JOHN BEATTY Title: "Rethinking the Importance of Chance
of evolutionary outcomes: "I call this experiment 'replaying life's tape.' You press the rewind button and, making sure you thoroughly erase everything that.
JOHN BEATTY Title: "Rethinking the Importance of Chance Variation" Abstract: In his 1989 book, Wonderful Life, Stephen Gould offered the following thought experiment in order to express what he took to be the highly contingent nature of evolutionary outcomes: "I call this experiment 'replaying life’s tape.' You press the rewind button and, making sure you thoroughly erase everything that actually happened, go back to any time and place in the past. . . . Then let the tape run again and see if the repetition looks at all like the original." His expectation was that, “any replay of the tape would lead evolution down a pathway radically different from the road actually taken." I will focus here on one particular source of contingency, namely, chance variation and the order in which it appears. Gould’s emphasis on contingency was part of his case against the all-importance of natural selection. And my paper is also in part about how chance variation—as a source of contingency—undercuts the all-importance of selection. I will present a somewhat (perhaps overly?!) panoramic view of these issues, from Darwin's (changing) outlook, through the evolutionary synthesis, up to the present.
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