Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice 2011/2012 Session 3
Benjamin HAMIDI Christophe BOUCHER
[email protected]
Part 3. Mean-Variance Portfolio Theory
3.1 Measuring Risk and Return 3.2 Asset Allocation with 2 Risky Assets 3.3 Introducing a Risk Free Asset and the Tobin’s Separation Theorem 3.4 Asset Allocation with N risky Assets 3.5 Portfolio Diversification
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Preamble: Mean/Variance Analysis Assumptions
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Mean-variance is simpler • Early researchers in finance, such as Markowitz and Sharpe, used just the mean and the variance of the return rate of an asset to describe it. • Characterizing the prospects of a gamble with its mean and variance is often easier than using an NM utility function, so it is popular. • But is it compatible with VNM theory? • The answer is yes … approximately … under some conditions.
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Mean-variance assumptions
• Investors maximise expected utility of end-of-period wealth • Can be shown that above implies maximise a function of expected portfolio returns and portfolio variance providing - Either utility is quadratic, or - Portfolio returns are normally distributed (and utility is concave), - Consider only small risks (then approximately true)
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Mean-variance: quadratic utility Suppose utility is quadratic, U(y) = ay–by2, with some conditions on a and b
E[U ( y )] = aE ( y ) − bE ( y 2 ) Expected utility is then
= aE ( y ) − b E ( y ) 2 + V ar( y ) .
Thus, expected utility is a function of:
the mean: E(y), and the variance: Var(y) BUT not intuitive Utility function : increasing ARA
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Mean-variance: joint normals • Suppose all lotteries in the domain have normally distributed prized. (They need not be independent of each other). • Any combination of such lotteries will also be normally distributed. • The normal distribution is completely described by its first two moments. • Therefore, the distribution of any combination of lotteries is also completely described by just the mean and the variance. • As a result, expected utility can be expressed as a function of just these two numbers as well.
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Mean-variance: small risks • The most relevant justification for mean-variance is probably the case of small risks. • If we consider only small risks, we may use a second order Taylor approximation of the NM utility function. • A second order Taylor approximation of a concave function is a quadratic function with a negative coefficient on the quadratic term. • In other words, any risk-averse NM utility function can locally be approximated with a quadratic function. • But the expectation of a quadratic utility function can be evaluated with the mean and variance. Thus, to evaluate small risks, mean and variance are enough.
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Mean-variance: small risks • Let f : R R be a smooth function. The Taylor approximation is
f ( x) ≈ f ( x0 ) + f '( x0 ) f '''( x0 )
( x − x0 )1
( x − x0 )3 3!
1!
+ f ''( x0 )
( x − x0 ) 2 2!
+
+L
•
So f(x) can approximately be evaluated by looking at the value of f at another point x0, and making a correction involving the first n derivatives.
•
We will use this idea to evaluate E[U(y)].
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Mean-variance: small risks • Consider first an additive risk, i.e. y = w+x where x is a zero mean random variable. • For small variance of x, E[U(y)] is close to U(w).
• •
• Consider the second order Taylor approximation, E( x2 ) E [U ( w + x) ] ≈ U ( w) + U '( w) E ( x) + U ''( w) 2 V ar( x) = U ( w) + U ''( w) . 2 Let c be the certainty equivalent, U(c)=E[U(w+x)]. For small variance of x, c is close to w, but let us look at the first order Taylor approximation.
U (c ) ≈ U ( w) + U '( w)(c − w) Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Mean-variance: small risks • Since E[U(w+x)] = U(c), this simplifies to
V ar( x) w − c ≈ A( w) 2 • w – c is the risk premium. • The risk premium is approximately a linear function of the variance of the additive risk, with the slope of the effect equal to half the coefficient of absolute risk.
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Example: Simple mean-variance utility function • Consider the simple Mean-Variance Utility function: U = E (RP ) − 1 A⋅σ 2 (RP ) 2 E (RP ) = xE (RM ) + (1− x)Rf 1 1 MaxU = Max E ( R ) − A ⋅σ 2 ( R ) = Max Rf + x E ( R ) − Rf − A ⋅ x2σ 2 ( R ) M x x x 2 P P M 2
⇒ E ( R ) − Rf M
⇒
x=
− 1 2 A⋅ xσ 2 (RM ) = 0 2
E (RM ) − Rf
Aσ 2 (RM )
Optimal position in the risky asset is inversely proportional to the level of risk aversion and the level of risk and directly proportional to the risk premium
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3.1 Measuring Risk and Return
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Risk and return of a 2-asset portfolio Returns of assets 1 and 2: Weight of asset1:
R1 , R2
x
Return of the portfolio:
Rp
E ( RP ) = E ( xR1 + (1 − x) R2 ) = xE ( R1 ) + (1 − x) E ( R2 )
[
V ( R ) = E ( R − E ( R )) σ ( R) = Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
2
] = E(R
2
) − ( E ( R ))
2
V ( R) 14
Risk and return of a 2-asset portfolio V ( R p ) = E ( RP ) − ( E ( RP )) = x V ( R1 ) + (1 − x ) V ( R2 ) + 2 x (1 − x )Cov ( R1 , R2 ) 2
2
2
2
V ( R p ) = x V ( R1 ) + (1 − x ) V ( R2 ) + 2 x (1 − x ) σ ( R1 ) σ ( R2 )Corr ( R1 , R2 ) 2
2
Cov ( R , R ) = E [ ( R − E ( R )( R − E ( R ) ] = E [ R × R 1
2
1
1
ρ=
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
2
2
1
2
] − E(R )E(R ) 1
2
Cov( R1 , R2 ) σ ( R1 )σ ( R2 )
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Minimum-variance portfolio
dV( RP ) =0 dx
⇔ 2 xV ( R1 ) + 2 xV ( R2 ) − 2V ( R2 ) + 2σ ( R1 )σ ( R2 )Corr ( R1 , R2 ) − 4 xσ ( R1 )σ ( R2 )Corr ( R1 , R2 ) = 0
x=
V ( R2 ) − σ ( R1 )σ ( R2 )Corr ( R1 , R2 ) V ( R1 ) + V ( R2 ) − 2σ ( R1 )σ ( R2 )Corr ( R1 , R2 )
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Example Consider 2 stocks, A and B: State
Probabilities
A
B
1 2 3 4
¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
0% 5% 15% 20%
30% 20% 0% -10%
E ( RA ) = 1 (0% + 5% +15% + 20%) = 10% = E ( RB ) 4 V ( RA ) = 1 (0%)2 + (5%)2 + (15%)2 + (20%)2 − 0,12 = 0.0063 4
V ( RB ) = 1 (30%)2 + (20%)2 + (0%)2 + (−10%)2 − 0.12 = 0.025 4
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Example (cnt’d) σ ( RA ) = 0,079 σ ( RB ) = 0,158 COV (RA , RB ) = 1 (0.00)(0.3) + (0.05)(0.2) + (0.15)(0.0) + (0.2)(−0.1) − 0.12 = −0.0125 4
Corr (RA, RB ) =
−0.0125 = −1 0.079x0.158
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Example (cnt’d) Risk and Return of the equally-weighted portfolio: x = 0,5 State
Probabilities
1/N Portfolio
1 2 3 4
¼ ¼ ¼ ¼
0,5 x 0% + 0,5 x 30% = 15% 12,5% 7,5% 5%
E ( RP ) = 0.1 V ( RP ) = 1 (15%)2 + (12.5%)2 + (7.5%)2 + (5%)2 − 0.12 = 0.0016 4
or V ( RP ) = (0.52 )(0.0063) + (0.52 )(0.025) + 2x0.5x0;5x(-1)(0.079)(0.158) = 0.0016
σ ( RP ) = 0.067
< σ ( RB ) < σ ( RA )
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
Diversification effect 19
Example (cnt’d) The minimum Variance portfolio: x=
V ( R2 ) − σ ( R1 )σ ( R2 )Corr ( R1 , R2 ) V ( R1 ) + V ( R2 ) − 2σ ( R1 )σ ( R2 )Corr ( R1 , R2 )
x=
0.025 − 0.079x0.158x(−1) =2 0.0063 + 0.025 − 2x0.079x0.158x(−1) 3
V ( RP ) = (0.672 )(0.0063) + (0.332 )(0.025) + 2x(0.67)x(0.33)x(-1)(0.079)(0.158) = 0
since
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
ρRA,RB = −1
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3.2 Asset Allocation with 2 Risky Assets
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Portfolio characteristics and correlations • Correlation (covariance) between 2 assets ⇒ Diversification gain
• General case: 18
(x < 0)
16
B Expected return
14
12
A
10
8
(x>100%)
6
4 2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
Standard error Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Portfolio characteristics and correlations (cnt’d) • Special cases: Corr ( R1 , R2 ) = 1
⇒
Corr ( R1 , R2 ) = −1
⇒
Corr ( R1 , R2 ) = 0
⇒
V ( R ) = [ xσ ( R ) + (1 − x ) σ ( R ) ]
2
p
1
V ( R ) = [ xσ ( R ) − (1 − x ) σ ( R ) ]
2
p
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
2
1
2
V ( R p ) = x V ( R1 ) + (1 − x ) V ( R2 ) 2
2
23
No diversification gain
Corr ( R1 , R2 ) = 1
Rendement espéré du portefeuille (%)
18 16
Expected return
14
B x=0
12 10
A x=1
8 6 4 3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
Standard error
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Full diversification gain Corr ( R1 , R2 ) = −1
Rendement espéré du portefeuille (%)
Expected return
16 15 14
B 13 12
C
11 10
A 9 8 0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00 4,00 5,00 Ecart type du portefeuille (%)
6,00
7,00
Standard error
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Partial diversification gain Corr ( R1 , R2 ) = 0
Rendement espéré du portefeuille (%)
Expected return
16 15 14
B 13 12 11 10
A 9 8 3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
5,50
6,00
6,50
7,00
Standard error
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Efficient portfolios of risky assets
Rendement espéré du portefeuille (%)
Expected return
16 15 14
B 13 12 11 10
A 9 8 3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
5,50
6,00
6,50
7,00
Standard error
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3.3 Introducing a Risk Free Asset and the Tobin’s Separation Theorem
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Introducing borrowing and lending: Risk free asset • You are now allowed to borrow and lend at the risk free rate Rf while still investing in any SINGLE ‘risky bundle’ on the efficient frontier. • For each SINGLE risky bundle, this gives a new set of risk return combination known as the ‘transformation line’. • The risk-return combination is a straight line (for each single risky bundle) - transformation line. • You can be anywhere you like on this line.
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The risk free asset • Consider a risk-free asset (e.g. T-bill rate)
Rf σRf = 0 Corr ( R1 , R f ) = 0
• Consider a portfolio with a risky asset 1 and a risk-free asset:
E ( RP ) = xE ( R1 ) + (1 − x) R f V ( RP ) = x ²V ( R1 )
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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The Capital Market Line • From the precedent mean and variance expressions, we obtain:
E ( RP ) = R f + x E ( R1 ) − R f x=
σ ( RP ) σ ( R1 )
• The Capital Market Line (CML): E ( RP ) = E ( R f ) +
intercept
E ( R1 ) − R f σ ( R1 )
σ ( RP )
Slope
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The Capital Market Line with one risky asset
18
Borrowing
Rendement espéré du portefeuille (%)
16 14
Expected return
12
R1 all wealth in risk-free asset
10
x>1
8
all wealth in risky asset
6 4
Lending
Rf
2 0 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Standard error
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The Capital Market Line with N risky assets - Best transformation line
Expected return
Transformation line 3 – best possible one
Rf
M Transformation line 2 Transformation line 1
A
Standard error Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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The Capital Market Line
Expected return
CML
M
Rf
Risk Premium E(RM) – Rf)
Standard error Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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The CML and the separation theorem
• The CML dominates all other possible portfolios • An agent invests along the CML (where ? ⇒ risk preferences) • James Tobin’s separation theorem: - Invest in a risky portfolio (optimal combination of risky securities) - Borrow-lend at the risk-free rate • Depending on your attitude toward risk: how much lend or borrow
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Optimal portfolio choice IB’’ IB’ IB
IA’’
CML
IA’ IA
Expected return
B M
A
Rf
Standard error
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From the CML to the SML CML:
E ( RM ) − Rf E ( RP ) = E ( R f ) + σ ( RP ) σ ( RM ) σ ( RP ) E ( RP ) = E ( R f ) + [ E ( RM ) − Rf ] σ ( RM ) E ( RP ) = E ( R f ) +
Note that: ρR , R = M p
Cov( RM , R p )
and since: ρRM , R p = 1
σ ( RM )σ ( R p )
E ( RP ) = E ( R f ) +
Security Market Line:
σ ( RP )σ ( RM ) [ E ( RM ) − Rf ] 2 σ ( RM )
Cov ( RM , R p ) σ ( RM )
2
[ E ( RM ) − Rf ]
E ( RP ) = R f + β [ E ( RM ) − Rf ]
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The Security Market Line (SML)
Expected return
SML
M
Risk Premium E(RM) – Rf)
Rf
0.5
1
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β 38
CML
Security 1
M
β=1 Security 2
Rf
β=0,5 β=0
σ
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
SML
Expected return
Expected return
CML vs SML
Security 1
M Security 2
Rf
0.5
1
2
β 39
CML vs SML
• The CML: combination the market portfolio and the riskless asset • Portfolios on the CML are efficient portfolios • Any portfolio on the CML has a correlation of 1 with the market portfolio • CML is applicable only to an investor’s efficient portfolio • SML is applicable to any security, asset or portfolio (CAPM World) • In the CML, risk is measured by σ • In the SML, risk is measured by β
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3.4 Asset Allocation with N risky Assets
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Efficient portfolios • Efficient portfolios are those that maximize the expected return for a given level of expected risk
• or minimize the risk for a given level of expected return
• Two kinds of efficient portfolios: - only risky assets - both risky assets and a riskless-asset (separation theorem)
• Suppose stable expected-returns and VCV matrix Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Some notations
E(R ) 1 E ( R2 ) R= M E ( RN )
X
x 1 x = 2 M xN
σ Lσ 1N 11 Ω = M (σij ) M σ N1Lσ NN
E ( RP ) = RT X = X T R
V ( RP ) = X T ΩX
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Efficient frontier with a riskless asset • Recall the transformation lines and CML: Maximise the slope
E ( RM ) − Rf Max Θ = σ ( RM )
N
xi = 1 ∑ i =1
u.c
N
set
Rf = ∑ xi Rf i =1
N
Max Θ =
xi ( Ri − R f ) ∑ i=1 N N
= X T ( R − Rf ) X T ΩX
∑∑ xi x jσij
−1/2
i=1 j =1
d Θ = ( R − R ) X T ΩX −1/2 + X T ( R − R ) (− 1 )2ΩX X T ΩX −3/2 = 0 f f 2 dX Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Efficient frontier with a riskless asset (cnt’d)
1/2
multiplying by
T X ΩX
(R − R f ) + X T (R − R f
Define (SR)
) (− 1 )2ΩX X T ΩX 2
λ = X T ( R − R f ) X T ΩX
−1
=0
−1
( R − R f ) − λΩX = 0
Define Z such that: λX = Z ( R − R f ) = ΩZ
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Efficient frontier with a riskless asset (cnt’d) R − R = Z σ + Z σ + ... + Z σ 1 N 1N 1 11 2 12 f R2 − R f = Z1σ21 + Z 2σ22 + ... + Z N σ2 N M R − R = Z σ + Z2σ N 2 + ... + Z N σ NN 1 N1 f N
Xi =
Zi N
Zi ∑ i =1
Since:
N
N
N
i =1
i =1
i =1
∑ X i λ = ∑ Z i ⇒ λ = ∑ Zi
Then we can calculate: E (RM ) and and the CML
E (RP ) = R f +
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
σ ( RM )
E (R1) − Rf σ ( RP ) σ (R1) 46
Efficient frontier with no riskless asset
Min 1 X T ΩX 2
u.c
T X R = E ( RP ) T X 1 = 1
£ = 1 X T ΩX + λ E ( RP ) − X T R + γ 1− X T 1 2 d £ = ΩX − λR − γ1 = 0 dX d £ = E(R ) − X T R = 0 dλ P d£ = 1− X T 1 = 0 dγ
X = Ω−1 λR + γ1
Eq. 1 Eq. 2 Eq. 3
Eq. 4 (from Eq. 1)
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Efficient frontier with no riskless asset (Cnt’d) RT X = RT Ω−1 λR + γ1 = E ( RP )
Eq. 5 (from Eq. 4 and 2)
1T X = 1T Ω−1 λR + γ1 = 1
Eq. 6 (from Eq. 4 and 3)
We define
It follows
A = 1T Ω−1R = RT Ω−11 B = RT Ω−1R C = 1T Ω−11 D = BC − A2 λ=
CE ( RP ) − A D
γ=
B − AE ( RP ) D
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Efficient frontier with no riskless asset (Cnt’d)
Recall: X = Ω−1 λR + γ1
It follows:
X = g + hE (RP )
with
−1 −1 g = BΩ 1 − AΩ R D −1 −1 h = CΩ R − AΩ 1 D
Analytic solution
Portfolio g represent the optimal weights of a portfolio with E( RP ) = 0 X = g +h
represents the optimal weights of a portfolio with E( RP ) =1
V ( RP ) = aE ( RP ) 2 + bE ( RP ) + c Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
Characterization of frontier portfolios
• The entire set of frontier portfolios can be generated by 2 efficient portfolios, e.g. g and g+h • A combination of efficient portfolios would be efficient too
⇒To find a efficient portfolio with E(R1) ⇒ Build a portfolio with 1− E(R1) of g and E(R1) of g+h ⇒ The structure of the portfolio is: 1− E(R1) g + E(R1)( g + h) = g + hE(R1)
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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3.5 Portfolio Diversification
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Diversification and Portfolio risk •
Market risk - Systematic or Nondiversifiable (Business cycle, geopolitics, etc.)
•
Firm-specific risk -
•
Diversifiable or nonsystematic (Firm specific factors: management, sector, loss of a patent , etc.)
Total risk = Systematic risk + idiosyncratic risk Can disappear with diversification
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Power of Diversification • As the number of assets (N) in the portfolio increases, the SD (total riskiness) falls • Assumptions: - All assets have the same variance : σi2 = σ2 - All assets have the same covariance : σij = ρ σ 2 - Invest equally in each asset (i.e. 1/N)
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Power of Diversification
• General formula for calculating the portfolio variance σ2p = Σ wi2 σi2 + ΣΣ wiwj σij • Formula with assumptions imposed σ2p = (1/N) σ2 + ((N-1)/N) ρσ2
• If N is large, (1/N) is small and ((N-1)/N) is close to 1. • Hence : σ2p ≈ ρ σ 2 • Portfolio risk is ‘covariance risk’.
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Standard error
Random selection of stocks
Diversifiable / idiosyncratic risk
Market / non-diversifiable risk 0
1
2 ...
20
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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No. of shares in portfolio
55
Portfolio risk as a function of number of securities
Source: BKM (2007) from Statman (1987)
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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Thank you for your attention…
See you next week
Financial Markets & Portfolio Choice – Christophe BOUCHER & Benjamin HAMIDI – 2011/2012
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