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D o c u m e nt d e travai l / Worki ng Pape r N° 1

Agence Française de Développement

12 January 2005

A POVERTY FORECASTING TOOL A Case Study of Senegal Thierry LATREILLE* e-mail: [email protected]

DÉPARTEMENT DE LA RECHERCHE * I am grateful to Denis Cogneau and Anne-Sophie Robillard for support during the development of this work and to Sogue Diarisso for his assistance in obtaining the data and for our interesting discussions on the subject.

D o cum e n t d e trava il / Wor ki ng Pa pe r N° 1

Contents / Sommaire Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3 1