Comparing early trade statistics: The case of Austrian Netherlands and France from 1759 to 1791 Loïc Charles, Ann Coenen and Guillaume Daudin
Introduction
• One of the assumed differences between economists and historians: historians actually care about sources
– As a member of an economics department, I will fight prejudices by engaging in source criticism – Still, I might also encourage prejudices by trying not to be hyper-critical
• We compare two trade sources ("Mirror flows"). What could go wrong? • Why would one want to do that? – Check their quality (someone must be the spoilsport) – Complete missing information – To be able (in another paper) to answer historical questions
• Caveats
– Contemporaneous mirror flows do not fit
• We should not expect 18th century data to fit better
– It would take a better man than me to decide to throw everything away – This is not a validation exercise, it is a heuristic exercise • It teaches us on the sources and their limits, not on whether they are «the truth»
• Outline:
– Presenting the data sources – Compare them in values – Compare them in quantities
Data sources in context • Network on 18th century trade data started by Loïc Charles and myself in 2009 – British sources are well known, but many other exists (Sund, Sweden, France, Belgium, Italian states...) – The larger context was explored in a 2015 special issue of Revue de l’OFCE (more than 30 authors, 5 papers, 23 questionnaires, available free online: http://www.ofce.sciencespo.fr/pdf/revue/140/revue-140.pdf)
• Austrian Netherlands – The theme’s of Ann Coenen PhD thesis on trade of the Austrian Netherlands (the data was first collected by Koen Dries).
• France : ANR Grant 2013-2017 : TOFLIT18 – http://toflit18.hypotheses.org/ – Building a datascape for data exploration (like the RICARDO one : http://ricardo.medialab.sciencespo.fr) – We have already collected c. 400,000 trade flows (often bilateral per product)
• The AN are not a big trade partner for France (around 4% of total trade) – Compared with 10-11% during the 19th and 20th century • (thanks http://ricardo.medialab.sciences-po.fr !)
– Interesting effect of wars (Cockpit during the WAS, ally during the 7YW and neutral during the WAI/4YW
Special issue of Revue de l’OFCE : Eighteenth-century international trade statistics, 2015 (available here : http://www.ofce.sciencespo.fr/pdf/revue/140/revue-140.pdf)
Balances of trade (≥ 10 years before 1800) Balances of trade (< 10 years) Detailed trade flows Some data Unknown Covered in this volume outside the missing countries section Not covered
IFlandre XFlandre Share of trade with Flandre in total French trade 1788
1786
1784
1782
1780
1778
1776
1774
1772
1770
1768
1766
1764
1762
1760
1758
1756
1754
1752
1750
1748
1746
1744
1742
1740
1738
1736
1734
1732
1730
1728
1726
1724
1722
1720
1718
1716
Livres tournois
60 000 000 12,0%
50 000 000 10,0%
40 000 000 8,0%
30 000 000 6,0%
20 000 000 4,0%
10 000 000 2,0%
0 0,0%
Comparing the data sources • Importance of the administrative context – 18th c. European governements regarded custom policy at the cornerstone of a mercantilist economic policy – A number produced regular information on trade – Did I mention our special issue?
• In the Austrian Netherlands, one main document: – Relevé Général (1759-1791) • Only quantities • Fully retranscribed • No trade partners – But departmental subtotals for 1774 (and other years for some goods)
• In France : various documents – Bilateral trade 1716-1780: “Tableau Général” bilateral values – Bilateral trade by products: Objet Général (1749-52, 54-61, 68-80, 82, 87 and 88) • Values + unit prices from 1771
– Local data: available (when it has survived) every year from 1718 to 1780 – «Résumé» : 1787-89 and 1797-1821. But no Austrian Netherlands at that point
E.g. in the 1770s, there are between 3700 and 4300 observations per year in «Objet Général»
France
Austrian Netherlands
Difficulties and preparation
• Difficulties
– Trade partners are not given for Austrian Netherlands • Maybe the 1774 geography can help ?
– Austrian Nethelands trade is only quantities • Use various price sources
– The taxonomy of goods (7000 for France, c. 2200 for the AN in each source) is different (and changes through time for the French source!) so a reconciliation is difficult
• Let us talk about goods
– In the AN case, the nomenclature of goods was more or less constant
• Very little orthographic normalization. “drap de castor” and “draps de castor” are probably the same thing, etc. : from 2194 to 2183 orthographic and 2143 simplification
– Much more difficult in the French case : no constant nomenclature neither between sources nor in each source
• For the trade with the AN, 6191 goods. Only 3900 after orthographic normalization and 3,084 after simplification • In total, we have 41,220 goods, 18,597 after orthographic normalization and 14,218 after simplification
– Wheat is an extreme example
• At least, different French sources are coherent
Vin ; de Bugiy Vin ; De Bugey Vin ; de Bugey Vin ; de Bretagne ; de Blaye Vin ; de Bretagne Vin ; de Bourgogne Macon vin de bourgogne et champagne Vins ; De France ; De Bourgogne en muid Vins de France ; De Bourgogne en bouteilles Vins ; De France ; De Bourgogne en Bouteilles Vin ; de Bourgogne ; en bouteilles Vins de France ; De Bourgogne Vins ; de France ; de Bourgogne Vins de Bourgogne Vins ; de Bourgogne Vin; de Bourgogne Vin de Bourgogne Vin de bourgogne vin de bourgogne Vin ; De Bourgogne Vin ; de Bourgogne Vin ; de Bougogne Vin de Bourg Vin de bourg Vin ; de Bourg Vin ; de bourg Vin; de Bordeaux; de Bourg Vin de Bordeaux de bourg Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de Bourg Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de bourg Vin ; Dan ; de Bourg Vin de Boubonne Vins de Bordeaux ordinaires Vins de Bordeaux fins en bouteilles Vins de Bordeaux fins Vins de France ; De Bordeaux en bouteilles Vins ; De France ; De Bordeaux en bouteilles
vin du Bugey vin de Bretagne de Blaye vin de Bretagne vin de Bourgogne Mâcon vin de Bourgogne et Champagne vin de France de Bourgogne en muid vin de France de Bourgogne en bouteilles vin de France de Bourgogne en Bouteilles vin de Bourgogne en bouteilles vin de France de Bourgogne
vin de Bourgogne
vin de Bougogne vin de Bourg
Vin de Bordeaux ; de ville
Vin de bordeaux de ville
Vin de Bordeaux de ville
vin de Bordeaux fin en bouteilles
vin de Bordeaux ordinaire
vin de Bourbonne
vin d'an de Bourg
vin de Bordeaux de Bourg
Vin de bordeaux ; de ville
Vin; de Bordeaux; de Ville
Vin ; de Bordeaux de ville
vin de France de Bordeaux de retour
vin de Bordeaux de ville
vin de France de Bordeaux en bouteilles
vin de Bordeaux fin
Vin ; de bordeaux de ville Vin ; de Bordeaux ; De ville Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de Ville Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de ville Vin ; de bordeaux ; de ville Vins ; De France ; De Bordeaux de retour Vin ; de Bordeaux ; du haut
vin de Bordeaux du haut
Vin; de Bordeaux; de haut Vin de Bordeaux de haut
vin de Bordeaux de Blaye
vin d'an de haut
vin de Bordeaux de haut
Vin de bordeaux de haut Vin de Bordeaux ; de haut Vin de bordeaux ; de haut Vin ; de Bordeaux ; De haut Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de Haut Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de haut Vin ; de bordeaux ; de haut Vin ; Dan ; de haut Vin; de Bordeaux; de Blaye Vin de Bordeaux de Blaye Vin ;de Bordeaux ; de Blaye
vin de bordeaux de Blaye
Vin ; de Bordeaux ;de Blaye Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de Bloye vin de France de Bordeaux au muid
vin de Bugey
vin de Bretagne
vin de Bretagne et vin de Blaye
vin de Bourgogne Mâcon
vin de Bourgogne en muid
vin de Bourgogne et vin de Champagne
vin de Bourgogne en bouteilles
vin de Bourgogne
vin de Bourg
vin de Bourbonne vin de Bordeaux ordinaire
vin de Bordeaux fin
vin de Bordeaux fin en bouteilles
vin de Bordeaux en bouteilles
vin de Bordeaux de ville
vin de Bordeaux de retour
vin de Bordeaux de haut
vin de Bordeaux de Blaye
vin de Bordeaux au muid
vin de Bordeaux
vin de Blaye
vin de Bergerac
vin de Béziers
vin de Benicarlo
vin de Bar
vin de Bar et de Liège et d'Hay...
vin de Bar et vin de Metz
vin de Bar-sur-aube
vin de Bar-sur-Aube
vin de Barcelone
vin de Barrois
vin de Bayonne
vin de Beaune
vin d'an de Blaye
vin de Bar
vin de Bar de Liège d'Hay etc.
vin de Bar et de Metz
vin de Bar-sur-aube
vin de Champagne de Bar-sur-Aube
vin d'Espagne de Barcelone
vin de Barcelone
vin idem de Barcelone
vin du Barrois
vin de Bayonne
vin de Beaune
vin de Bourgogne de Beaune
vin idem de Beaune
vin de Benicarlo
vin de Bergerac
vin de Béziers
vin de Blaye
subsistances vin de Bordeaux
boissons vin de Bordeaux
vin de France de Bordeaux
Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de Blaye Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de blaye Vin ; de Bordeaux ; de blaie Vin ; de bordeaux ; de Blaye Vins ; De France ; De Bordeaux au muid Vins de France ; De Bordeaux Vins ; de France ; de Bordeaux Vin de France ; De bordeaux Boissons ; vins de Bordeaux 1///Subsistances///Vins de Bordeaux 1///Subsistances///Vins de bordeaux Vin de braye Vin de Blaye Vin de blaye Vin ; de Blaye Vin ; de blaye Vin ; de Blave Vin ; Dan ; de Blaye vin de Bezier Vin ; de Bergerac Vin de Benicarlo Vin ; Idem ; de Beaume Vin; de Bourgogne; de Beaune Vin ; de Bourgogne ; De Beaune Vin ; de Bourgogne ; de Beaune Vin ; de Bourgogne ; de beaune Vin ; de Bourgogne ; de Beaume Vin ; de Beaune Vin; de Bayonne Vin de Bayonne Vin ; de Bayonne Vin ; de Baiuonne Vins du Barrois Vin; de Barrois Vin ; de Barroix Vin ; De Barrois Vin ; de Barrois Vin ; de barrois vin ; de Barrois Vin ; de Barois Vin ; Idem ; de Barcelonne Vin ; de Barcelonne Vin ; de Barcelone Vin ; d'Espagne : de Barcelonne Vin ; de Champagne ; de Bar sur aube Vin ; de Bar sur-aube Vin ; de Bar sur Aube Vin ; de Bar sur aube vin de Baar et de Metz vin de Baar, de Liège, d'Hay etc vin de Baar
vinaigre de bierre Vinaigre de bière Vinaigre ; de bierre Vins et autres boissons ; bierre Tonneaux à bière
tonneaux à bière
vin et autres boissons bière
vinaigre de bière
Levure de bierre
lie de bière
lie de bierre
Levure ; de Sierre
Bière nautique
Bière porter
Drague ; de bierre
Dragues ; de brasserie
Eau ; de plombiere
Eau ; plombiere
Petits fûts de bière
gobelets de Bierre
bière nautique
bière porter
drague de bière
drague de brasserie
eau de Plombières
eau Plombières
petits fûts de bière
gobelets de bière
jet de bière
jet et lie de bière
levure de bière
Levure ; de bierre jet et lie de bierre
Bierre ; fortes
bière forte
jet de bierre
Bierre, cidre et vinaigre
bière
bière de Liège d'Angleterre etc.
subsistances bière
bierze
comestibles bière
sorte de bière
bière aigre
bière blanche
subsistances bière cidre et vinaigre
bière commune du pays
bière anglaise
bière d'Angleterre
bière d'Hoegaarden
bière de Dantzig
bière de Hollande
bière de Hollande et d'Angleterre
bière de Liège
bière de Lübeck
biere de Lübeck
bière de Lübeck pour médecine
bière médecinale de Lübeck
bière dite juypenbier
bière dite lumay
bière en bouteille
bière en fûts
bière en muid
bière et cidre
boissons bière et cidre
cidre et bière
bière cidre et vinaigre
Bierre, cidre et vinaigne Cidre et bière Boissons ; bierre et cidre Bierre et cidre Bière et cidre Bières en muids Bière en fût Bières en bouteille bierre dite lumay bierre dite juypenbier Bierre ; médecinale ; de Lubek Biere ; de Luber ; pour médecine Bierre ; de Lubek Biere de Lubec Biere ; de Lubek bierre de liège buerre d'hollande et d'angleterre bierre d'Hollande bierre d'hollande Bière de Dantzig Bière (de Dantzig) bierre d'hougarde bierre d'Angleterre bierre d'angleterre Bière anglaise bierre commune du pays 1///Subsistances///Bière, cidre et vinaigre Bierre ; blanche Bierre ; aigre Sorte de bière Comestibles bière Comestibles ; bierre Comestibles ; bière Bierze 1///Subsistances///Bière bierre de liège, d'anglettere etc Bierres Bierre bierre Bière Biére Biere biere
vinaigre de bière vin et autres boissons bière
lie de bière
tonneau à bière
levure de bière
jet de bière
jet et lie de bière
gobelets de bière
eau Plombières
futaille petite de bière
eau de Plombières
bière porter
drague de bière
bière forte
bière nautique
bière et cidre et vinaigre
bière et cidre
bière en fût
bière en muid
bière dite lumay
bière en bouteille
bière dite juypenbier bière de Lubek pour médecine
bière de Lubek bière de Liège
bière de Hollande
bière de Hollande et d'Angleterre
bière de Dantzig bière d'Hougarde bière d'Angleterre
bière cidre et vinaigre
bière commune du pays
bière aigre
bière blanche
bière
Using prices (1) • Reminder : the AN sources are in quantities and the French sources in value (sometimes in quantity too) – We can use various price sources (mainly from Amsterdam) to convert the AN sources in tons of silver
• Two important French exports where the AN are mainly importers : wine and sugar
– Trade flows are comparable (AN exports are very small) • We expect errors in transcription and prices
– During the 7YW and the 4YW (1779-1783), for sugar
• French stop exporting sugar (of course) and the entrepôt switches to the AN • The French declare more imports from AN than AN declares exports to the world – Maybe AN is a false origin to mask British exports ?
– Very small correlation
• That suggests short-term variations are not reliable
Using prices (2) • Coal is a strange case – Comparable numbers, yet the French source seems to overestimate AN imports • Especially as Liège is not in the AN and a competing provider • But actually, we are missing a price for important AN imports (terre de houille)
– AN exports seem better tracked • Intra-industry trade is actually geographically differentiated
• Linen : Both are important linen producers. Hence, AN trade in linen is probably not conducted with France • Silk : AN imports are comparable in both sources. Its exports are probably not to France either
Using quantities (1) • Only 10% of the AN trade flows can be associated to prices – + 17% in guilders – Still, a shame not to use 75% of the database – Especially as 31% of trade flows in pounds and 24% in pieces
• Comparing quantities – We define 21 categories (SITC-based) – In these categories, we drop units representing less than 15% of trade flows – If 2 or more units are left, we keep them only if their correlation is higher than 50% – And then we compare with the French data
0 European foodstuff and a live animals 0 Exotic foodstuff b 1 Drinks and tobacco 2
Crude materials, inedible, except fuels
3 Fuels 4 Oils 5 Chemical products 6 Leather products a 6 Wood produuts b 6 Paper products c 6 Linen products d 6 Wool products e 6 Silk products f 6 Coton products g 6 Other mixed cloths h 6 Other mixed textiles i
Using quantities (2) • Cotton product – Both sources (import and export) point to strong rise of the trade – French import were probably underestimated
• Other mixed textiles – Both source indicate a big outlier c. 1760 (effect of 7YW ?)
• Other goods are more difficult to interpret – But they seem to agree that something is happening to French statistics in 1782 • The 4YW again • Too bad we do not have 1781
Conclusion • Other ways to check the data – Use the geography to identify AN’s partners – Find more prices
• What can we say for the time being ? – Certainly, some aspects of the data look the same • Some others do not…
– Plausible stories can be told • But then researchers’imagination is infinite !
• Can that help us? – Points to «strange» aspects of the data – Helps to be modest with interpretation – And what do you think of the data quality ?
• We have created a specific nomenclature for that:
– Colonial goods:Sugar, tobacco, indigo, coffee, cacao – Textiles:, silk fabrics, broadcloth, linen, lace, cotton cloth, raw wool – “Local” products: French wine, coal
• We use the French wine trade to allocate Belgian departments to French trade in 1774 – Should be refined by using more goods – And allowing something else than “all with France” and “none with France”
• Threshold at 65%? We should expect time-series links for: – Wine (of course) and coal : both work rather well – The other ones do not work very well • Sugar, cacao, tobacco exports • Silk and broadcloath imports • War? Smuggling? Misreporting of the partner?
Using wine statistics
Amount of trade going through the selected departements in 1774 Product
Percentage of total imports
Percentage of total exports
Coal
65%
79%
White cotton
28%
37%
Printed cotton
17%
79%
Lace
37%
64%
Linen cloth
16%
37%
Crude wool
9%
57%
Broadcloth
70%
15%
Silk fabrics
70%
6%
Indigo
60%
16%
Coffee
17%
26%
6%
93%
Cocoa
19%
97%
Sugar
13%
79%
Tobacco
Revealed comparative advantage • Another classification for another question
– Importance of comparison: use a well-documented classification? – Modified to take into account questions around the IR
• What are the industrial specialization in Europe at the very early stages of the Industrial Revolution? – Using Revealed Comparative Advantage – Using England / Britain as a yardstick
• Standard International Trade Classification
– Created in 1951 to replace both the Brussels Convention (1913) and the League of Nation classifications (1938) – Supposed to reflect: • • • • •
The materials used in production The processing stage Market practices and uses of the products The importance of the commodities in terms of world trade Technological changes
SITC Code
SITC description
0
Food
Adapted to 18th century
0a
European
0b
Colonial
1
Beverage and tobacco
2
Crude materials, inedible, except fuels
3
Minearl fuels, lubricants, and related materials
4
Animal and vegetable oils and fats
5
Chemicals
6
Manufactured goods, classified chiefly by material
Not otherwise classified
6a
Out of linen
6b
Out of wool
6c
Out of silk
6d
Out of cotton
7
Machinery and transport equipment
8
Miscellaneous manufactured articles
9
Miscellaneous transactions and commodities, NES
Revealed Comparative advantages (RCA) • Indicator for comparative advantage (i.e. sectoral balance corrected for the global balance): – Three countries: Austrian Netherlands, England/Britain and France – Some bilateral computation too
• Goods aggregated according to 1 digit SITC, rev. 1, plus some detailed categories for textiles and colonial goods • Tells us about the relative pace and nature of the economic development in these three countries – Is it possible to detect an evolution towards industrialisation as early as the 1780s?
• Interpretation issues
– Depends on trade policies – And on domestic consumption
RCAindu.i,year.t
100 (Xt − M t )∗(Xi + M i ) =( )∗[(Xi − M i ) − ] Xt + M t (Xt + M t )
England/Britain (1696-1796)
• Crisis of the wool industry • More action in metal wares then in cotton
– (Crafts/Temin debate ?) (Or importance of domestic production?)
• A mutating industrialized nation?
France (1752-1787)
• Importer of raw material and exporter of drinks + industrialized goods? – (though the 1787 figures are suspect) – Not very specialized (well, it was a big economy)
• On the whole, the trading pattern of a “mature” industrialized nation
Austrian Netherlands (1759-1791)
• Rise of linen proto-industry • Decline of agricultural exports • A very specialized, industrializing nation
Conclusion • What have we done?
– Asked the question: why and how shall we compare trade statistics? • Larger project of compiling 18th century trade statistics – Example France-Austrian Netherlands
– Why
• Validating trade statistics • Answering historical questions
– How
• Importance of having an appropriate trade classification
• So?
– The data are not trivial to compare
• Which is not surprising: the discrepancy in mirror trade flows is still important
– It gives us interesting information on the sectoral strengths of these countries
• Mutating, “mature” or specialized: industrialization in any sector is good for the Industrial Revolution ? • France might be a good mirror: which is good, because we need more data points
– Nomenclatures should be flexible, multi-criteria and portable
Comparing data sources (1) • French bureau of the balance of trade – – – – – –
Small department in the French central administration Active from 1713 to 1792 Produced nearly complete bilateral trade data from 1716 to 1791 Synthetic document: Objet général du commerce de la France Give prices, partners for imports and exports in the synthetic document Very partially retranscribed and coded (9 years)
• Bureau of the balance of trade of Austrian Netherlands – – – –
Significant department in the regional administration of Austrian Flanders Active from 1759 to 1792 Produced external trade statistics from 1759 to 1789 Synthetic document: Relevé général des Marchandises, Manufactures et Denrées entrées et sorties par les XXI departemens des Pays-bas Autrichiens – No prices, no partners but they can be retrieved from the local data – All retranscribed, including local data for 1774
Austrian Netherlands: the case of cotton
• Suggestion that in terms of cotton, something was going on in the Austrian Netherlands, already at the end of the 1780s
Franco-Belgium RCA
• Confirms the mono-specialization of Belgium • The French product mix is more diverse (primary and secondary)
– Because France is not very specialized, it is a good “mirror” for the other countries
