KEY GRAPHS

© OECD/IEA - 2009

Mtoe

World primary energy demand by fuel in the Reference Scenario

18 000

Other renewables

16 000

Biomass

14 000

Hydro

12 000

Nuclear

10 000 8 000

Gas

6 000

Oil

4 000

Coal

2 000 0 1980

WEO-2008 total 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Global demand grows by 40% between 2007 and 2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms © OECD/IEA - 2009

Net oil import dependence in main importing countries/regions in the Reference Scenario 2008

India

2030

European Union OECD Pacific China ASEAN United States 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Net imports as share of total demand

Import dependence falls in the United States & OECD Pacific, but increases in all other importing regions – most markedly in Asia © OECD/IEA - 2009

Number of people without access to electricity in the Reference Scenario (millions)

1.3 billion people – or 16% of the world’s population – still lack access to electricity in 2030, despite more widespread prosperity & more advanced technology © OECD/IEA - 2009

Gt

World abatement of energyenergy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Scenario

42

Reference Scenario

Abatement

Investment

(Mt CO2)

($2008 billion)

2020

2030

20102020

20212030

Efficiency

2 517

7 880

1 999

5 586

36

End-use

2 284

7 145

1 933

5 551

34

Power plants

233

735

66

35

680

2 741

527

2 260

40 38

32

Renewables

30

Biofuels

57

429

27

378

Nuclear

493

1 380

125

491

CCS

102

1 410

56

646

28 26 2007 2010

450 Scenario 2015

2020

2025

2030

Efficiency measures account for two-thirds of the 3.8 Gt of abatement in 2020, with renewables contributing close to one-fifth © OECD/IEA - 2009

Mtoe

World primary energy demand by fuel in the 450 Scenario

4 500 4 000

36% 32%

3 500

28%

3 000

24%

2 500

20%

2 000

16%

1 500

12%

1 000

8%

500

4%

0 1990

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables Share of zero-carbon fuels (right axis)

0% 2000

2010

2020

2030

In the 450 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 2020, and by 2030 zero-carbon fuels make up a third of the world's primary sources of energy demand © OECD/IEA - 2009

Billionn dollars (2008)

World additional investment in the 450 Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario

1 200

Industry

1 000

Power plants

800

Buildings

600

Biofuels

400

Transport

200 0 2015

2020

2025

2030

$10.5 trillion of additional investment is needed in the 450 Scenario in the period 2010-2030 compared with the Reference Scenario, costing 0.5% of GDP in 2020 & 1.1% of GDP in 2030 © OECD/IEA - 2009

Ultimately recoverable conventional natural gas resources by region, endend-2008

Remaining recoverable resources

E. Europe/Eurasia Middle East North America

Cumulative production, fl i and flaring d venting i

A i P ifi Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Latin America 0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175 tcm

Only 14% of ultimately recoverable conventional resources have been extracted so far, with remaining resources equal to almost 130 years of production at current rates © OECD/IEA - 2009

bcm

Natural gas inter inter--regional transportation capacity

800

73%

700 600 500

Unutilised LNG liquefaction & pipeline capacity LNG trade

88%

Pipeline trade

400

% Capacity utilisation rate

300 200 100 0 2007

2015

A sizable glut of gas is looming – approaching 200 bcm by 2015 – as a result of weaker than expected demand growth & a wave of new capacity additions © OECD/IEA - 2009

tcm

World natural gas production by field vintage in the Reference Scenario

5

100%

Post-2008 fields

4

80%

Pre-2008 fields

3

60%

Share from new fields (right axis)

2

40%

1

20%

0

0% 2007

2015

2020

2025

2030

Additional capacity of around 2 700 bcm, or 4 times current Russian capacity, is needed by 2030 – half to offset decline at existing fields & half to meet the increase in demand © OECD/IEA - 2009