Chair Energy and Prosperity 1st International Conference Paris, 26th and 27th of April 2016

The Economics of Energy and Secular Stagnation

The current sluggish world economic growth has generated a much-animated debate on both the relevance and the rationale of the Secular Stagnation concept. Symptoms of the phenomenon can be found over the last 40 years in declining nominal and real interest rates (towards the Zero Lower Bound), low public and private investments and decreasing Labour Productivity (and Total Factor Productivity). Whereas the potential to generate new technological breakthrough likely to sustain growth is much discussed, the potential role of energy is mostly overlooked. This conference will shed light on the links between energy and growth and try to answer to what extend the persisting growth anaemia can relate to energy-related rationale. It will also investigate the impact of near-zero interest rates on finance institutions' business model, how such a situation can prove a catalyst to the financing of much-needed low carbon infrastructures and under which circumstances these investments could provide an exit option to the deflation risk.



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Venue: Paris, Ecole Normale Supérieure Program:

Ecole Normale Supérieure, conference room Jean Jaurès (29 rue d’Ulm, 75015 Paris) 26th of 15h00 Welcome Address and Introduction. Gaël Giraud, Chief Economist, April French Development Bank. 15h15Keynote Speaker: Michael Kumhof, Senior Research Advisor, Bank of 16h30 England. “Oil and the World Economy: Some Possible Futures” 16h45Charles Hall, University of Syracuse: “The interrelation among energy, 17h45 EROI and secular stagnation: an hypothesis” 17h45Jessica Lambert, University of Syracuse. 18h45 Ecole Normale Supérieure, conference room Dussane (45 rue d’Ulm, 75015 Paris) 27th of 09h00Mario Giampetro, Autonomous University of Barcelona: “Ponzi Scheme April 10h00 Economics: An Irresistible Attractor” 10h00Thomas Kuhn, University of Chemnitz: “Reconciling Schumpeter and 10h45 Georgescu-Roegen- Entropy in a Schumpeterian Model of Growth” 11h00Keynote Speaker: David Stern, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, 12h15 Australian National University. « Energy and Directed Technological Change: Lessons from Economic History » Lunch A buffet will be served for all participants break 14h00Carey King, University of Austin Texas: “Long-term Energy and Food Cost 15h00 trends and the Relation to U.S. Economic Complexity” 15h00Bernard Beaudrau, University of Laval Quebec, Canada: “The Economies 15h45 of Speed, KE = 1/2mv2 and the Productivity Slowdown” 16h30Tiago Domingos, IST, University of Lisbon: “Useful Exergy and Total 17h15 Factor Productivity Growth” Closing speech, Gaël Giraud 18h00Official inauguration of the academic chair “Energy and Prosperity” 19h00

Key Note Speakers: Michael Kumhof is Senior Research Advisor in the Research Hub of the Bank of England. He is responsible for co-leading this new unit, and for helping to formulate key parts of its research agenda. His previous position was Deputy Division Chief, Economic Modelling Division, IMF, where his responsibilities included the development of the IMF’s global DSGE simulation model. His main research interests are monetary reform, the role of banks in the macro-economy, the role of economic inequality in causing imbalances and crises, and the macroeconomic effects of fossil fuel depletion. Michael taught economics at Stanford University from 1998 to 2004. He worked in corporate banking for Barclays Bank from 1988 to 1993. His work has been published by AER, JME, AEJ Macro, JIE, JEDC, JMCB, EER, and Journal of Macroeconomics, among others. Dr. Kumhof is a citizen of Germany. David Stern is a Professor in the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University. He is an energy and environmental economist working on the role of energy in the economy and the drivers and mitigation of climate change. He is associated with the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, and the Energy Change Institute. He is also associate editor of Ecological Economics. He has been a Lead author taking part to IPCC Working Group III between 2010 and 2014. His latest grants include work on Discovery Project, Energy Efficiency Innovation, Diffusion and the Rebound Effect (Discovery Project 2016-2018, Australian Research Council) ; Energy Use and Economic Growth: A Long-run European Study (1870-2013) ( 20152018 Handelsbanken Research Foundation) ; Energy Transitions: Past Present and Future (Australian Research Council, Discovery Project). Professor Stern holds a Ph.D. in Geography from Boston University and a M.Sc. from the London School of Economics. Invited Professors: Bernard C. Beaudreau is Professor of Economics at Université Laval in Quebec City, Canada. His research interests include economic theory, energy, economic history, international trade, and behavioural economics. Tiago Domingos, M.Sc. in Physical Engineering (IST) and Ph.D. in Environmental Engineering (IST), is an assistant professor in Environment and Energy at IST, the engineering school of the University of Lisbon. His main areas of research are Ecological Economics and Ecological Modelling. His research aims at creating a theoretical, mathematical basis for sustainability assessment, integrating contributions from Ecology, Thermodynamics and Economics. He has most notably worked on DEB theory for the metabolism of organisms, the useful exergy approach to energy accounting, energy and economic

growth, carbon responsibility indicators, ecosystem services, comprehensive accounting and sustainable agriculture. He is the founder and CEO of Terraprima – Environmental Services, an IST Spin-off. Mario Giampietro is ICREA Research Professor at the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA) of the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Spain. He works on integrated assessment of sustainability issues using new concepts developed in complex systems theory. He has developed an innovative scientific approach called Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) integrating biophysical and socioeconomic variables across multiple scales, thus establishing a link between the metabolism of socio-economic systems and the potential constraints of the embedding natural environment. Recent research has focused on the nexus between land use, food, energy and water in relation to sustainable development goals. He has authored or co-authored over one hundred publications, including six books, in research themes such as multi-criteria analysis of sustainability; integrated assessment of scenarios and technological changes; alternative energy technologies; energetics; bioeconomics; urban metabolism; biocomplexity and sustainability; science for governance. http://www.icrea.cat/Web/ScientificStaff/Mario-giampietro-423 Contact address: [email protected] Charles A.S. Hall is Professor Emeritus of Biology and of Environmental Science at the State University of New York, College of Environmental Science, in Syracuse. He received his PhD from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill under Dr. H.T. Odum. His fields of interest are Systems Ecology, Energy and Biophysical Economics. Dr. Hall is author, coauthor or editor of twelve books and 280 articles, many of which have appeared in Science, Nature, BioScience, American Scientist and other premium journals. Dr. Hall is a systems ecologist: i.e. one focused on the application of integrative tools of science, including empirical simulation modeling, to the understanding and management of complex systems of nature and of people and nature. He is best known for his development of the concept of EROI, or energy return on investment, which is an examination of how organisms, including humans, invest energy into obtaining additional energy to improve biotic or social fitness. He has applied these approaches to fish migrations, carbon balance, tropical land use change, the extraction of petroleum and other fuels, and the national economies of the United States, Argentina and Costa Rica. Presently he is developing a new field, biophysical economics, as an alternative to conventional neoclassical economics, which uses EROI and systems approaches as applied to a broad series of resource and economic issues. His ultimate goal is to develop biophysical economics as an alternative to neoclassical economics, which he believes to be fatally flawed on many levels.

Dr. Carey W King performs interdisciplinary research related to how energy systems interact within the economy and environment as well as how our policy and social systems can make decisions and trade-offs among these often competing factors. The past performance of our energy systems is no guarantee of future returns, yet we must understand the development of past energy systems. Carey’s research goals centre on rigorous interpretations of the past to determine the most probable future energy pathways. Carey is Research Scientist at The University of Texas at Austin and Assistant Director at the Energy Institute. He also has appointments with the Centre for International Energy and Environmental Policy within the Jackson School of Geosciences and the McCombs School of Business. He has both a B.S. with high honours and Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Texas at Austin. He has published technical articles in the academic journals Environmental Science and Technology, Environmental Research Letters, Nature Geoscience, Energy Policy, Sustainability, and Ecology and Society. He has also written commentary for Earth magazine discussing energy, water, and economic interactions. Dr. King has several patents as former Director for Scientific Research of Uni-Pixel Displays, Inc. Thomas Kuhn Thomas Kuhn is a Professor of Economics at Chemnitz University of Technology. He graduated in Industrial Engineering from the University of Karlsruhe before moving to the University of Augsburg to become an assistant Professor and eventually get is habilitation in Economics (viena legendi) following a scholarship from the German Science Foundation. His publications include the following main area of research: public policies, fiscal instrument, economics and energy/environmental issues. Jessica Lambert J.G. Lambert is Co-Chair and CIO of Next Generation Energy Initiative, Inc. (NGEI). In addition to her work at NGEI, Ms. Lambert’s research focuses on resource availability trends and their effect on societal wellbeing. She is an active member of the Biophysical Economics community. From 2010 to 2012 Ms. Lambert was a Research Associate at the Paleontological Research Institute in Ithaca, NY where she performed and managed National Science Foundation (NSF) funded research on the anthropogenic effects observed in ecosystems affected by the 2010 Gulf Oil Spill. Prior to her appointment at NGEI, Ms. Lambert served as an intern for the White House Council on Environmental Quality's (CEQ) Land and Water team and as a White House Intern for the Office of Energy and Climate Change. *

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