Financial Analysis Section 8. Writing a Financial Analysis Report An example of analysis grid Guidance Notes Golden Rules Limitations of Financial Ratios
Carlsberg Case Study Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Illiquidity risk: short and longlong-term ratios Summary Note Fahmi Ben Abdelkader © ESCP, Paris Fall 2013
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Chapter Outline Writing a Financial Analysis Report An example of analysis grid Guidance Notes Golden Rules Limitations of Financial Ratios
Carlsberg Case Study Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Illiquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Writing a Financial Analysis Report
An example of analysis grid Guidance Notes Golden Rules Limitations of Financial Ratios
How to conduct a financial analysis? A guiding principle In the long run, a company can survive only if it creates value for its shareholders and meets its commitments towards all its stakeholders To do so, it must:
Financial Analysis
Generate wealth Growth Analysis
Invest Finance its investments Generate a sufficient return Anticipate and manage illiquidity risk
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Financial Statement Analysis
Profitability Analysis Risk Analysis
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Writing a Financial Analysis Report
An example of analysis grid Guidance Notes Golden Rules Limitations of Financial Ratios
How to conduct a financial analysis? Preliminary analysis
(1) Strategic and Economic Assessment
(2) Growth Analysis
Financial Analysis (3) Profitability Analysis
(4) Risk Analysis
Summary note
(5) Recommendations
The toolkit of the financial analyst
1.1 Understand the characteristics of the sector in which the company operates… 1.2 … analyse the auditors’ report and accounting policies
2.1 Growth measurement
Sales, Net Income, EBITDA, Total Assets
2.2 How the firm uses its money?
Fixed Assets, WC, Capital Employed, Cash flow from investment activities
2.3 Where does the money come from?
Leverage, Equity, Net Debt, Capital Invested, Short-term debt, etc.
2.4 Analysis of the Cash Cycle
WC in days’ worth of sales; Cash flow from operating, FCF
3.1 Margin analysis
Profitability ratios, Cost structure
3.2 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
ROIC = NOPAT/ Capital Employed ROIC = Oper. Margin * Asset turnover Economic Value Added = ROIC - WACC
3.3 Return on Equity (ROE)
ROE = Net Income/ Equity ROE = ROIC + Leverage effect Residual Income= ROE - re
4.1 Short-term liquidity risk
Current ratio Quick ratio
4.2 Solvency risk
Interest coverage ratio, leverage, etc.
5. Develop and communicate conclusions / recommendations
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Financial Statement Analysis
Writing a Financial Analysis Report
An example of analysis grid Guidance Notes Golden Rules Limitations of Financial Ratios
Some Guidance Notes There is no single indicator of good health A rigorous Financial Analysis requires a combination and a cross-analysis of different indicators covering several aspects to “good financial health”
Ratios are not very helpful by themselves; they need to be compared to something: an appropriate benchmark Time-Trend Analysis Comparison with competitors and industry peers Return ratios should be compared to the required rate of return (Opportunity Cost of Capital)
Don’t only focus on the numbers, you need to be aware of the organisation’s business strategy and objectives Understand the nature of the industry in which the organisation operates Understand that the overall state of the economy may also have an impact on the performance of the organisation
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Writing a Financial Analysis Report
An example of analysis grid Guidance Notes Golden Rules Limitations of Financial Ratios
Some Golden Rules Spending money does not necessarily make you poorer and neither does receiving money necessarily make you any richer. A positive cash flow is not always value creating and vice versa (Cash generated by the core business versus cash generated by non-operating activities)
Earnings are an opinion, cash is a fact The need to assess earnings quality In assessment of earnings quality, the analyst should consider the materiality and variability of NON-OPEARTING items of income such as non-cash items
A lever can become a club The impact of financial leverage cannot be analyzed independently of Risk The value of a business depends primarily on the capacity of its assets to generate cash flows, and less on capital structure choices
A lack of liquidity may lead to loss of business opportunities and, in a worst case, bankruptcy
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Writing a Financial Analysis Report
An example of analysis grid Guidance Notes Golden Rules Limitations of Financial Ratios
Limitations of Financial Ratios « les chiffres sont des êtres fragiles qui, à force d'être torturés, finissent par avouer tout ce qu'on veut leur faire dire » Alfred Sauvy
Despite the appealing nature of financial ratios, they should be used with caution:
Based on historical accounting information and, thus, backward-looking Many ratios provides a snapshot of the firm’s financial position at a given point in time (e.g. Seasonality effects).
Accounting practices differ among firms and countries Accounting numbers always subject to window dressing (e.g. ROE). Inflation Effects; mostly on balance sheet and income statement amounts.
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Chapter Outline Writing a Financial Analysis Report An example of analysis grid Guidance Notes Golden Rules Limitations of Financial Ratios
Carlsberg Case Study Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Illiquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
8
Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Strategic and Economic Assessment Understand the Business Well and identify the main characteristics of: ⇒ the sector in which the company operates… ⇒ the product ⇒ the production model ⇒ distribution network ⇒ markets (local vs foreign) Etc. What are the potential implications of these characteristics on: ⇒ the operating cycle ⇒ the Cash cycle ⇒ the working capital ⇒ Investment requirements ⇒ margin Etc. 10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Strategic and Economic Assessment The Carlsberg Group is the fourth largest brewer in the world. The Group employs 41,000 people and is characterized by a high degree of diversity of brands, markets, and cultures. The business is focused in Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia where the firm has strong market positions. The rest of the world is mainly serviced through export or license agreements.
An extensive portfolio of more than 500 beer brands provides a beer for every occasion and palate. Their flagship brand, Carlsberg, is one of the best known beer brands in the world, and Baltika, Carlsberg, Tuborg and Kronenbourg are among the biggest brands in Europe. Since growth estimates are expected to be somewhat stagnant in Western Europe (poor performance in Spain and Greece), Carlsberg has been engaging in a lot of acquisitions to gain market share in emerging markets, mainly Russia and Asia. However, Carlsberg has suffered from the 200% duty increase on beer in Russia in 2010.
A benchmark: Heineken Both companies focus on the production and sale of beverages and they are among the top-five players in the brewery sector worldwide. From this perspective, they are comparable.
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Strategic and Economic Assessment Stock price trends (2010-2013)
Heineken
Carlsberg Dow Jones
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Strategic and Economic Assessment Beer is the core product Industrial business activity Relatively strong market position Heavy investments in Asia and Russia over the past 6 years Declining sales in Western European countries, mainly those affected by the debt crisis The 200% duty increase on beer in Russia in 2010 What are the potential implications of these characteristics on: ⇒ the Cash cycle ⇒ the working capital ⇒ Investment requirements ⇒ Asset turnover ⇒ margin 10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Wealth creation at a glance
AAGR Year 12 Year 11 Year 10 9,1% 5,7% 5,8% 1,1% 24,4% 4,2% 2,4% 7,2% 13,0% 4,2% -4,7% 12,1% 20,2% 9,7% -4,5% 43,0%
Growth rate
Net Sales Total Assets EBITDA Net Income
Year 9 Year 8 Year 7 -0,9% 34,0% 8,9% -6,1% 134,1% 4,7% 25,1% 29,3% 12,1% 30,0% 23,5% 19,6%
Positive growth rate for both sales and total assets, with an exceptional increase in 2008 => Explain the substantial increase in total assets in 2008: Fixed Assets (investment policy) ? Or current assets (deterioration of WC)? Or Cash ? Total assets have grown faster than Net Sales => Need to assess Carlsberg’s effectiveness in using its assets: Asset turnover EBITDA : after a significant increase in 2008 and 2009, the pace of growth clearly declined => Need to understand this downward trend (operating performance, competition context, etc.) Both EBITDA and Net Income increased faster than Net Sales, which may reflect good cost management => Examine cost structure 10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
How the firm uses its money?
Fixed Assets / Total Assets
Year 12 86,3%
Year 11 87,3%
Year 10 88,9%
Year 9 88,7%
Year 8 86,5%
Year 7 75,6%
Inventory / Total Assets Accounts Receivable / Total Assets Cash & Equivalent / Total Assets Fixed Assets Operating Working Capital Capital Employed
2,9% 5,1% 3,7% 17 799 -1 183 16 616
2,9% 5,3% 2,1% 17 276 -1 213 16 064
2,9% 3,9% 1,9% 17 191 -1 352 15 838
2,7% 4,4% 2,0% 15 984 -1 234 14 750
3,7% 4,4% 2,0% 16 619 -571 16 049
6,2% 10,4% 3,7% 6 201 -92 6 110
Asset structure: the weight of fixed assets significantly increased in 2008. Since that date, asset structure is quite stable Fixed Assets almost tripled in 2008 but remained stable over the past 4 years => Substantial investments in 2008 (check investments from 2009 to 2012?) => Profitability of these investments ? Working Capital is negative over the period, which is likely to free up cash for the firm => Need to explain this downward trend: receivables? Payables? Sales? Cash Cycle?
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Where does the money come from?
Financial Leverage Debt-to-capital ratio Long-term debt / Total Liabilities Short-term debt / Total Liabilities Accounts payable / Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Net Financial Debt Invested Capital
Year 12 68,4% 40,6% 65,7% 4,2% 30,1% 9 869 6 747 16 616
Year 11 67,4% 40,2% 65,1% 2,5% 32,4% 9 598 6 465 16 064
Year 10 69,8% 41,1% 63,5% 5,3% 31,2% 9 330 6 508 15 838
Year 9 85,0% 46,0% 66,7% 4,4% 28,9% 7 972 6 779 14 750
Year 8 Year 7 99,6% 128,6% 49,9% 56,3% 69,1% 58,3% 6,3% 9,4% 24,6% 32,3% 8 141 2 672 8 109 3 437 16 249 6 110
Financial Leverage sharply decreased from 128% in 2007 to 68% in 2012 => This decrease is mainly the result of a constant rise in Equity, and less a debt pay-down policy Investments in 2008 were funded both by Debt and Equity, which significantly increased capital invested in the firm => Despite a net decline in debt in 2009, the level of net debt remained stable over the past 4 years => Need to investigate the cost of debt and its impact on net income
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Analysis of the Cash Cycle Working Capital Needs in days’ worth of sales Year 12
Year 11
Year 10
Year 9
Year 8
Year 7
Inventory days
25
25
25
22
32
31
+ Receivable days
59
61
49
48
60
48
- Payable Days
131
134
126
118
112
72
= Operating Working Capital days worth of sales
-48
-48
-52
-47
-20
7
Working Capital Days moved from positive to negative in 2008, and registered a notable decrease over the period => Successful policy of rationalization of required working capital => However, we should notice the substantial increase in payable days. => Need to dig deeper to understand how Carlsberg can afford to wait more than 4 months before paying suppliers
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Analysis of the Cash Cycle Year 12 -1 183
Year 11 -1 213
Year 10 -1 352
Year 9 -1 234
Year 8 -571
Year 7 -92
Year 12
Year 11
Year 10
Year 9
Year 8
Year 7
Cash From Operating Activities (I)
1 323
1 181
1 477
1 827
1 047
648
Cash From Investing Activities (II)
-533
-654
-783
-413
-7 659
-660
790
527
694
1 414
-6 612
-12
Operating Working Capital
Free Cash Flow (I+II)
Working Capital rationalization was extremely profitable by improving the cash flows of Carlsberg => Substantial cash savings => Positive cash from operations => Thanks to Working Capital rationalization from 2009 to 2012, investments were entirely covered by cash from operations: money generated thanks to the core business activities
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Margin analysis (Common-size analysis - income statement) Profit & expenses % of Net Revenue
Net Revenue Cost of sales Gross Margin Operating expenses EBITDA Margin or Operating Margin Depreciation & amortization EBIT Margin Net financial expenses Pretax Income
- Corporate income tax Net Profit Margin
Year 12 100% 50% 50% 29% 21% 6% 15% 3% 12% 3% 9%
Year 11 100% 50% 50% 29% 21% 6% 15% 3% 12% 3% 9%
Year 10 100% 48% 52% 28% 23% 7% 17% 4% 13% 3% 10%
Year 9 100% 51% 49% 28% 21% 6% 15% 5% 10% 3% 7%
Year 8 100% 52% 48% 31% 17% 6% 11% 6% 5% -1% 5%
Year 7 100% 50% 50% 33% 17% 6% 11% 3% 8% 2% 6%
11%
11%
13%
11%
12%
8%
NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Tax)
The weight of cost of sales and operating expenses is relatively stable over the period => A good cost management Operating margin registered an interesting increase after 2008 => Investments made in 2008 seem to be profitable Net Income doubled from 2008 to 2010 => The continuous reduction in net financial expenses 10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Return analysis ROIC (Return On Invested Capital) Year 12
Year 11
Year 10
Year 9
Year 8
Year 7
NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Tax)
11%
11%
13%
11%
12%
8%
* Turnover rate of Capital employed
54%
53%
51%
54%
50%
98%
= ROIC (Return On Invested Capital)
6,1%
6,0%
6,4%
5,8%
5,9%
7,6%
ROIC was quite stable over the period (around 6%) => The increase in NOPAT in 2008 was not sufficient to offset the sharp decline in asset turnover => Despite a slight improvement in asset turnover during the three past years, its level remains significantly lower than the highest level reached in 2007 => The huge amount of investments in 2008 has weighed heavily on the operating performance
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Analyzing ROIC: Economic Value Added Return on invested capital for Carlsberg Versus WACC 8,0%
WACC=7%
7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Carlsberg is only creating value for its shareholders and lenders in 2007
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Analyzing ROIC: Economic Value Added Return on invested capital for Carlsberg and Heineken 20,0% ROIC Carlsberg
18,0%
ROIC Heineken 16,0% 14,0% 12,0% 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Carlsberg is only able to generate a ROIC that exceeds Heineken’s in 2008 Carlsberg’s level of profitability is generally below Heineken’s in the period examined 10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Analyzing ROIC : Where Does Profitability Come From? Comparison of profit margin of Heineken and Carlsberg
Comparison of turnover rate for Heineken and Carlsberg
18,0%
140% NOPAT Carlsberg
16,0%
Asset Turnover Carlsberg Asset Turnover Heineken
120%
NOPAT Heineken
14,0% 100%
12,0% 10,0%
80%
8,0%
60%
6,0% 40%
4,0%
20%
2,0% 0,0% 2007
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2008
2009
2010
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2011
2012
0%
Financial Statement Analysis
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Return analysis Return On Equity Year 12
Year 11
Year 10
Year 9
Year 8
Year 7
8,5%
7,9%
8,6%
7,0%
5,3%
13,0%
Year 12
Year 11
Year 10
Year 9
Year 8
Year 7
ROIC (Return On Invested Capital)
6,1%
6,0%
6,4%
5,8%
5,9%
7,6%
Net cost of debt
2,7%
3,2%
3,4%
4,3%
6,4%
3,3%
ROIC - Net cost of debt
3,4%
2,9%
3,1%
1,5%
-0,5%
4,2%
68,4%
67,4%
69,8%
85,0%
99,6%
128,6%
2,3%
1,9%
2,1%
1,2%
-0,5%
5,4%
ROE (Return On Equity)
The Financial Leverage Effect
* Financial Leverage = The Financial Leverage Effect
Carlsberg’s ROE was clearly affected by the financial leverage in 2008 => The firm is not able to recover to 2007’s ROE; its highest level => The continuous reduction of the debt burden and the financial leverage has led to an improvement of the financial leverage effect => The lower performance in terms of ROE is mainly due to the relatively low ROIC
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Analyzing ROE: Residual Income = Value added for owners = Owners’ Economic Profit Return On Equity for Carlsberg Versus Required Return on Equity (Equity Cost of Capital)
14,0% 12,0%
re=10%
10,0%
Carlsberg’s ROE
8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Carlsberg is only creating value for its shareholders in 2006 and 2007
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Analyzing ROE: Cross-Sectional Analysis Return On Equity for Carlsberg and Heineken 30,0% ROE Carlsberg 25,0%
ROE Heineken
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Carlsberg’s level of ROE was generally below Heineken’s in the period examined A decomposition of ROE shows that the higher return in Heineken can be attributed to a higher ROIC. 10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Illiquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Short-term liquidity ratios Year 12
Year 11
Year 10
Year 9
Year 8
Year 7
Current ratio Quick ratio Cash ratio
77% 60% 21%
71% 54% 54%
59% 43% 43%
61% 46% 46%
74% 54% 54%
87% 65% 65%
Cash flow from operations to short-term debt ratio
36%
33%
40%
55%
30%
28%
Short term liquidity ratios show that the firm’s current assets are not able to cover current liabilities => The sharp decline in cash ratio could be cause of concern. Need to investigate the reasons of this brutal drop => CFO to short-term debt ratio registered also a significant decrease compared to its level in 2009
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Illiquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Long-term liquidity risk Long-term debt / Total Liabilities Short-term debt / Total Liabilities Financial Leverage Solvency ratio Interest Coverage ratio Interest Coverage ratio (Cash) Debt to EBITDA Debt to Cash flow from operations ratio
Year 12 65,7% 4,2% 68,4% 47,8% 5,57 5,57 3,62 5,10
Year 11 65,1% 2,5% 67,4% 48,5% 4,73 4,37 3,62 5,47
Year 10 63,5% 5,3% 69,8% 48,3% 4,64 5,11 3,47 4,41
Year 9 66,7% 4,4% 85,0% 44,2% 2,91 4,56 4,06 3,71
Year 8 69,1% 6,3% 99,6% 42,0% 1,83 2,26 6,07 7,75
Year 7 58,3% 9,4% 128,6% 32,6% 4,03 4,03 3,33 5,30
Financial Leverage sharply decreased from 128% in 2007 to 68% in 2012 => This decrease is mainly the result of a constant rise in Equity, and less a debt pay-down policy Interest Coverage ratios registered a substantial improvement over the period => This decrease is mainly the result of a constant decrease in net financial expenses Debt to EBITDA ratio has also registered a positive evolution => however, we should notice the stagnation of this ratio over the past 2 years, the debt stopped decreasing ! 10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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Carlsberg Case Study
Preliminary Analysis Growth Analysis Profitability Analysis Liquidity risk: short and long-term ratios Summary Note
Summary Notes: the strengths and weaknesses The strengths Net sales are growing faster than costs: good management of operating costs leading to a positive evolution of operating margin Successful policy of rationalization of required working capital: substantial cash savings Thanks to Working Capital rationalization over the past 4 years, investments have been entirely covered by cash from operations: money generated thanks to the core business activities The weaknesses Net Assets are growing faster than net sales: heavy investments have considerably affected asset turnover ROIC is not high enough to compensate for lower asset turnover Operating performance is not sufficient to create value for shareholders Recommendations Need to assess the quality of investments (i.e. assets) The significant increase in payables could be cause of concern: perhaps indicating the firm is becoming a bad payer ?! 10/23/2013 10:32 AM
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Financial Statement Analysis
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