FAPRI 2001 U.S. AND WORLD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK January 2001
Staff Report 1-01 ISSN 1534-4533
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Iowa State University University of Missouri-Columbia Ames, Iowa U.S.A.
Iowa State University Bruce A. Babcock John Beghin Frank Fuller Samarendu Mohanty Jay Fabiosa Phillip Kaus Cheng Fang Chad Hart Holger Matthey Stephane de Cara Karen Kovarik
University of Missouri-Columbia Abner W. Womack Robert E. Young II Pat Westhoff Joe Trujillo D. Scott Brown Gary M. Adams Brian Willott Daniel Madison Seth Meyer John Kruse
Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, Iowa State University and the University of Missouri-Columbia, 2001. Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 96-34149-2533. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the authors and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
Iowa State University does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, age, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, sex, marital status, disability, or status as a U.S. Vietnam Era Veteran. Any persons having inquiries concerning this may contact the Director of Affirmative Action, 318 Beardshear Hall, 515-294-7612.
Contents Figures List ............................................................................................................................. iv Tables List ............................................................................................................................. vii Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................................................ xv Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 Overview of the 2001 Outlook ............................................................................................... 3 Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections ........................................................................ 17 U.S. Macroeconomic and Policy Assumptions ................................................................. 18 World Macroeconomic Assumptions ................................................................................ 24 World Agricultural Policy Assumptions............................................................................ 32 U.S. Crops .............................................................................................................................. 45 U.S. Wheat ......................................................................................................................... 50 U.S. Corn ........................................................................................................................... 52 U.S. Sorghum ..................................................................................................................... 54 U.S. Barley ......................................................................................................................... 56 U.S. Oats ............................................................................................................................ 58 U.S. Hay ............................................................................................................................. 60 U.S. Peanuts ....................................................................................................................... 62 U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products ............................................................................... 64 U.S. Rice ............................................................................................................................ 68 U.S. Upland Cotton ........................................................................................................... 70 U.S. Sugar .......................................................................................................................... 74 U.S. Livestock and Dairy ....................................................................................................... 77 U.S. Beef ............................................................................................................................ 84 U.S. Pork ............................................................................................................................ 86 U.S. Poultry ........................................................................................................................ 88 U.S. Dairy .......................................................................................................................... 92 U.S. State-Level Dairy Supply .......................................................................................... 94 U.S. Dairy Products ........................................................................................................... 98 U.S. Aggregate Measures ..................................................................................................... 101 U.S. Land Use .................................................................................................................. 108 U.S. Prices and Food Expenditures ................................................................................. 120 U.S. Government Costs ................................................................................................... 122 U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings .................................................................... 124 U.S. Farm Production Expenses ...................................................................................... 126 U.S. Net Farm Income ..................................................................................................... 128 Crop Insurance ................................................................................................................. 130 U.S. Agricultural Exports ................................................................................................ 132
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World Wheat ......................................................................................................................... 135 World Rice ............................................................................................................................ 159 World Coarse Grains ............................................................................................................ 175 World Oilseeds and Products ............................................................................................... 221 World Soybean and Soybean Products ........................................................................... 222 World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products ........................................................................ 244 World Sunflower Seed and Products ............................................................................... 258 World Palm Oil Complex ................................................................................................ 270 World Peanuts .................................................................................................................. 276 World Cotton ........................................................................................................................ 283 World Sugar .......................................................................................................................... 301 World Meat ........................................................................................................................... 323 World Beef and Veal ........................................................................................................ 326 World Pork ....................................................................................................................... 330 World Poultry ................................................................................................................... 334 World Dairy Products ........................................................................................................... 375
Figures Measures of U.S. Inflation ..................................................................................................... 19 U.S. Prime Interest Rate......................................................................................................... 19 Crude Oil, Average Refiner’s Acquisition Costs ................................................................... 20 Conservation Reserve Program ............................................................................................. 20 AMTA and Market Loss Assistance Payments ..................................................................... 21 U.S. Crop Loan Rates ........................................................................................................... . 21 Developing Real GDP Growth Rates .................................................................................... 25 Recovery of Real GDP Growth In Crisis Countries ............................................................. 25 Exchange Rate Projections .................................................................................................... 26 Population Growth Rates ....................................................................................................... 26 U.S. Crop Planted Area .......................................................................................................... 46 U.S. Wheat Domestic Use ..................................................................................................... 46 U.S. Corn ...................................................................................................................... .......... 47 U.S. Soybean Utilization ....................................................................................................... 47 U.S. Crop Exports .................................................................................................................. 48 U.S. Crop Prices ..................................................................................................................... 48 U.S. Cotton Prices .................................................................................................................. 49 U.S. Rice Prices...................................................................................................................... 49
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U.S. Cattle and Calves ........................................................................................................... 78 U.S. Cattle Prices ................................................................................................................... 78 U.S. Pork Production ............................................................................................................. 79 Barrow and Gilt Price ............................................................................................................ 79 U.S. Poultry Production ......................................................................................................... 80 U.S. Poultry Prices ................................................................................................................. 80 U.S. Livestock Production ..................................................................................................... 81 U.S. Meat Net Exports ........................................................................................................... 81 U.S. Dairy Cows .................................................................................................................... 82 U.S. Milk Production ............................................................................................................. 82 U.S. Cheese Consumption per Person ................................................................................... 83 U.S. Milk Prices ..................................................................................................................... 83 U.S. Land Use ...................................................................................................................... 102 Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Fiscal Year .................................................................. 102 Consumer Price Index for Food ........................................................................................... 103 Consumer Expenditures for Food ........................................................................................ 103 Government Outlays, Fiscal Year ........................................................................................ 104 U.S. Cash Receipts ............................................................................................................... 104 U.S. Farm Income ................................................................................................................ 105 Crop Insurance Outlays, Fiscal Year ................................................................................... 105 Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports ................................................................................. 106 Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports ...................................................................................... 106 Value of U.S. Animal and Grain Exports ............................................................................ 107 Feed Equivalents of U.S. Meat Exports .............................................................................. 107 World Wheat Area Harvested, Production, and Consumption............................................ 138 World Wheat Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ................................................................... 138 Wheat Net Exports by Major Competitors .......................................................................... 139 Wheat Net Imports by Major Regions ................................................................................. 139 Asian Wheat Imports ........................................................................................................... 140 Wheat Trade by Transition Economies ................................................................................ 140 U.S. Wheat Trade and Market Share ................................................................................... 141 EU Wheat Production, Consumption, and Net Trade ......................................................... 141 World Rice Area Harvested ................................................................................................. 162 World Rice Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ...................................................................... 162 Rice Net Imports by Major Countries ................................................................................. 163 Rice Net Exports by Major Countries ................................................................................. 163 World Coarse Grain Area Harvested ................................................................................... 180 World Corn Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ..................................................................... 180 Corn Net Imports by Major Regions ................................................................................... 181 Corn Net Exports by Competitors ....................................................................................... 181 U.S. Corn Trade and Market Share...................................................................................... 182
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Barley Net Exports by Major Countries .............................................................................. 182 Sorghum Net Imports ........................................................................................................... 183 Sorghum Net Exports ........................................................................................................... 183 Soybean Area Harvested ...................................................................................................... 224 Soybean Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ........................................................................... 224 Major Soybean Exporters .................................................................................................... 225 Major Soybean Importers .................................................................................................... 225 Soybean Production to Crush Ratios ................................................................................... 226 China Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade ................................................. 226 Major Soybean Meal Exporters ........................................................................................... 228 Major Soybean Meal Importers ........................................................................................... 228 Chinese Oilseeds Meal Consumption .................................................................................. 229 EU Oilseed Meal Consumption ........................................................................................... 229 Soybean Oil Trade and Price ............................................................................................... 231 Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries ............................................. 231 Rapeseed Area Harvested .................................................................................................... 247 Rapeseed Yield ..................................................................................................................... 247 Rapeseed Trade .................................................................................................................... 248 Rapeseed Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ......................................................................... 248 Rapeseed Meal Trade ........................................................................................................... 2 49 Rape Meal Utilization .......................................................................................................... 249 Rapeseed Oil Trade and Price .............................................................................................. 250 Rapeseed Oil Per Capita Consumption ............................................................................... 250 Sunflower Area Harvested ................................................................................................... 261 Sunflower Yield .................................................................................................................... 261 Sunflower Trade ................................................................................................................... 262 Sunflower Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ........................................................................ 262 Sunflower Meal Exports ...................................................................................................... 263 Sunflower Meal Imports ...................................................................................................... 263 Sunflower Oil Trade and Price ............................................................................................ 264 Sunflower Oil Per Capita Consumption .............................................................................. 264 Palm Oil Trade and Price ..................................................................................................... 272 Palm Oil Per Capita Consumption ....................................................................................... 272 Peanut Area Harvested ......................................................................................................... 278 Peanut Trade ......................................................................................................................... 278 Cotton Net Exports ............................................................................................................... 286 World Cotton Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price ................................................................... 286 Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 287 World Cotton Consumption ................................................................................................. 287 World Sugar Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price .................................................................... 304 World Sugar Beet and Sugarcane Area Harvested .............................................................. 304 Major Sugar Exporters ......................................................................................................... 305 Major Sugar Net Importers .................................................................................................. 305
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World Meat Prices ................................................................................................................ 324 World Meat Production and Trade ....................................................................................... 324 World Meat Trade and U.S. Market Share .......................................................................... 325 EU Per Capita Meat Consumption ...................................................................................... 325 Major Beef Importing Countries ......................................................................................... 328 Beef Export Market Share ................................................................................................... 328 EU Beef Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 329 Live Cattle and Beef Export ................................................................................................ 329 Major Pork Importing Countries ......................................................................................... 332 Pork Export Market Share ................................................................................................... 332 Canadian Pork and Swine Export ........................................................................................ 333 China Pork Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 333 Major Broiler Importing Countries ...................................................................................... 336 Broiler Export Market Share of Selected Countries ........................................................... 336 Per Capita Poultry Consumption ......................................................................................... 337 Brazilian Broiler Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 337 FOB Northern European Dairy Product Prices ................................................................... 377 Annual Growth in Milk Production and Total World Output ............................................. 377 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries .......................................................................... 379 Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries ........................................................................ 379 NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries ............................................................................ 381 WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries ........................................................................... 381
Tables U.S. Economic Projections and Program Provisions ............................................................ 22 Real GDP Projections ............................................................................................................ 27 GDP Deflator Projections (Expressed in Local Currency) ................................................... 28 Exchange Rate Projections (Local Currency per U.S. Dollar) ............................................. 29 Population Projections ........................................................................................................... 30 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Crops .......................................................................... 33 Other Assumptions for Crops ................................................................................................ 34 Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Livestock and Dairy Products ................................... 35 Commodity Price Projections ................................................................................................ 40 Policy Prices and World Prices by Commodity .................................................................... 42 U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization........................................................................................ 51 U.S. Corn Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 53 U.S. Sorghum Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 55 U.S. Barley Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 57 U.S. Oat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................ 59 U.S. Hay Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 61 U.S Peanut Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 63 U.S. Soybean Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 65
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U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 66 U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 67 U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 69 U.S. Upland Cotton Supply and Utilization .......................................................................... 71 U.S. Cottonseed Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 72 U.S. Cottonseed Meal Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 73 U.S. Cottonseed Oil Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 73 U.S. Sugar Crop Production .................................................................................................. 75 U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 75 U.S. Beef Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 85 U.S. Pork Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 87 U.S. Broiler Supply and Utilization....................................................................................... 89 U.S. Turkey Supply and Utilization....................................................................................... 90 U.S. Egg Supply and Utilization............................................................................................ 91 U.S. Milk Component Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 93 U.S. Dairy Cows by State ...................................................................................................... 95 U.S. Milk Production by State ............................................................................................... 96 State-Level All Milk Prices .................................................................................................... 97 U.S. Dairy Product Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 99 U.S. Planted and Idled Area ................................................................................................. 109 U.S. Wheat Production......................................................................................................... 111 U.S. Corn Production ........................................................................................................... 112 U.S. Sorghum Production .................................................................................................... 113 U.S. Barley Production ........................................................................................................ 114 U.S. Oat Production ............................................................................................................. 115 U.S. Hay Production ............................................................................................................ 116 U.S. Soybean Production ..................................................................................................... 117 U.S. Rice Production ............................................................................................................ 118 U.S. Upland Cotton Production ........................................................................................... 119 Consumer Price Indexes for Food ....................................................................................... 121 Total Consumer Expenditures for Food .............................................................................. 121 CCC Net Expenditures, by Program ................................................................................... 123 U.S. Cash Receipts from Farming ....................................................................................... 125 U.S. Farm Production Expenses .......................................................................................... 127 U.S. Farm Income Statistics ................................................................................................ 129 FAPRI Crop Insurance Baseline .......................................................................................... 131 Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Fiscal Year ............................................................. 133 Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Fiscal Year .................................................................. 133 Wheat Trade ......................................................................................................................... 137 World Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 142 U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization...................................................................................... 142 Argentine Wheat Supply and Utilization............................................................................. 143 Australian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 143 Canadian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 144
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Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................ 144 European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................. 145 Ukrainian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 145 Japanese Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 146 Russian Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 146 Other Former Soviet Union Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................ 147 Other Western European Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................... 147 Chinese Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 148 High-Income East Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................... 148 Indian Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 149 Pakistani Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 149 Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 150 Brazilian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 150 Mexican Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 151 Other Latin American Wheat Supply and Utilization ......................................................... 151 Algerian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 152 Egyptian Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 152 Iranian Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 153 Moroccan Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 153 Tunisian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 154 Other African/Middle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................ 154 Czech Republic Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 155 Hungarian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 155 Polish Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 156 Other Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization ...................................................... 156 Rest-of-World Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 157 Rice Trade ............................................................................................................................ 161 World Rice Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 164 U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 164 Argentine Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 165 Brazilian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 165 Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 166 European Union Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 166 Indian Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 167 Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 167 Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 168 Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 168 Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 169 Philippine Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 169 Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 170 South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 170 Taiwanese Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 171 Thai Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 171 Uruguayan Rice Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 172 Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 172 Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 173
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Corn Trade ............................................................................................................................ 177 Barley Trade ......................................................................................................................... 178 Sorghum Trade ..................................................................................................................... 179 World Corn Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 184 World Barley Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 184 World Sorghum Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 185 U.S. Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................... 186 Argentine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 188 Australian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 189 Canadian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .................................................................. 190 Chinese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization..................................................................... 191 Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..................................................... 192 European Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................... 193 South African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................... 194 Ukrainian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 195 Israeli Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 196 Japanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 197 Russian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 198 Other Former Soviet Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ..................................... 199 Algerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 200 Egyptian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 201 Nigerian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 201 Other African Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................... 202 Saudi Arabian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................... 203 Other Middle Eastern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................. 204 Brazilian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 205 Mexican Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 206 Other Latin American Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................. 207 Indian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 208 Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................ 209 Malaysian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 210 Philippine Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 210 Pakistani Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 211 South Korean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................... 212 Taiwanese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization................................................................. 212 Thai Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................... 213 Vietnamese Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 213 Other Asian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 214 Czech Republic Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................ 215 Hungarian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................ 216 Polish Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 217 Other Eastern European Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization........................................... 218 Rest-of-World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................... 219 Soybean Trade ...................................................................................................................... 223 Soybean Meal Trade ............................................................................................................ 227
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Soybean Oil Trade ................................................................................................................ 230 U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 232 Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 233 Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 234 Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 235 Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 236 Eastern European Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................. 237 European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................... 238 Former Soviet Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ........................................... 239 Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 240 Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 241 South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................... 242 Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................. 243 Rapeseed Trade .................................................................................................................... 245 Rapeseed Meal Trade ........................................................................................................... 245 Rapeseed Oil Trade .............................................................................................................. 246 Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 251 Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 252 Eastern European Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................... 253 European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................. 254 Former Soviet Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization .......................................... 255 Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization .................................................................. 256 Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 257 Sunflower Seed Trade .......................................................................................................... 259 Sunflower Meal Trade .......................................................................................................... 259 Sunflower Oil Trade ............................................................................................................. 260 Argentine Sunflower Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 265 Chinese Sunflower Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 266 Eastern European Sunflower Supply and Utilization ......................................................... 267 European Union Sunflower Supply and Utilization............................................................ 268 Former Soviet Union Sunflower Supply and Utilization .................................................... 269 Palm Trade ............................................................................................................................ 271 Chinese Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 273 European Union Palm Oil Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 273 Indian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 274 Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 274 Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 275 Peanut Trade ......................................................................................................................... 277 U.S. Peanut Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 279 Chinese Peanut Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 280 European Union Peanut Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 281 Indian Peanut Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 282 Cotton Trade ......................................................................................................................... 285 World Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 288 U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 288 African Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 289
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Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 289 Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 290 Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 290 Other Former Soviet Union Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................... 291 Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization ........................................................ 291 Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization ......................................................... 292 Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 292 Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 293 Uzbekistani Cotton Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 293 Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 294 Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 294 Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 295 Eastern European Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 295 European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 296 Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 296 Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 297 Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 297 Other Western European Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................... 298 Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 298 South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization ...................................................................... 299 Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 299 Sugar Trade .......................................................................................................................... 303 World Sugar Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 306 U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 307 Algerian Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 308 Argentine Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 308 Australian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 309 Brazilian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 309 Canadian Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 310 Chinese Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 310 Colombian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 311 Cuban Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 311 Eastern European Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 312 Egyptian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 312 European Union Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 313 Former Soviet Union Sugar Supply and Utilization ........................................................... 313 Indian Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 314 Indonesian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 314 Iranian Sugar Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 315 Japanese Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 315 Malaysian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 316 Mexican Sugar Supply and Utilization................................................................................ 316 Moroccan Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 317 Pakistani Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 317 Peruvian Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 318 Philippine Sugar Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 318
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South African Sugar Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 319 South Korean Sugar Supply and Utilization ....................................................................... 319 Thai Sugar Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 320 Turkish Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 320 Venezuelan Sugar Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 321 Beef and Veal Trade ............................................................................................................. 327 Pork Trade ............................................................................................................................ 331 Broiler Meat Trade ............................................................................................................... 335 U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 338 Argentine Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 339 Australian Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 340 Brazilian Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 341 Bulgarian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 342 Canadian Meat Supply and Utilization................................................................................ 343 China - Mainland Meat and Egg Supply and Utilization FAPRI Adjusted Data ............... 344 China - Mainland Meat and Egg Supply and Utilization Official Data ............................. 346 China - Hong Kong Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................... 347 Czech Republic Meat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 348 Estonian Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 349 European Union Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................................... 350 Hungarian Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 351 Indonesian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 352 Japanese Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 353 Latvian Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 354 Lithuanian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 355 Mexican Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 356 New Zealand Meat Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 357 Other Eastern European Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................ 358 Other Former Soviet Union Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................. 359 Philippine Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 360 Polish Meat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 361 Romanian Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 362 Russian Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 363 Slovakian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 364 Slovenian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 365 South Korean Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 366 Taiwanese Meat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 367 Thai Meat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 368 Ukrainian Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 369 Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries ......................................................... 370 Butter Trade .......................................................................................................................... 378 Cheese Trade ........................................................................................................................ 378 Nonfat Dry Milk Trade ........................................................................................................ 380 Whole Milk Powder Trade ................................................................................................... 380 U.S. Dairy Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 382
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Argentine Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 383 Australian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 384 Brazilian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 385 Bulgaria Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 386 Canadian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................... 387 Czech Republic Dairy Supply and Utilization .................................................................... 388 European Union Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................... 389 Hungarian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 390 Indian Dairy Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 391 Japanese Dairy Supply and Utilization................................................................................ 392 Mexican Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 393 New Zealand Dairy Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 394 Polish Dairy Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 395 Romanian Dairy Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 396 Russian Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 397 Slovakian Republic Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................. 398 Slovenian Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 399 Swiss Dairy Supply and Utilization..................................................................................... 400 Ukrainian Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 401 Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Selected Countries ........................................................ 402
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Abbreviations and Acronyms This list of abbreviations and acronyms used in the Agricultural Outlook is provided for the convenience of our readers. Abbreviations and acronyms typically are not spelled out in the text. ARPA BSE CAP CCC CEECs CIF CPI CRP CSF CWT DIAP DEIP EEP EU FAIR Act FAPRI FMD FMMO FOB FOR FSU GATT GDP ha HFCS kg MERCOSUR mha mmt mt NAFTA NFD NIS OIE OTMS PFC/MLA PIK rBST SMP STRV tmt TRQ WMP WTO UR URAA
Agricultural Risk Protection Act bovine spongiform encephalopathy Common Agricultural Policy Commodity Credit Corporation Central and Eastern European Countries Cost, Insurance, and Freight Consumer Price Index Conservation Reserve Program classical swine fever hundredweight Dairy Industry Adjustment Program Dairy Export Incentive Program Export Enhancement Program European Union Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute foot-and-mouth disease Federal Milk Market Order freight on board Farmer-Owned Reserve Former Soviet Union General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade gross domestic product hectare high-fructose corn syrup kilogram The Common Market of the Southern Cone of South America million hectares million metric tons metric ton North American Free Trade Agreement nonfat dry milk Newly Independent States Office International des Epizooties Over Thirty Month Slaughter Scheme Production Flexibility Contract/Market Loss Assistance payment in kind recombinant bovine somatotropin skim milk powder short tons raw value thousand metric tons tariff rate quota whole milk powder World Trade Organization Uruguay Round Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture
Executive Summary: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 1
Executive Summary The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) prepares a preliminary agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade every fall. This is followed by an outside review, re-evaluation of projections, and completion of the final baseline. The FAPRI 2001 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents these final projections for domestic and world agricultural markets. FAPRI projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements. FAPRI projections do not include conjectures on potential policy changes, such as those resulting from the likely accession of China to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The value of U.S. agricultural exports is expected to increase this year. A gradual recovery in agricultural prices from last year’s 13-year lows drives the value of agricultural exports up by 3.6 percent in 2000/01, and both export volume and value will continue to rise 2 to 4 percent for the next decade. The value of U.S. exports will increase more than 46 percent by 2010, mostly through high-value products. An 18.9 million metric ton (mmt) rise in grain and feed exports, predominately corn exports, also accounts for 27 percent of the total increase in export value. Indirect exports of corn—measured by the feed-grain equivalent of beef, pork, and poultry exports—will exceed 7 mmt by 2010, an increase of 43 percent over 1999/00 levels. Together, direct and indirect exports of corn increase by more than 25 mmt. With the weak euro and gradually rising wheat prices, U.S. exports face competition from the European Union (EU) on world markets. In 2000, the EU exported some wheat without subsidies, and Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms keep EU wheat prices below world prices for the next decade. On average, U.S. wheat exports grow 1.6 percent annually over the next decade. U.S. exports of oilseeds and oilseed products should increase substantially, but strong competition from South American exporters allows the United States to capture just 5 mmt of the projected 20 mmt increase in soybean trade. Despite low prices, soybean area in Brazil increases by 1 million hectares over the next five years. Meat consumption increases by 4.4 kilograms (kg) per person in the next decade, driven by rising per capita incomes, particularly in developing Asia, with its increasing population and continuing urbanization. World meat trade increases by 2.6 mmt, with annual growth of 2.7 percent in beef trade, 3.4 percent in pork, and 1.8 percent in poultry. Low-cost producers, including the United States, Argentina, Canada, and Brazil, gain export market share. The world price of beef increases by 3.3 percent annually over the next three years, while over the baseline the price of pork increases by 0.5 to 2.1 percent, and the price of poultry remains virtually flat. Higher meat prices induce world meat production to increase by 27.1 mmt. Productivity improvements and product innovations, driven by adoption of new technologies and favorable structural transformation, expand production potential. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks plague the EU. As a consequence, the EU has implemented a Purchase for Destruction Scheme, which is projected to reduce EU beef production by 10.4 percent in 2001. The outbreaks have sharply decreased European beef demand and induced the continuation of the Over Thirty Month Slaughter Scheme (OTMS) in the United Kingdom (U.K.). These destruction schemes moderate the short-run decline in beef prices. Hog prices recovered in 2000 to average $44.70 per hundredweight, but U.S. market hog inventories are expected to reach 55.4 million head this year, forcing hog prices back below $35 in 2002. Hog prices rebound in 2003 and remain between $39 and $46 per hundredweight. With competitive prices, U.S. pork exports rise an average of 6 percent annually over the next decade, exceeding 1 mmt in 2010. U.S. broiler prices remain stable at around $0.57 per pound, and exports increase to 2.78 mmt. The largest growth markets for poultry imports are Japan, China, Russia, and Hong Kong. Brazil’s currency depreciates against the U.S. dollar throughout the baseline, giving Brazilian poultry exporters a competitive edge and enabling them to increase their share of poultry trade from 18 to 26 percent.
Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 3
Overview of the 2001 U.S. and World Outlook Major Conditioning Assumptions The Macroeconomic Environment Baseline projections largely depend on two external factors, macroeconomic assumptions and agricultural policy assumptions. Macroeconomic projections used in the FAPRI baseline were obtained from Standard and Poor’s DRI. By 2000, world economic growth had largely recovered from the effects of the Asian and Russian economic crises. World real gross domestic product (GDP) grows an average of 3.2 percent over the baseline period. Most Asian and Latin American countries continue the strong recovery exhibited in 1999 and 2000 in the baseline period, reaching long-run growth rates near 5 percent by 2002. The countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) showed strong economic recovery in 2000, and they continue to grow at an average of 4.5 percent annually throughout the baseline. Among developed countries, the United States experiences a slowing in the growth of economic activity in 2001 to 2.7 percent, but growth is robust for the remainder of the baseline, averaging 3.5 percent annually in real terms. The European Union experiences a gradual decline in real GDP growth, reaching a long-run increase of 2.3 percent annually. Japan, which has the second largest economy in the world, averages 1.4 percent annual growth in real GDP over the baseline. Asian countries exhibit strong growth in the baseline, with real GDP increasing between 4 and 8 percent annually. Latin American countries experience stable economic growth between 4 and 6 percent annually over the baseline, and much of Africa and the Middle East demonstrate comparable economic strength. Most currencies in developed countries appreciate relative to the U.S. dollar during the baseline period. The euro, which depreciated more than 15 percent in 2000, appreciates 7.4 percent relative to the U.S. dollar in 2002 and appreciates more gradually for the remainder of the baseline, reaching $1.13/euro by 2010. The yen depreciates in 2001/02 and then moderately appreciates for the remainder of the projection period, reaching 110 yen per U.S. dollar in 2010. Currencies of all major exporting countries appreciate relative to the U.S. dollar, except the Brazilian real, which depreciates more than 4 percent annually. Agricultural Policy Assumptions The FAPRI baseline assumes that all government programs and international agreements currently in effect will remain in place over the projection period. There has been a significant impact on agricultural trade by the unilateral trade liberalization and farm policy reforms undertaken by various countries. Notable farm policy reforms included in the FAPRI outlook include the 1996 U.S. Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act and the Berlin Accord on Agenda 2000 reforms in the European Union. Although the FAIR Act only includes provisions through 2002, these provisions are extended at 2002 levels to the end of the baseline period. Loan rates are fixed in the baseline at the maximum levels allowed, and the Export Enhancement Program (EEP), though available, is not used in the projection period. The baseline also incorporates the provisions of the 2000 emergency spending package. The provisions of the Berlin Accord are implemented in the baseline as outlined in the legislation, including the dairy sector reforms from 2005 to 2007. Among the multilateral trade agreements, the Uruguay Round (UR) Agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) has had the largest impact on agricultural trade. The largest, most direct impacts of the UR agreement are the disciplinary actions placed on export subsidies and market access. These changes have their greatest effect on markets for wheat, coarse grains, meats, and dairy products. Industrialized members of the WTO implemented the last Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) concessions in 2000, while developing members will spread out their concessions until 2004. After 2004, all WTO provisions are assumed to remain constant until 2010/11. All members of the WTO returned to negotiations in 1999, which did not lead to any foreseeable policy change in the medium term. The potential results of these negotiations are not accounted for in this analysis. Finally, the FAPRI baseline does not make any assumptions on China’s accession to the WTO or enlargement of the European Union to include the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs).
4 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
As in the 2000 FAPRI outlook, the adjusted Chinese data series were used in the FAPRI international livestock model to generate the projections shown in the world meat section of this publication. The adjusted estimates of historical production and consumption are available online at www.fapri.iastate.edu in the spreadsheets containing the country-specific projections for the livestock sector. For comparison purposes, FAPRI provides projections based on official data. These projections were derived by applying the year-to-year percentage change generated from the model projections to the official historical data. Discrepancies between supply and demand were allocated evenly to production and consumption projections to force an equilibrium in the domestic market.
The Outlook for U.S. Agriculture Crops For the U.S. crops sector, the short-term projections suggest continued pressure on prices, with the long-range outlook showing modest improvement. Since 1996, the crops sector generally has seen favorable yields and higher acreage levels while at the same time demand has been rather sluggish. The result has been that production has exceeded disappearance and stock levels have recovered. Subsequently, prices have fallen, in some cases reaching the lowest levels since the mid 1980s. Looking forward, under the assumption of trend yields, prices for wheat and feed grains show modest recovery in 2001, but they still remain below historical averages. Both domestic and export demand continue to strengthen. For soybeans and cotton, little if any price recovery is expected for 2001. Planted area for corn and wheat declines in 2001. The decline in corn area can be attributed to the increase in fertilizer prices, as well as strong competition from soybeans due to the soybean loan rate. Continued weakness in wheat prices, coupled with poor planting conditions this past fall, lead to the lowest wheat area since 1973. For soybeans, the loan rate leads to another increase in planted area. Looking toward the end of the baseline, crop prices recover to levels in line with historical averages. For example, corn prices reach $2.50 per bushel, and wheat prices top $3.50 by 2010. Soybean prices remain below historical averages due to continued pressures from the supply side. The loan rate allows U.S. acreage to remain high despite low market prices. In addition, acreage in South America continues to expand. Income growth fuels the demand for food on a global basis, allowing U.S. exports to expand. In addition, domestic demand expands as the U.S. livestock sector increases production levels. With demand growth outpacing supply, stock levels of the major grains and oilseeds decline from their recent highs. Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy The outlook for the U.S. cattle industry is characterized by strong prices through 2003. The beef cycle is in a liquidation phase of the herd, continuing to tighten the supply of feeder calves. The result is a strengthening in prices through 2003, with feeder steer prices averaging above $95 per hundredweight. For beef, the long-term outlook depends on relatively stable domestic demand and continued growth in exports. The U.S. pork sector experienced recovery in 2000 as prices rebounded from the low levels of the previous two years. As a result, increases in the breeding herd lead to higher production in 2001 and 2002. Prices for 2002 are pressured lower due to the higher production. While still below the levels observed in the mid 1990s, pork prices recover and average above $40 per hundredweight for much of the projection period. Despite a stable to slightly declining breeding inventory, production approaches 22 billion pounds by 2010 based on gains in productivity. Broiler production reaches 30.9 billion pounds in 2001, an increase of 800 million pounds over the 2000 level. The long-term outlook for broiler production is for continued growth, but at a somewhat slower rate than that seen during the 1990s. Twelve-city broiler prices increase in 2001, reaching slightly over $0.57 per pound. Prices remain flat over the baseline as inexpensive feed prices keep supplies increasing. U.S. dairy cow numbers decline over the projection period as reductions in many states are not offset by growth in areas like the Southwest. Dairy cow numbers continue to increase in California over the baseline period. The rate of growth is slower than that seen during the 1990s. Milk production also continues its growth, as the increase in productivity more than offsets a declining herd size. With the assumed removal of price supports, the average price
Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 5
for “all milk” falls to $11.78 per hundredweight in 2002. As demand for cheese and fluid milk increases throughout the decade, prices recover to $13.35 by 2010. Government Outlays and Farm Income The combination of two assistance packages and heavy loan deficiency payments (LDPs) pushed government costs to a record $32 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2000. Outlays fall to $8 billion by the end of the baseline with one-half of the costs associated with contract payments authorized under the FAIR Act. The decline from FY 2003 to the end of the baseline is associated with further LDP reductions. Increased production and higher prices lead to recovery in crop cash receipts over the baseline period. For 2001, receipts grow by almost $4 billion. Growth in 2001 livestock receipts is primarily due to cattle and broilers. Dairy and broilers account for the long-term expansion in receipts. With higher fuel costs, expenses for manufactured inputs grew by almost $3 billion in 2000. Expenses show another significant increase in 2001 due to higher fertilizer prices. Expenses moderate somewhat in 2002, as fuel and fertilizer prices are projected to soften. The combination of lower government payments and higher production expenses leads to a decline of almost $6 billion in net farm income in 2001. Net income is pushed even lower in 2002 as government payments continue to decline. In addition, lower prices for hogs and milk squeeze total receipts.
The Outlook for World Agriculture Wheat Since peaking in 1996/97, world wheat area has declined continuously, falling nearly 15 mha. In 2000/01, world wheat area falls below its 1995/96 level. However, strengthening world wheat prices reverse this downward trend by 2001/02. World wheat area rises 4.3 mha between 2000/01 and 2002/03, mainly due to growth in the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine. Wheat area rises more slowly after 2003, averaging 0.1 percent annually. Boosted by growing international demand, the average U.S. wheat price at Gulf ports grows 2.76 percent annually over the baseline, reaching $159 per mt in 2010/11. World wheat production grows an average of 1.44 percent annually, with a total increase of nearly 90 mmt over the outlook period. The EU accounts for approximately one-quarter of this increase. World wheat trade decreases slightly in the first two years of projection, losing approximately 2.5 mmt in 2001/02 as compared to 1999/00 levels. In the remainder of the outlook period, world wheat trade is pushed up by the increasing demand in developing countries. World wheat trade rises nearly 21 percent, adding 18.9 mmt over the next decade. On the import side, the greatest growth occurs in Asian countries, which increasingly depend on imported wheat to meet income-driven growth in domestic wheat demand. In the last three years, China has almost disappeared from world wheat markets. This changes during the baseline period, with China accounting for a quarter of the expansion in world wheat trade. Chinese imports rise from 1 mmt in 2000/01 to 5.65 mmt in 2010/11. Although Chinese imports remain far below their historical levels, China establishes itself again as a major buyer on world wheat markets. High-income East Asian countries, which include South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, depend heavily on imported wheat to meet their increasing domestic demand. Imports in this region increase 19.26 percent over the outlook period, continuously rising from 5.08 mmt in 2000/01 to 6.05 mmt in 2010/11. India has been an unpredictable player on international wheat markets for the last decade, alternating as an importer or exporter of wheat depending on domestic production. India’s exports reach approximately 1 mmt in 2000/01 and then decline steadily, as domestic consumption rises faster than domestic supply. During the second half of the projection period, India becomes a net importer of wheat, with imports reaching 2.2 mmt by the end of the baseline. Brazil increases its imports by 8.3 percent over the baseline, mainly because of Argentina’s competitive advantage within MERCOSUR. Low-cost production in Argentina tends to restrict growth in Brazilian wheat area, which is almost flat during the next decade. Rapidly increasing domestic demand and continued trade liberalization contribute to the more than 30 percent increase in Mexico’s wheat imports over the baseline. Mexican wheat imports peak at nearly 2.5 mmt by 2010/11.
6 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Droughts in two consecutive years trigger a collapse in Iranian wheat production and force Iran to buy significant quantities of wheat on the world market to meet domestic needs. With weather back to normal conditions, Iranian wheat imports fall nearly 3 mmt in 2001/02 as compared to 2000/01 levels. However, beyond this date, Iran imports increase steadily to nearly 6 mmt, as consumption growth outpaces increases in production. On the export side, the EU benefits the most from the expansion of world wheat trade. Despite a gradual appreciation of the euro, the EU wheat price remains below the world price, allowing EU exports to be competitive on world wheat markets without subsidies. During the next decade, EU wheat production rises steadily at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent. The EU is expected to expand its exports by nearly 12 mmt and capture more than half of the expansion in world wheat trade. Other traditional wheat exporters also benefit from the expansion of world wheat trade. Though exports rise slowly, Canada remains the second-largest wheat exporter until 2007/08, when the EU overtakes Canada and moves into the second-place position behind the United States. Australian wheat production grows 28.6 percent over the baseline, the highest rate among major producers. This growth, coupled with a slow increase in domestic consumption, enables Australia to increase its exports more than 3.4 mmt over the outlook period. With exports growing at a slightly faster pace than world trade, Australia increases its market share to between 16 and 17 percent of world wheat market. Argentina, the fourth largest wheat exporter, expands its exports by 2.1 mmt over the outlook period, exporting more than 14 mmt in 2010/11. In the context of expanding world wheat trade, U.S. wheat exports grow slower than other competitors. U.S. exports rise at an average annual rate of less than 0.5 percent, peaking at 29.42 mmt in 2010/11. As a result, U.S. market share drops from 31 percent to 27 percent by the end of the outlook period. Coarse Grains During the last five years, coarse grain markets have experienced a sharp decrease in prices in response to weak import demand, along with relatively high yields. As a result, world coarse grain area lost more than 15.4 mha between 1996/97 and 1999/00. The response to the decline in prices has been the strongest for barley, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the decrease in world coarse grain area. During the same period, the decline in world corn area roughly totaled only 2 mha, despite the fact that world corn prices were 48 percent lower in 1999/00 than in 1995/96. In 2000/01, coarse grain area looses another 3 mha compared to 1999/00. Thus, world coarse grain production decreases nearly 18 mmt this year. From 2001/02 onward, this declining trend in coarse grain area is reversed, as feed grain demand recovers in major importing countries. World coarse grain area grows slowly over the next decade, adding another 3.8 mha, with increases in corn and barley area partially offset by a decrease in sorghum area. Despite this meager 0.16 percent annual growth rate, coarse grain production grows by 137 mmt (an increase of nearly 18 percent) during the baseline, with the bulk of the growth resulting from yield growth in corn production. Recovery in Asian countries and a corresponding increase in livestock production contribute to the 1.35 percent annual growth in world coarse grain consumption over the next decade. Driven by rising demand, coarse grain prices rise over 2 percent annually during the baseline. World coarse grain trade is projected to expand by more than 27 percent, growing 2.4 percent annually from 2000/01 to 2010/11. World corn trade grows the fastest among coarse grains, expanding more than 30 percent over the next decade. An additional 20.6 mmt, representing more than 80 percent of the expansion of world coarse grain trade, are brought to international corn markets during the baseline. More than 90 percent of the additional shipments are destined for developing countries to meet sharply increasing feed demand. The additional demand for corn imports comes primarily from Asian countries. Within Asia, the most important importers of corn are Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Japan, whose corn imports ranged from 16 to 16.4 mmt in the last five years, remains the largest Asian corn importer, absorbing nearly 24 percent of world corn trade in 2000/01. Lower feed demand, due to the decline in Japanese livestock production and trade liberalization measures, results in a flat to slightly declining trend in Japanese corn imports over the baseline. South Korea is the second largest Asian corn importer. South Korean corn imports are expected to increase from 8 to 9.8 mmt during the baseline, enabling South Korea to meet domestic feed demand. Finally, growth in Taiwanese corn imports is steady but slow, with imports increasing from 5.1 to 6.1 mmt.
Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 7
Livestock recovery and rebuilding of hog inventories contribute to an increase in feed demand in this country, but this is partially offset by a strengthening of environmental restrictions. Recently, China re-established itself as a significant corn exporter on international markets, with exports reaching nearly 10 mmt in 1999/00. However, in the mid to long run, China is an important potential market for corn. As soon as this year, Chinese corn exports are expected to be less than half of the 1999/00 level. With rising domestic feed use continuing to sap excess supplies, China increasingly depends on imported corn during the baseline. Consequently, China is expected to progressively disappear from the corn export market and become a net importer by 2005/06. By the end of the outlook period, Chinese corn imports total 6.9 mmt. Latin American countries represent the second largest growth market behind Asia. Mexico is the largest corn importer in this region, importing 6.3 mmt in 2000/01.Over the outlook period, Mexican corn imports grow nearly 2 percent annually, due to steadily increasing feed use and in response to a gradual reduction of over-quota tariff rates under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). By the end of the projection period, Mexico is importing 7.6 mmt. On the export side, Argentina appears to be the main competitor to the United States, but its ability to secure a large part of the increase in world corn trade is somewhat limited. As almost no area shifts into corn production during the baseline, corn output grows 2.3 mmt through yield increases alone. Increases in feed use, due to expansion of domestic livestock production, also reduce Argentina’s potential to export large quantities of corn. Nevertheless, Argentina expands its exports from 8.5 to 10 mmt during the baseline period, but its market share drops from 12.6 to 11.4 percent. In this context, the United States benefits the most from the expansion of world corn trade. The U.S. captures more than 90 percent of the increase in corn trade, with the U.S. market share rising from 79 to 82 percent. Barley trade expands 2.4 mmt over the baseline, growing an average 1.3 percent annually (less than half the pace of corn trade expansion). More than 70 percent of this increase occurs in China, to meet increasing brewing industry demand, and in Saudi Arabia, to meet higher demand for feed use. The EU captures most of the growth in barley trade, expanding its exports to more than 13 mmt by 2010/11. The EU’s barley export share increases from 61 to 66 percent, whereas Australian and Canadian market shares decline slightly. World sorghum trade is projected to increase by almost 2 mmt over the next decade, primarily because of growth in Mexican imports, which are partially offset by a decline in Japanese imports. The majority of the increase in sorghum imports is satisfied by an expansion of U.S. exports, from 5.1 to 6.5 mmt over the next decade. Rice Rice issues are politically very sensitive in Asian countries, where the bulk of the world’s rice production occurs, and achieving rice self-sufficiency is touted as an important goal by many Asian governments. As a result, the world rice market is strikingly thin compared to markets for other grains, with roughly 5 percent of the total world production traded on international markets. Recent fluctuations in world trade also show how responsive the world rice market can be. In 1997/98, world rice trade peaked at 22.7 mmt, increasing by 6.2 mmt in one year in response to droughts in Indonesia and the Philippines. Between 1997/98 and 1999/00, world rice trade has decreased approximately 3 mmt and rice prices have fallen nearly 24 percent. In 2000/01, continued urbanization and competition from other crops lead to a 2.3 mha reduction in world rice area as compared to 1999/00 levels. As a consequence, world rice production is 400.6 mmt in 2000/01, or 4.4 mmt lower than last year. In the next decade, world rice area loses another 2.4 mha. Nevertheless, in the long run, steadily rising yields offset the decrease in rice area, allowing rice production to reach 437.3 mmt by 2010/11. World rice consumption rises at nearly the same rate as production over the baseline. However, rice consumption patterns have significantly changed in recent years. The growth in rice consumption mainly occurs in nontraditional rice-consuming countries, such as the U.S., the EU, and Canada. Conversely, per capita rice consumption in Asian countries declines as a consequence of urbanization and income growth and as Asian consumers tend to favor substitution of wheat for rice in their diets. Over the next decade, world rice consumption increases 36.1 mmt, or nearly 9 percent. In the same time period, world rice trade rises 6.4 mmt, or nearly 33 percent. Aided by the decline
8 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
in domestic consumption per person, excess supplies in Asian countries expand, allowing Asia to capture most of the increase in rice trade. Indonesia and the Philippines are the most important importers on world rice markets. Indonesia remains the world’s largest importer during the baseline, with imports accounting for slightly less than 10 percent of world rice trade. Indonesia becomes increasingly dependant on imported rice to meet its domestic needs, importing an additional 700 tmt over the outlook period. The Philippines increases its imports by approximately 1 mmt, nearly doubling its share of world rice trade and accounting for nearly one-sixth of the trade expansion. As for Japan and South Korea, WTO commitments contribute to a steady decline in rice area and weak growth yields. Consequently, rice production falls 4 percent in Japan and 7.3 percent in South Korea. Japanese imports reach 600 tmt in 2010/11, as compared to 150 tmt in 2000/01. Thailand is the world’s largest rice exporter. Thai rice production grows 10.6 percent over the baseline, mostly through yield increases. Rising production and relatively flat consumption enables Thai exports to grow 27.4 percent over the next decade, capturing 27 percent of the increase in world rice trade. Besides Thailand, Vietnam and India secure most of the remaining increase in rice trade, seizing respectively 27.2 and 34.6 percent of the trade expansion over the outlook period. Despite a slight decline in area, Indian rice production grows an average of 1.2 percent, enabling India to double its market share over the baseline and to become the world’s third largest exporter by 2008/09. Driven by yield increases, Vietnamese production grows at an average rate of nearly 1.8 percent a year. Vietnamese rice exports reach 5.5 mmt by 2010/11, increasing 1.75 mmt over the baseline. Over the last three years, China has established itself as a significant exporter on the world rice market. In 2000/01, Chinese rice exports reach nearly 3 mmt. Relatively flat consumption during the early years of the outlook period, along with increasing yields, allows China’s market share to peak at 15.75 percent in 2003/04. However, over the long run, as Chinese rice consumption outpaces production, China’s market share drops to nearly 11 percent in 2010/11, with Chinese exports falling just below their 2000/01 levels. Besides Asian players, Argentina and Uruguay take advantage of duty-free access to the rice market in Brazil and other MERCOSUR countries to increase their exports by, respectively, 620 and 330 tmt by 2010/11. U.S. rice consumption grows nearly 2.1 percent annually over the next decade. With both area and yield increases in the early years of the baseline, growth in domestic production is able to meet domestic needs and allow increases in U.S. exports until 2003/04. In the latter half of the decade, however, U.S. rice exports decline, falling to 2 mmt by 2010/11. Oilseeds After reaching record levels in 1997, average oilseed prices have declined by roughly 40 percent. As a result of reductions in sunflower and rapeseed area, world oilseed area in 2000/01 decreases to 127 mha, roughly 1 percent below the 1999/00 level. In 2001/02, continued weak oilseed prices restrict the expansion of oilseed area in several major producing countries. Total oilseed area is projected to increase by 13 mha during the baseline, with most of the growth occurring after oilseed prices substantially recover in 2004/05. More than half of the growth in total area occurs in the South American soybean sector. Total oilseed production reaches 286 mmt in 2010/11, with the increase driven by growth in both area and yields. Oilseed crush increases 18 percent to meet the rising demand for oilseed meal and oil. Strong income growth in developing countries increases the demand for vegetable oils and livestock products, which increases the demand for oilseed oils and meals. Each importing country’s domestic policies and crushing capacity dictate whether oilseeds or oilseed products are imported. Taking these factors into account, world oilseed trade is projected to increase by 41 percent, while meal and oil trade increases 10 and 13 percent, respectively. Soybean area in 2000/01 increases 4 percent compared to last year, with the largest growth occurring in China and Argentina. Soybean area in the United States expands in response to the loan rate, which acts as the floor price and encourages soybean production, and to higher fertilizer prices, which shifts plantings in the Corn Belt away from corn and into soybeans.
Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 9
Soybeans account for the bulk of the growth in import demand, followed by rapeseed and sunflower seed. The majority of the increase in soybean imports occurs in China and the EU. China emerges as the second largest importer of soybeans because of strong per capita oil demand, demand for meal from the livestock sector, and Chinese grain policies. Chinese soybean net imports more than double over the baseline, rising from 7.6 mmt in 2000/01 to 16.3 mmt in 2010/11. The EU, the largest importer of soybeans in the world, increases its imports by 1.5 mmt over the baseline. Brazil captures 51 percent of the trade expansion, and the U.S. and Argentina will split the remaining growth evenly. Rapeseed trade grows at an annual rate of about 1 percent to 5.2 mmt by 2010/11. Canada dominates the export market for rapeseed, while China and Japan account for more than 90 percent of rapeseed imports. Oilseed meal consumption increases sharply from 139 mmt to nearly 169 mmt by the end of the projection period. The highest absolute increase is expected in soy meal consumption, which grows by 20 mmt. Soy meal also accounts for the majority of the growth in oilseed meal trade. The EU is the largest importer of soy meal, and its imports increase from 15 mmt in 2000/01 to 16.5 mmt in 2010/11. Apart from the EU, other growth markets for soy meal include Eastern Europe, South Korea, and Canada. With strong growth in soybean imports and increased domestic crush, China and Taiwan become small net exporters of soybean meal by the end of the projection period. Increasing incomes in less-developed countries play a crucial role in the more than 15 mmt increase in vegetable oil consumption by 2010/11. On a per capita basis, world vegetable oil consumption is expected to increase by an average of 0.26 kg per person annually over the baseline. Palm oil consumption increases 24 percent, while sunflower oil and soybean oil consumption increase 22 percent and 18 percent, respectively. Chinese soy oil net imports increase from 0.60 mmt to 1.18 mmt, making China the largest soybean oil importer. India becomes the second largest soybean oil importer, with its net imports reaching 1.10 mmt. India is the largest importer of rapeseed oil, and continued growth in population and income increases its imports from 370 tmt in 1999/00 to 803 tmt by 2010/11. Livestock and Poultry The general outlook for the world meat sector in the next decade is good. Consumption, production, and trade in meat rise, with world meat prices showing moderate strength. On the demand side, consumption of meat products increases as most countries in the world post reasonable income growth, with Asian economies growing the fastest at 5.6 to 6.3 percent annually. Meanwhile, meat production capacity continues to expand. Structural transformation into largersized operations leads to the adoption of technological improvements, advanced management practices, and product innovation. Moreover, several policy and institutional changes around the globe are improving the functioning of world markets. A list of examples includes market-oriented domestic policy reforms, such as the Agenda-2000 reforms in the European Union; trade liberalizations in South Korea, Mexico, and Europe (including zero-for-zero agreements); and favorable institutional arrangements, such as the EU-U.S. Veterinary Equivalency Agreement. Per capita consumption of beef, pork, and poultry increases 4.6 kilograms between 2000 and 2010, with Asia posting the largest increase, followed by the Americas, the Former Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Higher meat demand exerts upward pressure on meat prices, resulting in a moderate strengthening of prices. The beef price increases 3.27 percent in the next three years. Pork prices cycle throughout the baseline, with prices at successive peaks increasing 0.5 to 2.1 percent from peak to peak. The poultry price has an average increase of 0.36 percent annually throughout the decade. Responding to the higher meat prices, world meat production rises 17 percent during the projection period, amounting to an increase of 27.39 mmt. Broiler production shows the fastest growth, followed by pork and beef production. Because meat consumption growth occurs mostly in Asia—particularly in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, all traditionally meat deficit countries—meat trade satisfies some of the rising demand, which increases by 2.61 million metric tons, or 27.81 percent, over the next decade. The increase in meat trade is dominated by pork trade, the leading meat in Asia, followed by beef, the leading meat in the Americas, and then poultry. Low-cost producers from the Americas capture a growing share of international meat trade throughout the baseline. With abundant feed supplies, advanced production technologies, adequate transport and storage infrastructure, and exceptional sanitary and food safety controls, the U.S. and Canada increase their share of the international meat market. The U.S. alone captures 42 percent of the growth in meat trade during the decade. Other gainers include Brazil
10 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
The BSE Crisis in Europe BSE was first diagnosed in the U.K. in 1986. BSE is a disease of the brain in cattle caused by an infectious protein called a “prion”, and has been transmitted primarily through ingestion of feedstuffs containing infected meat and bone meal. As a consequence of the practice of feeding of mammalian protein (such as meat and bone meal) to cattle, BSE reached epidemic proportions in the U.K. in 1992 and 1993, with reported confirmed cases of 37,280 and 35,090, respectively. To date, the U.K. has reported 177,780 BSE cases on 35,156 farms. Since the discovery of BSE, consumer fears about the safety of European beef have affected European meat consumption twice in crisis proportions. The first instance occurred in March of 1996 following the announcement from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries’ (MAFF) BSE Advisory Committee that, “although there is no direct evidence of a link, on current data and in the absence of any credible alternative the most likely explanation at present is that cases of variant Creutzfeldt-Jackob Disease (vCJD) are linked to exposure to BSE before the introduction of the Specified Bovine Offal (SBO) ban in 1989.” After the announcement, per capita consumption in the U.K. declined 16 percent. Also, as BSE cases were reported in other European countries, beef per capita consumption in Portugal, Ireland, and France decreased by 22, 12, and 8 percent, respectively. Countries with no BSE cases during this period include Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain. Nevertheless, consumers in these countries also reduced beef consumption by 2 to 7 percent. Only Austria, Belgium-Luxemburg, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden increased beef consumption during this period, by 2 to 6 percent. International markets also reacted to the MAFF announcement, and exports from the U.K. and other affected member states were banned within the EU and by many beef-importing countries outside Europe. World net beef trade in 1996 dropped by 1.6 percent, and EU average beef exports for 1995-1996 were 12.86 percent lower compared to the average of the two previous years. However, a large part of the reduction in EU beef exports was a result of the restrictions placed on the EU’s subsidized exports by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). To restore consumer confidence in the safety of beef products, the EU initiated several measures, including implementing an identification and registration system for cattle, banning the use of mammalian meat and bone meal in animal feed, removing beef from cattle slaughtered after the age of 30 months from the food chain (OTMS), and removing Specified Risk Materials that potentially harbor detectable BSE infectivity from the human food and animal feed chain. Per capita beef consumption in the EU returned to the pre-crisis level as early as 1999. New BSE cases in the U.K. dropped from the peak of 277 per 1,000 animals to only 24. Beef exports were at the maximum subsidized level allowed by GATT. The second BSE crisis occurred in 2000, just as the EU beef sector was moving out from under the shadow of the first BSE crisis. The EU began implementing Agenda 2000 reforms to further balance the beef sector and make EU beef more competitive on both domestic and international meat markets. But these efforts were interrupted in late October 2000 by an increasing number of BSE cases discovered in continental Europe. In contrast to the decline in BSE cases in the U.K., cases in other member states have increased an average of 77 percent since 1996, particularly in France, Ireland, and Portugal. Although the rate of infection is negligible at 0.66 cases per 1,000 animals compared to U.K.’s 297 cases at its peak, beef consumption has declined significantly throughout most of the EU. The credibility of public announcements that EU beef is safe to consume received damaging blows with each new case of BSE reported, particularly cases reported in countries with no prior incidence of BSE. Moreover, violations of safety measures reported in popular media fed consumer fears. In France, beef consumption declined by 47 percent in December 2000, and even with a partial recovery by mid February 2001, beef consumption remains 24 percent below the level in February 2000. On December 12, 2000, the EU Beef Management Committee ratified a series of measures designed to further ensure the safety of beef for consumers and provide support for the beef market. The measures included more flexible public intervention; testing and purchase for destruction until June 30, 2001, for cattle over 30 months old; continuation of the OTMS in the U.K.; and an advance on premiums from 60 to 80 percent. The Purchase for Destruction Scheme is financed 70 percent by the EU Commission and 30 percent by member states, while testing is financed equally by the Commission and member states. Although the FAPRI outlook was generated while the BSE crisis in Europe was still unfolding, the outlook does incorporate the impacts of recent events in its EU projections. The outlook assumes that EU beef consumption declines 6.1 percent (from 1999 levels) in 2000 and declines an additional 8.3 percent in 2001. Beef consumption in the EU is assumed to recover slightly in the middle of the decade as the BSE scare wanes, and then it continues to its long-term declining trend. Beef exports stay at 68 percent of the GATT limit from 2000 to 2005 and then climb to 83 percent in the remainder of the decade. On the supply side, the Purchase for Destruction is assumed to remain in effect from 2000 to 2004, while the OTMS in the U.K. continues throughout the baseline. Production recovers slightly following the termination of the Purchase for Destruction scheme, but a decline in dairy cattle inventories as a result of rising productivity causes beef production to decline toward the end of the baseline. With these shocks and adjustments in the beef sector, the beef price drops for three consecutive years, with the greatest decline in 2001 at 10.7 percent. Beef prices recover in 2004-2005 before declining an average of 1.95 percent annually until 2010.
Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 11
and Argentina. The Brazilian currency devalues 5.6 percent annually, improving its competitive edge relative to other meat exporting countries. However, Brazil’s export growth is constrained by sanitary considerations. Argentina, on the other hand, has been declared FMD-free and is able to penetrate new markets, especially the lucrative markets in Asia, which allows Argentina to regain international market share that was lost in the late 1990s. The opening of this decade was characterized by disruptions in world meat markets caused by sanitary issues. The most recent and much publicized incident is the BSE crisis in Europe that started late in 2000 and is still developing. As a result, Europe’s share of international meat trade has declined, as major importers have imposed restrictions or total bans on importation of EU beef products. In the early part of 2000, FMD outbreaks in Japan and South Korea closed the Japanese pork import market to pork imports from South Korea, as did the FMD outbreak in Taiwan in 1997. Similarly, cases of FMD reported in Brazil and Argentina were a setback to the anticipated entry of meat products from South America into lucrative markets in North America, Europe, and Asia. Beef The brightest sector in the world meat outlook is the beef market. A confluence of demand and supply factors in both the domestic and international markets exerts upward pressure on beef prices over the next three years, prompting them to rise 3.27 percent annually. The U.S. price for fed steers peaks at $76.64 per cwt in 2003. On the domestic side, the U.S. cattle inventories build during the first five years of the baseline. Moreover, beef exports from the EU dropped by 30 percent in 2000 and drop another 15 percent in 2001, resulting in a decrease in the excess supply of beef on world markets. The expansionary phase of the cattle cycle in the U.S. begins in 2002, and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of beef in 2006. U.S. beef net exports are only 22 tmt in 2006, but they grow rapidly to 259 tmt by 2008. Income and population growth, on the one hand, and various production constraints, on the other, enable consumption to rise faster than production in many countries, causing these countries to satisfy their excess demand with low-cost imports. For example, with an aging farm population and high production costs, production of all meats in Japan has been declining. In particular, beef production has been declining since 1995 and continues to decline in the projection period at a rate of 0.80 percent annually. In contrast, consumption of beef continues to grow 0.58 percent annually. The growing supply deficit is met by beef imports, which grow 1.03 percent annually to reach 1.11 mmt in 2010. By the end of the baseline, beef imports account for 69 percent of Japanese beef consumption. A similar pattern is exhibited in South Korea, especially following the liberalization of Korea’s beef import market in 2001. Although Korea’s quota has not been binding in recent years because of the financial crisis in 1997-1998, large impacts on beef imports are expected in the short-run as a result of the recent ruling by the WTO that South Korea’s discriminatory beef retail distribution system is inconsistent with WTO rules. In the projection period, beef production in South Korea declines 2.95 percent annually, while consumption rises 1.38 percent each year, causing beef imports to balloon to 436 tmt (69 percent of consumption) in 2010. Taiwan’s beef consumption has always been supplied primarily by imports, accounting for 96 percent of consumption. With growing beef consumption, Taiwan’s imports increase 3.47 percent annually over the baseline. Plagued by low profitability and credit problems, Mexico’s cattle inventory has been shrinking at an annual rate of 4.2 percent since its most recent peak at 30.7 million head in 1994. Whereas income and population growth drives an expansion of beef demand in the near term, it takes four years for the cattle sector to recover, causing beef net imports to increase 40 percent between 2000 and 2004. As the cattle sector recovers, net imports at the end of the decade are only 11.89 percent above the level in 2000. Strong demand for feeder cattle in the U.S. prompts an expansion in Mexico’s live cattle exports, although not at the high rates observed in the late 1990s. In 2010, Mexico’s live cattle exports reach 1.33 million head. At the height of the macroeconomic crisis in 1998, Russia’s beef imports dropped 22 percent. Food aid from the EU and the U.S. allowed Russia to increase its beef imports by 45 percent the following year. However, absent the food aid, imports declined again by 36 percent in 2000. In the next decade, Russia’s beef imports increase 55 percent, from 445 tmt in 2000 to 688 tmt in 2007. In the first half of the baseline, cattle stock and production in Russia continue to decline 1.39 percent annually, while consumption recovers and grows an average of 0.63 percent each year. Slight
12 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
recovery in production at the end of the decade dampens imports to 669 tmt in 2010. A similar pattern occurs in the CEECs, namely, an increasing beef deficit in the region as a result of a faster and earlier recovery in beef consumption at an annual rate of 1.37 percent during the first half of the decade with production not turning around until 2007. Canada is shifting its export mix from live cattle to beef products. With its additional slaughter capacity, Canada is retaining more cattle for domestic slaughter, cutting the average level of its live cattle exports to the United States in half compared to the peak level of 1.15 million head in 1996. At the same time, Canada’s beef exports jumped by 15 percent between 1999 and 2000, penetrating the Mexican beef import market as a substitute for certain types of beef exported from the United States that are currently subject to anti-dumping duties levied by the Mexican government. Between 2000 and 2007, Canada’s beef exports grow another 15 percent, as it establishes an increasing presence in some Asian beef import markets. Canada’s share of world beef trade doubles from 4 to 8 percent over the next decade. Australia exploits the opportunity created by the rising world price of beef to increase its exports of both live cattle and beef in the first half of next decade. Beef exports increase 2.17 percent annually, peaking at 1.38 mmt in 2006. Australian beef exports decline after 2006, but live cattle exports continue to grow 4.42 percent annually, reaching 1.34 million head in 2010. The Philippines and Indonesia are the primary destinations for Australian live cattle exports. With rising incomes and population, demand for both beef and live cattle have increased in Indonesia and the Philippines. Both countries have encouraged growth in their feedlot-fattening sectors, despite the absence of a viable cow-calf industry to support feeding operations. In the Philippines, for example, live feeder cattle imports are only charged a 3 percent duty, while a 30 percent levy is applied to beef imports within the quota limits and a 40 to 45 percent levy is charged for over-quota imports. Moreover, live cattle imports are not counted against the TRQ. Australia’s beef export market share increases from 37 to 38 percent before declining to 34 percent at the end of the baseline. Similarly, the recovery of New Zealand’s cattle sector is timely, allowing producers to benefit from rising demand and prices on international markets. A succession of severe droughts reduced beef production by 16 percent between 1997 and 1999. New Zealand ranchers retain more dairy calves to rebuild beef herds early in the baseline, allowing production to grow 2.74 percent, which exceeds the 2.07 percent increase in consumption. New Zealand is able to increase its beef exports by 30 percent over the next decade, keeping its share of the export market at around 15 to 16 percent. After suffering a setback in early 2000 due to some cases of FMD, primarily in illegally imported cattle, South American beef producers rebounded quickly. Argentina’s rapid response to the incidences of FMD enabled it to retain its FMD-free status from the OIE. FMD-free status removes restrictions against Argentine exports of both fresh-chilled and processed beef to Europe, North America, and Asia. Argentina’s beef sector benefits from the macroeconomic policy, which has stabilized the Argentine currency and lowered inflation. Moreover, beef producers receive support in the form of an interest cost subsidy of 2 percent, and exporters receive a tax rebate of 2.7 to 12 percent. Consequently, Argentina’s beef exports increase 61 percent over the baseline, reaching 566 tmt in 2010. Argentina’s share of beef trade returns to its peak level of 13 percent reached in the 1990s. Brazil, on the other hand, has made some progress in improving its production technology, infrastructure, and marketing. Brazil’s beef exports increase 14 percent in the next decade, doubling its share of beef trade from 10 to 20 percent. However, sanitary issues and domestic consumption growth of 1.89 percent annually limit Brazil’s export potential. The combination of Agenda 2000 reforms and the termination of all support schemes associated with the 1996 BSE crisis were expected to bring the EU beef sector into balance in the next decade. The beef intervention price is reduced by 20 percent under Agenda 2000, and public intervention purchases are replaced with private storage aid at the end of 2002. The calf-processing scheme was terminated in 1999, and the Over Thirty Month Scheme (OTMS) in the United Kingdom was scheduled for termination in 2001. However, the more widespread nature of recent BSE cases reported in the EU has disrupted the beef market, repeating the public concern witnessed in 1995-1996. Per capita beef consumption in the EU declines by 15 percent between 1999 and 2002, recovers from 2003 to 2005, and then resumes the gradual decline it exhibited in the early 1990s. Similarly, beef production drops 13 percent between 1999 and 2002 as a consequence of the indefinite extension of the OTMS in the United Kingdom and the introduction of the “Purchase
Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 13
for Destruction Scheme” in the rest of the EU. There is a slight recovery in EU beef production from 2003 to 2005, after which production gradually declines as dairy cattle numbers are diminished by long-run productivity growth. Flexible public intervention and continued export restitution support the EU beef market throughout the baseline. In 2000, EU beef exports dropped 30 percent. In the last quarter of 2000, major beef importers—such as Egypt, Japan, and Russia— imposed restrictions or a complete ban on beef imports from BSE-infected countries in the EU. Exports decline an additional 15 percent in 2001 before recovering slightly beginning in 2003. Pork The transformation of the pork sector in many countries has expanded productive capacity and improved productivity. However, rising incomes in countries that are not major pork-producing regions increases the demand for pork imports and boosts world trade by 39 percent, an increase of 872 tmt by 2010. World pork prices cycle slightly upward over the baseline, reaching a maximum of $45.88 per cwt in 2008. Prices at the bottom of the cycle also increase over the baseline. In the next decade, pork prices do not fall below $36 per cwt, the break-even price reported by USDA, except in 2002. Japan remains the largest pork importer in the world, with net imports reaching 1 mmt in 2010. However, the 1.36 percent annual growth in imports in the next decade is much weaker than the 6.58 percent growth achieved in the 1990s. The primary reason for the slowdown in Japanese pork imports is that Japan has introduced a form of deficiency payments program that insulates Japanese pork producers from unfavorable price movements in the wholesale carcass market. As a result, production declines a scant 0.28 percent annually compared to the 2.17 percent decline in the 1990s. Despite the policy change, Japan’s pork imports increase 14 percent over the baseline. With production 29 percent lower than its pre-FMD level, Taiwan imports non-muscle and variety meats to satisfy its domestic requirements. Domestic pork consumption increases 1.29 percent annually compared to the 0.84 percent increase in production, raising Taiwan’s imports of cheap muscle meats. Taiwan’s total pork imports increase 7.48 percent annually. South Korea gained significant share of the Japanese pork import market after the ban on imports from Taiwan was implemented in 1997. However, FMD cases in pork-producing regions have restricted South Korea’s exports to Japan. With more pork remaining on domestic markets, South Korea’s pork imports decline 11 percent between 2000 and 2010. Hong Kong gradually replaces imports of live, slaughter-ready swine with pork imports. Swine imports decline 15 percent compared to the 1997 level, while pork imports expand by 25 percent in the next decade. Mexico shows strong growth in pork demand, increasing 4.06 percent annually in response to improved consumer purchasing ability and growing population. Domestic pork production is constrained by poor infrastructure and distribution to 2.97 percent annual growth. Mexican pork imports expand from 95 tmt in 2000 to 285 tmt in 2010. The shift toward smaller production units and the limited availability of feed grains have slowed recovery in the Russian pork sector in the short run. Infrastructure and institutional constraints darken the long-term prospects for recovery. Production increases only 1 percent annually during the baseline. However, modest economic growth boosts consumption by 1.73 percent annually, causing net imports to increase from 299 tmt in 2000 to 477 tmt in 2010. Low-cost producers in North America are in the best position to capture the growth in the international pork market. In particular, the U.S. continues to build up its hog inventory, approaching the 1998 level of 55.3 million head in 2001 and pushing prices to their lowest level for the next decade in 2002. By keeping a tight reign on production costs and improving productivity, efficient producers are able to weather the downturn in prices, and at the end of the decade, hog inventories are 3.58 percent larger. With production annual growth of 1.51 percent exceeding consumption growth of 1.17 percent, net exports from the U.S. increase 6.10 percent annually, allowing the U.S. to double its market share from 7.7 percent to 14.4 percent. Canada has complemented its abundant feed resources and improved production technology with additional investments in hog production facilities and meat processing plants and aggressive export marketing in the Asian market. Canadian pork production grows 2.80 percent annually, exceeding the more modest annual increase in consumption of 1.75 percent. Canada’s net exports of pork increase from 680 tmt in 2000 to 1,019 tmt in 2010, making
14 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Canada the largest single-country pork exporter and affording it 38 percent of the international market. Expansion of the processing sector is one of the engines propelling this growth. Canada has expanded its meatpacking capacity, reducing live swine exports to the U.S. by 20 percent compared to the peak level of 4.14 million head in 1999. Moreover, Canadian processors seek to differentiate their products by using better coordination mechanisms that ensure quality. They also have shown flexibility in segregating U.S. and Canadian pigs for processing in response to Australia’s sanitary concerns over pork originating from U.S. swine. The EU has been the largest pork exporter in the world, with a market share of 46.5 percent. The EU pork market is mature and balanced, with consumption and production evolving at almost the same annual rate of 0.68 percent. However, the disruption of the beef market due to the BSE scare is spilling over into the pork sector. As consumers shift away from beef to other meats, per capita pork consumption increases by 1.31 percent in 2001, reducing the EU’s exportable surplus by 11 percent. With strengthened prices, production increases and allows the EU to export more in the next two years. In the medium term, beef consumption adjusts toward normal levels at a time when swine production is high, prompting a decline in pork prices and a reduction in production and net exports. However, the low feed prices that result from the Agenda 2000 reforms allow the EU to increase exports in the outer period, reaching 1.27 mmt in 2010. Also, the EU signed a zero-for-zero agreement with Central and Eastern European Countries. Recovery in the pork sector of the CEECs toward the end of the projection period enables the region to maintain its net export position. Driven by rising demand in both the domestic and export markets, pork production in Brazil grows an average of 2.28 percent annually. Brazil has encouraged increased investment in swine production in the Central-West region through fiscal incentives. This area is close to feed grain sources. Brazil is aggressively marketing its agricultural exports through market promotions and is penetrating new markets such as Russia. With domestic consumption growing 2.02 percent annually, Brazil is able to increase its exports from 84 tmt in 2000 to 163 tmt in 2010, representing a doubling of its market share from 3 to 6 percent. Poultry In most countries, poultry consumption grows faster than consumption of other meats over the next decade. In a number of countries, chicken consumption approaches or sometimes exceeds consumption of traditional leading meat products, such as beef in the Americas or pork in Europe. Half of the growth in per capita meat consumption in the next decade is accounted for by the increase in poultry consumption. This growth is driven by the fact that poultry prices are often lower than other meat prices and by the perception that poultry meat is healthier than other meats. Made possible by ready availability of advanced production technology, world poultry production responds to the growing demand by increasing 27 percent, and world poultry trade grows 20 percent. The rapid growth in world poultry production alleviates pressure on world poultry prices, which show a sustained annual increase of only 0.36 percent throughout the next decade. China and Russia account for 37 percent of world broiler imports. Whereas U.S. consumers prefer chicken parts with white meat (for example, chicken breast), Chinese consumers prefer the lower-cost cuts with dark meat, such as the back, neck, and feet. Driven by the complementary nature of demand for chicken parts in China and the United States, China’s chicken imports grow 1.10 percent annually, from 770 tmt in 2000 to 859 tmt in 2010. Russia’s poultry imports increase 3.36 percent in 2001. But net imports decline in the medium term, as improvements in production infrastructure boost domestic production, especially in larger broiler operations. Russia’s net imports of broiler meat total 901 tmt in 2010. Japan and Hong Kong account for an additional 37 percent of world broiler imports. Production of broilers in Japan continues to decline while consumption expands, causing net imports to rise 18 percent in the next decade. Hong Kong’s demand for chicken meat is largely met by imports. Also, imports into Hong Kong are often reexported to the Mainland. Total broiler imports into Hong Kong increase 17 percent over the baseline. With similar patterns of macroeconomic and population growth driving consumption, the combined net imports of Indonesia, Philippines, and South Korea increase from 81 tmt in 2000 to 173 tmt in 2010. On the other hand, Mexico’s broiler imports are stable to slightly declining, with the average level of imports 4 percent lower than that
Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 15
in 1999. Broiler imports in 2000 were higher than normal, as additional supplies were needed after the Newcastle disease outbreak. The U.S. continues to show growth in broiler production, consumption, and trade over the next decade. With abundant feed grains, efficient production, and adequate transport and storage infrastructure, the United States increases its exports 1.14 percent annually. However, strong competition from Brazil reduces the U.S. share of broiler trade slightly in the second half of the decade, from 59 to 58 percent. Driven by strong domestic and export demand, Brazil’s poultry sector makes significant gains in the next decade. Fiscal incentives and subsidies from local governments attract new investments in broiler production near the grain surplus Central-West regions. Brazilian net exports of broiler meat grow 3.68 percent annually, as production growth of 2.52 percent outpaces consumption growth of 2.33 percent. Although Argentina imposed a minimum import price on poultry imports from Brazil, the steady devaluation of the Brazilian currency and renewed access to the Chinese market following the Newcastle outbreak raise its share of the export market from 18 to 26 percent. The EU share of the international poultry market declines from 15 to 9 percent. During the first three years of the baseline, a greater proportion of poultry production is retained for the domestic market, as consumers substitute for beef in response to the BSE scare. Broiler exports grow 1.09 percent annually after 2003 as beef consumption recovers and as feed prices remain low following implementation of Agenda 2000 reforms in the grain sector. Thailand’s broiler exports are hurt by the appreciation of its currency in the first half of the decade. Growth over the remainder of the baseline gives Thailand an 18 percent overall increase in broiler exports between 2000 and 2010, enabling Thailand to maintain a stable 6 percent share of the international market. Dairy After stagnating in the 1990s, milk production in modeled countries began increasing in 1998. Over the next decade, milk production increases 9.69 percent despite a 0.68 percent reduction in total dairy cattle inventories. Just over 57 percent of the 38.2 mmt increase in milk production occurs in North and South American countries. U.S. milk production rises 12.2 mmt over the baseline, while cow numbers fall 0.8 percent annually, implying a 1.8 percent annual increase in output per cow. Productivity in Brazil’s dairy sector rises 2.5 percent annually, which is coupled with a 3.7 percent increase in cow numbers over the next decade to produce a 7.4 mmt increase in milk output. Milk production in Mexico and Argentina increases 3.1 mmt and 2.2 mmt, respectively, through combined growth in cow inventories and productivity per cow. With the exception of Argentina, which exports roughly 32 percent of its increase in milk production in the form of dairy products, the vast majority of the growth in milk production in the Americas over the next decade remains in domestic markets to satisfy demands for fresh milk and dairy products. In contrast, the bulk of the combined 3.4 mmt increase in milk production in New Zealand and Australia is destined for export markets. New Zealand milk production increases 1.5 percent annually over the baseline, and 94 percent of the increase is exported as cheese and WMP. Australian milk production grows less than 1 percent annually from 2001 onward, as the industry rationalizes current capacity in response to recent deregulation. More than 70 percent of the growth in Australian milk production is used to satisfy increases in domestic consumption of fluid milk, cheese, and fresh dairy products. Substantial growth in milk production also occurs in Poland, India, China, and the European Union. International prices for NFD and WMP increased 44.5 and 22.4 percent respectively in 2000. Powder prices decline 4 to 5 percent in 2001, as powder supplies increase in response to higher prices. From 2003 onward, powder prices rise an average of 1.7 percent annually. The strength in powder markets is driven by a recovery in Asian demand for milk proteins coupled with a strong demand for cheese in several countries, which keeps additional milk from flowing to powder plants. In addition, WTO commitments to reduce export subsidies limit the ability of the EU and U.S. to increase milk powder exports. A strong increase in cheese exports from Australia and the EU contributed to the 2.9 percent decline in international cheese prices in 2000. Likewise, a 21 percent increase in New Zealand butter exports played a role in the 7.7 percent decline in butter prices. Butter and cheese prices rise steadily after 2002, increasing, respectively, 2.2 and 3.1 percent annually.
16 / Overview: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Russian butter imports remain below 50 tmt until economic recovery begins to have a significant impact on consumption in 2006. Russian butter imports rise to 79 tmt by the end of the baseline. Mexican butter imports decline 20 tmt as greater domestic production reduces excess demand. Increased butter demand in developing Asia and other countries in the rest of the world increases butter imports 34 tmt over the baseline. European countries supply the bulk of the growth in butter trade, with the EU and Poland showing the largest increases in exports. However, butter exports from the EU remain well below their quantity limit for subsidized exports. EU butter stocks rise gradually until the implementation of the Berlin Accord reforms in the EU dairy sector in 2005. With substantial stocks and weak international demand, the EU domestic butter price declines 1.5 percent annually from 2000 to 2005. As the intervention price for butter is lowered, prices decline more than 3 percent annually, stabilizing at 3.04 euro per kg in 2007. Per capita cheese demand in modeled countries grows an average of 1.6 percent annually over the next decade, for a total increase in cheese consumption of 2.18 kg per person. The United States and the European Union account for 68 percent of the total increase in cheese consumption. Argentina, Brazil, and Russia account for an additional 16.4 percent of cheese consumption growth. Excluding Russia, domestic producers supply virtually all of the additional cheese consumed in these countries. Growing cheese demand in Russia is met by imports, largely from the EU and Eastern European countries. Cheese exports from Australia and New Zealand grow roughly 35 percent over the baseline. Exports from Oceania satisfy the 21 tmt increase in Japanese cheese imports and the 84 tmt growth in cheese imports by other countries in Asia and the rest of the world. International cheese prices rise steadily over the baseline, reaching $2,253 per metric ton in 2010. Supplies in international NFD markets remain tight in the coming decade, keeping prices above $1,700 per metric ton for the entire projection period. Dairy processors in New Zealand shift milk toward WMP and cheese early in the baseline, which reduces NFD exports; however, persistent growth in NFD prices brings New Zealand exports back to 2000 levels by the end of the baseline. Australian NFD exports decline 44 tmt from 2000 to 2010, as more milk is shifted into cheese production. Strong feed demand and exports reduced NFD stocks in the EU by more than 40 percent in 2000. With short supplies, EU NFD prices remain well above intervention levels. Likewise, despite elimination of the dairy support program in 2002, U.S. NFD prices remain above world prices. Exports from both the EU and the U.S. are limited by WTO export subsidy commitments. Poland seizes the opportunity to recover some of its NFD exports lost following the Russian economic crisis and increases its exports by 43 tmt over the baseline. Argentina and India also increase NFD shipments modestly. Mexican NFD imports decline slightly as a result of substantial growth in milk production, a significant portion of which is enticed into milk powder production by the favorable prices. Total NFD trade remains stable over the baseline at roughly 900 tmt. WMP trade grows a modest 17 percent over the next decade. Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand are able to supply the increased demand in WMP imports. New Zealand’s exports of WMP increase 144 tmt by 2010, accounting for two-thirds of the total growth in trade. More than half of the increase in New Zealand’s WMP exports occurs in 2001. Argentine WMP exports grow 1.8 percent annually to reach 174 tmt by 2010. Some of Argentina’s exports are shipped to Brazil, where WMP imports rise 2.2 percent annually. Australian WMP exports rise 10 percent over the baseline, and competition of milk supplies and subsidy allocations keep EU WMP exports stagnant at 525 tmt. Developing countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa represented by the “rest of world” aggregate increase WMP imports by 17 percent over the baseline, reaching 1.28 mmt in 2010.
BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS AND PRICE PROJECTIONS
18 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Macroeconomic and Policy Assumptions The U.S. economy grows 2.7 percent in 2001 and then resumes stronger growth in subsequent years, averaging 3.71 percent annually. All NAFTA member countries exhibit solid economic growth, and their agricultural trade deepens. FAPRI projections incorporate provisions of the 1996 U.S. Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act, which are assumed to be extended indefinitely. Marketing loan rates for food grains, feed grains, oilseeds, and cotton are held at their maximum levels as set forth in the FAIR Act. The loan rate for sugarcane is set at $0.18 per pound of raw sugar, and the rate for sugar beets is set at $0.23 per pound on a refined sugar basis. As mandated by the FAIR Act, the loan rate for peanuts is fixed at $0.305 per pound. CRP is continued in the current FAPRI projections, with some contracts allowed to expire, other contracts reenrolled, and new contracts allowed by the secretary of agriculture. After a decline in 1999, the ability to write new contracts pushes the total number of acres upward, reaching 36.2 million acres by 2005. The dairy support program is extended per current legislation through 2001, but the program is eliminated in 2002. The FAIR Act legislates maximum spending under the Export Enhancement Program (EEP). The baseline does not assume EEP is used during the projection period. The baseline incorporates the provisions of the emergency spending packages passed by Congress in 1998, 1999, and 2000, because direct payments and disaster assistance affect farm income in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001.
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 19
Measures of U.S. Inflation Percent 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Consumer Price Index
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Producer Price Index
U.S. Prime Interest Rate Percent 11
10
9
8
7
6
5 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
20 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Crude Oil, Average Refiner's Acquisition Costs Percent 80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Conservation Reserve Program Million Acres 40
30
20
10
0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 21
AMTA and Market Loss Assistance Payments Includes 1998 and 1999 Spending Package Dollars per Bushel 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Wheat
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Corn
U.S. Crop Loan Rates Dollars per Bushel 6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99 Wheat
2000/01 Corn
2002/03
2004/05
Soybeans
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
22 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Economic Pro ojections and Program Provisions 2000
2001
2002
5.1
2.7
4.4
Real Cons. Expenditure *
3.8
2.2
CPI, All Urban Consumers *
3.4
2.6
PPI, All Commodities *
5.5
0.8
United States Real GDP *
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
(Percentage Change From Previous Year) 4.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.6
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.2
-0.1
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.4
Unemployment Rate
-4.7
9.1
4.3
-8.6
-4.1
-0.8
2.6
4.4
1.8
0.1
-3.2
-3.2
3-Month Treasury Bill Rate
25.5
-6.3
-10.3
1.5
9.3
2.2
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
Moody's AAA Corp. Rate
11.1
-16.5
-5.0
5.1
8.6
3.0
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.4
Unit Non-Farm Labor Costs
0.7
2.2
0.3
1.4
1.9
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
77.8
78.8
82.2
92.5
92.5
1.7
2.9
4.1
4.3
4.3
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) NA NA NA NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46
0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46
0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46
0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46
0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46
Federal Budget Surplus Unified Budget Basis Refiners Cost of Oil Milk Support Price
PFC/MLA Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Wheat Rice Cotton Loan Rates Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Soybeans Wheat Rice
69.8
67.8
56.4
58.2
(Billion U.S. Dollars) 65.4 74.3 76.8
64.7
-5.6
-8.7
-4.9
-4.7
(Percent) -2.3 1.5
9.90
9.90
NA
NA
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0.70 0.83 0.52 0.06 1.22
0.27 0.32 0.20 0.02 0.47
0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46
0.26 0.31 0.20 0.02 0.46
5.44
2.10
2.04
2.04
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 2.04 2.04 2.04 2.04
2.04
2.04
2.04
2.04
(U.S. Dollars per Pound) 0.056 0.056 0.056 0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.056
1.89 1.70 1.69 1.12 5.26 2.58
1.89 1.70 1.68 1.12 5.26 2.58
1.89 1.71 1.66 1.12 5.26 2.58
1.89 1.71 1.65 1.12 5.26 2.58
1.89 1.71 1.65 1.12 5.26 2.58
04/05
05/06
06/07
(U.S. Dollars per Bushel) 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.46 0.46 0.46
0.150
0.057
0.056
0.056
1.89 1.71 1.62 1.16 5.26 2.58
1.89 1.71 1.65 1.21 5.26 2.58
1.89 1.69 1.71 1.14 5.26 2.58
1.89 1.69 1.74 1.10 5.26 2.58
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
6.50
0.519 0.305
0.519 0.305
0.519 0.305
0.519 0.305
(U.S. Dollars per Bushel) 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.70 1.71 1.70 1.76 1.73 1.70 1.11 1.10 1.10 5.26 5.26 5.26 2.58 2.58 2.58
Cotton Peanuts
0.519 0.305
0.519 0.305
0.519 0.305
0.519 0.305
(U.S. Dollars per Pound) 0.519 0.519 0.519 0.519 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.305
Sugarcane
18.00
18.00
18.00
18.00
(U.S. Cents per Pound) 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00
18.00
18.00
18.00
18.00
31.4
33.5
34.5
35.5
(Million Acres) 36.2 36.2
36.2
36.2
36.2
36.2
Conservation Reserve
36.0
g year. * Percentage change from preceding Source: International Financial Statitistics March 2000 and Projections after 1999 are from DRI.
36.2
24 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Macroeconomic Assumptions World economic activity grows an average of 3.43 percent annually over the next decade, with continued economic recovery occurring in most countries in Asia and Latin America as well as in Russia. Japanese real GDP grows an average of 1.43 percent annually during the coming decade. This is the lowest projected growth path among industrialized nations. World population grows an average of 1.2 percent annually over the next decade, stimulating demand for agricultural products. The population growth rate is steadily falling; therefore, its positive impact on demand diminishes over time. Africa remains the continent with the highest population growth rate, above 2 percent annually, but lack of purchasing power prevents that population growth from translating into large increases in demand for food. The euro appreciates slowly but steadily in the coming decade, eventually reaching a value of U.S.$1.137 per euro in 2010. The yen depreciates in 2001/02 and then moderately appreciates for the remainder of the projection period, reaching 110 yen per U.S. dollar in 2010/11. Currencies of all major exporting countries appreciate relative to the U.S. dollar, except the Brazilian real, which depreciates more than 4 percent annually. Countries of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) are consolidating their growth and are expected to achieve an average rate of growth of 4.3 percent in the coming decade. Russia and the Ukraine experience strong price inflation, averaging 15 percent annually over the baseline Virtually all Asian countries experienced strong economic growth in 2000, and this strong growth continues in the coming decade, with annual rates of increase between 4 and 6 percent. Economic growth in China averages more than 7 percent annually during the baseline. The economic outlook for Latin America is bullish. The Brazilian economy grows 4.3 percent in 2001 with a modest 5 percent devaluation of its currency. The outlook for most major countries in the region is similar, except for significant price inflation and currency devaluations in Paraguay and Venezuela. As a region, Latin American real GDP grows 4.6 percent annually in the next decade. During the projection period, African and Middle Eastern countries included in the FAPRI baseline grow at healthy rates, avoiding price inflation and currency devaluation. Exceptions to this rule are Egypt and Nigeria, which experience both significant price inflation and currency devaluation. Price levels in Iran also soar in the coming decade.
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 25
Developing Real GDP Growth Rates Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998 World
2000
2002
Developed
2004
2006
2008
2010
2006
2008
2010
Developing
Recovery of Real GDP Growth In Crisis Countries Percent 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 1990
1992
1994 Russia
1996
1998 Thailand
2000 Korea
2002
2004 Brazil
Indonesia
26 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Exchange Rate Projections U.S. Dollar per Euro
U.S. Dollar per Real
1.60
1.8
1.40
1.6 1.4
1.20
1.2 1.00 1.0 0.80 0.8 0.60 0.6 0.40
0.4
0.20
0.2
0.00
0.0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000 EU
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Brazil
Population Growth Rates Percent 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 1990
1992
1994
1996 Asia
1998
2000
Latin America
2002 Africa
2004
2006 Developed
2008
2010
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 27
Real GDP Projections s 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
World
4.3
3.5
3.7
(Percentage Change from Previous Year) 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
Developed Market Economies Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand United States
4.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 3.9 5.1
3.7 3.2 3.1 1.3 3.5 2.7
3.3 3.0 2.9 1.6 3.1 4.4
3.1 3.7 2.7 1.6 2.9 4.6
2.9 3.6 2.4 1.5 2.6 3.6
2.8 3.1 2.5 1.4 2.6 3.5
2.9 3.1 2.5 1.3 2.6 3.4
2.9 3.1 2.4 1.4 2.5 3.3
2.9 3.1 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.5
2.9 3.0 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.4
2.8 2.9 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.6
2.8 2.9 2.3 1.4 2.5 3.6
Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia
4.5 4.1 2.8 5.7 5.2 2.2 3.0 4.6
5.0 5.0 4.3 4.8 5.5 5.3 4.5 4.5
5.4 5.3 5.9 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.0 4.6
5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.9 5.5 5.0
5.0 4.5 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.1 5.4
4.8 4.8 4.9 5.6 4.2 5.8 6.0 5.2
4.5 4.1 4.9 4.6 4.3 5.4 4.3 4.9
4.6 4.0 4.9 4.5 4.6 5.5 4.1 5.0
4.5 4.1 4.8 4.4 4.4 5.7 3.7 5.4
4.6 3.8 4.8 4.5 4.5 5.8 4.7 5.3
4.8 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.6 4.8 4.4
4.8 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.6 4.8 4.4
Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine
5.5 5.9 4.2
4.4 4.5 3.9
4.3 4.1 4.4
4.4 4.0 4.7
4.2 3.9 4.1
4.0 3.5 3.7
4.0 3.6 3.9
3.6 3.1 4.0
3.8 3.4 4.1
4.8 4.8 4.3
5.8 6.1 4.4
5.8 6.1 4.4
Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania
6.1 4.7 4.8
6.0 5.5 5.2
5.8 4.8 5.5
5.9 4.5 5.3
5.8 4.3 5.0
5.5 4.3 4.7
5.2 4.2 4.5
5.1 4.1 4.3
5.1 4.1 4.1
5.1 4.1 3.9
5.0 3.9 4.0
5.0 3.9 4.0
Other Economies Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam
8.1 5.8 5.8 4.5 6.8 4.8 4.1 8.9 6.5 5.8 5.0
7.7 4.2 5.6 5.1 6.2 4.0 4.7 5.4 5.0 6.2 5.4
7.0 6.1 5.6 6.0 5.5 3.6 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.2 6.2
6.7 5.3 5.8 6.2 5.3 3.9 5.4 5.7 4.3 5.4 6.1
6.6 5.0 5.6 5.9 5.5 3.9 5.6 5.5 4.1 5.4 6.1
6.9 5.0 5.6 6.0 5.5 4.0 5.7 5.4 4.3 5.6 6.0
7.8 4.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 4.4 5.5 5.4 4.7 5.9 6.0
8.1 4.6 5.7 5.3 5.4 4.5 5.4 5.3 4.8 6.2 5.9
7.2 4.4 5.7 5.1 5.4 4.5 5.3 5.3 4.9 6.3 5.9
7.1 4.3 5.7 4.9 5.3 4.5 5.3 5.2 4.9 6.3 5.8
7.0 4.1 5.7 5.0 5.3 4.5 5.2 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.7
7.0 4.1 5.7 5.0 5.3 4.5 5.2 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.7
Latin America Argentina Brazil Columbia Mexico Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela
2.0 3.2 4.1 5.8 3.1 2.0 3.5
4.3 4.2 4.5 3.6 4.2 3.7 5.5
5.0 5.0 4.8 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.7
4.8 5.4 6.1 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.5
4.6 5.1 5.9 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.2
4.6 4.9 5.6 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.2
4.6 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.1 2.8
4.6 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.2 4.1 2.9
4.5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.1 4.1 2.9
4.5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.0 4.1 2.9
4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.0 4.0 2.9
4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.0 4.0 2.9
Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco South Africa Tunisia
3.9 4.4 0.9 3.9 5.5
6.3 5.5 7.0 4.4 5.7
3.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.5
3.2 5.1 4.5 4.5 5.4
3.0 5.3 4.2 4.3 5.3
3.1 4.8 4.5 4.3 5.2
3.8 4.5 4.6 4.0 5.1
4.2 4.5 4.6 4.0 5.0
4.2 4.5 4.6 4.0 4.9
4.2 4.4 4.6 3.9 4.8
4.2 4.4 4.6 3.6 4.7
4.2 4.4 4.6 3.6 4.7
Middle East Iran Israel Saudi Arabia
4.1 3.7 7.5
0.8 4.0 3.4
4.0 4.3 3.2
7.9 4.2 3.5
5.8 4.2 3.7
5.4 4.1 4.1
5.1 4.0 4.3
5.0 3.9 4.7
5.1 3.9 5.3
5.0 3.8 5.7
4.9 3.7 6.0
4.9 3.7 6.0
Source: International Financial Statistics March 2000 and Projections after 2000 are from DRI.
28 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
GDP Deflator Projections (Expressed in Local Currency) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
(Percentage Change from Previous Year) Developed Market Economies Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand United States
5.4 3.3 1.1 -1.7 3.6 2.1
5.4 2.5 2.1 1.0 4.9 2.2
4.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.7
3.5 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0
1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.3
1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 2.4
2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 2.5
2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.6
2.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.7
2.7 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.3 2.8
2.8 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.3 3.0
2.8 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.3 3.0
Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia
15.2 11.1 3.9 9.5 9.1 38.7 10.7 7.8
11.2 6.5 4.5 5.7 6.2 23.6 6.4 5.8
9.4 6.0 5.1 4.6 5.4 20.0 5.4 5.4
7.9 5.7 4.2 4.1 4.8 17.0 5.2 4.8
6.7 5.1 3.4 3.3 4.4 14.5 4.9 4.3
5.6 4.6 2.7 3.1 3.9 12.3 4.7 3.9
5.0 4.4 2.5 2.8 3.5 11.3 3.5 3.5
4.6 4.4 2.4 2.8 3.1 10.4 3.0 3.2
4.3 4.1 1.9 2.8 3.0 9.6 2.7 2.9
4.1 3.8 1.7 2.7 3.0 8.8 2.4 2.7
4.0 3.6 1.6 2.7 3.0 8.1 2.4 2.5
4.0 3.6 1.6 2.7 3.0 8.1 2.4 2.5
Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine
9.4 29.5 28.5
17.4 15.6 24.0
12.4 11.0 18.0
11.0 10.6 15.3
10.9 11.1 13.0
10.9 11.6 9.8
11.3 12.3 9.3
11.7 12.9 8.8
11.8 13.1 8.4
12.1 13.7 7.9
12.5 14.3 7.5
12.5 14.3 7.5
4.1 2.3 1.8
3.8 2.3 2.6
3.4 3.9 2.6
3.3 5.0 2.5
3.1 4.3 2.4
2.9 3.6 2.4
2.7 3.3 2.3
2.7 2.9 2.3
2.7 2.6 2.2
2.7 3.3 2.1
2.7 4.1 2.1
2.7 4.1 2.1
Other Economies Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam
1.5 -2.1 7.2 7.2 3.1 8.2 6.6 2.1 1.7 4.9 4.5
1.9 3.4 8.4 7.3 5.3 9.2 6.5 1.2 3.0 4.3 9.0
3.0 2.4 6.3 7.3 3.9 9.9 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.3 7.9
3.4 2.6 5.8 7.8 0.6 7.7 4.7 3.1 3.0 1.4 7.8
3.5 2.1 5.6 7.3 3.9 7.5 3.7 4.2 3.0 1.7 7.5
3.3 1.8 5.4 7.3 3.9 6.3 4.4 4.6 2.1 1.9 7.3
3.2 1.9 6.0 7.6 3.8 6.3 4.7 4.3 2.2 2.3 7.1
3.2 1.8 6.3 7.9 3.5 6.4 4.8 4.2 2.3 2.2 6.9
3.1 1.7 6.3 7.9 3.2 6.5 4.9 4.1 2.3 2.3 6.8
2.8 1.6 6.3 7.9 2.8 6.6 5.0 4.1 2.3 2.4 6.6
2.7 1.6 6.3 7.5 2.7 6.6 5.1 3.8 2.4 2.5 6.5
2.7 1.6 6.3 7.5 2.7 6.6 5.1 3.8 2.4 2.5 6.5
Latin America Argentina Brazil Columbia Mexico Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela
0.2 8.1 8.5 10.4 12.0 5.1 16.5
3.1 8.9 5.8 8.6 11.8 5.8 12.9
1.8 8.6 5.7 8.8 9.6 7.2 15.1
2.1 8.9 6.1 7.9 9.4 7.5 15.2
1.8 9.2 5.9 5.9 9.0 7.4 13.5
1.6 7.2 5.6 3.7 8.8 7.4 13.0
1.8 7.5 5.3 5.2 8.5 7.3 12.4
2.0 7.5 5.3 4.8 8.2 7.3 11.9
2.0 7.4 5.5 4.8 7.9 7.2 11.4
2.0 7.3 5.6 5.4 7.7 7.1 10.9
2.0 7.3 5.8 5.3 7.5 7.1 10.4
2.0 7.3 5.8 5.3 7.5 7.1 10.4
Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco South Africa Tunisia
19.3 2.0 4.1 7.5 4.8
2.5 6.7 4.0 6.5 6.0
2.0 10.1 3.3 6.2 5.8
1.6 8.1 2.5 5.9 3.7
1.6 6.7 0.9 5.4 3.9
1.5 5.8 2.1 4.8 4.0
2.8 5.6 2.1 4.7 3.8
3.9 5.3 2.2 4.4 3.7
4.7 5.0 2.2 4.4 3.6
5.4 4.7 2.3 4.3 3.6
6.0 4.3 2.4 4.7 3.6
6.0 4.3 2.4 4.7 3.6
Middle East Iran Israel Saudi Arabia
31.4 3.8 5.3
23.9 4.1 -1.1
15.6 3.8 1.1
11.3 3.7 1.1
7.6 3.1 1.1
5.1 2.7 1.0
3.6 2.6 1.3
3.2 2.5 2.0
3.4 2.4 2.3
3.6 2.3 2.6
3.8 2.3 2.8
3.8 2.3 2.8
Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: International Financial Statistics March 2000 and Projections after 2000 are from DRI.
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 29
Exchange Rate Projec ctions (Local Currency per U.S. Dollar) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-1.1 -1.8 15.4 -4.7 11.9
2.4 -1.6 -1.8 7.4 -0.5
-2.3 -3.0 -7.4 0.8 -1.5
(Percentage Change from Previous Year) -3.7 -1.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 0.5 -2.5 -2.7 -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.4 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 -2.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7
-0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.5 -0.7
-0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7
-0.2 -1.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7
-0.2 -1.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7
3.4 7.9 14.7 7.9 33.7 -10.3 19.6
-8.0 -7.0 -3.5 3.1 15.0 0.6 -12.3
-5.3 -4.3 -1.1 3.7 13.7 2.5 -2.6
-1.7 -3.8 -0.2 -1.2 11.9 2.5 0.2
-1.2 -3.8 -1.6 -2.0 9.5 1.9 0.5
-0.7 -0.6 -1.1 -2.7 8.4 -0.7 1.3
-0.7 -0.5 0.2 -3.9 7.3 -0.7 1.5
-0.7 -1.0 -3.1 -2.7 6.5 -0.7 1.2
-0.7 -1.0 -1.5 -1.9 5.7 -0.7 -1.2
-0.7 -3.0 -2.5 -2.5 5.0 -0.7 -0.7
-0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 4.3 -0.7 -0.7
-0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 4.3 -0.7 -0.7
Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine
13.3 34.5
6.4 13.4
10.4 6.0
5.8 8.3
6.5 6.2
7.0 5.0
6.9 4.4
7.2 4.0
5.0 3.6
1.7 3.2
-0.3 2.8
-0.3 2.8
Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania
14.6 1.7 0.0
-16.5 -4.2 0.0
-5.3 -2.7 -5.3
-1.7 -0.8 -1.7
-1.2 -1.2 -1.2
-2.4 -0.7 -0.7
-1.0 -0.7 -0.7
-1.1 -0.7 -0.7
-1.2 -0.7 -0.7
-1.3 -0.7 -0.7
-1.2 -0.7 -0.7
-1.2 -0.7 -0.7
Other Economies Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam
0.0 0.3 4.5 -2.7 0.0 10.5 9.1 -5.7 -3.4 4.9 0.9
0.0 0.1 8.4 2.3 0.0 14.4 2.6 4.8 -1.8 2.0 6.0
5.8 0.0 6.0 -0.8 -11.7 7.9 2.4 4.6 1.2 -1.2 5.1
5.1 0.0 5.2 -2.0 0.5 7.7 1.6 3.0 2.8 -1.2 5.3
-0.3 0.0 4.4 2.4 2.3 4.0 2.9 2.0 0.3 -0.7 5.4
-0.5 0.0 4.1 3.0 1.9 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.2 -0.1 5.6
-0.3 0.0 3.9 1.4 1.6 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.1 5.3
0.4 0.0 3.8 -0.7 1.3 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.2 5.1
0.8 0.0 3.8 -0.8 1.0 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.3 5.0
0.6 0.0 3.8 -0.9 0.7 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.3 4.8
0.5 0.0 3.8 1.6 0.5 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.4 4.7
0.5 0.0 3.8 1.6 0.5 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.4 4.7
Latin America Argentina Brazil Columbia Mexico Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela
0.1 -3.3 4.6 0.2 11.0 6.3 15.0
0.0 6.2 4.6 8.6 6.1 7.7 17.3
0.0 8.2 3.9 8.5 5.8 5.0 14.9
0.0 7.4 4.2 6.3 5.4 4.8 11.7
0.0 7.4 4.6 4.7 5.1 4.8 11.5
0.0 4.4 4.2 3.0 4.8 4.6 10.8
0.0 4.8 3.9 3.5 4.5 4.5 10.2
0.0 4.7 3.6 3.1 4.2 4.4 9.7
0.0 4.3 3.5 2.9 4.0 4.3 9.2
0.0 4.3 3.6 2.8 3.8 4.3 8.8
0.0 4.2 3.6 2.8 3.5 4.2 8.2
0.0 4.2 3.6 2.8 3.5 4.2 8.2
Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco South Africa Tunisia
12.3 3.6 5.7 10.7 9.9
2.9 16.0 -0.5 8.8 -0.3
0.4 8.8 -1.4 6.0 -0.4
0.5 6.8 -3.9 4.6 0.4
0.0 5.1 -0.6 3.8 0.6
0.4 4.4 -0.8 3.4 0.1
1.2 3.7 -0.6 3.0 0.1
2.3 3.4 -0.3 3.1 0.1
3.2 3.1 -0.2 3.2 0.2
3.9 2.7 -0.1 3.3 0.3
4.5 2.4 0.0 3.3 0.2
4.5 2.4 0.0 3.3 0.2
Middle East Iran Israel Saudi Arabia
24.8 -1.4 0.0
6.0 2.9 0.0
4.1 2.8 0.0
2.8 1.9 0.0
1.8 1.1 0.0
1.1 0.6 0.0
0.7 0.2 0.0
0.6 0.2 0.0
0.5 0.2 0.0
0.5 0.2 0.0
0.6 0.1 0.0
0.6 0.1 0.0
Developed Market Economies Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia
Source: International Financial Statistics March 2000 and Projections after 2000 are from DRI.
30 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Population Projec ctions 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
(Percentage Change from Previous Year) 1.20 1.17 1.14 1.12
2008
2009
2010
2011
1.29
1.27
1.25
1.22
1.10
1.08
1.05
1.04
Market Economies Australia Canada European Union Japan New Zealand United States Other Developed
0.51 1.04 1.04 0.26 0.19 1.21 0.89 -0.26
0.50 1.01 1.01 0.24 0.18 1.16 0.91 -0.26
0.49 0.98 0.98 0.23 0.16 1.14 0.90 -0.26
0.48 0.95 0.96 0.22 0.14 1.11 0.89 -0.24
0.46 0.92 0.93 0.20 0.11 1.08 0.87 -0.23
0.44 0.89 0.91 0.18 0.09 1.04 0.86 -0.21
0.43 0.86 0.90 0.16 0.05 1.01 0.85 -0.20
0.41 0.84 0.88 0.14 0.02 0.97 0.84 -0.18
0.39 0.82 0.87 0.12 -0.02 0.94 0.83 -0.17
0.37 0.79 0.85 0.10 -0.06 0.90 0.82 -0.16
0.36 0.77 0.84 0.09 -0.10 0.87 0.81 -0.15
0.35 0.76 0.83 0.07 -0.14 0.84 0.81 -0.15
Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia Other Eastern Europe
0.01 -1.17 -0.09 -0.35 -0.03 -0.21 0.13 0.16 0.76
0.00 -1.14 -0.08 -0.32 -0.03 -0.21 0.13 0.13 0.69
-0.04 -1.12 -0.07 -0.31 -0.02 -0.21 0.14 0.14 0.47
-0.05 -1.09 -0.07 -0.29 -0.01 -0.21 0.14 0.14 0.39
-0.06 -1.08 -0.08 -0.29 0.01 -0.21 0.14 0.13 0.33
-0.06 -1.06 -0.10 -0.30 0.02 -0.21 0.13 0.12 0.31
-0.06 -1.05 -0.12 -0.30 0.03 -0.22 0.13 0.10 0.29
-0.06 -1.04 -0.13 -0.31 0.03 -0.22 0.12 0.08 0.27
-0.07 -1.03 -0.14 -0.31 0.03 -0.22 0.11 0.06 0.26
-0.07 -1.01 -0.16 -0.32 0.03 -0.23 0.10 0.04 0.24
-0.08 -1.00 -0.17 -0.32 0.02 -0.24 0.09 0.02 0.22
-0.09 -0.99 -0.19 -0.33 0.01 -0.25 0.08 0.00 0.21
Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine
-0.12 -0.35 -0.83
-0.10 -0.36 -0.80
-0.07 -0.34 -0.75
-0.03 -0.31 -0.70
0.00 -0.29 -0.67
0.04 -0.26 -0.64
0.08 -0.23 -0.61
0.12 -0.21 -0.56
0.16 -0.19 -0.52
0.19 -0.18 -0.48
0.21 -0.17 -0.45
0.23 -0.17 -0.43
Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania
-0.59 -0.85 -0.29
-0.57 -0.82 -0.28
-0.54 -0.78 -0.26
-0.50 -0.75 -0.24
-0.47 -0.71 -0.22
-0.43 -0.67 -0.19
-0.40 -0.63 -0.16
-0.38 -0.60 -0.13
-0.35 -0.56 -0.10
-0.32 -0.53 -0.07
-0.29 -0.49 -0.04
-0.27 -0.46 -0.01
Other Economies Asia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other Asia
1.54 1.32 0.91 1.77 1.61 1.66 2.05 2.21 2.11 0.95 0.82 0.95 1.51 1.21
1.51 1.29 0.89 1.33 1.58 1.63 2.00 2.16 2.07 0.91 0.81 0.93 1.48 1.18
1.48 1.27 0.88 1.29 1.54 1.59 1.95 2.11 2.03 0.88 0.79 0.90 1.45 1.17
1.45 1.24 0.85 1.24 1.50 1.56 1.90 2.05 1.99 0.84 0.78 0.87 1.43 1.16
1.41 1.20 0.80 1.20 1.47 1.52 1.86 2.00 1.95 0.80 0.77 0.85 1.41 1.15
1.38 1.16 0.76 1.16 1.43 1.48 1.83 1.94 1.91 0.76 0.75 0.82 1.39 1.14
1.35 1.12 0.72 1.12 1.40 1.44 1.81 1.89 1.87 0.72 0.73 0.79 1.36 1.12
1.32 1.10 0.69 1.09 1.37 1.40 1.79 1.85 1.83 0.68 0.71 0.76 1.32 1.11
1.30 1.07 0.66 1.06 1.35 1.36 1.77 1.81 1.79 0.64 0.69 0.72 1.29 1.09
1.27 1.04 0.62 1.04 1.32 1.32 1.75 1.77 1.76 0.61 0.66 0.69 1.26 1.07
1.24 1.01 0.59 1.01 1.30 1.27 1.73 1.72 1.72 0.57 0.64 0.66 1.23 1.05
1.22 0.98 0.57 0.99 1.27 1.24 1.71 1.68 1.69 0.52 0.60 0.62 1.22 1.03
Latin America Argentina Brazil Mexico Paraguay Other Latin America
1.39 1.18 1.00 1.56 2.69 1.64
1.34 1.16 0.93 1.52 2.66 1.60
1.31 1.14 0.89 1.49 2.62 1.57
1.28 1.13 0.86 1.46 2.59 1.54
1.25 1.11 0.82 1.42 2.56 1.50
1.21 1.07 0.78 1.38 2.53 1.47
1.18 1.05 0.75 1.35 2.50 1.44
1.16 1.03 0.73 1.32 2.47 1.42
1.13 1.01 0.70 1.29 2.44 1.39
1.11 0.99 0.68 1.26 2.42 1.36
1.08 0.96 0.65 1.22 2.39 1.34
1.06 0.92 0.63 1.19 2.36 1.31
World
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 31
Population Projec ctions (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco Nigeria South Africa Tunisia Other Africa
2.15 1.79 1.76 1.78 2.74 0.58 1.21 2.37
2.08 1.74 1.72 1.74 2.67 0.38 1.16 2.30
2.02 1.71 1.69 1.70 2.61 0.14 1.14 2.24
1.96 1.67 1.65 1.67 2.54 -0.10 1.11 2.18
Middle East Israel Saudi Arabia Other Near East
1.91 1.74 3.34 1.97
1.86 1.64 3.33 1.92
1.84 1.54 3.32 1.91
1.85 1.44 3.32 1.93
2004
2005
2006
2007
(Percentage Change from Previous Year) 1.89 1.83 1.77 1.73 1.64 1.60 1.58 1.57 1.61 1.57 1.53 1.50 1.64 1.60 1.57 1.55 2.47 2.39 2.32 2.24 -0.34 -0.58 -0.76 -0.88 1.08 1.05 1.03 1.02 2.11 2.05 1.99 1.95
ensus International Data Base, May 10, 2000. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Ce
1.91 1.35 3.32 2.04
1.96 1.26 3.32 2.15
1.96 1.20 3.33 2.15
1.96 1.17 3.33 2.15
2008
2009
2010
2011
1.69 1.54 1.48 1.53 2.17 -1.00 1.02 1.90
1.65 1.52 1.44 1.50 2.09 -1.11 1.00 1.85
1.61 1.50 1.41 1.47 2.02 -1.21 0.99 1.81
1.58 1.48 1.38 1.45 1.97 -1.25 0.97 1.78
1.95 1.15 3.33 2.15
1.94 1.12 3.33 2.14
1.93 1.09 3.33 2.12
1.91 1.07 3.31 2.10
32 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Agricultural Policy Assumptions The 1999 Berlin Accord on the Agenda 2000 reforms of the EU’s CAP brings substantial changes in grains, oilseeds, and livestock. Policy changes affecting dairy are more superficial. The EU cereal intervention price was reduced 7.5 percent in 2000/01 and will decline an additional 7.5 percent in 2001/02. Cereal producers will be partially compensated for the reduction in price support by increasing compensation payments from 54.34 to 63 euro per metric ton. The base rate for compulsory set-aside is 10 percent through the 2008/09 marketing year and is reduced to 5 percent for the remainder of the baseline. Direct payments to EU oilseed producers are progressively reduced to the level for cereals by the 2002/03 marketing year. Protein crops continue to receive a direct payment of 9.5 euro per metric ton in addition to the basic direct payment. The EU beef intervention price is reduced by 20 percent over a three-year period. In July 2002, the intervention price is replaced by a beef basic price of 2224 euro per metric ton, and a private storage aid scheme is introduced. Lower beef prices are partly offset by a phased increase in the special premium for steers, the special premium for bulls, and the suckler cow premium (300, 210, and 200 euro per head, respectively). Slaughter premiums of 80 euro per adult animal and 50 euro per calf are introduced. Producer premiums face some regional caps, which can be supplemented nationally up to a limit established for each country. The ongoing European BSE crisis has sharply decreased European beef demand and induced the continuation of the Over Thirty Month Slaughter Scheme (OTMS) in the U.K. and the introduction of animal destruction schemes in the rest of the EU. These destruction schemes moderate the short-run decline in beef prices. The current EU milk quota system is retained under Agenda 2000. In 2001, quotas for Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, and Northern Ireland are increased. Quotas for all countries are increased by 1.5 percent over the three-year period beginning in 2005. Butter and SMP intervention prices are reduced by 15 percent in three equal steps beginning in 2005. Price reductions will be offset by the introduction of a payment of 17.24 euro per metric ton of milk under quota. On July 1, 2000, the Australian Dairy Market Support scheme was dismantled, freeing farmgate prices to be determined by market forces. To assist the adjustment of dairy farmers to the new economic environment, the Australian government introduced an AU$1.78 Dairy Industry Adjustment Program (DIAP), which is funded by an 11 cent per liter levy on consumer purchases of market milk. Payments to producers under DIAP are spread out over eight years and are based on 1998/99 production levels. The current dairy support program in Canada provides market price support for butter and NFD and is assumed to remain intact for the baseline period. The two-tiered pricing system that reduced the cost of milk processed for exported products is eliminated in accordance with recent WTO rulings. The UR of the WTO continues to have a significant impact on agricultural trade, especially through disciplinary actions placed on export subsidies and market access. The greatest impacts occur in markets for wheat, coarse grains, meats, and dairy products. Industrialized members of the WTO implemented the last URAA concessions in 2000, while developing members conclude implementation in 2004. After 2004, all WTO assumptions are held constant until 2010/11, even though further policy concessions are likely to be negotiated in the new round of the WTO. FAPRI projections do not incorporate any conjecture regarding possible policy changes resulting from the ongoing round of WTO negotiations. Likewise, FAPRI projections do not assume China accedes to the WTO during the baseline, nor do they presume enlargement of the EU to include Central and Eastern European countries.
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 33
Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Crops 00/01 United States Policy Prices Corn Loan Wheat Loan Barley Loan Rice Loan Cotton Loan Soybean Loan Cane Loan Export Enhancement Program Program Expenditure Wheat Barley Conservation Reserve Program European Union Policy Prices Cereal Intervention Rice Intervention White Sugar Intervention Sugar Beet Basic Price Cereals Compensatory Payment
01/02
74 95 74 143 1,145 193 397
02/03
74 95 76 143 1,145 193 397
03/04
74 95 79 143 1,145 193 397
04/05
74 95 80 143 1,145 193 397
05/06
06/07
07/08
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 74 74 74 95 95 95 81 79 78 143 143 143 1,145 1,145 1,145 193 193 193 397 397 397
08/09
09/10
10/11
74 95 78 143 1,145 193 397
74 95 77 143 1,145 193 397
74 95 76 143 1,145 193 397
74 95 76 143 1,145 193 397
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
(Euro per Metric Ton) 101.3 101.3 101.3 315.9 315.9 315.9 631.9 631.9 631.9 47.7 47.7 47.7
101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7
101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7
101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7
101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7
(Million U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) 0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0 0 0 (Million Hectares) 14.6 14.6
12.7
13.6
14.0
14.4
110.3 315.9 631.9 47.7
101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7
101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7
101.3 315.9 631.9 47.7
54.3
58.7
63.0
63.0
63.0
63.0
63.0
63.0
63.0
63.0
14.4 10.8
14.4 10.8
14.4 10.8
14.4 10.8
63.0
63.0
63.0
63.0
63.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
(Yen per Metric Ton) 292,950 291,950 290,950
289,950
289,950
289,950
289,950
63.0
Subsidized Export Limits Wheat Coarse Grains
15.6 11.4
14.4 10.8
14.4 10.8
14.4 10.8
(Million Metric Tons) 14.4 14.4 14.4 10.8 10.8 10.8
Production Aid Oilseeds
81.7
75.3
63.0
63.0
(Euro per Ton) 63.0 63.0
5,482
5,482
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
296,650
295,850
294,950
293,950
103 6,102
128 6,102
154 6,102
180 6,102
205 6,102
205 6,102
205 6,102
205 6,102
205 6,102
205 6,102
141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3
141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3
141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3
141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3
(Percent ad valorem) 141.3 141.3 141.3 141.3 141.3 141.3 163.9 163.9 163.9 141.3 141.3 141.3
141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3
141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3
141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3
141.3 141.3 163.9 141.3
(Thousand Hectares) Oilseed Max. Guaranteed Area Set-aside Rate * Crops Japan Policy Prices Rice Resale (dom. prod.) South Korea nt Minimum Import Access Commitmen Rice Corn
10.0
(Percent) 10.0
205 6,102
Import Tariffs China Wheat Corn Barley Rice
on for small producers. * Average set-aside prior to exemptio
34 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other Assumptions s for Crops 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
China Swine Backyard Feed Efficiency Improvement Production Share Compound Feed Share
-0.5 78.1 8.6
-0.5 76.5 8.7
-0.5 75.0 8.7
(Percent Change from Previous Year) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 73.5 72.0 70.6 69.2 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7
-0.5 67.8 8.7
-0.5 66.4 8.7
-0.5 65.1 8.7
-0.5 63.8 8.7
Specialized Household and Commercial Feed Efficiency Improvement Production Share Compound Feed Share
-1.0 21.9 34.8
-1.0 23.5 34.8
-1.0 25.0 34.8
-1.0 26.5 34.9
-1.0 28.0 34.9
-1.0 29.4 34.9
-1.0 30.8 35.0
-1.0 32.2 35.0
-1.0 33.6 35.1
-1.0 34.9 35.1
-1.0 36.2 35.1
Poultry Commercial Feed Efficiency Improvement Production Share Compound Feed Share
-1.5 44.9 70.0
-1.5 46.0 70.1
-1.5 47.0 70.2
-1.5 48.1 70.3
-1.5 49.1 70.3
-1.5 50.2 70.4
-1.5 51.2 70.5
-1.5 52.1 70.5
-1.5 53.1 70.6
-1.5 54.0 70.7
-1.5 54.9 70.8
Village Feed Efficiency Improvement Production Share Compound Feed Share
-0.5 55.1 30.2
-0.5 54.0 30.2
-0.5 53.0 30.2
-0.5 51.9 30.2
-0.5 50.9 30.3
-0.5 49.8 30.3
-0.5 48.8 30.3
-0.5 47.9 30.4
-0.5 46.9 30.4
-0.5 46.0 30.4
-0.5 45.1 30.5
Aquaculture Feed Efficiency Improvement Compound Feed Share
-0.5 60.3
-0.5 60.4
-0.5 60.4
-0.5 60.5
-0.5 60.5
-0.5 60.6
-0.5 60.7
-0.5 60.7
-0.5 60.8
-0.5 60.8
-0.5 60.9
Dairy Feed Efficiency Improvement Specialized Backyard
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
-2.0 -0.5
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 35
Agricultural Policy Assumptions for Livestock and Dairy Products 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
3,242 1,510
3,013 1,510
2,780 1,510
2,780 1,510
(Euro per Metric Ton) 2,780 2,780 2,780 1,510 1,510 1,510
2,780 1,510
2,780 1,510
2,780 1,510
2,780 1,510
GATT Maximum Subsidized Exports Beef Pork Poultry
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
Milk Delivery Quota: E-15
118
119
119
119
(Million Metric Tons) 119 119 120
120
120
120
120
(Euro per Metric Ton) 310 301 284 3,282 3,200 3,036 2,055 2,004 1,901
266 2,872 1,798
257 2,790 1,747
257 2,790 1,747
257 2,790 1,747
0
0
0
0
0
European Union Policy Prices Beef Intervention Pork Basic
Target Price for Milk Intervention Price for Butter Intervention Price for SMP SMP Feed Subsidy GATT Maximum Subsidized Exports Butter SMP Cheese Other Milk Products Canada Target Price for Industrial Milk Support Price, Butter Support Price, NFD
2005
822 444 286
310 3,282 2,055
310 3,282 2,055
310 3,282 2,055
310 3,282 2,055
58
0
0
0
408 279 332 981
399 273 321 958
399 273 321 958
399 273 321 958
(Thousand Metric Tons) 399 399 399 273 273 273 321 321 321 958 958 958
399 273 321 958
399 273 321 958
399 273 321 958
399 273 321 958
56
57
58
59
(Canadian Cents per Liter) 59 60 61
62
63
64
65
5.54 4.61
5.61 4.70
5.68 4.84
5.76 4.92
(Canadian Dollars per Kilogram) 5.85 5.90 5.95 4.97 5.04 5.08
6.00 5.16
6.06 5.23
6.13 5.31
6.19 5.39
0
0
36 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Agricultural Policy Assumptions A for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Argentina Beef Pork Broiler
0 11 27
0 11 27
0 11 27
0 11 27
Brazil Beef Pork Broiler
13 13 39
1 13 38
1 13 37
1 13 36
1 13 35
China VAT Beef Pork Poultry Lamb-Mutton Egg Fish
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
Czech Republic Beef Cattle Pork Swine Broiler
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
Hungary Beef Pork Poultry
25 15 39
25 15 39
Indonesia Beef Pork Broiler Lamb
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0 11 27
0 11 27
0 11 27
0 11 27
0 11 27
1 13 35
1 13 35
1 13 35
1 13 35
1 13 35
1 13 35
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
17 45 20 20 23 25 45
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
34 61 27 23 43
25 15 35
25 15 35
25 15 35
25 15 35
25 15 35
25 15 35
25 15 35
25 15 35
25 15 35
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
8 20 5 20
Import Tariffs (Percent ad valorem) 0 0 11 11 27 27
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 37
Agricultural Policy Assumptions A for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
39 4 9
39 4 9
39 4 9
39 4 9
550 505
547 521
547 540
South Korea Beef Beef: Import mark-up Pork Broiler
42 0 25 20
42 0 25 20
Latvia Beef Pork Poultry
30 45 30
Lithuania Beef Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Percent ad valorem) 39 39 4 4 9 9
39 4 9
39 4 9
39 4 9
39 4 9
39 4 9
547 547
(Yen per Kilogram) 547 547 549 555
547 559
547 565
547 570
547 576
547 583
41 0 25 20
41 0 25 20
(Percent ad valorem) 40 40 0 0 25 25 20 20
40 0 25 20
40 0 25 20
40 0 25 20
40 0 25 20
40 0 25 20
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 45 30
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
30 30 25
0 6 148
0 4 99
0 2 49
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
New Zealand Pork Poultry
9 18
9 18
9 18
9 18
9 18
9 18
9 18
9 18
9 18
9 18
9 18
Philippines Beef Pork Poultry
49 30 60
47 30 60
44 30 60
42 30 60
40 40 60
40 40 60
40 40 60
40 40 60
40 40 60
40 40 60
40 40 60
Poland Beef Pork Poultry
30 30 30
30 30 60
30 30 30
30 30 30
30 30 30
30 30 30
30 30 30
30 30 30
30 30 30
30 30 30
30 30 30
Import Tariffs Japan Beef Pork Poultry Pork Import Price Pork Ceiling Price
Mexico Beef Pork Poultry
38 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Agricultural Policy Assumptions A for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
6,424 3,994 10,367
7,312 4,559 11,203
8,239 5,358 12,428
8,787 5,307 13,149
(Ruble per Kilogram) 9,054 9,397 9,748 5,696 6,293 6,981 14,003 14,937 15,994
10,200 7,507 17,210
10,575 7,894 18,112
10,840 8,270 18,514
10,969 8,399 18,582
Slovakia Beef Pork Poultry
30 28 24
30 28 24
30 28 24
30 28 24
30 28 24
30 28 24
30 28 24
30 28 24
30 28 24
Slovenia Beef Pork Poultry
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
9 11 11
Thailand Beef Pork Poultry
54 49 49
53 47 47
52 44 44
51 42 42
50 40 40
50 40 40
50 40 40
50 40 40
50 40 40
50 40 40
50 40 40
Taiwan Beef Pork Poultry
24 20 40
24 20 40
24 20 40
24 20 40
24 20 40
24 20 40
24 20 40
24 20 40
Ukraine Beef Pork Poultry
1,706 2,565 3,590
2,068 2,962 4,146
2,237 3,389 4,745
2,442 3,650 5,110
(Hryvnias per Metric Ton) 2,510 2,555 2,587 3,976 4,290 4,587 5,566 6,006 6,422
2,624 4,855 6,797
2,683 5,084 7,118
2,790 5,283 7,396
2,912 5,461 7,646
Canada Beef Poultry NAFTA Min. Access
91 64
91 67
91 68
91 71
(Thousand Metric Ton) 91 91 91 73 74 75
91 77
91 78
91 80
91 81
Czech Republic Beef Pork Poultry
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
11 25 3
European Union Pork
76
76
76
76
76
Hungary Beef Pork Poultry
76
76
76
76
76
76
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
14 20 11
306
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Import Tariffs Russia Beef Pork Poultry
(Percent ad valorem) 30 30 28 28 24 24
(New Taiwan Dollar per Kilogram) 24 24 24 20 20 20 40 40 40
Import Access Commitment
South Korea Beef
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 39
Agricultural Policy Assumptions A for Livestock and Dairy Products (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
84 113
87 117
87 120
87 0
(Thousand Metric Ton) 87 87 87 0 0 0
87 0
87 0
87 0
87 0
Philippines Beef Pork Poultry
5 44 19
5 47 20
5 49 21
5 52 22
6 54 24
6 54 24
6 54 24
6 54 24
6 54 24
6 54 24
6 54 24
Poland Beef Pork Poultry
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
37 60 20
Slovakia Beef Pork Poultry
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
4 10 4
Taiwan Beef Pork Poultry
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
5 14 20
Import Access Commitment Mexico Pork Poultry
Maximum Subsidized Exportt Commitment Czech Republic Beef Pork Poultry
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
50 10 23
European Union Beef Pork Poultry
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
822 444 286
Hungary Beef Pork Poultry
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
28 35 111
Poland Beef Pork Poultry
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
0 81 13
Slovakia Beef Pork Poultry
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
28 5 11
40 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Commodity Price Projections P 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Wheat FOB U.S. Gulf CIF Rotterdam Canadian Thunder Bay Australian Wheat Board
121 143 113 95
130 153 123 103
132 155 123 104
137 161 129 109
150 177 143 121
152 179 145 123
155 182 148 152
159 187 152 152
Rice FOB U.S. Houston FOB Bangkok 5% Parboiled FOB Bangkok 100% B Grade
269 183 192
281 197 207
295 207 218
315 221 234
318 224 236
329 231 244
335 236 249
348 245 259
353 248 262
362 254 269
371 261 276
89 99
97 108
99 110
100 112
102 115
105 117
107 120
110 123
112 125
114 128
118 132
121
128
129
133
134
136
138
139
141
141
144
Sorghum FOB U.S. Gulf
90
92
93
Soybeans FOB U.S. Gulf CIF Rotterdam
96
98
100
103
105
107
110
113
182 205
176 197
177 198
181 203
188 211
194 217
199 223
205 230
211 236
215 241
218 244
Soybean Oil FOB Decatur FOB Rotterdam
314 315
326 321
332 323
347 330
364 338
383 348
403 357
424 367
447 378
463 386
484 395
Soybean Meal FOB Decatur 48% CIF Rotterdam
202 199
194 191
193 190
195 193
200 197
203 200
206 202
209 205
212 208
214 210
215 211
Rapeseed CIF Hamburg Cash Vancouver
190 192
181 180
184 184
184 183
194 197
197 200
204 210
207 214
216 225
217 227
222 233
Rapeseed Oil FOB Rotterdam
328
338
345
358
379
396
419
441
466
486
509
Rapeseed Meal FOB Hamburg
148
142
143
141
147
148
151
150
154
153
153
Sugar FOB Caribbean New York Spot
177 407
185 406
193 401
199 396
204 392
211 388
219 383
221 379
226 375
229 371
235 368
Cotton Cotlook A Index U.S. Farm
1,435 1,237
1,511 1,221
1,533 1,227
1,544 1,238
1,566 1,250
1,588 1,263
1,607 1,278
1,626 1,295
1,645 1,313
1,667 1,332
1,691 1,353
Corn FOB U.S. Gulf CIF Rotterdam Barley FOB Pacific Northwest
04/05
05/06
06/07
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 140 143 146 165 168 172 132 135 138 111 114 117
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 41
Commodity Price Projections P (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,635 1,586 1,538 7,316 7,263 7,260 1,527 1,477 1,429 1,311 1,255 1,208
Beef Nebraska Direct Fed-Steer U.S. Retail Steer Price, A1-A2, Edmonton Australian Export (CIF U.S.)
1,536 6,757 1,438 1,260
1,642 7,002 1,543 1,315
1,676 7,189 1,573 1,345
1,690 7,323 1,584 1,381
Pork Barrows and Gilts National Base 51-52% Lean Equivalent U.S. Retail Ontario Hogs Index
985 5,688 1,110
895 5,678 999
762 5,640 810
914 5,876 1,011
1,006 6,053 1,132
947 6,015 1,049
Chicken U.S. 12-City Wholesale U.S. Retail
1,239 3,419
1,258 3,457
1,264 3,490
1,264 3,504
1,264 3,510
Turkey U.S. Wholesale U.S. Retail
1,554 2,280
1,510 2,280
1,478 2,252
1,480 2,282
272 374 419 135 193
277 384 430 140 200
260 402 448 141 202
Cheese FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Canadian Wholesale Australian Export
1,854 2,555 5,038 2,438
1,844 2,530 5,153 2,431
Butter FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Australian Export
1,325 2,603 1,457
Nonfat Dry Milk FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Australian Export
1,880 2,260 1,935
Milk U.S. All Milk Canadian Target, Industrial Canadian Fluid Milk Australian Industrial Milk Australian Fluid Milk
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1,501 7,237 1,390 1,177
1,482 7,318 1,371 1,169
1,493 7,418 1,381 1,198
1,516 7,614 1,403 1,235
864 5,981 934
936 6,147 1,031
1,011 6,336 1,133
959 6,316 1,059
902 6,307 977
1,260 3,508
1,262 3,532
1,266 3,559
1,269 3,592
1,275 3,604
1,284 3,628
1,493 2,327
1,488 2,323
1,490 2,332
1,499 2,353
1,505 2,371
1,516 2,395
1,520 2,403
273 420 467 143 204
277 435 482 145 207
280 445 492 147 210
283 454 501 148 212
286 464 511 150 215
288 473 520 152 218
291 483 529 155 222
294 497 543 157 226
1,938 2,543 5,344 2,497
1,959 2,676 5,546 2,512
2,002 2,706 5,704 2,542
2,037 2,729 5,802 2,566
2,061 2,758 5,876 2,583
2,097 2,788 5,960 2,609
2,148 2,814 6,028 2,645
2,205 2,845 6,109 2,685
2,254 2,884 6,239 2,719
1,422 2,681 1,536
1,579 2,916 1,665
1,603 3,054 1,685
1,639 3,109 1,714
1,670 3,088 1,740
1,689 3,071 1,756
1,718 3,057 1,780
1,758 3,042 1,813
1,808 3,034 1,854
1,869 3,039 1,903
1,804 2,261 1,860
1,728 1,803 1,784
1,757 1,888 1,813
1,794 1,918 1,849
1,816 1,955 1,871
1,851 1,996 1,906
1,878 2,033 1,933
1,908 2,066 1,963
1,942 2,097 1,996
1,977 2,131 2,031
42 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Policy Prices and World W Prices by Commodity 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
Wheat EU Intervention FOB U.S. Gulf Canadian Thunder Bay Australian Wheat Board
103 121 113 95
99 130 123 103
103 132 123 104
Barley EU Intervention FOB U.S. Pacific Northwest
103 121
99 128
103 129
104 133
106 134
109 136
111 138
Corn EU Intervention FOB U.S. Gulf
103 89
99 97
103 99
104 100
106 102
109 105
Rice FOB Bangkok 5% Parboiled
192
207
218
234
236
Soybeans U.S. Loan Rate FOB U.S. Gulf
193 182
193 176
193 177
193 181
Rapeseed Cash Vancouver
192
180
184
Cotton Cotlook A Index
1,435
1,511
1,533
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
114 152 145 123
115 155 148 152
115 159 152 152
113 139
114 141
115 141
115 144
111 107
113 110
114 112
115 114
115 118
244
249
259
262
269
276
193 188
193 194
193 199
193 205
193 211
193 215
193 218
183
197
200
210
214
225
227
233
1,544
1,566
1,588
1,607
1,626
1,645
1,667
1,691
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton, Marketing Year) 104 106 109 111 113 137 140 143 146 150 129 132 135 138 143 109 111 114 117 121
Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 43
Policy Prices and World W Prices by Commodity (continued) 2000 Beef EU Intervention Japanese Wholesale Dairy beef Wagyu beef Nebraska Direct Fed Steer Price U.S. Retail
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 2,880 2,961 3,033
2,994
2,835
2,823
2,808
8,096 17,013
8,215 17,172
8,408 17,179
8,753 17,587
8,826 17,226
8,774 16,600
1,536 6,757
1,642 7,002
1,676 7,189
1,690 7,323
1,635 7,316
Pork EU Basic Japanese Wholesale U.S. Barrows, Gilts U.S. Retail
1,394 4,417 985 5,688
1,421 3,736 895 5,678
1,533 3,713 762 5,640
1,525 3,968 914 5,876
Broilers EU Producer Japanese Wholesale U.S. 12-City Wholesale U.S. Retail
1,034 1,846 1,239 3,419
1,127 1,830 1,258 3,457
1,180 1,861 1,264 3,490
Butter EU Intervention U.S. CCC Purchase U.S. Wholesale FOB Northern Europe Canadian Support Australian Export
3,029 1,453 2,603 1,325 3,794 1,457
3,086 1,444 2,681 1,422 3,908 1,536
Nonfat Dry Milk EU Intervention U.S. CCC Purchase U.S. Wholesale FOB Northern Europe Canadian Support Australian Export
1,897 2,215 2,260 1,880 3,160 1,935
Cheese U.S. CCC Purchase U.S. Wholesale FOB Northern Europe Canadian Wholesale Australian Export
2007
2008
2009
2010
3,088
3,122
3,144
3,161
8,749 16,001
8,836 15,763
8,940 15,859
9,056 16,275
9,222 16,923
1,586 7,263
1,538 7,260
1,501 7,237
1,482 7,318
1,493 7,418
1,516 7,614
1,564 4,076 1,006 6,053
1,608 3,989 947 6,015
1,648 4,000 864 5,981
1,677 4,164 936 6,147
1,696 4,275 1,011 6,336
1,708 4,252 959 6,316
1,717 4,249 902 6,307
1,144 1,908 1,264 3,504
1,174 1,934 1,264 3,510
1,215 1,959 1,260 3,508
1,262 1,988 1,262 3,532
1,299 2,022 1,266 3,559
1,333 2,054 1,269 3,592
1,368 2,092 1,275 3,604
1,389 2,134 1,284 3,628
3,331 NA 2,916 1,579 4,074 1,665
3,313 NA 3,054 1,603 4,262 1,685
3,398 NA 3,109 1,639 4,414 1,714
3,406 NA 3,088 1,670 4,495 1,740
3,310 NA 3,071 1,689 4,562 1,756
3,188 NA 3,057 1,718 4,642 1,780
3,131 NA 3,042 1,758 4,710 1,813
3,153 NA 3,034 1,808 4,788 1,854
3,170 NA 3,039 1,869 4,903 1,903
1,932 2,212 2,261 1,804 3,274 1,860
2,086 NA 1,803 1,728 3,475 1,784
2,075 NA 1,888 1,757 3,640 1,813
2,128 NA 1,918 1,794 3,753 1,849
2,133 NA 1,955 1,816 3,839 1,871
2,073 NA 1,996 1,851 3,898 1,906
1,996 NA 2,033 1,878 3,986 1,933
1,961 NA 2,066 1,908 4,065 1,963
1,974 NA 2,097 1,942 4,153 1,996
1,985 NA 2,131 1,977 4,273 2,031
2,426 2,555 1,854 5,038 2,438
2,494 2,530 1,844 5,153 2,431
NA 2,543 1,938 5,344 2,497
NA 2,676 1,959 5,546 2,512
NA 2,706 2,002 5,704 2,542
NA 2,729 2,037 5,802 2,566
NA 2,758 2,061 5,876 2,583
NA 2,788 2,097 5,960 2,609
NA 2,814 2,148 6,028 2,645
NA 2,845 2,205 6,109 2,685
NA 2,884 2,254 6,239 2,719
Milk EU Target U.S. Support U.S. All Milk
286 218 272
291 218 277
314 NA 260
313 NA 273
321 NA 277
320 NA 280
309 NA 283
295 NA 286
289 NA 288
291 NA 291
292 NA 294
Canadian Target, Industrial Canadian Fluid Milk, Ontario Australian Industrial Milk Australian Fluid Milk
374 419 135 193
384 430 140 200
402 448 141 202
420 467 143 204
435 482 145 207
445 492 147 210
454 501 148 212
464 511 150 215
473 520 152 218
483 529 155 222
497 543 157 226
U.S. CROPS
46 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Crop Planted Area Million Acres 85
80
75
70
65
60
55 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Wheat
2002/03 Corn
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Soybeans
U.S. Wheat Domestic Use Billion Bushels 1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Food, Other
2000/01
2002/03
Feed, Residual
2004/05 Seed
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 47
U.S. Corn Food and Industrial Use Billion Bushels 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99 Food, Other
2000/01
2002/03
Fuel Alcohol
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
HFCS
U.S. Soybean Utilization Billion Bushels 2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99 Crush
2000/01
2002/03 Exports
2004/05
48 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Crop Exports Billion Bushels 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Wheat
2000/01
2002/03
Corn
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Soybeans and Products
U.S. Crop Prices Dollars per Bushel 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99 Wheat
2000/01
2002/03 Corn
2004/05
2006/07
Soybeans
2008/09
2010/11
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 49
U.S. Cotton Prices Dollars per Pound 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Farm Price
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Loan Rate
U.S. Rice Prices Dollars per CWT 11
10
9
8
7
6
5 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Farm Price
2002/03
2004/05
Loan Rate
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
50 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Wheat Wheat planted area fell to 62.5 million acres in 2000/01. A further decline, down to 61 million acres, is expected for the 2001/00 crop as relative returns favor soybeans and feed grains. By 2010/11, wheat area is projected to grow to 64.4 million acres. Wheat area enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is projected to grow to 10.4 million acres by 2010/ 11. As of 2001, 9.6 million acres are idled under the CRP. Yield per acre for wheat hit 41.9 bushels per acre for 2000/01. Longer term, yields rise to 44.2 bushels per acre by 2010/11. Lower yield and fewer harvested acres reduced wheat production to 2.22 billion bushels in 2000/01. Production is projected to contract again in 2001/02 before rising to 2.5 billion bushels by 2010/11. Wheat feed and residual use is projected to increase to 298 million bushels for 2000/01. Feed use falls in the last half of the baseline as wheat prices increase. Feed use bottoms out at 257 million bushels in the 2004/05 crop year. Domestic food use is projected to continue to increase on a per-capita basis. Food use accounts for more than 1 billion bushels of disappearance by the 2005 crop year. U.S. wheat exports for 2000/01 are projected to increase to 1.125 billion bushels. The euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate impacts wheat exports greatly during the baseline. Exports fall to 1.044 by 2002/03 and then increase marginally, reaching 1.186 billion bushels by 2010. Ending stocks of wheat for 2000/01 decrease to 816 million bushels. Stocks decline in each year of the baseline, hitting 650 million bushels at the end of the 2010 crop year. Decreased supplies and ending stocks allowed prices to rise in 2000 relative to 1999. The season-average farm price for 2000/01 is projected to be $2.67 per bushel. Prices are projected to strengthen in 2001/02 due to reduced area. By the final year of the baseline, the U.S. wheat price rises to $3.55 per bushel. As market prices rise in the early part of the baseline, Loan Deficiency Payments (LDPs) are reduced. This will cause net returns for 2001/02 to be lower than for 2000/01. Thereafter, market net returns over variable production costs rise slowly throughout the projection period, as increases in market prices and yield are nearly offset by cost increases. By the end of the baseline, wheat returns plus LDPs rise to $83.68 per acre.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 51
U.S. Wheat Supply and a Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area
78.4 9.0 62.5 53.0
78.4 9.6 61.0 53.6
78.4 9.9 62.4 54.9
78.4 10.2 62.1 54.6
(Million Acres) 78.4 78.4 10.3 10.4 62.7 63.0 55.1 55.4
Yield Actual Program
41.9 34.5
41.1 34.5
41.3 34.5
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
3,268 950 2,223 95
3,114 816 2,203 95
Domestic Use Feed, Residual Seed Food, Other
1,327 298 84 945
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. FOB Gulf Price/mt PFC/MLA Payment/bu. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
78.4 10.4 63.3 55.7
78.4 10.4 63.6 55.9
78.4 10.4 64.0 56.3
78.4 10.4 64.2 56.5
78.4 10.4 64.4 56.7
41.7 34.5
(Bushels per Acre) 42.1 42.4 42.8 34.5 34.5 34.5
43.1 34.5
43.5 34.5
43.8 34.5
44.2 34.5
3,123 757 2,271 95
3,119 746 2,279 95
(Million Bushels) 3,140 3,162 3,181 726 715 705 2,320 2,351 2,381 95 95 95
3,201 694 2,413 95
3,225 682 2,448 95
3,244 673 2,476 95
3,261 663 2,503 95
1,304 263 89 953
1,333 278 89 967
1,331 260 90 981
1,343 257 91 994
1,356 258 92 1,006
1,370 259 93 1,018
1,381 258 94 1,029
1,399 264 95 1,041
1,413 265 96 1,052
1,424 265 97 1,063
1,125
1,053
1,044
1,063
1,083
1,101
1,118
1,139
1,152
1,168
1,186
2,452
2,357
2,377
2,393
2,425
2,456
2,488
2,520
2,552
2,581
2,610
816 0 105 60 651
757 0 95 71 591
746 0 93 71 582
726 0 93 62 571
715 0 93 59 563
705 0 93 56 556
694 0 93 53 548
682 0 93 49 540
673 0 93 48 532
663 0 93 46 524
650 0 93 43 514
2.67 2.58 121.17 1.22 63.00 112.03 16.19 65.22 35.77
2.88 2.58 130.24 0.47 68.21 118.46 1.99 52.23 13.83
2.91 2.58 131.63 0.46 65.34 120.45 0.67 55.79 13.43
3.03 2.58 136.84 0.46 64.89 126.58 0.00 61.69 13.43
(U.S. Dollars) 3.11 3.17 3.25 2.58 2.58 2.58 139.89 142.66 146.26 0.46 0.46 0.46 65.33 66.04 67.13 130.63 134.45 139.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 65.30 68.41 72.01 13.43 13.43 13.43
3.34 2.58 150.15 0.46 68.41 144.16 0.00 75.75 13.43
3.39 2.58 152.33 0.46 69.76 147.53 0.00 77.77 13.43
3.46 2.58 155.14 0.46 71.32 151.56 0.00 80.24 13.43
3.55 2.58 159.05 0.46 73.06 156.74 0.00 83.68 13.43
52 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Corn U.S. corn farmers increased planted area to 79.5 million acres in 2000/01. Favorable spring weather accounted for much of the increase. Corn area is expected to fall in the spring of 2001 to 78.0 million acres. Corn is expected to gain from worldwide food demand during the baseline; by the 2010/11 crop year, FAPRI projects that 80.9 million acres will be planted to corn. The national average corn yield rose to 137.1 bushels per acre in 2000/01. Earlier than normal planting and the long growing season boosted the yield. Assuming normal weather, corn yields come back down to the trend-line level in 2001/02 of 136.2 bushels per acre. Technological and genetic progress allows corn yields to grow at a rate of 1.3 percent per year during the baseline. Higher feed use is projected for the 2000/01 marketing year, at 5.783 billion bushels. Feed usage decreases in 2001/ 02 to 5.697 billion bushels. Steady growth in several livestock categories and stable crop prices cause feed usage to rise during the baseline period, reaching 6.207 billion bushels in 2010/11. Corn used for fuel alcohol production is projected to require 713 million bushels by 2010/11, up from the projected 2000/01 number of 593 million bushels. Federal tax exemptions for ethanol are assumed to continue at the levels currently set by law. The outlook for ethanol is surrounded with uncertainty given recent proposed changes by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regarding the use of Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE), ethanol’s major competitor. U.S. corn exports in 2000/01 are projected to increase to 2.102 billion bushels. Improvements in Asian economies and the decline in the U.S. dollar together increase the quantity of U.S. corn exported. Projected exports rise markedly throughout the remainder of the baseline. By the last year, U.S. corn exports are more than 2.8 billion bushels. Corn ending stocks for the 2000/01 marketing year are projected to rise to 1.851 million bushels. With a return to normal weather, ending stocks fall, slowly reaching 1.5 billion bushels by 2010/11. The quantity of stocks in the nine-month loan program at the end of each marketing year is modest, although higher levels during a given marketing year are possible. Abundant supplies and relatively high levels of stocks in 2000/01 keep pressure on corn prices. The farm price is projected to average $1.87 per bushel, up $0.05 from the prior year. For 2001/02, the farm price is expected to rise to $2.05 per bushel as fewer acres are planted and exports rise. Market transition payments average $22.82 per acre during the baseline. Market net returns plus LDP payments over variable costs are projected to rise during the baseline, hitting $188.35 per acre by 2010/11. The increases in yield offset higher production costs in each year. As prices strengthen, the returns rise.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 53
U.S. Corn Supply an nd Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
81.5 4.3 79.5 72.7
81.5 4.6 78.0 71.4
81.4 4.7 78.7 72.1
81.4 4.9 78.9 72.4
81.4 5.0 80.0 73.5
81.4 5.0 80.5 74.0
81.4 5.0 80.8 74.4
81.4 5.0 80.8 74.4
81.4 5.0 80.9 74.6
137.1 102.6
136.2 102.6
138.1 102.6
140.0 102.6
(Bushels per Acre) 141.9 143.8 145.7 102.6 102.6 102.6
147.5 102.6
149.4 102.6
151.2 102.6
153.1 102.6
11,696 1,718 9,968 10
11,582 1,851 9,722 10
11,679 1,719 9,950 10
11,833 1,690 10,134 10
(Million Bushels) 12,002 12,175 12,358 1,672 1,655 1,636 10,319 10,511 10,713 10 10 10
12,545 1,613 10,922 10
12,719 1,595 11,113 10
12,852 1,583 11,259 10
12,985 1,555 11,420 10
Domestic Use Feed, Residual Fuel Alcohol HFCS Seed Food, Other
7,743 5,783 593 547 20 800
7,714 5,697 617 563 20 817
7,816 5,751 628 582 20 834
7,954 5,854 634 599 20 847
8,048 5,910 641 616 20 860
8,148 5,969 651 632 20 876
8,258 6,040 659 647 21 891
8,379 6,117 671 663 21 907
8,460 6,151 687 679 21 923
8,534 6,179 701 695 21 939
8,605 6,207 713 710 21 954
Exports
2,102
2,149
2,174
2,207
2,299
2,391
2,487
2,571
2,676
2,762
2,858
Total Use
9,845
9,863
9,990
10,161
10,347
10,540
10,746
10,949
11,136
11,296
11,463
Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks
1,851 0 15 389 1,446
1,719 0 25 389 1,305
1,690 0 10 408 1,271
1,672 0 5 392 1,275
1,655 0 0 373 1,282
1,636 0 0 349 1,286
1,613 0 0 324 1,289
1,595 0 0 305 1,290
1,583 0 0 293 1,290
1,555 0 0 275 1,281
1,523 0 0 252 1,270
1.87 1.89 88.78 0.70 172.20 256.01 30.96 114.77 60.76
2.05 1.89 96.54 0.27 184.83 279.07 5.58 99.82 23.44
2.10 1.89 98.60 0.26 176.82 289.57 0.00 112.75 22.75
2.14 1.89 100.39 0.26 175.95 299.48 0.00 123.52 22.75
2.30 1.89 107.40 0.26 182.81 335.43 0.00 152.62 22.75
2.36 1.89 109.83 0.26 186.61 348.02 0.00 161.42 22.75
2.41 1.89 111.81 0.26 190.63 359.30 0.00 168.67 22.75
2.47 1.89 114.47 0.26 195.24 373.22 0.00 177.98 22.75
2.54 1.89 117.53 0.26 200.35 388.70 0.00 188.35 22.75
Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area Yield Actual Program
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. FOB Gulf Price/mt PFC/MLA Payment/bu. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.
04/05
05/06
(Million Acres) 81.4 81.4 4.9 5.0 79.2 79.6 72.7 73.1
(U.S. Dollars) 2.18 2.24 1.89 1.89 102.31 104.64 0.26 0.26 177.38 179.58 309.94 321.91 0.00 0.00 132.56 142.33 22.75 22.75
54 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Sorghum Reduced area in the Southern Plains states pushed total sorghum planted area lower again in 2000, down to 9.2 million acres. Sorghum planted area falls to 9.02 million acres by 2010/11 as sorghum loses area to other crops. Sorghum area enrolled in the CRP totaled 1 million acres for the 2000/01 marketing year. New contracts are expected to add one hundred thousand acres to sorghum CRP area by 2010/11. The U.S. average sorghum yield decreased to 60.9 bushels per acre in 2000/01. The Plains states yields for 2000 fell relative to 1999. Sorghum yield is projected to reach 71.5 bushels per acre by 2010/11. Genetic improvement increases average sorghum yield at an annual growth rate of 0.56 percent per year. Sorghum feed use is projected to be 240 million bushels in 2000/01. A rising sorghum to corn price ratio is one reason for the decrease in feed use. Feed use of sorghum recovers in 2001/02 due to increased supplies. Exports of U.S. sorghum in 2000/01 are projected to be 200 million bushels. The volume of exports grows in each year of the baseline, reaching 256 million bushels by 2010/11. Worldwide demand for feed grains pulls the sorghum export figure higher. Potential problems with importing countries accepting genetically modified feed grains could aid grain sorghum exports. Japan and Mexico remain the largest export markets for U.S. sorghum. Sorghum ending stocks decreased in 2000/01 to 45 million bushels, down from 65 million bushels the previous year. The FAIR Act eliminated the Farmer Owned Reserve (FOR) program, and the market is the only holder of stocks in the baseline. With a return to normal weather, ending stocks are generally expected to remain below 61 million bushels during the baseline, falling to 43 million bushels by 2010/11. Because of the decline in ending stocks and despite the decline in export volume in 2000/01, the season-average sorghum farm price rose to $1.78 per bushel. Prices are projected to increase in 2001/02 to $1.84 per bushel. Sorghum prices will maintain a fairly constant relationship to corn prices, rising to $2.30 per bushel by 2010/11. Gross market returns are projected to rise in 2001/02 with a return to normal weather. Net returns over variable costs plus government payments currently are projected to rise relative to the previous year, but fertilizer and energy costs may prevent this from happening. In the future, net returns are projected to rise as the growth rate of yields and prices more than outpaces the growth in costs. In the 2010/11 marketing year, market returns hit $61.22.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 55
U.S. Sorghum Supp ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area
13.6 1.0 9.2 7.7
13.6 1.1 9.4 8.3
13.5 1.1 9.4 8.3
13.5 1.2 9.3 8.2
(Million Acres) 13.5 13.5 1.2 1.2 9.2 9.2 8.1 8.1
Yield Actual Program
60.9 56.9
68.0 56.9
68.3 56.9
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
535 65 470 0
609 45 564 0
Domestic Use Feed, Residual Food, Seed, Ind.
290 240 51
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. Sorghum/Corn Ratio FOB Gulf Price/mt PFC/MLA Payment/bu. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
13.5 1.2 9.2 8.1
13.5 1.2 9.2 8.1
13.5 1.2 9.1 8.0
13.5 1.2 9.1 8.0
13.5 1.2 9.0 8.0
68.8 56.9
(Bushels per Acre) 69.2 69.6 70.0 56.9 56.9 56.9
70.4 56.9
70.8 56.9
71.1 56.9
71.5 56.9
627 60 567 0
624 61 563 0
(Million Bushels) 621 621 58 56 563 565 0 0
621 54 568 0
621 52 569 0
619 50 569 0
617 49 568 0
615 46 569 0
349 298 51
356 305 51
354 303 51
349 298 52
340 289 51
336 284 51
334 283 51
329 278 51
322 270 51
316 265 51
200
200
209
212
216
227
234
236
241
249
256
490
549
566
566
565
567
570
571
570
571
572
45 0 2 5 38
60 0 2 6 52
61 0 2 6 53
58 0 0 5 53
56 0 0 5 51
54 0 0 4 50
52 0 0 3 48
50 0 0 3 47
49 0 0 3 46
46 0 0 3 44
43 0 0 2 41
1.78 1.71 0.95 89.68 0.83 92.88 108.54 10.80 26.46 40.38
1.84 1.71 0.90 92.24 0.32 96.98 125.07 1.32 29.42 15.57
1.87 1.69 0.89 93.50 0.31 93.47 127.70 0.00 34.24 15.12
1.91 1.69 0.90 95.55 0.31 93.00 131.69 0.00 38.69 15.12
(U.S. Dollars) 1.96 2.02 2.09 1.70 1.71 1.70 0.90 0.90 0.91 97.61 100.48 103.24 0.31 0.31 0.31 93.55 94.37 95.77 135.69 140.95 146.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.14 46.58 50.29 15.12 15.12 15.12
2.13 1.70 0.90 105.21 0.31 97.41 149.97 0.00 52.56 15.12
2.17 1.70 0.90 107.08 0.31 99.18 153.74 0.00 54.56 15.12
2.24 1.71 0.91 109.90 0.31 101.24 159.03 0.00 57.78 15.12
2.30 1.71 0.91 113.01 0.31 103.53 164.76 0.00 61.22 15.12
56 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Barley Barley planted area is projected to rise for the 2001/02 season to 5.9 million acres. By marketing year 2010/11, barley planted area is projected to decline to 5.7 million acres. Barley loses some of its share of total U.S. cropland, continuing a long, ongoing trend. Land formerly devoted to barley production is planted to other crops, including soybeans, minor oilseeds, and corn. U.S. barley yield in 2000/01 was 61.1 bushels per acre, the highest national average since 1992. Barley yields go up slowly during the baseline period, reaching 67.3 bushels per acre by 2009/10. This assumes an annual growth rate of 0.87 percent. Barley imports are projected to be 30 million bushels in 2000/01, and this level is assumed to hold during the entire baseline. Export levels of 47 to 59 million bushels are expected, making the U.S. a small net exporter of barley. Total domestic use for barley is projected to be relatively stable. Feed use, currently at 131 million bushels, will increase—to 139 million bushels by 2009/10—as prices for other feed grains go up. Barley food, seed, and industrial uses will grow only modestly, from 172 million bushels in 2000/01 to 182 million bushels in 2010/11. U.S. barley exports are expected to increase by 20 million bushels in 2000/01 to 50 million bushels. After a small contraction due to prices in 2001-2003, exports grow slowly during the baseline, reaching 59 million bushels by the end of the projection period. The European Union increases its exports of barley during the baseline. Barley ending stocks in 1999/00 stood at 111 million bushels, down from the previous year’s level of 142 million bushels. The projection for 2000/01 is 106 million bushels. Stocks are projected to fall during the baseline, supporting the barley price. The 2000/01 U.S. season-average barley farm price is projected at $2.12 per bushel, down from $2.13 per bushel in the prior year. Barley prices rise continually during the baseline. As corn prices rise in the end of the baseline, barley prices are pulled upward. By 2010/11, barley prices are projected to reach $2.58 per bushel. Market net returns over variable costs are projected to shrink to $48.15 per acre in 2001/02 despite higher prices. Decreased LDPs and increased costs are the cause. Returns are projected to recover for 2002/03. Yield increases more than offset cost-of-production increases through the remainder of the baseline, resulting in higher market net returns. Barley returns reach $71.80 per acre in 2010/11.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 57
U.S. Barley Supply and a Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area
11.1 0.8 5.8 5.2
11.1 0.8 5.9 5.3
11.1 0.8 5.8 5.3
11.1 0.9 5.8 5.3
(Million Acres) 11.1 11.1 0.9 0.9 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.2
11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2
11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2
11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2
11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2
11.1 0.9 5.7 5.2
Yield Actual Program
61.1 46.7
62.2 46.7
62.8 46.7
63.4 46.7
(Bushels per Acre) 64.0 64.5 65.1 46.7 46.7 46.7
65.6 46.7
66.2 46.7
66.8 46.7
67.3 46.7
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
459 111 318 30
469 106 332 30
471 106 335 30
473 105 338 30
(Million Bushels) 471 471 103 102 338 339 30 30
472 102 340 30
473 101 342 30
473 100 344 30
474 99 346 30
475 97 348 30
Domestic Use Feed, Residual Food, Seed, Ind.
303 131 172
316 143 173
318 144 174
320 145 175
318 143 176
317 141 176
317 140 177
317 139 178
318 138 180
319 138 181
320 139 182
50
47
48
49
51
52
54
56
57
58
59
Total Use
353
363
366
369
369
369
371
373
374
377
379
Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks
106 0 1 5 101
106 0 1 5 100
105 0 1 5 99
103 0 0 5 98
102 0 0 5 98
102 0 0 5 96
101 0 0 6 94
100 0 0 6 93
99 0 0 6 93
97 0 0 5 92
96 0 0 5 91
2.12 1.62 0.52 121.39 89.84 129.40 13.40 52.96 20.73
2.23 1.65 0.20 124.55 95.01 138.61 4.56 48.15 8.03
2.27 1.71 0.20 125.91 91.22 142.33 6.07 57.18 7.79
2.30 1.74 0.20 127.76 90.87 145.66 6.08 60.87 7.79
(U.S. Dollars) 2.33 2.37 2.41 1.76 1.73 1.70 0.20 0.20 0.20 129.51 132.82 134.74 91.61 92.60 94.09 149.00 152.57 156.60 5.23 0.81 0.00 62.62 60.78 62.51 7.79 7.79 7.79
2.44 1.69 0.20 137.71 95.82 160.44 0.00 64.62 7.79
2.48 1.68 0.20 140.22 97.65 164.00 0.00 66.35 7.79
2.52 1.66 0.20 141.61 99.77 168.56 0.00 68.79 7.79
2.58 1.65 0.20 145.24 102.12 173.92 0.00 71.80 7.79
Exports
Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. PFC/MLA Payment/bu. FOB Portland/mt Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.
04/05
05/06
58 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Oats Oats area planted decreased in 2000/01, down to 4.5 million acres. Planted area is projected to decrease in the longer term, falling to 3.8 million acres by the last year of the baseline. Returns for soybeans, minor oilseeds, and other feed grains are higher than for oats and pull oat plantings down. Harvested area in 2000/01 fell from a year ago to 2.3 million acres. Declining area devoted to oats has been an ongoing trend and, by the last year of the baseline, harvested area is projected to fall to 1.8 million acres. Oat yields increased to 64.2 bushels per acre harvested in 2000/01, the highest level since 1992. Yields show little growth in the baseline. Trend yield generates an annual increase of just under 0.5 percent. Net imports of oats are projected to rise to 98 million bushels in 2000/01. Oat exports are projected to be 2 million bushels per year. Net imports remain between 100 and 106 million bushels over the baseline period. Oat feed use is projected to be 176 million bushels in 2001/02 and then decrease every year of the baseline. At the end of the baseline, oat feed use falls to 148 million bushels. This feed use trend couples with flat food use to produce declining total use of oats. Food use of oats continues the trend of the past four years and does not increase significantly during the baseline. Total oat food by 2010/11 is approximately 72 million bushels. Oat ending stocks are projected to be 80 million bushels for the 2000/01 marketing year, weighing heavily on prices. Stocks decline during the baseline, down to 58 million bushels by the last year. The season average farm price for oats in 2000/01 is projected to be $1.06 per bushel. Oat prices are projected to rise in 2001/02 due to higher overall commodity prices. As prices of other feed grains rise during the baseline, oat prices are pulled along, reaching $1.44 per bushel in 2010/11. Oat contract payments average $0.02 per bushel during the baseline. Market net returns over variable costs in 2000/01 are projected at $32.74 per acre. This includes LDP returns of over $18 per acre. Net returns are projected to fall in 2001, despite rising prices. Rising prices in the latter years of the baseline help offset rising costs and flat yields. By 2010/11, per acre net returns for oats rise to $29.14 per acre.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 59
U.S. Oat Supply and d Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
6.7 0.3 4.5 2.3
6.7 0.3 4.5 2.4
6.7 0.3 4.2 2.2
6.7 0.3 4.1 2.1
Yield Actual Program
64.2 50.7
60.4 50.7
60.7 50.7
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
325 76 149 100
324 80 143 102
Domestic Use Feed, Residual Food, Seed, Ind.
243 175 68
Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks FOR, Special Program CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. PFC/MLA Payment/bu. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
6.7 0.3 4.0 2.0
6.7 0.3 4.0 1.9
6.7 0.3 3.9 1.9
6.7 0.3 3.9 1.8
6.7 0.3 3.8 1.8
61.0 50.7
(Bushels per Acre) 61.3 61.5 61.8 50.7 50.7 50.7
62.0 50.7
62.2 50.7
62.5 50.7
62.7 50.7
313 78 131 104
304 73 126 105
(Million Bushels) 300 296 70 68 125 122 105 106
293 66 120 106
289 64 118 107
286 63 117 107
284 61 115 107
280 60 112 108
244 176 68
237 169 68
233 164 69
230 161 69
228 158 70
226 156 70
225 154 71
223 152 71
222 150 72
220 148 72
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
245
246
239
235
232
230
228
227
225
224
222
80 0 0 1 79
78 0 0 1 77
73 0 0 1 72
70 0 0 1 69
68 0 0 1 67
66 0 0 1 65
64 0 0 1 63
63 0 0 1 62
61 0 0 1 60
60 0 0 1 59
58 0 0 1 57
1.06 1.16 0.06 53.70 67.95 18.50 32.74 2.44
1.12 1.21 0.02 58.03 67.72 14.45 24.15 0.92
1.19 1.14 0.02 55.56 72.04 6.24 22.72 0.90
1.24 1.10 0.02 55.12 75.72 0.72 21.33 0.90
1.34 1.10 0.02 56.78 82.68 0.00 25.89 0.90
1.37 1.12 0.02 57.79 84.80 0.00 27.01 0.90
1.39 1.12 0.02 58.86 86.43 0.00 27.57 0.90
1.41 1.12 0.02 60.08 88.20 0.00 28.12 0.90
1.44 1.12 0.02 61.45 90.59 0.00 29.14 0.90
(Million Acres) 6.7 6.7 0.3 0.3 4.1 4.0 2.0 2.0
(U.S. Dollars) 1.27 1.31 1.11 1.10 0.02 0.02 55.43 55.96 77.99 80.31 0.00 0.00 22.56 24.35 0.90 0.90
60 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Hay Hay area harvested fell to 59.9 million acres in 2000/01. Drought conditions in the Southern Plains decreased the number of acres that could be harvested for hay. During the baseline, the beef cycle and beef prices play an important part in determining hay area harvested. Area harvested rises to 61.3 million acres by 2010/11. Hay yields per harvested acre rose in 2000/01 to 2.54 tons per acre. Yields are projected to increase at a rate of less than 0.5 percent per year, assuming normal weather. Hay disappearance is projected to decrease in 2000/01 to 155.4 million tons. Use then increases in each year of the baseline. In the last year of the projection period, hay domestic use rises to 164.8 million tons. Hay ending stocks in 2000/01 are expected to fall to 25.6 million tons. Ending stocks average 25.1 million tons throughout the baseline. The U.S. average all-hay price rose to $83.32 per ton in 2000/01 but is projected to fall in 2000/01 to a seasonaverage farm price of $82.99 per ton. The U.S. average alfalfa hay price rose to $84.34 per ton in 2000/01. In the 2001/02 crop year, alfalfa prices are expected to rise again to $87.17 per ton. The alfalfa hay price averages almost $4.40 higher than all-hay prices during the baseline.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 61
U.S. Hay Supply and d Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area
59.9
60.5
60.7
60.6
Yield
2.54
2.59
2.60
2.61
Supply Production Beginning Stocks
181.0 152.2 28.8
182.3 156.7 25.6
183.6 157.7 25.9
184.5 158.4 26.2
Disappearance
155.4
156.4
157.4
Ending Stocks
25.6
25.9
83.32 84.34
82.99 87.17
Prices All-Hay (crop year) Alfalfa (calendar year)
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Million Acres) 60.6 60.7
60.8
61.0
61.2
61.3
61.3
(Tons per Acre) 2.62 2.63
2.65
2.66
2.67
2.68
2.69
(Million Tons) 185.2 185.7 159.0 159.9 26.2 25.9
186.4 160.8 25.5
187.0 162.0 25.1
187.6 163.1 24.5
188.2 164.0 24.2
188.7 164.6 24.1
158.3
159.3
160.2
161.3
162.5
163.4
164.1
164.8
26.2
26.2
25.9
25.5
25.1
24.5
24.2
24.1
23.9
82.63 86.74
82.90 86.77
86.97 91.06
88.70 93.10
89.88 94.80
90.52 95.83
91.31 96.72
(U.S. Dollars) 84.09 85.36 87.77 89.27
62 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Peanuts The U.S. quota poundage remains unchanged at 2.360 billion pounds for the 2000/01 crop year. Increases in domestic food use during the baseline period cause the quota to grow 25 million pounds per year. Planted area is projected to rise to 1.543 million acres in 2000/01, despite weaker price signals. Low returns for other crops and increased crop insurance incentives account for the increase. As prices recover and the quota expands, area is projected to recover to 1.588 million acres by the end of the baseline. The U.S. average peanut yield fell to 2,499 pounds per acre in 2000/01. Using the assumption of normal weather and trend yields, peanut yields are projected to grow from 2,625 pounds in 2001 to 2,719 pounds by 2010. Domestic use of peanuts is projected to grow from 3.224 billion pounds in 2000/01 to 3.599 billion pounds in 2010/ 11. Food use of peanuts contributes the majority of the growth. However, the growth only keeps pace with the growth in population, implying that per-capita use is relatively flat. Despite decreased supplies, the farm price of peanuts fell to $0.252 per pound in 2000/01. Weaker export markets and low protein meal prices are part of the reason. As supplies grow over the baseline, prices are expected to remain under pressure during the baseline, never rising higher than $0.267 per pound.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 63
U.S. Peanut Supply y and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Program Quota Poundage
2,360
2,360
2,385
2,410
(Million Pounds) 2,435 2,460 2,485
2,510
2,535
2,560
2,585
Area Planted Area Harvested Area
1,543 1,316
1,494 1,444
1,570 1,518
1,559 1,508
(Thousand Acre) 1,571 1,574 1,577 1,519 1,523 1,525
1,581 1,530
1,584 1,532
1,586 1,534
1,588 1,536
Yield
2,499
2,625
2,626
2,639
(Pounds per Acre) 2,649 2,661 2,672
2,684
2,695
2,707
2,719
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
4,700 1,233 3,288 179
4,778 814 3,789 175
4,944 784 3,986 175
4,979 825 3,979 175
(Million Pounds) 5,023 5,053 5,078 823 827 826 4,025 4,051 4,076 175 175 175
5,104 824 4,105 175
5,129 824 4,130 175
5,152 823 4,154 175
5,174 822 4,177 175
Domestic Use Food Crush Seed, Feed, & Residual
3,224 2,125 684 415
3,282 2,169 688 425
3,368 2,224 719 425
3,410 2,267 718 425
3,445 2,297 723 425
3,475 2,325 726 425
3,502 2,350 727 425
3,528 2,373 730 425
3,553 2,395 733 425
3,576 2,416 735 425
3,599 2,438 737 425
663
713
751
746
751
752
751
753
753
754
754
3,886
3,994
4,120
4,156
4,196
4,227
4,254
4,281
4,306
4,330
4,353
814
784
825
823
827
826
824
824
823
822
820
0.252 0.305 376.38 252.28
0.267 0.305 403.97 297.40
0.258 0.305 386.47 289.95
0.259 0.305 384.58 299.13
(U.S. Dollars) 0.258 0.258 0.259 0.305 0.305 0.305 387.69 392.50 399.55 295.87 293.20 291.61
0.259 0.305 407.86 287.56
0.260 0.305 416.66 283.62
0.261 0.305 426.72 279.27
0.260 0.305 437.90 267.64
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices and Returns Season Avg. Price/lb. Quota Loan Rate/lb. Variable Expenses/a Average Net Returns/a
05/06
64 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Soybeans and Soybean Products Soybean planted area rose in 2000/01 to 74.5 million acres, marking the eighth straight year of soybean area increases. Despite lower prices, soybean planted area is expected to expand again in 2001, as net returns per acre still compare favorably with competing crops. The government loan rate for soybeans shifts some land from other crops into soybeans. Longer term, soybean plantings range between 74.6 and 75.6 million acres. Soybean yields stood at 38.1 bushels per acre for 2000/01. Assuming average rainfall and temperatures during the baseline period, soybean yields grow to 43.6 bushels per acre by 2010/11. This is a growth rate of almost 1.1 percent per year. Production in 2000/01 came in at 2.770 billion bushels. For the 2001/00 crop, the high area and trend yield combine to produce a record crop of 2.946 billion bushels. By 2010/11, the United States is expected to produce 3.2 billion bushels. High soybean meal demand and ample supplies of soybeans caused crush use to rise to 1.601 billion bushels for the 2000/01 marketing year, and the strong demand is projected to continue. Crush is projected to rise to 1.9 billion bushels by 2010/11. Soybean oil domestic use increased in 2000/01, exceeding 16.4 billion pounds. For the coming marketing year, domestic use is projected at almost 17.2 billion pounds. With slow growth assumed for many competing fats and oils, domestic use continues to increase though 2010/11, topping 19.6 billion pounds. Domestic soybean meal use rose in 2000/01 to 31.2 million tons and is expected to rise again in 2001/02 to 31.5 million tons. Increases in livestock numbers during the projection period keep soybean meal uses rising during the baseline period. Meal domestic use rises above 37 million tons in the last year of the baseline. For the 2000/01 crop year, exports of soybeans are projected to be 975 million bushels, a new record. In the final year of the baseline, exports are projected to be 1,147 million bushels. The soybean season-average farm price moved sharply lower in 1999, on the heels of successive large crops in the United States and South America. The 2000/01 price is projected to rise from the 1999 level, to $4.75 per bushel. The potential for LDPs continues. Assuming trend yields, soybean prices are expected to average below the loan rate until the 2007/08 marketing year. By the final year of the baseline, the season-average farm price of soybeans is projected to be $5.77 per bushel. Soybean net returns, including government payments, remain strong throughout the projection period, as price and yield increases more than offset rising costs of production. Soybeans remain competitive with almost all other crops during the baseline. By 2010/11, soybean returns reach over $153 per acre.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 65
U.S. Soybean Suppl ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area
3.5 74.5 72.7
3.8 75.9 74.6
3.9 75.6 74.2
4.0 75.2 73.8
(Million Acres) 4.1 4.1 75.0 74.9 73.7 73.6
Yield
38.1
39.5
40.0
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
3,062 290 2,770 3
3,268 318 2,946 3
Domestic Use Crush Seed, Residual
1,769 1,601 168
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks CCC Inventory 9-Month Loan "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/bu. Loan Rate/bu. Ill. Proc. Price/mt Bean/Corn Ratio Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Oilseed Assistance Pymts/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. 48% Meal Price/ton Oil Price/cwt Crushing Margin/bu.
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4.1 74.8 73.5
4.1 74.7 73.3
4.1 74.6 73.2
4.1 74.9 73.5
4.1 75.2 73.8
40.5
(Bushels per Acre) 41.0 41.5 41.9
42.4
42.8
43.2
43.6
3,366 393 2,970 3
3,406 410 2,993 3
(Million Bushels) 3,427 3,441 3,457 402 386 373 3,022 3,052 3,081 3 3 3
3,472 363 3,107 3
3,488 350 3,135 3
3,516 337 3,176 3
3,551 331 3,217 3
1,831 1,660 171
1,852 1,681 171
1,876 1,704 172
1,901 1,729 173
1,929 1,756 173
1,959 1,785 174
1,985 1,811 174
2,014 1,839 175
2,045 1,868 177
2,079 1,900 178
975
1,043
1,103
1,127
1,139
1,139
1,135
1,138
1,137
1,141
1,147
2,744
2,875
2,955
3,004
3,041
3,068
3,094
3,123
3,151
3,186
3,226
318 5 45 268
393 5 43 345
410 5 43 363
402 5 44 354
386 3 47 336
373 1 50 322
363 0 54 309
350 0 59 291
337 0 66 271
331 0 70 260
324 0 63 261
4.75 5.26 182.43 2.54 84.06 181.04 30.34 5.16 127.32 182.86 14.23 1.02
4.53 5.26 176.03 2.21 85.65 178.96 38.64 0.00 131.95 175.60 14.81 1.06
4.56 5.26 176.93 2.17 83.65 182.35 38.09 0.00 136.79 174.92 15.08 1.05
4.69 5.26 181.46 2.19 84.28 190.07 33.21 0.00 139.00 177.01 15.73 1.05
5.20 5.26 199.02 2.26 89.06 218.11 12.83 0.00 141.87 186.71 18.26 1.09
5.38 5.26 205.00 2.28 91.07 227.88 5.56 0.00 142.37 189.52 19.23 1.11
5.56 5.26 211.05 2.31 93.17 237.81 0.00 0.00 144.64 192.34 20.28 1.13
5.67 5.26 215.07 2.30 95.55 245.02 0.00 0.00 149.46 194.57 21.01 1.16
5.77 5.26 218.32 2.27 98.17 251.33 0.00 0.00 153.16 195.08 21.95 1.19
(U.S. Dollars) 4.89 5.06 5.26 5.26 188.29 194.05 2.24 2.26 85.72 87.20 200.48 209.71 25.41 18.71 0.00 0.00 140.16 141.22 181.18 184.13 16.51 17.39 1.05 1.07
66 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Soybean Meal Supply S and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
38,694 293 38,336 65
39,774 275 39,434 65
40,242 252 39,926 65
Domestic Use
31,227
31,582
7,192
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices, 48% Protein Decatur/ton Decatur/mt
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
40,791 250 40,476 65
(Thousand Tons) 41,370 42,025 42,715 251 252 254 41,054 41,708 42,396 65 65 65
43,336 256 43,014 65
43,991 258 43,668 65
44,693 261 44,367 65
45,461 262 45,134 65
32,291
32,996
33,580
34,260
34,909
35,597
36,210
36,914
37,665
7,940
7,701
7,544
7,538
7,512
7,549
7,480
7,520
7,516
7,529
38,419
39,522
39,993
40,540
41,119
41,771
42,458
43,077
43,730
44,430
45,194
275
252
250
251
252
254
256
258
261
262
267
182.86 201.57
175.60 193.57
174.92 192.81
177.01 195.12
(U.S. Dollars) 181.18 184.13 186.71 199.71 202.97 205.81
189.52 208.90
192.34 212.01
194.57 214.48
195.08 215.04
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 67
U.S. Soybean Oil Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
20,149 1,995 18,074 80
21,212 2,293 18,829 90
21,455 2,294 19,072 90
Domestic Use
16,454
17,138
1,401
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices Decatur/cwt Decatur/mt
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
21,720 2,287 19,343 90
(Million Pounds) 22,002 22,323 22,654 2,284 2,283 2,277 19,628 19,950 20,287 90 90 90
22,953 2,270 20,593 90
23,259 2,255 20,914 90
23,583 2,234 21,259 90
23,957 2,232 21,636 90
17,535
17,706
17,916
18,174
18,448
18,716
18,977
19,337
19,655
1,781
1,634
1,730
1,803
1,872
1,936
1,982
2,048
2,014
2,082
17,855
18,919
19,169
19,436
19,719
20,046
20,384
20,698
21,025
21,351
21,737
2,293
2,294
2,287
2,284
2,283
2,277
2,270
2,255
2,234
2,232
2,221
14.23 313.71
14.81 326.47
15.08 332.42
15.73 346.84
(U.S. Dollars) 16.51 17.39 18.26 363.95 383.38 402.54
19.23 423.89
20.28 447.06
21.01 463.20
21.95 483.82
68 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Rice U.S. rice planted area contracted to 3.065 million acres in 2000/01, down from 3.53 million acres in 1999/00. Higher expected returns for rice in 2001/00 will increase area to 3.29 million acres. Rice area falls near the end of the baseline to 3.32 million acres. U.S. rice harvested area yielded 6,278 pounds per acre in 2000. Yields are projected to return to normal trend levels for 2001 and then to show growth throughout the projection period, reaching 6,394 pounds per acre in 2010/11. Assuming trend yields, increased area will push 2001 rice production up slightly, to 197 million cwt. Production is projected to be 210 million cwt by the end of the baseline, as yield rises faster than area decreases. Imports are expected to continue to increase over the projection period. For the 2000/01 marketing year, 10 million cwt of rice is expected to be imported. By 2010/11, 15.7 million cwt per year is imported. Food use of rice continues to show sustained growth. A new record of 96 million cwt was set in 1999/01, and the 2000/01 marketing year is expected to best that level. By 2010/11, rice food use is projected to reach 121.6 million cwt. Compared to domestic uses, rice exports remain more sensitive to price levels. U.S. exports are projected to increase to 86.9 million cwt by 2003/04. Thereafter, the U.S. price rises, and exports shrink to 77.1 million cwt by 2010/11. Ending stocks of rice for 2000/01 are projected to decrease to 25.5 million cwt. Stock levels remain near their present values during the rest of the baseline. The U.S. average farm price is projected to decrease to $5.78 per cwt for marketing year 2000/01 due to a decline in total use. Prices strengthen slowly to above $7 per cwt by 2004/05 as world prices rise. Longer term, rice prices increase further, reaching $8.21 by the end of the projection period. Lower world prices increase LDP gains for rice in 2000/01, so much so that net returns to rice increase even though farm prices fall. Gross market returns increase in every year of the baseline as prices increase. Total returns of market plus government minus variable costs stood at $115 for the 1999 crop and rose to $155 for the 2000 crop. By 2010/11, returns rise to $158 per acre.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 69
U.S. Rice Supply an nd Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
4.17 0.01 3.07 3.04
4.17 0.01 3.29 3.26
4.17 0.01 3.42 3.38
4.17 0.02 3.41 3.37
Yield Actual Program
6,278 4,817
6,044 4,817
6,049 4,817
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
228.6 27.5 191.1 10.0
233.3 25.5 196.9 10.9
Domestic Use Food Seed Brewing Residual
123.1 97.1 4.1 15.4 6.5
Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks CCC Inventory "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Season Avg. Price/cwt Loan Rate/cwt FOB Houston/cwt PFC/MLA Payment/cwt Adjusted World Price/cwt Variable Expenses/a Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4.17 0.02 3.39 3.35
4.17 0.02 3.38 3.34
4.17 0.02 3.36 3.33
4.17 0.02 3.35 3.31
4.17 0.02 3.32 3.28
6,095 4,817
(Pounds per Acre) 6,136 6,178 6,221 4,817 4,817 4,817
6,264 4,817
6,306 4,817
6,348 4,817
6,394 4,817
241.3 25.5 204.4 11.5
244.0 26.6 205.4 11.9
(Million Hundredweight) 245.1 247.1 248.2 26.0 26.1 25.9 206.6 208.0 208.6 12.5 13.0 13.6
249.2 25.9 209.2 14.1
249.8 25.4 209.7 14.7
250.8 25.5 210.1 15.2
251.1 25.4 210.0 15.7
126.0 99.5 4.4 15.6 6.5
128.6 101.9 4.4 15.8 6.5
131.1 104.2 4.4 16.0 6.5
133.8 106.8 4.4 16.1 6.5
136.4 109.3 4.3 16.3 6.5
139.1 111.8 4.3 16.4 6.5
141.5 114.2 4.3 16.5 6.5
144.2 116.7 4.3 16.7 6.5
146.7 119.2 4.2 16.8 6.5
149.2 121.6 4.2 16.9 6.5
80.0
81.8
86.1
86.9
85.2
84.8
83.3
82.2
80.1
78.7
77.1
203.1
207.8
214.7
218.0
219.1
221.2
222.3
223.8
224.3
225.4
226.3
25.5 0.0 25.5
25.5 0.0 25.5
26.6 0.0 26.6
26.0 0.0 26.0
26.1 0.0 26.1
25.9 0.0 25.9
25.9 0.0 25.9
25.4 0.0 25.4
25.5 0.0 25.5
25.4 0.0 25.4
24.8 0.0 24.8
5.78 6.50 12.21 5.44 3.53 394.08 362.64 186.66 155.22 222.62
6.29 6.50 12.74 2.10 3.86 409.18 380.05 165.73 136.60 86.01
6.55 6.50 13.38 2.04 4.12 395.73 396.33 150.11 150.72 83.53
6.96 6.50 14.27 2.04 4.49 395.60 424.11 128.59 157.11 83.53
7.41 6.50 15.21 2.04 4.82 409.49 460.99 110.79 162.29 83.53
7.69 6.50 15.80 2.04 5.05 416.66 481.67 97.29 162.31 83.53
7.80 6.50 16.01 2.04 5.09 424.38 491.68 95.05 162.35 83.53
7.99 6.50 16.40 2.04 5.22 433.27 507.13 87.52 161.39 83.53
8.21 6.50 16.85 2.04 5.40 443.24 524.71 76.62 158.08 83.53
(Million Acres) 4.17 4.17 0.02 0.02 3.41 3.40 3.37 3.37
(U.S. Dollars) 7.05 7.26 6.50 6.50 14.44 14.90 2.04 2.04 4.54 4.72 398.73 403.02 432.35 448.43 126.66 116.36 160.28 161.77 83.53 83.53
70 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Upland Cotton Farmers seeded 15.37 million acres to upland cotton in 2000. For the 2001/02 marketing year, planted area is expected to rise to 15.6 million acres. Low returns for competing crops, high energy prices, and increased insurance incentives allow cotton area to hold. Longer term, cotton area falls as cotton returns lag behind corn and soybeans. Planted area is expected to decline, reaching 15.04 million acres by the last year of the baseline. The national average cotton yield rose to 625 pounds per acre in 2000. The largest increase in yield came in the western regions. Longer term, cotton yields grow, but at a slow rate of 0.6 percent per year. In the last year of the baseline, the national average cotton yield is projected to be 676 pounds per acre. Increased textile imports pushed mill use lower in 2000, down to 9.67 million bales. A marked contraction in domestic milling is projected over the baseline. Mill use in 2010/11 is projected to fall to 9.63 million bales. Cotton exports recovered in 2000/01 to 6.88 million bales. Higher world prices and tighter world stocks drove the increase. Exports are projected to continue to grow during the baseline, as the U.S. exports raw cotton and imports textiles. By 2010/11, exports will reach 9.56 million bales. Reflecting stronger world demand, cotton prices are expected to rise for the 2000/01 marketing year to $0.561 per pound. The season-average farm price projection for 2001/02, however, is lower due to higher acreage. By 2010/ 11, cotton prices are expected to rise to $0.614 per pound.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 71
U.S. Upland Cotton n Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
16.44 1.02 15.37 12.93
16.44 1.06 15.60 14.00
16.44 1.09 15.15 13.58
16.43 1.12 15.06 13.49
(Million Acres) 16.43 16.43 16.43 1.14 1.14 1.14 15.05 15.06 15.07 13.49 13.50 13.51
16.43 1.14 15.06 13.51
16.43 1.14 15.06 13.51
16.43 1.14 15.06 13.51
16.43 1.14 15.04 13.49
625 600
640 600
644 600
649 600
(Pounds per Acre) 654 658 662 600 600 600
665 600
669 600
673 600
676 600
20.54 3.67 16.82 0.05
22.70 3.98 18.67 0.05
22.81 4.53 18.23 0.05
22.83 4.52 18.26 0.05
(Million Bales) 22.88 22.94 23.00 4.46 4.39 4.32 18.37 18.50 18.62 0.05 0.05 0.05
23.02 4.24 18.72 0.05
23.03 4.15 18.83 0.05
23.02 4.04 18.93 0.05
22.97 3.92 19.01 0.05
Domestic Use Mill Use
9.67
9.91
9.87
9.85
9.82
9.78
9.76
9.73
9.69
9.66
9.63
Exports
6.88
8.25
8.41
8.51
8.66
8.82
8.98
9.14
9.29
9.43
9.56
Total Use
16.55
18.16
18.29
18.36
18.48
18.61
18.74
18.86
18.98
19.09
19.19
Unaccounted
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
3.98 0.00 3.98
4.53 0.00 4.53
4.52 0.00 4.52
4.46 0.00 4.46
4.39 0.00 4.39
4.32 0.00 4.32
4.24 0.00 4.24
4.15 0.00 4.15
4.04 0.00 4.04
3.92 0.00 3.92
3.77 0.00 3.77
0.561 0.519 0.150 0.651 0.511 304.97 402.47 16.11 113.61 76.38
0.554 0.519 0.057 0.685 0.541 320.00 403.26 5.23 88.49 29.22
0.557 0.519 0.056 0.695 0.550 311.83 408.49 0.00 96.66 28.36
0.561 0.519 0.056 0.700 0.554 312.40 415.92 0.00 103.52 28.36
(U.S. Dollars) 0.567 0.573 0.580 0.519 0.519 0.519 0.056 0.056 0.056 0.710 0.720 0.729 0.563 0.572 0.580 315.61 319.46 324.78 424.10 432.25 440.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 108.48 112.79 115.93 28.36 28.37 28.37
0.587 0.519 0.056 0.737 0.587 330.57 450.05 0.00 119.48 28.37
0.595 0.519 0.056 0.746 0.595 336.66 460.00 0.00 123.35 28.37
0.604 0.519 0.056 0.756 0.604 343.56 469.50 0.00 125.93 28.37
0.614 0.519 0.056 0.767 0.613 351.18 479.76 0.00 128.58 28.37
Area Contract Area CRP Idled Planted Area Harvested Area Yield Actual Program
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
Ending Stocks CCC Inventory "Free" Stocks Prices and Returns Season Avg. Price/lb. Loan Rate/lb. PFC/MLA Payment/lb. Cotlook A Index/lb. Adjusted World Price/lb. Variable Expenses/a. Gross Market Returns/a. LDP Returns/a. Mkt+LDP Net Returns/a. PFC/MLA Payment/a.
05/06
72 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Cottonseed Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
7,011 274 6,439 298
7,820 250 7,320 250
7,645 250 7,145 250
7,656 250 7,156 250
(Thousand Tons) 7,697 7,750 7,796 250 250 250 7,197 7,250 7,296 250 250 250
7,836 250 7,336 250
7,877 250 7,377 250
7,917 250 7,417 250
7,945 250 7,445 250
Domestic Use Crush Other
6,581 2,996 3,585
7,395 3,506 3,889
7,220 3,414 3,806
7,231 3,445 3,785
7,272 3,504 3,769
7,325 3,569 3,757
7,371 3,624 3,747
7,411 3,676 3,734
7,452 3,729 3,723
7,492 3,771 3,721
7,520 3,817 3,703
180
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
6,761
7,570
7,395
7,406
7,447
7,500
7,546
7,586
7,627
7,667
7,695
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
104.26 148.79 17.73 19.43
93.30 136.50 18.13 25.60
94.66 137.35 18.39 25.44
96.80 139.05 19.03 26.09
(U.S. Dollars) 100.07 103.04 105.86 142.27 144.35 146.17 19.81 20.69 21.57 26.72 27.48 28.23
109.22 148.24 22.55 28.88
112.89 150.31 23.61 29.50
115.10 151.89 24.34 30.30
117.37 152.08 25.29 31.08
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices and Returns Farm Price/ton Meal Price/ton Oil Price/cwt Crushing Margin/ton
05/06
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 73
U.S. Cottonseed Me eal Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
1,369 21 1,348 0
1,613 21 1,592 0
1,584 34 1,550 0
1,597 33 1,564 0
(Thousand Tons) 1,624 1,654 1,679 33 33 34 1,591 1,620 1,645 0 0 0
1,704 35 1,669 0
1,728 35 1,693 0
1,748 36 1,712 0
1,769 36 1,733 0
Domestic Use
1,248
1,479
1,451
1,464
1,490
1,519
1,545
1,568
1,592
1,611
1,632
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1,348
1,579
1,551
1,564
1,590
1,619
1,645
1,668
1,692
1,711
1,732
21
34
33
33
33
34
35
35
36
36
37
148.79 164.01
136.50 150.46
137.35 151.41
139.05 153.27
(U.S. Dollars) 142.27 144.35 146.17 156.82 159.12 161.13
148.24 163.41
150.31 165.69
151.89 167.43
152.08 167.64
Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Prices Memphis/ton Memphis/mt
05/06
U.S. Cottonseed Oill Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1,016 49 959 8
1,163 52 1,101 10
1,145 63 1,072 10
1,154 62 1,082 10
(Million Pounds) 1,172 1,192 1,210 62 62 62 1,100 1,121 1,138 10 10 10
1,226 62 1,154 10
1,242 61 1,171 10
1,255 61 1,184 10
1,270 61 1,199 10
Domestic Use
834
974
958
967
985
1,006
1,023
1,040
1,056
1,069
1,084
Exports
130
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
Total Use
964
1,099
1,083
1,092
1,110
1,131
1,148
1,165
1,181
1,194
1,209
52
63
62
62
62
62
62
61
61
61
61
17.73 390.84
18.13 399.73
18.39 405.36
19.03 419.63
(U.S. Dollars) 19.81 20.69 21.57 436.70 456.22 475.46
22.55 497.07
23.61 520.61
24.34 536.65
25.29 557.49
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
Ending Stocks Prices Valley Points/cwt Valley Points/mt
05/06
74 / U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Sugar Due to the PIK program, beet harvested area fell below 1.4 million acres in 2001. Assuming that no additional PIK programs are available for future years, beet area approaches 1.5 million acres. Continued pressure on returns of competing crops leads to a modest increase in cane area in 2001. In the longer term, area remains at about 1 million acres. With modest yield growth assumed in the baseline, domestic sugar production expands from 8.5 million STRV in 2001 to 9.1 million STRV by 2010. As a result, growth in domestic use will be satisfied largely by increased imports from Mexico. Sugar domestic disappearance is projected to continue to increase on a per capita basis. By 2010, total domestic use reaches 11.6 million STRV. Tariff rate reductions will allow Mexico greater access to the U.S. market. By 2010, imports from Mexico are projected to be 1.2 million STRV. Increased sugar stocks have pressured prices downward in 2000. The New York spot raw price is projected to remain near the cane loan rate through 2004. By the end of the baseline, prices fall to $0.17 per pound, leading to heavy loan placements and forfeitures.
U.S. Crops: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 75
U.S. Sugar Crop Pro roduction 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Sugar Beets Harv. Area (1,000 a.) Yield (tons/a.) Prod. (1,000 tons)
1,378 23.60 32,521
1,477 21.32 31,487
1,493 21.48 32,056
1,492 21.63 32,277
1,485 21.78 32,336
1,482 21.93 32,499
1,481 22.09 32,702
1,479 22.24 32,897
1,477 22.39 33,085
1,477 22.55 33,306
1,477 22.70 33,517
Sugarcane Harv. Area (1,000 a.) Yield (tons/a.) Prod. (1,000 tons)
997 34.60 34,495
1,018 35.03 35,642
1,027 35.11 36,051
1,028 35.19 36,191
1,026 35.28 36,193
1,023 35.36 36,182
1,020 35.44 36,159
1,017 35.52 36,129
1,014 35.61 36,095
1,010 35.69 36,055
1,007 35.77 36,010
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Thousand Short Tons, Raw Value, Fiscal Year) 12,972 13,308 13,622 13,941 14,282 2,000 2,167 2,354 2,521 2,695 8,913 8,960 8,968 8,989 9,014 2,059 2,181 2,300 2,431 2,573 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 1,256 276 258 224 188 150 128 268 421 587 768 400 400 400 400 400
14,601 2,892 9,037 2,673 1,256 1,017 0 400
14,898 3,071 9,058 2,769 1,256 1,113 0 400
15,188 3,228 9,084 2,877 1,256 1,221 0 400
U.S. Sugar Supply and a Utilization 2000
2001
2002
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports Non-Mexico TRQ Duty-Free NAFTA High-Tier NAFTA Tariff Other
12,317 1,639 9,042 1,636 1,096 28 5 507
12,541 2,219 8,538 1,784 1,256 128 0 400
12,668 2,002 8,784 1,883 1,256 227 0 400
Utilization Disappearance Exports
10,235 10,111 124
10,539 10,364 175
10,669 10,494 175
10,805 10,630 175
10,954 10,779 175
11,101 10,926 175
11,246 11,071 175
11,390 11,215 175
11,530 11,355 175
11,670 11,495 175
11,813 11,638 175
-137
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ending Stocks
2,219
2,002
2,000
2,167
2,354
2,521
2,695
2,892
3,071
3,228
3,376
Prices N.Y. Spot Raw Sugar Cane Loan Rate
18.40 18.00
18.45 18.00
18.43 18.00
(U.S. Cents per Pound, Fiscal Year) 18.20 17.98 17.80 17.60 17.37 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00
17.17 18.00
17.00 18.00
16.84 18.00
Error Adjustment
U.S. LIVESTOCK AND DAIRY
78 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Cattle and Calves Million Head 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 94 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
U.S. Cattle Prices Dollars per CWT 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 1990
1992
NB Direct Fed Steers
OK City Feeder Steers
2010
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 79
U.S. Pork Production Billion Pounds 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Barrow and Gilt Price National Base 51 - 52% Lean Equivalent Dollars per CWT 60 55
50 45 40
35 30 1990
1992
1994
1996
80 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Poultry Production Billion Pounds 50
40
30
20
10
0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000 Broilers
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Turkeys
U.S. Poultry Prices Dollars per CWT 75
70
65
60
55
50
45 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
12-City Broiler
2002
2004
2006
Eastern Region Turkey
2008
2010
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 81
U.S. Livestock Production Billion Pounds 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Beef
2002 Pork
2004
2006
2008
2010
Broilers
U.S. Meat Net Exports Billion Pounds 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998 Beef
2000 Pork
2002
2004 Broilers
2006
2008
2010
82 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy Cows Million Head 10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
U.S. Milk Production Billion Pounds 190
180
170
160
150
140 1990
1992
1994
2008
2010
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 83
U.S. Cheese Consumption per Person Pounds 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
U.S. Milk Prices Dollars per CWT 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 1990
1992
1994
Class III
Class IV
All Milk
Support
2008
2010
84 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Beef The number of cattle in the United States declined for the fifth consecutive year, to 97.3 million head at the beginning of 2001. Declines in cattle numbers are forecast to moderate in the near future, as beef cows are projected to increase by 200,000 head during 2001. The next peak in the cattle cycle is forecast to occur in 2007 at 103.5 million head, an inventory number similar to the last cyclical peak in 1996. Beef production is projected to decline by over 600 million pounds in 2001. Production will not again reach the 2000 level until 2005 as cattle herds are rebuilt. Annual beef production tops 29 billion pounds near the end of the baseline. Domestic beef demand has shown strength recently, with per-capita consumption increasing 1.5 pounds the last two years despite increases in retail beef prices. The last time both per-capita beef consumption and beef retail prices increased for two consecutive years was 1974-75. If beef demand should weaken as it did in the 1980s and 1990s, the beef industry would not grow to the extent shown in the baseline. The U.S. is projected to become a net exporter of beef in 2006, as beef exports are forecast to increase by almost 50 percent over the ten-year projection period. Cattle prices should continue to be strong over the next three years. The Nebraska direct fed steer price, which has been driven by the increase in beef demand recently, should begin to benefit from reduced supplies in 2001. The Oklahoma feeder steer price is projected at over $95 per cwt for the next three years. This level would be moderated if feed costs were to increase from the low levels projected in the baseline. Net returns to the cow-calf sector of the cattle industry remain positive through the first portion of the baseline due to strong cattle prices. Returns become negative as supplies of beef build toward the end of the projection period.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 85
U.S. Beef Supply an nd Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
98.0 33.5 36.5
97.3 33.4 35.4
97.2 33.6 34.8
97.9 34.0 34.7
(Million Head) 99.4 101.0 34.6 35.2 35.3 35.9
102.6 35.8 36.9
103.5 36.0 37.9
103.3 35.9 38.4
102.5 35.6 38.2
101.6 35.1 38.1
Supply Beginning Stocks Imports Production
30,372 411 3,076 26,885
29,797 460 3,125 26,212
29,539 380 3,225 25,934
29,679 380 3,326 25,974
(Million Pounds) 30,293 30,818 31,611 382 389 394 3,374 3,358 3,314 26,537 27,071 27,903
32,428 399 3,290 28,739
32,845 405 3,300 29,139
32,797 405 3,323 29,069
32,766 404 3,349 29,012
Disappearance Domestic Use Exports
29,912 27,372 2,540
29,417 26,811 2,607
29,159 26,563 2,596
29,298 26,755 2,543
29,904 26,996 2,908
30,424 27,388 3,036
31,212 27,851 3,362
32,022 28,409 3,614
32,440 28,569 3,871
32,393 28,597 3,795
32,364 28,587 3,777
Ending Stocks
460
380
380
382
389
394
399
405
405
404
402
99.3 69.6 0.7%
96.4 67.5 -3.1%
94.6 66.2 -1.8%
94.5 66.1 -0.2%
94.5 66.2 0.0%
(Pounds) 95.1 66.5 0.6%
95.9 67.1 0.8%
97.0 67.9 1.2%
96.7 67.7 -0.3%
96.0 67.2 -0.7%
95.2 66.6 -0.8%
69.65 6.2%
74.49 7.0%
76.00 2.0%
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 76.64 74.16 71.94 69.78 0.8% -3.2% -3.0% -3.0%
68.08 -2.4%
67.20 -1.3%
67.72 0.8%
68.76 1.5%
94.54 14.4% 41.67 8.5%
96.81 2.4% 45.02 8.0%
97.92 1.1% 46.11 2.4%
98.41 0.5% 46.76 1.4%
81.73 -6.3% 39.62 -6.6%
77.65 -5.0% 36.79 -7.1%
75.07 -3.3% 35.78 -2.7%
75.29 0.3% 36.23 1.3%
77.10 2.4% 37.56 3.7%
Beef Retail Change
3.07 6.5%
3.18 3.6%
3.26 2.7%
3.32 1.9%
(U.S. Dollars per Pound) 3.32 3.29 3.29 -0.1% -0.7% 0.0%
3.28 -0.3%
3.32 1.1%
3.36 1.4%
3.45 2.7%
Net Returns Cow - Calf
73.18
87.03
93.71
94.25
(U.S. Dollars per Cow) 72.44 38.74 9.53
-14.44
-29.01
-30.07
-24.40
Cattle and Calves (Jan. 1) Beef Cows (Jan. 1) Total Cattle Slaughter
Per Capita Consumption Carcass Weight Retail Weight Change Prices 1100-1300 lb. Nebraska Direct Steers Change 600-700 lb. Oklahoma City Feeder Steers Change Utility Cows, Sioux Falls Change
94.07 -4.4% 45.42 -2.8%
2005
87.24 -7.3% 42.41 -6.6%
86 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Pork Barrow and gilt prices are projected at $40.60 per cwt in 2001 after averaging almost $45 per cwt in 2000. An increase in hog supplies that could lead to packing capacity constraints in 2002 drives hog prices close to levels seen in 1998 and 1999. For the remainder of the baseline, low feed costs contribute to barrow and gilt prices that average about $5 below the previous ten-year period. Pork production is forecast to set another record in 2001 at almost 19.6 billion pounds. Provided that adequate slaughter capacity exists over the period, pork production grows to nearly 22 billion pounds by the end of the projection period. The pork breeding herd is projected to continue its long-term decline, falling below 6 million head during the baseline. Continued strong growth in productivity overshadows decreasing breeding inventory numbers. The U.S. is projected to resume its growth in pork exports in 2001. Year-to-year increases in pork exports result in an export level of almost 2.3 billion pounds by 2010. Per capita consumption of pork is forecast to be in the 53 to 54 pound range over the baseline period, as steady supplies of pork are offered to the domestic market.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 87
U.S. Pork Supply an nd Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
53.6 6.28 97.8
55.3 6.34 100.9
54.6 6.05 103.4
53.8 5.85 101.6
(Million Head) 54.4 55.4 5.93 6.03 101.6 103.6
Supply Beginning Stocks Imports Production
20,401 489 977 18,935
21,148 525 1,044 19,579
21,718 551 1,023 20,144
Disappearance Domestic Use Exports
19,876 18,609 1,267
20,597 19,223 1,374
Ending Stocks
525
Hogs on Farms Market (Dec. 1) Breeding (Dec. 1) Total Hog Slaughter
Per Capita Consumption Carcass Weight Retail Weight Change Prices Barrows & Gilts, Natl. Base 51-52% lean equiv. Change Sows, IA-S. Minn. #1-2, 300-400 Lb. * Change Pork Retail Change Net Returns Farrow - Finish * 6 Market prior to 1999.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
54.8 5.89 105.5
54.5 5.73 104.9
55.0 5.77 105.2
55.7 5.81 107.0
55.5 5.71 108.6
21,606 551 1,141 19,914
(Million Pounds) 21,726 22,169 22,638 522 523 540 1,187 1,144 1,112 20,016 20,502 20,986
22,710 549 1,183 20,977
22,914 536 1,239 21,139
23,324 535 1,238 21,550
23,739 550 1,219 21,969
21,167 19,655 1,512
21,084 19,547 1,537
21,203 19,608 1,595
21,629 19,902 1,727
22,089 20,221 1,868
22,174 20,235 1,939
22,379 20,341 2,038
22,774 20,608 2,165
23,179 20,895 2,284
551
551
522
523
540
549
536
535
550
560
67.5 52.4 -2.9%
69.1 53.6 2.4%
70.0 54.3 1.3%
69.0 53.6 -1.4%
68.6 53.3 -0.6%
(Pounds) 69.1 53.6 0.6%
69.6 54.0 0.8%
69.1 53.6 -0.8%
68.9 53.4 -0.3%
69.2 53.7 0.5%
69.6 54.0 0.6%
44.70 31.5%
40.60 -9.2%
34.54 -14.9%
42.46 8.3%
45.88 8.1%
43.48 -5.2%
40.91 -5.9%
29.83 54.8%
27.86 -6.6%
26.02 -6.6%
32.97 26.7%
31.13 -7.2%
35.21 13.1%
38.26 8.7%
35.31 -7.7%
33.88 -4.1%
2.58 6.9%
2.58 -0.2%
2.56 -0.7%
2.67 4.2%
(U.S. Dollars per Pound) 2.75 2.73 2.71 3.0% -0.6% -0.6%
2.79 2.8%
2.87 3.1%
2.86 -0.3%
2.86 -0.1%
11.46
6.60
0.45
4.59
7.01
4.17
1.10
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 41.46 45.63 42.95 39.20 20.0% 10.1% -5.9% -8.7% 36.83 11.7%
33.56 -8.9%
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 6.19 9.47 6.38 2.34
88 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Poultry Broiler production is expected to grow by over 800 million pounds in 2001, reaching almost 30.9 billion pounds. Broiler production will continue to grow over the forecast period but at a slower rate than the growth observed during the 1990s. Turkey production is expected to grow 2.6 percent in 2001. Annual growth in the 1-1.5 percent range for the remainder of the projection period will result in production of just over 6 billion pounds in 2010. Egg production growth is expected to slow to 1.2 percent in 2001, the lowest annual growth rate since 1995. Steady increases are then forecast, with production of nearly 7.9 billion dozen eggs forecast for 2010. The 2000 twelve-city broiler price of just over $0.56 per pound was the lowest annual broiler price observed since 1994. While slight price increases are forecast in the short run, the low feed cost forecasts contained in the baseline limit long-term broiler price strength. Turkey prices reached their highest annual level since 1986 at $0.70 per pound in 2000. Prices are forecast to stabilize in the $0.67-$0.69 per pound range over the baseline period. Per capita broiler consumption will continue its steady rise throughout the projection period, increasing 2-3 percent per year to reach almost 95 pounds per person by 2010. Net returns to the poultry sector are forecast to be relatively stable over the projection period. Changes in feed costs from those shown in the baseline would quickly impact the returns seen by poultry producers.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 89
U.S. Broiler Supply y and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
Supply Beginning Stocks Production
30,871 796 30,075
31,664 800 30,864
32,581 822 31,759
Disappearance Domestic Use Exports
30,076 24,603 5,473
30,846 25,304 5,542
Ending Stocks
800
Per Capita Consumption Retail Weight Retail Weight less Pet Food Change Prices 12-City Wholesale Change Broiler Retail Change Net Returns
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
33,524 827 32,696
(Million Pounds) 34,526 35,438 36,386 834 844 849 33,691 34,594 35,537
37,342 855 36,487
38,360 862 37,497
39,397 874 38,524
40,511 885 39,626
31,758 26,123 5,635
32,693 27,080 5,613
33,685 28,101 5,585
34,593 28,892 5,701
35,535 29,834 5,701
36,484 30,759 5,724
37,490 31,678 5,813
38,516 32,533 5,983
39,614 33,487 6,127
822
827
834
844
849
855
862
874
885
901
89.2 76.7 -0.6%
91.0 78.0 1.8%
93.1 79.8 2.2%
95.6 81.9 2.6%
98.4 84.1 2.8%
(Pounds) 100.3 85.6 1.8%
102.7 87.6 2.3%
105.0 89.5 2.1%
107.2 91.3 2.0%
109.2 92.9 1.7%
111.5 94.7 2.0%
56.20 -3.3% 155.10 0.5%
57.07 1.5% 156.80 1.1%
57.32 0.4% 158.30 1.0%
57.34 0.0% 158.96 0.4%
(U.S. Cents per Pound) 57.35 57.17 57.24 0.0% -0.3% 0.1% 159.23 159.10 160.23 0.2% -0.1% 0.7%
57.43 0.3% 161.44 0.8%
57.55 0.2% 162.94 0.9%
57.83 0.5% 163.49 0.3%
58.24 0.7% 164.56 0.7%
9.44
9.79
9.83
9.68
8.67
8.51
8.53
8.67
9.44
2005
8.97
8.76
90 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Turkey Supply y and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Supply Beginning Stocks Production
5,593 254 5,339
5,729 250 5,479
5,826 272 5,554
5,906 279 5,627
(Million Pounds) 5,988 6,069 6,140 285 292 302 5,703 5,777 5,838
6,209 309 5,900
6,280 315 5,965
6,357 323 6,034
6,435 330 6,105
Disappearance Domestic Use Exports
5,345 4,911 434
5,458 5,038 420
5,547 5,120 427
5,622 5,188 434
5,696 5,251 445
5,768 5,307 461
5,833 5,360 473
5,895 5,413 482
5,959 5,460 499
6,028 5,516 512
6,097 5,572 526
Ending Stocks
250
272
279
285
292
302
309
315
323
330
338
Per Capita Consumption Change
17.8 -0.9%
18.1 1.7%
18.2 0.7%
18.3 0.4%
18.4 0.3%
(Pounds) 18.4 0.2%
18.4 0.1%
18.5 0.2%
18.5 0.0%
18.5 0.2%
18.6 0.2%
Prices Eastern Region Wholesale Change Retail Change
70.50 2.2% 103.42 4.1%
68.48 -2.9% 103.41 0.0%
67.05 -2.1% 102.16 -1.2%
67.15 0.2% 103.53 1.3%
(U.S. Cents per Pound) 67.74 67.51 67.60 0.9% -0.3% 0.1% 105.54 105.36 105.78 1.9% -0.2% 0.4%
68.01 0.6% 106.72 0.9%
68.25 0.4% 107.53 0.8%
68.76 0.7% 108.63 1.0%
68.92 0.2% 108.98 0.3%
11.45
8.84
7.01
6.87
6.45
6.37
6.58
6.43
Net Returns
7.17
2005
6.61
6.38
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 91
U.S. Egg Supply and nd Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports
7,044 8 7,028 9
7,130 10 7,115 5
7,217 5 7,207 5
7,310 5 7,300 5
(Million Dozen) 7,398 7,478 7,563 5 5 5 7,388 7,468 7,553 5 5 5
7,647 5 7,637 5
7,731 5 7,721 5
7,817 5 7,807 5
7,904 5 7,894 5
Disappearance Civilian Disappearance Shell Egg Breaking Egg Hatching Egg Exports
7,034
7,125
7,212
7,305
7,393
7,473
7,558
7,642
7,726
7,812
7,899
4,205 1,720 942 168
4,252 1,754 949 170
4,284 1,788 968 172
4,313 1,828 990 173
4,336 1,869 1,012 175
4,354 1,909 1,032 177
4,374 1,952 1,054 179
4,392 1,993 1,076 180
4,408 2,037 1,099 182
4,423 2,081 1,124 184
4,439 2,124 1,150 186
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Per Capita Consumption Shell Egg Change Breaking Egg Change Total
183.0 0.5% 74.9 1.3% 257.9
183.4 0.2% 75.7 1.1% 259.1
183.2 -0.1% 76.5 1.1% 259.6
182.8 -0.2% 77.5 1.3% 260.3
182.2 -0.3% 78.5 1.4% 260.7
(Eggs) 181.4 -0.4% 79.5 1.3% 260.9
180.7 -0.4% 80.6 1.4% 261.3
179.9 -0.4% 81.6 1.3% 261.6
179.1 -0.5% 82.8 1.4% 261.8
178.2 -0.5% 83.9 1.3% 262.1
177.4 -0.5% 84.9 1.2% 262.3
Prices N.Y. Grade A Lg. Wholesale Change Shell Egg Retail Change
68.90 5.0% 90.94 -5.2%
70.91 2.9% 93.38 2.7%
72.19 1.8% 94.83 1.6%
72.77 0.8% 95.74 1.0%
(U.S. Cents per Dozen) 72.03 72.37 72.80 -1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 95.29 96.00 96.86 -0.5% 0.7% 0.9%
72.20 -0.8% 96.65 -0.2%
72.95 1.0% 97.89 1.3%
73.23 0.4% 98.67 0.8%
73.57 0.5% 99.58 0.9%
6.41
7.79
8.46
8.75
6.71
7.09
7.03
6.99
Ending Stock
Net Returns
7.69
2005
7.66
7.70
92 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy Milk production growth is expected to slow in 2001 relative to the previous two years. However, 2001 milk production is still forecast to top 170 billion pounds. After a slowdown in milk production growth in 2002 associated with the elimination of the price support program, milk production will grow at an annual rate near 1 percent for the remainder of the baseline, reaching almost 187 billion pounds in 2010. After increases in 1999 and 2000, the U.S. dairy herd continues its historical decline in 2001, falling to just over 8.5 million head by 2010. Continued increases in production per cow more than offset the declines in cow numbers. Cheese demand has been the major driver for increases in milk production over the last few years. The forecast growth in milk production would look much more pessimistic if cheese demand were to soften. The all-milk price is projected to show a slight increase in 2001, to $12.55 per cwt. When the price support program ends at the end of 2001 in accordance with current law, the all-milk price tumbles nearly 80 cents per cwt. The slowdown in production growth associated with the lower 2002 price then allows prices to strengthen moderately over the baseline, to $13.35 per cwt in 2010.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 93
U.S. Milk Componen ent Supply and Utilization Milk-Fat Basis Fluid Use Whole Milk 2% Milk 1% and Skim Milk Other Product Use American Cheese Other Cheese Butter Nonfat Dry Evap and Condensed Frozen Products Whey Products Other Farm Use Milk Production % Fat Total Fat Supply Residual Fat Solids-Not-Fat Basis Fluid Use Whole Milk 2% Milk 1% and Skim Milk Other Product Use American Cheese Other Cheese Butter Nonfat Dry Total Nonfat Dry Nonfat Dry in Other Evap and Condensed Frozen Products Whey Products Other Farm Use Milk Production % SNF Total SNF Supply Residual Whey Residual SNF
2000
2001
2002
2003
1,534 611 351 83 489
1,528 599 350 86 493
1,524 592 349 89 494
4,291 1,218 1,152 1,054 6 69 710 12 71
4,360 1,234 1,189 1,062 6 68 717 12 71
45
44
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Million Pounds Milk Equivalent) 1,522 1,524 1,525 1,527 583 575 567 559 348 346 344 341 92 95 98 101 499 508 516 525
1,529 552 338 104 534
1,532 545 335 108 544
1,536 539 332 111 554
1,541 533 329 114 564
4,377 1,269 1,211 1,006 5 72 729 12 74
4,440 1,299 1,237 1,007 5 71 735 12 73
4,496 1,318 1,261 1,013 5 71 742 12 73
4,560 1,343 1,285 1,021 5 70 750 12 74
4,624 1,369 1,309 1,030 5 69 757 12 74
4,690 1,395 1,334 1,038 5 69 765 12 74
4,757 1,422 1,358 1,046 5 68 772 12 74
4,825 1,449 1,383 1,054 5 68 780 12 74
4,895 1,479 1,408 1,062 4 67 788 12 75
44
42
41
39
38
37
36
34
33
167,953 170,065 170,820 172,486 174,203 176,148 178,150 180,198 182,274 184,412 186,624 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 3.66% 6,147 6,224 6,252 6,313 6,376 6,447 6,520 6,595 6,671 6,749 6,830 288
293
307
309
315
323
331
339
347
355
362
5,072 1,619 1,606 1,573 273
5,087 1,589 1,599 1,624 275
5,125 1,568 1,597 1,684 276
5,154 1,545 1,589 1,741 279
5,191 1,525 1,582 1,800 284
5,219 1,503 1,571 1,857 288
5,252 1,483 1,559 1,916 293
5,285 1,464 1,546 1,976 299
5,319 1,446 1,532 2,037 304
5,356 1,429 1,517 2,100 310
5,396 1,414 1,502 2,165 315
6,514 1,117 1,163 39 906 1,436 -531 532 1,021 1,365 371
6,600 1,132 1,200 40 926 1,353 -426 528 1,031 1,370 372
6,564 1,164 1,223 38 689 1,164 -475 557 1,048 1,462 383
6,641 1,192 1,250 38 675 1,149 -474 550 1,057 1,498 382
6,720 1,209 1,274 38 664 1,129 -465 545 1,068 1,539 383
6,817 1,232 1,298 38 667 1,124 -458 540 1,078 1,580 384
6,915 1,255 1,322 39 670 1,120 -450 536 1,089 1,620 384
7,014 1,279 1,347 39 673 1,116 -443 531 1,100 1,660 385
7,115 1,304 1,371 39 676 1,111 -436 527 1,111 1,701 386
7,218 1,330 1,396 39 679 1,107 -429 523 1,122 1,742 387
7,322 1,356 1,422 40 681 1,103 -422 519 1,134 1,782 388
107
104
104
100
96
93
90
87
84
81
78
167,953 170,065 170,820 172,486 174,203 176,148 178,150 180,198 182,274 184,412 186,624 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 14,612 14,796 14,861 15,006 15,156 15,325 15,499 15,677 15,858 16,044 16,236 2,147
2,199
2,251
2,303
2,341
2,385
2,430
2,475
2,522
2,570
2,619
798
805
819
809
807
810
813
Min. FMMO Class Prices Class I Mover Class II Class III Class IV
11.64 12.34 9.95 11.67
12.27 12.97 9.77 12.27
All Milk Price
12.33
12.55
815
817
819
820
10.95 11.65 9.79 10.95
(U.S. Dollars per Hundredweight) 11.55 11.78 11.88 12.00 12.25 12.48 12.58 12.70 10.47 10.66 10.82 11.00 11.55 11.78 11.88 12.00
12.12 12.82 11.18 12.12
12.22 12.92 11.34 12.22
12.32 13.02 11.52 12.32
12.46 13.16 11.75 12.46
11.78
12.39
12.96
13.07
13.19
13.35
12.59
12.70
12.83
94 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
State-Level Dairy Supply Dairy cow numbers continue to show strong increases in California and Idaho over the projection period, with these states registering 201,000 more cows than 2000 inventories, up 11 and 32 percent, respectively. Increases in western herd numbers are more than offset by the decreases in Wisconsin and Minnesota dairy cows, down in 2010 from 2000 levels by 22 and 32 percent, respectively. National milk production per cow increases by almost 4,000 pounds over the projection period, though wide productivity variation exists among states. Though state-level milk prices tend to move in the same direction over the baseline, the end of the support program results in differences in the magnitude of milk price declines. Areas of the country with high fluid use or Class IV use see the largest decline in milk prices in 2002.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 95
U.S. Dairy Cows by y State 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
25 1 139 42 1,523 88 26 11 157 87 8 347 120 147 215 91 132 59 40 84 23 298 534 36 154 18 77 25 19 16 250 693 71 50 262 91 90 617 2 23 102 95 348 96 160 120 247 17 1,352 6
22 1 143 42 1,542 91 24 11 157 86 8 365 116 155 213 94 131 56 38 82 21 293 512 34 150 18 79 25 18 15 261 681 69 51 265 91 91 609 2 21 102 93 341 99 159 119 247 16 1,312 5
20 1 147 41 1,558 93 22 11 155 84 7 379 112 160 210 97 128 54 36 81 19 286 490 32 145 18 80 25 18 14 271 663 67 51 263 90 91 599 1 20 102 90 333 100 158 118 245 15 1,274 5
18 1 150 40 1,564 94 22 11 153 83 7 393 109 163 208 97 125 53 35 79 17 281 468 30 141 18 80 25 17 13 282 644 65 51 263 89 92 583 1 19 102 88 324 102 157 117 244 14 1,233 5
(Thousand Head) 17 16 14 1 1 1 154 157 159 40 39 38 1,575 1,591 1,608 95 95 95 21 20 20 10 10 10 151 150 148 81 80 78 7 6 6 405 417 427 106 103 100 165 166 166 206 204 201 98 99 99 123 120 118 51 50 49 35 34 34 78 77 76 15 14 12 276 272 268 448 430 414 29 27 26 136 133 129 18 18 18 81 81 81 25 25 25 17 16 16 12 12 11 293 304 314 631 624 617 63 61 59 51 50 49 262 261 260 88 87 87 92 92 92 573 567 562 1 1 1 18 18 17 102 102 102 87 85 84 316 308 300 104 105 106 156 156 155 116 116 115 244 244 243 13 12 12 1,198 1,169 1,143 4 4 4
13 1 162 38 1,627 95 20 10 146 77 6 436 97 166 199 100 115 48 33 75 11 264 399 24 125 18 80 25 16 10 325 610 58 48 258 86 92 557 1 17 102 83 293 107 155 115 243 11 1,119 4
12 1 164 37 1,647 95 19 10 143 75 6 445 94 165 197 100 112 47 32 74 10 261 385 23 122 17 80 25 16 10 335 603 56 46 255 85 92 554 1 17 102 82 286 108 154 114 242 10 1,097 3
12 1 166 36 1,668 95 19 10 141 74 5 452 91 165 195 100 108 47 32 73 9 257 372 22 118 17 79 25 16 9 346 596 54 44 252 85 92 551 1 16 102 81 280 108 154 114 241 10 1,077 3
11 1 168 35 1,689 95 19 10 139 72 5 459 88 165 192 100 105 46 31 73 8 254 361 20 115 16 78 25 16 9 357 590 52 41 249 84 91 549 1 16 102 80 273 109 154 114 241 9 1,060 3
United States
9,227
9,173
9,077
8,969
8,888
8,716
8,666
8,620
8,578
8,826
8,769
96 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Milk Production on by State
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming United States
2000
2001
2002
2003
343 13 3,021 521 32,244 1,917 480 175 2,457 1,436 116 7,220 2,094 2,524 3,934 1,510 1,700 707 672 1,322 393 5,633 9,503 546 2,258 313 1,273 496 314 266 5,236 11,968 1,189 727 4,609 1,295 1,681 11,156 28 369 1,634 1,405 5,699 1,695 2,791 1,905 5,573 265 23,249 77
321 12 3,172 527 33,113 2,013 450 175 2,502 1,448 111 7,734 2,081 2,715 3,980 1,601 1,724 696 651 1,322 364 5,638 9,270 530 2,235 322 1,331 505 311 253 5,518 11,999 1,174 747 4,734 1,306 1,729 11,221 25 357 1,659 1,404 5,679 1,774 2,831 1,923 5,678 255 22,871 73
293 12 3,301 522 33,700 2,086 422 175 2,503 1,437 106 8,187 2,046 2,839 3,986 1,670 1,708 675 632 1,307 331 5,609 9,070 508 2,185 328 1,370 510 303 240 5,831 11,848 1,148 759 4,787 1,310 1,745 11,199 22 339 1,675 1,377 5,618 1,819 2,838 1,923 5,707 241 22,502 69
274 12 3,451 524 34,528 2,149 412 176 2,530 1,444 102 8,682 2,031 2,965 4,033 1,718 1,714 668 628 1,309 304 5,623 8,866 493 2,167 335 1,417 519 301 229 6,178 11,737 1,136 773 4,886 1,324 1,789 11,122 20 329 1,708 1,370 5,570 1,887 2,878 1,947 5,798 230 22,135 66
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Million Pounds) 257 241 227 11 11 11 3,593 3,729 3,861 525 524 523 35,329 36,209 37,135 2,202 2,244 2,285 406 404 402 177 178 179 2,551 2,568 2,580 1,447 1,447 1,446 99 96 93 9,154 9,607 10,043 2,014 1,995 1,976 3,057 3,125 3,182 4,071 4,105 4,136 1,764 1,808 1,851 1,715 1,711 1,703 661 656 653 628 626 624 1,310 1,310 1,310 279 256 234 5,641 5,659 5,678 8,677 8,504 8,347 477 462 446 2,146 2,122 2,099 339 342 343 1,454 1,485 1,510 527 534 542 299 297 296 220 210 202 6,525 6,879 7,239 11,719 11,783 11,848 1,122 1,108 1,093 779 778 772 4,973 5,046 5,110 1,335 1,346 1,356 1,824 1,855 1,883 11,115 11,186 11,271 18 16 15 322 316 312 1,739 1,770 1,801 1,367 1,365 1,364 5,519 5,467 5,418 1,944 1,994 2,040 2,916 2,954 2,993 1,969 1,991 2,013 5,887 5,972 6,056 220 210 200 21,820 21,589 21,390 63 61 59
215 11 3,990 520 38,105 2,323 401 180 2,589 1,443 91 10,463 1,955 3,236 4,165 1,893 1,691 652 621 1,311 214 5,698 8,207 430 2,075 343 1,529 550 296 193 7,607 11,910 1,078 760 5,162 1,366 1,908 11,369 14 309 1,832 1,365 5,371 2,081 3,034 2,037 6,137 190 21,221 57
203 11 4,114 517 39,116 2,358 399 181 2,594 1,439 88 10,867 1,933 3,288 4,191 1,934 1,675 651 618 1,313 195 5,718 8,080 415 2,052 341 1,545 557 296 185 7,981 11,968 1,063 741 5,203 1,376 1,930 11,478 13 307 1,862 1,366 5,326 2,119 3,074 2,061 6,214 181 21,079 55
193 10 4,235 513 40,160 2,391 399 182 2,596 1,433 85 11,259 1,911 3,339 4,216 1,975 1,656 652 613 1,315 178 5,740 7,970 399 2,029 338 1,556 565 297 178 8,364 12,026 1,047 717 5,234 1,386 1,950 11,602 12 306 1,893 1,369 5,284 2,154 3,116 2,086 6,291 171 20,970 53
184 10 4,353 508 41,237 2,421 398 183 2,594 1,426 83 11,639 1,888 3,389 4,240 2,015 1,633 653 608 1,319 162 5,763 7,878 383 2,006 335 1,565 573 298 170 8,754 12,086 1,031 687 5,257 1,395 1,967 11,740 12 305 1,924 1,372 5,244 2,187 3,159 2,112 6,367 162 20,896 51
167,953 170,065 170,820 172,486 174,203 176,148 178,150 180,198 182,274 184,412 186,624
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 97
State-Level All Milk k Prices 2000
2001
2002
2003
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
14.86 20.96 11.81 12.40 11.38 13.21 14.43 13.23 15.56 14.36 26.52 10.65 11.42 13.15 11.57 10.90 13.72 14.66 14.23 12.87 14.73 12.90 11.91 14.66 11.70 12.52 11.32 11.59 13.57 13.07 12.29 13.28 15.33 11.12 12.63 12.50 12.34 13.57 13.47 14.66 12.32 12.90 13.26 12.19 13.63 14.71 12.34 13.13 11.64 10.92
15.35 21.32 12.16 12.89 11.44 13.47 14.58 13.63 16.18 14.85 26.86 10.92 11.68 13.59 11.83 11.15 14.31 15.15 14.38 13.27 14.88 13.34 11.88 15.15 12.19 12.79 11.58 11.86 13.72 13.47 12.60 13.69 15.93 11.09 13.06 12.75 12.70 13.97 13.62 15.26 12.58 13.39 13.58 12.46 13.78 15.11 12.70 13.56 11.61 11.19
14.26 21.83 11.30 11.80 10.64 12.77 13.28 12.68 14.88 13.76 27.01 10.19 10.98 12.59 11.13 10.45 13.04 14.06 13.08 12.32 13.58 12.34 11.65 14.06 11.10 12.06 10.87 11.12 12.42 12.52 11.80 12.74 14.66 10.86 12.06 12.05 11.81 13.02 12.32 13.99 11.87 12.30 12.78 11.72 12.48 14.16 11.81 12.56 11.38 10.46
14.87 22.46 11.92 12.41 11.23 13.40 13.90 13.30 15.48 14.37 27.63 10.82 11.61 13.20 11.76 11.08 13.64 14.67 13.70 12.94 14.20 12.95 12.31 14.67 11.71 12.68 11.51 11.75 13.04 13.14 12.43 13.36 15.26 11.52 12.68 12.68 12.43 13.64 12.94 14.59 12.51 12.91 13.40 12.35 13.10 14.78 12.43 13.18 12.04 11.08
United States
12.33
12.55
11.78
12.39
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Dollars per Hundredweight) 15.09 15.20 15.34 22.67 22.79 22.93 12.14 12.26 12.40 12.63 12.74 12.87 11.41 11.51 11.63 13.61 13.74 13.89 14.12 14.24 14.37 13.52 13.64 13.77 15.71 15.81 15.93 14.59 14.70 14.84 27.84 27.97 28.11 11.03 11.15 11.30 11.82 11.95 12.10 13.42 13.54 13.67 11.97 12.10 12.25 11.29 11.42 11.57 13.87 13.97 14.10 14.89 15.00 15.14 13.92 14.04 14.17 13.16 13.28 13.41 14.42 14.54 14.67 13.17 13.29 13.42 12.51 12.66 12.82 14.89 15.00 15.14 11.93 12.04 12.17 12.90 13.02 13.17 11.72 11.84 11.99 11.97 12.09 12.24 13.26 13.38 13.51 13.36 13.48 13.61 12.64 12.77 12.91 13.58 13.69 13.83 15.48 15.58 15.71 11.72 11.87 12.03 12.90 13.01 13.15 12.89 13.02 13.17 12.65 12.77 12.91 13.86 13.98 14.11 13.16 13.28 13.41 14.81 14.92 15.04 12.72 12.84 12.99 13.13 13.24 13.37 13.61 13.74 13.88 12.57 12.69 12.84 13.32 13.44 13.57 15.00 15.12 15.25 12.65 12.77 12.91 13.40 13.51 13.65 12.24 12.39 12.56 11.30 11.42 11.57
15.47 23.07 12.54 13.00 11.75 14.04 14.51 13.91 16.05 14.97 28.25 11.45 12.24 13.81 12.39 11.72 14.22 15.27 14.31 13.55 14.81 13.56 12.99 15.27 12.30 13.32 12.14 12.38 13.65 13.75 13.05 13.97 15.83 12.20 13.28 13.32 13.05 14.25 13.55 15.16 13.14 13.50 14.03 12.98 13.71 15.39 13.05 13.78 12.73 11.72
15.57 23.19 12.66 13.11 11.85 14.16 14.63 14.03 16.15 15.07 28.37 11.57 12.37 13.92 12.52 11.85 14.32 15.37 14.43 13.67 14.93 13.67 13.14 15.37 12.41 13.44 12.27 12.51 13.77 13.87 13.17 14.08 15.93 12.35 13.39 13.45 13.16 14.37 13.67 15.26 13.27 13.61 14.15 13.11 13.83 15.51 13.16 13.89 12.88 11.84
15.69 23.32 12.79 13.23 11.96 14.30 14.75 14.15 16.26 15.19 28.50 11.71 12.51 14.04 12.66 11.99 14.42 15.49 14.55 13.79 15.05 13.79 13.31 15.49 12.53 13.58 12.41 12.65 13.89 13.99 13.31 14.21 16.04 12.52 13.52 13.59 13.29 14.49 13.79 15.37 13.41 13.73 14.28 13.25 13.95 15.63 13.29 14.02 13.04 11.98
15.85 23.48 12.96 13.38 12.11 14.48 14.91 14.31 16.40 15.35 28.67 11.89 12.69 14.20 12.84 12.16 14.56 15.65 14.71 13.96 15.21 13.95 13.52 15.65 12.68 13.75 12.59 12.82 14.06 14.16 13.48 14.37 16.18 12.73 13.68 13.76 13.46 14.66 13.96 15.51 13.59 13.88 14.45 13.42 14.11 15.79 13.46 14.18 13.25 12.15
12.96
13.07
13.19
13.35
12.59
2005
12.70
12.83
98 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy Products Cheese consumption per person is expected to grow almost 4 pounds from 2000 to 2010. While this represents strong growth, it is still below the additional 6 pounds consumed in 2000 versus 1990. Cheese prices average around $1.15 per pound over the next two years before slowly increasing to $1.30 per pound by the end of the projection period. Butter prices show annual growth over the next few years, almost reaching $1.40 per pound by 2003. Prices then hover near $1.40 per pound for the remainder of the baseline. Nonfat dry milk prices take the biggest hit in 2002 as the price support program ends, falling 20 percent to $0.82 per pound. Though slowly increasing from this point, prices do not get above $1 per pound for the remainder of the forecast.
U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 99
U.S. Dairy Product Supply S and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Butter Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks Gov't Comm. CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP
1,315 36 1,332 13 30 0 30 4
1,324 36 1,348 13 30 0 30 12
1,254 36 1,278 13 30 0 30 12
1,256 36 1,279 13 29 0 29 12
(Million Pounds) 1,264 1,274 1,284 36 36 36 1,286 1,296 1,306 13 13 13 29 30 30 0 0 0 29 30 30 12 12 12
1,294 36 1,316 13 31 0 31 12
1,304 36 1,326 13 31 0 31 12
1,314 36 1,336 13 32 0 32 12
1,324 36 1,346 13 32 0 32 12
American Cheese Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks Gov't Comm. CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP
3,709 65 3,646 51 535 0 535 15
3,760 65 3,757 52 550 0 550 55
3,864 65 3,855 53 571 0 570 5
3,958 65 3,962 54 577 0 577 5
4,016 65 4,010 55 593 0 593 5
4,092 65 4,082 55 613 0 612 5
4,169 65 4,159 55 631 0 631 5
4,249 65 4,239 55 650 0 650 5
4,330 65 4,321 55 670 0 670 5
4,415 65 4,406 55 689 0 689 5
4,504 65 4,495 55 707 0 707 5
Other Cheese Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks
4,612 364 4,886 87 166
4,760 364 5,037 87 167
4,851 364 5,127 87 167
4,955 364 5,233 87 167
5,051 364 5,327 87 167
5,146 364 5,423 87 168
5,243 364 5,519 87 168
5,340 364 5,617 87 169
5,438 364 5,714 87 170
5,537 364 5,813 87 170
5,637 364 5,914 87 171
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks Gov't Comm. CCC Net Rem. inc DEIP
1,477 12 814 205 716 587 129 677
1,391 12 894 205 1,016 887 129 534
1,197 12 1,030 205 988 853 135 150
1,181 12 1,020 205 953 819 134 150
1,161 12 1,018 185 919 785 134 150
1,156 12 1,014 185 886 751 135 150
1,152 12 1,010 185 852 717 135 150
1,147 12 1,005 185 818 683 135 150
1,143 12 1,001 185 784 649 135 150
1,139 12 996 185 751 615 136 150
1,135 12 992 185 717 581 136 150
658 12 584 86 35
653 12 578 86 36
689 12 614 86 37
680 12 606 86 38
674 12 600 86 38
668 12 593 86 39
662 12 587 86 40
657 12 582 86 41
651 12 577 86 41
646 12 572 86 42
642 12 567 86 43
Evap. and Condensed Milk Production Imports Domestic Use Total Foreign Use Ending Stocks
2005
100 / U.S. Livestock and Dairy: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy Product Supply S and Utilization (continued) Per Capita Consumption Butter Nonfat Dry Milk Total Cheese American Other Total Fluid Milk Whole 2% Lowfat Other Ice Cream Wholesale Prices Butter, AA, Central States Cheese, Am., 40#, WI Asmbly Pts Nonfat Dry Milk, AA, Cntral St Evaporated Retail Prices Butter, salted, AA, stick Cheese, Natural Cheddar Milk, Frsh, Whole Fortified Milk, Frsh, Lowfat Fortified
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4.8 3.0 30.9 13.2 17.7 219.8 67.9 63.0 71.5 17.4 29.1
4.8 3.2 31.6 13.5 18.1 218.8 66.1 62.2 73.2 17.3 29.2
4.6 3.7 32.0 13.7 18.3 218.6 64.7 61.5 75.2 17.2 29.4
4.5 3.6 32.5 14.0 18.5 218.1 63.1 60.7 77.0 17.3 29.4
4.5 3.6 32.7 14.0 18.6 218.0 61.8 59.9 78.9 17.4 29.5
(Pounds) 4.5 3.5 33.0 14.2 18.8 217.7 60.4 59.0 80.8 17.5 29.5
4.5 3.5 33.3 14.3 19.0 217.4 59.1 58.1 82.6 17.7 29.5
4.5 3.4 33.6 14.5 19.2 217.3 57.8 57.1 84.5 17.9 29.6
4.5 3.4 34.0 14.6 19.3 217.2 56.6 56.1 86.4 18.0 29.6
4.5 3.3 34.3 14.8 19.5 217.2 55.5 55.1 88.3 18.2 29.7
4.5 3.3 34.7 15.0 19.7 217.4 54.5 54.1 90.3 18.4 29.7
118.08 115.89 102.50 139.75
121.62 114.74 102.58 139.05
132.26 115.35 81.76 136.30
138.51 121.37 85.64 138.33
(Cents per Pound) 141.01 140.05 139.29 122.75 123.80 125.11 87.02 88.69 90.52 138.89 139.06 139.45
138.68 126.47 92.24 139.81
138.00 127.66 93.71 139.97
137.62 129.03 95.13 140.18
137.83 130.84 96.64 140.65
2.49 3.82 2.75 2.62
2.57 3.85 2.83 2.70
2.67 3.88 2.65 2.53
2.78 4.03 2.73 2.61
2.85 4.20 2.81 2.68
2.86 4.25 2.82 2.69
2.87 4.30 2.84 2.71
2.90 4.36 2.86 2.73
(Dollars per Pound) 2.84 2.84 4.07 4.11 2.76 2.78 2.64 2.65
2.85 4.15 2.79 2.67
U.S. AGGREGATE MEASURES
102 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Land Use Million Acres 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Planted Planted, Hay and Idled
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Planted and Hay Planted, Hay, Idled, and CRP
Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports, Fiscal Year Billion Dollars 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 103
Consumer Price Index for Food Index, 1982-84 = 100 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Consumer Expenditures for Food Billion Dollars 900
800
700
600
500
400
300 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
104 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Government Outlays, Fiscal Year Billion Dollars 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Def/AMTA Payments
2002 LDP's
CRP
2004
2006
2008
2010
Other
U.S. Cash Receipts Billion Dollars 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000 Crops
2002 Livestock
2004
2006
2008
2010
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 105
U.S. Farm Income Billion Dollars 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998 Net Cash
2000
2002
Net Farm
2004
2006
2008
2010
2008
2010
Real NFI (1997$)
Crop Insurance Outlays, Fiscal Year Billion Dollars 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Total Obligations
2002
2004
Net Outlays
2006
106 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports Million Metric Tons 250
200
150
100
50
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
Animals and Animal Products
1998/99
2000/01
Grains and Feeds
2002/03
2004/05
Oilseeds and Products
2006/07 Cotton
2008/09
2010/11
Other Products
Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports Billion Dollars 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
Animals and Animal Products
1998/99
2000/01
Grains and Feeds
2002/03
2004/05
Oilseeds and Products
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Cotton
Other Products
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 107
nimalAndFeedExp Value of U.S.
Animal and Grain Exports
Billion Dollars 25
20
15
10
5
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Animal and Animal Products
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Grains and Feeds
SMTExp
Feed Equivalents of U.S. Meat Exports
Million Metric Tons 12
10
8
6
4
2
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95 Wheat
1996/97 Corn
1998/99
2000/01
Other Feed Grains
2002/03
2004/05
Soybean Meal
2006/07 Other Meals
2008/09
2010/11
108 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Land Use Under the provisions of the FAIR Act, CRP enrollment is capped at 36.4 million acres. Through 2000, CRP enrollment stood at 31.4 million acres. Original CRP contracts began to expire in 1997/98, and total CRP area fell to 30.5 million acres by 1998/99, as some contracts were not immediately extended. It is assumed that contract holders may re-bid their land and that new land may also be bid into the CRP. While not all bids will be accepted, and some current contracts will not be extended, the net effect is an increase in CRP area starting in 2000. Area in the program reaches 36 million acres by 2004/05. FAPRI assumes that the secretary of agriculture will seek to maintain the CRP area at or very near the maximum through the use of continuous sign-ups of riparian area and filter strips, state incentive programs, and traditional announced sign-ups. Given the price paths of program crops, the planting flexibility provisions of the FAIR Act allow corn and soybean area to expand. Longer term, acreage of cotton, rice, and other feed grains decline. This shifting is a continuation of the changes occurring while normal flex acres existed. The 0-85 and 50-85 programs, formerly 0-92 and 50-92, were eliminated by the FAIR Act. A portion of the land idled under such programs will remain unplanted and will receive payments for production flexibility contracts. Historically, these programs have idled more than 10 million acres of program crop area each year. Higher crop prices resulting from droughts or other demand shocks could bring the traditionally idled land back into production, but such price shocks are not assumed in the baseline projections. Total area planted to 15 principal crops increased 3.6 million acres in 2000/01 due to favorable planting weather and expectations of higher returns. For the 2001 crop year, planted area of the 15 crops is projected to total 260.6 million acres. The higher commodity prices in the last years of the baseline pull land back into production. By 2010/ 11, planted area reaches 264.6 million acres.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 109
U.S. Planted and Idl dled Area 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
293.1 261.7 31.4
294.1 260.6 33.5
296.4 261.9 34.5
296.5 261.0 35.5
(Million Acres) 297.6 298.3 298.8 261.6 262.1 262.6 36.0 36.2 36.2
299.4 263.2 36.2
300.0 263.8 36.2
300.4 264.2 36.2
300.8 264.6 36.2
Wheat Total Area Planted CRP
71.6 62.5 9.0
70.6 61.0 9.6
72.4 62.4 9.9
72.3 62.1 10.2
73.0 62.7 10.3
73.4 63.0 10.4
73.7 63.3 10.4
74.0 63.6 10.4
74.4 64.0 10.4
74.6 64.2 10.4
74.8 64.4 10.4
Corn Total Area Planted CRP
83.8 79.5 4.3
82.6 78.0 4.6
83.4 78.7 4.7
83.8 78.9 4.9
84.1 79.2 4.9
84.5 79.6 5.0
84.9 80.0 5.0
85.4 80.5 5.0
85.8 80.8 5.0
85.7 80.8 5.0
85.8 80.9 5.0
Sorghum Total Area Planted CRP
10.2 9.2 1.0
10.5 9.4 1.1
10.5 9.4 1.1
10.4 9.3 1.2
10.4 9.2 1.2
10.4 9.2 1.2
10.4 9.2 1.2
10.3 9.2 1.2
10.3 9.1 1.2
10.2 9.1 1.2
10.2 9.0 1.2
Barley Total Area Planted CRP
6.6 5.8 0.8
6.7 5.9 0.8
6.7 5.8 0.8
6.7 5.8 0.9
6.7 5.8 0.9
6.6 5.7 0.9
6.6 5.7 0.9
6.6 5.7 0.9
6.6 5.7 0.9
6.6 5.7 0.9
6.5 5.7 0.9
Oats Total Area Planted CRP
4.7 4.5 0.3
4.8 4.5 0.3
4.5 4.2 0.3
4.4 4.1 0.3
4.4 4.1 0.3
4.3 4.0 0.3
4.3 4.0 0.3
4.3 4.0 0.3
4.2 3.9 0.3
4.2 3.9 0.3
4.1 3.8 0.3
Soybean Total Area Planted CRP
78.0 74.5 3.5
79.7 75.9 3.8
79.5 75.6 3.9
79.2 75.2 4.0
79.1 75.0 4.1
79.0 74.9 4.1
78.9 74.8 4.1
78.8 74.7 4.1
78.7 74.6 4.1
79.0 74.9 4.1
79.3 75.2 4.1
Cotton Total Area Planted CRP
16.4 15.4 1.0
16.7 15.6 1.1
16.2 15.2 1.1
16.2 15.1 1.1
16.2 15.0 1.1
16.2 15.1 1.1
16.2 15.1 1.1
16.2 15.1 1.1
16.2 15.1 1.1
16.2 15.1 1.1
16.2 15.0 1.1
Rice Total Area Planted CRP
3.1 3.1 0.0
3.3 3.3 0.0
3.4 3.4 0.0
3.4 3.4 0.0
3.4 3.4 0.0
3.4 3.4 0.0
3.4 3.4 0.0
3.4 3.4 0.0
3.4 3.4 0.0
3.4 3.3 0.0
3.3 3.3 0.0
Peanuts Planted
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
5 Other Crops*
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.3
11.5
12.2
12.6
13.0
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.2
15-Crop Total Area Planted CRP
Other CRP Area
05/06
Hay Harvested
59.9
60.5
60.7
60.6
60.6
60.7
60.8
61.0
61.2
61.3
61.3
15 Crops + Hay Planted CRP
353.0 321.5 31.4
354.6 321.2 33.5
357.0 322.5 34.5
357.1 321.6 35.5
358.2 322.2 36.0
359.0 322.8 36.2
359.7 323.5 36.2
360.4 324.2 36.2
361.1 324.9 36.2
361.6 325.4 36.2
362.1 325.9 36.2
beans, and flaxseed. Harvested area for tobacco and rye. * Planted area of sunflowers, edible be
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 111
U.S. Wheat Producttion 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
9.05 0.47 1.99 0.20 0.92 0.36 0.01 2.79 0.35 1.94
9.61 0.51 2.11 0.22 1.01 0.39 0.01 2.96 0.39 2.01
9.91 0.52 2.18 0.23 1.05 0.40 0.01 3.04 0.40 2.07
10.19 0.54 2.24 0.23 1.08 0.41 0.01 3.13 0.41 2.13
(Million Acres) 10.34 10.39 10.39 0.54 0.55 0.55 2.27 2.28 2.28 0.24 0.24 0.24 1.10 1.11 1.11 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.01 0.01 0.01 3.17 3.19 3.19 0.42 0.42 0.42 2.16 2.18 2.18
10.39 0.55 2.28 0.24 1.11 0.42 0.01 3.19 0.42 2.18
10.39 0.55 2.28 0.24 1.11 0.42 0.01 3.19 0.42 2.18
10.39 0.55 2.28 0.24 1.11 0.42 0.01 3.19 0.42 2.18
10.39 0.55 2.28 0.24 1.11 0.42 0.01 3.19 0.42 2.18
Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
62.53 3.69 14.10 1.63 5.61 2.70 0.69 18.72 2.82 12.57
60.98 3.34 14.00 1.57 5.69 2.73 0.60 18.90 2.69 11.47
62.45 3.41 13.97 1.56 5.70 2.71 0.63 19.10 2.78 12.58
62.08 3.37 13.87 1.55 5.68 2.71 0.62 19.06 2.76 12.47
62.67 3.39 14.00 1.57 5.72 2.73 0.63 19.22 2.80 12.62
63.00 3.40 14.08 1.58 5.75 2.75 0.63 19.31 2.81 12.70
63.27 3.40 14.14 1.58 5.77 2.76 0.63 19.39 2.82 12.76
63.60 3.41 14.21 1.60 5.80 2.78 0.63 19.49 2.83 12.85
64.02 3.43 14.32 1.61 5.82 2.80 0.64 19.60 2.85 12.95
64.25 3.43 14.39 1.61 5.84 2.81 0.64 19.67 2.87 13.00
64.44 3.42 14.43 1.61 5.86 2.81 0.64 19.73 2.88 13.07
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
53.03 3.51 13.45 1.52 5.30 2.61 0.64 17.39 2.04 6.58
53.59 3.18 13.11 1.46 5.39 2.65 0.56 17.77 2.08 7.38
54.93 3.25 13.19 1.45 5.40 2.64 0.59 17.96 2.16 8.29
54.62 3.21 13.10 1.44 5.38 2.63 0.58 17.93 2.14 8.21
55.14 3.23 13.21 1.46 5.42 2.66 0.59 18.07 2.18 8.31
55.42 3.24 13.28 1.47 5.44 2.68 0.59 18.17 2.19 8.37
55.65 3.25 13.33 1.47 5.46 2.69 0.59 18.25 2.20 8.41
55.94 3.26 13.40 1.48 5.49 2.70 0.59 18.34 2.21 8.47
56.30 3.27 13.49 1.49 5.51 2.72 0.60 18.45 2.23 8.54
56.50 3.27 13.55 1.49 5.53 2.73 0.60 18.51 2.25 8.57
56.66 3.26 13.58 1.49 5.54 2.73 0.60 18.57 2.26 8.62
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
41.9 62.1 35.6 54.0 70.9 54.0 57.7 32.6 54.2 32.4
41.1 58.0 39.0 50.4 69.6 45.0 57.6 31.4 50.3 33.1
41.3 58.7 39.5 51.0 70.2 45.5 58.4 31.5 51.1 33.2
41.7 59.4 40.0 51.6 70.7 46.0 59.3 31.7 51.9 33.4
42.8 61.6 41.4 53.3 72.4 47.5 61.7 32.2 54.2 33.8
43.1 62.2 41.9 53.8 72.9 48.0 62.5 32.3 54.9 34.0
43.5 62.9 42.4 54.4 73.4 48.5 63.3 32.4 55.7 34.1
43.8 63.6 42.9 54.9 73.9 49.0 64.0 32.6 56.4 34.3
44.2 64.3 43.4 55.5 74.5 49.5 64.8 32.7 57.1 34.4
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
2,223 218 479 82 376 141 37 568 110 213
2,203 185 511 73 375 119 32 558 104 245
2,271 191 520 74 379 120 34 567 110 275
2,279 191 523 74 381 121 34 568 111 274
(Million Bushels) 2,320 2,351 2,381 194 197 200 535 544 553 76 77 78 386 391 395 124 126 128 35 36 37 576 581 587 115 117 119 279 282 284
2,413 203 562 80 400 130 37 592 122 288
2,448 206 572 81 405 132 38 598 124 291
2,476 208 582 82 409 134 38 603 127 294
2,503 209 590 83 413 135 39 608 129 297
(Bushels per Acre) 42.1 42.4 60.1 60.9 40.5 41.0 52.1 52.7 71.3 71.8 46.5 47.0 60.1 60.9 31.9 32.0 52.6 53.4 33.5 33.7
112 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Corn Productio on 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
4.28 1.87 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.83 0.05 0.51 0.35 0.15
4.58 2.02 0.50 0.04 0.01 0.89 0.05 0.54 0.38 0.15
4.72 2.08 0.51 0.04 0.01 0.92 0.05 0.55 0.40 0.16
4.86 2.14 0.53 0.04 0.01 0.95 0.05 0.57 0.41 0.16
Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
79.55 35.60 13.30 0.97 1.07 12.80 3.52 5.54 4.21 2.55
77.97 35.22 12.85 0.91 1.09 12.61 3.49 5.15 4.17 2.49
78.66 35.52 12.90 0.93 1.10 12.70 3.59 5.16 4.24 2.51
78.92 35.70 12.91 0.95 1.09 12.76 3.59 5.15 4.25 2.50
79.21 35.83 12.91 0.96 1.10 12.86 3.59 5.18 4.25 2.52
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
72.73 34.67 12.43 0.93 0.48 11.32 2.23 4.86 3.57 2.24
71.38 34.28 12.27 0.86 0.51 11.14 2.11 4.52 3.57 2.11
72.07 34.60 12.32 0.88 0.51 11.25 2.19 4.54 3.65 2.13
72.38 34.79 12.33 0.90 0.51 11.33 2.20 4.53 3.66 2.12
72.71 34.94 12.33 0.91 0.52 11.44 2.19 4.57 3.67 2.13
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
137.1 147.3 127.1 112.0 173.2 138.2 128.6 112.4 115.8 127.1
136.2 144.2 139.5 116.2 169.5 136.2 113.5 105.7 103.6 129.7
138.1 146.5 140.5 118.1 170.7 138.1 114.6 107.9 105.1 131.6
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
9,968 5,106 1,580 104 82 1,564 287 546 414 285
9,722 4,944 1,712 100 86 1,518 240 478 370 273
9,950 5,069 1,731 104 88 1,554 251 490 383 280
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17
4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17
4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17
4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17
4.96 2.18 0.54 0.04 0.01 0.97 0.05 0.58 0.42 0.17
79.55 35.96 12.92 0.98 1.11 12.97 3.58 5.23 4.26 2.54
79.98 36.12 12.95 1.00 1.13 13.09 3.58 5.28 4.27 2.56
80.46 36.31 12.98 1.02 1.14 13.22 3.58 5.34 4.29 2.59
80.79 36.45 12.98 1.03 1.16 13.33 3.57 5.39 4.29 2.61
80.77 36.37 12.96 1.04 1.17 13.39 3.54 5.42 4.26 2.62
80.87 36.36 12.96 1.06 1.18 13.44 3.52 5.47 4.26 2.63
73.08 35.08 12.34 0.93 0.53 11.56 2.19 4.62 3.69 2.15
73.54 35.25 12.37 0.94 0.54 11.69 2.18 4.68 3.71 2.17
74.04 35.46 12.39 0.96 0.55 11.83 2.18 4.75 3.73 2.19
74.41 35.61 12.39 0.98 0.56 11.95 2.18 4.80 3.74 2.21
74.44 35.56 12.37 0.99 0.57 12.02 2.15 4.83 3.73 2.21
74.60 35.57 12.37 1.00 0.58 12.10 2.14 4.88 3.73 2.23
140.0 148.9 141.5 120.0 172.0 140.0 115.7 110.2 106.6 133.5
(Bushels per Acre) 141.9 143.8 145.7 151.2 153.6 155.8 142.5 143.5 144.4 121.8 123.6 125.3 173.1 174.2 175.3 141.8 143.7 145.5 116.8 117.9 119.0 112.4 114.6 116.7 108.0 109.5 110.9 135.4 137.3 139.1
147.5 158.1 145.3 127.0 176.4 147.2 120.1 118.8 112.2 141.0
149.4 160.4 146.3 128.7 177.4 149.0 121.1 120.9 113.6 142.8
151.2 162.7 147.2 130.4 178.4 150.8 122.2 123.0 115.0 144.6
153.1 165.1 148.1 132.0 179.4 152.6 123.3 125.0 116.4 146.4
10,134 5,180 1,745 108 88 1,586 254 500 390 283
(Million Bushels) 10,319 10,511 10,713 5,283 5,387 5,494 1,757 1,771 1,786 111 114 118 90 92 95 1,623 1,660 1,700 256 258 260 514 530 546 397 404 411 289 295 302
10,922 5,606 1,801 122 97 1,741 262 564 419 309
11,113 5,712 1,813 126 100 1,780 264 580 425 315
11,259 5,787 1,821 129 102 1,813 263 594 429 320
11,420 5,871 1,832 132 104 1,846 264 611 434 326
(Million Acres) 4.93 4.96 2.17 2.18 0.53 0.54 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.96 0.97 0.05 0.05 0.58 0.58 0.42 0.42 0.16 0.17
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 113
U.S. Sorghum Prod duction 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
1.03 0.07 0.41 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.41
1.09 0.08 0.43 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.43
1.12 0.08 0.45 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.44
1.16 0.08 0.46 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.45
Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
9.20 0.37 4.38 0.46 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.18 0.14 3.62
9.40 0.37 4.36 0.43 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.86
9.40 0.37 4.32 0.43 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.91
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
7.72 0.36 3.91 0.44 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.12 0.09 2.78
8.29 0.36 3.97 0.41 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.10 3.32
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
60.9 92.7 58.9 78.2 77.6 0.0 82.8 49.0 58.4 57.2
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
470 33 230 34 1 0 1 6 5 159
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Million Acres) 1.17 1.18 0.08 0.08 0.47 0.47 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.46 0.46
1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46
1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46
1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46
1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46
1.18 0.08 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.46
9.28 0.37 4.24 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.88
9.23 0.37 4.19 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.88
9.19 0.37 4.15 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.90
9.19 0.37 4.11 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.92
9.17 0.37 4.07 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.15 3.94
9.11 0.37 4.02 0.42 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.93
9.05 0.36 3.97 0.41 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.94
9.02 0.36 3.93 0.41 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.14 3.95
8.30 0.36 3.93 0.41 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.10 3.37
8.19 0.35 3.86 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.10 3.33
8.14 0.35 3.81 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.10 3.34
8.11 0.35 3.77 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.10 3.35
8.11 0.35 3.74 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.10 3.37
8.09 0.35 3.70 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.11 3.39
8.04 0.35 3.66 0.40 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.11 3.38
7.99 0.35 3.61 0.39 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.11 3.38
7.96 0.34 3.57 0.39 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.11 3.40
68.0 87.7 75.3 77.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.1 64.7 57.2
68.3 88.3 76.0 77.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.2 65.7 57.4
68.8 88.8 76.6 78.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.3 66.6 57.6
(Bushels per Acre) 69.2 69.6 89.4 89.9 77.3 77.9 79.5 80.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.4 64.5 67.6 68.5 57.8 58.0
70.0 90.5 78.5 81.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.5 69.4 58.3
70.4 91.0 79.1 81.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.6 70.4 58.5
70.8 91.5 79.7 82.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.7 71.3 58.7
71.1 92.0 80.3 83.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.7 72.2 58.9
71.5 92.5 80.8 83.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.8 73.1 59.1
564 31 299 32 0 0 0 6 6 190
567 31 298 32 0 0 0 6 7 193
563 31 295 32 0 0 0 6 7 192
(Million Bushels) 563 565 31 32 294 294 32 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 7 7 193 194
568 32 294 32 0 0 0 6 7 196
569 32 293 33 0 0 0 6 7 198
569 32 291 33 0 0 0 7 8 199
568 32 290 33 0 0 0 7 8 199
569 32 289 33 0 0 0 7 8 201
114 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Barley Producttion 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
0.77 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.20 0.06 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.01
0.82 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.21 0.06 0.00 0.47 0.01 0.01
0.85 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.22 0.07 0.00 0.49 0.01 0.01
0.87 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.50 0.01 0.01
Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
5.84 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.36 0.20 3.37 0.12 0.00
5.85 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.67 0.36 0.19 3.36 0.13 0.00
5.85 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.68 0.36 0.19 3.35 0.13 0.00
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
5.20 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.31 0.19 2.92 0.09 0.00
5.34 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.58 0.33 0.17 3.03 0.10 0.00
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
61.1 0.0 105.8 0.0 72.8 63.8 74.8 51.0 86.0 0.0
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
318 0 12 0 114 20 14 149 8 0
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Million Acres) 0.88 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.51 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01
0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01
0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01
0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01
0.89 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.23 0.07 0.00 0.51 0.01 0.01
5.84 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.67 0.36 0.19 3.35 0.13 0.00
5.79 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.66 0.35 0.18 3.32 0.13 0.00
5.75 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.34 0.18 3.31 0.13 0.00
5.73 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.33 0.18 3.30 0.12 0.00
5.71 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.33 0.18 3.28 0.12 0.00
5.68 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.32 0.18 3.27 0.12 0.00
5.67 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.65 0.31 0.17 3.26 0.12 0.00
5.66 0.01 0.13 0.00 1.66 0.30 0.17 3.25 0.12 0.00
5.33 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.58 0.33 0.17 3.03 0.10 0.00
5.33 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.58 0.32 0.17 3.03 0.10 0.00
5.28 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.57 0.32 0.17 3.00 0.10 0.00
5.25 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.31 0.16 2.99 0.10 0.00
5.23 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.55 0.30 0.16 2.98 0.10 0.00
5.21 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.30 0.16 2.97 0.10 0.00
5.19 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.29 0.16 2.95 0.10 0.00
5.18 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.28 0.16 2.95 0.10 0.00
5.16 0.00 0.12 0.00 1.56 0.27 0.16 2.94 0.10 0.00
62.2 0.0 103.0 0.0 75.8 57.5 75.2 52.8 79.6 0.0
62.8 0.0 104.7 0.0 76.4 57.8 76.1 53.2 80.9 0.0
63.4 0.0 106.3 0.0 77.0 58.1 76.9 53.7 82.2 0.0
(Bushels per Acre) 64.0 64.5 65.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 108.0 109.6 111.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.7 78.3 78.9 58.4 58.7 59.0 77.7 78.6 79.4 54.2 54.7 55.1 83.4 84.7 85.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
65.6 0.0 112.7 0.0 79.5 59.3 80.2 55.6 87.1 0.0
66.2 0.0 114.2 0.0 80.1 59.6 80.9 56.0 88.3 0.0
66.8 0.0 115.7 0.0 80.6 59.9 81.7 56.5 89.4 0.0
67.3 0.0 117.1 0.0 81.2 60.2 82.4 56.9 90.6 0.0
332 0 12 0 119 19 13 160 8 0
335 0 13 0 121 19 13 161 8 0
338 0 13 0 121 19 13 163 8 0
342 0 14 0 124 18 13 165 8 0
344 0 14 0 125 17 13 166 9 0
346 0 14 0 126 17 13 166 9 0
348 0 14 0 127 17 13 167 9 0
(Million Bushels) 338 339 0 0 13 13 0 0 122 122 18 18 13 13 163 163 8 8 0 0
340 0 13 0 123 18 13 164 8 0
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 115
U.S. Oat Production n 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
0.26 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.12 0.01 0.01
0.28 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.13 0.01 0.01
0.29 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.13 0.01 0.01
0.29 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01
Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
4.48 0.55 0.32 0.00 0.44 0.90 0.29 1.15 0.19 0.66
4.50 0.54 0.27 0.00 0.46 0.90 0.30 1.14 0.20 0.69
4.23 0.48 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.84 0.27 1.06 0.19 0.68
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
2.32 0.38 0.13 0.00 0.09 0.67 0.24 0.61 0.10 0.12
2.36 0.39 0.13 0.00 0.09 0.68 0.24 0.61 0.10 0.13
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
64.2 69.6 48.4 0.0 80.3 69.4 60.7 61.0 67.2 43.1
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
149 26 6 0 7 46 14 37 7 5
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Million Acres) 0.30 0.30 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01
0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01
0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01
0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01
0.30 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.01
4.13 0.47 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.80 0.26 1.03 0.19 0.69
4.10 0.47 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.78 0.26 1.01 0.18 0.69
4.05 0.47 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.76 0.26 0.99 0.18 0.69
4.00 0.46 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.74 0.26 0.97 0.18 0.69
3.95 0.45 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.72 0.25 0.96 0.18 0.69
3.91 0.44 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.70 0.25 0.95 0.18 0.68
3.87 0.43 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.68 0.25 0.95 0.17 0.68
3.80 0.41 0.24 0.00 0.46 0.65 0.25 0.94 0.17 0.68
2.15 0.35 0.12 0.00 0.09 0.62 0.21 0.54 0.10 0.12
2.06 0.35 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.58 0.21 0.51 0.10 0.12
2.04 0.35 0.12 0.00 0.08 0.57 0.21 0.49 0.09 0.12
1.99 0.34 0.12 0.00 0.08 0.55 0.20 0.47 0.09 0.12
1.95 0.34 0.12 0.00 0.08 0.53 0.20 0.46 0.09 0.12
1.91 0.34 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.51 0.20 0.45 0.09 0.12
1.88 0.33 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.49 0.20 0.44 0.09 0.12
1.84 0.32 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.47 0.20 0.44 0.09 0.12
1.79 0.31 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.45 0.19 0.43 0.09 0.12
60.4 64.8 59.1 0.0 83.1 61.4 60.6 56.9 60.6 44.3
60.7 64.9 59.7 0.0 83.6 61.5 60.6 57.4 60.9 44.5
61.0 65.0 60.4 0.0 84.2 61.6 60.7 57.9 61.1 44.7
(Bushels per Acre) 61.3 61.5 65.2 65.3 61.0 61.6 0.0 0.0 84.8 85.3 61.8 61.9 60.7 60.8 58.3 58.8 61.4 61.6 44.9 45.1
61.8 65.4 62.3 0.0 85.8 62.0 60.8 59.2 61.8 45.2
62.0 65.5 62.9 0.0 86.3 62.1 60.9 59.7 62.1 45.4
62.2 65.5 63.5 0.0 86.9 62.2 61.0 60.1 62.3 45.6
62.5 65.6 64.1 0.0 87.4 62.3 61.0 60.6 62.5 45.8
62.7 65.7 64.7 0.0 87.8 62.4 61.1 61.0 62.7 45.9
143 25 8 0 7 42 14 35 6 6
131 23 7 0 7 38 13 31 6 6
126 23 7 0 7 36 13 30 6 6
(Million Bushels) 125 122 23 23 7 7 0 0 7 7 35 34 13 12 29 28 6 6 6 6
120 22 7 0 7 33 12 27 6 6
118 22 7 0 7 32 12 27 6 6
117 22 7 0 7 31 12 27 6 6
115 21 7 0 7 30 12 27 6 6
112 21 7 0 7 28 12 26 6 6
116 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Hay Production n 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
59.85 8.42 7.25 2.40 6.22 5.65 4.89 9.64 8.46 6.93
60.54 8.44 7.29 2.44 6.21 5.84 4.85 9.89 8.57 7.03
60.68 8.44 7.28 2.45 6.19 5.87 4.82 9.93 8.62 7.07
60.65 8.43 7.26 2.45 6.18 5.85 4.81 9.91 8.66 7.10
(Million Acres) 60.61 60.68 60.80 8.42 8.44 8.47 7.25 7.25 7.24 2.46 2.47 2.48 6.17 6.17 6.17 5.82 5.80 5.79 4.80 4.81 4.81 9.87 9.86 9.85 8.68 8.73 8.79 7.12 7.16 7.20
60.99 8.51 7.25 2.49 6.17 5.78 4.83 9.85 8.87 7.25
61.18 8.54 7.25 2.50 6.17 5.77 4.84 9.86 8.95 7.31
61.28 8.57 7.24 2.51 6.17 5.75 4.85 9.85 9.00 7.34
61.29 8.57 7.24 2.51 6.16 5.72 4.84 9.83 9.03 7.36
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
2.54 2.67 2.30 2.01 4.20 3.04 2.24 1.89 2.40 2.22
2.59 2.69 2.59 2.13 4.32 2.98 2.26 1.92 2.29 2.30
2.60 2.70 2.61 2.15 4.35 2.98 2.27 1.93 2.31 2.30
2.61 2.71 2.63 2.16 4.39 2.98 2.27 1.94 2.32 2.30
2.65 2.73 2.70 2.18 4.49 2.98 2.29 1.97 2.36 2.30
2.66 2.74 2.72 2.19 4.52 2.98 2.29 1.98 2.38 2.30
2.67 2.75 2.74 2.20 4.56 2.98 2.30 1.99 2.39 2.31
2.68 2.76 2.76 2.21 4.59 2.98 2.30 1.99 2.40 2.31
2.69 2.77 2.78 2.22 4.62 2.98 2.31 2.00 2.41 2.31
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
152.2 22.5 16.7 4.8 26.1 17.2 11.0 18.2 20.3 15.4
156.7 22.7 18.9 5.2 26.8 17.4 11.0 19.0 19.6 16.1
157.7 22.8 19.0 5.2 27.0 17.5 10.9 19.2 19.9 16.3
158.4 22.8 19.1 5.3 27.1 17.4 10.9 19.2 20.1 16.3
160.8 23.2 19.5 5.4 27.7 17.3 11.0 19.4 20.8 16.6
162.0 23.3 19.7 5.5 27.9 17.2 11.1 19.5 21.1 16.7
163.1 23.5 19.8 5.5 28.1 17.2 11.1 19.6 21.4 16.8
164.0 23.6 20.0 5.5 28.3 17.1 11.2 19.6 21.6 16.9
164.6 23.7 20.1 5.6 28.5 17.1 11.2 19.7 21.8 17.0
(Tons per Acre) 2.62 2.63 2.72 2.73 2.65 2.68 2.17 2.17 4.42 4.46 2.98 2.98 2.28 2.29 1.95 1.96 2.34 2.35 2.30 2.30 (Million Tons) 159.0 159.9 22.9 23.0 19.2 19.4 5.3 5.4 27.3 27.5 17.4 17.3 11.0 11.0 19.2 19.3 20.3 20.5 16.4 16.5
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 117
U.S. Soybean Produ uction 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
3.52 1.84 0.17 0.45 0.00 0.49 0.04 0.25 0.24 0.04
3.79 1.98 0.18 0.48 0.00 0.52 0.04 0.26 0.27 0.05
3.90 2.04 0.19 0.50 0.00 0.54 0.04 0.27 0.28 0.05
4.02 2.10 0.20 0.51 0.00 0.55 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05
Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
74.50 36.45 7.60 5.98 0.00 10.90 1.39 6.30 5.13 0.75
75.94 37.04 7.95 5.89 0.00 11.17 1.46 6.61 4.97 0.86
75.56 36.71 7.96 5.87 0.00 11.13 1.40 6.63 5.01 0.85
75.18 36.44 7.96 5.81 0.00 11.10 1.39 6.67 4.95 0.84
75.03 36.30 7.99 5.80 0.00 11.07 1.39 6.73 4.93 0.83
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
72.72 36.20 7.08 5.65 0.00 10.68 1.37 6.22 4.96 0.57
74.60 36.77 7.81 5.68 0.00 11.00 1.32 6.51 4.73 0.77
74.23 36.45 7.82 5.66 0.00 10.96 1.27 6.53 4.77 0.76
73.85 36.18 7.83 5.60 0.00 10.93 1.26 6.58 4.72 0.75
73.71 36.04 7.85 5.59 0.00 10.90 1.26 6.63 4.70 0.75
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
38.1 42.5 31.6 24.9 0.0 39.9 41.9 34.4 31.6 20.5
39.5 43.1 38.5 28.3 0.0 41.9 36.5 34.6 30.4 26.3
40.0 43.7 39.2 28.8 0.0 42.5 37.0 35.1 30.8 26.6
40.5 44.2 39.8 29.3 0.0 43.1 37.5 35.6 31.1 26.9
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
2,770 1,540 224 141 0 426 57 214 157 12
2,946 1,586 301 161 0 461 48 226 144 20
2,970 1,591 306 163 0 466 47 229 147 20
2,993 1,598 311 164 0 471 47 234 147 20
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05
4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05
4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05
4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05
4.10 2.14 0.20 0.52 0.00 0.56 0.04 0.28 0.29 0.05
74.94 36.17 8.03 5.78 0.00 11.05 1.39 6.79 4.91 0.83
74.83 36.04 8.06 5.77 0.00 11.02 1.38 6.86 4.88 0.82
74.65 35.87 8.09 5.75 0.00 10.97 1.38 6.92 4.85 0.82
74.56 35.73 8.13 5.74 0.00 10.94 1.38 6.98 4.84 0.81
74.87 35.84 8.17 5.74 0.00 10.96 1.41 7.04 4.89 0.81
75.16 35.90 8.25 5.77 0.00 10.99 1.42 7.12 4.91 0.81
73.62 35.92 7.89 5.57 0.00 10.88 1.26 6.69 4.67 0.74
73.51 35.78 7.93 5.56 0.00 10.85 1.25 6.76 4.64 0.74
73.33 35.61 7.96 5.54 0.00 10.80 1.25 6.82 4.61 0.74
73.24 35.48 7.99 5.53 0.00 10.77 1.25 6.88 4.61 0.73
73.55 35.59 8.03 5.53 0.00 10.79 1.28 6.94 4.65 0.73
73.83 35.64 8.10 5.56 0.00 10.83 1.29 7.02 4.67 0.73
41.9 45.5 41.5 30.7 0.0 44.7 38.9 37.0 32.2 27.9
42.4 45.9 42.1 31.2 0.0 45.3 39.4 37.5 32.6 28.2
42.8 46.3 42.6 31.6 0.0 45.8 39.9 37.9 32.9 28.6
43.2 46.6 43.1 32.1 0.0 46.4 40.3 38.4 33.2 28.9
43.6 46.9 43.7 32.5 0.0 46.9 40.8 38.8 33.5 29.2
(Million Bushels) 3,022 3,052 3,081 1,608 1,618 1,627 317 323 329 166 168 171 0 0 0 476 481 485 48 48 49 239 245 250 148 149 150 20 21 21
3,107 1,634 335 173 0 489 49 255 150 21
3,135 1,643 340 175 0 494 50 261 152 21
3,176 1,659 347 177 0 500 52 266 155 21
3,217 1,672 354 181 0 507 53 272 157 21
(Million Acres) 4.07 4.10 2.13 2.14 0.20 0.20 0.52 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.56 0.56 0.04 0.04 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.05 0.05
(Bushels per Acre) 41.0 41.5 44.6 45.0 40.3 40.9 29.8 30.3 0.0 0.0 43.6 44.2 38.0 38.5 36.1 36.5 31.5 31.9 27.3 27.6
118 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Rice Productio on 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
3.07 0.18 0.00 2.13 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
3.29 0.18 0.00 2.31 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
3.42 0.19 0.00 2.41 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
3.04 0.17 0.00 2.11 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21
3.26 0.18 0.00 2.28 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
6,278 5,700 0 5,848 7,953 0 0 0 0 6,702
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
191.1 9.9 0.0 123.3 43.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Million Acres) 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3.41 0.19 0.00 2.40 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
3.41 0.18 0.00 2.41 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
3.40 0.18 0.00 2.41 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
3.39 0.18 0.00 2.41 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
3.38 0.18 0.00 2.40 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23
3.36 0.18 0.00 2.40 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23
3.35 0.17 0.00 2.39 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
3.32 0.17 0.00 2.38 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
3.38 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25
3.37 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
3.37 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
3.37 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24
3.35 0.18 0.00 2.38 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23
3.34 0.17 0.00 2.37 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23
3.33 0.17 0.00 2.37 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23
3.31 0.17 0.00 2.36 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
3.28 0.17 0.00 2.35 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22
6,044 5,374 0 5,628 7,975 0 0 0 0 5,944
6,049 5,395 0 5,643 8,007 0 0 0 0 5,932
6,095 5,419 0 5,694 8,047 0 0 0 0 5,941
(Pounds per Acre) 6,136 6,178 6,221 5,443 5,466 5,489 0 0 0 5,741 5,787 5,836 8,093 8,129 8,173 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,948 5,956 5,965
6,264 5,512 0 5,884 8,216 0 0 0 0 5,975
6,306 5,534 0 5,931 8,260 0 0 0 0 5,984
6,348 5,556 0 5,978 8,298 0 0 0 0 5,994
6,394 5,578 0 6,029 8,340 0 0 0 0 6,004
196.9 9.5 0.0 128.4 45.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0
204.4 9.9 0.0 134.3 45.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7
205.4 9.8 0.0 135.3 45.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.4
(Million Hundredweight) 206.6 208.0 208.6 9.8 9.8 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 136.6 137.8 138.7 45.9 46.3 46.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 14.2 14.0
209.2 9.6 0.0 139.6 46.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8
209.7 9.5 0.0 140.4 46.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6
210.1 9.4 0.0 141.1 46.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3
210.0 9.2 0.0 141.5 46.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 119
U.S. Upland Cotton n Production 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
CRP Idled Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
1.02 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.93
1.06 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.96
1.09 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.99
1.12 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.02
Planted Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
15.37 0.40 0.04 2.97 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.13 6.77
15.60 0.41 0.04 3.11 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.21 6.86
15.15 0.39 0.04 3.01 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.13 6.66
15.06 0.39 0.04 3.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.13 6.57
15.05 0.39 0.04 3.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.14 6.55
Harvested Area Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
12.93 0.39 0.04 2.93 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.87 4.66
14.00 0.40 0.04 3.06 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.98 5.55
13.58 0.37 0.04 2.97 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.90 5.38
13.49 0.37 0.04 2.95 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.90 5.30
13.49 0.37 0.04 2.95 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.91 5.29
Yield Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
625 668 298 671 1,356 0 0 0 616 437
640 682 420 757 1,249 0 0 0 633 473
644 687 427 762 1,255 0 0 0 640 477
Production Corn Belt Central Plains Delta States Far West Lake States Northeast Northern Plains Southeast Southern Plains
16.82 0.54 0.02 4.09 2.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.97 4.24
18.67 0.56 0.03 4.83 2.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 5.48
18.23 0.54 0.03 4.70 2.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.20 5.34
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04
1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04
1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04
1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04
1.14 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 1.04
15.06 0.39 0.04 3.00 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.15 6.54
15.07 0.39 0.04 2.99 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.16 6.54
15.06 0.39 0.04 2.99 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.16 6.53
15.06 0.39 0.04 2.99 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 6.52
15.06 0.39 0.04 2.99 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.17 6.51
15.04 0.39 0.04 2.98 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.18 6.49
13.50 0.38 0.04 2.95 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.92 5.28
13.51 0.38 0.04 2.95 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.93 5.27
13.51 0.38 0.04 2.95 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.94 5.27
13.51 0.38 0.04 2.95 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.94 5.26
13.51 0.38 0.04 2.94 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.95 5.25
13.49 0.37 0.04 2.94 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.95 5.24
649 693 434 765 1,259 0 0 0 645 480
(Pounds per Acre) 654 658 662 698 703 708 440 447 453 769 772 775 1,263 1,266 1,270 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 651 657 662 482 485 487
665 712 459 778 1,274 0 0 0 667 490
669 717 464 781 1,278 0 0 0 672 492
673 721 470 784 1,281 0 0 0 678 494
676 725 475 787 1,285 0 0 0 683 496
18.26 0.54 0.03 4.71 2.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.25 5.30
(Million Bales) 18.37 18.50 18.62 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.03 0.03 0.03 4.72 4.74 4.76 2.45 2.48 2.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.30 5.36 5.42 5.31 5.34 5.36
18.72 0.56 0.03 4.78 2.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.47 5.37
18.83 0.56 0.03 4.79 2.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.52 5.39
18.93 0.56 0.04 4.81 2.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.57 5.41
19.01 0.57 0.04 4.82 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.62 5.41
(Million Acres) 1.14 1.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 1.04 1.04
120 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Food Prices and Expenditures The CPI for food is expected to increase by 2.5 percent in 2001. All food categories show increases in 2001, with fruit and vegetable prices increasing the most. The CPI for food is expected to increase at about 2 percent per year over the baseline. This growth rate remains below the overall CPI growth rate for the period. Fruit and vegetable prices show the greatest increases over the period, consistent with the previous decade. CPI categories increase every year for all foods, with the exception of dairy in 2002. The price adjustments associated with the end of the price support program cause the CPI for dairy products to fall from the 2001 level. Consumer expenditures for food are expected to increase by 3-3.5 percent per year over the baseline, leading to very modest increases in real food expenditures. Over 40 percent of food expenditure is associated with purchase of food away from home.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 121
Consumer Price Ind dexes for Food 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
168.0
172.1
175.0
179.2
(1982-84=100) 182.9 186.1 189.5
193.5
197.5
201.5
205.9
Food at Home Cereal and Bakery Meat Dairy Fruit and Vegetables Other Food At Home Sugar and Sweets Fats and Oils Other Prepared Items Non-alc. Beverages
167.8 188.2 154.3 160.7 205.5 155.8 154.0 147.4 172.3 137.7
171.8 192.6 157.8 163.2 212.2 158.7 156.4 149.2 176.7 139.1
174.5 195.9 160.6 161.8 217.6 161.0 158.4 150.4 179.9 140.7
178.5 198.5 165.1 167.2 222.6 164.0 162.0 152.8 183.5 142.6
182.1 202.9 168.0 170.3 227.2 166.9 163.9 155.5 187.9 144.2
185.1 207.2 168.8 172.9 232.2 170.0 166.4 157.7 192.6 145.8
188.3 211.8 170.2 175.7 237.8 172.9 168.5 159.6 196.8 147.4
192.1 217.0 173.1 178.5 243.7 175.5 170.7 161.7 200.4 149.0
196.4 222.3 177.1 181.1 250.1 178.4 173.4 164.0 204.3 150.8
200.5 227.9 179.8 183.8 256.8 181.5 176.5 166.5 208.7 152.6
205.1 233.9 183.3 186.9 264.2 185.1 180.1 169.1 213.6 154.6
Food Away From Home
169.0
173.3
176.6
181.0
184.9
188.4
192.1
196.3
200.1
203.8
207.9
2005
FOOD
2005
Total Consumer Exp xpenditures for Food 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
569.4
589.0
606.7
628.2
(Billion Dollars) 649.0 668.5 689.1
711.7
735.0
758.1
783.1
Food at Home Cereal and Bakery Meat Dairy Fruit and Vegetables Other Food At Home Sugar and Sweets Fats and Oils Other Prepared Items Non-alc. Beverages
330.3 51.0 86.3 35.8 56.5 100.7 12.4 9.3 47.2 27.3
341.6 52.7 89.2 36.9 58.3 104.4 13.0 9.8 48.6 28.3
351.7 54.5 91.8 37.1 60.4 107.8 13.3 10.1 49.7 29.8
364.6 56.1 95.5 38.7 62.4 112.0 13.9 10.3 51.1 31.5
376.4 58.2 98.5 39.7 64.3 115.7 14.2 10.6 52.4 33.1
387.1 60.2 100.2 40.8 66.3 119.5 14.7 10.9 53.6 34.6
398.8 62.4 102.5 42.0 68.6 123.3 15.1 11.1 54.9 36.1
411.8 64.7 105.6 43.2 70.9 127.3 15.5 11.4 56.3 37.7
425.8 67.1 109.2 44.4 73.4 131.6 16.0 11.7 57.8 39.3
439.6 69.7 112.0 45.7 76.1 136.1 16.5 12.0 59.4 41.0
454.7 72.3 115.4 47.1 79.0 140.9 17.1 12.4 61.0 42.7
Food Away From Home
239.1
247.4
255.0
263.6
272.6
281.3
290.4
299.9
309.2
318.6
328.4
FOOD
122 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Government Costs The emergency spending packages of the past three years, together with increased loan deficiency payments (LDPs), have pushed government outlays significantly higher. For FY 2000, net expenditures reached $32.3 billion. Outlays are projected to decline to $18.3 billion in FY 2001. Longer term, outlays decline to approximately $8 billion, with the bulk of those costs associated with FAIR Act contract payments and CRP rental payments. Feed-grain program costs rose to $11.6 billion in FY 2000, with the bulk of the increase due to the additional payments of the 1999 and 2000 spending packages. With no assumption of additional aid packages and lower LDPs, program outlays fall to $4.5 billion in FY 2001. Costs average $2.1 billion in the latter half of the baseline. Outlays for wheat set a record of $5.4 billion in FY 2000, surpassing the previous record of $3.4 billion. Direct payments under the FAIR Act and the emergency spending package accounted for $4.2 billion of the total. For FY 2001, outlays decline to $1.5 billion and average $1.1 billion in the longer term. Increased LDPs and marketing loan gains due to sagging soybean prices led to additional outlays for FY 2000. Costs for FY 2000 were $2.9 billion, with a further increase projected for FY 2001. With soybean prices remaining low, the costs of the soybean program are expected to exceed $2 billion through FY 2005. Cotton program costs grew to $4 billion in FY 2000 as low world prices contributed to higher LDPs and marketing loan gains. In addition, the reinstatement of the Step 2 program contributed $446 million to the costs of the program in 2000. Outlays are projected to decline significantly in FY 2001 as stronger world prices limit marketing loan outlays. Longer term, outlays for cotton range between $600 million and $800 million. As rice prices have weakened over the past two years, the costs of the rice program have increased. For FY 2000, costs totaled $1.9 billion, doubling the previous record of $950 million. Continued weakness in world prices is projected to lead to increased LDPs throughout the baseline. By the end of the projection period, rice outlays decline to $600 million. An increase in product purchases was the primary driver behind dairy outlays reaching $684 million in FY 2000. For FY 2001, supplemental payments included in the most recent appropriations legislation are expected to increase dairy costs to $1.1 billion. Longer term, dairy costs average $100 million, with most of those costs associated with the Export Incentive Program. Outlays associated with the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) averaged $1.5 billion in FY 1999 and 2000. As acreage enrolled in the CRP is assumed to expand to 36.2 million acres, outlays grow to $1.8 billion by FY 2005.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 123
CCC Net Expenditu ures, by Program 2000
2001
2002
2003
Feed Grains Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Wheat Soybeans Cotton Rice Sugar Dairy Export Programs Net Interest Disaster Payments Conservation Reserve Other Conservation Prog. Other Net Costs
11,646 10,203 983 399 61 5,365 2,864 4,015 1,894 465 684 88 736 1,490 1,511 263 1,244
4,545 4,105 256 139 45 1,451 2,942 1,150 839 -82 1,068 87 519 2,701 1,622 367 1,047
2,557 2,166 231 128 32 1,166 3,085 805 884 -32 112 81 427 160 1,680 350 307
(Million U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) 2,298 2,164 2,142 2,120 1,933 1,821 1,818 1,815 217 204 199 199 132 130 117 100 16 9 7 6 1,085 1,062 1,065 1,063 3,019 2,632 2,040 1,518 742 729 682 639 841 766 755 713 110 219 295 374 98 99 99 100 81 81 81 81 480 514 542 563 150 150 150 150 1,677 1,741 1,783 1,793 250 250 250 250 344 305 325 249
Net CCC Outlays
32,265
18,257
11,583
11,175
2004
10,712
2005
10,209
2006
9,612
2007
2008
2009
2010
2,107 1,815 199 88 6 1,063 1,053 621 683 297 100 81 559 150 1,793 250 208
2,108 1,819 199 83 6 1,066 527 629 626 278 100 81 545 150 1,793 250 158
2,110 1,821 199 83 6 1,066 114 637 609 280 100 81 532 150 1,793 250 135
2,105 1,817 199 83 6 1,063 24 643 572 289 99 81 522 150 1,793 250 132
8,965
8,310
7,856
7,724
124 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Cash Receipts from Farm Marketings Total receipts from farm marketings for 2001 are projected at $201 billion, an increase of $5 billion from the 2000 level. The majority of the increase is fueled by increased crop production and a modest rise in grain prices. Little improvement is expected for 2002, as gains in several commodities are offset by lower hog and dairy receipts. As prices recover and production expands, total receipts are projected to grow to $235 billion by the end of the baseline. Higher prices are projected to increase feedgrain cash receipts to $21.8 billion in 2001, a recovery of $1.3 billion from the 2000 level. Although improved, current levels are still well below the totals observed in the mid1990s. As production and prices increase, receipts steadily increase throughout the baseline, growing to $29 billion by 2010. For 2000, total foodgrain receipts came in at $7 billion as wheat and rice prices continue to remain weak. Recovery begins in 2001 as prices start to strengthen. By 2010, foodgrain receipts are projected to grow to $10.1 billion. However, this is still below the record level of $10.8 billion in 1996. Oilseed cash receipts are expected to rise to $15.5 billion in 2001, as increased production is expected to more than offset lower prices. Beginning in 2002, recovery in soybeans prices, coupled with increased production, pushes receipts higher. Receipts reach $20.7 billion in 2010. Larger production and a recovery in prices pushed cotton receipts up to $5.4 billion in 2000. Receipts are projected to recover further in 2001 due to increased production. Longer term, receipts top $6.5 billion. Continued recovery in cattle prices led to cash receipts of $40.2 billion in 2000, representing a new record. With even stronger prices expected through 2003, cash receipts for cattle and calves are projected to peak at $40.9 billion. As the cattle cycle turns, receipts generally decline thereafter, reaching a low of $37 billion in 2008. Cash receipts for hogs staged a significant recovery in 2000 as prices showed a dramatic increase from the 1999 level. Lower prices over the next two years are expected to lead to lower receipts. After bottoming out at $9.4 billion in 2002, receipts range between $10.6 and $12.2 billion thereafter. Lower milk prices more than offset higher production, causing 2000 dairy receipts to fall by $2.5 billion from the 1999 level of $23.2 billion. Another decline is projected for 2002 with the discontinuation of the dairy price support program. Recovery begins in 2003, with dairy receipts increasing to $24.8 billion by 2010. The combination of lower prices and higher production kept total poultry receipts relatively stable at $23 billion for 2000. As broiler prices recover, receipts increase beginning in 2001. For the 2001-2009 period, poultry receipts grow at an annual average rate of 2.6 percent.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 125
U.S. Cash Receipts s from Farming 2000
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
196.02
201.09
201.89
208.03
(Billion U.S. Dollars) 212.09 214.49 217.30
221.80
226.50
230.48
235.05
96.57
100.26
102.76
105.34
108.21
111.29
114.42
117.68
120.81
123.72
126.82
Feed Grains Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Hay
20.47 15.48 0.84 0.55 0.07 3.52
21.78 16.61 0.90 0.61 0.07 3.58
22.34 17.02 0.99 0.64 0.07 3.61
22.95 17.58 1.00 0.66 0.07 3.63
23.58 18.14 1.02 0.67 0.07 3.67
24.38 18.84 1.05 0.68 0.07 3.73
25.30 19.65 1.09 0.69 0.07 3.80
26.31 20.52 1.12 0.71 0.07 3.88
27.23 21.34 1.14 0.72 0.07 3.96
28.08 22.09 1.17 0.74 0.07 4.01
29.04 22.95 1.20 0.76 0.07 4.05
Food Grains Wheat Rice Rye
7.01 5.63 1.37 0.02
7.27 5.98 1.27 0.02
7.67 6.24 1.41 0.02
8.03 6.53 1.49 0.02
8.33 6.80 1.51 0.02
8.61 7.05 1.54 0.02
8.91 7.32 1.57 0.02
9.25 7.63 1.60 0.02
9.51 7.87 1.62 0.02
9.78 8.12 1.65 0.02
10.11 8.41 1.68 0.02
14.98 5.35 2.02 46.74
15.46 5.74 2.01 48.00
15.69 5.79 2.03 49.23
16.08 5.81 2.03 50.44
16.76 5.90 2.02 51.62
17.49 6.00 2.03 52.79
18.14 6.11 2.03 53.93
18.80 6.22 2.04 55.06
19.51 6.34 2.04 56.17
20.08 6.47 2.05 57.26
20.68 6.60 2.05 58.34
99.45
100.83
99.13
102.69
103.88
103.20
102.88
104.12
105.69
106.76
108.23
Red Meats Cattle, Calves Hogs Sheep, Lambs
51.77 40.16 11.13 0.47
51.65 40.66 10.53 0.46
50.55 40.68 9.41 0.46
52.21 40.92 10.83 0.46
52.22 40.00 11.76 0.46
50.57 38.78 11.34 0.46
49.13 38.01 10.66 0.46
49.24 37.41 11.37 0.46
49.61 36.97 12.18 0.46
49.37 37.12 11.79 0.46
49.38 37.58 11.34 0.46
Dairy Products
20.70
21.27
20.04
21.29
21.84
22.28
22.77
23.27
23.74
24.24
24.83
Poultry, Eggs Broilers Turkeys Chicken Eggs Other Poultry
23.27 15.15 2.95 4.54 0.62
24.19 15.82 2.96 4.72 0.69
24.82 16.32 2.93 4.86 0.71
25.44 16.78 2.98 4.95 0.73
26.03 17.27 3.05 4.96 0.75
26.54 17.66 3.08 5.02 0.77
27.16 18.14 3.12 5.10 0.79
27.77 18.67 3.18 5.12 0.81
28.48 19.20 3.23 5.22 0.83
29.24 19.80 3.30 5.29 0.86
30.07 20.48 3.35 5.36 0.89
3.72
3.73
3.73
3.75
3.78
3.80
3.82
3.84
3.87
3.90
3.94
22.13
13.91
9.59
8.91
8.37
7.84
7.35
6.80
6.38
6.26
6.22
218.14
215.00
211.48
216.94
220.47
222.33
224.65
228.60
232.88
236.74
241.27
Farm Marketings and CCC Loans Crops
Oilseeds Cotton Sugar Other Crops * Livestock and Products
Other Livestock † Government Payments Total Cash Receipts
* Includes tobacco, vegetables and me melons, fruits and tree nuts, and other crops. † Includes horses, mules, and aquacu culture.
2004
2005
126 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Farm Production Expenses Increased costs for purchased livestock push expenses for farm-origin inputs higher in 2000. Expenses are expected to increase to $48 billion in 2001 due primarily to higher feed costs. Expenses are projected to reach $55.1 billion in 2010, with the vast majority of the increase again associated with feed costs. In fact, expenses for purchased livestock are expected to decline steadily after 2003 as feeder cattle prices fall. With higher fuel prices, expenses for manufactured inputs increased by $2.9 billion, or 10 percent, in 2000. Higher natural gas prices are expected to push fertilizer costs higher in 2001. After reaching $32.7 billion in 2001, expenses for manufactured inputs decline through 2003, as input prices are projected to fall. Increased interest rates pushed total interest expenses higher in 2000, reaching $14.2 billion. After small declines in 2001 and 2002, modest growth is projected over the baseline period, with total interest expenses reaching $15.3 billion in 2010. The increased expenses are driven by increased production of crop and livestock commodities, as well as modest increases in interest rates. Growth in labor and miscellaneous expenses contributed the majority of the $1.8 billion increase in other operating expenses for 2000. Over the baseline period, other operating expenses grow from $68.9 billion in 2001 to $79.4 billion by 2010. Miscellaneous expenses and labor costs are the primary growth drivers over the baseline period, with annual growth rates of 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Other overhead expenses are projected to fall to $40.2 billion in 2001, a drop of $300 million from the previous year. The decline is due to lower expenses for rent to non-operator landlords. Rent is projected to decline due to the drop in direct government payments. Longer term, overhead expenses are projected to reach $43.2 billion, with rent expenses contributing most of the growth. Total production expenses are projected to grow to $203.9 billion in 2001. This represents a $4.1 billion increase from the 2000 level and a $14 billion increase from the peak observed in 1997. Increased production levels and modest growth in input prices lead to continued growth in total production expenses. After 2001, production expenses grow at an annual rate of 1.3 percent.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 127
U.S. Farm Productio on Expenses 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Farm-Origin Inputs Feed Purchased Livestock Seed
47.11 24.67 15.24 7.19
47.97 25.40 15.35 7.22
48.79 26.17 15.36 7.26
49.58 26.79 15.46 7.32
(Billion U.S. Dollars) 50.19 50.49 51.20 27.67 28.67 29.75 15.10 14.29 13.79 7.43 7.54 7.66
52.04 30.75 13.50 7.80
52.80 31.64 13.23 7.94
53.76 32.45 13.24 8.08
55.06 33.29 13.53 8.24
Manufactured Inputs Fertilizer, Lime Petroleum Fuel, Oils Electricity Pesticides
30.21 10.45 8.08 3.04 8.64
32.73 12.71 8.05 3.16 8.81
31.42 11.96 7.62 3.13 8.70
31.18 11.60 7.56 3.15 8.86
31.42 11.57 7.53 3.19 9.12
31.86 11.67 7.55 3.26 9.38
32.50 11.81 7.67 3.34 9.67
33.20 12.04 7.79 3.39 9.97
33.90 12.26 7.91 3.45 10.27
34.67 12.49 8.07 3.51 10.61
35.53 12.75 8.24 3.57 10.97
Interest Charges Short-Term Interest Real Estate Interest
14.22 7.05 7.17
14.15 7.03 7.12
14.09 7.00 7.09
14.22 7.06 7.15
14.41 7.16 7.25
14.58 7.25 7.34
14.76 7.33 7.43
14.92 7.41 7.51
15.05 7.47 7.57
15.14 7.52 7.62
15.25 7.57 7.68
Other Operating Exp. Repair, Operation of Capital Items Contract, Hired Labor Machine Hire Custom Work Marketing, Storage, and Transportation Miscellaneous
67.69
68.85
69.45
70.38
71.59
72.80
74.10
75.36
76.63
77.96
79.36
10.60 20.74
10.67 21.32
10.72 21.72
10.80 22.15
10.93 22.65
11.05 23.18
11.19 23.73
11.31 24.26
11.43 24.80
11.55 25.34
11.68 25.89
5.53
5.58
5.55
5.55
5.58
5.61
5.65
5.69
5.74
5.79
5.85
7.58 23.24
7.84 23.45
7.77 23.69
7.87 24.01
8.01 24.43
8.08 24.88
8.17 25.36
8.25 25.84
8.36 26.31
8.48 26.81
8.62 27.33
Other Overhead Exp. Capital Consumption Property Taxes Rent to Nonoperators
40.48 19.81 7.14 13.53
40.16 19.85 7.23 13.08
40.20 20.09 7.32 12.80
40.46 20.18 7.37 12.91
40.74 20.26 7.43 13.06
41.05 20.34 7.51 13.21
41.41 20.44 7.59 13.38
41.80 20.57 7.67 13.56
42.21 20.71 7.78 13.72
42.68 20.85 7.90 13.92
43.19 21.03 8.02 14.15
Production Expenses
199.71
203.85
203.95
205.82
208.36
210.79
213.97
217.32
220.60
224.21
228.40
Noncash Expenses Labor Perquisites Net Cap Consumption
18.91 0.60 18.31
18.95 0.60 18.35
19.19 0.60 18.59
19.28 0.60 18.68
19.36 0.60 18.76
19.44 0.60 18.84
19.54 0.60 18.94
19.67 0.60 19.07
19.81 0.60 19.21
19.95 0.60 19.35
20.13 0.60 19.53
Op Dwelling Expenses
2.81
2.85
2.88
2.91
2.94
2.97
3.00
3.03
3.06
3.09
3.12
177.98
182.06
181.88
183.62
186.06
188.39
191.43
194.62
197.74
201.16
205.15
Cash Expenses
2005
128 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Net Farm Income Total farm receipts are projected to increase to $217.6 billion in 2001, driven primarily by increased crop receipts. For 2002, receipts are projected to increase by only $1 billion, as higher crop receipts are partially offset by lower livestock receipts. With the majority of the growth occurring in crops, total farm receipts are projected to reach $254 billion by 2010. After reaching a record level of $22.1 billion in 2000, direct government payments are projected to fall to $13.9 billion in 2001, with lower LDPs and the assumption of no additional assistance packages. As crop prices recover and LDPs decline, direct payments decline to $6.2 billion by 2010, reflecting continued AMTA and CRP payments. Non-money income comprises the value of home consumption of farm products and the imputed rental value of farm dwellings. With the average value of land and buildings projected to show a modest increase, non-money income is projected to grow from $11.9 billion in 2001 to $13.1 billion in 2010. The value of inventory change is projected at $0.04 billion in 2001. The increase from the 2000 level is due to a rise in the value of livestock inventories. With trend yields and stable crops prices, the value of inventory change remains at relatively low levels throughout the baseline. Net cash income is projected to decline to $49.5 billion in 2001 due to lower government payments and higher production expenses. Cash income falls further in 2002, as government payments continue to decline and pork and milk prices weaken. Recovery begins in 2003. However, at no time in the baseline does net cash income return to the 2000 level of $56.4 billion. Accounting for the value of inventory change, non-money income, and total expenses, net farm income is projected to decline $39.6 billion in 2001, a $5.8 billion decline from the 2000 level. As with net cash income, net farm income falls further in 2002. At $36.3 billion, 2002 net farm income would be the lowest since 1986. Longer term, net farm income reaches $44 billion by 2010. After accounting for inflation, real net farm income (in 1997 dollars) falls to $37.5 billion in 2001, a decline of $6.2 billion from the previous year. Real farm income falls to $33.9 billion in 2002 before showing modest recovery through 2004. The longer-term trend is for declining real income.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 129
U.S. Farm Income Statistics S 2000
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
212.29 96.57 99.45 16.27
217.60 100.26 100.83 16.51
218.63 102.76 99.13 16.74
225.02 105.34 102.69 16.99
(Billion U.S. Dollars) 229.35 232.02 235.11 108.21 111.29 114.42 103.88 103.20 102.88 17.26 17.53 17.81
239.89 117.68 104.12 18.09
244.87 120.81 105.69 18.37
249.12 123.72 106.76 18.65
253.98 126.82 108.23 18.93
22.13
13.91
9.59
8.91
8.37
7.84
7.35
6.80
6.38
6.26
6.22
234.41
231.51
228.22
233.93
237.73
239.86
242.45
246.69
251.25
255.39
260.20
4. Nonmoney Income
11.73
11.91
11.98
12.15
12.36
12.37
12.41
12.58
12.77
12.95
13.15
5. Value of Inventory Change
-1.04
0.04
0.06
0.23
0.48
0.50
0.11
-0.24
-0.36
-0.41
-0.47
6. Gross Farm Income (3 + 4 + 5)
245.11
243.46
240.26
246.32
250.56
252.72
254.98
259.02
263.66
267.92
272.88
7. Cash Expenses †
177.98
182.06
181.88
183.62
186.06
188.39
191.43
194.62
197.74
201.16
205.15
8. Total Expenses
199.71
203.85
203.95
205.82
208.36
210.79
213.97
217.32
220.60
224.21
228.40
9. Net Cash Income (3 - 7)
56.44
49.46
46.34
50.31
51.67
51.47
51.02
52.07
53.51
54.22
55.05
10. Realized Net Farm Income (3 + 4 - 8)
46.44
39.57
36.25
40.27
41.73
41.44
40.89
41.94
43.41
44.13
44.95
11. Net Farm Income (6 - 8) Deflated (1997 $) ‡
45.40
39.61
36.31
40.50
42.21
41.93
41.00
41.70
43.06
43.72
44.48
43.71
37.51
33.85
37.17
38.13
37.36
35.90
35.81
36.24
36.03
35.88
1. Farm Receipts Crops Livestock Farm-Related * 2. Government Payments 3. Gross Cash Income (1 + 2)
2004
2005
w * Income from machine hire, custom work, sales of forest products, and other miscellaneous cash sources. † Excludes capital consumption, perq quisites to hired labor, and farm household expenses. ‡ Deflated by the GNP price deflator,, 1997=1.
130 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Crop Insurance Net acres insured rose to 205 million acres in 2000, due in part to the provisions of the disaster assistance packages in the last two years. The increase in participation continues through the next decade due to the passage of the Agricultural Risk Protection Act (ARPA) of 2000. In 2001, net acres insured rise to 216 million acres and steadily climb to more than 219 million acres by 2010. The increase in participation due to ARPA is driven mainly by the increased premium subsidies provided by the act. Revenue insurance products capture most of the participation increase. Total premiums rose to $2.5 billion in 2000. This increase arises from growth in overall participation and, particularly, in buy-up participation. In 2001, total premium levels rise again to $2.95 billion due to increases in buy-up participation and low crop prices. Total premiums trend upward, reaching $3.4 billion in 2010. Premium subsidies exceed $1.3 billion in 2000. The new premium subsidy structure takes effect in the 2001 crop year. With this new structure, premium subsidies rise to $1.7 billion in 2001 and continue to grow throughout the rest of the projection period. Total indemnities (insurance payments) follow a pattern similar to total premiums. Loss ratios of one indicate that “actuarially fair” premiums are being charged for the insurance products. These projections show that, overall, federal crop insurance will meet the loss ratio targets set by Congress. Total obligations represent the federal government’s financial responsibility for crop insurance. They are the costs for crop insurance before taking any crop insurance revenues into account. Total obligations are equal to the sum of indemnities, delivery expenses, administrative and operating expenses, agent commissions, and other expenses. Over the projection period, total obligations exceed $2.9 billion each year. By 2010, the federal government’s total financial obligation for crop insurance reaches $4 billion. Net outlays take underwriting costs and crop insurance revenues into account. They are equal to the sum of total obligations and underwriting costs minus producer-paid premiums. Net outlays neared $2.2 billion in 2000. Most of this increase can be attributed to the temporary premium subsidies from the disaster assistance packages. The effect of the permanent change in premium subsidies from ARPA is not fully seen until 2002. After 2002, net outlays for crop insurance increase to nearly $3.2 billion in 2010. Budget authority is the amount the law allows the federal government to spend for the program. For crop insurance, it represents net outlays on a crop-year basis. Budget authority for 1999 and 2000 is nearly $2 billion a year. In 2001, this rises to $2.6 billion. By 2010, budget authority for crop insurance rises to $3.2 billion.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 131
Crop Insurance 2000
2001
2002
2003
267.09 205.28
265.99 215.64
267.04 216.48
266.22 216.02
76.86
81.07
81.06
81.14
Total Premiums Producer-Paid Premiums Premium Subsidies Total Indemnities
2.52 1.18 1.34 2.14
2.95 1.25 1.70 2.95
2.96 1.23 1.73 2.96
Loss Ratio
0.85
1.00
Total Obligations Net Outlays Budget Authority
2.91 2.20 1.84
2.93 2.06 2.64
Eligible Acres Net Acres Insured Crop Insurance Participation Rate
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Million Acres) 266.82 267.27 267.77 216.55 217.02 217.51
268.31 218.02
268.82 218.50
269.19 218.91
269.62 219.37
81.26
81.28
81.32
81.36
(Billion U.S. Dollars, Crop Year) 3.02 3.05 3.09 3.13 1.24 1.22 1.24 1.20 1.79 1.84 1.85 1.94 3.02 3.05 3.09 3.13
3.19 1.21 1.98 3.19
3.25 1.23 2.02 3.25
3.31 1.25 2.06 3.31
3.37 1.26 2.11 3.37
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.58 2.65 2.67
(Billion U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) 3.62 3.68 3.72 3.76 2.70 2.77 2.82 2.87 2.76 2.81 2.84 2.94
3.82 2.96 3.00
3.89 3.02 3.07
3.97 3.09 3.13
4.04 3.15 3.19
81.16
1.00
2005
(Percent) 81.20
1.00
81.23
1.00
132 / Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Agricultural Exports Total U.S. agricultural exports increased 10.7 percent by volume in 1999/00, rising for the first time since exports peaked in 1995/96. Despite the increase in volume, the value of U.S. exports declined 8.5 percent as a result of the lowest agricultural prices in more than a decade. A gradual recovery in agricultural prices drives the value of agricultural exports up by 3.6 percent in 2000/01, and both export volume and value continue to rise 2 to 4 percent annually for the next decade. The value of U.S. exports increases more than 46 percent by 2010. A little more than half of the growth in value is explained by increases in the total volume of exports; the remainder is generated by strengthening prices. U.S. exports rise 41.3 mmt over the baseline, with grains and feeds accounting for 63.8 percent and oilseeds and oilseed products comprising 18.8 percent of the total growth. An 18.9 mmt rise in grain and feed exports, predominately corn exports, accounts for 27 percent of the total increase in export value. Indirect exports of corn—measured by the feed-grain equivalent of beef, pork, and poultry exports—exceed 7 mmt by 2010, an increase of 43 percent over 1999/00 levels. Together, direct and indirect exports of corn will increase by more than 25 mmt. Growth in high-value agricultural exports accounts for 63 percent of the $22.9 billion increase in the value of U.S. agricultural exports over the baseline. Just over 40 percent of the growth in high-value exports is accounted for by increases in horticulture and other exports. The value of animal and animal product exports rises nearly 70 percent over the baseline, accounting for 30 percent of the total growth in the value of U.S. exports. Nearly 60 percent of the increase in animal product exports will come from beef and pork exports.
Aggregate Measures: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 133
Quantity of U.S. Agr gricultural Exports
Animals and Animal Products Grains and Feeds Wheat (Unmilled and Flour) Rice (Paddy Milled) Feed Grains and Products Other Grains and Feeds Oilseeds and Products Cotton (excl. Linters) Other Products Total
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
6,685
6,840
7,013
(Thousand Metric Tons, Fiscal Year) 7,036 7,151 7,332 7,541 7,734
7,921
8,071
8,174
104,009 106,916 107,183 108,388 110,177 113,490 116,937 120,466 124,273 127,793 130,941 28,712 28,701 27,291 27,302 27,830 28,358 28,850 29,361 29,863 30,262 30,723 3,299 3,060 3,143 3,270 3,280 3,229 3,206 3,155 3,111 3,041 2,989 57,195 59,984 61,116 62,007 63,005 65,513 68,183 70,842 73,081 75,894 78,334 14,803 15,171 15,633 15,810 16,062 16,390 16,698 17,108 18,218 18,596 18,895 36,055 1,474 9,167
36,000 1,595 9,517
38,849 1,883 9,920
40,264 1,917 10,288
40,868 1,937 10,603
41,235 1,969 10,958
41,230 2,004 11,283
41,198 2,037 11,611
41,219 2,069 11,927
41,270 2,101 12,255
41,371 2,131 12,592
157,390 160,867 164,849 167,892 170,736 174,984 178,996 183,046 187,408 191,490 195,209
Value of U.S. Agricu ultural Exports 00/01
01/02
02/03
Bulk Commodities * High-value Products †
18,858 32,078
19,415 33,852
Animals and Animal Products Meat and Meat Products Poultry and Poultry Products Dairy Products Hides and Skins Other Animal Products
11,662 5,480 2,252 996 1,479 1,455
Grains and Feeds Wheat (Unmilled and Flour) Rice (Paddy Milled) Coarse Grains Corn Other Feed Grains Feeds and Fodders
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
20,453 35,437
(Million U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) 21,232 22,045 22,953 23,837 24,733 36,318 37,663 38,835 39,918 41,114
25,711 42,461
26,576 43,625
27,471 44,612
12,387 6,069 2,283 887 1,641 1,507
12,785 6,226 2,335 898 1,722 1,604
13,059 6,343 2,362 875 1,833 1,647
13,806 6,907 2,377 873 1,925 1,723
14,320 7,246 2,421 874 2,014 1,766
14,780 7,532 2,449 879 2,110 1,810
15,341 7,901 2,477 883 2,221 1,859
16,069 8,368 2,525 887 2,366 1,922
16,573 8,587 2,592 892 2,525 1,976
16,923 8,658 2,664 896 2,688 2,016
13,788 3,602 903 5,483 4,603 879 3,800
14,310 3,725 814 5,912 5,068 844 3,859
15,164 3,871 864 6,478 5,617 861 3,951
15,610 3,995 936 6,698 5,800 898 3,981
16,160 4,215 981 6,921 6,000 921 4,044
16,798 4,380 978 7,321 6,369 952 4,120
17,511 4,534 994 7,779 6,773 1,006 4,203
18,275 4,718 997 8,276 7,225 1,051 4,284
19,060 4,913 1,011 8,713 7,636 1,077 4,423
19,745 5,044 1,001 9,198 8,087 1,111 4,502
20,492 5,206 1,004 9,704 8,544 1,160 4,579
8,386 5,070 1,199 278 1,838
8,472 5,105 1,253 266 1,849
8,873 5,289 1,339 348 1,898
9,178 5,622 1,296 324 1,936
9,496 5,885 1,282 355 1,975
9,860 6,154 1,302 383 2,020
10,104 6,327 1,313 414 2,050
10,311 6,458 1,333 445 2,076
10,570 6,652 1,336 475 2,108
10,841 6,831 1,357 512 2,141
11,029 6,979 1,368 518 2,164
Tobacco, unmanufactured Cotton and Linters Horticulture and Other Products
1,229 1,809 13,562
1,355 2,290 14,330
1,382 2,678 15,008
1,378 2,736 15,589
1,386 2,782 16,078
1,396 2,848 16,566
1,404 2,921 17,035
1,411 2,995 17,514
1,416 3,071 17,988
1,420 3,150 18,473
1,425 3,229 18,984
Total
50,936
53,267
55,890
57,550
59,708
61,788
63,755
65,847
68,172
70,201
72,083
Oilseeds and Products Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Other Oilseeds and Products
03/04
04/05
* Bulk Commodities include wheat, ric rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. † High-value is total exports minus bu ulk commodities.
05/06
06/07
WORLD WHEAT
136 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Wheat Since peaking in 1996/97, world wheat area has declined continuously, falling nearly 15 mha. Strengthening world wheat prices reverse this downward trend by 2001/02. World wheat area increases 4.3 mha from 1999/00 to 2002/ 03, driven mainly by growth in the United States, China, Russia, and Ukraine. Wheat area rises more slowly after 2003, averaging 0.1 percent annually. World wheat production grows an average of 1.44 percent annually, with a total increase of nearly 90 mmt over the outlook period. The greatest growth for wheat imports occurs in Asian countries. China is expected to account for a quarter of the expansion in world wheat trade. China’s imports rise from 1 mmt in 2000/01 to 5.65 mmt in 2010/11. High-income East Asian countries depend on imported wheat to meet their sharply increasing domestic needs. Imports in this region increase 19.26 percent over the outlook period. Import growth in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa remains slight but steady. Following droughts in two consecutive years, Iran established itself as the Middle East’s largest wheat importer. However, Iranian wheat imports fall nearly 3 mmt in 2001/02 and then slowly but steadily increase over the baseline. Boosted by growing international demand, world wheat prices grow 2.76 percent annually over the baseline, reaching $159 per mt in 2010/11. Increasing demand in developing countries contributes to sustained growth of world wheat trade, which rises nearly 21 percent or 19 mmt during the next decade. India has been a wild card player on international wheat markets for the last decade, alternating as an importer and exporter of wheat depending on domestic production. India’s exports are projected to reach approximately 1 mmt by 2000/01 and then decline steadily, as domestic consumption rises faster than domestic supply. During the second half of the projection period, India is expected to become a net wheat importer, with Indian imports reaching 2.23 mmt by the end of the next decade. Despite appreciation of the euro, the EU wheat price remains below the world price. This allows EU exports to be competitive on world wheat markets without subsidies. During the next decade, EU wheat production rises continuously at an average annual rate of 1.91 percent. The EU is expected to expand its exports by nearly 12 mmt and capture more than 60 percent of the world wheat trade expansion. Though exports rise slowly, Canada remains the second largest wheat exporter until 2007/08. After 2007, the EU overtakes Canada and moves into second place behind the United States. Australian wheat production grows 28.6 percent over the baseline, the highest rate among major producers. This growth, coupled with a slow increase in domestic consumption, enables Australia to increase its exports more than 3 mmt over the outlook period. Argentina’s exports increase 2.12 mmt over the outlook period, reaching more than 14 mmt by 2010/11. In the context of expanding trade, U.S. wheat exports grow slower than those of other competitors. U.S. exports peak at 29.42 mmt in 2010/11, rising at an average annual rate of less than 0.5 percent from the level of 28.03 mmt in 2000/01. As a result, U.S. market share drops from 31 percent to 27 percent by the end of the outlook period.
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 137
Wheat Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Canada Czech Republic Hungary European Union Ukraine United States Total Net Exports
Net Importers Japan Russia Other Former Soviet Union Other Western Europe Other Eastern Europe Poland Developing China High-Income East Asia India Pakistan Other Asia Brazil Mexico Other Latin America Algeria Egypt Iran Morocco Tunisia Other Africa/Middle East Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports
Wheat Prices U.S. FOB Gulf Canadian Thunder Bay Australian Wheat Board CIF Rotterdam
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11.97 14.95 18.85 0.70 1.40 11.98 -0.10 28.03
11.95 15.93 18.89 0.83 1.65 13.75 0.96 25.80
12.35 16.23 18.84 0.84 1.72 14.40 1.50 25.55
12.62 16.36 19.02 0.81 1.75 15.73 1.53 26.07
(Million Metric Tons) 12.89 13.12 13.32 16.46 16.63 16.87 19.06 19.16 19.24 0.77 0.73 0.67 1.79 1.83 1.85 16.60 17.59 18.69 1.53 1.48 1.43 26.60 27.09 27.57
13.52 17.14 19.35 0.60 1.88 19.75 1.43 28.13
13.73 17.46 19.50 0.53 1.91 21.36 1.42 28.50
13.91 17.81 19.73 0.45 1.94 22.91 1.40 28.94
14.09 18.32 20.03 0.37 1.96 23.82 1.44 29.42
90.56
89.75
91.44
93.88
95.71
97.63
99.65
101.81
104.41
107.09
109.45
5.50 2.00 -1.48 0.41 1.10 0.95 76.34 1.00 5.08 -0.95 -0.35 12.59 7.90 1.90 8.69 5.20 6.20 7.50 2.93 1.10 17.11 0.45 2.97
5.35 2.25 0.23 0.42 1.23 0.78 77.00 2.53 5.15 -0.88 1.65 12.67 7.58 2.00 8.82 5.21 6.29 4.80 2.98 1.15 16.63 0.44 2.50
5.35 1.70 0.10 0.43 1.26 0.81 79.28 2.99 5.24 -0.49 1.82 12.80 7.67 1.99 8.84 5.14 6.32 4.99 3.05 1.20 17.28 0.44 2.50
5.36 1.98 0.05 0.44 1.28 0.83 81.44 3.63 5.31 -0.19 1.95 13.03 7.77 1.99 8.89 5.04 6.39 5.20 3.16 1.25 17.56 0.44 2.50
5.37 2.02 0.14 0.45 1.32 0.82 83.08 3.99 5.40 -0.05 1.96 13.30 7.87 2.01 8.98 5.08 6.45 5.34 3.22 1.31 17.78 0.44 2.50
5.37 1.98 0.23 0.46 1.38 0.79 84.92 4.45 5.50 0.06 2.05 13.57 7.97 2.05 9.11 5.14 6.52 5.45 3.28 1.37 17.96 0.45 2.50
5.38 1.94 0.32 0.47 1.45 0.77 86.82 4.95 5.59 0.24 2.14 13.74 8.08 2.10 9.27 5.21 6.59 5.54 3.36 1.43 18.12 0.45 2.50
5.39 1.83 0.48 0.48 1.50 0.77 88.86 5.19 5.70 0.75 2.24 13.89 8.19 2.17 9.43 5.29 6.68 5.63 3.46 1.50 18.28 0.45 2.50
5.39 1.66 0.66 0.49 1.58 0.77 91.35 5.42 5.81 1.35 2.37 14.31 8.31 2.25 9.63 5.37 6.78 5.73 3.57 1.57 18.42 0.45 2.50
5.40 1.52 0.82 0.50 1.65 0.79 93.91 5.61 5.93 2.00 2.59 14.59 8.43 2.35 9.87 5.46 6.88 5.82 3.71 1.65 18.55 0.46 2.50
5.41 1.46 1.06 0.51 1.72 0.84 95.95 5.65 6.05 2.23 2.84 14.83 8.56 2.47 10.13 5.54 7.00 5.92 3.86 1.72 18.69 0.46 2.50
90.56
89.75
91.44
93.88
95.71
97.63
99.65
101.81
104.41
107.09
109.45
121.17 112.80 95.06 142.84
130.24 122.54 103.35 153.41
131.63 123.33 103.81 155.03
136.84 128.59 108.50 161.11
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 139.89 142.66 146.26 131.65 134.57 138.48 111.24 113.72 117.06 164.67 167.89 172.09
150.15 142.73 120.74 176.62
152.33 145.06 122.78 179.17
155.14 147.98 152.14 182.45
159.05 152.03 152.39 187.01
138 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Wheat Area Harvested, Production, and Consumption Million Metric Tons
Million Hectares 235
800 700
230 600 225 500 220
400 300
215 200 210 100 205
0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Production
2000/01
2002/03
Consumption
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Area Harvested
World Wheat Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent
Dollars per Metric Ton
240
30
200
25
160 20 120 15 80 10
40
5
0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Stock-to-Use Ratio
U.S. FOB Gulf Price
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 139
Wheat Net Exports by Major Competitors Million Metric Tons 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Argentina
Australia
2002/03
2004/05
Canada
EU
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Wheat Net Imports by Major Regions Million Metric Tons 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97 Asia
1998/99
2000/01
Latin America
Africa and Middle East
140 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Asian Wheat Imports Million Metric Tons 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
China
1998/99
2000/01
India
2002/03
2004/05
High-Income East Asia
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Other Asia
High Income East Asia: Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore. Other Asia excluding China and India.
Wheat Trade by Transition Economies Million Metric Tons 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Eastern Europe
2000/01 Ukraine
2002/03 Russia
2004/05 Other FSU
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 141
U.S. Wheat Trade and Market Share Million Metric Tons 45
Percent 45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5 0
0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
U.S. Exports
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Market Share
EU Wheat Production, Consumption, and Net Trade Million Metric Tons 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Production
2000/01
2002/03
Consumption
2004/05 Net Trade
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
142 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Wheat Supply ly and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
215.42
218.18
219.68
2.68
2.73
Production Beginning Stocks Total Supply
578.22 125.73 703.94
Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade *
Stock to Use Ratio
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
219.22
(Million Hectares) 219.45 219.62 219.68
219.83
220.15
221.13
221.23
2.76
2.79
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.82 2.85 2.88
2.91
2.94
2.99
3.01
595.40 107.56 702.96
606.03 101.18 707.21
611.47 100.54 712.01
(Million Metric Tons) 619.38 626.92 633.78 98.09 96.75 96.10 717.47 723.67 729.87
640.61 95.30 735.92
648.01 94.33 742.34
660.38 93.42 753.79
666.88 97.95 764.83
596.38 107.56 703.94
601.78 101.18 702.96
606.68 100.54 707.21
613.92 98.09 712.01
620.72 96.75 717.47
627.57 96.10 723.67
634.57 95.30 729.87
641.59 94.33 735.92
648.92 93.42 742.34
655.85 97.95 753.79
662.78 102.05 764.83
90.56
89.75
91.44
93.88
95.71
97.63
99.65
101.81
104.41
107.09
109.45
18.04
16.81
16.57
15.98
15.59
(Percent) 15.31
15.02
14.70
14.40
14.93
15.40
05/06
* Excludes intraregional trade.
U.S. Wheat Supply and a Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
21.46
21.69
22.23
22.11
(Million Hectares) 22.31 22.43 22.52
22.64
22.79
22.86
22.93
2.82
2.76
2.78
2.81
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.83 2.85 2.88
2.90
2.92
2.95
2.97
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
60.51 25.85 86.36
59.95 22.22 82.17
61.80 20.60 82.41
62.01 20.29 82.30
(Million Metric Tons) 63.13 64.00 64.80 19.75 19.47 19.19 82.88 83.46 83.99
65.66 18.87 84.54
66.63 18.55 85.18
67.39 18.32 85.71
68.11 18.04 86.15
Feed and Residual Seed Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
8.12 2.28 25.71 22.22 58.33
7.16 2.41 25.93 20.60 56.10
7.56 2.41 26.32 20.29 56.58
7.06 2.45 26.70 19.75 55.96
7.00 2.48 27.06 19.47 56.00
7.01 2.50 27.39 19.19 56.10
7.04 2.53 27.70 18.87 56.15
7.02 2.56 28.00 18.55 56.14
7.18 2.59 28.32 18.32 56.40
7.22 2.61 28.63 18.04 56.50
7.20 2.63 28.93 17.69 56.46
28.03
26.07
25.83
26.34
26.88
27.37
27.84
28.40
28.77
29.21
29.70
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 143
Argentine Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
6.25
6.35
6.45
Yield
2.64
2.60
16.50 0.15 16.65
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
6.49
(Million Hectares) 6.54 6.56 6.57
6.58
6.59
6.59
6.59
2.63
2.66
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.70 2.73 2.76
2.80
2.83
2.86
2.90
16.50 0.18 16.68
16.97 0.19 17.16
17.29 0.19 17.48
(Million Metric Tons) 17.62 17.91 18.16 0.20 0.20 0.21 17.82 18.11 18.36
18.40 0.21 18.61
18.66 0.22 18.87
18.89 0.22 19.11
19.11 0.23 19.33
4.50 0.18 4.68
4.54 0.19 4.73
4.62 0.19 4.81
4.67 0.20 4.87
4.73 0.20 4.93
4.78 0.21 4.99
4.83 0.21 5.04
4.87 0.22 5.09
4.92 0.22 5.14
4.97 0.23 5.19
5.01 0.23 5.24
11.97
11.95
12.35
12.62
12.89
13.12
13.32
13.52
13.73
13.91
14.09
05/06
Australian Wheat Supply Su and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
12.00
11.99
11.99
11.93
(Million Hectares) 11.90 11.91 11.96
12.03
12.11
12.20
12.39
1.63
1.83
1.85
1.87
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.89 1.91 1.94
1.96
1.98
2.00
2.02
19.50 4.07 23.57
21.94 2.98 24.92
22.19 3.26 25.45
22.33 3.41 25.74
(Million Metric Tons) 22.52 22.80 23.15 3.49 3.56 3.65 26.01 26.36 26.80
23.53 3.77 27.30
23.96 3.90 27.86
24.42 4.04 28.46
25.08 4.20 29.28
5.64 2.98 8.62
5.72 3.26 8.99
5.81 3.41 9.22
5.90 3.49 9.39
5.99 3.56 9.55
6.08 3.65 9.73
6.17 3.77 9.93
6.26 3.90 10.16
6.35 4.04 10.40
6.45 4.20 10.65
6.55 4.41 10.96
14.95
15.93
16.23
16.36
16.46
16.63
16.87
17.14
17.46
17.81
18.32
144 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
10.90
10.96
10.98
10.97
(Million Hectares) 10.94 10.90 10.86
10.86
10.88
10.93
10.99
2.46
2.48
2.51
2.53
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.55 2.58 2.60
2.62
2.65
2.67
2.69
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
26.80 7.40 34.20
27.20 7.15 34.34
27.51 7.15 34.67
27.75 7.35 35.10
(Million Metric Tons) 27.92 28.08 28.23 7.48 7.59 7.66 35.41 35.67 35.89
28.47 7.67 36.14
28.80 7.66 36.46
29.17 7.72 36.89
29.59 7.84 37.43
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4.20 4.00 7.15 15.35
4.26 4.04 7.15 15.45
4.40 4.08 7.35 15.82
4.47 4.13 7.48 16.08
4.58 4.17 7.59 16.35
4.64 4.21 7.66 16.51
4.72 4.26 7.67 16.65
4.82 4.30 7.66 16.79
4.89 4.35 7.72 16.96
4.93 4.39 7.84 17.16
4.96 4.44 8.00 17.40
18.85
18.89
18.84
19.02
19.06
19.16
19.24
19.35
19.50
19.73
20.03
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
Eastern European Wheat W Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
8.78
8.86
8.87
8.86
(Million Hectares) 8.86 8.85 8.83
8.81
8.80
8.78
8.76
Yield
3.16
3.36
3.40
3.43
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.47 3.50 3.54
3.58
3.61
3.65
3.69
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
27.75 3.90 31.65
29.77 2.45 32.22
30.14 2.40 32.53
30.42 2.34 32.76
(Million Metric Tons) 30.73 31.01 31.26 2.28 2.24 2.20 33.00 33.24 33.46
31.51 2.18 33.69
31.78 2.15 33.93
32.05 2.14 34.18
32.30 2.12 34.42
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
9.90 19.25 2.45 31.60
10.00 19.35 2.40 31.75
10.24 19.47 2.34 32.05
10.43 19.60 2.28 32.31
10.61 19.74 2.24 32.59
10.79 19.87 2.20 32.86
10.99 20.00 2.18 33.16
11.21 20.12 2.15 33.47
11.48 20.22 2.14 33.84
11.78 20.32 2.12 34.23
12.14 20.41 2.11 34.65
0.05
0.47
0.48
0.44
0.42
0.38
0.31
0.21
0.10
-0.05
-0.23
Net Trade
04/05
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 145
European Union Wh heat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
17.68
17.68
17.76
17.74
(Million Hectares) 17.81 17.88 17.91
17.93
17.97
18.89
18.85
5.81
5.83
5.93
6.00
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 6.10 6.19 6.27
6.36
6.44
6.51
6.58
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
102.63 13.10 115.73
103.17 14.00 117.17
105.30 12.86 118.16
106.50 12.67 119.16
(Million Metric Tons) 108.60 110.64 112.33 11.60 11.01 10.93 120.20 121.65 123.26
113.94 10.68 124.61
115.69 10.19 125.88
122.91 9.42 132.33
124.03 14.03 138.06
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
42.95 46.80 14.00 103.75
43.49 47.08 12.86 103.43
43.74 47.35 12.67 103.76
44.19 47.64 11.60 103.43
44.70 47.89 11.01 103.60
44.99 48.15 10.93 104.06
45.54 48.36 10.68 104.57
46.09 48.59 10.19 104.86
46.31 48.79 9.42 104.52
46.42 48.97 14.03 109.41
46.44 49.15 18.64 114.24
11.98
13.75
14.40
15.73
16.60
17.59
18.69
19.75
21.36
22.91
23.82
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
Ukrainian Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
5.70
5.93
6.16
6.17
(Million Hectares) 6.19 6.20 6.20
6.22
6.24
6.23
6.25
Yield
1.93
2.20
2.22
2.24
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.26 2.28 2.30
2.32
2.34
2.36
2.38
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
11.00 0.90 11.90
13.04 0.35 13.39
13.67 0.44 14.11
13.83 0.46 14.29
(Million Metric Tons) 14.00 14.13 14.27 0.47 0.48 0.48 14.47 14.61 14.75
14.43 0.49 14.91
14.60 0.49 15.09
14.70 0.50 15.20
14.87 0.50 15.37
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.15 10.50 0.35 12.00
1.38 10.61 0.44 12.43
1.59 10.55 0.46 12.61
1.79 10.50 0.47 12.76
2.00 10.46 0.48 12.94
2.23 10.42 0.48 13.13
2.45 10.38 0.49 13.32
2.64 10.35 0.49 13.48
2.86 10.32 0.50 13.68
3.01 10.30 0.50 13.80
3.16 10.27 0.51 13.93
-0.10
0.96
1.50
1.53
1.53
1.48
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.40
1.44
Net Trade
146 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Japanese Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.17
0.17
0.17
Yield
3.53
3.55
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.60 1.20 1.80
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.17
(Million Hectares) 0.16 0.16 0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
3.56
3.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.60 3.62 3.63
3.65
3.67
3.69
3.70
0.60 1.10 1.70
0.60 0.97 1.57
0.59 0.88 1.47
(Million Metric Tons) 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.81 0.77 0.74 1.41 1.36 1.33
0.59 0.72 1.31
0.59 0.71 1.30
0.59 0.70 1.29
0.58 0.70 1.28
6.20 1.10 7.30
6.08 0.97 7.05
6.04 0.88 6.92
6.02 0.81 6.83
6.00 0.77 6.77
5.99 0.74 6.74
5.99 0.72 6.71
5.99 0.71 6.70
5.99 0.70 6.69
5.99 0.70 6.69
5.99 0.70 6.69
-5.50
-5.35
-5.35
-5.36
-5.37
-5.37
-5.38
-5.39
-5.39
-5.40
-5.41
05/06
Russian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
23.00
23.38
23.78
23.50
(Million Hectares) 23.44 23.45 23.46
23.46
23.50
23.48
23.46
1.59
1.50
1.52
1.53
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.55 1.56 1.58
1.59
1.61
1.62
1.64
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
36.50 1.00 37.50
35.06 2.50 37.56
36.03 2.63 38.66
35.96 2.70 38.66
(Million Metric Tons) 36.23 36.60 36.98 2.70 2.72 2.74 38.92 39.31 39.72
37.36 2.77 40.13
37.79 2.80 40.59
38.14 2.83 40.97
38.49 2.86 41.35
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
12.40 24.60 2.50 39.50
12.49 24.69 2.63 39.81
12.96 24.70 2.70 40.36
13.22 24.72 2.70 40.64
13.47 24.76 2.72 40.95
13.75 24.80 2.74 41.29
14.04 24.86 2.77 41.66
14.25 24.91 2.80 41.97
14.44 24.98 2.83 42.26
14.59 25.04 2.86 42.49
14.81 25.11 2.89 42.80
-2.00
-2.25
-1.70
-1.98
-2.02
-1.98
-1.94
-1.83
-1.66
-1.52
-1.46
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 147
Other Former Sovie et Union Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
14.16
13.93
13.88
13.86
(Million Hectares) 13.85 13.86 13.86
13.86
13.86
13.83
13.78
1.41
1.35
1.36
1.37
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.38 1.39 1.40
1.41
1.42
1.43
1.44
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
19.94 3.84 23.78
18.80 3.87 22.67
18.88 4.32 23.20
18.98 4.53 23.51
(Million Metric Tons) 19.12 19.26 19.40 4.56 4.59 4.62 23.67 23.85 24.03
19.54 4.66 24.19
19.68 4.69 24.37
19.78 4.72 24.50
19.85 4.75 24.59
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4.26 14.17 3.87 22.30
4.21 14.37 4.32 22.90
4.31 14.45 4.53 23.30
4.46 14.54 4.56 23.56
4.59 14.64 4.59 23.81
4.72 14.74 4.62 24.08
4.84 14.85 4.66 24.35
5.01 14.97 4.69 24.67
5.21 15.09 4.72 25.03
5.34 15.23 4.75 25.32
5.52 15.37 4.76 25.65
1.48
-0.23
-0.10
-0.05
-0.14
-0.23
-0.32
-0.48
-0.66
-0.82
-1.06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
Other Western Euro opean Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
(Million Hectares) 0.18 0.18 0.18
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.19
Yield
5.39
5.46
5.54
5.61
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.68 5.75 5.82
5.90
5.97
6.05
6.12
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.89 0.48 1.37
0.92 0.48 1.39
0.94 0.48 1.42
0.97 0.48 1.45
(Million Metric Tons) 1.00 1.02 1.05 0.49 0.49 0.50 1.49 1.52 1.55
1.08 0.50 1.58
1.11 0.51 1.62
1.14 0.51 1.65
1.17 0.52 1.69
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.30 0.48 1.78
1.33 0.48 1.81
1.37 0.48 1.86
1.40 0.49 1.89
1.44 0.49 1.94
1.48 0.50 1.98
1.52 0.50 2.02
1.55 0.51 2.06
1.59 0.51 2.11
1.64 0.52 2.15
1.67 0.52 2.20
-0.41
-0.42
-0.43
-0.44
-0.45
-0.46
-0.47
-0.48
-0.49
-0.50
-0.51
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
148 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
27.00
27.87
27.87
27.68
(Million Hectares) 27.51 27.31 27.08
26.91
26.77
26.65
26.56
3.78
3.97
4.01
4.05
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.09 4.13 4.17
4.21
4.25
4.29
4.33
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
102.00 25.25 127.25
110.57 14.25 124.82
111.68 12.85 124.53
112.05 12.21 124.27
(Million Metric Tons) 112.45 112.72 112.88 12.27 12.41 12.55 124.73 125.13 125.43
113.25 12.69 125.94
113.71 12.81 126.53
114.29 12.95 127.24
114.94 13.10 128.04
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.00 112.00 14.25 128.25
1.99 112.51 12.85 127.35
1.99 113.31 12.21 127.52
2.00 113.62 12.27 127.90
2.03 114.28 12.41 128.72
2.06 114.97 12.55 129.58
2.08 115.60 12.69 130.38
2.11 116.21 12.81 131.13
2.13 116.86 12.95 131.95
2.16 117.59 13.10 132.85
2.18 118.28 13.24 133.70
-1.00
-2.53
-2.99
-3.63
-3.99
-4.45
-4.95
-5.19
-5.42
-5.61
-5.65
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
High-Income East Asian A Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
(Million Hectares) 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Yield
3.54
3.57
3.61
3.64
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.68 3.72 3.75
3.79
3.83
3.87
3.90
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.01 1.40 1.41
0.01 1.34 1.35
0.01 1.35 1.36
0.01 1.37 1.37
(Million Metric Tons) 0.01 0.01 0.01 1.38 1.39 1.41 1.39 1.40 1.42
0.01 1.42 1.43
0.01 1.44 1.44
0.01 1.45 1.46
0.01 1.47 1.47
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
5.14 1.34 6.48
5.15 1.35 6.50
5.23 1.37 6.60
5.31 1.38 6.69
5.39 1.39 6.79
5.49 1.41 6.90
5.59 1.42 7.01
5.69 1.44 7.13
5.81 1.45 7.26
5.93 1.47 7.39
6.05 1.48 7.53
-5.08
-5.15
-5.24
-5.31
-5.40
-5.50
-5.59
-5.70
-5.81
-5.93
-6.05
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 149
Indian Wheat Supplly and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
26.74
26.82
26.78
26.75
(Million Hectares) 26.80 26.89 26.98
27.06
27.13
27.16
27.17
2.78
2.68
2.72
2.76
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.80 2.84 2.87
2.89
2.92
2.94
2.96
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
74.30 14.11 88.41
71.97 15.96 87.93
72.87 15.35 88.22
73.81 14.61 88.42
(Million Metric Tons) 75.01 76.31 77.48 13.80 13.11 12.50 88.81 89.42 89.98
78.32 11.97 90.29
79.16 11.48 90.64
79.88 11.09 90.97
80.55 10.73 91.29
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.50 71.00 15.96 87.46
0.51 71.19 15.35 87.05
0.52 72.60 14.61 87.73
0.53 73.90 13.80 88.23
0.54 75.11 13.11 88.75
0.55 76.43 12.50 89.48
0.56 77.69 11.97 90.22
0.57 78.99 11.48 91.04
0.58 80.31 11.09 91.99
0.59 81.65 10.73 92.98
0.60 82.96 9.95 93.51
0.95
0.88
0.49
0.19
0.05
-0.06
-0.24
-0.75
-1.35
-2.00
-2.23
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
Pakistani Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
8.60
8.87
8.85
8.83
(Million Hectares) 8.86 8.86 8.86
8.86
8.85
8.80
8.75
Yield
2.44
2.28
2.33
2.37
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.42 2.46 2.51
2.55
2.60
2.64
2.69
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
21.00 2.20 23.20
20.26 1.25 21.51
20.60 1.15 21.75
20.95 1.10 22.05
(Million Metric Tons) 21.44 21.84 22.23 1.06 1.05 1.04 22.50 22.89 23.27
22.62 1.03 23.66
23.00 1.03 24.03
23.29 1.04 24.32
23.54 1.04 24.58
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.50 21.10 1.25 22.85
0.51 21.50 1.15 23.16
0.52 21.96 1.10 23.58
0.53 22.41 1.06 24.00
0.54 22.87 1.05 24.46
0.55 23.34 1.04 24.93
0.56 23.82 1.03 25.41
0.57 24.30 1.03 25.90
0.58 24.79 1.04 26.41
0.59 25.29 1.04 26.92
0.60 25.78 1.05 27.43
0.35
-1.65
-1.82
-1.95
-1.96
-2.05
-2.14
-2.24
-2.37
-2.59
-2.84
Net Trade
150 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
3.77
3.79
3.81
Yield
1.45
1.53
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
5.47 2.35 7.82
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
3.80
(Million Hectares) 3.79 3.80 3.80
3.80
3.80
3.80
3.80
1.57
1.60
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.61 1.63 1.65
1.66
1.68
1.70
1.71
5.82 2.35 8.17
5.98 2.33 8.31
6.06 2.31 8.38
(Million Metric Tons) 6.12 6.20 6.26 2.29 2.28 2.27 8.42 8.47 8.52
6.33 2.25 8.58
6.39 2.24 8.62
6.45 2.22 8.68
6.51 2.21 8.73
18.06 2.35 20.41
18.51 2.33 20.83
18.80 2.31 21.11
19.11 2.29 21.41
19.44 2.28 21.72
19.78 2.27 22.04
20.01 2.25 22.26
20.23 2.24 22.47
20.71 2.22 22.93
21.06 2.21 23.27
21.36 2.20 23.56
-12.59
-12.67
-12.80
-13.03
-13.30
-13.57
-13.74
-13.89
-14.31
-14.59
-14.83
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Brazilian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
1.35
1.33
1.33
1.33
(Million Hectares) 1.34 1.35 1.35
1.35
1.36
1.36
1.37
Yield
1.19
1.60
1.62
1.64
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.66 1.69 1.71
1.73
1.75
1.78
1.80
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.60 1.15 2.75
2.12 1.00 3.12
2.16 1.00 3.16
2.19 1.01 3.20
(Million Metric Tons) 2.23 2.27 2.31 1.02 1.02 1.03 3.25 3.29 3.34
2.34 1.04 3.38
2.38 1.04 3.43
2.42 1.05 3.48
2.46 1.06 3.52
9.65 1.00 10.65
9.70 1.00 10.70
9.83 1.01 10.84
9.96 1.02 10.97
10.09 1.02 11.11
10.23 1.03 11.26
10.38 1.04 11.42
10.53 1.04 11.57
10.69 1.05 11.74
10.85 1.06 11.91
11.01 1.07 12.08
-7.90
-7.58
-7.67
-7.77
-7.87
-7.97
-8.08
-8.19
-8.31
-8.43
-8.56
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 151
Mexican Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.75
0.77
0.78
Yield
4.40
4.43
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3.30 0.60 3.90
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.80
(Million Hectares) 0.81 0.82 0.83
0.84
0.85
0.86
0.87
4.45
4.48
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.50 4.53 4.55
4.58
4.60
4.63
4.65
3.40 0.45 3.85
3.49 0.46 3.95
3.56 0.47 4.03
(Million Metric Tons) 3.64 3.72 3.79 0.48 0.48 0.49 4.12 4.20 4.28
3.86 0.50 4.35
3.93 0.51 4.43
3.99 0.51 4.51
4.06 0.52 4.58
5.35 0.45 5.80
5.39 0.46 5.85
5.47 0.47 5.94
5.55 0.48 6.02
5.64 0.48 6.13
5.75 0.49 6.25
5.88 0.50 6.38
6.01 0.51 6.52
6.17 0.51 6.68
6.34 0.52 6.86
6.53 0.52 7.05
-1.90
-2.00
-1.99
-1.99
-2.01
-2.05
-2.10
-2.17
-2.25
-2.35
-2.47
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Other Latin America an Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.87
0.92
0.98
1.03
(Million Hectares) 1.07 1.10 1.12
1.13
1.15
1.15
1.16
Yield
2.50
2.45
2.47
2.49
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.51 2.53 2.55
2.57
2.59
2.61
2.63
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.17 0.91 3.07
2.24 0.86 3.10
2.43 0.87 3.29
2.57 0.87 3.44
(Million Metric Tons) 2.69 2.78 2.85 0.88 0.89 0.90 3.57 3.67 3.75
2.91 0.91 3.82
2.97 0.92 3.89
3.01 0.93 3.94
3.05 0.94 3.99
10.90 0.86 11.76
11.05 0.87 11.92
11.26 0.87 12.13
11.45 0.88 12.33
11.67 0.89 12.56
11.89 0.90 12.79
12.11 0.91 13.02
12.34 0.92 13.25
12.59 0.93 13.51
12.87 0.94 13.81
13.17 0.95 14.12
-8.69
-8.82
-8.84
-8.89
-8.98
-9.11
-9.27
-9.43
-9.63
-9.87
-10.13
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
152 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Algerian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.80
1.13
1.25
Yield
0.94
1.00
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.75 1.00 1.75
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.39
(Million Hectares) 1.41 1.41 1.42
1.42
1.42
1.42
1.42
1.01
1.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.03 1.04 1.05
1.06
1.07
1.07
1.08
1.13 0.65 1.78
1.26 0.66 1.92
1.42 0.67 2.09
(Million Metric Tons) 1.45 1.47 1.48 0.68 0.69 0.70 2.13 2.16 2.18
1.50 0.71 2.21
1.51 0.72 2.23
1.52 0.73 2.25
1.54 0.74 2.28
6.30 0.65 6.95
6.32 0.66 6.98
6.39 0.67 7.06
6.45 0.68 7.13
6.52 0.69 7.21
6.60 0.70 7.30
6.69 0.71 7.40
6.78 0.72 7.50
6.87 0.73 7.60
6.97 0.74 7.71
7.07 0.75 7.82
-5.20
-5.21
-5.14
-5.04
-5.08
-5.14
-5.21
-5.29
-5.37
-5.46
-5.54
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Egyptian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
1.10
1.11
1.12
1.13
(Million Hectares) 1.13 1.13 1.13
1.13
1.13
1.12
1.11
Yield
6.00
6.04
6.10
6.18
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 6.28 6.40 6.54
6.70
6.88
7.08
7.30
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
6.60 1.05 7.65
6.80 0.90 7.70
6.87 0.91 7.77
6.92 0.91 7.83
(Million Metric Tons) 6.98 7.03 7.09 0.91 0.92 0.92 7.89 7.95 8.01
7.14 0.93 8.07
7.19 0.93 8.13
7.25 0.94 8.19
7.30 0.95 8.25
12.95 0.90 13.85
13.08 0.91 13.99
13.18 0.91 14.09
13.30 0.91 14.22
13.42 0.92 14.34
13.54 0.92 14.47
13.67 0.93 14.60
13.81 0.93 14.75
13.97 0.94 14.91
14.12 0.95 15.07
14.29 0.95 15.24
-6.20
-6.29
-6.32
-6.39
-6.45
-6.52
-6.59
-6.68
-6.78
-6.88
-7.00
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 153
Iranian Wheat Supp ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
6.00
6.61
6.60
Yield
1.25
1.77
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
7.50 2.48 9.98
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
6.59
(Million Hectares) 6.58 6.58 6.57
6.57
6.57
6.57
6.57
1.80
1.83
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.87 1.91 1.95
1.98
2.02
2.06
2.10
11.68 1.33 13.01
11.87 1.33 13.19
12.08 1.33 13.41
(Million Metric Tons) 12.32 12.56 12.80 1.33 1.33 1.33 13.64 13.88 14.13
13.04 1.33 14.37
13.29 1.33 14.62
13.54 1.33 14.86
13.78 1.33 15.11
0.30 15.85 1.33 17.48
0.31 16.18 1.33 17.81
0.31 16.54 1.33 18.18
0.32 16.97 1.33 18.62
0.32 17.34 1.33 18.99
0.33 17.68 1.33 19.34
0.33 18.01 1.33 19.67
0.34 18.34 1.33 20.00
0.34 18.68 1.33 20.34
0.35 19.01 1.33 20.68
0.35 19.35 1.33 21.03
-7.50
-4.80
-4.99
-5.20
-5.34
-5.45
-5.54
-5.63
-5.73
-5.82
-5.92
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Moroccan Wheat Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
2.50
2.19
2.21
2.25
(Million Hectares) 2.28 2.32 2.35
2.38
2.41
2.44
2.46
Yield
0.60
1.20
1.22
1.23
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.25 1.26 1.28
1.29
1.31
1.32
1.34
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.50 2.60 4.10
2.63 1.40 4.03
2.69 0.00 2.69
2.76 1.14 3.91
(Million Metric Tons) 2.84 2.92 2.99 1.09 1.05 1.03 3.93 3.97 4.03
3.07 1.02 4.09
3.14 1.01 4.15
3.22 1.01 4.22
3.29 1.00 4.29
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
5.63 1.40 7.03
5.77 0.00 5.77
5.84 1.14 6.98
5.98 1.09 7.07
6.09 1.05 7.14
6.22 1.03 7.25
6.37 1.02 7.39
6.54 1.01 7.55
6.72 1.01 7.73
6.92 1.00 7.93
7.15 1.00 8.15
-2.93
-2.98
-3.05
-3.16
-3.22
-3.28
-3.36
-3.46
-3.57
-3.71
-3.86
Net Trade
154 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Tunisian Wheat Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.65
0.66
0.67
Yield
1.15
1.19
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.75 0.80 1.55
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.67
(Million Hectares) 0.68 0.68 0.69
0.69
0.70
0.70
0.71
1.21
1.23
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.26 1.28 1.30
1.33
1.35
1.37
1.40
0.78 0.63 1.41
0.81 0.53 1.34
0.83 0.48 1.31
(Million Metric Tons) 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.46 0.44 0.44 1.31 1.32 1.34
0.92 0.44 1.37
0.94 0.45 1.40
0.97 0.46 1.43
0.99 0.47 1.46
2.02 0.63 2.65
2.03 0.53 2.56
2.06 0.48 2.54
2.11 0.46 2.57
2.18 0.44 2.62
2.25 0.44 2.69
2.33 0.44 2.78
2.42 0.45 2.87
2.51 0.46 2.97
2.60 0.47 3.07
2.70 0.48 3.18
-1.10
-1.15
-1.20
-1.25
-1.31
-1.37
-1.43
-1.50
-1.57
-1.65
-1.72
Other African/Middlle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
14.98
14.97
14.94
14.93
(Million Hectares) 14.93 14.92 14.91
14.90
14.89
14.89
14.88
1.89
1.92
1.94
1.96
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.98 2.00 2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
2.10
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
28.37 7.86 36.23
28.68 7.83 36.50
28.94 6.91 35.84
29.23 6.50 35.74
(Million Metric Tons) 29.54 29.84 30.13 6.28 6.16 6.07 35.82 35.99 36.21
30.43 6.00 36.43
30.72 5.93 36.65
31.02 5.88 36.90
31.31 5.83 37.14
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
45.51 7.83 53.34
46.22 6.91 53.13
46.61 6.50 53.12
47.02 6.28 53.30
47.44 6.16 53.60
47.88 6.07 53.95
48.32 6.00 54.33
48.78 5.93 54.71
49.19 5.88 55.07
49.62 5.83 55.45
50.06 5.76 55.82
-17.11
-16.63
-17.28
-17.56
-17.78
-17.96
-18.12
-18.28
-18.42
-18.55
-18.69
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 155
Czech Republic Wh heat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
1.00
1.04
1.05
Yield
4.10
4.12
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4.10 0.35 4.45
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.06
(Million Hectares) 1.06 1.07 1.07
1.07
1.08
1.08
1.08
4.13
4.15
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.16 4.18 4.19
4.21
4.22
4.24
4.25
4.29 0.35 4.64
4.36 0.35 4.71
4.39 0.35 4.75
(Million Metric Tons) 4.43 4.46 4.49 0.36 0.36 0.36 4.78 4.82 4.85
4.52 0.37 4.88
4.55 0.37 4.92
4.58 0.37 4.95
4.60 0.38 4.98
1.70 1.70 0.35 3.75
1.72 1.74 0.35 3.81
1.73 1.78 0.35 3.87
1.75 1.83 0.36 3.94
1.77 1.88 0.36 4.01
1.80 1.93 0.36 4.09
1.84 1.97 0.37 4.18
1.89 2.02 0.37 4.28
1.94 2.07 0.37 4.38
2.00 2.12 0.38 4.49
2.06 2.17 0.38 4.61
0.70
0.83
0.84
0.81
0.77
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.45
0.37
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Hungarian Wheat Supply S and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
1.03
1.12
1.14
1.14
(Million Hectares) 1.14 1.14 1.14
1.14
1.13
1.13
1.13
Yield
3.61
3.71
3.75
3.78
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.82 3.86 3.90
3.94
3.98
4.01
4.05
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3.70 0.40 4.10
4.17 0.10 4.27
4.28 0.04 4.33
4.32 0.02 4.35
(Million Metric Tons) 4.37 4.41 4.44 0.01 0.02 0.03 4.39 4.43 4.47
4.47 0.05 4.52
4.51 0.07 4.58
4.54 0.11 4.65
4.57 0.14 4.71
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.10 1.50 0.10 2.70
1.08 1.50 0.04 2.63
1.07 1.51 0.02 2.61
1.06 1.52 0.01 2.59
1.05 1.52 0.02 2.59
1.05 1.53 0.03 2.60
1.04 1.53 0.05 2.62
1.03 1.53 0.07 2.64
1.02 1.54 0.11 2.67
1.03 1.54 0.14 2.71
1.03 1.54 0.18 2.76
1.40
1.65
1.72
1.75
1.79
1.83
1.85
1.88
1.91
1.94
1.96
Net Trade
156 / World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Polish Wheat Supp ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
2.60
2.60
2.60
Yield
3.23
3.50
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
8.40 1.30 9.70
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2.61
(Million Hectares) 2.61 2.61 2.61
2.61
2.61
2.61
2.61
3.54
3.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.63 3.67 3.72
3.76
3.80
3.85
3.90
9.10 0.90 10.00
9.22 0.94 10.16
9.34 0.95 10.29
(Million Metric Tons) 9.46 9.58 9.69 0.96 0.97 0.98 10.42 10.55 10.68
9.81 1.00 10.81
9.93 1.01 10.94
10.04 1.02 11.06
10.16 1.03 11.19
4.50 5.25 0.90 10.65
4.57 5.26 0.94 10.77
4.73 5.29 0.95 10.97
4.85 5.32 0.96 11.12
4.92 5.35 0.97 11.24
4.97 5.38 0.98 11.34
5.04 5.41 1.00 11.45
5.14 5.43 1.01 11.57
5.24 5.44 1.02 11.71
5.37 5.45 1.03 11.85
5.54 5.45 1.04 12.03
-0.95
-0.78
-0.81
-0.83
-0.82
-0.79
-0.77
-0.77
-0.77
-0.79
-0.84
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Other Eastern Euro opean Wheat Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
4.15
4.10
4.07
4.06
(Million Hectares) 4.05 4.03 4.01
3.99
3.98
3.96
3.94
Yield
2.78
3.00
3.03
3.07
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.10 3.13 3.17
3.20
3.24
3.27
3.31
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
11.55 1.85 13.40
12.29 1.10 13.39
12.35 1.14 13.49
12.44 1.16 13.60
(Million Metric Tons) 12.54 12.63 12.71 1.17 1.19 1.20 13.72 13.82 13.91
12.79 1.21 14.00
12.88 1.22 14.10
12.96 1.24 14.20
13.04 1.25 14.29
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.60 10.80 1.10 14.50
2.63 10.85 1.14 14.62
2.70 10.89 1.16 14.76
2.77 10.94 1.17 14.88
2.86 10.99 1.19 15.04
2.96 11.04 1.20 15.20
3.06 11.09 1.21 15.36
3.15 11.13 1.22 15.51
3.27 11.17 1.24 15.68
3.39 11.21 1.25 15.85
3.50 11.25 1.26 16.01
-1.10
-1.23
-1.26
-1.28
-1.32
-1.38
-1.45
-1.50
-1.58
-1.65
-1.72
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Wheat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 157
Rest-of-World Whea at Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.06
0.06
0.06
Yield
5.00
5.05
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.28 0.10 0.38
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.06
(Million Hectares) 0.06 0.06 0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
5.10
5.15
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.20 5.26 5.31
5.36
5.41
5.47
5.52
0.28 0.10 0.38
0.28 0.10 0.38
0.28 0.10 0.38
(Million Metric Tons) 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.39 0.39 0.39
0.29 0.10 0.39
0.30 0.10 0.40
0.30 0.10 0.40
0.30 0.10 0.40
0.71 0.10 0.81
0.72 0.10 0.82
0.72 0.10 0.82
0.73 0.10 0.83
0.73 0.10 0.83
0.74 0.10 0.84
0.74 0.10 0.84
0.74 0.10 0.84
0.75 0.10 0.85
0.76 0.10 0.86
0.76 0.10 0.86
-0.45
-0.44
-0.44
-0.44
-0.44
-0.45
-0.45
-0.45
-0.45
-0.46
-0.46
WORLD RICE
160 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Rice World rice area decreases from 151.9 mha in 2000/01 to 149.57 mha in 2010/11. Continued urbanization and competition from other crops contribute to the decline in rice area. However, steadily rising yields offset the decline in rice area and increase world rice production by 36.72 mmt over the baseline. World rice consumption increases at the same rate as production, growing 0.86 percent annually over the baseline. The growth in world rice consumption occurs mainly in non-traditional rice-consuming countries, such as the U.S., the EU, and Canada. Conversely, per capita consumption in Asian countries declines as a consequence of urbanization and income growth. World rice trade exceeds the 1998/99 peak level by 2003/04. Over the outlook period, world rice trade increases by nearly one-third, growing an average of 2.88 percent annually. Aided by the decline in per capita consumption, Asian countries capture most of the increase in rice exports. Thai rice production increases 10.6 percent over the outlook period, mostly through increases in yields. With Thai rice consumption remaining relatively flat, exports increase 27.4 percent, strengthening Thailand’s position as the world’s largest rice exporter. Thailand captures almost 27 percent of the increase in world rice trade. Vietnam and India secure most of the remaining increase in rice trade, capturing 27.2 and 34.6 percent respectively. Despite a slight decline in area, Indian rice production increases at an average annual rate of 1.24 percent. India’s share of exports doubles during the baseline, and India becomes the world’s third largest exporter in 2008/09. Vietnamese rice production grows 1.76 percent a year, driven by yield increases. Despite rising domestic consumption, Vietnamese rice exports increase by 1.75 mmt over the outlook period. Over the last three years, China has been a significant exporter on the world rice market. Relatively flat consumption in the early years of the outlook period, along with increases in yields, allows China’s share of exports to grow to 15.75 percent by 2003/04. In the long run, growing domestic consumption reduces Chinese rice exports to their 2000/01 level, and China’s market share drops to nearly 11 percent by 2010/11. Indonesia remains the world’s largest importer of rice, with imports accounting for slightly less than 10 percent of world rice trade. Indonesia becomes increasingly more dependent on imported rice to meet its domestic needs, importing an additional 0.71 mmt over the outlook period. WTO minimum import access commitments contribute to a steady decline in Japanese and South Korean rice area and weak growth in yields. Consequently, rice production falls 4.02 percent in Japan and 7.28 percent in South Korea over the outlook period. Japanese imports reach 0.60 mmt in 2010/11, as compared to 0.15 mmt in 2000/01. Rice exports from Argentina and Uruguay increase, respectively, 0.62 mmt and 0.33 mmt by 2010/11, supplying growing demand for imported rice in Brazil and other MERCOSUR countries. U.S. rice consumption grows 2.08 percent annually over the next decade. With both area and yield increases in the early years of the baseline, growth in domestic production is able to meet domestic needs and allow increases in U.S. exports until 2003/04. However, U.S. rice exports decline in the latter half of the baseline, falling to 2 mmt in 2010/11.
World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 161
Rice Trade 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Net Exporters Argentina China India Myanmar (Burma) Pakistan Taiwan Thailand United States Uruguay Vietnam
0.20 2.95 1.25 0.25 1.80 0.15 6.30 2.24 0.69 3.76
0.37 2.35 2.18 0.21 1.89 0.11 6.70 2.27 0.73 4.13
0.57 2.80 2.56 0.17 1.90 0.09 6.80 2.39 0.76 4.20
0.59 3.76 2.92 0.11 1.93 0.09 6.95 2.41 0.78 4.32
Total Net Exports
19.58
20.95
22.24
23.86
24.08
24.22
0.68 0.38 1.80 0.15 0.75 0.78 0.13 13.70 1.22
0.85 0.36 2.10 0.25 1.09 0.86 0.13 14.08 1.22
1.01 0.41 2.02 0.30 1.38 0.87 0.15 14.87 1.22
1.12 0.45 2.22 0.60 1.58 0.90 0.18 15.59 1.22
1.15 0.48 2.16 0.60 1.70 0.93 0.21 15.63 1.22
19.58
20.95
22.24
23.86
24.08
192.00 182.84
207.36 197.06
218.30 207.18
233.50 221.24
Net Importers Brazil European Union Indonesia Japan Philippines Saudi Arabia South Korea Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports
Rice Prices FOB Bangkok 100% B Grade FOB Bangkok 15% Broken
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Million Metric Tons) 0.63 0.66 0.69 3.73 3.36 3.24 2.88 3.04 3.09 0.08 0.05 0.02 1.95 1.98 2.01 0.09 0.09 0.10 7.10 7.26 7.41 2.34 2.31 2.25 0.81 0.84 0.87 4.47 4.63 4.79
0.72 3.20 3.10 0.00 2.04 0.11 7.56 2.20 0.91 4.96
0.76 3.03 3.20 0.06 2.06 0.12 7.72 2.12 0.94 5.15
0.79 2.87 3.41 0.05 2.09 0.14 7.87 2.06 0.98 5.33
0.82 2.89 3.47 0.01 2.11 0.15 8.03 1.99 1.02 5.51
24.49
24.82
25.17
25.58
26.00
1.09 0.51 2.15 0.60 1.74 0.96 0.21 15.73 1.22
1.08 0.55 2.22 0.60 1.76 1.00 0.21 15.85 1.22
1.10 0.58 2.30 0.60 1.77 1.04 0.21 16.00 1.22
1.11 0.61 2.41 0.60 1.77 1.09 0.21 16.14 1.22
1.17 0.65 2.47 0.60 1.78 1.15 0.21 16.33 1.22
1.23 0.68 2.51 0.60 1.79 1.21 0.21 16.54 1.22
24.22
24.49
24.82
25.17
25.58
26.00
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 236.31 243.97 249.19 223.84 230.92 235.76
259.06 244.88
262.35 247.92
268.80 253.90
276.42 260.94
162 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Rice Area Harvested Million Hectares 156 154 152 150 148 146 144 142 140 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
World Rice Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent
Dollars per Metric Ton
400
18
350
16 14
300
12 250 10 200 8 150
6
100
4
50
2 0
0 1990/91
1992/93 1994/95
1996/97 1998/99
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05
FOB Bangkok Price
2006/07 2008/09
Stock-to-Use Ratio
2010/11
World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 163
Rice Net Imports by Major Countries Million Metric Tons 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Japan
2000/01
Indonesia
2002/03
2004/05
Saudi Arabia
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Brazil
Rice Net Exports by Major Countries Million Metric Tons 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97 China
1998/99 India
2000/01
Pakistan
2002/03
Thailand
2004/05
Vietnam
2006/07
U.S.
2008/09
2010/11
164 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Rice Supply and a Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
151.93
151.01
150.59
2.64
2.67
Production Beginning Stock Total Supply
400.57 65.33 465.90
Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade
Stock to Use Ratio
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
150.48
(Million Hectares) 150.47 150.36 150.27
150.11
150.05
149.81
149.57
2.70
2.74
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.77 2.79 2.82
2.85
2.88
2.90
2.92
402.92 62.95 465.87
407.29 59.52 466.81
411.92 57.37 469.29
(Million Metric Tons) 416.29 420.22 424.14 56.54 56.45 56.87 472.83 476.66 481.02
427.92 57.43 485.34
431.71 58.23 489.93
434.86 58.61 493.47
437.29 58.42 495.72
402.96 62.95 465.90
406.35 59.52 465.87
409.44 57.37 466.81
412.75 56.54 469.29
416.38 56.45 472.83
419.79 56.87 476.66
423.59 57.43 481.02
427.12 58.23 485.34
431.33 58.61 489.93
435.04 58.42 493.47
439.05 56.66 495.72
19.58
20.95
22.24
23.86
24.08
24.22
24.49
24.82
25.17
25.58
26.00
15.62
14.65
14.01
13.70
13.56
(Percent) 13.55
13.56
13.63
13.59
13.43
12.91
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
U.S. Rice Supply an nd Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
1.23
1.32
1.37
1.36
(Million Hectares) 1.36 1.36 1.36
1.35
1.35
1.34
1.33
Yield
7.04
6.77
6.78
6.83
(Metric Tons per Hectares) 6.88 6.92 6.97
7.02
7.07
7.12
7.17
Production Beginning Stock Domestic Supply
6.11 0.88 6.99
6.30 0.82 7.12
6.56 0.82 7.37
6.60 0.85 7.45
(Million Metric Tons) 6.65 6.70 6.73 0.84 0.84 0.84 7.48 7.54 7.57
6.76 0.84 7.59
6.78 0.82 7.60
6.81 0.82 7.63
6.81 0.82 7.64
Food Seed Brewing Residual Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3.10 0.13 0.49 0.21 0.82 4.75
3.19 0.14 0.50 0.21 0.82 4.85
3.27 0.14 0.51 0.21 0.85 4.98
3.35 0.14 0.51 0.21 0.83 5.04
3.44 0.14 0.52 0.21 0.84 5.14
3.52 0.14 0.52 0.21 0.84 5.23
3.61 0.14 0.53 0.21 0.83 5.32
3.69 0.14 0.53 0.21 0.82 5.39
3.78 0.14 0.54 0.21 0.82 5.49
3.86 0.14 0.54 0.21 0.82 5.57
3.94 0.14 0.55 0.21 0.81 5.64
2.24
2.27
2.39
2.41
2.34
2.31
2.25
2.20
2.12
2.06
1.99
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 165
Argentine Rice Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.12
0.18
0.24
Yield
3.33
3.55
Production Beginning Stock Domestic Supply
0.40 0.06 0.46
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.24
(Million Hectares) 0.25 0.26 0.27
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.29
3.60
3.65
(Metric Tons per Hectares) 3.70 3.75 3.80
3.85
3.90
3.94
3.99
0.65 0.05 0.69
0.86 0.04 0.90
0.89 0.05 0.94
(Million Metric Tons) 0.93 0.97 1.01 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.99 1.03 1.08
1.05 0.08 1.13
1.10 0.09 1.18
1.13 0.10 1.24
1.17 0.12 1.29
0.21 0.05 0.26
0.27 0.04 0.31
0.28 0.05 0.33
0.29 0.05 0.34
0.29 0.06 0.35
0.30 0.07 0.37
0.31 0.08 0.39
0.31 0.09 0.40
0.32 0.10 0.42
0.33 0.12 0.45
0.34 0.13 0.47
0.20
0.37
0.57
0.59
0.63
0.66
0.69
0.72
0.76
0.79
0.82
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Brazilian Rice Supp ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
3.55
3.54
3.49
3.46
(Million Hectares) 3.46 3.44 3.42
3.38
3.35
3.31
3.26
Yield
2.08
2.10
2.15
2.20
(Metric Tons per Hectares) 2.24 2.29 2.33
2.37
2.42
2.46
2.50
Production Beginning Stock Domestic Supply
7.40 1.24 8.64
7.45 0.97 8.42
7.50 0.81 8.31
7.61 0.76 8.37
(Million Metric Tons) 7.76 7.87 7.96 0.83 0.97 1.07 8.59 8.84 9.03
8.03 1.14 9.17
8.10 1.19 9.29
8.14 1.22 9.36
8.16 1.24 9.41
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
8.35 0.97 9.32
8.46 0.81 9.27
8.56 0.76 9.32
8.66 0.83 9.49
8.77 0.97 9.74
8.87 1.07 9.94
8.97 1.14 10.11
9.07 1.19 10.26
9.18 1.22 10.40
9.28 1.24 10.52
9.38 1.26 10.64
-0.68
-0.85
-1.01
-1.12
-1.15
-1.09
-1.08
-1.10
-1.11
-1.17
-1.23
Net Trade
166 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Rice Suppl ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
30.30
30.01
30.00
29.98
(Million Hectares) 29.89 29.73 29.58
29.40
29.26
29.01
28.77
4.50
4.57
4.63
4.69
(Metric Tons per Hectares) 4.73 4.78 4.82
4.86
4.89
4.93
4.95
Production Beginning Stock Domestic Supply
136.50 26.23 162.73
137.19 23.03 160.21
138.98 21.01 159.99
140.54 20.42 160.97
(Million Metric Tons) 141.47 141.99 142.49 20.31 20.94 22.26 161.78 162.93 164.74
142.94 23.82 166.76
143.22 25.52 168.75
142.99 26.98 169.97
142.52 27.65 170.16
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
136.75 23.03 159.78
136.85 21.01 157.86
136.77 20.42 157.20
136.90 20.31 157.21
137.11 20.94 158.05
137.31 22.26 159.57
137.68 23.82 161.50
138.04 25.52 163.56
138.74 26.98 165.72
139.46 27.65 167.11
140.20 27.07 167.27
2.95
2.35
2.80
3.76
3.73
3.36
3.24
3.20
3.03
2.87
2.89
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
European Union Ric ce Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
(Million Hectares) 0.40 0.40 0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
Yield
4.17
4.20
4.23
4.26
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.29 4.32 4.35
4.38
4.41
4.44
4.47
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.66 0.67 2.32
1.67 0.61 2.28
1.68 0.57 2.26
1.70 0.55 2.25
(Million Metric Tons) 1.71 1.72 1.74 0.54 0.53 0.53 2.25 2.25 2.26
1.75 0.52 2.27
1.76 0.52 2.28
1.77 0.52 2.29
1.78 0.52 2.30
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.09 0.61 2.70
2.07 0.57 2.64
2.11 0.55 2.67
2.16 0.54 2.70
2.20 0.53 2.73
2.24 0.53 2.77
2.29 0.52 2.81
2.33 0.52 2.85
2.37 0.52 2.89
2.42 0.52 2.94
2.46 0.52 2.98
-0.38
-0.36
-0.41
-0.45
-0.48
-0.51
-0.55
-0.58
-0.61
-0.65
-0.68
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 167
Indian Rice Supply and a Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
44.60
44.20
43.91
43.86
(Million Hectares) 43.84 43.86 43.90
43.91
43.96
44.00
44.04
1.98
2.00
2.04
2.07
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.10 2.13 2.16
2.19
2.22
2.25
2.27
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
88.50 16.40 104.90
88.60 19.65 108.25
89.37 20.35 109.72
90.61 20.20 110.80
(Million Metric Tons) 91.93 93.32 94.74 19.54 18.78 17.89 111.46 112.09 112.64
96.12 16.97 113.09
97.56 16.06 113.62
99.05 15.13 114.18
100.11 14.14 114.24
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
84.00 19.65 103.65
85.72 20.35 106.07
86.96 20.20 107.16
88.35 19.54 107.88
89.81 18.78 108.59
91.16 17.89 109.06
92.58 16.97 109.55
93.92 16.06 109.98
95.29 15.13 110.42
96.64 14.14 110.77
98.03 12.75 110.77
1.25
2.18
2.56
2.92
2.88
3.04
3.09
3.10
3.20
3.41
3.47
05/06
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
Indonesian Rice Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11.70
11.84
11.92
11.97
(Million Hectares) 12.00 12.01 12.02
12.03
12.03
12.03
12.04
2.86
2.92
2.95
2.98
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.01 3.04 3.07
3.10
3.13
3.16
3.19
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
33.50 3.13 36.62
34.57 1.92 36.49
35.16 1.68 36.84
35.65 1.44 37.09
(Million Metric Tons) 36.09 36.50 36.90 1.50 1.53 1.55 37.59 38.03 38.44
37.29 1.53 38.82
37.67 1.52 39.19
38.05 1.50 39.55
38.44 1.50 39.94
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
36.50 1.92 38.42
36.91 1.68 38.60
37.43 1.44 38.87
37.81 1.50 39.31
38.22 1.53 39.75
38.64 1.55 40.18
39.13 1.53 40.66
39.60 1.52 41.12
40.10 1.50 41.60
40.52 1.50 42.02
40.93 1.53 42.45
-1.80
-2.10
-2.02
-2.22
-2.16
-2.15
-2.22
-2.30
-2.41
-2.47
-2.51
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
168 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Japanese Rice Supp pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
1.76
1.76
1.75
Yield
4.89
4.92
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
8.62 1.96 10.58
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.73
(Million Hectares) 1.71 1.69 1.66
1.64
1.62
1.60
1.57
4.95
4.99
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.02 5.06 5.10
5.14
5.18
5.21
5.25
8.67 1.43 10.11
8.66 1.05 9.70
8.64 0.71 9.35
(Million Metric Tons) 8.58 8.53 8.49 0.71 0.69 0.67 9.29 9.22 9.16
8.44 0.66 9.10
8.38 0.67 9.05
8.33 0.69 9.02
8.27 0.73 9.00
9.30 1.43 10.73
9.31 1.05 10.36
9.29 0.71 10.00
9.25 0.71 9.95
9.20 0.69 9.89
9.15 0.67 9.82
9.09 0.66 9.76
9.03 0.67 9.70
8.96 0.69 9.65
8.89 0.73 9.62
8.81 0.79 9.60
-0.15
-0.25
-0.30
-0.60
-0.60
-0.60
-0.60
-0.60
-0.60
-0.60
-0.60
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Myanmarian Rice Supply S and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
5.80
5.82
5.84
5.87
(Million Hectares) 5.90 5.93 5.96
5.98
6.03
6.06
6.07
Yield
1.69
1.70
1.71
1.72
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.73 1.74 1.76
1.77
1.79
1.80
1.82
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
9.80 0.45 10.25
9.88 0.65 10.53
9.98 0.79 10.77
10.08 0.87 10.95
(Million Metric Tons) 10.20 10.33 10.46 0.92 0.95 0.96 11.12 11.27 11.42
10.59 0.96 11.55
10.78 0.96 11.74
10.93 0.96 11.88
11.05 0.96 12.01
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
9.35 0.65 10.00
9.53 0.79 10.32
9.73 0.87 10.60
9.92 0.92 10.84
10.10 0.95 11.04
10.26 0.96 11.22
10.43 0.96 11.39
10.59 0.96 11.55
10.72 0.96 11.68
10.88 0.96 11.84
11.05 0.95 11.99
0.25
0.21
0.17
0.11
0.08
0.05
0.02
0.00
0.06
0.05
0.01
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 169
Pakistani Rice Supp ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
2.25
2.25
2.26
Yield
1.91
2.04
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4.30 1.07 5.37
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2.27
(Million Hectares) 2.27 2.28 2.29
2.29
2.30
2.30
2.30
2.07
2.09
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.12 2.15 2.18
2.21
2.24
2.26
2.29
4.60 0.92 5.51
4.66 0.92 5.58
4.74 0.93 5.67
(Million Metric Tons) 4.82 4.91 4.99 0.94 0.95 0.97 5.76 5.86 5.95
5.06 0.98 6.05
5.14 1.00 6.14
5.21 1.01 6.23
5.29 1.03 6.31
2.65 0.92 3.57
2.71 0.92 3.63
2.75 0.93 3.68
2.81 0.94 3.75
2.86 0.95 3.81
2.91 0.97 3.88
2.96 0.98 3.94
3.01 1.00 4.01
3.06 1.01 4.07
3.11 1.03 4.14
3.16 1.04 4.20
1.80
1.89
1.90
1.93
1.95
1.98
2.01
2.04
2.06
2.09
2.11
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Philippine Rice Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
3.85
3.83
3.74
3.69
(Million Hectares) 3.69 3.70 3.72
3.74
3.76
3.78
3.80
Yield
2.05
1.97
2.00
2.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.04 2.06 2.08
2.10
2.13
2.15
2.17
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
7.88 2.00 9.89
7.56 2.09 9.65
7.46 1.98 9.44
7.45 1.88 9.33
(Million Metric Tons) 7.53 7.63 7.75 1.82 1.82 1.81 9.35 9.45 9.56
7.87 1.80 9.67
8.00 1.79 9.80
8.12 1.79 9.92
8.25 1.79 10.03
8.55 2.09 10.64
8.75 1.98 10.74
8.94 1.88 10.82
9.09 1.82 10.91
9.24 1.82 11.05
9.37 1.81 11.18
9.51 1.80 11.32
9.65 1.79 11.44
9.78 1.79 11.57
9.91 1.79 11.70
10.04 1.78 11.83
-0.75
-1.09
-1.38
-1.58
-1.70
-1.74
-1.76
-1.77
-1.77
-1.78
-1.79
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
170 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Saudi Arabian Rice e Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.00 0.07 0.07
0.00 0.07 0.07
0.00 0.07 0.08
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.77 0.72 1.49
0.86 0.73 1.59
-0.78
-0.86
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.00 0.07 0.08
(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.88 0.74 1.62
0.90 0.76 1.65
0.93 0.77 1.70
0.96 0.78 1.74
1.00 0.79 1.79
1.04 0.80 1.85
1.09 0.82 1.91
1.15 0.83 1.98
1.21 0.84 2.05
-0.87
-0.90
-0.93
-0.96
-1.00
-1.04
-1.09
-1.15
-1.21
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
South Korean Rice Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
1.07
0.99
0.96
0.95
(Million Hectares) 0.95 0.95 0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
Yield
4.94
4.97
4.99
5.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.04 5.07 5.09
5.12
5.15
5.17
5.20
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
5.30 1.36 6.66
4.94 1.79 6.72
4.81 1.75 6.56
4.78 1.63 6.41
(Million Metric Tons) 4.80 4.81 4.83 1.54 1.48 1.43 6.34 6.29 6.27
4.85 1.41 6.26
4.88 1.41 6.29
4.89 1.44 6.34
4.91 1.50 6.42
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
5.00 1.79 6.79
5.10 1.75 6.85
5.08 1.63 6.71
5.05 1.54 6.59
5.06 1.48 6.54
5.06 1.43 6.50
5.07 1.41 6.47
5.05 1.41 6.46
5.05 1.44 6.50
5.04 1.50 6.54
5.02 1.60 6.62
-0.13
-0.13
-0.15
-0.18
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 171
Taiwanese Rice Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.36
0.37
0.36
Yield
3.85
3.88
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.40 0.14 1.54
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.35
(Million Hectares) 0.35 0.34 0.34
0.33
0.33
0.32
0.32
3.90
3.92
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.94 3.97 4.00
4.02
4.05
4.07
4.09
1.42 0.09 1.51
1.40 0.09 1.50
1.39 0.10 1.49
(Million Metric Tons) 1.38 1.36 1.35 0.11 0.12 0.12 1.49 1.48 1.47
1.34 0.12 1.46
1.33 0.12 1.45
1.32 0.12 1.44
1.30 0.12 1.43
1.30 0.09 1.39
1.31 0.09 1.40
1.30 0.10 1.41
1.29 0.11 1.40
1.28 0.12 1.40
1.27 0.12 1.39
1.25 0.12 1.37
1.23 0.12 1.35
1.20 0.12 1.33
1.18 0.12 1.30
1.15 0.12 1.28
0.15
0.11
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.15
05/06
Thai Rice Supply an nd Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
10.05
10.01
9.99
10.00
(Million Hectares) 10.00 10.01 10.01
10.02
10.02
10.02
10.01
1.65
1.67
1.69
1.71
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.72 1.74 1.76
1.78
1.80
1.82
1.83
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
16.60 1.66 18.26
16.71 1.97 18.69
16.86 1.97 18.84
17.05 1.98 19.03
(Million Metric Tons) 17.25 17.45 17.64 1.98 1.98 1.99 19.23 19.43 19.62
17.82 1.99 19.81
18.01 1.99 20.00
18.19 2.00 20.19
18.36 2.00 20.37
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
9.99 1.97 11.96
10.01 1.97 11.99
10.06 1.98 12.04
10.11 1.98 12.08
10.15 1.98 12.13
10.19 1.99 12.17
10.22 1.99 12.21
10.26 1.99 12.25
10.28 2.00 12.28
10.31 2.00 12.31
10.33 2.01 12.34
6.30
6.70
6.80
6.95
7.10
7.26
7.41
7.56
7.72
7.87
8.03
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
172 / World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Uruguayan Rice Sup upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
0.15
0.15
0.16
Yield
4.67
4.83
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.70 0.17 0.87
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.16
(Million Hectares) 0.17 0.17 0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
4.86
4.92
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.98 5.07 5.16
5.28
5.41
5.55
5.71
0.75 0.08 0.83
0.77 0.00 0.77
0.80 -0.09 0.72
(Million Metric Tons) 0.83 0.86 0.90 -0.17 -0.26 -0.34 0.66 0.61 0.56
0.93 -0.42 0.51
0.97 -0.51 0.46
1.01 -0.59 0.42
1.05 -0.68 0.38
0.10 0.08 0.18
0.10 0.00 0.10
0.10 -0.09 0.02
0.10 -0.17 -0.07
0.11 -0.26 -0.15
0.11 -0.34 -0.23
0.11 -0.42 -0.32
0.11 -0.51 -0.40
0.11 -0.59 -0.48
0.11 -0.68 -0.56
0.11 -0.76 -0.65
0.69
0.73
0.76
0.78
0.81
0.84
0.87
0.91
0.94
0.98
1.02
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Vietnamese Rice Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
7.57
7.45
7.39
7.37
(Million Hectares) 7.38 7.38 7.40
7.41
7.43
7.45
7.46
Yield
2.74
2.80
2.86
2.91
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.97 3.02 3.08
3.14
3.19
3.25
3.30
Production
20.70
20.87
21.13
21.48
(Million Metric Tons) 21.90 22.33 22.78
23.23
23.71
24.17
24.64
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
16.94 0.00 16.94
16.73 0.00 16.73
16.93 0.00 16.93
17.16 0.00 17.16
17.43 0.00 17.43
17.70 0.00 17.70
17.98 0.00 17.98
18.27 0.00 18.27
18.56 0.00 18.56
18.84 0.00 18.84
19.13 0.00 19.13
3.76
4.13
4.20
4.32
4.47
4.63
4.79
4.96
5.15
5.33
5.51
Net Trade
World Rice: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 173
Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
27.17
26.88
26.81
26.81
(Million Hectares) 26.85 26.84 26.84
26.82
26.81
26.78
26.75
1.88
1.90
1.92
1.94
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.95 1.97 1.99
2.01
2.03
2.04
2.06
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
51.21 7.27 58.47
51.10 6.47 57.57
51.44 5.38 56.82
51.91 4.84 56.74
(Million Metric Tons) 52.46 52.93 53.40 4.91 5.01 5.09 57.37 57.94 58.50
53.85 5.18 59.03
54.33 5.25 59.58
54.74 5.34 60.08
55.17 5.41 60.58
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
65.70 6.47 72.17
66.28 5.38 71.66
66.85 4.84 71.69
67.42 4.91 72.33
67.99 5.01 73.00
68.58 5.09 73.67
69.17 5.18 74.35
69.77 5.25 75.02
70.38 5.34 75.72
71.00 5.41 76.41
71.63 5.48 77.12
-13.70
-14.08
-14.87
-15.59
-15.63
-15.73
-15.85
-16.00
-16.14
-16.33
-16.54
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
05/06
WORLD COARSE GRAINS
176 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Coarse Grains World coarse grain area has been declining over the last four years, falling in 2000/01 nearly 20 mha below the 1996/97 level. In the long run, coarse grain area grows a meager 0.16 percent annually, with increases in corn and barley area partially offset by decreases in sorghum area. World coarse grain production increases just over 137 mmt during the baseline, with the bulk of the growth resulting from yield growth in corn production. Coarse grain consumption rises 1.35 percent over the baseline, driven primarily by economic recovery in Asian countries and a corresponding increase in livestock production. Annual average growth in coarse grain prices ranges from 1.7 percent for barley to 2.85 percent for corn. However, corn price remains 30 percent below its 1995/96 record level. In the long run, coarse grain trade increases 27.15 percent, growing 2.43 percent annually. World corn trade is expected to grow the fastest among coarse grains, expanding 2.71 percent annually over the next decade. An additional 20.59 mmt are brought to international corn markets, with more than 90 percent of the additional shipments destined for developing countries to meet their sharply increasing feed demand. Asian countries remain the fastest-growing market for corn in the next decade. Taiwan and South Korea account for approximately 7 and 11 percent, respectively, of world corn trade. Taiwan’s corn imports grow steadily at 1.7 percent annually as livestock production recovers. The second largest corn importer in Asia, South Korea, imports 9.77 mmt by 2010/11 to meet its domestic feed demand, which grows 2.68 percent annually. Japan remains the largest corn importer in Asia, absorbing 23.8 percent of the world corn exports in 2000/01. Over the last five years, Japanese imports have been relatively flat; they are stable to slightly declining over the next decade in response to lower feed demand. In recent years, China has been a significant corn exporter. China’s corn exports drop to 4.05 mmt in 2000/01, less than half of what they were in 1999/00. Rising domestic feed use continues to sap excess supplies, and China becomes a net importer by 2005/06. China is projected to import 6.92 mmt of corn in 2010/11. Apart from Asia, Latin American countries also represent an important growing market. Mexico is the largest corn importer in Latin America, with imports growing nearly 2 percent annually due to steadily increasing feed use and a gradual reduction of over-quota tariff rates under NAFTA. Eastern European countries expand corn exports because corn production grows more rapidly than consumption. Over the outlook period, Eastern European countries increase their share of corn exports from 0 to 5.6 percent. Argentine corn production is expected to increase only through rising yields. Despite a slight decline in its market share, Argentina remains a strong competitor for U.S. corn, expanding its exports from 8.5 to 10 mmt by 2010/11. The U.S. remains the largest corn exporter and captures more than 90 percent of the increase in corn imports. As a result, U.S. market share rises from 79 to 82 percent. Barley imports expand by 2.42 mmt over the baseline. More than 70 percent of this increase occurs in China and Saudi Arabia. The EU captures most of the growth in barley trade, expanding its exports to more than 13 mmt by 2010/11. The EU’s barley export share increases from 61 to 66 percent, whereas Australian and Canadian market shares decline slightly. World sorghum trade is projected to increase by almost 2 mmt over the next decade, primarily because of growth in Mexican imports, which are partially offset by a decline in Japanese imports. The majority of the increase in import demand is satisfied by an expansion of U.S. exports, from 5.08 to 6.50 mmt over the next decade.
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 177
Corn Trade Net Exporters Argentina Hungary Other Eastern Europe South Africa Ukraine United States Total Net Exports
Net Importers Canada European Union Czech Republic Poland Israel Japan Russia Other Former Soviet Union Developing Algeria Egypt Other Africa Other Middle East Brazil Mexico Other Latin America China Indonesia Malaysia South Korea Taiwan Thailand Philippines India Pakistan Vietnam Other Asia Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports
Coarse Grain Prices Corn (FOB Gulf) Sorghum (FOB Gulf) Barley (Portland)
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
8.48 0.15 -0.11 0.95 0.59 53.15
8.22 1.02 1.11 0.65 0.81 54.21
8.48 1.21 1.49 0.74 0.86 54.83
8.72 1.25 1.81 0.86 0.78 55.67
(Million Metric Tons) 8.89 9.02 9.16 1.26 1.29 1.33 1.90 1.97 2.11 0.94 1.00 1.06 0.68 0.57 0.48 58.02 60.36 62.80
9.33 1.40 2.26 1.11 0.41 64.92
9.52 1.45 2.31 1.15 0.37 67.58
9.74 1.47 2.44 1.19 0.36 69.78
9.99 1.48 2.56 1.25 0.36 72.22
67.27
69.09
70.18
71.01
71.89
73.33
76.94
79.43
82.38
84.99
87.86
1.20 2.00 0.10 0.20 0.55 16.00 0.20 0.04 47.73 1.50 4.70 2.29 5.81 0.04 6.29 9.25 -4.05 1.15 2.40 8.00 5.10 0.10 0.60 0.34 0.00 0.15 0.16 0.10 -1.00
1.44 2.10 0.13 0.21 0.53 15.97 0.32 0.10 49.01 1.53 4.58 2.58 5.78 0.30 5.81 9.29 -3.07 1.15 2.37 8.25 5.17 0.63 1.09 0.40 0.00 0.17 0.09 0.11 -1.00
1.60 2.11 0.13 0.23 0.54 15.95 0.48 0.03 49.84 1.56 4.69 2.69 5.82 0.29 5.80 9.37 -2.56 1.19 2.44 8.83 5.25 0.44 0.98 0.39 0.00 0.17 0.11 0.11 -1.00
1.76 2.27 0.12 0.26 0.55 15.86 0.51 0.00 50.39 1.59 4.82 2.80 5.84 0.33 5.80 9.46 -1.93 1.25 2.49 8.88 5.33 0.26 0.99 0.42 0.00 0.17 0.13 0.12 -1.00
1.82 2.35 0.12 0.27 0.55 15.78 0.55 -0.05 51.17 1.62 4.94 2.87 5.88 0.28 5.83 9.59 -0.20 1.31 2.55 9.01 5.43 0.28 0.96 0.46 0.00 0.19 0.17 0.13 -1.00
1.80 2.43 0.12 0.29 0.56 15.81 0.59 -0.10 52.47 1.66 5.05 2.97 5.92 0.33 6.05 9.70 0.89 1.38 2.62 9.15 5.55 0.43 0.96 0.50 0.00 0.21 0.19 0.14 -1.00
1.85 2.40 0.12 0.31 0.56 15.76 0.60 -0.17 56.13 1.70 5.19 3.05 5.96 0.30 6.32 9.81 2.43 1.45 2.69 9.28 5.67 0.59 0.94 0.54 0.00 0.24 0.22 0.14 -1.00
1.92 2.46 0.13 0.33 0.56 15.65 0.62 -0.15 58.48 1.75 5.33 3.09 6.00 0.24 6.53 9.92 3.75 1.53 2.78 9.39 5.73 0.72 0.93 0.54 0.00 0.27 0.24 0.15 -1.00
1.92 2.43 0.13 0.36 0.57 15.61 0.64 -0.13 61.36 1.80 5.48 3.15 6.05 0.33 6.83 10.04 5.11 1.61 2.88 9.50 5.81 0.97 0.96 0.57 0.00 0.32 0.27 0.16 -1.00
1.86 2.39 0.14 0.40 0.57 15.64 0.66 -0.23 64.04 1.85 5.64 3.24 6.11 0.34 7.20 10.16 6.14 1.70 2.99 9.63 5.92 1.22 0.97 0.63 0.00 0.37 0.29 0.17 -1.00
1.81 2.66 0.14 0.44 0.58 15.65 0.69 -0.26 66.54 1.90 5.82 3.34 6.15 0.35 7.64 10.27 6.92 1.79 3.11 9.77 6.05 1.48 1.00 0.63 0.00 0.43 0.31 0.18 -1.00
67.27
69.09
70.18
71.01
71.89
73.33
76.94
79.43
82.38
84.99
87.86
88.78 89.68 121.39
96.54 92.24 128.00
98.60 93.50 128.62
100.39 95.55 133.01
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 102.31 104.64 107.40 97.61 100.48 103.24 134.31 135.57 137.73
109.83 105.21 139.19
111.81 107.08 140.58
114.47 109.90 141.20
117.53 113.01 143.54
178 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Barley Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Canada European Union Russia Ukraine United States Total Net Exports
Net Importers Czech Republic Hungary Poland Other Eastern Europe Israel Japan Other Former Soviet Union Developing Algeria Other Africa Saudi Arabia Other Middle East Brazil Mexico Other Latin America China Pakistan Taiwan Other Asia Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports
Coarse Grain Prices Corn (FOB Gulf) Sorghum (FOB Gulf) Barley (Portland)
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.04 3.59 1.66 10.90 0.20 0.65 0.44
0.05 3.36 1.68 10.77 -0.39 0.72 0.37
0.07 3.47 1.65 10.89 -0.53 0.77 0.40
0.08 3.55 1.48 11.04 -0.39 0.59 0.42
(Million Metric Tons) 0.10 0.11 0.13 3.61 3.66 3.71 1.40 1.48 1.46 11.47 11.83 12.31 -0.49 -0.53 -0.58 0.39 0.19 0.02 0.45 0.48 0.53
0.14 3.77 1.39 12.73 -0.57 0.03 0.56
0.16 3.83 1.47 12.94 -0.50 0.06 0.58
0.18 3.85 1.65 13.05 -0.41 0.12 0.61
0.19 3.85 1.83 13.34 -0.43 0.20 0.63
17.76
17.38
17.56
17.65
17.84
18.12
18.45
18.85
19.25
19.71
20.18
0.13 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.40 1.60 -0.29 13.23 1.00 2.00 4.80 2.23 0.10 0.20 0.21 2.40 0.00 0.20 0.10 0.01 1.84
0.09 -0.04 0.16 0.31 0.43 1.60 -0.82 12.84 0.64 1.59 4.99 2.22 0.11 0.21 0.21 2.59 0.00 0.21 0.10 0.14 1.84
0.06 -0.06 0.25 0.28 0.43 1.62 -0.83 12.94 0.56 1.62 5.05 2.23 0.12 0.22 0.21 2.60 0.00 0.22 0.10 0.20 1.84
0.03 -0.09 0.33 0.23 0.43 1.60 -0.90 13.03 0.56 1.64 5.11 2.23 0.13 0.23 0.21 2.60 0.00 0.23 0.10 0.25 1.84
0.00 -0.12 0.41 0.19 0.43 1.61 -0.92 13.17 0.55 1.67 5.16 2.25 0.14 0.24 0.21 2.60 0.00 0.24 0.10 0.31 1.84
-0.02 -0.14 0.49 0.17 0.43 1.64 -0.90 13.35 0.56 1.71 5.23 2.27 0.15 0.24 0.21 2.63 0.00 0.26 0.10 0.36 1.84
-0.04 -0.17 0.57 0.14 0.43 1.65 -0.87 13.61 0.56 1.74 5.31 2.28 0.16 0.25 0.22 2.73 0.00 0.27 0.10 0.42 1.84
-0.05 -0.20 0.67 0.10 0.43 1.64 -0.79 13.95 0.56 1.77 5.39 2.30 0.18 0.26 0.22 2.88 0.00 0.28 0.10 0.47 1.84
-0.06 -0.22 0.77 0.06 0.43 1.64 -0.72 14.26 0.57 1.81 5.51 2.32 0.19 0.27 0.22 2.98 0.00 0.30 0.10 0.53 1.84
-0.07 -0.24 0.88 0.04 0.43 1.66 -0.66 14.58 0.57 1.86 5.63 2.34 0.20 0.28 0.23 3.06 0.00 0.31 0.10 0.59 1.84
-0.07 -0.26 1.00 0.01 0.42 1.68 -0.56 14.91 0.57 1.89 5.79 2.35 0.22 0.29 0.24 3.14 0.00 0.32 0.10 0.64 1.84
17.76
17.38
17.56
17.65
17.84
18.12
18.45
18.85
19.25
19.71
20.18
88.78 89.68 121.39
96.54 92.24 128.00
98.60 93.50 128.62
100.39 95.55 133.01
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 102.31 104.64 107.40 97.61 100.48 103.24 134.31 135.57 137.73
109.83 105.21 139.19
111.81 107.08 140.58
114.47 109.90 141.20
117.53 113.01 143.54
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 179
Sorghum Trade 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0.65 0.70 5.08
0.68 0.58 5.07
0.71 0.61 5.32
6.43
6.33
Net Importers Israel Japan Developing Mexico South Africa Nigeria India Pakistan
0.15 2.10 3.53 3.50 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports
Net Exporters Argentina Australia United States Total Net Exports
Coarse Grain Prices Corn (FOB Gulf) Sorghum (FOB Gulf) Barley (Portland)
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.71 0.66 5.38
(Million Metric Tons) 0.66 0.62 0.61 0.70 0.75 0.80 5.48 5.76 5.95
0.61 0.84 6.01
0.62 0.89 6.13
0.69 0.94 6.33
0.78 0.97 6.50
6.64
6.76
6.85
7.13
7.36
7.46
7.64
7.95
8.24
0.16 1.94 3.76 3.73 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.16 1.98 3.99 3.94 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.17 1.91 4.17 4.10 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.18 1.90 4.24 4.14 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.19 1.96 4.45 4.32 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.19 1.96 4.63 4.48 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.20 1.91 4.71 4.53 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.21 1.90 4.84 4.64 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.23 1.92 5.06 4.83 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.24 1.93 5.28 5.02 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.58 0.07
0.40 0.07
0.43 0.07
0.43 0.07
0.45 0.07
0.47 0.07
0.50 0.07
0.56 0.07
0.62 0.07
0.67 0.07
0.72 0.07
6.43
6.33
6.64
6.76
6.85
7.13
7.36
7.46
7.64
7.95
8.24
88.78 89.68 121.39
96.54 92.24 128.00
98.60 93.50 128.62
100.39 95.55 133.01
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 102.31 104.64 107.40 97.61 100.48 103.24 134.31 135.57 137.73
109.83 105.21 139.19
111.81 107.08 140.58
114.47 109.90 141.20
117.53 113.01 143.54
180 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Coarse Grain Area Harvested Million Hectares
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Barley
Corn
Sorghum
World Corn Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent
Dollars per Metric Ton
180
25
160 20
140 120
15 100 80 10 60 40
5
20 0
0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Stock-to-Use Ratio
FOB Gulf Price
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 181
Corn Net Imports by Major Regions Million Metric Tons 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
Developing Other
1998/99
2000/01
Developing Asia
2002/03 Developed
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Russia and Other FSU
Corn Net Exports by Competitors Million Metric Tons 20
15
10
5
0
-5 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Argentina
2000/01
2002/03
Eastern Europe
2004/05
South Africa
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
182 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Corn Trade and Market Share Million Metric Tons
Percent
80
100 90
70
80 60 70 50
60
40
50 40
30
30 20 20 10
10 0
0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 U.S.
Market Share
Barley Net Exports by Major Countries Million Metric Tons
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
European Union
2002/03
Canada
2004/05
Australia
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 183
Sorghum Net Imports Million Metric Tons 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01 Japan
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Mexico
Sorghum Net Exports Million Metric Tons 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99 Argentina
2000/01
2002/03
Australia
U.S.
184 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Corn Supply y and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
139.26
139.52
140.04
4.19
4.34
Production Beginning Stocks Total Supply
582.97 125.27 708.24
Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade *
Stock to Use Ratio
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
140.35
(Million Hectares) 140.57 140.78 141.06
141.36
141.62
141.91
142.10
4.40
4.46
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.52 4.58 4.64
4.70
4.76
4.83
4.88
605.21 106.57 711.78
616.36 102.44 718.80
626.04 101.98 728.02
(Million Metric Tons) 635.51 644.95 654.89 101.51 101.32 100.93 737.02 746.27 755.81
664.91 100.62 765.53
674.60 100.58 775.17
684.80 100.42 785.23
693.82 101.45 795.27
601.67 106.57 708.24
609.34 102.44 711.78
616.82 101.98 718.80
626.51 101.51 728.02
635.70 101.32 737.02
645.35 100.93 746.27
655.19 100.62 755.81
664.95 100.58 765.53
674.75 100.42 775.17
683.77 101.45 785.23
692.93 102.35 795.27
67.27
69.09
70.18
71.01
71.89
73.33
76.94
79.43
82.38
84.99
87.86
17.71
16.81
16.53
16.20
15.94
(Percent) 15.64
15.36
15.13
14.88
14.84
14.77
05/06
* Excludes intraregional trade.
World Barley Supplly and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
54.93
55.21
55.49
55.77
(Million Hectares) 55.97 56.02 56.05
56.13
56.16
56.73
56.66
2.40
2.45
2.45
2.47
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.49 2.52 2.54
2.57
2.59
2.64
2.67
Production Beginning Stocks Total Supply
131.97 25.14 157.10
135.05 23.55 158.60
136.03 23.06 159.09
137.95 22.79 160.73
(Million Metric Tons) 139.61 141.12 142.61 22.42 22.44 23.18 162.03 163.57 165.79
144.19 23.40 167.60
145.67 23.53 169.21
149.97 23.77 173.73
151.34 26.84 178.18
Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use
133.55 23.55 157.10
135.54 23.06 158.60
136.30 22.79 159.09
138.32 22.42 160.74
139.58 22.44 162.02
140.39 23.18 163.58
142.38 23.40 165.78
144.07 23.53 167.61
145.43 23.77 169.20
146.91 26.84 173.74
148.35 29.82 178.17
17.76
17.38
17.56
17.65
17.84
18.12
18.45
18.85
19.25
19.71
20.18
17.63
17.02
16.72
16.21
16.08
(Percent) 16.51
16.44
16.34
16.34
18.27
20.10
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade *
Stock to Use Ratio * Excludes intraregional trade.
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 185
World Sorghum Sup upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
40.82
40.55
40.59
40.99
(Million Hectares) 40.96 40.82 40.69
40.57
40.36
40.15
40.05
1.26
1.32
1.33
1.34
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.35 1.37 1.38
1.40
1.42
1.43
1.45
Production Beginning Stocks Total Supply
51.29 5.81 57.10
53.48 5.39 58.87
54.04 5.40 59.44
55.00 5.45 60.45
(Million Metric Tons) 55.49 55.89 56.35 5.47 5.50 5.46 60.96 61.39 61.81
56.82 5.44 62.27
57.21 5.37 62.58
57.61 5.30 62.92
58.11 5.25 63.37
Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use
51.71 5.39 57.10
53.48 5.40 58.87
53.99 5.45 59.44
54.98 5.47 60.45
55.46 5.50 60.96
55.93 5.46 61.39
56.36 5.44 61.81
56.89 5.37 62.27
57.28 5.30 62.58
57.66 5.25 62.92
58.18 5.18 63.37
6.43
6.33
6.64
6.76
6.85
7.13
7.36
7.46
7.64
7.95
8.24
10.43
10.10
10.09
9.95
9.92
(Percent) 9.76
9.66
9.45
9.25
9.11
8.91
Area Harvested
Yield
Trade *
Stock to Use Ratio * Excludes intraregional trade.
05/06
186 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Coarse Grain Supply S and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
29.43
28.89
29.17
29.29
(Million Hectares) 29.42 29.58 29.76
29.97
30.11
30.13
30.19
8.60
8.55
8.67
8.79
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 8.91 9.03 9.14
9.26
9.37
9.49
9.61
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
253.21 43.63 296.84
246.95 47.01 293.95
252.75 43.67 296.42
257.40 42.92 300.33
(Million Metric Tons) 262.12 266.98 272.12 42.48 42.03 41.55 304.60 309.01 313.67
277.43 40.96 318.40
282.29 40.52 322.82
285.98 40.21 326.19
290.08 39.51 329.59
Feed and Residual Food and Other HFCS Seed Fuel Alcohol Ending Stocks Domestic Use
146.90 20.33 13.89 0.50 15.05 47.01 243.69
144.70 20.76 14.31 0.51 15.67 43.67 239.62
146.09 21.20 14.78 0.51 15.96 42.92 241.46
148.70 21.50 15.22 0.51 16.11 42.48 244.53
150.13 21.85 15.63 0.52 16.29 42.03 246.45
151.63 22.25 16.04 0.52 16.54 41.55 248.52
153.42 22.64 16.44 0.52 16.75 40.96 250.74
155.37 23.04 16.85 0.52 17.05 40.52 253.35
156.24 23.44 17.25 0.52 17.44 40.21 255.11
156.96 23.84 17.65 0.52 17.79 39.51 256.28
157.66 24.24 18.04 0.53 18.10 38.67 257.25
53.15
54.34
54.96
55.80
58.15
60.49
62.93
65.04
67.71
69.91
72.34
Sorghum Area Harvested
3.13
3.36
3.36
3.31
(Million Hectares) 3.29 3.28 3.28
3.27
3.25
3.23
3.22
Yield
3.82
4.27
4.29
4.32
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.34 4.37 4.39
4.42
4.44
4.47
4.49
11.94 1.66 13.60
14.32 1.14 15.46
14.41 1.52 15.92
14.30 1.56 15.86
(Million Metric Tons) 14.31 14.34 14.42 1.48 1.43 1.37 15.79 15.77 15.78
14.46 1.31 15.77
14.45 1.27 15.72
14.43 1.24 15.67
14.45 1.17 15.63
6.09 1.29 1.14 8.52
7.56 1.31 1.52 10.39
7.74 1.31 1.56 10.61
7.70 1.31 1.48 10.48
7.56 1.31 1.43 10.30
7.34 1.30 1.37 10.01
7.22 1.30 1.31 9.83
7.19 1.30 1.27 9.77
7.05 1.31 1.24 9.59
6.87 1.30 1.17 9.34
6.72 1.31 1.10 9.13
5.08
5.07
5.32
5.38
5.48
5.76
5.95
6.01
6.13
6.33
6.50
Corn Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Feed and Residual Food, Seed and Industrial Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 187
U.S. Coarse Grain Supply S and Utilization (continued) 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Barley Area Harvested
2.10
2.16
2.16
Yield Actual
3.29
3.35
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
6.92 2.43 9.35
Feed and Residual Food Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2.16
(Million Hectares) 2.14 2.12 2.12
2.11
2.10
2.09
2.09
3.38
3.41
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.44 3.47 3.50
3.53
3.56
3.59
3.62
7.24 2.31 9.55
7.30 2.31 9.61
7.35 2.28 9.63
(Million Metric Tons) 7.36 7.37 7.41 2.25 2.23 2.21 9.61 9.60 9.62
7.45 2.19 9.64
7.48 2.17 9.65
7.52 2.15 9.67
7.57 2.12 9.69
2.85 3.75 2.31 8.91
3.11 3.77 2.31 9.18
3.14 3.79 2.28 9.21
3.16 3.81 2.25 9.22
3.11 3.82 2.23 9.16
3.07 3.84 2.21 9.12
3.04 3.86 2.19 9.09
3.02 3.88 2.17 9.07
3.01 3.91 2.15 9.06
3.01 3.93 2.12 9.06
3.02 3.95 2.08 9.06
0.44
0.37
0.40
0.42
0.45
0.48
0.53
0.56
0.58
0.61
0.63
Oats Area Harvested
0.94
0.96
0.87
0.84
(Million Hectares) 0.82 0.81 0.79
0.77
0.76
0.75
0.73
Yield Actual
2.30
2.17
2.18
2.19
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.20 2.21 2.22
2.22
2.23
2.24
2.25
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.17 1.10 3.26
2.07 1.16 3.23
1.90 1.13 3.03
1.83 1.07 2.89
(Million Metric Tons) 1.81 1.78 1.75 1.01 0.98 0.96 2.82 2.76 2.71
1.72 0.93 2.65
1.69 0.91 2.61
1.67 0.89 2.56
1.63 0.87 2.51
Feed and Residual Food Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.54 0.99 1.16 4.69
2.56 0.99 1.13 4.68
2.46 0.99 1.07 4.51
2.38 1.00 1.01 4.39
2.33 1.01 0.98 4.32
2.30 1.01 0.96 4.27
2.27 1.02 0.93 4.22
2.23 1.03 0.91 4.17
2.20 1.03 0.89 4.13
2.18 1.04 0.87 4.09
2.14 1.05 0.85 4.04
-1.42
-1.45
-1.48
-1.50
-1.50
-1.51
-1.51
-1.52
-1.52
-1.53
-1.53
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
188 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Argentine Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
2.83
2.80
2.83
5.30
5.22
5.31
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2.85
(Million Hectares) 2.85 2.85 2.85
2.85
2.85
2.84
2.84
5.40
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.50 5.60 5.69
5.79
5.89
6.00
6.10
(Million Metric Tons) 15.69 15.96 16.22 0.42 0.42 0.42 16.11 16.38 16.65
16.51 0.43 16.93
16.78 0.43 17.21
17.05 0.43 17.49
17.35 0.44 17.79
15.00 0.41 15.41
14.62 0.43 15.05
15.02 0.40 15.43
15.38 0.41 15.79
6.50 0.43 6.93
6.43 0.40 6.83
6.53 0.41 6.94
6.66 0.42 7.07
6.80 0.42 7.22
6.94 0.42 7.36
7.06 0.43 7.49
7.17 0.43 7.60
7.26 0.43 7.69
7.31 0.44 7.75
7.35 0.44 7.80
8.48
8.22
8.48
8.72
8.89
9.02
9.16
9.33
9.52
9.74
9.99
Sorghum Area Harvested
0.75
0.78
0.78
0.78
(Million Hectares) 0.78 0.78 0.79
0.79
0.80
0.80
0.81
Yield
4.40
4.45
4.50
4.55
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.60 4.65 4.70
4.75
4.80
4.85
4.90
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3.30 0.73 4.03
3.46 0.68 4.14
3.50 0.72 4.22
3.56 0.72 4.28
(Million Metric Tons) 3.59 3.63 3.70 0.73 0.73 0.73 4.32 4.36 4.43
3.77 0.73 4.50
3.82 0.73 4.55
3.88 0.73 4.61
3.96 0.73 4.69
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.70 0.68 3.38
2.74 0.72 3.46
2.79 0.72 3.51
2.84 0.73 3.57
2.93 0.73 3.65
3.01 0.73 3.74
3.09 0.73 3.82
3.16 0.73 3.89
3.20 0.73 3.93
3.20 0.73 3.93
3.18 0.73 3.91
0.65
0.68
0.71
0.71
0.66
0.62
0.61
0.61
0.62
0.69
0.78
Barley Area Harvested
0.20
0.21
0.21
0.22
(Million Hectares) 0.22 0.23 0.23
0.24
0.24
0.25
0.25
Yield
2.25
2.29
2.32
2.36
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.40 2.44 2.47
2.51
2.55
2.60
2.64
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.45 0.05 0.50
0.47 0.05 0.52
0.49 0.05 0.54
0.51 0.05 0.56
(Million Metric Tons) 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.58 0.60 0.62
0.59 0.06 0.65
0.61 0.06 0.67
0.64 0.06 0.70
0.66 0.07 0.73
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.41 0.05 0.46
0.42 0.05 0.47
0.42 0.05 0.47
0.43 0.05 0.48
0.43 0.05 0.48
0.44 0.06 0.49
0.44 0.06 0.50
0.45 0.06 0.51
0.45 0.06 0.51
0.46 0.07 0.52
0.46 0.07 0.53
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.19
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 189
Australian Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Sorghum Area Harvested
0.68
0.69
0.70
Yield
3.11
2.45
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.10 0.10 2.20
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.71
(Million Hectares) 0.72 0.73 0.73
0.74
0.75
0.76
0.76
2.48
2.51
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.54 2.57 2.60
2.63
2.66
2.68
2.71
1.69 0.10 1.79
1.74 0.09 1.82
1.78 0.09 1.87
(Million Metric Tons) 1.82 1.86 1.91 0.09 0.09 0.09 1.91 1.95 2.00
1.95 0.09 2.05
2.00 0.09 2.09
2.04 0.10 2.14
2.07 0.10 2.17
1.40 0.10 1.50
1.13 0.09 1.21
1.13 0.09 1.21
1.12 0.09 1.21
1.12 0.09 1.21
1.11 0.09 1.20
1.11 0.09 1.20
1.11 0.09 1.20
1.11 0.10 1.20
1.10 0.10 1.20
1.10 0.10 1.20
0.70
0.58
0.61
0.66
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.84
0.89
0.94
0.97
Barley Area Harvested
3.00
2.96
2.95
2.95
(Million Hectares) 2.97 2.98 3.00
3.01
3.03
3.04
3.02
Yield
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.87
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.89 1.91 1.93
1.96
1.98
2.00
2.03
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
5.40 0.36 5.76
5.38 0.36 5.74
5.44 0.53 5.97
5.51 0.57 6.08
(Million Metric Tons) 5.60 5.70 5.79 0.58 0.59 0.59 6.18 6.28 6.38
5.89 0.60 6.49
5.99 0.60 6.59
6.10 0.61 6.70
6.13 0.61 6.74
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.82 0.36 2.17
1.86 0.53 2.39
1.92 0.57 2.49
1.95 0.58 2.53
1.99 0.59 2.58
2.03 0.59 2.63
2.07 0.60 2.67
2.12 0.60 2.72
2.16 0.61 2.77
2.24 0.61 2.85
2.28 0.62 2.89
3.59
3.36
3.47
3.55
3.61
3.66
3.71
3.77
3.83
3.85
3.85
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
190 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Coarse G Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
1.08
1.08
1.09
Yield
6.33
7.30
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
6.80 0.95 7.75
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.09
(Million Hectares) 1.09 1.09 1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
7.37
7.44
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 7.51 7.58 7.65
7.72
7.79
7.86
7.93
7.89 0.35 8.24
8.01 0.29 8.29
8.11 0.27 8.38
(Million Metric Tons) 8.21 8.30 8.38 0.28 0.30 0.33 8.49 8.60 8.70
8.45 0.36 8.81
8.53 0.39 8.91
8.61 0.42 9.02
8.68 0.45 9.13
8.60 0.35 8.95
9.40 0.29 9.68
9.62 0.27 9.89
9.87 0.28 10.14
10.01 0.30 10.31
10.08 0.33 10.40
10.19 0.36 10.55
10.34 0.39 10.72
10.42 0.42 10.84
10.43 0.45 10.88
10.46 0.49 10.94
-1.20
-1.44
-1.60
-1.76
-1.82
-1.80
-1.85
-1.92
-1.92
-1.86
-1.81
Barley Area Harvested
4.50
4.52
4.52
4.52
(Million Hectares) 4.53 4.55 4.56
4.57
4.59
4.60
4.62
Yield
2.89
3.10
3.13
3.16
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.19 3.22 3.26
3.29
3.32
3.35
3.38
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
13.00 3.07 16.07
13.98 2.61 16.59
14.13 2.70 16.83
14.30 2.72 17.02
(Million Metric Tons) 14.47 14.65 14.84 2.73 2.74 2.76 17.21 17.40 17.59
15.03 2.77 17.79
15.23 2.78 18.00
15.42 2.79 18.21
15.63 2.80 18.43
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
11.80 2.61 14.41
12.21 2.70 14.91
12.45 2.72 15.17
12.81 2.73 15.55
13.06 2.74 15.81
13.16 2.76 15.92
13.37 2.77 16.14
13.63 2.78 16.41
13.75 2.79 16.54
13.76 2.80 16.56
13.78 2.81 16.59
1.66
1.68
1.65
1.48
1.40
1.48
1.46
1.39
1.47
1.65
1.83
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 191
Chinese Coarse Gra ain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
24.00
24.68
24.64
24.61
(Million Hectares) 24.56 24.51 24.47
24.43
24.39
24.36
24.32
4.38
5.00
5.07
5.13
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.19 5.25 5.32
5.37
5.43
5.49
5.55
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
105.20 52.91 158.11
123.39 34.06 157.45
124.82 33.28 158.10
126.20 33.21 159.41
(Million Metric Tons) 127.50 128.79 130.07 33.04 33.09 32.78 160.54 161.89 162.85
131.32 32.69 164.01
132.54 32.73 165.27
133.74 32.86 166.60
134.97 33.03 168.00
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
93.00 27.00 34.06 154.06
93.89 27.22 33.28 154.39
94.65 27.67 33.21 155.53
96.34 28.10 33.04 157.48
98.56 28.69 33.09 160.35
100.80 29.20 32.78 162.77
102.98 29.61 32.69 165.28
105.17 29.87 32.73 167.76
107.30 30.22 32.86 170.38
109.26 30.46 33.03 172.75
111.15 30.56 33.20 174.91
4.05
3.07
2.56
1.93
0.20
-0.89
-2.43
-3.75
-5.11
-6.14
-6.92
Barley Area Harvested
1.00
1.04
1.02
1.01
(Million Hectares) 1.00 0.99 1.00
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.04
Yield
3.00
3.05
3.09
3.14
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.18 3.23 3.28
3.33
3.38
3.43
3.48
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3.00 0.45 3.45
3.17 0.25 3.43
3.15 0.26 3.42
3.16 0.27 3.43
(Million Metric Tons) 3.18 3.22 3.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 3.46 3.51 3.57
3.33 0.31 3.65
3.41 0.32 3.74
3.51 0.33 3.84
3.63 0.34 3.97
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.70 4.90 0.25 5.85
0.69 5.07 0.26 6.02
0.67 5.08 0.27 6.02
0.65 5.10 0.28 6.03
0.64 5.13 0.29 6.06
0.63 5.20 0.30 6.14
0.63 5.36 0.31 6.30
0.62 5.58 0.32 6.52
0.60 5.78 0.33 6.72
0.59 5.96 0.34 6.90
0.58 6.17 0.35 7.10
-2.40
-2.59
-2.60
-2.60
-2.60
-2.63
-2.73
-2.88
-2.98
-3.06
-3.14
Corn Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
192 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Eastern European Coarse C Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
6.39
6.73
6.80
Yield
2.61
4.01
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
16.66 7.21 23.87
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
6.81
(Million Hectares) 6.81 6.83 6.86
6.90
6.93
6.96
6.99
4.06
4.10
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.15 4.19 4.24
4.28
4.33
4.37
4.42
27.04 2.29 29.32
27.62 2.98 30.60
27.95 3.41 31.37
(Million Metric Tons) 28.25 28.64 29.08 3.46 3.50 3.55 31.71 32.15 32.63
29.54 3.59 33.12
29.98 3.63 33.62
30.42 3.68 34.10
30.90 3.73 34.62
17.05 4.79 2.29 24.12
19.72 4.78 2.98 27.48
20.02 4.78 3.41 28.21
20.40 4.78 3.46 28.64
20.60 4.79 3.50 28.90
20.91 4.80 3.55 29.25
21.18 4.80 3.59 29.57
21.43 4.81 3.63 29.87
21.81 4.81 3.68 30.30
22.13 4.82 3.73 30.67
22.52 4.82 3.77 31.12
-0.25
1.84
2.39
2.73
2.82
2.90
3.06
3.25
3.31
3.43
3.51
Barley Area Harvested
2.96
2.94
2.95
2.95
(Million Hectares) 2.97 2.98 2.98
2.99
3.00
3.01
3.01
Yield
2.65
2.83
2.87
2.90
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.93 2.96 2.99
3.02
3.05
3.08
3.12
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
7.86 0.83 8.68
8.33 0.68 9.00
8.45 0.70 9.15
8.56 0.71 9.26
(Million Metric Tons) 8.69 8.80 8.92 0.72 0.73 0.75 9.41 9.54 9.66
9.03 0.76 9.79
9.15 0.77 9.92
9.27 0.78 10.06
9.39 0.80 10.19
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
5.85 2.83 0.68 9.36
5.99 2.84 0.70 9.52
6.10 2.86 0.71 9.67
6.18 2.86 0.72 9.76
6.28 2.87 0.73 9.89
6.39 2.88 0.75 10.03
6.51 2.89 0.76 10.16
6.65 2.90 0.77 10.32
6.79 2.90 0.78 10.47
6.97 2.90 0.80 10.67
7.17 2.89 0.81 10.87
0.78
1.41
2.37
3.45
4.53
5.63
6.76
7.91
9.08
10.30
11.53
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 193
European Union Co oarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
4.17
4.09
4.09
Yield
8.89
8.76
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
37.06 4.00 41.06
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4.08
(Million Hectares) 4.09 4.07 4.07
4.05
4.06
4.24
4.23
8.85
8.95
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 9.05 9.15 9.24
9.34
9.44
9.53
9.63
35.84 4.80 40.64
36.23 4.04 40.27
36.56 3.69 40.25
(Million Metric Tons) 36.98 37.23 37.63 3.49 3.37 3.44 40.47 40.60 41.07
37.87 3.48 41.34
38.29 3.49 41.78
40.44 3.16 43.59
40.76 4.36 45.12
29.10 9.16 4.80 43.06
29.33 9.36 4.04 42.73
29.15 9.54 3.69 42.37
29.34 9.68 3.49 42.52
29.62 9.85 3.37 42.83
29.60 9.99 3.44 43.03
29.82 10.17 3.48 43.47
29.98 10.33 3.49 43.81
30.55 10.51 3.16 44.21
30.94 10.68 4.36 45.98
31.36 10.87 5.55 47.78
-2.00
-2.10
-2.11
-2.27
-2.35
-2.43
-2.40
-2.46
-2.43
-2.39
-2.66
10.57
10.63
10.56
10.58
(Million Hectares) 10.55 10.55 10.53
10.51
10.49
11.00
10.97
4.88
4.85
4.85
4.90
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.95 5.00 5.04
5.09
5.14
5.19
5.24
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
51.59 10.10 61.69
51.58 9.60 61.18
51.23 9.03 60.26
51.84 8.35 60.18
(Million Metric Tons) 52.21 52.68 53.09 8.19 8.00 8.12 60.40 60.68 61.22
53.53 8.16 61.68
53.92 8.18 62.10
57.08 8.37 65.45
57.49 11.36 68.85
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
30.40 10.79 9.60 50.79
30.54 10.83 9.03 50.41
30.13 10.89 8.35 49.37
30.03 10.93 8.19 49.15
29.97 10.97 8.00 48.93
29.72 11.01 8.12 48.85
29.69 11.06 8.16 48.91
29.67 11.10 8.18 48.95
29.66 11.13 8.37 49.16
29.85 11.19 11.36 52.40
29.97 11.24 14.30 55.51
10.90
10.77
10.89
11.04
11.47
11.83
12.31
12.73
12.94
13.05
13.34
Net Trade
Barley Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
194 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
South African Coars rse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
3.40
3.48
3.55
Yield
2.50
2.56
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
3.58
(Million Hectares) 3.59 3.60 3.61
3.61
3.61
3.61
3.61
2.57
2.60
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.63 2.67 2.70
2.73
2.77
2.80
2.84
8.50 2.23 10.73
8.92 1.48 10.39
9.10 1.47 10.57
9.31 1.48 10.79
(Million Metric Tons) 9.47 9.61 9.74 1.51 1.52 1.54 10.97 11.13 11.28
9.87 1.54 11.41
10.00 1.55 11.55
10.12 1.57 11.69
10.25 1.57 11.82
8.30 1.48 9.78
8.27 1.47 9.74
8.35 1.48 9.83
8.43 1.51 9.93
8.51 1.52 10.03
8.59 1.54 10.13
8.67 1.54 10.21
8.75 1.55 10.30
8.84 1.57 10.41
8.92 1.57 10.49
8.99 1.58 10.57
0.95
0.65
0.74
0.86
0.94
1.00
1.06
1.11
1.15
1.19
1.25
Sorghum Area Harvested
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.14
(Million Hectares) 0.14 0.14 0.14
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.13
Yield
1.92
1.97
2.01
2.04
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.08 2.12 2.16
2.20
2.24
2.27
2.31
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.25 0.00 0.25
0.28 0.00 0.28
0.29 0.00 0.29
0.29 0.00 0.29
(Million Metric Tons) 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.30 0.30
0.30 0.00 0.30
0.30 0.00 0.30
0.30 0.00 0.30
0.30 0.00 0.30
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.28 0.00 0.28
0.31 0.00 0.31
0.34 0.00 0.34
0.37 0.00 0.37
0.39 0.00 0.39
0.42 0.00 0.42
0.45 0.00 0.45
0.47 0.00 0.47
0.50 0.00 0.50
0.53 0.00 0.53
0.56 0.00 0.56
-0.03
-0.03
-0.05
-0.07
-0.10
-0.12
-0.15
-0.17
-0.20
-0.23
-0.25
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 195
Ukrainian Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
1.20
1.17
1.20
2.92
2.70
2.72
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.21
(Million Hectares) 1.20 1.19 1.18
1.17
1.17
1.16
1.15
2.74
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.77 2.79 2.81
2.83
2.85
2.88
2.90
3.32 1.22 4.54
3.33 1.27 4.60
3.33 1.32 4.65
3.35 1.37 4.71
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3.50 0.21 3.71
3.15 0.92 4.06
3.27 0.97 4.24
3.32 1.02 4.33
(Million Metric Tons) 3.32 3.32 3.31 1.07 1.12 1.17 4.39 4.43 4.48
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.70 0.50 0.92 3.12
1.78 0.51 0.97 3.25
1.84 0.53 1.02 3.38
1.95 0.54 1.07 3.56
2.06 0.54 1.12 3.71
2.16 0.54 1.17 3.86
2.25 0.54 1.22 4.00
2.33 0.54 1.27 4.13
2.37 0.54 1.32 4.23
2.38 0.54 1.37 4.29
2.39 0.54 1.42 4.35
0.59
0.81
0.86
0.78
0.68
0.57
0.48
0.41
0.37
0.36
0.36
4.00
3.98
4.01
4.00
(Million Hectares) 4.02 4.02 4.03
4.05
4.06
4.09
4.10
1.73
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.75 1.77 1.79
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.86
7.31 1.05 8.36
7.41 1.00 8.41
7.52 0.90 8.42
7.63 0.80 8.43
Net Trade Barley Area Harvested Yield
1.63
1.70
1.72
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
6.50 0.90 7.40
6.77 0.75 7.52
6.89 0.80 7.69
6.94 0.85 7.79
(Million Metric Tons) 7.04 7.11 7.20 0.90 0.95 1.00 7.94 8.06 8.20
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4.20 1.80 0.75 6.75
4.19 1.81 0.80 6.81
4.25 1.82 0.85 6.92
4.47 1.82 0.90 7.20
4.77 1.83 0.95 7.55
5.04 1.83 1.00 7.87
5.29 1.84 1.05 8.18
5.49 1.84 1.00 8.33
5.60 1.85 0.90 8.35
5.65 1.85 0.80 8.30
5.67 1.86 0.70 8.23
0.65
0.72
0.77
0.59
0.39
0.19
0.02
0.03
0.06
0.12
0.20
Rye Area Harvested
0.74
0.72
0.72
0.73
(Million Hectares) 0.73 0.73 0.73
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.74
Yield
1.86
1.89
1.93
1.97
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.01 2.05 2.08
2.12
2.16
2.20
2.24
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.38 0.17 1.54
1.37 0.17 1.53
1.39 0.17 1.56
1.43 0.17 1.60
(Million Metric Tons) 1.46 1.49 1.52 0.17 0.18 0.18 1.63 1.66 1.70
1.55 0.18 1.73
1.58 0.18 1.76
1.61 0.18 1.80
1.65 0.19 1.83
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.07 1.20 0.17 1.43
0.08 1.19 0.17 1.44
0.08 1.18 0.17 1.43
0.08 1.17 0.17 1.43
0.09 1.16 0.18 1.43
0.09 1.15 0.18 1.43
0.10 1.15 0.18 1.42
0.10 1.14 0.18 1.42
0.10 1.13 0.18 1.42
0.10 1.13 0.19 1.42
0.10 1.12 0.19 1.41
0.11
0.10
0.12
0.17
0.20
0.24
0.27
0.31
0.34
0.38
0.42
Net Trade
Net Trade
196 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Israeli Coarse Grain n Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.45 0.10 0.08 0.63
0.43 0.10 0.08 0.61
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.00 0.08 0.08
(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.00 0.08 0.08
0.44 0.10 0.08 0.61
0.45 0.10 0.08 0.62
0.45 0.10 0.08 0.63
0.46 0.10 0.08 0.63
0.46 0.10 0.08 0.64
0.46 0.10 0.08 0.64
0.47 0.10 0.08 0.64
0.47 0.10 0.08 0.65
0.48 0.10 0.08 0.65
-0.55
-0.53
-0.54
-0.55
-0.55
-0.56
-0.56
-0.56
-0.57
-0.57
-0.58
Sorghum Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
0.00 0.01 0.01
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.15 0.00 0.01 0.16
0.16 0.00 0.01 0.17
0.17 0.00 0.01 0.18
0.17 0.00 0.01 0.18
0.18 0.00 0.01 0.19
0.19 0.00 0.01 0.19
0.19 0.00 0.01 0.20
0.20 0.00 0.01 0.21
0.21 0.00 0.01 0.22
0.23 0.00 0.01 0.23
0.24 0.00 0.01 0.25
-0.15
-0.16
-0.16
-0.17
-0.18
-0.19
-0.19
-0.20
-0.21
-0.23
-0.24
Barley Area Harvested
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
(Million Hectares) 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Yield
0.60
0.61
0.62
0.63
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.64 0.65 0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.70
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.01 0.07 0.08
0.01 0.07 0.07
0.01 0.07 0.07
0.01 0.07 0.07
(Million Metric Tons) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07
0.01 0.07 0.07
0.01 0.07 0.07
0.01 0.07 0.07
0.01 0.07 0.07
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.41 0.00 0.07 0.48
0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50
0.44 0.00 0.07 0.51
0.44 0.00 0.07 0.50
0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50
0.44 0.00 0.07 0.50
0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50
0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50
0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50
0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50
0.43 0.00 0.07 0.50
-0.40
-0.43
-0.43
-0.43
-0.43
-0.43
-0.43
-0.43
-0.43
-0.43
-0.42
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 197
Japanese Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.00 1.16 1.16
0.00 1.11 1.11
0.00 1.08 1.08
0.00 1.08 1.08
(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08
0.00 1.08 1.08
0.00 1.08 1.08
0.00 1.08 1.08
0.00 1.08 1.08
16.05 1.11 17.16
15.99 1.08 17.08
15.96 1.08 17.03
15.86 1.08 16.93
15.78 1.08 16.86
15.81 1.08 16.89
15.76 1.08 16.84
15.65 1.08 16.73
15.61 1.08 16.69
15.64 1.08 16.72
15.65 1.08 16.73
-16.00
-15.97
-15.95
-15.86
-15.78
-15.81
-15.76
-15.65
-15.61
-15.64
-15.65
Sorghum Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
0.00 0.35 0.35
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.10 0.35 2.45
1.94 0.35 2.29
1.98 0.35 2.32
1.91 0.35 2.26
1.90 0.35 2.25
1.96 0.35 2.31
1.96 0.35 2.31
1.91 0.35 2.26
1.90 0.35 2.25
1.92 0.35 2.27
1.93 0.35 2.28
-2.10
-1.94
-1.98
-1.91
-1.90
-1.96
-1.96
-1.91
-1.90
-1.92
-1.93
Barley Area Harvested
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
(Million Hectares) 0.06 0.06 0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
Yield
2.81
2.84
2.87
2.91
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.94 2.98 3.01
3.04
3.08
3.11
3.14
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.16 0.68 0.84
0.17 0.60 0.78
0.18 0.63 0.81
0.19 0.64 0.83
(Million Metric Tons) 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.84 0.84 0.85
0.18 0.67 0.85
0.18 0.67 0.85
0.17 0.67 0.84
0.16 0.68 0.84
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.84 0.60 2.44
1.75 0.63 2.38
1.78 0.64 2.43
1.78 0.65 2.43
1.79 0.65 2.44
1.82 0.66 2.48
1.83 0.67 2.50
1.82 0.67 2.49
1.82 0.67 2.49
1.83 0.68 2.51
1.84 0.68 2.52
-1.60
-1.60
-1.62
-1.60
-1.61
-1.64
-1.65
-1.64
-1.64
-1.66
-1.68
Corn Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
198 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Russian Coarse Gra ain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0.90
0.92
0.88
2.22
1.95
1.96
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.90
(Million Hectares) 0.91 0.91 0.90
0.90
0.89
0.88
0.87
1.98
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.00 2.02 2.04
2.05
2.07
2.09
2.11
1.84 0.24 2.08
1.84 0.24 2.08
1.84 0.25 2.09
1.83 0.25 2.09
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.00 0.10 2.10
1.79 0.20 1.99
1.73 0.21 1.94
1.79 0.21 2.00
(Million Metric Tons) 1.82 1.83 1.84 0.22 0.22 0.23 2.04 2.05 2.07
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.40 0.70 0.20 2.30
1.48 0.63 0.21 2.32
1.60 0.61 0.21 2.42
1.66 0.63 0.22 2.51
1.73 0.64 0.22 2.59
1.78 0.64 0.23 2.65
1.79 0.64 0.24 2.66
1.81 0.64 0.24 2.70
1.83 0.64 0.25 2.72
1.85 0.64 0.25 2.74
1.88 0.64 0.26 2.78
-0.20
-0.32
-0.48
-0.51
-0.55
-0.59
-0.60
-0.62
-0.64
-0.66
-0.69
9.30
8.72
8.70
8.78
(Million Hectares) 8.88 8.92 8.97
9.02
9.06
9.10
9.10
1.37
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.39 1.40 1.41
1.42
1.43
1.45
1.46
12.83 1.12 13.95
12.99 1.14 14.13
13.15 1.16 14.31
13.27 1.18 14.45
Net Trade Barley Area Harvested Yield
1.40
1.35
1.36
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
13.00 0.32 13.32
11.77 1.32 13.09
11.85 1.20 13.05
12.07 1.18 13.25
(Million Metric Tons) 12.31 12.47 12.64 1.06 1.08 1.10 13.37 13.55 13.74
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
9.70 2.26 1.32 13.28
10.03 2.25 1.20 13.48
10.15 2.25 1.18 13.58
10.34 2.24 1.06 13.64
10.54 2.24 1.08 13.86
10.75 2.24 1.10 14.08
10.97 2.23 1.12 14.32
11.14 2.23 1.14 14.51
11.24 2.23 1.16 14.63
11.32 2.23 1.18 14.73
11.42 2.23 1.23 14.88
0.20
-0.39
-0.53
-0.39
-0.49
-0.53
-0.58
-0.57
-0.50
-0.41
-0.43
Rye Area Harvested
4.13
4.09
4.08
4.08
(Million Hectares) 4.07 4.06 4.06
4.06
4.06
4.07
4.08
Yield
1.40
1.41
1.41
1.42
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.42 1.43 1.43
1.43
1.44
1.44
1.45
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
5.80 0.35 6.14
5.75 0.35 6.10
5.76 0.35 6.11
5.78 0.35 6.13
(Million Metric Tons) 5.78 5.79 5.81 0.35 0.35 0.35 6.12 6.13 6.15
5.83 0.35 6.17
5.84 0.35 6.19
5.87 0.35 6.22
5.90 0.35 6.25
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.60 5.03 0.35 5.98
0.62 4.96 0.35 5.92
0.61 4.88 0.35 5.84
0.63 4.87 0.35 5.85
0.64 4.85 0.35 5.84
0.64 4.84 0.35 5.83
0.65 4.82 0.35 5.82
0.66 4.81 0.35 5.81
0.65 4.79 0.35 5.80
0.65 4.78 0.35 5.78
0.64 4.77 0.35 5.77
0.16
0.18
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.36
0.39
0.44
0.49
Net Trade
Net Trade
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 199
Other Former Sovie et Union Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0.81
0.80
0.81
2.12
2.13
2.15
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.81
(Million Hectares) 0.81 0.80 0.80
0.80
0.79
0.79
0.79
2.17
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.18 2.20 2.22
2.24
2.25
2.27
2.29
1.78 0.45 2.24
1.79 0.47 2.26
1.79 0.49 2.29
1.80 0.51 2.31
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.71 0.45 2.15
1.71 0.33 2.05
1.73 0.35 2.08
1.75 0.37 2.13
(Million Metric Tons) 1.76 1.77 1.77 0.39 0.41 0.43 2.16 2.18 2.21
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.48 0.35 0.33 2.16
1.44 0.36 0.35 2.15
1.38 0.36 0.37 2.11
1.37 0.36 0.39 2.13
1.33 0.37 0.41 2.11
1.28 0.37 0.43 2.08
1.22 0.37 0.45 2.04
1.24 0.37 0.47 2.08
1.27 0.37 0.49 2.13
1.17 0.37 0.51 2.06
1.15 0.37 0.53 2.05
-0.04
-0.10
-0.03
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.17
0.15
0.13
0.23
0.26
3.93
3.91
3.96
4.06
(Million Hectares) 4.06 4.00 3.93
3.88
3.81
3.74
3.64
1.55
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.57 1.58 1.60
1.61
1.63
1.64
1.66
6.25 1.35 7.60
6.19 1.36 7.55
6.13 1.37 7.50
6.03 1.37 7.39
Net Trade Barley Area Harvested Yield
1.51
1.52
1.54
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
5.92 1.18 7.10
5.95 1.33 7.28
6.08 1.29 7.37
6.30 1.31 7.60
(Million Metric Tons) 6.35 6.32 6.28 1.34 1.35 1.35 7.70 7.68 7.63
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4.31 1.16 1.33 6.81
4.02 1.15 1.29 6.46
4.08 1.16 1.31 6.54
4.20 1.16 1.34 6.70
4.25 1.17 1.35 6.77
4.24 1.18 1.35 6.77
4.23 1.18 1.35 6.76
4.26 1.19 1.36 6.81
4.27 1.20 1.37 6.84
4.26 1.21 1.37 6.84
4.25 1.22 1.37 6.83
0.29
0.82
0.83
0.90
0.92
0.90
0.87
0.79
0.72
0.66
0.56
Rye Area Harvested
1.23
1.22
1.22
1.22
(Million Hectares) 1.22 1.22 1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.22
Yield
1.83
1.85
1.88
1.90
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.93 1.95 1.98
2.00
2.03
2.05
2.08
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.25 0.35 2.60
2.26 0.35 2.62
2.29 0.36 2.65
2.32 0.36 2.68
(Million Metric Tons) 2.35 2.37 2.40 0.36 0.36 0.37 2.71 2.74 2.77
2.43 0.37 2.80
2.46 0.37 2.84
2.50 0.38 2.87
2.53 0.38 2.91
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.09 1.38 0.35 2.83
1.10 1.39 0.36 2.85
1.11 1.40 0.36 2.86
1.13 1.40 0.36 2.90
1.14 1.41 0.36 2.92
1.15 1.42 0.37 2.94
1.16 1.43 0.37 2.96
1.18 1.44 0.37 2.99
1.19 1.45 0.38 3.01
1.19 1.46 0.38 3.03
1.20 1.47 0.38 3.06
-0.23
-0.23
-0.22
-0.21
-0.21
-0.20
-0.19
-0.19
-0.18
-0.16
-0.15
Net Trade
Net Trade
200 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Algerian Coarse Gra rain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
0.00
0.00
0.00
Yield
1.00
2.02
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.00 0.05 0.05
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.00
(Million Hectares) 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.04
2.06
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.08 2.10 2.12
2.14
2.17
2.19
2.21
0.00 0.05 0.05
0.00 0.05 0.05
0.00 0.05 0.05
(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.00 0.05 0.05
0.00 0.05 0.05
0.00 0.05 0.05
0.00 0.05 0.05
1.50 0.05 1.55
1.53 0.05 1.58
1.56 0.05 1.61
1.59 0.05 1.64
1.62 0.05 1.67
1.66 0.05 1.71
1.70 0.05 1.75
1.75 0.05 1.80
1.80 0.05 1.85
1.85 0.05 1.90
1.90 0.05 1.95
-1.50
-1.53
-1.56
-1.59
-1.62
-1.66
-1.70
-1.75
-1.80
-1.85
-1.90
Barley Area Harvested
0.20
0.64
0.74
0.74
(Million Hectares) 0.74 0.74 0.73
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.73
Yield
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.88 0.90 0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.16 0.00 0.16
0.53 0.00 0.53
0.62 0.00 0.62
0.64 0.00 0.64
(Million Metric Tons) 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.65 0.66 0.68
0.69 0.00 0.69
0.70 0.00 0.70
0.72 0.00 0.72
0.73 0.00 0.73
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.16 0.00 1.16
1.17 0.00 1.17
1.18 0.00 1.18
1.19 0.00 1.19
1.20 0.00 1.20
1.22 0.00 1.22
1.23 0.00 1.23
1.25 0.00 1.25
1.27 0.00 1.27
1.29 0.00 1.29
1.31 0.00 1.31
-1.00
-0.64
-0.56
-0.56
-0.55
-0.56
-0.56
-0.56
-0.57
-0.57
-0.57
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 201
Egyptian Coarse Grrain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
0.75
0.76
0.77
Yield
7.73
7.80
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
5.80 0.40 6.20
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.78
(Million Hectares) 0.79 0.79 0.80
0.81
0.81
0.82
0.82
7.87
7.95
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 8.02 8.09 8.16
8.24
8.31
8.38
8.45
5.93 0.40 6.33
6.07 0.40 6.47
6.19 0.41 6.60
(Million Metric Tons) 6.31 6.42 6.53 0.41 0.41 0.42 6.72 6.84 6.95
6.64 0.42 7.06
6.74 0.43 7.17
6.84 0.43 7.27
6.95 0.43 7.38
10.50 0.40 10.90
10.51 0.40 10.91
10.75 0.41 11.16
11.01 0.41 11.42
11.24 0.41 11.66
11.47 0.42 11.89
11.71 0.42 12.13
11.96 0.43 12.39
12.22 0.43 12.65
12.48 0.43 12.92
12.76 0.43 13.20
-4.70
-4.58
-4.69
-4.82
-4.94
-5.05
-5.19
-5.33
-5.48
-5.64
-5.82
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Nigerian Coarse Gra rain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Sorghum Area Harvested
6.60
6.60
6.60
6.60
(Million Hectares) 6.60 6.60 6.60
6.60
6.60
6.60
6.60
Yield
1.09
1.11
1.13
1.15
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.17 1.19 1.21
1.24
1.26
1.28
1.30
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
7.20 0.20 7.40
7.33 0.20 7.53
7.46 0.20 7.66
7.59 0.20 7.79
(Million Metric Tons) 7.73 7.87 8.01 0.20 0.20 0.20 7.93 8.07 8.21
8.15 0.20 8.35
8.30 0.20 8.50
8.45 0.20 8.65
8.60 0.20 8.80
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
7.20 0.20 7.40
7.33 0.20 7.53
7.46 0.20 7.66
7.59 0.20 7.79
7.73 0.20 7.93
7.87 0.20 8.07
8.01 0.20 8.21
8.15 0.20 8.35
8.30 0.20 8.50
8.45 0.20 8.65
8.60 0.20 8.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Net Trade
04/05
202 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other African Coars se Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
20.29
20.10
20.08
20.11
(Million Hectares) 20.14 20.19 20.23
20.29
20.37
20.46
20.54
1.25
1.28
1.29
1.31
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.32 1.33 1.35
1.36
1.37
1.39
1.40
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
25.40 1.97 27.37
25.73 1.53 27.26
25.95 1.50 27.45
26.25 1.53 27.79
(Million Metric Tons) 26.57 26.89 27.22 1.60 1.68 1.76 28.17 28.57 28.98
27.57 1.84 29.41
27.96 1.93 29.89
28.35 2.02 30.38
28.75 2.12 30.87
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.68 25.45 1.53 29.65
2.64 25.70 1.50 29.84
2.64 25.97 1.53 30.14
2.66 26.32 1.60 30.59
2.68 26.68 1.68 31.04
2.68 27.10 1.76 31.54
2.69 27.50 1.84 32.03
2.70 27.88 1.93 32.51
2.71 28.31 2.02 33.04
2.71 28.78 2.12 33.62
2.72 29.27 2.22 34.21
-2.29
-2.58
-2.69
-2.80
-2.87
-2.97
-3.05
-3.09
-3.15
-3.24
-3.34
Barley Area Harvested
3.51
3.83
3.97
4.02
(Million Hectares) 4.05 4.07 4.08
4.09
4.10
4.11
4.11
Yield
0.73
0.99
1.00
1.01
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.02 1.03 1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.58 0.59 3.17
3.81 0.23 4.04
3.98 0.40 4.38
4.07 0.51 4.57
(Million Metric Tons) 4.14 4.20 4.24 0.56 0.59 0.62 4.70 4.79 4.86
4.29 0.64 4.93
4.34 0.66 5.00
4.39 0.68 5.07
4.43 0.70 5.13
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.10 2.85 0.23 5.17
2.21 3.01 0.40 5.62
2.28 3.21 0.51 6.00
2.29 3.36 0.56 6.21
2.35 3.42 0.59 6.37
2.42 3.45 0.62 6.49
2.47 3.49 0.64 6.60
2.54 3.51 0.66 6.71
2.61 3.52 0.68 6.81
2.70 3.52 0.70 6.92
2.77 3.54 0.71 7.03
-2.00
-1.59
-1.62
-1.64
-1.67
-1.71
-1.74
-1.77
-1.81
-1.86
-1.89
Corn Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 203
Saudi Arabian Coarrse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Barley Area Harvested
0.06
0.06
0.06
Yield
7.02
7.02
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.40 0.90 1.30
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.06
(Million Hectares) 0.06 0.06 0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
7.02
7.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 7.02 7.02 7.03
7.03
7.03
7.04
7.04
0.40 0.40 0.80
0.40 0.39 0.79
0.40 0.39 0.79
(Million Metric Tons) 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.79 0.79 0.80
0.40 0.40 0.80
0.40 0.41 0.81
0.40 0.40 0.81
0.40 0.41 0.82
5.70 0.40 6.10
5.38 0.39 5.76
5.46 0.39 5.85
5.50 0.39 5.89
5.57 0.39 5.96
5.62 0.40 6.02
5.70 0.40 6.10
5.79 0.41 6.20
5.90 0.40 6.30
6.03 0.41 6.44
6.18 0.42 6.60
-4.80
-4.96
-5.06
-5.10
-5.16
-5.23
-5.30
-5.40
-5.50
-5.63
-5.78
204 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other Middle Easter ern Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
0.96
0.97
0.97
Yield
3.42
3.44
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3.29 0.53 3.82
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.98
(Million Hectares) 0.98 0.98 0.99
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.01
3.51
3.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.65 3.72 3.79
3.86
3.93
4.00
4.07
3.33 0.48 3.81
3.42 0.45 3.87
3.51 0.43 3.94
(Million Metric Tons) 3.58 3.66 3.75 0.42 0.42 0.42 4.00 4.08 4.17
3.83 0.42 4.25
3.92 0.42 4.35
4.01 0.43 4.44
4.11 0.43 4.54
7.65 1.50 0.48 9.63
7.58 1.56 0.45 9.59
7.67 1.60 0.43 9.70
7.72 1.63 0.42 9.78
7.81 1.65 0.42 9.88
7.89 1.69 0.42 10.00
7.97 1.73 0.42 10.12
8.07 1.77 0.42 10.26
8.17 1.80 0.43 10.40
8.28 1.83 0.43 10.54
8.38 1.87 0.44 10.69
-5.81
-5.78
-5.82
-5.84
-5.88
-5.92
-5.96
-6.00
-6.05
-6.11
-6.15
Barley Area Harvested
7.19
7.19
7.21
7.21
(Million Hectares) 7.23 7.23 7.23
7.23
7.23
7.23
7.23
Yield
1.39
1.44
1.47
1.49
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.52 1.54 1.57
1.59
1.62
1.64
1.67
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
10.02 0.93 10.95
10.36 1.02 11.38
10.57 1.06 11.63
10.75 1.10 11.86
(Million Metric Tons) 10.95 11.14 11.32 1.14 1.18 1.22 12.09 12.32 12.54
11.50 1.26 12.76
11.69 1.30 12.99
11.87 1.34 13.20
12.04 1.38 13.42
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
10.10 2.05 1.02 13.17
9.98 2.55 1.06 13.60
10.08 2.68 1.10 13.86
9.95 3.00 1.14 14.09
10.00 3.16 1.18 14.34
10.08 3.29 1.22 14.59
10.13 3.43 1.26 14.82
10.22 3.54 1.30 15.06
10.31 3.65 1.34 15.30
10.47 3.69 1.38 15.54
10.56 3.80 1.41 15.77
-2.23
-2.22
-2.23
-2.23
-2.25
-2.27
-2.28
-2.30
-2.32
-2.34
-2.35
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 205
Brazilian Coarse Grrain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
13.50
13.46
13.42
13.40
(Million Hectares) 13.37 13.33 13.30
13.28
13.25
13.22
13.19
2.72
2.65
2.68
2.72
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.75 2.79 2.83
2.86
2.90
2.94
2.98
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
36.70 1.00 37.70
35.66 2.74 38.40
36.02 2.69 38.71
36.43 2.70 39.13
(Million Metric Tons) 36.82 37.21 37.61 2.72 2.73 2.75 39.54 39.94 40.36
38.02 2.77 40.79
38.43 2.78 41.22
38.84 2.80 41.64
39.26 2.82 42.08
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
35.00 2.74 37.74
36.00 2.69 38.69
36.30 2.70 39.00
36.74 2.72 39.46
37.08 2.73 39.82
37.52 2.75 40.27
37.89 2.77 40.65
38.25 2.78 41.03
38.75 2.80 41.55
39.16 2.82 41.98
39.59 2.83 42.42
-0.04
-0.30
-0.29
-0.33
-0.28
-0.33
-0.30
-0.24
-0.33
-0.34
-0.35
Barley Area Harvested
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
(Million Hectares) 0.15 0.15 0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
Yield
2.00
2.03
2.06
2.09
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.12 2.15 2.19
2.22
2.25
2.29
2.32
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.30 0.05 0.35
0.30 0.05 0.35
0.31 0.05 0.36
0.31 0.05 0.36
(Million Metric Tons) 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.37 0.37 0.38
0.33 0.05 0.38
0.34 0.05 0.39
0.34 0.05 0.39
0.35 0.05 0.40
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.40 0.05 0.45
0.41 0.05 0.46
0.43 0.05 0.48
0.44 0.05 0.49
0.46 0.05 0.51
0.48 0.05 0.53
0.49 0.05 0.54
0.51 0.05 0.56
0.53 0.05 0.58
0.55 0.05 0.60
0.57 0.05 0.62
-0.10
-0.11
-0.12
-0.13
-0.14
-0.15
-0.16
-0.18
-0.19
-0.20
-0.22
Corn Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
206 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Mexican Coarse Gra rain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
7.80
7.88
7.93
2.37
2.42
2.46
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
7.96
(Million Hectares) 7.98 7.98 7.99
7.99
7.99
7.99
7.99
2.51
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.55 2.60 2.64
2.69
2.73
2.78
2.82
21.48 2.91 24.39
21.84 2.91 24.75
22.19 2.91 25.10
22.54 2.91 25.45
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
18.50 2.34 20.84
19.05 2.72 21.77
19.53 2.85 22.37
19.95 2.89 22.84
(Million Metric Tons) 20.35 20.73 21.11 2.90 2.91 2.91 23.25 23.64 24.02
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
9.30 15.10 2.72 27.12
9.50 15.24 2.85 27.58
9.89 15.38 2.89 28.17
10.20 15.54 2.90 28.64
10.49 15.69 2.91 29.09
10.94 15.85 2.91 29.70
11.43 16.00 2.91 30.34
11.85 16.17 2.91 30.92
12.34 16.33 2.91 31.58
12.89 16.50 2.91 32.30
13.52 16.67 2.91 33.09
-6.29
-5.81
-5.80
-5.80
-5.83
-6.05
-6.32
-6.53
-6.83
-7.20
-7.64
Sorghum Area Harvested
2.00
2.02
2.01
2.00
(Million Hectares) 2.00 2.01 2.01
2.01
2.01
2.01
2.01
Yield
3.20
3.21
3.23
3.24
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.25 3.27 3.28
3.30
3.31
3.32
3.34
(Million Metric Tons) 6.52 6.55 6.59 0.89 0.89 0.89 7.42 7.45 7.48
6.62 0.89 7.51
6.65 0.89 7.54
6.68 0.89 7.58
6.72 0.89 7.61
Net Trade
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Barley Area Harvested
6.40 1.21 7.61
6.50 1.01 7.52
6.48 0.91 7.39
6.49 0.90 7.39
10.10 1.01 11.11
10.34 0.91 11.25
10.44 0.90 11.33
10.59 0.89 11.49
10.67 0.89 11.56
10.88 0.89 11.77
11.07 0.89 11.96
11.16 0.89 12.05
11.29 0.89 12.18
11.52 0.89 12.41
11.74 0.89 12.64
-3.50
-3.73
-3.94
-4.10
-4.14
-4.32
-4.48
-4.53
-4.64
-4.83
-5.02
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
(Million Hectares) 0.25 0.26 0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
2.14
2.17
2.19
2.21
Yield
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.06
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.08 2.10 2.12
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.50 0.06 0.56
0.51 0.06 0.56
0.51 0.06 0.57
0.52 0.06 0.58
(Million Metric Tons) 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.58 0.59 0.60
0.55 0.06 0.61
0.56 0.06 0.61
0.57 0.06 0.62
0.57 0.06 0.63
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.15 0.55 0.06 0.76
0.15 0.57 0.06 0.77
0.15 0.58 0.06 0.79
0.15 0.60 0.06 0.80
0.15 0.61 0.06 0.82
0.15 0.63 0.06 0.84
0.15 0.65 0.06 0.85
0.15 0.66 0.06 0.87
0.15 0.68 0.06 0.89
0.15 0.70 0.06 0.91
0.15 0.72 0.06 0.92
-0.20
-0.21
-0.22
-0.23
-0.24
-0.24
-0.25
-0.26
-0.27
-0.28
-0.29
Net Trade
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 207
Other Latin America an Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
4.89
4.88
4.91
Yield
1.90
1.94
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
9.29 0.99 10.28
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4.92
(Million Hectares) 4.92 4.92 4.93
4.93
4.94
4.95
4.96
1.98
2.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.07 2.11 2.15
2.20
2.25
2.29
2.34
9.47 1.07 10.54
9.72 1.06 10.78
9.96 1.07 11.04
(Million Metric Tons) 10.16 10.37 10.61 1.10 1.13 1.16 11.26 11.50 11.77
10.85 1.19 12.04
11.09 1.23 12.32
11.34 1.26 12.60
11.60 1.30 12.91
12.01 6.45 1.07 19.53
12.29 6.49 1.06 19.83
12.56 6.52 1.07 20.15
12.84 6.55 1.10 20.50
13.14 6.58 1.13 20.85
13.44 6.60 1.16 21.21
13.76 6.63 1.19 21.58
14.09 6.65 1.23 21.96
14.43 6.66 1.26 22.36
14.78 6.68 1.30 22.76
15.15 6.69 1.34 23.18
-9.25
-9.29
-9.37
-9.46
-9.59
-9.70
-9.81
-9.92
-10.04
-10.16
-10.27
Barley Area Harvested
0.39
0.39
0.39
0.40
(Million Hectares) 0.40 0.41 0.41
0.42
0.42
0.43
0.43
Yield
1.54
1.55
1.57
1.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.60 1.62 1.63
1.65
1.66
1.68
1.70
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.59 0.01 0.60
0.60 0.01 0.61
0.61 0.01 0.62
0.63 0.01 0.64
(Million Metric Tons) 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.66 0.68 0.69
0.69 0.03 0.71
0.70 0.03 0.73
0.72 0.03 0.75
0.73 0.03 0.77
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.09 0.72 0.01 0.81
0.09 0.73 0.01 0.82
0.09 0.74 0.01 0.84
0.09 0.75 0.02 0.85
0.09 0.77 0.02 0.87
0.09 0.78 0.02 0.89
0.09 0.80 0.03 0.91
0.09 0.82 0.03 0.93
0.09 0.84 0.03 0.95
0.09 0.86 0.03 0.98
0.09 0.88 0.04 1.00
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
-0.22
-0.22
-0.22
-0.23
-0.24
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
208 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Coarse Grain n Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
6.60
6.47
6.47
Yield
1.82
1.85
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
12.00 0.67 12.67
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
6.50
(Million Hectares) 6.53 6.56 6.59
6.63
6.66
6.68
6.72
1.88
1.91
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.94 1.98 2.01
2.04
2.07
2.10
2.14
11.97 1.02 12.98
12.17 1.15 13.32
12.43 1.21 13.64
(Million Metric Tons) 12.70 12.96 13.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 13.93 14.22 14.49
13.53 1.27 14.79
13.80 1.28 15.08
14.06 1.28 15.34
14.36 1.29 15.65
4.90 7.01 1.02 12.92
5.13 6.89 1.15 13.17
5.35 6.84 1.21 13.40
5.58 6.81 1.24 13.63
5.83 6.77 1.25 13.86
6.08 6.73 1.26 14.08
6.34 6.68 1.27 14.29
6.61 6.61 1.28 14.50
6.89 6.54 1.28 14.71
7.18 6.46 1.29 14.94
7.49 6.38 1.30 15.16
-0.34
-0.40
-0.39
-0.42
-0.46
-0.50
-0.54
-0.54
-0.57
-0.63
-0.63
10.30
9.72
9.74
10.18
(Million Hectares) 10.16 10.03 9.89
9.78
9.59
9.41
9.32
Yield
0.87
0.88
0.89
0.89
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.90 0.91 0.92
0.93
0.94
0.94
0.95
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
9.00 0.12 9.12
8.53 0.12 8.65
8.63 0.12 8.75
9.10 0.12 9.22
(Million Metric Tons) 9.17 9.14 9.10 0.12 0.12 0.12 9.29 9.26 9.22
9.07 0.12 9.19
8.98 0.12 9.10
8.88 0.12 9.00
8.87 0.12 8.99
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
9.00 0.12 9.12
8.53 0.12 8.65
8.63 0.12 8.75
9.10 0.12 9.22
9.17 0.12 9.29
9.14 0.12 9.26
9.10 0.12 9.22
9.07 0.12 9.19
8.98 0.12 9.10
8.88 0.12 9.00
8.87 0.12 8.99
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Net Trade
Sorghum Area Harvested
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 209
Indonesian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
3.00
3.03
3.06
Yield
2.07
2.09
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
6.20 0.75 6.95
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
3.05
(Million Hectares) 3.05 3.05 3.05
3.03
3.02
3.00
2.99
2.10
2.12
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.14 2.16 2.18
2.20
2.22
2.24
2.26
6.31 0.70 7.01
6.44 0.70 7.14
6.48 0.71 7.18
(Million Metric Tons) 6.53 6.59 6.64 0.71 0.71 0.71 7.24 7.30 7.35
6.67 0.71 7.39
6.70 0.71 7.41
6.72 0.71 7.43
6.77 0.71 7.48
4.35 3.05 0.70 8.10
4.35 3.11 0.70 8.16
4.41 3.21 0.71 8.33
4.48 3.24 0.71 8.43
4.55 3.29 0.71 8.55
4.64 3.33 0.71 8.68
4.71 3.37 0.71 8.80
4.80 3.40 0.71 8.91
4.88 3.43 0.71 9.02
4.97 3.45 0.71 9.13
5.07 3.48 0.71 9.27
-1.15
-1.15
-1.19
-1.25
-1.31
-1.38
-1.45
-1.53
-1.61
-1.70
-1.79
210 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Malaysian Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
0.03
0.03
0.03
Yield
2.04
2.16
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.06 0.15 0.21
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.03
(Million Hectares) 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
2.20
2.24
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.28 2.31 2.35
2.39
2.43
2.46
2.50
0.05 0.16 0.21
0.06 0.16 0.22
0.06 0.17 0.22
(Million Metric Tons) 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.23 0.23 0.24
0.06 0.19 0.24
0.06 0.19 0.25
0.06 0.20 0.26
0.06 0.20 0.26
2.38 0.07 0.16 2.61
2.34 0.08 0.16 2.58
2.40 0.09 0.17 2.65
2.44 0.10 0.17 2.71
2.49 0.11 0.18 2.78
2.55 0.12 0.18 2.85
2.62 0.13 0.19 2.93
2.70 0.14 0.19 3.03
2.79 0.15 0.20 3.13
2.89 0.16 0.20 3.25
3.00 0.17 0.21 3.37
-2.40
-2.37
-2.44
-2.49
-2.55
-2.62
-2.69
-2.78
-2.88
-2.99
-3.11
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Philippine Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
2.50
2.52
2.54
2.56
(Million Hectares) 2.58 2.61 2.63
2.65
2.67
2.70
2.72
Yield
1.72
1.75
1.79
1.83
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.87 1.91 1.95
1.99
2.03
2.07
2.11
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4.30 0.45 4.75
4.40 0.20 4.60
4.55 0.21 4.76
4.69 0.22 4.91
(Million Metric Tons) 4.83 4.98 5.13 0.24 0.25 0.27 5.07 5.23 5.40
5.28 0.28 5.56
5.43 0.30 5.73
5.58 0.31 5.90
5.74 0.33 6.07
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3.60 1.55 0.20 5.35
3.90 1.58 0.21 5.69
3.90 1.61 0.22 5.74
4.02 1.64 0.24 5.91
4.11 1.67 0.25 6.04
4.23 1.70 0.27 6.20
4.32 1.73 0.28 6.34
4.43 1.76 0.30 6.49
4.58 1.79 0.31 6.69
4.72 1.82 0.33 6.87
4.87 1.85 0.34 7.07
-0.60
-1.09
-0.98
-0.99
-0.96
-0.96
-0.94
-0.93
-0.96
-0.97
-1.00
Net Trade
04/05
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 211
Pakistani Coarse Gr Grain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0.87
0.88
0.87
1.44
1.48
1.49
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.87
(Million Hectares) 0.87 0.88 0.88
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.87
1.51
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.52 1.53 1.54
1.55
1.56
1.57
1.59
1.36 0.00 1.36
1.37 0.00 1.37
1.38 0.00 1.38
1.39 0.00 1.39
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.25 0.00 1.25
1.31 0.00 1.31
1.31 0.00 1.31
1.32 0.00 1.32
(Million Metric Tons) 1.33 1.34 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.33 1.34 1.35
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.42 0.84 0.00 1.25
0.42 0.89 0.00 1.31
0.42 0.88 0.00 1.31
0.43 0.89 0.00 1.32
0.43 0.90 0.00 1.33
0.44 0.90 0.00 1.34
0.44 0.91 0.00 1.35
0.45 0.91 0.00 1.36
0.45 0.91 0.00 1.37
0.46 0.92 0.00 1.38
0.46 0.92 0.00 1.39
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.40
0.39
0.40
0.41
(Million Hectares) 0.42 0.43 0.44
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.46
0.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.58 0.59 0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.60
0.26 0.00 0.26
0.27 0.00 0.27
0.27 0.00 0.27
0.28 0.00 0.28
Net Trade Sorghum Area Harvested Yield
0.58
0.58
0.58
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.23 0.00 0.23
0.23 0.00 0.23
0.23 0.00 0.23
0.24 0.00 0.24
(Million Metric Tons) 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.26
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.09 0.15 0.00 0.23
0.09 0.14 0.00 0.23
0.09 0.14 0.00 0.23
0.10 0.14 0.00 0.24
0.10 0.15 0.00 0.25
0.10 0.15 0.00 0.25
0.11 0.15 0.00 0.26
0.11 0.15 0.00 0.26
0.12 0.15 0.00 0.27
0.12 0.15 0.00 0.27
0.13 0.15 0.00 0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Barley Area Harvested
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
(Million Hectares) 0.16 0.16 0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
Yield
1.05
1.07
1.09
1.10
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.12 1.14 1.16
1.17
1.19
1.21
1.23
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.17 0.00 0.17
0.17 0.00 0.17
0.17 0.00 0.17
0.18 0.00 0.18
(Million Metric Tons) 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.18 0.18
0.19 0.00 0.19
0.19 0.00 0.19
0.19 0.00 0.19
0.19 0.00 0.19
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.00 0.17 0.00 0.17
0.00 0.17 0.00 0.17
0.00 0.17 0.00 0.17
0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18
0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18
0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18
0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18
0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19
0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19
0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19
0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Net Trade
Net Trade
212 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
South Korean Coars rse Grain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0.02
0.02
0.02
4.25
4.31
4.37
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.02
(Million Hectares) 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
4.43
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.49 4.55 4.61
4.67
4.73
4.79
4.85
0.07 0.66 0.74
0.07 0.67 0.74
0.07 0.67 0.74
0.07 0.68 0.75
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.09 0.86 0.94
0.08 0.64 0.72
0.08 0.60 0.68
0.08 0.63 0.71
(Million Metric Tons) 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.72 0.72 0.73
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
6.50 1.80 0.64 8.94
6.53 1.84 0.60 8.97
6.99 1.90 0.63 9.51
7.03 1.93 0.64 9.60
7.11 1.97 0.64 9.72
7.21 2.01 0.65 9.87
7.29 2.06 0.66 10.01
7.33 2.12 0.67 10.12
7.38 2.19 0.67 10.24
7.43 2.26 0.68 10.38
7.48 2.35 0.69 10.52
-8.00
-8.25
-8.83
-8.88
-9.01
-9.15
-9.28
-9.39
-9.50
-9.63
-9.77
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Trade
Taiwanese Coarse Grain G Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
(Million Hectares) 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
5.33
5.40
5.48
5.55
Yield
4.80
4.88
4.95
5.03
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.10 5.18 5.25
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.02 1.48 1.50
0.02 1.40 1.42
0.02 1.38 1.41
0.03 1.38 1.40
(Million Metric Tons) 0.03 0.03 0.03 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.40 1.40 1.40
0.03 1.37 1.40
0.03 1.37 1.40
0.03 1.37 1.40
0.03 1.37 1.40
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
5.00 0.20 1.40 6.60
5.01 0.21 1.38 6.60
5.07 0.21 1.38 6.65
5.14 0.21 1.37 6.73
5.24 0.21 1.37 6.83
5.36 0.21 1.37 6.95
5.48 0.21 1.37 7.07
5.55 0.21 1.37 7.13
5.63 0.21 1.37 7.21
5.74 0.21 1.37 7.32
5.87 0.21 1.37 7.45
-5.10
-5.17
-5.25
-5.33
-5.43
-5.55
-5.67
-5.73
-5.81
-5.92
-6.05
Barley Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
(Million Metric Tons) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.08 0.13 0.00 0.20
0.08 0.13 0.00 0.21
0.09 0.13 0.00 0.22
0.10 0.13 0.00 0.23
0.11 0.13 0.00 0.24
0.12 0.14 0.00 0.26
0.13 0.14 0.00 0.27
0.14 0.14 0.00 0.28
0.15 0.14 0.00 0.30
0.17 0.14 0.00 0.31
0.18 0.15 0.00 0.32
-0.20
-0.21
-0.22
-0.23
-0.24
-0.26
-0.27
-0.28
-0.30
-0.31
-0.32
Net Trade
Net Trade
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 213
Thai Coarse Grain Supply S and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
1.20
1.20
1.22
Yield
3.67
3.68
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4.40 0.24 4.64
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.23
(Million Hectares) 1.24 1.25 1.26
1.27
1.28
1.29
1.30
3.69
3.72
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.75 3.79 3.83
3.88
3.94
4.01
4.08
4.43 0.34 4.77
4.49 0.34 4.83
4.56 0.34 4.90
(Million Metric Tons) 4.63 4.72 4.81 0.34 0.34 0.34 4.98 5.06 5.16
4.92 0.34 5.26
5.03 0.34 5.37
5.16 0.34 5.50
5.29 0.34 5.63
4.40 0.34 4.74
5.06 0.34 5.40
4.93 0.34 5.27
4.82 0.34 5.16
4.91 0.34 5.26
5.15 0.34 5.49
5.40 0.34 5.74
5.64 0.34 5.98
6.01 0.34 6.35
6.38 0.34 6.72
6.77 0.34 7.11
-0.10
-0.63
-0.44
-0.26
-0.28
-0.43
-0.59
-0.72
-0.97
-1.22
-1.48
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Vietnamese Coarse e Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
0.69
0.70
0.71
0.72
(Million Hectares) 0.72 0.73 0.74
0.75
0.76
0.77
0.78
Yield
2.61
2.65
2.70
2.75
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.80 2.85 2.90
2.96
3.01
3.06
3.11
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.80 0.00 1.80
1.84 0.00 1.84
1.91 0.00 1.91
1.97 0.00 1.97
(Million Metric Tons) 2.03 2.09 2.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.03 2.09 2.16
2.22 0.00 2.22
2.29 0.00 2.29
2.36 0.00 2.36
2.43 0.00 2.43
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.95 0.00 1.95
2.01 0.00 2.01
2.07 0.00 2.07
2.14 0.00 2.14
2.22 0.00 2.22
2.30 0.00 2.30
2.40 0.00 2.40
2.50 0.00 2.50
2.61 0.00 2.61
2.73 0.00 2.73
2.86 0.00 2.86
-0.15
-0.17
-0.17
-0.17
-0.19
-0.21
-0.24
-0.27
-0.32
-0.37
-0.43
Net Trade
04/05
214 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other Asian Coarse e Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
1.86
1.87
1.88
Yield
1.87
1.90
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3.49 0.00 3.49
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.89
(Million Hectares) 1.90 1.91 1.92
1.93
1.94
1.95
1.96
1.89
1.89
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.88 1.88 1.88
1.87
1.87
1.86
1.86
3.55 0.00 3.55
3.56 0.00 3.56
3.57 0.00 3.57
(Million Metric Tons) 3.58 3.59 3.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.58 3.59 3.60
3.61 0.00 3.61
3.62 0.00 3.62
3.63 0.00 3.63
3.64 0.00 3.64
0.08 3.57 0.00 3.65
0.08 3.56 0.00 3.64
0.09 3.58 0.00 3.67
0.09 3.61 0.00 3.70
0.10 3.65 0.00 3.75
0.10 3.68 0.00 3.78
0.11 3.71 0.00 3.82
0.11 3.74 0.00 3.85
0.12 3.78 0.00 3.89
0.12 3.80 0.00 3.92
0.13 3.83 0.00 3.95
-0.16
-0.09
-0.11
-0.13
-0.17
-0.19
-0.22
-0.24
-0.27
-0.29
-0.31
Barley Area Harvested
1.09
1.12
1.17
1.20
(Million Hectares) 1.24 1.28 1.31
1.33
1.35
1.36
1.37
Yield
1.97
1.97
2.00
2.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.05 2.07 2.10
2.12
2.14
2.17
2.19
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.15 0.02 2.17
2.21 0.02 2.23
2.33 0.02 2.35
2.43 0.02 2.45
(Million Metric Tons) 2.55 2.65 2.73 0.02 0.02 0.02 2.57 2.67 2.75
2.82 0.02 2.84
2.89 0.02 2.91
2.95 0.02 2.97
3.00 0.02 3.02
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.15 2.10 0.02 2.27
0.16 2.15 0.02 2.33
0.16 2.27 0.02 2.45
0.17 2.37 0.02 2.55
0.17 2.48 0.02 2.67
0.18 2.57 0.02 2.77
0.18 2.65 0.02 2.85
0.19 2.73 0.02 2.94
0.19 2.80 0.02 3.01
0.20 2.86 0.02 3.07
0.20 2.90 0.02 3.12
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 215
Czech Republic Coa oarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
0.04
0.04
0.04
Yield
5.75
5.76
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.23 0.06 0.29
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.04
(Million Hectares) 0.04 0.04 0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
5.77
5.78
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.79 5.80 5.81
5.82
5.83
5.84
5.85
0.24 0.02 0.26
0.24 0.02 0.26
0.25 0.02 0.27
(Million Metric Tons) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.27 0.27 0.27
0.25 0.02 0.27
0.25 0.02 0.27
0.25 0.02 0.27
0.25 0.02 0.27
0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39
0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39
0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39
0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39
0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39
0.25 0.12 0.02 0.39
0.25 0.12 0.02 0.40
0.26 0.12 0.02 0.40
0.26 0.12 0.02 0.40
0.26 0.12 0.02 0.41
0.27 0.12 0.02 0.41
-0.10
-0.13
-0.13
-0.12
-0.12
-0.12
-0.12
-0.13
-0.13
-0.14
-0.14
Barley Area Harvested
0.50
0.50
0.51
0.51
(Million Hectares) 0.52 0.52 0.53
0.53
0.54
0.54
0.55
Yield
3.30
3.33
3.37
3.40
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.43 3.47 3.50
3.54
3.57
3.61
3.65
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.65 0.05 1.70
1.68 0.05 1.73
1.71 0.05 1.76
1.75 0.05 1.80
(Million Metric Tons) 1.78 1.81 1.85 0.05 0.05 0.05 1.83 1.86 1.90
1.88 0.05 1.93
1.92 0.05 1.97
1.95 0.05 2.00
1.99 0.05 2.04
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.20 0.58 0.05 1.83
1.20 0.57 0.05 1.82
1.19 0.58 0.05 1.82
1.19 0.58 0.05 1.82
1.20 0.58 0.05 1.83
1.20 0.59 0.05 1.84
1.21 0.59 0.05 1.86
1.23 0.60 0.05 1.88
1.25 0.60 0.05 1.91
1.27 0.61 0.05 1.93
1.30 0.61 0.05 1.96
-0.13
-0.09
-0.06
-0.03
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
216 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Hungarian Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
1.10
1.14
1.14
Yield
4.09
5.28
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4.50 0.45 4.95
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1.15
(Million Hectares) 1.15 1.15 1.16
1.16
1.16
1.17
1.17
5.41
5.51
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.62 5.73 5.85
5.96
6.07
6.18
6.30
6.01 0.10 6.11
6.17 0.28 6.45
6.33 0.28 6.61
(Million Metric Tons) 6.45 6.60 6.76 0.29 0.29 0.30 6.73 6.89 7.05
6.91 0.30 7.21
7.07 0.31 7.38
7.23 0.31 7.54
7.39 0.32 7.71
4.00 0.70 0.10 4.80
4.06 0.70 0.28 5.04
4.20 0.70 0.28 5.18
4.31 0.71 0.29 5.31
4.42 0.71 0.29 5.42
4.54 0.71 0.30 5.55
4.65 0.72 0.30 5.67
4.74 0.72 0.31 5.77
4.85 0.72 0.31 5.88
4.98 0.72 0.32 6.01
5.13 0.73 0.32 6.18
0.15
1.02
1.21
1.25
1.26
1.29
1.33
1.40
1.45
1.47
1.48
Barley Area Harvested
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.34
(Million Hectares) 0.34 0.35 0.35
0.35
0.36
0.36
0.36
Yield
2.73
2.90
2.93
2.96
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.99 3.02 3.05
3.08
3.11
3.14
3.17
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.90 0.10 1.00
0.96 0.10 1.06
0.98 0.10 1.08
1.00 0.10 1.10
(Million Metric Tons) 1.03 1.05 1.07 0.10 0.10 0.10 1.13 1.15 1.17
1.09 0.10 1.19
1.11 0.10 1.21
1.12 0.10 1.22
1.14 0.10 1.24
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.53 0.40 0.10 1.03
0.53 0.39 0.10 1.02
0.53 0.39 0.10 1.02
0.53 0.38 0.10 1.01
0.53 0.38 0.10 1.01
0.54 0.37 0.10 1.00
0.54 0.36 0.10 1.00
0.54 0.35 0.10 0.99
0.54 0.35 0.10 0.99
0.54 0.34 0.10 0.98
0.55 0.33 0.10 0.98
-0.03
0.04
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.14
0.17
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 217
Polish Coarse Grain n Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
0.18
0.15
0.15
Yield
5.00
5.30
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.90 0.18 26.67
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.15
(Million Hectares) 0.16 0.16 0.16
0.16
0.16
0.17
0.17
5.35
5.40
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 5.44 5.49 5.54
5.59
5.64
5.69
5.75
0.80 0.33 27.67
0.81 0.33 28.67
0.83 0.34 29.67
(Million Metric Tons) 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.34 0.35 0.35 30.67 31.67 32.67
0.91 0.35 33.67
0.93 0.35 34.67
0.95 0.35 34.67
0.97 0.35 34.67
0.88 0.08 0.33 26.37
0.92 0.08 0.33 27.37
0.97 0.08 0.34 28.37
1.01 0.08 0.34 29.37
1.05 0.08 0.35 30.37
1.08 0.08 0.35 31.37
1.12 0.08 0.35 32.37
1.16 0.08 0.35 33.37
1.21 0.08 0.35 34.37
1.27 0.08 0.35 34.37
1.33 0.08 0.35 34.37
-0.20
-0.21
-0.23
-0.26
-0.27
-0.29
-0.31
-0.33
-0.36
-0.40
-0.44
Barley Area Harvested
1.10
1.07
1.07
1.07
(Million Hectares) 1.07 1.06 1.05
1.04
1.04
1.03
1.02
Yield
2.64
2.95
2.98
3.01
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.04 3.07 3.10
3.13
3.16
3.19
3.23
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.90 0.28 3.18
3.16 0.23 3.39
3.20 0.24 3.44
3.22 0.25 3.47
(Million Metric Tons) 3.24 3.25 3.26 0.26 0.27 0.29 3.50 3.52 3.54
3.27 0.30 3.56
3.28 0.31 3.58
3.29 0.32 3.61
3.31 0.33 3.63
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2.20 1.00 0.23 3.43
2.30 1.00 0.24 3.54
2.42 1.01 0.25 3.68
2.52 1.02 0.26 3.80
2.61 1.03 0.27 3.91
2.69 1.04 0.29 4.01
2.78 1.04 0.30 4.11
2.88 1.05 0.31 4.23
2.98 1.05 0.32 4.35
3.11 1.05 0.33 4.48
3.25 1.05 0.33 4.63
-0.25
-0.16
-0.25
-0.33
-0.41
-0.49
-0.57
-0.67
-0.77
-0.88
-1.00
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
218 / World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other Eastern Euro opean Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Corn Area Harvested
5.07
5.41
5.47
Yield
2.18
3.70
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
11.03 6.53 17.56
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
5.47
(Million Hectares) 5.46 5.48 5.50
5.53
5.56
5.58
5.61
3.73
3.76
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.79 3.82 3.85
3.88
3.91
3.94
3.98
20.00 1.84 21.84
20.40 2.35 22.75
20.55 2.77 23.32
(Million Metric Tons) 20.71 20.93 21.19 2.81 2.85 2.88 23.52 23.77 24.07
21.47 2.92 24.39
21.73 2.96 24.69
22.00 3.00 25.00
22.29 3.04 25.32
11.93 3.90 1.84 17.66
14.49 3.89 2.35 20.73
14.60 3.88 2.77 21.26
14.82 3.88 2.81 21.52
14.89 3.88 2.85 21.62
15.03 3.89 2.88 21.80
15.15 3.89 2.92 21.96
15.27 3.89 2.96 22.12
15.49 3.89 3.00 22.38
15.62 3.89 3.04 22.55
15.79 3.89 3.08 22.76
-0.11
1.11
1.49
1.81
1.90
1.97
2.11
2.26
2.31
2.44
2.56
Barley Area Harvested
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.03
(Million Hectares) 1.04 1.05 1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
1.08
Yield
2.33
2.45
2.48
2.51
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.54 2.57 2.60
2.63
2.66
2.70
2.73
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2.41 0.40 2.81
2.53 0.30 2.83
2.56 0.30 2.87
2.59 0.31 2.90
(Million Metric Tons) 2.64 2.69 2.74 0.31 0.31 0.31 2.95 3.00 3.05
2.80 0.31 3.11
2.85 0.32 3.17
2.91 0.32 3.22
2.96 0.32 3.28
Feed Use Food and Other Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.93 0.86 0.30 3.08
1.96 0.87 0.30 3.13
1.96 0.88 0.31 3.15
1.94 0.88 0.31 3.13
1.95 0.89 0.31 3.14
1.97 0.89 0.31 3.17
1.98 0.89 0.31 3.19
2.00 0.90 0.32 3.21
2.01 0.90 0.32 3.23
2.04 0.90 0.32 3.27
2.06 0.90 0.32 3.29
-0.28
-0.31
-0.28
-0.23
-0.19
-0.17
-0.14
-0.10
-0.06
-0.04
-0.01
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Coarse Grains: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 219
Rest-of-World Coars rse Grain Supply and Utilization Corn Area Harvested Yield
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0.11
0.11
0.11
6.95
6.86
6.93
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0.11
(Million Hectares) 0.11 0.11 0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
7.00
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 7.07 7.14 7.21
7.28
7.35
7.43
7.50
0.83 0.09 0.92
0.84 0.09 0.93
0.85 0.09 0.94
0.86 0.10 0.95
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0.77 0.09 0.86
0.76 0.09 0.85
0.78 0.09 0.87
0.79 0.09 0.88
(Million Metric Tons) 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.89 0.90 0.91
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
0.87 0.09 0.96
0.87 0.09 0.96
0.89 0.09 0.98
0.91 0.09 1.00
0.92 0.09 1.01
0.94 0.09 1.03
0.96 0.09 1.05
0.98 0.09 1.07
1.00 0.09 1.09
1.02 0.10 1.11
1.04 0.10 1.13
-0.10
-0.11
-0.11
-0.12
-0.13
-0.14
-0.14
-0.15
-0.16
-0.17
-0.18
16.84
16.85
16.86
16.85
(Million Hectares) 16.84 16.82 16.81
16.80
16.78
16.75
16.73
0.87
1.01
1.02
1.03
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.04 1.05 1.06
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.10
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
14.73 0.32 15.05
17.02 0.32 17.34
17.20 0.41 17.61
17.36 0.50 17.86
(Million Metric Tons) 17.52 17.68 17.84 0.57 0.62 0.64 18.09 18.30 18.48
18.01 0.65 18.66
18.17 0.65 18.82
18.32 0.65 18.98
18.49 0.64 19.12
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
15.31 0.32 15.62
17.32 0.41 17.73
17.54 0.50 18.04
17.73 0.57 18.30
17.93 0.62 18.54
18.12 0.64 18.76
18.33 0.65 18.98
18.56 0.65 19.22
18.79 0.65 19.44
19.01 0.64 19.64
19.24 0.60 19.84
-0.58
-0.40
-0.43
-0.43
-0.45
-0.47
-0.50
-0.56
-0.62
-0.67
-0.72
Barley Area Harvested
0.30
0.29
0.28
0.28
(Million Hectares) 0.27 0.27 0.26
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.25
Yield
4.28
4.60
4.67
4.74
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 4.81 4.88 4.96
5.03
5.11
5.18
5.26
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1.29 0.48 1.78
1.34 0.37 1.71
1.33 0.39 1.71
1.31 0.39 1.71
(Million Metric Tons) 1.31 1.31 1.30 0.39 0.39 0.39 1.70 1.70 1.69
1.30 0.38 1.69
1.30 0.38 1.68
1.30 0.38 1.68
1.30 0.37 1.67
Domestic Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1.42 0.37 1.79
1.47 0.39 1.85
1.52 0.39 1.92
1.57 0.39 1.96
1.62 0.39 2.01
1.67 0.39 2.06
1.73 0.38 2.11
1.78 0.38 2.16
1.83 0.38 2.21
1.89 0.37 2.26
1.94 0.37 2.31
-0.01
-0.14
-0.20
-0.25
-0.31
-0.36
-0.42
-0.47
-0.53
-0.59
-0.64
Net Trade Sorghum Area Harvested Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
WORLD OILSEEDS AND PRODUCTS
222 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Soybean and Soybean Products Rotterdam soybean prices decline 11.5 percent to $205 per mt in 2000/01 and are expected to decline an additional 3.5 percent in 2001/02. Rotterdam soybean prices increase 2.3 percent annually to $244 per mt by 2010/11. Current soy meal prices increased by 10 percent from last year while soy oil prices decreased for the third consecutive year. Soy meal is not expected to maintain its current strength, but soy oil prices are projected to start a recovery next year. Despite depressed world prices, low soybean production costs allow Argentina and Brazil to expand their soybean area by 3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, in 2001/02. Soybean area increases in both countries, from the current 9.7 mha in Argentina to 11.3 mha and from 13.4 mha in Brazil to 17.2 mha by 2010/11, accounting for 80 percent of total soybean area expansion. World soybean trade grows 47.6 percent over the baseline. Due to the strong expansion of South American soybean exports, the U.S. share of world soybean trade declines from 63 percent in the current year to 50 percent in 2010/ 11. Brazil increases its exports by 10.2 mmt and captures one-third of world soybean exports by 2010/11. After declining for three years, the soybean meal export market volume increases in 2000/01, and this trend is expected to continue in 2001/02. The market grows at about 1 percent per year from 2003/04 onward in response to expanding livestock production in several Asian and developing countries. Exports from Argentina and Brazil continue to dominate international soybean meal trade. The United States captures 20 percent of the market. Argentina supplies over 50 percent of the world’s soy oil exports throughout the projection period. The United States increases its market share of soy oil trade from 10 to 13 percent by 2010/11. Equalization of cereal and oilseed compensatory payments abolishes crop-specific payments for oilseeds by 2002/03. As a result, EU oilseed area declines 6 percent. The EU ban on animal protein meal increases the consumption of soy meal by 1 mmt in 2000/01, and a similar increase is expected in 2001/02. Policies favoring oilseed imports and domestic crush prompt China’s emergence as the second largest importer of soybeans. China’s soybean net imports grow from 7.6 mmt to 16.3 mmt by 2010/11. China’s soy oil net imports increase from 0.6 mmt to 1.2 mmt during the baseline, but soybean meal net imports decline until China becomes a small net exporter in 2010/11. Strong income and population growth drive India’s soybean oil net imports up to 1.1 mmt, making India the second largest soybean oil importer during the projection period. In contrast, with increasing crush and a small livestock sector, India remains a large exporter of soybean meal. Japan imports a large quantity of soybeans for its domestic crushing industry. However, weak growth in livestock production and rising meat imports keep Japanese soybean imports stable at their current level of about 4.8 mmt. Taiwan is one of the world’s largest soybean importers, with estimated imports of 2.3 mmt in 2000/01. Taiwan’s soybean imports grow slowly during the baseline because of weak growth in livestock production and strong substitution of palm oil for other vegetable oils. South Korean soybean and soybean meal imports grow to meet feed demand in its pork and poultry industries. Korean soybean and meal imports increase by 358 tmt and 489 tmt, respectively, during the baseline.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 223
Soybean Trade 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
4,501 10,400 500 26,461
5,269 11,071 465 28,313
5,669 11,441 446 29,932
Total Net Exports
41,862
45,118
Net Importers Eastern Europe European Union Former Soviet Union Japan China India South Korea Taiwan Rest of World
54 15,951 83 4,750 7,650 0 1,700 2,350 9,324
Total Net Imports
Net Exporters Argentina Brazil Canada United States
Prices FOB Gulf CIF Rotterdam
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
6,044 12,192 458 30,603
(Thousand Metric Tons) 6,493 6,940 7,419 13,209 14,507 15,746 478 504 526 30,922 30,912 30,818
7,907 16,957 547 30,880
8,402 18,215 569 30,862
8,903 19,527 589 30,977
9,428 20,620 603 31,143
47,488
49,297
51,101
52,863
54,509
56,290
58,049
59,996
61,794
53 16,625 86 4,767 9,271 0 1,726 2,342 10,248
54 16,656 96 4,766 10,682 0 1,793 2,343 11,099
50 16,760 102 4,767 11,995 0 1,835 2,347 11,442
46 16,864 103 4,771 12,976 0 1,874 2,349 12,119
44 16,965 108 4,774 13,586 0 1,905 2,354 13,128
44 17,076 115 4,777 14,177 0 1,932 2,357 14,030
42 17,173 120 4,781 14,732 0 1,964 2,363 15,115
41 17,268 126 4,784 15,342 0 1,999 2,369 16,120
42 17,385 137 4,786 15,823 0 2,029 2,376 17,417
44 17,498 149 4,787 16,337 0 2,058 2,383 18,538
41,862
45,118
47,488
49,297
51,101
52,863
54,509
56,290
58,049
59,996
61,794
182 205
176 197
177 198
181 203
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 188 194 199 211 217 223
205 230
211 236
215 241
218 244
224 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Soybean Area Harvested Million Hectares 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Argentina
Brazil
2002/03 China
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
U.S.
Soybean Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton
Percent 14
350 320
12 290 10
260 230
8
200 6
170 140
4
110 2 80 0
50 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Stock-to-Use Ratio
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
Soybean CIF Rotterdam
2008/09
2010/11
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 225
Major Soybean Exporters Million Metric Tons 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
United States
2002/03
Argentina
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Brazil
Major Soybean Importers Million Metric Tons 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95 EU
1996/97 China
1998/99
2000/01
Rest of World
2002/03
Taiwan
South Korea
Japan
226 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Soybean Production to Crush Ratios Production/Crush 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
Argentina
1996/97 Brazil
1998/99 China
2000/01
2002/03
EU
2004/05
India
2006/07 Japan
2008/09
2010/11
U.S.
China Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade Million Metric Tons 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Net Trade
2000/01
2002/03
Production
2004/05 Consumption
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 227
Soybean Meal Trade de 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
14,151 10,000 2,500 6,465
14,470 9,989 2,400 7,144
14,641 10,223 1,940 6,928
Total Net Exports
33,116
34,002
Net Importers Canada Eastern Europe European Union Former Soviet Union Japan China South Korea Taiwan Rest of World
680 2,410 14,986 273 900 785 950 50 12,082
Total Net Imports
Net Exporters Argentina Brazil India United States
Prices FOB Decatur 48% CIF Rotterdam
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
14,830 10,338 1,952 6,785
(Thousand Metric Tons) 15,024 15,216 15,402 10,429 10,496 10,575 2,040 2,134 2,253 6,780 6,755 6,790
15,588 10,658 2,357 6,727
15,776 10,737 2,468 6,763
15,961 10,823 2,556 6,759
16,141 10,904 2,681 6,771
33,731
33,905
34,273
34,601
35,020
35,330
35,745
36,100
36,498
790 2,419 15,793 372 912 743 1,077 56 11,841
1,051 2,407 15,311 371 872 766 1,128 43 11,782
992 2,472 15,516 388 869 596 1,174 36 11,861
1,024 2,510 16,179 393 869 586 1,189 26 11,498
1,160 2,530 16,414 396 866 471 1,206 13 11,546
1,293 2,552 16,372 397 854 422 1,252 -2 11,879
1,257 2,590 16,304 402 849 266 1,317 -6 12,351
1,254 2,638 16,475 406 846 259 1,369 -7 12,505
1,349 2,671 16,491 403 842 73 1,402 -8 12,875
1,460 2,719 16,479 404 836 -37 1,439 -8 13,206
33,116
34,002
33,731
33,905
34,273
34,601
35,020
35,330
35,745
36,100
36,498
202 199
194 191
193 190
195 193
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 200 203 206 197 200 202
209 205
212 208
214 210
215 211
228 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Major Soybean Meal Exporters Million Metric Tons 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
United States
2000/01 Argentina
2002/03 Brazil
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
India
Major Soybean Meal Importers Million Metric Tons 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95 EU
1996/97 China
1998/99
2000/01
Eastern Europe
2002/03 Japan
2004/05
South Korea
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 229
Chinese Oilseed Meal Consumption Shares 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 Soy Meal Rape Meal Sun Meal Palm Kernel Meal Peanut Meal
2008/09
2010/11
Soy Meal
1998/99
2000/01
Rape Meal
2002/03
Sun Meal
2004/05
Peanut Meal
EU Oilseed Meal Consumption Shares 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990/91
1992/93
230 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Soybean Oil Trade 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
3,161 1,070 1,116 599
3,215 1,064 1,116 767
3,258 1,111 1,108 700
3,301 1,139 1,089 744
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,345 3,388 3,432 1,174 1,206 1,238 1,059 1,037 1,014 777 808 837
3,476 1,270 994 858
3,519 1,298 972 888
3,563 1,321 954 873
3,606 1,342 938 903
Total Net Exports
5,946
6,162
6,178
6,272
6,354
6,439
6,521
6,598
6,678
6,710
6,790
Net Importers Canada Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Japan China India South Korea Taiwan Rest of World
-20 97 150 26 600 780 120 50 4,144
-19 111 162 27 716 827 137 76 4,126
-15 115 166 28 656 973 126 79 4,050
-12 119 168 28 671 1,008 116 83 4,091
-9 123 171 28 722 1,025 109 88 4,097
-7 126 174 27 778 1,039 108 93 4,101
-4 130 176 26 854 1,049 113 98 4,078
-1 134 179 25 921 1,063 122 104 4,050
2 138 183 24 982 1,075 136 110 4,027
5 143 189 21 1,085 1,096 157 117 3,897
9 148 195 13 1,173 1,107 177 123 3,844
Total Net Imports
5,946
6,162
6,178
6,272
6,354
6,439
6,521
6,597
6,677
6,710
6,789
314 315
326 321
332 323
347 330
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 364 383 403 338 348 357
424 367
447 378
463 386
484 395
Net Exporters Argentina Brazil European Union United States
Prices FOB Decatur FOB Rotterdam
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 231
Soybean Oil Trade and Price Dollars per Metric Ton
Million Metric Tons 8
800
6
700
4
600
2
500
0
400
-2
300
-4
200
-6
100 0
-8 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
China India Brazil EU
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Others Argentina U.S. Soybean Oil, FOB Rotterdam Price
Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries Kilograms per Year 25
20
15
10
5
0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95 China
1996/97 India
1998/99 Japan
2000/01
2002/03
Canada
2004/05 South Korea
2006/07
2008/09
Taiwan
2010/11
232 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Soybean Secto or Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
29,429
30,191
30,040
29,886
(Thousand Hectares) 29,829 29,792 29,748
29,678
29,640
29,764
29,880
2.56
2.66
2.69
2.73
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.76 2.79 2.82
2.85
2.88
2.90
2.93
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
75,378 7,884 83,262
80,182 8,666 88,847
80,823 10,693 91,516
81,443 11,171 92,614
(Thousand Metric Tons) 82,236 83,057 83,844 10,951 10,515 10,155 93,187 93,572 93,999
84,555 9,869 94,424
85,323 9,521 94,843
86,445 9,174 95,619
87,553 8,998 96,551
Crush Seed, Residual Ending Stocks Domestic Use
43,566 4,569 8,666 48,135
45,188 4,653 10,693 49,842
45,751 4,661 11,171 50,413
46,382 4,677 10,951 51,060
47,045 4,705 10,515 51,750
47,794 4,711 10,155 52,505
48,582 4,731 9,869 53,313
49,291 4,733 9,521 54,024
50,039 4,767 9,174 54,807
50,841 4,804 8,998 55,645
51,720 4,857 8,831 56,576
26,461
28,313
29,932
30,603
30,922
30,912
30,818
30,880
30,862
30,977
31,143
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
34,777 266 35,043
35,774 249 36,023
36,220 228 36,448
36,719 226 36,946
37,244 228 37,472
37,837 228 38,066
38,461 230 38,691
39,022 232 39,255
39,615 234 39,849
40,249 237 40,485
40,945 238 41,183
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
28,329 249 28,578
28,651 228 28,879
29,294 226 29,521
29,933 228 30,161
30,464 228 30,692
31,080 230 31,310
31,669 232 31,901
32,293 234 32,528
32,849 237 33,086
33,488 238 33,726
34,169 243 34,412
6,465
7,144
6,928
6,785
6,780
6,755
6,790
6,727
6,763
6,759
6,771
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
8,198 905 9,103
8,541 1,040 9,581
8,651 1,040 9,691
8,774 1,037 9,811
8,903 1,036 9,939
9,049 1,036 10,085
9,202 1,033 10,235
9,341 1,030 10,370
9,487 1,023 10,509
9,643 1,013 10,656
9,814 1,012 10,826
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
7,463 1,040 8,504
7,774 1,040 8,814
7,954 1,037 8,991
8,031 1,036 9,067
8,126 1,036 9,162
8,244 1,033 9,276
8,368 1,030 9,398
8,490 1,023 9,512
8,608 1,013 9,621
8,771 1,012 9,783
8,915 1,007 9,923
599
767
700
744
777
808
837
858
888
873
903
Soybeans Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 233
Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
9,700
9,993
10,118
2.42
2.44
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
23,500 400 23,900
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Soybeans Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
10,219
(Thousand Hectares) 10,370 10,515 10,675
10,834
10,991
11,146
11,309
2.47
2.51
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.54 2.57 2.60
2.64
2.67
2.70
2.73
24,360 600 24,960
25,013 602 25,615
25,641 603 26,244
(Thousand Metric Tons) 26,350 27,060 27,803 603 603 602 26,953 27,663 28,405
28,554 602 29,155
29,313 601 29,914
30,076 601 30,677
30,863 601 31,464
18,200 590 600 19,390
18,456 623 602 19,681
18,701 633 603 19,936
18,946 640 603 20,189
19,196 652 603 20,450
19,447 663 602 20,712
19,699 676 602 20,976
19,950 688 601 21,239
20,200 700 601 21,502
20,451 712 601 21,764
20,701 725 601 22,026
4,501
5,269
5,669
6,044
6,493
6,940
7,419
7,907
8,402
8,903
9,428
14,830 265 15,095
14,950 470 15,420
15,148 471 15,618
15,346 475 15,821
15,548 477 16,026
15,752 477 16,229
15,956 477 16,433
16,159 477 16,636
16,362 478 16,840
16,565 478 17,044
16,767 479 17,246
475 470 945
479 471 950
502 475 978
515 477 992
524 477 1,001
537 477 1,014
554 477 1,031
570 478 1,048
585 478 1,064
603 479 1,082
625 480 1,105
14,151
14,470
14,641
14,830
15,024
15,216
15,402
15,588
15,776
15,961
16,141
3,285 111 3,396
3,322 131 3,453
3,366 132 3,498
3,410 131 3,542
3,455 131 3,587
3,501 131 3,632
3,546 131 3,677
3,591 130 3,721
3,636 130 3,766
3,681 130 3,811
3,726 129 3,856
105 131 236
107 132 238
108 131 239
109 131 241
111 131 242
112 131 243
114 130 244
116 130 246
117 130 247
119 129 248
120 129 249
3,161
3,215
3,258
3,301
3,345
3,388
3,432
3,476
3,519
3,563
3,606
234 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Brazilian Soybean Sector S Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
13,400
13,474
13,671
13,993
(Thousand Hectares) 14,415 14,933 15,420
15,884
16,351
16,829
17,214
2.58
2.59
2.63
2.66
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.69 2.73 2.76
2.79
2.83
2.86
2.89
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
34,500 430 34,930
34,962 590 35,552
35,925 596 36,521
37,231 599 37,830
(Thousand Metric Tons) 38,833 40,719 42,555 599 597 596 39,431 41,315 43,151
44,361 595 44,956
46,206 595 46,801
48,110 595 48,705
49,781 596 50,376
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
22,200 1,740 590 24,530
22,132 1,753 596 24,481
22,701 1,780 599 25,080
23,218 1,821 599 25,638
23,751 1,875 597 26,223
24,271 1,941 596 26,808
24,806 2,004 595 27,405
25,340 2,064 595 27,999
25,866 2,124 595 28,585
26,396 2,186 596 29,178
26,921 2,237 598 29,756
10,400
11,071
11,441
12,192
13,209
14,507
15,746
16,957
18,215
19,527
20,620
17,475 402 17,877
17,484 477 17,961
17,934 477 18,411
18,342 480 18,822
18,763 481 19,244
19,174 481 19,655
19,596 481 20,078
20,019 483 20,501
20,434 484 20,918
20,853 485 21,338
21,268 487 21,755
7,400 477 7,877
7,495 477 7,972
7,708 480 8,188
8,003 481 8,484
8,335 481 8,816
8,678 481 9,159
9,020 483 9,503
9,359 484 9,843
9,696 485 10,181
10,028 487 10,514
10,362 489 10,851
10,000
9,989
10,223
10,338
10,429
10,496
10,575
10,658
10,737
10,823
10,904
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4,137 200 4,337
4,205 207 4,412
4,313 208 4,521
4,411 208 4,619
4,513 207 4,720
4,612 207 4,818
4,713 206 4,919
4,815 205 5,020
4,915 205 5,119
5,015 204 5,219
5,115 204 5,319
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,060 207 3,267
3,140 208 3,348
3,202 208 3,410
3,273 207 3,480
3,340 207 3,546
3,407 206 3,613
3,475 205 3,681
3,545 205 3,750
3,617 204 3,821
3,695 204 3,899
3,773 204 3,977
1,070
1,064
1,111
1,139
1,174
1,206
1,238
1,270
1,298
1,321
1,342
Soybeans Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 235
Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1,061
1,069
1,059
1,063
(Thousand Hectares) 1,072 1,084 1,096
1,105
1,116
1,127
1,135
2.55
2.56
2.57
2.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.59 2.60 2.61
2.61
2.62
2.63
2.64
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,703 173 2,876
2,736 136 2,872
2,721 141 2,863
2,742 144 2,887
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,774 2,816 2,855 145 144 144 2,919 2,961 2,999
2,890 144 3,034
2,928 144 3,072
2,966 144 3,110
2,995 145 3,141
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,750 490 136 2,376
1,759 506 141 2,407
1,765 506 144 2,416
1,773 511 145 2,429
1,783 514 144 2,441
1,792 521 144 2,457
1,801 528 144 2,474
1,810 534 144 2,487
1,818 540 144 2,503
1,826 550 145 2,521
1,833 558 147 2,538
500
465
446
458
478
504
526
547
569
589
603
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,380 5 1,385
1,390 5 1,395
1,395 5 1,400
1,401 5 1,406
1,408 5 1,414
1,415 5 1,421
1,423 5 1,428
1,430 5 1,435
1,436 5 1,442
1,442 5 1,448
1,448 5 1,454
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,060 5 2,065
2,180 5 2,185
2,446 5 2,451
2,393 5 2,398
2,432 5 2,437
2,575 5 2,580
2,716 5 2,721
2,687 5 2,692
2,690 5 2,696
2,792 5 2,797
2,908 6 2,914
-680
-790
-1,051
-992
-1,024
-1,160
-1,293
-1,257
-1,254
-1,349
-1,460
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
297 11 308
299 12 311
300 12 312
301 12 314
303 12 315
305 12 317
306 12 318
308 12 320
309 12 321
310 12 322
312 12 323
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
276 12 288
280 12 292
285 12 297
289 12 301
294 12 306
298 12 310
302 12 314
307 12 319
311 12 323
316 12 328
320 12 332
20
19
15
12
9
7
4
1
-2
-5
-9
Soybeans Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
236 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Soybean Sector S Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
9,300
9,441
8,956
8,611
(Thousand Hectares) 8,501 8,638 8,792
8,949
9,078
9,303
9,512
1.66
1.68
1.70
1.72
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.74 1.76 1.78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.86
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
15,438 3,619 19,057
15,861 2,385 18,246
15,226 2,397 17,623
14,811 2,406 17,217
(Thousand Metric Tons) 14,792 15,203 15,650 2,420 2,439 2,462 17,212 17,642 18,112
16,107 2,484 18,592
16,521 2,502 19,023
17,117 2,519 19,636
17,691 2,537 20,229
Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
16,559 6,475 1,250 2,385 26,669
17,313 6,554 1,253 2,397 27,517
18,048 6,614 1,237 2,406 28,305
18,862 6,711 1,219 2,420 29,212
19,701 6,839 1,209 2,439 30,187
20,565 6,991 1,210 2,462 31,228
21,443 7,145 1,216 2,484 32,288
22,324 7,274 1,224 2,502 33,324
23,221 7,394 1,231 2,519 34,365
24,151 7,529 1,242 2,537 35,459
25,084 7,672 1,253 2,557 36,566
-7,650
-9,271
-10,682
-11,995
-12,976
-13,586
-14,177
-14,732
-15,342
-15,823
-16,337
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
13,150 0 13,150
13,739 0 13,739
14,312 0 14,312
14,947 0 14,947
15,600 0 15,600
16,273 0 16,273
16,954 0 16,954
17,637 0 17,637
18,331 0 18,331
19,050 0 19,050
19,770 0 19,770
Feed Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
13,935 0 13,935
14,482 0 14,482
15,078 0 15,078
15,543 0 15,543
16,186 0 16,186
16,744 0 16,744
17,376 0 17,376
17,903 0 17,903
18,590 0 18,590
19,123 0 19,123
19,732 0 19,732
-785
-743
-766
-596
-586
-471
-422
-266
-259
-73
37
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,720 280 3,000
2,861 195 3,056
2,999 250 3,249
3,151 250 3,401
3,309 250 3,559
3,472 250 3,722
3,639 250 3,889
3,807 250 4,057
3,979 250 4,229
4,157 250 4,407
4,337 250 4,587
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,405 195 3,600
3,522 250 3,772
3,655 250 3,905
3,822 250 4,072
4,031 250 4,281
4,250 250 4,500
4,493 250 4,743
4,728 250 4,978
4,961 250 5,211
5,242 250 5,492
5,511 250 5,761
-600
-716
-656
-671
-722
-778
-854
-921
-982
-1,085
-1,173
Soybeans Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 237
Eastern European Soybean S Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Soybeans Area Harvested
330
329
326
Yield
1.50
1.53
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
495 21 516
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
326
(Thousand Hectares) 326 326 326
326
327
327
327
1.55
1.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.60 1.62 1.65
1.67
1.69
1.71
1.73
503 16 519
505 16 522
513 16 529
(Thousand Metric Tons) 521 529 537 16 16 16 537 545 553
545 16 561
552 16 568
560 16 576
567 16 583
493 52 16 561
495 46 16 557
498 46 16 560
503 46 16 564
506 45 16 568
512 46 16 574
520 46 16 582
526 46 16 588
533 46 16 594
541 46 16 603
550 46 16 612
-54
-53
-54
-50
-46
-44
-44
-42
-41
-42
-44
385 135 520
386 130 516
389 131 520
392 131 523
395 132 527
400 132 531
406 132 538
410 132 542
416 132 548
422 132 555
429 133 562
2,800 130 2,930
2,804 131 2,935
2,795 131 2,927
2,864 132 2,996
2,905 132 3,037
2,929 132 3,061
2,957 132 3,089
3,000 132 3,133
3,053 132 3,186
3,093 133 3,226
3,148 133 3,281
-2,410
-2,419
-2,407
-2,472
-2,510
-2,530
-2,552
-2,590
-2,638
-2,671
-2,719
81 12 93
79 4 83
80 4 84
80 4 84
81 4 85
82 4 86
83 4 87
84 4 88
85 4 89
87 4 90
88 4 92
186 4 190
190 4 194
195 4 199
199 4 203
204 4 208
208 4 212
213 4 217
218 4 222
224 4 227
230 4 233
236 4 239
-97
-111
-115
-119
-123
-126
-130
-134
-138
-143
-148
238 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
European Union So oybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Soybeans Area Harvested
362
334
288
Yield
3.00
3.02
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
287
(Thousand Hectares) 279 279 280
280
283
286
290
3.04
3.06
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 3.08 3.10 3.12
3.14
3.16
3.18
3.20
1,086 692 1,778
1,009 536 1,545
876 708 1,584
879 710 1,589
(Thousand Metric Tons) 861 868 873 716 719 722 1,577 1,586 1,595
880 725 1,605
895 725 1,621
910 724 1,634
928 726 1,654
16,055 1,062 536 17,653
16,243 1,129 708 18,080
16,363 1,077 710 18,149
16,463 1,081 716 18,260
16,557 1,075 719 18,351
16,660 1,079 722 18,462
16,774 1,083 725 18,581
16,879 1,083 725 18,688
16,988 1,086 724 18,799
17,112 1,091 726 18,929
17,235 1,099 728 19,062
-15,951
-16,625
-16,656
-16,760
-16,864
-16,965
-17,076
-17,173
-17,268
-17,385
-17,498
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
12,719 756 13,475
12,995 590 13,585
13,090 555 13,645
13,170 562 13,732
13,245 574 13,820
13,328 584 13,912
13,419 594 14,012
13,504 602 14,105
13,591 607 14,198
13,690 611 14,301
13,788 616 14,404
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
27,871 590 28,461
28,822 555 29,377
28,395 562 28,957
28,674 574 29,248
29,415 584 29,999
29,732 594 30,326
29,783 602 30,385
29,802 607 30,409
30,062 611 30,673
30,177 616 30,792
30,260 623 30,883
-14,986
-15,793
-15,311
-15,516
-16,179
-16,414
-16,372
-16,304
-16,475
-16,491
-16,479
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,880 168 3,048
2,924 174 3,098
2,945 176 3,121
2,963 176 3,139
2,980 176 3,156
2,999 177 3,175
3,019 177 3,196
3,038 177 3,215
3,058 177 3,235
3,080 177 3,257
3,102 177 3,279
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,758 174 1,932
1,806 176 1,982
1,837 176 2,013
1,874 176 2,050
1,921 177 2,098
1,961 177 2,138
2,005 177 2,182
2,044 177 2,221
2,086 177 2,263
2,126 177 2,303
2,164 177 2,341
1,116
1,116
1,108
1,089
1,059
1,037
1,014
994
972
954
938
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 239
Former Soviet Unio on Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Soybeans Area Harvested
484
487
473
Yield
0.80
0.80
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
388 36 424
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
459
(Thousand Hectares) 450 446 443
439
436
434
431
0.81
0.81
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.81 0.81 0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
391 41 432
381 41 422
371 42 413
(Thousand Metric Tons) 365 362 361 42 41 41 406 404 402
359 41 400
357 41 399
357 41 398
355 41 397
436 30 41 507
432 45 41 518
435 41 42 518
439 34 42 514
442 26 41 510
448 22 41 511
455 21 41 518
460 19 41 520
467 17 41 525
475 18 41 535
483 20 42 545
-83
-86
-96
-102
-103
-108
-115
-120
-126
-137
-149
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
347 81 428
337 10 347
339 11 350
342 12 354
345 12 357
349 12 361
355 12 367
359 12 371
364 12 376
371 13 383
377 13 390
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
691 10 701
707 11 718
710 12 721
730 12 742
738 12 750
745 12 757
752 12 764
761 12 773
770 13 783
773 13 786
780 13 794
-273
-372
-371
-388
-393
-396
-397
-402
-406
-403
-404
64 20 84
60 14 74
61 14 74
61 14 75
62 13 75
63 13 75
64 12 76
64 11 76
65 11 76
67 10 77
68 10 78
220 14 234
223 14 236
227 14 240
230 13 243
234 13 246
237 12 249
240 11 252
244 11 255
249 10 259
256 10 266
263 10 273
-150
-162
-166
-168
-171
-174
-176
-179
-183
-189
-195
Net Trade
Net Trade
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
240 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Soybean Sec ctor Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
5,700
5,905
5,330
5,384
(Thousand Hectares) 5,542 5,708 5,908
6,091
6,286
6,454
6,619
0.96
0.97
0.97
0.98
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.98 0.99 0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.01
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
5,500 40 5,540
5,701 35 5,736
5,172 38 5,210
5,253 41 5,294
(Thousand Metric Tons) 5,435 5,627 5,854 44 47 50 5,479 5,674 5,904
6,064 53 6,117
6,288 56 6,344
6,486 59 6,545
6,681 62 6,743
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4,750 755 35 5,540
4,672 1,025 38 5,736
4,124 1,046 41 5,210
4,181 1,069 44 5,294
4,336 1,095 47 5,479
4,501 1,123 50 5,674
4,698 1,152 53 5,904
4,877 1,184 56 6,117
5,066 1,220 59 6,344
5,224 1,259 62 6,545
5,432 1,246 65 6,743
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3,720 0 3,720
3,644 0 3,644
3,216 0 3,216
3,261 0 3,261
3,382 0 3,382
3,511 0 3,511
3,665 0 3,665
3,804 0 3,804
3,951 0 3,951
4,075 0 4,075
4,237 0 4,237
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,220 0 1,220
1,244 0 1,244
1,276 0 1,276
1,309 0 1,309
1,342 0 1,342
1,377 0 1,377
1,411 0 1,411
1,447 0 1,447
1,483 0 1,483
1,519 0 1,519
1,556 0 1,556
2,500
2,400
1,940
1,952
2,040
2,134
2,253
2,357
2,468
2,556
2,681
855 30 885
841 30 871
742 30 772
752 30 782
781 30 811
810 30 840
846 30 876
878 30 908
912 30 942
940 30 970
978 30 1,008
1,635 30 1,665
1,668 30 1,698
1,715 30 1,745
1,760 30 1,790
1,805 30 1,835
1,849 30 1,879
1,895 30 1,925
1,941 30 1,971
1,987 30 2,017
2,036 30 2,066
2,085 30 2,115
-780
-827
-973
-1,008
-1,025
-1,039
-1,049
-1,063
-1,075
-1,096
-1,107
Soybeans Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 241
Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Soybeans Area Harvested
110
112
113
Yield
1.73
1.74
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
190 650 840
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
115
(Thousand Hectares) 116 118 119
121
122
124
125
1.76
1.77
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.78 1.80 1.81
1.82
1.84
1.85
1.87
195 560 755
199 561 760
203 558 761
(Thousand Metric Tons) 207 211 216 555 552 548 762 763 764
220 545 765
224 541 766
229 538 767
234 535 768
3,720 1,000 310 560 5,590
3,613 1,003 310 561 5,488
3,618 1,007 310 558 5,494
3,617 1,011 310 555 5,494
3,615 1,015 310 552 5,491
3,612 1,018 310 548 5,488
3,610 1,021 310 545 5,486
3,608 1,025 310 541 5,484
3,605 1,028 310 538 5,481
3,604 1,032 310 535 5,481
3,604 1,036 310 532 5,481
-4,750
-4,767
-4,766
-4,767
-4,771
-4,774
-4,777
-4,781
-4,784
-4,786
-4,787
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,890 546 3,436
2,807 576 3,383
2,811 579 3,389
2,810 578 3,388
2,808 576 3,384
2,806 574 3,379
2,804 571 3,375
2,802 569 3,371
2,801 566 3,367
2,800 564 3,364
2,799 562 3,361
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,760 576 4,336
3,716 579 4,295
3,682 578 4,261
3,681 576 4,257
3,680 574 4,253
3,675 571 4,246
3,661 569 4,230
3,654 566 4,220
3,649 564 4,213
3,644 562 4,206
3,636 561 4,197
-900
-912
-872
-869
-869
-866
-854
-849
-846
-842
-836
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
670 62 732
651 62 713
652 62 714
652 62 714
651 62 713
651 62 713
650 62 712
650 62 712
649 62 711
649 62 711
649 62 711
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
685 62 747
685 62 747
686 62 748
686 62 748
686 62 748
686 62 748
685 62 747
684 62 746
683 62 745
682 62 744
681 62 743
-26
-27
-28
-28
-28
-27
-26
-25
-24
-21
-13
Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
242 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
South Korean Soyb bean Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
90
86
81
79
(Thousand Hectares) 78 77 76
75
74
73
72
Yield
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.52
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.53 1.53 1.53
1.53
1.54
1.54
1.54
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
135 100 235
131 110 241
124 96 220
120 100 221
(Thousand Metric Tons) 118 118 116 104 107 110 223 225 226
114 113 227
113 116 229
113 119 232
111 122 233
1,350 440 35 110 1,935
1,388 448 35 96 1,967
1,428 450 35 100 2,013
1,463 453 35 104 2,056
1,498 457 35 107 2,096
1,524 460 35 110 2,129
1,546 464 35 113 2,158
1,572 468 35 116 2,191
1,603 471 35 119 2,228
1,630 475 35 122 2,261
1,652 478 35 125 2,291
-1,700
-1,726
-1,793
-1,835
-1,874
-1,905
-1,932
-1,964
-1,999
-2,029
-2,058
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,075 320 1,395
1,105 300 1,405
1,137 304 1,441
1,166 303 1,468
1,193 297 1,490
1,214 288 1,502
1,232 280 1,512
1,253 274 1,527
1,277 268 1,545
1,299 261 1,560
1,317 256 1,573
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,045 300 2,345
2,177 304 2,482
2,267 303 2,570
2,345 297 2,642
2,391 288 2,679
2,428 280 2,708
2,490 274 2,764
2,577 268 2,844
2,653 261 2,914
2,706 256 2,962
2,759 253 3,012
-950
-1,077
-1,128
-1,174
-1,189
-1,206
-1,252
-1,317
-1,369
-1,402
-1,439
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
237 30 267
236 27 263
243 27 270
249 27 276
255 27 282
259 27 286
263 27 290
267 27 294
272 27 299
277 27 304
281 27 308
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
355 27 382
373 27 400
369 27 396
365 27 392
364 27 391
367 27 394
376 27 403
390 27 417
409 27 436
434 27 461
458 27 485
-120
-137
-126
-116
-109
-108
-113
-122
-136
-157
-177
Soybeans Area Harvested
Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 243
Taiwanese Soybean n Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Yield
2.01
2.03
2.04
2.06
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.07 2.09 2.10
2.12
2.13
2.14
2.16
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2 121 123
2 133 135
2 131 134
2 129 131
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2 2 2 128 127 127 130 129 129
2 126 128
2 126 128
2 125 127
2 124 126
2,050 275 15 133 2,473
2,046 284 15 131 2,477
2,045 288 15 129 2,476
2,044 291 15 128 2,478
2,042 295 15 127 2,479
2,041 299 15 127 2,483
2,040 305 15 126 2,487
2,039 312 15 126 2,492
2,038 319 15 125 2,497
2,038 326 15 124 2,503
2,036 334 15 124 2,509
-2,350
-2,342
-2,343
-2,347
-2,349
-2,354
-2,357
-2,363
-2,369
-2,376
-2,383
Soybean Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,630 39 1,669
1,638 39 1,677
1,636 39 1,675
1,635 39 1,674
1,635 39 1,673
1,634 38 1,672
1,633 38 1,671
1,632 38 1,670
1,631 37 1,669
1,631 37 1,668
1,629 37 1,666
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,680 39 1,719
1,694 39 1,733
1,679 39 1,718
1,672 39 1,710
1,660 38 1,699
1,647 38 1,685
1,631 38 1,669
1,626 37 1,664
1,624 37 1,661
1,623 37 1,660
1,622 36 1,658
-50
-56
-43
-36
-26
-13
2
6
7
8
8
Soybean Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
340 80 420
339 60 399
339 61 400
339 59 398
339 57 396
339 56 394
338 54 392
338 52 391
338 51 389
338 49 387
338 48 386
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
410 60 470
415 61 476
419 59 479
424 57 481
428 56 484
433 54 487
438 52 491
444 51 495
450 49 499
456 48 504
462 47 509
-50
-76
-79
-83
-88
-93
-98
-104
-110
-117
-123
Soybeans Area Harvested
Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
(Thousand Hectares) 1 1
244 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products World rapeseed price drops by 5 percent in 2001/02, due to a 4.6 percent increase in production and a 3.5 percent decline in world soybean prices. A modest 1 percent annual growth in rapeseed production, coupled with the soybean price recovery, leads to an average annual price increase of 2 percent through the end of the baseline. After a decline of 1.7 mha in 2000/01, world rapeseed area regains 1.3 mha in 2001/02. Over the long term, rapeseed area grows slowly, by about 0.5 percent annually to 25 mha by 2010/11. Production and crush grow just over 1 percent annually, to 39.7 mmt and 37.3 mmt, respectively, by 2010/11 World rapeseed trade declines more than 1 mmt in 2000/01, mainly due to the 1.2 mmt reduction in China’s imports. In the long run, rapeseed trade is projected to grow at an annual rate of about 1 percent to 5.2 mmt by 2010/11. High relative returns in canola in 1998/99 and 1999/00 favored greater Canadian oilseed plantings and reduced wheat and barley area. Insufficient demand led to a buildup of 2 mmt of stocks in 1999/00. High stocks and falling prices in 1999/00 reduce canola area by 15 percent in 2000/01. However, Canadian canola area stabilizes at 4.9 mha in 2001/02 and increases over the remainder of the projection period by 1.2 percent per year. The reduction in oilseed area payments in 2000/01 causes rapeseed to become less attractive to European farmers. Area harvested declines by 12 percent from its all time high of 3.6 mha in 1999/00. As a result of the ban on animal protein meals, a 2.5 percent increase in demand for rapeseed meal boosts rapeseed area in 2001/02 by 2 percent. Equalization of cereal and oilseed compensatory payments abolishes crop-specific payments for oilseeds by 2002/03, and, in response, EU rapeseed area declines by 5 percent, to 3 mha in 2010/11. Rapeseed oil is used widely in industry and as a cooking oil in China, India, and other developing countries. Increasing incomes in these countries drive the growth in demand for rapeseed oil. Chinese rapeseed imports hit a record of 3.7 mmt, making China the largest rapeseed importer in 1999/00. By contrast, China’s trade in rapeseed oil has fallen, partly as a consequence of government actions to limit imports in order to protect domestic crushers. Chinese rapeseed imports fall to 2.5 mmt in 2000/01, due to high carryover stocks and strong domestic production. Import volumes remain near this level throughout the baseline. Chinese rapeseed oil imports increase from 65 tmt in 2000/01 to 800 tmt by 2010/11. Oil consumption in Japan is dominated by soybean oil and rapeseed oil, which are largely consumed as blended oils. Japan is the second largest rapeseed importer, with imports growing to 2.4 mmt by 2010/11. Rapeseed oil is the primary vegetable oil consumed in India. As population and incomes increase, India remains the largest importer of rapeseed oil, increasing imports from 370 tmt in the current year to 803 tmt by 2010/11.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 245
Rapeseed Trade 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Exporters Canada Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Rest of World
4,200 394 115 -165
3,202 372 150 599
3,202 380 167 833
3,323 379 179 948
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,364 3,423 3,491 393 392 397 192 205 219 964 921 896
3,573 398 233 865
3,632 404 247 813
3,734 410 263 737
3,837 414 276 639
Total Net Exports
4,544
4,322
4,582
4,829
4,913
4,942
5,003
5,069
5,097
5,143
5,166
2,500 -56 0 2,100
2,065 74 0 2,184
2,274 152 0 2,156
2,407 196 0 2,227
2,443 246 0 2,224
2,409 274 0 2,259
2,424 305 0 2,275
2,436 327 0 2,306
2,459 319 0 2,319
2,452 342 0 2,350
2,485 308 0 2,373
Total Net Imports
4,544
4,322
4,582
4,829
4,913
4,942
5,003
5,069
5,097
5,143
5,166
Prices Cash Vancouver CIF Hamburg
192 190
180 181
184 184
183 184
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 197 200 210 194 197 204
214 207
225 216
227 217
233 222
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Exporters Canada China Eastern European Former Soviet Union India
1,215 880 370 19 100
1,313 632 217 18 556
1,300 543 237 20 521
1,329 568 241 21 502
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,407 1,444 1,478 550 592 605 245 264 279 23 28 31 440 412 347
1,514 644 290 35 307
1,584 637 301 38 235
1,592 671 313 41 182
1,606 691 328 44 119
Total Net Exports
2,584
2,736
2,621
2,661
2,666
2,740
2,741
2,789
2,794
2,799
2,787
798 100 1,686
995 23 1,719
896 20 1,705
974 -3 1,690
1,080 -3 1,589
1,122 -27 1,646
1,090 -38 1,689
1,099 -59 1,749
1,108 -69 1,754
1,134 -89 1,755
1,120 -103 1,770
2,584
2,736
2,621
2,661
2,666
2,740
2,741
2,789
2,794
2,799
2,787
148
142
143
141
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 147 148 151
150
154
153
153
Net Importers China European Union India Japan
05/06
Rapeseed Meal Trad ade
Net Importers European Union Japan Rest of World Total Net Imports Price FOB Hamburg
05/06
246 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Rapeseed Oil Trade e Net Exporters Canada Eastern European European Union Japan Total Net Exports
Net Importers China Former Soviet Union India Rest of World Total Net Imports Price FOB Hamburg
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
760 -15 507 -4
801 21 516 -1
811 14 496 -5
824 15 477 0
(Thousand Metric Tons) 857 893 921 9 11 10 461 452 452 -14 -8 -11
940 10 453 -8
970 6 458 -13
986 4 455 -6
1,003 0 456 -6
1,248
1,338
1,316
1,316
1,314
1,349
1,371
1,395
1,421
1,439
1,452
65 116 374 693
195 125 189 829
261 130 265 660
327 131 331 527
396 133 411 374
477 133 477 262
543 134 557 137
610 135 628 22
673 138 713 -103
733 143 790 -228
791 148 803 -291
1,248
1,338
1,316
1,316
1,313
1,348
1,370
1,395
1,420
1,438
1,452
328
338
345
358
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 379 396 419
441
466
486
509
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 247
Rapeseed Area Harvested Million Hectares 25
20
15
10
5
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
EU
China
2000/01 India
2002/03
Canada
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Eastern Europe
Rapeseed Yield Metric Tons per Hectare
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95 EU
1996/97
1998/99
China
2000/01 India
2002/03 Canada
2004/05
Eastern Europe
2010/11
248 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Rapeseed Trade Million Metric Tons 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
Canada
1998/99
China
Japan
2000/01 EU
2002/03
Rest of World
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Eastern Europe
Rapeseed Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent 8
Dollars per Metric Ton 350
7
325
6
300
5
275
4
250
3
225
2
200
1
175
0
150 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Stock-to-Use Ratio
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
Rapeseed, CIF Hamburg
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 249
Rapeseed Meal Trade Dollars per Metric Ton
Million Metric Tons 3.0
200
2.5
180
2.0
160 140
1.5
120
1.0
100
.5
80
.0
60
-.5
40
-1.0
20
-1.5
0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
Canada India EU
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
China Japan Rapeseed Meal, FOB Hamburg Price
Rape Meal Utilization Million Metric Tons 25
20
15
10
5
0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
China
2000/01
Canada
EU
2002/03 India
2004/05 Japan
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
250 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Rapeseed Oil Trade and Price Dollars per Metric Ton 700
Million Metric Tons 2.0 1.5
600
1.0
500
.5 400 .0 300 -.5 200
-1.0
100
-1.5 -2.0
0 1990/91
1992/93 EU
1994/95
1996/97
Canada
1998/99 China
2000/01 India
2002/03
2004/05
Other
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Rapeseed Oil, FOB Hamburg
Rapeseed Oil Per Capita Consumption Kilograms per Year 25
20
15
10
5
0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97 India
1998/99 China
2000/01
2002/03
Canada
2004/05 EU
2006/07
Japan
2008/09
2010/11
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 251
Canadian Canola Se Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4,816
4,861
4,846
4,940
(Thousand Hectares) 4,992 5,084 5,152
5,227
5,291
5,376
5,450
1.48
1.49
1.50
1.51
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.52 1.53 1.54
1.55
1.56
1.57
1.58
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
7,119 2,065 9,184
7,243 1,084 8,327
7,269 1,110 8,380
7,460 1,116 8,576
(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,588 7,779 7,935 1,125 1,114 1,117 8,713 8,894 9,051
8,101 1,112 9,214
8,254 1,114 9,368
8,440 1,109 9,549
8,611 1,116 9,726
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,200 700 1,084 4,984
3,308 707 1,110 5,125
3,357 705 1,116 5,178
3,413 716 1,125 5,253
3,514 721 1,114 5,349
3,623 731 1,117 5,470
3,711 738 1,112 5,561
3,780 746 1,114 5,641
3,875 753 1,109 5,736
3,937 762 1,116 5,815
4,000 770 1,119 5,889
4,200
3,202
3,202
3,323
3,364
3,423
3,491
3,573
3,632
3,734
3,837
1,830 11 1,841
1,952 31 1,983
1,980 32 2,013
2,013 33 2,046
2,073 33 2,106
2,137 32 2,170
2,189 32 2,222
2,230 32 2,263
2,286 32 2,319
2,323 32 2,355
2,360 32 2,393
595 31 626
637 32 670
680 33 713
683 33 717
667 32 699
693 32 725
711 32 743
716 32 749
703 32 735
731 32 763
754 33 787
1,215
1,313
1,300
1,329
1,407
1,444
1,478
1,514
1,584
1,592
1,606
1,345 23 1,368
1,390 29 1,419
1,410 29 1,439
1,433 29 1,463
1,476 29 1,505
1,522 29 1,551
1,558 29 1,588
1,588 29 1,617
1,627 29 1,657
1,654 29 1,683
1,680 29 1,709
579 29 608
588 29 617
598 29 628
609 29 638
618 29 648
628 29 657
638 29 667
648 29 677
658 29 687
668 29 697
678 29 707
760
801
811
824
857
893
921
940
970
986
1,003
Canola Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Canola Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Canola Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
05/06
252 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Rapeseed Sector S Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
7,400
7,519
7,297
7,187
(Thousand Hectares) 7,117 7,133 7,096
7,085
7,050
7,053
7,015
1.49
1.51
1.53
1.55
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.57 1.59 1.61
1.63
1.65
1.67
1.69
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
11,026 0 11,026
11,354 0 11,354
11,164 0 11,164
11,140 0 11,140
(Thousand Metric Tons) 11,174 11,341 11,425 0 0 0 11,174 11,341 11,425
11,548 0 11,548
11,633 0 11,633
11,778 0 11,778
11,855 0 11,855
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
12,300 1,200 0 13,500
12,157 1,236 0 13,393
12,243 1,169 0 13,412
12,385 1,136 0 13,521
12,475 1,115 0 13,591
12,604 1,120 0 13,723
12,713 1,109 0 13,822
12,852 1,105 0 13,958
12,971 1,095 0 14,066
13,108 1,096 0 14,204
13,229 1,084 0 14,313
-2,500
-2,065
-2,274
-2,407
-2,443
-2,409
-2,424
-2,436
-2,459
-2,452
-2,485
Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
7,650 0 7,650
7,537 0 7,537
7,591 0 7,591
7,678 0 7,678
7,735 0 7,735
7,814 0 7,814
7,882 0 7,882
7,968 0 7,968
8,042 0 8,042
8,127 0 8,127
8,202 0 8,202
Feed Use Industrial Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,400 4,370 0 6,770
2,540 4,365 0 6,905
2,669 4,379 0 7,048
2,793 4,317 0 7,110
2,911 4,273 0 7,184
3,030 4,192 0 7,222
3,152 4,125 0 7,277
3,272 4,052 0 7,324
3,389 4,016 0 7,405
3,503 3,953 0 7,456
3,614 3,897 0 7,511
880
632
543
568
550
592
605
644
637
671
691
Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4,125 0 4,125
4,078 0 4,078
4,106 0 4,106
4,153 0 4,153
4,183 0 4,183
4,225 0 4,225
4,262 0 4,262
4,307 0 4,307
4,347 0 4,347
4,392 0 4,392
4,432 0 4,432
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4,190 0 4,190
4,273 0 4,273
4,367 0 4,367
4,480 0 4,480
4,579 0 4,579
4,702 0 4,702
4,804 0 4,804
4,918 0 4,918
5,020 0 5,020
5,125 0 5,125
5,222 0 5,222
-65
-195
-261
-327
-396
-477
-543
-610
-673
-733
-791
Rapeseed Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 253
Eastern European Rapeseed R Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Rapeseed Area Harvested
970
972
969
Yield
2.14
2.16
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,080 25 2,105
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
974
(Thousand Hectares) 976 984 988
994
998
1,005
1,008
2.18
2.20
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.22 2.24 2.26
2.28
2.30
2.32
2.34
2,099 13 2,112
2,112 14 2,126
2,143 14 2,156
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,167 2,205 2,234 14 14 14 2,182 2,218 2,247
2,267 14 2,281
2,296 14 2,310
2,331 14 2,345
2,359 14 2,373
1,641 57 13 1,711
1,669 57 14 1,740
1,675 57 14 1,746
1,706 57 14 1,777
1,717 57 14 1,788
1,755 58 14 1,827
1,779 58 14 1,850
1,810 58 14 1,883
1,833 58 14 1,905
1,862 59 14 1,935
1,886 59 14 1,959
394
372
380
379
393
392
397
398
404
410
414
Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
963 26 989
985 14 999
988 16 1,004
1,006 16 1,023
1,013 17 1,030
1,035 17 1,052
1,049 17 1,067
1,068 17 1,086
1,082 18 1,100
1,099 18 1,117
1,113 20 1,132
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
605 14 619
766 16 782
751 16 767
765 17 782
768 17 785
771 17 789
770 17 787
777 18 796
780 18 799
784 20 804
784 20 804
370
217
237
241
245
264
279
290
301
313
328
Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
608 31 639
651 36 687
653 36 689
665 36 701
670 36 705
684 35 720
694 35 729
706 35 741
715 35 750
726 35 761
736 34 770
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
618 36 654
630 36 666
639 36 675
651 36 686
661 35 697
673 35 708
684 35 719
697 35 731
709 35 744
722 34 757
736 34 770
-15
21
14
15
9
11
10
10
6
4
0
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
254 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Ra apeseed Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2,664 492 3,156
2,700 517 3,217
2,507 663 3,170
2,495 654 3,149
(Thousand Hectares) 2,464 2,458 2,442 643 638 632 3,107 3,096 3,074
2,429 634 3,063
2,423 634 3,057
2,409 638 3,047
2,414 638 3,052
2.92
2.94
2.96
2.97
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.99 3.01 3.03
3.05
3.06
3.08
3.10
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
9,223 373 9,596
9,453 155 9,608
9,370 147 9,517
9,364 146 9,510
(Thousand Metric Tons) 9,296 9,319 9,308 149 148 150 9,445 9,467 9,458
9,331 150 9,481
9,367 151 9,518
9,390 150 9,540
9,460 151 9,611
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
8,822 563 155 9,540
8,952 583 147 9,682
8,948 575 146 9,669
8,982 575 149 9,706
8,974 568 148 9,690
9,023 568 150 9,741
9,047 565 150 9,762
9,093 564 151 9,808
9,124 563 150 9,837
9,169 562 151 9,882
9,205 563 151 9,919
56
-74
-152
-196
-246
-274
-305
-327
-319
-342
-308
Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
5,144 234 5,378
5,192 117 5,309
5,190 89 5,278
5,210 89 5,299
5,205 92 5,297
5,233 93 5,326
5,247 94 5,342
5,274 95 5,369
5,292 97 5,389
5,318 97 5,415
5,339 99 5,438
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
6,059 117 6,176
6,216 89 6,304
6,085 89 6,174
6,180 92 6,272
6,284 93 6,377
6,353 94 6,448
6,336 95 6,431
6,371 97 6,468
6,400 97 6,498
6,451 99 6,549
6,458 100 6,558
-798
-995
-896
-974
-1,080
-1,122
-1,090
-1,099
-1,108
-1,134
-1,120
Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3,509 374 3,883
3,626 329 3,955
3,624 335 3,959
3,638 335 3,972
3,634 335 3,970
3,654 335 3,989
3,664 334 3,999
3,683 333 4,016
3,695 331 4,026
3,714 329 4,042
3,728 327 4,055
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,047 329 3,376
3,103 335 3,438
3,129 335 3,463
3,160 335 3,495
3,174 335 3,508
3,203 334 3,537
3,214 333 3,547
3,231 331 3,562
3,240 329 3,568
3,260 327 3,587
3,274 326 3,599
507
516
496
477
461
452
452
453
458
455
456
Rapeseed Area Harvested Industrial Area Harvested Total Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 255
Former Soviet Unio on Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Rapeseed Area Harvested
780
818
817
Yield
0.78
0.81
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
610 23 633
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
817
(Thousand Hectares) 812 817 817
820
820
824
823
0.83
0.86
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.88 0.91 0.93
0.96
0.98
1.01
1.03
658 18 676
678 18 696
699 18 717
(Thousand Metric Tons) 715 739 760 19 18 18 733 757 779
783 18 802
804 18 822
828 18 846
848 19 866
470 30 18 518
477 32 18 527
479 32 18 529
488 32 19 538
492 32 18 542
502 32 18 553
509 32 18 559
518 32 18 569
525 32 18 575
533 32 19 584
540 32 19 590
115
150
167
179
192
205
219
233
247
263
276
Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
265 6 271
267 5 272
268 5 273
273 5 278
275 5 280
281 5 286
285 5 290
290 5 295
294 5 299
298 5 304
302 5 307
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
247 5 252
249 5 254
249 5 254
252 5 257
252 5 257
253 5 258
254 5 259
256 5 261
256 5 261
257 5 263
258 5 264
19
18
20
21
23
28
31
35
38
41
44
Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
177 13 190
172 12 184
172 12 184
176 12 188
177 12 189
181 12 193
183 12 195
187 12 198
189 12 201
192 12 203
194 12 206
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
294 12 306
298 12 310
302 12 314
306 12 318
310 12 322
314 12 326
317 12 329
321 12 333
327 12 338
335 12 346
343 12 354
-116
-125
-130
-131
-133
-133
-134
-135
-138
-143
-148
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
256 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Rapeseed Se ector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
5,500
6,521
6,647
6,813
(Thousand Hectares) 6,911 7,076 7,181
7,339
7,455
7,620
7,756
0.80
0.81
0.81
0.81
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.82 0.82 0.83
0.83
0.84
0.84
0.85
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4,400 0 4,400
5,250 0 5,250
5,382 0 5,382
5,549 0 5,549
(Thousand Metric Tons) 5,660 5,828 5,947 0 0 0 5,660 5,828 5,947
6,113 0 6,113
6,243 0 6,243
6,416 0 6,416
6,565 0 6,565
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,900 500 0 4,400
4,750 500 0 5,250
4,882 500 0 5,382
5,049 500 0 5,549
5,160 500 0 5,660
5,328 500 0 5,828
5,447 500 0 5,947
5,613 500 0 6,113
5,743 500 0 6,243
5,916 500 0 6,416
6,065 500 0 6,565
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,600 0 2,600
3,169 0 3,169
3,258 0 3,258
3,370 0 3,370
3,444 0 3,444
3,557 0 3,557
3,637 0 3,637
3,748 0 3,748
3,835 0 3,835
3,951 0 3,951
4,051 0 4,051
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,500 0 2,500
2,614 0 2,614
2,737 0 2,737
2,868 0 2,868
3,004 0 3,004
3,145 0 3,145
3,290 0 3,290
3,441 0 3,441
3,600 0 3,600
3,769 0 3,769
3,931 0 3,931
100
556
521
502
440
412
347
307
235
182
119
Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,277 0 1,277
1,557 21 1,578
1,601 21 1,622
1,656 20 1,676
1,693 19 1,712
1,748 18 1,766
1,788 17 1,805
1,842 16 1,858
1,885 16 1,901
1,942 16 1,958
1,991 16 2,007
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,630 21 1,651
1,746 21 1,767
1,868 20 1,888
1,988 19 2,007
2,105 18 2,123
2,226 17 2,243
2,345 16 2,361
2,470 16 2,486
2,598 16 2,614
2,733 16 2,749
2,795 16 2,811
-374
-189
-265
-331
-411
-477
-557
-628
-713
-790
-803
Rapeseed Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 257
Japanese Rapeseed d Sector Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Yield
2.01
2.01
2.01
2.02
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.02 2.02 2.02
2.02
2.03
2.03
2.03
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2 236 238
2 232 234
2 232 234
2 199 201
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2 2 2 198 202 203 200 204 205
2 205 207
2 206 208
2 209 211
2 209 211
2,100 5 232 2,337
2,181 5 232 2,418
2,186 5 199 2,390
2,224 5 198 2,428
2,218 5 202 2,425
2,256 5 203 2,463
2,270 5 205 2,480
2,302 5 206 2,513
2,312 5 209 2,526
2,346 5 209 2,560
2,369 5 211 2,585
-2,100
-2,184
-2,156
-2,227
-2,224
-2,259
-2,275
-2,306
-2,319
-2,350
-2,373
Rapeseed Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,180 36 1,216
1,227 51 1,278
1,230 51 1,280
1,252 50 1,303
1,248 51 1,299
1,270 50 1,321
1,278 50 1,328
1,297 50 1,347
1,303 50 1,353
1,323 49 1,372
1,336 50 1,385
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,265 51 1,316
1,250 51 1,301
1,250 50 1,300
1,249 51 1,300
1,246 50 1,296
1,243 50 1,293
1,241 50 1,290
1,238 50 1,288
1,235 49 1,285
1,233 50 1,283
1,232 50 1,282
-100
-23
-20
3
3
27
38
59
69
89
103
Rapeseed Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
880 61 941
899 60 959
895 60 955
905 59 965
896 59 956
906 59 966
906 59 965
914 59 973
912 59 971
920 59 980
924 59 983
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
885 60 945
900 60 959
900 59 959
906 59 965
910 59 970
914 59 973
918 59 977
922 59 981
925 59 984
927 59 986
930 59 989
-4
-1
-5
0
-14
-8
-11
-8
-13
-6
-6
Rapeseed Area Harvested
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
(Thousand Hectares) 1 1
258 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Sunflower Seed and Products Sunflower seed area in the world’s major producing countries grows from 14.5 mha in 2000/01 to 15.1 mha in 2010/11. During the same period, total sunflower trade rises from 2.1 mmt to 2.9 mmt. The sunflower seed price lost 43 percent from its peak in 1997/98, and it is anticipated to decrease another 2.1 percent in 2001/02. A substantial reduction in Argentine area initiates a price recovery in 2002/03. Sunflower meal prices are stable throughout the projection period, growing by only 3 percent over the entire decade. After declining 50 percent since 1997/98, the sunflower oil price starts to recover in 2000/01 and increases by 5 percent annually during the projection period. Argentina and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) remain the dominant world producers of sunflower seeds and products. Together they currently produce 62 percent of the world’s sunflower seeds and account for 92 percent of sunflower seed exports. By 2010/11, increased exports from Eastern Europe reduce the Argentine and FSU share of sunflower seed exports to 89 percent, but their share of world production is expected to rise to 65 percent. Unattractive prices prompt Argentine farmers to reduce their sunflower acreage in 2000/01 by 37 percent, mostly in favor of soybeans. The low sunflower production reduces Argentine sunflower seed exports in 2000/01 by 80 percent. Prices are expected to stabilize in 2002/03, generating a modest increase in area. Over the baseline, prices increase by 14 percent, and Argentine sunflower seed area responds by expanding 12 percent. Argentina crushes over 90 percent of its sunflower production domestically and exports 90 percent of its sunflower meal production and 65 percent of its sunflower oil production. These ratios stay constant throughout the baseline. The world sunflower meal market is dominated by sales from Argentina to the European Union, which account for about 80 percent of world trade. After a 30 percent reduction in trade volume in 2000/01, total sunflower meal trade grows 1 percent annually during the projection period. Argentina accounts for 66 percent of sunflower oil exports, while the FSU is a distant second with 26 percent. An 18 percent increase in domestic consumption causes exports from the FSU to decrease by 30 percent during the projection period, which reduces the FSU’s export share to 18 percent in 2010/11. Sunflowers are the dominant oilseed in the FSU. Sunflower area in the FSU shot up by 27 percent to 8.8 mha in 1999/00, but plantings of this magnitude cannot be sustained. Soil exhaustion, a stable demand for corn, and an excess supply on the Russian sunflower seed market put downward pressure on sunflower area in 2000/01, lowering plantings to 7.6 mha. The sunflower area recovers to 8 mha over the baseline. Many large, old Russian crushing plants are plagued by a shortage of capital; problems with storage, transportation, and marketing; debt; and a lack of market orientation. These problems are not expected to be resolved quickly, and the share of domestic sunflower seed production that is crushed declines by 4 percent over the projection period.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 259
Sunflower Seed Tra ade 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Exporters Argentina Eastern European Former Soviet Union
108 169 1,861
138 346 1,640
172 350 1,824
214 348 1,934
(Thousand Metric Tons) 235 258 271 351 350 345 1,972 2,016 2,054
287 341 2,091
300 336 2,125
324 334 2,178
341 329 2,222
Total Net Exports
2,138
2,125
2,346
2,496
2,558
2,625
2,670
2,720
2,761
2,836
2,892
-4 1,763 379
26 2,286 -188
20 2,478 -152
14 2,457 25
-1 2,551 7
-22 2,617 30
-40 2,685 26
-54 2,747 27
-71 2,803 30
-85 2,875 46
-100 2,926 66
2,138
2,125
2,346
2,496
2,558
2,625
2,670
2,720
2,761
2,836
2,892
194
190
191
193
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 200 205 208
212
217
220
221
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Exporters Argentina China Eastern European Former Soviet Union
1,570 0 91 335
1,427 0 128 350
1,436 0 135 287
1,456 0 117 271
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,482 1,510 1,534 0 0 0 113 125 129 282 306 320
1,556 0 124 326
1,584 0 124 344
1,605 0 123 358
1,626 0 117 368
Total Net Exports
1,996
1,905
1,858
1,843
1,876
1,940
1,983
2,006
2,053
2,086
2,111
1,705 291
1,780 125
1,711 147
1,746 97
1,852 25
1,851 89
1,837 147
1,821 185
1,820 233
1,827 260
1,817 294
1,996
1,905
1,858
1,843
1,876
1,940
1,983
2,006
2,053
2,086
2,111
123
121
120
119
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 122 125 126
125
128
128
127
Net Importers China European Union Rest of World Total Net Imports
CIF Lower Rhine Price
05/06
Sunflower Meal Tra ade
Net Importers European Union Rest of World Total Net Imports
CIF Rotterdam Price
05/06
260 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Sunflower Oil Trade e 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Net Exporters Argentina European Union Former Soviet Union
1,080 121 423
954 105 448
958 121 363
975 124 361
Total Net Exports
1,624
1,507
1,442
0 -9 1,633
-4 24 1,487
1,624
371
Net Importers China Eastern Europe Rest of World Total Net Imports
FOB NW Europe Price
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 995 1,019 1,044 133 149 168 360 362 368
1,066 189 367
1,090 214 358
1,111 230 334
1,131 243 304
1,460
1,488
1,531
1,580
1,622
1,662
1,676
1,678
0 34 1,409
2 35 1,424
4 38 1,446
5 37 1,488
7 37 1,536
8 38 1,575
10 40 1,612
10 42 1,623
12 47 1,620
1,507
1,442
1,460
1,488
1,530
1,579
1,622
1,662
1,675
1,678
385
391
408
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 430 454 479
504
532
556
580
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 261
Sunflower Area Harvested Million Hectares 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
Argentina
1998/99
China
EU
2000/01
2002/03
Eastern Europe
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2008/09
2010/11
Former Soviet Union
Sunflower Yield Metric Tons per Hectare
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95 Argentina
1996/97
1998/99
China
2000/01 EU
2002/03
2004/05
Eastern Europe
2006/07
Former Soviet Union
262 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Sunflower Trade Million Metric Tons 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95 Argentina
1996/97 EU
1998/99
2000/01
Eastern Europe
2002/03
2004/05
Former Soviet Union
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Rest of World
Sunflower Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton
Percent 7
350
6
300
5
250
4
200
3
150
2
100
1
50 0
0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Stock-to-Use Ratio
Sunflower, CIF Lower Rhine Price
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 263
Sunflower Meal Exports Million Metric Tons
Dollars per Metric Ton
3.0
160
2.5
140 120
2.0
100 1.5 80 1.0 60 .5
40
.0
20
-.5
0 1990/91
1992/93
Argentina
1994/95
1996/97
Eastern Europe
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
Former Soviet Union
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Sunflower Meal, CIF Rotterdam Price
Sunflower Meal Imports Million Metric Tons 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 .5 .0 -.5 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99 EU
2000/01
2002/03
Rest of World
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
264 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Sunflower Oil Trade and Price Dollars per Metric Ton
Million Metric Tons 2.5
800
2.0
700
1.5 600 1.0 500
.5 .0
400
-.5
300
-1.0 200 -1.5 100
-2.0 -2.5
0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Argentina
EU
Eastern Europe
Former Soviet Union
Rest of World
Sun Oil, FOB NW Europe Price
Sunflower Oil Per Capita Consumption Kilograms per Year 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
Argentina
1996/97 China
1998/99 EU
2000/01
2002/03
Eastern Europe
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
Former Soviet Union
2010/11
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 265
Argentine Sunflowe er Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2,200
2,220
2,239
2,277
(Thousand Hectares) 2,303 2,337 2,365
2,392
2,419
2,450
2,476
1.76
1.78
1.80
1.81
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.83 1.84 1.86
1.87
1.89
1.90
1.92
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3,833 133 3,966
3,951 100 4,051
4,019 105 4,124
4,121 106 4,227
(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,203 4,299 4,388 107 105 103 4,310 4,404 4,491
4,473 103 4,576
4,560 103 4,662
4,655 102 4,757
4,741 102 4,843
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,700 58 100 3,858
3,750 58 105 3,913
3,787 59 106 3,952
3,847 59 107 4,013
3,911 59 105 4,075
3,983 60 103 4,146
4,056 60 103 4,219
4,125 61 103 4,289
4,199 61 102 4,362
4,268 61 102 4,432
4,337 62 104 4,503
108
138
172
214
235
258
271
287
300
324
341
1,690 93 1,783
1,575 73 1,648
1,591 74 1,665
1,616 75 1,691
1,642 76 1,718
1,673 75 1,748
1,704 75 1,779
1,733 75 1,808
1,764 76 1,839
1,793 76 1,868
1,822 76 1,898
140 73 213
147 74 221
154 75 229
159 76 235
161 75 236
163 75 238
169 75 245
176 76 252
180 76 255
187 76 263
195 77 272
1,570
1,427
1,436
1,456
1,482
1,510
1,534
1,556
1,584
1,605
1,626
1,610 69 1,679
1,500 48 1,548
1,515 48 1,563
1,539 48 1,587
1,564 48 1,612
1,593 47 1,640
1,622 47 1,669
1,650 46 1,696
1,680 46 1,725
1,707 45 1,752
1,735 45 1,780
551 48 599
546 48 594
557 48 605
564 48 612
569 47 616
574 47 621
580 46 626
585 46 631
590 45 635
597 45 642
604 44 648
1,080
954
958
975
995
1,019
1,044
1,066
1,090
1,111
1,131
Sunflower Seed Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
05/06
266 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Sunflower Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Sunflower Seed Area Harvested
850
823
816
Yield
1.53
1.55
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,300 0 1,300
Crush Food Use Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
808
(Thousand Hectares) 803 802 801
798
798
796
794
1.57
1.59
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.61 1.63 1.65
1.67
1.69
1.71
1.73
1,276 0 1,276
1,281 0 1,281
1,284 0 1,284
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,293 1,308 1,321 0 0 0 1,293 1,308 1,321
1,332 0 1,332
1,348 0 1,348
1,360 0 1,360
1,374 0 1,374
935 295 66 0 1,296
944 293 66 0 1,302
947 289 65 0 1,301
953 281 64 0 1,298
956 273 63 0 1,292
961 264 61 0 1,286
967 254 60 0 1,281
973 246 59 0 1,278
980 239 57 0 1,276
987 232 56 0 1,275
994 224 55 0 1,274
4
-26
-20
-14
1
22
40
54
71
85
100
Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
540 0 540
547 0 547
549 0 549
553 0 553
555 0 555
557 0 557
561 0 561
564 0 564
568 0 568
572 0 572
577 0 577
Feed Use Industrial Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
476 64 0 540
481 77 0 558
486 78 0 564
491 78 0 569
496 79 0 575
501 80 0 581
506 81 0 587
511 81 0 592
516 82 0 598
521 83 0 604
526 84 0 610
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
205 0 205
208 0 208
208 0 208
210 0 210
210 0 210
211 0 211
213 0 213
214 0 214
216 0 216
217 0 217
219 0 219
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
205 0 205
203 0 203
208 0 208
211 0 211
214 0 214
217 0 217
219 0 219
222 0 222
225 0 225
228 0 228
230 0 230
0
4
0
-2
-4
-5
-7
-8
-10
-10
-12
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 267
Eastern European Sunflower S Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1,843
1,914
1,909
1,919
(Thousand Hectares) 1,928 1,942 1,954
1,964
1,975
1,988
1,997
1.09
1.21
1.22
1.23
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.24 1.25 1.26
1.27
1.28
1.29
1.30
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,007 98 2,105
2,316 25 2,341
2,329 27 2,356
2,360 27 2,387
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,390 2,427 2,462 28 27 27 2,418 2,455 2,490
2,494 28 2,522
2,527 28 2,556
2,564 28 2,592
2,596 29 2,625
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,801 74 25 1,900
1,848 120 27 1,995
1,854 125 27 2,007
1,881 131 28 2,039
1,904 136 27 2,067
1,936 141 27 2,104
1,969 147 28 2,145
1,999 153 28 2,181
2,032 160 28 2,220
2,062 167 29 2,258
2,092 175 30 2,297
169
346
350
348
351
350
345
341
336
334
329
Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
902 13 915
924 7 931
927 7 934
940 7 948
952 8 960
968 8 975
985 8 992
1,000 8 1,007
1,016 8 1,024
1,031 8 1,039
1,046 8 1,054
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
817 7 824
795 7 803
792 7 800
823 8 831
840 8 847
843 8 850
855 8 863
876 8 883
891 8 899
908 8 916
928 8 937
91
128
135
117
113
125
129
124
124
123
117
Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
717 91 808
739 47 786
742 47 788
752 47 799
762 46 808
774 46 820
788 45 833
800 45 844
813 44 857
825 44 868
837 43 880
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
752 47 799
764 47 810
776 47 822
787 46 834
800 46 846
812 45 857
825 45 870
838 44 883
853 44 897
867 43 911
884 43 927
9
-24
-34
-35
-38
-37
-37
-38
-40
-42
-47
Sunflower Seed Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
268 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Su unflower Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1,907 58 1,965
1,899 62 1,961
1,870 78 1,948
1,901 76 1,977
(Thousand Hectares) 1,845 1,826 1,809 73 72 71 1,918 1,898 1,880
1,792 71 1,862
1,784 71 1,855
1,767 71 1,838
1,763 71 1,834
1.88
1.65
1.66
1.68
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.70 1.72 1.74
1.75
1.77
1.79
1.81
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3,688 575 4,263
3,228 319 3,547
3,241 128 3,369
3,324 130 3,455
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,261 3,260 3,264 139 143 147 3,400 3,403 3,411
3,267 151 3,418
3,287 154 3,441
3,291 154 3,445
3,316 157 3,474
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
5,200 413 319 5,932
5,193 513 128 5,834
5,201 516 130 5,847
5,249 523 139 5,911
5,289 520 143 5,952
5,350 522 147 6,019
5,420 524 151 6,096
5,484 527 154 6,165
5,560 530 154 6,244
5,631 532 157 6,320
5,702 536 161 6,399
-1,763
-2,286
-2,478
-2,457
-2,551
-2,617
-2,685
-2,747
-2,803
-2,875
-2,926
Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,655 146 2,801
2,700 122 2,822
2,705 133 2,838
2,729 135 2,865
2,750 140 2,890
2,782 141 2,923
2,818 143 2,961
2,852 145 2,997
2,891 147 3,038
2,928 147 3,076
2,965 149 3,114
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4,384 122 4,506
4,469 133 4,602
4,414 135 4,549
4,471 140 4,611
4,600 141 4,741
4,632 143 4,775
4,653 145 4,798
4,670 147 4,817
4,711 147 4,858
4,753 149 4,902
4,780 151 4,932
-1,705
-1,780
-1,711
-1,746
-1,852
-1,851
-1,837
-1,821
-1,820
-1,827
-1,817
Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,154 254 2,408
2,181 205 2,386
2,184 241 2,426
2,204 240 2,445
2,221 242 2,463
2,247 238 2,485
2,276 233 2,509
2,303 225 2,528
2,335 213 2,548
2,365 198 2,563
2,395 187 2,582
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,082 205 2,287
2,040 241 2,282
2,064 240 2,304
2,078 242 2,320
2,092 238 2,330
2,103 233 2,336
2,116 225 2,341
2,126 213 2,339
2,136 198 2,334
2,146 187 2,333
2,162 177 2,339
121
105
121
124
133
149
168
189
214
230
243
Sunflower Seed Area Harvested Industrial Area Harvested Total Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 269
Former Soviet Unio on Sunflower Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
7,635
7,579
7,571
7,685
(Thousand Hectares) 7,719 7,774 7,825
7,870
7,915
7,973
8,023
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.04
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.05 1.06 1.07
1.08
1.08
1.09
1.10
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
7,814 285 8,099
7,792 178 7,970
7,844 179 8,023
8,023 177 8,200
(Thousand Metric Tons) 8,121 8,240 8,357 177 177 177 8,298 8,417 8,534
8,468 177 8,645
8,580 178 8,757
8,707 178 8,884
8,825 178 9,003
Crush Other Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use
5,341 439 178 5,958
5,429 722 179 6,329
5,296 725 177 6,198
5,353 736 177 6,266
5,407 742 177 6,326
5,473 750 177 6,401
5,546 758 177 6,481
5,612 765 178 6,554
5,681 774 178 6,633
5,743 786 178 6,707
5,805 798 178 6,780
1,861
1,640
1,824
1,934
1,972
2,016
2,054
2,091
2,125
2,178
2,222
Sunflower Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,204 5 2,209
2,226 5 2,231
2,171 5 2,176
2,195 5 2,200
2,217 5 2,222
2,244 5 2,249
2,274 5 2,279
2,301 5 2,306
2,329 5 2,334
2,355 5 2,360
2,380 5 2,385
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,869 5 1,874
1,876 5 1,881
1,884 5 1,889
1,924 5 1,929
1,935 5 1,940
1,939 5 1,944
1,954 5 1,959
1,975 5 1,980
1,985 5 1,990
1,997 5 2,002
2,012 5 2,017
335
350
287
271
282
306
320
326
344
358
368
Sunflower Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,170 97 2,267
2,226 89 2,315
2,171 89 2,260
2,195 89 2,284
2,217 89 2,305
2,244 89 2,333
2,274 88 2,362
2,301 88 2,389
2,329 88 2,417
2,355 88 2,443
2,380 88 2,468
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,755 89 1,844
1,778 89 1,867
1,808 89 1,897
1,834 89 1,922
1,857 89 1,946
1,882 88 1,971
1,906 88 1,995
1,934 88 2,022
1,971 88 2,059
2,021 88 2,108
2,075 88 2,163
423
448
363
361
360
362
368
367
358
334
304
Sunflower Seed Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
270 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Palm Oil Complex Malaysia and Indonesia are the major producers of palm oil and related products, accounting for more than 75 percent of total world production. Major importing countries include India, China, and the EU. Malaysian palm oil production increases from 11.40 mmt in 2000/01 to 14.55 mmt in 2010/11, and net exports increase from 9.35 mmt to 11.96 mmt by 2010/11. Indonesian palm oil production grows 66 percent over the baseline, and net exports increase more than 90 percent, reaching 6.97 mmt by 2010/11. India is the world’s largest importer of palm oil, importing 3.50 mmt in 2000/01. Growing income and population cause palm oil consumption in India to expand, driving imports up to 5.62 mmt by 2010/11. Palm oil imports receive more favorable treatment than other vegetable oils in China because palm oil is not produced domestically and does not compete directly with domestically produced soft oils. China’s palm oil imports increase from 1.50 mmt in the current year to 2.26 mmt by 2010/11. The EU accounts for the bulk of world trade in palm kernel meal. EU imports grew rapidly in the 1980s and early 1990s but have stabilized in recent years. EU palm kernel meal imports average 2.2 mmt over the baseline. EU palm oil and palm kernel oil imports grow 212 tmt and 82 tmt, respectively, by 2010/11.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 271
Palm Trade 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
9,350 3,595
9,853 4,234
10,201 4,304
12,945
14,087
1,500 2,215 3,500 5,595 135
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
10,565 4,638
(Thousand Metric Tons) 10,903 11,158 11,349 4,988 5,168 5,382
11,500 5,639
11,643 5,923
11,771 6,286
11,873 6,667
14,506
15,204
15,891
16,326
16,731
17,139
17,566
18,057
18,539
1,767 2,199 4,001 5,982 138
1,821 2,217 4,212 6,116 140
1,915 2,243 4,452 6,453 140
2,026 2,280 4,685 6,761 139
2,088 2,300 4,874 6,925 139
2,124 2,320 5,035 7,113 139
2,144 2,341 5,195 7,320 139
2,166 2,368 5,363 7,530 139
2,188 2,388 5,562 7,780 139
2,260 2,427 5,612 8,102 139
12,945
14,087
14,506
15,204
15,891
16,326
16,731
17,139
17,566
18,057
18,539
1,680 800 -314
1,780 830 -497
1,806 863 -578
1,876 957 -753
1,899 1,027 -797
1,945 1,049 -854
1,958 1,076 -897
1,991 1,102 -959
2,003 1,127 -962
2,025 1,149 -989
2,029 1,167 -1,003
2,166
2,113
2,091
2,081
2,128
2,139
2,136
2,134
2,168
2,185
2,193
2,222 -56
2,169 -56
2,147 -56
2,137 -56
2,184 -56
2,195 -56
2,192 -56
2,190 -56
2,224 -56
2,241 -56
2,249 -56
2,166
2,113
2,091
2,081
2,128
2,139
2,136
2,134
2,168
2,185
2,193
600 560
678 609
696 643
766 725
789 786
835 821
854 871
886 930
900 1,002
919 1,077
918 1,154
1,160
1,287
1,339
1,491
1,575
1,656
1,725
1,816
1,902
1,996
2,072
576 485 99
587 602 99
590 649 99
600 792 99
612 864 99
620 938 99
627 998 99
634 1,083 99
642 1,161 99
648 1,249 99
658 1,315 99
1,160
1,287
1,339
1,491
1,575
1,656
1,725
1,816
1,902
1,996
2,072
307 521 77
291 505 73
296 510 72
301 515 74
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 308 326 352 522 540 565 76 78 80
381 593 81
413 624 83
441 652 84
458 669 85
Palm Oil Net Exporters Malaysia Indonesia Total Net Exports Net Importers China European Union India Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports
Palm Kernel Meal Net Exporters Malaysia Indonesia Rest of World Total Net Exports Net Importers European Union Residual Total Net Imports
Palm Kernel Oil Net Exporters Malaysia Indonesia Total Net Exports Net Importers European Union Rest of World Residual Total Net Imports
CIF Rotterdam Prices Palm Oil Palm Kernel Oil Palm Kernel Meal
272 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Palm Oil Trade and Price Million Metric Tons
Dollars per Metric Ton
20
700
15
600
10
500
5
400
0
300
-5
200
-10
100
-15
0 1990/91
1992/93 Malaysia
1994/95
1996/97
India
1998/99
2000/01
Indonesia
2002/03
China
2004/05
EU
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Palm Oil, CIF Rotterdam Price
Palm Oil Per Capita Consumption Kilograms per Year 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97 China
1998/99 EU
2000/01
2002/03 India
2004/05
2006/07
Indonesia
2008/09
2010/11
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 273
Chinese Palm Oil Su Supply and Utilization Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1,500 0 1,500
1,767 0 1,767
1,821 0 1,821
1,915 0 1,915
2,026 0 2,026
2,088 0 2,088
2,124 0 2,124
2,144 0 2,144
2,166 0 2,166
2,188 0 2,188
2,260 0 2,260
1,500
1,767
1,821
1,915
2,026
2,088
2,124
2,144
2,166
2,188
2,260
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 110 111 111 110 111 111
0 109 109
0 108 108
0 107 107
0 105 105
European Union Pa alm Oil Supply and Utilization Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Palm Kernel Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Palm Kernel Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
0 109 109
0 105 105
0 110 110
0 109 109
2,219 105 2,324
2,225 110 2,335
2,252 109 2,361
2,275 110 2,385
2,309 111 2,420
2,329 111 2,439
2,350 109 2,460
2,371 108 2,479
2,399 107 2,505
2,419 105 2,525
2,456 105 2,561
-2,215
-2,230
-2,252
-2,276
-2,310
-2,328
-2,349
-2,370
-2,397
-2,418
-2,456
5 0 5
1 0 1
2 0 2
1 0 1
1 0 1
1 0 1
1 0 1
1 0 1
1 0 1
2 0 2
2 0 2
2,227 0 2,227
2,171 0 2,171
2,150 0 2,150
2,139 0 2,139
2,186 0 2,186
2,196 0 2,196
2,194 0 2,194
2,192 0 2,192
2,226 0 2,226
2,243 0 2,243
2,251 0 2,251
-2,222
-2,170
-2,148
-2,137
-2,185
-2,196
-2,193
-2,191
-2,224
-2,242
-2,249
5 10 15
2 1 3
4 2 6
3 2 5
2 2 4
2 2 4
2 2 4
3 2 4
3 2 5
4 2 6
4 2 6
590 1 591
596 2 597
603 2 605
611 2 612
621 2 623
628 2 630
636 2 638
643 2 645
652 2 654
659 2 661
669 2 671
-576
-594
-599
-608
-619
-627
-634
-641
-649
-655
-665
274 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Palm Oil Sup pply and Utilization Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
60 500 560
64 260 324
69 256 324
73 252 325
(Thousand Metric Tons) 77 81 86 250 248 247 328 330 332
90 244 334
94 242 337
99 240 339
103 238 341
3,800 260 4,060
4,069 256 4,325
4,285 252 4,537
4,527 250 4,777
4,764 248 5,012
4,957 247 5,203
5,123 244 5,367
5,287 242 5,530
5,459 240 5,700
5,663 238 5,901
5,717 236 5,953
-3,500
-4,001
-4,212
-4,452
-4,685
-4,874
-5,035
-5,195
-5,363
-5,562
-5,612
05/06
Indonesian Palm Oiil Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
6,800 255 7,055
7,619 435 8,054
8,062 397 8,459
8,559 434 8,993
(Thousand Metric Tons) 9,076 9,346 9,659 421 407 386 9,497 9,753 10,044
10,006 362 10,368
10,385 338 10,723
10,804 314 11,118
11,252 294 11,546
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,025 435 3,460
3,423 397 3,820
3,720 434 4,155
3,933 421 4,355
4,101 407 4,509
4,199 386 4,585
4,301 362 4,662
4,391 338 4,729
4,486 314 4,800
4,538 294 4,832
4,600 278 4,879
3,595
4,234
4,304
4,638
4,988
5,168
5,382
5,639
5,923
6,286
6,667
1,042 95 1,137
1,134 107 1,241
1,186 113 1,299
1,299 114 1,414
1,388 113 1,501
1,442 111 1,553
1,517 109 1,626
1,604 108 1,712
1,708 107 1,815
1,814 105 1,920
1,925 104 2,030
230 107 337
298 113 411
322 114 436
343 113 456
363 111 474
395 109 504
443 108 551
504 107 610
583 105 688
666 104 770
758 104 862
800
830
863
957
1,027
1,049
1,076
1,102
1,127
1,149
1,167
Palm Kernel Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
870 60 930
942 65 1,007
991 70 1,061
1,092 69 1,161
1,173 69 1,241
1,224 68 1,292
1,293 64 1,357
1,373 58 1,431
1,467 52 1,518
1,564 45 1,608
1,665 39 1,704
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
305 65 370
328 70 397
349 69 418
368 69 437
388 68 455
407 64 471
428 58 486
449 52 501
472 45 516
493 39 531
515 35 550
560
609
643
725
786
821
871
930
1,002
1,077
1,154
Net Trade
Palm Kernel Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Net Trade
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 275
Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization Palm Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Palm Kernel Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Palm Kernel Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11,400 1,330 12,730
11,792 1,550 13,342
12,205 1,554 13,758
12,640 1,557 14,197
(Thousand Metric Tons) 13,051 13,378 13,639 1,561 1,564 1,567 14,612 14,942 15,206
13,863 1,571 15,434
14,079 1,574 15,653
14,286 1,577 15,863
14,474 1,581 16,055
1,860 1,550 3,410
1,936 1,554 3,489
2,000 1,557 3,557
2,071 1,561 3,632
2,145 1,564 3,709
2,217 1,567 3,784
2,287 1,571 3,858
2,360 1,574 3,934
2,433 1,577 4,010
2,511 1,581 4,092
2,598 1,584 4,182
9,350
9,853
10,201
10,565
10,903
11,158
11,349
11,500
11,643
11,771
11,873
1,790 227 2,017
1,915 209 2,124
1,949 211 2,161
2,018 212 2,230
2,037 212 2,248
2,082 211 2,294
2,097 211 2,309
2,131 212 2,343
2,146 212 2,358
2,173 212 2,385
2,185 212 2,397
128 209 337
133 211 344
143 212 355
142 212 354
138 211 350
138 211 349
139 212 350
141 212 352
143 212 355
148 212 360
156 212 368
1,680
1,780
1,806
1,876
1,899
1,945
1,958
1,991
2,003
2,025
2,029
1,430 100 1,530
1,544 105 1,649
1,599 112 1,710
1,680 132 1,812
1,719 142 1,861
1,779 146 1,925
1,811 144 1,955
1,859 136 1,996
1,890 125 2,015
1,929 111 2,040
1,954 96 2,050
825 105 930
860 112 971
882 132 1,014
904 142 1,046
925 146 1,072
946 144 1,089
965 136 1,101
984 125 1,109
1,004 111 1,115
1,025 96 1,121
1,048 84 1,132
600
678
696
766
789
835
854
886
900
919
918
276 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Peanuts World peanut area grows 7 percent in the coming decade. Significant yield improvements in China increase total production by 22 percent over the baseline. The EU is, by far, the largest importer of peanuts and peanut meal. EU peanut imports account for roughly 40 percent of total peanut trade, and the EU is the only significant importer of peanut meal. China’s peanut area increases from 4.50 mha to 5.20 mha over the next decade, contributing to the 18.6 percent growth in production. China remains the largest peanut producer, producing 15.36 mmt at the end of the projection period. About half of Chinese peanut output is consumed directly as food and the other half is crushed. Both Chinese peanut meal and peanut oil production increase slightly. China’s food use of peanuts increases from 6.09 mmt to 8.36 mmt due to growth in income and population, while peanut crush rises slightly to 6.5 mmt. Growing Chinese demand for peanut oil is met largely by imports, which increase to 338 tmt in 2010/11. Unlike China, about 80 percent of the peanuts grown in India are processed for oil to meet the growing domestic demand for vegetable oils. More hectares of peanuts are harvested in India than in any other nation, with peanut area reaching 8.23 mha in 2010/11. However, total output reaches only 7.81 mmt in 2010/11, due to extremely low productivity.
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 277
Peanut Trade Peanut Net Exporters China India United States Total Net Exports Net Importers European Union Rest of World Total Net Imports
Peanut Meal Net Exporters China India United States Rest of World Total Net Exports Net Importers European Union Total Net Imports
Peanut Oil Net Exporters United States Rest of World Total Net Exports Net Importers China European Union Total Net Imports
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
400 260 219
387 553 244
375 826 261
374 685 259
880
1,183
1,463
421 459
444 739
880
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 381 393 406 572 468 398 261 262 261
419 317 262
431 235 262
444 162 263
457 -15 262
1,318
1,214
1,122
1,065
998
929
869
704
444 1,019
447 871
450 765
452 670
454 611
455 543
456 473
458 412
459 246
1,183
1,463
1,318
1,214
1,122
1,065
998
929
869
704
0 50 9 128
18 50 9 106
3 50 9 122
-5 50 9 129
-7 50 9 133
-4 50 9 131
-1 50 9 128
2 50 9 125
3 50 9 124
5 50 9 122
6 50 9 120
187
183
184
183
185
186
186
185
187
186
186
187
183
184
183
185
186
186
185
187
186
186
187
183
184
183
185
186
186
185
187
186
186
1 123
1 203
1 388
1 493
1 537
1 522
1 507
1 491
1 485
1 485
1 481
124
204
389
494
538
523
508
492
486
486
482
0 124
79 125
267 122
369 125
410 128
394 130
376 132
357 135
347 138
345 141
338 144
124
204
389
494
538
523
508
492
485
486
482
278 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Peanut Area Harvested Million Hectares 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99 China
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
India
United States
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Peanut Trade Million Metric Tons 2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
.5
.0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
Peanuts
2000/01
Peanut Meal
2002/03
2004/05
Peanut Oil
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 279
U.S. Peanut Supply y and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Peanut Area Harvested
532
584
614
Yield
2.80
2.94
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,491 559 2,051
Consumption Crush Ending Stocks Domestic Use
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
610
(Thousand Hectares) 615 616 617
619
620
621
622
2.94
2.96
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.97 2.98 3.00
3.01
3.02
3.03
3.05
1,719 369 2,088
1,808 355 2,163
1,805 374 2,179
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,826 1,838 1,849 373 375 375 2,199 2,213 2,224
1,862 374 2,236
1,874 374 2,247
1,884 373 2,257
1,895 373 2,267
1,462 310 369 1,831
1,489 312 355 1,844
1,528 326 374 1,902
1,547 326 373 1,920
1,563 328 375 1,938
1,576 329 375 1,951
1,589 330 374 1,962
1,600 331 374 1,974
1,611 332 373 1,985
1,622 334 373 1,995
1,633 334 372 2,005
Net Trade
219
244
261
259
261
262
261
262
262
263
262
Peanut Meal Production Consumption Ending Stocks Net Trade
133 132 5 9
134 125 5 9
140 131 5 9
140 131 5 9
141 132 5 9
141 132 5 9
142 133 5 9
142 133 5 9
143 134 5 9
143 134 5 9
144 135 5 9
Peanut Oil Production Consumption Ending Stocks Net Trade
100 102 13 1
101 94 19 1
105 103 19 1
105 104 19 1
106 105 20 1
106 105 20 1
106 105 20 1
107 106 20 1
107 106 20 1
108 106 20 1
108 107 20 1
280 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Chinese Peanut Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4,500
4,617
4,454
4,407
(Million Hectares) 4,452 4,561 4,680
4,796
4,904
5,013
5,120
2.89
2.82
2.84
2.86
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 2.88 2.90 2.92
2.94
2.96
2.98
3.00
Peanut Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
13,005 0 13,005
13,021 0 13,021
12,649 0 12,649
12,604 0 12,604
(Thousand Metric Tons) 12,821 13,226 13,667 0 0 0 12,821 13,226 13,667
14,100 0 14,100
14,516 0 14,516
14,939 0 14,939
15,361 0 15,361
Feed and Food Use Crush Ending Stocks Domestic Use
6,090 6,510 0 12,600
6,325 6,310 0 12,634
6,461 5,812 0 12,273
6,644 5,587 0 12,230
6,851 5,589 0 12,441
7,073 5,760 0 12,833
7,307 5,954 0 13,261
7,550 6,131 0 13,681
7,804 6,280 0 14,085
8,080 6,415 0 14,495
8,359 6,545 0 14,904
400
387
375
374
381
393
406
419
431
444
457
Peanut Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,543 0 2,543
2,461 0 2,461
2,267 0 2,267
2,179 0 2,179
2,180 0 2,180
2,246 0 2,246
2,322 0 2,322
2,391 0 2,391
2,449 0 2,449
2,502 0 2,502
2,552 0 2,552
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,543 0 2,543
2,443 0 2,443
2,264 0 2,264
2,184 0 2,184
2,187 0 2,187
2,251 0 2,251
2,323 0 2,323
2,390 0 2,390
2,446 0 2,446
2,497 0 2,497
2,546 0 2,546
0
18
3
-5
-7
-4
-1
2
3
5
6
Peanut Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,020 0 2,020
1,957 0 1,957
1,803 0 1,803
1,734 0 1,734
1,735 0 1,735
1,788 0 1,788
1,849 0 1,849
1,905 0 1,905
1,952 0 1,952
1,995 0 1,995
2,035 0 2,035
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,020 0 2,020
1,981 0 1,981
1,890 0 1,890
1,851 0 1,851
1,855 0 1,855
1,890 0 1,890
1,929 0 1,929
1,964 0 1,964
1,994 0 1,994
2,021 0 2,021
2,047 0 2,047
0
-79
-267
-369
-410
-394
-376
-357
-347
-345
-338
Peanut Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 281
European Union Pe eanut Supply and Utilization Peanut Area Harvested
Yield
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Crush Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Peanut Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Peanut Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
1
1
1
1
1.00
1.00
1.00
1 34 35
1 34 35
422 18 34 474
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1
1
1
1
1
1.00
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 1.00 1.00 1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1 36 37
1 36 37
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1 1 1 37 37 37 38 38 38
1 38 39
1 38 39
1 38 39
1 38 39
443 29 36 508
445 29 36 510
447 29 37 513
450 29 37 516
453 29 37 519
455 29 38 521
456 29 38 523
457 29 38 524
458 29 38 526
460 29 39 527
-421
-444
-444
-447
-450
-452
-454
-455
-456
-458
-459
8 2 10
15 0 15
15 0 15
15 0 15
15 0 15
15 0 15
15 0 15
15 0 15
15 0 15
15 0 15
15 0 15
197 0 197
198 0 198
199 0 199
197 0 197
199 0 199
200 0 200
201 0 201
200 0 200
201 0 201
201 0 201
200 0 201
-187
-183
-184
-183
-185
-186
-186
-185
-187
-186
-186
8 11 19
14 9 23
14 14 28
14 14 28
14 16 30
14 17 31
14 18 32
14 19 32
14 19 33
14 19 33
14 19 33
134 9 143
134 14 148
136 14 150
138 16 153
140 17 157
143 18 161
146 19 164
149 19 167
152 19 171
155 19 174
158 19 177
-124
-125
-122
-125
-128
-130
-132
-135
-138
-141
-144
(Million Hectares) 1 1
282 / World Oilseeds and Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Peanut Supp ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
8,100
7,914
8,231
8,182
(Million Hectares) 8,166 8,174 8,193
8,216
8,231
8,234
8,233
0.75
0.95
0.95
0.95
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 0.95 0.95 0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
Peanut Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
6,100 0 6,100
7,516 1 7,517
7,816 2 7,818
7,769 3 7,772
(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,752 7,758 7,775 4 6 7 7,756 7,763 7,781
7,796 8 7,803
7,808 9 7,817
7,810 10 7,821
7,807 11 7,819
Feed and Food Use Crush Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,495 4,344 1 5,840
1,596 5,367 2 6,965
1,611 5,378 3 6,992
1,624 5,459 4 7,087
1,636 5,542 6 7,184
1,649 5,640 7 7,296
1,662 5,714 8 7,384
1,676 5,802 9 7,487
1,689 5,883 10 7,582
1,704 5,943 11 7,658
1,714 6,107 12 7,833
260
553
826
685
572
468
398
317
235
162
-15
Peanut Meal Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,885 0 1,885
2,254 0 2,254
2,259 0 2,259
2,293 0 2,293
2,328 0 2,328
2,369 0 2,369
2,400 0 2,400
2,437 0 2,437
2,471 0 2,471
2,496 0 2,496
2,565 0 2,565
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,825 0 1,835
2,194 0 2,204
2,199 0 2,209
2,233 0 2,243
2,268 0 2,278
2,309 0 2,319
2,340 0 2,350
2,377 0 2,387
2,411 0 2,421
2,436 0 2,446
2,505 0 2,515
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
Peanut Oil Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,295 0 1,295
1,556 0 1,556
1,560 0 1,560
1,583 0 1,583
1,607 0 1,607
1,636 0 1,636
1,657 0 1,657
1,683 0 1,683
1,706 0 1,706
1,723 0 1,723
1,771 0 1,771
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,295 0 1,295
1,556 0 1,556
1,560 0 1,560
1,583 0 1,583
1,607 0 1,607
1,636 0 1,636
1,657 0 1,657
1,683 0 1,683
1,706 0 1,706
1,723 0 1,723
1,771 0 1,771
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Peanut Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade
Net Trade
Net Trade
05/06
WORLD COTTON
284 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Cotton World cotton prices, as reflected by the A-Index, close out the 2000/01 marketing year at $1,435/mt. This represents a significant rebound from last year’s $1,165/mt, which was the lowest in 15 years. While prices rebound in 2000/01, prices over the remainder of the projection period, although strengthening, are at the lower end of the historical price range. Brazilian cotton area rebounds to 0.89 mha in 2000/01 and shows strong growth, reaching 1.59 mha by 2010/11. The strong growth in cotton area is from new acreage in the Mato Grosso region. With the new area coming on-line, Brazilian production surges to 1.19 mmt by the end of the production period, most of which is projected to be consumed domestically. China continues to liquidate its stocks, with ending stocks falling to 3.28 mmt in 2000/01 and continuing to fall until 2005/06, bottoming out at 1.56 mmt. Stocks build moderately thereafter as production increases. In 2000/01, China returns to its position as a net importer, with 68,000 mt of cotton imports, well below the volume of much of the 1990s. As China completes its reduction in stock holding, its net imports are expected to grow, reaching 423,000 mt by 2001/02 and reaching 707,000 by 2010/11. World cotton consumption remains flat in 2000/01 at 20 mmt. Consumption growth in the first half of the projection period is moderately strong, with growth in excess of 1 percent annually, but it falls to just under 1 percent in the second half, matching population growth. Consumption growth during the projection period occurs primarily in countries with large cotton production, such as Australia, India, Pakistan, and, in the projection period, Brazil. Australian cotton area remained flat in 2000/01 at 0.47 mha. It shows moderate growth in the projection period, up to 0.60 mha by 2010/11, accompanied by a modest 0.45% annual yield growth.
World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 285
Cotton Trade 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Exporters Africa Argentina Australia India Other Former Soviet Union Other Latin America Other Middle East Pakistan Turkey United States Uzbekistan
795 106 698 -250 281 -99 229 90 -362 1,585 783
1,014 124 719 -258 222 -93 261 133 -397 1,845 738
1,021 141 741 -259 212 -93 270 -16 -402 1,880 745
1,026 154 770 -263 202 -97 277 -15 -409 1,901 749
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,033 1,040 1,046 163 169 172 794 817 839 -269 -277 -286 194 185 177 -102 -107 -113 283 288 293 -16 -17 -19 -417 -427 -438 1,934 1,970 2,005 751 751 749
1,052 174 861 -296 168 -120 297 -20 -449 2,038 747
1,057 176 883 -306 160 -127 300 -21 -461 2,071 745
1,062 177 905 -317 150 -134 303 -21 -473 2,102 743
1,067 180 926 -329 139 -142 305 -20 -486 2,130 740
Total Net Exports
3,857
4,308
4,241
4,295
4,347
4,392
4,425
4,452
4,476
4,495
4,510
Net Importers Brazil Canada China Eastern Europe European Union Japan Mexico Other Asia Other Western Europe Russia South Korea Taiwan Residual
142 75 68 196 576 245 432 1,223 35 353 296 215 0
271 76 423 199 530 251 403 1,205 36 343 304 266 0
220 77 393 199 500 260 421 1,223 36 346 300 265 0
162 78 495 200 482 261 426 1,239 36 355 299 263 0
109 79 590 201 466 257 433 1,256 36 360 298 262 0
76 79 657 202 454 252 438 1,274 36 364 297 262 0
53 80 698 203 445 248 443 1,295 36 366 297 261 0
38 80 718 206 438 244 450 1,317 36 367 297 261 0
31 81 725 209 430 241 458 1,341 36 366 296 261 0
28 82 721 214 423 238 466 1,367 36 365 296 260 0
27 82 707 222 415 235 474 1,394 36 363 295 260 0
Total Net Imports
3,857
4,308
4,241
4,295
4,347
4,392
4,425
4,452
4,476
4,495
4,510
1,435
1,511
1,533
1,544
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,566 1,588 1,607
1,626
1,645
1,667
1,691
1,237
1,221
1,227
1,238
1,295
1,313
1,332
1,353
Cotton Prices Cotlook A Index * CIF Northern Europe U.S. Farm Price
1,250
05/06
1,263
1,278
* The "A" index is the average of the fi five lowest CIF Northern European quotes of the following descriptions (Middling 1-3/32"): Memphis; Calif./Ar Ariz.; Mexican; Central American; Paraguayan; Turkish Izmir/Antalya; Central Asian; Pakistani 1503; Indian n H-4; Chinese 329; African 'Franc Zone'; Tanzanian; Greek; and Australian. Source: Cotlook, Ltd., Liverpool, Engla land.
286 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Cotton Net Exports Million Metric Tons 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
U.S. Exports
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Non U.S. Exports
World Cotton Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent
Dollars per Metric Ton 2,500
60
50
2,000
40 1,500 30 1,000 20 500
10
0
0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 ROW
U.S.
China
A-Index
World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 287
Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization Million Metric Tons 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 .0 -1.0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
Production
1998/99
2000/01
Consumption
2002/03
2004/05
Net Imports
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Ending Stocks
World Cotton Consumption Million Metric Tons 25
20
15
10
5
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Non Producers
2002/03 Producers
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
288 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Cotton Suppl ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
32,007
33,485
33,957
598
598
Production
19,156
Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Loss
Stock to Use Ratio
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
34,374
(Thousand Hectares) 34,669 34,888 35,053
35,183
35,289
35,381
35,469
601
605
(Kilograms per Hectare) 609 613 618
622
627
631
636
20,013
20,398
20,780
(Thousand Metric Tons) 21,105 21,394 21,651
21,887
22,113
22,331
22,547
8,077 19,999
7,684 20,366
7,423 20,620
7,288 20,875
7,263 21,091
7,316 21,301
7,411 21,516
7,538 21,721
7,679 21,932
7,844 22,126
8,029 22,323
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40.39
37.73
36.00
34.91
34.43
(Percent) 34.35
34.45
34.70
35.01
35.45
35.97
05/06
U.S. Cotton Supply y and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
5,300
5,738
5,569
5,534
(Thousand Hectares) 5,531 5,537 5,540
5,539
5,540
5,540
5,532
707
724
729
735
(Kilograms per Hectare) 740 744 749
753
757
761
766
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
3,749 854 4,603
4,154 883 5,037
4,060 1,003 5,062
4,067 999 5,066
(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,091 4,122 4,148 986 971 957 5,077 5,093 5,105
4,171 939 5,111
4,196 918 5,114
4,219 894 5,113
4,236 868 5,103
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,133 883 3,016
2,187 1,003 3,190
2,181 999 3,180
2,177 986 3,163
2,170 971 3,141
2,164 957 3,120
2,158 939 3,098
2,153 918 3,071
2,147 894 3,041
2,141 868 3,008
2,134 837 2,971
1,585
1,845
1,880
1,901
1,934
1,970
2,005
2,038
2,071
2,102
2,130
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade Loss
World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 289
African Cotton Supp pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
4,264
4,364
4,341
4,338
(Thousand Hectares) 4,339 4,344 4,351
4,357
4,360
4,364
4,368
321
376
377
378
(Kilograms per Hectare) 379 380 381
382
383
384
385
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,368 515 1,884
1,641 468 2,109
1,637 477 2,114
1,640 475 2,115
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,644 1,651 1,658 473 472 471 2,118 2,122 2,129
1,664 472 2,136
1,670 474 2,144
1,676 476 2,152
1,682 479 2,160
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
613 468 1,080
609 477 1,086
609 475 1,084
607 473 1,081
605 472 1,077
603 471 1,074
602 472 1,075
602 474 1,076
603 476 1,079
604 479 1,082
604 481 1,085
795
1,014
1,021
1,026
1,033
1,040
1,046
1,052
1,057
1,062
1,067
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade Loss
05/06
Argentine Cotton Supply Su and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
481
609
646
670
(Thousand Hectares) 680 682 683
684
685
685
688
Yield
420
390
394
399
(Kilograms per Hectare) 404 408 413
418
422
427
432
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
202 79 281
237 77 314
255 90 345
267 103 370
(Thousand Metric Tons) 274 279 282 114 122 126 389 400 408
286 130 416
289 133 422
293 136 429
297 139 437
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
97 77 174
97 90 188
99 103 202
100 114 215
102 122 223
103 126 230
105 130 235
107 133 240
108 136 245
110 139 249
112 143 255
106
124
141
154
163
169
172
174
176
177
180
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Net Trade Loss
290 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Australian Cotton Supply S and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
467
485
503
Yield
1,545
1,546
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
722 412 1,134
Area Harvested
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
517
(Thousand Hectares) 530 543 555
567
578
589
600
1,553
1,560
(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,567 1,574 1,581
1,588
1,595
1,603
1,610
749 414 1,163
781 424 1,205
807 443 1,250
(Thousand Metric Tons) 831 855 877 457 472 485 1,289 1,326 1,363
900 499 1,399
922 512 1,434
944 525 1,469
966 538 1,504
43 414 457
42 424 466
44 443 486
44 457 502
45 472 517
46 485 531
47 499 545
47 512 559
48 525 573
49 538 586
49 551 600
698
719
741
770
794
817
839
861
883
905
926
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
-22
05/06
Indian Cotton Supp ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
8,350
8,835
9,117
9,295
(Thousand Hectares) 9,395 9,456 9,498
9,524
9,540
9,552
9,562
310
315
318
320
(Kilograms per Hectare) 323 325 328
330
333
336
338
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,589 1,075 3,664
2,783 989 3,772
2,895 968 3,863
2,975 989 3,964
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,031 3,075 3,114 1,013 1,032 1,047 4,044 4,107 4,161
3,147 1,060 4,207
3,177 1,071 4,248
3,207 1,081 4,288
3,236 1,090 4,327
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,925 989 3,914
3,062 968 4,030
3,132 989 4,122
3,214 1,013 4,227
3,282 1,032 4,314
3,337 1,047 4,384
3,387 1,060 4,447
3,432 1,071 4,503
3,474 1,081 4,555
3,515 1,090 4,605
3,555 1,100 4,655
-250
-258
-259
-263
-269
-277
-286
-296
-306
-317
-329
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade Loss
World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 291
Other Former Sovie et Union Cotton Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
1,009
1,005
1,002
Yield
449
413
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
453 225 678
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Net Trade Loss
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
995
(Thousand Hectares) 984 973 963
953
944
935
926
413
413
(Kilograms per Hectare) 413 413 413
413
413
413
413
415 198 614
414 189 603
411 186 596
(Thousand Metric Tons) 406 402 398 184 183 182 590 585 580
394 181 575
390 181 571
386 181 567
383 181 564
199 198 397
202 189 391
206 186 391
210 184 394
214 183 397
218 182 400
222 181 403
226 181 406
230 181 411
236 181 417
243 182 425
281
222
212
202
194
185
177
168
160
150
139
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Other Latin America an Cotton Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
516
527
537
541
(Thousand Hectares) 542 542 541
539
537
535
532
Yield
433
440
440
440
(Kilograms per Hectare) 440 440 440
440
440
440
440
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
224 88 312
232 95 327
236 99 335
238 100 339
(Thousand Metric Tons) 238 238 238 102 103 103 340 341 341
237 103 341
236 103 340
235 103 338
234 103 337
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
315 95 410
321 99 420
327 100 427
333 102 435
339 103 442
344 103 447
350 103 454
357 103 460
363 103 466
369 103 472
376 103 478
-99
-93
-93
-97
-102
-107
-113
-120
-127
-134
-142
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Net Trade Loss
04/05
05/06
292 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other Middle Easter ern Cotton Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
551
563
570
1,000
1,013
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
551 148 699
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade Loss
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
574
(Thousand Hectares) 575 575 575
575
574
574
573
1,025
1,038
(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,051 1,064 1,078
1,091
1,105
1,118
1,132
571 168 738
585 169 753
595 172 768
(Thousand Metric Tons) 604 612 620 176 180 183 780 792 803
627 186 813
634 190 824
642 193 835
649 197 846
302 168 470
309 169 477
311 172 483
314 176 490
317 180 497
320 183 503
323 186 510
327 190 517
331 193 524
335 197 532
340 200 540
229
261
270
277
283
288
293
297
300
303
305
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
05/06
Pakistani Cotton Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
2,985
3,059
3,099
3,138
(Thousand Hectares) 3,172 3,199 3,223
3,247
3,269
3,292
3,314
605
580
584
588
(Kilograms per Hectare) 591 595 599
603
607
611
615
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,806 574 2,380
1,774 531 2,305
1,809 381 2,191
1,844 384 2,228
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,876 1,904 1,931 389 397 403 2,266 2,301 2,334
1,958 409 2,367
1,984 415 2,399
2,011 421 2,431
2,037 426 2,463
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,754 531 2,284
1,785 381 2,166
1,816 384 2,201
1,848 389 2,237
1,879 397 2,276
1,909 403 2,312
1,938 409 2,347
1,967 415 2,381
1,994 421 2,415
2,021 426 2,447
2,047 432 2,478
90
133
-16
-15
-16
-17
-19
-20
-21
-21
-20
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade Loss
World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 293
Turkish Cotton Sup pply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
670
702
714
1,202
1,147
805 180 985
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
719
(Thousand Hectares) 723 727 731
734
738
741
744
1,153
1,159
(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,164 1,170 1,176
1,182
1,188
1,194
1,200
806 150 956
823 146 969
833 148 981
(Thousand Metric Tons) 842 851 859 149 150 151 991 1,001 1,011
868 152 1,020
876 153 1,030
884 154 1,039
893 156 1,048
1,197 150 1,347
1,207 146 1,353
1,224 148 1,372
1,241 149 1,390
1,259 150 1,409
1,277 151 1,429
1,296 152 1,449
1,316 153 1,469
1,336 154 1,490
1,356 156 1,512
1,377 157 1,534
-362
-397
-402
-409
-417
-427
-438
-449
-461
-473
-486
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
05/06
Uzbekistani Cotton Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
1,415
1,410
1,421
1,427
(Thousand Hectares) 1,430 1,430 1,428
1,425
1,421
1,418
1,414
662
662
662
662
(Kilograms per Hectare) 662 662 662
662
662
662
662
937 182 1,119
934 140 1,074
941 140 1,081
945 140 1,085
(Thousand Metric Tons) 947 947 945 140 140 140 1,087 1,087 1,085
943 140 1,083
941 140 1,081
938 140 1,078
936 140 1,076
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
196 140 336
783
738
745
749
751
751
749
747
745
743
740
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
294 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Brazilian Cotton Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
892
1,004
1,152
1,275
(Thousand Hectares) 1,363 1,427 1,474
1,510
1,539
1,561
1,586
Yield
905
680
687
694
(Kilograms per Hectare) 702 709 716
724
732
739
747
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
807 340 1,147
683 345 1,027
791 344 1,135
886 378 1,264
(Thousand Metric Tons) 956 1,012 1,056 424 464 497 1,380 1,476 1,553
1,094 523 1,616
1,126 542 1,668
1,154 557 1,712
1,185 569 1,754
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
945 345 1,289
955 344 1,298
977 378 1,356
1,001 424 1,425
1,025 464 1,489
1,054 497 1,551
1,083 523 1,606
1,112 542 1,654
1,142 557 1,699
1,170 569 1,739
1,201 579 1,781
-142
-271
-220
-162
-109
-76
-53
-38
-31
-28
-27
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 5 5 5 5 5 5
5 5
5 5
5 5
5 5
Net Trade Loss
05/06
Canadian Cotton Su upply and Utilization
Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
5 5
5 5
5 5
5 5
75 5 80
76 5 81
77 5 82
78 5 83
79 5 84
79 5 84
80 5 85
80 5 85
81 5 86
82 5 87
82 5 87
75
76
77
78
79
79
80
80
81
82
82
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 295
Chinese Cotton Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Area Harvested
4,120
4,101
4,151
4,189
(Thousand Hectares) 4,229 4,267 4,300
4,332
4,364
4,395
4,426
Yield
1,031
1,038
1,045
1,052
(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,059 1,066 1,073
1,080
1,087
1,094
1,101
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4,248 3,277 7,525
4,257 2,612 6,868
4,338 2,258 6,596
4,407 1,908 6,315
(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,479 4,548 4,614 1,678 1,574 1,563 6,157 6,123 6,178
4,679 1,606 6,285
4,743 1,691 6,435
4,808 1,800 6,608
4,873 1,938 6,811
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4,981 2,612 7,593
5,033 2,258 7,291
5,082 1,908 6,989
5,132 1,678 6,810
5,173 1,574 6,747
5,216 1,563 6,780
5,270 1,606 6,876
5,312 1,691 7,003
5,360 1,800 7,160
5,391 1,938 7,329
5,418 2,101 7,519
-68
-423
-393
-495
-590
-657
-698
-718
-725
-721
-707
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Trade Loss
05/06
Eastern European Cotton C Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
17
17
18
18
(Thousand Hectares) 18 18 18
18
18
18
18
410
410
410
410
(Kilograms per Hectare) 410 410 410
410
410
410
410
7 73 79
7 67 75
7 64 71
7 62 69
(Thousand Metric Tons) 7 7 7 62 62 62 69 69 70
8 63 71
8 64 72
8 65 73
8 67 74
207 67 275
208 64 272
207 62 269
206 62 268
207 62 268
207 62 270
208 63 271
211 64 275
214 65 279
219 67 286
227 68 295
-196
-199
-199
-200
-201
-202
-203
-206
-209
-214
-222
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
296 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Co otton Supply and Utilization
Area Harvested
Yield
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
485
527
552
1,055
1,060
512 309 821
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
569
(Thousand Hectares) 580 588 594
598
602
606
609
1,065
1,069
(Kilograms per Hectare) 1,074 1,079 1,084
1,089
1,094
1,099
1,103
558 317 875
588 317 905
608 317 925
(Thousand Metric Tons) 623 634 643 317 317 317 940 951 960
651 317 968
659 317 975
665 317 982
672 317 989
1,065 317 1,382
1,073 317 1,390
1,073 317 1,389
1,075 317 1,392
1,074 317 1,391
1,073 317 1,390
1,073 317 1,390
1,074 317 1,391
1,074 317 1,391
1,073 317 1,390
1,072 317 1,389
-576
-530
-500
-482
-466
-454
-445
-438
-430
-423
-415
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 66 66 66 66 66 66
66 66
66 66
66 66
66 66
Japanese Cotton Su upply and Utilization
Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
66 66
66 66
66 66
66 66
245 66 310
251 66 316
260 66 326
261 66 326
257 66 322
252 66 318
248 66 314
244 66 310
241 66 306
238 66 303
235 66 300
-245
-251
-260
-261
-257
-252
-248
-244
-241
-238
-235
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 297
Mexican Cotton Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
74
117
144
1,059
951
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
78 93 172
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Area Harvested
Yield
Net Trade Loss
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
154
(Thousand Hectares) 159 162 163
164
163
163
162
955
959
(Kilograms per Hectare) 963 967 971
975
979
983
987
112 102 213
137 99 236
147 103 251
(Thousand Metric Tons) 153 156 158 106 109 111 259 265 270
160 113 273
160 115 275
160 117 277
160 119 278
496 102 598
512 99 611
549 103 652
565 106 671
578 109 687
587 111 698
594 113 707
602 115 717
610 117 727
619 119 738
627 121 747
-432
-403
-421
-426
-433
-438
-443
-450
-458
-466
-474
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Other Asian Cotton n Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Area Harvested
409
421
419
420
(Thousand Hectares) 417 416 414
415
415
415
413
Yield
239
240
240
241
(Kilograms per Hectare) 241 242 243
243
244
244
245
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
98 243 341
101 256 357
101 251 351
101 250 351
(Thousand Metric Tons) 101 101 101 250 250 251 351 351 351
101 251 352
101 252 353
101 252 354
101 253 354
1,286 256 1,542
1,290 251 1,541
1,303 250 1,553
1,319 250 1,569
1,335 250 1,585
1,354 251 1,604
1,374 251 1,625
1,397 252 1,648
1,421 252 1,673
1,446 253 1,699
1,474 253 1,727
-1,223
-1,205
-1,223
-1,239
-1,256
-1,274
-1,295
-1,317
-1,341
-1,367
-1,394
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
21
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
298 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other Western Euro opean Cotton Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
0 15 15
0 14 14
0 14 14
0 14 14
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
36 14 50
36 14 50
36 14 50
36 14 50
36 14 50
36 14 50
-35
-36
-36
-36
-36
0
0
0
0
Net Trade Loss
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 14 14 14 14 14 14
0 14 14
0 14 14
0 14 14
0 14 14
36 14 50
36 14 50
36 14 50
36 14 50
36 14 50
-36
-36
-36
-36
-36
-36
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 48 48 48 48 48 48
0 48 48
0 48 48
0 48 48
0 48 48
Russian Cotton Sup pply and Utilization
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0 37 37
0 48 48
0 48 48
0 48 48
342 48 390
343 48 391
346 48 395
355 48 403
360 48 408
364 48 412
366 48 414
367 48 415
366 48 415
365 48 413
363 48 411
-353
-343
-346
-355
-360
-364
-366
-367
-366
-365
-363
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
World Cotton: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 299
South Korean Cotto on Supply and Utilization
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
0 93 94
0 86 86
0 86 86
0 86 86
(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 86 86 86 86 86 86
0 86 86
0 86 86
0 86 86
0 86 86
304 86 390
305 86 391
301 86 387
299 86 385
298 86 384
298 86 384
297 86 383
297 86 383
297 86 383
296 86 382
295 86 381
-296
-304
-300
-299
-298
-297
-297
-297
-296
-296
-295
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 47 47 47 47 47 47
0 47 47
0 47 47
0 47 47
0 47 47
Taiwanese Cotton Supply S and Utilization
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade Loss
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0 75 75
0 47 47
0 47 47
0 47 47
243 47 290
266 47 314
265 47 312
263 47 310
262 47 309
262 47 309
261 47 309
261 47 308
261 47 308
260 47 308
260 47 307
-215
-266
-265
-263
-262
-262
-261
-261
-261
-260
-260
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
WORLD SUGAR
302 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Sugar An 8 percent decline in world sugar production in 2000/01 stimulates a 28 percent increase in the raw sugar price for 2000/01 compared to 1999/00. Sugar prices rise another 32 percent over the baseline, ending at 10.7¢/lb. After declining slightly in 2000/01, world sugar beet and sugarcane area increases throughout the projection period, as producers respond to higher prices. Sugar production increases from 126 mmt in 2000/01 to 150 mmt in 2010/11, an increase of 19 percent. After declining sharply in 2000/01, sugar trade increases more than 7 mmt by the end of the baseline. Brazilian sugarcane area increases steadily throughout the baseline in response to rising sugar prices. Low land prices and competitive production costs enable Brazil to maintain its position as the world’s largest supplier. Brazilian sugar exports approach 8 mmt by the end of the period. More sugarcane is diverted into alcohol production, especially during the short term as oil prices rise. Per capita sugar consumption continues to grow as consumers continue to favor more basic foodstuffs. Over the long term, the industrial use of sugar, which depends on income growth, is projected to strengthen as the Brazilian economy recovers from the recent crisis. Australian sugarcane area continues to grow over the baseline, though at a slower rate than that of the previous decade. Investment in infrastructure in the industry slows because world prices remain below levels that historically have elicited expansion. Adverse weather conditions have greatly reduced Australian sugar production in two of the last three years. As weather returns to more average conditions, production increases through area expansion and yield growth. Extensive marketing efforts by the Australian sugar industry have helped slow the per capita decline in consumption. However, per capita sugar consumption continues to decline, enabling Australian exports, destined primarily for Asian markets, to expand 1.4 mmt during the decade. Almost ideal weather conditions are helping Thailand’s sugar industry recover from difficulties suffered the last few years, which reduced exports. Industry recovery has been aided by government intervention to solve liquidity problems within the industry. Thai production increases by 0.8 mmt and raw sugar exports increase by 0.4 mmt. Slow growth in consumption and increased competition from high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in the soft drink and food industries result in a buildup of Thai ending stocks. Cuban sugarcane area in 2000/01 is expected to be the lowest in more than 20 years. Credit availability continues to be a problem in the sugar sector and is responsible for the substantial declines in yields. The Cuban government is hoping to stimulate investment through privatization; however, sugar prices as low as 10¢/lb are not enough to induce expansion. Over the baseline, moderate yield growth enables Cuban sugar exports to increase by more than 0.6 mmt. Mexico’s sugar production increases 1.2 mmt over the next decade in response to the sequential reduction in U.S. sugar TRQs under NAFTA, which allows Mexico increased access to the U.S. market. Sugar production in the FSU increases 0.4 mmt over the baseline but remains 55 to 65 percent below the level prior to the breakup. A continued decline in the cultural importance of sugar reduces the demand for imports; as a result, imports fall from 6.0 to 5.2 mmt.
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 303
Sugar Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Brazil Columbia Cuba European Union India Mexico Pakistan South Africa Thailand Total Net Exports
Net Importers Algeria Canada China Eastern Europe Egypt Former Soviet Union Indonesia Iran Japan Malaysia Morocco Peru Philippines South Korea Turkey United States Venezuela Rest of World Total Net Imports
Sugar Prices FOB Caribbean Price New York Spot
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
139 3,346 6,200 941 3,500 3,328 500 540 -700 1,395 3,800
117 4,054 6,912 946 3,272 3,803 732 756 -717 1,494 3,838
122 4,180 7,163 946 3,335 3,743 585 830 -709 1,466 3,917
122 4,279 7,358 947 3,395 3,693 504 841 -689 1,469 3,970
(Thousand Metric Tons) 121 120 115 4,362 4,435 4,504 7,515 7,597 7,647 948 955 965 3,456 3,523 3,596 3,744 3,849 3,984 458 437 434 839 837 832 -659 -627 -595 1,483 1,506 1,531 4,015 4,057 4,096
106 4,568 7,713 975 3,670 4,135 412 923 -569 1,553 4,128
99 4,631 7,721 982 3,751 4,294 404 1,010 -545 1,581 4,162
91 4,692 7,780 990 3,836 4,456 404 1,107 -529 1,608 4,193
84 4,752 7,810 999 3,926 4,619 415 1,212 -518 1,638 4,225
22,989
25,206
25,579
25,890
26,283
26,688
27,110
27,615
28,090
28,628
29,162
890 1,154 728 1,188 710 5,894 1,600 1,300 1,590 1,110 465 255 158 1,170 -400 1,460 15 4,382
968 1,150 1,342 1,325 725 6,061 1,970 1,376 1,583 1,142 523 246 249 1,234 82 1,549 126 4,236
968 1,153 1,207 1,363 741 6,003 2,194 1,448 1,571 1,169 549 241 254 1,272 135 1,709 134 4,147
970 1,161 1,083 1,361 764 5,938 2,342 1,513 1,565 1,199 570 242 261 1,315 166 1,820 136 4,165
973 1,172 1,031 1,344 786 5,894 2,451 1,577 1,558 1,231 588 247 267 1,363 189 1,928 134 4,228
980 1,184 1,080 1,320 807 5,795 2,539 1,639 1,550 1,262 603 255 266 1,408 207 2,047 130 4,297
990 1,197 1,186 1,297 827 5,672 2,590 1,701 1,544 1,295 617 266 263 1,453 222 2,176 126 4,369
1,001 1,215 1,278 1,284 855 5,604 2,635 1,767 1,540 1,331 630 280 262 1,503 240 2,266 122 4,481
1,012 1,233 1,434 1,272 880 5,495 2,649 1,833 1,536 1,367 641 297 260 1,549 257 2,354 117 4,584
1,023 1,256 1,614 1,267 908 5,401 2,684 1,902 1,535 1,405 653 316 258 1,597 276 2,451 112 4,650
1,035 1,279 1,841 1,266 933 5,273 2,742 1,972 1,534 1,412 663 336 256 1,642 294 2,555 107 4,702
22,989
25,206
25,579
25,890
26,283
26,688
27,110
27,615
28,090
28,628
29,162
177 407
185 406
193 401
199 396
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 204 211 219 392 388 383
221 379
226 375
229 371
235 368
304 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Sugar Stock-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Percent
Dollars per Metric Ton 350
35 30
300
25
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1996/97 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 Stock-to-Use Ratio
FOB Caribbean Price
World Sugar Beet and Sugarcane Area Harvested Million Hectares 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
Sugar Beet
2002/03
Sugarcane
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 305
Major Sugar Exporters Million Metric Tons 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99 Australia
2000/01 Brazil
2002/03
Cuba
EU
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
Thailand
Major Sugar Net Importers Million Metric Tons 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
South Korea
1998/99
Japan
2000/01
Indonesia
2002/03
2004/05
Former Soviet Union
2006/07
United States
2008/09
2010/11
306 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Sugar Supply y and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
6.38
6.46
6.47
6.48
(Million Hectares) 6.49 6.49 6.50
6.52
6.53
6.55
6.56
38.04
37.84
38.11
38.35
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 38.60 38.86 39.11
39.34
39.59
39.83
40.08
243
244
247
249
(Million Metric Tons) 250 252 254
257
259
261
263
Sugarcane Area Harvested
19.17
19.20
19.33
19.48
(Million Hectares) 19.61 19.72 19.83
19.97
20.09
20.21
20.32
Yield
63.20
65.45
66.27
66.90
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 67.48 68.03 68.57
69.11
69.62
70.12
70.61
Production
1,211
1,257
1,281
1,303
(Million Metric Tons) 1,323 1,341 1,360
1,380
1,399
1,417
1,435
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
126.22 38.05 164.27
129.95 34.44 164.39
132.67 32.61 165.27
135.00 31.66 166.67
137.21 31.16 168.37
139.35 30.85 170.19
141.51 30.64 172.14
143.81 30.49 174.30
146.00 30.40 176.41
148.32 30.30 178.62
150.59 30.19 180.78
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
129.83 34.44 164.27
131.79 32.61 164.39
133.61 31.66 165.27
135.51 31.16 166.67
137.52 30.85 168.37
139.56 30.64 170.19
141.65 30.49 172.14
143.89 30.40 174.30
146.11 30.30 176.41
148.42 30.19 178.62
150.73 30.05 180.78
22.99
25.21
25.58
25.89
26.28
26.69
27.11
27.61
28.09
28.63
29.16
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 307
U.S. Sugar Supply and a Utilization Sugar Beet Area Harvested
Yield
Production Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
558
598
604
52.90
47.80
29,503
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
604
(Thousand Hectares) 601 600 599
599
598
598
598
48.14
48.48
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 48.83 49.17 49.51
49.86
50.20
50.54
50.88
28,565
29,081
29,281
(Thousand Metric Tons) 29,335 29,483 29,667
29,844
30,014
30,215
30,406
403
412
416
416
(Thousand Hectares) 415 414 413
412
410
409
407
77.56
78.52
78.70
78.89
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 79.08 79.26 79.45
79.63
79.82
80.00
80.19
31,293
32,334
32,705
32,832
(Thousand Metric Tons) 32,834 32,823 32,803
32,776
32,745
32,709
32,667
7,746 2,013 9,759
7,968 1,816 9,785
8,086 1,814 9,900
8,129 1,966 10,094
8,135 2,136 10,271
8,154 2,287 10,441
8,177 2,445 10,622
8,198 2,623 10,821
8,217 2,786 11,003
8,240 2,929 11,169
8,262 3,062 11,324
9,402 1,816 11,218
9,520 1,814 11,334
9,644 1,966 11,609
9,779 2,136 11,914
9,912 2,287 12,199
10,043 2,445 12,488
10,174 2,623 12,798
10,301 2,786 13,087
10,428 2,929 13,357
10,557 3,062 13,620
10,690 3,189 13,879
-1,460
-1,549
-1,709
-1,820
-1,928
-2,047
-2,176
-2,266
-2,354
-2,451
-2,555
308 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Algerian Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
7
7
7
7
19.14
19.25
19.34
Production
134
135
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
10 157 167
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
Yield
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
7
7
7
7
7
19.43
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 19.52 19.61 19.70
19.78
19.87
19.96
20.04
135
136
(Thousand Metric Tons) 137 137 138
139
139
140
140
10 107 117
10 119 130
10 126 136
10 130 140
11 132 142
11 133 143
11 133 144
11 133 144
11 133 144
11 133 144
950 107 1,057
966 119 1,085
971 126 1,097
977 130 1,106
982 132 1,113
990 133 1,123
1,000 133 1,133
1,011 133 1,144
1,023 133 1,156
1,034 133 1,167
1,046 133 1,179
-890
-968
-968
-970
-973
-980
-990
-1,001
-1,012
-1,023
-1,035
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Hectares) 7 7
Argentine Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
265
271
269
268
(Thousand Hectares) 267 266 265
264
263
262
262
60.38
61.68
62.65
63.45
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 64.17 64.85 65.51
66.16
66.80
67.44
68.08
16,000
16,733
16,872
17,005
(Thousand Metric Tons) 17,130 17,249 17,368
17,487
17,595
17,703
17,806
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,530 263 1,793
1,673 124 1,797
1,696 128 1,824
1,717 127 1,845
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,739 1,759 1,775 125 123 120 1,864 1,882 1,895
1,791 117 1,908
1,805 115 1,920
1,820 113 1,933
1,834 110 1,944
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,530 124 1,654
1,553 128 1,681
1,575 127 1,702
1,597 125 1,722
1,620 123 1,743
1,642 120 1,762
1,663 117 1,780
1,687 115 1,802
1,709 113 1,821
1,731 110 1,842
1,753 108 1,861
139
117
122
122
121
120
115
106
99
91
84
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 309
Australian Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
411
418
422
90.26
92.20
37,097
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
424
(Thousand Hectares) 426 426 427
427
427
427
427
93.74
95.06
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 96.25 97.37 98.45
99.51
100.55
101.59
102.63
38,556
39,575
40,343
(Thousand Metric Tons) 40,967 41,511 42,010
42,482
42,940
43,390
43,835
4,600 531 5,131
5,012 790 5,802
5,153 754 5,907
5,261 731 5,992
5,350 716 6,066
5,430 706 6,135
5,503 699 6,202
5,574 694 6,268
5,642 691 6,334
5,710 689 6,399
5,777 688 6,465
995 790 1,785
994 754 1,749
996 731 1,727
997 716 1,713
999 706 1,704
1,001 699 1,700
1,004 694 1,698
1,009 691 1,700
1,014 689 1,703
1,020 688 1,708
1,027 687 1,713
3,346
4,054
4,180
4,279
4,362
4,435
4,504
4,568
4,631
4,692
4,752
05/06
Brazilian Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Sugarcane Area Harvested
4,650
4,654
4,701
4,760
(Thousand Hectares) 4,803 4,826 4,848
4,873
4,882
4,893
4,899
Yield
62.37
65.77
66.75
67.30
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 67.78 68.24 68.70
69.16
69.62
70.09
70.55
Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
(Thousand Metric Tons) 290,000 306,106 313,799 320,322 325,561 329,322 333,041 337,008 339,896 342,927 345,609
15,400 710 16,110
16,314 660 16,974
16,785 627 17,412
17,196 601 17,797
17,540 587 18,127
17,806 578 18,384
18,033 571 18,604
18,274 565 18,838
18,457 559 19,015
18,648 553 19,201
18,820 528 19,348
9,250 660 9,910
9,435 627 10,062
9,649 601 10,249
9,851 587 10,438
10,034 578 10,612
10,216 571 10,787
10,392 565 10,957
10,567 559 11,125
10,742 553 11,295
10,893 528 11,421
11,042 496 11,538
6,200
6,912
7,163
7,358
7,515
7,597
7,647
7,713
7,721
7,780
7,810
310 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Canadian Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
17
17
17
57.35
57.57
Production
975
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
Yield
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
17
(Thousand Hectares) 16 16 16
16
16
15
15
57.98
58.47
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 59.00 59.54 60.09
60.65
61.21
61.77
62.33
978
975
972
(Thousand Metric Tons) 968 964 960
956
951
946
940
110 39 149
110 63 173
110 76 186
110 85 194
109 92 201
109 98 207
108 104 213
108 110 218
107 116 223
107 122 229
106 128 234
1,240 63 1,303
1,247 76 1,323
1,254 85 1,339
1,263 92 1,355
1,275 98 1,373
1,287 104 1,391
1,300 110 1,410
1,317 116 1,433
1,335 122 1,457
1,357 128 1,484
1,379 133 1,513
-1,154
-1,150
-1,153
-1,161
-1,172
-1,184
-1,197
-1,215
-1,233
-1,256
-1,279
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Chinese Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
317
377
403
415
(Thousand Hectares) 421 424 426
428
430
432
433
36.18
33.65
33.80
33.95
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 34.10 34.25 34.40
34.55
34.70
34.85
35.00
11,470
12,674
13,616
14,105
(Thousand Metric Tons) 14,366 14,531 14,668
14,802
14,918
15,039
15,155
Sugarcane Area Harvested
1,152
1,151
1,170
1,195
(Thousand Hectares) 1,217 1,236 1,257
1,278
1,298
1,319
1,338
Yield
54.89
57.60
59.31
60.46
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 61.30 61.97 62.54
63.06
63.25
63.36
63.42
63,231
66,303
69,396
72,268
(Thousand Metric Tons) 74,594 76,623 78,601
80,619
82,099
83,539
84,856
6,966 2,339 9,305
7,365 1,383 8,748
7,749 1,090 8,840
8,072 965 9,037
8,322 914 9,236
8,537 891 9,428
8,744 875 9,620
8,955 859 9,815
9,115 847 9,962
9,291 833 10,124
9,456 820 10,276
8,650 1,383 10,033
8,999 1,090 10,090
9,081 965 10,047
9,206 914 10,120
9,376 891 10,267
9,632 875 10,508
9,946 859 10,806
10,246 847 11,093
10,563 833 11,396
10,919 820 11,738
11,313 803 12,116
-728
-1,342
-1,207
-1,083
-1,031
-1,080
-1,186
-1,278
-1,434
-1,614
-1,841
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 311
Colombian Sugar S Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
390
391
393
82.82
82.87
32,300
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
395
(Thousand Hectares) 397 398 400
402
402
403
403
83.04
83.27
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 83.52 83.78 84.05
84.32
84.60
84.87
85.14
32,443
32,664
32,911
(Thousand Metric Tons) 33,157 33,383 33,625
33,879
34,045
34,207
34,326
2,280 88 2,368
2,303 109 2,412
2,332 117 2,449
2,363 120 2,482
2,394 120 2,513
2,423 119 2,542
2,454 117 2,571
2,486 116 2,602
2,512 115 2,627
2,538 114 2,651
2,560 113 2,674
1,318 109 1,427
1,349 117 1,466
1,383 120 1,503
1,416 120 1,536
1,446 119 1,565
1,470 117 1,587
1,491 116 1,606
1,513 115 1,627
1,531 114 1,645
1,548 113 1,661
1,562 113 1,674
941
946
946
947
948
955
965
975
982
990
999
05/06
Cuban Sugar Supplly and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Sugarcane Area Harvested
1,175
1,168
1,164
1,163
(Thousand Hectares) 1,163 1,165 1,169
1,175
1,181
1,188
1,196
Yield
31.49
31.85
32.18
32.49
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 32.79 33.09 33.39
33.69
33.98
34.28
34.57
37,000
37,204
37,459
37,775
(Thousand Metric Tons) 38,145 38,564 39,040
39,572
40,127
40,722
41,341
4,000 420 4,420
4,048 180 4,228
4,102 204 4,306
4,163 210 4,373
4,231 207 4,438
4,304 200 4,504
4,384 190 4,575
4,472 179 4,651
4,563 168 4,731
4,659 157 4,816
4,759 146 4,905
740 180 920
752 204 956
761 210 971
771 207 979
782 200 982
791 190 982
800 179 979
812 168 981
823 157 980
834 146 980
845 135 979
3,500
3,272
3,335
3,395
3,456
3,523
3,596
3,670
3,751
3,836
3,926
Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
312 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Eastern European Sugar S Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
600
580
570
41.67
41.82
25,000
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
562
(Thousand Hectares) 557 551 546
541
536
531
526
41.93
42.04
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 42.16 42.27 42.39
42.50
42.61
42.73
42.84
24,268
23,885
23,646
(Thousand Metric Tons) 23,464 23,303 23,150
23,000
22,850
22,699
22,547
3,525 864 4,389
3,422 666 4,088
3,368 578 3,946
3,334 544 3,878
3,308 537 3,845
3,286 543 3,828
3,264 553 3,817
3,243 565 3,808
3,222 579 3,801
3,201 591 3,792
3,179 604 3,783
4,911 666 5,577
4,835 578 5,413
4,765 544 5,309
4,702 537 5,239
4,646 543 5,189
4,595 553 5,148
4,550 565 5,114
4,513 579 5,092
4,481 591 5,072
4,455 604 5,059
4,434 614 5,049
-1,188
-1,325
-1,363
-1,361
-1,344
-1,320
-1,297
-1,284
-1,272
-1,267
-1,266
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Egyptian Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
65
66
68
69
(Thousand Hectares) 70 72 73
74
76
77
79
Yield
45.23
45.38
45.93
46.58
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 47.27 47.97 48.68
49.38
50.09
50.79
51.49
Production
2,940
3,011
3,109
3,217
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,329 3,443 3,559
3,678
3,798
3,920
4,044
115
115
115
115
(Thousand Hectares) 116 116 116
117
117
117
118
95.93
96.66
97.38
98.08
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 98.76 99.43 100.09
100.74
101.39
102.03
102.66
11,032
11,122
11,216
11,314
(Thousand Metric Tons) 11,415 11,519 11,627
11,738
11,852
11,970
12,090
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,280 231 1,511
1,295 251 1,546
1,314 261 1,575
1,334 265 1,599
1,355 264 1,620
1,377 262 1,639
1,399 258 1,656
1,422 252 1,673
1,445 246 1,691
1,468 240 1,708
1,493 233 1,726
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,970 251 2,221
2,010 261 2,271
2,052 265 2,316
2,098 264 2,362
2,144 262 2,406
2,188 258 2,445
2,231 252 2,483
2,283 246 2,529
2,331 240 2,571
2,383 233 2,616
2,433 226 2,658
-710
-725
-741
-764
-786
-807
-827
-855
-880
-908
-933
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 313
European Union Su ugar Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
1,820
1,830
1,829
1,828
(Thousand Hectares) 1,832 1,839 1,847
1,855
1,864
1,872
1,881
Yield
57.69
58.10
58.42
58.73
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 59.03 59.34 59.64
59.95
60.25
60.56
60.86
Production Sugarcane Area Harvested
(Thousand Metric Tons) 105,000 106,294 106,824 107,346 108,149 109,104 110,137 111,198 112,287 113,390 114,506
2
2
2
2
72.20
72.44
72.98
148
150
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
18,762 3,752 22,514
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Yield
Production
Net Trade
05/06
(Thousand Hectares) 2 2
2
2
2
2
2
73.61
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 74.28 74.96 75.64
76.33
77.02
77.70
78.39
151
153
(Thousand Metric Tons) 155 157 159
161
162
164
166
18,993 3,630 22,623
19,195 3,235 22,430
19,289 3,056 22,345
19,433 2,987 22,420
19,605 2,972 22,578
19,791 2,985 22,776
19,981 3,012 22,993
20,177 3,046 23,223
20,376 3,084 23,460
20,576 3,124 23,700
15,556 3,630 19,186
15,585 3,235 18,820
15,631 3,056 18,687
15,665 2,987 18,652
15,704 2,972 18,676
15,744 2,985 18,729
15,780 3,012 18,792
15,812 3,046 18,858
15,845 3,084 18,929
15,880 3,124 19,004
15,917 3,164 19,081
3,328
3,803
3,743
3,693
3,744
3,849
3,984
4,135
4,294
4,456
4,619
Former Soviet Unio on Sugar Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
2,150
2,154
2,156
2,160
(Thousand Hectares) 2,161 2,162 2,165
2,174
2,177
2,184
2,190
Yield
15.63
16.04
16.29
16.46
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 16.58 16.68 16.78
16.86
16.95
17.03
17.11
33,600
34,553
35,137
35,547
(Thousand Metric Tons) 35,843 36,068 36,325
36,653
36,892
37,184
37,470
3,777 3,920 7,697
3,884 3,294 7,178
3,950 3,067 7,017
3,996 2,931 6,927
4,029 2,846 6,875
4,054 2,785 6,839
4,083 2,734 6,818
4,120 2,686 6,806
4,147 2,650 6,797
4,180 2,610 6,790
4,212 2,573 6,785
10,297 3,294 13,591
10,172 3,067 13,239
10,089 2,931 13,020
10,019 2,846 12,865
9,984 2,785 12,769
9,900 2,734 12,634
9,804 2,686 12,490
9,761 2,650 12,411
9,681 2,610 12,291
9,619 2,573 12,192
9,528 2,529 12,058
-5,894
-6,061
-6,003
-5,938
-5,894
-5,795
-5,672
-5,604
-5,495
-5,401
-5,273
Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
05/06
314 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Indian Sugar Supply ly and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Sugarcane Area Harvested
3,950
3,968
3,990
4,015
(Thousand Hectares) 4,040 4,065 4,091
4,116
4,141
4,166
4,191
Yield
72.41
73.42
74.08
74.77
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 75.46 76.15 76.84
77.52
78.21
78.85
79.49
Production
05/06
(Thousand Metric Tons) 286,000 291,302 295,594 300,194 304,858 309,567 314,318 319,108 323,889 328,503 333,154
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
17,803 10,676 28,479
18,404 10,109 28,513
18,785 9,541 28,326
19,188 9,123 28,311
19,599 8,807 28,406
20,016 8,560 28,576
20,440 8,361 28,801
20,850 8,194 29,043
21,262 8,049 29,311
21,686 7,918 29,604
22,117 7,797 29,914
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
17,870 10,109 27,979
18,239 9,541 27,781
18,618 9,123 27,741
19,001 8,807 27,807
19,387 8,560 27,947
19,778 8,361 28,139
20,172 8,194 28,366
20,582 8,049 28,631
20,989 7,918 28,907
21,403 7,797 29,200
21,816 7,683 29,499
500
732
585
504
458
437
434
412
404
404
415
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Trade
Indonesian Sugar Supply S and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
340
311
299
292
(Thousand Hectares) 290 291 298
309
325
339
349
63.53
65.94
66.81
67.45
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 68.04 68.63 69.22
69.82
70.41
71.00
71.59
21,600
20,479
19,977
19,673
(Thousand Metric Tons) 19,706 19,942 20,661
21,553
22,890
24,047
24,995
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,500 1,240 2,740
1,427 840 2,267
1,397 667 2,064
1,381 594 1,975
1,388 561 1,950
1,410 543 1,953
1,466 531 1,997
1,534 522 2,056
1,635 512 2,147
1,724 502 2,226
1,798 491 2,289
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,500 840 4,340
3,571 667 4,237
3,664 594 4,258
3,756 561 4,317
3,857 543 4,401
3,961 531 4,492
4,066 522 4,588
4,179 512 4,691
4,295 502 4,797
4,419 491 4,911
4,553 479 5,032
-1,600
-1,970
-2,194
-2,342
-2,451
-2,539
-2,590
-2,635
-2,649
-2,684
-2,742
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 315
Iranian Sugar Supp ply and Utilization Sugar Beet Area Harvested Yield Production Sugarcane Area Harvested
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
175
170
167
27.14
27.48
27.84
4,750 29
4,671 30
4,644
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
165
(Thousand Hectares) 164 163 163
162
162
162
162
28.20
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 28.57 28.93 29.30
29.67
30.03
30.40
30.77
4,649
(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,674 4,712 4,763
4,821
4,874
4,929
4,981
30
(Thousand Hectares) 31 31 31
32
32
32
32
76.74
77.55
78.35
79.16
30
04/05
05/06
Yield
70.69
71.75
72.65
73.50
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 74.32 75.13 75.93
Production
2,050
2,118
2,177
2,231
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,282 2,331 2,378
2,425
2,472
2,519
2,567
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
835 640 1,475
834 575 1,409
838 529 1,367
846 493 1,339
856 463 1,319
868 435 1,303
880 409 1,289
894 383 1,277
907 358 1,266
921 334 1,254
934 310 1,243
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,200 575 2,775
2,256 529 2,784
2,322 493 2,815
2,389 463 2,851
2,461 435 2,896
2,533 409 2,942
2,607 383 2,990
2,685 358 3,044
2,765 334 3,099
2,847 310 3,156
2,930 285 3,215
-1,300
-1,376
-1,448
-1,513
-1,577
-1,639
-1,701
-1,767
-1,833
-1,902
-1,972
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Net Trade
Japanese Sugar Su upply and Utilization Sugar Beet Area Harvested Yield
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
70
71
71
71
(Thousand Hectares) 70 70 70
70
70
69
69
55.68
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 56.22 56.78 57.33
57.89
58.46
59.02
59.58
4,042
4,070
4,093
4,108
54.29
54.67
55.15
3,800
3,871
3,911
3,932
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,955 3,980 4,010
23
24
24
25
(Thousand Hectares) 25 25 25
25
24
24
24
Yield
61.74
62.35
62.80
63.26
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 63.73 64.19 64.65
65.11
65.58
66.04
66.50
Production
1,420
1,484
1,525
1,554
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,573 1,586 1,594
1,598
1,599
1,596
1,590
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
780 225 1,005
800 245 1,045
818 253 1,071
831 257 1,088
843 259 1,101
854 260 1,114
865 261 1,126
877 262 1,139
887 263 1,150
896 264 1,160
903 265 1,168
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,350 245 2,595
2,375 253 2,628
2,385 257 2,642
2,394 259 2,652
2,400 260 2,660
2,403 261 2,664
2,409 262 2,671
2,415 263 2,678
2,422 264 2,686
2,430 265 2,695
2,436 266 2,702
-1,590
-1,583
-1,571
-1,565
-1,558
-1,550
-1,544
-1,540
-1,536
-1,535
-1,534
Production Sugarcane Area Harvested
Net Trade
316 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Malaysian Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
18
18
19
Yield
62.78
63.47
Production
1,130
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
19
(Thousand Hectares) 19 20 20
20
20
21
21
64.10
64.80
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 65.54 66.29 67.05
67.81
68.56
69.32
70.08
1,166
1,199
1,231
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,262 1,294 1,326
1,358
1,390
1,423
1,455
113 165 278
117 188 305
121 210 331
125 225 350
129 235 363
133 241 374
137 245 381
141 246 387
145 247 391
149 246 394
153 244 397
1,200 188 1,388
1,237 210 1,447
1,275 225 1,499
1,314 235 1,548
1,353 241 1,594
1,391 245 1,636
1,430 246 1,676
1,471 247 1,718
1,512 246 1,758
1,555 244 1,800
1,567 242 1,809
-1,110
-1,142
-1,169
-1,199
-1,231
-1,262
-1,295
-1,331
-1,367
-1,405
-1,412
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Mexican Sugar Sup pply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
630
658
668
672
(Thousand Hectares) 673 675 676
688
699
710
722
69.84
70.79
71.28
71.64
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 71.97 72.30 72.62
72.94
73.26
73.59
73.91
44,000
46,609
47,644
48,127
(Thousand Metric Tons) 48,471 48,784 49,057
50,155
51,186
52,281
53,390
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
4,987 585 5,572
5,293 550 5,843
5,421 549 5,970
5,487 544 6,030
5,536 537 6,073
5,583 529 6,112
5,625 521 6,146
5,762 513 6,275
5,892 506 6,398
6,029 500 6,529
6,169 494 6,663
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
4,482 550 5,032
4,538 549 5,087
4,597 544 5,140
4,652 537 5,189
4,705 529 5,234
4,754 521 5,275
4,800 513 5,313
4,846 506 5,353
4,888 500 5,388
4,928 494 5,422
4,962 489 5,451
540
756
830
841
839
837
832
923
1,010
1,107
1,212
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 317
Moroccan Sugar Su upply and Utilization Sugar Beet Area Harvested Yield Production
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
50
51
52
58.00
59.24
60.00
2,900
3,046
3,095
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
51
(Thousand Hectares) 51 51 51
51
51
51
51
60.59
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 61.11 61.60 62.08
62.55
63.03
63.50
63.98
3,116
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,129 3,140 3,150
3,172
3,196
3,222
3,247
21
21
21
22
18
18
18
19
(Thousand Hectares) 19 20 20
Yield
66.67
63.64
62.78
62.78
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 63.15 63.65 64.21
64.80
65.40
66.00
66.60
Production
1,200
1,152
1,156
1,181
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,215 1,253 1,292
1,333
1,374
1,416
1,458
475 225 700
457 175 632
463 147 610
468 132 600
474 125 599
480 123 603
486 126 611
493 130 623
501 136 637
508 143 652
516 151 667
990 175 1,165
1,008 147 1,155
1,027 132 1,159
1,045 125 1,170
1,063 123 1,187
1,081 126 1,206
1,098 130 1,228
1,117 136 1,253
1,135 143 1,278
1,153 151 1,304
1,171 159 1,330
-465
-523
-549
-570
-588
-603
-617
-630
-641
-653
-663
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
7
7
7
7
7
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
Pakistani Sugar Sup upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
7
7
7
7
25.71
26.35
26.56
26.67
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 26.75 26.83 26.91
26.99
27.07
27.15
27.23
180
182
182
182
(Thousand Metric Tons) 182 183 183
184
185
185
186
Sugarcane Area Harvested
1,054
1,022
1,006
1,000
(Thousand Hectares) 999 1,002 1,008
1,014
1,021
1,029
1,037
Yield
45.31
46.97
48.04
48.97
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 49.86 50.73 51.60
52.47
53.34
54.21
55.08
(Thousand Metric Tons) 49,818 50,850 51,991
53,206
54,471
55,772
57,101
Sugar Beet Area Harvested Yield Production
Production
(Thousand Hectares) 7 7
47,743
47,984
48,316
48,949
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,510 447 2,957
2,523 407 2,930
2,545 395 2,940
2,583 389 2,972
2,634 387 3,020
2,693 385 3,078
2,759 383 3,142
2,828 381 3,209
2,901 378 3,279
2,976 375 3,351
3,052 372 3,424
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
3,250 407 3,657
3,252 395 3,647
3,259 389 3,648
3,274 387 3,661
3,295 385 3,680
3,322 383 3,705
3,356 381 3,737
3,400 378 3,778
3,449 375 3,825
3,507 372 3,880
3,573 368 3,942
-700
-717
-709
-689
-659
-627
-595
-569
-545
-529
-518
Net Trade
318 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Peruvian Sugar Sup pply and Utilization Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
62
64
65
116.13
116.24
7,200
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
66
(Thousand Hectares) 67 67 68
68
68
69
69
116.63
117.15
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 117.73 118.33 118.94
119.55
120.17
120.79
121.41
7,427
7,595
7,730
(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,842 7,940 8,036
8,133
8,220
8,309
8,395
720 130 850
744 130 874
765 129 894
782 128 910
797 127 924
811 125 937
823 124 947
834 122 957
845 121 966
856 119 975
866 117 984
975 130 1,105
991 129 1,120
1,007 128 1,135
1,026 127 1,153
1,046 125 1,172
1,068 124 1,192
1,090 122 1,213
1,116 121 1,237
1,144 119 1,263
1,173 117 1,291
1,204 115 1,319
-255
-246
-241
-242
-247
-255
-266
-280
-297
-316
-336
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Philippine Sugar Su upply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
370
371
372
374
(Thousand Hectares) 376 377 379
380
381
382
382
54.05
57.86
59.25
59.95
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 60.44 60.88 61.30
61.72
62.13
62.54
62.96
20,000
21,475
22,071
22,420
(Thousand Metric Tons) 22,703 22,969 23,234
23,471
23,685
23,885
24,073
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
1,650 460 2,110
1,649 338 1,987
1,706 274 1,980
1,744 238 1,982
1,777 215 1,992
1,809 198 2,008
1,842 185 2,027
1,872 176 2,048
1,901 168 2,070
1,929 162 2,091
1,957 156 2,113
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
1,930 338 2,268
1,962 274 2,236
1,995 238 2,233
2,028 215 2,243
2,061 198 2,259
2,089 185 2,274
2,114 176 2,290
2,142 168 2,310
2,168 162 2,330
2,193 156 2,350
2,218 151 2,369
-158
-249
-254
-261
-267
-266
-263
-262
-260
-258
-256
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 319
South African Suga ar Supply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
322
324
326
74.53
74.63
24,000
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
328
(Thousand Hectares) 331 333 336
338
341
343
346
74.88
75.13
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 75.38 75.63 75.88
76.13
76.38
76.63
76.88
24,169
24,413
24,672
(Thousand Metric Tons) 24,937 25,206 25,478
25,755
26,030
26,308
26,585
2,800 520 3,320
2,820 545 3,365
2,848 471 3,319
2,878 440 3,318
2,909 426 3,335
2,941 418 3,358
2,972 411 3,384
3,005 404 3,409
3,037 401 3,438
3,069 397 3,466
3,102 395 3,496
1,380 545 1,925
1,400 471 1,871
1,413 440 1,853
1,424 426 1,850
1,434 418 1,852
1,441 411 1,853
1,448 404 1,852
1,455 401 1,856
1,460 397 1,857
1,463 395 1,858
1,467 392 1,859
1,395
1,494
1,466
1,469
1,483
1,506
1,531
1,553
1,581
1,608
1,638
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
(Thousand Metric Tons) 0 0 0 123 126 126 123 126 126
0 124 124
0 121 121
0 117 117
0 112 112
South Korean Suga ar Supply and Utilization
Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use Net Trade
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
0 83 83
0 80 80
0 102 102
0 115 115
1,173 80 1,253
1,212 102 1,314
1,258 115 1,374
1,308 123 1,431
1,359 126 1,485
1,408 126 1,534
1,455 124 1,579
1,506 121 1,627
1,553 117 1,670
1,602 112 1,714
1,647 107 1,754
-1,170
-1,234
-1,272
-1,315
-1,363
-1,408
-1,453
-1,503
-1,549
-1,597
-1,642
320 / World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Thai Sugar Supply and a Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
920
925
931
56.52
57.93
52,000
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
937
(Thousand Hectares) 943 949 955
962
968
974
980
58.72
59.33
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 59.87 60.41 60.93
61.45
61.98
62.50
63.02
53,600
54,665
55,580
(Thousand Metric Tons) 56,457 57,329 58,206
59,089
59,979
60,875
61,778
5,600 430 6,030
5,772 380 6,152
5,887 415 6,302
5,986 437 6,422
6,080 451 6,531
6,174 460 6,634
6,268 466 6,734
6,363 467 6,830
6,459 470 6,929
6,556 471 7,027
6,653 473 7,126
1,850 380 2,230
1,898 415 2,314
1,949 437 2,385
2,001 451 2,452
2,056 460 2,516
2,112 466 2,578
2,171 467 2,637
2,232 470 2,702
2,295 471 2,767
2,361 473 2,834
2,428 473 2,901
3,800
3,838
3,917
3,970
4,015
4,057
4,096
4,128
4,162
4,193
4,225
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
Turkish Sugar Supp ply and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
395
378
371
370
(Thousand Hectares) 371 372 374
376
378
381
383
40.51
40.94
41.41
41.89
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 42.38 42.86 43.34
43.82
44.30
44.78
45.26
16,000
15,457
15,382
15,503
(Thousand Metric Tons) 15,705 15,943 16,208
16,491
16,766
17,051
17,333
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply
2,200 649 2,849
2,125 309 2,434
2,117 326 2,443
2,135 335 2,470
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,164 2,199 2,237 341 344 345 2,505 2,543 2,581
2,277 343 2,621
2,317 342 2,659
2,358 340 2,698
2,399 337 2,736
Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
2,140 309 2,449
2,190 326 2,517
2,242 335 2,578
2,295 341 2,636
2,350 344 2,694
2,405 345 2,749
2,460 343 2,803
2,518 342 2,860
2,576 340 2,916
2,636 337 2,974
2,697 334 3,031
400
-82
-135
-166
-189
-207
-222
-240
-257
-276
-294
Sugar Beet Area Harvested
Yield
Production
Net Trade
World Sugar: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 321
Venezuelan Sugar Supply S and Utilization 00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
117
117
117
Yield
59.40
59.08
Production
6,950
Sugar Production Beginning Stocks Domestic Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Domestic Use
Sugarcane Area Harvested
Net Trade
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
117
(Thousand Hectares) 117 117 117
118
118
118
118
59.12
59.29
(Metric Tons per Hectare) 59.51 59.75 59.99
60.24
60.48
60.73
60.98
6,918
6,928
6,952
(Thousand Metric Tons) 6,983 7,015 7,047
7,080
7,112
7,144
7,175
535 275 810
536 145 681
540 124 665
546 115 661
551 112 664
558 113 671
562 117 678
566 122 687
570 128 698
574 135 709
577 142 720
680 145 825
682 124 807
684 115 799
684 112 796
685 113 798
683 117 800
682 122 804
682 128 810
680 135 815
679 142 821
676 150 826
-15
-126
-134
-136
-134
-130
-126
-122
-117
-112
-107
WORLD MEAT
324 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Meat Prices Dollars per CWT 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Beef
Pork
Poultry
World Meat Production and Trade Million Metric Tons
Thousand Metric Tons
200
6,000
180 5,000
160 140
4,000
120 100
3,000
80 2,000
60 40
1,000
20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Beef Production
Pork Production
Poultry Production
Beef Trade (tmt)
Pork Trade (tmt)
Poultry Trade (tmt)
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 325
World Meat Trade and U.S. Market Share Percent
Million Metric Tons 14
35
12
30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2
5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
U.S.
2001
2002
2003
Other Exporters
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0 2010
U.S. Market Share
EU Per Capita Meat Consumption Kilograms per Person 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Beef
Pork
Poultry
326 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Beef and Veal The fed steer price in the U.S. is expected to increase 3.27 percent annually over the next three years as herds build, peaking at $76.64/cwt in 2003. Beef trade rises 30 percent over the baseline, with the largest increase in imports occurring in Japan, Russia, Taiwan, and South Korea. Mexican beef imports surge to 547 tmt in 2003 as domestic cattle herds are rebuilt and as consumption rises steadily. Low-cost producers, such as Brazil, Canada, and the United States, gain export market share. The EU’s share of beef trade drops due to BSE concerns. Australia loses some export share in the outer years of the projection period but makes significant increases in live cattle exports. Argentina regains lost market share. Despite reported FMD cases from illegally imported cattle, Argentina’s net beef exports grow by 3.55 percent in the first half of the decade, accelerating to 6.33 percent in the second half and reaching 566 tmt in 2010. As U.S. beef prices rise over the next three years, Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand expand beef exports by 272, 110, and 96 tmt. In the latter half of the baseline, the United States and Argentina are expected to increase their share of beef trade, while the EU recovers some exports lost during the BSE crisis. Canada is retaining more cattle for domestic slaughter with its additional slaughter capacity, cutting in half its annual average live cattle export to the United States compared to the peak level of 1.15 million head in 1996. Australia’s live cattle export to Asian countries, including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, increases 54 percent in the next decade, reaching 1.34 million head in 2010. With the exception of Austria, Finland, and Sweden, BSE outbreaks have been reported in the rest of the European Union, particularly France and Germany, which account for 43 percent of total cattle stock in the EU. As a consequence, the EU has implemented a Purchase for Destruction Scheme, which is projected to reduce EU beef production by 10.4 percent in 2001. EU beef production drops 13 percent between 1999 and 2002. Production increases temporarily from 2003 to 2005, but with fewer dairy cattle, EU beef output declines for the remainder of the decade. Annual beef consumption in the EU declined 5.8 percent in 2000 and is expected to decline another 8.1 percent in 2001. EU consumers are substituting other meats for beef, particularly poultry. Per capita poultry consumption increases to 16.3 kg in 2002. Beef consumption returns to a more gradual downward trend by 2005. Agenda 2000 reforms reduce beef intervention prices by 20 percent and crop intervention prices by 15 percent. Also, public intervention purchases of beef are replaced with private storage aid at the end of 2002. However, more flexible public intervention was introduced in the wake of the recent BSE scare. The EU’s beef export dropped by 30 percent in 2000 due to the combined effect of low intervention stocks in the first ten months and a unilateral import restriction imposed by third countries. Concerns over BSE keep exports below the GATT limit. South Korea’s liberalization of beef imports in 2001 contributes to the growing share of imports in total consumption, rising from 16 percent in the 1990s to 24 percent at the end of the next decade.
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 327
Beef and Veal Trade e 2000
2001
2002
2003
Net Exporters Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China - Mainland European Union * Hungary New Zealand Poland Slovenia Thailand Ukraine United States
352 1,210 568 285 31 290 4 458 35 3 0 79 -243
396 1,247 578 296 44 195 7 492 40 1 2 79 -235
404 1,273 691 296 51 190 6 522 29 1 2 58 -285
Total Net Exports
3,071
3,141
18 66 3 3 20 1,000 2 2 400 15 121 85 1 445 0 268 95 527
Net Importers Bulgaria China - Hong Kong Czech Republic Estonia Indonesia Japan Latvia Lithuania Mexico Other Eastern Europe Other Former Soviet Union Philippines Romania Russia Slovakia South Korea Taiwan Rest of World Total Net Imports Nebraska Direct Fed Steer Price
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
420 1,320 840 283 53 196 5 554 13 1 9 94 -355
(Thousand Metric Tons) 420 416 446 1,340 1,370 1,376 861 860 778 282 313 336 45 37 30 179 169 205 2 0 -2 563 574 579 -5 -19 -40 1 1 1 7 4 0 106 124 129 -211 -146 22
478 1,365 711 328 24 273 -5 582 -48 1 -3 124 147
509 1,341 662 313 21 295 -7 583 -52 2 -2 113 259
548 1,310 649 307 18 337 -8 590 -54 3 3 97 214
566 1,267 648 292 16 399 -9 594 -51 5 13 72 194
3,237
3,432
3,589
3,705
3,859
3,977
4,037
4,015
4,006
18 70 1 5 5 981 0 6 378 13 119 69 4 537 0 319 97 519
26 72 12 5 26 990 0 6 389 9 95 84 10 534 -1 335 100 545
26 74 20 5 18 1,011 -2 3 547 6 100 96 14 533 -4 352 102 529
32 77 33 6 43 1,037 -1 3 560 6 88 123 21 591 -5 371 107 496
37 81 39 6 52 1,050 -1 3 480 6 90 141 27 637 -3 387 111 562
42 84 45 6 58 1,062 0 4 533 6 83 159 33 678 -1 400 115 551
46 87 50 7 59 1,080 2 4 541 6 84 172 37 688 1 413 121 580
47 90 52 7 57 1,095 3 3 525 9 82 179 40 688 3 424 126 607
46 92 53 6 57 1,101 4 0 481 13 89 178 42 683 5 431 130 604
44 94 49 5 55 1,107 4 -3 448 17 98 175 44 669 6 436 134 627
3,071
3,141
3,237
3,432
3,589
3,705
3,859
3,977
4,037
4,015
4,006
1,536
1,642
1,676
1,690
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,635 1,586 1,538
1,501
1,482
1,493
1,516
* Includes meat and meat equivalent of o live cattle trade.
2004
2005
328 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Major Beef Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995
1996
Japan
1997
1998
Russia
1999 Mexico
2000
2001
2002
South Korea
2003
2004
Other FSU
2005
2006
Taiwan
2007
2008
Philippines
2009
2010
Hong Kong
Beef Export Market Share Percent 50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 Australia
Brazil
New Zealand 1995/2000
EU
Argentina 2001/2005
Canada 2006/2010
China
U.S.
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 329
EU Beef Supply and Utilization Million Metric Tons
Thousand Metric Tons 2,000
8.0
1,600 7.5 1,200 7.0 800 6.5 400
0
6.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Production
Consumption
Export (tmt)
Stock (tmt)
Live Cattle and Beef Export Thousand Head
Thousand Metric Tons 600
1,600 1,400
500 1,200 400 1,000 300
800 600
200 400 100 200 0
0 1990
1992
1994
1996 Australia-Live
1998
2000
2002
Canada-Live
2004
2006
Argentina-Beef
2008
2010
330 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Pork U.S. pork prices recovered in 2000, but a buildup in market hog inventories pushes prices down to $34.54 per cwt in 2002. Prices strengthen slightly in the long run. World pork import demand increases by 39 percent in the next decade, driven by economic and population growth in Asia, the FSU, South America, and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Low feed grain prices and productivity improvements enable the United States and Canada to increase their share of the international pork trade, expanding net exports by 351 and 339 tmt respectively. Despite losing market share, the EU increases its pork exports by 75 tmt over the baseline. China’s pork consumption grows in excess of production, causing China to become a net importer in 2005. Chinese pork net imports reach 32 tmt in 2010. Slight recovery at the end of the decade provides more exportable surplus of pork from the CEECs. Investment in additional slaughter capacity, adoption of better coordination mechanisms, and flexibility in meat processing operations are the engines of growth for Canada’s swine sector. As domestic slaughter capacity increases, Canadian live swine export to the U.S. falls 20 percent below the peak of 4.14 million head in 1999. Canada’s net exports of pork reach 1.02 mmt in 2010, with an increasing share destined for Asian markets. An FMD outbreak in 2000 closed South Korea’s access to Japan’s pork import market. Korean pork exports recover gradually by the end of the baseline Japan remains the world’s largest pork importer. However, deficiency payments stabilize domestic production and slow expansion of pork imports to 1.36 percent annually compared to 6.58 percent in the 1990s. Rapid pork consumption growth expands Mexico’s net imports to 285 tmt in 2010. Fiscal incentives encourage investments in new production facilities in the grain-surplus regions of central and western Brazil. Pork production and exports increase, doubling Brazil’s export market share from 3 to 6 percent.
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 331
Pork Trade Net Exporters Australia Brazil Canada European Union Hungary Poland Other Former Soviet Union Thailand United States Total Net Exports Net Imports Argentina Bulgaria China - Hong Kong China - Mainland Czech Republic Estonia Indonesia Japan Latvia Lithuania Mexico New Zealand Other Eastern Europe Philippines Romania Russia Slovakia Slovenia South Korea Taiwan Ukraine Rest of World Total Net Imports Barrow and Gilt Price, National Base 51-52% Lean Equivalent
2000
2001
2002
2003
10 84 680 1,124 99 120 0 3 132
34 152 750 986 101 119 -6 22 150
37 199 710 1,104 124 140 -6 37 222
2,252
2,308
66 3 220 10 10 14 1 880 9 4 95 9 55 15 12 299 26 17 110 60 8 328
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
37 129 874 1,272 111 110 -4 0 180
(Thousand Metric Tons) 21 15 14 133 156 189 977 982 939 1,178 1,078 1,071 111 114 121 109 113 125 -3 0 3 -11 -4 11 185 265 343
9 182 1,009 1,019 116 126 5 12 343
4 168 1,085 960 115 121 7 8 362
-2 175 1,061 1,023 116 126 6 15 421
-10 163 1,019 1,197 117 135 4 17 483
2,567
2,710
2,701
2,720
2,816
2,821
2,831
2,941
3,124
66 14 224 9 22 14 -23 894 8 2 129 9 59 9 30 348 14 18 55 71 -12 348
58 20 234 19 20 13 -31 948 7 0 251 11 58 0 42 352 -3 15 83 85 0 384
75 31 233 -4 49 13 -17 938 9 3 238 10 58 36 65 382 10 17 78 93 33 360
79 32 236 -8 56 13 1 923 10 4 208 15 56 16 69 400 14 18 60 95 35 371
76 31 248 6 52 14 -3 918 10 3 218 14 52 24 65 395 16 17 53 105 26 381
70 28 261 23 47 13 -8 955 10 1 265 12 48 26 56 381 14 17 58 118 14 407
71 27 264 18 51 14 1 956 10 1 245 11 43 52 49 389 17 17 51 113 15 406
75 26 266 13 52 14 14 950 11 2 209 11 40 82 46 408 22 19 42 108 17 403
74 22 276 22 50 15 20 973 11 1 235 10 38 98 33 431 23 19 45 110 14 421
74 20 286 32 45 15 19 1,004 12 1 285 9 36 125 20 477 24 19 53 113 15 438
2,252
2,308
2,567
2,710
2,701
2,720
2,816
2,821
2,831
2,941
3,124
985
895
762
914
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,006 947 864
936
1,011
959
902
332 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Major Pork Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 1995
1996
1997
1998 Japan
1999
2000
Russia
2001
2002
Hong Kong
2003
2004
Mexico
2005
Argentina
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
South Korea
Pork Export Market Share Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 EU
Canada
U.S. 1995/2000
Poland 2001/2005
Brazil 2006/2010
Hungary
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 333
Canadian Pork and Swine Export Thousand MT, Head 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Pork
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Swine
China Pork Supply and Utilization Million Metric Tons
Thousand Metric Tons 300
40 35
250 30 200 25 150
20 15
100 10 50 5 0 1990
1992
1994
1996
Production
1998
2000
Consumption
2002
2004
Export (tmt)
2006
2008
Import (tmt)
2010
334 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Poultry Poultry consumption grows fastest among all meats, accounting for half of the growth in per capita meat consumption in the next decade. U.S. broiler consumption is expected to increase 36.1 percent over the baseline, reaching 50.6 kg per person by 2010. U.S. broiler production expands 2.8 percent annually, which is sufficient to hold average broiler prices at $57.34/cwt. Availability of improved technology raises production in many countries, alleviating the impact on trade and prices of the long-run shift toward poultry consumption. Substantial growth in poultry consumption is also projected for Australia, Mexico, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. With the exception of Hong Kong, the bulk of the increase in poultry consumption is supplied by domestic production. World poultry imports increase by 20 percent in the next decade, driven by strong demand in Japan, China, Russia, and Hong Kong. Improvement of production infrastructure in large broiler operations causes imports in Russia and Mexico to decline in the medium term. Broiler trade is projected to increase 806 tmt by 2010. The United States and Brazil supply 37 and 45 percent of the increase in broiler import demand. Cheap poultry exports and currency devaluation fuel Brazil’s gain in export market share from 18 to 26 percent. The U.S.’s share is stable, then declines slightly at the close of the decade. The EU and Thailand lose market share. Complementary demands for broiler parts in China and the United States drive China’s imports to 859 tmt in 2010. Driven by similar patterns of macroeconomic and population growth, the combined net poultry imports of Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea increase from 81 tmt to 173 tmt.
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 335
Broiler Meat Trade Net Exporters Australia Brazil European Union Hungary Slovenia Thailand United States Total Net Exports Net Importers Argentina Bulgaria Canada China - Mainland China - Hong Kong Czech Republic Estonia Indonesia Japan Latvia Lithuania Mexico New Zealand Other Eastern Europe Other Former Soviet Union Philippines Poland Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Slovakia South Korea Taiwan Ukraine Rest of World Total Net Imports
U.S. 12-City Price
2000
2001
2002
2003
13 870 403 40 0 270 2,480
23 858 399 36 -3 312 2,512
20 924 399 32 -1 274 2,554
4,076
4,137
30 9 18 770 286 12 11 7 546 13 5 159 -4 43 122 23 -2 19 895 352 2 51 13 81 615
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
33 1,025 414 38 0 241 2,544
(Thousand Metric Tons) 37 43 49 1,155 1,175 1,206 418 419 420 41 43 49 1 1 1 204 196 206 2,531 2,584 2,584
56 1,245 423 50 1 231 2,595
64 1,255 426 53 0 255 2,635
59 1,243 430 54 -1 283 2,712
56 1,235 435 60 0 318 2,777
4,203
4,296
4,388
4,461
4,515
4,600
4,688
4,780
4,882
54 8 28 775 291 21 13 -15 530 13 4 135 -1 43 125 48 -8 31 925 363 -1 33 15 81 626
64 2 -11 772 296 34 13 28 547 13 5 109 5 40 119 59 -18 29 897 367 -5 35 14 114 675
48 7 -4 773 301 45 12 -6 569 13 4 128 3 39 119 56 -23 29 861 371 -10 40 13 106 802
35 7 9 789 307 56 12 21 580 13 4 139 8 37 116 52 -25 30 835 378 -15 44 14 100 843
35 6 6 805 312 60 13 17 592 13 4 138 8 35 115 57 -22 31 824 388 -13 48 14 97 877
35 4 -6 819 316 60 13 24 602 13 3 115 8 33 114 60 -16 32 813 396 -12 52 14 94 927
25 5 -1 832 321 58 13 34 612 13 3 130 7 31 113 57 -17 33 789 403 -11 56 14 88 993
15 6 4 842 326 56 13 38 623 13 2 148 7 31 114 56 -20 34 790 411 -11 61 14 82 1,033
11 6 -4 850 330 61 13 52 634 13 1 135 6 33 118 60 -18 36 836 418 -11 65 14 79 1,041
1 6 -18 859 334 57 13 41 645 13 1 116 1 34 122 63 -24 37 901 424 -12 69 14 76 1,111
4,076
4,137
4,203
4,296
4,388
4,461
4,515
4,600
4,688
4,780
4,882
1,239
1,258
1,264
1,264
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,264 1,260 1,262
1,266
1,269
1,275
1,284
336 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Major Broiler Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995
1996
1997
1998
Japan
1999
2000
China
2001 Russia
2002
2003
Hong Kong
2004
2005
2006
Saudi Arabia
2007
2008
2009
Mexico
Broiler Export Market Share Percent 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 U.S.
Brazil
EU 1995/2000
2001/2005
Thailand 2006/2010
Hungary
2010
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 337
Per Capita Poultry Consumption of Selected Countries Kilograms per Person 60
50
40
30
20
10
0 Australia
China
EU
Hong Kong
1995/2000
Mexico
2001/2005
Korea
Taiwan
U.S.
2006/2010
Brazilian Broiler Supply and Utilization Million Metric Tons
Thousand Metric Tons
8
1,400
7
1,200
6
1,000
5 800 4 600 3 400
2
200
1
0 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Production
2000
2002
Consumption
2004
2006
Export (tmt)
2008
2010
338 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Meat Supply an nd Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
98.0 53.6
97.3 55.3
97.2 54.6
97.9 53.8
(Million Head) 99.4 101.0 54.4 55.4
102.6 54.8
103.5 54.5
103.3 55.0
102.5 55.7
101.6 55.5
535 2,285
528 2,233
528 2,253
532 2,247
(Thousand Head) 533 532 530 2,220 2,195 2,174
529 2,155
527 2,149
525 2,162
526 2,174
74 4,365
74 3,917
74 3,836
74 3,716
74 3,633
74 3,600
74 3,580
74 3,581
74 3,568
74 3,531
Beef Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
12,195 1,395 13,777 12,416 1,152 209 13,777
11,890 1,418 13,516 12,161 1,182 172 13,516
11,764 1,463 13,399 12,049 1,178 172 13,399
11,781 1,509 13,462 12,136 1,153 173 13,462
(Thousand Metric Tons) 12,037 12,279 12,657 1,530 1,523 1,503 13,741 13,979 14,339 12,245 12,423 12,633 1,319 1,377 1,525 177 179 181 13,741 13,979 14,339
13,036 1,492 14,709 12,886 1,639 184 14,709
13,217 1,497 14,898 12,959 1,756 184 14,898
13,186 1,507 14,877 12,972 1,722 183 14,877
13,160 1,519 14,862 12,967 1,713 182 14,862
Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
8,589 443 9,254 8,441 575 238 9,254
8,881 473 9,593 8,719 623 250 9,593
9,137 464 9,851 8,915 686 250 9,851
9,033 518 9,800 8,866 697 237 9,800
9,079 538 9,855 8,894 724 237 9,855
9,300 519 10,056 9,027 784 245 10,056
9,519 504 10,269 9,172 847 249 10,269
9,515 537 10,301 9,178 880 243 10,301
9,589 562 10,394 9,227 924 243 10,394
9,775 562 10,579 9,348 982 249 10,579
9,965 553 10,768 9,478 1,036 254 10,768
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
13,642 14,003 11,160 2,483 363 14,005
14,000 14,363 11,478 2,514 373 14,364
14,406 14,779 11,849 2,556 375 14,780
14,831 15,206 12,283 2,546 378 15,208
15,282 15,661 12,746 2,533 383 15,662
15,692 16,075 13,105 2,586 385 16,076
16,119 16,505 13,532 2,586 388 16,506
16,550 16,938 13,952 2,596 391 16,940
17,008 17,400 14,369 2,637 396 17,402
17,474 17,870 14,757 2,714 402 17,872
17,974 18,375 15,189 2,779 409 18,377
Turkey Production Beg Stocks Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2,422 115 2,537 2,228 197 113 2,538
2,485 113 2,599 2,285 191 124 2,599
2,519 124 2,643 2,322 194 127 2,643
2,552 127 2,679 2,353 197 129 2,679
2,587 129 2,716 2,382 202 133 2,716
2,620 133 2,753 2,407 209 137 2,753
2,648 137 2,785 2,431 214 140 2,786
2,676 140 2,816 2,455 219 143 2,817
2,706 143 2,849 2,476 226 146 2,849
2,737 146 2,883 2,502 232 150 2,884
2,769 150 2,919 2,527 238 153 2,919
1,536
1,642
1,676
1,690
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,635 1,586 1,538
1,501
1,482
1,493
1,516
985 1,239
895 1,258
762 1,264
914 1,264
864 1,262
936 1,266
1,011 1,269
959 1,275
902 1,284
6.76 5.69 3.42 2.28
7.00 5.68 3.46 2.28
7.19 5.64 3.49 2.25
7.32 5.88 3.50 2.28
(U.S. Dollars per Kilogram) 7.32 7.26 7.26 6.05 6.01 5.98 3.51 3.51 3.53 2.33 2.32 2.33
7.24 6.15 3.56 2.35
7.32 6.34 3.59 2.37
7.42 6.32 3.60 2.39
7.61 6.31 3.63 2.40
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Live Cattle Trade Export Import Live Hog Trade Export Import
Producer Prices Nebraska Direct Fed Steers Barrow and Gilt Price, National Base 51-52% Lean Equivalent 12-City Broiler Wholesale Retail Prices Beef Pork Broiler Turkey
1,006 1,264
2005
74 3,598
947 1,260
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 339
Argentine Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
49.8
50.1
50.3
51.0
(Million Head) 52.2 53.9
Beef Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2,900 2,927 2,550 352 25 2,927
2,967 2,992 2,576 396 21 2,992
2,985 3,006 2,581 404 21 3,006
3,017 3,038 2,597 420 21 3,038
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
156 156 222 -66 0 156
160 160 226 -66 0 160
171 171 229 -58 0 171
170 170 245 -75 0 170
172 172 251 -79 0 172
177 177 253 -76 0 177
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
870 876 900 -30 6 876
867 873 921 -54 6 873
897 903 961 -64 6 903
938 944 986 -48 6 944
978 984 1,013 -35 6 984
1,010 1,016 1,045 -35 6 1,016
Producer Prices Beef Pork Broiler - Retail
0.86 0.87 1.93
0.96 0.95 1.95
1.00 1.02 1.96
1.01 0.95 1.96
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
55.6
57.2
58.4
59.0
59.1
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,039 3,108 3,187 3,060 3,129 3,208 2,619 2,691 2,741 420 416 446 21 21 21 3,060 3,129 3,208
3,264 3,285 2,787 478 21 3,285
3,333 3,354 2,824 509 21 3,354
3,396 3,417 2,847 548 21 3,417
3,430 3,451 2,864 566 21 3,451
185 185 255 -70 0 185
191 191 262 -71 0 191
195 195 270 -75 0 195
202 202 276 -74 0 202
209 209 284 -74 0 209
1,043 1,049 1,077 -35 6 1,049
1,081 1,087 1,106 -25 6 1,087
1,122 1,128 1,138 -15 6 1,128
1,165 1,171 1,176 -11 6 1,171
1,213 1,219 1,214 -1 6 1,219
(Argentine Peso per Kilogram) 0.96 0.91 0.86 0.96 0.99 1.04 1.96 1.95 1.96
0.82 1.04 1.96
0.80 1.04 1.96
0.81 1.08 1.97
0.84 1.10 1.98
340 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Australian Meat Sup pply and Utilization
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.) Live Cattle Trade Export
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
26.6 2.6 117.2
27.1 2.7 118.3
27.9 2.8 120.2
28.9 2.9 115.8
(Million Head) 29.9 30.8 3.1 3.1 116.2 109.4
31.5 3.1 106.7
31.8 3.1 106.8
31.8 3.1 108.7
31.5 3.2 111.4
31.0 3.2 113.8
870
922
949
960
(Thousand Head) 976 1,016 1,059
1,112
1,177
1,252
1,338
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,077 2,124 2,147 2,157 2,204 2,227 737 753 770 1,340 1,370 1,376 80 81 82 2,157 2,204 2,227
2,150 2,231 784 1,365 82 2,231
2,137 2,220 796 1,341 83 2,220
2,116 2,198 806 1,310 83 2,198
2,079 2,162 812 1,267 83 2,162
Beef Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,953 1,979 690 1,210 79 1,979
1,937 2,016 692 1,247 78 2,016
1,982 2,060 709 1,273 79 2,060
2,031 2,109 710 1,320 79 2,109
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
360 360 350 10 0 360
377 377 344 34 0 377
395 395 358 37 0 395
401 401 364 37 0 401
402 402 381 21 0 402
401 401 385 15 0 401
403 403 389 14 0 403
405 405 396 9 0 405
407 407 403 4 0 407
407 407 410 -2 0 407
407 407 418 -10 0 407
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
573 598 565 13 20 598
589 609 566 23 20 609
608 628 588 20 20 628
626 646 592 33 20 646
649 669 612 37 20 669
666 686 623 43 20 686
684 704 635 49 20 704
701 721 645 56 20 721
719 739 656 64 20 739
729 749 670 59 20 749
739 759 683 56 20 759
Lamb and Mutton Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
633 639 259 380 0 639
598 598 283 311 4 598
599 603 273 326 4 603
557 561 301 256 4 561
568 572 279 288 4 572
581 585 282 299 4 585
597 601 286 311 4 601
611 615 292 319 4 615
622 626 299 323 4 626
637 641 302 334 4 641
651 655 309 343 4 655
Producer Prices Beef Saleyard Pork Saleyard Poultry Farm Lamb Saleyard
213 240 359 187
250 260 366 146
249 268 363 200
237 246 356 133
(Australian Cents per Kilogram) 217 202 187 244 249 255 353 351 349 211 213 214
176 254 349 211
170 254 348 207
171 259 349 217
176 263 350 217
1,041 842 359 725
1,148 866 366 614
1,148 879 363 754
1,115 824 356 575
927 847 349 800
906 845 348 790
910 859 349 814
925 866 350 817
Retail Prices Beef Pork Poultry Sheep
1,057 825 353 779
1,010 838 351 801
963 850 349 808
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 341
Brazilian Meat Supp ply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
146.3 31.9
150.9 31.8
154.9 31.0
158.5 30.4
(Million Head) 161.4 163.8 30.7 30.8
Beef Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
6,450 6,452 5,879 568 5 6,452
6,626 6,631 6,048 578 5 6,631
6,816 6,821 6,125 691 5 6,821
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,950 1,955 1,866 84 5 1,955
2,066 2,071 1,913 152 5 2,071
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
5,860 6,010 4,990 870 150 6,010
2.40 1.70 0.75
Producer Prices Beef Pork Broiler - Wholesale
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
165.7 30.8
167.6 30.8
169.2 31.2
170.7 31.5
172.0 31.5
7,036 7,040 6,196 840 5 7,040
(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,199 7,345 7,414 7,204 7,350 7,419 6,338 6,485 6,636 861 860 778 5 5 5 7,204 7,350 7,419
7,483 7,488 6,772 711 5 7,488
7,554 7,559 6,892 662 5 7,559
7,640 7,645 6,991 649 5 7,645
7,723 7,728 7,075 648 5 7,728
2,159 2,164 1,960 199 5 2,164
2,174 2,179 2,045 129 5 2,179
2,219 2,224 2,086 133 5 2,224
2,264 2,269 2,108 156 5 2,269
2,318 2,323 2,129 189 5 2,323
2,347 2,352 2,165 182 5 2,352
2,371 2,376 2,203 168 5 2,376
2,413 2,418 2,238 175 5 2,418
2,440 2,445 2,277 163 5 2,445
6,014 6,164 5,206 858 100 6,164
6,248 6,348 5,323 924 100 6,348
6,466 6,566 5,441 1,025 100 6,566
6,671 6,771 5,516 1,155 100 6,771
6,815 6,915 5,640 1,175 100 6,915
6,962 7,062 5,756 1,206 100 7,062
7,109 7,209 5,864 1,245 100 7,209
7,245 7,345 5,990 1,255 100 7,345
7,382 7,482 6,138 1,243 100 7,482
7,516 7,616 6,281 1,235 100 7,616
3.01 2.02 0.92
3.54 2.42 1.12
4.01 2.44 1.31
(Reais per Kilogram) 4.25 4.33 4.44 2.69 2.94 3.25 1.52 1.64 1.79
4.58 3.44 1.95
4.78 3.62 2.10
5.12 3.93 2.27
5.54 4.21 2.45
342 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Bulgarian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
0.7 1.7
0.7 1.6
0.7 1.5
0.7 1.4
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
95 100 110 -18 8 100
90 98 111 -18 5 98
88 93 114 -26 5 93
88 93 114 -26 5 93
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
245 251 253 -3 1 251
241 242 255 -14 1 242
237 238 257 -20 1 238
231 232 262 -31 1 232
231 232 263 -32 1 232
233 234 263 -31 1 234
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
100 105 110 -9 3 104
103 106 112 -8 2 106
110 112 114 -2 0 112
111 111 118 -7 0 111
112 112 119 -7 0 112
114 114 120 -6 0 114
2,458 2,908 2,451
2,379 2,874 2,426
2,217 2,893 2,440
2,179 2,698 2,298
Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.8 1.5
0.8 1.5
0.8 1.5
0.8 1.6
0.9 1.6
(Thousand Metric Tons) 85 83 82 90 88 87 117 121 124 -32 -37 -42 5 5 5 90 88 87
81 86 127 -46 5 86
81 86 129 -47 5 86
83 88 129 -46 5 88
85 90 130 -44 5 90
235 236 263 -28 1 236
238 239 264 -27 1 239
240 241 266 -26 1 241
244 245 266 -22 1 245
247 248 267 -20 1 248
117 117 121 -4 0 117
118 118 123 -5 0 118
118 118 124 -6 0 118
120 120 126 -6 0 120
122 122 128 -6 0 122
(Leva per Kilogram) 1,977 1,815 1,659 2,688 2,745 2,814 2,291 2,332 2,383
1,532 2,804 2,375
1,454 2,790 2,365
1,456 2,843 2,404
1,489 2,873 2,425
(Million Head) 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.5
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 343
Canadian Meat Sup pply and Utilization
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
12.7 12.3
12.6 12.5
12.6 13.3
12.9 15.5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Million Head) 13.3 13.8 14.8 14.9
14.2 16.1
14.4 17.3
14.5 16.9
14.5 16.6
14.5 17.5
(Thousand Head) 727 724 290 291
724 291
722 291
723 291
722 291
714 293
Live Cattle Trade Export Import Live Hog Trade Export Import
925 275
777 274
760 279
739 286
4,000 10
3,552 10
3,469 10
3,349 10
3,265 10
3,233 10
3,212 10
3,215 10
3,201 10
3,164 10
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,260 1,292 979 285 28 1,292
1,268 1,296 972 296 28 1,296
1,265 1,293 968 296 28 1,293
1,281 1,309 999 283 28 1,309
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,313 1,361 1,397 1,341 1,389 1,425 1,031 1,047 1,060 282 313 336 28 28 28 1,341 1,389 1,425
1,417 1,445 1,089 328 28 1,445
1,427 1,455 1,114 313 28 1,455
1,429 1,457 1,121 307 28 1,457
1,420 1,448 1,127 292 28 1,448
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,675 1,708 998 680 30 1,708
1,773 1,803 1,024 750 30 1,803
1,802 1,832 1,091 710 30 1,832
1,936 1,966 1,061 874 30 1,966
2,029 2,059 1,052 977 30 2,059
2,066 2,096 1,083 982 30 2,096
2,064 2,094 1,125 939 30 2,094
2,126 2,156 1,117 1,009 30 2,156
2,195 2,225 1,110 1,085 30 2,225
2,205 2,235 1,144 1,061 30 2,235
2,202 2,232 1,183 1,019 30 2,232
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
890 910 909 -18 19 910
906 925 933 -28 20 925
947 967 936 11 20 967
978 998 974 4 20 998
992 1,012 1,001 -9 20 1,012
1,005 1,025 1,011 -6 20 1,025
1,025 1,045 1,018 6 20 1,045
1,044 1,064 1,043 1 20 1,064
1,065 1,085 1,069 -4 20 1,085
1,086 1,106 1,082 4 20 1,106
1,114 1,134 1,096 18 20 1,134
Prices Beef and Veal Pork Broiler - Wholesale
95 73 117
100 65 117
99 51 115
97 62 112
(Canadian Dollars per Cwt) 92 88 84 68 62 55 111 110 109
82 60 109
80 66 109
80 61 109
80 56 108
3,230 10
344 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
China - Mainland Meat Me and Egg Supply and Utilization FAPRI Adjusted Dat ata 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.)
111.5 437.6 230.1
114.2 475.1 224.8
122.6 513.4 230.8
124.1 534.9 235.1
(Million Head) 131.5 132.2 544.5 549.4 237.0 236.9
Beef Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2,338 9 2,347 2,307 40 0 2,347
2,485 9 2,494 2,441 53 0 2,494
2,595 9 2,604 2,545 59 0 2,604
2,690 9 2,699 2,637 62 0 2,699
Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
28,843 120 28,963 28,853 110 0 28,963
29,951 119 30,070 29,960 111 0 30,070
30,809 125 30,933 30,828 105 0 30,933
31,467 113 31,580 31,463 117 0 31,580
31,990 111 32,101 31,981 120 0 32,101
32,472 118 32,590 32,478 112 0 32,590
Poultry Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
5,673 1,210 6,883 6,488 395 0 6,883
5,703 1,214 6,918 6,524 394 0 6,918
5,766 1,215 6,980 6,582 398 0 6,980
5,881 1,217 7,099 6,700 399 0 7,099
6,023 1,226 7,249 6,859 390 0 7,249
-770
-775
-772
-773
1,452 3 1,455 1,446 9 0 1,455
1,475 3 1,478 1,469 9 0 1,478
1,506 3 1,509 1,500 9 0 1,509
1,538 3 1,541 1,532 9 0 1,541
Broiler Net Trade Lamb and Mutton Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
139.0 553.8 235.6
139.1 559.5 233.7
145.4 566.6 231.8
145.1 574.7 230.5
151.0 582.9 230.0
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,777 2,862 2,951 9 9 9 2,785 2,871 2,960 2,732 2,825 2,921 54 46 39 0 0 0 2,785 2,871 2,960
3,042 9 3,051 3,017 34 0 3,051
3,127 9 3,137 3,107 30 0 3,137
3,212 9 3,221 3,194 28 0 3,221
3,296 9 3,306 3,280 26 0 3,306
32,980 127 33,107 33,004 104 0 33,107
33,532 124 33,656 33,550 106 0 33,656
34,066 121 34,187 34,079 109 0 34,187
34,565 126 34,691 34,587 104 0 34,691
35,036 131 35,167 35,067 100 0 35,167
6,174 1,235 7,408 7,027 381 0 7,408
6,331 1,244 7,574 7,201 374 0 7,574
6,492 1,251 7,743 7,375 368 0 7,743
6,640 1,258 7,898 7,534 364 0 7,898
6,773 1,264 8,037 7,677 360 0 8,037
6,897 1,270 8,166 7,810 357 0 8,166
-789
-805
-819
-832
-842
-850
-859
1,567 3 1,570 1,561 9 0 1,570
1,592 3 1,595 1,586 9 0 1,595
1,617 3 1,620 1,611 9 0 1,620
1,642 3 1,645 1,636 9 0 1,645
1,666 3 1,669 1,660 9 0 1,669
1,691 3 1,694 1,685 9 0 1,694
1,717 3 1,720 1,711 9 0 1,720
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 345
China - Mainland Meat Me and Egg Supply and Utilization (continued) FAPRI Adjusted Dat ata 2000
2001
2002
2003
16,070 0 16,070 16,024 46 0 16,070
15,978 0 15,978 15,930 47 0 15,978
16,107 0 16,107 16,057 50 0 16,107
Producer Prices Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Egg
14.71 9.73 12.83 17.53 6.22
13.60 8.74 13.11 17.60 6.30
Retail Prices Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Eggs
15.71 16.92 13.07 19.72 7.29
14.53 15.80 13.35 19.80 7.39
Eggs Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
16,359 0 16,359 16,308 51 0 16,359
(Thousand Metric Tons) 16,648 16,951 17,263 0 0 0 16,648 16,951 17,263 16,603 16,910 17,225 45 42 38 0 0 0 16,648 16,951 17,263
17,574 0 17,574 17,539 35 0 17,574
17,850 0 17,850 17,817 33 0 17,850
18,108 0 18,109 18,077 31 0 18,109
18,366 0 18,366 18,337 30 0 18,366
13.83 8.59 13.63 18.18 6.55
14.35 8.94 14.27 19.11 6.90
(Yuan per Kilogram) 14.91 15.58 16.40 9.46 9.98 10.48 14.90 15.52 16.13 20.25 21.51 22.88 7.28 7.67 8.07
17.38 10.95 16.78 24.35 8.50
18.37 11.35 17.37 25.75 8.93
19.41 11.69 17.94 27.06 9.33
20.52 12.02 18.51 28.32 9.75
14.77 15.63 13.87 20.47 7.68
15.33 16.02 14.52 21.54 8.08
15.92 16.60 15.15 22.85 8.52
18.57 18.28 17.03 27.56 9.94
19.64 18.73 17.62 29.18 10.43
20.75 19.11 18.19 30.68 10.91
21.95 19.48 18.76 32.13 11.39
16.64 17.20 15.76 24.30 8.97
17.53 17.75 16.38 25.88 9.44
346 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
China - Mainland Meat Me and Egg Supply and Utilization Official Data 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.)
142.9 449.2 270.6
146.3 487.7 264.3
157.1 527.0 271.4
159.0 549.0 276.4
(Million Head) 168.5 169.4 558.9 563.9 278.6 278.5
Beef Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
5,350 9 5,359 5,319 40 0 5,359
5,678 9 5,687 5,634 53 0 5,687
5,927 9 5,936 5,877 59 0 5,936
6,143 9 6,152 6,090 62 0 6,152
Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
41,600 120 41,720 41,610 110 0 41,720
43,197 119 43,317 43,206 111 0 43,317
44,437 125 44,561 44,456 105 0 44,561
45,381 113 45,494 45,377 117 0 45,494
46,134 111 46,245 46,126 120 0 46,245
46,833 118 46,951 46,839 112 0 46,951
Poultry Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
11,350 1,210 12,560 12,165 395 0 12,560
11,411 1,214 12,625 12,231 394 0 12,625
11,530 1,215 12,745 12,347 398 0 12,745
11,756 1,217 12,973 12,574 399 0 12,973
12,037 1,226 13,263 12,873 390 0 13,263
-770
-775
-772
-773
2,650 10 2,660 2,654 6 0 2,660
2,698 3 2,701 2,692 9 0 2,701
2,754 3 2,757 2,749 9 0 2,758
22,040 0 22,040 21,982 58 0 22,040
21,907 0 21,908 21,860 47 0 21,908
22,084 0 22,084 22,034 50 0 22,084
Broiler Net Trade Lamb and Mutton Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use Eggs Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
178.1 568.5 277.0
178.3 574.3 274.8
186.3 581.6 272.6
185.9 589.9 271.0
193.5 598.3 270.4
(Thousand Metric Tons) 6,348 6,549 6,758 9 9 9 6,356 6,558 6,767 6,303 6,512 6,728 54 46 39 0 0 0 6,356 6,558 6,767
6,970 9 6,979 6,945 34 0 6,979
7,169 9 7,178 7,148 30 0 7,178
7,365 9 7,374 7,347 28 0 7,374
7,560 9 7,569 7,543 26 0 7,569
47,570 127 47,697 47,593 104 0 47,697
48,364 124 48,488 48,382 106 0 48,488
49,133 121 49,255 49,146 109 0 49,255
49,855 126 49,981 49,876 104 0 49,981
50,536 131 50,667 50,568 100 0 50,667
12,337 1,235 13,572 13,191 381 0 13,572
12,650 1,244 13,893 13,519 374 0 13,893
12,967 1,251 14,219 13,851 368 0 14,219
13,259 1,258 14,517 14,153 364 0 14,517
13,522 1,264 14,786 14,426 360 0 14,786
13,766 1,270 15,036 14,679 357 0 15,036
-789
-805
-819
-832
-842
-850
-859
2,813 3 2,816 2,807 9 0 2,816
2,865 3 2,868 2,859 9 0 2,868
2,912 3 2,915 2,906 9 0 2,915
2,957 3 2,960 2,952 9 0 2,961
3,003 3 3,006 2,997 9 0 3,006
3,047 3 3,050 3,041 9 0 3,050
3,092 3 3,095 3,086 9 0 3,095
3,141 3 3,144 3,135 9 0 3,144
22,429 0 22,430 22,379 51 0 22,430
22,827 0 22,827 22,782 45 0 22,827
23,243 0 23,244 23,202 42 0 23,244
23,672 0 23,672 23,634 38 0 23,672
24,099 0 24,099 24,065 35 0 24,099
24,478 0 24,479 24,445 33 0 24,479
24,833 0 24,833 24,802 31 0 24,833
25,186 0 25,187 25,157 30 0 25,187
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 347
China - Hong Kong Meat Supply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
1.7 110.0
1.8 116.0
1.8 119.0
1.8 120.2
(Thousand Head) 1.8 1.9 1.9 119.3 119.4 120.4
1.9 120.9
1.9 120.3
1.9 120.4
1.9 121.1
Live Animal Trade Cattle Import Swine Import
64.9 1,891
71.0 1,982
73.5 2,019
74.9 2,085
73.3 2,080
69.2 1,960
67.4 1,964
66.1 1,977
65.3 1,954
64.6 1,923
Beef and Veal Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
18 72 90 84 6 0 90
13 76 89 84 5 0 89
14 77 91 86 5 0 91
14 79 93 88 5 0 93
(Thousand Metric Tons) 14 13 13 82 86 89 96 99 102 91 94 97 5 5 5 0 0 0 96 99 102
13 92 105 100 5 0 105
12 96 108 103 6 0 108
12 98 110 104 6 0 110
12 100 112 106 6 0 112
Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
165 264 429 385 44 0 429
170 264 435 395 40 0 435
171 275 446 405 41 0 446
177 271 448 410 38 0 448
177 273 450 414 36 0 450
173 286 459 421 38 0 459
168 301 469 428 41 0 469
169 305 473 432 41 0 473
170 307 477 437 41 0 477
168 317 485 444 41 0 485
165 329 494 451 43 0 494
Broiler Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
65 1,037 1,102 351 751 0 1,102
66 1,040 1,106 357 749 0 1,106
67 1,043 1,110 363 747 0 1,110
68 1,046 1,114 370 745 0 1,114
70 1,049 1,119 376 742 0 1,119
70 1,052 1,122 382 740 0 1,122
71 1,055 1,126 388 738 0 1,126
72 1,058 1,130 393 736 0 1,130
73 1,060 1,134 399 734 0 1,134
75 1,063 1,137 405 733 0 1,137
76 1,065 1,141 410 731 0 1,141
Retail Price Beef Pork Broiler
56.28 39.62 35.96
62.31 39.17 36.67
64.19 37.75 36.93
(Hong Kong Dollars per Kilogram) 65.88 65.66 65.36 64.99 39.84 42.06 42.14 41.71 37.06 37.17 37.16 37.30
65.08 43.63 37.53
65.69 45.49 37.70
67.22 45.43 37.98
69.15 45.03 38.32
71.3 2,021
348 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Czech Republic Mea eat Supply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
1.5 3.5
1.4 3.2
1.4 3.2
1.4 3.3
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
228 235 232 -3 6 235
216 222 217 -1 6 222
207 213 219 -12 6 213
200 206 221 -20 6 206
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
614 627 624 -10 13 627
594 607 616 -22 13 607
599 612 619 -20 13 612
581 594 631 -49 13 594
578 591 635 -56 13 591
583 596 635 -52 13 596
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
184 184 196 -12 0 184
184 184 205 -21 0 184
181 181 215 -34 0 181
176 176 221 -45 0 176
172 172 228 -56 0 172
173 173 233 -60 0 173
8,562 5,159 3,620
8,497 5,145 3,254
8,196 5,258 3,012
7,818 4,632 2,783
Producer Prices Beef Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.4 3.5
1.4 3.5
1.5 3.5
1.5 3.6
1.5 3.6
(Thousand Metric Tons) 191 188 185 197 194 192 224 227 231 -33 -39 -45 6 6 6 197 194 192
183 190 233 -50 6 190
183 190 235 -52 6 190
184 190 237 -53 6 190
188 195 237 -49 6 195
587 600 635 -47 13 600
587 600 638 -51 13 600
590 603 641 -52 13 603
594 607 644 -50 13 607
600 613 645 -45 13 613
179 179 238 -60 0 179
185 185 243 -58 0 185
192 192 248 -56 0 192
195 195 255 -61 0 195
203 203 260 -57 0 203
(Koruny per 100 Kilogram) 6,981 6,576 6,198 4,458 4,600 4,781 2,562 2,510 2,489
5,840 4,737 2,451
5,607 4,683 2,405
5,383 4,676 2,268
5,463 4,745 2,268
(Million Head) 1.4 1.4 3.4 3.5
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 349
Estonian Meat Supp ply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
18 18 21 -3 0 18
18 18 23 -5 0 18
18 18 24 -5 0 18
19 19 24 -5 0 19
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
32 32 46 -14 0 32
32 32 46 -14 0 32
34 34 46 -13 0 34
34 34 47 -13 0 34
34 34 48 -13 0 34
34 34 48 -14 0 34
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
8 8 19 -11 0 8
7 7 20 -13 0 7
8 8 21 -13 0 8
9 9 21 -12 0 9
9 9 22 -12 0 9
10 10 22 -13 0 10
27.56 35.32 31.48
22.94 33.02 28.30
21.65 33.17 27.44
21.33 31.60 27.17
Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.2 0.3
0.2 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
(Thousand Metric Tons) 20 21 22 20 21 22 25 27 28 -6 -6 -6 0 0 0 20 21 22
23 23 29 -7 0 23
24 24 30 -7 0 24
25 25 31 -6 0 25
27 27 32 -5 0 27
34 34 48 -13 0 34
34 34 48 -14 0 34
34 34 48 -14 0 34
34 34 49 -15 0 34
34 34 49 -15 0 34
10 10 23 -13 0 10
11 11 23 -13 0 11
11 11 24 -13 0 11
12 12 24 -13 0 12
12 12 25 -13 0 12
(Krooni per Kilogram) 19.71 17.83 16.52 31.53 31.67 32.17 26.97 26.52 26.39
15.41 32.02 26.28
14.65 31.82 26.12
14.48 32.12 25.99
14.57 32.24 25.91
(Million Head) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
350 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
European Union Me eat Supply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.)
82.3 124.3 97.9
81.9 123.2 97.1
81.4 121.1 98.4
80.8 121.8 98.7
(Million Head) 80.2 80.0 125.3 125.5 99.9 99.0
Beef and Veal Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports (Meat) Exports (Meat Equivalent) Ending Stocks Total Use
7,481 372 7,919 7,199 600 663 13 7,919
6,702 367 7,189 6,619 520 561 0 7,189
6,690 368 7,108 6,566 517 558 0 7,108
6,990 366 7,382 6,837 520 562 0 7,382
Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
18,061 76 18,555 16,940 1,200 491 18,555
18,187 77 18,678 17,203 1,063 488 18,678
18,499 79 18,988 17,394 1,183 489 18,988
18,719 77 19,208 17,444 1,349 492 19,208
18,720 76 19,212 17,541 1,255 493 19,212
18,664 77 19,157 17,586 1,155 493 19,157
Broiler Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
6,026 182 6,422 5,680 585 157 6,422
6,416 183 6,756 6,018 582 156 6,756
6,585 184 6,925 6,185 583 157 6,925
6,473 183 6,813 6,058 598 158 6,813
6,413 184 6,754 5,994 602 158 6,754
Lamb and Mutton Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,126 246 1,396 1,369 3 24 1,396
1,128 283 1,435 1,407 3 24 1,434
1,116 267 1,407 1,382 3 24 1,409
1,097 318 1,439 1,412 3 24 1,439
1,082 284 1,390 1,363 3 24 1,390
Producer Prices † Beef Pork Poultry Sheep
236 142 112 357
211 149 120 323
209 147 116 338
202 138 113 304
ght equivalent of live cattle trade. * Meat equivalent is the carcass weigh † Producer prices are projections of th the MLC reference price.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
79.8 124.4 98.7
79.6 123.8 98.6
79.5 124.7 98.6
79.3 125.4 98.6
79.0 125.0 98.2
(Thousand Metric Tons) 7,193 7,209 7,201 372 376 377 7,591 7,610 7,603 7,055 7,080 7,036 511 505 542 551 545 582 0 0 0 7,591 7,610 7,603
7,192 378 7,595 6,959 612 651 0 7,595
7,172 377 7,574 6,916 633 672 0 7,574
7,172 376 7,574 6,850 674 714 25 7,574
7,164 376 7,590 6,805 734 775 25 7,590
18,730 78 19,223 17,660 1,149 492 19,223
18,855 78 19,347 17,835 1,096 493 19,347
18,944 77 19,437 17,983 1,037 493 19,437
19,080 78 19,573 18,058 1,101 492 19,573
19,326 78 19,818 18,130 1,275 492 19,818
6,414 185 6,757 5,995 604 158 6,757
6,480 185 6,824 6,060 605 158 6,824
6,562 186 6,906 6,139 609 158 6,906
6,632 186 6,977 6,206 612 158 6,977
6,726 187 7,071 6,296 616 158 7,071
6,808 187 7,153 6,372 622 158 7,153
1,083 295 1,402 1,374 3 24 1,401
1,076 307 1,407 1,380 3 24 1,407
1,063 321 1,408 1,381 3 24 1,408
1,046 336 1,406 1,379 3 24 1,406
1,030 345 1,399 1,372 3 24 1,399
1,016 358 1,399 1,372 3 24 1,399
(Euro per 100 Kilograms) 222 230 227 136 137 138 113 114 116 350 344 340
221 136 117 334
211 135 119 330
208 138 121 336
208 140 122 336
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 351
Hungarian Meat Sup upply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
0.9 5.3
0.9 5.4
0.9 5.7
0.9 5.8
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
57 57 53 4 0 57
58 58 53 7 -2 58
59 59 55 6 -1 59
60 60 55 5 0 60
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
463 488 364 99 25 488
469 494 367 101 25 494
492 517 368 124 25 517
489 514 378 111 25 514
492 517 381 111 25 517
495 520 382 114 25 520
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
215 225 175 40 10 225
212 222 181 36 5 222
218 223 187 32 5 223
227 232 190 38 5 232
234 239 193 41 5 239
241 246 198 43 5 246
39,766 34,943 24,197
42,008 36,189 23,523
42,635 38,112 23,294
43,118 35,588 23,251
Farm Price Beef Pork Broiler
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.0 6.2
1.0 6.1
1.0 6.3
1.1 6.4
1.1 6.4
(Thousand Metric Tons) 60 59 60 60 59 60 57 59 61 2 0 -2 0 0 0 60 59 60
59 59 63 -5 0 59
59 59 65 -7 0 59
59 59 67 -8 0 59
59 59 68 -9 0 59
503 528 381 121 25 528
501 526 385 116 25 526
503 528 388 115 25 528
506 531 390 116 25 531
511 536 394 117 25 536
251 256 202 49 5 256
256 261 206 50 5 261
263 268 210 53 5 268
269 274 215 54 5 274
280 285 220 60 5 285
(Forint per 100 Kilogram) 39,623 36,784 34,941 35,289 36,042 37,502 22,726 22,267 22,383
31,434 36,439 21,515
29,766 35,940 21,124
28,713 36,087 20,500
29,199 36,527 20,501
(Million Head) 0.9 1.0 6.1 6.2
352 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Indonesian Meat Su upply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Sheep Inventories (Beg.)
11.9 10.1 8.2
11.9 10.4 8.4
11.8 10.8 8.3
11.9 11.2 9.0
(Million Head) 12.1 12.4 11.4 11.7 8.6 9.9
12.7 12.0 9.7
13.1 12.3 11.2
13.5 12.6 11.0
13.9 12.8 12.7
14.3 13.1 12.7
Live Cattle Import
200
203
213
226
(Thousand Head) 254 292
334
379
426
470
515
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
335 335 355 -20 0 335
357 357 362 -5 0 357
355 355 380 -26 0 355
355 355 373 -18 0 355
(Thousand Metric Tons) 358 363 370 358 363 370 401 415 428 -43 -52 -58 0 0 0 358 363 370
377 377 436 -59 0 377
386 386 443 -57 0 386
395 395 452 -57 0 395
405 405 460 -55 0 405
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
759 759 760 -1 0 759
792 792 769 23 0 792
826 826 794 31 0 826
836 836 820 17 0 836
853 853 854 -1 0 853
876 876 873 3 0 876
900 900 892 8 0 900
914 914 915 -1 0 914
925 925 939 -14 0 925
942 942 962 -20 0 942
965 965 984 -19 0 965
Poultry Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
734 734 741 -7 0 734
792 792 777 15 0 792
820 820 848 -28 0 820
848 848 842 6 0 848
899 899 920 -21 0 899
935 935 952 -17 0 935
960 960 984 -24 0 960
979 979 1,012 -34 0 979
1,004 1,004 1,042 -38 0 1,004
1,034 1,034 1,087 -52 0 1,034
1,080 1,080 1,122 -41 0 1,080
Lamb and Mutton Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
66 66 67 -1 0 66
54 54 78 -24 0 54
63 63 73 -10 0 63
47 47 87 -40 0 47
63 63 77 -13 0 63
58 58 80 -21 0 58
65 65 83 -18 0 65
58 58 86 -28 0 58
63 63 91 -28 0 63
59 59 93 -34 0 59
65 65 97 -33 0 65
Retail Price Beef Pork Broiler Lamb and Mutton
26,786 15,225 10,567 17,591
28,772 16,394 10,956 15,145
29,050 17,128 10,918 18,528
28,785 15,989 10,720 14,607
(Rupiah per Kilogram) 28,583 28,556 28,179 16,404 17,237 17,962 10,967 11,242 11,403 19,956 20,603 21,022
27,488 17,904 11,368 20,795
27,043 17,807 11,306 20,503
27,026 18,117 11,268 21,062
27,686 18,636 11,509 21,350
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 353
Japanese Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
4.59 1.07 0.99 9.81
4.53 1.06 0.99 9.76
4.48 1.06 0.98 9.66
4.44 1.07 0.98 9.71
(Million Head) 4.41 4.39 1.07 1.07 0.97 0.97 9.56 9.56
Beef and Veal Production Wagyu Dairy Imports Total Supply Consumption Wagyu Dairy Imported Beef Ending Stocks Wagyu Dairy Imported Beef Total Use
534 232 302 1,000 1,680 1,518 232 302 984 162 5 10 147 1,680
526 227 299 981 1,669 1,510 227 299 984 158 5 10 143 1,669
519 224 295 990 1,667 1,509 224 295 990 158 5 10 143 1,667
Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use
1,270 880 2,240 2,145 95 2,240
1,231 894 2,219 2,123 97 2,219
Broiler Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,060 550 1,705 1,594 4 107 1,705
Producer Prices Wagyu Beef - Farm Dairy Beef - Farm Pork - Wholesale Broiler - Wholesale
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Wagyu Cows (Beg.) Dairy Cows (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Retail Prices Wagyu Beef Dairy Beef Imported Beef Pork Broiler
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4.37 1.06 0.96 9.72
4.35 1.03 0.96 9.72
4.33 1.00 0.95 9.60
4.29 0.97 0.95 9.57
4.25 0.94 0.94 9.64
515 222 293 1,011 1,684 1,525 222 293 1,011 159 5 10 144 1,684
(Thousand Metric Tons) 511 507 505 221 221 221 290 287 284 1,037 1,050 1,062 1,706 1,717 1,729 1,546 1,556 1,566 221 221 221 290 287 284 1,035 1,048 1,061 160 161 163 5 5 5 10 10 10 145 146 148 1,706 1,717 1,729
504 221 282 1,080 1,746 1,582 221 282 1,079 164 5 10 149 1,746
501 220 281 1,095 1,760 1,595 220 281 1,094 165 5 10 150 1,760
497 217 280 1,101 1,763 1,598 217 280 1,101 165 5 10 150 1,763
493 214 279 1,107 1,765 1,600 214 279 1,107 165 5 10 150 1,765
1,221 948 2,265 2,168 97 2,265
1,227 938 2,262 2,165 97 2,262
1,238 923 2,258 2,162 97 2,258
1,237 918 2,252 2,185 67 2,252
1,233 955 2,255 2,197 58 2,255
1,232 956 2,246 2,189 58 2,246
1,237 950 2,244 2,187 57 2,244
1,237 973 2,268 2,210 58 2,268
1,235 1,004 2,297 2,238 58 2,297
1,068 533 1,707 1,598 3 106 1,707
1,057 550 1,713 1,604 3 106 1,713
1,048 572 1,726 1,617 3 106 1,726
1,043 583 1,732 1,623 3 106 1,732
1,031 595 1,732 1,623 3 106 1,732
1,020 605 1,731 1,622 3 106 1,731
1,012 615 1,733 1,624 3 106 1,733
1,006 626 1,738 1,628 3 107 1,738
1,002 637 1,745 1,635 3 107 1,745
1,000 648 1,754 1,644 3 107 1,754
1,846 879 479 200
2,001 957 435 213
2,019 988 436 219
2,041 1,016 461 221
(Yen per Kilogram) 1,991 1,898 1,811 1,020 1,003 990 471 456 453 224 224 225
1,773 994 468 227
1,775 1,001 479 230
1,816 1,010 474 233
1,883 1,026 473 237
558 372 190 164 116
597 401 224 151 124
615 422 232 149 128
624 437 231 155 130
537 427 193 158 133
532 428 189 161 134
539 431 190 161 136
557 437 193 160 139
(Yen per 100 gram) 613 586 442 436 221 210 160 155 131 132
556 429 200 153 132
354 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Latvian Meat Supply ly and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
405 405
338 420
334 436
339 429
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
21 21 23 -2 0 21
22 22 23 0 0 22
24 24 23 0 0 24
25 25 23 2 0 25
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
33 33 42 -9 0 33
34 34 43 -8 0 34
36 36 43 -7 0 36
35 35 44 -9 0 35
34 34 44 -10 0 34
34 34 44 -10 0 34
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
7 7 20 -13 0 7
8 8 21 -13 0 8
8 8 21 -13 0 8
8 8 21 -13 0 8
9 9 22 -13 0 9
9 9 22 -13 0 9
0.75 1.13 1.09
0.80 1.16 1.07
0.78 1.21 1.05
0.78 1.12 1.04
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
319 422
315 420
326 416
338 416
337 416
(Thousand Metric Tons) 26 26 26 26 26 26 24 25 26 1 1 0 0 0 0 26 26 26
25 25 27 -2 0 25
25 25 28 -3 0 25
24 24 28 -4 0 24
25 25 28 -4 0 25
35 35 44 -10 0 35
34 34 45 -10 0 34
34 34 45 -11 0 34
34 34 45 -11 0 34
34 34 46 -12 0 34
9 9 22 -13 0 9
9 9 22 -13 0 9
9 9 22 -13 0 9
10 10 23 -13 0 10
10 10 23 -13 0 10
(Lats per Kilogram) 0.69 0.62 0.55 1.11 1.14 1.18 1.03 1.02 1.01
0.50 1.17 1.01
0.46 1.16 1.01
0.46 1.19 1.00
0.48 1.21 1.00
(Thousand Head) 334 324 421 420
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 355
Lithuanian Meat Su upply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
898 936
839 1,327
813 1,358
795 1,347
(Thousand Head) 777 758 750 1,341 1,354 1,379
755 1,387
770 1,388
792 1,404
792 1,422
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
80 80 82 -2 0 80
80 80 86 -6 0 80
81 81 87 -6 0 81
84 84 87 -3 0 84
(Thousand Metric Tons) 86 87 89 86 87 89 89 90 92 -3 -3 -4 0 0 0 86 87 89
90 90 94 -4 0 90
92 92 95 -3 0 92
95 95 95 0 0 95
99 99 96 3 0 99
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
100 100 104 -4 0 100
103 103 105 -2 0 103
105 105 105 0 0 105
105 105 107 -3 0 105
104 104 108 -4 0 104
105 105 108 -3 0 105
107 107 108 -1 0 107
108 108 109 -1 0 108
108 108 110 -2 0 108
109 109 110 -1 0 109
110 110 111 -1 0 110
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
26 26 32 -5 0 26
29 29 33 -4 0 29
30 30 35 -5 0 30
31 31 36 -4 0 31
33 33 37 -4 0 33
34 34 37 -4 0 34
35 35 38 -3 0 35
36 36 39 -3 0 36
38 38 40 -2 0 38
39 39 41 -1 0 39
41 41 42 -1 0 41
7.40 8.84 4.55
8.33 9.33 4.65
7.84 9.39 4.34
7.73 8.81 4.24
(Litai per Kilogram) 7.13 6.65 6.18 8.78 8.95 9.16 4.17 4.11 4.08
5.81 9.13 4.06
5.57 9.08 4.03
5.58 9.24 4.02
5.68 9.33 4.02
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2005
356 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Mexican Meat Supp ply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
23.7 10.7
22.4 10.6
21.3 11.1
20.5 11.6
(Million Head) 20.6 21.0 11.4 11.6
1,235 135
1,331 130
1,369 124
1,383 121
60
62
63
68
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,900 1,900 2,300 -400 0 1,900
1,899 1,899 2,277 -378 0 1,899
1,886 1,886 2,275 -389 0 1,886
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,010 1,010 1,105 -95 0 1,010
1,051 1,051 1,180 -129 0 1,051
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,891 1,891 2,050 -159 0 1,891
Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2,307 1,741 1,270
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.) Live Cattle Trade Export Import Live Hog Import
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
21.5 12.5
22.2 13.2
23.0 13.4
23.8 13.8
24.4 14.7
(Thousand Head) 1,362 1,345 1,324 118 116 114
1,308 112
1,303 111
1,314 109
1,332 108
76
80
85
87
89
1,786 1,786 2,333 -547 0 1,786
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,848 1,979 1,974 1,848 1,979 1,974 2,408 2,458 2,506 -560 -480 -533 0 0 0 1,848 1,979 1,974
2,039 2,039 2,580 -541 0 2,039
2,122 2,122 2,648 -525 0 2,122
2,200 2,200 2,681 -481 0 2,200
2,260 2,260 2,707 -448 0 2,260
1,050 1,050 1,300 -251 0 1,050
1,061 1,061 1,298 -238 0 1,061
1,098 1,098 1,305 -208 0 1,098
1,147 1,147 1,365 -218 0 1,147
1,181 1,181 1,446 -265 0 1,181
1,214 1,214 1,458 -245 0 1,214
1,263 1,263 1,472 -209 0 1,263
1,315 1,315 1,550 -235 0 1,315
1,352 1,352 1,638 -285 0 1,352
1,990 1,990 2,125 -135 0 1,990
2,093 2,093 2,201 -109 0 2,093
2,169 2,169 2,298 -128 0 2,169
2,235 2,235 2,374 -139 0 2,235
2,281 2,281 2,418 -138 0 2,281
2,340 2,340 2,456 -115 0 2,340
2,404 2,404 2,534 -130 0 2,404
2,471 2,471 2,619 -148 0 2,471
2,543 2,543 2,678 -135 0 2,543
2,619 2,619 2,736 -116 0 2,619
2,702 1,697 1,392
3,007 1,572 1,509
3,235 1,873 1,600
(New Peso per 100 Kilograms) 3,279 3,277 3,290 2,103 2,050 1,957 1,672 1,715 1,774
3,311 2,142 1,832
3,367 2,342 1,887
3,495 2,292 1,948
3,653 2,228 2,013
73
2005
75
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 357
New Zealand Meat Supply S and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cattle Inventories (Beg.)
9.1
9.8
10.3
10.8
(Million Head) 11.3 11.8
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
592 645 135 458 52 645
631 683 140 492 51 683
666 717 144 522 51 717
693 745 139 554 52 745
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
49 49 58 -9 0 49
48 48 57 -9 0 48
49 49 61 -11 0 49
49 49 59 -10 0 49
49 49 64 -15 0 49
51 51 65 -14 0 51
Poultry Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Total Use
99 99 95 4 99
96 96 96 1 96
97 97 102 -5 97
97 97 100 -3 97
100 100 107 -8 100
101 101 110 -8 101
259 316 158
294 332 161
297 343 158
Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
12.2
12.5
12.7
12.9
12.9
(Thousand Metric Tons) 711 725 734 763 778 787 147 150 153 563 574 579 53 54 55 763 778 787
738 793 156 582 56 793
741 797 157 583 56 797
746 803 156 590 56 803
749 806 156 594 56 806
53 53 65 -12 0 53
54 54 65 -11 0 54
55 55 66 -11 0 55
57 57 67 -10 0 57
60 60 68 -9 0 60
104 104 112 -8 104
106 106 114 -7 106
109 109 116 -7 109
112 112 118 -6 112
120 120 120 -1 120
(New Zealand Dollars per 100 Kilogram) 289 268 248 228 212 320 323 329 335 335 151 150 147 145 144
202 335 142
202 340 142
206 343 142
358 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Other Eastern Euro opean Meat Supply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
329 329 344 -15 0 329
335 335 347 -13 0 335
342 342 351 -9 0 342
348 348 355 -6 0 348
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
682 682 737 -55 0 682
685 685 744 -59 0 685
691 691 749 -58 0 691
697 697 755 -58 0 697
704 704 760 -56 0 704
712 712 764 -52 0 712
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
143 143 186 -43 0 143
146 146 188 -43 0 146
150 150 190 -40 0 150
154 154 193 -39 0 154
159 159 196 -37 0 159
163 163 198 -35 0 163
H Croatia, Macedonia, and Yugoslavia. Countries included: Albania, Bosnia Herzg,
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Thousand Metric Tons) 354 359 363 354 359 363 360 364 369 -6 -6 -6 0 0 0 354 359 363
367 367 373 -6 0 367
368 368 377 -9 0 368
368 368 381 -13 0 368
367 367 384 -17 0 367
721 721 768 -48 0 721
730 730 772 -43 0 730
737 737 777 -40 0 737
743 743 780 -38 0 743
748 748 784 -36 0 748
167 167 201 -33 0 167
172 172 203 -31 0 172
174 174 205 -31 0 174
175 175 208 -33 0 175
176 176 209 -34 0 176
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 359
Other Former Sovie et Union Meat Supply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
20.7 6.1
20.6 5.9
20.8 5.9
20.8 5.9
(Million Head) 21.0 21.1 6.0 6.0
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Total Use
1,329 1,329 1,449 -121 1,329
1,328 1,328 1,447 -119 1,328
1,367 1,367 1,462 -95 1,367
1,382 1,382 1,482 -100 1,382
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Total Use
474 474 473 0 474
473 473 479 -6 473
477 477 482 -6 477
486 486 490 -4 486
493 493 496 -3 493
501 501 501 0 501
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Total Use
168 168 290 -122 168
170 170 295 -125 170
179 179 298 -119 179
183 183 302 -119 183
191 191 307 -116 191
197 197 312 -115 197
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
21.2 6.0
21.3 6.1
21.5 6.1
21.6 6.2
21.7 6.2
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,418 1,440 1,473 1,418 1,440 1,473 1,506 1,530 1,556 -88 -90 -83 1,418 1,440 1,473
1,499 1,499 1,583 -84 1,499
1,529 1,529 1,612 -82 1,529
1,557 1,557 1,645 -89 1,557
1,587 1,587 1,684 -98 1,587
510 510 508 3 510
520 520 515 5 520
529 529 523 7 529
538 538 532 6 538
546 546 542 4 546
202 202 317 -114 202
209 209 322 -113 209
214 214 328 -114 214
218 218 336 -118 218
223 223 346 -122 223
Countries included: Armenia, Azerbaij aijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
360 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Philippine Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
5.5 10.8
5.5 11.7
5.4 12.0
5.4 12.0
Live Cattle Trade Import
230
200
203
207
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
235 309 310 -85 84 309
240 324 310 -69 83 324
237 320 321 -84 83 320
235 318 330 -96 83 318
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,008 1,017 1,025 -15 7 1,017
1,074 1,081 1,083 -9 7 1,081
1,129 1,136 1,129 0 7 1,136
1,118 1,125 1,154 -36 7 1,125
1,164 1,171 1,180 -16 7 1,171
1,189 1,196 1,213 -24 7 1,196
Poultry Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
520 522 543 -24 3 522
527 530 578 -51 3 530
545 548 608 -63 3 548
566 569 625 -59 3 569
594 597 649 -55 3 597
616 619 676 -60 3 619
40.54 55.83 50.59
48.42 65.21 54.12
51.44 74.43 56.60
52.37 68.96 58.07
Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Million Head) 5.4 5.5 12.6 12.5
5.7 12.5
5.9 12.4
6.1 12.6
6.3 12.8
6.5 12.7
(Thousand Head) 217 236
254
273
293
309
326
(Thousand Metric Tons) 232 234 238 315 318 322 354 375 396 -123 -141 -159 84 84 85 315 318 322
244 328 415 -172 85 328
252 337 430 -179 85 337
262 348 441 -178 85 348
274 359 449 -175 85 359
1,220 1,227 1,246 -26 7 1,227
1,236 1,243 1,288 -52 7 1,243
1,251 1,258 1,333 -82 7 1,258
1,277 1,284 1,375 -98 7 1,284
1,297 1,304 1,422 -125 7 1,304
640 643 703 -63 3 643
667 670 726 -60 3 670
694 697 753 -59 3 697
725 728 788 -64 3 728
757 760 823 -66 3 760
(Peso per Kilogram) 50.19 49.58 49.03 77.75 84.50 92.32 60.74 62.82 65.42
49.27 96.23 68.48
50.91 100.22 71.62
54.94 108.54 75.26
60.08 115.83 79.34
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 361
Polish Meat Supply y and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
6.1 18.2
6.0 16.0
5.8 14.8
5.7 14.4
(Million Head) 5.7 5.7 15.2 15.4
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
330 346 305 35 6 346
345 351 305 40 6 351
338 344 308 29 6 344
323 329 310 13 6 329
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,610 1,684 1,530 120 34 1,684
1,551 1,585 1,432 119 34 1,585
1,564 1,598 1,424 140 34 1,598
1,580 1,614 1,469 110 34 1,614
1,588 1,622 1,479 109 34 1,622
1,590 1,624 1,477 113 34 1,624
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
370 380 368 2 10 380
389 399 385 8 5 399
418 423 400 18 5 423
435 440 412 23 5 440
449 454 425 25 5 454
460 465 438 22 5 465
5,979 4,473 4,046
7,444 5,066 4,296
8,350 5,705 4,525
8,287 5,194 4,457
Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5.8 15.4
5.9 15.5
6.0 15.7
6.1 15.9
6.2 16.0
(Thousand Metric Tons) 314 310 300 320 316 306 319 328 340 -5 -19 -40 6 6 6 320 316 306
301 308 350 -48 6 308
306 312 358 -52 6 312
311 317 365 -54 6 317
319 325 369 -51 6 325
1,599 1,633 1,474 125 34 1,633
1,608 1,642 1,483 126 34 1,642
1,615 1,649 1,494 121 34 1,649
1,625 1,659 1,499 126 34 1,659
1,645 1,679 1,510 135 34 1,679
468 473 452 16 5 473
480 485 463 17 5 485
496 501 475 20 5 501
510 515 491 18 5 515
532 537 508 24 5 537
(Zloty per Ton) 7,431 6,547 5,547 5,117 5,145 5,127 4,344 4,175 3,971
4,844 4,973 3,846
4,428 4,863 3,758
4,204 4,887 3,656
4,307 4,960 3,656
362 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Romanian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
3.1 6.7
3.0 6.1
3.0 5.5
2.9 5.2
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
173 183 174 -1 10 183
170 180 174 -4 10 180
167 177 177 -10 10 177
164 174 178 -14 10 174
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
280 320 302 -12 30 320
278 308 308 -30 30 308
264 294 311 -42 25 294
252 277 322 -65 20 277
251 271 325 -69 15 271
255 270 325 -65 10 270
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
60 60 79 -19 0 60
57 57 83 -31 5 57
58 63 86 -29 5 63
59 64 88 -29 5 64
61 66 91 -30 5 66
63 68 94 -31 5 68
47,573 35,111 22,570
59,655 41,375 26,838
69,971 48,316 31,046
79,571 50,227 35,086
Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
3.0 5.6
3.1 5.8
3.1 6.2
3.2 6.6
3.2 7.0
(Thousand Metric Tons) 160 159 158 170 169 168 182 186 190 -21 -27 -33 10 10 10 170 169 168
157 167 194 -37 10 167
157 168 197 -40 10 168
158 169 201 -42 10 169
160 170 203 -44 10 170
264 274 325 -56 5 274
273 278 327 -49 0 278
285 285 330 -46 0 285
300 300 332 -33 0 300
316 316 336 -20 0 316
65 70 97 -32 5 70
67 72 99 -33 5 72
69 74 103 -34 5 74
71 76 107 -36 5 76
73 78 111 -37 5 78
(Million Head) 2.9 3.0 5.3 5.4
(Lei per Kilogram) 84,574 89,140 92,980 54,560 60,057 65,908 38,678 42,008 45,342
96,779 101,204 107,367 113,995 69,805 73,390 78,692 83,122 48,635 51,682 54,690 57,588
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 363
Russian Meat Supp ply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
27.0 16.1
25.8 15.9
25.6 15.5
25.2 15.3
(Million Head) 25.0 25.0 15.8 15.8
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,800 1,810 2,245 -445 10 1,810
1,700 1,710 2,237 -537 10 1,710
1,745 1,755 2,280 -534 10 1,755
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,480 1,480 1,779 -299 0 1,480
1,490 1,490 1,838 -348 0 1,490
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
380 380 1,275 -895 0 380
16,170 19,369 16,338
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Producer Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
25.0 15.8
25.2 15.8
25.4 16.0
25.8 16.2
26.2 16.3
1,714 1,724 2,247 -533 10 1,724
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,681 1,663 1,652 1,691 1,673 1,662 2,272 2,300 2,330 -591 -637 -678 10 10 10 1,691 1,673 1,662
1,654 1,664 2,342 -688 10 1,664
1,656 1,666 2,343 -688 10 1,666
1,660 1,670 2,343 -683 10 1,670
1,667 1,677 2,336 -669 10 1,677
1,524 1,524 1,876 -352 0 1,524
1,527 1,527 1,909 -382 0 1,527
1,537 1,537 1,937 -400 0 1,537
1,556 1,556 1,950 -395 0 1,556
1,582 1,582 1,964 -381 0 1,582
1,604 1,604 1,993 -389 0 1,604
1,617 1,617 2,026 -408 0 1,617
1,628 1,628 2,060 -431 0 1,628
1,635 1,635 2,112 -477 0 1,635
410 410 1,336 -925 0 410
466 466 1,363 -897 0 466
494 494 1,355 -861 0 494
521 521 1,356 -835 0 521
546 546 1,369 -824 0 546
569 569 1,383 -813 0 569
594 594 1,384 -789 0 594
606 606 1,396 -790 0 606
603 603 1,439 -836 0 603
591 591 1,492 -901 0 591
22,977 23,697 19,961
30,085 29,827 25,267
34,285 29,433 28,392
(Ruble per Ton) 36,336 38,965 41,656 32,417 36,995 42,269 32,094 36,140 40,721
45,117 46,302 45,993
47,993 49,263 49,898
50,026 52,150 51,643
51,017 53,142 51,936
364 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Slovakian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
665 1,590
661 2,084
660 2,215
659 2,188
(Thousand Head) 659 659 660 2,179 2,178 2,200
662 2,195
664 2,178
666 2,189
666 2,204
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
52 52 53 0 0 53
54 54 54 0 0 54
56 56 55 1 0 56
60 60 56 4 0 60
(Thousand Metric Tons) 62 63 63 62 63 63 58 60 61 5 3 1 0 0 0 62 63 63
62 62 63 -1 0 62
61 61 64 -3 0 61
61 61 66 -5 0 61
61 61 67 -6 0 61
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
255 255 281 -26 0 255
267 267 281 -14 0 267
284 284 282 3 0 284
281 281 291 -10 0 281
280 280 294 -14 0 280
279 279 296 -16 0 279
282 282 296 -14 0 282
282 282 299 -17 0 282
280 280 302 -22 0 280
281 281 304 -23 0 281
283 283 307 -24 0 283
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
76 76 78 -2 0 76
80 80 79 1 0 80
86 86 81 5 0 86
92 92 82 10 0 92
99 99 84 15 0 99
100 100 87 13 0 100
101 101 89 12 0 101
102 102 91 11 0 102
104 104 93 11 0 104
106 106 95 11 0 106
109 109 97 12 0 109
71.56 42.38 19.53
80.99 47.29 20.78
87.09 53.37 22.51
91.74 50.44 24.02
(Koruny per Kilogram) 89.73 84.49 79.45 52.33 54.13 56.33 25.19 24.55 24.18
75.34 55.99 23.95
72.81 55.54 23.63
72.90 57.25 23.51
73.92 58.16 23.51
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2005
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 365
Slovenian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
471 580
481 583
480 616
479 614
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
45 45 42 3 0 45
44 44 43 1 0 44
44 44 44 1 0 44
45 45 45 1 0 45
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
63 63 80 -17 0 63
63 63 81 -18 0 63
67 67 82 -15 0 67
66 66 83 -17 0 66
67 67 84 -18 0 67
67 67 84 -17 0 67
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
59 59 59 0 0 59
57 57 60 -3 0 57
61 61 62 -1 0 61
63 63 63 0 0 63
65 65 64 1 0 65
66 66 65 1 0 66
622.16 397.14 271.37
584.31 378.26 238.56
580.92 389.21 232.87
586.87 370.28 233.52
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
480 627
481 627
482 619
484 621
484 625
(Thousand Metric Tons) 46 48 49 46 48 49 46 47 48 1 1 1 0 0 0 46 48 49
51 51 49 1 0 51
52 52 50 2 0 52
54 54 51 3 0 54
57 57 52 5 0 57
68 68 85 -17 0 68
68 68 85 -17 0 68
67 67 86 -19 0 67
67 67 86 -19 0 67
68 68 87 -19 0 68
67 67 66 1 0 67
68 68 67 1 0 68
69 69 69 0 0 69
70 70 71 -1 0 70
71 71 72 0 0 71
(Tolar per Kilogram) 571.32 561.44 553.10 374.12 387.43 403.65 234.92 237.41 241.77
546.49 408.51 246.01
533.24 404.86 243.19
533.46 412.14 242.56
537.90 416.19 242.65
(Thousand Head) 479 479 615 620
366 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
South Korean Meatt Supply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
2.49 7.00
2.10 7.20
1.82 7.63
1.63 7.59
(Million Head) 1.51 1.44 7.62 7.89
Beef Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
266 268 600 550 0 50 600
243 319 612 563 0 49 612
218 335 602 553 0 49 602
199 352 601 552 0 48 601
Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
983 140 1,154 1,015 30 109 1,154
980 91 1,181 1,054 37 90 1,181
992 124 1,207 1,085 41 80 1,207
1,017 129 1,226 1,105 51 70 1,226
1,060 122 1,252 1,130 62 60 1,252
1,106 125 1,290 1,169 72 50 1,290
Poultry Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
473 64 542 536 1 5 542
496 60 561 555 1 5 561
515 60 581 575 1 5 581
536 63 604 598 1 5 604
557 66 628 622 1 5 628
-51
-33
-35
-40
-44
2,623
2,955
1,918 1,186
17,185 4,169 2,818
Broiler Net Trade Farm Prices Beef
Pork Poultry Retail Prices Beef Pork Poultry
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.42 8.37
1.43 8.82
1.46 9.09
1.50 9.38
1.55 9.76
(Thousand Metric Tons) 187 181 179 371 387 400 607 616 627 558 567 579 0 0 0 48 48 48 607 616 627
180 413 642 593 0 48 642
184 424 656 608 0 48 656
189 431 668 619 0 48 668
195 436 679 630 0 48 679
1,144 129 1,323 1,212 71 40 1,323
1,182 122 1,344 1,242 72 30 1,344
1,219 115 1,364 1,271 73 20 1,364
1,254 118 1,392 1,310 72 10 1,392
1,287 124 1,422 1,351 71 0 1,422
576 68 649 643 1 5 649
594 70 669 663 1 5 669
614 71 691 685 1 5 691
635 73 714 708 1 5 714
656 75 736 730 1 5 736
677 75 758 752 1 5 758
-48
-52
-56
-61
-65
-69
3,411
(1000 Won per 500 Kilogram, Liveweight) 3,841 4,121 4,338 4,513 4,714
4,933
5,185
5,447
1,722 1,223
1,899 1,288
2,097 1,358
(Won per Kilogram, Liveweight) 2,214 2,232 2,230 1,412 1,456 1,496
2,320 1,546
2,402 1,594
2,430 1,641
2,460 1,688
19,460 3,727 2,893
22,588 3,968 3,042
25,892 4,379 3,216
(Won per Kilogram) 28,419 30,314 31,767 4,670 4,745 4,735 3,353 3,458 3,548
33,220 4,886 3,656
34,773 5,052 3,765
36,539 5,119 3,869
38,433 5,170 3,973
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 367
Taiwanese Meat Su upply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
Hog Inventories (Beg.)
7.2
7.5
7.5
7.6
Beef and Veal Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Ending Stocks Total Use
5 95 100 100 0 100
5 97 102 102 0 102
5 100 105 105 0 105
5 102 107 107 0 107
Pork Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
895 60 955 955 0 0 955
900 72 972 972 0 0 972
903 85 989 988 0 0 989
911 94 1,004 1,004 1 0 1,004
917 96 1,013 1,011 1 0 1,013
921 107 1,028 1,026 2 0 1,028
Broiler Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
615 14 629 628 1 0 629
631 16 647 646 1 0 647
649 15 664 663 1 0 664
666 14 680 679 1 0 680
679 15 694 693 1 0 694
692 15 707 706 1 0 707
282.34 161.57 135.28
293.22 163.63 136.34
301.18 164.68 136.60
Retail Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
8.1
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.7
(Thousand Metric Tons) 5 5 5 107 111 115 112 116 120 112 116 120 0 0 0 112 116 120
5 121 126 126 0 126
5 126 130 130 0 130
5 130 135 135 0 135
5 134 138 138 0 138
924 120 1,044 1,042 2 0 1,044
934 116 1,051 1,048 3 0 1,051
947 112 1,059 1,055 4 0 1,059
960 116 1,075 1,070 6 0 1,075
973 120 1,093 1,086 7 0 1,093
706 15 721 720 1 0 721
723 15 738 737 1 0 738
741 15 756 755 1 0 756
759 15 774 773 1 0 774
776 15 791 790 1 0 791
(New Taiwan Dollars per Kilogram) 310.32 306.76 303.06 299.58 297.87 166.93 170.54 169.06 167.34 172.02 137.87 139.75 139.99 140.38 141.81
298.42 176.35 143.14
302.63 177.42 144.19
308.30 177.91 145.43
(Million Head) 7.8 7.9
368 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Thai Meat Supply an nd Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
188 188 188 0 0 188
191 191 189 2 0 191
197 197 195 2 0 197
206 206 197 9 0 206
(Thousand Metric Tons) 215 224 233 215 224 233 207 220 233 7 4 0 0 0 0 215 224 233
243 243 245 -3 0 243
254 254 256 -2 0 254
267 267 264 3 0 267
284 284 271 13 0 284
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Stock Change Total Use
426 426 423 3 0 426
438 438 416 22 0 438
454 454 418 37 0 454
446 446 446 0 0 446
442 442 453 -11 0 442
450 450 454 -4 0 450
465 465 454 11 0 465
477 477 464 12 0 477
485 485 477 8 0 485
501 501 486 15 0 501
516 516 499 17 0 516
Broiler Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,070 1,110 780 270 60 1,110
1,134 1,194 821 312 60 1,194
1,141 1,201 867 274 60 1,201
1,140 1,200 899 241 60 1,200
1,135 1,195 930 204 60 1,195
1,155 1,215 959 196 60 1,215
1,191 1,251 986 206 60 1,251
1,239 1,299 1,008 231 60 1,299
1,290 1,350 1,035 255 60 1,350
1,352 1,412 1,070 283 60 1,412
1,422 1,482 1,104 318 60 1,482
Wholesale Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
81.01 45.39 33.84
102.73 66.21 37.01
102.86 69.18 35.32
100.99 61.49 33.36
(Baht per Kilogram) 93.29 88.36 83.77 60.36 62.83 65.86 31.80 31.53 31.66
80.37 66.25 32.03
78.88 66.57 32.36
80.51 69.37 32.94
83.32 71.34 33.70
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 369
Ukrainian Meat Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
10.63 10.07
10.00 10.00
9.63 9.73
10.07 9.66
(Million Head) 10.68 11.47 9.95 10.04
Beef and Veal Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
650 700 593 79 28 700
656 684 578 79 27 684
630 657 572 58 28 657
664 692 570 94 28 692
Pork Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
660 720 690 -8 38 720
685 723 688 12 23 723
693 716 694 0 23 716
683 706 716 -33 23 706
687 711 722 -35 24 711
693 717 719 -26 24 717
Poultry Production Total Supply Consumption Net Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
190 281 289 -90 82 281
194 276 299 -105 82 276
202 284 325 -123 82 284
217 299 331 -115 82 299
231 313 340 -108 82 313
Broiler Net Trade
-81
-81
-114
-106
-100
4,454 5,133 5,463
6,627 6,620 6,814
7,639 7,695 7,481
8,870 7,826 8,392
Cattle Inventories (Beg.) Hog Inventories (Beg.)
Farm Prices Beef and Veal Pork Poultry
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
12.12 10.01
12.58 9.99
12.80 10.10
12.78 10.22
12.53 10.25
(Thousand Metric Tons) 687 721 745 714 749 773 581 597 616 106 124 129 28 28 28 714 749 773
757 785 633 124 28 785
760 788 647 113 28 788
756 785 660 97 28 785
742 770 670 72 28 770
702 725 716 -14 24 725
704 728 719 -15 24 728
707 731 725 -17 24 731
716 740 730 -14 24 740
723 747 739 -15 24 747
245 327 350 -105 82 327
258 340 360 -102 82 340
273 355 368 -95 82 355
288 370 376 -89 82 370
304 386 389 -86 82 386
321 403 403 -82 82 403
-97
-94
-88
-82
-79
-76
(Hryvnia per Kilogram) 9,277 9,549 9,739 8,502 9,361 10,281 9,131 9,715 10,309
9,962 10,792 10,905
10,316 11,256 11,449
10,959 12,075 12,003
11,691 12,733 12,548
370 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Meat Con onsumption of Selected Countries 2000
2001
2002
2003
69.0 6.0 24.4
68.9 6.0 24.6
68.3 6.1 25.4
(Kilograms, Carcass Weight Basis) 67.9 67.7 68.9 69.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 25.8 26.2 26.8 27.3
99.4
99.6
99.7
100.1
100.4
102.1
36.0 18.3 29.5 13.5
35.7 17.8 29.2 14.6
36.2 18.3 30.1 14.0
36.0 18.5 30.0 15.3
37.0 19.1 30.7 14.0
Total
97.3
97.3
98.6
99.7
Brazil Beef Pork Broiler
34.0 10.8 28.9
34.7 11.0 29.8
34.8 11.1 30.2
Total
73.7
75.5
Bulgaria Beef Pork Broiler
12.8 32.4 14.1
Argentina Beef Pork Broiler Total Australia Beef Pork Broiler Lamb-Mutton
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
69.9 6.6 27.7
70.1 6.7 28.2
70.0 6.8 28.9
69.7 6.9 29.6
103.2
104.2
105.0
105.6
106.2
37.5 19.2 31.0 14.0
38.0 19.2 31.3 14.1
38.4 19.4 31.5 14.3
38.6 19.5 31.8 14.5
38.8 19.7 32.2 14.6
38.8 20.0 32.6 14.8
100.9
101.7
102.6
103.6
104.5
105.3
106.2
34.9 11.5 30.6
35.4 11.7 30.8
36.0 11.7 31.3
36.5 11.7 31.7
37.0 11.8 32.0
37.4 12.0 32.5
37.7 12.1 33.1
37.9 12.2 33.6
76.2
77.1
77.9
78.9
79.9
80.9
81.8
82.8
83.7
14.1 33.1 14.6
14.5 33.7 15.0
15.0 34.7 15.6
15.2 35.3 16.0
15.7 35.7 16.3
16.4 36.1 16.6
17.0 36.6 17.0
17.5 37.2 17.4
18.0 37.6 17.8
18.3 38.1 18.2
Total
59.4
61.8
63.1
65.3
66.4
67.8
69.0
70.5
72.1
73.3
74.6
Canada Beef Pork Broiler
31.3 31.9 29.1
30.8 32.4 29.5
30.3 34.2 29.3
31.0 32.9 30.2
31.7 32.4 30.8
31.9 33.0 30.8
32.0 34.0 30.8
32.6 33.4 31.2
33.1 33.0 31.7
33.0 33.7 31.9
32.9 34.5 32.0
Total
92.3
92.7
93.9
94.2
94.9
95.8
96.8
97.3
97.8
98.6
99.4
1.8 22.9 5.1 1.1
1.9 23.5 5.1 1.2
2.0 24.0 5.1 1.2
2.0 24.3 5.2 1.2
2.1 24.5 5.3 1.2
2.1 24.7 5.3 1.2
2.2 24.9 5.4 1.2
2.3 25.1 5.5 1.2
2.3 25.4 5.6 1.2
2.4 25.6 5.7 1.2
2.4 25.8 5.7 1.3
31.0
31.7
32.3
32.7
33.0
33.4
33.8
34.2
34.5
34.9
35.2
11.8 54.1 49.3
11.6 54.7 49.5
11.7 55.5 49.7
11.9 55.4 50.0
12.2 55.3 50.3
12.4 55.6 50.5
12.6 56.0 50.6
12.9 55.9 50.9
13.1 55.8 51.1
13.2 56.2 51.2
13.3 56.5 51.3
115.2
115.8
116.9
117.4
117.8
118.5
119.2
119.6
120.0
120.6
121.1
23.1 60.7 19.1
22.6 60.0 20.0
21.1 60.3 20.9
21.4 61.5 21.6
21.5 62.0 22.3
21.9 62.1 22.8
22.2 62.1 23.3
22.6 62.5 23.8
22.9 62.9 24.3
23.1 63.3 25.1
23.3 63.5 25.6
103.0
102.6
102.4
104.5
105.7
106.8
107.7
108.9
110.1
111.4
112.5
China - Mainland Beef Pork Poultry Lamb-Mutton Total China - Hong Kong Beef Pork Broiler Total Czech Republic Beef Pork Broiler Total
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 371
Per Capita Meat Con onsumption of Selected Countries (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
Estonia Beef Pork Broiler
14.7 32.0 13.5
15.9 32.5 14.1
16.6 32.8 14.6
Total
60.3
62.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Kilograms, Carcass Weight Basis) 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.1 33.6 33.9 34.1 34.3 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3
21.1 34.6 16.7
22.0 35.0 17.1
22.6 35.3 17.6
23.2 35.6 18.0
64.1
65.7
67.4
69.2
70.7
72.4
74.0
75.5
76.8
19.1 44.8 15.0 3.6
17.5 45.4 15.9 3.7
17.3 45.8 16.3 3.6
18.0 45.9 15.9 3.7
18.5 46.0 15.7 3.6
18.5 46.0 15.7 3.6
18.4 46.2 15.8 3.6
18.2 46.6 16.0 3.6
18.0 46.9 16.2 3.6
17.8 47.0 16.4 3.6
17.7 47.2 16.6 3.6
Total
82.6
82.5
83.1
83.5
83.8
83.9
84.0
84.4
84.7
84.9
85.0
Hungary Beef Pork Broiler
5.0 35.9 17.3
5.2 36.4 17.9
5.3 36.6 18.5
5.4 37.6 18.9
5.5 38.0 19.3
5.7 38.2 19.9
5.9 38.3 20.3
6.2 38.7 20.8
6.4 39.2 21.2
6.6 39.6 21.8
6.8 40.0 22.3
Total
58.1
59.5
60.4
61.9
62.8
63.8
64.5
65.7
66.8
68.0
69.2
1.6 3.4 3.3 0.3
1.6 3.4 3.4 0.3
1.6 3.4 3.7 0.3
1.6 3.5 3.6 0.4
1.7 3.6 3.8 0.3
1.7 3.6 3.9 0.3
1.7 3.6 4.0 0.3
1.7 3.7 4.1 0.3
1.8 3.7 4.1 0.4
1.8 3.8 4.2 0.4
1.8 3.8 4.3 0.4
8.6
8.7
9.0
9.0
9.4
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
10.1
10.3
12.0 1.8 2.4 7.8 16.9 12.6
11.9 1.8 2.4 7.8 16.7 12.6
11.9 1.8 2.3 7.8 17.1 12.6
12.0 1.7 2.3 7.9 17.0 12.7
12.1 1.7 2.3 8.1 17.0 12.7
12.2 1.7 2.2 8.2 17.1 12.7
12.3 1.7 2.2 8.3 17.2 12.7
12.4 1.7 2.2 8.5 17.2 12.7
12.5 1.7 2.2 8.6 17.2 12.8
12.5 1.7 2.2 8.6 17.4 12.8
12.6 1.7 2.2 8.7 17.6 12.9
European Union Beef Pork Broiler Lamb-Mutton
Indonesia Beef Pork Broiler Lamb Total Japan Beef - All Wagyu Dairy Import Pork Poultry
2004
2005
2006
Total
41.5
41.3
41.6
41.7
41.9
42.1
42.2
42.3
42.4
42.7
43.1
Latvia Beef Pork Broiler
9.4 17.6 8.3
9.5 17.9 8.6
9.8 18.1 8.9
10.0 18.8 9.1
10.4 19.0 9.2
10.9 19.2 9.4
11.4 19.3 9.5
11.8 19.5 9.6
12.2 19.8 9.8
12.5 20.0 10.0
12.6 20.4 10.3
Total
35.3
36.1
36.9
37.9
38.7
39.4
40.2
41.0
41.8
42.5
43.3
22.7 28.8 8.8
23.8 29.1 9.2
24.2 29.2 9.6
24.3 29.9 9.9
24.8 30.1 10.2
25.3 30.3 10.5
25.8 30.3 10.7
26.3 30.6 10.9
26.6 30.8 11.2
26.8 31.0 11.5
26.8 31.3 11.8
Total
60.3
62.0
63.0
64.1
65.1
66.0
66.9
67.8
68.6
69.2
69.9
Mexico Beef Pork Broiler
22.9 11.0 20.4
22.4 11.6 20.9
22.0 12.6 21.3
22.2 12.4 21.9
22.6 12.3 22.3
22.8 12.7 22.4
22.9 13.2 22.5
23.3 13.2 22.9
23.6 13.1 23.3
23.6 13.6 23.6
23.5 14.2 23.8
Total
54.4
54.8
55.9
56.5
57.2
57.9
58.6
59.3
60.1
60.8
61.6
Lithuania Beef Pork Broiler
372 / World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Meat Con onsumption of Selected Countries (continued) 2007
2008
2009
2010
(Kilograms, Carcass Weight Basis) 35.2 36.9 37.2 37.6 15.0 16.1 16.0 15.9 25.3 26.9 27.2 27.5
37.8 15.9 27.6
37.8 15.9 27.8
37.2 16.0 28.2
36.9 16.2 28.5
78.3
75.5
79.9
80.4
81.0
81.3
81.5
81.5
81.5
14.2 30.4 7.7
14.3 30.4 7.7
14.4 30.6 7.8
14.5 30.6 7.9
14.6 30.7 8.0
14.8 30.8 8.0
14.9 30.9 8.1
15.0 30.9 8.2
15.1 31.0 8.3
15.2 31.1 8.3
52.1
52.3
52.4
52.7
53.0
53.3
53.6
53.9
54.2
54.4
54.6
16.5 5.4 3.3
16.3 5.4 3.3
16.4 5.4 3.3
16.4 5.4 3.4
16.6 5.5 3.4
16.7 5.5 3.4
16.8 5.5 3.4
16.9 5.5 3.4
17.0 5.5 3.5
17.2 5.6 3.5
17.4 5.6 3.6
25.1
25.0
25.1
25.2
25.4
25.5
25.7
25.9
26.0
26.3
26.6
3.8 12.6 6.7
3.7 13.1 7.0
3.8 13.4 7.2
3.8 13.4 7.3
4.0 13.4 7.4
4.2 13.5 7.6
4.3 13.7 7.7
4.5 13.9 7.8
4.5 14.1 8.0
4.6 14.3 8.2
4.6 14.5 8.4
Total
23.1
23.8
24.3
24.5
24.8
25.3
25.7
26.1
26.6
27.1
27.5
Poland Beef Pork Broiler
8.4 39.6 9.5
7.9 37.1 10.0
7.9 36.9 10.4
8.0 38.0 10.7
8.0 38.3 11.0
8.3 38.2 11.3
8.5 38.1 11.7
8.8 38.4 12.0
9.0 38.6 12.3
9.2 38.7 12.7
9.4 39.0 13.1
Total
57.5
54.9
55.1
56.7
57.3
57.8
58.3
59.1
60.0
60.7
61.6
Romania Beef Pork Broiler
8.5 13.5 3.5
7.8 13.8 3.7
7.8 13.9 3.9
7.9 14.5 4.0
8.0 14.6 4.1
8.2 14.7 4.2
8.4 14.7 4.4
8.6 14.8 4.5
8.8 15.0 4.7
9.0 15.1 4.9
9.1 15.3 5.1
New Zealand Beef Pork Broiler Total Other Eastern Europe Beef Pork Poultry Total Other FSU Beef Pork Poultry Total Philippines Beef Pork Broiler
2000
2001
2002
2003
35.3 15.2 25.0
36.1 14.8 24.7
36.7 15.5 26.1
75.6
75.6
14.2 30.3 7.7
2004
2005
2006
Total
25.5
25.2
25.6
26.4
26.7
27.1
27.4
27.9
28.4
28.9
29.5
Russia Beef Pork Broiler
15.4 12.2 8.7
15.4 12.6 9.2
15.7 12.9 9.4
15.6 13.2 9.4
15.8 13.4 9.4
16.0 13.6 9.5
16.3 13.7 9.6
16.4 13.9 9.7
16.4 14.2 9.8
16.4 14.4 10.1
16.4 14.8 10.5
Total
36.3
37.2
38.1
38.1
38.6
39.1
39.6
40.0
40.4
41.0
41.7
Slovakia Beef Pork Broiler
9.8 51.9 14.4
9.9 52.0 14.7
10.1 52.0 15.0
10.2 53.5 15.1
10.6 54.0 15.5
11.0 54.3 16.0
11.3 54.3 16.3
11.6 54.8 16.7
11.8 55.3 17.0
12.0 55.5 17.4
12.2 56.0 17.8
Total
76.1
76.5
77.1
78.9
80.1
81.2
82.0
83.0
84.0
84.9
85.9
Slovenia Beef Pork Broiler
21.8 41.6 30.4
22.3 42.1 30.9
22.7 42.2 31.9
23.0 43.1 32.4
23.6 43.4 33.0
24.2 43.5 33.7
24.7 43.5 34.2
25.2 43.8 34.7
25.8 44.2 35.5
26.2 44.4 36.2
26.6 44.6 36.9
Total
93.8
95.3
96.8
98.5
100.0
101.3
102.5
103.7
105.4
106.8
108.0
World Meat: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 373
Per Capita Meat Con onsumption of Selected Countries (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2007
2008
2009
2010
11.6 21.4 11.3
11.7 22.0 11.6
11.4 22.5 11.9
(Kilograms, Carcass Weight Basis) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 22.7 23.0 23.6 24.3 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3
11.8 24.8 13.6
12.0 25.2 14.0
12.2 25.8 14.4
12.3 26.4 14.7
Total
44.3
45.3
45.8
46.3
47.0
48.1
49.2
50.2
51.2
52.3
53.5
Taiwan Beef Pork Broiler
4.5 43.0 28.3
4.6 43.4 28.9
4.7 43.8 29.4
4.7 44.2 29.9
4.9 44.2 30.3
5.0 44.5 30.6
5.2 44.8 31.0
5.4 44.8 31.5
5.5 44.8 32.1
5.7 45.1 32.6
5.8 45.5 33.1
Total
75.8
76.9
77.9
78.8
79.3
80.1
81.0
81.6
82.4
83.3
84.4
3.1 6.9 12.7
3.1 6.7 13.3
3.1 6.7 13.9
3.1 7.1 14.3
3.3 7.1 14.7
3.4 7.1 15.0
3.6 7.0 15.3
3.8 7.2 15.5
3.9 7.3 15.8
4.0 7.4 16.2
4.1 7.5 16.7
Total
22.7
23.1
23.7
24.5
25.1
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.6
28.3
Ukraine Beef Pork Broiler
12.1 14.0 5.9
11.9 14.1 6.1
11.8 14.3 6.7
11.9 14.9 6.9
12.2 15.1 7.1
12.6 15.2 7.4
13.1 15.2 7.6
13.5 15.3 7.8
13.9 15.5 8.1
14.2 15.7 8.4
14.5 16.0 8.7
Total
32.0
32.1
32.9
33.7
34.4
35.1
35.9
36.7
37.5
38.3
39.2
45.0 30.6 40.5
43.7 31.3 41.3
42.9 31.8 42.2
42.9 31.3 43.4
42.9 31.1 44.6
43.1 31.3 45.5
43.5 31.6 46.6
44.0 31.3 47.6
43.9 31.2 48.6
43.6 31.4 49.6
43.2 31.6 50.6
116.1
116.3
116.9
117.5
118.6
119.9
121.6
122.9
123.8
124.5
125.3
South Korea Beef Pork Poultry
Thailand Beef Pork Broiler
United States Beef Pork Broiler Total
2004
2005
2006
WORLD DAIRY PRODUCTS
376 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
World Dairy Products A reduction in U.S. exports coupled with strong import demand pushed up international prices for NFD and WMP by 44.5 and 22.4 percent respectively in 2000. Powder prices decline 4 to 5 percent in 2001, as powder supply increases in response to higher prices. From 2003 onward, powder prices rise an average of 1.7 percent annually. A strong increase in exports from Australia and the EU contributed to the 2.9 percent decline in international cheese prices in 2000. Likewise, a 21 percent increase in New Zealand butter exports played a role in the 7.7 percent decline in butter prices. Butter and cheese prices rise steadily after 2002, increasing, respectively, 2.2 and 3.1 percent annually. Despite a 0.7 percent decline in total cow inventories, milk production in modeled countries grows 9.7 percent from 2000 to 2010, implying a 1 percent annual increase in average productivity per cow. Production growth in North and South America accounts for 57 percent of the 38 mmt total increase. Fluid milk consumption rises 11 mmt, leaving more than 70 percent of the growth in milk production to be processed into manufactured dairy products. Strong domestic and export demand for NFD reduced EU stocks by 43 percent and raised domestic NFD prices by 8 percent in 2000. Despite the 15 percent reduction in butter and NFD intervention prices from 2005 to 2007, the NFD market in the EU remains tight throughout the baseline, keeping prices well above intervention levels. Strength in the dairy protein market supports EU prices for other dairy products. With butter stocks in excess of 300 tmt, EU butter prices come close to intervention in 2005, but domestic butter prices average 25 euros/100 kg above intervention from 2008-2010. Butter production increases 18.9 percent by 2010, with 86 percent of that growth occurring in India. Production of cheese and WMP grow similarly, rising 17.6 and 16.8 percent respectively. NFD production declines substantially in the United States, European Union, Canada, and Australia, offsetting growth in other countries. Total NFD output rises a meager 0.5 percent over the baseline. Australia, New Zealand, and the EU supply roughly 90 percent of butter exports in 2000. Moderate growth in EU and New Zealand exports keeps the share of the major three exporters above 90 percent throughout the baseline. Milk quotas constrain domestic cheese production, causing Hungary to become a net importer of up to 25 tmt by 2010. Russian cheese imports rise to 144 tmt by 2010. Cheese exports from Australia and New Zealand grow an average of 3 percent annually, allowing these countries to capture 75 percent of the total growth in trade. Following implementation of Berlin Accord reforms, EU unsubsidized cheese exports grow 35 tmt. Greater profitability in cheese markets prompt significant declines in Australian and Canadian NFD exports. Polish NFD exports increase 35 tmt over the projection period. U.S. NFD exports are limited to DEIP maximums despite elimination of market support in 2002. NFD production in Mexico increases 57 tmt over the baseline, keeping NFD imports stagnant at 105 tmt and reducing butter imports by 20 tmt. A 53 percent increase in domestic WMP production keeps Brazilian WMP imports to a modest 7 percent growth, while Brazilian NFD imports rise 64 percent. WMP net exports from both Argentina and New Zealand grow in excess of 60 tmt. Australian WMP exports grow a modest 1 percent annually, while EU exports stagnate.
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 377
FOB Northern European Dairy Product Prices Dollars per Metric Ton 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998 WMP
2000 Cheese
2002
2004
Butter
2006
2008
2010
NFD
Annual Growth in Milk Production and Total World Output Thousand Metric Tons 7,000
Million Metric Tons 440
6,000
430
5,000
420
4,000
410
3,000
400
2,000
390
1,000
380
0
370
-1,000
360
-2,000
350 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 N. America
S. America
Europe
India
Oceania
Total Production (mmt)
378 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Butter Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Canada Czech Republic European Union Hungary New Zealand Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Ukraine United States Total Net Exports Net Importers Brazil Bulgaria India Japan Mexico Romania Russia Switzerland Rest of World Total Net Imports FOB Price N. Europe
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
6 129 2 24 71 4 338 -9 2 1 10 -10
2 136 5 24 81 4 339 -8 2 1 14 -10
3 134 2 23 89 4 311 -7 2 1 13 -10
5 127 2 24 95 3 316 -7 2 1 12 -10
(Thousand Metric Tons) 5 6 6 125 123 120 2 2 2 23 23 23 97 101 107 3 2 1 319 322 325 -6 -6 -3 3 3 3 1 1 1 11 10 9 -10 -10 -10
7 119 -1 24 113 0 329 -1 4 1 9 -10
7 118 -1 25 117 -2 332 1 4 1 8 -10
8 117 -2 26 119 -3 336 3 3 1 7 -10
9 116 -8 28 125 -4 339 6 3 1 6 -10
567
590
566
571
573
577
585
592
599
605
611
12 1 3 0 25 -1 37 4 486
5 1 -8 0 24 -1 49 5 514
6 2 -6 0 20 -1 36 5 505
7 2 -6 0 18 -1 41 5 504
9 3 -8 0 16 -1 44 5 505
10 3 -9 0 14 -1 47 5 507
11 3 -10 0 13 0 50 5 513
12 4 -11 0 11 0 53 5 518
14 4 -13 0 9 0 58 6 521
14 4 -15 0 7 0 67 6 522
15 5 -18 0 5 1 79 6 519
567
590
566
571
573
577
585
592
599
605
611
1,325
1,422
1,579
1,603
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,639 1,670 1,689
1,718
1,758
1,808
1,869
2000
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
22 184 -1 -2 256 4 241 2 -7 1 3 34 6
13 176 -4 -5 253 7 262 15 -11 0 5 34 16
11 191 -5 -8 250 5 249 16 -8 1 6 34 13
10 196 -5 -14 253 4 264 14 -4 2 6 34 12
(Thousand Metric Tons) 5 7 9 204 212 218 -5 -6 -7 -18 -19 -19 254 259 265 2 -3 -8 273 282 290 12 11 12 -1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 35 35 34 11 11 11
13 225 -9 -18 274 -12 300 13 4 6 6 33 12
18 233 -11 -15 281 -17 310 13 5 5 6 33 13
24 241 -13 -11 287 -21 320 14 6 5 6 32 14
31 248 -15 -6 294 -25 328 13 7 4 6 32 14
743
762
755
772
783
800
819
846
873
903
931
18 5 197 45 60 156 262
16 -2 199 47 63 156 282
10 -1 198 40 64 155 289
14 0 200 37 69 155 297
13 0 202 36 73 154 304
12 1 204 36 81 154 311
11 1 206 37 89 154 319
13 3 210 40 99 154 327
14 5 213 43 111 154 333
14 8 215 46 127 154 339
11 11 218 48 144 154 346
743
762
755
772
783
800
819
846
873
903
931
1,854
1,844
1,938
1,959
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 2,002 2,037 2,061
2,097
2,148
2,205
2,254
Cheese Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Bulgaria Czech Republic European Union Hungary New Zealand Poland Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Ukraine Total Net Exports Net Importers Brazil Canada Japan Mexico Russia United States Rest of World Total Net Imports FOB Price N. Europe
2004
2005
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 379
Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 650 450 250 50 -150 -350 -550 -750 1990
1992
1994
1996
Australia
1998 New Zealand
2000 EU
2002
2004
Rest of World
2006
2008
2010
2008
2010
Russia
Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 1990
1992
1994
1996
Australia
1998 EU
2000
2002
New Zealand
Hungary
2004 Japan
2006 Russia
380 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Nonfat Dry Milk Trad ade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Canada Czech Republic European Union Hungary India New Zealand Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Ukraine United States Total Net Exports Net Importers Brazil Bulgaria Japan Mexico Romania Russia Rest of World Total Net Imports FOB Price N. Europe
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
27 240 36 38 266 5 9 204 62 6 2 6 28 85
17 248 29 36 189 5 6 186 70 7 3 5 28 85
20 237 26 32 187 4 4 168 75 7 3 4 25 85
24 227 25 31 187 4 8 174 79 7 3 4 24 85
(Thousand Metric Tons) 25 26 27 221 216 211 26 24 19 32 32 33 187 188 188 4 3 2 11 14 16 179 182 187 80 81 86 8 8 9 3 3 3 4 4 4 23 21 21 76 76 76
28 207 15 34 188 2 18 191 91 9 3 4 21 76
29 203 11 35 188 1 20 195 95 9 3 4 20 76
30 200 8 37 188 1 22 199 100 9 3 4 20 76
31 196 4 40 189 0 24 204 105 9 3 4 19 76
1,014
914
877
882
878
878
882
886
890
897
905
41 3 53 105 -1 20 793
41 4 53 97 -1 20 699
51 4 53 100 -1 20 650
54 4 53 109 -1 19 645
56 4 53 108 -1 18 641
58 4 52 107 -2 15 642
59 4 50 107 -2 12 651
62 4 48 106 -2 7 659
64 4 47 106 -2 3 667
66 5 48 105 -2 1 674
67 5 49 105 -2 -1 681
1,014
914
877
882
878
878
882
886
890
897
905
1,878
1,908
1,942
1,977
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Thousand Metric Tons) 135 141 146 184 185 186 527 524 523 484 491 498
153 186 524 505
159 187 524 513
166 187 524 520
174 187 527 526
1,804
1,728
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,757 1,794 1,816 1,851
2000
2001
2002
2003
117 169 549 382
104 174 528 462
117 181 519 466
129 183 526 474
1,880
Whole Milk Powderr Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia European Union New Zealand Total Net Exports Net Importers Brazil Rest of World Total Net Imports FOB Price N. Europe
1,217 125 1,092 1,217 1,846
1,268 109 1,158 1,268 1,749
1,283 135 1,148 1,283 1,808
1,312 136 1,176 1,312
2004
1,329 137 1,192 1,329
2005
1,341 135 1,206 1,341
1,353 133 1,220 1,353
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,838 1,875 1,904 1,934
1,368 134 1,234 1,368 1,963
1,383 134 1,249 1,383 1,996
1,398 135 1,264 1,398 2,032
1,413 134 1,279 1,413 2,071
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 381
NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Australia
EU
2000 Poland
2002 U.S.
2004
2006
2008
2010
2006
2008
2010
Brazil
WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 1990
1992
1994
1996 Argentina
1998
2000
Australia
EU
2002
2004
New Zealand
Brazil
382 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
U.S. Dairy Supply an and Utilization
Milk Cow Numbers Milk Production per Cow Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Other Disappearance
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
9,227
9,173
9,077
8,969
(Thousand Head) 8,888 8,826 8,769
8,716
8,666
8,620
8,578
8,723
(Kilograms) 8,890 9,053
9,215
9,378
9,541
9,704
9,868
(Thousand Metric Tons) 79,017 79,899 80,807 28,251 28,443 28,655 50,766 51,456 52,153
81,737 28,876 52,860
82,678 29,100 53,579
83,648 29,339 54,309
84,651 29,601 55,050
8,256
8,410
8,537
2005
76,182 27,491 48,691
77,140 27,605 49,536
77,483 27,830 49,653
78,238 28,018 50,220
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Shipments Total Use
596 16 624 604 5 14 1 624
601 16 631 611 5 14 1 631
569 16 599 580 5 13 1 599
570 16 599 580 5 13 1 599
573 16 603 584 5 13 1 603
578 16 607 588 5 14 1 607
582 16 612 593 5 14 1 612
587 16 617 597 5 14 1 617
591 16 622 602 5 14 1 622
596 16 627 606 5 14 1 627
600 16 631 611 5 15 1 631
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Shipments Total Use
3,774 194 4,250 3,870 38 318 24 4,251
3,865 194 4,377 3,989 39 325 24 4,377
3,953 194 4,473 4,074 39 335 24 4,473
4,043 194 4,572 4,171 39 337 24 4,572
4,113 194 4,644 4,235 40 345 24 4,644
4,190 194 4,730 4,311 40 354 24 4,730
4,269 194 4,817 4,390 40 363 24 4,817
4,349 194 4,907 4,470 40 372 24 4,907
4,431 194 4,997 4,552 40 381 24 4,997
4,514 194 5,089 4,635 40 390 24 5,089
4,600 194 5,184 4,721 40 398 24 5,184
670 5 788 369 91 2 1 325 788
631 5 961 406 91 2 1 461 961
543 5 1,009 467 91 2 1 448 1,009
536 5 989 463 91 2 1 432 989
526 5 964 462 82 2 1 417 964
524 5 947 460 82 2 1 402 947
522 5 930 458 82 2 1 386 930
520 5 912 456 82 2 1 371 912
518 5 895 454 82 2 1 356 895
517 5 878 452 82 2 1 340 878
515 5 861 450 82 2 1 325 861
272 219 2,603 2,555 2,260
277 215 2,681 2,530 2,261
260 216 2,916 2,543 1,803
273 231 3,054 2,676 1,888
(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 277 280 283 235 239 242 3,109 3,088 3,071 2,706 2,729 2,758 1,918 1,955 1,996
286 246 3,057 2,788 2,033
288 250 3,042 2,814 2,066
291 254 3,034 2,845 2,097
294 259 3,039 2,884 2,131
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Shipments Feed, Waste Ending Stocks Total Use Prices All Milk Class III Butter Wholesale Cheese Wholesale Nonfat Dry Milk Wholesale
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 383
Argentine Dairy Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Milk Cow Numbers
2,450
2,450
2,451
2,458
(Thousand Head) 2,472 2,489 2,508
2,529
2,553
2,579
2,607
Milk Production per Cow
4,000
3,904
4,006
4,102
4,174
4,317
4,389
4,460
4,533
4,606
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
9,800 2,250 7,514
9,564 2,246 7,282
9,819 2,287 7,494
10,085 2,329 7,718
(Thousand Metric Tons) 10,318 10,567 10,828 2,370 2,412 2,455 7,910 8,115 8,332
11,099 2,498 8,560
11,387 2,542 8,803
11,692 2,585 9,064
12,009 2,628 9,337
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
52 0 58 49 6 3 58
48 0 51 46 2 3 51
50 0 53 46 3 3 53
53 0 56 47 5 3 56
54 0 57 48 5 3 57
55 0 58 49 6 3 58
56 0 59 50 6 3 59
58 0 61 51 7 3 61
60 0 63 52 7 3 63
61 0 64 53 8 3 64
63 0 66 54 9 3 66
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
432 2 465 416 24 25 465
420 4 449 410 17 21 449
426 4 451 419 15 17 451
432 4 453 429 14 10 453
443 4 457 438 9 10 457
455 4 469 448 11 10 469
468 4 482 459 13 10 482
482 4 496 470 17 10 496
497 4 511 480 22 10 511
514 4 528 490 28 10 528
532 4 546 501 35 10 546
47 0 55 22 27 6 55
40 0 46 23 17 6 46
43 0 49 23 20 6 49
48 0 54 24 24 6 54
49 0 55 24 25 6 55
50 0 56 25 26 6 56
52 0 58 25 27 6 58
53 0 59 26 28 6 59
55 0 61 26 29 6 61
57 0 63 27 30 6 63
59 0 65 27 31 6 65
204 1 225 92 118 15 225
199 1 215 95 105 14 215
214 1 229 97 118 13 229
228 1 242 100 130 12 242
236 1 249 102 136 11 249
245 1 257 105 142 10 257
253 1 264 107 147 10 264
262 1 273 110 154 10 273
272 1 283 112 160 10 283
281 1 292 115 167 10 292
291 1 302 118 175 10 302
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2005
(Kilograms) 4,246
384 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Australian Dairy Su upply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Milk Cow Numbers
2,238
2,288
2,298
2,289
(Thousand Head) 2,280 2,270 2,260
2,250
2,242
2,235
2,223
Milk Production per Cow
5,012
5,086
5,144
5,193
5,257
5,388
5,456
5,526
5,599
5,671
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
11,216 1,987 9,147
11,635 2,006 9,546
11,821 2,035 9,700
11,888 2,058 9,742
(Thousand Metric Tons) 11,984 12,079 12,176 2,075 2,091 2,107 9,818 9,896 9,976
12,278 2,122 10,060
12,390 2,136 10,155
12,513 2,150 10,263
12,608 2,164 10,341
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
189 10 220 61 139 20 220
197 11 228 62 147 19 228
194 11 224 62 145 16 224
190 11 217 63 138 15 217
188 11 214 64 136 15 214
186 11 212 65 134 14 212
185 11 210 65 131 13 210
184 11 208 66 130 12 208
184 11 207 67 129 12 207
183 11 206 67 128 11 206
183 11 205 68 127 10 205
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
367 38 452 210 222 20 452
390 38 448 212 214 22 448
411 38 470 219 229 23 470
424 38 485 227 234 24 485
437 38 499 232 242 25 499
449 38 512 237 250 25 512
461 38 524 242 256 26 524
474 38 537 248 263 26 537
486 38 551 252 271 27 551
499 38 564 257 279 27 564
511 38 576 263 286 28 576
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
265 0 274 30 240 4 274
276 0 280 29 248 3 280
267 0 271 30 237 4 271
257 0 261 31 227 3 261
252 0 255 32 221 2 255
247 0 249 32 216 1 249
243 0 244 33 211 0 244
239 0 240 33 207 0 240
236 0 236 33 203 0 236
234 0 234 34 200 0 234
231 0 231 34 196 0 231
Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
190 0 193 20 169 4 193
195 0 199 21 174 4 199
202 0 206 21 181 4 206
204 0 208 21 183 4 208
206 0 210 22 184 4 210
207 0 211 22 185 4 211
208 0 212 22 186 4 212
209 0 213 23 186 4 213
210 0 214 23 187 4 214
211 0 215 23 187 4 215
211 0 215 24 187 4 215
Milk Farm Prices Industrial Milk, Wholesale Fluid Milk Retail Milk
21 31 115
23 32 114
22 32 113
22 31 111
(Australian Cents per Liter) 22 22 22 31 31 31 111 111 111
22 31 111
22 32 112
22 32 113
23 33 114
2,234 3,739 2,967
2,411 3,816 2,919
2,554 3,830 2,736
2,528 3,705 2,745
2,563 3,739 2,775
2,613 3,784 2,813
2,678 3,826 2,857
Export Prices Butter Cheese NFD Powder
2005
(Kilograms) 5,322
(Australian Dollars per Metric Ton) 2,490 2,494 2,508 2,509 3,712 3,699 3,699 3,692 2,679 2,691 2,698 2,724
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 385
Brazilian Dairy Supp pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
16,040
16,045
16,062
16,097
Milk Production per Cow
1,380
1,421
1,461
1,502
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
22,134 12,754 9,330
22,800 12,931 9,718
23,467 13,227 10,089
24,185 13,536 10,498
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
72 12 84 84 0 0 84
73 5 78 78 0 0 78
72 6 78 78 0 0 78
73 7 80 80 0 0 80
74 9 83 83 0 0 83
76 10 86 86 0 0 86
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
445 18 463 463 0 0 463
455 16 471 471 0 0 471
471 10 481 481 0 0 481
483 14 496 496 0 0 496
498 13 511 511 0 0 511
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
62 41 109 106 0 3 109
62 41 107 107 0 0 107
60 51 111 111 0 0 111
60 54 114 114 0 0 114
Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
256 125 431 395 0 36 431
269 109 415 410 0 5 415
285 135 424 419 0 5 424
296 136 437 432 0 5 437
Milk Cow Numbers
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Thousand Head) 16,149 16,211 16,280
16,358
16,443
16,537
16,638
1,628
1,664
1,701
1,738
1,775
(Thousand Metric Tons) 24,936 25,708 26,498 13,838 14,114 14,390 10,947 11,443 11,955
27,223 14,662 12,408
27,971 14,930 12,887
28,743 15,198 13,390
29,533 15,456 13,921
78 11 89 89 0 0 89
79 12 91 91 0 0 91
80 14 94 94 0 0 94
82 14 96 96 0 0 96
84 15 98 98 0 0 98
515 12 527 527 0 0 527
533 11 544 544 0 0 544
548 13 561 561 0 0 561
564 14 578 578 0 0 578
581 15 596 595 1 0 596
601 18 619 612 7 0 619
61 56 117 117 0 0 117
62 58 120 120 0 0 120
64 59 124 124 0 0 124
65 62 127 127 0 0 127
66 64 130 130 0 0 130
68 66 133 133 0 0 133
69 67 137 137 0 0 137
308 137 450 445 0 5 450
322 135 462 457 0 5 462
337 133 475 470 0 5 475
349 134 488 483 0 5 488
363 134 502 497 0 5 502
376 135 516 511 0 5 516
391 134 530 525 0 5 530
1,544
2005
(Kilograms) 1,586
386 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Bulgaria Dairy Supp ply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
448
447
449
453
Milk Production per Cow
3,090
3,090
3,105
3,119
3,129
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
1,384 1,159 446
1,383 1,149 452
1,394 1,139 474
1,412 1,129 503
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2 1 2 3 0 0 3
2 1 3 3 0 0 3
1 2 3 3 0 0 3
2 2 4 4 0 0 4
2 2 4 4 0 0 4
2 3 4 4 0 0 5
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
56 2 58 57 1 0 58
56 5 62 61 1 0 62
59 6 65 64 1 0 65
63 6 69 68 1 0 69
66 6 72 71 1 0 72
1 3 4 4 0 0 4
1 4 4 4 0 0 4
1 4 4 4 0 0 4
1 4 5 5 0 0 5
1 4 5 5 0 0 5
Milk Cow Numbers
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
457
456
455
453
451
3,146
3,155
3,163
3,172
3,180
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,424 1,432 1,437 1,118 1,107 1,096 525 544 559
1,438 1,085 571
1,438 1,075 581
1,437 1,064 590
1,434 1,054 598
2 3 5 5 0 0 5
1 4 5 5 0 0 5
1 4 5 6 0 0 6
1 4 6 6 0 0 6
1 5 6 6 0 0 6
68 7 75 74 1 0 75
70 8 78 77 1 0 78
71 10 82 81 1 0 82
73 12 85 84 1 0 85
74 14 88 87 1 0 88
75 16 91 90 1 0 91
1 4 5 5 0 0 5
1 4 5 5 0 0 5
1 4 5 5 0 0 5
1 4 5 5 0 0 5
1 5 5 5 0 0 5
1 5 5 5 0 0 5
(Thousand Head) 455 456 (Kilograms) 3,138
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 387
Canadian Dairy Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Milk Cow Numbers
1,235
1,226
1,213
1,210
(Thousand Head) 1,203 1,193 1,184
1,176
1,169
1,163
1,157
Milk Production per Cow
6,551
6,685
6,762
6,842
6,957
7,167
7,259
7,350
7,443
7,538
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
8,090 2,850 4,786
8,196 2,851 4,894
8,203 2,880 4,878
8,279 2,910 4,924
(Thousand Metric Tons) 8,372 8,434 8,486 2,942 2,974 3,006 4,987 5,021 5,044
8,536 3,039 5,064
8,595 3,073 5,091
8,660 3,107 5,125
8,724 3,141 5,157
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
88 7 108 82 9 17 108
88 4 109 84 9 17 109
87 2 106 83 4 18 106
87 2 108 84 4 19 108
89 2 110 84 4 21 110
88 2 111 85 4 22 111
86 2 110 86 4 20 110
84 2 106 87 1 18 106
83 2 103 88 1 14 103
82 2 98 89 0 10 99
81 8 99 91 0 9 99
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
329 30 401 331 25 45 401
337 25 407 335 27 46 407
340 25 411 339 26 46 411
344 25 415 344 25 46 415
349 25 420 349 25 46 420
354 25 425 355 24 47 425
359 25 431 361 24 46 431
363 25 434 367 22 45 434
368 25 438 374 20 44 438
373 25 441 382 17 43 441
377 25 445 389 14 42 445
67 0 78 36 36 6 78
67 1 74 38 30 6 74
63 1 70 38 27 5 70
63 1 69 38 26 5 69
65 1 70 39 27 5 70
62 1 69 39 25 5 69
58 1 64 39 20 4 64
54 1 59 40 16 4 59
51 1 56 40 12 4 56
48 1 53 41 9 3 53
45 1 49 41 5 3 49
56.35 63.10
56.95 63.65
57.80 64.43
58.60 65.16
(Canadian Dollar per Hectoliter) 59.40 60.20 61.05 65.89 66.62 67.40
61.94 68.21
62.84 69.04
63.76 69.88
64.69 70.72
5.54 4.61
5.61 4.70
5.68 4.84
5.76 4.92
(Canadian Dollars per Kilogram) 5.85 5.90 5.95 4.97 5.04 5.08
6.00 5.16
6.06 5.23
6.13 5.31
6.19 5.39
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use Prices Industrial Milk, Target Fluid Milk
Butter Support NFD Support
2005
(Kilograms) 7,067
388 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Czech Republic Daiiry Supply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
660
662
655
646
Milk Production per Cow
4,226
4,277
4,326
4,382
4,437
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
2,790 941 1,655
2,832 956 1,681
2,832 967 1,668
2,829 976 1,659
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
65 1 66 41 25 0 66
65 1 66 41 25 0 66
64 1 65 41 24 0 65
65 1 66 41 25 0 66
65 1 66 41 24 0 66
65 1 65 42 24 0 65
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
115 13 139 118 11 11 139
116 5 132 121 0 11 132
115 8 134 123 0 11 134
111 14 137 126 0 11 137
110 18 138 127 0 11 138
60 0 60 23 38 0 60
61 0 62 25 36 0 62
59 0 59 27 32 0 59
61 0 61 28 31 2 61
61 0 63 29 32 2 63
Milk Cow Numbers
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
630
632
637
645
655
4,559
4,621
4,684
4,746
4,811
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,834 2,842 2,873 984 989 995 1,656 1,661 1,687
2,921 1,000 1,731
2,985 1,005 1,789
3,063 1,011 1,861
3,153 1,014 1,945
65 1 66 42 24 0 66
66 1 67 43 25 0 67
68 1 69 43 26 0 69
69 1 70 43 27 0 70
72 1 72 43 29 0 72
109 19 140 129 0 11 140
111 19 141 130 0 11 141
113 18 142 131 0 11 142
118 15 143 132 0 11 143
123 11 145 134 0 11 145
129 6 146 135 0 11 146
61 0 63 29 32 2 63
62 0 64 29 33 2 64
63 0 65 30 34 2 65
65 0 67 30 35 2 67
68 0 70 30 37 2 70
71 0 73 31 40 2 73
(Thousand Head) 639 632 (Kilograms) 4,498
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 389
European Union Da airy Supply and Utilization
Milk Cow Numbers Milk Production per Cow Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
2000
2001
2002
2003
21,152
20,934
20,692
20,453
5,667
5,746
5,815
5,882
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Thousand Head) 20,220 20,054 19,892
19,728
19,501
19,282
19,068
6,148
6,216
6,285
6,356
(Kilograms) 5,947 6,014
6,080
(Thousand Metric Tons) 119,878 120,278 120,325 120,310 120,242 120,614 120,953 121,295 121,210 121,180 121,191 32,124 32,108 32,086 32,037 31,972 31,958 31,951 31,922 31,804 31,652 31,518 87,829 88,348 88,468 88,551 88,594 89,015 89,395 89,803 89,884 90,056 90,251
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,705 81 2,094 1,632 152 310 2,094
1,719 80 2,108 1,629 161 318 2,108
1,721 79 2,118 1,623 168 327 2,118
1,718 78 2,123 1,617 173 333 2,123
1,716 78 2,127 1,612 174 340 2,127
1,714 77 2,131 1,610 178 343 2,131
1,712 75 2,130 1,611 182 337 2,130
1,709 74 2,120 1,608 187 325 2,120
1,701 74 2,099 1,597 190 311 2,099
1,697 74 2,082 1,582 193 307 2,082
1,695 73 2,075 1,570 198 308 2,075
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
5,962 153 7,470 5,825 409 1,236 7,470
6,128 150 7,514 5,875 403 1,236 7,514
6,188 151 7,574 5,933 400 1,242 7,574
6,245 156 7,643 5,987 409 1,247 7,643
6,298 157 7,701 6,041 411 1,250 7,701
6,370 156 7,776 6,102 415 1,259 7,776
6,440 154 7,854 6,165 419 1,269 7,854
6,509 152 7,930 6,226 426 1,279 7,930
6,553 152 7,983 6,272 432 1,279 7,983
6,597 151 8,027 6,314 438 1,276 8,027
6,651 151 8,077 6,358 444 1,275 8,077
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,079 83 1,475 949 349 177 1,475
1,083 84 1,344 921 273 150 1,344
1,081 86 1,317 904 273 140 1,317
1,068 86 1,293 890 273 129 1,293
1,057 86 1,272 875 273 124 1,272
1,044 85 1,253 861 273 118 1,253
1,030 85 1,234 845 273 116 1,234
1,016 85 1,217 831 273 113 1,217
995 85 1,193 817 273 103 1,193
984 85 1,172 803 273 96 1,172
975 84 1,156 790 273 92 1,156
Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
1,072 6 1,120 524 555 41 1,120
1,056 6 1,103 529 534 41 1,103
1,048 6 1,095 529 525 41 1,095
1,054 6 1,101 528 532 41 1,101
1,053 6 1,100 526 533 41 1,100
1,051 6 1,098 527 530 41 1,098
1,050 6 1,097 527 529 41 1,097
1,050 6 1,097 527 530 41 1,097
1,048 6 1,095 524 530 41 1,095
1,046 6 1,093 522 530 41 1,093
1,046 6 1,093 519 533 41 1,093
Prices Milk Target Milk Producer
30.98 28.80
30.98 28.63
30.98 28.31
30.98 28.10
(Euro per 100 Kilograms) 30.98 30.11 28.35 27.90 27.32 26.63
26.60 26.02
25.72 25.95
25.72 26.10
25.72 26.10
357 469 223 277 328 206
352 472 223 263 328 206
346 468 223 258 328 206
342 464 222 258 328 206
304 436 212 239 287 180
303 435 212 238 279 175
305 438 213 239 279 175
304 438 213 239 279 175
Butter Domestic Cheese Domestic SMP Domestic WMP Domestic Butter Intervention SMP Intervention
337 462 222 256 328 206
327 454 219 251 320 200
314 445 215 244 304 190
390 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Hungarian Dairy Su upply and Utilization
Milk Cow Numbers Milk Production per Cow Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
2000
2001
2002
2003
375
381
379
376
5,575
5,634
5,691
2004
2005
(Thousand Head) 374 366
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
358
352
344
339
335
5,752
(Kilograms) 5,813 5,872
5,932
5,991
6,050
6,109
6,168
(Thousand Metric Tons) 2,171 2,147 2,125 904 907 909 1,104 1,078 1,056
2,111 912 1,042
2,084 914 1,015
2,070 916 1,002
2,064 918 995
2,088 890 1,035
2,147 896 1,089
2,156 899 1,093
2,162 902 1,097
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
16 0 16 12 4 0 16
17 0 17 13 4 0 17
17 0 17 13 4 0 17
17 0 17 14 3 0 17
17 0 17 14 3 0 17
17 0 17 15 2 0 17
16 0 16 16 1 0 16
16 0 16 16 0 0 16
15 2 17 17 0 0 17
15 3 18 18 0 0 18
15 4 19 19 0 0 19
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
89 7 96 85 11 0 96
94 7 101 87 14 0 101
94 7 102 89 13 0 102
95 7 102 91 11 0 102
95 7 102 93 9 0 102
92 7 99 95 4 0 99
89 8 97 97 0 0 97
87 12 99 99 0 0 99
84 17 101 101 0 0 101
82 21 104 104 0 0 104
81 25 106 106 0 0 106
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
14 1 15 9 6 0 15
15 1 16 10 6 0 16
15 1 16 11 5 0 16
15 1 16 11 5 0 16
15 1 16 11 5 0 16
15 1 16 12 4 0 16
14 1 15 12 3 0 15
14 1 15 12 3 0 15
14 1 15 13 2 0 15
14 1 15 13 2 0 15
14 1 15 13 1 0 15
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 391
Indian Dairy Supply y and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
35,750
35,885
35,951
35,992
Milk Production per Cow
1,014
1,016
1,020
1,025
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
36,250 33,000 46,000
36,472 33,135 47,583
36,659 33,699 48,187
36,875 34,254 48,799
1,950 5 1,955 1,953 2 0 1,955
2,256 2 2,258 2,248 10 0 2,258
2,385 1 2,386 2,379 7 0 2,386
2,456 1 2,457 2,450 7 0 2,457
2,525 1 2,526 2,517 9 0 2,526
2,589 1 2,590 2,580 10 0 2,590
150 3 195 150 12 33 195
165 2 200 165 8 27 200
175 2 204 171 6 27 204
184 2 213 176 10 27 213
192 2 221 181 13 27 221
200 2 229 186 16 27 229
Milk Cow Numbers
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Thousand Head) 36,023 36,045 36,056
36,059
36,056
36,052
36,047
1,039
1,044
1,049
1,054
1,059
(Thousand Metric Tons) 37,081 37,275 37,459 34,810 35,378 35,947 49,373 49,894 50,375
37,634 36,525 50,810
37,806 37,102 51,215
37,983 37,677 51,598
38,157 38,252 51,952
2,647 1 2,648 2,637 11 0 2,648
2,705 1 2,706 2,694 12 0 2,706
2,766 1 2,767 2,753 14 0 2,767
2,829 1 2,830 2,813 16 0 2,830
2,893 1 2,894 2,875 19 0 2,894
208 2 237 192 18 27 237
216 2 245 198 20 27 245
224 2 253 204 22 27 253
232 2 261 210 24 27 261
241 2 270 217 26 27 270
1,029
2005
(Kilograms) 1,034
392 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Japanese Dairy Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
992
990
984
980
Milk Production per Cow
8,569
8,599
8,683
8,769
8,855
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
8,500 4,950 3,450
8,514 4,959 3,456
8,547 4,980 3,468
8,591 4,999 3,493
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
92 0 121 80 0 41 121
91 0 132 82 0 49 132
91 0 141 83 0 58 141
92 0 149 84 0 65 149
92 0 157 85 0 72 157
93 0 165 85 0 80 165
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
36 197 248 233 0 15 248
38 199 252 237 0 15 252
41 198 254 239 0 15 254
41 200 256 241 0 15 256
40 202 257 242 0 15 257
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
197 53 284 247 0 37 284
195 53 286 249 0 37 286
197 53 287 250 0 37 287
200 53 289 252 0 37 289
201 53 291 254 0 37 291
Prices Milk Farm Price Butter Wholesale NFD Wholesale Cheese Retail
82 964 546 1,820
81 974 559 1,831
81 990 577 1,840
81 998 582 1,840
Milk Cow Numbers
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
964
959
952
945
938
9,030
9,118
9,204
9,290
9,365
(Thousand Metric Tons) 8,627 8,662 8,702 5,017 5,029 5,039 3,512 3,536 3,566
8,741 5,050 3,594
8,766 5,061 3,609
8,781 5,073 3,613
8,780 5,084 3,602
93 0 173 86 0 87 173
94 0 181 87 0 94 181
95 0 189 88 0 100 189
95 0 195 90 0 105 195
95 0 200 91 0 109 200
39 204 259 244 0 15 259
38 206 260 245 0 15 260
36 210 261 246 0 15 261
35 213 263 248 0 15 263
33 215 264 249 0 15 264
32 218 265 250 0 15 265
204 52 293 256 0 37 293
207 50 294 257 0 37 294
210 48 296 259 0 37 296
213 47 297 260 0 37 297
214 48 298 261 0 37 298
213 49 300 263 0 37 300
(Yen per Kilogram) 81 82 82 1,007 1,022 1,029 589 589 597 1,839 1,830 1,817
82 1,029 622 1,805
83 1,024 642 1,794
83 1,019 656 1,788
82 1,010 670 1,794
(Thousand Head) 974 969 (Kilograms) 8,943
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 393
Mexican Dairy Supp ply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Milk Cow Numbers
1,900
1,950
2,001
2,043
(Thousand Head) 2,087 2,131 2,174
2,219
2,263
2,308
2,354
Milk Production per Cow
4,842
4,870
4,912
4,946
4,985
5,062
5,102
5,141
5,181
5,221
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
9,200 3,860 5,490
9,497 4,026 5,621
9,827 4,089 5,888
10,107 4,159 6,099
(Thousand Metric Tons) 10,401 10,700 11,008 4,230 4,305 4,384 6,321 6,545 6,774
11,320 4,464 7,005
11,634 4,545 7,238
11,956 4,626 7,480
12,291 4,709 7,731
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
18 25 43 43 0 0 43
20 24 45 45 0 0 45
25 20 45 45 0 0 45
28 18 46 46 0 0 46
31 16 47 47 0 0 47
34 14 48 48 0 0 48
37 13 50 50 0 0 50
40 11 51 51 0 0 51
43 9 52 52 0 0 52
47 7 53 53 0 0 53
50 5 55 55 0 0 55
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
135 45 180 180 0 0 180
137 47 184 184 0 0 184
148 40 188 188 0 0 188
156 37 193 193 0 0 193
162 36 198 198 0 0 198
167 36 203 203 0 0 203
171 37 209 209 0 0 209
175 40 214 214 0 0 214
178 43 220 220 0 0 220
181 46 226 226 0 0 226
184 48 232 232 0 0 232
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
140 105 294 250 0 44 294
144 97 285 256 0 29 285
152 100 282 262 0 20 282
157 109 286 266 0 20 286
163 108 291 271 0 20 291
168 107 296 276 0 20 296
174 107 300 280 0 20 300
179 106 306 286 0 20 306
185 106 311 291 0 20 311
191 105 316 296 0 20 316
197 105 321 301 0 20 321
(Kilograms) 5,022
394 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
New Zealand Dairy Supply S and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Milk Cow Numbers
3,300
3,341
3,401
3,436
(Thousand Head) 3,465 3,483 3,502
3,523
3,543
3,566
3,581
Milk Production per Cow
3,889
3,957
3,849
3,886
3,925
4,001
4,038
4,076
4,114
4,153
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
12,835 400 11,931
13,219 410 12,298
13,094 415 12,159
13,352 416 12,412
(Thousand Metric Tons) 13,599 13,804 14,012 420 423 426 12,651 12,850 13,053
14,226 428 13,260
14,444 431 13,472
14,672 434 13,694
14,871 437 13,888
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
347 0 440 27 338 75 440
344 0 419 27 339 53 419
338 0 391 27 311 53 391
343 0 396 27 316 53 396
347 0 400 28 319 53 400
350 0 403 28 322 53 403
354 0 407 28 325 53 407
357 0 410 28 329 53 410
361 0 414 29 332 53 414
364 0 417 29 336 53 417
368 0 421 29 339 53 421
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
270 0 283 30 241 12 283
289 0 301 27 262 12 301
279 0 291 30 249 12 291
295 0 307 31 264 12 307
304 0 316 31 273 12 316
314 0 326 32 282 12 326
323 0 335 33 290 12 335
333 0 345 34 300 12 345
344 0 356 34 310 12 356
355 0 367 35 320 12 367
364 0 376 35 328 12 376
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
210 0 264 11 204 49 264
191 0 240 11 186 43 240
180 0 223 12 168 43 223
186 0 229 12 174 43 229
191 0 234 12 179 43 234
194 0 237 12 182 43 237
199 0 242 12 187 43 242
203 0 246 12 191 43 246
207 0 250 12 195 43 250
212 0 255 12 199 43 255
216 0 259 12 204 43 259
Whole Milk Powder Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
420 0 460 34 382 44 460
497 0 541 35 462 45 541
502 0 547 35 466 45 547
511 0 556 36 474 46 556
520 0 566 36 484 46 566
528 0 574 37 491 47 574
535 0 582 37 498 47 582
543 0 590 37 505 47 590
551 0 598 38 513 48 598
559 0 606 38 520 48 606
565 0 613 39 526 48 613
(Kilograms) 3,963
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 395
Polish Dairy Supply y and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Milk Cow Numbers
3,296
3,205
3,192
3,194
(Thousand Head) 3,181 3,159 3,189
3,198
3,205
3,213
3,228
Milk Production per Cow
3,580
3,738
3,765
3,817
3,877
4,034
4,122
4,211
4,294
4,364
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
11,800 5,050 6,080
11,979 4,987 6,363
12,016 4,958 6,441
12,191 5,002 6,575
(Thousand Metric Tons) 12,334 12,484 12,866 5,043 5,083 5,132 6,675 6,787 7,124
13,183 5,166 7,401
13,495 5,187 7,691
13,796 5,214 7,964
14,088 5,230 8,239
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
162 12 178 171 3 4 178
163 8 175 171 0 4 175
163 7 174 170 0 4 174
164 7 175 171 0 4 175
165 6 175 172 0 4 175
167 6 176 172 0 4 176
170 3 177 173 0 4 177
173 1 178 174 0 4 178
175 1 181 175 2 4 181
178 1 183 175 5 4 183
181 1 186 175 7 4 186
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
145 5 156 145 7 4 156
157 2 163 141 17 4 163
159 2 165 143 18 4 165
160 2 166 145 16 5 166
160 2 167 148 14 5 167
162 2 169 150 13 5 169
165 2 173 153 14 6 173
168 2 176 155 15 6 176
171 2 179 157 15 7 179
174 2 182 160 16 7 182
176 2 185 162 15 7 185
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
100 8 128 30 70 28 128
107 8 143 29 78 36 143
107 8 151 30 83 38 151
110 8 155 31 87 37 155
112 8 157 32 88 37 157
114 8 159 33 89 38 159
120 8 166 34 94 38 166
125 8 171 34 99 38 171
130 8 176 35 103 38 176
135 8 181 36 108 38 181
141 8 187 36 113 38 187
(Kilograms) 3,952
396 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Romanian Dairy Su upply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Milk Cow Numbers
1,592
1,588
1,583
1,581
(Thousand Head) 1,580 1,574 1,565
1,554
1,543
1,534
1,528
Milk Production per Cow
2,698
2,711
2,729
2,749
2,768
2,807
2,826
2,846
2,866
2,885
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
4,294 3,788 296
4,303 3,791 304
4,320 3,785 329
4,347 3,776 364
(Thousand Metric Tons) 4,372 4,387 4,393 3,767 3,756 3,745 400 428 447
4,392 3,735 461
4,392 3,725 475
4,397 3,715 493
4,409 3,705 517
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
8 0 8 7 1 0 8
8 0 8 8 1 0 8
9 0 9 8 1 0 9
9 0 9 8 1 0 9
9 0 9 9 1 0 9
10 0 10 9 1 0 10
10 0 10 10 0 0 10
10 0 10 10 0 0 10
10 0 10 10 0 0 10
10 0 11 11 0 0 11
11 1 11 11 0 0 11
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
42 8 50 49 1 0 50
44 12 55 54 1 0 55
47 9 56 55 1 0 56
52 5 58 57 1 0 58
58 2 59 58 1 0 59
62 1 63 60 3 0 63
64 1 65 61 4 0 65
66 1 67 62 5 0 67
68 1 69 64 6 0 69
71 1 72 65 7 0 72
74 1 75 67 8 0 75
5 0 5 4 1 0 5
5 0 5 4 1 0 5
5 0 5 5 1 0 5
6 0 6 5 1 0 6
7 0 7 5 1 0 7
7 0 7 6 2 0 7
8 0 8 6 2 0 8
8 0 8 6 2 0 8
8 0 8 6 2 0 8
8 0 8 7 2 0 8
9 0 9 7 2 0 9
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2005
(Kilograms) 2,787
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 397
Russian Dairy Supp ply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
13,450
13,491
13,488
13,452
Milk Production per Cow
2,372
2,372
2,394
2,417
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
31,900 14,300 14,513
31,998 14,212 14,676
32,296 14,117 15,070
32,512 14,025 15,386
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
275 40 355 322 3 30 355
291 52 374 339 3 32 374
298 39 369 333 3 33 369
300 44 377 341 3 33 377
303 48 384 347 3 33 384
307 50 390 354 3 34 390
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
220 65 292 279 5 8 292
226 68 302 289 5 8 302
218 69 295 282 5 8 295
220 74 302 289 5 8 302
221 78 307 294 5 8 307
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
120 30 160 150 10 0 160
130 30 160 150 10 0 160
132 30 162 152 10 0 162
138 29 167 157 10 0 167
143 28 171 161 10 0 171
Milk Cow Numbers
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(Thousand Head) 13,393 13,404 13,468
13,574
13,715
13,891
14,101
2,488
2,511
2,535
2,559
2,584
(Thousand Metric Tons) 32,685 33,029 33,503 13,938 13,851 13,769 15,661 16,088 16,629
34,087 13,686 17,272
34,767 13,609 17,997
35,547 13,547 18,798
36,430 13,503 19,677
312 54 399 362 3 34 399
317 57 408 370 3 35 408
322 62 418 380 4 35 418
327 71 433 394 4 36 433
333 82 452 412 4 36 452
222 86 316 303 5 8 316
225 94 328 315 5 8 328
227 104 339 326 5 8 339
229 116 353 340 5 8 353
231 132 370 357 5 8 370
234 149 391 378 5 8 391
149 26 175 165 10 0 175
158 22 180 169 11 0 180
166 18 184 174 11 0 184
176 14 190 179 11 0 190
186 12 198 187 11 0 198
198 10 209 197 11 0 209
2,441
2005
(Kilograms) 2,464
398 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Slovakian Republic c Dairy Supply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
261
256
258
262
Milk Production per Cow
4,106
4,225
4,274
4,326
4,385
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
1,072 426 643
1,081 429 649
1,103 433 666
1,132 438 691
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
16 1 17 14 2 0 17
16 1 17 15 2 0 17
17 0 17 15 2 0 17
17 0 17 15 2 0 17
18 0 18 15 3 0 18
18 0 18 15 3 0 18
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
50 4 53 49 4 0 53
50 4 53 50 3 0 53
51 4 55 50 4 0 55
53 4 57 51 6 0 57
56 4 59 52 7 0 59
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
16 0 16 10 6 0 16
16 0 17 10 7 0 17
17 0 17 10 7 0 17
17 0 18 10 8 0 18
18 0 18 10 8 0 18
Milk Cow Numbers
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
274
275
275
274
273
4,475
4,529
4,575
4,625
4,674
(Thousand Metric Tons) 1,168 1,201 1,225 443 449 453 723 749 769
1,245 458 784
1,256 462 791
1,265 467 795
1,275 472 800
19 0 19 15 3 0 19
19 0 19 16 4 0 19
19 0 19 16 4 0 19
19 0 19 16 3 0 19
19 0 19 16 3 0 19
57 4 61 53 8 0 61
59 4 62 53 9 0 62
60 4 63 54 9 0 63
60 4 63 54 9 0 63
60 4 64 55 8 0 64
60 4 64 56 8 0 64
19 0 19 10 9 0 19
19 0 20 10 9 0 20
20 0 20 11 9 0 20
20 0 20 11 10 0 20
20 0 20 11 10 0 20
20 0 20 11 10 0 20
(Thousand Head) 266 271 (Kilograms) 4,426
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 399
Slovenia Dairy Supp ply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
206
212
214
215
3,061
3,122
3,138
3,168
629 300 235
663 303 265
671 304 272
680 305 279
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
4 0 4 3 1 0 4
5 0 5 3 1 0 5
5 0 5 3 1 0 5
5 0 5 3 1 0 5
5 0 5 4 2 0 5
5 0 5 4 2 0 5
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
24 1 25 21 4 0 25
27 1 28 21 6 0 28
27 1 29 22 7 0 29
28 1 29 22 7 0 29
29 1 30 22 8 0 30
4 0 4 1 2 0 4
4 0 4 2 3 0 4
4 0 4 2 3 0 4
4 0 4 2 3 0 4
5 0 5 2 3 0 5
Milk Cow Numbers
Milk Production per Cow
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
215
215
214
213
212
3,259
3,290
3,314
3,343
3,370
(Thousand Metric Tons) 690 695 700 306 307 308 288 293 297
706 308 302
708 309 304
712 310 306
716 311 310
5 0 5 4 2 0 5
5 0 5 4 2 0 5
5 0 5 4 1 0 5
5 0 5 4 1 0 5
5 0 6 4 1 0 6
29 1 30 23 8 0 30
30 1 31 23 8 0 31
30 1 31 24 8 0 31
30 1 31 24 7 0 31
30 1 32 25 7 0 32
31 1 32 25 7 0 32
5 0 5 2 3 0 5
5 0 5 2 3 0 5
5 0 5 2 3 0 5
5 0 5 2 3 0 5
5 0 5 2 3 0 5
5 0 5 2 3 0 5
(Thousand Head) 215 215
3,202
(Kilograms) 3,230
400 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Swiss Dairy Supply y and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
725
719
716
711
Milk Production per Cow
5,341
5,368
5,394
5,440
5,480
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
3,870 684 2,564
3,859 689 2,548
3,864 696 2,546
3,866 695 2,549
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
40 4 48 44 0 4 48
40 5 48 44 0 4 48
40 5 48 44 0 4 48
40 5 48 44 0 4 48
40 5 49 45 0 4 49
40 5 49 45 0 4 49
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
140 28 193 105 62 25 193
138 28 191 103 62 25 191
138 28 191 104 62 25 191
138 28 191 104 62 25 191
140 28 193 104 63 25 193
20 0 20 14 6 0 20
20 0 20 15 5 0 20
20 0 20 15 4 0 20
20 0 20 15 4 0 20
20 0 20 15 4 0 20
Milk Cow Numbers
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
703
699
695
692
689
5,547
5,584
5,621
5,659
5,697
(Thousand Metric Tons) 3,883 3,897 3,902 697 702 706 2,564 2,572 2,574
3,904 708 2,574
3,909 711 2,576
3,917 713 2,582
3,926 714 2,590
40 5 49 45 0 4 49
40 5 49 45 0 4 49
40 6 50 46 0 4 50
40 6 50 46 0 4 50
40 6 50 46 0 4 50
140 28 193 105 63 25 193
140 28 193 106 62 25 193
139 28 192 106 61 25 192
139 28 192 107 61 25 192
139 28 192 107 60 25 192
140 28 193 107 60 25 193
20 0 20 16 4 0 20
20 0 20 16 4 0 20
20 0 20 16 4 0 20
20 0 20 16 4 0 20
20 0 20 16 4 0 20
20 0 20 16 4 0 20
(Thousand Head) 709 707 (Kilograms) 5,513
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 401
Ukrainian Dairy Sup pply and Utilization 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Milk Cow Numbers
5,431
5,281
5,167
5,128
(Thousand Head) 5,095 5,066 5,086
5,129
5,191
5,224
5,242
Milk Production per Cow
2,246
2,263
2,275
2,298
2,316
2,353
2,372
2,392
2,412
2,432
Milk Production Fluid Milk Consumption Manufacturing Use
12,200 2,950 9,100
11,952 2,992 8,835
11,755 3,030 8,618
11,782 3,061 8,621
(Thousand Metric Tons) 11,800 11,826 11,968 3,086 3,106 3,130 8,620 8,631 8,745
12,168 3,157 8,911
12,416 3,184 9,122
12,601 3,215 9,270
12,750 3,249 9,382
Butter Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
120 2 132 105 12 15 132
121 2 138 108 16 15 138
121 2 138 108 15 15 138
121 2 138 109 14 15 138
121 2 138 111 13 15 138
121 2 138 111 12 15 138
122 2 139 113 11 15 139
122 2 139 114 11 15 139
123 2 140 115 10 15 140
124 2 141 116 9 15 141
124 2 141 118 8 15 141
Cheese Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
57 1 59 51 7 1 59
64 1 66 49 17 1 66
63 1 65 50 14 1 65
64 1 66 51 13 1 66
64 1 66 53 12 1 66
64 1 66 54 12 1 66
66 1 68 55 12 1 68
68 1 70 56 13 1 70
70 1 72 57 14 1 72
72 1 74 58 15 1 74
74 1 76 60 15 1 76
Nonfat Dry Milk Production Imports Total Supply Consumption Exports Ending Stocks Total Use
45 0 47 17 28 2 47
47 0 49 19 28 2 49
46 0 48 21 25 2 48
46 0 48 22 24 2 48
46 0 48 24 23 2 48
46 0 48 25 21 2 48
47 0 49 26 21 2 49
48 0 50 27 21 2 50
49 0 51 28 20 2 51
49 0 51 30 20 2 51
50 0 52 31 19 2 52
(Kilograms) 2,334
402 / World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook
Per Capita Dairy Co onsumption of Selected Countries 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Argentina Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder
60.9 1.3 11.3 0.6 2.5
60.1 1.2 11.0 0.6 2.6
60.5 1.2 11.1 0.6 2.6
60.9 1.2 11.2 0.6 2.6
61.3 1.3 11.3 0.6 2.6
Australia Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder
103.7 3.2 11.0 1.6 1.0
103.6 3.2 11.0 1.5 1.1
104.1 3.2 11.2 1.6 1.1
104.3 3.2 11.5 1.6 1.1
104.2 3.2 11.7 1.6 1.1
Brazil Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder
73.8 0.5 2.7 0.6 2.3
74.1 0.4 2.7 0.6 2.3
75.1 0.4 2.7 0.6 2.4
76.2 0.5 2.8 0.6 2.4
Canada Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
91.1 2.6 10.6 1.2
90.2 2.7 10.6 1.2
90.3 2.6 10.6 1.2
Czech Republic Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
91.6 4.0 11.4 2.2
93.2 4.0 11.8 2.4
European Union Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder
85.0 4.3 15.4 2.5 1.4
Hungary Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
62.2 1.3 11.6 0.6 2.7
62.6 1.3 11.8 0.6 2.8
63.1 1.3 11.9 0.6 2.8
63.5 1.3 12.0 0.7 2.8
64.0 1.3 12.2 0.7 2.9
104.1 3.2 11.8 1.6 1.1
104.0 3.2 12.0 1.6 1.1
103.8 3.2 12.1 1.6 1.1
103.7 3.2 12.3 1.6 1.1
103.6 3.2 12.4 1.6 1.1
103.4 3.2 12.5 1.6 1.1
77.3 0.5 2.9 0.7 2.5
78.2 0.5 2.9 0.7 2.5
79.2 0.5 3.0 0.7 2.6
80.1 0.5 3.1 0.7 2.6
81.0 0.5 3.1 0.7 2.7
81.9 0.5 3.2 0.7 2.8
82.7 0.5 3.3 0.7 2.8
90.4 2.6 10.7 1.2
90.5 2.6 10.7 1.2
90.6 2.6 10.8 1.2
90.8 2.6 10.9 1.2
91.0 2.6 11.0 1.2
91.2 2.6 11.1 1.2
91.5 2.6 11.2 1.2
91.7 2.6 11.4 1.2
94.3 4.0 12.0 2.6
95.2 4.0 12.3 2.7
96.1 4.1 12.4 2.8
96.7 4.1 12.6 2.8
97.4 4.1 12.7 2.9
98.0 4.2 12.9 2.9
98.6 4.2 13.0 2.9
99.3 4.2 13.2 3.0
99.9 4.3 13.3 3.0
84.8 4.3 15.5 2.4 1.4
84.5 4.3 15.6 2.4 1.4
84.2 4.3 15.7 2.3 1.4
83.9 4.2 15.8 2.3 1.4
83.7 4.2 16.0 2.3 1.4
83.5 4.2 16.1 2.2 1.4
83.3 4.2 16.3 2.2 1.4
82.9 4.2 16.4 2.1 1.4
82.4 4.1 16.4 2.1 1.4
82.0 4.1 16.5 2.1 1.4
87.8 1.2 8.4 0.9
88.7 1.2 8.6 1.0
89.2 1.3 8.8 1.1
89.8 1.3 9.0 1.1
90.3 1.4 9.3 1.1
90.9 1.5 9.5 1.2
91.3 1.6 9.8 1.2
91.9 1.6 10.0 1.2
92.4 1.7 10.2 1.3
92.9 1.8 10.5 1.3
93.4 1.9 10.8 1.3
India Fluid Milk Butter NFD Milk
32.5 1.9 0.1
32.2 2.2 0.2
32.2 2.3 0.2
32.3 2.3 0.2
32.3 2.3 0.2
32.4 2.4 0.2
32.5 2.4 0.2
32.5 2.4 0.2
32.6 2.4 0.2
32.7 2.4 0.2
32.7 2.5 0.2
Japan Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
39.1 0.6 1.8 2.0
39.1 0.6 1.9 2.0
39.2 0.7 1.9 2.0
39.3 0.7 1.9 2.0
39.4 0.7 1.9 2.0
39.5 0.7 1.9 2.0
39.5 0.7 1.9 2.0
39.6 0.7 1.9 2.0
39.7 0.7 1.9 2.0
39.8 0.7 2.0 2.1
40.0 0.7 2.0 2.1
Mexico Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
38.5 0.4 1.8 2.5
39.5 0.4 1.8 2.5
39.5 0.4 1.8 2.5
39.6 0.4 1.8 2.5
39.8 0.4 1.9 2.5
39.9 0.4 1.9 2.6
40.1 0.5 1.9 2.6
40.3 0.5 1.9 2.6
40.5 0.5 2.0 2.6
40.7 0.5 2.0 2.6
41.0 0.5 2.0 2.6
(Kilograms) 61.7 1.3 11.5 0.6 2.7
World Dairy Products: FAPRI 2001 Agricultural Outlook / 403
Per Capita Dairy Co onsumption of Selected Countries (continued) 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
New Zealand Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk Whole Milk Powder
104.7 7.1 7.9 2.9 8.9
106.2 7.0 7.0 2.9 9.0
106.3 6.9 7.6 3.0 9.0
105.3 6.9 7.8 3.0 9.0
105.2 6.9 7.9 3.0 9.1
Poland Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
130.7 4.4 3.8 0.8
129.1 4.4 3.7 0.8
128.4 4.4 3.7 0.8
129.5 4.4 3.8 0.8
130.6 4.4 3.8 0.8
Romania Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
169.0 0.3 2.2 0.2
169.5 0.3 2.4 0.2
169.6 0.4 2.5 0.2
169.6 0.4 2.6 0.2
Russia Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
97.9 2.2 1.9 1.0
97.7 2.3 2.0 1.0
97.4 2.3 1.9 1.1
Switzerland Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
94.2 6.1 14.5 2.0
94.6 6.1 14.2 2.0
Ukraine Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
60.0 2.1 1.0 0.3
United States Total Fluid Milk Butter Cheese NFD Milk
99.8 2.2 14.0 1.3
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
104.4 6.9 8.1 3.0 9.1
104.1 6.9 8.1 3.0 9.1
103.9 6.9 8.2 3.0 9.1
103.6 6.9 8.3 2.9 9.1
103.4 6.8 8.4 2.9 9.1
131.6 4.5 3.9 0.8
132.8 4.5 3.9 0.9
133.6 4.5 4.0 0.9
134.1 4.5 4.1 0.9
134.8 4.5 4.1 0.9
135.2 4.5 4.2 0.9
169.5 0.4 2.6 0.2
169.4 0.4 2.7 0.3
169.2 0.4 2.8 0.3
169.1 0.5 2.8 0.3
169.0 0.5 2.9 0.3
169.0 0.5 3.0 0.3
168.9 0.5 3.0 0.3
97.0 2.4 2.0 1.1
96.7 2.4 2.0 1.1
96.4 2.5 2.1 1.1
96.0 2.5 2.2 1.2
95.6 2.6 2.3 1.2
95.3 2.7 2.4 1.3
95.0 2.8 2.5 1.3
94.9 2.9 2.7 1.4
95.3 6.1 14.2 2.1
95.0 6.1 14.2 2.1
95.1 6.1 14.2 2.1
95.6 6.1 14.3 2.1
95.9 6.2 14.4 2.2
96.2 6.2 14.4 2.2
96.4 6.2 14.5 2.2
96.5 6.2 14.5 2.2
96.7 6.2 14.5 2.2
61.4 2.2 1.0 0.4
62.6 2.2 1.0 0.4
63.7 2.3 1.1 0.5
64.7 2.3 1.1 0.5
65.5 2.4 1.1 0.5
66.4 2.4 1.2 0.5
67.3 2.4 1.2 0.6
68.3 2.5 1.2 0.6
69.3 2.5 1.3 0.6
70.3 2.5 1.3 0.7
99.3 2.2 14.3 1.4
99.2 2.1 14.5 1.6
99.0 2.1 14.7 1.6
98.9 2.0 14.8 1.6
98.8 2.0 15.0 1.5
98.7 2.0 15.1 1.5
98.6 2.0 15.3 1.5
98.6 2.0 15.4 1.5
98.6 2.0 15.6 1.5
98.6 2.0 15.7 1.4
(Kilograms) 104.8 6.9 8.0 3.0 9.1