Baseline-Study MED-ENEC Project Number : 55.3054.8-001.00

Country : MOROCCO

ISTICHAR

Note: This study has been realized under the project "Energy Efficiency in the Construction Sector in the Mediterranean" funded by the European Union. However, information, analysis, points of view and recommendations exposed here reflect exclusively the consultant's opinions and do not represent the point of view of the project.

Note : La présente étude a été réalisée dans le cadre du Projet « Efficience Energétique dans le secteur de la Construction en Méditerranée » (MED-ENEC) financé par l'Union Européenne. Cependant, les informations, analyses, points de vue et recommandations exposés reflètent exclusivement les opinions du consultant, et de ce fait, ne représentent pas le point de vue du projet.

Baseline Situation : Morocco 1. Description of the country and relevant sectors 1.1. Country demographics, urbanisation & economic figures The table in Annex 1 shows the evolution during the last 20 years of few demographic and macroeconomic data. 1.1.1. Country demographics The table above shows the global trends in the Moroccan demographics. Its evolution followed Evolution de la population marocaine (1960 - 2004) Recensement

1960 1971 1982 1994 2004

Urbain

3 389 613 5 409 725 8 730 339 13 407 835 16 463 634

Var.

4,3414% 4,4470% 3,6400% 2,0744%

Rural

8 236 857 9 969 534 11 689 156 12 665 882 13 428 074

Var.

1,7507% 1,4571% 0,6710% 0,5861%

Total

11 626 470 15 379 259 20 419 495 26 073 717 29 891 708

Var.

2,5757% 2,6105% 2,0579% 1,3759%

Urbanis.

29,2% 35,2% 42,8% 51,4% 55,1%

Var.

1,7214% 1,7898% 1,5502% 0,6890%

a standard scenario of developing countries where urban population, even with a lower birth rate, increased faster with the feed of rural exodus. So, following the scenario described below, Morocco moved in 35 years from a strongly rural country (two thirds of population in 1971) to a moderately urban country (55.2% of population in 2004) : - the total population, o is almost double of what it was 35 years ago, with a long term increase of 2.03% yearly, o its increase is just more than half (1.37%) of what it was 35 years ago (2.57%), - the urban population, o is almost 3 times of what it was 35 years ago, with a long term increase of 3.43% yearly, o its increase is a bit less than half (2.07%) of what it was 35 years ago (4.34%), - the population urbanisation rate, o is almost double of what it was 35 years ago, with a long term increase of 1.37% yearly, o its increase is less than half (0.68%) of what it was 35 years ago (1.72%). - the rural population, o is almost 60% higher than what it was 35 years ago, with a long term increase of 0.91% yearly, o its increase tends to become irrelevant (0.58%). 1.1.2. Country economic figures In what follows, country income will be expressed in Morocco local currency, Dirham, commonly abbreviated with “Dh” (common use) or with “MAD” (inter-bank use). In 2004, foreign exchange was such as an approximate exchange rate of 8.20Dh/US$ or 11.20Dh/€ can be considered. Usually Moroccan macroeconomic constant revenues refer to year 1980, but, when needed, data will be brought to 2004. The graphic here below shows the evolution of the Moroccan gross national product during the period 1970-2004 (current Billion Dh and constant Billion Dh with value at 2004). The analysis of the long term constant GNP evolution shows a regular increase of about 3.67%, partly compensated by the population increase (2,03%, as seen above).

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 1 / 2

Produit intérieur brut (G.Dh courant)

Produit intérieur brut (G.Dh 2004)

500 450 400

3,67%

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

The analysis of the global GNP evolution over the last 10 years (1995-2004) does not show a significant difference with the constant GNP long term increase (3.56% instead of 3.67%). Produit intérieur brut par habitant

PIB cst (p/r 2004) par habitant

16 000 14 000

1,61%

12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

The graphic here below shows the evolution of the Moroccan gross national product per capita during the same period than above (current Dh and constant Dh with value at 2004). The analysis of the long term GNP per capita evolution shows a regular increase of about 1.61%. Over the last 35 years, the constant GNP per capita (triangles here above) has almost doubled from 7’919 Dh per capita in 1970 to 14’843 in 2004 (corresponding to 1325 € or 1810 US$) and the analysis of the long term GNP per capita evolution shows a regular increase of about 1.61%. The short term fluctuations are partly circumstantial but in most of cases correlated to the recurrent variations of Agriculture contribution to the GNP which is affected by rainfall changes. The increase of irrigated cultivated lands (from 10.0% on 1974 to more than 14.3% on 1996, probably 17-18% on 2004) was not sufficient (more than 1 million hectares on 2004) to reduce significantly the GNP per capita short term climate dependence. The GNP per capita evolution analysis over the last 10 years (1995-2004) here below shows a significant difference with the long term increase (2.19% instead of 1.61%).

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 2 / 3

Produit intérieur brut par habitant

PIB cst (p/r 2004) par habitant

15 000

2,19% 14 000

13 000

12 000

11 000

10 000 1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

The improvement of the medium term trend of the GNP per capita is essentially due to the roughly constant increase (3.65%) of the global GNP accompanied with a slowing of the population increase. 1.2. Climate and climatic zones, 1.2.1. Country map A country map is shown in Annex 7. It shows the location of main cities among which the ones which climatic data (temperatures, CDD and HDD as well as solar radiation) will be given below. 1.2.2. Temperatures and climatic zones for the country The figure below shows the graph of monthly average of temperatures in 23 cities over the Moroccan territory. The table in Annex shows the same values of the monthly average of temperatures in several cities over the Moroccan territory and in its neighbourhoods. Agadir Benguerir

30 °C

Beni-Mellal Casablanca Ceuta Errachidia

25 °C

Fes Kasba-Tadla Kenitra Laayoun

20 °C

Marrakech Meknes Meknes Melilla

15 °C

Midelt Ouarzazate Oujda Rabat Safi

10 °C

Sidi Ifni Sidi Slimane Tanger 5 °C janv

Taza janv

janv

janv

janv

janv

1.2.3. Heating and cooling degree-days Definition (from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/) 1.2.3.1. Cooling Degree-Days (CDD) and Heating Degree-Days (HDD): CDD is a measure of how hot a location was over a period of time, relative to a base temperature. The CDD for a single day is : - the difference between that day's average temperature and the base temperature if the daily average is greater than the base; - zero if the daily average temperature is less than or equal to the base temperature. Average cooling degree days are the number of degrees the average daily temperature (ADT) is above the base temperature. The base temperature is usually 65 degrees Fahrenheit but cooling degree-days can also be calculated by using a another base temperature. MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 3 / 4

HDD is a measure of how cold a location was over a period of time. Average heating degree days are the number of degrees the ADT is below the base temperature. 1.2.3.2. Cooling and heating degree-days for Morocco The bar chart here below shows the average cooling (CDD) and heating (HDD) degree days for several cities over the Moroccan territory and in its immediate neighbourhoods. To have an acceptable precision, the day-by-day evolution of the daily average temperature was computed with polynomial fit of the monthly ADT, then HDD and CDD were counted on a daily basis. The bar chart here above is sorted by decreasing cooling needs. HDD temp < 18,33 °C Errachidia Ouarzazate Kasba-Tadla Marrakech Beni-Mellal Benguerir Taza Sidi Slimane Fes Dakhla Oujda Safi Melilla (E) Meknes Tanger Kenitra Midelt Agadir Rabat Casablanca Sidi Ifni Ceuta (E)

CDD temp > 18,33 °C 1 008

1 493

1 061 1 021 770

948 794

732 653 586 644 625 624 577 498 489 481 456 446 210 253

434 401

1 122 1 112 1 037 1 008

675 15

1 188 1 156

873 739

1 264

1 181 1 159

748 1 166 810 749 1 777 750 785 1 220

Using the common standard base temperature (65°F) is convenient for comparing different countries together. But for more realistic project implementations in Morocco, we suggest to use different temperatures to calculate cooling (CDD above 69°F or 20.55°C) and heating loads (HDD below 61°F or 16.11°C) loads. 1.2.4. Solar energy horizontal radiation 1.2.4.1. Solar energy horizontal radiation The graph here below shows the yearly evolution of the monthly average of the daily horizontal global solar radiation. This is typically what falls on the floor or on a horizontal roof. Most of the Moroccan buildings having a flat roof structure and the horizontal radiation being in phase opposition with the cooling needs (maximum in summer), it is evident that most of the heat will come from the roofs in the last floors of buildings.

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 4 / 5

Rayonnement solaire horizontal 8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000 Jan

Fév

Mar

Avr

Mai

Jun

Jul

Aou

Sep

Oct

Nov

Déc

Agadir Al Houceima Beni Mellal Bouarfa Casablanca Dakhla El Ayoun El Jadida Errachidia Essaouira Fes Ifrane Khenifra Larache Marrakech Meknes Midelt Nador Nouasser Ouarzazate Oujda Rabat-Sale Safi Sidi Ifni Sidi Slimane Tanger Tan Tan Taza Tetouan

1.2.4.2. Solar energy vertical radiation (facing south) The graph here below shows the yearly evolution of the monthly average of the daily vertical facing south global solar radiation. Typically as what falls on a facing south wall of a building. Rayonnement solaire vertical face sud (kWh/m²) Agadir Al Houceima Beni Mellal Casablanca Dakhla El Ayoun El Jadida Errachidia Essaouira Fes Ifrane Khenifra Larache Marrakech Meknes Midelt Nador Nouasser Ouarzazate Oujda Rabat-Sale Safi Sidi Ifni Sidi Slimane Tanger Tan Tan Taza Tetouan

4,5

3,5

2,5

1,5

01-janv

01-mars

01-mai

01-juil

31-août

30-oct

30-déc

It is evident that the walls facing south are strongly climatic, like everywhere over the Cancer tropic on the northern hemisphere. They receive : - a minimum of solar radiation in summer, - a maximum solar radiation in winter (even more that what is received by the horizontal surface in winter).

2. Energy 2.1. Energy consumption in the last 20 years and projections for 5-10 years (total and per sector: industry, transport, housing, etc.) 2.1.1. Country electric and global energy consumption To make precise electricity and energy consumption forecasts, a valid model is needed. In the two following graphs, each cross corresponds to a given yearly electricity or energy consumption. Both graphs here below show a clear long-term linear dependence of : - Electricity consumption (in GWh) on the product “A” of relative urbanisation and country constant GNP (normalised to their 2004 value). With a correlation of 97,8%, the country electricity consumption follows the number of urban inhabitants and the country global enrichment. MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 5 / 6

Milliers

ELECTRICITE & INDICES MACRO-ECONOMIQUES

16 GWh

Electricité

12 GWh

8 GWh

y = 17877x 4 GWh

0 GWh 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Urb. (p/r 2004) x PIB cst (p/r 2004)

-

Global energy consumption (in thousands of tep) on the product “B” of relative urbanisation and constant GNP per capita (normalised to their 2004 value). With a correlation of 98,0%, the country energy consumption follows the number of urban inhabitants and, in this case, the individual enrichment. Milliers

ENERGIE & INDICES MACRO-ECONOMIQUES 12 ktep 10 ktep

Energie

8 ktep 6 ktep 4 ktep y = 11512x 2 ktep 0 ktep 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Urb. (p/r 2004) x PIB cst par hab (p/r à 2004)

To have another dynamic view of the same data, the graph here below shows the evolution of both electricity (average 5.88% yearly increase) and energy (average 4.29% yearly increase) consumptions normalised to their 2004 value together with the evolution of “A” and “B” products. The same plot over the last eight years only shows a slightly different evolution : - electricity, an average increase of 5.96% per year, - energy, an average increase of 4.16% per year, which both will be used later. CONSOMMATION D'ENERGIE & INDICES MACRO-ECONOMIQUES Urb. (p/r 2004) x PIB cst par hab (p/r à 2004) Energie (p/r à 2004)

Urb. (p/r 2004) x PIB cst (p/r 2004) Electricité (p/r à 2004)

100,0%

4,29% 90,0% 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0%

5,88% 40,0% 30,0%

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

20,0% 2004

From the three graphs here above, it could be concluded that at least two very similar forecast models can be used for the consumption of electricity and energy in Morocco : - the first one based on assumptions for population urbanisation and income, - the second one simply based on future extrapolations of past consumption evolutions. The table in Annex shows the results of both models : - electricity consumption : MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 6 / 7

-

o globally, from 17’995 GWh on 2004 to between 30’216 and 32’104 GWh on 2014, o per capita, from 602 kWh on 2004 to between 894 and 949 kWh on 2014, energy consumption : o globally, from 11’546 ktep on 2004 to between 17’139 and 17’356 ktep on 2014, o per capita, from 0.386 tep on 2004 to between 0.507 and 0.513 tep on 2014.

2.1.2. Decomposition of country energy consumption The graph here below shows the history and a forecast of different energy uses. On 2004, the energy consumption can be roughly divided in three thirds : - one third for electricity. - one third for terrestrial transport fuels. - one third for o butane, o other thermal energy, o airplane fuels. This distribution should change if the forecasts based on present trends continue. Even if brought to per capita, it is clear that the exponential growth is in the electricity (4,77%) and butane components (3,78%). Consommation finale d'énergie par habitant Electricité (tep/hab)

Carburants terrestres (tep/hab)

Autres thermiques (tep/hab)

Carburants aériens (tep/hab)

4,77%

0,200

Butane (tep/hab)

1,2% 0,100

1,25%

0,000 1998

-

-

-

3,78%

0,050

2000

2002

2004

2006

0,13%

tep / habitant

0,150

2008

2010

2012

2014

Electricity : 0.134 tep per inhabitant in 2004, should rise to 0.21 on 2014 at an average growth of 4.77%. It is true that the PERG, Programme d’Electrification Rurale Global, brought about 1’120’000 new consumers in the electric grid between 1996 and 2004, but the social impact of this program is from far more important than the power generation it includes since these rural households count for only around 700 GWh in 2004 (based on around 50 kWh / month per household), e.g. only 4.3% of the total electricity supplied by the national utility the same year (16’287 GWh). Terrestrial transport fuels (standard and unleaded super, normal, diesel) : 0.123 tep per inhabitant in 2004 should rise to 0.14 on 2014 at an average growth of 1,2%. It is surprisingly not the highest growth but it is true that the rate of equipment in individual cars is relatively low and the terrestrial vehicles consumption per unit started decreasing significantly after 1995 through a substantial reduction of the average age of the vehicles themselves. Butane : 0.0473 tep per inhabitant in 2004 should rise to 0.07 on 2014 at an average growth of 3,78%. Butane is essentially used for cooking because it is sold only in bottles since Morocco has no gas distribution network. The fast growth of butane is due to the urbanisation but also to the butane bottles distribution networks improvement with its corollary of wood-cooking progressive replacement by the rural MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 7 / 8

population. Due to its faster increase, butane should reach the following “other thermal energy uses” by 2014. - Other thermal energy : 0.0604 tep per inhabitant in 2004 should rise to 0.07 on 2014 at an average growth of 1,25%. - Airplane fuels, 0.0108 tep per inhabitant in 2004 which should rise to 0.015 on 2014 at an average growth of 0,13%. Its evolution is suspected to be affected strongly by the commercial policy, which will be adopted by Morocco in view of the next “open sky”. It is to note that the total of 0.515 tep per inhabitant in 2014 is still compatible with both the two other energy consumption forecast models (0.507 and 0.513 tep per inhabitant respectively). 2.1.3. Decomposition of ONE (national utility) electricity sales The graph here below shows the sales of Office National de l’Electricité (ONE, national utility) which can be divided in two : indirect and direct sales. It is to note that 29’060 GWh in 2014 with an average yearly growth of 5.96% are compatible with both other electricity consumption forecast models (30’216 and 32’104 GWh respectively). Destination de l'électricité vendue par l'Office national de l'Electricité Distributeurs (GWh) Exploitations agricoles (GWh) Adminstratif (GWh)

Industriels (GWh) Secteur tertiaire (GWh) Résidentiel (GWh)

12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2.1.3.1. ONE Direct sales per sector ONE Direct sales represented 8’303 GWh in 2004 which should reach 16’060 with an average yearly growth of 6.82% are sub-segmented as follows : o Industry, 3’908 GWh in 2004 should reach 6’400 GWh in 2014 with an average yearly growth of 5.06%, o Agriculture, 929 GWh in 2004 should reach 1’510 GWh in 2014 with an average yearly growth of 4.98%, o Tertiary, 880 GWh in 2004 should reach 1’800 GWh in 2014 with an average yearly growth of 7.42%, o Administration, 545 GWh in 2004 should reach 900 GWh in 2014 with an average yearly growth of 5.14%, o Residential, 2’041 GWh in 2004 should reach 5’450 GWh with an average yearly growth of 10.32%.

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 8 / 9

Ventes ONE d'électricité par secteur 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000

GWh

2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

3 013,0

3 038,0

3 161,0

3 322,0

3 578,7

3 908,0

Exploitations agricoles (GWh)

668,0

735,0

709,0

697,0

817,7

929,0

Secteur tertiaire (GWh)

614,0

662,0

706,0

753,0

820,6

880,0

Adminstratif (GWh)

417,0

450,0

450,0

475,0

504,1

545,0

Résidentiel (GWh)

1 241,0

1 381,0

1 517,0

1 666,0

1 846,3

2 041,0

Industriels (GWh)

2.1.3.2. ONE Indirect sales Indirect sales represent 7’984 GWh in 2004 which should reach 13’000 with an average yearly growth of 5.00% Indirect sales are delivered to 3 private and 8 community distributors (“Régies Autonomes”) as follows : Distributor LYDEC REDAL AMENDIS RADEEMA RADEEF RADEEM RAK RADEEJ RADEEL RADEES ALL

City Casablanca Rabat Tanger & Tétouan Marrakech Fès Meknès Kenitra El Jadida Larache Safi

GWh 3’151 GWh 1’250 GWh 1’056 GWh 575 GWh 550 GWh 341 GWh 255 GWh 188 GWh 145 GWh 132 GWh 7 641 GWh

2003 Customers kWh/m.cust 672 466 390 357 480 291 368 788 239 168 954 284 150 167 305 110 235 258 66 662 319 53 425 293 51 296 236 47 733 230 2 047 206 311

2004 GWh 3’284 GWh 1’305 GWh 1’065 GWh 630 GWh 577 GWh 361 GWh 273 GWh 200 GWh 154 GWh 134 GWh 7’984 GWh

Data here above are given as available and are not missing only track record, but also some additional segmentation, at least like the one provided by ONE (Industry, Agriculture, Tertiary, Administration, Residential). In comparison with the above distributors, ONE “average” customer through direct sales required 263 kWh/month on 2004. 2.2. Energy carriers, fuel mix, carbon emission and carbon emission factors 2.2.1. Important preliminary notes To avoid entering the controversy on combustion rates for each fossil fuel, 100% combustion is considered in all what follows. CO2 emissions can be obtained multiplying by 44/18 the carbon emissions (molar mass ratios). 2.2.2. Electricity source mix The graph and table here below show the evolution of the origin structure of the electricity consumed in Morocco. The graph shows that, obviously, Morocco produced in 2004 about two thirds of its electricity from coal and the table shows how most of its electricity consumption increase was covered by coal also.

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 9 / 10

Structure de l'origine de l'électricité consommée 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

0

0

64

206

194

203

199

1 759

817

705

862

842

1 441

1 600

dont importée (GWh)

716

1 846

2 363

1 564

1 392

1 437

1 535

dont au pétrole (GWh)

2 580

3 601

2 243

1 072

1 549

1 935

1 939

dont au charbon (GWh)

7 398

7 001

8 567

11 145

11 517

11 722

12 520

0

0

0

0

0

0

126

dont Eolienne (GWh) dont Hydraulique (GWh)

dont au Gaz (GWh)

2004

2.2.3. Global energy fuel mix (electricity included) The UNSTAT Database provides the energy content (in J/kg) for solid, liquid and gas fuels : - specific (for fossil fuels producing countries), - generic values. We have taken these lasts since Morocco has no petrol and uses no more its own coal mines. The graph and table here below show the evolution of the fuel mix in Morocco. In 2004, fuel consumption was roughly divided in three thirds represented by : - coal (of which about 80% are used for electricity), - transports fuels represented by the “white petroleum products” like gasoline, plane fuel and diesel, among which this last counts for about 80%, - LPG’s (butane 91% in 2004 and propane 9% in 2004) and fuel oil at almost equal share. Structure de l'origine de l'énergie consommée 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1 416

1 645

1 913

1 913

2 410

1 645

1 645

Charbon (TJ)

100 847

104 892

114 681

145 629

152 048

156 503

169 134

Fuel-oil (TJ)

70 425

81 713

60 216

49 219

56 190

60 755

63 079

Gaz liquéfiés (TJ)

47 764

50 581

51 488

54 230

57 473

61 115

64 439

Carburants blancs (TJ)

142 519

151 461

151 153

157 133

159 300

163 184

167 808

Gaz naturel (TJ)

Because of the increase coal-based electricity over the last decade, the relative dependence on petrol white products was slightly reduced in favour of coal while the relative share of fuel-oil and LPG’s remained almost constant. 2.2.4. Carbon emissions 2.2.4.1. Total emission numbers The table below shows the total carbon emissions of the country in gigagrams (thousands of metric tons). These numbers are given for record since their analysis without taking into considerations the country development constraints are useless. MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 10 / 11

Carbon emissions Total (Gg) Electricity only (Gg) Non-electricity only (Gg)

1998 7 526 2 839 4 687

1999 8 067 2 871 5 196

2000 7 936 3 006 4 930

2001 8 716 3 503 5 213

2002 9 122 3 703 5 419

2003 9 449 3 846 5 602

2004 9 972 4 216 5 756

2.2.4.2. Electricity carbon emissions Because of the important contribution of coal-based electricity over the last decade, the relative emissions due the use of coal, shown on the graph below, are around 90%. This is higher than the coal electricity production itself (82%) because of its higher emission coefficient. Structure des émissions de carbone de l'électricité 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

0

0

0

0

0

0

25

dont pétrole (Gg)

552

770

479

229

331

415

450

dont charbon (Gg)

2 287

2 101

2 527

3 274

3 372

3 431

3 741

dont Gaz (Gg)

2004

The table below the graph shows that global carbon emissions due to electricity production reach 4216 thousand metric tons, increasing over the period at an average yearly rate of 6,8%, significantly faster than the electric production (about 5.9%) due to the more intensive use of carbon-based electricity, economically more attractive for a country like Morocco.

2.2.4.3. Global energy carbon emissions (electricity included) As shown in the graph below, the “three thirds” share in energy consumption (carbon, terrestrial vehicle fuels and rest) is not in the same shares in terms of emissions because the higher emission coefficient for carbon. Structure des émissions de carbone de l'énergie consommée 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

23

26

31

31

39

26

26

Charbon (Gg)

2 701

2 810

3 072

3 901

4 073

4 192

4 530

Fuel-oil (Gg)

1 332

1 545

1 139

931

1 062

1 149

1 193

769

815

829

873

925

984

1 038

2 702

2 872

2 866

2 981

3 022

3 097

3 185

Gaz naturel (Gg)

Gaz liquéfiés (Gg) Carburants blancs (Gg)

2004

The table below the graph shows that global carbon emissions due to energy consumption reach 9972 thousand metric tons, increasing over the period at an average yearly rate of 4,8%, slightly faster than the energy production (about 4.3%), still due to the more intensive use of carbon-based electricity part of the global energy.

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 11 / 12

No forecasts of carbon emission are presented here since they are substantially dependent on the availability of detailed information about the future composition of the mixture of electric energy sources which includes more imports and low carbon emission technologies, specially when it refers to the wind component : - the Morocco-Europe interconnection through the Gibraltar straight has doubled its power capacity to 1500 MW during the last weeks of 2005, - hydroelectric plants which will be operational in the next ten years are already under construction or in advanced development, they are therefore clearly identified for evident duration of the implementation, - a hybrid natural gas-thermosolar plant should be operational on 2008, in the eastern part of the country near the Transmaghrebian natural gas pipe (Algeria-Spain through Morocco), - the wind electricity component is presently foreseen towards increase, with a combination of utility-owned wind plants, but also IPP schemes under the next liberalisation law. However, we explain 6300 and 6420 Gg 196 and 212 g/kWh

2.2.5. Carbon emission factors The table here below shows the evolution of global carbon emission factors and some of its segments : they are expressed in g/MJ for energy-related and in g/kWh for electricity-related factors. Carbon emission coefficients 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Energy mix (g/MJ) 20,62 20,55 20,77 21,24 21,24 21,20 21,27 Petroleum combustibles mix (g/MJ) 18,42 18,44 18,39 18,36 18,36 18,35 18,34 Electricity mix (g/kWh) 242 251 260 264 263 251 257 Over the period of the table, the carbon emission coefficients changed yearly : - +0,63% for the energy mix, - almost stable for most of the petroleum combustibles mix, - +0,69% for the electricity mix. We explain here below why the electricity carbon emissions factors should go down and stand between 196 and 212 g/kWh by 2014 stabilising then the energy mix carbon emission factor at a lower value than present. 2.2.6. Specific carbon emissions The table here below reminds the evolution of population and GNP (expressed in 2004 Dh) and shows also energy and electricity specific carbon emissions. Country specific emissions 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Population (M.inhab) 27,521 27,899 28,283 28,675 29,073 29,479 29,892 Energy emission (kg/capita) 273 289 281 304 314 321 334 Electricity emission (kg/capita) 103 103 106 122 127 130 141 Non-electricity emission (kg/capita) 170 186 174 182 186 190 193 GNP (GDh 2004) 360,29 373,99 388,95 390,83 403,36 425,44 443,70 Energy emission (g/Dh GNP) 20,89 21,57 20,40 22,30 22,61 22,21 22,47 Electricity emission (g/Dh GNP) 7,88 7,68 7,73 8,96 9,18 9,04 9,50 Non-electricity emission (kg/Dh GNP) 13,01 13,89 12,67 13,34 13,43 13,17 12,97 Even if the better individual access to energy services caused a 3.31% increase of the global emissions per capita : - +5,67% yearly average change for electricity, - +1,75% yearly average change for non-electric components, the capacity of the country to generate less carbon emissions for a given revenue (inverse of the numbers given in g/Dh) decreased slowly (-1,36%) with a dominant impact of its electricity component to the (-3,78%) and an irrelevant contribution of the rest. From this point of view, it is expected that the future use, described above, of imports and of low carbon emission technologies for electricity power generation (renewable and natural gas) contributes to stabilise this specific electricity carbon emission to between 10.1 and 10.3 g/Dh by 2014. This should bring : - the carbon emissions due to electricity production to between 6300 and 6420 Gg (on the basis of a GNP around 623 GDh 2004 on year 2014), MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 12 / 13

the electricity emission factor (g/kWh) to between 200 and 215 g/kWh (on the basis of between 32’000 and 32’000 GWh on 2014) instead of around 250 presently. 2.3. Market penetration and growth rate of relevant energy products (solar systems, air-conditioners etc). 2.3.1. Market penetration and growth rate of air-conditioners Presently, there are no available numbers to present such a market survey. Only recent imports in kilograms and CIF values could be deliverable but they are useless without additional information. 2.3.2. Market penetration and growth rate of solar thermal systems The graph below shows the evolution of solar thermal installations market between 1990 and 2004. The annual demand has changed from about 2’000 m² per year early in 1990’s to more than 16’000 in 2004. The market growth shows some erratic fluctuations but seems to increase linearly (an not exponentially) at a rate of 900 additional m² per year. -

Marché annuel des chauffe-eau solaires m² / an (3)

Simulation croissance 900m²/an

18 000

m² installés par an

16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

0

The graph below shows the evolution of the cumulative solar thermal installations from 1990 to 2004. Cumulative solar thermal surfaces have reached 100’000 units in 2004. The graph shows the simulation of the cumulative installed surface with the 900 additional m² per year The individual houses occupied by their owners having an electric water heater reach 500’000. If we consider that, today, this is the main market for solar heaters, only about 10% of the target is equipped (on the basis of 2m² per house).

Milliers

Surface totale installée (m²)

Cumul m²

Simulation croissance 900m²/an

100 80 60 40 20

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

0

2.4. Description of the energy sector : players, privatisation and liberalisation issues 2.4.1. Electricity distributors MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 13 / 14

Electricity Distributor LYDEC REDAL AMENDIS RADEEMA RADEEF RADEEM RAK RADEEJ RADEEL RADEES ONE, national utility

Status Private Private Private Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Municipal Public

Operations city / zone Casablanca Rabat Tanger & Tétouan Marrakech Fès Meknès Kenitra El Jadida Larache Safi Rest of Morocco

2.4.2. Electricity power producers 2.4.2.1. Office National de l’Electrcité (ONE) Status : state-owned utility. Has several production sites among which all the hydroelectric plants Mohammedia and Kenitra thermal plants among others on top of a small pilot 2 MW wind farm in Koudia El Baïda. Intensive details about ONE production is given above. 2.4.2.2. Jorf Lasfar (JLEC) Status : private. Acts in Jorf Lasfar, near the chemistry phosphates complex at about 250 km south of Casablanca. JLEC uses coal and sells electricity to ONE. JLEC is the biggest energy provider to ONE. 2.4.2.3. Compagnie éolienne du Détroit (CED) Status : private. Acts in Koudia El Baïda, in the north in front of the straight of Gibraltar. CED operates a 50 MW wind farm and sells electricity to ONE with a purchase obligation. 2.4.2.4. Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) Status : state-owned phosphates mining and chemistry company. When available, OCP injects in the national grid electricity generated in sulphur / phosphorus plants situated in Jorf Lasfar (near JLEC). OCP sells and buys electricity from ONE. 2.4.2.5. Ciments Lafarge (CL) Status : private cement industry company. When available, CL injects in the national grid electricity generated by a 10 MW wind farm situated near its factory in Tetouan, in the north of the country. CL sells and buys electricity from ONE. 2.4.3. Liberalisation issues 2.4.3.1. Electricity distribution Even if the decision still needs the approval of the Ministry of Interior, the 1996 decentralisation law has confirmed and extended the power of decision of the local elected authorities (Municipal or Rural Councils) in terms of electricity and water distribution, solid and liquid waste management. In fact, eleven cities had already a municipal electricity distribution company (all of them called “Régie Autonome de Distribution”). Among these, four have delegated the electricity distribution activity to the private sector, in all of them with a combination of water distribution and liquid wastes management. As shown in the tables above non-ONE distribution represents about half of electricity sales. 2.4.3.2. Production As shown here above, private electricity production has started in Morocco but still the ONE monopoly is active and all the cases above are based on contracts with ONE (“Built Operate Transfer” or “Built Transfer Operate” schemes). A liberalisation law of the electricity sector has been prepared early in the 2000’s but it has been amended after the lessons learned from the electricity crashes in California and New York (see details in www.one.org.ma) with : - the continuation of a public electricity service to insure service continuity, - a separation of ONE production, transport and distribution activities, - new doors opened for the private sector, o without purchase obligation, o with the possibility to have local customers, o with the possibility to inject electricity through the grid interconnection with Europe (interesting development prospective for wind farms). MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 14 / 15

3. Building & energy in building 3.1. Detailed description of the household and utility building sectors: building stock: classification per building type (by age, size, average energy consumption and type, construction method). 3.1.1. Global building stock and segmentation by type The Moroccan authorities use to segment the urban buildings in three types : - High rise buildings with more than 3 floors (“immeubles”) composed of apartments. - Villas are individual isolated structures with a garden and less than 3 floors. - Moroccan type buildings (“habitations type marocain”) themselves divided in two : o The traditional Moroccan type is located mainly in the historical areas of big cities. For this reason, its stock (around 200’00 thousand units) does not change significantly anymore and is composed of an internal yard surrounded by the rooms. o The modern Moroccan type represents the major component of the buildings. It is an individual structure with less than 3 floors which cannot be classified among the others above. The graph here below shows the evolution of the urban building stock (in thousands), industrial excluded. Parc constructions urbaines

2 000

dont Villa (*)

1,51%

2 500

dont Immeubles (*)

1,57%

2 507

dont Habitations type marocain (*)

1 828

Milliers d'unités

Parc constructions (*)

1 500

91 104

5,99%

500

2,39%

1 000

0 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

The more recent official building investigation was done on year 2000. For each year, the stock has been calculated by subtracting (before 2000) or adding (after 2000) the yearly new building licences to the year 2000 numbers of existing buildings (reference numbers shown in the graph). To consider the delay between building licences and finishing, the yearly new building licences by type were shifted forward by two years. In 2004, the total buildings stock is estimated to 2’664’033 units decomposed as follows : - High rise buildings, 114’813 units. - Villas, 113’807 units. - Moroccan type buildings, 1’937’685 units. - Inappropriate buildings, 278’787 units. - Other, 218’942 units. In terms of evolution rate, the global stock increases by 1,57% yearly but in a different manner for the different types. Below will be shown why this increase is slower than the urban population in the last decade (2.07% yearly) : - High buildings stock increases at a medium rate by about 5.99% yearly. - Villas stock is the fastest increasing type by about 2.39% yearly. - Moroccan type buildings stock increases at 1.51% yearly, slower than other types. MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 15 / 16

The faster growing rate for the two firsts (high buildings and villas) is, in the medium term, not sufficient to overcome the domination of the Moroccan type buildings, which share did not change significantly, as shown in the graphic below. Structure du parc de constructions urbaines salubres au Maroc (industrielles exclues)dont Immeubles (*) dont Villa (*) dont Habitations type marocain (*) 100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

3.1.2. Building stock and its segmentation by use The table here below shows the segmentation by use of the urban buildings for the year 2000. Year 2000 Global building stock Among which living buildings Among which professional buildings Among which both uses Among which other uses

100.00% 80.77% 3.71% 13.18% 2.34%

2 507 441 2 025 215 92 998 330 430 58 798

On 2004, the global urban building stock should have reached 2’664’033 units but there was no official investigation of the new use. 3.1.3. Global lodgings stock As done here above, the evolution with time is calculated by subtracting (before 2000) or adding (after 2000) the yearly new building licences to the year 2000 inquests results shown in the graph of existing loggings (expressed in lodgings). To consider the delay between building licences and finishing, the yearly new building licences by type were shifted forward by two years. The graph here below shows the evolution of the lodging stock (in thousands), regardless to their use (living, professional or mix quarters). Parc logements urbains dont Habitations type marocain (*)

dont Appartements d'immeubles (*)

3 000

dont Villas (*)

2,15%

1,58%

4 024

4 000

2 925

2,76%

583

1 000

6,06%

2 000

125

Milliers d'unités

Parc logements (*)

5 000

0 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 16 / 17

In 2004, the total lodgings stock is estimated to 4’023’725 units decomposed as follows : - Apartments in high rise buildings, 723’875 units. - Villas, 138’221 units. - Moroccan type lodgings, 3’105’568 units. - Inappropriate lodgings, 390’301 units. In terms of evolution rate, the number of lodgings stock increases by 2,15% yearly : - The fact that the number of lodgings increases (2.15%) just a bit faster than the urban population (2.07%) does not necessarily mean that the stock of empty lodgings increases but also that the family density per lodging decreases. This is confirmed by two separate numbers : o 2.94% increase (1994-2000) of buildings dedicated to accommodation, o the average number of families per household decreased from 1.13 in year 1984 to 1.08 in year 2000. - The fact that the number of the lodgings increases (2.15%) faster than the buildings (1.57%) is a sign of buildings densification in terms of lodgings per building as shown in the graph here below. Nombre de logements par construction 1,66

0,63%

1,64

1,62

1,60

1,58

1,56

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

3.2. Detailed description of the construction sector: what developments are the drivers for construction, the major players, building volume per year, growth rates, innovation, compliance with regulations, challenges and problems, etc. 3.2.1. Construction volume per year, growth rates The graph here below shows the construction market volume, expressed in m² per year. Globally between 450 and 600’000 m², the average share of : - the Moroccan type building stays dominant but only at 48.5%, - the apartments in high buildings stand at 22.8%, - the Commercial and Industrial take the third position at 14.9%, - the Villas surface represent 9.3%, - the rest is split between Administration (2.5%) and other (2.0%). During the latest years, the total market showed an average increase trend of 3.41%, slightly higher than the urban population growth (2.07%), not meaning that living quarters are bigger in average but only that part of the urban population moves progressively from the inappropriate living quarters to safe and cleaner houses.

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 17 / 18

Marché de la construction 5 646 000 2 701 000 1 166 000 940 000 598 000 80 000

161 000

287 000 148 000

6 050 000 2 618 000 1 379 000 969 000 649 000

84 000 114 000

5 148 000 2 405 000 1 165 000 864 000 516 000

370 000

4 763 000 2 228 000 1 181 000 774 000 104 000 106 000

71 000 107 000

101 000 93 000

dont Commerciales & industrielles

110 000 122 000

4 619 000 2 373 000 950 000 727 000 391 000

4 556 000 2 339 000 1 083 000

81 000 67 000

50 000

100 000

516 000 424 000

970 000 597 000 415 000

115 000

1 000 000

521 000 356 000

10 000 000

4 782 000 2 391 000 1 004 000 739 000 416 000

dont Autres

4 442 000 2 312 000

dont Immeubles

dont Administratives

3,41%

dont Habitations type marocain

dont Villas 4 572 000 2 273 000 1 257 000

Surface autorisé décalée de 1 an

10 000 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

3.2.2. What are the drivers for construction ? The major drivers for construction is due to : - increase of urban population (+2.07% yearly during the last decade), - professional lodgings for this - change of house from inappropriate living quarters to better. During a given period, part of the rural exodus to cities transits through inappropriate living quarters in the cities suburbs, but even with the still continuing rural exodus, the net amount of these inappropriate living quarters is foreseen to decrease. The government has also launched a 200’000 cheap houses project, around 4’000 Dh per square meter, without direct subsidy but including : - for the customers, credit access facilities and VAT reduction, - for the building companies, access to cheap lands, corporate tax reductions and critical mass projects. 3.2.3. Who are the major players Of course, given the market numbers above 3.2.3.1. Etablissement Regional d’Aménagement et Construction (ERAC) Status : state-owned company. ERAC stands for Construction and Equipment Regional Institution. There are seven ERAC’s distributed all over the country but it is true that there activity is strongly varying from a Region to another, essentially depending on the existence of state-owned lands around the major city of the Region. 3.2.3.2. Société Nationale d’Equipement et de Construction (SNEC) Status : state-owned company. Smaller than ERAC’s network, SNEC acts all over the country. 3.2.3.3. Compagnie Générale Immobilière (CGI) Status : state-owned company. CGI is also a public building company. CGI specializes in medium and high class building. 3.2.3.4. Chaabi Liliskane (CL) Status : private company. CL is an affiliate of the Chaabi Groupe (Ynna Holding) and acts successfully in Essaouira, Casablanca and Marrakech. 3.2.3.5. Biladi (BG) Status : private company. Biladi is an independent building company who started growing in Casablanca with the 200’000 houses programme and is spreading now over other cities. 3.3. Energy consumption ratios (consumption per square meter in private, commercial / industrial and hotels, etc...) in total and subdivided for cooling, lighting, household appliances / office equipment, heating and for end energy carrier (electricity, gas, etc...) Serious statistics, which are not available for Morocco, are still needed to evaluate this : MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 18 / 19

-

segmentation of local electricity distributor sales, field study on electricity and energy use in offices, commerce, administrations, hotels, industry and residential.

3.4. Potential Energy conservation in buildings Among the possibilities for energy conservation in buildings, we will distinguish two items : - those which obviously should not include any other subsidy than some public money for long term (couple of years) promotion campaigns : o lighting : explain how and why the new prices of fluorescent lighting are today cost effective, o domestic solar water heating : explain how and why domestic solar water heating in individual houses using electricity heaters is cost effective, - those which need regulation : o domestic solar water heating : impose a couple of water pipes (hot and cold) on the roof of individual houses before getting the living licence, o energy saving in construction : materials : set up a building energy efficiency code, orientation : urbanism laws for appropriate streets orientation wherever it is possible.

4. Political framework conditions 4.1. Existing laws and regulations. 4.1.1. Environment protection laws Web : http://www.cgem.ma/_article.php?id_article=22 • Dahir n° 1-03-59 du 10 rabii I 1424 (12 mai 2003) portant promulgation de la loi n° 11-03 relative à la protection et à la mise en valeur de l’environnement • Dahir n° 1-03-60 du 10 rabii I 1424 (12 mai 2003) portant promulgation de la loi n° 12-03 relative aux études d’impact sur l’environnement • Dahir n° 1-03-61 du 10 rabii I 1424 (12 mai 2003) portant promulgation de la loi n° 13-03 relative à la lutte contre la pollution de l’air • Dahir n° 1-01-333 du 19 moharrem 1423 (3 avril 2002) portant publication du Protocole de Kyoto à la Convention - cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques, fait à Kyoto le 11 décembre 1997 4.1.2. General building Web : http://www.mhu.gov.ma • Arrêté viziriel du 9 mars 1953 (22 joumada II 1372) portant réglementation de la hauteur sous plafond des locaux à usage d’habitation • Dahir n°1-60-063 du 30 hija 1379 (25 juin 1960) relative au développement des agglomérations rurales • Décret n°2-64-445 du 21 chaabane 1384 (26 décembre 1964) définissant les zones d’habitat économique et approuvant le règlement général de construction applicable à ces zones • Dahir n°1-92-31 portant promulgation de la loi n°12-90 relatif à l'urbanisme • Décret n°2-92-832 pris pour l'application de la loi n°12-90 4.1.3. Energy efficiency and use of renewable energy in building Web : http://cder.leguide.ma/docu.cfm • Normes et spécifications techniques des chauffe-eau solaires • Charte de Garantie des Résultats Solaires des installations solaires thermiques 4.2. Laws and regulations in preparation 4.2.1. General building Web : http://www.mhu.gov.ma • Projet de Loi N° 04-04 modifiant la loi n°12-90 • Projet de Règlement Général de Construction Web : http://www.codeurbanisme.gov.ma/default.htm MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 19 / 20

4.2.2. Energy efficiency and use of renewable energy in buildings Web : http://cder.leguide.ma/docu.cfm and http://www.cder.org.ma/ • Code d’efficacité énergétique • Réglementation thermique de l’habitat 4.3. Are construction laws and regulations enforced and what are the sanctions? In terms of general building regulations, the laws are enforced and have been still more after the Al Houceima earthquake on 2002, but in terms of energy efficiency, there is still not any law, neither regulation.

5. Institutional setting 5.1. Energy, building and environment responsible Ministries and promotion agencies 5.1.1. Ministère chargé du Logement et de l'Urbanisme Contact : Ali GUEDIRA Address : Direction Technique du Ministère chargé du Logement et de l'Urbanisme, Rues Al Jouaze & Al Joumaize Hay Ryad Secteur 16 Rabat 10.000 Telephone : +212 37 57 70 00 Fax : +212 37 57 73 73 or 72 22 or 72 44 E-mail : [email protected] Web : http://www.mhu.gov.ma 5.1.2. Centre de Développement des Energies Renouvelables Contact : Mrs Amal HADDOUCHE Address : Av, El Machaar El Haram - BP. 509 - Issil Marrakech Telephone : +212 44 30 98 14 or 22 Fax : +212 44 30 97 95 E-mail : [email protected] Web : http://www.cder.org.ma/ 5.1.3. Office National de l’Electricité Contact : Mr. Ahmed RAHMOUNI Address : Direction Commerciale et Marketing, 65, Rue Othman Ben Affan - 20000 Casablanca Telephone : +212 022 66 82 98 Fax : E-mail : http://www.one.org.ma/interne.asp?esp=3&id1=12&t1=1 Web : http://www.one.org.ma/ 5.1.4. Ministère de l’Energie et des Mines Contact : Telephone : Address : Fax : Web : http://www.mem.gov.ma 5.1.5. Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Environnement Contact : Mr. Brahim ZYANI Address : Direction Réglementation et Contrôle, Angle Avenue Oqba et rue Oum R’bii Telephone : +212 37 68 25 73 Fax : +212 37 66 14 88 Web : http://www.minenv.gov.ma/ 5.2. Industry associations, NGOs and important civil society actors 5.2.1. FNBTP, Fédération Nationale du Bâtiment et Travaux Publics Contact : Mr. Bouchaïb BENHAMIDA, President Address : Angle Avenue des FAR et Rue Arrachid – 20000 - Casablanca Telephone : +212 22 25 26 96 to 99 Fax: +212 22 25 38 39 Web : http://www.cgem.ma MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 20 / 21

5.2.2. AMGE, Association Marocaine des Gestionnaires de l’Energie Contact : Mr. Naïm LAHLOU Address : Citech Ing. - Rte Azemmour Résidence Sofia N°18 - 20000 - Casablanca - Maroc Telephone : +212 22 39 17 55 Fax: +212 22 39 44 37 Web : http://www.amge.ma/ 5.2.3. CGEM, Confédération Générale de l’Entreprise Marocaine Contact : Mr. Majid BOUTALEB, President of Enterprise Sustainable Development Commission Address : Angle avenue des FAR et rue Mohamed Errachid - 20000 - Casablanca - Maroc Telephone : +212 25 26 96 to 99 Fax: +212 25 38 39 Web : http://www.cgem.ma / 5.2.4. FENELEC, Fédération Nationale du Secteur de l’Electricité Contact : Mr. GUERMAI, Manager at FENELEC Address : Résidence Mervet, 4 rue de la Bastille - 20000 - Casablanca - Maroc Telephone : +212 22 94 51 29 Fax: +212 22 94 96 42 Web : http://www.fenelec.com/ 5.2.5. AMISOLE, Association Marocaine des Industries Solaires et Eoliennes Contact : Mr. Saïd MOULINE, President Address : c/o Fenelec, Résidence Mervet, 4 rue de la Bastille - 20000 - Casablanca - Maroc Téléphone : +212 22 94 51 29 Fax: : +212 22 94 96 42 Email : [email protected] 5.2.6. CMPP, Centre Marocain de Production Propre Contact : Address : 23, Boulevard Mohamed Abdouh Palmiers, 20100, Casablanca. Telephone : +212 22 25 05 47 or 08 71 or 11 61 Fax : +212 22 23 04 66 Web : http://www.cmpp.ma/ 5.3. Promotion programmes 5.3.1. PROMASOL, Programme Marocain de promotion des chauffe-eau solaires Contact : Mr. Mohamed BERDAI, Program Manager Address : CDER - Département de l'énergie et des mines - BP. 6208 - Agdal - Rabat Telephone : +212 37 68 39 87 Fax : +212 37 68 39 86 E-mail : [email protected] Web : http://www.cder-gp.ma Global Environment Fund has put 3M$ at the disposal of UNDP to set up this project in Morocco. PROMASOL merges other financing sources (UNDP/TRAC, MOR/97/004, ONE, Andalusia Government, and other minors) and intends multiple activities : - 1000 private customers and public could buy a 150 litres domestic solar water heaters supplied by three different manufacturers (400, 400 and 200 units). End user purchase price was fixed at 5’000 Dh (458 €), excluding the VAT payment and imposing an additional payment of 1’200 Dh (110 €) for the installation. This allowed the installation of 2’000 m². - Solar hot water collective plants for use in schools, hospitals and other collective uses (definition and marketing presently in progress). - Reinforcement of the CDER test facilities, quality system and certification capabilities. Extension of the CDER installation training capacities. - Promotional campaigns (essentially focusing on CDER-certified solar water heaters). It is expected that PROMASOL reaches 100’000 m² but actual project progresses are not for access public. 5.3.2. PROSOL Maroc, Programme Chauffe-eau solaires Maroc Contact : Mrs. Myriem TOUHAMI, Program Manager MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 21 / 22

Address : UNEP Energy Branch, Tour Mirabeau, 39 - 43 Quai André Citroën, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Telephone : 33 1 44 37 14 74 Fax : 33 1 44 37 14 29 E-mail : [email protected] Web : http://www.unep.org Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has put 1M$ at the disposal of UNEP to set up this project in Morocco. A similar one exists in Tunisia. On top of the technical assistance costs to the project (paid by UNEP), PROSOL intends to put 1 M$ to be used to subsidise interest rates to finance collective solar water heaters for hotels (credit or leasing options) in Marrakech, Ouarzazate and Agadir Provinces. ONE has agreed to cut the electricity to the hotels who would not pay their monthly leasing or credit fee. It is expected that PROSOL reaches 10’000 m². 5.4. Data bases available 5.4.1. Ministère chargé du Logement et de l'Urbanisme Housing structure and costs. Evolution of rents. Evolution of building materials costs. Data is available from 1998 to 2002 on line under pdf form Web : http://www.mhu.gov.ma 5.4.2. Ministère du Plan This Ministry is in charge of medium and long term planning. It is the key institution to get macroeconomic information about Morocco. Web : http://www.statistic-hcp.ma/ 5.4.3. Rapport Annuel de la Bank Al-Maghrib Moroccan Central Bank does a yearly report on most of Moroccan Economy key numbers. Data available on paper, 2002 to 2004 reports are available on line under pdf form Web : http://www.bkam.ma/Francais/Menu/Anex.asp 5.4.4. Centre Marocain de Conjoncture NGO which does regular thematic studies on different sectors of the Moroccan Economy. Web : http://www.lecmc.ma/ Address : Espace porte d'Anfa, 3, rue Bab El Mansour N°9 , Casablanca 20050 - MAROC Telephone : +212.22 39 50 72 to 75 Fax : +212.22 39 50 61 E-mail : [email protected] 5.4.5. Le Maroc en Chiffres BMCE Bank does a very popular yearly report on most of Moroccan Economy key numbers. 1985 to 2003 data available on paper, 2004 available on line under htm form Web : http://www.statistic-hcp.ma/mc.html 5.4.6. Rapport Annuel de l’Office des Changes This institution is in charge following all the foreign currency transactions and provides extensive numbers of foreign trade (imports and exports). Data available on paper, latest year report (2004) is available on CD, 1998 to 2003 available on line under htm form. Web : http://www.oc.gov.ma 5.4.7. Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Environnement Environmental and sustainable development database. Available on line with restrictive use Web : http://www.minenv.gov.ma/ 5.4.8. Office National de l’Electricité National utility key numbers available in the yearly report. Available on paper before 2001, on pdf format since 2002. Web : http://www.one.org.ma/ 5.4.9. Banque de données des équipements utilisant l'énergie solaire. Databank relative to solar energy equipment. Available on paper. Web : http://cder.leguide.ma/docu.cfm MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 22 / 23

5.5. Other donors active in the sector 5.5.1. GEF Web : http://www.gefweb.org 5.5.2. UNEP & Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Web : http://www.unep.org 5.5.3. UNDP Web : http://www.undp.org

6. Economic and fiscal framework conditions 6.1. Energy prices, tariff structure Unless indicated, figures are in Dh. to convert it in €, Dec 2005 FOREX rate is used (10.92 Dh/€). 6.1.1. Electricity 6.1.1.1. Office National de l’Electricité Web : http://www.one.org.ma The graph here below shows the evolution of different ONE electricity prices, expressed in current Dh per kWh, VAT excluded (12% additional on 2006) : EVOLUTION DU TARIF ELECTRICITE ONE 1,05

1,018 1,00

MT

BT

HT

Social

0,95

Prix en Dh HT / kWH

0,932 0,90

0,864

0,85

0,80

0,817 0,787

0,75

0,739 0,699

0,70

0,65

0,610

0,60

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

It shows how, in 2004, the tariff varies from 0.610 Dh (0.558 €) for high voltage (THT) industrial electricity to 0.864 Dh (0.791 €) for 220 Vac subscriptions (BT). Special fares 0.739 Dh (0.677 €) are reserved to “Social” subscriptions like city suburbs and rural electrification. With the recent petrol shock, it is highly possible that electricity prices increase significantly during 2005-2006. 6.1.1.2. Régies Autonomes de Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricité (RADEEMA, RADEEF, RADEEM, RAK, RADEEJ, RADEEL, RADEES) Most of “Régies” have the same tariff structure. For low voltage 220/380 Vac subscriptions, the prices VAT excluded (12% additional on 2006) are listed in the table below : Range Sep 2005 0-100 kWh/month 0.842Dh 0,0771€ 101-200 kWh/month 0.906Dh 0,0829€ 201-500 kWh/month 0.986Dh 0,0903€ Above 500 kWh/month 1.347Dh 0,1233€ 6.1.1.3. Lydec (acting in Casablanca) For low voltage 220/380 Vac subscriptions, the Lydec prices VAT excluded (12% additional on 2006), are listed in the table below : Range Jan 2006 0-100 kWh/month 0.794Dh 0,0727€ 101-200 kWh/month 0.862Dh 0,0789€ 201-500 kWh/month 0.938Dh 0,0859€ Above 500 kWh/month 1.282Dh 0,1174€ Industrial and agriculture : - low voltage Industrial and agriculture subscriptions, invoiced as follows : MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 23 / 24

Range Jan 2006 0-100 kWh/month 1.211Dh 0.1109€ 101-500 kWh/month 1.272Dh 0.1165€ Above 500 kWh/month 1.454Dh 0.1332€ - medium voltage Industrial and agriculture subscriptions have two options : o two time segments : Hours Jan 2006 22h-07h (winter) or 23h-07h (summer) 0.624Dh 0.0571€ 07h-22h (winter) or 07h-23h (summer) 0.932Dh 0.0853€ Power tax per kVA 325.40Dh 29.8260€ o three time segments : Hours Jan 2006 22h-07h (winter) or 23h-07h (summer) 0.454Dh 0.0416€ 07h-17h (winter) or 07h-18h (summer) 0.676Dh 0.0619€ 17h-22h (winter) or 18h-23h (summer) 0.994Dh 0.0910€ Power tax per kVA 325.40Dh 29.8260€ 6.1.1.4. Amendis (acting in Tetouan and Tangiers) No available public information. 6.1.1.5. Redal (acting in Rabat) No available public information. 6.1.2. Fuels 6.1.2.1. Fuels prices On February 2006, the Government has decided to come back partially to the combustibles price indexation system. The combustibles concerned are : super (500.000 tons in 2005), low sulphur diesel (150.000 tons in 2005) and industrial fuel (1,8 million tons). Normal diesel (3,5 million tons in 2005) will remain outside this indexation system until the barrel goes down to 5253 US$. The government pricing was done on the basis of 60 dollars per barrel and exchange rate at 9,20 Dh/US$. In the last 10 months, the government has changed the hydrocarbon prices three times (May, 16th 2005, August 7th 2005 and February 9th 2006) as shown in the following table. Unit and MWh prices below include “Interior Tax on Combustibles” (TIC) and the VAT rate indicated. Combustible

U

Super carburant Unleaded super Diesel Low-sulphur Diesel Fuel Butane Propane Coal (local variety)

Lit Lit Lit Lit kg kg kg kg

MJ / kg kg / U 44.9 44.9 42.5 42.5 41.5 45.5 46.3 23.8

0.755 0.755 0.845 0.845 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

previous Dh / U feb06 jan05 may05 aug05 Dh / U Dh / MWh € / MWh VAT 9.35 9.85 10.35 10.51 1 116.12 109.42 7% 9.35 9.85 10.35 10.51 1 116.12 109.42 7% 6.06 6.46 6.96 7.46 747.82 73.32 7% 7.20 7.70 8.20 9.34 936.28 91.79 7% 2.30 2.30 2.81 3.31 287.13 28.15 0% 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.75 296.70 29.09 0% 8.39 8.91 692.79 67.92 7% 2.22 2.22 335.80 32.92 20%

For liquid hydrocarbons, an average +0.11Dh transport premium per litre applies for sales outside Casablanca. 6.1.2.2. Macroeconomic impact of fuel prices The table below shows the macroeconomic effects of petrol prices on Moroccan economy. The last columns shows how erratic is the global impact, ranging from the favourable -1% on 2001 to the dramatic +54% on 2004.

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 24 / 25

Morocco & petroleum prices Impacts Volume Price FOREX 20% 35% 2% -5% 59% 8% 6% -13% 6% -12% 3% -2% -28% 14% -13% 32% 29% -7% 9% 42% -1%

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Total 57% 62% -1% -11% -27% 54% 50%

6.2. Energy trade balance The graph here below shows the energy trade dependence of Morocco. As been a country with no significant fossil fuel resources, the country is strongly dependent on imports. Dépendance énergétique Dépendance énergétique globale

Dépendance énergétique électricité

100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

The global energy dependence is very high and would have been almost constant without the substantial variations of electricity trade dependence : - the step after 1996 is due to the imports through the interconnection with Europe (8.5% of the electricity on 2004 with a peak at 17% on 2000), - the other fluctuations are imposed by the production of hydraulic electricity which is directly linked to rainfall and water reserves in dams (see below). Hydroélectricité & Réserves des barrages Hydraulique (GWh)

Reserves barrages (Mm3)

2 200

10 000

2 000

9 000

1 800

8 000

1 600

7 000

1 400 6 000 1 200 5 000

1 000

4 000

800

3 000

600

2 000

400 1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 25 / 26

The graph below illustrates this dependence of local resource hydraulic electricity on dam reserves in the last years. 6.3. Energy subsidies and incentives for renewable energy and energy conservation (such as soft loans, revolving funds, etc) 6.3.1. Butane Historically, bottles of butane up to 12 kg have been considered a necessity for low income families and taxes on butane are highly reduced. This tax reduction has also a positive impact to fight deforestation since butane is the major energy competitor against wood burning in rural remote areas. The subsidy including tax reduction is around 2.16 Dh/kg. 6.3.2. Renewable energy Presently, there are no established subsidies for renewable energy apart from specific programmes listed here below. 6.3.2.1. PERG Solaire This is the solar component of the Global Rural Electrification Programme (PERG). National utility (ONE) provides an approximate 50% subsidy on Solar Home Systems (50, 75 and 200Wp). 6.3.2.2. PROMASOL (see above) 1000 private customers could buy a 150 litres domestic solar water heaters supplied by three different manufacturers (400, 400 and 200 units). 6.3.2.3. PROSOL (see above) 1 M$ will be used to subsidise interest rates to finance collective solar water heaters for hotels. ONE has agreed to cut the electricity to the hotels who will not pay their monthly leasing or credit fee. 6.4. ESCOMS, relevant businesses, relevant energy products (solar water heaters, airconditioners etc) and services available and expected 6.4.1. Companies acting in the field of domestic solar water heaters As shown in the table below, about 12 different brands of domestic solar water heaters are represented in Morocco. Local products (MA) represent about one third of the market, the rest is imported. Most of the companies are in the Casablanca Region and there is only one in the eastern part of the country. Name (alphabetical) City Fax Brand Origin AFRISOL

Casablanca +212.22.259031

???

???

CLEAN ENERGIES

Casablanca +212.22.263176 TOTAL (PACIFIC SOLAR)

AUS

IMMOSOLAR

Casablanca +212.22.362477

EDWARDS

AUS

SOCOCHARBO

Casablanca +212.22.624692

SOLAHART

AUS

PHOTHERME

Marrakech

+212.44.335733

GIORDANO

FR

ELECMAR

Casablanca +212.22.990929

MEGASUN

GR

NOOR WEB

Marrakech

+212.44.310499

DIMAS

GR

SPOLYTEN

Oujda

+212.56.511607

OLYMPIC

GR

ATCOMA

Casablanca +212.22.343219

GIOCA

MA

CAPSOLAIR

Casablanca +212.22.265802

CAPSOLAIR

MA

TROPICAL POWER

MA

BATITHERM

TR

TROPICAL POWER BATITHERM

Rabat

+212.37.290237

Casablanca +212.22.253542

6.5. Energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies available (industry and consultants) Almost all technologies are available (manufactured or represented) in the country. MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 26 / 27

6.6. Relevant energy products and services available Non-significant fossil fuel resources. 6.7. Dissemination of energy efficiency and renewable energy in the construction sector Irrelevant in general, except a few percent penetration rate of solar water heating in individual housing.

7. Pilot projects, best practices and recommendations for energy efficiency in the construction sector 7.1. Pilot projects planned or in tender For what concerns pilot projects concerning solar water heaters, see chapter 5.3. For what concerns efficient lighting in public buildings, the Center for Developing Renewable Energies (CDER) has launched few tenders for a couple of hospitals and schools to replace incandescent bulbs by fluorescent tubes and compact tubes. This project included some energy saving measurements before and after the implementation. There is no evidence of existing pilot projects in materials for building or passive architecture. Few architects take care of building with “modernized” traditional materials (like cementstabilized earth bricks) but less for energy reasons than cultural, esthetic and commercial. 7.2. Best practices & Recommendations The nature of actions to be conducted are driven by the penetration rate : - There is a demand for walls building, but improving their performance needs qualityoriented actions without blocking the existing popular housing programs. - On the contrary, the solar water heaters penetration rate is low and it needs to anticipate market stimulation actions before any quality promotion campaign. Solar products have still no brand-identification. - For electric appliances like lights, fridges and air-conditioners, there is a need for the users to distinguish the products in terms of performance (efficiency). 1- Passive architecture : a. Influence on urbanism plans so that the houses can be built facing south. b. Create a national dynamism in favor of passive architecture. c. Segment building walls in terms of category and energy saving performance : i. Inventory of local building materials with sub-sector professionals. ii. Define 3 categories of walls built using the building materials above : 1. Isolated, 2. Inertial, 3. Combined isolated / inertial. iii. Define for each category 3 performance levels : 1. Economic level minimum performance, 2. Medium level minimum performance, 3. High standing level minimum performance. d. Recommend, for each climatic region of the country, the use of each category for a given wall orientation. e. Prepare documentation and organize courses for architects and building deciders. f. Prepare a legal framework for energy efficient walls with the best team. 2- Use of solar energy for water heating. a. Individual solar water heating. i. Forget the quality-oriented publicity campaigns which add products confusion to the doubts on technology itself in mind of potential customers. ii. Insist on the profitability of solar water heating MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 27 / 28

iii. Prepare budgets for long-term publicity campaigns iv. Lobby to impose a cold water outlet and a hot water inlet on the roofs of any house with less than three floors. b. Private collective professional solar water heating (hotels, clinics). i. Insist on the profitability of solar water heating. ii. Widen the use of “GRS” (Solar Performance Guarantee). iii. Stimulate this profitability by subsidizing financing interest rates. iv. Prepare specific programs for each type of use. 3- Lighting, cooling and air-conditioning : a. Identify existing standards at the international level (Europe or elsewhere) b. Define few performance levels. c. Prepare a legal framework for products labeling (like fridges in Europe). d. Reduce taxes and duty clearance on fluorescent tubes and fluocompactes. e. Prepare a national campaign in favor of fluorescent lighting.

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 28 / 29

ANNEX 1 - DEMOGRAPHY, INCOME, ELECTRICITY & ENERGY DATA POPULATION & REVENU MAROC Population totale (M.hab) (M.hab) Urbaine Urb. (p/r 2004) (M.hab) Rurale (G.Dh courant) Produit intérieur brut par habitant (G.Dh 2004) PIB cst (p/r 2004) par habitant PIB cst par hab (p/r à 2004) (G.Dh 1980) par habitant

ENERGIE PRODUITE & TRANSFORMEE 1- Energie électrique produite Hydraulique Eolien Thermique ONE & concession Thermique Tiers Nationaux Solde échanges extérieurs Total électricité appelée Dépendance énergétique électricité Electricité (p/r à 2004) Urb. (p/r 2004) x PIB cst (p/r 2004) dont produite par ONE Electricité Electricité (0,26tep/kWh) 2- Autres produites & transformées Charbon extrait Pétrole brut extrait Gaz naturel extrait Pétrole raffiné ENERGIE CONSOMMEE AU MAROC Charbon local Charbon importé Electricité hydraulique Electricité éolienne Electricité importée Produits pétroliers Gaz naturel Charbon (loc 0,56tep, imp 0,65) Electricité (0,26tep) Produits pétroliers (1tep) Gaz naturel (0,76tep) TOTAL ENERGIE Dépendance énergétique globale Energie (p/r à 2004) Urb. (p/r 2004) x PIB cst par hab (p/r à 2004) Global Energie non-électrique

(GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh)

(kWh/hab) (tep/hab) (croissance) (1000t) (1000t) (1000m3) (1000t) (1000t) (1000t) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (1000t) (1000m3) (1000tep) (1000tep) (1000tep) (1000tep) (1000tep)

(tep/hab) (croissance) (tep/hab)

1989 23,462 11,213 68,1% 12,249 193,9 8 266 283,2 63,8% 12 072,4 81,3% 103,9 4 429,5

1990 23,953 11,621 70,6% 12,332 212,9 8 886 294,7 66,4% 12 302,4 82,9% 108,1 4 513,9

1991 24,459 12,044 73,2% 12,414 242,4 9 909 315,0 71,0% 12 879,0 86,8% 115,6 4 725,5

1992 24,980 12,483 75,8% 12,498 243,8 9 761 302,3 68,1% 12 102,0 81,5% 110,9 4 440,4

1993 25,518 12,937 78,6% 12,581 249,2 9 766 299,2 67,4% 11 726,6 79,0% 109,8 4 302,7

1994 26,074 13,408 81,4% 12,666 279,3 10 713 330,2 74,4% 12 665,6 85,3% 121,2 4 647,2

1995 26,426 13,686 83,1% 12,740 281,2 10 641 308,5 69,5% 11 674,5 78,7% 113,2 4 283,5

1996 26,785 13,970 84,9% 12,815 319,3 11 921 345,9 78,0% 12 914,7 87,0% 126,9 4 738,6

1997 27,150 14,260 86,6% 12,890 318,3 11 724 338,9 76,4% 12 481,3 84,1% 124,3 4 579,6

1998 27,521 14,555 88,4% 12,965 341,4 12 405 360,3 81,2% 13 091,3 88,2% 132,2 4 803,4

1999 27,899 14,857 90,2% 13,041 345,6 12 388 374,0 84,3% 13 405,3 90,3% 137,2 4 918,6

2000 28,283 15,166 92,1% 13,118 354,1 12 520 389,0 87,7% 13 751,9 92,6% 142,7 5 045,8

2001 28,675 15,480 94,0% 13,195 383,2 13 364 390,8 88,1% 13 629,5 91,8% 143,4 5 000,9

2002 29,073 15,801 96,0% 13,272 397,8 13 683 403,4 90,9% 13 874,0 93,5% 148,0 5 090,6

2003 29,479 16,129 98,0% 13,350 419,5 14 230 425,4 95,9% 14 432,0 97,2% 156,1 5 295,3

2004 29,892 16,464 100,0% 13,428 443,7 14 844 443,7 100,0% 14 843,6 100,0% 162,8 5 446,3

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

817,0 0,0 10 574,9 27,2 1 845,6 13 264,7 90,2% 73,7% 76,1% 6 500,0 475 0,124 5,1%

704,8 63,8 10 770,9 38,9 2 363,2 13 941,6 92,4% 77,5% 80,7% 5 100,0 493 0,128 3,7%

862,3 205,8 12 141,2 75,2 1 563,8 14 848,3 92,8% 82,5% 82,8% 3 900,0 518 0,135 5,0%

842,0 193,9 13 067,6 84,2 1 392,2 15 579,9 93,4% 86,6% 87,3% 4 500,0 536 0,139 3,5%

1 441,0 203,0 13 657,0 41,0 1 437,0 16 779,0 90,2% 93,2% 93,9% 5 800,0 569 0,148 6,2%

1 600,3 198,9 14 584,3 76,0 1 535,0 17 994,5 90,0% 100,0% 100,0% 6 261,4 602 0,157 5,8%

129,2 11,3 43,9 6 556,0 1999 267,9 3 120,0 817,0 0,0 1 845,6 6 731,0 43,9 2 188,1 692,3 6 731,0 33,4 9 644,7 96,1% 83,5% 81,5% 0,346 5,1% 0,222

28,7 13,0 49,9 6 189,0 2000 163,0 3 498,0 704,8 63,8 2 363,2 6 236,0 49,9 2 373,5 814,3 6 236,0 37,9 9 461,7 96,8% 81,9% 85,3% 0,335 -3,2% 0,206

1,9 10,8 50,0 6 324,0 2001

0,3 12,8 47,9 6 339,5 2002

0,2 11,8 46,2 4 182,0 2003

32,3 39,5 6 195,0 2004

5 177,1 862,3 205,8 1 563,8 6 166,0 50,0 3 372,9 684,3 6 166,0 38,0 10 261,2 97,2% 88,9% 86,3% 0,358 7,0% 0,223

5 143,0 852,2 193,9 1 392,2 6 445,0 47,9 3 350,7 631,3 6 445,0 36,4 10 463,4 97,3% 90,6% 89,7% 0,360 0,6% 0,221

5 340,0 1 441,0 203,0 1 437,0 6 682,0 46,2 3 479,0 801,1 6 682,0 35,1 10 997,2 96,0% 95,2% 95,3% 0,373 3,7% 0,225

5 771,0 1 600,3 198,9 1 535,0 6 890,0 39,0 3 759,8 866,9 6 890,0 29,6 11 546,3 95,7% 100,0% 100,0% 0,386 3,5% 0,230

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1 157,2 0,0 6 976,4 0,0 0,0 8 133,6 75,0% 45,2% 43,5%

1 219,7 0,0 7 398,4 0,0 0,0 8 618,1 75,2% 47,9% 46,9%

1 265,9 0,0 7 396,8 0,0 0,0 8 662,7 75,3% 48,1% 51,9%

980,6 0,0 8 020,2 0,0 0,0 9 000,8 78,3% 50,0% 51,7%

454,1 0,0 8 763,9 0,0 0,0 9 218,0 83,0% 51,2% 53,0%

855,1 0,0 9 276,6 0,0 0,0 10 131,7 80,2% 56,3% 60,6%

618,1 0,0 10 588,4 0,0 0,0 11 206,5 84,4% 62,3% 57,8%

1 965,5 0,0 9 621,7 0,0 128,3 11 715,5 77,7% 65,1% 66,2%

2 062,1 0,0 9 480,0 104,1 123,5 11 769,7 78,4% 65,4% 66,1%

347 0,090 5,8%

360 0,094 3,8%

354 0,092 -1,6%

360 0,094 1,7%

361 0,094 0,3%

389 0,101 7,6%

424 0,110 9,1%

437 0,114 3,1%

434 0,113 -0,9%

1 759,1 0,0 9 936,3 42,0 715,5 12 452,9 81,5% 69,2% 71,8% 6 800,0 452 0,118 4,4%

504,3 13,0 61,6 5 544,1 1989 491,1 1 303,9 1 157,2 0,0 0,0 4 797,9 46,8 1 134,3 300,9 4 797,9 35,6 6 268,7 90,6% 54,3% 55,4% 0,267 4,9% 0,177

526,0 14,6 57,0 5 656,9 1990 511,7 1 225,9 1 219,7 0,0 0,0 5 030,0 57,0 1 095,5 317,1 5 030,0 43,3 6 485,9 90,5% 56,2% 58,5% 0,271 1,3% 0,177

550,8 11,8 38,9 5 424,3 1991 491,3 1 398,3 1 265,9 0,0 0,0 5 057,4 36,5 1 195,9 329,1 5 057,4 27,7 6 610,2 90,7% 57,2% 63,5% 0,270 -0,2% 0,178

575,8 10,8 24,0 6 229,9 1992 544,2 1 215,2 980,6 0,0 0,0 5 653,6 18,2 1 107,3 255,0 5 653,6 13,8 7 029,7 91,9% 60,9% 61,8% 0,281 4,1% 0,188

603,8 10,2 25,0 6 259,3 1993 624,7 1 036,1 454,1 0,0 0,0 5 852,0 18,5 1 037,3 118,1 5 852,0 14,1 7 021,5 93,2% 60,8% 62,1% 0,275 -2,2% 0,181

650,4 8,7 24,9 6 577,1 1994 642,8 1 497,0 855,1 0,0 0,0 6 517,0 25,0 1 348,1 222,3 6 517,0 19,0 8 106,4 92,7% 70,2% 69,5% 0,311 13,0% 0,210

649,6 5,1 25,0 6 211,7 1995 635,0 2 454,0 618,1 0,0 0,0 6 125,6 25,0 1 967,1 160,7 6 125,6 19,0 8 272,4 93,7% 71,6% 65,4% 0,313 0,7% 0,203

505,6 5,1 20,0 5 637,8 1996 363,1 2 720,0 1 965,5 0,0 128,3 5 799,0 20,0 1 982,7 544,4 5 799,0 15,2 8 341,3 91,4% 72,2% 73,8% 0,311 -0,5% 0,198

376,3 11,8 33,9 5 920,9 1997 269,6 2 739,7 2 062,1 0,0 123,5 5 904,2 33,9 1 941,3 568,3 5 904,2 25,8 8 439,5 91,7% 73,1% 72,8% 0,311 -0,2% 0,198

269,1 11,6 37,2 6 112,7 1998 302,6 3 143,0 1 759,1 0,0 715,5 6 157,3 37,2 2 223,2 643,4 6 157,3 28,3 9 052,1 92,9% 78,4% 78,0% 0,329 5,8% 0,211

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 29 / 30

ANNEX 2 DEMOGRAPHY, INCOME, ELECTRICITY & ENERGY FORECASTS Year

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

DEMOGRAPHY Population increase Population forecast (000) Urbanisation increase Urbanisation Relative urbanisation (/ 2004) Urban forecast (000)

1,38% 1,35% 1,32% 1,30% 1,27% 1,25% 1,23% 1,20% 1,18% 1,16% 1,14% 29 892 30 295 30 696 31 095 31 492 31 886 32 277 32 665 33 051 33 434 33 814 2,07% 2,02% 1,97% 1,92% 1,87% 1,82% 1,77% 1,73% 1,68% 1,64% 1,60% 55,08% 56,19% 57,29% 58,39% 59,48% 60,56% 61,63% 62,70% 63,75% 64,80% 65,83% 100,0% 102,0% 104,0% 106,0% 108,0% 110,0% 111,9% 113,8% 115,8% 117,6% 119,5% 16 464 17 022 17 587 18 157 18 731 19 310 19 894 20 481 21 071 21 665 22 261

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT GNP per capita increase Relative 2004 Dh GNP (/ 2004)

2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 2,19% 100,0% 103,6% 107,2% 111,0% 114,9% 118,9% 123,0% 127,2% 131,5% 135,9% 140,5%

GNP per capita (2004 Dh) Relative 2004 Dh GNP per capita (/ 2004)

14 844 15 169 15 501 15 840 16 187 16 542 16 904 17 274 17 652 18 039 18 434 100,0% 102,2% 104,4% 106,7% 109,1% 111,4% 113,9% 116,4% 118,9% 121,5% 124,2%

GNP (2004 GDh)

443,7

459,5

475,8

492,6

509,8

527,4

545,6

564,3

583,4

603,1

623,3

22 326 5,42% 709 4,10%

23 520 5,35% 738 4,05%

24 761 5,28% 767 4,00%

26 050 5,21% 797 3,95%

27 388 5,14% 829 3,91%

28 777 5,07% 861 3,86%

30 216 5,00% 894 3,82%

13 598 4,10% 0,432 2,79%

14 148 4,05% 0,444 2,76%

14 714 4,00% 0,456 2,74%

15 296 3,95% 0,468 2,72%

15 894 3,91% 0,481 2,70%

16 508 3,86% 0,494 2,68%

17 139 3,82% 0,507 2,66%

5,96% 21 407 688 4,60%

5,96% 22 683 720 4,63%

5,96% 24 035 754 4,65%

5,96% 25 468 789 4,68%

5,96% 26 986 826 4,70%

5,96% 28 594 865 4,72%

5,96% 30 298 906 4,75%

5,96% 32 104 949 4,77%

4,16% 13 048 0,420 2,82%

4,16% 13 591 0,432 2,85%

4,16% 14 156 0,444 2,87%

4,16% 14 745 0,457 2,90%

4,16% 15 359 0,470 2,92%

4,16% 15 997 0,484 2,94%

4,16% 16 663 0,498 2,97%

4,16% 17 356 0,513 2,99%

ELECTRICITY : URBANISATION & GNP MODEL Electricity & forecast (GWh) Variation Electricity per capita (kWh) Variation

17 995 602

19 013 5,66% 628 4,25%

20 073 5,58% 654 4,20%

21 177 5,50% 681 4,15%

ENERGY : URBANISATION & GNP MODEL Energy & forecast (000 tep) Variation Energy per capita (tep) Variation

11 546 0,386

12 037 4,25% 0,397 2,86%

12 543 4,20% 0,409 2,84%

13 063 4,15% 0,420 2,81%

ELECTRICITY : SIMPLE EVOLUTION MODEL Electricity increase Electricity & forecast (GWh) Electricity per capita (kWh) Variation

5,96% 17 995 602

5,96% 19 067 629 4,55%

5,96% 20 203 658 4,58%

ENERGY : SIMPLE EVOLUTION MODEL Energy increase Energy & forecast (000 tep) Energy per capita (tep) Variation

4,16% 11 546 0,386

4,16% 12 027 0,397 2,77%

4,16% 12 527 0,408 2,80%

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 30 / 31

ANNEX 3 MONTHLY & YEARLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES City

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Year

Agadir

13,9 °C 15,0 °C 16,6 °C 17,5 °C 19,0 °C 20,2 °C 21,8 °C 22,1 °C 21,6 °C 20,2 °C 17,7 °C 14,5 °C 18,4 °C

Benguerir

11,4 °C 13,0 °C 15,6 °C 17,3 °C 21,3 °C 23,6 °C 27,5 °C 28,1 °C 24,8 °C 21,1 °C 15,9 °C 12,3 °C 19,2 °C

Beni-Mellal

10,0 °C 12,4 °C 14,9 °C 16,4 °C 19,5 °C 23,8 °C 28,3 °C 28,1 °C 25,8 °C 20,4 °C 15,6 °C 11,6 °C 19,2 °C

Casablanca

12,4 °C 13,0 °C 14,4 °C 15,7 °C 17,7 °C 20,2 °C 22,3 °C 22,7 °C 21,7 °C 19,3 °C 16,0 °C 13,3 °C 17,4 °C

Ceuta

10,8 °C 11,4 °C 11,9 °C 13,4 °C 15,7 °C 18,7 °C 21,2 °C 22,0 °C 19,8 °C 16,9 °C 13,7 °C 11,7 °C 15,6 °C

Errachidia

8,5 °C 11,5 °C 15,5 °C 18,3 °C 22,1 °C 27,6 °C 31,1 °C 30,5 °C 26,4 °C 19,9 °C 13,8 °C

Fes

9,2 °C 10,9 °C 13,2 °C 14,8 °C 18,7 °C 22,7 °C 26,1 °C 26,3 °C 23,3 °C 18,3 °C 13,9 °C 10,1 °C 17,2 °C

9,5 °C 19,9 °C

Kasba-Tadla

10,9 °C 12,0 °C 13,6 °C 15,6 °C 20,5 °C 24,2 °C 29,2 °C 29,0 °C 25,1 °C 20,7 °C 14,4 °C 10,3 °C 18,9 °C

Kenitra

12,2 °C 13,0 °C 15,1 °C 16,4 °C 18,4 °C 20,9 °C 22,6 °C 23,1 °C 21,7 °C 19,4 °C 16,0 °C 13,2 °C 17,7 °C

Laayoun

17,8 °C 18,2 °C 19,3 °C 19,0 °C 19,8 °C 20,8 °C 21,8 °C 22,4 °C 22,8 °C 22,4 °C 21,0 °C 18,7 °C 20,3 °C

Marrakech

11,4 °C 13,2 °C 15,7 °C 17,7 °C 20,7 °C 23,9 °C 28,3 °C 28,2 °C 25,1 °C 20,9 °C 15,9 °C 12,1 °C 19,5 °C

Meknes Melilla

9,8 °C 10,9 °C 12,9 °C 14,7 °C 17,4 °C 21,0 °C 25,0 °C 25,1 °C 22,6 °C 18,6 °C 13,9 °C 10,4 °C 16,9 °C 13,2 °C 13,8 °C 14,0 °C 15,5 °C 17,9 °C 21,0 °C 23,9 °C 25,0 °C 22,8 °C 19,4 °C 15,7 °C 13,7 °C 18,0 °C

Midelt

6,1 °C

8,4 °C 11,4 °C 12,3 °C 15,6 °C 20,6 °C 24,6 °C 24,6 °C 21,0 °C 15,3 °C 10,7 °C

7,5 °C 15,2 °C

Ouarzazate

9,1 °C 11,6 °C 14,8 °C 17,9 °C 21,7 °C 26,2 °C 29,7 °C 29,0 °C 24,6 °C 19,4 °C 13,6 °C

9,2 °C 19,0 °C

Oujda

9,4 °C 11,0 °C 12,8 °C 14,5 °C 16,8 °C 21,2 °C 24,9 °C 25,3 °C 23,3 °C 18,8 °C 14,6 °C 11,2 °C 17,1 °C

Rabat

12,2 °C 13,2 °C 14,7 °C 15,7 °C 17,3 °C 20,1 °C 22,3 °C 22,6 °C 22,1 °C 19,4 °C 16,8 °C 13,8 °C 17,6 °C

Safi

13,0 °C 14,2 °C 16,0 °C 16,5 °C 18,4 °C 20,6 °C 23,5 °C 24,2 °C 23,4 °C 20,5 °C 17,5 °C 14,5 °C 18,6 °C

Sidi Ifni

16,0 °C 16,5 °C 17,6 °C 17,7 °C 18,9 °C 19,6 °C 20,7 °C 21,2 °C 21,3 °C 20,9 °C 19,4 °C 16,6 °C 18,9 °C

Sidi Slimane

12,5 °C 13,5 °C 15,6 °C 17,1 °C 20,6 °C 23,1 °C 25,9 °C 26,6 °C 24,2 °C 20,7 °C 16,2 °C 13,4 °C 19,0 °C

Tanger

12,0 °C 12,9 °C 14,1 °C 15,0 °C 17,3 °C 20,5 °C 23,5 °C 23,7 °C 23,4 °C 19,8 °C 16,6 °C 13,9 °C 17,8 °C

Taza

9,8 °C 11,8 °C 14,2 °C 15,2 °C 18,5 °C 23,4 °C 27,5 °C 27,7 °C 25,3 °C 19,6 °C 14,8 °C 11,3 °C 18,5 °C

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 31 / 32

ANNEX 4 HORIZONTAL SOLAR RADIATION (kWh/m²) Cities Agadir Al Houceima Beni Mellal Casablanca Dakhla El Ayoun El Jadida Errachidia Essaouira Fes Ifrane Khenifra Larache Marrakech Meknes Midelt Nador Nouasser Ouarzazate Oujda Rabat-Sale Safi Sidi Ifni Sidi Slimane Tanger Tan Tan Taza Tetouan

Jan 3665 2833 3276 2701 4066 3830 2777 3604 3303 2878 2974 2622 2517 3450 2822 3525 2697 3105 3861 2890 2790 3127 3418 2954 2531 3396 2930 2573

Feb 4523 3551 4041 3566 4901 4918 3550 4648 4126 3557 3701 3445 3292 4191 3670 4407 3480 3780 4794 3718 3595 4035 4232 3485 3292 4348 3781 3169

Mar 5549 4667 4995 4694 5813 5719 5000 5688 5127 4540 4586 4614 4612 5165 4607 5574 4940 4938 6018 4692 4566 5114 5276 4550 4483 5288 4761 4312

Apr 6495 5553 5868 5827 6599 6436 5767 6546 6105 5399 5488 5897 5767 5987 5690 6527 5823 5751 7116 5766 5844 6298 5680 5458 5742 5721 5797 5364

May 6822 6426 6692 6393 7162 6968 6801 7363 6635 6551 6598 6678 6597 6679 6620 7081 6365 6534 7567 6671 6595 6926 5595 6731 6783 5620 6797 6289

Jun 6588 6919 7472 6716 6681 6960 6790 7705 6872 6751 7319 6980 7010 7345 7264 7476 6869 6909 7854 7254 6857 7037 5063 7099 7278 4903 7390 6958

Jul 6644 6975 7809 6891 6238 6807 6124 7381 7063 7615 7840 7228 7183 7582 7742 7332 6787 7356 7513 7652 7129 7305 5087 7054 7629 4951 7650 6933

Aug 6035 6422 7213 6369 6216 6519 5969 6714 6570 7047 7108 6724 6556 7019 7114 6850 6061 6921 6871 6850 6621 6866 5031 6462 7080 4970 6962 6412

Sep 5504 5235 5983 5415 5764 5734 5310 5967 5572 5813 5817 5548 5464 5905 5771 5952 5110 5606 6068 5695 5529 5766 5034 5256 5692 5038 5807 4935

Oct 4646 4033 4667 4044 4804 5001 4093 5077 4423 4247 4315 3982 4045 4628 4274 4189 3924 4327 5058 4305 4203 4466 4546 3988 4112 4437 4287 3769

Nov 3731 2970 3528 3008 4038 4215 3155 4019 3298 3088 3159 2913 2932 3584 3086 3697 3210 3496 4008 3130 3179 3378 3763 3236 2886 3508 3189 2811

Dec 3316 2600 3005 2383 3789 3499 2653 3563 2976 2621 2650 2353 2334 3198 2534 3314 2491 2752 3584 2673 2555 2891 3257 2607 2309 3300 2693 2432

Average 5,30 kWh/m² 4,86 kWh/m² 5,39 kWh/m² 4,84 kWh/m² 5,51 kWh/m² 5,55 kWh/m² 4,84 kWh/m² 5,69 kWh/m² 5,18 kWh/m² 5,02 kWh/m² 5,14 kWh/m² 4,92 kWh/m² 4,87 kWh/m² 5,40 kWh/m² 5,11 kWh/m² 5,50 kWh/m² 4,82 kWh/m² 5,13 kWh/m² 5,86 kWh/m² 5,12 kWh/m² 4,96 kWh/m² 5,27 kWh/m² 4,67 kWh/m² 4,91 kWh/m² 4,99 kWh/m² 4,62 kWh/m² 5,18 kWh/m² 4,67 kWh/m²

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 32 / 33

ANNEX 5 VERTICAL FACING SOUTH SOLAR RADIATION (kWh/m²) Cities

Jan

Agadir

3,67 3,62 3,28 2,70 2,08 1,80 1,92 2,32 2,91 3,39 3,50 3,49 2,89 kWh/m²

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Al Houceima

3,07 3,76 3,97 3,82 3,62 3,43 3,51 3,85 4,07 4,02 3,63 3,53 3,69 kWh/m²

Beni Mellal

3,37 4,04 3,98 3,73 3,39 3,07 3,13 3,69 4,20 4,35 4,10 3,83 3,74 kWh/m²

Casablanca

2,61 3,67 3,92 3,84 3,53 3,34 3,40 3,75 4,08 3,92 3,54 2,99 3,55 kWh/m²

Dakhla

3,27 4,06 3,79 3,22 2,55 2,44 2,67 3,03 3,54 3,79 3,84 3,92 3,34 kWh/m²

El Ayoun

3,42 4,35 3,98 3,47 2,93 2,69 2,82 3,26 3,74 4,15 4,32 3,91 3,58 kWh/m²

El Jadida

2,69 3,59 4,04 3,76 3,46 3,26 3,37 3,63 3,96 3,91 3,68 3,37 3,56 kWh/m²

Errachidia

3,84 4,61 4,34 3,83 3,30 2,98 3,15 3,62 4,16 4,66 4,70 4,68 3,98 kWh/m²

Essaouira

3,28 4,04 4,00 3,72 3,33 3,10 3,16 3,58 3,96 4,06 3,69 3,67 3,63 kWh/m²

Fes

2,95 3,66 3,80 3,70 3,51 3,32 3,32 3,82 4,25 4,11 3,66 3,40 3,62 kWh/m²

Ifrane

3,05 3,78 3,80 3,70 3,48 3,21 3,25 3,79 4,22 4,13 3,71 3,40 3,62 kWh/m²

Khenifra

2,58 3,56 3,87 3,86 3,54 3,33 3,39 3,81 4,15 3,89 3,45 2,99 3,53 kWh/m²

Larache

2,52 3,46 3,92 3,88 3,60 3,40 3,48 3,86 4,18 4,03 3,57 3,06 3,58 kWh/m²

Marrakech

3,54 4,12 4,03 3,71 3,33 3,02 3,08 3,61 4,10 4,24 4,08 4,04 3,74 kWh/m²

Meknes

2,85 3,77 3,84 3,78 3,51 3,26 3,31 3,83 4,23 4,13 3,65 3,24 3,61 kWh/m²

Midelt

3,85 4,45 4,34 3,89 3,39 3,10 3,23 3,69 4,21 3,95 4,37 4,39 3,90 kWh/m²

Nador

2,82 3,67 4,14 3,89 3,59 3,41 3,49 3,77 3,98 3,90 3,99 3,32 3,66 kWh/m²

Nouasser

3,25 3,85 4,01 3,76 3,47 3,25 3,29 3,76 4,11 4,14 4,18 3,55 3,72 kWh/m²

Ouarzazate

4,08 4,63 4,42 3,83 3,18 2,83 3,03 3,54 4,11 4,53 4,54 4,54 3,93 kWh/m²

Oujda

3,10 3,90 3,95 3,85 3,58 3,35 3,41 3,87 4,26 4,24 3,82 3,60 3,74 kWh/m²

Rabat-Sale

2,82 3,71 3,82 3,83 3,52 3,32 3,38 3,78 4,12 4,08 3,81 3,30 3,62 kWh/m²

Safi

3,12 4,02 4,05 3,81 3,37 3,14 3,19 3,66 4,10 4,16 3,88 3,64 3,67 kWh/m²

Sidi Ifni

3,15 3,96 3,94 3,52 3,21 3,07 3,11 3,27 3,62 3,99 4,05 3,84 3,56 kWh/m²

Sidi Slimane

3,13 3,60 3,82 3,73 3,54 3,31 3,40 3,78 4,01 3,89 3,91 3,41 3,63 kWh/m²

Tanger

2,61 3,50 3,87 3,90 3,65 3,43 3,51 3,99 4,34 4,14 3,56 3,07 3,63 kWh/m²

Tan Tan

3,02 4,01 3,90 3,49 3,16 3,02 3,06 3,22 3,58 3,85 3,68 3,81 3,48 kWh/m²

Taza

3,08 3,93 3,96 3,83 3,54 3,27 3,35 3,84 4,28 4,18 3,84 3,56 3,72 kWh/m²

Tetouan

2,67 3,34 3,73 3,77 3,62 3,44 3,52 3,86 3,91 3,77 3,43 3,28 3,53 kWh/m²

Average

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 33 / 34

ANNEX 6 MAP OF MOROCCO

MED-ENEC Baseline-Study : Morocco – Page 34 / 35

ANNEX 7 MONTHLY AVERAGE OF HEATING (HDD>0) AND COOLING (CDD