EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A. Introduction The economy of Thailand has

production processes or enhance the firm's technological resources from within the firm ..... should finally aim for brand name manufacturing and look out for.
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NIRA RESEARCH OUTPUT, VOL.5 NO.3, 1992

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A. Introduction The economy of Thailand has expanded at an impressive double-digit GDP rate in the last few years, averaging 11.0 percent in real terms from 1987 to 1990. More significantly, the country’s industrial sector has been surging at a much higher average growth rate in recent times to gain an increasingly large share of the GDP of over 25 percent since 1989. A recent World Bank study into the international competitiveness of Thailand has suggested that the country has appeared to undergo a structural change from labor-intensive to technology-intensive industries, since it seems to have begun developing some comparative advantages in the manufacture and export of differentiated goods. In that respect, the development and enhancement of the production and engineering capability necessary to support the manufacturing of differentiated products depend in no small part on adequate machinery and information equipment industries, in particular on the machine tool, the mold and die, the computer, and the telecommunications equipment sectors of the above industries. These industries, while important in their own right to meet fast-expanding world demand−their outputs are essential to the production of capital goods for most any industries − are even more important for the production of technology-intensive goods. It is therefore vital that Thailand should not neglect the development of these two industries, especially the four important sectors of machine tool, mold and die, computer, and telecommunications equipment. B. The Theoretical Framework and Methodology The framework used in this study has two major components. The first is an economic analysis and the second a technological analysis. The former is essentially modeled along the concept of Michael Porter, while the second is based on a number of technological assessment frameworks from the works of Sharif, Wesphal, and Thailand Development Research Institute’s earlier works. The economic analysis framework consists of four parts: demand conditions, supply conditions, market structure, and firms’ strategies and supporting industries. On demand conditions, home demand will be analyzed in terms of market segments and characteristics relating to product composition, technological requirements, price and other competitive factors, and the role of government and export demand will focus on export value and share in production, growth and type of

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products, and international competitiveness. Supply conditions will cover factor requirements, sources of factor supply and input, and factor market distortion. Market structure and firms’ strategy concerns the extent and nature of competition, barriers to entry, the entrance and exit of producers, ownership and management style, market niches, and product differentiation. Supporting industries will be analyzed with, for example, respect to the availability and depth of supporting industries and services, the extent of linkages, the quality and capacity to meet demand, and price competitiveness. The technological analysis framework seeks to integrate the concepts of technological embodiment, technological capability, and technological content. Technological embodiments describe a firm’s technological resource endowments in manpower, machinery, information and organization, each of which interacts with and influences the others dynamically. Technological contents describe a firm’s basic production and technological base, which resides in the four technological components of production management technology, process technology, product-specific technology, and design technology. Technological capabilities give yet another perspective of a firm’s technological and production base in terms of an ability to develop and / or produce quality products at competitive prices (operative capability); acquire and absorb technology from without the firm (acquisitive capability); modify and improve products and / or production processes or enhance the firm’s technological resources from within the firm (adaptive capability); and lastly, introduce new applications of knowledge or experience that significantly change the firm’s technological base and competitiveness (innovative capability). Technological contents essentially focus on the possession of technology embodied in a firm’s technological resources, while technological capabilities basically give a measure of how well a firm utilizes or enhances its technological resources. Economic analysis and technological analysis according to the above theoretical framework are applied to each of the four sectors under study based on secondary data sources from previous studies and published data and statistics in conjunction with primary data sources from interviews of firms, relevant agencies, and expert opinions and knowledge. In all, 22 firms in the machinery and 21 firms in the information equipment industries were used, along with l0 government agencies, in our field interviews. In addition, expert opinions from 10 knowledgeable and authoritative persons within the relevant fields was sought. C. The Machine Tool Industry In the early 1970s, the production of machine tools began with

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simple machine tool manufacturing based on imports of critical parts and reverse engineering to supply local needs. From some eight producers in 1973, the number increased to just 18 four years later. The value added generated by the industry’s production in 1980 was a mere 113 million baht. Local production served only many small repair shops. Therefore, most of the domestic demand for machine-tool capital goods was met by imports, which rose sharply from 132 to 791 million baht in 1970 and 1980, respectively. There were practically no exports until about 1975, with some 7 million baht, rising to 36 million baht in 1980. The next half of the 1980s saw very little change. While production had risen to 324 million baht in 1985, imports soared to over 2,100 baht amid a drop in exports to just 16 million baht that year. With the substantial entry of foreign firms since the mid-1980s to take advantage of low labor and overhead costs, the industry has undergone significant changes. These foreign entries came mostly from Japan and Taiwan to manufacture CNC and high-end products for export, Production and exports rose therefore to 781 and 787 million baht, respectively, in 1990, while imports continued to expand to over 11,300 million baht the same year. Economic Analysis a. Demand conditions: The rapid growth in domestic demand has not stimulated similar growth in production, except for foreign subsidiaries aiming at the export market, for several reasons. First, there was an absence of a captive market during the 1970s; second, there was a subsequent change in demand conditions from simple machines to CNC and high-end products during the 1980s; third, various promotion privileges were seen to go against the purchase of locally made machine tools. b. Supply conditions: The government has so far played only a minor role in the building of the necessary production infrastructure. Thus, there is a wide-spread lack of technical manpower, particularly in the fields of metallurgy, mechanical, testing, design, and other engineering services. Furthermore, past government policy had not provided any significant and specific support to the industry except in the form of some general tariff protection measures. c. Market structure and firms’ strategies: Most Thai firms spent little effort to explore and diversify to other potential or related products and instead seemed content to adopt inward-looking market strategies and imitative technology strategies. In contrast, newly established foreign firms tend to employ outward-looking market strategies and defensive technology strategies with the main aim of manufacturing competitive products for the world market. d. Supporting industries: The industry also faces constraints in the

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availability of supporting industries like high-quality casting, forging, machining, and heat treatment. Moreover, there is no local supply of electronic control devices for CNC machine tools. Makers of these machine have to depend on imports at high costs and are without the know-how to effectively install these devices, in contrast with foreign firms, which are strongly supported by parent companies. Technological Analysis a. Technological capabilities: Both foreign and Thai firms are seen to lack either innovative or adaptive capabilities. Similarly, both groups are not much different in acquisitive capability. However, there is a large difference in operative capability. Thai firms tend to have low production efficiency and inconsistent product quality, unlike foreign firms. Moreover, foreign firms tend to invest substantially in human resource development in addition to up-to-date machinery and equipment. b. Technological contents: Foreign firms are stronger in process and product-specific technology than most Thai firms, and somewhat surprisingly both groups are weak in production-management technology. Another common characteristic is that both do not pay much attention to the use of design technology. c. Technological embodiments: In general, Thai firms are found to be inferior in technological embodiments. Machinery and equipment in Thai firms are simple and of the manual type or are largely secondhand; skills are scarce and tend to reside with only the owner or a few top personnel; information is minimal and not consciously acquired and used; organization is weak, with most decisions made by only one or a few persons. D. The Mold & Die Industry Production of molds and dies evolved from machine shops using their experience repairing imported dies. The demand for dies has increased in line with the expansion of user industries, such as the auto-motive, machinery parts, metal products, and plastic products. In the automotive industry for example, the local content requirements necessitate a demand for dies in the making of several automotive parts. Furthermore, computer peripherals have emerged as an important export industry that presents another important source of demand for precision dies. Economic Analysis a. Demand conditions: Domestic die production was estimated at 1,700 million baht in 1989, with imports and exports of 1,738 and 171 million baht, respectively. In 1990, the import and export values of dies

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jumped to 3,069 and 255 million baht, respectively. The rapid rise in demand was induced by a rapid expansion of user industries. The expansion is, however, most apparent among large firms dominated by subsidiaries of large user companies and joint venture firms. b. Supply conditions: The most serious shortcoming of the supply conditions is a serious shortage of engineers, experienced technicians, and skilled labor. BOI-promoted, firms for whom the acquisition of efficient machinery poses no serious problem, are generally well equipped, unlike non-promoted firms, which face considerable problems due to high import tariffs. c. Supporting industries: Important supporting industries are machining, casting, forging, heat treatment, and electroplating. In recent years, there have been significant developments in all of these industries. High-quality cast steel for die making can be produced by several firms, though at a relatively high price due to the limited number of suppliers. Heat-treatment technology is somewhat underdeveloped. Electroplating service is widely available, though a good quality of plating is usually hard to find. d. Market structure and firms’ strategies: While competition on a cost basis at the low end of the die market is very keen, the high-end segment is oligopolistic and competition is restricted by technological capabilities. Most small firms have rather narrow technology perspectives and generally stay at the low end of the market. Among large firms, vertical integration is quite common in order for firms to meet their own needs. In the middle is the group of firms founded by former engineers or technicians from large firms. Their strategies tend to emphasize higher value added rather than lower cost. Technological Analysis We may broadly classify firms into two groups. The first are those supplying products in the high end and middle market. These firms possess a relatively high level of operative capability and represent only a small fraction of the total number of producers. Most are joint ventures and foreign subsidiaries and are among the most advanced die producers in Thailand, with strong support from parent companies. Design is carried out by a design staff consisting of engineers and draftsmen and is facilitated by software programs on computer-aided design equipment. These firms are well equipped with modern machinery imported mostly from Japan. Raw materials are properly selected, and finished products are thoroughly tested. These firms’ technological embodiments are comparable with international standards, with suitable machinery and equipment capable of producing a standard quality of dies. Manpower includes a good proportion of design engineers, draftsmen, skilled machine operators, and supervisors. They usually have good

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access to technological information, their organizational structure and job descriptions are well defined, and appropriate management techniques are usually employed. Although the operative capability among this group of firms is generally high, many factors like the scarcity of qualified manpower and the lack of facilities and supporting institutions make it more practical to acquire new technology through a transfer mechanism than through innovation. Thus, even leading firms in Thailand generally have low innovative and adaptive capabilities. The second group of die manufacturers−made up of firms founded by former engineers and technicians−tends to have lower technological capability. Its design capability, though higher than most average Thai firms, is not on par with the first group of mostly foreign and joint venture firms on account of inferior human resources and equipment. The surveyed sample did not cover the third group of small Thai firms with very limited technological resources and manpower whose characteristics can be inferred from various past studies. These firms are expected to remain unchanged at the low end of the market through out their life span because of the low educational back ground of their personnel. E. The Telecommunications Equipment Industry Until only four or five years ago, the much underdeveloped condition of the telecommunications equipment and related industries was seen to be caused, among other things, by the heavy regulations and control under the state. The majority of firms in the electronics industry initially concentrated on the consumer electronics sector, then shifted to component manufacturing, followed by computers and, peripherals in the late 1980s. The telecommunication services deregulation in the U.S. in 1984 gave a major impetus first to the growth of the customer premises equipment industry among Asian NIEs. Then, a major industrial shift precipitated by rising labor costs among these countries forced many labor-intensive operations to be relocated elsewhere, mostly to lower labor cost countries, including Thailand. At least some 30 over telecommunications equipment and parts manufacturers are already in operations today compared with just a handful of local firms prior to the mid-1980s. While imports continued to grow to satisfy unmet domestic demand, to 10,889 million baht in 1990, exports jumped dramatically from a mere 9 million baht in 1980 to 86 million baht in 1986 and grew strongly to 5,153 million baht in 1990. From a narrow range of radio transceivers and simple telephone sets for the local niche market, the product range expanded quickly to include the mass production of cordless telephones, telephone

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answering machines, key telephones, small PABX, facsimile machines, and an increasingly wide range of parts and components, all for export. Economic Analysis a. Demand conditions: Demand for telecommunications equipment in Thailand has grown steadily since industrialization began in the 1960s. However, the near absence of a telecommunications equipment industry to meet the demand necessitated that the equipment be largely imported. The biggest immediate boost to stimulate the growth of the domestic market is expected from the programme to bring the telephone density of the country to about 8 per 100 persons from the current level of under 3 per 100 persons. Many spins-off from an increasing demand in customer premise equipment are likely to follow. While it is likely that local demand for single-line telephone sets could be met, there is a substantial amount of unmet demands for PABX systems, cellular phones, and facsimile machines, as shown by the strong growth in imports. At the same time, with the continuing growth of the world market for telecommunications equipment, growth prospects remain good for the telecommunications equipment industry in Thailand to meet both local and export demands at least during the next decade. b. Supply conditions: Production in Thailand is confined mainly to the assembling of parts and components mostly imported from abroad. Manufacturing of input materials into parts is rare. Thailand, with its abundant, low-wages labor force and its relatively cheap and plentiful land is naturally a favorable destination for the labor-intensive assembly of products and parts. However, there are a number of major weaknesses needing urgent attention, such as the lack of a strong supporting industry or a strong linkage of parts and intermediate goods suppliers with the equipment manufacturers, an inadequate supply of skilled manpower, and the weak technical infrastructure. c. Market structure and firms’ strategies: Most Thai-owned firms tend to lack strong technology and marketing support for world markets compared with joint ventures or foreign subsidiaries. These firms have to develop a certain degree of self-sufficiency and tend to concentrate on somewhat rather small domestic market niches. They seem to accord more attention to product development and marketing than to advanced and efficient production machinery, know-how, management, and manpower development in contrast with foreign firms, who establish facilities in Thailand predominantly as a manufacturing and export base. More often than not, the higher technology content and less labor-intensive production activities are rarely transferred to Thailand. d. Supporting industries: There is very little local sourcing and backward linkages inspite of the export boom in both finished products and parts and components − the domestic industry remains largely

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dependent on imported parts and CKD kits. The country has begun to see an increase in localization. Yet, these backward linkages have tended to involve foreign subsidiaries supplying exclusively to other exporting foreign-owned final product assemblers. Despite the increasing number of such instances, the industry overall still has a low local content ratio (of less than 30 percent on average) among exporting assemblers of final products. Technological Analysis a. Technological contents: Firms belonging to the domestic market segment of the industry tend to have characteristics common to most local Thai firms. While they tend to possess the whole spectrum of technological contents, they are however not in-depth or very advanced and are less attentive to engineering and management techniques for higher production efficiency and quality. In the case of exporting firms, most of which are foreign and joint venture firms, they typically employ up-to-date production and process technologies for efficiency and consistent product quality and reliability. Complete production and processes know-how are usually transferred from a foreign manufacturing base and are often accompanied by foreign technical personnel. However, design and product-specific technologies often remain weak or are completely absent in Thailand. b. Technological capabilities: Thai-owned firms tend to possess a fair amount of acquisitive capability in sourcing technology and inputs, as well as operative capability. While the level may not be high, they do have some adaptive capability from reverse engineering. However, very little innovative capability is to be observed, although most of them have some in-house designing activity. On the other hand, export-oriented firms all have a strong operative capability using similar production and processes from their home bases to ensure the same production efficiency and product reliability. However, acquisitive, adaptive, and innovative capabilities, insofar as the local subsidiaries alone are concerned, are weak generally as the bulk of input and machinery is supplied from the parent firms. Products and process changes if any are largely made by the parent companies. c. Technological embodiments: The majority of Thai firms generally are weak in all technological factors. Capital facilities are simple and only sufficient to handle the low production output required. These firms in general employ only a few qualified engineers and technicians, partly because their costs and partly because of the current technical manpower shortage; information is relatively short, with hardly any attention paid to it; and organizational structure tends to be unsystematic and weak in decision making and marketing. Most foreign firms’ technological embodiments are strong in all respects.

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F. The Computer Industry Among electronic products, computers and peripherals have shown the highest growth in exports since the mid-1980s, from a negligible amount in 1980 to 31 percent of total electronics exports in the late 1980s. The Thai computer industry began modestly in the early 1980s with a small local Thai firm assembling computer terminals from imported CKD kits for export. The entry of the Thai firm was subsequently overwhelmingly overshadowed by a number of major computer parts and components producers in 1987, mostly from the present world production leaders. In 1989, the computer peripherals segment of the electronics industry overtook the leading export item since the late 1970s−the integrated circuit−with an export value of close to 27 billion baht as compared with some 18 billion baht for ICs to become one of the highest principal export items of Thailand, second only to textiles and garments. Economic Analysis a. Market structure and firms’ strategies: Though the industry’s growth has been most impressive, its share of the world production and export markets is still minimal. The product line where Thailand can likely follow the example of NIEs and be a part of the world computer industry is in the production of personal computers and related peripherals because impediments to entry are fewer. As Thailand is abundant in efficient, low-skilled labor, it is therefore naturally suitable to be an export base for the labor-intensive production of computer peripherals and parts b. Demand conditions: The foreign firms that relocated that part of their production that needs labor-intensive processes to Thailand did so in response to changing world conditions. Wages and the domestic foreign exchange values had risen rapidly and cost competitiveness was quickly eroded. At the same time, the U.S. and E.C. countries introduced other protectionist measures. The Thai economy was booming, and the fact that BOI and GSP privileges were available greatly added to an already favorable investment climate. c. Supply conditions: Management teams of MNC subsidiaries tend to consist of personnel from the parent companies partly because of a local shortage of engineers and managers. In addition, local engineers and technicians are usually sent to the parent companies for training prior and subsequent to production, thus they do acquire some technical (mostly operational) knowledge from the MNCs. While firms can benefit from the low wages and high productivity of unskilled labor, some processes do need imported modern machines

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and equipment. Most of the complicated maintenance that has to be done by engineers or consultants from the parent companies or the machine suppliers overseas is seen as time consuming and costly. Supporting Industries Not only does machinery and equipment come from abroad, but also most of the raw materials. Local materials are, in fact, limited to a few components produced by other BOI-promoted firms under indirect exporter status. Indeed, the lack of efficient supporting industries could well adversely affect a firm’s production growth. Technological Analysis a. Technological contents: Local firms largely produce small quantities for the local market, whereas foreign MNCs produce in large volume for export and need maximum production efficiency and quality for competition in the world market. It is very important for exporting firms to use a high level of production-management technology, process technology, and to some extent product-specific technology, but not design technology. In contrast, while local firms incorporate the whole range of technology, the levels possessed are not particularly high. b. Technological capabilities: Similar patterns of characteristics with the telecommunications equipment industry can also be observed within the computer industry in that most foreign firms do have very strong operative capability though they tend to overlook the development of other capabilities. On the other hand, local firms generally have a fair amount of all the technological capabilities except innovative capability. c. Technological embodiments: Again, a similar situation exists here as within the telecommunications equipment industry. The limitation in technological embodiments among local firms makes it difficult for them to enhance their technological capabilities, hence the opportunity to enter into OEM manufacturing is consequently less likely to occur. G. Strategies and Policy Recommendations The general policy trend of the Thai government is toward the liberalization of industry and reduction of protection. While we are in general agreement, we are also concerned that free competition or market forces alone may not be the most efficient way to develop industries. A World Bank report suggested four key roles a government can play in the development of the electronics industry that are seen to be generally applicable to other industries also. They are: to develop technical human capital, to strengthen the basic technological infrastructure, to provide incentives to improve technological levels,

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and to provide an environment for flexible adjustment to production structure. The present Thai government policy has tried to address the fourth but has by and large ignored the first three. Certainly the first two roles are considered part of the obligations that a government should provide to facilitate the development of a country. The current acute technical manpower shortage, especially of engineers and skilled technicians, has negatively affected productive efficiencies, project expansion, and product development programs and is therefore in need of being urgently addressed. Basic technological infrastructure, such as calibration, testing, inspection, contract R & D, consultancy, information, and training, are insufficient and sometimes nonexistent, prompting firms to seek alternative overseas services at much higher costs and lead time. Strategies a. Phase I (0 to 5 years): Creating a strong support industry. For the machine tool industry, the basic support industry is the metalworking industry, which is also basic to many other industries ranging from electrical and electronics to the automotive industry. The mold and die industry needs casting, machining, heat treatment, and electroplating. In turn, the mold and die industry is itself a support industry to the fabrication of metal, plastic, and metal parts. The telecommunications and the computer, and peripherals industries need many mechanical parts from the metalworking industry and the mold and die industry. As for electronics industry specific processes, important supporting industries are printed circuit board etching and other electronic parts and components industries. Proposed Phase I strategies are: 1. To continue the promotion of foreign direct investments, joint ventures, and technology licensing in the machine tool, mold and die, telecommunications equipment, and computer and peripherals industries, particularly in their support industries, as a first step to enlarging the value-added chain (Fig.6.1). 2. To promote greater backward linkages as well as OEM manufacturing for foreign firms. Up to now, spill-over effects from FDI, if any, have been largely limited to production-management and process technologies and to practically no design capability, marketing know-how, subcontracting, or establishment of new local firms by former managers, engineers, or technicians. 3. To strengthen the basic technological infrastructure provided by government agencies as well as private organizations providing such services as calibration, standards, testing, information, consultancy and training. Access to foreign expertise and

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technology should be emphasized. 4. To use government procurement as a means to nurture local firms, promote backward linkages, access and acquire foreign technologies, and diffuse and adapt technologies. b. Phase Ⅱ (5 to 10 years): Intensifying design and fabrication activities. As industries mature, comparative advantages will gradually shift from the low cost of production workers to the low cost of engineers (based on engineering and design capability) and managers (based on marketing and management skills). Development strategy over the medium term (5 to 10 years) should focus on expanding the value-added chain’s activities upstream to RD&E (research, development, and engineering) as well as downstream to cover marketing function. For the machine tool industry, after good metal parts are widely available in the country, assembly and fabrication activities will become more feasible and could be led by prominent international machine tool firms to create markets and skills. For the mold and die industry, the emphasis should shift to mold and die design. At the same time, more attention should be paid to small, high-precision molds and dies for the electronics industry, like stamping dies for IC package connector pins. For the telecommunications industry, some target products could be selected based on market needs as well as indigenous capability. Potential targets could be feature phones, cellular telephones, pagers, PABX, and facsimile machines. The microcomputer industry should feature more sophisticated hardware and software design to enhance its competitiveness. The design of peripherals such as keyboards and monitors should be possible. Once the investment and backward linkages strategies of Phase I have been achieved, their objectives can continue on their own momentum. The technological infrastructure, however, needs to be continually upgraded to maintain its usefulness. RD&E activities of the public sector should now be linked to those of the private sector. The government procurement policy is still applicable, but measure should be carefully designed so as not to overprotect the domestic firms to the point of making them uncompetitive internationally. Such a privilege should be coupled with improved performance proven by export capability. c. Phase Ⅲ (over 10 years): Brand name manufacturing. For longer-term strategies of over 10 years, domestic firms should finally aim for brand name manufacturing and look out for opportunities in forming strategic alliances with suitable foreign companies. Targeting makes more sense at both firm (private) and national (public) levels due to the high investment cost and long lead time of R&D.

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Policy Recommendations Supply-Side Aspect a ) Investment promotion: These industries, including parts and components manufacturing and support industries and services, should be kept on the promoted list of the BOI. b)Industrial linkage Development: The BOI Unit for Industrial Linkage Development (BUILD) can provide information on available local supporting industries to large firms seeking subcontractors. Technical assistance to small and medium firms attempting to become subcontractors may be provided by government agencies like MIDI or by large principals. C)Technological infrastructure building: The government should take action to ease the problems of the technical manpower brain drain (to the private sector) and budget constraint in governmental agencies. d)Technical human capital development: In the short run, there is no alternative but to launch massive short course programs making full use of industrial experts already residing in the country. In the medium term, new private-sector educational institutions may provide significant contributions along with reformed public educational institutions both at the degree and diploma levels. In the longer run, a clear vision of the future man power needs of Thailand must be developed by public-sector policy-makers. Demand-Side Aspects a)Government procurement: The government should use procurement selectively as an instrument to promote local industry. b)Incentives for training: The government should encourage more training investment through the provision of incentives along the success story of the Skill Development Fund in Singapore. c)Social status for technicians: The country should consider schemes to institutionalize appropriate certification systems in technical skills and proficiency rankings of workers to raise the social standing of skilled craftsmen. This could be done by proclaiming a National Technical Qualification Law similar to the successful examples of Taiwan and the Republic of Korea. d ) Tax rationalization: Together with the value-add tax, a more rationalized tax structure should increase the competitiveness of Thai industries.

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