MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
PQ up in final Quebec poll; headed for comfortable majority Toronto, September 3rd, 2012 – In the final sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among Quebec voters before they go to the polls, more than one third will vote PQ (36%), giving the party an ample lead over the second place Liberals at 29%. One quarter will vote for Francois Legault's CAQ (25%), one fifth (6%) will vote QS, and one fiftieth will either vote Green or ON (2% each). The provincial Liberals had the most support among older participants, those with annual household incomes below $20K (34%), and non-francophones (67%). The PQ, on the other hand, had the most support among those aged 55 to 64 (39%), females (39%), francophones (38%), and those living outside Quebec City, while support was low among those with annual household incomes above $100K (29%). The CAQ had the least support among Quebeckers 65 years and older (20%), but higher support among males (28%), respondents with annual household incomes exceeding $100K (34%), francophones (26%), and residents of Quebec City (32%). These voting intention results—if they hold on Election Day – would see the PQ capture a comfortable majority of 72 seats in the 125 seat National Assembly, to the Liberals' 38. The CAQ would take 13 seats, and QS and ON would each take one seat.
Voter enthusiasm high among PQ, Liberals Both PQ voters and Liberal voters are enthusiastic about voting their parties (59% and 57% very enthusiastic, respectively), while CAQ supporters are somewhat less so (47% very enthusiastic). "Apparently Quebeckers have decided to stop flirting with the fringes and make their choice of one of the two parties that can actually win this election, and it looks like that's the PQ," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
1
TORONTO Sep 3rd, 2012 HIGHLIGHTS: • More than one third will vote PQ (36%), giving the party an ample lead over the second place Liberals at 29%. • These voting intention results—if they hold on Election Day – would see the PQ capture a comfortable majority of 72 seats in the 125 seat National Assembly, to the Liberals' 38. • "Apparently Quebeckers have decided to stop flirting with the fringes and make their choice of one of the two parties that can actually win this election, and it looks like that's the PQ," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Methodology The Forum Poll™ was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 2,781 randomly selected residents of Quebec aged 18 or older. The poll was conducted on September 3rd, 2012.
TORONTO Sep 3rd, 2012
Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 1.86%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp. Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll™ and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp.
2
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Provincial Election Voting Preference Trending
50%
TORONTO
40%
Sep 3rd, 2012
30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 23-Feb- 21-Mar- 10-AprElection 12 12 12
27 to 28 24-Apr- 15-May- 17-May- 01-Aug- 07-Aug- 13-Aug- 20-Aug03-Sep/08/201 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 2
PQ
35%
39%
41%
39%
35%
33%
33%
39%
34%
35%
29%
33%
36%
Liberal
42%
30%
29%
34%
35%
35%
34%
38%
32%
32%
35%
28%
29%
19%
19%
18%
16%
19%
18%
14%
24%
24%
24%
27%
25%
6%
8%
6%
8%
10%
10%
4%
6%
6%
9%
8%
6%
5%
4%
4%
6%
3%
4%
3%
3%
3%
CAQ QS
4%
ADQ
16%
Green
2%
ON Other
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
2%
2%
1%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
Provincial Election Voting Preference Trending
%
PQ
Liberal
CAQ
QS
ADQ
Green
ON
Other
September 3 , 2012 (n=2703) th th August 27 to 28 , 2012 (n=2542) th August 20 , 2012 (n=1540) August 13th, 2012 (n=1563) August 7th, 2012 (n=1542) st August 1 , 2012 (n=1509) th May 17 , 2012 (n=1269) th May 15 , 2012 (n=2164) April 24th, 2012 (n=918) April 10th, 2012 (n=1493) March 21st, 2012 (n=1518) February 23rd, 2012 (n=1519) 2008 Election
36 33 29 35 34 39 33 33 35 39 41 39 35
29 28 35 31 32 38 34 35 35 34 29 30 42
25 27 24 25 24 14 18 19 16 18 19 19 -
6 8 9 6 6 4 10 10 8 6 8 6 4
16
2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 6 4 4 5 2
2 2 1 -
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
rd
3
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Seat Distribution
%
PQ
Liberal
CAQ
QS
ADQ
ON
Sep 3 , 2012 th th Aug 27 - 28 , 2012 th Aug 20 , 2012 th Aug 13 , 2012 th Aug 7 , 2012 st Aug 1 , 2012 th May 17 , 2012 th May 15 , 2012 Apr 24th, 2012 Apr10th, 2012 Mar 21st, 2012 Feb 23rd, 2012 Current Distribution 2008 Election
72 67 46 68 65 65 60 55 66 69 85 77 44 51
38 37 63 42 46 54 57 60 50 50 30 37 64 66
13 19 11 14 13 5 7 8 7 5 9 10 9 -
1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
7
1 1 1 1 -
rd
4
TORONTO Sep 3rd, 2012
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Provincial Election Voting Preference ‘In Tuesday’s Quebec provincial election, which party are you most likely to vote for?’ + ‘Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time?’
TORONTO Sep 3rd, 2012
[Decided / Leaning] Age / Gender
%
2703 29 36
1834 448 21 37
3544 462 24 31
4554 539 27 37
5564 686 29 39
25
23
33
27
6 2 2 0
10 4 4 1
8 1 2 0
8 1 1 0
Total
Sample Liberal Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other
65+
Male
Female
568 42 32
1195 30 32
1508 27 39
25
20
28
22
4 1 1 1
3 2 1 0
5 2 2 0
7 2 2 0
Region / Language
1035 28
N Shore 477 31
S Shore 558 26
2248 26
NonFrancophone 455 67
28
38
38
38
38
7
24
32
24
22
27
26
16
6
8
4
6
5
6
7
4
2
2
0
2
2
1
1
4
2
2
3
1
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
%
Total
Mon
QC
ROQ
Sample Liberal Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other
2703 29
1321 28
347 32
36
36
25
5
Francophone
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Household Income
313 34 38
$2040K 546 29 36
$4060K 467 28 40
$6080K 413 26 37
$80100K 257 25 34
25
15
23
22
28
31
34
6 2 2 0
6 3 3 1
8 2 2 1
7 2 1 0
6 1 2 0
5 1 3 0
5 1 2 0
%
Total
