Epidemiologic Applications: Group-Based Developmental Trajectories
Sylvana Côté, Ph.D.
Applications of group-based trajectory method A. Topography of social development z B. ID predictors of trajectories z C. ID outcomes of trajectories z D. Model co-morbidity (co-occurrence) z
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Definition: Trajectory z
A developmental trajectory describes the course of a behaviour or characteristic as a function of age or time.
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Definition: Heterogeneity
Object or system consisting of multiple items having a large number of structural variations.
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When to use group-based trajectories? Hypotheses about developmental trajectories that are inherently categorical: Do certain types of people tend to have distinctive developmental trajectories?
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Methods Participants: • 3000 kindergarten children. • Representatives of Quebec children in 1986 • Repeated assessments of a behavior
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Hyperactivity Trajectories Boys 2,5
Impulsive 36.5%
2 1,5
35.8%
1
Girls
10.9%
0,5 0 6
7
8
9
10
11
12
16.9%
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Data before proc traj: 7 assessments per individual over 7 years
5
5
5
4.5 4
4 3
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Outputs of the analysis z
Probability of belonging to a trajectory group z Varies
z
from 0 to 1
Trajectory group assignement based on maximum posterior probability
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Trajectoires d’hyperactivité Garçons 3 2,5
Nicholas: P=0.7
2 1,5
Nicholas: P=0.1
1
Nicholas: P=0.2
0,5 0 6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Côté et al. (2002). Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry
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Trajectoires d’hyperactivité Garçons 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Côté et al. (2002). Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry
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Groups with distinct and opposite development Lev el of depres s ion
2
1
Time 1
Time 2
Tme 3
Time 4
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BMI
Body Mass Index Trajectories 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14
5.4%
41% 0,5
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
5
6
7
8
54.5%
Age (years)
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Pryor, Touchette, Genolini, Falissard, Tremblay, Côté.
Body Mass Index Trajectories 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14
BMI
Maternal Risk: Obese Smoking pregnancy Obesity Overweight
0,5
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
5
6
7
8
Age (years)
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Pryor, Touchette, Genolini, Falissard, Tremblay, Côté.
DEVELOPPEMENT DE L’AGGRESSION PHYSIQUE: 1.5 TO 17 YEARS N=2 223 ELDEQ
NIVEAU ATYPIQUE N=10 658 OBSERVABLEELNEJ TÔT
D’AGRESSION PHYSIQUE ÉLEVÉE = RARE N=1 000 DE NOVODEGEP =RARE 12
3
2,5
2,5 P h y sic a l a g g r e ssio n sc o r e
3
2 1,5 1 0,5
NORME= INHIBITION 10 DE L’AGRESSION
2
8
1,5
6
1
4
0,5 2
0
0
1.5
2.5
3.5
24.5
3
6.04
5
6
7
8
9
10
011 11
12
14
15
16
17 15
Côté et al. (2006). Journal Abnormal Child Psychology
A. TOPOGRAPHY Physical aggression between: 1.5 and 6 years N=2000
3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
6.0 16
Côté et al. (2006). Journal Abnormal Child Psychology
B. ID predictors of trajectories
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Sous quelles conditions les enfants peuvent-ils bénéficier de la fréquentation de la crèche? Milieu familiale?
Qualité de la garderie?
Conditions de la fréquentation?
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Protection by Child Care for High-Risk Children: Physical Aggression (N=1691) ELDEQ: N=1691 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0
High maternal education Low maternal education
Before 9 months
OR
7 7 . =2
at or after 9 months
Never
Age which child care was intiated Côté et al., 2007, Archives of general Psychiatry
Côté S.M. et al (2007). Archives of General Psychiatry.
Protection by Child Care for High-Risk Children: Physical Aggression (N=1691) ELDEQ: N=1691 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0
High maternal education Low maternal education
Before 9 months
5 = OR
at or after 9 months
Never
Age which child care was intiated Côté et al., 2007, Archives of general Psychiatry
Côté S.M. et al (2007). Archives of General Psychiatry.
C. Applications: Linking trajectories to outcomes
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Child Care services between 5 months and 4 ½ years 45
Number of hours/wk in Child-Care
40 35 30 25 20
High-Amount CCG (34.5%) 15
Moderate-Amount CCG (28,4)
10
Low-Amount CCG (37,1)
5 0 5
17
29
41
50
Child's Age in Months
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Child-care services reduce socioeconomic inequalities in school readiness
d=0.56
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Child-care services reduce socioeconomic inequalities in academic achievement
d=0.46
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Children who benefit the most are less likely to receive child care 45
Number of hours/wk in Child-Care
40 35 30
Low maternal education Family dysfunction Low family income
25 20
High-Amount CCG (34.5%) 15
Moderate-Amount CCG (28,4)
10
Low-Amount CCG (37,1)
5 0 5
17
29
41
50
Child's Age in Months
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Testing the impact of an experimental intervention
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Trajectories of physical violence 5.8% 14.2% 6.9% 16.4% 26.3%
32.2% 24.4%
Lacourse, E., Côté, S., Nagin, D. S., Vitaro, F., Brengden M., & Tremblay, R. E. (2002). A longitudinal-experimental design to test developmental theories of antisocial behavior. Development and Psychopathology, 14, 911-926.
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KINDERGARTEN INTERVENTION MODIFIED TRAJECTORIES OF VIOLENCE
Physical Aggression 0.35
Intervention group
0.30
Probabilities
Control group
Low risk group
0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Low 1
Low 2
Low rising
Low decline
Medium decline
High rising
Lacourse, E., Côté, S et al. (2002). Development and Psychopathology. 29
D. Applications: Modéliser la ‘co-morbidité’, la continuité hétérotypique versus homotypique
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Continuité hétérotypique (vs homotypique) Continuité d’un trait ou attribue qui soustend divers comportements. z Présume continuité mais avec des manifestations différentes selon l’âge et les contextes de vie. (autobus vs vélo) z
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L’agressivité physique: Frapper; donner des coups; se battre;
L’agressivité indirecte: répandre de fausses rumeurs; exclure d’autres enfants; dire du mal dans le dos des autres. 32
Age Differences Developmental Hypothesis (Bjorkqvist et al., 1992)
PHYSICAL
Î
Î Î Î
Î
INDIRECT
Early Childhood (preverbal) Middle Childhood Later Adolescence & Adulthood 33
Mean indirect aggression score
PRÉDICTORS OF JOINT TRAJECTORIES
Mean physical aggression score
3
3
2,5
2,5 2
2
1,5
1,5 1
1
0,5
0,5 0 2
4
6
8
Age in years
Low: 5% Moderate-Desister 43.8%
Low-Desister: 36.3% High: 14.5%
0 4
6
8
Ageinyears Low67.9%; Highrising: 32.01%
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Joint and conditional probabilities Table 3. Joint and Conditional Probabilities of Physical and Indirect Aggression. Type of Aggression
Indirect Aggression
Physical Aggression
Low
Low desisting
Moderate
High
Desisting Probabilities of Joint Trajectory Group Membership† Low
(1) 0.048
(3) 0.324
(5) 0.297
(7) 0.011
High rising
(2) 0.004
(4) 0.039
(6) 0.142
(8) 0.135
Probability of PA Conditional on IA Low
0.071
0.477
0.436
0.016
High rising
0.011
0.124
0.444
0.420
Probability of IA Conditional on PA Low
0.932
0.891
0.676
0.075
High rising
0.068
0.109
0.324
0.925 35
†
The numbers in parentheses indicate the trajectory group number
PRÉDICTORS OF JOINT TRAJECTORIES Mean indirect aggression score
Young3 mom 2,5 Poverty 2 Coerlciv Gir 1,5 e rpar a p e v i Coerc 1
Mean physical aggression score
3 2,5 2 1,5 1
0,5
0,5 0 2
4
6
8
Age in years
Low: 5% Moderate-Desister 43.8%
Low-Desister: 36.3% High: 14.5%
0 4
6
8
Ageinyears Low67.9%; Highrising: 32.01%
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E. Limits and notes of caution z z z z
Toujours corrélationnel Id du meilleur modèle Voir de l’hétérogénéité là ou il n’y en a pas? Les groupes distincts sont des sont estimations
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