61.68

53.92 8.18 62.10

57.08 8.37 65.45

57.49 11.36 68.85

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

30.40 10.79 9.60 50.79

30.54 10.83 9.03 50.41

30.13 10.89 8.35 49.37

30.03 10.93 8.19 49.15

29.97 10.97 8.00 48.93

29.72 11.01 8.12 48.85

29.69 11.06 8.16 48.91

29.67 11.10 8.18 48.95

29.66 11.13 8.37 49.16

29.85 11.19 11.36 52.40

29.97 11.24 14.30 55.51

10.90

10.77

10.89

11.04

11.47

11.83

12.31

12.73

12.94

13.05

13.34

Net Trade

Barley Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

194 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

South African Coars rse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

3.40

3.48

3.55

Yield

2.50

2.56

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

3.58

(Million Hectares) 3.59 3.60 3.61

3.61

3.61

3.61

3.61

2.57

2.60

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.63 2.67 2.70

2.73

2.77

2.80

2.84

8.50 2.23 10.73

8.92 1.48 10.39

9.10 1.47 10.57

9.31 1.48 10.79

(Million Metric Tons) 9.47 9.61 9.74 1.51 1.52 1.54 10.97 11.13 11.28

9.87 1.54 11.41

10.00 1.55 11.55

10.12 1.57 11.69

10.25 1.57 11.82

8.30 1.48 9.78

8.27 1.47 9.74

8.35 1.48 9.83

8.43 1.51 9.93

8.51 1.52 10.03

8.59 1.54 10.13

8.67 1.54 10.21

8.75 1.55 10.30

8.84 1.57 10.41

8.92 1.57 10.49

8.99 1.58 10.57

0.95

0.65

0.74

0.86

0.94

1.00

1.06

1.11

1.15

1.19

1.25

Sorghum Area Harvested

0.13

0.14

0.15

0.14

(Million Hectares) 0.14 0.14 0.14

0.14

0.13

0.13

0.13

Yield

1.92

1.97

2.01

2.04

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.08 2.12 2.16

2.20

2.24

2.27

2.31

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.25 0.00 0.25

0.28 0.00 0.28

0.29 0.00 0.29

0.29 0.00 0.29

(Million Metric Tons) 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.30 0.30

0.30 0.00 0.30

0.30 0.00 0.30

0.30 0.00 0.30

0.30 0.00 0.30

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.28 0.00 0.28

0.31 0.00 0.31

0.34 0.00 0.34

0.37 0.00 0.37

0.39 0.00 0.39

0.42 0.00 0.42

0.45 0.00 0.45

0.47 0.00 0.47

0.50 0.00 0.50

0.53 0.00 0.53

0.56 0.00 0.56

-0.03

-0.03

-0.05

-0.07

-0.10

-0.12

-0.15

-0.17

-0.20

-0.23

-0.25

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 195

Ukrainian Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

1.20

1.17

1.20

2.92

2.70

2.72

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.21

(Million Hectares) 1.20 1.19 1.18

1.17

1.17

1.16

1.15

2.74

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.77 2.79 2.81

2.83

2.85

2.88

2.90

3.32 1.22 4.54

3.33 1.27 4.60

3.33 1.32 4.65

3.35 1.37 4.71

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3.50 0.21 3.71

3.15 0.92 4.06

3.27 0.97 4.24

3.32 1.02 4.33

(Million Metric Tons) 3.32 3.32 3.31 1.07 1.12 1.17 4.39 4.43 4.48

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.70 0.50 0.92 3.12

1.78 0.51 0.97 3.25

1.84 0.53 1.02 3.38

1.95 0.54 1.07 3.56

2.06 0.54 1.12 3.71

2.16 0.54 1.17 3.86

2.25 0.54 1.22 4.00

2.33 0.54 1.27 4.13

2.37 0.54 1.32 4.23

2.38 0.54 1.37 4.29

2.39 0.54 1.42 4.35

0.59

0.81

0.86

0.78

0.68

0.57

0.48

0.41

0.37

0.36

0.36

4.00

3.98

4.01

4.00

(Million Hectares) 4.02 4.02 4.03

4.05

4.06

4.09

4.10

1.73

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.75 1.77 1.79

1.80

1.82

1.84

1.86

7.31 1.05 8.36

7.41 1.00 8.41

7.52 0.90 8.42

7.63 0.80 8.43

Net Trade Barley Area Harvested Yield

1.63

1.70

1.72

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

6.50 0.90 7.40

6.77 0.75 7.52

6.89 0.80 7.69

6.94 0.85 7.79

(Million Metric Tons) 7.04 7.11 7.20 0.90 0.95 1.00 7.94 8.06 8.20

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4.20 1.80 0.75 6.75

4.19 1.81 0.80 6.81

4.25 1.82 0.85 6.92

4.47 1.82 0.90 7.20

4.77 1.83 0.95 7.55

5.04 1.83 1.00 7.87

5.29 1.84 1.05 8.18

5.49 1.84 1.00 8.33

5.60 1.85 0.90 8.35

5.65 1.85 0.80 8.30

5.67 1.86 0.70 8.23

0.65

0.72

0.77

0.59

0.39

0.19

0.02

0.03

0.06

0.12

0.20

Rye Area Harvested

0.74

0.72

0.72

0.73

(Million Hectares) 0.73 0.73 0.73

0.73

0.73

0.73

0.74

Yield

1.86

1.89

1.93

1.97

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.01 2.05 2.08

2.12

2.16

2.20

2.24

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.38 0.17 1.54

1.37 0.17 1.53

1.39 0.17 1.56

1.43 0.17 1.60

(Million Metric Tons) 1.46 1.49 1.52 0.17 0.18 0.18 1.63 1.66 1.70

1.55 0.18 1.73

1.58 0.18 1.76

1.61 0.18 1.80

1.65 0.19 1.83

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.07 1.20 0.17 1.43

0.08 1.19 0.17 1.44

0.08 1.18 0.17 1.43

0.08 1.17 0.17 1.43

0.09 1.16 0.18 1.43

0.09 1.15 0.18 1.43

0.10 1.15 0.18 1.42

0.10 1.14 0.18 1.42

0.10 1.13 0.18 1.42

0.10 1.13 0.19 1.42

0.10 1.12 0.19 1.41

0.11

0.10

0.12

0.17

0.20

0.24

0.27

0.31

0.34

0.38

0.42

Net Trade

Net Trade

196 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Israeli Coarse Grain n Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.45 0.10 0.08 0.63

0.43 0.10 0.08 0.61

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.00 0.08 0.08

(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.00 0.08 0.08

0.44 0.10 0.08 0.61

0.45 0.10 0.08 0.62

0.45 0.10 0.08 0.63

0.46 0.10 0.08 0.63

0.46 0.10 0.08 0.64

0.46 0.10 0.08 0.64

0.47 0.10 0.08 0.64

0.47 0.10 0.08 0.65

0.48 0.10 0.08 0.65

-0.55

-0.53

-0.54

-0.55

-0.55

-0.56

-0.56

-0.56

-0.57

-0.57

-0.58

Sorghum Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.01

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.15 0.00 0.01 0.16

0.16 0.00 0.01 0.17

0.17 0.00 0.01 0.18

0.17 0.00 0.01 0.18

0.18 0.00 0.01 0.19

0.19 0.00 0.01 0.19

0.19 0.00 0.01 0.20

0.20 0.00 0.01 0.21

0.21 0.00 0.01 0.22

0.23 0.00 0.01 0.23

0.24 0.00 0.01 0.25

-0.15

-0.16

-0.16

-0.17

-0.18

-0.19

-0.19

-0.20

-0.21

-0.23

-0.24

Barley Area Harvested

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

(Million Hectares) 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

Yield

0.60

0.61

0.62

0.63

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.64 0.65 0.66

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.70

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.01 0.07 0.08

0.01 0.07 0.07

0.01 0.07 0.07

0.01 0.07 0.07

(Million Metric Tons) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.01 0.07 0.07

0.01 0.07 0.07

0.01 0.07 0.07

0.01 0.07 0.07

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.41 0.00 0.07 0.48

0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50

0.44 0.00 0.07 0.51

0.44 0.00 0.07 0.50

0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50

0.44 0.00 0.07 0.50

0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50

0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50

0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50

0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50

0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50

-0.40

-0.43

-0.43

-0.43

-0.43

-0.43

-0.43

-0.43

-0.43

-0.43

-0.42

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 197

Japanese Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.00 1.16 1.16

0.00 1.11 1.11

0.00 1.08 1.08

0.00 1.08 1.08

(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08

0.00 1.08 1.08

0.00 1.08 1.08

0.00 1.08 1.08

0.00 1.08 1.08

16.05 1.11 17.16

15.99 1.08 17.08

15.96 1.08 17.03

15.86 1.08 16.93

15.78 1.08 16.86

15.81 1.08 16.89

15.76 1.08 16.84

15.65 1.08 16.73

15.61 1.08 16.69

15.64 1.08 16.72

15.65 1.08 16.73

-16.00

-15.97

-15.95

-15.86

-15.78

-15.81

-15.76

-15.65

-15.61

-15.64

-15.65

Sorghum Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

0.00 0.35 0.35

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.10 0.35 2.45

1.94 0.35 2.29

1.98 0.35 2.32

1.91 0.35 2.26

1.90 0.35 2.25

1.96 0.35 2.31

1.96 0.35 2.31

1.91 0.35 2.26

1.90 0.35 2.25

1.92 0.35 2.27

1.93 0.35 2.28

-2.10

-1.94

-1.98

-1.91

-1.90

-1.96

-1.96

-1.91

-1.90

-1.92

-1.93

Barley Area Harvested

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

(Million Hectares) 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.05

Yield

2.81

2.84

2.87

2.91

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.94 2.98 3.01

3.04

3.08

3.11

3.14

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.16 0.68 0.84

0.17 0.60 0.78

0.18 0.63 0.81

0.19 0.64 0.83

(Million Metric Tons) 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.84 0.84 0.85

0.18 0.67 0.85

0.18 0.67 0.85

0.17 0.67 0.84

0.16 0.68 0.84

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.84 0.60 2.44

1.75 0.63 2.38

1.78 0.64 2.43

1.78 0.65 2.43

1.79 0.65 2.44

1.82 0.66 2.48

1.83 0.67 2.50

1.82 0.67 2.49

1.82 0.67 2.49

1.83 0.68 2.51

1.84 0.68 2.52

-1.60

-1.60

-1.62

-1.60

-1.61

-1.64

-1.65

-1.64

-1.64

-1.66

-1.68

Corn Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

198 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Russian Coarse Gra ain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0.90

0.92

0.88

2.22

1.95

1.96

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.90

(Million Hectares) 0.91 0.91 0.90

0.90

0.89

0.88

0.87

1.98

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.00 2.02 2.04

2.05

2.07

2.09

2.11

1.84 0.24 2.08

1.84 0.24 2.08

1.84 0.25 2.09

1.83 0.25 2.09

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.00 0.10 2.10

1.79 0.20 1.99

1.73 0.21 1.94

1.79 0.21 2.00

(Million Metric Tons) 1.82 1.83 1.84 0.22 0.22 0.23 2.04 2.05 2.07

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.40 0.70 0.20 2.30

1.48 0.63 0.21 2.32

1.60 0.61 0.21 2.42

1.66 0.63 0.22 2.51

1.73 0.64 0.22 2.59

1.78 0.64 0.23 2.65

1.79 0.64 0.24 2.66

1.81 0.64 0.24 2.70

1.83 0.64 0.25 2.72

1.85 0.64 0.25 2.74

1.88 0.64 0.26 2.78

-0.20

-0.32

-0.48

-0.51

-0.55

-0.59

-0.60

-0.62

-0.64

-0.66

-0.69

9.30

8.72

8.70

8.78

(Million Hectares) 8.88 8.92 8.97

9.02

9.06

9.10

9.10

1.37

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.39 1.40 1.41

1.42

1.43

1.45

1.46

12.83 1.12 13.95

12.99 1.14 14.13

13.15 1.16 14.31

13.27 1.18 14.45

Net Trade Barley Area Harvested Yield

1.40

1.35

1.36

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

13.00 0.32 13.32

11.77 1.32 13.09

11.85 1.20 13.05

12.07 1.18 13.25

(Million Metric Tons) 12.31 12.47 12.64 1.06 1.08 1.10 13.37 13.55 13.74

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

9.70 2.26 1.32 13.28

10.03 2.25 1.20 13.48

10.15 2.25 1.18 13.58

10.34 2.24 1.06 13.64

10.54 2.24 1.08 13.86

10.75 2.24 1.10 14.08

10.97 2.23 1.12 14.32

11.14 2.23 1.14 14.51

11.24 2.23 1.16 14.63

11.32 2.23 1.18 14.73

11.42 2.23 1.23 14.88

0.20

-0.39

-0.53

-0.39

-0.49

-0.53

-0.58

-0.57

-0.50

-0.41

-0.43

Rye Area Harvested

4.13

4.09

4.08

4.08

(Million Hectares) 4.07 4.06 4.06

4.06

4.06

4.07

4.08

Yield

1.40

1.41

1.41

1.42

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.42 1.43 1.43

1.43

1.44

1.44

1.45

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

5.80 0.35 6.14

5.75 0.35 6.10

5.76 0.35 6.11

5.78 0.35 6.13

(Million Metric Tons) 5.78 5.79 5.81 0.35 0.35 0.35 6.12 6.13 6.15

5.83 0.35 6.17

5.84 0.35 6.19

5.87 0.35 6.22

5.90 0.35 6.25

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.60 5.03 0.35 5.98

0.62 4.96 0.35 5.92

0.61 4.88 0.35 5.84

0.63 4.87 0.35 5.85

0.64 4.85 0.35 5.84

0.64 4.84 0.35 5.83

0.65 4.82 0.35 5.82

0.66 4.81 0.35 5.81

0.65 4.79 0.35 5.80

0.65 4.78 0.35 5.78

0.64 4.77 0.35 5.77

0.16

0.18

0.27

0.28

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.36

0.39

0.44

0.49

Net Trade

Net Trade

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 199

Other Former Sovie et Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0.81

0.80

0.81

2.12

2.13

2.15

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.81

(Million Hectares) 0.81 0.80 0.80

0.80

0.79

0.79

0.79

2.17

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.18 2.20 2.22

2.24

2.25

2.27

2.29

1.78 0.45 2.24

1.79 0.47 2.26

1.79 0.49 2.29

1.80 0.51 2.31

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.71 0.45 2.15

1.71 0.33 2.05

1.73 0.35 2.08

1.75 0.37 2.13

(Million Metric Tons) 1.76 1.77 1.77 0.39 0.41 0.43 2.16 2.18 2.21

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.48 0.35 0.33 2.16

1.44 0.36 0.35 2.15

1.38 0.36 0.37 2.11

1.37 0.36 0.39 2.13

1.33 0.37 0.41 2.11

1.28 0.37 0.43 2.08

1.22 0.37 0.45 2.04

1.24 0.37 0.47 2.08

1.27 0.37 0.49 2.13

1.17 0.37 0.51 2.06

1.15 0.37 0.53 2.05

-0.04

-0.10

-0.03

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.17

0.15

0.13

0.23

0.26

3.93

3.91

3.96

4.06

(Million Hectares) 4.06 4.00 3.93

3.88

3.81

3.74

3.64

1.55

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.57 1.58 1.60

1.61

1.63

1.64

1.66

6.25 1.35 7.60

6.19 1.36 7.55

6.13 1.37 7.50

6.03 1.37 7.39

Net Trade Barley Area Harvested Yield

1.51

1.52

1.54

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

5.92 1.18 7.10

5.95 1.33 7.28

6.08 1.29 7.37

6.30 1.31 7.60

(Million Metric Tons) 6.35 6.32 6.28 1.34 1.35 1.35 7.70 7.68 7.63

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4.31 1.16 1.33 6.81

4.02 1.15 1.29 6.46

4.08 1.16 1.31 6.54

4.20 1.16 1.34 6.70

4.25 1.17 1.35 6.77

4.24 1.18 1.35 6.77

4.23 1.18 1.35 6.76

4.26 1.19 1.36 6.81

4.27 1.20 1.37 6.84

4.26 1.21 1.37 6.84

4.25 1.22 1.37 6.83

0.29

0.82

0.83

0.90

0.92

0.90

0.87

0.79

0.72

0.66

0.56

Rye Area Harvested

1.23

1.22

1.22

1.22

(Million Hectares) 1.22 1.22 1.22

1.22

1.22

1.22

1.22

Yield

1.83

1.85

1.88

1.90

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.93 1.95 1.98

2.00

2.03

2.05

2.08

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.25 0.35 2.60

2.26 0.35 2.62

2.29 0.36 2.65

2.32 0.36 2.68

(Million Metric Tons) 2.35 2.37 2.40 0.36 0.36 0.37 2.71 2.74 2.77

2.43 0.37 2.80

2.46 0.37 2.84

2.50 0.38 2.87

2.53 0.38 2.91

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.09 1.38 0.35 2.83

1.10 1.39 0.36 2.85

1.11 1.40 0.36 2.86

1.13 1.40 0.36 2.90

1.14 1.41 0.36 2.92

1.15 1.42 0.37 2.94

1.16 1.43 0.37 2.96

1.18 1.44 0.37 2.99

1.19 1.45 0.38 3.01

1.19 1.46 0.38 3.03

1.20 1.47 0.38 3.06

-0.23

-0.23

-0.22

-0.21

-0.21

-0.20

-0.19

-0.19

-0.18

-0.16

-0.15

Net Trade

Net Trade

200 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Algerian Coarse Gra rain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

0.00

0.00

0.00

Yield

1.00

2.02

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.00 0.05 0.05

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.00

(Million Hectares) 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2.04

2.06

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.08 2.10 2.12

2.14

2.17

2.19

2.21

0.00 0.05 0.05

0.00 0.05 0.05

0.00 0.05 0.05

(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

0.00 0.05 0.05

0.00 0.05 0.05

0.00 0.05 0.05

0.00 0.05 0.05

1.50 0.05 1.55

1.53 0.05 1.58

1.56 0.05 1.61

1.59 0.05 1.64

1.62 0.05 1.67

1.66 0.05 1.71

1.70 0.05 1.75

1.75 0.05 1.80

1.80 0.05 1.85

1.85 0.05 1.90

1.90 0.05 1.95

-1.50

-1.53

-1.56

-1.59

-1.62

-1.66

-1.70

-1.75

-1.80

-1.85

-1.90

Barley Area Harvested

0.20

0.64

0.74

0.74

(Million Hectares) 0.74 0.74 0.73

0.73

0.73

0.73

0.73

Yield

0.80

0.82

0.84

0.86

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.88 0.90 0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.16 0.00 0.16

0.53 0.00 0.53

0.62 0.00 0.62

0.64 0.00 0.64

(Million Metric Tons) 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.66 0.68

0.69 0.00 0.69

0.70 0.00 0.70

0.72 0.00 0.72

0.73 0.00 0.73

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.16 0.00 1.16

1.17 0.00 1.17

1.18 0.00 1.18

1.19 0.00 1.19

1.20 0.00 1.20

1.22 0.00 1.22

1.23 0.00 1.23

1.25 0.00 1.25

1.27 0.00 1.27

1.29 0.00 1.29

1.31 0.00 1.31

-1.00

-0.64

-0.56

-0.56

-0.55

-0.56

-0.56

-0.56

-0.57

-0.57

-0.57

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 201

Egyptian Coarse Grrain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

0.75

0.76

0.77

Yield

7.73

7.80

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

5.80 0.40 6.20

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.78

(Million Hectares) 0.79 0.79 0.80

0.81

0.81

0.82

0.82

7.87

7.95

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 8.02 8.09 8.16

8.24

8.31

8.38

8.45

5.93 0.40 6.33

6.07 0.40 6.47

6.19 0.41 6.60

(Million Metric Tons) 6.31 6.42 6.53 0.41 0.41 0.42 6.72 6.84 6.95

6.64 0.42 7.06

6.74 0.43 7.17

6.84 0.43 7.27

6.95 0.43 7.38

10.50 0.40 10.90

10.51 0.40 10.91

10.75 0.41 11.16

11.01 0.41 11.42

11.24 0.41 11.66

11.47 0.42 11.89

11.71 0.42 12.13

11.96 0.43 12.39

12.22 0.43 12.65

12.48 0.43 12.92

12.76 0.43 13.20

-4.70

-4.58

-4.69

-4.82

-4.94

-5.05

-5.19

-5.33

-5.48

-5.64

-5.82

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Nigerian Coarse Gra rain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Sorghum Area Harvested

6.60

6.60

6.60

6.60

(Million Hectares) 6.60 6.60 6.60

6.60

6.60

6.60

6.60

Yield

1.09

1.11

1.13

1.15

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.17 1.19 1.21

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.30

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

7.20 0.20 7.40

7.33 0.20 7.53

7.46 0.20 7.66

7.59 0.20 7.79

(Million Metric Tons) 7.73 7.87 8.01 0.20 0.20 0.20 7.93 8.07 8.21

8.15 0.20 8.35

8.30 0.20 8.50

8.45 0.20 8.65

8.60 0.20 8.80

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

7.20 0.20 7.40

7.33 0.20 7.53

7.46 0.20 7.66

7.59 0.20 7.79

7.73 0.20 7.93

7.87 0.20 8.07

8.01 0.20 8.21

8.15 0.20 8.35

8.30 0.20 8.50

8.45 0.20 8.65

8.60 0.20 8.80

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net Trade

04/05

202 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other African Coars se Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

20.29

20.10

20.08

20.11

(Million Hectares) 20.14 20.19 20.23

20.29

20.37

20.46

20.54

1.25

1.28

1.29

1.31

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.32 1.33 1.35

1.36

1.37

1.39

1.40

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

25.40 1.97 27.37

25.73 1.53 27.26

25.95 1.50 27.45

26.25 1.53 27.79

(Million Metric Tons) 26.57 26.89 27.22 1.60 1.68 1.76 28.17 28.57 28.98

27.57 1.84 29.41

27.96 1.93 29.89

28.35 2.02 30.38

28.75 2.12 30.87

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.68 25.45 1.53 29.65

2.64 25.70 1.50 29.84

2.64 25.97 1.53 30.14

2.66 26.32 1.60 30.59

2.68 26.68 1.68 31.04

2.68 27.10 1.76 31.54

2.69 27.50 1.84 32.03

2.70 27.88 1.93 32.51

2.71 28.31 2.02 33.04

2.71 28.78 2.12 33.62

2.72 29.27 2.22 34.21

-2.29

-2.58

-2.69

-2.80

-2.87

-2.97

-3.05

-3.09

-3.15

-3.24

-3.34

Barley Area Harvested

3.51

3.83

3.97

4.02

(Million Hectares) 4.05 4.07 4.08

4.09

4.10

4.11

4.11

Yield

0.73

0.99

1.00

1.01

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.02 1.03 1.04

1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.58 0.59 3.17

3.81 0.23 4.04

3.98 0.40 4.38

4.07 0.51 4.57

(Million Metric Tons) 4.14 4.20 4.24 0.56 0.59 0.62 4.70 4.79 4.86

4.29 0.64 4.93

4.34 0.66 5.00

4.39 0.68 5.07

4.43 0.70 5.13

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.10 2.85 0.23 5.17

2.21 3.01 0.40 5.62

2.28 3.21 0.51 6.00

2.29 3.36 0.56 6.21

2.35 3.42 0.59 6.37

2.42 3.45 0.62 6.49

2.47 3.49 0.64 6.60

2.54 3.51 0.66 6.71

2.61 3.52 0.68 6.81

2.70 3.52 0.70 6.92

2.77 3.54 0.71 7.03

-2.00

-1.59

-1.62

-1.64

-1.67

-1.71

-1.74

-1.77

-1.81

-1.86

-1.89

Corn Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 203

Saudi Arabian Coarrse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Barley Area Harvested

0.06

0.06

0.06

Yield

7.02

7.02

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.40 0.90 1.30

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.06

(Million Hectares) 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.06

7.02

7.02

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 7.02 7.02 7.03

7.03

7.03

7.04

7.04

0.40 0.40 0.80

0.40 0.39 0.79

0.40 0.39 0.79

(Million Metric Tons) 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.79 0.79 0.80

0.40 0.40 0.80

0.40 0.41 0.81

0.40 0.40 0.81

0.40 0.41 0.82

5.70 0.40 6.10

5.38 0.39 5.76

5.46 0.39 5.85

5.50 0.39 5.89

5.57 0.39 5.96

5.62 0.40 6.02

5.70 0.40 6.10

5.79 0.41 6.20

5.90 0.40 6.30

6.03 0.41 6.44

6.18 0.42 6.60

-4.80

-4.96

-5.06

-5.10

-5.16

-5.23

-5.30

-5.40

-5.50

-5.63

-5.78

204 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other Middle Easter ern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

0.96

0.97

0.97

Yield

3.42

3.44

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3.29 0.53 3.82

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.98

(Million Hectares) 0.98 0.98 0.99

0.99

1.00

1.00

1.01

3.51

3.58

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.65 3.72 3.79

3.86

3.93

4.00

4.07

3.33 0.48 3.81

3.42 0.45 3.87

3.51 0.43 3.94

(Million Metric Tons) 3.58 3.66 3.75 0.42 0.42 0.42 4.00 4.08 4.17

3.83 0.42 4.25

3.92 0.42 4.35

4.01 0.43 4.44

4.11 0.43 4.54

7.65 1.50 0.48 9.63

7.58 1.56 0.45 9.59

7.67 1.60 0.43 9.70

7.72 1.63 0.42 9.78

7.81 1.65 0.42 9.88

7.89 1.69 0.42 10.00

7.97 1.73 0.42 10.12

8.07 1.77 0.42 10.26

8.17 1.80 0.43 10.40

8.28 1.83 0.43 10.54

8.38 1.87 0.44 10.69

-5.81

-5.78

-5.82

-5.84

-5.88

-5.92

-5.96

-6.00

-6.05

-6.11

-6.15

Barley Area Harvested

7.19

7.19

7.21

7.21

(Million Hectares) 7.23 7.23 7.23

7.23

7.23

7.23

7.23

Yield

1.39

1.44

1.47

1.49

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.52 1.54 1.57

1.59

1.62

1.64

1.67

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

10.02 0.93 10.95

10.36 1.02 11.38

10.57 1.06 11.63

10.75 1.10 11.86

(Million Metric Tons) 10.95 11.14 11.32 1.14 1.18 1.22 12.09 12.32 12.54

11.50 1.26 12.76

11.69 1.30 12.99

11.87 1.34 13.20

12.04 1.38 13.42

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

10.10 2.05 1.02 13.17

9.98 2.55 1.06 13.60

10.08 2.68 1.10 13.86

9.95 3.00 1.14 14.09

10.00 3.16 1.18 14.34

10.08 3.29 1.22 14.59

10.13 3.43 1.26 14.82

10.22 3.54 1.30 15.06

10.31 3.65 1.34 15.30

10.47 3.69 1.38 15.54

10.56 3.80 1.41 15.77

-2.23

-2.22

-2.23

-2.23

-2.25

-2.27

-2.28

-2.30

-2.32

-2.34

-2.35

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 205

Brazilian Coarse Grrain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

13.50

13.46

13.42

13.40

(Million Hectares) 13.37 13.33 13.30

13.28

13.25

13.22

13.19

2.72

2.65

2.68

2.72

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.75 2.79 2.83

2.86

2.90

2.94

2.98

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

36.70 1.00 37.70

35.66 2.74 38.40

36.02 2.69 38.71

36.43 2.70 39.13

(Million Metric Tons) 36.82 37.21 37.61 2.72 2.73 2.75 39.54 39.94 40.36

38.02 2.77 40.79

38.43 2.78 41.22

38.84 2.80 41.64

39.26 2.82 42.08

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

35.00 2.74 37.74

36.00 2.69 38.69

36.30 2.70 39.00

36.74 2.72 39.46

37.08 2.73 39.82

37.52 2.75 40.27

37.89 2.77 40.65

38.25 2.78 41.03

38.75 2.80 41.55

39.16 2.82 41.98

39.59 2.83 42.42

-0.04

-0.30

-0.29

-0.33

-0.28

-0.33

-0.30

-0.24

-0.33

-0.34

-0.35

Barley Area Harvested

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

(Million Hectares) 0.15 0.15 0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.15

Yield

2.00

2.03

2.06

2.09

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.12 2.15 2.19

2.22

2.25

2.29

2.32

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.30 0.05 0.35

0.30 0.05 0.35

0.31 0.05 0.36

0.31 0.05 0.36

(Million Metric Tons) 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.37 0.37 0.38

0.33 0.05 0.38

0.34 0.05 0.39

0.34 0.05 0.39

0.35 0.05 0.40

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.40 0.05 0.45

0.41 0.05 0.46

0.43 0.05 0.48

0.44 0.05 0.49

0.46 0.05 0.51

0.48 0.05 0.53

0.49 0.05 0.54

0.51 0.05 0.56

0.53 0.05 0.58

0.55 0.05 0.60

0.57 0.05 0.62

-0.10

-0.11

-0.12

-0.13

-0.14

-0.15

-0.16

-0.18

-0.19

-0.20

-0.22

Corn Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

206 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Mexican Coarse Gra rain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

7.80

7.88

7.93

2.37

2.42

2.46

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

7.96

(Million Hectares) 7.98 7.98 7.99

7.99

7.99

7.99

7.99

2.51

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.55 2.60 2.64

2.69

2.73

2.78

2.82

21.48 2.91 24.39

21.84 2.91 24.75

22.19 2.91 25.10

22.54 2.91 25.45

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

18.50 2.34 20.84

19.05 2.72 21.77

19.53 2.85 22.37

19.95 2.89 22.84

(Million Metric Tons) 20.35 20.73 21.11 2.90 2.91 2.91 23.25 23.64 24.02

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

9.30 15.10 2.72 27.12

9.50 15.24 2.85 27.58

9.89 15.38 2.89 28.17

10.20 15.54 2.90 28.64

10.49 15.69 2.91 29.09

10.94 15.85 2.91 29.70

11.43 16.00 2.91 30.34

11.85 16.17 2.91 30.92

12.34 16.33 2.91 31.58

12.89 16.50 2.91 32.30

13.52 16.67 2.91 33.09

-6.29

-5.81

-5.80

-5.80

-5.83

-6.05

-6.32

-6.53

-6.83

-7.20

-7.64

Sorghum Area Harvested

2.00

2.02

2.01

2.00

(Million Hectares) 2.00 2.01 2.01

2.01

2.01

2.01

2.01

Yield

3.20

3.21

3.23

3.24

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.25 3.27 3.28

3.30

3.31

3.32

3.34

(Million Metric Tons) 6.52 6.55 6.59 0.89 0.89 0.89 7.42 7.45 7.48

6.62 0.89 7.51

6.65 0.89 7.54

6.68 0.89 7.58

6.72 0.89 7.61

Net Trade

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Barley Area Harvested

6.40 1.21 7.61

6.50 1.01 7.52

6.48 0.91 7.39

6.49 0.90 7.39

10.10 1.01 11.11

10.34 0.91 11.25

10.44 0.90 11.33

10.59 0.89 11.49

10.67 0.89 11.56

10.88 0.89 11.77

11.07 0.89 11.96

11.16 0.89 12.05

11.29 0.89 12.18

11.52 0.89 12.41

11.74 0.89 12.64

-3.50

-3.73

-3.94

-4.10

-4.14

-4.32

-4.48

-4.53

-4.64

-4.83

-5.02

0.25

0.25

0.25

0.25

(Million Hectares) 0.25 0.26 0.26

0.26

0.26

0.26

0.26

2.14

2.17

2.19

2.21

Yield

2.00

2.02

2.04

2.06

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.08 2.10 2.12

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.50 0.06 0.56

0.51 0.06 0.56

0.51 0.06 0.57

0.52 0.06 0.58

(Million Metric Tons) 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.58 0.59 0.60

0.55 0.06 0.61

0.56 0.06 0.61

0.57 0.06 0.62

0.57 0.06 0.63

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.15 0.55 0.06 0.76

0.15 0.57 0.06 0.77

0.15 0.58 0.06 0.79

0.15 0.60 0.06 0.80

0.15 0.61 0.06 0.82

0.15 0.63 0.06 0.84

0.15 0.65 0.06 0.85

0.15 0.66 0.06 0.87

0.15 0.68 0.06 0.89

0.15 0.70 0.06 0.91

0.15 0.72 0.06 0.92

-0.20

-0.21

-0.22

-0.23

-0.24

-0.24

-0.25

-0.26

-0.27

-0.28

-0.29

Net Trade

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 207

Other Latin America an Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

4.89

4.88

4.91

Yield

1.90

1.94

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

9.29 0.99 10.28

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4.92

(Million Hectares) 4.92 4.92 4.93

4.93

4.94

4.95

4.96

1.98

2.02

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.07 2.11 2.15

2.20

2.25

2.29

2.34

9.47 1.07 10.54

9.72 1.06 10.78

9.96 1.07 11.04

(Million Metric Tons) 10.16 10.37 10.61 1.10 1.13 1.16 11.26 11.50 11.77

10.85 1.19 12.04

11.09 1.23 12.32

11.34 1.26 12.60

11.60 1.30 12.91

12.01 6.45 1.07 19.53

12.29 6.49 1.06 19.83

12.56 6.52 1.07 20.15

12.84 6.55 1.10 20.50

13.14 6.58 1.13 20.85

13.44 6.60 1.16 21.21

13.76 6.63 1.19 21.58

14.09 6.65 1.23 21.96

14.43 6.66 1.26 22.36

14.78 6.68 1.30 22.76

15.15 6.69 1.34 23.18

-9.25

-9.29

-9.37

-9.46

-9.59

-9.70

-9.81

-9.92

-10.04

-10.16

-10.27

Barley Area Harvested

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.40

(Million Hectares) 0.40 0.41 0.41

0.42

0.42

0.43

0.43

Yield

1.54

1.55

1.57

1.58

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.60 1.62 1.63

1.65

1.66

1.68

1.70

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.59 0.01 0.60

0.60 0.01 0.61

0.61 0.01 0.62

0.63 0.01 0.64

(Million Metric Tons) 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.66 0.68 0.69

0.69 0.03 0.71

0.70 0.03 0.73

0.72 0.03 0.75

0.73 0.03 0.77

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.09 0.72 0.01 0.81

0.09 0.73 0.01 0.82

0.09 0.74 0.01 0.84

0.09 0.75 0.02 0.85

0.09 0.77 0.02 0.87

0.09 0.78 0.02 0.89

0.09 0.80 0.03 0.91

0.09 0.82 0.03 0.93

0.09 0.84 0.03 0.95

0.09 0.86 0.03 0.98

0.09 0.88 0.04 1.00

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.21

-0.22

-0.22

-0.22

-0.23

-0.24

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

208 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Indian Coarse Grain n Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

6.60

6.47

6.47

Yield

1.82

1.85

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

12.00 0.67 12.67

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

6.50

(Million Hectares) 6.53 6.56 6.59

6.63

6.66

6.68

6.72

1.88

1.91

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.94 1.98 2.01

2.04

2.07

2.10

2.14

11.97 1.02 12.98

12.17 1.15 13.32

12.43 1.21 13.64

(Million Metric Tons) 12.70 12.96 13.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 13.93 14.22 14.49

13.53 1.27 14.79

13.80 1.28 15.08

14.06 1.28 15.34

14.36 1.29 15.65

4.90 7.01 1.02 12.92

5.13 6.89 1.15 13.17

5.35 6.84 1.21 13.40

5.58 6.81 1.24 13.63

5.83 6.77 1.25 13.86

6.08 6.73 1.26 14.08

6.34 6.68 1.27 14.29

6.61 6.61 1.28 14.50

6.89 6.54 1.28 14.71

7.18 6.46 1.29 14.94

7.49 6.38 1.30 15.16

-0.34

-0.40

-0.39

-0.42

-0.46

-0.50

-0.54

-0.54

-0.57

-0.63

-0.63

10.30

9.72

9.74

10.18

(Million Hectares) 10.16 10.03 9.89

9.78

9.59

9.41

9.32

Yield

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.89

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.90 0.91 0.92

0.93

0.94

0.94

0.95

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

9.00 0.12 9.12

8.53 0.12 8.65

8.63 0.12 8.75

9.10 0.12 9.22

(Million Metric Tons) 9.17 9.14 9.10 0.12 0.12 0.12 9.29 9.26 9.22

9.07 0.12 9.19

8.98 0.12 9.10

8.88 0.12 9.00

8.87 0.12 8.99

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

9.00 0.12 9.12

8.53 0.12 8.65

8.63 0.12 8.75

9.10 0.12 9.22

9.17 0.12 9.29

9.14 0.12 9.26

9.10 0.12 9.22

9.07 0.12 9.19

8.98 0.12 9.10

8.88 0.12 9.00

8.87 0.12 8.99

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net Trade

Sorghum Area Harvested

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 209

Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

3.00

3.03

3.06

Yield

2.07

2.09

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

6.20 0.75 6.95

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

3.05

(Million Hectares) 3.05 3.05 3.05

3.03

3.02

3.00

2.99

2.10

2.12

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.14 2.16 2.18

2.20

2.22

2.24

2.26

6.31 0.70 7.01

6.44 0.70 7.14

6.48 0.71 7.18

(Million Metric Tons) 6.53 6.59 6.64 0.71 0.71 0.71 7.24 7.30 7.35

6.67 0.71 7.39

6.70 0.71 7.41

6.72 0.71 7.43

6.77 0.71 7.48

4.35 3.05 0.70 8.10

4.35 3.11 0.70 8.16

4.41 3.21 0.71 8.33

4.48 3.24 0.71 8.43

4.55 3.29 0.71 8.55

4.64 3.33 0.71 8.68

4.71 3.37 0.71 8.80

4.80 3.40 0.71 8.91

4.88 3.43 0.71 9.02

4.97 3.45 0.71 9.13

5.07 3.48 0.71 9.27

-1.15

-1.15

-1.19

-1.25

-1.31

-1.38

-1.45

-1.53

-1.61

-1.70

-1.79

210 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Malaysian Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

0.03

0.03

0.03

Yield

2.04

2.16

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.06 0.15 0.21

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.03

(Million Hectares) 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.03

2.20

2.24

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.28 2.31 2.35

2.39

2.43

2.46

2.50

0.05 0.16 0.21

0.06 0.16 0.22

0.06 0.17 0.22

(Million Metric Tons) 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.23 0.23 0.24

0.06 0.19 0.24

0.06 0.19 0.25

0.06 0.20 0.26

0.06 0.20 0.26

2.38 0.07 0.16 2.61

2.34 0.08 0.16 2.58

2.40 0.09 0.17 2.65

2.44 0.10 0.17 2.71

2.49 0.11 0.18 2.78

2.55 0.12 0.18 2.85

2.62 0.13 0.19 2.93

2.70 0.14 0.19 3.03

2.79 0.15 0.20 3.13

2.89 0.16 0.20 3.25

3.00 0.17 0.21 3.37

-2.40

-2.37

-2.44

-2.49

-2.55

-2.62

-2.69

-2.78

-2.88

-2.99

-3.11

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Philippine Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

2.50

2.52

2.54

2.56

(Million Hectares) 2.58 2.61 2.63

2.65

2.67

2.70

2.72

Yield

1.72

1.75

1.79

1.83

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.87 1.91 1.95

1.99

2.03

2.07

2.11

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4.30 0.45 4.75

4.40 0.20 4.60

4.55 0.21 4.76

4.69 0.22 4.91

(Million Metric Tons) 4.83 4.98 5.13 0.24 0.25 0.27 5.07 5.23 5.40

5.28 0.28 5.56

5.43 0.30 5.73

5.58 0.31 5.90

5.74 0.33 6.07

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3.60 1.55 0.20 5.35

3.90 1.58 0.21 5.69

3.90 1.61 0.22 5.74

4.02 1.64 0.24 5.91

4.11 1.67 0.25 6.04

4.23 1.70 0.27 6.20

4.32 1.73 0.28 6.34

4.43 1.76 0.30 6.49

4.58 1.79 0.31 6.69

4.72 1.82 0.33 6.87

4.87 1.85 0.34 7.07

-0.60

-1.09

-0.98

-0.99

-0.96

-0.96

-0.94

-0.93

-0.96

-0.97

-1.00

Net Trade

04/05

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 211

Pakistani Coarse Gr Grain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0.87

0.88

0.87

1.44

1.48

1.49

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.87

(Million Hectares) 0.87 0.88 0.88

0.87

0.87

0.87

0.87

1.51

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.52 1.53 1.54

1.55

1.56

1.57

1.59

1.36 0.00 1.36

1.37 0.00 1.37

1.38 0.00 1.38

1.39 0.00 1.39

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.25 0.00 1.25

1.31 0.00 1.31

1.31 0.00 1.31

1.32 0.00 1.32

(Million Metric Tons) 1.33 1.34 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.33 1.34 1.35

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.42 0.84 0.00 1.25

0.42 0.89 0.00 1.31

0.42 0.88 0.00 1.31

0.43 0.89 0.00 1.32

0.43 0.90 0.00 1.33

0.44 0.90 0.00 1.34

0.44 0.91 0.00 1.35

0.45 0.91 0.00 1.36

0.45 0.91 0.00 1.37

0.46 0.92 0.00 1.38

0.46 0.92 0.00 1.39

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.40

0.39

0.40

0.41

(Million Hectares) 0.42 0.43 0.44

0.44

0.45

0.46

0.46

0.58

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.58 0.59 0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.60

0.26 0.00 0.26

0.27 0.00 0.27

0.27 0.00 0.27

0.28 0.00 0.28

Net Trade Sorghum Area Harvested Yield

0.58

0.58

0.58

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.23 0.00 0.23

0.23 0.00 0.23

0.23 0.00 0.23

0.24 0.00 0.24

(Million Metric Tons) 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.26

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.09 0.15 0.00 0.23

0.09 0.14 0.00 0.23

0.09 0.14 0.00 0.23

0.10 0.14 0.00 0.24

0.10 0.15 0.00 0.25

0.10 0.15 0.00 0.25

0.11 0.15 0.00 0.26

0.11 0.15 0.00 0.26

0.12 0.15 0.00 0.27

0.12 0.15 0.00 0.27

0.13 0.15 0.00 0.28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Barley Area Harvested

0.16

0.16

0.16

0.16

(Million Hectares) 0.16 0.16 0.16

0.16

0.16

0.16

0.16

Yield

1.05

1.07

1.09

1.10

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.12 1.14 1.16

1.17

1.19

1.21

1.23

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.17 0.00 0.17

0.17 0.00 0.17

0.17 0.00 0.17

0.18 0.00 0.18

(Million Metric Tons) 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.18 0.18

0.19 0.00 0.19

0.19 0.00 0.19

0.19 0.00 0.19

0.19 0.00 0.19

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.00 0.17 0.00 0.17

0.00 0.17 0.00 0.17

0.00 0.17 0.00 0.17

0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18

0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18

0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18

0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18

0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19

0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19

0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19

0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net Trade

Net Trade

212 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

South Korean Coars rse Grain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0.02

0.02

0.02

4.25

4.31

4.37

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.02

(Million Hectares) 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02

0.02

0.01

0.01

4.43

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.49 4.55 4.61

4.67

4.73

4.79

4.85

0.07 0.66 0.74

0.07 0.67 0.74

0.07 0.67 0.74

0.07 0.68 0.75

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.09 0.86 0.94

0.08 0.64 0.72

0.08 0.60 0.68

0.08 0.63 0.71

(Million Metric Tons) 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.72 0.72 0.73

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

6.50 1.80 0.64 8.94

6.53 1.84 0.60 8.97

6.99 1.90 0.63 9.51

7.03 1.93 0.64 9.60

7.11 1.97 0.64 9.72

7.21 2.01 0.65 9.87

7.29 2.06 0.66 10.01

7.33 2.12 0.67 10.12

7.38 2.19 0.67 10.24

7.43 2.26 0.68 10.38

7.48 2.35 0.69 10.52

-8.00

-8.25

-8.83

-8.88

-9.01

-9.15

-9.28

-9.39

-9.50

-9.63

-9.77

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Trade

Taiwanese Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

(Million Hectares) 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

5.33

5.40

5.48

5.55

Yield

4.80

4.88

4.95

5.03

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.10 5.18 5.25

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.02 1.48 1.50

0.02 1.40 1.42

0.02 1.38 1.41

0.03 1.38 1.40

(Million Metric Tons) 0.03 0.03 0.03 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.40 1.40 1.40

0.03 1.37 1.40

0.03 1.37 1.40

0.03 1.37 1.40

0.03 1.37 1.40

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

5.00 0.20 1.40 6.60

5.01 0.21 1.38 6.60

5.07 0.21 1.38 6.65

5.14 0.21 1.37 6.73

5.24 0.21 1.37 6.83

5.36 0.21 1.37 6.95

5.48 0.21 1.37 7.07

5.55 0.21 1.37 7.13

5.63 0.21 1.37 7.21

5.74 0.21 1.37 7.32

5.87 0.21 1.37 7.45

-5.10

-5.17

-5.25

-5.33

-5.43

-5.55

-5.67

-5.73

-5.81

-5.92

-6.05

Barley Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.08 0.13 0.00 0.20

0.08 0.13 0.00 0.21

0.09 0.13 0.00 0.22

0.10 0.13 0.00 0.23

0.11 0.13 0.00 0.24

0.12 0.14 0.00 0.26

0.13 0.14 0.00 0.27

0.14 0.14 0.00 0.28

0.15 0.14 0.00 0.30

0.17 0.14 0.00 0.31

0.18 0.15 0.00 0.32

-0.20

-0.21

-0.22

-0.23

-0.24

-0.26

-0.27

-0.28

-0.30

-0.31

-0.32

Net Trade

Net Trade

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 213

Thai Coarse Grain Supply S and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

1.20

1.20

1.22

Yield

3.67

3.68

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4.40 0.24 4.64

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.23

(Million Hectares) 1.24 1.25 1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.30

3.69

3.72

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.75 3.79 3.83

3.88

3.94

4.01

4.08

4.43 0.34 4.77

4.49 0.34 4.83

4.56 0.34 4.90

(Million Metric Tons) 4.63 4.72 4.81 0.34 0.34 0.34 4.98 5.06 5.16

4.92 0.34 5.26

5.03 0.34 5.37

5.16 0.34 5.50

5.29 0.34 5.63

4.40 0.34 4.74

5.06 0.34 5.40

4.93 0.34 5.27

4.82 0.34 5.16

4.91 0.34 5.26

5.15 0.34 5.49

5.40 0.34 5.74

5.64 0.34 5.98

6.01 0.34 6.35

6.38 0.34 6.72

6.77 0.34 7.11

-0.10

-0.63

-0.44

-0.26

-0.28

-0.43

-0.59

-0.72

-0.97

-1.22

-1.48

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Vietnamese Coarse e Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

0.69

0.70

0.71

0.72

(Million Hectares) 0.72 0.73 0.74

0.75

0.76

0.77

0.78

Yield

2.61

2.65

2.70

2.75

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.80 2.85 2.90

2.96

3.01

3.06

3.11

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.80 0.00 1.80

1.84 0.00 1.84

1.91 0.00 1.91

1.97 0.00 1.97

(Million Metric Tons) 2.03 2.09 2.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.03 2.09 2.16

2.22 0.00 2.22

2.29 0.00 2.29

2.36 0.00 2.36

2.43 0.00 2.43

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.95 0.00 1.95

2.01 0.00 2.01

2.07 0.00 2.07

2.14 0.00 2.14

2.22 0.00 2.22

2.30 0.00 2.30

2.40 0.00 2.40

2.50 0.00 2.50

2.61 0.00 2.61

2.73 0.00 2.73

2.86 0.00 2.86

-0.15

-0.17

-0.17

-0.17

-0.19

-0.21

-0.24

-0.27

-0.32

-0.37

-0.43

Net Trade

04/05

214 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other Asian Coarse e Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

1.86

1.87

1.88

Yield

1.87

1.90

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3.49 0.00 3.49

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.89

(Million Hectares) 1.90 1.91 1.92

1.93

1.94

1.95

1.96

1.89

1.89

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.88 1.88 1.88

1.87

1.87

1.86

1.86

3.55 0.00 3.55

3.56 0.00 3.56

3.57 0.00 3.57

(Million Metric Tons) 3.58 3.59 3.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.58 3.59 3.60

3.61 0.00 3.61

3.62 0.00 3.62

3.63 0.00 3.63

3.64 0.00 3.64

0.08 3.57 0.00 3.65

0.08 3.56 0.00 3.64

0.09 3.58 0.00 3.67

0.09 3.61 0.00 3.70

0.10 3.65 0.00 3.75

0.10 3.68 0.00 3.78

0.11 3.71 0.00 3.82

0.11 3.74 0.00 3.85

0.12 3.78 0.00 3.89

0.12 3.80 0.00 3.92

0.13 3.83 0.00 3.95

-0.16

-0.09

-0.11

-0.13

-0.17

-0.19

-0.22

-0.24

-0.27

-0.29

-0.31

Barley Area Harvested

1.09

1.12

1.17

1.20

(Million Hectares) 1.24 1.28 1.31

1.33

1.35

1.36

1.37

Yield

1.97

1.97

2.00

2.02

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.05 2.07 2.10

2.12

2.14

2.17

2.19

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.15 0.02 2.17

2.21 0.02 2.23

2.33 0.02 2.35

2.43 0.02 2.45

(Million Metric Tons) 2.55 2.65 2.73 0.02 0.02 0.02 2.57 2.67 2.75

2.82 0.02 2.84

2.89 0.02 2.91

2.95 0.02 2.97

3.00 0.02 3.02

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.15 2.10 0.02 2.27

0.16 2.15 0.02 2.33

0.16 2.27 0.02 2.45

0.17 2.37 0.02 2.55

0.17 2.48 0.02 2.67

0.18 2.57 0.02 2.77

0.18 2.65 0.02 2.85

0.19 2.73 0.02 2.94

0.19 2.80 0.02 3.01

0.20 2.86 0.02 3.07

0.20 2.90 0.02 3.12

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 215

Czech Republic Coa oarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

0.04

0.04

0.04

Yield

5.75

5.76

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.23 0.06 0.29

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.04

(Million Hectares) 0.04 0.04 0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.04

5.77

5.78

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.79 5.80 5.81

5.82

5.83

5.84

5.85

0.24 0.02 0.26

0.24 0.02 0.26

0.25 0.02 0.27

(Million Metric Tons) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.27 0.27 0.27

0.25 0.02 0.27

0.25 0.02 0.27

0.25 0.02 0.27

0.25 0.02 0.27

0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39

0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39

0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39

0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39

0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39

0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39

0.25 0.12 0.02 0.40

0.26 0.12 0.02 0.40

0.26 0.12 0.02 0.40

0.26 0.12 0.02 0.41

0.27 0.12 0.02 0.41

-0.10

-0.13

-0.13

-0.12

-0.12

-0.12

-0.12

-0.13

-0.13

-0.14

-0.14

Barley Area Harvested

0.50

0.50

0.51

0.51

(Million Hectares) 0.52 0.52 0.53

0.53

0.54

0.54

0.55

Yield

3.30

3.33

3.37

3.40

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.43 3.47 3.50

3.54

3.57

3.61

3.65

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.65 0.05 1.70

1.68 0.05 1.73

1.71 0.05 1.76

1.75 0.05 1.80

(Million Metric Tons) 1.78 1.81 1.85 0.05 0.05 0.05 1.83 1.86 1.90

1.88 0.05 1.93

1.92 0.05 1.97

1.95 0.05 2.00

1.99 0.05 2.04

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.20 0.58 0.05 1.83

1.20 0.57 0.05 1.82

1.19 0.58 0.05 1.82

1.19 0.58 0.05 1.82

1.20 0.58 0.05 1.83

1.20 0.59 0.05 1.84

1.21 0.59 0.05 1.86

1.23 0.60 0.05 1.88

1.25 0.60 0.05 1.91

1.27 0.61 0.05 1.93

1.30 0.61 0.05 1.96

-0.13

-0.09

-0.06

-0.03

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

216 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Hungarian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

1.10

1.14

1.14

Yield

4.09

5.28

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4.50 0.45 4.95

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1.15

(Million Hectares) 1.15 1.15 1.16

1.16

1.16

1.17

1.17

5.41

5.51

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.62 5.73 5.85

5.96

6.07

6.18

6.30

6.01 0.10 6.11

6.17 0.28 6.45

6.33 0.28 6.61

(Million Metric Tons) 6.45 6.60 6.76 0.29 0.29 0.30 6.73 6.89 7.05

6.91 0.30 7.21

7.07 0.31 7.38

7.23 0.31 7.54

7.39 0.32 7.71

4.00 0.70 0.10 4.80

4.06 0.70 0.28 5.04

4.20 0.70 0.28 5.18

4.31 0.71 0.29 5.31

4.42 0.71 0.29 5.42

4.54 0.71 0.30 5.55

4.65 0.72 0.30 5.67

4.74 0.72 0.31 5.77

4.85 0.72 0.31 5.88

4.98 0.72 0.32 6.01

5.13 0.73 0.32 6.18

0.15

1.02

1.21

1.25

1.26

1.29

1.33

1.40

1.45

1.47

1.48

Barley Area Harvested

0.33

0.33

0.33

0.34

(Million Hectares) 0.34 0.35 0.35

0.35

0.36

0.36

0.36

Yield

2.73

2.90

2.93

2.96

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.99 3.02 3.05

3.08

3.11

3.14

3.17

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.90 0.10 1.00

0.96 0.10 1.06

0.98 0.10 1.08

1.00 0.10 1.10

(Million Metric Tons) 1.03 1.05 1.07 0.10 0.10 0.10 1.13 1.15 1.17

1.09 0.10 1.19

1.11 0.10 1.21

1.12 0.10 1.22

1.14 0.10 1.24

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.53 0.40 0.10 1.03

0.53 0.39 0.10 1.02

0.53 0.39 0.10 1.02

0.53 0.38 0.10 1.01

0.53 0.38 0.10 1.01

0.54 0.37 0.10 1.00

0.54 0.36 0.10 1.00

0.54 0.35 0.10 0.99

0.54 0.35 0.10 0.99

0.54 0.34 0.10 0.98

0.55 0.33 0.10 0.98

-0.03

0.04

0.06

0.09

0.12

0.14

0.17

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 217

Polish Coarse Grain n Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

0.18

0.15

0.15

Yield

5.00

5.30

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.90 0.18 26.67

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.15

(Million Hectares) 0.16 0.16 0.16

0.16

0.16

0.17

0.17

5.35

5.40

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.44 5.49 5.54

5.59

5.64

5.69

5.75

0.80 0.33 27.67

0.81 0.33 28.67

0.83 0.34 29.67

(Million Metric Tons) 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.34 0.35 0.35 30.67 31.67 32.67

0.91 0.35 33.67

0.93 0.35 34.67

0.95 0.35 34.67

0.97 0.35 34.67

0.88 0.08 0.33 26.37

0.92 0.08 0.33 27.37

0.97 0.08 0.34 28.37

1.01 0.08 0.34 29.37

1.05 0.08 0.35 30.37

1.08 0.08 0.35 31.37

1.12 0.08 0.35 32.37

1.16 0.08 0.35 33.37

1.21 0.08 0.35 34.37

1.27 0.08 0.35 34.37

1.33 0.08 0.35 34.37

-0.20

-0.21

-0.23

-0.26

-0.27

-0.29

-0.31

-0.33

-0.36

-0.40

-0.44

Barley Area Harvested

1.10

1.07

1.07

1.07

(Million Hectares) 1.07 1.06 1.05

1.04

1.04

1.03

1.02

Yield

2.64

2.95

2.98

3.01

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.04 3.07 3.10

3.13

3.16

3.19

3.23

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.90 0.28 3.18

3.16 0.23 3.39

3.20 0.24 3.44

3.22 0.25 3.47

(Million Metric Tons) 3.24 3.25 3.26 0.26 0.27 0.29 3.50 3.52 3.54

3.27 0.30 3.56

3.28 0.31 3.58

3.29 0.32 3.61

3.31 0.33 3.63

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2.20 1.00 0.23 3.43

2.30 1.00 0.24 3.54

2.42 1.01 0.25 3.68

2.52 1.02 0.26 3.80

2.61 1.03 0.27 3.91

2.69 1.04 0.29 4.01

2.78 1.04 0.30 4.11

2.88 1.05 0.31 4.23

2.98 1.05 0.32 4.35

3.11 1.05 0.33 4.48

3.25 1.05 0.33 4.63

-0.25

-0.16

-0.25

-0.33

-0.41

-0.49

-0.57

-0.67

-0.77

-0.88

-1.00

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

218 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other Eastern Euro opean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Corn Area Harvested

5.07

5.41

5.47

Yield

2.18

3.70

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

11.03 6.53 17.56

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

5.47

(Million Hectares) 5.46 5.48 5.50

5.53

5.56

5.58

5.61

3.73

3.76

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.79 3.82 3.85

3.88

3.91

3.94

3.98

20.00 1.84 21.84

20.40 2.35 22.75

20.55 2.77 23.32

(Million Metric Tons) 20.71 20.93 21.19 2.81 2.85 2.88 23.52 23.77 24.07

21.47 2.92 24.39

21.73 2.96 24.69

22.00 3.00 25.00

22.29 3.04 25.32

11.93 3.90 1.84 17.66

14.49 3.89 2.35 20.73

14.60 3.88 2.77 21.26

14.82 3.88 2.81 21.52

14.89 3.88 2.85 21.62

15.03 3.89 2.88 21.80

15.15 3.89 2.92 21.96

15.27 3.89 2.96 22.12

15.49 3.89 3.00 22.38

15.62 3.89 3.04 22.55

15.79 3.89 3.08 22.76

-0.11

1.11

1.49

1.81

1.90

1.97

2.11

2.26

2.31

2.44

2.56

Barley Area Harvested

1.03

1.03

1.03

1.03

(Million Hectares) 1.04 1.05 1.05

1.06

1.07

1.08

1.08

Yield

2.33

2.45

2.48

2.51

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.54 2.57 2.60

2.63

2.66

2.70

2.73

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2.41 0.40 2.81

2.53 0.30 2.83

2.56 0.30 2.87

2.59 0.31 2.90

(Million Metric Tons) 2.64 2.69 2.74 0.31 0.31 0.31 2.95 3.00 3.05

2.80 0.31 3.11

2.85 0.32 3.17

2.91 0.32 3.22

2.96 0.32 3.28

Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.93 0.86 0.30 3.08

1.96 0.87 0.30 3.13

1.96 0.88 0.31 3.15

1.94 0.88 0.31 3.13

1.95 0.89 0.31 3.14

1.97 0.89 0.31 3.17

1.98 0.89 0.31 3.19

2.00 0.90 0.32 3.21

2.01 0.90 0.32 3.23

2.04 0.90 0.32 3.27

2.06 0.90 0.32 3.29

-0.28

-0.31

-0.28

-0.23

-0.19

-0.17

-0.14

-0.10

-0.06

-0.04

-0.01

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 219

Rest-of-World Coars rse Grain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0.11

0.11

0.11

6.95

6.86

6.93

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0.11

(Million Hectares) 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.11

7.00

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 7.07 7.14 7.21

7.28

7.35

7.43

7.50

0.83 0.09 0.92

0.84 0.09 0.93

0.85 0.09 0.94

0.86 0.10 0.95

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0.77 0.09 0.86

0.76 0.09 0.85

0.78 0.09 0.87

0.79 0.09 0.88

(Million Metric Tons) 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.89 0.90 0.91

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

0.87 0.09 0.96

0.87 0.09 0.96

0.89 0.09 0.98

0.91 0.09 1.00

0.92 0.09 1.01

0.94 0.09 1.03

0.96 0.09 1.05

0.98 0.09 1.07

1.00 0.09 1.09

1.02 0.10 1.11

1.04 0.10 1.13

-0.10

-0.11

-0.11

-0.12

-0.13

-0.14

-0.14

-0.15

-0.16

-0.17

-0.18

16.84

16.85

16.86

16.85

(Million Hectares) 16.84 16.82 16.81

16.80

16.78

16.75

16.73

0.87

1.01

1.02

1.03

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.04 1.05 1.06

1.07

1.08

1.09

1.10

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

14.73 0.32 15.05

17.02 0.32 17.34

17.20 0.41 17.61

17.36 0.50 17.86

(Million Metric Tons) 17.52 17.68 17.84 0.57 0.62 0.64 18.09 18.30 18.48

18.01 0.65 18.66

18.17 0.65 18.82

18.32 0.65 18.98

18.49 0.64 19.12

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

15.31 0.32 15.62

17.32 0.41 17.73

17.54 0.50 18.04

17.73 0.57 18.30

17.93 0.62 18.54

18.12 0.64 18.76

18.33 0.65 18.98

18.56 0.65 19.22

18.79 0.65 19.44

19.01 0.64 19.64

19.24 0.60 19.84

-0.58

-0.40

-0.43

-0.43

-0.45

-0.47

-0.50

-0.56

-0.62

-0.67

-0.72

Barley Area Harvested

0.30

0.29

0.28

0.28

(Million Hectares) 0.27 0.27 0.26

0.26

0.25

0.25

0.25

Yield

4.28

4.60

4.67

4.74

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.81 4.88 4.96

5.03

5.11

5.18

5.26

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1.29 0.48 1.78

1.34 0.37 1.71

1.33 0.39 1.71

1.31 0.39 1.71

(Million Metric Tons) 1.31 1.31 1.30 0.39 0.39 0.39 1.70 1.70 1.69

1.30 0.38 1.69

1.30 0.38 1.68

1.30 0.38 1.68

1.30 0.37 1.67

Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1.42 0.37 1.79

1.47 0.39 1.85

1.52 0.39 1.92

1.57 0.39 1.96

1.62 0.39 2.01

1.67 0.39 2.06

1.73 0.38 2.11

1.78 0.38 2.16

1.83 0.38 2.21

1.89 0.37 2.26

1.94 0.37 2.31

-0.01

-0.14

-0.20

-0.25

-0.31

-0.36

-0.42

-0.47

-0.53

-0.59

-0.64

Net Trade Sorghum Area Harvested Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

WORLD OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS

222 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Soybean and Soybean Products Rotterdam soybean prices decline 11.5 percent to $205 per mt in 2000/01 and are expected to decline an additional 3.5 percent in 2001/02. Rotterdam soybean prices increase 2.3 percent annually to $244 per mt by 2010/11. Current soy meal prices increased by 10 percent from last year while soy oil prices decreased for the third consecutive year. Soy meal is not expected to maintain its current strength, but soy oil prices are projected to start a recovery next year. Despite depressed world prices, low soybean production costs allow Argentina and Brazil to expand their soybean area by 3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, in 2001/02. Soybean area increases in both countries, from the current 9.7 mha in Argentina to 11.3 mha and from 13.4 mha in Brazil to 17.2 mha by 2010/11, accounting for 80 percent of total soybean area expansion. World soybean trade grows 47.6 percent over the baseline. Due to the strong expansion of South American soybean exports, the U.S. share of world soybean trade declines from 63 percent in the current year to 50 percent in 2010/ 11. Brazil increases its exports by 10.2 mmt and captures one-third of world soybean exports by 2010/11. After declining for three years, the soybean meal export market volume increases in 2000/01, and this trend is expected to continue in 2001/02. The market grows at about 1 percent per year from 2003/04 onward in response to expanding livestock production in several Asian and developing countries. Exports from Argentina and Brazil continue to dominate international soybean meal trade. The United States captures 20 percent of the market. Argentina supplies over 50 percent of the world’s soy oil exports throughout the projection period. The United States increases its market share of soy oil trade from 10 to 13 percent by 2010/11. Equalization of cereal and oilseed compensatory payments abolishes crop-specific payments for oilseeds by 2002/03. As a result, EU oilseed area declines 6 percent. The EU ban on animal protein meal increases the consumption of soy meal by 1 mmt in 2000/01, and a similar increase is expected in 2001/02. Policies favoring oilseed imports and domestic crush prompt China’s emergence as the second largest importer of soybeans. China’s soybean net imports grow from 7.6 mmt to 16.3 mmt by 2010/11. China’s soy oil net imports increase from 0.6 mmt to 1.2 mmt during the baseline, but soybean meal net imports decline until China becomes a small net exporter in 2010/11. Strong income and population growth drive India’s soybean oil net imports up to 1.1 mmt, making India the second largest soybean oil importer during the projection period. In contrast, with increasing crush and a small livestock sector, India remains a large exporter of soybean meal. Japan imports a large quantity of soybeans for its domestic crushing industry. However, weak growth in livestock production and rising meat imports keep Japanese soybean imports stable at their current level of about 4.8 mmt. Taiwan is one of the world’s largest soybean importers, with estimated imports of 2.3 mmt in 2000/01. Taiwan’s soybean imports grow slowly during the baseline because of weak growth in livestock production and strong substitution of palm oil for other vegetable oils. South Korean soybean and soybean meal imports grow to meet feed demand in its pork and poultry industries. Korean soybean and meal imports increase by 358 tmt and 489 tmt, respectively, during the baseline.

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 223

Soybean Trade 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

4,501 10,400 500 26,461

5,269 11,071 465 28,313

5,669 11,441 446 29,932

Total Net Exports

41,862

45,118

Net Importers Eastern Europe European Union Former Soviet Union Japan China India South Korea Taiwan Rest of World

54 15,951 83 4,750 7,650 0 1,700 2,350 9,324

Total Net Imports

Net Exporters Argentina Brazil Canada United States

Prices FOB Gulf CIF Rotterdam

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

6,044 12,192 458 30,603

(Thousand Metric Tons) 6,493 6,940 7,419 13,209 14,507 15,746 478 504 526 30,922 30,912 30,818

7,907 16,957 547 30,880

8,402 18,215 569 30,862

8,903 19,527 589 30,977

9,428 20,620 603 31,143

47,488

49,297

51,101

52,863

54,509

56,290

58,049

59,996

61,794

53 16,625 86 4,767 9,271 0 1,726 2,342 10,248

54 16,656 96 4,766 10,682 0 1,793 2,343 11,099

50 16,760 102 4,767 11,995 0 1,835 2,347 11,442

46 16,864 103 4,771 12,976 0 1,874 2,349 12,119

44 16,965 108 4,774 13,586 0 1,905 2,354 13,128

44 17,076 115 4,777 14,177 0 1,932 2,357 14,030

42 17,173 120 4,781 14,732 0 1,964 2,363 15,115

41 17,268 126 4,784 15,342 0 1,999 2,369 16,120

42 17,385 137 4,786 15,823 0 2,029 2,376 17,417

44 17,498 149 4,787 16,337 0 2,058 2,383 18,538

41,862

45,118

47,488

49,297

51,101

52,863

54,509

56,290

58,049

59,996

61,794

182 205

176 197

177 198

181 203

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 188 194 199 211 217 223

205 230

211 236

215 241

218 244

224 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Soybean Area Harvested Million Hectares 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Argentina

Brazil

2002/03 China

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

U.S.

Soybean Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton

Percent 14

350 320

12 290 10

260 230

8

200 6

170 140

4

110 2 80 0

50 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Stock-to-Use Ratio

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

Soybean CIF Rotterdam

2008/09

2010/11

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 225

Major Soybean Exporters Million Metric Tons 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

United States

2002/03

Argentina

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Brazil

Major Soybean Importers Million Metric Tons 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95 EU

1996/97 China

1998/99

2000/01

Rest of World

2002/03

Taiwan

South Korea

Japan

226 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Soybean Production to Crush Ratios Production/Crush 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

Argentina

1996/97 Brazil

1998/99 China

2000/01

2002/03

EU

2004/05

India

2006/07 Japan

2008/09

2010/11

U.S.

China Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade Million Metric Tons 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Net Trade

2000/01

2002/03

Production

2004/05 Consumption

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 227

Soybean Meal Trade de 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

14,151 10,000 2,500 6,465

14,470 9,989 2,400 7,144

14,641 10,223 1,940 6,928

Total Net Exports

33,116

34,002

Net Importers Canada Eastern Europe European Union Former Soviet Union Japan China South Korea Taiwan Rest of World

680 2,410 14,986 273 900 785 950 50 12,082

Total Net Imports

Net Exporters Argentina Brazil India United States

Prices FOB Decatur 48% CIF Rotterdam

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

14,830 10,338 1,952 6,785

(Thousand Metric Tons) 15,024 15,216 15,402 10,429 10,496 10,575 2,040 2,134 2,253 6,780 6,755 6,790

15,588 10,658 2,357 6,727

15,776 10,737 2,468 6,763

15,961 10,823 2,556 6,759

16,141 10,904 2,681 6,771

33,731

33,905

34,273

34,601

35,020

35,330

35,745

36,100

36,498

790 2,419 15,793 372 912 743 1,077 56 11,841

1,051 2,407 15,311 371 872 766 1,128 43 11,782

992 2,472 15,516 388 869 596 1,174 36 11,861

1,024 2,510 16,179 393 869 586 1,189 26 11,498

1,160 2,530 16,414 396 866 471 1,206 13 11,546

1,293 2,552 16,372 397 854 422 1,252 -2 11,879

1,257 2,590 16,304 402 849 266 1,317 -6 12,351

1,254 2,638 16,475 406 846 259 1,369 -7 12,505

1,349 2,671 16,491 403 842 73 1,402 -8 12,875

1,460 2,719 16,479 404 836 -37 1,439 -8 13,206

33,116

34,002

33,731

33,905

34,273

34,601

35,020

35,330

35,745

36,100

36,498

202 199

194 191

193 190

195 193

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 200 203 206 197 200 202

209 205

212 208

214 210

215 211

228 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Major Soybean Meal Exporters Million Metric Tons 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

United States

2000/01 Argentina

2002/03 Brazil

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

India

Major Soybean Meal Importers Million Metric Tons 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95 EU

1996/97 China

1998/99

2000/01

Eastern Europe

2002/03 Japan

2004/05

South Korea

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 229

Chinese Oilseed Meal Consumption Shares 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 Soy Meal Rape Meal Sun Meal Palm Kernel Meal Peanut Meal

2008/09

2010/11

Soy Meal

1998/99

2000/01

Rape Meal

2002/03

Sun Meal

2004/05

Peanut Meal

EU Oilseed Meal Consumption Shares 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990/91

1992/93

230 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Soybean Oil Trade 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

3,161 1,070 1,116 599

3,215 1,064 1,116 767

3,258 1,111 1,108 700

3,301 1,139 1,089 744

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,345 3,388 3,432 1,174 1,206 1,238 1,059 1,037 1,014 777 808 837

3,476 1,270 994 858

3,519 1,298 972 888

3,563 1,321 954 873

3,606 1,342 938 903

Total Net Exports

5,946

6,162

6,178

6,272

6,354

6,439

6,521

6,598

6,678

6,710

6,790

Net Importers Canada Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Japan China India South Korea Taiwan Rest of World

-20 97 150 26 600 780 120 50 4,144

-19 111 162 27 716 827 137 76 4,126

-15 115 166 28 656 973 126 79 4,050

-12 119 168 28 671 1,008 116 83 4,091

-9 123 171 28 722 1,025 109 88 4,097

-7 126 174 27 778 1,039 108 93 4,101

-4 130 176 26 854 1,049 113 98 4,078

-1 134 179 25 921 1,063 122 104 4,050

2 138 183 24 982 1,075 136 110 4,027

5 143 189 21 1,085 1,096 157 117 3,897

9 148 195 13 1,173 1,107 177 123 3,844

Total Net Imports

5,946

6,162

6,178

6,272

6,354

6,439

6,521

6,597

6,677

6,710

6,789

314 315

326 321

332 323

347 330

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 364 383 403 338 348 357

424 367

447 378

463 386

484 395

Net Exporters Argentina Brazil European Union United States

Prices FOB Decatur FOB Rotterdam

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 231

Soybean Oil Trade and Price Dollars per Metric Ton

Million Metric Tons 8

800

6

700

4

600

2

500

0

400

-2

300

-4

200

-6

100 0

-8 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

2002/03

China India Brazil EU

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Others Argentina U.S. Soybean Oil, FOB Rotterdam Price

Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries Kilograms per Year 25

20

15

10

5

0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95 China

1996/97 India

1998/99 Japan

2000/01

2002/03

Canada

2004/05 South Korea

2006/07

2008/09

Taiwan

2010/11

232 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Soybean Secto or Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

29,429

30,191

30,040

29,886

(Thousand Hectares) 29,829 29,792 29,748

29,678

29,640

29,764

29,880

2.56

2.66

2.69

2.73

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.76 2.79 2.82

2.85

2.88

2.90

2.93

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

75,378 7,884 83,262

80,182 8,666 88,847

80,823 10,693 91,516

81,443 11,171 92,614

(Thousand Metric Tons) 82,236 83,057 83,844 10,951 10,515 10,155 93,187 93,572 93,999

84,555 9,869 94,424

85,323 9,521 94,843

86,445 9,174 95,619

87,553 8,998 96,551

Crush Seed, Residual Ending Stocks Domestic Use

43,566 4,569 8,666 48,135

45,188 4,653 10,693 49,842

45,751 4,661 11,171 50,413

46,382 4,677 10,951 51,060

47,045 4,705 10,515 51,750

47,794 4,711 10,155 52,505

48,582 4,731 9,869 53,313

49,291 4,733 9,521 54,024

50,039 4,767 9,174 54,807

50,841 4,804 8,998 55,645

51,720 4,857 8,831 56,576

26,461

28,313

29,932

30,603

30,922

30,912

30,818

30,880

30,862

30,977

31,143

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

34,777 266 35,043

35,774 249 36,023

36,220 228 36,448

36,719 226 36,946

37,244 228 37,472

37,837 228 38,066

38,461 230 38,691

39,022 232 39,255

39,615 234 39,849

40,249 237 40,485

40,945 238 41,183

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

28,329 249 28,578

28,651 228 28,879

29,294 226 29,521

29,933 228 30,161

30,464 228 30,692

31,080 230 31,310

31,669 232 31,901

32,293 234 32,528

32,849 237 33,086

33,488 238 33,726

34,169 243 34,412

6,465

7,144

6,928

6,785

6,780

6,755

6,790

6,727

6,763

6,759

6,771

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

8,198 905 9,103

8,541 1,040 9,581

8,651 1,040 9,691

8,774 1,037 9,811

8,903 1,036 9,939

9,049 1,036 10,085

9,202 1,033 10,235

9,341 1,030 10,370

9,487 1,023 10,509

9,643 1,013 10,656

9,814 1,012 10,826

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

7,463 1,040 8,504

7,774 1,040 8,814

7,954 1,037 8,991

8,031 1,036 9,067

8,126 1,036 9,162

8,244 1,033 9,276

8,368 1,030 9,398

8,490 1,023 9,512

8,608 1,013 9,621

8,771 1,012 9,783

8,915 1,007 9,923

599

767

700

744

777

808

837

858

888

873

903

Soybeans Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 233

Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

9,700

9,993

10,118

2.42

2.44

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

23,500 400 23,900

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Soybeans Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

10,219

(Thousand Hectares) 10,370 10,515 10,675

10,834

10,991

11,146

11,309

2.47

2.51

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.54 2.57 2.60

2.64

2.67

2.70

2.73

24,360 600 24,960

25,013 602 25,615

25,641 603 26,244

(Thousand Metric Tons) 26,350 27,060 27,803 603 603 602 26,953 27,663 28,405

28,554 602 29,155

29,313 601 29,914

30,076 601 30,677

30,863 601 31,464

18,200 590 600 19,390

18,456 623 602 19,681

18,701 633 603 19,936

18,946 640 603 20,189

19,196 652 603 20,450

19,447 663 602 20,712

19,699 676 602 20,976

19,950 688 601 21,239

20,200 700 601 21,502

20,451 712 601 21,764

20,701 725 601 22,026

4,501

5,269

5,669

6,044

6,493

6,940

7,419

7,907

8,402

8,903

9,428

14,830 265 15,095

14,950 470 15,420

15,148 471 15,618

15,346 475 15,821

15,548 477 16,026

15,752 477 16,229

15,956 477 16,433

16,159 477 16,636

16,362 478 16,840

16,565 478 17,044

16,767 479 17,246

475 470 945

479 471 950

502 475 978

515 477 992

524 477 1,001

537 477 1,014

554 477 1,031

570 478 1,048

585 478 1,064

603 479 1,082

625 480 1,105

14,151

14,470

14,641

14,830

15,024

15,216

15,402

15,588

15,776

15,961

16,141

3,285 111 3,396

3,322 131 3,453

3,366 132 3,498

3,410 131 3,542

3,455 131 3,587

3,501 131 3,632

3,546 131 3,677

3,591 130 3,721

3,636 130 3,766

3,681 130 3,811

3,726 129 3,856

105 131 236

107 132 238

108 131 239

109 131 241

111 131 242

112 131 243

114 130 244

116 130 246

117 130 247

119 129 248

120 129 249

3,161

3,215

3,258

3,301

3,345

3,388

3,432

3,476

3,519

3,563

3,606

234 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Brazilian Soybean Sector S Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

13,400

13,474

13,671

13,993

(Thousand Hectares) 14,415 14,933 15,420

15,884

16,351

16,829

17,214

2.58

2.59

2.63

2.66

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.69 2.73 2.76

2.79

2.83

2.86

2.89

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

34,500 430 34,930

34,962 590 35,552

35,925 596 36,521

37,231 599 37,830

(Thousand Metric Tons) 38,833 40,719 42,555 599 597 596 39,431 41,315 43,151

44,361 595 44,956

46,206 595 46,801

48,110 595 48,705

49,781 596 50,376

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

22,200 1,740 590 24,530

22,132 1,753 596 24,481

22,701 1,780 599 25,080

23,218 1,821 599 25,638

23,751 1,875 597 26,223

24,271 1,941 596 26,808

24,806 2,004 595 27,405

25,340 2,064 595 27,999

25,866 2,124 595 28,585

26,396 2,186 596 29,178

26,921 2,237 598 29,756

10,400

11,071

11,441

12,192

13,209

14,507

15,746

16,957

18,215

19,527

20,620

17,475 402 17,877

17,484 477 17,961

17,934 477 18,411

18,342 480 18,822

18,763 481 19,244

19,174 481 19,655

19,596 481 20,078

20,019 483 20,501

20,434 484 20,918

20,853 485 21,338

21,268 487 21,755

7,400 477 7,877

7,495 477 7,972

7,708 480 8,188

8,003 481 8,484

8,335 481 8,816

8,678 481 9,159

9,020 483 9,503

9,359 484 9,843

9,696 485 10,181

10,028 487 10,514

10,362 489 10,851

10,000

9,989

10,223

10,338

10,429

10,496

10,575

10,658

10,737

10,823

10,904

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4,137 200 4,337

4,205 207 4,412

4,313 208 4,521

4,411 208 4,619

4,513 207 4,720

4,612 207 4,818

4,713 206 4,919

4,815 205 5,020

4,915 205 5,119

5,015 204 5,219

5,115 204 5,319

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,060 207 3,267

3,140 208 3,348

3,202 208 3,410

3,273 207 3,480

3,340 207 3,546

3,407 206 3,613

3,475 205 3,681

3,545 205 3,750

3,617 204 3,821

3,695 204 3,899

3,773 204 3,977

1,070

1,064

1,111

1,139

1,174

1,206

1,238

1,270

1,298

1,321

1,342

Soybeans Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 235

Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1,061

1,069

1,059

1,063

(Thousand Hectares) 1,072 1,084 1,096

1,105

1,116

1,127

1,135

2.55

2.56

2.57

2.58

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.59 2.60 2.61

2.61

2.62

2.63

2.64

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,703 173 2,876

2,736 136 2,872

2,721 141 2,863

2,742 144 2,887

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,774 2,816 2,855 145 144 144 2,919 2,961 2,999

2,890 144 3,034

2,928 144 3,072

2,966 144 3,110

2,995 145 3,141

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,750 490 136 2,376

1,759 506 141 2,407

1,765 506 144 2,416

1,773 511 145 2,429

1,783 514 144 2,441

1,792 521 144 2,457

1,801 528 144 2,474

1,810 534 144 2,487

1,818 540 144 2,503

1,826 550 145 2,521

1,833 558 147 2,538

500

465

446

458

478

504

526

547

569

589

603

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,380 5 1,385

1,390 5 1,395

1,395 5 1,400

1,401 5 1,406

1,408 5 1,414

1,415 5 1,421

1,423 5 1,428

1,430 5 1,435

1,436 5 1,442

1,442 5 1,448

1,448 5 1,454

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,060 5 2,065

2,180 5 2,185

2,446 5 2,451

2,393 5 2,398

2,432 5 2,437

2,575 5 2,580

2,716 5 2,721

2,687 5 2,692

2,690 5 2,696

2,792 5 2,797

2,908 6 2,914

-680

-790

-1,051

-992

-1,024

-1,160

-1,293

-1,257

-1,254

-1,349

-1,460

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

297 11 308

299 12 311

300 12 312

301 12 314

303 12 315

305 12 317

306 12 318

308 12 320

309 12 321

310 12 322

312 12 323

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

276 12 288

280 12 292

285 12 297

289 12 301

294 12 306

298 12 310

302 12 314

307 12 319

311 12 323

316 12 328

320 12 332

20

19

15

12

9

7

4

1

-2

-5

-9

Soybeans Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

236 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Chinese Soybean Sector S Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

9,300

9,441

8,956

8,611

(Thousand Hectares) 8,501 8,638 8,792

8,949

9,078

9,303

9,512

1.66

1.68

1.70

1.72

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.74 1.76 1.78

1.80

1.82

1.84

1.86

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

15,438 3,619 19,057

15,861 2,385 18,246

15,226 2,397 17,623

14,811 2,406 17,217

(Thousand Metric Tons) 14,792 15,203 15,650 2,420 2,439 2,462 17,212 17,642 18,112

16,107 2,484 18,592

16,521 2,502 19,023

17,117 2,519 19,636

17,691 2,537 20,229

Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

16,559 6,475 1,250 2,385 26,669

17,313 6,554 1,253 2,397 27,517

18,048 6,614 1,237 2,406 28,305

18,862 6,711 1,219 2,420 29,212

19,701 6,839 1,209 2,439 30,187

20,565 6,991 1,210 2,462 31,228

21,443 7,145 1,216 2,484 32,288

22,324 7,274 1,224 2,502 33,324

23,221 7,394 1,231 2,519 34,365

24,151 7,529 1,242 2,537 35,459

25,084 7,672 1,253 2,557 36,566

-7,650

-9,271

-10,682

-11,995

-12,976

-13,586

-14,177

-14,732

-15,342

-15,823

-16,337

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

13,150 0 13,150

13,739 0 13,739

14,312 0 14,312

14,947 0 14,947

15,600 0 15,600

16,273 0 16,273

16,954 0 16,954

17,637 0 17,637

18,331 0 18,331

19,050 0 19,050

19,770 0 19,770

Feed Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

13,935 0 13,935

14,482 0 14,482

15,078 0 15,078

15,543 0 15,543

16,186 0 16,186

16,744 0 16,744

17,376 0 17,376

17,903 0 17,903

18,590 0 18,590

19,123 0 19,123

19,732 0 19,732

-785

-743

-766

-596

-586

-471

-422

-266

-259

-73

37

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,720 280 3,000

2,861 195 3,056

2,999 250 3,249

3,151 250 3,401

3,309 250 3,559

3,472 250 3,722

3,639 250 3,889

3,807 250 4,057

3,979 250 4,229

4,157 250 4,407

4,337 250 4,587

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,405 195 3,600

3,522 250 3,772

3,655 250 3,905

3,822 250 4,072

4,031 250 4,281

4,250 250 4,500

4,493 250 4,743

4,728 250 4,978

4,961 250 5,211

5,242 250 5,492

5,511 250 5,761

-600

-716

-656

-671

-722

-778

-854

-921

-982

-1,085

-1,173

Soybeans Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 237

Eastern European Soybean S Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Soybeans Area Harvested

330

329

326

Yield

1.50

1.53

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

495 21 516

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

326

(Thousand Hectares) 326 326 326

326

327

327

327

1.55

1.58

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.60 1.62 1.65

1.67

1.69

1.71

1.73

503 16 519

505 16 522

513 16 529

(Thousand Metric Tons) 521 529 537 16 16 16 537 545 553

545 16 561

552 16 568

560 16 576

567 16 583

493 52 16 561

495 46 16 557

498 46 16 560

503 46 16 564

506 45 16 568

512 46 16 574

520 46 16 582

526 46 16 588

533 46 16 594

541 46 16 603

550 46 16 612

-54

-53

-54

-50

-46

-44

-44

-42

-41

-42

-44

385 135 520

386 130 516

389 131 520

392 131 523

395 132 527

400 132 531

406 132 538

410 132 542

416 132 548

422 132 555

429 133 562

2,800 130 2,930

2,804 131 2,935

2,795 131 2,927

2,864 132 2,996

2,905 132 3,037

2,929 132 3,061

2,957 132 3,089

3,000 132 3,133

3,053 132 3,186

3,093 133 3,226

3,148 133 3,281

-2,410

-2,419

-2,407

-2,472

-2,510

-2,530

-2,552

-2,590

-2,638

-2,671

-2,719

81 12 93

79 4 83

80 4 84

80 4 84

81 4 85

82 4 86

83 4 87

84 4 88

85 4 89

87 4 90

88 4 92

186 4 190

190 4 194

195 4 199

199 4 203

204 4 208

208 4 212

213 4 217

218 4 222

224 4 227

230 4 233

236 4 239

-97

-111

-115

-119

-123

-126

-130

-134

-138

-143

-148

238 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

European Union So oybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Soybeans Area Harvested

362

334

288

Yield

3.00

3.02

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

287

(Thousand Hectares) 279 279 280

280

283

286

290

3.04

3.06

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.08 3.10 3.12

3.14

3.16

3.18

3.20

1,086 692 1,778

1,009 536 1,545

876 708 1,584

879 710 1,589

(Thousand Metric Tons) 861 868 873 716 719 722 1,577 1,586 1,595

880 725 1,605

895 725 1,621

910 724 1,634

928 726 1,654

16,055 1,062 536 17,653

16,243 1,129 708 18,080

16,363 1,077 710 18,149

16,463 1,081 716 18,260

16,557 1,075 719 18,351

16,660 1,079 722 18,462

16,774 1,083 725 18,581

16,879 1,083 725 18,688

16,988 1,086 724 18,799

17,112 1,091 726 18,929

17,235 1,099 728 19,062

-15,951

-16,625

-16,656

-16,760

-16,864

-16,965

-17,076

-17,173

-17,268

-17,385

-17,498

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

12,719 756 13,475

12,995 590 13,585

13,090 555 13,645

13,170 562 13,732

13,245 574 13,820

13,328 584 13,912

13,419 594 14,012

13,504 602 14,105

13,591 607 14,198

13,690 611 14,301

13,788 616 14,404

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

27,871 590 28,461

28,822 555 29,377

28,395 562 28,957

28,674 574 29,248

29,415 584 29,999

29,732 594 30,326

29,783 602 30,385

29,802 607 30,409

30,062 611 30,673

30,177 616 30,792

30,260 623 30,883

-14,986

-15,793

-15,311

-15,516

-16,179

-16,414

-16,372

-16,304

-16,475

-16,491

-16,479

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,880 168 3,048

2,924 174 3,098

2,945 176 3,121

2,963 176 3,139

2,980 176 3,156

2,999 177 3,175

3,019 177 3,196

3,038 177 3,215

3,058 177 3,235

3,080 177 3,257

3,102 177 3,279

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,758 174 1,932

1,806 176 1,982

1,837 176 2,013

1,874 176 2,050

1,921 177 2,098

1,961 177 2,138

2,005 177 2,182

2,044 177 2,221

2,086 177 2,263

2,126 177 2,303

2,164 177 2,341

1,116

1,116

1,108

1,089

1,059

1,037

1,014

994

972

954

938

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 239

Former Soviet Unio on Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Soybeans Area Harvested

484

487

473

Yield

0.80

0.80

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

388 36 424

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

459

(Thousand Hectares) 450 446 443

439

436

434

431

0.81

0.81

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.81 0.81 0.82

0.82

0.82

0.82

0.82

391 41 432

381 41 422

371 42 413

(Thousand Metric Tons) 365 362 361 42 41 41 406 404 402

359 41 400

357 41 399

357 41 398

355 41 397

436 30 41 507

432 45 41 518

435 41 42 518

439 34 42 514

442 26 41 510

448 22 41 511

455 21 41 518

460 19 41 520

467 17 41 525

475 18 41 535

483 20 42 545

-83

-86

-96

-102

-103

-108

-115

-120

-126

-137

-149

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

347 81 428

337 10 347

339 11 350

342 12 354

345 12 357

349 12 361

355 12 367

359 12 371

364 12 376

371 13 383

377 13 390

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

691 10 701

707 11 718

710 12 721

730 12 742

738 12 750

745 12 757

752 12 764

761 12 773

770 13 783

773 13 786

780 13 794

-273

-372

-371

-388

-393

-396

-397

-402

-406

-403

-404

64 20 84

60 14 74

61 14 74

61 14 75

62 13 75

63 13 75

64 12 76

64 11 76

65 11 76

67 10 77

68 10 78

220 14 234

223 14 236

227 14 240

230 13 243

234 13 246

237 12 249

240 11 252

244 11 255

249 10 259

256 10 266

263 10 273

-150

-162

-166

-168

-171

-174

-176

-179

-183

-189

-195

Net Trade

Net Trade

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

240 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Indian Soybean Sec ctor Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

5,700

5,905

5,330

5,384

(Thousand Hectares) 5,542 5,708 5,908

6,091

6,286

6,454

6,619

0.96

0.97

0.97

0.98

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.98 0.99 0.99

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.01

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

5,500 40 5,540

5,701 35 5,736

5,172 38 5,210

5,253 41 5,294

(Thousand Metric Tons) 5,435 5,627 5,854 44 47 50 5,479 5,674 5,904

6,064 53 6,117

6,288 56 6,344

6,486 59 6,545

6,681 62 6,743

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4,750 755 35 5,540

4,672 1,025 38 5,736

4,124 1,046 41 5,210

4,181 1,069 44 5,294

4,336 1,095 47 5,479

4,501 1,123 50 5,674

4,698 1,152 53 5,904

4,877 1,184 56 6,117

5,066 1,220 59 6,344

5,224 1,259 62 6,545

5,432 1,246 65 6,743

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3,720 0 3,720

3,644 0 3,644

3,216 0 3,216

3,261 0 3,261

3,382 0 3,382

3,511 0 3,511

3,665 0 3,665

3,804 0 3,804

3,951 0 3,951

4,075 0 4,075

4,237 0 4,237

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,220 0 1,220

1,244 0 1,244

1,276 0 1,276

1,309 0 1,309

1,342 0 1,342

1,377 0 1,377

1,411 0 1,411

1,447 0 1,447

1,483 0 1,483

1,519 0 1,519

1,556 0 1,556

2,500

2,400

1,940

1,952

2,040

2,134

2,253

2,357

2,468

2,556

2,681

855 30 885

841 30 871

742 30 772

752 30 782

781 30 811

810 30 840

846 30 876

878 30 908

912 30 942

940 30 970

978 30 1,008

1,635 30 1,665

1,668 30 1,698

1,715 30 1,745

1,760 30 1,790

1,805 30 1,835

1,849 30 1,879

1,895 30 1,925

1,941 30 1,971

1,987 30 2,017

2,036 30 2,066

2,085 30 2,115

-780

-827

-973

-1,008

-1,025

-1,039

-1,049

-1,063

-1,075

-1,096

-1,107

Soybeans Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 241

Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Soybeans Area Harvested

110

112

113

Yield

1.73

1.74

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

190 650 840

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

115

(Thousand Hectares) 116 118 119

121

122

124

125

1.76

1.77

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.78 1.80 1.81

1.82

1.84

1.85

1.87

195 560 755

199 561 760

203 558 761

(Thousand Metric Tons) 207 211 216 555 552 548 762 763 764

220 545 765

224 541 766

229 538 767

234 535 768

3,720 1,000 310 560 5,590

3,613 1,003 310 561 5,488

3,618 1,007 310 558 5,494

3,617 1,011 310 555 5,494

3,615 1,015 310 552 5,491

3,612 1,018 310 548 5,488

3,610 1,021 310 545 5,486

3,608 1,025 310 541 5,484

3,605 1,028 310 538 5,481

3,604 1,032 310 535 5,481

3,604 1,036 310 532 5,481

-4,750

-4,767

-4,766

-4,767

-4,771

-4,774

-4,777

-4,781

-4,784

-4,786

-4,787

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,890 546 3,436

2,807 576 3,383

2,811 579 3,389

2,810 578 3,388

2,808 576 3,384

2,806 574 3,379

2,804 571 3,375

2,802 569 3,371

2,801 566 3,367

2,800 564 3,364

2,799 562 3,361

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,760 576 4,336

3,716 579 4,295

3,682 578 4,261

3,681 576 4,257

3,680 574 4,253

3,675 571 4,246

3,661 569 4,230

3,654 566 4,220

3,649 564 4,213

3,644 562 4,206

3,636 561 4,197

-900

-912

-872

-869

-869

-866

-854

-849

-846

-842

-836

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

670 62 732

651 62 713

652 62 714

652 62 714

651 62 713

651 62 713

650 62 712

650 62 712

649 62 711

649 62 711

649 62 711

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

685 62 747

685 62 747

686 62 748

686 62 748

686 62 748

686 62 748

685 62 747

684 62 746

683 62 745

682 62 744

681 62 743

-26

-27

-28

-28

-28

-27

-26

-25

-24

-21

-13

Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

242 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

South Korean Soyb bean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

90

86

81

79

(Thousand Hectares) 78 77 76

75

74

73

72

Yield

1.50

1.51

1.52

1.52

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.53 1.53 1.53

1.53

1.54

1.54

1.54

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

135 100 235

131 110 241

124 96 220

120 100 221

(Thousand Metric Tons) 118 118 116 104 107 110 223 225 226

114 113 227

113 116 229

113 119 232

111 122 233

1,350 440 35 110 1,935

1,388 448 35 96 1,967

1,428 450 35 100 2,013

1,463 453 35 104 2,056

1,498 457 35 107 2,096

1,524 460 35 110 2,129

1,546 464 35 113 2,158

1,572 468 35 116 2,191

1,603 471 35 119 2,228

1,630 475 35 122 2,261

1,652 478 35 125 2,291

-1,700

-1,726

-1,793

-1,835

-1,874

-1,905

-1,932

-1,964

-1,999

-2,029

-2,058

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,075 320 1,395

1,105 300 1,405

1,137 304 1,441

1,166 303 1,468

1,193 297 1,490

1,214 288 1,502

1,232 280 1,512

1,253 274 1,527

1,277 268 1,545

1,299 261 1,560

1,317 256 1,573

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,045 300 2,345

2,177 304 2,482

2,267 303 2,570

2,345 297 2,642

2,391 288 2,679

2,428 280 2,708

2,490 274 2,764

2,577 268 2,844

2,653 261 2,914

2,706 256 2,962

2,759 253 3,012

-950

-1,077

-1,128

-1,174

-1,189

-1,206

-1,252

-1,317

-1,369

-1,402

-1,439

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

237 30 267

236 27 263

243 27 270

249 27 276

255 27 282

259 27 286

263 27 290

267 27 294

272 27 299

277 27 304

281 27 308

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

355 27 382

373 27 400

369 27 396

365 27 392

364 27 391

367 27 394

376 27 403

390 27 417

409 27 436

434 27 461

458 27 485

-120

-137

-126

-116

-109

-108

-113

-122

-136

-157

-177

Soybeans Area Harvested

Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 243

Taiwanese Soybean n Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Yield

2.01

2.03

2.04

2.06

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.07 2.09 2.10

2.12

2.13

2.14

2.16

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2 121 123

2 133 135

2 131 134

2 129 131

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2 2 2 128 127 127 130 129 129

2 126 128

2 126 128

2 125 127

2 124 126

2,050 275 15 133 2,473

2,046 284 15 131 2,477

2,045 288 15 129 2,476

2,044 291 15 128 2,478

2,042 295 15 127 2,479

2,041 299 15 127 2,483

2,040 305 15 126 2,487

2,039 312 15 126 2,492

2,038 319 15 125 2,497

2,038 326 15 124 2,503

2,036 334 15 124 2,509

-2,350

-2,342

-2,343

-2,347

-2,349

-2,354

-2,357

-2,363

-2,369

-2,376

-2,383

Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,630 39 1,669

1,638 39 1,677

1,636 39 1,675

1,635 39 1,674

1,635 39 1,673

1,634 38 1,672

1,633 38 1,671

1,632 38 1,670

1,631 37 1,669

1,631 37 1,668

1,629 37 1,666

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,680 39 1,719

1,694 39 1,733

1,679 39 1,718

1,672 39 1,710

1,660 38 1,699

1,647 38 1,685

1,631 38 1,669

1,626 37 1,664

1,624 37 1,661

1,623 37 1,660

1,622 36 1,658

-50

-56

-43

-36

-26

-13

2

6

7

8

8

Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

340 80 420

339 60 399

339 61 400

339 59 398

339 57 396

339 56 394

338 54 392

338 52 391

338 51 389

338 49 387

338 48 386

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

410 60 470

415 61 476

419 59 479

424 57 481

428 56 484

433 54 487

438 52 491

444 51 495

450 49 499

456 48 504

462 47 509

-50

-76

-79

-83

-88

-93

-98

-104

-110

-117

-123

Soybeans Area Harvested

Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

(Thousand Hectares) 1 1

244 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products World rapeseed price drops by 5 percent in 2001/02, due to a 4.6 percent increase in production and a 3.5 percent decline in world soybean prices. A modest 1 percent annual growth in rapeseed production, coupled with the soybean price recovery, leads to an average annual price increase of 2 percent through the end of the baseline. After a decline of 1.7 mha in 2000/01, world rapeseed area regains 1.3 mha in 2001/02. Over the long term, rapeseed area grows slowly, by about 0.5 percent annually to 25 mha by 2010/11. Production and crush grow just over 1 percent annually, to 39.7 mmt and 37.3 mmt, respectively, by 2010/11 World rapeseed trade declines more than 1 mmt in 2000/01, mainly due to the 1.2 mmt reduction in China’s imports. In the long run, rapeseed trade is projected to grow at an annual rate of about 1 percent to 5.2 mmt by 2010/11. High relative returns in canola in 1998/99 and 1999/00 favored greater Canadian oilseed plantings and reduced wheat and barley area. Insufficient demand led to a buildup of 2 mmt of stocks in 1999/00. High stocks and falling prices in 1999/00 reduce canola area by 15 percent in 2000/01. However, Canadian canola area stabilizes at 4.9 mha in 2001/02 and increases over the remainder of the projection period by 1.2 percent per year. The reduction in oilseed area payments in 2000/01 causes rapeseed to become less attractive to European farmers. Area harvested declines by 12 percent from its all time high of 3.6 mha in 1999/00. As a result of the ban on animal protein meals, a 2.5 percent increase in demand for rapeseed meal boosts rapeseed area in 2001/02 by 2 percent. Equalization of cereal and oilseed compensatory payments abolishes crop-specific payments for oilseeds by 2002/03, and, in response, EU rapeseed area declines by 5 percent, to 3 mha in 2010/11. Rapeseed oil is used widely in industry and as a cooking oil in China, India, and other developing countries. Increasing incomes in these countries drive the growth in demand for rapeseed oil. Chinese rapeseed imports hit a record of 3.7 mmt, making China the largest rapeseed importer in 1999/00. By contrast, China’s trade in rapeseed oil has fallen, partly as a consequence of government actions to limit imports in order to protect domestic crushers. Chinese rapeseed imports fall to 2.5 mmt in 2000/01, due to high carryover stocks and strong domestic production. Import volumes remain near this level throughout the baseline. Chinese rapeseed oil imports increase from 65 tmt in 2000/01 to 800 tmt by 2010/11. Oil consumption in Japan is dominated by soybean oil and rapeseed oil, which are largely consumed as blended oils. Japan is the second largest rapeseed importer, with imports growing to 2.4 mmt by 2010/11. Rapeseed oil is the primary vegetable oil consumed in India. As population and incomes increase, India remains the largest importer of rapeseed oil, increasing imports from 370 tmt in the current year to 803 tmt by 2010/11.

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 245

Rapeseed Trade 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Exporters Canada Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Rest of World

4,200 394 115 -165

3,202 372 150 599

3,202 380 167 833

3,323 379 179 948

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,364 3,423 3,491 393 392 397 192 205 219 964 921 896

3,573 398 233 865

3,632 404 247 813

3,734 410 263 737

3,837 414 276 639

Total Net Exports

4,544

4,322

4,582

4,829

4,913

4,942

5,003

5,069

5,097

5,143

5,166

2,500 -56 0 2,100

2,065 74 0 2,184

2,274 152 0 2,156

2,407 196 0 2,227

2,443 246 0 2,224

2,409 274 0 2,259

2,424 305 0 2,275

2,436 327 0 2,306

2,459 319 0 2,319

2,452 342 0 2,350

2,485 308 0 2,373

Total Net Imports

4,544

4,322

4,582

4,829

4,913

4,942

5,003

5,069

5,097

5,143

5,166

Prices Cash Vancouver CIF Hamburg

192 190

180 181

184 184

183 184

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 197 200 210 194 197 204

214 207

225 216

227 217

233 222

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Exporters Canada China Eastern European Former Soviet Union India

1,215 880 370 19 100

1,313 632 217 18 556

1,300 543 237 20 521

1,329 568 241 21 502

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,407 1,444 1,478 550 592 605 245 264 279 23 28 31 440 412 347

1,514 644 290 35 307

1,584 637 301 38 235

1,592 671 313 41 182

1,606 691 328 44 119

Total Net Exports

2,584

2,736

2,621

2,661

2,666

2,740

2,741

2,789

2,794

2,799

2,787

798 100 1,686

995 23 1,719

896 20 1,705

974 -3 1,690

1,080 -3 1,589

1,122 -27 1,646

1,090 -38 1,689

1,099 -59 1,749

1,108 -69 1,754

1,134 -89 1,755

1,120 -103 1,770

2,584

2,736

2,621

2,661

2,666

2,740

2,741

2,789

2,794

2,799

2,787

148

142

143

141

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 147 148 151

150

154

153

153

Net Importers China European Union India Japan

05/06

Rapeseed Meal Trad ade

Net Importers European Union Japan Rest of World Total Net Imports Price FOB Hamburg

05/06

246 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Rapeseed Oil Trade e Net Exporters Canada Eastern European European Union Japan Total Net Exports

Net Importers China Former Soviet Union India Rest of World Total Net Imports Price FOB Hamburg

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

760 -15 507 -4

801 21 516 -1

811 14 496 -5

824 15 477 0

(Thousand Metric Tons) 857 893 921 9 11 10 461 452 452 -14 -8 -11

940 10 453 -8

970 6 458 -13

986 4 455 -6

1,003 0 456 -6

1,248

1,338

1,316

1,316

1,314

1,349

1,371

1,395

1,421

1,439

1,452

65 116 374 693

195 125 189 829

261 130 265 660

327 131 331 527

396 133 411 374

477 133 477 262

543 134 557 137

610 135 628 22

673 138 713 -103

733 143 790 -228

791 148 803 -291

1,248

1,338

1,316

1,316

1,313

1,348

1,370

1,395

1,420

1,438

1,452

328

338

345

358

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 379 396 419

441

466

486

509

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 247

Rapeseed Area Harvested Million Hectares 25

20

15

10

5

1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

EU

China

2000/01 India

2002/03

Canada

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Eastern Europe

Rapeseed Yield Metric Tons per Hectare

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95 EU

1996/97

1998/99

China

2000/01 India

2002/03 Canada

2004/05

Eastern Europe

2010/11

248 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Rapeseed Trade Million Metric Tons 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

Canada

1998/99

China

Japan

2000/01 EU

2002/03

Rest of World

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Eastern Europe

Rapeseed Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent 8

Dollars per Metric Ton 350

7

325

6

300

5

275

4

250

3

225

2

200

1

175

0

150 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Stock-to-Use Ratio

2000/01

2002/03

2004/05

Rapeseed, CIF Hamburg

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 249

Rapeseed Meal Trade Dollars per Metric Ton

Million Metric Tons 3.0

200

2.5

180

2.0

160 140

1.5

120

1.0

100

.5

80

.0

60

-.5

40

-1.0

20

-1.5

0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

2002/03

Canada India EU

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

China Japan Rapeseed Meal, FOB Hamburg Price

Rape Meal Utilization Million Metric Tons 25

20

15

10

5

0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

China

2000/01

Canada

EU

2002/03 India

2004/05 Japan

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

250 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Rapeseed Oil Trade and Price Dollars per Metric Ton 700

Million Metric Tons 2.0 1.5

600

1.0

500

.5 400 .0 300 -.5 200

-1.0

100

-1.5 -2.0

0 1990/91

1992/93 EU

1994/95

1996/97

Canada

1998/99 China

2000/01 India

2002/03

2004/05

Other

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Rapeseed Oil, FOB Hamburg

Rapeseed Oil Per Capita Consumption Kilograms per Year 25

20

15

10

5

0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97 India

1998/99 China

2000/01

2002/03

Canada

2004/05 EU

2006/07

Japan

2008/09

2010/11

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 251

Canadian Canola Se Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4,816

4,861

4,846

4,940

(Thousand Hectares) 4,992 5,084 5,152

5,227

5,291

5,376

5,450

1.48

1.49

1.50

1.51

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.52 1.53 1.54

1.55

1.56

1.57

1.58

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

7,119 2,065 9,184

7,243 1,084 8,327

7,269 1,110 8,380

7,460 1,116 8,576

(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,588 7,779 7,935 1,125 1,114 1,117 8,713 8,894 9,051

8,101 1,112 9,214

8,254 1,114 9,368

8,440 1,109 9,549

8,611 1,116 9,726

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,200 700 1,084 4,984

3,308 707 1,110 5,125

3,357 705 1,116 5,178

3,413 716 1,125 5,253

3,514 721 1,114 5,349

3,623 731 1,117 5,470

3,711 738 1,112 5,561

3,780 746 1,114 5,641

3,875 753 1,109 5,736

3,937 762 1,116 5,815

4,000 770 1,119 5,889

4,200

3,202

3,202

3,323

3,364

3,423

3,491

3,573

3,632

3,734

3,837

1,830 11 1,841

1,952 31 1,983

1,980 32 2,013

2,013 33 2,046

2,073 33 2,106

2,137 32 2,170

2,189 32 2,222

2,230 32 2,263

2,286 32 2,319

2,323 32 2,355

2,360 32 2,393

595 31 626

637 32 670

680 33 713

683 33 717

667 32 699

693 32 725

711 32 743

716 32 749

703 32 735

731 32 763

754 33 787

1,215

1,313

1,300

1,329

1,407

1,444

1,478

1,514

1,584

1,592

1,606

1,345 23 1,368

1,390 29 1,419

1,410 29 1,439

1,433 29 1,463

1,476 29 1,505

1,522 29 1,551

1,558 29 1,588

1,588 29 1,617

1,627 29 1,657

1,654 29 1,683

1,680 29 1,709

579 29 608

588 29 617

598 29 628

609 29 638

618 29 648

628 29 657

638 29 667

648 29 677

658 29 687

668 29 697

678 29 707

760

801

811

824

857

893

921

940

970

986

1,003

Canola Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Canola Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Canola Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

05/06

252 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Chinese Rapeseed Sector S Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

7,400

7,519

7,297

7,187

(Thousand Hectares) 7,117 7,133 7,096

7,085

7,050

7,053

7,015

1.49

1.51

1.53

1.55

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.57 1.59 1.61

1.63

1.65

1.67

1.69

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

11,026 0 11,026

11,354 0 11,354

11,164 0 11,164

11,140 0 11,140

(Thousand Metric Tons) 11,174 11,341 11,425 0 0 0 11,174 11,341 11,425

11,548 0 11,548

11,633 0 11,633

11,778 0 11,778

11,855 0 11,855

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

12,300 1,200 0 13,500

12,157 1,236 0 13,393

12,243 1,169 0 13,412

12,385 1,136 0 13,521

12,475 1,115 0 13,591

12,604 1,120 0 13,723

12,713 1,109 0 13,822

12,852 1,105 0 13,958

12,971 1,095 0 14,066

13,108 1,096 0 14,204

13,229 1,084 0 14,313

-2,500

-2,065

-2,274

-2,407

-2,443

-2,409

-2,424

-2,436

-2,459

-2,452

-2,485

Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

7,650 0 7,650

7,537 0 7,537

7,591 0 7,591

7,678 0 7,678

7,735 0 7,735

7,814 0 7,814

7,882 0 7,882

7,968 0 7,968

8,042 0 8,042

8,127 0 8,127

8,202 0 8,202

Feed Use Industrial Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,400 4,370 0 6,770

2,540 4,365 0 6,905

2,669 4,379 0 7,048

2,793 4,317 0 7,110

2,911 4,273 0 7,184

3,030 4,192 0 7,222

3,152 4,125 0 7,277

3,272 4,052 0 7,324

3,389 4,016 0 7,405

3,503 3,953 0 7,456

3,614 3,897 0 7,511

880

632

543

568

550

592

605

644

637

671

691

Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4,125 0 4,125

4,078 0 4,078

4,106 0 4,106

4,153 0 4,153

4,183 0 4,183

4,225 0 4,225

4,262 0 4,262

4,307 0 4,307

4,347 0 4,347

4,392 0 4,392

4,432 0 4,432

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4,190 0 4,190

4,273 0 4,273

4,367 0 4,367

4,480 0 4,480

4,579 0 4,579

4,702 0 4,702

4,804 0 4,804

4,918 0 4,918

5,020 0 5,020

5,125 0 5,125

5,222 0 5,222

-65

-195

-261

-327

-396

-477

-543

-610

-673

-733

-791

Rapeseed Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 253

Eastern European Rapeseed R Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Rapeseed Area Harvested

970

972

969

Yield

2.14

2.16

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,080 25 2,105

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

974

(Thousand Hectares) 976 984 988

994

998

1,005

1,008

2.18

2.20

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.22 2.24 2.26

2.28

2.30

2.32

2.34

2,099 13 2,112

2,112 14 2,126

2,143 14 2,156

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,167 2,205 2,234 14 14 14 2,182 2,218 2,247

2,267 14 2,281

2,296 14 2,310

2,331 14 2,345

2,359 14 2,373

1,641 57 13 1,711

1,669 57 14 1,740

1,675 57 14 1,746

1,706 57 14 1,777

1,717 57 14 1,788

1,755 58 14 1,827

1,779 58 14 1,850

1,810 58 14 1,883

1,833 58 14 1,905

1,862 59 14 1,935

1,886 59 14 1,959

394

372

380

379

393

392

397

398

404

410

414

Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

963 26 989

985 14 999

988 16 1,004

1,006 16 1,023

1,013 17 1,030

1,035 17 1,052

1,049 17 1,067

1,068 17 1,086

1,082 18 1,100

1,099 18 1,117

1,113 20 1,132

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

605 14 619

766 16 782

751 16 767

765 17 782

768 17 785

771 17 789

770 17 787

777 18 796

780 18 799

784 20 804

784 20 804

370

217

237

241

245

264

279

290

301

313

328

Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

608 31 639

651 36 687

653 36 689

665 36 701

670 36 705

684 35 720

694 35 729

706 35 741

715 35 750

726 35 761

736 34 770

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

618 36 654

630 36 666

639 36 675

651 36 686

661 35 697

673 35 708

684 35 719

697 35 731

709 35 744

722 34 757

736 34 770

-15

21

14

15

9

11

10

10

6

4

0

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

254 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

European Union Ra apeseed Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

2,664 492 3,156

2,700 517 3,217

2,507 663 3,170

2,495 654 3,149

(Thousand Hectares) 2,464 2,458 2,442 643 638 632 3,107 3,096 3,074

2,429 634 3,063

2,423 634 3,057

2,409 638 3,047

2,414 638 3,052

2.92

2.94

2.96

2.97

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.99 3.01 3.03

3.05

3.06

3.08

3.10

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

9,223 373 9,596

9,453 155 9,608

9,370 147 9,517

9,364 146 9,510

(Thousand Metric Tons) 9,296 9,319 9,308 149 148 150 9,445 9,467 9,458

9,331 150 9,481

9,367 151 9,518

9,390 150 9,540

9,460 151 9,611

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

8,822 563 155 9,540

8,952 583 147 9,682

8,948 575 146 9,669

8,982 575 149 9,706

8,974 568 148 9,690

9,023 568 150 9,741

9,047 565 150 9,762

9,093 564 151 9,808

9,124 563 150 9,837

9,169 562 151 9,882

9,205 563 151 9,919

56

-74

-152

-196

-246

-274

-305

-327

-319

-342

-308

Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

5,144 234 5,378

5,192 117 5,309

5,190 89 5,278

5,210 89 5,299

5,205 92 5,297

5,233 93 5,326

5,247 94 5,342

5,274 95 5,369

5,292 97 5,389

5,318 97 5,415

5,339 99 5,438

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

6,059 117 6,176

6,216 89 6,304

6,085 89 6,174

6,180 92 6,272

6,284 93 6,377

6,353 94 6,448

6,336 95 6,431

6,371 97 6,468

6,400 97 6,498

6,451 99 6,549

6,458 100 6,558

-798

-995

-896

-974

-1,080

-1,122

-1,090

-1,099

-1,108

-1,134

-1,120

Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3,509 374 3,883

3,626 329 3,955

3,624 335 3,959

3,638 335 3,972

3,634 335 3,970

3,654 335 3,989

3,664 334 3,999

3,683 333 4,016

3,695 331 4,026

3,714 329 4,042

3,728 327 4,055

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,047 329 3,376

3,103 335 3,438

3,129 335 3,463

3,160 335 3,495

3,174 335 3,508

3,203 334 3,537

3,214 333 3,547

3,231 331 3,562

3,240 329 3,568

3,260 327 3,587

3,274 326 3,599

507

516

496

477

461

452

452

453

458

455

456

Rapeseed Area Harvested Industrial Area Harvested Total Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 255

Former Soviet Unio on Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Rapeseed Area Harvested

780

818

817

Yield

0.78

0.81

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

610 23 633

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

817

(Thousand Hectares) 812 817 817

820

820

824

823

0.83

0.86

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.88 0.91 0.93

0.96

0.98

1.01

1.03

658 18 676

678 18 696

699 18 717

(Thousand Metric Tons) 715 739 760 19 18 18 733 757 779

783 18 802

804 18 822

828 18 846

848 19 866

470 30 18 518

477 32 18 527

479 32 18 529

488 32 19 538

492 32 18 542

502 32 18 553

509 32 18 559

518 32 18 569

525 32 18 575

533 32 19 584

540 32 19 590

115

150

167

179

192

205

219

233

247

263

276

Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

265 6 271

267 5 272

268 5 273

273 5 278

275 5 280

281 5 286

285 5 290

290 5 295

294 5 299

298 5 304

302 5 307

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

247 5 252

249 5 254

249 5 254

252 5 257

252 5 257

253 5 258

254 5 259

256 5 261

256 5 261

257 5 263

258 5 264

19

18

20

21

23

28

31

35

38

41

44

Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

177 13 190

172 12 184

172 12 184

176 12 188

177 12 189

181 12 193

183 12 195

187 12 198

189 12 201

192 12 203

194 12 206

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

294 12 306

298 12 310

302 12 314

306 12 318

310 12 322

314 12 326

317 12 329

321 12 333

327 12 338

335 12 346

343 12 354

-116

-125

-130

-131

-133

-133

-134

-135

-138

-143

-148

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

256 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Indian Rapeseed Se ector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

5,500

6,521

6,647

6,813

(Thousand Hectares) 6,911 7,076 7,181

7,339

7,455

7,620

7,756

0.80

0.81

0.81

0.81

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.82 0.82 0.83

0.83

0.84

0.84

0.85

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4,400 0 4,400

5,250 0 5,250

5,382 0 5,382

5,549 0 5,549

(Thousand Metric Tons) 5,660 5,828 5,947 0 0 0 5,660 5,828 5,947

6,113 0 6,113

6,243 0 6,243

6,416 0 6,416

6,565 0 6,565

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,900 500 0 4,400

4,750 500 0 5,250

4,882 500 0 5,382

5,049 500 0 5,549

5,160 500 0 5,660

5,328 500 0 5,828

5,447 500 0 5,947

5,613 500 0 6,113

5,743 500 0 6,243

5,916 500 0 6,416

6,065 500 0 6,565

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,600 0 2,600

3,169 0 3,169

3,258 0 3,258

3,370 0 3,370

3,444 0 3,444

3,557 0 3,557

3,637 0 3,637

3,748 0 3,748

3,835 0 3,835

3,951 0 3,951

4,051 0 4,051

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,500 0 2,500

2,614 0 2,614

2,737 0 2,737

2,868 0 2,868

3,004 0 3,004

3,145 0 3,145

3,290 0 3,290

3,441 0 3,441

3,600 0 3,600

3,769 0 3,769

3,931 0 3,931

100

556

521

502

440

412

347

307

235

182

119

Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,277 0 1,277

1,557 21 1,578

1,601 21 1,622

1,656 20 1,676

1,693 19 1,712

1,748 18 1,766

1,788 17 1,805

1,842 16 1,858

1,885 16 1,901

1,942 16 1,958

1,991 16 2,007

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,630 21 1,651

1,746 21 1,767

1,868 20 1,888

1,988 19 2,007

2,105 18 2,123

2,226 17 2,243

2,345 16 2,361

2,470 16 2,486

2,598 16 2,614

2,733 16 2,749

2,795 16 2,811

-374

-189

-265

-331

-411

-477

-557

-628

-713

-790

-803

Rapeseed Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 257

Japanese Rapeseed d Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Yield

2.01

2.01

2.01

2.02

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.02 2.02 2.02

2.02

2.03

2.03

2.03

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2 236 238

2 232 234

2 232 234

2 199 201

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2 2 2 198 202 203 200 204 205

2 205 207

2 206 208

2 209 211

2 209 211

2,100 5 232 2,337

2,181 5 232 2,418

2,186 5 199 2,390

2,224 5 198 2,428

2,218 5 202 2,425

2,256 5 203 2,463

2,270 5 205 2,480

2,302 5 206 2,513

2,312 5 209 2,526

2,346 5 209 2,560

2,369 5 211 2,585

-2,100

-2,184

-2,156

-2,227

-2,224

-2,259

-2,275

-2,306

-2,319

-2,350

-2,373

Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,180 36 1,216

1,227 51 1,278

1,230 51 1,280

1,252 50 1,303

1,248 51 1,299

1,270 50 1,321

1,278 50 1,328

1,297 50 1,347

1,303 50 1,353

1,323 49 1,372

1,336 50 1,385

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,265 51 1,316

1,250 51 1,301

1,250 50 1,300

1,249 51 1,300

1,246 50 1,296

1,243 50 1,293

1,241 50 1,290

1,238 50 1,288

1,235 49 1,285

1,233 50 1,283

1,232 50 1,282

-100

-23

-20

3

3

27

38

59

69

89

103

Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

880 61 941

899 60 959

895 60 955

905 59 965

896 59 956

906 59 966

906 59 965

914 59 973

912 59 971

920 59 980

924 59 983

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

885 60 945

900 60 959

900 59 959

906 59 965

910 59 970

914 59 973

918 59 977

922 59 981

925 59 984

927 59 986

930 59 989

-4

-1

-5

0

-14

-8

-11

-8

-13

-6

-6

Rapeseed Area Harvested

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

(Thousand Hectares) 1 1

258 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Sunflower Seed and Products Sunflower seed area in the world’s major producing countries grows from 14.5 mha in 2000/01 to 15.1 mha in 2010/11. During the same period, total sunflower trade rises from 2.1 mmt to 2.9 mmt. The sunflower seed price lost 43 percent from its peak in 1997/98, and it is anticipated to decrease another 2.1 percent in 2001/02. A substantial reduction in Argentine area initiates a price recovery in 2002/03. Sunflower meal prices are stable throughout the projection period, growing by only 3 percent over the entire decade. After declining 50 percent since 1997/98, the sunflower oil price starts to recover in 2000/01 and increases by 5 percent annually during the projection period. Argentina and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) remain the dominant world producers of sunflower seeds and products. Together they currently produce 62 percent of the world’s sunflower seeds and account for 92 percent of sunflower seed exports. By 2010/11, increased exports from Eastern Europe reduce the Argentine and FSU share of sunflower seed exports to 89 percent, but their share of world production is expected to rise to 65 percent. Unattractive prices prompt Argentine farmers to reduce their sunflower acreage in 2000/01 by 37 percent, mostly in favor of soybeans. The low sunflower production reduces Argentine sunflower seed exports in 2000/01 by 80 percent. Prices are expected to stabilize in 2002/03, generating a modest increase in area. Over the baseline, prices increase by 14 percent, and Argentine sunflower seed area responds by expanding 12 percent. Argentina crushes over 90 percent of its sunflower production domestically and exports 90 percent of its sunflower meal production and 65 percent of its sunflower oil production. These ratios stay constant throughout the baseline. The world sunflower meal market is dominated by sales from Argentina to the European Union, which account for about 80 percent of world trade. After a 30 percent reduction in trade volume in 2000/01, total sunflower meal trade grows 1 percent annually during the projection period. Argentina accounts for 66 percent of sunflower oil exports, while the FSU is a distant second with 26 percent. An 18 percent increase in domestic consumption causes exports from the FSU to decrease by 30 percent during the projection period, which reduces the FSU’s export share to 18 percent in 2010/11. Sunflowers are the dominant oilseed in the FSU. Sunflower area in the FSU shot up by 27 percent to 8.8 mha in 1999/00, but plantings of this magnitude cannot be sustained. Soil exhaustion, a stable demand for corn, and an excess supply on the Russian sunflower seed market put downward pressure on sunflower area in 2000/01, lowering plantings to 7.6 mha. The sunflower area recovers to 8 mha over the baseline. Many large, old Russian crushing plants are plagued by a shortage of capital; problems with storage, transportation, and marketing; debt; and a lack of market orientation. These problems are not expected to be resolved quickly, and the share of domestic sunflower seed production that is crushed declines by 4 percent over the projection period.

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 259

Sunflower Seed Tra ade 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Exporters Argentina Eastern European Former Soviet Union

108 169 1,861

138 346 1,640

172 350 1,824

214 348 1,934

(Thousand Metric Tons) 235 258 271 351 350 345 1,972 2,016 2,054

287 341 2,091

300 336 2,125

324 334 2,178

341 329 2,222

Total Net Exports

2,138

2,125

2,346

2,496

2,558

2,625

2,670

2,720

2,761

2,836

2,892

-4 1,763 379

26 2,286 -188

20 2,478 -152

14 2,457 25

-1 2,551 7

-22 2,617 30

-40 2,685 26

-54 2,747 27

-71 2,803 30

-85 2,875 46

-100 2,926 66

2,138

2,125

2,346

2,496

2,558

2,625

2,670

2,720

2,761

2,836

2,892

194

190

191

193

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 200 205 208

212

217

220

221

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Exporters Argentina China Eastern European Former Soviet Union

1,570 0 91 335

1,427 0 128 350

1,436 0 135 287

1,456 0 117 271

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,482 1,510 1,534 0 0 0 113 125 129 282 306 320

1,556 0 124 326

1,584 0 124 344

1,605 0 123 358

1,626 0 117 368

Total Net Exports

1,996

1,905

1,858

1,843

1,876

1,940

1,983

2,006

2,053

2,086

2,111

1,705 291

1,780 125

1,711 147

1,746 97

1,852 25

1,851 89

1,837 147

1,821 185

1,820 233

1,827 260

1,817 294

1,996

1,905

1,858

1,843

1,876

1,940

1,983

2,006

2,053

2,086

2,111

123

121

120

119

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 122 125 126

125

128

128

127

Net Importers China European Union Rest of World Total Net Imports

CIF Lower Rhine Price

05/06

Sunflower Meal Tra ade

Net Importers European Union Rest of World Total Net Imports

CIF Rotterdam Price

05/06

260 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Sunflower Oil Trade e 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Net Exporters Argentina European Union Former Soviet Union

1,080 121 423

954 105 448

958 121 363

975 124 361

Total Net Exports

1,624

1,507

1,442

0 -9 1,633

-4 24 1,487

1,624

371

Net Importers China Eastern Europe Rest of World Total Net Imports

FOB NW Europe Price

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 995 1,019 1,044 133 149 168 360 362 368

1,066 189 367

1,090 214 358

1,111 230 334

1,131 243 304

1,460

1,488

1,531

1,580

1,622

1,662

1,676

1,678

0 34 1,409

2 35 1,424

4 38 1,446

5 37 1,488

7 37 1,536

8 38 1,575

10 40 1,612

10 42 1,623

12 47 1,620

1,507

1,442

1,460

1,488

1,530

1,579

1,622

1,662

1,675

1,678

385

391

408

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 430 454 479

504

532

556

580

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 261

Sunflower Area Harvested Million Hectares 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

Argentina

1998/99

China

EU

2000/01

2002/03

Eastern Europe

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2008/09

2010/11

Former Soviet Union

Sunflower Yield Metric Tons per Hectare

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95 Argentina

1996/97

1998/99

China

2000/01 EU

2002/03

2004/05

Eastern Europe

2006/07

Former Soviet Union

262 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Sunflower Trade Million Metric Tons 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95 Argentina

1996/97 EU

1998/99

2000/01

Eastern Europe

2002/03

2004/05

Former Soviet Union

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Rest of World

Sunflower Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton

Percent 7

350

6

300

5

250

4

200

3

150

2

100

1

50 0

0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Stock-to-Use Ratio

Sunflower, CIF Lower Rhine Price

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 263

Sunflower Meal Exports Million Metric Tons

Dollars per Metric Ton

3.0

160

2.5

140 120

2.0

100 1.5 80 1.0 60 .5

40

.0

20

-.5

0 1990/91

1992/93

Argentina

1994/95

1996/97

Eastern Europe

1998/99

2000/01

2002/03

2004/05

Former Soviet Union

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Sunflower Meal, CIF Rotterdam Price

Sunflower Meal Imports Million Metric Tons 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 .5 .0 -.5 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99 EU

2000/01

2002/03

Rest of World

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

264 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Sunflower Oil Trade and Price Dollars per Metric Ton

Million Metric Tons 2.5

800

2.0

700

1.5 600 1.0 500

.5 .0

400

-.5

300

-1.0 200 -1.5 100

-2.0 -2.5

0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Argentina

EU

Eastern Europe

Former Soviet Union

Rest of World

Sun Oil, FOB NW Europe Price

Sunflower Oil Per Capita Consumption Kilograms per Year 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

Argentina

1996/97 China

1998/99 EU

2000/01

2002/03

Eastern Europe

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

Former Soviet Union

2010/11

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 265

Argentine Sunflowe er Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

2,200

2,220

2,239

2,277

(Thousand Hectares) 2,303 2,337 2,365

2,392

2,419

2,450

2,476

1.76

1.78

1.80

1.81

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.83 1.84 1.86

1.87

1.89

1.90

1.92

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3,833 133 3,966

3,951 100 4,051

4,019 105 4,124

4,121 106 4,227

(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,203 4,299 4,388 107 105 103 4,310 4,404 4,491

4,473 103 4,576

4,560 103 4,662

4,655 102 4,757

4,741 102 4,843

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,700 58 100 3,858

3,750 58 105 3,913

3,787 59 106 3,952

3,847 59 107 4,013

3,911 59 105 4,075

3,983 60 103 4,146

4,056 60 103 4,219

4,125 61 103 4,289

4,199 61 102 4,362

4,268 61 102 4,432

4,337 62 104 4,503

108

138

172

214

235

258

271

287

300

324

341

1,690 93 1,783

1,575 73 1,648

1,591 74 1,665

1,616 75 1,691

1,642 76 1,718

1,673 75 1,748

1,704 75 1,779

1,733 75 1,808

1,764 76 1,839

1,793 76 1,868

1,822 76 1,898

140 73 213

147 74 221

154 75 229

159 76 235

161 75 236

163 75 238

169 75 245

176 76 252

180 76 255

187 76 263

195 77 272

1,570

1,427

1,436

1,456

1,482

1,510

1,534

1,556

1,584

1,605

1,626

1,610 69 1,679

1,500 48 1,548

1,515 48 1,563

1,539 48 1,587

1,564 48 1,612

1,593 47 1,640

1,622 47 1,669

1,650 46 1,696

1,680 46 1,725

1,707 45 1,752

1,735 45 1,780

551 48 599

546 48 594

557 48 605

564 48 612

569 47 616

574 47 621

580 46 626

585 46 631

590 45 635

597 45 642

604 44 648

1,080

954

958

975

995

1,019

1,044

1,066

1,090

1,111

1,131

Sunflower Seed Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

05/06

266 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Chinese Sunflower Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Sunflower Seed Area Harvested

850

823

816

Yield

1.53

1.55

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,300 0 1,300

Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

808

(Thousand Hectares) 803 802 801

798

798

796

794

1.57

1.59

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.61 1.63 1.65

1.67

1.69

1.71

1.73

1,276 0 1,276

1,281 0 1,281

1,284 0 1,284

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,293 1,308 1,321 0 0 0 1,293 1,308 1,321

1,332 0 1,332

1,348 0 1,348

1,360 0 1,360

1,374 0 1,374

935 295 66 0 1,296

944 293 66 0 1,302

947 289 65 0 1,301

953 281 64 0 1,298

956 273 63 0 1,292

961 264 61 0 1,286

967 254 60 0 1,281

973 246 59 0 1,278

980 239 57 0 1,276

987 232 56 0 1,275

994 224 55 0 1,274

4

-26

-20

-14

1

22

40

54

71

85

100

Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

540 0 540

547 0 547

549 0 549

553 0 553

555 0 555

557 0 557

561 0 561

564 0 564

568 0 568

572 0 572

577 0 577

Feed Use Industrial Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

476 64 0 540

481 77 0 558

486 78 0 564

491 78 0 569

496 79 0 575

501 80 0 581

506 81 0 587

511 81 0 592

516 82 0 598

521 83 0 604

526 84 0 610

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

205 0 205

208 0 208

208 0 208

210 0 210

210 0 210

211 0 211

213 0 213

214 0 214

216 0 216

217 0 217

219 0 219

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

205 0 205

203 0 203

208 0 208

211 0 211

214 0 214

217 0 217

219 0 219

222 0 222

225 0 225

228 0 228

230 0 230

0

4

0

-2

-4

-5

-7

-8

-10

-10

-12

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 267

Eastern European Sunflower S Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1,843

1,914

1,909

1,919

(Thousand Hectares) 1,928 1,942 1,954

1,964

1,975

1,988

1,997

1.09

1.21

1.22

1.23

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.24 1.25 1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.30

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,007 98 2,105

2,316 25 2,341

2,329 27 2,356

2,360 27 2,387

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,390 2,427 2,462 28 27 27 2,418 2,455 2,490

2,494 28 2,522

2,527 28 2,556

2,564 28 2,592

2,596 29 2,625

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,801 74 25 1,900

1,848 120 27 1,995

1,854 125 27 2,007

1,881 131 28 2,039

1,904 136 27 2,067

1,936 141 27 2,104

1,969 147 28 2,145

1,999 153 28 2,181

2,032 160 28 2,220

2,062 167 29 2,258

2,092 175 30 2,297

169

346

350

348

351

350

345

341

336

334

329

Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

902 13 915

924 7 931

927 7 934

940 7 948

952 8 960

968 8 975

985 8 992

1,000 8 1,007

1,016 8 1,024

1,031 8 1,039

1,046 8 1,054

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

817 7 824

795 7 803

792 7 800

823 8 831

840 8 847

843 8 850

855 8 863

876 8 883

891 8 899

908 8 916

928 8 937

91

128

135

117

113

125

129

124

124

123

117

Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

717 91 808

739 47 786

742 47 788

752 47 799

762 46 808

774 46 820

788 45 833

800 45 844

813 44 857

825 44 868

837 43 880

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

752 47 799

764 47 810

776 47 822

787 46 834

800 46 846

812 45 857

825 45 870

838 44 883

853 44 897

867 43 911

884 43 927

9

-24

-34

-35

-38

-37

-37

-38

-40

-42

-47

Sunflower Seed Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

268 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

European Union Su unflower Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1,907 58 1,965

1,899 62 1,961

1,870 78 1,948

1,901 76 1,977

(Thousand Hectares) 1,845 1,826 1,809 73 72 71 1,918 1,898 1,880

1,792 71 1,862

1,784 71 1,855

1,767 71 1,838

1,763 71 1,834

1.88

1.65

1.66

1.68

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.70 1.72 1.74

1.75

1.77

1.79

1.81

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3,688 575 4,263

3,228 319 3,547

3,241 128 3,369

3,324 130 3,455

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,261 3,260 3,264 139 143 147 3,400 3,403 3,411

3,267 151 3,418

3,287 154 3,441

3,291 154 3,445

3,316 157 3,474

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

5,200 413 319 5,932

5,193 513 128 5,834

5,201 516 130 5,847

5,249 523 139 5,911

5,289 520 143 5,952

5,350 522 147 6,019

5,420 524 151 6,096

5,484 527 154 6,165

5,560 530 154 6,244

5,631 532 157 6,320

5,702 536 161 6,399

-1,763

-2,286

-2,478

-2,457

-2,551

-2,617

-2,685

-2,747

-2,803

-2,875

-2,926

Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,655 146 2,801

2,700 122 2,822

2,705 133 2,838

2,729 135 2,865

2,750 140 2,890

2,782 141 2,923

2,818 143 2,961

2,852 145 2,997

2,891 147 3,038

2,928 147 3,076

2,965 149 3,114

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4,384 122 4,506

4,469 133 4,602

4,414 135 4,549

4,471 140 4,611

4,600 141 4,741

4,632 143 4,775

4,653 145 4,798

4,670 147 4,817

4,711 147 4,858

4,753 149 4,902

4,780 151 4,932

-1,705

-1,780

-1,711

-1,746

-1,852

-1,851

-1,837

-1,821

-1,820

-1,827

-1,817

Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,154 254 2,408

2,181 205 2,386

2,184 241 2,426

2,204 240 2,445

2,221 242 2,463

2,247 238 2,485

2,276 233 2,509

2,303 225 2,528

2,335 213 2,548

2,365 198 2,563

2,395 187 2,582

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,082 205 2,287

2,040 241 2,282

2,064 240 2,304

2,078 242 2,320

2,092 238 2,330

2,103 233 2,336

2,116 225 2,341

2,126 213 2,339

2,136 198 2,334

2,146 187 2,333

2,162 177 2,339

121

105

121

124

133

149

168

189

214

230

243

Sunflower Seed Area Harvested Industrial Area Harvested Total Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 269

Former Soviet Unio on Sunflower Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

7,635

7,579

7,571

7,685

(Thousand Hectares) 7,719 7,774 7,825

7,870

7,915

7,973

8,023

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.04

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.05 1.06 1.07

1.08

1.08

1.09

1.10

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

7,814 285 8,099

7,792 178 7,970

7,844 179 8,023

8,023 177 8,200

(Thousand Metric Tons) 8,121 8,240 8,357 177 177 177 8,298 8,417 8,534

8,468 177 8,645

8,580 178 8,757

8,707 178 8,884

8,825 178 9,003

Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use

5,341 439 178 5,958

5,429 722 179 6,329

5,296 725 177 6,198

5,353 736 177 6,266

5,407 742 177 6,326

5,473 750 177 6,401

5,546 758 177 6,481

5,612 765 178 6,554

5,681 774 178 6,633

5,743 786 178 6,707

5,805 798 178 6,780

1,861

1,640

1,824

1,934

1,972

2,016

2,054

2,091

2,125

2,178

2,222

Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,204 5 2,209

2,226 5 2,231

2,171 5 2,176

2,195 5 2,200

2,217 5 2,222

2,244 5 2,249

2,274 5 2,279

2,301 5 2,306

2,329 5 2,334

2,355 5 2,360

2,380 5 2,385

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,869 5 1,874

1,876 5 1,881

1,884 5 1,889

1,924 5 1,929

1,935 5 1,940

1,939 5 1,944

1,954 5 1,959

1,975 5 1,980

1,985 5 1,990

1,997 5 2,002

2,012 5 2,017

335

350

287

271

282

306

320

326

344

358

368

Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,170 97 2,267

2,226 89 2,315

2,171 89 2,260

2,195 89 2,284

2,217 89 2,305

2,244 89 2,333

2,274 88 2,362

2,301 88 2,389

2,329 88 2,417

2,355 88 2,443

2,380 88 2,468

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,755 89 1,844

1,778 89 1,867

1,808 89 1,897

1,834 89 1,922

1,857 89 1,946

1,882 88 1,971

1,906 88 1,995

1,934 88 2,022

1,971 88 2,059

2,021 88 2,108

2,075 88 2,163

423

448

363

361

360

362

368

367

358

334

304

Sunflower Seed Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

270 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Palm Oil Complex Malaysia and Indonesia are the major producers of palm oil and related products, accounting for more than 75 percent of total world production. Major importing countries include India, China, and the EU. Malaysian palm oil production increases from 11.40 mmt in 2000/01 to 14.55 mmt in 2010/11, and net exports increase from 9.35 mmt to 11.96 mmt by 2010/11. Indonesian palm oil production grows 66 percent over the baseline, and net exports increase more than 90 percent, reaching 6.97 mmt by 2010/11. India is the world’s largest importer of palm oil, importing 3.50 mmt in 2000/01. Growing income and population cause palm oil consumption in India to expand, driving imports up to 5.62 mmt by 2010/11. Palm oil imports receive more favorable treatment than other vegetable oils in China because palm oil is not produced domestically and does not compete directly with domestically produced soft oils. China’s palm oil imports increase from 1.50 mmt in the current year to 2.26 mmt by 2010/11. The EU accounts for the bulk of world trade in palm kernel meal. EU imports grew rapidly in the 1980s and early 1990s but have stabilized in recent years. EU palm kernel meal imports average 2.2 mmt over the baseline. EU palm oil and palm kernel oil imports grow 212 tmt and 82 tmt, respectively, by 2010/11.

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 271

Palm Trade 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

9,350 3,595

9,853 4,234

10,201 4,304

12,945

14,087

1,500 2,215 3,500 5,595 135

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

10,565 4,638

(Thousand Metric Tons) 10,903 11,158 11,349 4,988 5,168 5,382

11,500 5,639

11,643 5,923

11,771 6,286

11,873 6,667

14,506

15,204

15,891

16,326

16,731

17,139

17,566

18,057

18,539

1,767 2,199 4,001 5,982 138

1,821 2,217 4,212 6,116 140

1,915 2,243 4,452 6,453 140

2,026 2,280 4,685 6,761 139

2,088 2,300 4,874 6,925 139

2,124 2,320 5,035 7,113 139

2,144 2,341 5,195 7,320 139

2,166 2,368 5,363 7,530 139

2,188 2,388 5,562 7,780 139

2,260 2,427 5,612 8,102 139

12,945

14,087

14,506

15,204

15,891

16,326

16,731

17,139

17,566

18,057

18,539

1,680 800 -314

1,780 830 -497

1,806 863 -578

1,876 957 -753

1,899 1,027 -797

1,945 1,049 -854

1,958 1,076 -897

1,991 1,102 -959

2,003 1,127 -962

2,025 1,149 -989

2,029 1,167 -1,003

2,166

2,113

2,091

2,081

2,128

2,139

2,136

2,134

2,168

2,185

2,193

2,222 -56

2,169 -56

2,147 -56

2,137 -56

2,184 -56

2,195 -56

2,192 -56

2,190 -56

2,224 -56

2,241 -56

2,249 -56

2,166

2,113

2,091

2,081

2,128

2,139

2,136

2,134

2,168

2,185

2,193

600 560

678 609

696 643

766 725

789 786

835 821

854 871

886 930

900 1,002

919 1,077

918 1,154

1,160

1,287

1,339

1,491

1,575

1,656

1,725

1,816

1,902

1,996

2,072

576 485 99

587 602 99

590 649 99

600 792 99

612 864 99

620 938 99

627 998 99

634 1,083 99

642 1,161 99

648 1,249 99

658 1,315 99

1,160

1,287

1,339

1,491

1,575

1,656

1,725

1,816

1,902

1,996

2,072

307 521 77

291 505 73

296 510 72

301 515 74

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 308 326 352 522 540 565 76 78 80

381 593 81

413 624 83

441 652 84

458 669 85

Palm Oil Net Exporters Malaysia Indonesia Total Net Exports Net Importers China European Union India Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports

Palm Kernel Meal Net Exporters Malaysia Indonesia Rest of World Total Net Exports Net Importers European Union Residual Total Net Imports

Palm Kernel Oil Net Exporters Malaysia Indonesia Total Net Exports Net Importers European Union Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports

CIF Rotterdam Prices Palm Oil Palm Kernel Oil Palm Kernel Meal

272 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Palm Oil Trade and Price Million Metric Tons

Dollars per Metric Ton

20

700

15

600

10

500

5

400

0

300

-5

200

-10

100

-15

0 1990/91

1992/93 Malaysia

1994/95

1996/97

India

1998/99

2000/01

Indonesia

2002/03

China

2004/05

EU

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Palm Oil, CIF Rotterdam Price

Palm Oil Per Capita Consumption Kilograms per Year 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97 China

1998/99 EU

2000/01

2002/03 India

2004/05

2006/07

Indonesia

2008/09

2010/11

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 273

Chinese Palm Oil Su Supply and Utilization Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

1,500 0 1,500

1,767 0 1,767

1,821 0 1,821

1,915 0 1,915

2,026 0 2,026

2,088 0 2,088

2,124 0 2,124

2,144 0 2,144

2,166 0 2,166

2,188 0 2,188

2,260 0 2,260

1,500

1,767

1,821

1,915

2,026

2,088

2,124

2,144

2,166

2,188

2,260

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 110 111 111 110 111 111

0 109 109

0 108 108

0 107 107

0 105 105

European Union Pa alm Oil Supply and Utilization Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Palm Kernel Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Palm Kernel Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

0 109 109

0 105 105

0 110 110

0 109 109

2,219 105 2,324

2,225 110 2,335

2,252 109 2,361

2,275 110 2,385

2,309 111 2,420

2,329 111 2,439

2,350 109 2,460

2,371 108 2,479

2,399 107 2,505

2,419 105 2,525

2,456 105 2,561

-2,215

-2,230

-2,252

-2,276

-2,310

-2,328

-2,349

-2,370

-2,397

-2,418

-2,456

5 0 5

1 0 1

2 0 2

1 0 1

1 0 1

1 0 1

1 0 1

1 0 1

1 0 1

2 0 2

2 0 2

2,227 0 2,227

2,171 0 2,171

2,150 0 2,150

2,139 0 2,139

2,186 0 2,186

2,196 0 2,196

2,194 0 2,194

2,192 0 2,192

2,226 0 2,226

2,243 0 2,243

2,251 0 2,251

-2,222

-2,170

-2,148

-2,137

-2,185

-2,196

-2,193

-2,191

-2,224

-2,242

-2,249

5 10 15

2 1 3

4 2 6

3 2 5

2 2 4

2 2 4

2 2 4

3 2 4

3 2 5

4 2 6

4 2 6

590 1 591

596 2 597

603 2 605

611 2 612

621 2 623

628 2 630

636 2 638

643 2 645

652 2 654

659 2 661

669 2 671

-576

-594

-599

-608

-619

-627

-634

-641

-649

-655

-665

274 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Indian Palm Oil Sup pply and Utilization Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

60 500 560

64 260 324

69 256 324

73 252 325

(Thousand Metric Tons) 77 81 86 250 248 247 328 330 332

90 244 334

94 242 337

99 240 339

103 238 341

3,800 260 4,060

4,069 256 4,325

4,285 252 4,537

4,527 250 4,777

4,764 248 5,012

4,957 247 5,203

5,123 244 5,367

5,287 242 5,530

5,459 240 5,700

5,663 238 5,901

5,717 236 5,953

-3,500

-4,001

-4,212

-4,452

-4,685

-4,874

-5,035

-5,195

-5,363

-5,562

-5,612

05/06

Indonesian Palm Oiil Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

6,800 255 7,055

7,619 435 8,054

8,062 397 8,459

8,559 434 8,993

(Thousand Metric Tons) 9,076 9,346 9,659 421 407 386 9,497 9,753 10,044

10,006 362 10,368

10,385 338 10,723

10,804 314 11,118

11,252 294 11,546

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,025 435 3,460

3,423 397 3,820

3,720 434 4,155

3,933 421 4,355

4,101 407 4,509

4,199 386 4,585

4,301 362 4,662

4,391 338 4,729

4,486 314 4,800

4,538 294 4,832

4,600 278 4,879

3,595

4,234

4,304

4,638

4,988

5,168

5,382

5,639

5,923

6,286

6,667

1,042 95 1,137

1,134 107 1,241

1,186 113 1,299

1,299 114 1,414

1,388 113 1,501

1,442 111 1,553

1,517 109 1,626

1,604 108 1,712

1,708 107 1,815

1,814 105 1,920

1,925 104 2,030

230 107 337

298 113 411

322 114 436

343 113 456

363 111 474

395 109 504

443 108 551

504 107 610

583 105 688

666 104 770

758 104 862

800

830

863

957

1,027

1,049

1,076

1,102

1,127

1,149

1,167

Palm Kernel Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

870 60 930

942 65 1,007

991 70 1,061

1,092 69 1,161

1,173 69 1,241

1,224 68 1,292

1,293 64 1,357

1,373 58 1,431

1,467 52 1,518

1,564 45 1,608

1,665 39 1,704

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

305 65 370

328 70 397

349 69 418

368 69 437

388 68 455

407 64 471

428 58 486

449 52 501

472 45 516

493 39 531

515 35 550

560

609

643

725

786

821

871

930

1,002

1,077

1,154

Net Trade

Palm Kernel Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Net Trade

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 275

Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Palm Kernel Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Palm Kernel Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11,400 1,330 12,730

11,792 1,550 13,342

12,205 1,554 13,758

12,640 1,557 14,197

(Thousand Metric Tons) 13,051 13,378 13,639 1,561 1,564 1,567 14,612 14,942 15,206

13,863 1,571 15,434

14,079 1,574 15,653

14,286 1,577 15,863

14,474 1,581 16,055

1,860 1,550 3,410

1,936 1,554 3,489

2,000 1,557 3,557

2,071 1,561 3,632

2,145 1,564 3,709

2,217 1,567 3,784

2,287 1,571 3,858

2,360 1,574 3,934

2,433 1,577 4,010

2,511 1,581 4,092

2,598 1,584 4,182

9,350

9,853

10,201

10,565

10,903

11,158

11,349

11,500

11,643

11,771

11,873

1,790 227 2,017

1,915 209 2,124

1,949 211 2,161

2,018 212 2,230

2,037 212 2,248

2,082 211 2,294

2,097 211 2,309

2,131 212 2,343

2,146 212 2,358

2,173 212 2,385

2,185 212 2,397

128 209 337

133 211 344

143 212 355

142 212 354

138 211 350

138 211 349

139 212 350

141 212 352

143 212 355

148 212 360

156 212 368

1,680

1,780

1,806

1,876

1,899

1,945

1,958

1,991

2,003

2,025

2,029

1,430 100 1,530

1,544 105 1,649

1,599 112 1,710

1,680 132 1,812

1,719 142 1,861

1,779 146 1,925

1,811 144 1,955

1,859 136 1,996

1,890 125 2,015

1,929 111 2,040

1,954 96 2,050

825 105 930

860 112 971

882 132 1,014

904 142 1,046

925 146 1,072

946 144 1,089

965 136 1,101

984 125 1,109

1,004 111 1,115

1,025 96 1,121

1,048 84 1,132

600

678

696

766

789

835

854

886

900

919

918

276 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Peanuts World peanut area grows 7 percent in the coming decade. Significant yield improvements in China increase total production by 22 percent over the baseline. The EU is, by far, the largest importer of peanuts and peanut meal. EU peanut imports account for roughly 40 percent of total peanut trade, and the EU is the only significant importer of peanut meal. China’s peanut area increases from 4.50 mha to 5.20 mha over the next decade, contributing to the 18.6 percent growth in production. China remains the largest peanut producer, producing 15.36 mmt at the end of the projection period. About half of Chinese peanut output is consumed directly as food and the other half is crushed. Both Chinese peanut meal and peanut oil production increase slightly. China’s food use of peanuts increases from 6.09 mmt to 8.36 mmt due to growth in income and population, while peanut crush rises slightly to 6.5 mmt. Growing Chinese demand for peanut oil is met largely by imports, which increase to 338 tmt in 2010/11. Unlike China, about 80 percent of the peanuts grown in India are processed for oil to meet the growing domestic demand for vegetable oils. More hectares of peanuts are harvested in India than in any other nation, with peanut area reaching 8.23 mha in 2010/11. However, total output reaches only 7.81 mmt in 2010/11, due to extremely low productivity.

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 277

Peanut Trade Peanut Net Exporters China India United States Total Net Exports Net Importers European Union Rest of World Total Net Imports

Peanut Meal Net Exporters China India United States Rest of World Total Net Exports Net Importers European Union Total Net Imports

Peanut Oil Net Exporters United States Rest of World Total Net Exports Net Importers China European Union Total Net Imports

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

400 260 219

387 553 244

375 826 261

374 685 259

880

1,183

1,463

421 459

444 739

880

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 381 393 406 572 468 398 261 262 261

419 317 262

431 235 262

444 162 263

457 -15 262

1,318

1,214

1,122

1,065

998

929

869

704

444 1,019

447 871

450 765

452 670

454 611

455 543

456 473

458 412

459 246

1,183

1,463

1,318

1,214

1,122

1,065

998

929

869

704

0 50 9 128

18 50 9 106

3 50 9 122

-5 50 9 129

-7 50 9 133

-4 50 9 131

-1 50 9 128

2 50 9 125

3 50 9 124

5 50 9 122

6 50 9 120

187

183

184

183

185

186

186

185

187

186

186

187

183

184

183

185

186

186

185

187

186

186

187

183

184

183

185

186

186

185

187

186

186

1 123

1 203

1 388

1 493

1 537

1 522

1 507

1 491

1 485

1 485

1 481

124

204

389

494

538

523

508

492

486

486

482

0 124

79 125

267 122

369 125

410 128

394 130

376 132

357 135

347 138

345 141

338 144

124

204

389

494

538

523

508

492

485

486

482

278 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Peanut Area Harvested Million Hectares 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99 China

2000/01

2002/03

2004/05

India

United States

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Peanut Trade Million Metric Tons 2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

.5

.0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

Peanuts

2000/01

Peanut Meal

2002/03

2004/05

Peanut Oil

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 279

U.S. Peanut Supply y and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Peanut Area Harvested

532

584

614

Yield

2.80

2.94

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,491 559 2,051

Consumption Crush Ending Stocks Domestic Use

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

610

(Thousand Hectares) 615 616 617

619

620

621

622

2.94

2.96

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.97 2.98 3.00

3.01

3.02

3.03

3.05

1,719 369 2,088

1,808 355 2,163

1,805 374 2,179

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,826 1,838 1,849 373 375 375 2,199 2,213 2,224

1,862 374 2,236

1,874 374 2,247

1,884 373 2,257

1,895 373 2,267

1,462 310 369 1,831

1,489 312 355 1,844

1,528 326 374 1,902

1,547 326 373 1,920

1,563 328 375 1,938

1,576 329 375 1,951

1,589 330 374 1,962

1,600 331 374 1,974

1,611 332 373 1,985

1,622 334 373 1,995

1,633 334 372 2,005

Net Trade

219

244

261

259

261

262

261

262

262

263

262

Peanut Meal Production Consumption Ending Stocks Net Trade

133 132 5 9

134 125 5 9

140 131 5 9

140 131 5 9

141 132 5 9

141 132 5 9

142 133 5 9

142 133 5 9

143 134 5 9

143 134 5 9

144 135 5 9

Peanut Oil Production Consumption Ending Stocks Net Trade

100 102 13 1

101 94 19 1

105 103 19 1

105 104 19 1

106 105 20 1

106 105 20 1

106 105 20 1

107 106 20 1

107 106 20 1

108 106 20 1

108 107 20 1

280 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Chinese Peanut Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4,500

4,617

4,454

4,407

(Million Hectares) 4,452 4,561 4,680

4,796

4,904

5,013

5,120

2.89

2.82

2.84

2.86

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.88 2.90 2.92

2.94

2.96

2.98

3.00

Peanut Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

13,005 0 13,005

13,021 0 13,021

12,649 0 12,649

12,604 0 12,604

(Thousand Metric Tons) 12,821 13,226 13,667 0 0 0 12,821 13,226 13,667

14,100 0 14,100

14,516 0 14,516

14,939 0 14,939

15,361 0 15,361

Feed and Food Use Crush Ending Stocks Domestic Use

6,090 6,510 0 12,600

6,325 6,310 0 12,634

6,461 5,812 0 12,273

6,644 5,587 0 12,230

6,851 5,589 0 12,441

7,073 5,760 0 12,833

7,307 5,954 0 13,261

7,550 6,131 0 13,681

7,804 6,280 0 14,085

8,080 6,415 0 14,495

8,359 6,545 0 14,904

400

387

375

374

381

393

406

419

431

444

457

Peanut Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,543 0 2,543

2,461 0 2,461

2,267 0 2,267

2,179 0 2,179

2,180 0 2,180

2,246 0 2,246

2,322 0 2,322

2,391 0 2,391

2,449 0 2,449

2,502 0 2,502

2,552 0 2,552

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,543 0 2,543

2,443 0 2,443

2,264 0 2,264

2,184 0 2,184

2,187 0 2,187

2,251 0 2,251

2,323 0 2,323

2,390 0 2,390

2,446 0 2,446

2,497 0 2,497

2,546 0 2,546

0

18

3

-5

-7

-4

-1

2

3

5

6

Peanut Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,020 0 2,020

1,957 0 1,957

1,803 0 1,803

1,734 0 1,734

1,735 0 1,735

1,788 0 1,788

1,849 0 1,849

1,905 0 1,905

1,952 0 1,952

1,995 0 1,995

2,035 0 2,035

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,020 0 2,020

1,981 0 1,981

1,890 0 1,890

1,851 0 1,851

1,855 0 1,855

1,890 0 1,890

1,929 0 1,929

1,964 0 1,964

1,994 0 1,994

2,021 0 2,021

2,047 0 2,047

0

-79

-267

-369

-410

-394

-376

-357

-347

-345

-338

Peanut Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 281

European Union Pe eanut Supply and Utilization Peanut Area Harvested

Yield

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Crush Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Peanut Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Peanut Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

1

1

1

1

1.00

1.00

1.00

1 34 35

1 34 35

422 18 34 474

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1

1

1

1

1

1.00

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.00 1.00 1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1 36 37

1 36 37

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1 1 1 37 37 37 38 38 38

1 38 39

1 38 39

1 38 39

1 38 39

443 29 36 508

445 29 36 510

447 29 37 513

450 29 37 516

453 29 37 519

455 29 38 521

456 29 38 523

457 29 38 524

458 29 38 526

460 29 39 527

-421

-444

-444

-447

-450

-452

-454

-455

-456

-458

-459

8 2 10

15 0 15

15 0 15

15 0 15

15 0 15

15 0 15

15 0 15

15 0 15

15 0 15

15 0 15

15 0 15

197 0 197

198 0 198

199 0 199

197 0 197

199 0 199

200 0 200

201 0 201

200 0 200

201 0 201

201 0 201

200 0 201

-187

-183

-184

-183

-185

-186

-186

-185

-187

-186

-186

8 11 19

14 9 23

14 14 28

14 14 28

14 16 30

14 17 31

14 18 32

14 19 32

14 19 33

14 19 33

14 19 33

134 9 143

134 14 148

136 14 150

138 16 153

140 17 157

143 18 161

146 19 164

149 19 167

152 19 171

155 19 174

158 19 177

-124

-125

-122

-125

-128

-130

-132

-135

-138

-141

-144

(Million Hectares) 1 1

282 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Indian Peanut Supp ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

8,100

7,914

8,231

8,182

(Million Hectares) 8,166 8,174 8,193

8,216

8,231

8,234

8,233

0.75

0.95

0.95

0.95

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.95 0.95 0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

0.95

Peanut Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

6,100 0 6,100

7,516 1 7,517

7,816 2 7,818

7,769 3 7,772

(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,752 7,758 7,775 4 6 7 7,756 7,763 7,781

7,796 8 7,803

7,808 9 7,817

7,810 10 7,821

7,807 11 7,819

Feed and Food Use Crush Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,495 4,344 1 5,840

1,596 5,367 2 6,965

1,611 5,378 3 6,992

1,624 5,459 4 7,087

1,636 5,542 6 7,184

1,649 5,640 7 7,296

1,662 5,714 8 7,384

1,676 5,802 9 7,487

1,689 5,883 10 7,582

1,704 5,943 11 7,658

1,714 6,107 12 7,833

260

553

826

685

572

468

398

317

235

162

-15

Peanut Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,885 0 1,885

2,254 0 2,254

2,259 0 2,259

2,293 0 2,293

2,328 0 2,328

2,369 0 2,369

2,400 0 2,400

2,437 0 2,437

2,471 0 2,471

2,496 0 2,496

2,565 0 2,565

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,825 0 1,835

2,194 0 2,204

2,199 0 2,209

2,233 0 2,243

2,268 0 2,278

2,309 0 2,319

2,340 0 2,350

2,377 0 2,387

2,411 0 2,421

2,436 0 2,446

2,505 0 2,515

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

Peanut Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,295 0 1,295

1,556 0 1,556

1,560 0 1,560

1,583 0 1,583

1,607 0 1,607

1,636 0 1,636

1,657 0 1,657

1,683 0 1,683

1,706 0 1,706

1,723 0 1,723

1,771 0 1,771

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,295 0 1,295

1,556 0 1,556

1,560 0 1,560

1,583 0 1,583

1,607 0 1,607

1,636 0 1,636

1,657 0 1,657

1,683 0 1,683

1,706 0 1,706

1,723 0 1,723

1,771 0 1,771

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Peanut Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade

Net Trade

Net Trade

05/06

WORLD COTTON

284 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Cotton World cotton prices, as reflected by the A-Index, close out the 2000/01 marketing year at $1,435/mt. This represents a significant rebound from last year’s $1,165/mt, which was the lowest in 15 years. While prices rebound in 2000/01, prices over the remainder of the projection period, although strengthening, are at the lower end of the historical price range. Brazilian cotton area rebounds to 0.89 mha in 2000/01 and shows strong growth, reaching 1.59 mha by 2010/11. The strong growth in cotton area is from new acreage in the Mato Grosso region. With the new area coming on-line, Brazilian production surges to 1.19 mmt by the end of the production period, most of which is projected to be consumed domestically. China continues to liquidate its stocks, with ending stocks falling to 3.28 mmt in 2000/01 and continuing to fall until 2005/06, bottoming out at 1.56 mmt. Stocks build moderately thereafter as production increases. In 2000/01, China returns to its position as a net importer, with 68,000 mt of cotton imports, well below the volume of much of the 1990s. As China completes its reduction in stock holding, its net imports are expected to grow, reaching 423,000 mt by 2001/02 and reaching 707,000 by 2010/11. World cotton consumption remains flat in 2000/01 at 20 mmt. Consumption growth in the first half of the projection period is moderately strong, with growth in excess of 1 percent annually, but it falls to just under 1 percent in the second half, matching population growth. Consumption growth during the projection period occurs primarily in countries with large cotton production, such as Australia, India, Pakistan, and, in the projection period, Brazil. Australian cotton area remained flat in 2000/01 at 0.47 mha. It shows moderate growth in the projection period, up to 0.60 mha by 2010/11, accompanied by a modest 0.45% annual yield growth.

World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 285

Cotton Trade 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Exporters Africa Argentina Australia India Other Former Soviet Union Other Latin America Other Middle East Pakistan Turkey United States Uzbekistan

795 106 698 -250 281 -99 229 90 -362 1,585 783

1,014 124 719 -258 222 -93 261 133 -397 1,845 738

1,021 141 741 -259 212 -93 270 -16 -402 1,880 745

1,026 154 770 -263 202 -97 277 -15 -409 1,901 749

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,033 1,040 1,046 163 169 172 794 817 839 -269 -277 -286 194 185 177 -102 -107 -113 283 288 293 -16 -17 -19 -417 -427 -438 1,934 1,970 2,005 751 751 749

1,052 174 861 -296 168 -120 297 -20 -449 2,038 747

1,057 176 883 -306 160 -127 300 -21 -461 2,071 745

1,062 177 905 -317 150 -134 303 -21 -473 2,102 743

1,067 180 926 -329 139 -142 305 -20 -486 2,130 740

Total Net Exports

3,857

4,308

4,241

4,295

4,347

4,392

4,425

4,452

4,476

4,495

4,510

Net Importers Brazil Canada China Eastern Europe European Union Japan Mexico Other Asia Other Western Europe Russia South Korea Taiwan Residual

142 75 68 196 576 245 432 1,223 35 353 296 215 0

271 76 423 199 530 251 403 1,205 36 343 304 266 0

220 77 393 199 500 260 421 1,223 36 346 300 265 0

162 78 495 200 482 261 426 1,239 36 355 299 263 0

109 79 590 201 466 257 433 1,256 36 360 298 262 0

76 79 657 202 454 252 438 1,274 36 364 297 262 0

53 80 698 203 445 248 443 1,295 36 366 297 261 0

38 80 718 206 438 244 450 1,317 36 367 297 261 0

31 81 725 209 430 241 458 1,341 36 366 296 261 0

28 82 721 214 423 238 466 1,367 36 365 296 260 0

27 82 707 222 415 235 474 1,394 36 363 295 260 0

Total Net Imports

3,857

4,308

4,241

4,295

4,347

4,392

4,425

4,452

4,476

4,495

4,510

1,435

1,511

1,533

1,544

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,566 1,588 1,607

1,626

1,645

1,667

1,691

1,237

1,221

1,227

1,238

1,295

1,313

1,332

1,353

Cotton Prices Cotlook A Index * CIF Northern Europe U.S. Farm Price

1,250

05/06

1,263

1,278

* The "A" index is the average of the fi five lowest CIF Northern European quotes of the following descriptions (Middling 1-3/32"): Memphis; Calif./Ar Ariz.; Mexican; Central American; Paraguayan; Turkish Izmir/Antalya; Central Asian; Pakistani 1503; Indian n H-4; Chinese 329; African 'Franc Zone'; Tanzanian; Greek; and Australian. Source: Cotlook, Ltd., Liverpool, Engla land.

286 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Cotton Net Exports Million Metric Tons 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

U.S. Exports

2002/03

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Non U.S. Exports

World Cotton Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent

Dollars per Metric Ton 2,500

60

50

2,000

40 1,500 30 1,000 20 500

10

0

0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 ROW

U.S.

China

A-Index

World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 287

Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization Million Metric Tons 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 .0 -1.0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

Production

1998/99

2000/01

Consumption

2002/03

2004/05

Net Imports

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Ending Stocks

World Cotton Consumption Million Metric Tons 25

20

15

10

5

1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Non Producers

2002/03 Producers

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

288 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Cotton Suppl ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

32,007

33,485

33,957

598

598

Production

19,156

Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Area Harvested

Yield

Loss

Stock to Use Ratio

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

34,374

(Thousand Hectares) 34,669 34,888 35,053

35,183

35,289

35,381

35,469

601

605

(Kilograms per Hectare) 609 613 618

622

627

631

636

20,013

20,398

20,780

(Thousand Metric Tons) 21,105 21,394 21,651

21,887

22,113

22,331

22,547

8,077 19,999

7,684 20,366

7,423 20,620

7,288 20,875

7,263 21,091

7,316 21,301

7,411 21,516

7,538 21,721

7,679 21,932

7,844 22,126

8,029 22,323

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40

40.39

37.73

36.00

34.91

34.43

(Percent) 34.35

34.45

34.70

35.01

35.45

35.97

05/06

U.S. Cotton Supply y and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

5,300

5,738

5,569

5,534

(Thousand Hectares) 5,531 5,537 5,540

5,539

5,540

5,540

5,532

707

724

729

735

(Kilograms per Hectare) 740 744 749

753

757

761

766

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

3,749 854 4,603

4,154 883 5,037

4,060 1,003 5,062

4,067 999 5,066

(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,091 4,122 4,148 986 971 957 5,077 5,093 5,105

4,171 939 5,111

4,196 918 5,114

4,219 894 5,113

4,236 868 5,103

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,133 883 3,016

2,187 1,003 3,190

2,181 999 3,180

2,177 986 3,163

2,170 971 3,141

2,164 957 3,120

2,158 939 3,098

2,153 918 3,071

2,147 894 3,041

2,141 868 3,008

2,134 837 2,971

1,585

1,845

1,880

1,901

1,934

1,970

2,005

2,038

2,071

2,102

2,130

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade Loss

World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 289

African Cotton Supp pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

4,264

4,364

4,341

4,338

(Thousand Hectares) 4,339 4,344 4,351

4,357

4,360

4,364

4,368

321

376

377

378

(Kilograms per Hectare) 379 380 381

382

383

384

385

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,368 515 1,884

1,641 468 2,109

1,637 477 2,114

1,640 475 2,115

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,644 1,651 1,658 473 472 471 2,118 2,122 2,129

1,664 472 2,136

1,670 474 2,144

1,676 476 2,152

1,682 479 2,160

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

613 468 1,080

609 477 1,086

609 475 1,084

607 473 1,081

605 472 1,077

603 471 1,074

602 472 1,075

602 474 1,076

603 476 1,079

604 479 1,082

604 481 1,085

795

1,014

1,021

1,026

1,033

1,040

1,046

1,052

1,057

1,062

1,067

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade Loss

05/06

Argentine Cotton Supply Su and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

481

609

646

670

(Thousand Hectares) 680 682 683

684

685

685

688

Yield

420

390

394

399

(Kilograms per Hectare) 404 408 413

418

422

427

432

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

202 79 281

237 77 314

255 90 345

267 103 370

(Thousand Metric Tons) 274 279 282 114 122 126 389 400 408

286 130 416

289 133 422

293 136 429

297 139 437

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

97 77 174

97 90 188

99 103 202

100 114 215

102 122 223

103 126 230

105 130 235

107 133 240

108 136 245

110 139 249

112 143 255

106

124

141

154

163

169

172

174

176

177

180

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Net Trade Loss

290 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Australian Cotton Supply S and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

467

485

503

Yield

1,545

1,546

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

722 412 1,134

Area Harvested

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

517

(Thousand Hectares) 530 543 555

567

578

589

600

1,553

1,560

(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,567 1,574 1,581

1,588

1,595

1,603

1,610

749 414 1,163

781 424 1,205

807 443 1,250

(Thousand Metric Tons) 831 855 877 457 472 485 1,289 1,326 1,363

900 499 1,399

922 512 1,434

944 525 1,469

966 538 1,504

43 414 457

42 424 466

44 443 486

44 457 502

45 472 517

46 485 531

47 499 545

47 512 559

48 525 573

49 538 586

49 551 600

698

719

741

770

794

817

839

861

883

905

926

-22

-22

-22

-22

-22

-22

-22

-22

-22

-22

-22

05/06

Indian Cotton Supp ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

8,350

8,835

9,117

9,295

(Thousand Hectares) 9,395 9,456 9,498

9,524

9,540

9,552

9,562

310

315

318

320

(Kilograms per Hectare) 323 325 328

330

333

336

338

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,589 1,075 3,664

2,783 989 3,772

2,895 968 3,863

2,975 989 3,964

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,031 3,075 3,114 1,013 1,032 1,047 4,044 4,107 4,161

3,147 1,060 4,207

3,177 1,071 4,248

3,207 1,081 4,288

3,236 1,090 4,327

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,925 989 3,914

3,062 968 4,030

3,132 989 4,122

3,214 1,013 4,227

3,282 1,032 4,314

3,337 1,047 4,384

3,387 1,060 4,447

3,432 1,071 4,503

3,474 1,081 4,555

3,515 1,090 4,605

3,555 1,100 4,655

-250

-258

-259

-263

-269

-277

-286

-296

-306

-317

-329

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade Loss

World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 291

Other Former Sovie et Union Cotton Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

1,009

1,005

1,002

Yield

449

413

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

453 225 678

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Area Harvested

Net Trade Loss

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

995

(Thousand Hectares) 984 973 963

953

944

935

926

413

413

(Kilograms per Hectare) 413 413 413

413

413

413

413

415 198 614

414 189 603

411 186 596

(Thousand Metric Tons) 406 402 398 184 183 182 590 585 580

394 181 575

390 181 571

386 181 567

383 181 564

199 198 397

202 189 391

206 186 391

210 184 394

214 183 397

218 182 400

222 181 403

226 181 406

230 181 411

236 181 417

243 182 425

281

222

212

202

194

185

177

168

160

150

139

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Other Latin America an Cotton Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

516

527

537

541

(Thousand Hectares) 542 542 541

539

537

535

532

Yield

433

440

440

440

(Kilograms per Hectare) 440 440 440

440

440

440

440

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

224 88 312

232 95 327

236 99 335

238 100 339

(Thousand Metric Tons) 238 238 238 102 103 103 340 341 341

237 103 341

236 103 340

235 103 338

234 103 337

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

315 95 410

321 99 420

327 100 427

333 102 435

339 103 442

344 103 447

350 103 454

357 103 460

363 103 466

369 103 472

376 103 478

-99

-93

-93

-97

-102

-107

-113

-120

-127

-134

-142

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Trade Loss

04/05

05/06

292 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other Middle Easter ern Cotton Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

551

563

570

1,000

1,013

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

551 148 699

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade Loss

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

574

(Thousand Hectares) 575 575 575

575

574

574

573

1,025

1,038

(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,051 1,064 1,078

1,091

1,105

1,118

1,132

571 168 738

585 169 753

595 172 768

(Thousand Metric Tons) 604 612 620 176 180 183 780 792 803

627 186 813

634 190 824

642 193 835

649 197 846

302 168 470

309 169 477

311 172 483

314 176 490

317 180 497

320 183 503

323 186 510

327 190 517

331 193 524

335 197 532

340 200 540

229

261

270

277

283

288

293

297

300

303

305

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

05/06

Pakistani Cotton Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

2,985

3,059

3,099

3,138

(Thousand Hectares) 3,172 3,199 3,223

3,247

3,269

3,292

3,314

605

580

584

588

(Kilograms per Hectare) 591 595 599

603

607

611

615

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,806 574 2,380

1,774 531 2,305

1,809 381 2,191

1,844 384 2,228

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,876 1,904 1,931 389 397 403 2,266 2,301 2,334

1,958 409 2,367

1,984 415 2,399

2,011 421 2,431

2,037 426 2,463

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,754 531 2,284

1,785 381 2,166

1,816 384 2,201

1,848 389 2,237

1,879 397 2,276

1,909 403 2,312

1,938 409 2,347

1,967 415 2,381

1,994 421 2,415

2,021 426 2,447

2,047 432 2,478

90

133

-16

-15

-16

-17

-19

-20

-21

-21

-20

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade Loss

World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 293

Turkish Cotton Sup pply and Utilization

Area Harvested

Yield

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

670

702

714

1,202

1,147

805 180 985

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

719

(Thousand Hectares) 723 727 731

734

738

741

744

1,153

1,159

(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,164 1,170 1,176

1,182

1,188

1,194

1,200

806 150 956

823 146 969

833 148 981

(Thousand Metric Tons) 842 851 859 149 150 151 991 1,001 1,011

868 152 1,020

876 153 1,030

884 154 1,039

893 156 1,048

1,197 150 1,347

1,207 146 1,353

1,224 148 1,372

1,241 149 1,390

1,259 150 1,409

1,277 151 1,429

1,296 152 1,449

1,316 153 1,469

1,336 154 1,490

1,356 156 1,512

1,377 157 1,534

-362

-397

-402

-409

-417

-427

-438

-449

-461

-473

-486

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

05/06

Uzbekistani Cotton Supply and Utilization

Area Harvested

Yield

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

1,415

1,410

1,421

1,427

(Thousand Hectares) 1,430 1,430 1,428

1,425

1,421

1,418

1,414

662

662

662

662

(Kilograms per Hectare) 662 662 662

662

662

662

662

937 182 1,119

934 140 1,074

941 140 1,081

945 140 1,085

(Thousand Metric Tons) 947 947 945 140 140 140 1,087 1,087 1,085

943 140 1,083

941 140 1,081

938 140 1,078

936 140 1,076

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

196 140 336

783

738

745

749

751

751

749

747

745

743

740

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

294 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Brazilian Cotton Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

892

1,004

1,152

1,275

(Thousand Hectares) 1,363 1,427 1,474

1,510

1,539

1,561

1,586

Yield

905

680

687

694

(Kilograms per Hectare) 702 709 716

724

732

739

747

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

807 340 1,147

683 345 1,027

791 344 1,135

886 378 1,264

(Thousand Metric Tons) 956 1,012 1,056 424 464 497 1,380 1,476 1,553

1,094 523 1,616

1,126 542 1,668

1,154 557 1,712

1,185 569 1,754

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

945 345 1,289

955 344 1,298

977 378 1,356

1,001 424 1,425

1,025 464 1,489

1,054 497 1,551

1,083 523 1,606

1,112 542 1,654

1,142 557 1,699

1,170 569 1,739

1,201 579 1,781

-142

-271

-220

-162

-109

-76

-53

-38

-31

-28

-27

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 5 5 5 5 5 5

5 5

5 5

5 5

5 5

Net Trade Loss

05/06

Canadian Cotton Su upply and Utilization

Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

5 5

5 5

5 5

5 5

75 5 80

76 5 81

77 5 82

78 5 83

79 5 84

79 5 84

80 5 85

80 5 85

81 5 86

82 5 87

82 5 87

75

76

77

78

79

79

80

80

81

82

82

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 295

Chinese Cotton Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Area Harvested

4,120

4,101

4,151

4,189

(Thousand Hectares) 4,229 4,267 4,300

4,332

4,364

4,395

4,426

Yield

1,031

1,038

1,045

1,052

(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,059 1,066 1,073

1,080

1,087

1,094

1,101

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4,248 3,277 7,525

4,257 2,612 6,868

4,338 2,258 6,596

4,407 1,908 6,315

(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,479 4,548 4,614 1,678 1,574 1,563 6,157 6,123 6,178

4,679 1,606 6,285

4,743 1,691 6,435

4,808 1,800 6,608

4,873 1,938 6,811

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4,981 2,612 7,593

5,033 2,258 7,291

5,082 1,908 6,989

5,132 1,678 6,810

5,173 1,574 6,747

5,216 1,563 6,780

5,270 1,606 6,876

5,312 1,691 7,003

5,360 1,800 7,160

5,391 1,938 7,329

5,418 2,101 7,519

-68

-423

-393

-495

-590

-657

-698

-718

-725

-721

-707

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Trade Loss

05/06

Eastern European Cotton C Supply and Utilization

Area Harvested

Yield

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

17

17

18

18

(Thousand Hectares) 18 18 18

18

18

18

18

410

410

410

410

(Kilograms per Hectare) 410 410 410

410

410

410

410

7 73 79

7 67 75

7 64 71

7 62 69

(Thousand Metric Tons) 7 7 7 62 62 62 69 69 70

8 63 71

8 64 72

8 65 73

8 67 74

207 67 275

208 64 272

207 62 269

206 62 268

207 62 268

207 62 270

208 63 271

211 64 275

214 65 279

219 67 286

227 68 295

-196

-199

-199

-200

-201

-202

-203

-206

-209

-214

-222

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

296 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

European Union Co otton Supply and Utilization

Area Harvested

Yield

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

485

527

552

1,055

1,060

512 309 821

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

569

(Thousand Hectares) 580 588 594

598

602

606

609

1,065

1,069

(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,074 1,079 1,084

1,089

1,094

1,099

1,103

558 317 875

588 317 905

608 317 925

(Thousand Metric Tons) 623 634 643 317 317 317 940 951 960

651 317 968

659 317 975

665 317 982

672 317 989

1,065 317 1,382

1,073 317 1,390

1,073 317 1,389

1,075 317 1,392

1,074 317 1,391

1,073 317 1,390

1,073 317 1,390

1,074 317 1,391

1,074 317 1,391

1,073 317 1,390

1,072 317 1,389

-576

-530

-500

-482

-466

-454

-445

-438

-430

-423

-415

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

15

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 66 66 66 66 66 66

66 66

66 66

66 66

66 66

Japanese Cotton Su upply and Utilization

Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

66 66

66 66

66 66

66 66

245 66 310

251 66 316

260 66 326

261 66 326

257 66 322

252 66 318

248 66 314

244 66 310

241 66 306

238 66 303

235 66 300

-245

-251

-260

-261

-257

-252

-248

-244

-241

-238

-235

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 297

Mexican Cotton Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

74

117

144

1,059

951

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

78 93 172

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Area Harvested

Yield

Net Trade Loss

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

154

(Thousand Hectares) 159 162 163

164

163

163

162

955

959

(Kilograms per Hectare) 963 967 971

975

979

983

987

112 102 213

137 99 236

147 103 251

(Thousand Metric Tons) 153 156 158 106 109 111 259 265 270

160 113 273

160 115 275

160 117 277

160 119 278

496 102 598

512 99 611

549 103 652

565 106 671

578 109 687

587 111 698

594 113 707

602 115 717

610 117 727

619 119 738

627 121 747

-432

-403

-421

-426

-433

-438

-443

-450

-458

-466

-474

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Other Asian Cotton n Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Area Harvested

409

421

419

420

(Thousand Hectares) 417 416 414

415

415

415

413

Yield

239

240

240

241

(Kilograms per Hectare) 241 242 243

243

244

244

245

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

98 243 341

101 256 357

101 251 351

101 250 351

(Thousand Metric Tons) 101 101 101 250 250 251 351 351 351

101 251 352

101 252 353

101 252 354

101 253 354

1,286 256 1,542

1,290 251 1,541

1,303 250 1,553

1,319 250 1,569

1,335 250 1,585

1,354 251 1,604

1,374 251 1,625

1,397 252 1,648

1,421 252 1,673

1,446 253 1,699

1,474 253 1,727

-1,223

-1,205

-1,223

-1,239

-1,256

-1,274

-1,295

-1,317

-1,341

-1,367

-1,394

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

21

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

298 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other Western Euro opean Cotton Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

0 15 15

0 14 14

0 14 14

0 14 14

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

36 14 50

36 14 50

36 14 50

36 14 50

36 14 50

36 14 50

-35

-36

-36

-36

-36

0

0

0

0

Net Trade Loss

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 14 14 14 14 14 14

0 14 14

0 14 14

0 14 14

0 14 14

36 14 50

36 14 50

36 14 50

36 14 50

36 14 50

-36

-36

-36

-36

-36

-36

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 48 48 48 48 48 48

0 48 48

0 48 48

0 48 48

0 48 48

Russian Cotton Sup pply and Utilization

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0 37 37

0 48 48

0 48 48

0 48 48

342 48 390

343 48 391

346 48 395

355 48 403

360 48 408

364 48 412

366 48 414

367 48 415

366 48 415

365 48 413

363 48 411

-353

-343

-346

-355

-360

-364

-366

-367

-366

-365

-363

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 299

South Korean Cotto on Supply and Utilization

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

0 93 94

0 86 86

0 86 86

0 86 86

(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 86 86 86 86 86 86

0 86 86

0 86 86

0 86 86

0 86 86

304 86 390

305 86 391

301 86 387

299 86 385

298 86 384

298 86 384

297 86 383

297 86 383

297 86 383

296 86 382

295 86 381

-296

-304

-300

-299

-298

-297

-297

-297

-296

-296

-295

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 47 47 47 47 47 47

0 47 47

0 47 47

0 47 47

0 47 47

Taiwanese Cotton Supply S and Utilization

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0 75 75

0 47 47

0 47 47

0 47 47

243 47 290

266 47 314

265 47 312

263 47 310

262 47 309

262 47 309

261 47 309

261 47 308

261 47 308

260 47 308

260 47 307

-215

-266

-265

-263

-262

-262

-261

-261

-261

-260

-260

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

WORLD SUGAR

302 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Sugar An 8 percent decline in world sugar production in 2000/01 stimulates a 28 percent increase in the raw sugar price for 2000/01 compared to 1999/00. Sugar prices rise another 32 percent over the baseline, ending at 10.7¢/lb. After declining slightly in 2000/01, world sugar beet and sugarcane area increases throughout the projection period, as producers respond to higher prices. Sugar production increases from 126 mmt in 2000/01 to 150 mmt in 2010/11, an increase of 19 percent. After declining sharply in 2000/01, sugar trade increases more than 7 mmt by the end of the baseline. Brazilian sugarcane area increases steadily throughout the baseline in response to rising sugar prices. Low land prices and competitive production costs enable Brazil to maintain its position as the world’s largest supplier. Brazilian sugar exports approach 8 mmt by the end of the period. More sugarcane is diverted into alcohol production, especially during the short term as oil prices rise. Per capita sugar consumption continues to grow as consumers continue to favor more basic foodstuffs. Over the long term, the industrial use of sugar, which depends on income growth, is projected to strengthen as the Brazilian economy recovers from the recent crisis. Australian sugarcane area continues to grow over the baseline, though at a slower rate than that of the previous decade. Investment in infrastructure in the industry slows because world prices remain below levels that historically have elicited expansion. Adverse weather conditions have greatly reduced Australian sugar production in two of the last three years. As weather returns to more average conditions, production increases through area expansion and yield growth. Extensive marketing efforts by the Australian sugar industry have helped slow the per capita decline in consumption. However, per capita sugar consumption continues to decline, enabling Australian exports, destined primarily for Asian markets, to expand 1.4 mmt during the decade. Almost ideal weather conditions are helping Thailand’s sugar industry recover from difficulties suffered the last few years, which reduced exports. Industry recovery has been aided by government intervention to solve liquidity problems within the industry. Thai production increases by 0.8 mmt and raw sugar exports increase by 0.4 mmt. Slow growth in consumption and increased competition from high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in the soft drink and food industries result in a buildup of Thai ending stocks. Cuban sugarcane area in 2000/01 is expected to be the lowest in more than 20 years. Credit availability continues to be a problem in the sugar sector and is responsible for the substantial declines in yields. The Cuban government is hoping to stimulate investment through privatization; however, sugar prices as low as 10¢/lb are not enough to induce expansion. Over the baseline, moderate yield growth enables Cuban sugar exports to increase by more than 0.6 mmt. Mexico’s sugar production increases 1.2 mmt over the next decade in response to the sequential reduction in U.S. sugar TRQs under NAFTA, which allows Mexico increased access to the U.S. market. Sugar production in the FSU increases 0.4 mmt over the baseline but remains 55 to 65 percent below the level prior to the breakup. A continued decline in the cultural importance of sugar reduces the demand for imports; as a result, imports fall from 6.0 to 5.2 mmt.

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 303

Sugar Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Brazil Columbia Cuba European Union India Mexico Pakistan South Africa Thailand Total Net Exports

Net Importers Algeria Canada China Eastern Europe Egypt Former Soviet Union Indonesia Iran Japan Malaysia Morocco Peru Philippines South Korea Turkey United States Venezuela Rest of World Total Net Imports

Sugar Prices FOB Caribbean Price New York Spot

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

139 3,346 6,200 941 3,500 3,328 500 540 -700 1,395 3,800

117 4,054 6,912 946 3,272 3,803 732 756 -717 1,494 3,838

122 4,180 7,163 946 3,335 3,743 585 830 -709 1,466 3,917

122 4,279 7,358 947 3,395 3,693 504 841 -689 1,469 3,970

(Thousand Metric Tons) 121 120 115 4,362 4,435 4,504 7,515 7,597 7,647 948 955 965 3,456 3,523 3,596 3,744 3,849 3,984 458 437 434 839 837 832 -659 -627 -595 1,483 1,506 1,531 4,015 4,057 4,096

106 4,568 7,713 975 3,670 4,135 412 923 -569 1,553 4,128

99 4,631 7,721 982 3,751 4,294 404 1,010 -545 1,581 4,162

91 4,692 7,780 990 3,836 4,456 404 1,107 -529 1,608 4,193

84 4,752 7,810 999 3,926 4,619 415 1,212 -518 1,638 4,225

22,989

25,206

25,579

25,890

26,283

26,688

27,110

27,615

28,090

28,628

29,162

890 1,154 728 1,188 710 5,894 1,600 1,300 1,590 1,110 465 255 158 1,170 -400 1,460 15 4,382

968 1,150 1,342 1,325 725 6,061 1,970 1,376 1,583 1,142 523 246 249 1,234 82 1,549 126 4,236

968 1,153 1,207 1,363 741 6,003 2,194 1,448 1,571 1,169 549 241 254 1,272 135 1,709 134 4,147

970 1,161 1,083 1,361 764 5,938 2,342 1,513 1,565 1,199 570 242 261 1,315 166 1,820 136 4,165

973 1,172 1,031 1,344 786 5,894 2,451 1,577 1,558 1,231 588 247 267 1,363 189 1,928 134 4,228

980 1,184 1,080 1,320 807 5,795 2,539 1,639 1,550 1,262 603 255 266 1,408 207 2,047 130 4,297

990 1,197 1,186 1,297 827 5,672 2,590 1,701 1,544 1,295 617 266 263 1,453 222 2,176 126 4,369

1,001 1,215 1,278 1,284 855 5,604 2,635 1,767 1,540 1,331 630 280 262 1,503 240 2,266 122 4,481

1,012 1,233 1,434 1,272 880 5,495 2,649 1,833 1,536 1,367 641 297 260 1,549 257 2,354 117 4,584

1,023 1,256 1,614 1,267 908 5,401 2,684 1,902 1,535 1,405 653 316 258 1,597 276 2,451 112 4,650

1,035 1,279 1,841 1,266 933 5,273 2,742 1,972 1,534 1,412 663 336 256 1,642 294 2,555 107 4,702

22,989

25,206

25,579

25,890

26,283

26,688

27,110

27,615

28,090

28,628

29,162

177 407

185 406

193 401

199 396

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 204 211 219 392 388 383

221 379

226 375

229 371

235 368

304 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Sugar Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent

Dollars per Metric Ton 350

35 30

300

25

250

20

200

15

150

10

100

5

50

0

0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Stock-to-Use Ratio

FOB Caribbean Price

World Sugar Beet and Sugarcane Area Harvested Million Hectares 30

25

20

15

10

5

0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99

2000/01

Sugar Beet

2002/03

Sugarcane

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 305

Major Sugar Exporters Million Metric Tons 30

25

20

15

10

5

0 1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

1998/99 Australia

2000/01 Brazil

2002/03

Cuba

EU

2004/05

2006/07

2008/09

2010/11

Thailand

Major Sugar Net Importers Million Metric Tons 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2

1990/91

1992/93

1994/95

1996/97

South Korea

1998/99

Japan

2000/01

Indonesia

2002/03

2004/05

Former Soviet Union

2006/07

United States

2008/09

2010/11

306 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Sugar Supply y and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

6.38

6.46

6.47

6.48

(Million Hectares) 6.49 6.49 6.50

6.52

6.53

6.55

6.56

38.04

37.84

38.11

38.35

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 38.60 38.86 39.11

39.34

39.59

39.83

40.08

243

244

247

249

(Million Metric Tons) 250 252 254

257

259

261

263

Sugarcane Area Harvested

19.17

19.20

19.33

19.48

(Million Hectares) 19.61 19.72 19.83

19.97

20.09

20.21

20.32

Yield

63.20

65.45

66.27

66.90

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 67.48 68.03 68.57

69.11

69.62

70.12

70.61

Production

1,211

1,257

1,281

1,303

(Million Metric Tons) 1,323 1,341 1,360

1,380

1,399

1,417

1,435

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

126.22 38.05 164.27

129.95 34.44 164.39

132.67 32.61 165.27

135.00 31.66 166.67

137.21 31.16 168.37

139.35 30.85 170.19

141.51 30.64 172.14

143.81 30.49 174.30

146.00 30.40 176.41

148.32 30.30 178.62

150.59 30.19 180.78

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

129.83 34.44 164.27

131.79 32.61 164.39

133.61 31.66 165.27

135.51 31.16 166.67

137.52 30.85 168.37

139.56 30.64 170.19

141.65 30.49 172.14

143.89 30.40 174.30

146.11 30.30 176.41

148.42 30.19 178.62

150.73 30.05 180.78

22.99

25.21

25.58

25.89

26.28

26.69

27.11

27.61

28.09

28.63

29.16

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 307

U.S. Sugar Supply and a Utilization Sugar Beet Area Harvested

Yield

Production Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

558

598

604

52.90

47.80

29,503

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

604

(Thousand Hectares) 601 600 599

599

598

598

598

48.14

48.48

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 48.83 49.17 49.51

49.86

50.20

50.54

50.88

28,565

29,081

29,281

(Thousand Metric Tons) 29,335 29,483 29,667

29,844

30,014

30,215

30,406

403

412

416

416

(Thousand Hectares) 415 414 413

412

410

409

407

77.56

78.52

78.70

78.89

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 79.08 79.26 79.45

79.63

79.82

80.00

80.19

31,293

32,334

32,705

32,832

(Thousand Metric Tons) 32,834 32,823 32,803

32,776

32,745

32,709

32,667

7,746 2,013 9,759

7,968 1,816 9,785

8,086 1,814 9,900

8,129 1,966 10,094

8,135 2,136 10,271

8,154 2,287 10,441

8,177 2,445 10,622

8,198 2,623 10,821

8,217 2,786 11,003

8,240 2,929 11,169

8,262 3,062 11,324

9,402 1,816 11,218

9,520 1,814 11,334

9,644 1,966 11,609

9,779 2,136 11,914

9,912 2,287 12,199

10,043 2,445 12,488

10,174 2,623 12,798

10,301 2,786 13,087

10,428 2,929 13,357

10,557 3,062 13,620

10,690 3,189 13,879

-1,460

-1,549

-1,709

-1,820

-1,928

-2,047

-2,176

-2,266

-2,354

-2,451

-2,555

308 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Algerian Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

7

7

7

7

19.14

19.25

19.34

Production

134

135

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

10 157 167

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

Yield

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

7

7

7

7

7

19.43

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 19.52 19.61 19.70

19.78

19.87

19.96

20.04

135

136

(Thousand Metric Tons) 137 137 138

139

139

140

140

10 107 117

10 119 130

10 126 136

10 130 140

11 132 142

11 133 143

11 133 144

11 133 144

11 133 144

11 133 144

950 107 1,057

966 119 1,085

971 126 1,097

977 130 1,106

982 132 1,113

990 133 1,123

1,000 133 1,133

1,011 133 1,144

1,023 133 1,156

1,034 133 1,167

1,046 133 1,179

-890

-968

-968

-970

-973

-980

-990

-1,001

-1,012

-1,023

-1,035

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Hectares) 7 7

Argentine Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

265

271

269

268

(Thousand Hectares) 267 266 265

264

263

262

262

60.38

61.68

62.65

63.45

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 64.17 64.85 65.51

66.16

66.80

67.44

68.08

16,000

16,733

16,872

17,005

(Thousand Metric Tons) 17,130 17,249 17,368

17,487

17,595

17,703

17,806

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,530 263 1,793

1,673 124 1,797

1,696 128 1,824

1,717 127 1,845

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,739 1,759 1,775 125 123 120 1,864 1,882 1,895

1,791 117 1,908

1,805 115 1,920

1,820 113 1,933

1,834 110 1,944

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,530 124 1,654

1,553 128 1,681

1,575 127 1,702

1,597 125 1,722

1,620 123 1,743

1,642 120 1,762

1,663 117 1,780

1,687 115 1,802

1,709 113 1,821

1,731 110 1,842

1,753 108 1,861

139

117

122

122

121

120

115

106

99

91

84

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 309

Australian Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

411

418

422

90.26

92.20

37,097

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

424

(Thousand Hectares) 426 426 427

427

427

427

427

93.74

95.06

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 96.25 97.37 98.45

99.51

100.55

101.59

102.63

38,556

39,575

40,343

(Thousand Metric Tons) 40,967 41,511 42,010

42,482

42,940

43,390

43,835

4,600 531 5,131

5,012 790 5,802

5,153 754 5,907

5,261 731 5,992

5,350 716 6,066

5,430 706 6,135

5,503 699 6,202

5,574 694 6,268

5,642 691 6,334

5,710 689 6,399

5,777 688 6,465

995 790 1,785

994 754 1,749

996 731 1,727

997 716 1,713

999 706 1,704

1,001 699 1,700

1,004 694 1,698

1,009 691 1,700

1,014 689 1,703

1,020 688 1,708

1,027 687 1,713

3,346

4,054

4,180

4,279

4,362

4,435

4,504

4,568

4,631

4,692

4,752

05/06

Brazilian Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Sugarcane Area Harvested

4,650

4,654

4,701

4,760

(Thousand Hectares) 4,803 4,826 4,848

4,873

4,882

4,893

4,899

Yield

62.37

65.77

66.75

67.30

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 67.78 68.24 68.70

69.16

69.62

70.09

70.55

Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

(Thousand Metric Tons) 290,000 306,106 313,799 320,322 325,561 329,322 333,041 337,008 339,896 342,927 345,609

15,400 710 16,110

16,314 660 16,974

16,785 627 17,412

17,196 601 17,797

17,540 587 18,127

17,806 578 18,384

18,033 571 18,604

18,274 565 18,838

18,457 559 19,015

18,648 553 19,201

18,820 528 19,348

9,250 660 9,910

9,435 627 10,062

9,649 601 10,249

9,851 587 10,438

10,034 578 10,612

10,216 571 10,787

10,392 565 10,957

10,567 559 11,125

10,742 553 11,295

10,893 528 11,421

11,042 496 11,538

6,200

6,912

7,163

7,358

7,515

7,597

7,647

7,713

7,721

7,780

7,810

310 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Canadian Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

17

17

17

57.35

57.57

Production

975

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

Yield

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

17

(Thousand Hectares) 16 16 16

16

16

15

15

57.98

58.47

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 59.00 59.54 60.09

60.65

61.21

61.77

62.33

978

975

972

(Thousand Metric Tons) 968 964 960

956

951

946

940

110 39 149

110 63 173

110 76 186

110 85 194

109 92 201

109 98 207

108 104 213

108 110 218

107 116 223

107 122 229

106 128 234

1,240 63 1,303

1,247 76 1,323

1,254 85 1,339

1,263 92 1,355

1,275 98 1,373

1,287 104 1,391

1,300 110 1,410

1,317 116 1,433

1,335 122 1,457

1,357 128 1,484

1,379 133 1,513

-1,154

-1,150

-1,153

-1,161

-1,172

-1,184

-1,197

-1,215

-1,233

-1,256

-1,279

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Chinese Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

317

377

403

415

(Thousand Hectares) 421 424 426

428

430

432

433

36.18

33.65

33.80

33.95

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 34.10 34.25 34.40

34.55

34.70

34.85

35.00

11,470

12,674

13,616

14,105

(Thousand Metric Tons) 14,366 14,531 14,668

14,802

14,918

15,039

15,155

Sugarcane Area Harvested

1,152

1,151

1,170

1,195

(Thousand Hectares) 1,217 1,236 1,257

1,278

1,298

1,319

1,338

Yield

54.89

57.60

59.31

60.46

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 61.30 61.97 62.54

63.06

63.25

63.36

63.42

63,231

66,303

69,396

72,268

(Thousand Metric Tons) 74,594 76,623 78,601

80,619

82,099

83,539

84,856

6,966 2,339 9,305

7,365 1,383 8,748

7,749 1,090 8,840

8,072 965 9,037

8,322 914 9,236

8,537 891 9,428

8,744 875 9,620

8,955 859 9,815

9,115 847 9,962

9,291 833 10,124

9,456 820 10,276

8,650 1,383 10,033

8,999 1,090 10,090

9,081 965 10,047

9,206 914 10,120

9,376 891 10,267

9,632 875 10,508

9,946 859 10,806

10,246 847 11,093

10,563 833 11,396

10,919 820 11,738

11,313 803 12,116

-728

-1,342

-1,207

-1,083

-1,031

-1,080

-1,186

-1,278

-1,434

-1,614

-1,841

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 311

Colombian Sugar S Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

390

391

393

82.82

82.87

32,300

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

395

(Thousand Hectares) 397 398 400

402

402

403

403

83.04

83.27

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 83.52 83.78 84.05

84.32

84.60

84.87

85.14

32,443

32,664

32,911

(Thousand Metric Tons) 33,157 33,383 33,625

33,879

34,045

34,207

34,326

2,280 88 2,368

2,303 109 2,412

2,332 117 2,449

2,363 120 2,482

2,394 120 2,513

2,423 119 2,542

2,454 117 2,571

2,486 116 2,602

2,512 115 2,627

2,538 114 2,651

2,560 113 2,674

1,318 109 1,427

1,349 117 1,466

1,383 120 1,503

1,416 120 1,536

1,446 119 1,565

1,470 117 1,587

1,491 116 1,606

1,513 115 1,627

1,531 114 1,645

1,548 113 1,661

1,562 113 1,674

941

946

946

947

948

955

965

975

982

990

999

05/06

Cuban Sugar Supplly and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Sugarcane Area Harvested

1,175

1,168

1,164

1,163

(Thousand Hectares) 1,163 1,165 1,169

1,175

1,181

1,188

1,196

Yield

31.49

31.85

32.18

32.49

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 32.79 33.09 33.39

33.69

33.98

34.28

34.57

37,000

37,204

37,459

37,775

(Thousand Metric Tons) 38,145 38,564 39,040

39,572

40,127

40,722

41,341

4,000 420 4,420

4,048 180 4,228

4,102 204 4,306

4,163 210 4,373

4,231 207 4,438

4,304 200 4,504

4,384 190 4,575

4,472 179 4,651

4,563 168 4,731

4,659 157 4,816

4,759 146 4,905

740 180 920

752 204 956

761 210 971

771 207 979

782 200 982

791 190 982

800 179 979

812 168 981

823 157 980

834 146 980

845 135 979

3,500

3,272

3,335

3,395

3,456

3,523

3,596

3,670

3,751

3,836

3,926

Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

312 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Eastern European Sugar S Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

600

580

570

41.67

41.82

25,000

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

562

(Thousand Hectares) 557 551 546

541

536

531

526

41.93

42.04

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 42.16 42.27 42.39

42.50

42.61

42.73

42.84

24,268

23,885

23,646

(Thousand Metric Tons) 23,464 23,303 23,150

23,000

22,850

22,699

22,547

3,525 864 4,389

3,422 666 4,088

3,368 578 3,946

3,334 544 3,878

3,308 537 3,845

3,286 543 3,828

3,264 553 3,817

3,243 565 3,808

3,222 579 3,801

3,201 591 3,792

3,179 604 3,783

4,911 666 5,577

4,835 578 5,413

4,765 544 5,309

4,702 537 5,239

4,646 543 5,189

4,595 553 5,148

4,550 565 5,114

4,513 579 5,092

4,481 591 5,072

4,455 604 5,059

4,434 614 5,049

-1,188

-1,325

-1,363

-1,361

-1,344

-1,320

-1,297

-1,284

-1,272

-1,267

-1,266

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Egyptian Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

65

66

68

69

(Thousand Hectares) 70 72 73

74

76

77

79

Yield

45.23

45.38

45.93

46.58

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 47.27 47.97 48.68

49.38

50.09

50.79

51.49

Production

2,940

3,011

3,109

3,217

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,329 3,443 3,559

3,678

3,798

3,920

4,044

115

115

115

115

(Thousand Hectares) 116 116 116

117

117

117

118

95.93

96.66

97.38

98.08

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 98.76 99.43 100.09

100.74

101.39

102.03

102.66

11,032

11,122

11,216

11,314

(Thousand Metric Tons) 11,415 11,519 11,627

11,738

11,852

11,970

12,090

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,280 231 1,511

1,295 251 1,546

1,314 261 1,575

1,334 265 1,599

1,355 264 1,620

1,377 262 1,639

1,399 258 1,656

1,422 252 1,673

1,445 246 1,691

1,468 240 1,708

1,493 233 1,726

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,970 251 2,221

2,010 261 2,271

2,052 265 2,316

2,098 264 2,362

2,144 262 2,406

2,188 258 2,445

2,231 252 2,483

2,283 246 2,529

2,331 240 2,571

2,383 233 2,616

2,433 226 2,658

-710

-725

-741

-764

-786

-807

-827

-855

-880

-908

-933

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 313

European Union Su ugar Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

1,820

1,830

1,829

1,828

(Thousand Hectares) 1,832 1,839 1,847

1,855

1,864

1,872

1,881

Yield

57.69

58.10

58.42

58.73

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 59.03 59.34 59.64

59.95

60.25

60.56

60.86

Production Sugarcane Area Harvested

(Thousand Metric Tons) 105,000 106,294 106,824 107,346 108,149 109,104 110,137 111,198 112,287 113,390 114,506

2

2

2

2

72.20

72.44

72.98

148

150

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

18,762 3,752 22,514

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Yield

Production

Net Trade

05/06

(Thousand Hectares) 2 2

2

2

2

2

2

73.61

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 74.28 74.96 75.64

76.33

77.02

77.70

78.39

151

153

(Thousand Metric Tons) 155 157 159

161

162

164

166

18,993 3,630 22,623

19,195 3,235 22,430

19,289 3,056 22,345

19,433 2,987 22,420

19,605 2,972 22,578

19,791 2,985 22,776

19,981 3,012 22,993

20,177 3,046 23,223

20,376 3,084 23,460

20,576 3,124 23,700

15,556 3,630 19,186

15,585 3,235 18,820

15,631 3,056 18,687

15,665 2,987 18,652

15,704 2,972 18,676

15,744 2,985 18,729

15,780 3,012 18,792

15,812 3,046 18,858

15,845 3,084 18,929

15,880 3,124 19,004

15,917 3,164 19,081

3,328

3,803

3,743

3,693

3,744

3,849

3,984

4,135

4,294

4,456

4,619

Former Soviet Unio on Sugar Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

2,150

2,154

2,156

2,160

(Thousand Hectares) 2,161 2,162 2,165

2,174

2,177

2,184

2,190

Yield

15.63

16.04

16.29

16.46

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 16.58 16.68 16.78

16.86

16.95

17.03

17.11

33,600

34,553

35,137

35,547

(Thousand Metric Tons) 35,843 36,068 36,325

36,653

36,892

37,184

37,470

3,777 3,920 7,697

3,884 3,294 7,178

3,950 3,067 7,017

3,996 2,931 6,927

4,029 2,846 6,875

4,054 2,785 6,839

4,083 2,734 6,818

4,120 2,686 6,806

4,147 2,650 6,797

4,180 2,610 6,790

4,212 2,573 6,785

10,297 3,294 13,591

10,172 3,067 13,239

10,089 2,931 13,020

10,019 2,846 12,865

9,984 2,785 12,769

9,900 2,734 12,634

9,804 2,686 12,490

9,761 2,650 12,411

9,681 2,610 12,291

9,619 2,573 12,192

9,528 2,529 12,058

-5,894

-6,061

-6,003

-5,938

-5,894

-5,795

-5,672

-5,604

-5,495

-5,401

-5,273

Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

05/06

314 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Indian Sugar Supply ly and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Sugarcane Area Harvested

3,950

3,968

3,990

4,015

(Thousand Hectares) 4,040 4,065 4,091

4,116

4,141

4,166

4,191

Yield

72.41

73.42

74.08

74.77

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 75.46 76.15 76.84

77.52

78.21

78.85

79.49

Production

05/06

(Thousand Metric Tons) 286,000 291,302 295,594 300,194 304,858 309,567 314,318 319,108 323,889 328,503 333,154

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

17,803 10,676 28,479

18,404 10,109 28,513

18,785 9,541 28,326

19,188 9,123 28,311

19,599 8,807 28,406

20,016 8,560 28,576

20,440 8,361 28,801

20,850 8,194 29,043

21,262 8,049 29,311

21,686 7,918 29,604

22,117 7,797 29,914

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

17,870 10,109 27,979

18,239 9,541 27,781

18,618 9,123 27,741

19,001 8,807 27,807

19,387 8,560 27,947

19,778 8,361 28,139

20,172 8,194 28,366

20,582 8,049 28,631

20,989 7,918 28,907

21,403 7,797 29,200

21,816 7,683 29,499

500

732

585

504

458

437

434

412

404

404

415

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Trade

Indonesian Sugar Supply S and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

340

311

299

292

(Thousand Hectares) 290 291 298

309

325

339

349

63.53

65.94

66.81

67.45

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 68.04 68.63 69.22

69.82

70.41

71.00

71.59

21,600

20,479

19,977

19,673

(Thousand Metric Tons) 19,706 19,942 20,661

21,553

22,890

24,047

24,995

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,500 1,240 2,740

1,427 840 2,267

1,397 667 2,064

1,381 594 1,975

1,388 561 1,950

1,410 543 1,953

1,466 531 1,997

1,534 522 2,056

1,635 512 2,147

1,724 502 2,226

1,798 491 2,289

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,500 840 4,340

3,571 667 4,237

3,664 594 4,258

3,756 561 4,317

3,857 543 4,401

3,961 531 4,492

4,066 522 4,588

4,179 512 4,691

4,295 502 4,797

4,419 491 4,911

4,553 479 5,032

-1,600

-1,970

-2,194

-2,342

-2,451

-2,539

-2,590

-2,635

-2,649

-2,684

-2,742

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 315

Iranian Sugar Supp ply and Utilization Sugar Beet Area Harvested Yield Production Sugarcane Area Harvested

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

175

170

167

27.14

27.48

27.84

4,750 29

4,671 30

4,644

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

165

(Thousand Hectares) 164 163 163

162

162

162

162

28.20

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 28.57 28.93 29.30

29.67

30.03

30.40

30.77

4,649

(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,674 4,712 4,763

4,821

4,874

4,929

4,981

30

(Thousand Hectares) 31 31 31

32

32

32

32

76.74

77.55

78.35

79.16

30

04/05

05/06

Yield

70.69

71.75

72.65

73.50

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 74.32 75.13 75.93

Production

2,050

2,118

2,177

2,231

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,282 2,331 2,378

2,425

2,472

2,519

2,567

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

835 640 1,475

834 575 1,409

838 529 1,367

846 493 1,339

856 463 1,319

868 435 1,303

880 409 1,289

894 383 1,277

907 358 1,266

921 334 1,254

934 310 1,243

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,200 575 2,775

2,256 529 2,784

2,322 493 2,815

2,389 463 2,851

2,461 435 2,896

2,533 409 2,942

2,607 383 2,990

2,685 358 3,044

2,765 334 3,099

2,847 310 3,156

2,930 285 3,215

-1,300

-1,376

-1,448

-1,513

-1,577

-1,639

-1,701

-1,767

-1,833

-1,902

-1,972

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Net Trade

Japanese Sugar Su upply and Utilization Sugar Beet Area Harvested Yield

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

70

71

71

71

(Thousand Hectares) 70 70 70

70

70

69

69

55.68

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 56.22 56.78 57.33

57.89

58.46

59.02

59.58

4,042

4,070

4,093

4,108

54.29

54.67

55.15

3,800

3,871

3,911

3,932

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,955 3,980 4,010

23

24

24

25

(Thousand Hectares) 25 25 25

25

24

24

24

Yield

61.74

62.35

62.80

63.26

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 63.73 64.19 64.65

65.11

65.58

66.04

66.50

Production

1,420

1,484

1,525

1,554

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,573 1,586 1,594

1,598

1,599

1,596

1,590

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

780 225 1,005

800 245 1,045

818 253 1,071

831 257 1,088

843 259 1,101

854 260 1,114

865 261 1,126

877 262 1,139

887 263 1,150

896 264 1,160

903 265 1,168

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,350 245 2,595

2,375 253 2,628

2,385 257 2,642

2,394 259 2,652

2,400 260 2,660

2,403 261 2,664

2,409 262 2,671

2,415 263 2,678

2,422 264 2,686

2,430 265 2,695

2,436 266 2,702

-1,590

-1,583

-1,571

-1,565

-1,558

-1,550

-1,544

-1,540

-1,536

-1,535

-1,534

Production Sugarcane Area Harvested

Net Trade

316 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Malaysian Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

18

18

19

Yield

62.78

63.47

Production

1,130

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

19

(Thousand Hectares) 19 20 20

20

20

21

21

64.10

64.80

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 65.54 66.29 67.05

67.81

68.56

69.32

70.08

1,166

1,199

1,231

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,262 1,294 1,326

1,358

1,390

1,423

1,455

113 165 278

117 188 305

121 210 331

125 225 350

129 235 363

133 241 374

137 245 381

141 246 387

145 247 391

149 246 394

153 244 397

1,200 188 1,388

1,237 210 1,447

1,275 225 1,499

1,314 235 1,548

1,353 241 1,594

1,391 245 1,636

1,430 246 1,676

1,471 247 1,718

1,512 246 1,758

1,555 244 1,800

1,567 242 1,809

-1,110

-1,142

-1,169

-1,199

-1,231

-1,262

-1,295

-1,331

-1,367

-1,405

-1,412

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Mexican Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

630

658

668

672

(Thousand Hectares) 673 675 676

688

699

710

722

69.84

70.79

71.28

71.64

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 71.97 72.30 72.62

72.94

73.26

73.59

73.91

44,000

46,609

47,644

48,127

(Thousand Metric Tons) 48,471 48,784 49,057

50,155

51,186

52,281

53,390

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

4,987 585 5,572

5,293 550 5,843

5,421 549 5,970

5,487 544 6,030

5,536 537 6,073

5,583 529 6,112

5,625 521 6,146

5,762 513 6,275

5,892 506 6,398

6,029 500 6,529

6,169 494 6,663

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

4,482 550 5,032

4,538 549 5,087

4,597 544 5,140

4,652 537 5,189

4,705 529 5,234

4,754 521 5,275

4,800 513 5,313

4,846 506 5,353

4,888 500 5,388

4,928 494 5,422

4,962 489 5,451

540

756

830

841

839

837

832

923

1,010

1,107

1,212

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 317

Moroccan Sugar Su upply and Utilization Sugar Beet Area Harvested Yield Production

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

50

51

52

58.00

59.24

60.00

2,900

3,046

3,095

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

51

(Thousand Hectares) 51 51 51

51

51

51

51

60.59

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 61.11 61.60 62.08

62.55

63.03

63.50

63.98

3,116

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,129 3,140 3,150

3,172

3,196

3,222

3,247

21

21

21

22

18

18

18

19

(Thousand Hectares) 19 20 20

Yield

66.67

63.64

62.78

62.78

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 63.15 63.65 64.21

64.80

65.40

66.00

66.60

Production

1,200

1,152

1,156

1,181

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,215 1,253 1,292

1,333

1,374

1,416

1,458

475 225 700

457 175 632

463 147 610

468 132 600

474 125 599

480 123 603

486 126 611

493 130 623

501 136 637

508 143 652

516 151 667

990 175 1,165

1,008 147 1,155

1,027 132 1,159

1,045 125 1,170

1,063 123 1,187

1,081 126 1,206

1,098 130 1,228

1,117 136 1,253

1,135 143 1,278

1,153 151 1,304

1,171 159 1,330

-465

-523

-549

-570

-588

-603

-617

-630

-641

-653

-663

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

7

7

7

7

7

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

Pakistani Sugar Sup upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

7

7

7

7

25.71

26.35

26.56

26.67

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 26.75 26.83 26.91

26.99

27.07

27.15

27.23

180

182

182

182

(Thousand Metric Tons) 182 183 183

184

185

185

186

Sugarcane Area Harvested

1,054

1,022

1,006

1,000

(Thousand Hectares) 999 1,002 1,008

1,014

1,021

1,029

1,037

Yield

45.31

46.97

48.04

48.97

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 49.86 50.73 51.60

52.47

53.34

54.21

55.08

(Thousand Metric Tons) 49,818 50,850 51,991

53,206

54,471

55,772

57,101

Sugar Beet Area Harvested Yield Production

Production

(Thousand Hectares) 7 7

47,743

47,984

48,316

48,949

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,510 447 2,957

2,523 407 2,930

2,545 395 2,940

2,583 389 2,972

2,634 387 3,020

2,693 385 3,078

2,759 383 3,142

2,828 381 3,209

2,901 378 3,279

2,976 375 3,351

3,052 372 3,424

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

3,250 407 3,657

3,252 395 3,647

3,259 389 3,648

3,274 387 3,661

3,295 385 3,680

3,322 383 3,705

3,356 381 3,737

3,400 378 3,778

3,449 375 3,825

3,507 372 3,880

3,573 368 3,942

-700

-717

-709

-689

-659

-627

-595

-569

-545

-529

-518

Net Trade

318 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Peruvian Sugar Sup pply and Utilization Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

62

64

65

116.13

116.24

7,200

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

66

(Thousand Hectares) 67 67 68

68

68

69

69

116.63

117.15

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 117.73 118.33 118.94

119.55

120.17

120.79

121.41

7,427

7,595

7,730

(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,842 7,940 8,036

8,133

8,220

8,309

8,395

720 130 850

744 130 874

765 129 894

782 128 910

797 127 924

811 125 937

823 124 947

834 122 957

845 121 966

856 119 975

866 117 984

975 130 1,105

991 129 1,120

1,007 128 1,135

1,026 127 1,153

1,046 125 1,172

1,068 124 1,192

1,090 122 1,213

1,116 121 1,237

1,144 119 1,263

1,173 117 1,291

1,204 115 1,319

-255

-246

-241

-242

-247

-255

-266

-280

-297

-316

-336

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Philippine Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

370

371

372

374

(Thousand Hectares) 376 377 379

380

381

382

382

54.05

57.86

59.25

59.95

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 60.44 60.88 61.30

61.72

62.13

62.54

62.96

20,000

21,475

22,071

22,420

(Thousand Metric Tons) 22,703 22,969 23,234

23,471

23,685

23,885

24,073

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

1,650 460 2,110

1,649 338 1,987

1,706 274 1,980

1,744 238 1,982

1,777 215 1,992

1,809 198 2,008

1,842 185 2,027

1,872 176 2,048

1,901 168 2,070

1,929 162 2,091

1,957 156 2,113

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

1,930 338 2,268

1,962 274 2,236

1,995 238 2,233

2,028 215 2,243

2,061 198 2,259

2,089 185 2,274

2,114 176 2,290

2,142 168 2,310

2,168 162 2,330

2,193 156 2,350

2,218 151 2,369

-158

-249

-254

-261

-267

-266

-263

-262

-260

-258

-256

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 319

South African Suga ar Supply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

322

324

326

74.53

74.63

24,000

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

328

(Thousand Hectares) 331 333 336

338

341

343

346

74.88

75.13

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 75.38 75.63 75.88

76.13

76.38

76.63

76.88

24,169

24,413

24,672

(Thousand Metric Tons) 24,937 25,206 25,478

25,755

26,030

26,308

26,585

2,800 520 3,320

2,820 545 3,365

2,848 471 3,319

2,878 440 3,318

2,909 426 3,335

2,941 418 3,358

2,972 411 3,384

3,005 404 3,409

3,037 401 3,438

3,069 397 3,466

3,102 395 3,496

1,380 545 1,925

1,400 471 1,871

1,413 440 1,853

1,424 426 1,850

1,434 418 1,852

1,441 411 1,853

1,448 404 1,852

1,455 401 1,856

1,460 397 1,857

1,463 395 1,858

1,467 392 1,859

1,395

1,494

1,466

1,469

1,483

1,506

1,531

1,553

1,581

1,608

1,638

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 123 126 126 123 126 126

0 124 124

0 121 121

0 117 117

0 112 112

South Korean Suga ar Supply and Utilization

Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

0 83 83

0 80 80

0 102 102

0 115 115

1,173 80 1,253

1,212 102 1,314

1,258 115 1,374

1,308 123 1,431

1,359 126 1,485

1,408 126 1,534

1,455 124 1,579

1,506 121 1,627

1,553 117 1,670

1,602 112 1,714

1,647 107 1,754

-1,170

-1,234

-1,272

-1,315

-1,363

-1,408

-1,453

-1,503

-1,549

-1,597

-1,642

320 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Thai Sugar Supply and a Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

920

925

931

56.52

57.93

52,000

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

937

(Thousand Hectares) 943 949 955

962

968

974

980

58.72

59.33

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 59.87 60.41 60.93

61.45

61.98

62.50

63.02

53,600

54,665

55,580

(Thousand Metric Tons) 56,457 57,329 58,206

59,089

59,979

60,875

61,778

5,600 430 6,030

5,772 380 6,152

5,887 415 6,302

5,986 437 6,422

6,080 451 6,531

6,174 460 6,634

6,268 466 6,734

6,363 467 6,830

6,459 470 6,929

6,556 471 7,027

6,653 473 7,126

1,850 380 2,230

1,898 415 2,314

1,949 437 2,385

2,001 451 2,452

2,056 460 2,516

2,112 466 2,578

2,171 467 2,637

2,232 470 2,702

2,295 471 2,767

2,361 473 2,834

2,428 473 2,901

3,800

3,838

3,917

3,970

4,015

4,057

4,096

4,128

4,162

4,193

4,225

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

Turkish Sugar Supp ply and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

395

378

371

370

(Thousand Hectares) 371 372 374

376

378

381

383

40.51

40.94

41.41

41.89

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 42.38 42.86 43.34

43.82

44.30

44.78

45.26

16,000

15,457

15,382

15,503

(Thousand Metric Tons) 15,705 15,943 16,208

16,491

16,766

17,051

17,333

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply

2,200 649 2,849

2,125 309 2,434

2,117 326 2,443

2,135 335 2,470

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,164 2,199 2,237 341 344 345 2,505 2,543 2,581

2,277 343 2,621

2,317 342 2,659

2,358 340 2,698

2,399 337 2,736

Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

2,140 309 2,449

2,190 326 2,517

2,242 335 2,578

2,295 341 2,636

2,350 344 2,694

2,405 345 2,749

2,460 343 2,803

2,518 342 2,860

2,576 340 2,916

2,636 337 2,974

2,697 334 3,031

400

-82

-135

-166

-189

-207

-222

-240

-257

-276

-294

Sugar Beet Area Harvested

Yield

Production

Net Trade

World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 321

Venezuelan Sugar Supply S and Utilization 00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

117

117

117

Yield

59.40

59.08

Production

6,950

Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use

Sugarcane Area Harvested

Net Trade

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

117

(Thousand Hectares) 117 117 117

118

118

118

118

59.12

59.29

(Metric Tons per Hectare) 59.51 59.75 59.99

60.24

60.48

60.73

60.98

6,918

6,928

6,952

(Thousand Metric Tons) 6,983 7,015 7,047

7,080

7,112

7,144

7,175

535 275 810

536 145 681

540 124 665

546 115 661

551 112 664

558 113 671

562 117 678

566 122 687

570 128 698

574 135 709

577 142 720

680 145 825

682 124 807

684 115 799

684 112 796

685 113 798

683 117 800

682 122 804

682 128 810

680 135 815

679 142 821

676 150 826

-15

-126

-134

-136

-134

-130

-126

-122

-117

-112

-107

WORLD MEAT

324 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Meat Prices Dollars per CWT 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Beef

Pork

Poultry

World Meat Production and Trade Million Metric Tons

Thousand Metric Tons

200

6,000

180 5,000

160 140

4,000

120 100

3,000

80 2,000

60 40

1,000

20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Beef Production

Pork Production

Poultry Production

Beef Trade (tmt)

Pork Trade (tmt)

Poultry Trade (tmt)

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 325

World Meat Trade and U.S. Market Share Percent

Million Metric Tons 14

35

12

30

10

25

8

20

6

15

4

10

2

5

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

U.S.

2001

2002

2003

Other Exporters

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0 2010

U.S. Market Share

EU Per Capita Meat Consumption Kilograms per Person 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Beef

Pork

Poultry

326 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Beef and Veal The fed steer price in the U.S. is expected to increase 3.27 percent annually over the next three years as herds build, peaking at $76.64/cwt in 2003. Beef trade rises 30 percent over the baseline, with the largest increase in imports occurring in Japan, Russia, Taiwan, and South Korea. Mexican beef imports surge to 547 tmt in 2003 as domestic cattle herds are rebuilt and as consumption rises steadily. Low-cost producers, such as Brazil, Canada, and the United States, gain export market share. The EU’s share of beef trade drops due to BSE concerns. Australia loses some export share in the outer years of the projection period but makes significant increases in live cattle exports. Argentina regains lost market share. Despite reported FMD cases from illegally imported cattle, Argentina’s net beef exports grow by 3.55 percent in the first half of the decade, accelerating to 6.33 percent in the second half and reaching 566 tmt in 2010. As U.S. beef prices rise over the next three years, Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand expand beef exports by 272, 110, and 96 tmt. In the latter half of the baseline, the United States and Argentina are expected to increase their share of beef trade, while the EU recovers some exports lost during the BSE crisis. Canada is retaining more cattle for domestic slaughter with its additional slaughter capacity, cutting in half its annual average live cattle export to the United States compared to the peak level of 1.15 million head in 1996. Australia’s live cattle export to Asian countries, including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, increases 54 percent in the next decade, reaching 1.34 million head in 2010. With the exception of Austria, Finland, and Sweden, BSE outbreaks have been reported in the rest of the European Union, particularly France and Germany, which account for 43 percent of total cattle stock in the EU. As a consequence, the EU has implemented a Purchase for Destruction Scheme, which is projected to reduce EU beef production by 10.4 percent in 2001. EU beef production drops 13 percent between 1999 and 2002. Production increases temporarily from 2003 to 2005, but with fewer dairy cattle, EU beef output declines for the remainder of the decade. Annual beef consumption in the EU declined 5.8 percent in 2000 and is expected to decline another 8.1 percent in 2001. EU consumers are substituting other meats for beef, particularly poultry. Per capita poultry consumption increases to 16.3 kg in 2002. Beef consumption returns to a more gradual downward trend by 2005. Agenda 2000 reforms reduce beef intervention prices by 20 percent and crop intervention prices by 15 percent. Also, public intervention purchases of beef are replaced with private storage aid at the end of 2002. However, more flexible public intervention was introduced in the wake of the recent BSE scare. The EU’s beef export dropped by 30 percent in 2000 due to the combined effect of low intervention stocks in the first ten months and a unilateral import restriction imposed by third countries. Concerns over BSE keep exports below the GATT limit. South Korea’s liberalization of beef imports in 2001 contributes to the growing share of imports in total consumption, rising from 16 percent in the 1990s to 24 percent at the end of the next decade.

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 327

Beef and Veal Trade e 2000

2001

2002

2003

Net Exporters Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China - Mainland European Union * Hungary New Zealand Poland Slovenia Thailand Ukraine United States

352 1,210 568 285 31 290 4 458 35 3 0 79 -243

396 1,247 578 296 44 195 7 492 40 1 2 79 -235

404 1,273 691 296 51 190 6 522 29 1 2 58 -285

Total Net Exports

3,071

3,141

18 66 3 3 20 1,000 2 2 400 15 121 85 1 445 0 268 95 527

Net Importers Bulgaria China - Hong Kong Czech Republic Estonia Indonesia Japan Latvia Lithuania Mexico Other Eastern Europe Other Former Soviet Union Philippines Romania Russia Slovakia South Korea Taiwan Rest of World Total Net Imports Nebraska Direct Fed Steer Price

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

420 1,320 840 283 53 196 5 554 13 1 9 94 -355

(Thousand Metric Tons) 420 416 446 1,340 1,370 1,376 861 860 778 282 313 336 45 37 30 179 169 205 2 0 -2 563 574 579 -5 -19 -40 1 1 1 7 4 0 106 124 129 -211 -146 22

478 1,365 711 328 24 273 -5 582 -48 1 -3 124 147

509 1,341 662 313 21 295 -7 583 -52 2 -2 113 259

548 1,310 649 307 18 337 -8 590 -54 3 3 97 214

566 1,267 648 292 16 399 -9 594 -51 5 13 72 194

3,237

3,432

3,589

3,705

3,859

3,977

4,037

4,015

4,006

18 70 1 5 5 981 0 6 378 13 119 69 4 537 0 319 97 519

26 72 12 5 26 990 0 6 389 9 95 84 10 534 -1 335 100 545

26 74 20 5 18 1,011 -2 3 547 6 100 96 14 533 -4 352 102 529

32 77 33 6 43 1,037 -1 3 560 6 88 123 21 591 -5 371 107 496

37 81 39 6 52 1,050 -1 3 480 6 90 141 27 637 -3 387 111 562

42 84 45 6 58 1,062 0 4 533 6 83 159 33 678 -1 400 115 551

46 87 50 7 59 1,080 2 4 541 6 84 172 37 688 1 413 121 580

47 90 52 7 57 1,095 3 3 525 9 82 179 40 688 3 424 126 607

46 92 53 6 57 1,101 4 0 481 13 89 178 42 683 5 431 130 604

44 94 49 5 55 1,107 4 -3 448 17 98 175 44 669 6 436 134 627

3,071

3,141

3,237

3,432

3,589

3,705

3,859

3,977

4,037

4,015

4,006

1,536

1,642

1,676

1,690

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,635 1,586 1,538

1,501

1,482

1,493

1,516

* Includes meat and meat equivalent of o live cattle trade.

2004

2005

328 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Major Beef Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995

1996

Japan

1997

1998

Russia

1999 Mexico

2000

2001

2002

South Korea

2003

2004

Other FSU

2005

2006

Taiwan

2007

2008

Philippines

2009

2010

Hong Kong

Beef Export Market Share Percent 50

40

30

20

10

0

-10 Australia

Brazil

New Zealand 1995/2000

EU

Argentina 2001/2005

Canada 2006/2010

China

U.S.

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 329

EU Beef Supply and Utilization Million Metric Tons

Thousand Metric Tons 2,000

8.0

1,600 7.5 1,200 7.0 800 6.5 400

0

6.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Production

Consumption

Export (tmt)

Stock (tmt)

Live Cattle and Beef Export Thousand Head

Thousand Metric Tons 600

1,600 1,400

500 1,200 400 1,000 300

800 600

200 400 100 200 0

0 1990

1992

1994

1996 Australia-Live

1998

2000

2002

Canada-Live

2004

2006

Argentina-Beef

2008

2010

330 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Pork U.S. pork prices recovered in 2000, but a buildup in market hog inventories pushes prices down to $34.54 per cwt in 2002. Prices strengthen slightly in the long run. World pork import demand increases by 39 percent in the next decade, driven by economic and population growth in Asia, the FSU, South America, and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Low feed grain prices and productivity improvements enable the United States and Canada to increase their share of the international pork trade, expanding net exports by 351 and 339 tmt respectively. Despite losing market share, the EU increases its pork exports by 75 tmt over the baseline. China’s pork consumption grows in excess of production, causing China to become a net importer in 2005. Chinese pork net imports reach 32 tmt in 2010. Slight recovery at the end of the decade provides more exportable surplus of pork from the CEECs. Investment in additional slaughter capacity, adoption of better coordination mechanisms, and flexibility in meat processing operations are the engines of growth for Canada’s swine sector. As domestic slaughter capacity increases, Canadian live swine export to the U.S. falls 20 percent below the peak of 4.14 million head in 1999. Canada’s net exports of pork reach 1.02 mmt in 2010, with an increasing share destined for Asian markets. An FMD outbreak in 2000 closed South Korea’s access to Japan’s pork import market. Korean pork exports recover gradually by the end of the baseline Japan remains the world’s largest pork importer. However, deficiency payments stabilize domestic production and slow expansion of pork imports to 1.36 percent annually compared to 6.58 percent in the 1990s. Rapid pork consumption growth expands Mexico’s net imports to 285 tmt in 2010. Fiscal incentives encourage investments in new production facilities in the grain-surplus regions of central and western Brazil. Pork production and exports increase, doubling Brazil’s export market share from 3 to 6 percent.

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 331

Pork Trade Net Exporters Australia Brazil Canada European Union Hungary Poland Other Former Soviet Union Thailand United States Total Net Exports Net Imports Argentina Bulgaria China - Hong Kong China - Mainland Czech Republic Estonia Indonesia Japan Latvia Lithuania Mexico New Zealand Other Eastern Europe Philippines Romania Russia Slovakia Slovenia South Korea Taiwan Ukraine Rest of World Total Net Imports Barrow and Gilt Price, National Base 51-52% Lean Equivalent

2000

2001

2002

2003

10 84 680 1,124 99 120 0 3 132

34 152 750 986 101 119 -6 22 150

37 199 710 1,104 124 140 -6 37 222

2,252

2,308

66 3 220 10 10 14 1 880 9 4 95 9 55 15 12 299 26 17 110 60 8 328

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

37 129 874 1,272 111 110 -4 0 180

(Thousand Metric Tons) 21 15 14 133 156 189 977 982 939 1,178 1,078 1,071 111 114 121 109 113 125 -3 0 3 -11 -4 11 185 265 343

9 182 1,009 1,019 116 126 5 12 343

4 168 1,085 960 115 121 7 8 362

-2 175 1,061 1,023 116 126 6 15 421

-10 163 1,019 1,197 117 135 4 17 483

2,567

2,710

2,701

2,720

2,816

2,821

2,831

2,941

3,124

66 14 224 9 22 14 -23 894 8 2 129 9 59 9 30 348 14 18 55 71 -12 348

58 20 234 19 20 13 -31 948 7 0 251 11 58 0 42 352 -3 15 83 85 0 384

75 31 233 -4 49 13 -17 938 9 3 238 10 58 36 65 382 10 17 78 93 33 360

79 32 236 -8 56 13 1 923 10 4 208 15 56 16 69 400 14 18 60 95 35 371

76 31 248 6 52 14 -3 918 10 3 218 14 52 24 65 395 16 17 53 105 26 381

70 28 261 23 47 13 -8 955 10 1 265 12 48 26 56 381 14 17 58 118 14 407

71 27 264 18 51 14 1 956 10 1 245 11 43 52 49 389 17 17 51 113 15 406

75 26 266 13 52 14 14 950 11 2 209 11 40 82 46 408 22 19 42 108 17 403

74 22 276 22 50 15 20 973 11 1 235 10 38 98 33 431 23 19 45 110 14 421

74 20 286 32 45 15 19 1,004 12 1 285 9 36 125 20 477 24 19 53 113 15 438

2,252

2,308

2,567

2,710

2,701

2,720

2,816

2,821

2,831

2,941

3,124

985

895

762

914

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,006 947 864

936

1,011

959

902

332 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Major Pork Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 1995

1996

1997

1998 Japan

1999

2000

Russia

2001

2002

Hong Kong

2003

2004

Mexico

2005

Argentina

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

South Korea

Pork Export Market Share Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 EU

Canada

U.S. 1995/2000

Poland 2001/2005

Brazil 2006/2010

Hungary

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 333

Canadian Pork and Swine Export Thousand MT, Head 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Pork

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Swine

China Pork Supply and Utilization Million Metric Tons

Thousand Metric Tons 300

40 35

250 30 200 25 150

20 15

100 10 50 5 0 1990

1992

1994

1996

Production

1998

2000

Consumption

2002

2004

Export (tmt)

2006

2008

Import (tmt)

2010

334 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Poultry Poultry consumption grows fastest among all meats, accounting for half of the growth in per capita meat consumption in the next decade. U.S. broiler consumption is expected to increase 36.1 percent over the baseline, reaching 50.6 kg per person by 2010. U.S. broiler production expands 2.8 percent annually, which is sufficient to hold average broiler prices at $57.34/cwt. Availability of improved technology raises production in many countries, alleviating the impact on trade and prices of the long-run shift toward poultry consumption. Substantial growth in poultry consumption is also projected for Australia, Mexico, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. With the exception of Hong Kong, the bulk of the increase in poultry consumption is supplied by domestic production. World poultry imports increase by 20 percent in the next decade, driven by strong demand in Japan, China, Russia, and Hong Kong. Improvement of production infrastructure in large broiler operations causes imports in Russia and Mexico to decline in the medium term. Broiler trade is projected to increase 806 tmt by 2010. The United States and Brazil supply 37 and 45 percent of the increase in broiler import demand. Cheap poultry exports and currency devaluation fuel Brazil’s gain in export market share from 18 to 26 percent. The U.S.’s share is stable, then declines slightly at the close of the decade. The EU and Thailand lose market share. Complementary demands for broiler parts in China and the United States drive China’s imports to 859 tmt in 2010. Driven by similar patterns of macroeconomic and population growth, the combined net poultry imports of Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea increase from 81 tmt to 173 tmt.

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 335

Broiler Meat Trade Net Exporters Australia Brazil European Union Hungary Slovenia Thailand United States Total Net Exports Net Importers Argentina Bulgaria Canada China - Mainland China - Hong Kong Czech Republic Estonia Indonesia Japan Latvia Lithuania Mexico New Zealand Other Eastern Europe Other Former Soviet Union Philippines Poland Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Slovakia South Korea Taiwan Ukraine Rest of World Total Net Imports

U.S. 12-City Price

2000

2001

2002

2003

13 870 403 40 0 270 2,480

23 858 399 36 -3 312 2,512

20 924 399 32 -1 274 2,554

4,076

4,137

30 9 18 770 286 12 11 7 546 13 5 159 -4 43 122 23 -2 19 895 352 2 51 13 81 615

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

33 1,025 414 38 0 241 2,544

(Thousand Metric Tons) 37 43 49 1,155 1,175 1,206 418 419 420 41 43 49 1 1 1 204 196 206 2,531 2,584 2,584

56 1,245 423 50 1 231 2,595

64 1,255 426 53 0 255 2,635

59 1,243 430 54 -1 283 2,712

56 1,235 435 60 0 318 2,777

4,203

4,296

4,388

4,461

4,515

4,600

4,688

4,780

4,882

54 8 28 775 291 21 13 -15 530 13 4 135 -1 43 125 48 -8 31 925 363 -1 33 15 81 626

64 2 -11 772 296 34 13 28 547 13 5 109 5 40 119 59 -18 29 897 367 -5 35 14 114 675

48 7 -4 773 301 45 12 -6 569 13 4 128 3 39 119 56 -23 29 861 371 -10 40 13 106 802

35 7 9 789 307 56 12 21 580 13 4 139 8 37 116 52 -25 30 835 378 -15 44 14 100 843

35 6 6 805 312 60 13 17 592 13 4 138 8 35 115 57 -22 31 824 388 -13 48 14 97 877

35 4 -6 819 316 60 13 24 602 13 3 115 8 33 114 60 -16 32 813 396 -12 52 14 94 927

25 5 -1 832 321 58 13 34 612 13 3 130 7 31 113 57 -17 33 789 403 -11 56 14 88 993

15 6 4 842 326 56 13 38 623 13 2 148 7 31 114 56 -20 34 790 411 -11 61 14 82 1,033

11 6 -4 850 330 61 13 52 634 13 1 135 6 33 118 60 -18 36 836 418 -11 65 14 79 1,041

1 6 -18 859 334 57 13 41 645 13 1 116 1 34 122 63 -24 37 901 424 -12 69 14 76 1,111

4,076

4,137

4,203

4,296

4,388

4,461

4,515

4,600

4,688

4,780

4,882

1,239

1,258

1,264

1,264

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,264 1,260 1,262

1,266

1,269

1,275

1,284

336 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Major Broiler Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995

1996

1997

1998

Japan

1999

2000

China

2001 Russia

2002

2003

Hong Kong

2004

2005

2006

Saudi Arabia

2007

2008

2009

Mexico

Broiler Export Market Share Percent 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 U.S.

Brazil

EU 1995/2000

2001/2005

Thailand 2006/2010

Hungary

2010

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 337

Per Capita Poultry Consumption of Selected Countries Kilograms per Person 60

50

40

30

20

10

0 Australia

China

EU

Hong Kong

1995/2000

Mexico

2001/2005

Korea

Taiwan

U.S.

2006/2010

Brazilian Broiler Supply and Utilization Million Metric Tons

Thousand Metric Tons

8

1,400

7

1,200

6

1,000

5 800 4 600 3 400

2

200

1

0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Production

2000

2002

Consumption

2004

2006

Export (tmt)

2008

2010

338 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Meat Supply an nd Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

98.0 53.6

97.3 55.3

97.2 54.6

97.9 53.8

(Million Head) 99.4 101.0 54.4 55.4

102.6 54.8

103.5 54.5

103.3 55.0

102.5 55.7

101.6 55.5

535 2,285

528 2,233

528 2,253

532 2,247

(Thousand Head) 533 532 530 2,220 2,195 2,174

529 2,155

527 2,149

525 2,162

526 2,174

74 4,365

74 3,917

74 3,836

74 3,716

74 3,633

74 3,600

74 3,580

74 3,581

74 3,568

74 3,531

Beef Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

12,195 1,395 13,777 12,416 1,152 209 13,777

11,890 1,418 13,516 12,161 1,182 172 13,516

11,764 1,463 13,399 12,049 1,178 172 13,399

11,781 1,509 13,462 12,136 1,153 173 13,462

(Thousand Metric Tons) 12,037 12,279 12,657 1,530 1,523 1,503 13,741 13,979 14,339 12,245 12,423 12,633 1,319 1,377 1,525 177 179 181 13,741 13,979 14,339

13,036 1,492 14,709 12,886 1,639 184 14,709

13,217 1,497 14,898 12,959 1,756 184 14,898

13,186 1,507 14,877 12,972 1,722 183 14,877

13,160 1,519 14,862 12,967 1,713 182 14,862

Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

8,589 443 9,254 8,441 575 238 9,254

8,881 473 9,593 8,719 623 250 9,593

9,137 464 9,851 8,915 686 250 9,851

9,033 518 9,800 8,866 697 237 9,800

9,079 538 9,855 8,894 724 237 9,855

9,300 519 10,056 9,027 784 245 10,056

9,519 504 10,269 9,172 847 249 10,269

9,515 537 10,301 9,178 880 243 10,301

9,589 562 10,394 9,227 924 243 10,394

9,775 562 10,579 9,348 982 249 10,579

9,965 553 10,768 9,478 1,036 254 10,768

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

13,642 14,003 11,160 2,483 363 14,005

14,000 14,363 11,478 2,514 373 14,364

14,406 14,779 11,849 2,556 375 14,780

14,831 15,206 12,283 2,546 378 15,208

15,282 15,661 12,746 2,533 383 15,662

15,692 16,075 13,105 2,586 385 16,076

16,119 16,505 13,532 2,586 388 16,506

16,550 16,938 13,952 2,596 391 16,940

17,008 17,400 14,369 2,637 396 17,402

17,474 17,870 14,757 2,714 402 17,872

17,974 18,375 15,189 2,779 409 18,377

Turkey Production Beg Stocks Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2,422 115 2,537 2,228 197 113 2,538

2,485 113 2,599 2,285 191 124 2,599

2,519 124 2,643 2,322 194 127 2,643

2,552 127 2,679 2,353 197 129 2,679

2,587 129 2,716 2,382 202 133 2,716

2,620 133 2,753 2,407 209 137 2,753

2,648 137 2,785 2,431 214 140 2,786

2,676 140 2,816 2,455 219 143 2,817

2,706 143 2,849 2,476 226 146 2,849

2,737 146 2,883 2,502 232 150 2,884

2,769 150 2,919 2,527 238 153 2,919

1,536

1,642

1,676

1,690

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,635 1,586 1,538

1,501

1,482

1,493

1,516

985 1,239

895 1,258

762 1,264

914 1,264

864 1,262

936 1,266

1,011 1,269

959 1,275

902 1,284

6.76 5.69 3.42 2.28

7.00 5.68 3.46 2.28

7.19 5.64 3.49 2.25

7.32 5.88 3.50 2.28

(U.S. Dollars per Kilogram) 7.32 7.26 7.26 6.05 6.01 5.98 3.51 3.51 3.53 2.33 2.32 2.33

7.24 6.15 3.56 2.35

7.32 6.34 3.59 2.37

7.42 6.32 3.60 2.39

7.61 6.31 3.63 2.40

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Live Cattle Trade Export Import Live Hog Trade Export Import

Producer Prices Nebraska Direct Fed Steers Barrow and Gilt Price, National Base 51-52% Lean Equivalent 12-City Broiler Wholesale Retail Prices Beef Pork Broiler Turkey

1,006 1,264

2005

74 3,598

947 1,260

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 339

Argentine Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

49.8

50.1

50.3

51.0

(Million Head) 52.2 53.9

Beef Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2,900 2,927 2,550 352 25 2,927

2,967 2,992 2,576 396 21 2,992

2,985 3,006 2,581 404 21 3,006

3,017 3,038 2,597 420 21 3,038

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

156 156 222 -66 0 156

160 160 226 -66 0 160

171 171 229 -58 0 171

170 170 245 -75 0 170

172 172 251 -79 0 172

177 177 253 -76 0 177

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

870 876 900 -30 6 876

867 873 921 -54 6 873

897 903 961 -64 6 903

938 944 986 -48 6 944

978 984 1,013 -35 6 984

1,010 1,016 1,045 -35 6 1,016

Producer Prices Beef Pork Broiler - Retail

0.86 0.87 1.93

0.96 0.95 1.95

1.00 1.02 1.96

1.01 0.95 1.96

Cattle Inventories (Beg.)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

55.6

57.2

58.4

59.0

59.1

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,039 3,108 3,187 3,060 3,129 3,208 2,619 2,691 2,741 420 416 446 21 21 21 3,060 3,129 3,208

3,264 3,285 2,787 478 21 3,285

3,333 3,354 2,824 509 21 3,354

3,396 3,417 2,847 548 21 3,417

3,430 3,451 2,864 566 21 3,451

185 185 255 -70 0 185

191 191 262 -71 0 191

195 195 270 -75 0 195

202 202 276 -74 0 202

209 209 284 -74 0 209

1,043 1,049 1,077 -35 6 1,049

1,081 1,087 1,106 -25 6 1,087

1,122 1,128 1,138 -15 6 1,128

1,165 1,171 1,176 -11 6 1,171

1,213 1,219 1,214 -1 6 1,219

(Argentine Peso per Kilogram) 0.96 0.91 0.86 0.96 0.99 1.04 1.96 1.95 1.96

0.82 1.04 1.96

0.80 1.04 1.96

0.81 1.08 1.97

0.84 1.10 1.98

340 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Australian Meat Sup pply and Utilization

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.) Live Cattle Trade Export

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

26.6 2.6 117.2

27.1 2.7 118.3

27.9 2.8 120.2

28.9 2.9 115.8

(Million Head) 29.9 30.8 3.1 3.1 116.2 109.4

31.5 3.1 106.7

31.8 3.1 106.8

31.8 3.1 108.7

31.5 3.2 111.4

31.0 3.2 113.8

870

922

949

960

(Thousand Head) 976 1,016 1,059

1,112

1,177

1,252

1,338

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,077 2,124 2,147 2,157 2,204 2,227 737 753 770 1,340 1,370 1,376 80 81 82 2,157 2,204 2,227

2,150 2,231 784 1,365 82 2,231

2,137 2,220 796 1,341 83 2,220

2,116 2,198 806 1,310 83 2,198

2,079 2,162 812 1,267 83 2,162

Beef Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,953 1,979 690 1,210 79 1,979

1,937 2,016 692 1,247 78 2,016

1,982 2,060 709 1,273 79 2,060

2,031 2,109 710 1,320 79 2,109

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

360 360 350 10 0 360

377 377 344 34 0 377

395 395 358 37 0 395

401 401 364 37 0 401

402 402 381 21 0 402

401 401 385 15 0 401

403 403 389 14 0 403

405 405 396 9 0 405

407 407 403 4 0 407

407 407 410 -2 0 407

407 407 418 -10 0 407

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

573 598 565 13 20 598

589 609 566 23 20 609

608 628 588 20 20 628

626 646 592 33 20 646

649 669 612 37 20 669

666 686 623 43 20 686

684 704 635 49 20 704

701 721 645 56 20 721

719 739 656 64 20 739

729 749 670 59 20 749

739 759 683 56 20 759

Lamb and Mutton Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

633 639 259 380 0 639

598 598 283 311 4 598

599 603 273 326 4 603

557 561 301 256 4 561

568 572 279 288 4 572

581 585 282 299 4 585

597 601 286 311 4 601

611 615 292 319 4 615

622 626 299 323 4 626

637 641 302 334 4 641

651 655 309 343 4 655

Producer Prices Beef Saleyard Pork Saleyard Poultry Farm Lamb Saleyard

213 240 359 187

250 260 366 146

249 268 363 200

237 246 356 133

(Australian Cents per Kilogram) 217 202 187 244 249 255 353 351 349 211 213 214

176 254 349 211

170 254 348 207

171 259 349 217

176 263 350 217

1,041 842 359 725

1,148 866 366 614

1,148 879 363 754

1,115 824 356 575

927 847 349 800

906 845 348 790

910 859 349 814

925 866 350 817

Retail Prices Beef Pork Poultry Sheep

1,057 825 353 779

1,010 838 351 801

963 850 349 808

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 341

Brazilian Meat Supp ply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

146.3 31.9

150.9 31.8

154.9 31.0

158.5 30.4

(Million Head) 161.4 163.8 30.7 30.8

Beef Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

6,450 6,452 5,879 568 5 6,452

6,626 6,631 6,048 578 5 6,631

6,816 6,821 6,125 691 5 6,821

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,950 1,955 1,866 84 5 1,955

2,066 2,071 1,913 152 5 2,071

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

5,860 6,010 4,990 870 150 6,010

2.40 1.70 0.75

Producer Prices Beef Pork Broiler - Wholesale

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

165.7 30.8

167.6 30.8

169.2 31.2

170.7 31.5

172.0 31.5

7,036 7,040 6,196 840 5 7,040

(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,199 7,345 7,414 7,204 7,350 7,419 6,338 6,485 6,636 861 860 778 5 5 5 7,204 7,350 7,419

7,483 7,488 6,772 711 5 7,488

7,554 7,559 6,892 662 5 7,559

7,640 7,645 6,991 649 5 7,645

7,723 7,728 7,075 648 5 7,728

2,159 2,164 1,960 199 5 2,164

2,174 2,179 2,045 129 5 2,179

2,219 2,224 2,086 133 5 2,224

2,264 2,269 2,108 156 5 2,269

2,318 2,323 2,129 189 5 2,323

2,347 2,352 2,165 182 5 2,352

2,371 2,376 2,203 168 5 2,376

2,413 2,418 2,238 175 5 2,418

2,440 2,445 2,277 163 5 2,445

6,014 6,164 5,206 858 100 6,164

6,248 6,348 5,323 924 100 6,348

6,466 6,566 5,441 1,025 100 6,566

6,671 6,771 5,516 1,155 100 6,771

6,815 6,915 5,640 1,175 100 6,915

6,962 7,062 5,756 1,206 100 7,062

7,109 7,209 5,864 1,245 100 7,209

7,245 7,345 5,990 1,255 100 7,345

7,382 7,482 6,138 1,243 100 7,482

7,516 7,616 6,281 1,235 100 7,616

3.01 2.02 0.92

3.54 2.42 1.12

4.01 2.44 1.31

(Reais per Kilogram) 4.25 4.33 4.44 2.69 2.94 3.25 1.52 1.64 1.79

4.58 3.44 1.95

4.78 3.62 2.10

5.12 3.93 2.27

5.54 4.21 2.45

342 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Bulgarian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

0.7 1.7

0.7 1.6

0.7 1.5

0.7 1.4

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

95 100 110 -18 8 100

90 98 111 -18 5 98

88 93 114 -26 5 93

88 93 114 -26 5 93

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

245 251 253 -3 1 251

241 242 255 -14 1 242

237 238 257 -20 1 238

231 232 262 -31 1 232

231 232 263 -32 1 232

233 234 263 -31 1 234

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

100 105 110 -9 3 104

103 106 112 -8 2 106

110 112 114 -2 0 112

111 111 118 -7 0 111

112 112 119 -7 0 112

114 114 120 -6 0 114

2,458 2,908 2,451

2,379 2,874 2,426

2,217 2,893 2,440

2,179 2,698 2,298

Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.6

0.9 1.6

(Thousand Metric Tons) 85 83 82 90 88 87 117 121 124 -32 -37 -42 5 5 5 90 88 87

81 86 127 -46 5 86

81 86 129 -47 5 86

83 88 129 -46 5 88

85 90 130 -44 5 90

235 236 263 -28 1 236

238 239 264 -27 1 239

240 241 266 -26 1 241

244 245 266 -22 1 245

247 248 267 -20 1 248

117 117 121 -4 0 117

118 118 123 -5 0 118

118 118 124 -6 0 118

120 120 126 -6 0 120

122 122 128 -6 0 122

(Leva per Kilogram) 1,977 1,815 1,659 2,688 2,745 2,814 2,291 2,332 2,383

1,532 2,804 2,375

1,454 2,790 2,365

1,456 2,843 2,404

1,489 2,873 2,425

(Million Head) 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.5

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 343

Canadian Meat Sup pply and Utilization

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

12.7 12.3

12.6 12.5

12.6 13.3

12.9 15.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Million Head) 13.3 13.8 14.8 14.9

14.2 16.1

14.4 17.3

14.5 16.9

14.5 16.6

14.5 17.5

(Thousand Head) 727 724 290 291

724 291

722 291

723 291

722 291

714 293

Live Cattle Trade Export Import Live Hog Trade Export Import

925 275

777 274

760 279

739 286

4,000 10

3,552 10

3,469 10

3,349 10

3,265 10

3,233 10

3,212 10

3,215 10

3,201 10

3,164 10

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,260 1,292 979 285 28 1,292

1,268 1,296 972 296 28 1,296

1,265 1,293 968 296 28 1,293

1,281 1,309 999 283 28 1,309

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,313 1,361 1,397 1,341 1,389 1,425 1,031 1,047 1,060 282 313 336 28 28 28 1,341 1,389 1,425

1,417 1,445 1,089 328 28 1,445

1,427 1,455 1,114 313 28 1,455

1,429 1,457 1,121 307 28 1,457

1,420 1,448 1,127 292 28 1,448

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,675 1,708 998 680 30 1,708

1,773 1,803 1,024 750 30 1,803

1,802 1,832 1,091 710 30 1,832

1,936 1,966 1,061 874 30 1,966

2,029 2,059 1,052 977 30 2,059

2,066 2,096 1,083 982 30 2,096

2,064 2,094 1,125 939 30 2,094

2,126 2,156 1,117 1,009 30 2,156

2,195 2,225 1,110 1,085 30 2,225

2,205 2,235 1,144 1,061 30 2,235

2,202 2,232 1,183 1,019 30 2,232

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

890 910 909 -18 19 910

906 925 933 -28 20 925

947 967 936 11 20 967

978 998 974 4 20 998

992 1,012 1,001 -9 20 1,012

1,005 1,025 1,011 -6 20 1,025

1,025 1,045 1,018 6 20 1,045

1,044 1,064 1,043 1 20 1,064

1,065 1,085 1,069 -4 20 1,085

1,086 1,106 1,082 4 20 1,106

1,114 1,134 1,096 18 20 1,134

Prices Beef and Veal Pork Broiler - Wholesale

95 73 117

100 65 117

99 51 115

97 62 112

(Canadian Dollars per Cwt) 92 88 84 68 62 55 111 110 109

82 60 109

80 66 109

80 61 109

80 56 108

3,230 10

344 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

China - Mainland Meat Me and Egg Supply and Utilization FAPRI Adjusted Dat ata 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.)

111.5 437.6 230.1

114.2 475.1 224.8

122.6 513.4 230.8

124.1 534.9 235.1

(Million Head) 131.5 132.2 544.5 549.4 237.0 236.9

Beef Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2,338 9 2,347 2,307 40 0 2,347

2,485 9 2,494 2,441 53 0 2,494

2,595 9 2,604 2,545 59 0 2,604

2,690 9 2,699 2,637 62 0 2,699

Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

28,843 120 28,963 28,853 110 0 28,963

29,951 119 30,070 29,960 111 0 30,070

30,809 125 30,933 30,828 105 0 30,933

31,467 113 31,580 31,463 117 0 31,580

31,990 111 32,101 31,981 120 0 32,101

32,472 118 32,590 32,478 112 0 32,590

Poultry Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

5,673 1,210 6,883 6,488 395 0 6,883

5,703 1,214 6,918 6,524 394 0 6,918

5,766 1,215 6,980 6,582 398 0 6,980

5,881 1,217 7,099 6,700 399 0 7,099

6,023 1,226 7,249 6,859 390 0 7,249

-770

-775

-772

-773

1,452 3 1,455 1,446 9 0 1,455

1,475 3 1,478 1,469 9 0 1,478

1,506 3 1,509 1,500 9 0 1,509

1,538 3 1,541 1,532 9 0 1,541

Broiler Net Trade Lamb and Mutton Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

139.0 553.8 235.6

139.1 559.5 233.7

145.4 566.6 231.8

145.1 574.7 230.5

151.0 582.9 230.0

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,777 2,862 2,951 9 9 9 2,785 2,871 2,960 2,732 2,825 2,921 54 46 39 0 0 0 2,785 2,871 2,960

3,042 9 3,051 3,017 34 0 3,051

3,127 9 3,137 3,107 30 0 3,137

3,212 9 3,221 3,194 28 0 3,221

3,296 9 3,306 3,280 26 0 3,306

32,980 127 33,107 33,004 104 0 33,107

33,532 124 33,656 33,550 106 0 33,656

34,066 121 34,187 34,079 109 0 34,187

34,565 126 34,691 34,587 104 0 34,691

35,036 131 35,167 35,067 100 0 35,167

6,174 1,235 7,408 7,027 381 0 7,408

6,331 1,244 7,574 7,201 374 0 7,574

6,492 1,251 7,743 7,375 368 0 7,743

6,640 1,258 7,898 7,534 364 0 7,898

6,773 1,264 8,037 7,677 360 0 8,037

6,897 1,270 8,166 7,810 357 0 8,166

-789

-805

-819

-832

-842

-850

-859

1,567 3 1,570 1,561 9 0 1,570

1,592 3 1,595 1,586 9 0 1,595

1,617 3 1,620 1,611 9 0 1,620

1,642 3 1,645 1,636 9 0 1,645

1,666 3 1,669 1,660 9 0 1,669

1,691 3 1,694 1,685 9 0 1,694

1,717 3 1,720 1,711 9 0 1,720

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 345

China - Mainland Meat Me and Egg Supply and Utilization (continued) FAPRI Adjusted Dat ata 2000

2001

2002

2003

16,070 0 16,070 16,024 46 0 16,070

15,978 0 15,978 15,930 47 0 15,978

16,107 0 16,107 16,057 50 0 16,107

Producer Prices Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Egg

14.71 9.73 12.83 17.53 6.22

13.60 8.74 13.11 17.60 6.30

Retail Prices Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Eggs

15.71 16.92 13.07 19.72 7.29

14.53 15.80 13.35 19.80 7.39

Eggs Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

16,359 0 16,359 16,308 51 0 16,359

(Thousand Metric Tons) 16,648 16,951 17,263 0 0 0 16,648 16,951 17,263 16,603 16,910 17,225 45 42 38 0 0 0 16,648 16,951 17,263

17,574 0 17,574 17,539 35 0 17,574

17,850 0 17,850 17,817 33 0 17,850

18,108 0 18,109 18,077 31 0 18,109

18,366 0 18,366 18,337 30 0 18,366

13.83 8.59 13.63 18.18 6.55

14.35 8.94 14.27 19.11 6.90

(Yuan per Kilogram) 14.91 15.58 16.40 9.46 9.98 10.48 14.90 15.52 16.13 20.25 21.51 22.88 7.28 7.67 8.07

17.38 10.95 16.78 24.35 8.50

18.37 11.35 17.37 25.75 8.93

19.41 11.69 17.94 27.06 9.33

20.52 12.02 18.51 28.32 9.75

14.77 15.63 13.87 20.47 7.68

15.33 16.02 14.52 21.54 8.08

15.92 16.60 15.15 22.85 8.52

18.57 18.28 17.03 27.56 9.94

19.64 18.73 17.62 29.18 10.43

20.75 19.11 18.19 30.68 10.91

21.95 19.48 18.76 32.13 11.39

16.64 17.20 15.76 24.30 8.97

17.53 17.75 16.38 25.88 9.44

346 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

China - Mainland Meat Me and Egg Supply and Utilization Official Data 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.)

142.9 449.2 270.6

146.3 487.7 264.3

157.1 527.0 271.4

159.0 549.0 276.4

(Million Head) 168.5 169.4 558.9 563.9 278.6 278.5

Beef Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

5,350 9 5,359 5,319 40 0 5,359

5,678 9 5,687 5,634 53 0 5,687

5,927 9 5,936 5,877 59 0 5,936

6,143 9 6,152 6,090 62 0 6,152

Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

41,600 120 41,720 41,610 110 0 41,720

43,197 119 43,317 43,206 111 0 43,317

44,437 125 44,561 44,456 105 0 44,561

45,381 113 45,494 45,377 117 0 45,494

46,134 111 46,245 46,126 120 0 46,245

46,833 118 46,951 46,839 112 0 46,951

Poultry Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

11,350 1,210 12,560 12,165 395 0 12,560

11,411 1,214 12,625 12,231 394 0 12,625

11,530 1,215 12,745 12,347 398 0 12,745

11,756 1,217 12,973 12,574 399 0 12,973

12,037 1,226 13,263 12,873 390 0 13,263

-770

-775

-772

-773

2,650 10 2,660 2,654 6 0 2,660

2,698 3 2,701 2,692 9 0 2,701

2,754 3 2,757 2,749 9 0 2,758

22,040 0 22,040 21,982 58 0 22,040

21,907 0 21,908 21,860 47 0 21,908

22,084 0 22,084 22,034 50 0 22,084

Broiler Net Trade Lamb and Mutton Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use Eggs Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

178.1 568.5 277.0

178.3 574.3 274.8

186.3 581.6 272.6

185.9 589.9 271.0

193.5 598.3 270.4

(Thousand Metric Tons) 6,348 6,549 6,758 9 9 9 6,356 6,558 6,767 6,303 6,512 6,728 54 46 39 0 0 0 6,356 6,558 6,767

6,970 9 6,979 6,945 34 0 6,979

7,169 9 7,178 7,148 30 0 7,178

7,365 9 7,374 7,347 28 0 7,374

7,560 9 7,569 7,543 26 0 7,569

47,570 127 47,697 47,593 104 0 47,697

48,364 124 48,488 48,382 106 0 48,488

49,133 121 49,255 49,146 109 0 49,255

49,855 126 49,981 49,876 104 0 49,981

50,536 131 50,667 50,568 100 0 50,667

12,337 1,235 13,572 13,191 381 0 13,572

12,650 1,244 13,893 13,519 374 0 13,893

12,967 1,251 14,219 13,851 368 0 14,219

13,259 1,258 14,517 14,153 364 0 14,517

13,522 1,264 14,786 14,426 360 0 14,786

13,766 1,270 15,036 14,679 357 0 15,036

-789

-805

-819

-832

-842

-850

-859

2,813 3 2,816 2,807 9 0 2,816

2,865 3 2,868 2,859 9 0 2,868

2,912 3 2,915 2,906 9 0 2,915

2,957 3 2,960 2,952 9 0 2,961

3,003 3 3,006 2,997 9 0 3,006

3,047 3 3,050 3,041 9 0 3,050

3,092 3 3,095 3,086 9 0 3,095

3,141 3 3,144 3,135 9 0 3,144

22,429 0 22,430 22,379 51 0 22,430

22,827 0 22,827 22,782 45 0 22,827

23,243 0 23,244 23,202 42 0 23,244

23,672 0 23,672 23,634 38 0 23,672

24,099 0 24,099 24,065 35 0 24,099

24,478 0 24,479 24,445 33 0 24,479

24,833 0 24,833 24,802 31 0 24,833

25,186 0 25,187 25,157 30 0 25,187

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 347

China - Hong Kong Meat Supply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

1.7 110.0

1.8 116.0

1.8 119.0

1.8 120.2

(Thousand Head) 1.8 1.9 1.9 119.3 119.4 120.4

1.9 120.9

1.9 120.3

1.9 120.4

1.9 121.1

Live Animal Trade Cattle Import Swine Import

64.9 1,891

71.0 1,982

73.5 2,019

74.9 2,085

73.3 2,080

69.2 1,960

67.4 1,964

66.1 1,977

65.3 1,954

64.6 1,923

Beef and Veal Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

18 72 90 84 6 0 90

13 76 89 84 5 0 89

14 77 91 86 5 0 91

14 79 93 88 5 0 93

(Thousand Metric Tons) 14 13 13 82 86 89 96 99 102 91 94 97 5 5 5 0 0 0 96 99 102

13 92 105 100 5 0 105

12 96 108 103 6 0 108

12 98 110 104 6 0 110

12 100 112 106 6 0 112

Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

165 264 429 385 44 0 429

170 264 435 395 40 0 435

171 275 446 405 41 0 446

177 271 448 410 38 0 448

177 273 450 414 36 0 450

173 286 459 421 38 0 459

168 301 469 428 41 0 469

169 305 473 432 41 0 473

170 307 477 437 41 0 477

168 317 485 444 41 0 485

165 329 494 451 43 0 494

Broiler Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

65 1,037 1,102 351 751 0 1,102

66 1,040 1,106 357 749 0 1,106

67 1,043 1,110 363 747 0 1,110

68 1,046 1,114 370 745 0 1,114

70 1,049 1,119 376 742 0 1,119

70 1,052 1,122 382 740 0 1,122

71 1,055 1,126 388 738 0 1,126

72 1,058 1,130 393 736 0 1,130

73 1,060 1,134 399 734 0 1,134

75 1,063 1,137 405 733 0 1,137

76 1,065 1,141 410 731 0 1,141

Retail Price Beef Pork Broiler

56.28 39.62 35.96

62.31 39.17 36.67

64.19 37.75 36.93

(Hong Kong Dollars per Kilogram) 65.88 65.66 65.36 64.99 39.84 42.06 42.14 41.71 37.06 37.17 37.16 37.30

65.08 43.63 37.53

65.69 45.49 37.70

67.22 45.43 37.98

69.15 45.03 38.32

71.3 2,021

348 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Czech Republic Mea eat Supply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

1.5 3.5

1.4 3.2

1.4 3.2

1.4 3.3

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

228 235 232 -3 6 235

216 222 217 -1 6 222

207 213 219 -12 6 213

200 206 221 -20 6 206

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

614 627 624 -10 13 627

594 607 616 -22 13 607

599 612 619 -20 13 612

581 594 631 -49 13 594

578 591 635 -56 13 591

583 596 635 -52 13 596

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

184 184 196 -12 0 184

184 184 205 -21 0 184

181 181 215 -34 0 181

176 176 221 -45 0 176

172 172 228 -56 0 172

173 173 233 -60 0 173

8,562 5,159 3,620

8,497 5,145 3,254

8,196 5,258 3,012

7,818 4,632 2,783

Producer Prices Beef Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1.4 3.5

1.4 3.5

1.5 3.5

1.5 3.6

1.5 3.6

(Thousand Metric Tons) 191 188 185 197 194 192 224 227 231 -33 -39 -45 6 6 6 197 194 192

183 190 233 -50 6 190

183 190 235 -52 6 190

184 190 237 -53 6 190

188 195 237 -49 6 195

587 600 635 -47 13 600

587 600 638 -51 13 600

590 603 641 -52 13 603

594 607 644 -50 13 607

600 613 645 -45 13 613

179 179 238 -60 0 179

185 185 243 -58 0 185

192 192 248 -56 0 192

195 195 255 -61 0 195

203 203 260 -57 0 203

(Koruny per 100 Kilogram) 6,981 6,576 6,198 4,458 4,600 4,781 2,562 2,510 2,489

5,840 4,737 2,451

5,607 4,683 2,405

5,383 4,676 2,268

5,463 4,745 2,268

(Million Head) 1.4 1.4 3.4 3.5

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 349

Estonian Meat Supp ply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

0.3 0.3

0.3 0.3

0.3 0.3

0.3 0.3

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

18 18 21 -3 0 18

18 18 23 -5 0 18

18 18 24 -5 0 18

19 19 24 -5 0 19

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

32 32 46 -14 0 32

32 32 46 -14 0 32

34 34 46 -13 0 34

34 34 47 -13 0 34

34 34 48 -13 0 34

34 34 48 -14 0 34

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

8 8 19 -11 0 8

7 7 20 -13 0 7

8 8 21 -13 0 8

9 9 21 -12 0 9

9 9 22 -12 0 9

10 10 22 -13 0 10

27.56 35.32 31.48

22.94 33.02 28.30

21.65 33.17 27.44

21.33 31.60 27.17

Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0.2 0.3

0.2 0.3

0.3 0.3

0.3 0.3

0.3 0.3

(Thousand Metric Tons) 20 21 22 20 21 22 25 27 28 -6 -6 -6 0 0 0 20 21 22

23 23 29 -7 0 23

24 24 30 -7 0 24

25 25 31 -6 0 25

27 27 32 -5 0 27

34 34 48 -13 0 34

34 34 48 -14 0 34

34 34 48 -14 0 34

34 34 49 -15 0 34

34 34 49 -15 0 34

10 10 23 -13 0 10

11 11 23 -13 0 11

11 11 24 -13 0 11

12 12 24 -13 0 12

12 12 25 -13 0 12

(Krooni per Kilogram) 19.71 17.83 16.52 31.53 31.67 32.17 26.97 26.52 26.39

15.41 32.02 26.28

14.65 31.82 26.12

14.48 32.12 25.99

14.57 32.24 25.91

(Million Head) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

350 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

European Union Me eat Supply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.)

82.3 124.3 97.9

81.9 123.2 97.1

81.4 121.1 98.4

80.8 121.8 98.7

(Million Head) 80.2 80.0 125.3 125.5 99.9 99.0

Beef and Veal Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports (Meat) Exports (Meat Equivalent) Ending Stocks Total Use

7,481 372 7,919 7,199 600 663 13 7,919

6,702 367 7,189 6,619 520 561 0 7,189

6,690 368 7,108 6,566 517 558 0 7,108

6,990 366 7,382 6,837 520 562 0 7,382

Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

18,061 76 18,555 16,940 1,200 491 18,555

18,187 77 18,678 17,203 1,063 488 18,678

18,499 79 18,988 17,394 1,183 489 18,988

18,719 77 19,208 17,444 1,349 492 19,208

18,720 76 19,212 17,541 1,255 493 19,212

18,664 77 19,157 17,586 1,155 493 19,157

Broiler Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

6,026 182 6,422 5,680 585 157 6,422

6,416 183 6,756 6,018 582 156 6,756

6,585 184 6,925 6,185 583 157 6,925

6,473 183 6,813 6,058 598 158 6,813

6,413 184 6,754 5,994 602 158 6,754

Lamb and Mutton Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,126 246 1,396 1,369 3 24 1,396

1,128 283 1,435 1,407 3 24 1,434

1,116 267 1,407 1,382 3 24 1,409

1,097 318 1,439 1,412 3 24 1,439

1,082 284 1,390 1,363 3 24 1,390

Producer Prices † Beef Pork Poultry Sheep

236 142 112 357

211 149 120 323

209 147 116 338

202 138 113 304

ght equivalent of live cattle trade. * Meat equivalent is the carcass weigh † Producer prices are projections of th the MLC reference price.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

79.8 124.4 98.7

79.6 123.8 98.6

79.5 124.7 98.6

79.3 125.4 98.6

79.0 125.0 98.2

(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,193 7,209 7,201 372 376 377 7,591 7,610 7,603 7,055 7,080 7,036 511 505 542 551 545 582 0 0 0 7,591 7,610 7,603

7,192 378 7,595 6,959 612 651 0 7,595

7,172 377 7,574 6,916 633 672 0 7,574

7,172 376 7,574 6,850 674 714 25 7,574

7,164 376 7,590 6,805 734 775 25 7,590

18,730 78 19,223 17,660 1,149 492 19,223

18,855 78 19,347 17,835 1,096 493 19,347

18,944 77 19,437 17,983 1,037 493 19,437

19,080 78 19,573 18,058 1,101 492 19,573

19,326 78 19,818 18,130 1,275 492 19,818

6,414 185 6,757 5,995 604 158 6,757

6,480 185 6,824 6,060 605 158 6,824

6,562 186 6,906 6,139 609 158 6,906

6,632 186 6,977 6,206 612 158 6,977

6,726 187 7,071 6,296 616 158 7,071

6,808 187 7,153 6,372 622 158 7,153

1,083 295 1,402 1,374 3 24 1,401

1,076 307 1,407 1,380 3 24 1,407

1,063 321 1,408 1,381 3 24 1,408

1,046 336 1,406 1,379 3 24 1,406

1,030 345 1,399 1,372 3 24 1,399

1,016 358 1,399 1,372 3 24 1,399

(Euro per 100 Kilograms) 222 230 227 136 137 138 113 114 116 350 344 340

221 136 117 334

211 135 119 330

208 138 121 336

208 140 122 336

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 351

Hungarian Meat Sup upply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

0.9 5.3

0.9 5.4

0.9 5.7

0.9 5.8

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

57 57 53 4 0 57

58 58 53 7 -2 58

59 59 55 6 -1 59

60 60 55 5 0 60

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

463 488 364 99 25 488

469 494 367 101 25 494

492 517 368 124 25 517

489 514 378 111 25 514

492 517 381 111 25 517

495 520 382 114 25 520

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

215 225 175 40 10 225

212 222 181 36 5 222

218 223 187 32 5 223

227 232 190 38 5 232

234 239 193 41 5 239

241 246 198 43 5 246

39,766 34,943 24,197

42,008 36,189 23,523

42,635 38,112 23,294

43,118 35,588 23,251

Farm Price Beef Pork Broiler

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1.0 6.2

1.0 6.1

1.0 6.3

1.1 6.4

1.1 6.4

(Thousand Metric Tons) 60 59 60 60 59 60 57 59 61 2 0 -2 0 0 0 60 59 60

59 59 63 -5 0 59

59 59 65 -7 0 59

59 59 67 -8 0 59

59 59 68 -9 0 59

503 528 381 121 25 528

501 526 385 116 25 526

503 528 388 115 25 528

506 531 390 116 25 531

511 536 394 117 25 536

251 256 202 49 5 256

256 261 206 50 5 261

263 268 210 53 5 268

269 274 215 54 5 274

280 285 220 60 5 285

(Forint per 100 Kilogram) 39,623 36,784 34,941 35,289 36,042 37,502 22,726 22,267 22,383

31,434 36,439 21,515

29,766 35,940 21,124

28,713 36,087 20,500

29,199 36,527 20,501

(Million Head) 0.9 1.0 6.1 6.2

352 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Indonesian Meat Su upply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.)

11.9 10.1 8.2

11.9 10.4 8.4

11.8 10.8 8.3

11.9 11.2 9.0

(Million Head) 12.1 12.4 11.4 11.7 8.6 9.9

12.7 12.0 9.7

13.1 12.3 11.2

13.5 12.6 11.0

13.9 12.8 12.7

14.3 13.1 12.7

Live Cattle Import

200

203

213

226

(Thousand Head) 254 292

334

379

426

470

515

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

335 335 355 -20 0 335

357 357 362 -5 0 357

355 355 380 -26 0 355

355 355 373 -18 0 355

(Thousand Metric Tons) 358 363 370 358 363 370 401 415 428 -43 -52 -58 0 0 0 358 363 370

377 377 436 -59 0 377

386 386 443 -57 0 386

395 395 452 -57 0 395

405 405 460 -55 0 405

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

759 759 760 -1 0 759

792 792 769 23 0 792

826 826 794 31 0 826

836 836 820 17 0 836

853 853 854 -1 0 853

876 876 873 3 0 876

900 900 892 8 0 900

914 914 915 -1 0 914

925 925 939 -14 0 925

942 942 962 -20 0 942

965 965 984 -19 0 965

Poultry Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

734 734 741 -7 0 734

792 792 777 15 0 792

820 820 848 -28 0 820

848 848 842 6 0 848

899 899 920 -21 0 899

935 935 952 -17 0 935

960 960 984 -24 0 960

979 979 1,012 -34 0 979

1,004 1,004 1,042 -38 0 1,004

1,034 1,034 1,087 -52 0 1,034

1,080 1,080 1,122 -41 0 1,080

Lamb and Mutton Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

66 66 67 -1 0 66

54 54 78 -24 0 54

63 63 73 -10 0 63

47 47 87 -40 0 47

63 63 77 -13 0 63

58 58 80 -21 0 58

65 65 83 -18 0 65

58 58 86 -28 0 58

63 63 91 -28 0 63

59 59 93 -34 0 59

65 65 97 -33 0 65

Retail Price Beef Pork Broiler Lamb and Mutton

26,786 15,225 10,567 17,591

28,772 16,394 10,956 15,145

29,050 17,128 10,918 18,528

28,785 15,989 10,720 14,607

(Rupiah per Kilogram) 28,583 28,556 28,179 16,404 17,237 17,962 10,967 11,242 11,403 19,956 20,603 21,022

27,488 17,904 11,368 20,795

27,043 17,807 11,306 20,503

27,026 18,117 11,268 21,062

27,686 18,636 11,509 21,350

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 353

Japanese Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

4.59 1.07 0.99 9.81

4.53 1.06 0.99 9.76

4.48 1.06 0.98 9.66

4.44 1.07 0.98 9.71

(Million Head) 4.41 4.39 1.07 1.07 0.97 0.97 9.56 9.56

Beef and Veal Production Wagyu Dairy Imports Total Supply Consumption Wagyu Dairy Imported Beef Ending Stocks Wagyu Dairy Imported Beef Total Use

534 232 302 1,000 1,680 1,518 232 302 984 162 5 10 147 1,680

526 227 299 981 1,669 1,510 227 299 984 158 5 10 143 1,669

519 224 295 990 1,667 1,509 224 295 990 158 5 10 143 1,667

Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use

1,270 880 2,240 2,145 95 2,240

1,231 894 2,219 2,123 97 2,219

Broiler Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,060 550 1,705 1,594 4 107 1,705

Producer Prices Wagyu Beef - Farm Dairy Beef - Farm Pork - Wholesale Broiler - Wholesale

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Wagyu Cows (Beg.) Dairy Cows (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

Retail Prices Wagyu Beef Dairy Beef Imported Beef Pork Broiler

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

4.37 1.06 0.96 9.72

4.35 1.03 0.96 9.72

4.33 1.00 0.95 9.60

4.29 0.97 0.95 9.57

4.25 0.94 0.94 9.64

515 222 293 1,011 1,684 1,525 222 293 1,011 159 5 10 144 1,684

(Thousand Metric Tons) 511 507 505 221 221 221 290 287 284 1,037 1,050 1,062 1,706 1,717 1,729 1,546 1,556 1,566 221 221 221 290 287 284 1,035 1,048 1,061 160 161 163 5 5 5 10 10 10 145 146 148 1,706 1,717 1,729

504 221 282 1,080 1,746 1,582 221 282 1,079 164 5 10 149 1,746

501 220 281 1,095 1,760 1,595 220 281 1,094 165 5 10 150 1,760

497 217 280 1,101 1,763 1,598 217 280 1,101 165 5 10 150 1,763

493 214 279 1,107 1,765 1,600 214 279 1,107 165 5 10 150 1,765

1,221 948 2,265 2,168 97 2,265

1,227 938 2,262 2,165 97 2,262

1,238 923 2,258 2,162 97 2,258

1,237 918 2,252 2,185 67 2,252

1,233 955 2,255 2,197 58 2,255

1,232 956 2,246 2,189 58 2,246

1,237 950 2,244 2,187 57 2,244

1,237 973 2,268 2,210 58 2,268

1,235 1,004 2,297 2,238 58 2,297

1,068 533 1,707 1,598 3 106 1,707

1,057 550 1,713 1,604 3 106 1,713

1,048 572 1,726 1,617 3 106 1,726

1,043 583 1,732 1,623 3 106 1,732

1,031 595 1,732 1,623 3 106 1,732

1,020 605 1,731 1,622 3 106 1,731

1,012 615 1,733 1,624 3 106 1,733

1,006 626 1,738 1,628 3 107 1,738

1,002 637 1,745 1,635 3 107 1,745

1,000 648 1,754 1,644 3 107 1,754

1,846 879 479 200

2,001 957 435 213

2,019 988 436 219

2,041 1,016 461 221

(Yen per Kilogram) 1,991 1,898 1,811 1,020 1,003 990 471 456 453 224 224 225

1,773 994 468 227

1,775 1,001 479 230

1,816 1,010 474 233

1,883 1,026 473 237

558 372 190 164 116

597 401 224 151 124

615 422 232 149 128

624 437 231 155 130

537 427 193 158 133

532 428 189 161 134

539 431 190 161 136

557 437 193 160 139

(Yen per 100 gram) 613 586 442 436 221 210 160 155 131 132

556 429 200 153 132

354 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Latvian Meat Supply ly and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

405 405

338 420

334 436

339 429

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

21 21 23 -2 0 21

22 22 23 0 0 22

24 24 23 0 0 24

25 25 23 2 0 25

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

33 33 42 -9 0 33

34 34 43 -8 0 34

36 36 43 -7 0 36

35 35 44 -9 0 35

34 34 44 -10 0 34

34 34 44 -10 0 34

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

7 7 20 -13 0 7

8 8 21 -13 0 8

8 8 21 -13 0 8

8 8 21 -13 0 8

9 9 22 -13 0 9

9 9 22 -13 0 9

0.75 1.13 1.09

0.80 1.16 1.07

0.78 1.21 1.05

0.78 1.12 1.04

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

319 422

315 420

326 416

338 416

337 416

(Thousand Metric Tons) 26 26 26 26 26 26 24 25 26 1 1 0 0 0 0 26 26 26

25 25 27 -2 0 25

25 25 28 -3 0 25

24 24 28 -4 0 24

25 25 28 -4 0 25

35 35 44 -10 0 35

34 34 45 -10 0 34

34 34 45 -11 0 34

34 34 45 -11 0 34

34 34 46 -12 0 34

9 9 22 -13 0 9

9 9 22 -13 0 9

9 9 22 -13 0 9

10 10 23 -13 0 10

10 10 23 -13 0 10

(Lats per Kilogram) 0.69 0.62 0.55 1.11 1.14 1.18 1.03 1.02 1.01

0.50 1.17 1.01

0.46 1.16 1.01

0.46 1.19 1.00

0.48 1.21 1.00

(Thousand Head) 334 324 421 420

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 355

Lithuanian Meat Su upply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

898 936

839 1,327

813 1,358

795 1,347

(Thousand Head) 777 758 750 1,341 1,354 1,379

755 1,387

770 1,388

792 1,404

792 1,422

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

80 80 82 -2 0 80

80 80 86 -6 0 80

81 81 87 -6 0 81

84 84 87 -3 0 84

(Thousand Metric Tons) 86 87 89 86 87 89 89 90 92 -3 -3 -4 0 0 0 86 87 89

90 90 94 -4 0 90

92 92 95 -3 0 92

95 95 95 0 0 95

99 99 96 3 0 99

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

100 100 104 -4 0 100

103 103 105 -2 0 103

105 105 105 0 0 105

105 105 107 -3 0 105

104 104 108 -4 0 104

105 105 108 -3 0 105

107 107 108 -1 0 107

108 108 109 -1 0 108

108 108 110 -2 0 108

109 109 110 -1 0 109

110 110 111 -1 0 110

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

26 26 32 -5 0 26

29 29 33 -4 0 29

30 30 35 -5 0 30

31 31 36 -4 0 31

33 33 37 -4 0 33

34 34 37 -4 0 34

35 35 38 -3 0 35

36 36 39 -3 0 36

38 38 40 -2 0 38

39 39 41 -1 0 39

41 41 42 -1 0 41

7.40 8.84 4.55

8.33 9.33 4.65

7.84 9.39 4.34

7.73 8.81 4.24

(Litai per Kilogram) 7.13 6.65 6.18 8.78 8.95 9.16 4.17 4.11 4.08

5.81 9.13 4.06

5.57 9.08 4.03

5.58 9.24 4.02

5.68 9.33 4.02

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2005

356 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Mexican Meat Supp ply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

23.7 10.7

22.4 10.6

21.3 11.1

20.5 11.6

(Million Head) 20.6 21.0 11.4 11.6

1,235 135

1,331 130

1,369 124

1,383 121

60

62

63

68

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,900 1,900 2,300 -400 0 1,900

1,899 1,899 2,277 -378 0 1,899

1,886 1,886 2,275 -389 0 1,886

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,010 1,010 1,105 -95 0 1,010

1,051 1,051 1,180 -129 0 1,051

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,891 1,891 2,050 -159 0 1,891

Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2,307 1,741 1,270

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Live Cattle Trade Export Import Live Hog Import

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

21.5 12.5

22.2 13.2

23.0 13.4

23.8 13.8

24.4 14.7

(Thousand Head) 1,362 1,345 1,324 118 116 114

1,308 112

1,303 111

1,314 109

1,332 108

76

80

85

87

89

1,786 1,786 2,333 -547 0 1,786

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,848 1,979 1,974 1,848 1,979 1,974 2,408 2,458 2,506 -560 -480 -533 0 0 0 1,848 1,979 1,974

2,039 2,039 2,580 -541 0 2,039

2,122 2,122 2,648 -525 0 2,122

2,200 2,200 2,681 -481 0 2,200

2,260 2,260 2,707 -448 0 2,260

1,050 1,050 1,300 -251 0 1,050

1,061 1,061 1,298 -238 0 1,061

1,098 1,098 1,305 -208 0 1,098

1,147 1,147 1,365 -218 0 1,147

1,181 1,181 1,446 -265 0 1,181

1,214 1,214 1,458 -245 0 1,214

1,263 1,263 1,472 -209 0 1,263

1,315 1,315 1,550 -235 0 1,315

1,352 1,352 1,638 -285 0 1,352

1,990 1,990 2,125 -135 0 1,990

2,093 2,093 2,201 -109 0 2,093

2,169 2,169 2,298 -128 0 2,169

2,235 2,235 2,374 -139 0 2,235

2,281 2,281 2,418 -138 0 2,281

2,340 2,340 2,456 -115 0 2,340

2,404 2,404 2,534 -130 0 2,404

2,471 2,471 2,619 -148 0 2,471

2,543 2,543 2,678 -135 0 2,543

2,619 2,619 2,736 -116 0 2,619

2,702 1,697 1,392

3,007 1,572 1,509

3,235 1,873 1,600

(New Peso per 100 Kilograms) 3,279 3,277 3,290 2,103 2,050 1,957 1,672 1,715 1,774

3,311 2,142 1,832

3,367 2,342 1,887

3,495 2,292 1,948

3,653 2,228 2,013

73

2005

75

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 357

New Zealand Meat Supply S and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cattle Inventories (Beg.)

9.1

9.8

10.3

10.8

(Million Head) 11.3 11.8

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

592 645 135 458 52 645

631 683 140 492 51 683

666 717 144 522 51 717

693 745 139 554 52 745

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

49 49 58 -9 0 49

48 48 57 -9 0 48

49 49 61 -11 0 49

49 49 59 -10 0 49

49 49 64 -15 0 49

51 51 65 -14 0 51

Poultry Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Total Use

99 99 95 4 99

96 96 96 1 96

97 97 102 -5 97

97 97 100 -3 97

100 100 107 -8 100

101 101 110 -8 101

259 316 158

294 332 161

297 343 158

Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

12.2

12.5

12.7

12.9

12.9

(Thousand Metric Tons) 711 725 734 763 778 787 147 150 153 563 574 579 53 54 55 763 778 787

738 793 156 582 56 793

741 797 157 583 56 797

746 803 156 590 56 803

749 806 156 594 56 806

53 53 65 -12 0 53

54 54 65 -11 0 54

55 55 66 -11 0 55

57 57 67 -10 0 57

60 60 68 -9 0 60

104 104 112 -8 104

106 106 114 -7 106

109 109 116 -7 109

112 112 118 -6 112

120 120 120 -1 120

(New Zealand Dollars per 100 Kilogram) 289 268 248 228 212 320 323 329 335 335 151 150 147 145 144

202 335 142

202 340 142

206 343 142

358 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Other Eastern Euro opean Meat Supply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

329 329 344 -15 0 329

335 335 347 -13 0 335

342 342 351 -9 0 342

348 348 355 -6 0 348

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

682 682 737 -55 0 682

685 685 744 -59 0 685

691 691 749 -58 0 691

697 697 755 -58 0 697

704 704 760 -56 0 704

712 712 764 -52 0 712

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

143 143 186 -43 0 143

146 146 188 -43 0 146

150 150 190 -40 0 150

154 154 193 -39 0 154

159 159 196 -37 0 159

163 163 198 -35 0 163

H Croatia, Macedonia, and Yugoslavia. Countries included: Albania, Bosnia Herzg,

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Thousand Metric Tons) 354 359 363 354 359 363 360 364 369 -6 -6 -6 0 0 0 354 359 363

367 367 373 -6 0 367

368 368 377 -9 0 368

368 368 381 -13 0 368

367 367 384 -17 0 367

721 721 768 -48 0 721

730 730 772 -43 0 730

737 737 777 -40 0 737

743 743 780 -38 0 743

748 748 784 -36 0 748

167 167 201 -33 0 167

172 172 203 -31 0 172

174 174 205 -31 0 174

175 175 208 -33 0 175

176 176 209 -34 0 176

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 359

Other Former Sovie et Union Meat Supply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

20.7 6.1

20.6 5.9

20.8 5.9

20.8 5.9

(Million Head) 21.0 21.1 6.0 6.0

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Total Use

1,329 1,329 1,449 -121 1,329

1,328 1,328 1,447 -119 1,328

1,367 1,367 1,462 -95 1,367

1,382 1,382 1,482 -100 1,382

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Total Use

474 474 473 0 474

473 473 479 -6 473

477 477 482 -6 477

486 486 490 -4 486

493 493 496 -3 493

501 501 501 0 501

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Total Use

168 168 290 -122 168

170 170 295 -125 170

179 179 298 -119 179

183 183 302 -119 183

191 191 307 -116 191

197 197 312 -115 197

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

21.2 6.0

21.3 6.1

21.5 6.1

21.6 6.2

21.7 6.2

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,418 1,440 1,473 1,418 1,440 1,473 1,506 1,530 1,556 -88 -90 -83 1,418 1,440 1,473

1,499 1,499 1,583 -84 1,499

1,529 1,529 1,612 -82 1,529

1,557 1,557 1,645 -89 1,557

1,587 1,587 1,684 -98 1,587

510 510 508 3 510

520 520 515 5 520

529 529 523 7 529

538 538 532 6 538

546 546 542 4 546

202 202 317 -114 202

209 209 322 -113 209

214 214 328 -114 214

218 218 336 -118 218

223 223 346 -122 223

Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaij aijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

360 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Philippine Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

5.5 10.8

5.5 11.7

5.4 12.0

5.4 12.0

Live Cattle Trade Import

230

200

203

207

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

235 309 310 -85 84 309

240 324 310 -69 83 324

237 320 321 -84 83 320

235 318 330 -96 83 318

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,008 1,017 1,025 -15 7 1,017

1,074 1,081 1,083 -9 7 1,081

1,129 1,136 1,129 0 7 1,136

1,118 1,125 1,154 -36 7 1,125

1,164 1,171 1,180 -16 7 1,171

1,189 1,196 1,213 -24 7 1,196

Poultry Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

520 522 543 -24 3 522

527 530 578 -51 3 530

545 548 608 -63 3 548

566 569 625 -59 3 569

594 597 649 -55 3 597

616 619 676 -60 3 619

40.54 55.83 50.59

48.42 65.21 54.12

51.44 74.43 56.60

52.37 68.96 58.07

Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Million Head) 5.4 5.5 12.6 12.5

5.7 12.5

5.9 12.4

6.1 12.6

6.3 12.8

6.5 12.7

(Thousand Head) 217 236

254

273

293

309

326

(Thousand Metric Tons) 232 234 238 315 318 322 354 375 396 -123 -141 -159 84 84 85 315 318 322

244 328 415 -172 85 328

252 337 430 -179 85 337

262 348 441 -178 85 348

274 359 449 -175 85 359

1,220 1,227 1,246 -26 7 1,227

1,236 1,243 1,288 -52 7 1,243

1,251 1,258 1,333 -82 7 1,258

1,277 1,284 1,375 -98 7 1,284

1,297 1,304 1,422 -125 7 1,304

640 643 703 -63 3 643

667 670 726 -60 3 670

694 697 753 -59 3 697

725 728 788 -64 3 728

757 760 823 -66 3 760

(Peso per Kilogram) 50.19 49.58 49.03 77.75 84.50 92.32 60.74 62.82 65.42

49.27 96.23 68.48

50.91 100.22 71.62

54.94 108.54 75.26

60.08 115.83 79.34

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 361

Polish Meat Supply y and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

6.1 18.2

6.0 16.0

5.8 14.8

5.7 14.4

(Million Head) 5.7 5.7 15.2 15.4

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

330 346 305 35 6 346

345 351 305 40 6 351

338 344 308 29 6 344

323 329 310 13 6 329

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,610 1,684 1,530 120 34 1,684

1,551 1,585 1,432 119 34 1,585

1,564 1,598 1,424 140 34 1,598

1,580 1,614 1,469 110 34 1,614

1,588 1,622 1,479 109 34 1,622

1,590 1,624 1,477 113 34 1,624

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

370 380 368 2 10 380

389 399 385 8 5 399

418 423 400 18 5 423

435 440 412 23 5 440

449 454 425 25 5 454

460 465 438 22 5 465

5,979 4,473 4,046

7,444 5,066 4,296

8,350 5,705 4,525

8,287 5,194 4,457

Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5.8 15.4

5.9 15.5

6.0 15.7

6.1 15.9

6.2 16.0

(Thousand Metric Tons) 314 310 300 320 316 306 319 328 340 -5 -19 -40 6 6 6 320 316 306

301 308 350 -48 6 308

306 312 358 -52 6 312

311 317 365 -54 6 317

319 325 369 -51 6 325

1,599 1,633 1,474 125 34 1,633

1,608 1,642 1,483 126 34 1,642

1,615 1,649 1,494 121 34 1,649

1,625 1,659 1,499 126 34 1,659

1,645 1,679 1,510 135 34 1,679

468 473 452 16 5 473

480 485 463 17 5 485

496 501 475 20 5 501

510 515 491 18 5 515

532 537 508 24 5 537

(Zloty per Ton) 7,431 6,547 5,547 5,117 5,145 5,127 4,344 4,175 3,971

4,844 4,973 3,846

4,428 4,863 3,758

4,204 4,887 3,656

4,307 4,960 3,656

362 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Romanian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

3.1 6.7

3.0 6.1

3.0 5.5

2.9 5.2

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

173 183 174 -1 10 183

170 180 174 -4 10 180

167 177 177 -10 10 177

164 174 178 -14 10 174

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

280 320 302 -12 30 320

278 308 308 -30 30 308

264 294 311 -42 25 294

252 277 322 -65 20 277

251 271 325 -69 15 271

255 270 325 -65 10 270

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

60 60 79 -19 0 60

57 57 83 -31 5 57

58 63 86 -29 5 63

59 64 88 -29 5 64

61 66 91 -30 5 66

63 68 94 -31 5 68

47,573 35,111 22,570

59,655 41,375 26,838

69,971 48,316 31,046

79,571 50,227 35,086

Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

3.0 5.6

3.1 5.8

3.1 6.2

3.2 6.6

3.2 7.0

(Thousand Metric Tons) 160 159 158 170 169 168 182 186 190 -21 -27 -33 10 10 10 170 169 168

157 167 194 -37 10 167

157 168 197 -40 10 168

158 169 201 -42 10 169

160 170 203 -44 10 170

264 274 325 -56 5 274

273 278 327 -49 0 278

285 285 330 -46 0 285

300 300 332 -33 0 300

316 316 336 -20 0 316

65 70 97 -32 5 70

67 72 99 -33 5 72

69 74 103 -34 5 74

71 76 107 -36 5 76

73 78 111 -37 5 78

(Million Head) 2.9 3.0 5.3 5.4

(Lei per Kilogram) 84,574 89,140 92,980 54,560 60,057 65,908 38,678 42,008 45,342

96,779 101,204 107,367 113,995 69,805 73,390 78,692 83,122 48,635 51,682 54,690 57,588

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 363

Russian Meat Supp ply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

27.0 16.1

25.8 15.9

25.6 15.5

25.2 15.3

(Million Head) 25.0 25.0 15.8 15.8

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,800 1,810 2,245 -445 10 1,810

1,700 1,710 2,237 -537 10 1,710

1,745 1,755 2,280 -534 10 1,755

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,480 1,480 1,779 -299 0 1,480

1,490 1,490 1,838 -348 0 1,490

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

380 380 1,275 -895 0 380

16,170 19,369 16,338

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

25.0 15.8

25.2 15.8

25.4 16.0

25.8 16.2

26.2 16.3

1,714 1,724 2,247 -533 10 1,724

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,681 1,663 1,652 1,691 1,673 1,662 2,272 2,300 2,330 -591 -637 -678 10 10 10 1,691 1,673 1,662

1,654 1,664 2,342 -688 10 1,664

1,656 1,666 2,343 -688 10 1,666

1,660 1,670 2,343 -683 10 1,670

1,667 1,677 2,336 -669 10 1,677

1,524 1,524 1,876 -352 0 1,524

1,527 1,527 1,909 -382 0 1,527

1,537 1,537 1,937 -400 0 1,537

1,556 1,556 1,950 -395 0 1,556

1,582 1,582 1,964 -381 0 1,582

1,604 1,604 1,993 -389 0 1,604

1,617 1,617 2,026 -408 0 1,617

1,628 1,628 2,060 -431 0 1,628

1,635 1,635 2,112 -477 0 1,635

410 410 1,336 -925 0 410

466 466 1,363 -897 0 466

494 494 1,355 -861 0 494

521 521 1,356 -835 0 521

546 546 1,369 -824 0 546

569 569 1,383 -813 0 569

594 594 1,384 -789 0 594

606 606 1,396 -790 0 606

603 603 1,439 -836 0 603

591 591 1,492 -901 0 591

22,977 23,697 19,961

30,085 29,827 25,267

34,285 29,433 28,392

(Ruble per Ton) 36,336 38,965 41,656 32,417 36,995 42,269 32,094 36,140 40,721

45,117 46,302 45,993

47,993 49,263 49,898

50,026 52,150 51,643

51,017 53,142 51,936

364 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Slovakian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

665 1,590

661 2,084

660 2,215

659 2,188

(Thousand Head) 659 659 660 2,179 2,178 2,200

662 2,195

664 2,178

666 2,189

666 2,204

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

52 52 53 0 0 53

54 54 54 0 0 54

56 56 55 1 0 56

60 60 56 4 0 60

(Thousand Metric Tons) 62 63 63 62 63 63 58 60 61 5 3 1 0 0 0 62 63 63

62 62 63 -1 0 62

61 61 64 -3 0 61

61 61 66 -5 0 61

61 61 67 -6 0 61

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

255 255 281 -26 0 255

267 267 281 -14 0 267

284 284 282 3 0 284

281 281 291 -10 0 281

280 280 294 -14 0 280

279 279 296 -16 0 279

282 282 296 -14 0 282

282 282 299 -17 0 282

280 280 302 -22 0 280

281 281 304 -23 0 281

283 283 307 -24 0 283

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

76 76 78 -2 0 76

80 80 79 1 0 80

86 86 81 5 0 86

92 92 82 10 0 92

99 99 84 15 0 99

100 100 87 13 0 100

101 101 89 12 0 101

102 102 91 11 0 102

104 104 93 11 0 104

106 106 95 11 0 106

109 109 97 12 0 109

71.56 42.38 19.53

80.99 47.29 20.78

87.09 53.37 22.51

91.74 50.44 24.02

(Koruny per Kilogram) 89.73 84.49 79.45 52.33 54.13 56.33 25.19 24.55 24.18

75.34 55.99 23.95

72.81 55.54 23.63

72.90 57.25 23.51

73.92 58.16 23.51

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2005

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 365

Slovenian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

471 580

481 583

480 616

479 614

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

45 45 42 3 0 45

44 44 43 1 0 44

44 44 44 1 0 44

45 45 45 1 0 45

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

63 63 80 -17 0 63

63 63 81 -18 0 63

67 67 82 -15 0 67

66 66 83 -17 0 66

67 67 84 -18 0 67

67 67 84 -17 0 67

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

59 59 59 0 0 59

57 57 60 -3 0 57

61 61 62 -1 0 61

63 63 63 0 0 63

65 65 64 1 0 65

66 66 65 1 0 66

622.16 397.14 271.37

584.31 378.26 238.56

580.92 389.21 232.87

586.87 370.28 233.52

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

480 627

481 627

482 619

484 621

484 625

(Thousand Metric Tons) 46 48 49 46 48 49 46 47 48 1 1 1 0 0 0 46 48 49

51 51 49 1 0 51

52 52 50 2 0 52

54 54 51 3 0 54

57 57 52 5 0 57

68 68 85 -17 0 68

68 68 85 -17 0 68

67 67 86 -19 0 67

67 67 86 -19 0 67

68 68 87 -19 0 68

67 67 66 1 0 67

68 68 67 1 0 68

69 69 69 0 0 69

70 70 71 -1 0 70

71 71 72 0 0 71

(Tolar per Kilogram) 571.32 561.44 553.10 374.12 387.43 403.65 234.92 237.41 241.77

546.49 408.51 246.01

533.24 404.86 243.19

533.46 412.14 242.56

537.90 416.19 242.65

(Thousand Head) 479 479 615 620

366 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

South Korean Meatt Supply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

2.49 7.00

2.10 7.20

1.82 7.63

1.63 7.59

(Million Head) 1.51 1.44 7.62 7.89

Beef Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

266 268 600 550 0 50 600

243 319 612 563 0 49 612

218 335 602 553 0 49 602

199 352 601 552 0 48 601

Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

983 140 1,154 1,015 30 109 1,154

980 91 1,181 1,054 37 90 1,181

992 124 1,207 1,085 41 80 1,207

1,017 129 1,226 1,105 51 70 1,226

1,060 122 1,252 1,130 62 60 1,252

1,106 125 1,290 1,169 72 50 1,290

Poultry Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

473 64 542 536 1 5 542

496 60 561 555 1 5 561

515 60 581 575 1 5 581

536 63 604 598 1 5 604

557 66 628 622 1 5 628

-51

-33

-35

-40

-44

2,623

2,955

1,918 1,186

17,185 4,169 2,818

Broiler Net Trade Farm Prices Beef

Pork Poultry Retail Prices Beef Pork Poultry

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1.42 8.37

1.43 8.82

1.46 9.09

1.50 9.38

1.55 9.76

(Thousand Metric Tons) 187 181 179 371 387 400 607 616 627 558 567 579 0 0 0 48 48 48 607 616 627

180 413 642 593 0 48 642

184 424 656 608 0 48 656

189 431 668 619 0 48 668

195 436 679 630 0 48 679

1,144 129 1,323 1,212 71 40 1,323

1,182 122 1,344 1,242 72 30 1,344

1,219 115 1,364 1,271 73 20 1,364

1,254 118 1,392 1,310 72 10 1,392

1,287 124 1,422 1,351 71 0 1,422

576 68 649 643 1 5 649

594 70 669 663 1 5 669

614 71 691 685 1 5 691

635 73 714 708 1 5 714

656 75 736 730 1 5 736

677 75 758 752 1 5 758

-48

-52

-56

-61

-65

-69

3,411

(1000 Won per 500 Kilogram, Liveweight) 3,841 4,121 4,338 4,513 4,714

4,933

5,185

5,447

1,722 1,223

1,899 1,288

2,097 1,358

(Won per Kilogram, Liveweight) 2,214 2,232 2,230 1,412 1,456 1,496

2,320 1,546

2,402 1,594

2,430 1,641

2,460 1,688

19,460 3,727 2,893

22,588 3,968 3,042

25,892 4,379 3,216

(Won per Kilogram) 28,419 30,314 31,767 4,670 4,745 4,735 3,353 3,458 3,548

33,220 4,886 3,656

34,773 5,052 3,765

36,539 5,119 3,869

38,433 5,170 3,973

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 367

Taiwanese Meat Su upply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

Hog Inventories (Beg.)

7.2

7.5

7.5

7.6

Beef and Veal Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use

5 95 100 100 0 100

5 97 102 102 0 102

5 100 105 105 0 105

5 102 107 107 0 107

Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

895 60 955 955 0 0 955

900 72 972 972 0 0 972

903 85 989 988 0 0 989

911 94 1,004 1,004 1 0 1,004

917 96 1,013 1,011 1 0 1,013

921 107 1,028 1,026 2 0 1,028

Broiler Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

615 14 629 628 1 0 629

631 16 647 646 1 0 647

649 15 664 663 1 0 664

666 14 680 679 1 0 680

679 15 694 693 1 0 694

692 15 707 706 1 0 707

282.34 161.57 135.28

293.22 163.63 136.34

301.18 164.68 136.60

Retail Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

8.1

8.4

8.4

8.5

8.7

(Thousand Metric Tons) 5 5 5 107 111 115 112 116 120 112 116 120 0 0 0 112 116 120

5 121 126 126 0 126

5 126 130 130 0 130

5 130 135 135 0 135

5 134 138 138 0 138

924 120 1,044 1,042 2 0 1,044

934 116 1,051 1,048 3 0 1,051

947 112 1,059 1,055 4 0 1,059

960 116 1,075 1,070 6 0 1,075

973 120 1,093 1,086 7 0 1,093

706 15 721 720 1 0 721

723 15 738 737 1 0 738

741 15 756 755 1 0 756

759 15 774 773 1 0 774

776 15 791 790 1 0 791

(New Taiwan Dollars per Kilogram) 310.32 306.76 303.06 299.58 297.87 166.93 170.54 169.06 167.34 172.02 137.87 139.75 139.99 140.38 141.81

298.42 176.35 143.14

302.63 177.42 144.19

308.30 177.91 145.43

(Million Head) 7.8 7.9

368 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Thai Meat Supply an nd Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

188 188 188 0 0 188

191 191 189 2 0 191

197 197 195 2 0 197

206 206 197 9 0 206

(Thousand Metric Tons) 215 224 233 215 224 233 207 220 233 7 4 0 0 0 0 215 224 233

243 243 245 -3 0 243

254 254 256 -2 0 254

267 267 264 3 0 267

284 284 271 13 0 284

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use

426 426 423 3 0 426

438 438 416 22 0 438

454 454 418 37 0 454

446 446 446 0 0 446

442 442 453 -11 0 442

450 450 454 -4 0 450

465 465 454 11 0 465

477 477 464 12 0 477

485 485 477 8 0 485

501 501 486 15 0 501

516 516 499 17 0 516

Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,070 1,110 780 270 60 1,110

1,134 1,194 821 312 60 1,194

1,141 1,201 867 274 60 1,201

1,140 1,200 899 241 60 1,200

1,135 1,195 930 204 60 1,195

1,155 1,215 959 196 60 1,215

1,191 1,251 986 206 60 1,251

1,239 1,299 1,008 231 60 1,299

1,290 1,350 1,035 255 60 1,350

1,352 1,412 1,070 283 60 1,412

1,422 1,482 1,104 318 60 1,482

Wholesale Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

81.01 45.39 33.84

102.73 66.21 37.01

102.86 69.18 35.32

100.99 61.49 33.36

(Baht per Kilogram) 93.29 88.36 83.77 60.36 62.83 65.86 31.80 31.53 31.66

80.37 66.25 32.03

78.88 66.57 32.36

80.51 69.37 32.94

83.32 71.34 33.70

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 369

Ukrainian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

10.63 10.07

10.00 10.00

9.63 9.73

10.07 9.66

(Million Head) 10.68 11.47 9.95 10.04

Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

650 700 593 79 28 700

656 684 578 79 27 684

630 657 572 58 28 657

664 692 570 94 28 692

Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

660 720 690 -8 38 720

685 723 688 12 23 723

693 716 694 0 23 716

683 706 716 -33 23 706

687 711 722 -35 24 711

693 717 719 -26 24 717

Poultry Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

190 281 289 -90 82 281

194 276 299 -105 82 276

202 284 325 -123 82 284

217 299 331 -115 82 299

231 313 340 -108 82 313

Broiler Net Trade

-81

-81

-114

-106

-100

4,454 5,133 5,463

6,627 6,620 6,814

7,639 7,695 7,481

8,870 7,826 8,392

Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)

Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

12.12 10.01

12.58 9.99

12.80 10.10

12.78 10.22

12.53 10.25

(Thousand Metric Tons) 687 721 745 714 749 773 581 597 616 106 124 129 28 28 28 714 749 773

757 785 633 124 28 785

760 788 647 113 28 788

756 785 660 97 28 785

742 770 670 72 28 770

702 725 716 -14 24 725

704 728 719 -15 24 728

707 731 725 -17 24 731

716 740 730 -14 24 740

723 747 739 -15 24 747

245 327 350 -105 82 327

258 340 360 -102 82 340

273 355 368 -95 82 355

288 370 376 -89 82 370

304 386 389 -86 82 386

321 403 403 -82 82 403

-97

-94

-88

-82

-79

-76

(Hryvnia per Kilogram) 9,277 9,549 9,739 8,502 9,361 10,281 9,131 9,715 10,309

9,962 10,792 10,905

10,316 11,256 11,449

10,959 12,075 12,003

11,691 12,733 12,548

370 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Per Capita Meat Con onsumption of Selected Countries 2000

2001

2002

2003

69.0 6.0 24.4

68.9 6.0 24.6

68.3 6.1 25.4

(Kilograms, Carcass Weight Basis) 67.9 67.7 68.9 69.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 25.8 26.2 26.8 27.3

99.4

99.6

99.7

100.1

100.4

102.1

36.0 18.3 29.5 13.5

35.7 17.8 29.2 14.6

36.2 18.3 30.1 14.0

36.0 18.5 30.0 15.3

37.0 19.1 30.7 14.0

Total

97.3

97.3

98.6

99.7

Brazil Beef Pork Broiler

34.0 10.8 28.9

34.7 11.0 29.8

34.8 11.1 30.2

Total

73.7

75.5

Bulgaria Beef Pork Broiler

12.8 32.4 14.1

Argentina Beef Pork Broiler Total Australia Beef Pork Broiler Lamb-Mutton

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

69.9 6.6 27.7

70.1 6.7 28.2

70.0 6.8 28.9

69.7 6.9 29.6

103.2

104.2

105.0

105.6

106.2

37.5 19.2 31.0 14.0

38.0 19.2 31.3 14.1

38.4 19.4 31.5 14.3

38.6 19.5 31.8 14.5

38.8 19.7 32.2 14.6

38.8 20.0 32.6 14.8

100.9

101.7

102.6

103.6

104.5

105.3

106.2

34.9 11.5 30.6

35.4 11.7 30.8

36.0 11.7 31.3

36.5 11.7 31.7

37.0 11.8 32.0

37.4 12.0 32.5

37.7 12.1 33.1

37.9 12.2 33.6

76.2

77.1

77.9

78.9

79.9

80.9

81.8

82.8

83.7

14.1 33.1 14.6

14.5 33.7 15.0

15.0 34.7 15.6

15.2 35.3 16.0

15.7 35.7 16.3

16.4 36.1 16.6

17.0 36.6 17.0

17.5 37.2 17.4

18.0 37.6 17.8

18.3 38.1 18.2

Total

59.4

61.8

63.1

65.3

66.4

67.8

69.0

70.5

72.1

73.3

74.6

Canada Beef Pork Broiler

31.3 31.9 29.1

30.8 32.4 29.5

30.3 34.2 29.3

31.0 32.9 30.2

31.7 32.4 30.8

31.9 33.0 30.8

32.0 34.0 30.8

32.6 33.4 31.2

33.1 33.0 31.7

33.0 33.7 31.9

32.9 34.5 32.0

Total

92.3

92.7

93.9

94.2

94.9

95.8

96.8

97.3

97.8

98.6

99.4

1.8 22.9 5.1 1.1

1.9 23.5 5.1 1.2

2.0 24.0 5.1 1.2

2.0 24.3 5.2 1.2

2.1 24.5 5.3 1.2

2.1 24.7 5.3 1.2

2.2 24.9 5.4 1.2

2.3 25.1 5.5 1.2

2.3 25.4 5.6 1.2

2.4 25.6 5.7 1.2

2.4 25.8 5.7 1.3

31.0

31.7

32.3

32.7

33.0

33.4

33.8

34.2

34.5

34.9

35.2

11.8 54.1 49.3

11.6 54.7 49.5

11.7 55.5 49.7

11.9 55.4 50.0

12.2 55.3 50.3

12.4 55.6 50.5

12.6 56.0 50.6

12.9 55.9 50.9

13.1 55.8 51.1

13.2 56.2 51.2

13.3 56.5 51.3

115.2

115.8

116.9

117.4

117.8

118.5

119.2

119.6

120.0

120.6

121.1

23.1 60.7 19.1

22.6 60.0 20.0

21.1 60.3 20.9

21.4 61.5 21.6

21.5 62.0 22.3

21.9 62.1 22.8

22.2 62.1 23.3

22.6 62.5 23.8

22.9 62.9 24.3

23.1 63.3 25.1

23.3 63.5 25.6

103.0

102.6

102.4

104.5

105.7

106.8

107.7

108.9

110.1

111.4

112.5

China - Mainland Beef Pork Poultry Lamb-Mutton Total China - Hong Kong Beef Pork Broiler Total Czech Republic Beef Pork Broiler Total

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 371

Per Capita Meat Con onsumption of Selected Countries (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

Estonia Beef Pork Broiler

14.7 32.0 13.5

15.9 32.5 14.1

16.6 32.8 14.6

Total

60.3

62.5

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Kilograms, Carcass Weight Basis) 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.1 33.6 33.9 34.1 34.3 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3

21.1 34.6 16.7

22.0 35.0 17.1

22.6 35.3 17.6

23.2 35.6 18.0

64.1

65.7

67.4

69.2

70.7

72.4

74.0

75.5

76.8

19.1 44.8 15.0 3.6

17.5 45.4 15.9 3.7

17.3 45.8 16.3 3.6

18.0 45.9 15.9 3.7

18.5 46.0 15.7 3.6

18.5 46.0 15.7 3.6

18.4 46.2 15.8 3.6

18.2 46.6 16.0 3.6

18.0 46.9 16.2 3.6

17.8 47.0 16.4 3.6

17.7 47.2 16.6 3.6

Total

82.6

82.5

83.1

83.5

83.8

83.9

84.0

84.4

84.7

84.9

85.0

Hungary Beef Pork Broiler

5.0 35.9 17.3

5.2 36.4 17.9

5.3 36.6 18.5

5.4 37.6 18.9

5.5 38.0 19.3

5.7 38.2 19.9

5.9 38.3 20.3

6.2 38.7 20.8

6.4 39.2 21.2

6.6 39.6 21.8

6.8 40.0 22.3

Total

58.1

59.5

60.4

61.9

62.8

63.8

64.5

65.7

66.8

68.0

69.2

1.6 3.4 3.3 0.3

1.6 3.4 3.4 0.3

1.6 3.4 3.7 0.3

1.6 3.5 3.6 0.4

1.7 3.6 3.8 0.3

1.7 3.6 3.9 0.3

1.7 3.6 4.0 0.3

1.7 3.7 4.1 0.3

1.8 3.7 4.1 0.4

1.8 3.8 4.2 0.4

1.8 3.8 4.3 0.4

8.6

8.7

9.0

9.0

9.4

9.6

9.7

9.8

9.9

10.1

10.3

12.0 1.8 2.4 7.8 16.9 12.6

11.9 1.8 2.4 7.8 16.7 12.6

11.9 1.8 2.3 7.8 17.1 12.6

12.0 1.7 2.3 7.9 17.0 12.7

12.1 1.7 2.3 8.1 17.0 12.7

12.2 1.7 2.2 8.2 17.1 12.7

12.3 1.7 2.2 8.3 17.2 12.7

12.4 1.7 2.2 8.5 17.2 12.7

12.5 1.7 2.2 8.6 17.2 12.8

12.5 1.7 2.2 8.6 17.4 12.8

12.6 1.7 2.2 8.7 17.6 12.9

European Union Beef Pork Broiler Lamb-Mutton

Indonesia Beef Pork Broiler Lamb Total Japan Beef - All Wagyu Dairy Import Pork Poultry

2004

2005

2006

Total

41.5

41.3

41.6

41.7

41.9

42.1

42.2

42.3

42.4

42.7

43.1

Latvia Beef Pork Broiler

9.4 17.6 8.3

9.5 17.9 8.6

9.8 18.1 8.9

10.0 18.8 9.1

10.4 19.0 9.2

10.9 19.2 9.4

11.4 19.3 9.5

11.8 19.5 9.6

12.2 19.8 9.8

12.5 20.0 10.0

12.6 20.4 10.3

Total

35.3

36.1

36.9

37.9

38.7

39.4

40.2

41.0

41.8

42.5

43.3

22.7 28.8 8.8

23.8 29.1 9.2

24.2 29.2 9.6

24.3 29.9 9.9

24.8 30.1 10.2

25.3 30.3 10.5

25.8 30.3 10.7

26.3 30.6 10.9

26.6 30.8 11.2

26.8 31.0 11.5

26.8 31.3 11.8

Total

60.3

62.0

63.0

64.1

65.1

66.0

66.9

67.8

68.6

69.2

69.9

Mexico Beef Pork Broiler

22.9 11.0 20.4

22.4 11.6 20.9

22.0 12.6 21.3

22.2 12.4 21.9

22.6 12.3 22.3

22.8 12.7 22.4

22.9 13.2 22.5

23.3 13.2 22.9

23.6 13.1 23.3

23.6 13.6 23.6

23.5 14.2 23.8

Total

54.4

54.8

55.9

56.5

57.2

57.9

58.6

59.3

60.1

60.8

61.6

Lithuania Beef Pork Broiler

372 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Per Capita Meat Con onsumption of Selected Countries (continued) 2007

2008

2009

2010

(Kilograms, Carcass Weight Basis) 35.2 36.9 37.2 37.6 15.0 16.1 16.0 15.9 25.3 26.9 27.2 27.5

37.8 15.9 27.6

37.8 15.9 27.8

37.2 16.0 28.2

36.9 16.2 28.5

78.3

75.5

79.9

80.4

81.0

81.3

81.5

81.5

81.5

14.2 30.4 7.7

14.3 30.4 7.7

14.4 30.6 7.8

14.5 30.6 7.9

14.6 30.7 8.0

14.8 30.8 8.0

14.9 30.9 8.1

15.0 30.9 8.2

15.1 31.0 8.3

15.2 31.1 8.3

52.1

52.3

52.4

52.7

53.0

53.3

53.6

53.9

54.2

54.4

54.6

16.5 5.4 3.3

16.3 5.4 3.3

16.4 5.4 3.3

16.4 5.4 3.4

16.6 5.5 3.4

16.7 5.5 3.4

16.8 5.5 3.4

16.9 5.5 3.4

17.0 5.5 3.5

17.2 5.6 3.5

17.4 5.6 3.6

25.1

25.0

25.1

25.2

25.4

25.5

25.7

25.9

26.0

26.3

26.6

3.8 12.6 6.7

3.7 13.1 7.0

3.8 13.4 7.2

3.8 13.4 7.3

4.0 13.4 7.4

4.2 13.5 7.6

4.3 13.7 7.7

4.5 13.9 7.8

4.5 14.1 8.0

4.6 14.3 8.2

4.6 14.5 8.4

Total

23.1

23.8

24.3

24.5

24.8

25.3

25.7

26.1

26.6

27.1

27.5

Poland Beef Pork Broiler

8.4 39.6 9.5

7.9 37.1 10.0

7.9 36.9 10.4

8.0 38.0 10.7

8.0 38.3 11.0

8.3 38.2 11.3

8.5 38.1 11.7

8.8 38.4 12.0

9.0 38.6 12.3

9.2 38.7 12.7

9.4 39.0 13.1

Total

57.5

54.9

55.1

56.7

57.3

57.8

58.3

59.1

60.0

60.7

61.6

Romania Beef Pork Broiler

8.5 13.5 3.5

7.8 13.8 3.7

7.8 13.9 3.9

7.9 14.5 4.0

8.0 14.6 4.1

8.2 14.7 4.2

8.4 14.7 4.4

8.6 14.8 4.5

8.8 15.0 4.7

9.0 15.1 4.9

9.1 15.3 5.1

New Zealand Beef Pork Broiler Total Other Eastern Europe Beef Pork Poultry Total Other FSU Beef Pork Poultry Total Philippines Beef Pork Broiler

2000

2001

2002

2003

35.3 15.2 25.0

36.1 14.8 24.7

36.7 15.5 26.1

75.6

75.6

14.2 30.3 7.7

2004

2005

2006

Total

25.5

25.2

25.6

26.4

26.7

27.1

27.4

27.9

28.4

28.9

29.5

Russia Beef Pork Broiler

15.4 12.2 8.7

15.4 12.6 9.2

15.7 12.9 9.4

15.6 13.2 9.4

15.8 13.4 9.4

16.0 13.6 9.5

16.3 13.7 9.6

16.4 13.9 9.7

16.4 14.2 9.8

16.4 14.4 10.1

16.4 14.8 10.5

Total

36.3

37.2

38.1

38.1

38.6

39.1

39.6

40.0

40.4

41.0

41.7

Slovakia Beef Pork Broiler

9.8 51.9 14.4

9.9 52.0 14.7

10.1 52.0 15.0

10.2 53.5 15.1

10.6 54.0 15.5

11.0 54.3 16.0

11.3 54.3 16.3

11.6 54.8 16.7

11.8 55.3 17.0

12.0 55.5 17.4

12.2 56.0 17.8

Total

76.1

76.5

77.1

78.9

80.1

81.2

82.0

83.0

84.0

84.9

85.9

Slovenia Beef Pork Broiler

21.8 41.6 30.4

22.3 42.1 30.9

22.7 42.2 31.9

23.0 43.1 32.4

23.6 43.4 33.0

24.2 43.5 33.7

24.7 43.5 34.2

25.2 43.8 34.7

25.8 44.2 35.5

26.2 44.4 36.2

26.6 44.6 36.9

Total

93.8

95.3

96.8

98.5

100.0

101.3

102.5

103.7

105.4

106.8

108.0

World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 373

Per Capita Meat Con onsumption of Selected Countries (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

2007

2008

2009

2010

11.6 21.4 11.3

11.7 22.0 11.6

11.4 22.5 11.9

(Kilograms, Carcass Weight Basis) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 22.7 23.0 23.6 24.3 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3

11.8 24.8 13.6

12.0 25.2 14.0

12.2 25.8 14.4

12.3 26.4 14.7

Total

44.3

45.3

45.8

46.3

47.0

48.1

49.2

50.2

51.2

52.3

53.5

Taiwan Beef Pork Broiler

4.5 43.0 28.3

4.6 43.4 28.9

4.7 43.8 29.4

4.7 44.2 29.9

4.9 44.2 30.3

5.0 44.5 30.6

5.2 44.8 31.0

5.4 44.8 31.5

5.5 44.8 32.1

5.7 45.1 32.6

5.8 45.5 33.1

Total

75.8

76.9

77.9

78.8

79.3

80.1

81.0

81.6

82.4

83.3

84.4

3.1 6.9 12.7

3.1 6.7 13.3

3.1 6.7 13.9

3.1 7.1 14.3

3.3 7.1 14.7

3.4 7.1 15.0

3.6 7.0 15.3

3.8 7.2 15.5

3.9 7.3 15.8

4.0 7.4 16.2

4.1 7.5 16.7

Total

22.7

23.1

23.7

24.5

25.1

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.6

28.3

Ukraine Beef Pork Broiler

12.1 14.0 5.9

11.9 14.1 6.1

11.8 14.3 6.7

11.9 14.9 6.9

12.2 15.1 7.1

12.6 15.2 7.4

13.1 15.2 7.6

13.5 15.3 7.8

13.9 15.5 8.1

14.2 15.7 8.4

14.5 16.0 8.7

Total

32.0

32.1

32.9

33.7

34.4

35.1

35.9

36.7

37.5

38.3

39.2

45.0 30.6 40.5

43.7 31.3 41.3

42.9 31.8 42.2

42.9 31.3 43.4

42.9 31.1 44.6

43.1 31.3 45.5

43.5 31.6 46.6

44.0 31.3 47.6

43.9 31.2 48.6

43.6 31.4 49.6

43.2 31.6 50.6

116.1

116.3

116.9

117.5

118.6

119.9

121.6

122.9

123.8

124.5

125.3

South Korea Beef Pork Poultry

Thailand Beef Pork Broiler

United States Beef Pork Broiler Total

2004

2005

2006

WORLD DAIRY PRODUCTS

376 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

World Dairy Products A reduction in U.S. exports coupled with strong import demand pushed up international prices for NFD and WMP by 44.5 and 22.4 percent respectively in 2000. Powder prices decline 4 to 5 percent in 2001, as powder supply increases in response to higher prices. From 2003 onward, powder prices rise an average of 1.7 percent annually. A strong increase in exports from Australia and the EU contributed to the 2.9 percent decline in international cheese prices in 2000. Likewise, a 21 percent increase in New Zealand butter exports played a role in the 7.7 percent decline in butter prices. Butter and cheese prices rise steadily after 2002, increasing, respectively, 2.2 and 3.1 percent annually. Despite a 0.7 percent decline in total cow inventories, milk production in modeled countries grows 9.7 percent from 2000 to 2010, implying a 1 percent annual increase in average productivity per cow. Production growth in North and South America accounts for 57 percent of the 38 mmt total increase. Fluid milk consumption rises 11 mmt, leaving more than 70 percent of the growth in milk production to be processed into manufactured dairy products. Strong domestic and export demand for NFD reduced EU stocks by 43 percent and raised domestic NFD prices by 8 percent in 2000. Despite the 15 percent reduction in butter and NFD intervention prices from 2005 to 2007, the NFD market in the EU remains tight throughout the baseline, keeping prices well above intervention levels. Strength in the dairy protein market supports EU prices for other dairy products. With butter stocks in excess of 300 tmt, EU butter prices come close to intervention in 2005, but domestic butter prices average 25 euros/100 kg above intervention from 2008-2010. Butter production increases 18.9 percent by 2010, with 86 percent of that growth occurring in India. Production of cheese and WMP grow similarly, rising 17.6 and 16.8 percent respectively. NFD production declines substantially in the United States, European Union, Canada, and Australia, offsetting growth in other countries. Total NFD output rises a meager 0.5 percent over the baseline. Australia, New Zealand, and the EU supply roughly 90 percent of butter exports in 2000. Moderate growth in EU and New Zealand exports keeps the share of the major three exporters above 90 percent throughout the baseline. Milk quotas constrain domestic cheese production, causing Hungary to become a net importer of up to 25 tmt by 2010. Russian cheese imports rise to 144 tmt by 2010. Cheese exports from Australia and New Zealand grow an average of 3 percent annually, allowing these countries to capture 75 percent of the total growth in trade. Following implementation of Berlin Accord reforms, EU unsubsidized cheese exports grow 35 tmt. Greater profitability in cheese markets prompt significant declines in Australian and Canadian NFD exports. Polish NFD exports increase 35 tmt over the projection period. U.S. NFD exports are limited to DEIP maximums despite elimination of market support in 2002. NFD production in Mexico increases 57 tmt over the baseline, keeping NFD imports stagnant at 105 tmt and reducing butter imports by 20 tmt. A 53 percent increase in domestic WMP production keeps Brazilian WMP imports to a modest 7 percent growth, while Brazilian NFD imports rise 64 percent. WMP net exports from both Argentina and New Zealand grow in excess of 60 tmt. Australian WMP exports grow a modest 1 percent annually, while EU exports stagnate.

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 377

FOB Northern European Dairy Product Prices Dollars per Metric Ton 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998 WMP

2000 Cheese

2002

2004

Butter

2006

2008

2010

NFD

Annual Growth in Milk Production and Total World Output Thousand Metric Tons 7,000

Million Metric Tons 440

6,000

430

5,000

420

4,000

410

3,000

400

2,000

390

1,000

380

0

370

-1,000

360

-2,000

350 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 N. America

S. America

Europe

India

Oceania

Total Production (mmt)

378 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Butter Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Canada Czech Republic European Union Hungary New Zealand Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Ukraine United States Total Net Exports Net Importers Brazil Bulgaria India Japan Mexico Romania Russia Switzerland Rest of World Total Net Imports FOB Price N. Europe

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

6 129 2 24 71 4 338 -9 2 1 10 -10

2 136 5 24 81 4 339 -8 2 1 14 -10

3 134 2 23 89 4 311 -7 2 1 13 -10

5 127 2 24 95 3 316 -7 2 1 12 -10

(Thousand Metric Tons) 5 6 6 125 123 120 2 2 2 23 23 23 97 101 107 3 2 1 319 322 325 -6 -6 -3 3 3 3 1 1 1 11 10 9 -10 -10 -10

7 119 -1 24 113 0 329 -1 4 1 9 -10

7 118 -1 25 117 -2 332 1 4 1 8 -10

8 117 -2 26 119 -3 336 3 3 1 7 -10

9 116 -8 28 125 -4 339 6 3 1 6 -10

567

590

566

571

573

577

585

592

599

605

611

12 1 3 0 25 -1 37 4 486

5 1 -8 0 24 -1 49 5 514

6 2 -6 0 20 -1 36 5 505

7 2 -6 0 18 -1 41 5 504

9 3 -8 0 16 -1 44 5 505

10 3 -9 0 14 -1 47 5 507

11 3 -10 0 13 0 50 5 513

12 4 -11 0 11 0 53 5 518

14 4 -13 0 9 0 58 6 521

14 4 -15 0 7 0 67 6 522

15 5 -18 0 5 1 79 6 519

567

590

566

571

573

577

585

592

599

605

611

1,325

1,422

1,579

1,603

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,639 1,670 1,689

1,718

1,758

1,808

1,869

2000

2001

2002

2003

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

22 184 -1 -2 256 4 241 2 -7 1 3 34 6

13 176 -4 -5 253 7 262 15 -11 0 5 34 16

11 191 -5 -8 250 5 249 16 -8 1 6 34 13

10 196 -5 -14 253 4 264 14 -4 2 6 34 12

(Thousand Metric Tons) 5 7 9 204 212 218 -5 -6 -7 -18 -19 -19 254 259 265 2 -3 -8 273 282 290 12 11 12 -1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 35 35 34 11 11 11

13 225 -9 -18 274 -12 300 13 4 6 6 33 12

18 233 -11 -15 281 -17 310 13 5 5 6 33 13

24 241 -13 -11 287 -21 320 14 6 5 6 32 14

31 248 -15 -6 294 -25 328 13 7 4 6 32 14

743

762

755

772

783

800

819

846

873

903

931

18 5 197 45 60 156 262

16 -2 199 47 63 156 282

10 -1 198 40 64 155 289

14 0 200 37 69 155 297

13 0 202 36 73 154 304

12 1 204 36 81 154 311

11 1 206 37 89 154 319

13 3 210 40 99 154 327

14 5 213 43 111 154 333

14 8 215 46 127 154 339

11 11 218 48 144 154 346

743

762

755

772

783

800

819

846

873

903

931

1,854

1,844

1,938

1,959

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 2,002 2,037 2,061

2,097

2,148

2,205

2,254

Cheese Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Bulgaria Czech Republic European Union Hungary New Zealand Poland Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Ukraine Total Net Exports Net Importers Brazil Canada Japan Mexico Russia United States Rest of World Total Net Imports FOB Price N. Europe

2004

2005

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 379

Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 650 450 250 50 -150 -350 -550 -750 1990

1992

1994

1996

Australia

1998 New Zealand

2000 EU

2002

2004

Rest of World

2006

2008

2010

2008

2010

Russia

Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 1990

1992

1994

1996

Australia

1998 EU

2000

2002

New Zealand

Hungary

2004 Japan

2006 Russia

380 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Nonfat Dry Milk Trad ade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Canada Czech Republic European Union Hungary India New Zealand Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Ukraine United States Total Net Exports Net Importers Brazil Bulgaria Japan Mexico Romania Russia Rest of World Total Net Imports FOB Price N. Europe

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

27 240 36 38 266 5 9 204 62 6 2 6 28 85

17 248 29 36 189 5 6 186 70 7 3 5 28 85

20 237 26 32 187 4 4 168 75 7 3 4 25 85

24 227 25 31 187 4 8 174 79 7 3 4 24 85

(Thousand Metric Tons) 25 26 27 221 216 211 26 24 19 32 32 33 187 188 188 4 3 2 11 14 16 179 182 187 80 81 86 8 8 9 3 3 3 4 4 4 23 21 21 76 76 76

28 207 15 34 188 2 18 191 91 9 3 4 21 76

29 203 11 35 188 1 20 195 95 9 3 4 20 76

30 200 8 37 188 1 22 199 100 9 3 4 20 76

31 196 4 40 189 0 24 204 105 9 3 4 19 76

1,014

914

877

882

878

878

882

886

890

897

905

41 3 53 105 -1 20 793

41 4 53 97 -1 20 699

51 4 53 100 -1 20 650

54 4 53 109 -1 19 645

56 4 53 108 -1 18 641

58 4 52 107 -2 15 642

59 4 50 107 -2 12 651

62 4 48 106 -2 7 659

64 4 47 106 -2 3 667

66 5 48 105 -2 1 674

67 5 49 105 -2 -1 681

1,014

914

877

882

878

878

882

886

890

897

905

1,878

1,908

1,942

1,977

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Thousand Metric Tons) 135 141 146 184 185 186 527 524 523 484 491 498

153 186 524 505

159 187 524 513

166 187 524 520

174 187 527 526

1,804

1,728

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,757 1,794 1,816 1,851

2000

2001

2002

2003

117 169 549 382

104 174 528 462

117 181 519 466

129 183 526 474

1,880

Whole Milk Powderr Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia European Union New Zealand Total Net Exports Net Importers Brazil Rest of World Total Net Imports FOB Price N. Europe

1,217 125 1,092 1,217 1,846

1,268 109 1,158 1,268 1,749

1,283 135 1,148 1,283 1,808

1,312 136 1,176 1,312

2004

1,329 137 1,192 1,329

2005

1,341 135 1,206 1,341

1,353 133 1,220 1,353

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,838 1,875 1,904 1,934

1,368 134 1,234 1,368 1,963

1,383 134 1,249 1,383 1,996

1,398 135 1,264 1,398 2,032

1,413 134 1,279 1,413 2,071

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 381

NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Australia

EU

2000 Poland

2002 U.S.

2004

2006

2008

2010

2006

2008

2010

Brazil

WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 1990

1992

1994

1996 Argentina

1998

2000

Australia

EU

2002

2004

New Zealand

Brazil

382 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

U.S. Dairy Supply an and Utilization

Milk Cow Numbers Milk Production per Cow Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Other Disappearance

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9,227

9,173

9,077

8,969

(Thousand Head) 8,888 8,826 8,769

8,716

8,666

8,620

8,578

8,723

(Kilograms) 8,890 9,053

9,215

9,378

9,541

9,704

9,868

(Thousand Metric Tons) 79,017 79,899 80,807 28,251 28,443 28,655 50,766 51,456 52,153

81,737 28,876 52,860

82,678 29,100 53,579

83,648 29,339 54,309

84,651 29,601 55,050

8,256

8,410

8,537

2005

76,182 27,491 48,691

77,140 27,605 49,536

77,483 27,830 49,653

78,238 28,018 50,220

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Shipments Total Use

596 16 624 604 5 14 1 624

601 16 631 611 5 14 1 631

569 16 599 580 5 13 1 599

570 16 599 580 5 13 1 599

573 16 603 584 5 13 1 603

578 16 607 588 5 14 1 607

582 16 612 593 5 14 1 612

587 16 617 597 5 14 1 617

591 16 622 602 5 14 1 622

596 16 627 606 5 14 1 627

600 16 631 611 5 15 1 631

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Shipments Total Use

3,774 194 4,250 3,870 38 318 24 4,251

3,865 194 4,377 3,989 39 325 24 4,377

3,953 194 4,473 4,074 39 335 24 4,473

4,043 194 4,572 4,171 39 337 24 4,572

4,113 194 4,644 4,235 40 345 24 4,644

4,190 194 4,730 4,311 40 354 24 4,730

4,269 194 4,817 4,390 40 363 24 4,817

4,349 194 4,907 4,470 40 372 24 4,907

4,431 194 4,997 4,552 40 381 24 4,997

4,514 194 5,089 4,635 40 390 24 5,089

4,600 194 5,184 4,721 40 398 24 5,184

670 5 788 369 91 2 1 325 788

631 5 961 406 91 2 1 461 961

543 5 1,009 467 91 2 1 448 1,009

536 5 989 463 91 2 1 432 989

526 5 964 462 82 2 1 417 964

524 5 947 460 82 2 1 402 947

522 5 930 458 82 2 1 386 930

520 5 912 456 82 2 1 371 912

518 5 895 454 82 2 1 356 895

517 5 878 452 82 2 1 340 878

515 5 861 450 82 2 1 325 861

272 219 2,603 2,555 2,260

277 215 2,681 2,530 2,261

260 216 2,916 2,543 1,803

273 231 3,054 2,676 1,888

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 277 280 283 235 239 242 3,109 3,088 3,071 2,706 2,729 2,758 1,918 1,955 1,996

286 246 3,057 2,788 2,033

288 250 3,042 2,814 2,066

291 254 3,034 2,845 2,097

294 259 3,039 2,884 2,131

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Shipments Feed, Waste Ending Stocks Total Use Prices All Milk Class III Butter Wholesale Cheese Wholesale Nonfat Dry Milk Wholesale

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 383

Argentine Dairy Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Milk Cow Numbers

2,450

2,450

2,451

2,458

(Thousand Head) 2,472 2,489 2,508

2,529

2,553

2,579

2,607

Milk Production per Cow

4,000

3,904

4,006

4,102

4,174

4,317

4,389

4,460

4,533

4,606

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

9,800 2,250 7,514

9,564 2,246 7,282

9,819 2,287 7,494

10,085 2,329 7,718

(Thousand Metric Tons) 10,318 10,567 10,828 2,370 2,412 2,455 7,910 8,115 8,332

11,099 2,498 8,560

11,387 2,542 8,803

11,692 2,585 9,064

12,009 2,628 9,337

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

52 0 58 49 6 3 58

48 0 51 46 2 3 51

50 0 53 46 3 3 53

53 0 56 47 5 3 56

54 0 57 48 5 3 57

55 0 58 49 6 3 58

56 0 59 50 6 3 59

58 0 61 51 7 3 61

60 0 63 52 7 3 63

61 0 64 53 8 3 64

63 0 66 54 9 3 66

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

432 2 465 416 24 25 465

420 4 449 410 17 21 449

426 4 451 419 15 17 451

432 4 453 429 14 10 453

443 4 457 438 9 10 457

455 4 469 448 11 10 469

468 4 482 459 13 10 482

482 4 496 470 17 10 496

497 4 511 480 22 10 511

514 4 528 490 28 10 528

532 4 546 501 35 10 546

47 0 55 22 27 6 55

40 0 46 23 17 6 46

43 0 49 23 20 6 49

48 0 54 24 24 6 54

49 0 55 24 25 6 55

50 0 56 25 26 6 56

52 0 58 25 27 6 58

53 0 59 26 28 6 59

55 0 61 26 29 6 61

57 0 63 27 30 6 63

59 0 65 27 31 6 65

204 1 225 92 118 15 225

199 1 215 95 105 14 215

214 1 229 97 118 13 229

228 1 242 100 130 12 242

236 1 249 102 136 11 249

245 1 257 105 142 10 257

253 1 264 107 147 10 264

262 1 273 110 154 10 273

272 1 283 112 160 10 283

281 1 292 115 167 10 292

291 1 302 118 175 10 302

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2005

(Kilograms) 4,246

384 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Australian Dairy Su upply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Milk Cow Numbers

2,238

2,288

2,298

2,289

(Thousand Head) 2,280 2,270 2,260

2,250

2,242

2,235

2,223

Milk Production per Cow

5,012

5,086

5,144

5,193

5,257

5,388

5,456

5,526

5,599

5,671

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

11,216 1,987 9,147

11,635 2,006 9,546

11,821 2,035 9,700

11,888 2,058 9,742

(Thousand Metric Tons) 11,984 12,079 12,176 2,075 2,091 2,107 9,818 9,896 9,976

12,278 2,122 10,060

12,390 2,136 10,155

12,513 2,150 10,263

12,608 2,164 10,341

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

189 10 220 61 139 20 220

197 11 228 62 147 19 228

194 11 224 62 145 16 224

190 11 217 63 138 15 217

188 11 214 64 136 15 214

186 11 212 65 134 14 212

185 11 210 65 131 13 210

184 11 208 66 130 12 208

184 11 207 67 129 12 207

183 11 206 67 128 11 206

183 11 205 68 127 10 205

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

367 38 452 210 222 20 452

390 38 448 212 214 22 448

411 38 470 219 229 23 470

424 38 485 227 234 24 485

437 38 499 232 242 25 499

449 38 512 237 250 25 512

461 38 524 242 256 26 524

474 38 537 248 263 26 537

486 38 551 252 271 27 551

499 38 564 257 279 27 564

511 38 576 263 286 28 576

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

265 0 274 30 240 4 274

276 0 280 29 248 3 280

267 0 271 30 237 4 271

257 0 261 31 227 3 261

252 0 255 32 221 2 255

247 0 249 32 216 1 249

243 0 244 33 211 0 244

239 0 240 33 207 0 240

236 0 236 33 203 0 236

234 0 234 34 200 0 234

231 0 231 34 196 0 231

Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

190 0 193 20 169 4 193

195 0 199 21 174 4 199

202 0 206 21 181 4 206

204 0 208 21 183 4 208

206 0 210 22 184 4 210

207 0 211 22 185 4 211

208 0 212 22 186 4 212

209 0 213 23 186 4 213

210 0 214 23 187 4 214

211 0 215 23 187 4 215

211 0 215 24 187 4 215

Milk Farm Prices Industrial Milk, Wholesale Fluid Milk Retail Milk

21 31 115

23 32 114

22 32 113

22 31 111

(Australian Cents per Liter) 22 22 22 31 31 31 111 111 111

22 31 111

22 32 112

22 32 113

23 33 114

2,234 3,739 2,967

2,411 3,816 2,919

2,554 3,830 2,736

2,528 3,705 2,745

2,563 3,739 2,775

2,613 3,784 2,813

2,678 3,826 2,857

Export Prices Butter Cheese NFD Powder

2005

(Kilograms) 5,322

(Australian Dollars per Metric Ton) 2,490 2,494 2,508 2,509 3,712 3,699 3,699 3,692 2,679 2,691 2,698 2,724

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 385

Brazilian Dairy Supp pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

16,040

16,045

16,062

16,097

Milk Production per Cow

1,380

1,421

1,461

1,502

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

22,134 12,754 9,330

22,800 12,931 9,718

23,467 13,227 10,089

24,185 13,536 10,498

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

72 12 84 84 0 0 84

73 5 78 78 0 0 78

72 6 78 78 0 0 78

73 7 80 80 0 0 80

74 9 83 83 0 0 83

76 10 86 86 0 0 86

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

445 18 463 463 0 0 463

455 16 471 471 0 0 471

471 10 481 481 0 0 481

483 14 496 496 0 0 496

498 13 511 511 0 0 511

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

62 41 109 106 0 3 109

62 41 107 107 0 0 107

60 51 111 111 0 0 111

60 54 114 114 0 0 114

Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

256 125 431 395 0 36 431

269 109 415 410 0 5 415

285 135 424 419 0 5 424

296 136 437 432 0 5 437

Milk Cow Numbers

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Thousand Head) 16,149 16,211 16,280

16,358

16,443

16,537

16,638

1,628

1,664

1,701

1,738

1,775

(Thousand Metric Tons) 24,936 25,708 26,498 13,838 14,114 14,390 10,947 11,443 11,955

27,223 14,662 12,408

27,971 14,930 12,887

28,743 15,198 13,390

29,533 15,456 13,921

78 11 89 89 0 0 89

79 12 91 91 0 0 91

80 14 94 94 0 0 94

82 14 96 96 0 0 96

84 15 98 98 0 0 98

515 12 527 527 0 0 527

533 11 544 544 0 0 544

548 13 561 561 0 0 561

564 14 578 578 0 0 578

581 15 596 595 1 0 596

601 18 619 612 7 0 619

61 56 117 117 0 0 117

62 58 120 120 0 0 120

64 59 124 124 0 0 124

65 62 127 127 0 0 127

66 64 130 130 0 0 130

68 66 133 133 0 0 133

69 67 137 137 0 0 137

308 137 450 445 0 5 450

322 135 462 457 0 5 462

337 133 475 470 0 5 475

349 134 488 483 0 5 488

363 134 502 497 0 5 502

376 135 516 511 0 5 516

391 134 530 525 0 5 530

1,544

2005

(Kilograms) 1,586

386 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Bulgaria Dairy Supp ply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

448

447

449

453

Milk Production per Cow

3,090

3,090

3,105

3,119

3,129

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

1,384 1,159 446

1,383 1,149 452

1,394 1,139 474

1,412 1,129 503

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2 1 2 3 0 0 3

2 1 3 3 0 0 3

1 2 3 3 0 0 3

2 2 4 4 0 0 4

2 2 4 4 0 0 4

2 3 4 4 0 0 5

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

56 2 58 57 1 0 58

56 5 62 61 1 0 62

59 6 65 64 1 0 65

63 6 69 68 1 0 69

66 6 72 71 1 0 72

1 3 4 4 0 0 4

1 4 4 4 0 0 4

1 4 4 4 0 0 4

1 4 5 5 0 0 5

1 4 5 5 0 0 5

Milk Cow Numbers

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

457

456

455

453

451

3,146

3,155

3,163

3,172

3,180

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,424 1,432 1,437 1,118 1,107 1,096 525 544 559

1,438 1,085 571

1,438 1,075 581

1,437 1,064 590

1,434 1,054 598

2 3 5 5 0 0 5

1 4 5 5 0 0 5

1 4 5 6 0 0 6

1 4 6 6 0 0 6

1 5 6 6 0 0 6

68 7 75 74 1 0 75

70 8 78 77 1 0 78

71 10 82 81 1 0 82

73 12 85 84 1 0 85

74 14 88 87 1 0 88

75 16 91 90 1 0 91

1 4 5 5 0 0 5

1 4 5 5 0 0 5

1 4 5 5 0 0 5

1 4 5 5 0 0 5

1 5 5 5 0 0 5

1 5 5 5 0 0 5

(Thousand Head) 455 456 (Kilograms) 3,138

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 387

Canadian Dairy Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Milk Cow Numbers

1,235

1,226

1,213

1,210

(Thousand Head) 1,203 1,193 1,184

1,176

1,169

1,163

1,157

Milk Production per Cow

6,551

6,685

6,762

6,842

6,957

7,167

7,259

7,350

7,443

7,538

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

8,090 2,850 4,786

8,196 2,851 4,894

8,203 2,880 4,878

8,279 2,910 4,924

(Thousand Metric Tons) 8,372 8,434 8,486 2,942 2,974 3,006 4,987 5,021 5,044

8,536 3,039 5,064

8,595 3,073 5,091

8,660 3,107 5,125

8,724 3,141 5,157

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

88 7 108 82 9 17 108

88 4 109 84 9 17 109

87 2 106 83 4 18 106

87 2 108 84 4 19 108

89 2 110 84 4 21 110

88 2 111 85 4 22 111

86 2 110 86 4 20 110

84 2 106 87 1 18 106

83 2 103 88 1 14 103

82 2 98 89 0 10 99

81 8 99 91 0 9 99

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

329 30 401 331 25 45 401

337 25 407 335 27 46 407

340 25 411 339 26 46 411

344 25 415 344 25 46 415

349 25 420 349 25 46 420

354 25 425 355 24 47 425

359 25 431 361 24 46 431

363 25 434 367 22 45 434

368 25 438 374 20 44 438

373 25 441 382 17 43 441

377 25 445 389 14 42 445

67 0 78 36 36 6 78

67 1 74 38 30 6 74

63 1 70 38 27 5 70

63 1 69 38 26 5 69

65 1 70 39 27 5 70

62 1 69 39 25 5 69

58 1 64 39 20 4 64

54 1 59 40 16 4 59

51 1 56 40 12 4 56

48 1 53 41 9 3 53

45 1 49 41 5 3 49

56.35 63.10

56.95 63.65

57.80 64.43

58.60 65.16

(Canadian Dollar per Hectoliter) 59.40 60.20 61.05 65.89 66.62 67.40

61.94 68.21

62.84 69.04

63.76 69.88

64.69 70.72

5.54 4.61

5.61 4.70

5.68 4.84

5.76 4.92

(Canadian Dollars per Kilogram) 5.85 5.90 5.95 4.97 5.04 5.08

6.00 5.16

6.06 5.23

6.13 5.31

6.19 5.39

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use Prices Industrial Milk, Target Fluid Milk

Butter Support NFD Support

2005

(Kilograms) 7,067

388 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Czech Republic Daiiry Supply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

660

662

655

646

Milk Production per Cow

4,226

4,277

4,326

4,382

4,437

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

2,790 941 1,655

2,832 956 1,681

2,832 967 1,668

2,829 976 1,659

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

65 1 66 41 25 0 66

65 1 66 41 25 0 66

64 1 65 41 24 0 65

65 1 66 41 25 0 66

65 1 66 41 24 0 66

65 1 65 42 24 0 65

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

115 13 139 118 11 11 139

116 5 132 121 0 11 132

115 8 134 123 0 11 134

111 14 137 126 0 11 137

110 18 138 127 0 11 138

60 0 60 23 38 0 60

61 0 62 25 36 0 62

59 0 59 27 32 0 59

61 0 61 28 31 2 61

61 0 63 29 32 2 63

Milk Cow Numbers

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

630

632

637

645

655

4,559

4,621

4,684

4,746

4,811

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,834 2,842 2,873 984 989 995 1,656 1,661 1,687

2,921 1,000 1,731

2,985 1,005 1,789

3,063 1,011 1,861

3,153 1,014 1,945

65 1 66 42 24 0 66

66 1 67 43 25 0 67

68 1 69 43 26 0 69

69 1 70 43 27 0 70

72 1 72 43 29 0 72

109 19 140 129 0 11 140

111 19 141 130 0 11 141

113 18 142 131 0 11 142

118 15 143 132 0 11 143

123 11 145 134 0 11 145

129 6 146 135 0 11 146

61 0 63 29 32 2 63

62 0 64 29 33 2 64

63 0 65 30 34 2 65

65 0 67 30 35 2 67

68 0 70 30 37 2 70

71 0 73 31 40 2 73

(Thousand Head) 639 632 (Kilograms) 4,498

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 389

European Union Da airy Supply and Utilization

Milk Cow Numbers Milk Production per Cow Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

2000

2001

2002

2003

21,152

20,934

20,692

20,453

5,667

5,746

5,815

5,882

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Thousand Head) 20,220 20,054 19,892

19,728

19,501

19,282

19,068

6,148

6,216

6,285

6,356

(Kilograms) 5,947 6,014

6,080

(Thousand Metric Tons) 119,878 120,278 120,325 120,310 120,242 120,614 120,953 121,295 121,210 121,180 121,191 32,124 32,108 32,086 32,037 31,972 31,958 31,951 31,922 31,804 31,652 31,518 87,829 88,348 88,468 88,551 88,594 89,015 89,395 89,803 89,884 90,056 90,251

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,705 81 2,094 1,632 152 310 2,094

1,719 80 2,108 1,629 161 318 2,108

1,721 79 2,118 1,623 168 327 2,118

1,718 78 2,123 1,617 173 333 2,123

1,716 78 2,127 1,612 174 340 2,127

1,714 77 2,131 1,610 178 343 2,131

1,712 75 2,130 1,611 182 337 2,130

1,709 74 2,120 1,608 187 325 2,120

1,701 74 2,099 1,597 190 311 2,099

1,697 74 2,082 1,582 193 307 2,082

1,695 73 2,075 1,570 198 308 2,075

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

5,962 153 7,470 5,825 409 1,236 7,470

6,128 150 7,514 5,875 403 1,236 7,514

6,188 151 7,574 5,933 400 1,242 7,574

6,245 156 7,643 5,987 409 1,247 7,643

6,298 157 7,701 6,041 411 1,250 7,701

6,370 156 7,776 6,102 415 1,259 7,776

6,440 154 7,854 6,165 419 1,269 7,854

6,509 152 7,930 6,226 426 1,279 7,930

6,553 152 7,983 6,272 432 1,279 7,983

6,597 151 8,027 6,314 438 1,276 8,027

6,651 151 8,077 6,358 444 1,275 8,077

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,079 83 1,475 949 349 177 1,475

1,083 84 1,344 921 273 150 1,344

1,081 86 1,317 904 273 140 1,317

1,068 86 1,293 890 273 129 1,293

1,057 86 1,272 875 273 124 1,272

1,044 85 1,253 861 273 118 1,253

1,030 85 1,234 845 273 116 1,234

1,016 85 1,217 831 273 113 1,217

995 85 1,193 817 273 103 1,193

984 85 1,172 803 273 96 1,172

975 84 1,156 790 273 92 1,156

Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

1,072 6 1,120 524 555 41 1,120

1,056 6 1,103 529 534 41 1,103

1,048 6 1,095 529 525 41 1,095

1,054 6 1,101 528 532 41 1,101

1,053 6 1,100 526 533 41 1,100

1,051 6 1,098 527 530 41 1,098

1,050 6 1,097 527 529 41 1,097

1,050 6 1,097 527 530 41 1,097

1,048 6 1,095 524 530 41 1,095

1,046 6 1,093 522 530 41 1,093

1,046 6 1,093 519 533 41 1,093

Prices Milk Target Milk Producer

30.98 28.80

30.98 28.63

30.98 28.31

30.98 28.10

(Euro per 100 Kilograms) 30.98 30.11 28.35 27.90 27.32 26.63

26.60 26.02

25.72 25.95

25.72 26.10

25.72 26.10

357 469 223 277 328 206

352 472 223 263 328 206

346 468 223 258 328 206

342 464 222 258 328 206

304 436 212 239 287 180

303 435 212 238 279 175

305 438 213 239 279 175

304 438 213 239 279 175

Butter Domestic Cheese Domestic SMP Domestic WMP Domestic Butter Intervention SMP Intervention

337 462 222 256 328 206

327 454 219 251 320 200

314 445 215 244 304 190

390 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Hungarian Dairy Su upply and Utilization

Milk Cow Numbers Milk Production per Cow Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

2000

2001

2002

2003

375

381

379

376

5,575

5,634

5,691

2004

2005

(Thousand Head) 374 366

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

358

352

344

339

335

5,752

(Kilograms) 5,813 5,872

5,932

5,991

6,050

6,109

6,168

(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,171 2,147 2,125 904 907 909 1,104 1,078 1,056

2,111 912 1,042

2,084 914 1,015

2,070 916 1,002

2,064 918 995

2,088 890 1,035

2,147 896 1,089

2,156 899 1,093

2,162 902 1,097

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

16 0 16 12 4 0 16

17 0 17 13 4 0 17

17 0 17 13 4 0 17

17 0 17 14 3 0 17

17 0 17 14 3 0 17

17 0 17 15 2 0 17

16 0 16 16 1 0 16

16 0 16 16 0 0 16

15 2 17 17 0 0 17

15 3 18 18 0 0 18

15 4 19 19 0 0 19

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

89 7 96 85 11 0 96

94 7 101 87 14 0 101

94 7 102 89 13 0 102

95 7 102 91 11 0 102

95 7 102 93 9 0 102

92 7 99 95 4 0 99

89 8 97 97 0 0 97

87 12 99 99 0 0 99

84 17 101 101 0 0 101

82 21 104 104 0 0 104

81 25 106 106 0 0 106

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

14 1 15 9 6 0 15

15 1 16 10 6 0 16

15 1 16 11 5 0 16

15 1 16 11 5 0 16

15 1 16 11 5 0 16

15 1 16 12 4 0 16

14 1 15 12 3 0 15

14 1 15 12 3 0 15

14 1 15 13 2 0 15

14 1 15 13 2 0 15

14 1 15 13 1 0 15

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 391

Indian Dairy Supply y and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

35,750

35,885

35,951

35,992

Milk Production per Cow

1,014

1,016

1,020

1,025

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

36,250 33,000 46,000

36,472 33,135 47,583

36,659 33,699 48,187

36,875 34,254 48,799

1,950 5 1,955 1,953 2 0 1,955

2,256 2 2,258 2,248 10 0 2,258

2,385 1 2,386 2,379 7 0 2,386

2,456 1 2,457 2,450 7 0 2,457

2,525 1 2,526 2,517 9 0 2,526

2,589 1 2,590 2,580 10 0 2,590

150 3 195 150 12 33 195

165 2 200 165 8 27 200

175 2 204 171 6 27 204

184 2 213 176 10 27 213

192 2 221 181 13 27 221

200 2 229 186 16 27 229

Milk Cow Numbers

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Thousand Head) 36,023 36,045 36,056

36,059

36,056

36,052

36,047

1,039

1,044

1,049

1,054

1,059

(Thousand Metric Tons) 37,081 37,275 37,459 34,810 35,378 35,947 49,373 49,894 50,375

37,634 36,525 50,810

37,806 37,102 51,215

37,983 37,677 51,598

38,157 38,252 51,952

2,647 1 2,648 2,637 11 0 2,648

2,705 1 2,706 2,694 12 0 2,706

2,766 1 2,767 2,753 14 0 2,767

2,829 1 2,830 2,813 16 0 2,830

2,893 1 2,894 2,875 19 0 2,894

208 2 237 192 18 27 237

216 2 245 198 20 27 245

224 2 253 204 22 27 253

232 2 261 210 24 27 261

241 2 270 217 26 27 270

1,029

2005

(Kilograms) 1,034

392 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Japanese Dairy Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

992

990

984

980

Milk Production per Cow

8,569

8,599

8,683

8,769

8,855

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

8,500 4,950 3,450

8,514 4,959 3,456

8,547 4,980 3,468

8,591 4,999 3,493

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

92 0 121 80 0 41 121

91 0 132 82 0 49 132

91 0 141 83 0 58 141

92 0 149 84 0 65 149

92 0 157 85 0 72 157

93 0 165 85 0 80 165

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

36 197 248 233 0 15 248

38 199 252 237 0 15 252

41 198 254 239 0 15 254

41 200 256 241 0 15 256

40 202 257 242 0 15 257

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

197 53 284 247 0 37 284

195 53 286 249 0 37 286

197 53 287 250 0 37 287

200 53 289 252 0 37 289

201 53 291 254 0 37 291

Prices Milk Farm Price Butter Wholesale NFD Wholesale Cheese Retail

82 964 546 1,820

81 974 559 1,831

81 990 577 1,840

81 998 582 1,840

Milk Cow Numbers

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

964

959

952

945

938

9,030

9,118

9,204

9,290

9,365

(Thousand Metric Tons) 8,627 8,662 8,702 5,017 5,029 5,039 3,512 3,536 3,566

8,741 5,050 3,594

8,766 5,061 3,609

8,781 5,073 3,613

8,780 5,084 3,602

93 0 173 86 0 87 173

94 0 181 87 0 94 181

95 0 189 88 0 100 189

95 0 195 90 0 105 195

95 0 200 91 0 109 200

39 204 259 244 0 15 259

38 206 260 245 0 15 260

36 210 261 246 0 15 261

35 213 263 248 0 15 263

33 215 264 249 0 15 264

32 218 265 250 0 15 265

204 52 293 256 0 37 293

207 50 294 257 0 37 294

210 48 296 259 0 37 296

213 47 297 260 0 37 297

214 48 298 261 0 37 298

213 49 300 263 0 37 300

(Yen per Kilogram) 81 82 82 1,007 1,022 1,029 589 589 597 1,839 1,830 1,817

82 1,029 622 1,805

83 1,024 642 1,794

83 1,019 656 1,788

82 1,010 670 1,794

(Thousand Head) 974 969 (Kilograms) 8,943

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 393

Mexican Dairy Supp ply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Milk Cow Numbers

1,900

1,950

2,001

2,043

(Thousand Head) 2,087 2,131 2,174

2,219

2,263

2,308

2,354

Milk Production per Cow

4,842

4,870

4,912

4,946

4,985

5,062

5,102

5,141

5,181

5,221

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

9,200 3,860 5,490

9,497 4,026 5,621

9,827 4,089 5,888

10,107 4,159 6,099

(Thousand Metric Tons) 10,401 10,700 11,008 4,230 4,305 4,384 6,321 6,545 6,774

11,320 4,464 7,005

11,634 4,545 7,238

11,956 4,626 7,480

12,291 4,709 7,731

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

18 25 43 43 0 0 43

20 24 45 45 0 0 45

25 20 45 45 0 0 45

28 18 46 46 0 0 46

31 16 47 47 0 0 47

34 14 48 48 0 0 48

37 13 50 50 0 0 50

40 11 51 51 0 0 51

43 9 52 52 0 0 52

47 7 53 53 0 0 53

50 5 55 55 0 0 55

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

135 45 180 180 0 0 180

137 47 184 184 0 0 184

148 40 188 188 0 0 188

156 37 193 193 0 0 193

162 36 198 198 0 0 198

167 36 203 203 0 0 203

171 37 209 209 0 0 209

175 40 214 214 0 0 214

178 43 220 220 0 0 220

181 46 226 226 0 0 226

184 48 232 232 0 0 232

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

140 105 294 250 0 44 294

144 97 285 256 0 29 285

152 100 282 262 0 20 282

157 109 286 266 0 20 286

163 108 291 271 0 20 291

168 107 296 276 0 20 296

174 107 300 280 0 20 300

179 106 306 286 0 20 306

185 106 311 291 0 20 311

191 105 316 296 0 20 316

197 105 321 301 0 20 321

(Kilograms) 5,022

394 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

New Zealand Dairy Supply S and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Milk Cow Numbers

3,300

3,341

3,401

3,436

(Thousand Head) 3,465 3,483 3,502

3,523

3,543

3,566

3,581

Milk Production per Cow

3,889

3,957

3,849

3,886

3,925

4,001

4,038

4,076

4,114

4,153

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

12,835 400 11,931

13,219 410 12,298

13,094 415 12,159

13,352 416 12,412

(Thousand Metric Tons) 13,599 13,804 14,012 420 423 426 12,651 12,850 13,053

14,226 428 13,260

14,444 431 13,472

14,672 434 13,694

14,871 437 13,888

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

347 0 440 27 338 75 440

344 0 419 27 339 53 419

338 0 391 27 311 53 391

343 0 396 27 316 53 396

347 0 400 28 319 53 400

350 0 403 28 322 53 403

354 0 407 28 325 53 407

357 0 410 28 329 53 410

361 0 414 29 332 53 414

364 0 417 29 336 53 417

368 0 421 29 339 53 421

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

270 0 283 30 241 12 283

289 0 301 27 262 12 301

279 0 291 30 249 12 291

295 0 307 31 264 12 307

304 0 316 31 273 12 316

314 0 326 32 282 12 326

323 0 335 33 290 12 335

333 0 345 34 300 12 345

344 0 356 34 310 12 356

355 0 367 35 320 12 367

364 0 376 35 328 12 376

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

210 0 264 11 204 49 264

191 0 240 11 186 43 240

180 0 223 12 168 43 223

186 0 229 12 174 43 229

191 0 234 12 179 43 234

194 0 237 12 182 43 237

199 0 242 12 187 43 242

203 0 246 12 191 43 246

207 0 250 12 195 43 250

212 0 255 12 199 43 255

216 0 259 12 204 43 259

Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

420 0 460 34 382 44 460

497 0 541 35 462 45 541

502 0 547 35 466 45 547

511 0 556 36 474 46 556

520 0 566 36 484 46 566

528 0 574 37 491 47 574

535 0 582 37 498 47 582

543 0 590 37 505 47 590

551 0 598 38 513 48 598

559 0 606 38 520 48 606

565 0 613 39 526 48 613

(Kilograms) 3,963

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 395

Polish Dairy Supply y and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Milk Cow Numbers

3,296

3,205

3,192

3,194

(Thousand Head) 3,181 3,159 3,189

3,198

3,205

3,213

3,228

Milk Production per Cow

3,580

3,738

3,765

3,817

3,877

4,034

4,122

4,211

4,294

4,364

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

11,800 5,050 6,080

11,979 4,987 6,363

12,016 4,958 6,441

12,191 5,002 6,575

(Thousand Metric Tons) 12,334 12,484 12,866 5,043 5,083 5,132 6,675 6,787 7,124

13,183 5,166 7,401

13,495 5,187 7,691

13,796 5,214 7,964

14,088 5,230 8,239

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

162 12 178 171 3 4 178

163 8 175 171 0 4 175

163 7 174 170 0 4 174

164 7 175 171 0 4 175

165 6 175 172 0 4 175

167 6 176 172 0 4 176

170 3 177 173 0 4 177

173 1 178 174 0 4 178

175 1 181 175 2 4 181

178 1 183 175 5 4 183

181 1 186 175 7 4 186

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

145 5 156 145 7 4 156

157 2 163 141 17 4 163

159 2 165 143 18 4 165

160 2 166 145 16 5 166

160 2 167 148 14 5 167

162 2 169 150 13 5 169

165 2 173 153 14 6 173

168 2 176 155 15 6 176

171 2 179 157 15 7 179

174 2 182 160 16 7 182

176 2 185 162 15 7 185

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

100 8 128 30 70 28 128

107 8 143 29 78 36 143

107 8 151 30 83 38 151

110 8 155 31 87 37 155

112 8 157 32 88 37 157

114 8 159 33 89 38 159

120 8 166 34 94 38 166

125 8 171 34 99 38 171

130 8 176 35 103 38 176

135 8 181 36 108 38 181

141 8 187 36 113 38 187

(Kilograms) 3,952

396 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Romanian Dairy Su upply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Milk Cow Numbers

1,592

1,588

1,583

1,581

(Thousand Head) 1,580 1,574 1,565

1,554

1,543

1,534

1,528

Milk Production per Cow

2,698

2,711

2,729

2,749

2,768

2,807

2,826

2,846

2,866

2,885

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

4,294 3,788 296

4,303 3,791 304

4,320 3,785 329

4,347 3,776 364

(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,372 4,387 4,393 3,767 3,756 3,745 400 428 447

4,392 3,735 461

4,392 3,725 475

4,397 3,715 493

4,409 3,705 517

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

8 0 8 7 1 0 8

8 0 8 8 1 0 8

9 0 9 8 1 0 9

9 0 9 8 1 0 9

9 0 9 9 1 0 9

10 0 10 9 1 0 10

10 0 10 10 0 0 10

10 0 10 10 0 0 10

10 0 10 10 0 0 10

10 0 11 11 0 0 11

11 1 11 11 0 0 11

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

42 8 50 49 1 0 50

44 12 55 54 1 0 55

47 9 56 55 1 0 56

52 5 58 57 1 0 58

58 2 59 58 1 0 59

62 1 63 60 3 0 63

64 1 65 61 4 0 65

66 1 67 62 5 0 67

68 1 69 64 6 0 69

71 1 72 65 7 0 72

74 1 75 67 8 0 75

5 0 5 4 1 0 5

5 0 5 4 1 0 5

5 0 5 5 1 0 5

6 0 6 5 1 0 6

7 0 7 5 1 0 7

7 0 7 6 2 0 7

8 0 8 6 2 0 8

8 0 8 6 2 0 8

8 0 8 6 2 0 8

8 0 8 7 2 0 8

9 0 9 7 2 0 9

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2005

(Kilograms) 2,787

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 397

Russian Dairy Supp ply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

13,450

13,491

13,488

13,452

Milk Production per Cow

2,372

2,372

2,394

2,417

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

31,900 14,300 14,513

31,998 14,212 14,676

32,296 14,117 15,070

32,512 14,025 15,386

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

275 40 355 322 3 30 355

291 52 374 339 3 32 374

298 39 369 333 3 33 369

300 44 377 341 3 33 377

303 48 384 347 3 33 384

307 50 390 354 3 34 390

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

220 65 292 279 5 8 292

226 68 302 289 5 8 302

218 69 295 282 5 8 295

220 74 302 289 5 8 302

221 78 307 294 5 8 307

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

120 30 160 150 10 0 160

130 30 160 150 10 0 160

132 30 162 152 10 0 162

138 29 167 157 10 0 167

143 28 171 161 10 0 171

Milk Cow Numbers

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

(Thousand Head) 13,393 13,404 13,468

13,574

13,715

13,891

14,101

2,488

2,511

2,535

2,559

2,584

(Thousand Metric Tons) 32,685 33,029 33,503 13,938 13,851 13,769 15,661 16,088 16,629

34,087 13,686 17,272

34,767 13,609 17,997

35,547 13,547 18,798

36,430 13,503 19,677

312 54 399 362 3 34 399

317 57 408 370 3 35 408

322 62 418 380 4 35 418

327 71 433 394 4 36 433

333 82 452 412 4 36 452

222 86 316 303 5 8 316

225 94 328 315 5 8 328

227 104 339 326 5 8 339

229 116 353 340 5 8 353

231 132 370 357 5 8 370

234 149 391 378 5 8 391

149 26 175 165 10 0 175

158 22 180 169 11 0 180

166 18 184 174 11 0 184

176 14 190 179 11 0 190

186 12 198 187 11 0 198

198 10 209 197 11 0 209

2,441

2005

(Kilograms) 2,464

398 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Slovakian Republic c Dairy Supply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

261

256

258

262

Milk Production per Cow

4,106

4,225

4,274

4,326

4,385

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

1,072 426 643

1,081 429 649

1,103 433 666

1,132 438 691

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

16 1 17 14 2 0 17

16 1 17 15 2 0 17

17 0 17 15 2 0 17

17 0 17 15 2 0 17

18 0 18 15 3 0 18

18 0 18 15 3 0 18

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

50 4 53 49 4 0 53

50 4 53 50 3 0 53

51 4 55 50 4 0 55

53 4 57 51 6 0 57

56 4 59 52 7 0 59

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

16 0 16 10 6 0 16

16 0 17 10 7 0 17

17 0 17 10 7 0 17

17 0 18 10 8 0 18

18 0 18 10 8 0 18

Milk Cow Numbers

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

274

275

275

274

273

4,475

4,529

4,575

4,625

4,674

(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,168 1,201 1,225 443 449 453 723 749 769

1,245 458 784

1,256 462 791

1,265 467 795

1,275 472 800

19 0 19 15 3 0 19

19 0 19 16 4 0 19

19 0 19 16 4 0 19

19 0 19 16 3 0 19

19 0 19 16 3 0 19

57 4 61 53 8 0 61

59 4 62 53 9 0 62

60 4 63 54 9 0 63

60 4 63 54 9 0 63

60 4 64 55 8 0 64

60 4 64 56 8 0 64

19 0 19 10 9 0 19

19 0 20 10 9 0 20

20 0 20 11 9 0 20

20 0 20 11 10 0 20

20 0 20 11 10 0 20

20 0 20 11 10 0 20

(Thousand Head) 266 271 (Kilograms) 4,426

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 399

Slovenia Dairy Supp ply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

206

212

214

215

3,061

3,122

3,138

3,168

629 300 235

663 303 265

671 304 272

680 305 279

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

4 0 4 3 1 0 4

5 0 5 3 1 0 5

5 0 5 3 1 0 5

5 0 5 3 1 0 5

5 0 5 4 2 0 5

5 0 5 4 2 0 5

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

24 1 25 21 4 0 25

27 1 28 21 6 0 28

27 1 29 22 7 0 29

28 1 29 22 7 0 29

29 1 30 22 8 0 30

4 0 4 1 2 0 4

4 0 4 2 3 0 4

4 0 4 2 3 0 4

4 0 4 2 3 0 4

5 0 5 2 3 0 5

Milk Cow Numbers

Milk Production per Cow

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

215

215

214

213

212

3,259

3,290

3,314

3,343

3,370

(Thousand Metric Tons) 690 695 700 306 307 308 288 293 297

706 308 302

708 309 304

712 310 306

716 311 310

5 0 5 4 2 0 5

5 0 5 4 2 0 5

5 0 5 4 1 0 5

5 0 5 4 1 0 5

5 0 6 4 1 0 6

29 1 30 23 8 0 30

30 1 31 23 8 0 31

30 1 31 24 8 0 31

30 1 31 24 7 0 31

30 1 32 25 7 0 32

31 1 32 25 7 0 32

5 0 5 2 3 0 5

5 0 5 2 3 0 5

5 0 5 2 3 0 5

5 0 5 2 3 0 5

5 0 5 2 3 0 5

5 0 5 2 3 0 5

(Thousand Head) 215 215

3,202

(Kilograms) 3,230

400 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Swiss Dairy Supply y and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

725

719

716

711

Milk Production per Cow

5,341

5,368

5,394

5,440

5,480

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

3,870 684 2,564

3,859 689 2,548

3,864 696 2,546

3,866 695 2,549

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

40 4 48 44 0 4 48

40 5 48 44 0 4 48

40 5 48 44 0 4 48

40 5 48 44 0 4 48

40 5 49 45 0 4 49

40 5 49 45 0 4 49

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

140 28 193 105 62 25 193

138 28 191 103 62 25 191

138 28 191 104 62 25 191

138 28 191 104 62 25 191

140 28 193 104 63 25 193

20 0 20 14 6 0 20

20 0 20 15 5 0 20

20 0 20 15 4 0 20

20 0 20 15 4 0 20

20 0 20 15 4 0 20

Milk Cow Numbers

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

703

699

695

692

689

5,547

5,584

5,621

5,659

5,697

(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,883 3,897 3,902 697 702 706 2,564 2,572 2,574

3,904 708 2,574

3,909 711 2,576

3,917 713 2,582

3,926 714 2,590

40 5 49 45 0 4 49

40 5 49 45 0 4 49

40 6 50 46 0 4 50

40 6 50 46 0 4 50

40 6 50 46 0 4 50

140 28 193 105 63 25 193

140 28 193 106 62 25 193

139 28 192 106 61 25 192

139 28 192 107 61 25 192

139 28 192 107 60 25 192

140 28 193 107 60 25 193

20 0 20 16 4 0 20

20 0 20 16 4 0 20

20 0 20 16 4 0 20

20 0 20 16 4 0 20

20 0 20 16 4 0 20

20 0 20 16 4 0 20

(Thousand Head) 709 707 (Kilograms) 5,513

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 401

Ukrainian Dairy Sup pply and Utilization 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Milk Cow Numbers

5,431

5,281

5,167

5,128

(Thousand Head) 5,095 5,066 5,086

5,129

5,191

5,224

5,242

Milk Production per Cow

2,246

2,263

2,275

2,298

2,316

2,353

2,372

2,392

2,412

2,432

Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use

12,200 2,950 9,100

11,952 2,992 8,835

11,755 3,030 8,618

11,782 3,061 8,621

(Thousand Metric Tons) 11,800 11,826 11,968 3,086 3,106 3,130 8,620 8,631 8,745

12,168 3,157 8,911

12,416 3,184 9,122

12,601 3,215 9,270

12,750 3,249 9,382

Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

120 2 132 105 12 15 132

121 2 138 108 16 15 138

121 2 138 108 15 15 138

121 2 138 109 14 15 138

121 2 138 111 13 15 138

121 2 138 111 12 15 138

122 2 139 113 11 15 139

122 2 139 114 11 15 139

123 2 140 115 10 15 140

124 2 141 116 9 15 141

124 2 141 118 8 15 141

Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

57 1 59 51 7 1 59

64 1 66 49 17 1 66

63 1 65 50 14 1 65

64 1 66 51 13 1 66

64 1 66 53 12 1 66

64 1 66 54 12 1 66

66 1 68 55 12 1 68

68 1 70 56 13 1 70

70 1 72 57 14 1 72

72 1 74 58 15 1 74

74 1 76 60 15 1 76

Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use

45 0 47 17 28 2 47

47 0 49 19 28 2 49

46 0 48 21 25 2 48

46 0 48 22 24 2 48

46 0 48 24 23 2 48

46 0 48 25 21 2 48

47 0 49 26 21 2 49

48 0 50 27 21 2 50

49 0 51 28 20 2 51

49 0 51 30 20 2 51

50 0 52 31 19 2 52

(Kilograms) 2,334

402 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook

Per Capita Dairy Co onsumption of Selected Countries 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Argentina Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder

60.9 1.3 11.3 0.6 2.5

60.1 1.2 11.0 0.6 2.6

60.5 1.2 11.1 0.6 2.6

60.9 1.2 11.2 0.6 2.6

61.3 1.3 11.3 0.6 2.6

Australia Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder

103.7 3.2 11.0 1.6 1.0

103.6 3.2 11.0 1.5 1.1

104.1 3.2 11.2 1.6 1.1

104.3 3.2 11.5 1.6 1.1

104.2 3.2 11.7 1.6 1.1

Brazil Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder

73.8 0.5 2.7 0.6 2.3

74.1 0.4 2.7 0.6 2.3

75.1 0.4 2.7 0.6 2.4

76.2 0.5 2.8 0.6 2.4

Canada Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

91.1 2.6 10.6 1.2

90.2 2.7 10.6 1.2

90.3 2.6 10.6 1.2

Czech Republic Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

91.6 4.0 11.4 2.2

93.2 4.0 11.8 2.4

European Union Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder

85.0 4.3 15.4 2.5 1.4

Hungary Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

62.2 1.3 11.6 0.6 2.7

62.6 1.3 11.8 0.6 2.8

63.1 1.3 11.9 0.6 2.8

63.5 1.3 12.0 0.7 2.8

64.0 1.3 12.2 0.7 2.9

104.1 3.2 11.8 1.6 1.1

104.0 3.2 12.0 1.6 1.1

103.8 3.2 12.1 1.6 1.1

103.7 3.2 12.3 1.6 1.1

103.6 3.2 12.4 1.6 1.1

103.4 3.2 12.5 1.6 1.1

77.3 0.5 2.9 0.7 2.5

78.2 0.5 2.9 0.7 2.5

79.2 0.5 3.0 0.7 2.6

80.1 0.5 3.1 0.7 2.6

81.0 0.5 3.1 0.7 2.7

81.9 0.5 3.2 0.7 2.8

82.7 0.5 3.3 0.7 2.8

90.4 2.6 10.7 1.2

90.5 2.6 10.7 1.2

90.6 2.6 10.8 1.2

90.8 2.6 10.9 1.2

91.0 2.6 11.0 1.2

91.2 2.6 11.1 1.2

91.5 2.6 11.2 1.2

91.7 2.6 11.4 1.2

94.3 4.0 12.0 2.6

95.2 4.0 12.3 2.7

96.1 4.1 12.4 2.8

96.7 4.1 12.6 2.8

97.4 4.1 12.7 2.9

98.0 4.2 12.9 2.9

98.6 4.2 13.0 2.9

99.3 4.2 13.2 3.0

99.9 4.3 13.3 3.0

84.8 4.3 15.5 2.4 1.4

84.5 4.3 15.6 2.4 1.4

84.2 4.3 15.7 2.3 1.4

83.9 4.2 15.8 2.3 1.4

83.7 4.2 16.0 2.3 1.4

83.5 4.2 16.1 2.2 1.4

83.3 4.2 16.3 2.2 1.4

82.9 4.2 16.4 2.1 1.4

82.4 4.1 16.4 2.1 1.4

82.0 4.1 16.5 2.1 1.4

87.8 1.2 8.4 0.9

88.7 1.2 8.6 1.0

89.2 1.3 8.8 1.1

89.8 1.3 9.0 1.1

90.3 1.4 9.3 1.1

90.9 1.5 9.5 1.2

91.3 1.6 9.8 1.2

91.9 1.6 10.0 1.2

92.4 1.7 10.2 1.3

92.9 1.8 10.5 1.3

93.4 1.9 10.8 1.3

India Fluid Milk Butter NFD Milk

32.5 1.9 0.1

32.2 2.2 0.2

32.2 2.3 0.2

32.3 2.3 0.2

32.3 2.3 0.2

32.4 2.4 0.2

32.5 2.4 0.2

32.5 2.4 0.2

32.6 2.4 0.2

32.7 2.4 0.2

32.7 2.5 0.2

Japan Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

39.1 0.6 1.8 2.0

39.1 0.6 1.9 2.0

39.2 0.7 1.9 2.0

39.3 0.7 1.9 2.0

39.4 0.7 1.9 2.0

39.5 0.7 1.9 2.0

39.5 0.7 1.9 2.0

39.6 0.7 1.9 2.0

39.7 0.7 1.9 2.0

39.8 0.7 2.0 2.1

40.0 0.7 2.0 2.1

Mexico Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

38.5 0.4 1.8 2.5

39.5 0.4 1.8 2.5

39.5 0.4 1.8 2.5

39.6 0.4 1.8 2.5

39.8 0.4 1.9 2.5

39.9 0.4 1.9 2.6

40.1 0.5 1.9 2.6

40.3 0.5 1.9 2.6

40.5 0.5 2.0 2.6

40.7 0.5 2.0 2.6

41.0 0.5 2.0 2.6

(Kilograms) 61.7 1.3 11.5 0.6 2.7

World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 403

Per Capita Dairy Co onsumption of Selected Countries (continued) 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

New Zealand Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder

104.7 7.1 7.9 2.9 8.9

106.2 7.0 7.0 2.9 9.0

106.3 6.9 7.6 3.0 9.0

105.3 6.9 7.8 3.0 9.0

105.2 6.9 7.9 3.0 9.1

Poland Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

130.7 4.4 3.8 0.8

129.1 4.4 3.7 0.8

128.4 4.4 3.7 0.8

129.5 4.4 3.8 0.8

130.6 4.4 3.8 0.8

Romania Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

169.0 0.3 2.2 0.2

169.5 0.3 2.4 0.2

169.6 0.4 2.5 0.2

169.6 0.4 2.6 0.2

Russia Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

97.9 2.2 1.9 1.0

97.7 2.3 2.0 1.0

97.4 2.3 1.9 1.1

Switzerland Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

94.2 6.1 14.5 2.0

94.6 6.1 14.2 2.0

Ukraine Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

60.0 2.1 1.0 0.3

United States Total Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk

99.8 2.2 14.0 1.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

104.4 6.9 8.1 3.0 9.1

104.1 6.9 8.1 3.0 9.1

103.9 6.9 8.2 3.0 9.1

103.6 6.9 8.3 2.9 9.1

103.4 6.8 8.4 2.9 9.1

131.6 4.5 3.9 0.8

132.8 4.5 3.9 0.9

133.6 4.5 4.0 0.9

134.1 4.5 4.1 0.9

134.8 4.5 4.1 0.9

135.2 4.5 4.2 0.9

169.5 0.4 2.6 0.2

169.4 0.4 2.7 0.3

169.2 0.4 2.8 0.3

169.1 0.5 2.8 0.3

169.0 0.5 2.9 0.3

169.0 0.5 3.0 0.3

168.9 0.5 3.0 0.3

97.0 2.4 2.0 1.1

96.7 2.4 2.0 1.1

96.4 2.5 2.1 1.1

96.0 2.5 2.2 1.2

95.6 2.6 2.3 1.2

95.3 2.7 2.4 1.3

95.0 2.8 2.5 1.3

94.9 2.9 2.7 1.4

95.3 6.1 14.2 2.1

95.0 6.1 14.2 2.1

95.1 6.1 14.2 2.1

95.6 6.1 14.3 2.1

95.9 6.2 14.4 2.2

96.2 6.2 14.4 2.2

96.4 6.2 14.5 2.2

96.5 6.2 14.5 2.2

96.7 6.2 14.5 2.2

61.4 2.2 1.0 0.4

62.6 2.2 1.0 0.4

63.7 2.3 1.1 0.5

64.7 2.3 1.1 0.5

65.5 2.4 1.1 0.5

66.4 2.4 1.2 0.5

67.3 2.4 1.2 0.6

68.3 2.5 1.2 0.6

69.3 2.5 1.3 0.6

70.3 2.5 1.3 0.7

99.3 2.2 14.3 1.4

99.2 2.1 14.5 1.6

99.0 2.1 14.7 1.6

98.9 2.0 14.8 1.6

98.8 2.0 15.0 1.5

98.7 2.0 15.1 1.5

98.6 2.0 15.3 1.5

98.6 2.0 15.4 1.5

98.6 2.0 15.6 1.5

98.6 2.0 15.7 1.4

(Kilograms) 104.8 6.9 8.0 3.0 9.1