International Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035
Center for Strategic and International Studies May 25, 2010 Washington, DC Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator
Non-OECD countries account for 86% of the increase in global energy use energy consumption quadrillion Btu 800
739 687
Non-OECD OECD
639 590
600
543 62%
495 400 50% 200
38%
50% 0 2007
2015
2020
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
2
Renewables are the fastest growing energy source (but from a relatively small base) world primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Projections
History
250
Liquids (including biofuels)
200
30% 28%
35% 22%
Coal
150 27%
100
Natural gas Renewables (excluding biofuels)
23%
Share of world total 14%
10%
50
6%
Nuclear
5%
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
3
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend average annual change (2007-2035) percent per year 6
GDP Population Energy use per GDP
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 United States
OECD Europe
Japan
South Korea
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
China
India
Brazil
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
4
The IEO reflects uncertainty in oil prices through a wide set of price cases light, sweet crude oil price 2008 dollars per barrel History
225
Projections
$210
200 High Oil Price case
175 150
Reference case
$133
125 100 75
$51
50 Low Oil Price case 25 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
5
OPEC producers maintain an approximate 40% share of total liquids production in the Reference case liquids production million barrel per day History
120
Projections 111
100
Total
85 80 60
48
52
Non-OPEC conventional
45
40 OPEC conventional
34 20
Unconventional
3 0 1990
1995
2000
2005
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2010
2015
2020
13
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
6
Growth in OPEC production of conventional liquids comes primarily from Saudi Arabia and Iraq conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2007
2020
2035
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
Other Middle East OPEC
Africa
South America
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
7
Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan, and U.S. lead increases in nonOPEC conventional supplies conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2007
2020
2035
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Russia
United States
Brazil
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
Kazakhstan
OECD Europe
Mexico
Canada
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
8
Canadian oil sands and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in total unconventional liquids unconventional liquids production million barrels per day 6 5 2007
2020
2035
4 3 2 1 0 Oil sands/ bitumen
Biofuels
Extra-heavy oil
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
Coal-toliquids
Gas-to-liquids
Shale oil
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
9
The high oil price case assumes much lower production from key oil exporters liquids production in 2035 million barrels per day
45
Reference case
High Oil Price case
OPEC
42
Non-OPEC
39
40 35 30 25
22
20 15
15
15
13
11
9
10
6
5
4
4 3
Iraq
Iran
7
6
5
6
0 Saudi Arabia
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
Other OPEC
Russia
Brazil
China
Other NonOPEC
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
10
Non-OECD Asia accounts for 35% of increased natural gas use natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet 160 136
140 120
145
150
156 Non-OECD Asia
125 Middle East 108
100
Other OECD
80
Central/South America
60 Africa
40 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
20
US
0 2007
2015
2020
2025
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
11
The Middle East accounts for almost one-third the increase in global gas production Percent Change 2007-2035 Other OECD
-9%
Australia/New Zealand
164%
United States
22%
Central and South America
101%
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
21%
Africa
104%
Non-OECD Asia
75% 125%
Middle East -4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
natural gas production trillion cubic feet Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
12
Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane drive supply growth in China, Canada, and the U.S natural gas production trillion cubic feet 25
20 Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane
15
10
5 All other gas
0 2007 2035 China
2007 2035 Canada
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2007 2035 United States
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
13
Virtually all growth in global coal use occurs in non-OECD Asian nations, especially China and India world coal consumption quadrillion Btu History
160
Projections
140 120 Non-OECD Asia 100 80 60 Rest of the world
40 20
North America
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
14
Renewables are fastest growing, but coal still fuels the largest share of the world’s electricity in 2035 world electricity generation trillion kilowatt hours 40 Liquids Hydroelectricity
Nuclear Natural gas
Other renewables Coal
30 43%
20 19%
42%
15%
10
21% 16% 2% 14% 5%
0 2007
7% 13% 2% 2015
2020
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
15
Non-OECD transportation fuel use surpasses almost flat OECD fuel use by 2025 transportation sector energy consumption quadrillion Btu 100 History
Projections Non-OECD
80
60 OECD 40
20
0 2005
2010
2015
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
16
Freight energy use increases faster than passenger energy use transportation energy consumption quadrillion Btu OECD
80
Non-OECD
70 60 50 Freight 40 30 20 Passenger 10 0 2007
2020
2035
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2007
2020
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
17
Assuming no policy changes, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grow 43% from 2007 to 2035 energy CO2 emissions billion metric tons 45
42 39
Non-OECD OECD
40
36 34
35
32
30
67%
30 25
53%
20 15 10 47%
43%
5 0 2007
2015
2020
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
2025
2030
2035
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
18
Key trends from 2007 to 2035 • In the IEO2010 Reference case, global marketed energy consumption grows by 49 percent – Most of this growth occurs in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East
• With no policy changes that would limit their use, fossil fuels provide nearly 80 percent of world energy consumption in 2035 – Petroleum liquids remain the world’s single largest energy source even as their share of total energy use declines – Renewable energy gains a growing share of total energy use, as its absolute growth in use from 2007 to 2035, outstrips that of petroleum liquids despite starting from a much lower level
• Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 30 billion metric tons in 2007 to 42 billion metric tons in 2035 under current laws and policies • Meeting the projected increase in world liquids demand will require increases in conventional and unconventional supplies of 25.8 million barrels per day – Oil prices reach $133 per day in 2035 (real 2008 dollars per barrel) Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
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Key Trends from 2007 to 2035 (continued) • Natural gas consumption increases 44% – Developing Asia accounts for 35% of the increase in world consumption – The Middle East accounts for 32% of the increase in production
• Coal use grows 56% – China and India alone account for 85% of the increase
• Nuclear power generation increases 74% • Total renewable energy use, including liquid biofuels, grows 111%
Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
20
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[email protected] Howard Gruenspecht, CSIS, May 25, 2010
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