Government Foresight Report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland

Prime Minister’s Office Publications

30/2009

Government Foresight Report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland

Prime Minister’s Office Publications | 30/2009

DESCRIPTION 15 October 2009

Publisher PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE Authors

Type of publication *RYHUQPHQWIRUHVLJKWUHSRUW

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Contents FOREWORD .............................................................................................................................. 7 1

INTRODUCTION: FINLAND – A LEADER IN CLIMATE PROTECTION ............................. 11

2

WHAT IS REQUIRED TO AVERT A CLIMATE CRISIS? ..................................................... 14

3

CLIMATE PROTECTION – A CHALLENGE FOR GLOBAL POLICY ................................... 26

4

PATHS TOWARDS A LOW-CARBON FINLAND .............................................................. 46

5

SUSTAINABLE CLIMATE POLICY .................................................................................. 57

6

AFFLUENCE WITHOUT BURDENING THE CLIMATE ...................................................... 69

7

CLIMATE PROTECTION AND EVERYDAY LIFE ............................................................. 100

8

ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE.......................................................................... 120

9

TOWARDS MORE EFFECTIVE POLICIES AND MEASURES........................................... 134

10

MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE POLICY ......................................................................... 147

SUMMARY OF POLICIES........................................................................................................ 156 APPENDIX 1: DESCRIPTION AND ASSESSMENT OF SCENARIOS OF THE FORESIGHT REPORT ................................................................................................................................. 160 APPENDIX 2: PREPARATION OF THE FORESIGHT REPORT AND BACKGROUND STUDIES ................................................................................................................................ 185

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Developing countries = Countries not listed in Annex I of the UN Climate Convention The world Industrialised countries = Countries listed in Annex I of the UN Climate Convention 1) Emissions peak and start to decline before 2020. 2) On this path, the atmospheric GHG concentration peaks at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent before 2050 and falls to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent. 3) A 50% reduction in emissions by 2050.

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Policy A ban on incandescent lamps A fund of 500 million Australian dollars for renewable energy Brazil A national climate programme where the objectives are to reduce energy consumption by 10% by the year 2030, to increase the capacity of renewable energy production by 7,000 MW by 2010, and to stop deforestation by 2015 China A national climate programme where the goal is, among other things, to reduce the energy intensity of the economy by 20% and to increase the area covered by forests by 20% by the year 2010 New energy efficiency requirements for buildings with a reduction of 50% when compared against the mean level in the 1980s Germany A national climate programme with 29 regulatory and financing projects for various sectors and with the objective of reducing emissions by 40% by 2020 A separate fund for energy efficiency consultation and loans for SMEs Holland Environmental tax on flights departing the country An energy efficiency programme for buildings (to increase the energy efficiency of 500,000 buildings by 30% in 2008–11) A renewable energy programme for buildings India A national climate programme with actions for energy efficiency, renewable energy and reforestation Feed-in tariffs for solar and wind power; wind power target 10.5 GW in 2012 Energy efficiency requirements for new buildings Indonesia A national climate programme where the goal is to increase the share of renewable energy to 17% by 2025 and to 30% by 2050, and to afforest 36 million hectares of land suffering from deforestation Japan A national energy conservation programme with actions pertaining, for instance, to the energy services of households and industry, the energy efficiency of buildings, and the scope of application of the Energy Conservation Act New standards for the fuel consumption of vehicles Mexico A national climate programme where emissions will peak in 2012, after which they will be reduced by 50% by the year 2050 New Zealand Emissions trading since 2008 for some forests and from 2010 for energy generation and industry An energy efficiency programme for homes, transport, State administration and enterprises; the goal is to achieve savings totalling 205 PJ by 2025. An energy programme where the goal is to raise the share of renewable energy to 90% by 2025 Norway A carbon neutrality programme with investment subsidies, taxes, development of public transport and support for preventing deforestation in developing countries A bioenergy strategy with new investment subsidies, requirements for public buildings and R&D support Feed-in tariffs for wind, hydropower and bioenergy South Africa Feed-in tariffs for wind, small-scale hydropower, biogas and solar power Sweden Government strategy where the goal set for 2020 is to cut emissions by 40% outside emissions trading, to improve the efficiency of energy use by 20%, and to raise the share of renewable energy to 50% United Kingdom A Climate Act with binding emission targets and related measures An Energy Act with feed-in tariffs and the authorisation to increase support for renewable heat United States An increase of USD 800 million in tax support and other subsidies for renewable energy, and USD 800 million for energy efficiency in 2008 In the budget proposal for 2010, a total of USD 150 billion for clean energy during ten years, emissions trading, and phasing out of support for fossil fuels; USD 16 billion for the energy efficiency of buildings

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–100%

carbon neutral by 2020

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Costa Rica

–100%

carbon neutral by 2021

Norway

–100%

carbon neutral by 2030

New Zealand

–100%

carbon neutral by 2040

Sweden

–100%

carbon neutral

UK

–80%

minimum target determined in the Climate Change Act

United States

–80%

President Obama’s proposal

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–3.4%

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+1.9%

Application of the general equilibrium model (instead of coarser econometric or growth models)

+1.5%

Reactions of technological development to incentives (induced technological change)

+1.3%

Ancillary benefits (e.g. reduction of air pollution)

+1.0%

Flexible mechanisms

+0.7%

Backstop-technology (unlimited availability of carbon-free energy, such as wind and solar power)

+0.6%

Avoiding the adverse effects of climate change

+0.2%

The most optimistic assumptions

+3.9%

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50

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30

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20

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10

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Means

Potential

Heating buildings

Energy efficiency standards, renovation subsidies, publicity and 13.9 TWh in 2020 training, ensuring financing for builders 33.7 TWh in 2050

Household electricity consumption

More efficient devices, real-time electricity consumption metering

2.3 TWh in 2020

Services

More efficient devices, support for structural development in the sector, improving the functionality of processes

3.8 TWh in 2020

Pulp and paper industry

Process optimisation, more efficient equipment, new technologies (including lowering the volume of traditional products but not the consumption of new products)

4 TWh in 2020

4.7 TWh in 2050 12.6 TWh in 2050 13.5 TWh in 2050

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Laundry detergents AB11 Climate impacts of the product for the entire production chain up to the shop shelf. The figures describe the range of variation for the climate impact.

Product purchased

Product identification code

Use

300–700

120–130 50–100 The website www.ilmastomerkki.fi would serve as the homepage for the consumeroriented label and the manufacturer-oriented climate report system. The site would also contain information on how to reduce climate impacts during product use.

g CO2 eq

Waste

Climate impacts during typical use. These figures are printed in a lighter colour because the real climate impacts during use vary widely and may even deviate from this range calculated for typical situations.

Climate impact during a typical waste phase.

ilmastomerkki.fi Figure: Ari Nissinen, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)

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Impacts Earlier growing season, floods more common in winter and during harvest, price fluctuations greater

Measures initiated Research on plant cultivation oriented towards the needs of the changing climate, flood-sensitive arable land taken into account in planning, wintertime vegetation cover on fields encouraged

Long-term challenges The changing role of Finland’s agriculture as the world food security declines, breeding of new plant varieties, the prevention of plant diseases and pests, the increasing load on water bodies, flood protection and drainage for fields, irrigation Mild autumns and Improved monitoring of forest Limits of the adaptive capacity of winters complicate the damage, improved preparation for forests in case warming is rapid, harvesting of wood storm damage securing the wood supply for industry Autumn and winter Climate evaluations included in Preparation for rising sea level and floods more common dam design and regulation of flooding along the coast waters, risk assessment of floods in built areas improved, national land use guidelines revised Securing telecommunications, Preparation for the combined preparation for oil spills in the effect of increase in storms and Gulf of Finland the rising sea level, preparation for forest damage Impact of climate change on Risks of bioenergy production, electricity grids assessed impact of increase in storms and the rising sea level on nuclear power plants, risks concerning major power lines Mild winters complicate Adaptation studies on road, Changes in the ice conditions road maintenance and sea, air and rail transport, road of the Baltic Sea, logistical increase the risk of districts have preparedness plans importance of northern Finland as accidents for disruption notification the Northern Sea Route becomes passable

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Legislation and regulations The need for cooling in energydeveloped to take extreme efficient construction weather events into account Health Darker winters resulting Finnish Meteorological Institute Coping with darkness from reduced snow and alert service for heatwaves and increased cloudiness, cold weather, study on correlation slippery road conditions of weather and health problems more frequent Tourism Uncertainty of Alteration of winter sports centres operations at winter in southern Finland, preparation sports centres, for possible growth of tourism in especially at the start of eastern and northern Finland the skiing season Immigration EU-level measures to control Preparation for uncontrolled migration, combating illegal forced migration immigration and human trafficking

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100

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25

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UK

Certain sectors outside EU emissions trading

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Ministry Prime Minister’s Office Ministry for Foreign Affairs

Responsibility in climate policy Coordination of the Government Programme, the Foresight Report Clean Development Mechanism projects

Ministry of Justice Ministry of the Interior Ministry of Defence Ministry of Finance

Ministry of Education

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Main responsibility for adaptation to climate change

Ministry of Transport and Communications Ministry of Employment and the Economy

Ministry of Social Affairs and Health Ministry of the Environment

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Main responsibility for the mitigation of climate change

Main responsibility for international climate negotiations Joint Implementation projects

Policies associated with the climate

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Leading idea Average annual economic growth Economic structure

Urban structure Passenger transport performance Final energy consumption

A: Efficiency Revolution Eco-efficiency 1.7%

B: Sustainable C: Be SelfD: Technology Daily Mile sufficient is the Key Local services Self-sufficiency Industrial Finland 1.8% 1.2% 1.8%

The share of services has increased clearly Cohesive

The share of services has increased

Decreased

Decreased clearly Decreased by 1/4 2/3 Increased

Halved

Share of renewable energy 1/1 Use of nuclear power Ended

The share of services has increased slightly Highly cohesive Dispersed At the present level Decreased by 1/3 4/5 Decreased

Similar as compared to the present Dispersed in urban areas Increased At the present level 3/5 Increased clearly

Finnish business and industry in 2050 8QGHUO\LQJWKHORZFDUERQSDWKVWKHUHDUHJHQHUDODVVXPSWLRQVDERXWHFRQRPLF DQG EXVLQHVV WUHQGV 7KH DVVXPSWLRQV VHOHFWHG GR QRW WDNH D SRVLWLRQ IRU RU DJDLQVW WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI FHUWDLQ EXVLQHVVHV LQVWHDG EDVHG RQ DVVHVVPHQWV PDGHE\H[SHUWVWKH\UHSUHVHQWSRWHQWLDODQGVXI¿FLHQWO\GLIIHUHQWGHYHORSPHQW WUHQGV,QDQ\FDVHDVVXPSWLRQVDERXWIXWXUHHFRQRPLFVWUXFWXUHVLQYROYHPDMRU XQFHUWDLQWLHV

161

7KH YROXPH RI VHUYLFHV LQFUHDVHV LQ DOO RI WKH VFHQDULRV DQG LQ VRPH HYHQ VXEVWDQWLDOO\7KHVKDUHRIVHUYLFHVLQWKH*'3UDQJHVIURPWZRWKLUGVLQVFHQDULR 'WRIRXU¿IWKVLQVFHQDULR$*URZWKLVH[SHFWHGIRULQVWDQFHLQWKHVHFWRUVRI ZHOOEHLQJVHUYLFHVDQGWRXULVP,QDGGLWLRQWKHFUHDWLYHHFRQRP\DQGEXVLQHVV VHUYLFHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKORZFDUERQVRFLHW\SURYLGHHPSOR\PHQW ,QDOORIWKHVFHQDULRVLQGXVWU\LVPRGHUQLVHGDQGEHFRPHVPRUHHI¿FLHQWWKDQ DWSUHVHQW,QVFHQDULR$LQGXVWU\¶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¿FLHQF\IRRG LVSURGXFHGGRPHVWLFDOO\WRWKHH[WHQWSRVVLEOHZKHUHDVLQVFHQDULR'DJULFXOWXUH KDV VKUXQN FRQVLGHUDEO\ )RUHVWV DUH DQ LPSRUWDQW UHVRXUFH IRU LQGXVWU\ DQG HQHUJ\SURGXFWLRQLQDOORIWKHVFHQDULRV 7KH VFHQDULRV VRXJKW WR PDS RXW )LQODQG¶V UROHV LQ WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\ RI WKH V 7KH VKDUH RI VHUYLFHV LQ WKH )LQQLVK HFRQRP\ PD\ ULVH UDSLGO\ LI WKH JOREDOGLYLVLRQRIGXWLHVSURFHHGVLQDGLUHFWLRQHQDEOLQJWKLV2QWKHRWKHUKDQG LQGXVWU\¶V SRVLWLRQ PD\ UHPDLQ VWURQJ LI SURGXFWLRQ FDQ EH UHYDPSHG VR WKDW HPLVVLRQVDUHNHSWORZ.QRZKRZDQGVNLOOVSOD\DQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQDOORIWKH VFHQDULRV

Energy consumption by sector 7KHZRUNRQWKHVFHQDULRVVKRZVWKDW)LQODQGFDQUHGXFHHPLVVLRQVE\DWOHDVW  SHU FHQW LQ D YDULHW\ RI GLIIHUHQW ZD\V $OO ORZFDUERQ SDWKV UHTXLUH HQHUJ\ FRQVHUYDWLRQDQGVLJQL¿FDQWLPSURYHPHQWVLQHQHUJ\HI¿FLHQF\LQDOOVHFWRUV,Q WKHVFHQDULRVHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQHLWKHUGHFUHDVHVFOHDUO\RUUHPDLQVURXJKO\DW WKHSUHVHQWOHYHO

162

(OHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQGHFUHDVHVLQDOORWKHUVFHQDULRVH[FHSW'ZKHUHLWLQFUHDVHV EHFDXVHRILQGXVWU\+RZHYHUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRIVRFLHW\FRQWLQXHVHOHFWULFLW\ZLOO FRYHUDQLQFUHDVLQJVKDUHRIHQHUJ\LQDOORIWKHVFHQDULRV 7DEOH

)LQDOHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQLQWKHVFHQDULRV7:K 2007

A

B

C

D

108

54

111

81

150

Electricity used by services and households

30

26

20

26

36

Heating

62

27

30

31

37

Transport

50

15

21

25

21

250

122

183

163

245

Industry

Total

7KH¿JXUHVKDYHEHHQURXQGHGWRWKHQHDUHVWIXOOWHUDZDWWKRXU7KHGDWDIRUKHDWSXPSVVKRZWKHLU HIIHFWLYH KHDWLQJHQHUJ\ 7KH ¿JXUHV GR QRW LQFOXGHGLUHFW XVH RI IXHOV E\ LQGXVWU\ FD  7:KLQ  

(QHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQGHFUHDVHVVKDUSO\LQWKHKHDWLQJRIUHVLGHQWLDODQGVHUYLFH EXLOGLQJV,QFRQVWUXFWLRQSUDFWLFHVRIQHZEXLOGLQJSURMHFWVWKHUHZLOOEHDJUDGXDO WUDQVLWLRQWRZDUGVFOHDUO\LPSURYHGHQHUJ\HI¿FLHQF\ZKLOHWKHHQHUJ\HI¿FLHQF\ RIROGEXLOGLQJVLVLPSURYHGLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWKUHQRYDWLRQV 7DEOH

+HDWLQJRIUHVLGHQWLDODQGVHUYLFHEXLOGLQJV7:K 2007

A

B

C

District heating

28

14

17

10

13

Electric heating

9

6

5

5

15

Heat pumps

D

2

3

3

5

4

Other

23

4

5

11

5

Total

62

27

30

31

37

7KH¿JXUHVKDYHEHHQURXQGHGWRWKHQHDUHVWIXOOWHUDZDWWKRXU7KHGDWDIRUKHDWSXPSVVKRZWKHLU HIIHFWLYHKHDWLQJHQHUJ\

,QVFHQDULR$EXLOGLQJVZLWKSRRUHQHUJ\HI¿FLHQF\DUHWRUQGRZQ/LYLQJVSDFH SHUFDSLWDUHPDLQVXQFKDQJHGLQ%LQFUHDVHVVOLJKWO\LQ$DQG&DQGLQFUHDVHV FOHDUO\ LQ ' ,Q VFHQDULRV $ DQG % LW LV DVVXPHG WKDW URRP WHPSHUDWXUHV DUH UHGXFHGE\WZRGHJUHHV&HOVLXV ,QGXVWU\¶VHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQGHSHQGVRQWKHYROXPHVWUXFWXUHDQGHI¿FLHQF\ RISURGXFWLRQ$OORIWKHVFHQDULRVDVVXPHWKDWWKHVSHFL¿FHI¿FLHQF\RISURGXFWLRQ ZLOOLPSURYHRQDYHUDJHE\RQH¿IWK

163

)LJXUH

7UHQGRIHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQLQLQGXVWU\

160

Scenario A

140 Scenario B

TWh

120 100

Scenario C

80

Scenario D

60 40 20 0 2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

7KHVFHQDULRVGLIIHUFRQVLGHUDEO\LQWHUPVRIHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQ,QVFHQDULR' LQGXVWU\FRQVXPHVQHDUO\WKUHHWLPHVDVPXFKHOHFWULFLW\DQGKHDWDVLQ$ 7DEOH

,QGXVWU\¶VHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQ7:K 2007

A

B

C

D

Electricity

48

26

50

38

69

Heat

60

28

Total

108

54

61 111

44 81

80 150

7KH¿JXUHVKDYHEHHQURXQGHGWRWKHQHDUHVWIXOOWHUDZDWWKRXU

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(OHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQE\VHUYLFHVDQGKRXVHKROGV7:K 2007

A

B

C

D

Services

15

16

11

15

20

Households Other

11

8

6

9

11

3

2

2

2

5

7KH¿JXUHVKDYHEHHQURXQGHGWRWKHQHDUHVWIXOOWHUDZDWWKRXU7KH\GRQRWLQFOXGHHOHFWULFKHDWLQJ

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7KHHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQRIWUDQVSRUWYDULHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHWUDQVSRUWGHPDQG PRGDO VSOLW DQG HI¿FLHQF\ RI YHKLFOHV 3DVVHQJHU WUDQVSRUW SHUIRUPDQFH ZLOO GHFUHDVH E\ PRUH WKDQ RQH ¿IWK LQ % DQG E\ RQH WHQWK LQ $ ZKLOH LQ & WKH SHUIRUPDQFHUHPDLQVDWWKHFXUUHQWOHYHODQGLQ'LWULVHVE\RQHWKLUG,QVFHQDULR %LWLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHXWLOLVDWLRQUDWHRIFDUVZLOOLQFUHDVH )LJXUH

7UHQGLQWKHHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQRIWUDQVSRUW

TWh

60

Scenario A

50

Scenario B

40

Scenario C

30

Scenario D

20 10 0 2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

,Q DOO RI WKH VFHQDULRV GULYLQJ ZLOO FRYHU D VPDOOHU VKDUH RI SDVVHQJHU WUDI¿F WKDQDWSUHVHQW,QVFHQDULR%ZLWKLWVVKRUWGLVWDQFHVWKHVKDUHRIELF\FOHDQG SHGHVWULDQWUDI¿FHYHQWULSOHV,QVFHQDULR$WKHPRVWXUEDQVFHQDULRWKHVKDUH RISXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQFUHDVHVE\PRUHWKDQSHUFHQW 7DEOH

3HUFHQWDJHRISDVVHQJHUWUDQVSRUWSHUIRUPDQFH

Cars Public transport Bicycle and pedestrian traffic

2007

A

B

C

D

80

65

65

76

77

15

25

20

19

18

5

10

15

5

5

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165

7DEOH

6XSSO\RIGLVWULFWKHDWLQJDQGKHDWLQJIRULQGXVWU\7:K

District heating (CHP) District heating (separate production) Industry (CHP) Industry (separate production) Nuclear district heating Total

2007

A

B

C

D

25.4

11.1

1.4

8.0

4.6

7.8

2.8

3.8

2.5

2.9

49.4

25.4

9.2

31.0

72.2

12.3

2.8

52.0

12.7

2.8

0 94.9

0 42.1

10.9 77.3

0 54.2

7.1 89.6

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Energy generation in the scenarios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

6XSSO\RIHOHFWULFLW\LQWKHVFHQDULRV7:K

Nuclear power Hydropower Wind power CHP with renewable sources CHP with other sources Condensing power Other Imports (+) or exports (–) Total

2007

A

B

C

D

22.5

0

41.6

13.1

64.6

14.0

14.6

15.2

17.5

15.2

0.2

22.9

18.6

20.3

22.1

9.2

17.4

4.0

16.6

27.2

17.4

0

0

1.3

7.3

14.5

8.4

0

5.0

8.5

0

0.8

0

0.3

0

12.6 90.3

4.8 68.9

0 79.3

0 73.8

–6.1 144.7

7KHVXSSO\RIHOHFWULFLW\FRPSULVHVGRPHVWLFFRQVXPSWLRQWUDQVPLVVLRQORVVHVDQGH[SRUWVDEURDG LIDQ\

166

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,QGLJHQRXVHQHUJ\VRXUFHVDQGHQHUJ\EDVHGRQLPSRUWHGIXHOV SHUFHQWRIFRQVXPSWLRQ 2007

A

B

C

D

35

96

70

91

66

61

0

30

9

34

4

4

0

0

–3

Indigenous energy sources Energy production based on imported fuels Electricity imports (+) or exports (–)

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167

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6RXUFHVRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\7:K

Forest energy, of which

- waste liquors - by-products - energy wood Arable energy Biogas Waste-derived fuels Hydropower Wind power Other (solar, waves) Total

2007

A

B

C

D

83.3 43.3 20.7 19.3 0.3 0.4 1.1 14.0 0.2 0 99.3

76.8 10.8 10.3 55.8 5.1 0.6 1.1 14.6 22.9 0.8 121.9

82.3 26.9 18.3 37.0 5.0 0.6 0.6 15.2 18.6 0 122.3

77.3 24.1 16.4 36.9 4.0 1.2 0.8 17.5 20.3 0.3 121.4

113.0

51.6 24.6 36.8 5.0 0.2 2.3 15.2 22.1 0 157.8

,QDOORIWKHVFHQDULRVIRUHVWHQHUJ\UHPDLQVFOHDUO\WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWVRXUFH RI UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ ,W DFFRXQWV IRU DERXW WZR WKLUGV RI UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ ,Q VFHQDULR$WKHPDLQVRXUFHLVZRRGQRWQHHGHGLQWKHIRUHVWLQGXVWU\ZKHUHDV LQGXVWULDOVLGHÀRZVUHPDLQWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWVRXUFHVRIELRHQHUJ\LQWKHRWKHU VFHQDULRV%LRJDVDUDEOHHQHUJ\DQGZDVWHGHULYHGIXHOVDFFRXQWIRUDERXW¿YH SHUFHQWRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\DOWRJHWKHU )LJXUH

:RRGXVHLQDQGWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUFRQVWUXFWLRQDOWLPEHUDQG HQHUJ\ZRRGLQ

250

200

TWh

150

100

50

0 2006

A

Forest chips for energy By-products for energy Timber for energy Imported wood for industry Timber for industry

168

B

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Aspect/ scenario

A: Efficiency Revolution

B: Sustainable Daily Mile

C: Be Selfsufficient

D: Technology is the Key

Investments on market Moderate terms

Significant

Moderate

Highly significant

Public investments

Significant

Significant

Moderate

Highly significant

Public support, input or steering measures

Highly significant

Highly significant

Moderate

Highly significant

Employment

Highly significant

Highly significant

Moderate

Significant

Imports and exports

Significant

Significant

Very slight

Highly significant

Energy costs

Slight

Significant

Moderate

Highly significant

Security of supply

Good

Good

Excellent

Moderate

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7DEOH Scenario/ Variable Economy*

Regional and urban structure

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Transport

Economic structure Industry

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0RUHGHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHVFHQDULRV A: Efficiency Revolution At first, slower growth because of large investments; later, fast growth because of low energy costs. Regional structure concentrated towards 8–12 strong regional centres. Cohesive urban structure.

New residential buildings are zeroenergy houses; old buildings are renovated to be energy-efficient. Eco summer cottages.

B: Sustainable Daily Mile Fairly steady growth; purchasing power is freed from transport and housing costs to other expenditure. Decentralised regional structure, very cohesive urban structure. Service centres surrounded by efficiently built areas.

Living space per capita at the present level. Shared premises, wood, and new housing forms make the living environment more pleasant. Transport performance Transport performance has decreased, telework has fallen clearly and and distance services energy consumption have reduced the for transport is cut need to travel. Goods by half. Less need for transports at present goods transports. Daily level. Cars consume less trips within a radius of than half of the energy a kilometre mostly on they do now; biofuels foot or by bicycle. Public and electricity. Private transport and bicycle cars mostly in rural and pedestrian traffic areas, public transport between service centres. in and between urban Train as the principal areas. mode of transport between cities. A decreased share of Demand for mass industry. Manufacture consumption products of metals from virgin has decreased and materials and a forest been replaced by more industry dependent individual products and on purchased energy services. Renewal of have been replaced by industry, biorefineries, new products and new ICT, industries utilising knowledge industry recycled materials. (e.g. nano, bio, ICT). Ecological construction New ‘Nokias’ in climate and a planning are technology. Renovation export product. of buildings.

C: Be Self-sufficient Slow growth because of choices that reduce productivity.

Regional structure consisting of 20 strong regional centres. Dispersed urban structure, units as selfsufficient as possible.

More living space per capita. Vegetable patches and greenhouses in residential areas. Less need for summer cottages. Passenger transport performance at the present level, many transports in the forest industry. Passenger traffic in and between major cities largely by rail and hybrid biobuses. Cars run on electricity or domestic biofuels. Less international traffic.

Forest industry has become a bioindustry. Strong domestic food industry. Mechanical engineering, ICT. Energy self-sufficiency supported by new construction, renovation, and building with wood.

D: Technology is the Key First fairly rapid growth, then slower growth owing to energy and emission costs. Regional structure concentrated in Southern Finland. Compact cities surrounded by a dispersed structure. Fewer people living in rural areas. Clearly more living space per capita, second homes also common.

Passenger transport performance in passenger traffic increased, shift to electric cars. Increased transports for industry, partly by rail; transports to the Arctic Ocean. Public transport used to solve congestions. High-speed trains from Helsinki to Oulu and St. Petersburg. Energyefficient air transport. Industry’s share at the present level. Energyefficient knowledge industry (ICT, bio, nano etc.) in southern Finland, industries utilising natural resources (forest, metals, chemical) outside densely populated areas. CCS in the process industry. Construction of singlefamily houses.

Scenario/ Variable Services

Primary production

Energy Demand

Production**

Values and lifestyles

A: Efficiency Revolution Share increased clearly, especially leisure, cultural, health and well-being services. Extensive private service market. Lowcarbon consultation and immaterial innovations for exports. New service sectors.

B: Sustainable Daily Mile A sharp increase in neighbourhood services. Small schools, libraries and shops. Hypermarkets have disappeared. Logistics that minimises the transport demand; support services for business. Nutritional, fitness and well-being services. Rented summer cottages. Share of primary Share of primary production continues production declined to decline. More slightly. Local food a organic production in growing sector, more agriculture. Diminished, organic production. centralised meat production. Consumption halved, Consumption fallen by radical improvements one quarter. Industry’s in efficiency in all demand roughly at the sectors. Strong demand present level. Clearly response. Trigeneration less energy needed for (electricity, heating, transport and housing. refrigeration). Consumption electrified.

C: Be Self-sufficient

D: Technology is the Key More neighbourhood Moderate rise in the services. Consultation share of services. on decentralised energy Services that support solutions and energy industry in Finland efficiency for exports. and for exports. Many local SMEs and Construction of cooperatives. Domestic transport infrastructure. travel. Strong tourism especially in the north, trading and transport services.

Share risen slightly. Local and organic food, small-scale forestry and fishing as growing sectors. Local meat production.

Consumption fallen by one third. Homes produce their own energy in sparselypopulated areas and in new areas. Comsumption by households and trips abroad has fallen clearly. All energy produced Two thirds renewables, Energy produced with renewables; two fifths nuclear in Finland, four biomass and wind the power. Condenser water fifths renewables. most important sources. from nuclear power Decentralised smallInternational energy plants used for heating. scale production, new trade, e.g. wind power hydropower, bio-CHP. from the North Sea CCS-peat. Nuclear (supergrid). power for the needs of industry, share fallen. Telework has become Increased appreciation Self-sufficiency and more common, less for free time and locality. Manual skills travel to distant community spirit, life and proximity to nature locations. Trips to the at hand. Materialism in high regard. Telework outdoors, cycling, virtual and consumer culture has become more travel. Vegetarian discarded. common. Vegetables diets more common. and seasonal foods Appreciation for more common in the services, sustainability diet. and well-being.

Agriculture declined clearly. More mining, uranium mines. Forestry to meet the needs of industry. Synthetic meat.

Consumption at the present level. Increased consumption by industry and transport. Intelligent household appliances and electric cars even out demand peaks. Consumption electrified. Renewables three fifths. Steep increase in nuclear power (incl. fast-breeder reactors). Fossil fuels and peat in large CCS facilities. Electricity for exports. Waste incineration. Appreciation for efficiency, ease in daily life and quality. International outlook. Individualism, ecomaterialism.

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