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ENFIDHA ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TUNISIA
Mehdi Ben Abda Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1.231 Airport Systems Planning, Design and Management December 2009
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TABLE OF CONTENT 1. 2.
Introduction................................................................................................................. 4 Rational Behind the Project and the Need for A New Airport ................................... 4 2.1. Project motivations ............................................................................................. 5 2.2. Need for a new airport and choice of the location.............................................. 8 3. Enfidha Zine El Abidine Ben Ali International Airport ............................................. 9 3.1. Key players ......................................................................................................... 9 3.2. The contractor ................................................................................................... 10 3.3. Airport characteristics....................................................................................... 10 3.4. Airport design choices ...................................................................................... 11 3.5. Master plan for future airport development and extensions ............................. 12 4. Airside Capacity Analysis at NBE Airport............................................................... 13 4.1. Runway ............................................................................................................. 13 4.1.1. Theoretical capacity envelope for ENFIDHA airport runway (27/9)....... 13 4.1.2. Verification of adequate airfield capacity................................................. 16 4.1.3. Runway length .......................................................................................... 17 4.1.4. Runway orientation and wind coverage.................................................... 17 4.2. Taxiway............................................................................................................. 19 5. Estimation of NBE Airport’s Aeronautical and Non-Aeronautical Revenues ......... 20 5.1. Construction cost of the new Enfidha airport ................................................... 20 5.2. Estimation of the aeronautical revenue............................................................. 20 5.3. Estimation of the non-aeronautical revenue ..................................................... 24 6. Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 28
LIST OF TABLES Table 1- Separation requirements between successive landing aircraft ........................... 14 Table 2- Matrix of pair probabilities................................................................................. 15 Table 3- Matrix of average time separations .................................................................... 15 Table 4- minimum separation requirements between successive departing aircraft ........ 15 Table 5- Landing fees, boarding fees and security tax at Monastir International airport (MIR) ................................................................................................................................ 21
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1- Top 3 Airports in Tunisia Passenger Traffic Trends, 2003-2009 ....................... 6 Figure 2- Satellite view of the Monastir International Airport ........................................... 7 Figure 3- Satellite view of the Tunis-Carthage International Airport................................. 7 Figure 4- Map of the Major Tourism areas in the North of Tunisia................................... 8 Figure 5- A typical capacity envelope for a single runway .............................................. 13 Figure 6- Enfidha airport theoretical runway capacity envelope...................................... 16 Figure 7- Wind Distribution at Monastir, 2008 ................................................................ 18 Figure 8- Wind Distribution at Monastir during January and Novemver, 2008............... 19 2
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Quick Facts1: Terminal Design Capacity: 5,000,000 passengers per year Est. Terminal Capacity in 40 Years: 20,000,000 passengers per year Building Construction Site Area: 130,000 m² Airside Construction Site Area: 2.000.000 m² Landside Construction Site Area: 800.000 m² Total Airport Area: 5,800 ha. Terminal Footprint Area: 44,000 m² Terminal Usage Area: 90,000 m² Car Park Area: 52,000 m² Car Park Capacity: 804 vehicles Passenger Boarding Bridges: 18 units Connected Apron Area: 72,000 m² Connected Apron Capacity: 18 aircraft Remote Apron Area: 57,000 m² Remote Apron Capacity: 14 aircraft stands Runway Length: 3,300 meters Runway Width: 60 meters Total Taxiway Length: 13,000 meters Taxiway Width: 25 mt Total Filling Volume: 8.500.000 m3 Total Asphalt Quantity: 700.000 ton Total Subbase Quantity: 1.000.000 ton Total Excavation Volume: 3.000.000 m3 Total Earthworks Quantity: 11.500.000 m3 ATC Tower Height: 90 mt Approach Category on 09: Cat I Approach Category on 27: Cat II Level of Service IATA: B Cost of phase 1: € 384 million
1
TAV, http://www.tavconstruction.com/tav/Projects/Aviation---Airports/Ongoing-Projects/New-EnfidhaInternational-Airport-(Tunisia).aspx, last accessed 12/01/2009
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1. Introduction The aim of this term project is to analyze the planning, design and financial aspects of the recently built ENFIDHA ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (NBE) in north east Tunisia. The first objective is to understand the rationale behind the construction of a new airport facility (and then the choice of the location) as opposed to increase the capacity at the existing nearby MONASTIR airport (MIR) and/or TUNIS-CARTHAGE airport (TUN). The second part of this study focus on the analysis of new Enfidha airport’s stakeholders, characteristics and master plan. The goal is to challenge the assumptions made for the design choices, determine the sensitivity of the output to small variations in these assumptions, and find out if this design is flexible to changes in traffic trends and robust under uncertainty. The third part deals with the airside capacity of the new NBE airport including runway orientation and length. This section analyzes in detail the runway maximum throughput capacity and verifies that it can accommodate the forecasted traffic. The fourth part presents an introduction to the financial development of this project from the airport operator (TAV) stand point. This section introduces a simulation, made under a set of educated and realistic assumptions, of the new Enfidha airport’s aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues. Through the entire study, a benchmarking of this new airport facility relatively to other existing worldwide airports was performed for sanity check.
2. Rational Behind the Project and the Need for A New Airport Over the past decade Tunisia has become one of the most popular tourist destinations in Africa. The attraction of the Sahara Desert, its Mediterranean climate, its proximity with Europe, its fine hotels and beach resorts, golf courses and historical sites make it a perfect venue for holidaying travelers, particularly Europeans.
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The tourism sector accounts for 7% of the GDP in Tunisia and is a major economic driver of foreign currency to the country (covers 65% of the trade balance). With 230,000 beds in 814 hotel units, tourism generates 380,000 direct jobs and indirect employment. In order to handle the increase in air traffic driven by tourism, Tunisia’s Ministry of Communications, Technology and Transport, along with the Tunisian Airport Authority (OACA), made the decision to erect a new world-class airport situated in Enfidha (Central-East coast area of Tunisia). 2.1. Project motivations During the past two decades, Tunisia experienced a rapid growth of the demand for air traffic. Tourism has been the main driver for this exponential growth. In fact, the tourism sector’s indicators2 show unrelenting and rapid progress: - The number of hotel nights increased from 18.5 million in 1987 to 37.3 million in 2007 - The number of entries increased from 1,874,734 tourists in 1987 to 6,761,906 in 2007 - The revenue from tourism increased from 968.9 million dinars in 1987 to 3,077.3 million dinars in 2007. On the supply side, Tunisia (with a total surface area of 162,155 km² - equivalent to the surface area of the state of Florida) has eight international airports. According to the 2009 estimate, the population of Tunisia totalizes 10,432,500 citizens which lead to an average of 1,300,000 capita per airport. The top 3 airports in Tunisia- namely Monastir, TunisCarthage and Djerba-Zarzis - are ranked respectively 11, 13 and 16 in the list of the busiest airport in Africa3. These three main gateways to the country are congested facilities. As we can eyeball in Figure 1, Tunis-Carthage and Djerba-Zarzis have experienced respectively 6.6 and 8.1% increase in passenger traffic on average over the past five year. These two facilities are expected to reach their respective capacities by 2012 for TUN and by 2018 for DJE. In the case of Monastir International Airport, the maximum capacity of the passenger Terminal building is already exceeded; 4,314,040 passengers in 2008 vs. a design capacity of 3,500,000 passengers per year. 2 3
http://www.tunisiaonline.com/tourism/index.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_busiest_airports_in_Africa
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Rank in AFRICA
Airport
Code
2008
2007
Change (07/06)
11 13 16
Monastir Airport Tunis Carthage Airport Djerba-Zarzis Airport
MIR TUN DJE
4,314,040 4,068,233 2,626,742
4,279,802 3,930,661 2,555,197
1.9% 7.7% 5.4%
Capacity (pax/year)
4
3,500,000 5,000,000 4,000,000
5,000,000 4,500,000
Passenger Traffic
4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 2003
2004
2005 2006 MIR TUN DJE
2007
2008
2009*
Figure 1- Top 3 Airports in Tunisia Passenger Traffic Trends, 2003-20095
As we can observe on the Figure 2 representing a satellite view of the Monastir International Airport, the facility is surrounded by a lagoon on one side and by the main access road on the other side. This configuration prohibits significant infrastructure expansion. Analogously, as we can see in the Figure 3 representing a satellite view of the Tunis-Carthage International Airport, the airport is surrounded by a very densely populated residential area making very hard any major investment in order to increase the capacity. Furthermore, the noise emissions measured in the vicinity of the Tunis Carthage airport (located in the cones of the aircrafts takeoffs and landings) are already on threshold of the tolerated nuisances in residential area as specified by the international standards and can not support any additional, significant increase in traffic. 4 5
http://www.oaca.nat.tn/ Author based on data from http://www.oaca.nat.tn/ and estimates for 2009
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Figure 2- Satellite view of the Monastir International Airport6
Figure 3- Satellite view of the Tunis-Carthage International Airport7
6 7
Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth
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2.2. Need for a new airport and choice of the location
As a result of the facts mentioned above, Tunisia’s Ministry of Communications, Technology and Transport, along with the Tunisian Airport Authority (OACA), made the decision to erect an airport situated approximately 90 km south of the capital city Tunis. This airport site is located between two major tourist areas: Nabeul-Hammamet and Sousse-Monastir-Mahdia. This region accounts for nearly 65% of the national tourism capacity. Popular Tunisian Resort as % of Bed Nights Sousse-Monastir-Mahdia Nabeul-Hammamet Djerba-Zarzis
36% 24% 24%
Figure 4- Map of the Major Tourism areas in the North of Tunisia8
This new airport is part of a broad development scheme including a neighboring deep water port project and a connection to the national railway network. Through these major 8
African Development Bank, “ADB supports Tunisia’s largest private infrastructure project-A Senior Loan of Euro 70 million to finance the Enfidha Airport Project”, 01/14/2009, last accessed 12/05/2009
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projects, Tunisia ambitions to develop a broad modern infrastructure and communication network meeting international standards. Tunisia aims to create synergies and an attractive environment to foreign investors as well as increase its competitiveness in the global market place.
3. Enfidha Zine El Abidine Ben Ali International Airport The Enfidha airport is described by its designer as a world-class facility that will cover 4,300 hectares (larger than CDG footprint) and is originally designed for a capacity of 5,000,000 passengers annually. Four phases of future expansion are included in the Master Plan. By 2036, the airport will be able to accommodate up to 22,000,000 passengers per year. The airport, at its first stage, opened in November 2009. It includes a single 3,300 meters runway (27/9), while its width total 75 meters. On the landside, the terminal usage area occupies 90,000 m² and will provide a variety of shops, boutiques, restaurants, cafes and other services to travelers as well as 18 passenger boarding bridges along with check-in counters, baggage carousels, immigration and customs booths, etc. 3.1. Key players 9
Key Players : Sponsor
Tunisian government, Tunisian Airport Authority
Designers and Architect
Aéroports de Paris, Wassim Ben Mahmoud (MIT AR'72)
Lead Contractors (Bidders)
Tepe AkfenVentures (TAV) Aéroports de Paris and Vinci Hochtief, SNC Lavalin and Aéroport de Nice Airports Company South Africa Aeropuertos & Servicios Auxiliares with Immobilliaria Furnisa Corporacíon América Sudaméricana Rothschild ARC (Airport Retail Consultants) SCET Tunisie STUDI Group
Consultants
Financing
BOT arrangement by the Tunisian Government TAV (40-year concession) World Bank
9
Enfidha Airport - New State-of-the-art international airport, Tunisia - Airport Technology, http://www.airport-technology.com/projects/enfidha/specs.html
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3.2. The contractor
The ENFIDHA ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT was constructed under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) agreement between the Tunisian Government and Tepe AkfenVentures (TAV), a Turkish company. This deal was a result of an international bidding process offered by the Tunisian Government in 2004. TAV Construction and TAV Airports Holding beat out some of the world’s leading airport building and operation companies ( Aéroports de Paris and Vinci; Hochtief, SNC Lavalin and Aéroport de Nice; Airports Company South Africa; Aeropuertos & Servicios Auxiliares with Immobilliaria Furnisa; Corporacíon América Sudaméricana). The BOT tender, a 40-year concession, also includes the operation of the existing nearby Monastir airport, about 60 km away. The rationale behind the TAV management’s decision to operate simultaneously the nearby Monastir Airport is to eliminate future potential competition and to secure an important revenue stream during the construction period. This project is the first airport private sector concession in the Maghreb region. 3.3. Airport characteristics
This new airport will be equipped with: - An East-West Airstrip:
One (01) runway (27/9) (length 3300 m; width 60 m; width of shoulders on both sides of the runway 7.5m)
One (01) parallel taxiway which centerline is situated 150 m from the runway centerline
Eight (08) exist (4 high-speed exits and 4 regular exists situated at the two extremities of the runway)
Three (03) remote apron areas: apron areas 1 and 2 are located in front of the main terminal building and cover 32,400 m² (or 8 remote stands), the apron 3 is located near the presidential block and can accommodate 6 aircrafts
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A connected apron area covering 72,000 m² which according to the airport operator TAV can accommodate 18 aircrafts (18 contact stands)
- A Terminal of around 70 000 m2 floor area - A 85 meters high ATC tower - A presidential block - Two Rescue and Fire Fighting Departments - Two protection channels to discharge upstream flows into the lagoons. - Technical and Administrative buildings required for the airport satisfactory operation
3.4. Airport design choices
The ENFIDHA ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT’s geographical coordinates are 36°04′33″N 010°26′19″E. Its IATA code is NBE and its ICAO code is DTNZ.
The ENFIDHA NBE airport was designed to accommodate FAA category VI airplane design group or ICAO code letter F aircrafts: Namely NBE airport can serve the Airbus A380, the Boeing 747-400 and the Antonov An-225. But in reality, NBE airport will mainly handle Airbus A320 (With 13 in service and 10 orders, Airbus A320-200 occupy the lion’s share in the fleet of TUNISAIR, the main carrier operating at this new airport). The average contact stand area used in the calculation of the master plan is 4,000 m² per aircraft. For sanity check, we can compare this figure with the 1,213 m² needed for an A320 and, at the end of the spectrum, with the 4,575 m² and 5,762 m² required respectively by the Boeing 747-400 and the Airbus A380. Although this airport is expected to host the first non-stop flights between Tunisia and North America (namely Canada and the United States - pending bilateral open sky agreements) we can safely assume that the proportion of wide-bodies aircrafts in the mix will remain under 5% of the total traffic in the foreseeable future. The new NBE airport is
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expected to serve charter flights arriving from Western Europe (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, and Scandinavia) and from Eastern Europe (Russia, Ukraine and Poland) as we can observe in the list of scheduled routes out of ENFIDHA ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. The volume of Eastern European tourists is expected to grow significantly in the next decade. The point is that 70% of the traffic at NBE airport will be generated by narrow-bodies aircrafts, i.e. A320, A319, A318, A321, Boeing 737, 757, A310, A300 and 767. General aviation and business aviation are very marginal in the region. Small aircrafts and Turbo-props are used mainly for domestic flights (Tunis, Djerba, Sfax and Tozeur) and short-haul international flights (Tripoli, Libya and Malta). 3.5. Master plan for future airport development and extensions
Master Plan Phase 1 2 3 4
Time Frame
2007-2009 2020-2022 2026-2028 2034-2036
Capacity 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000
Extensions New terminal building of 70,000 m² and new contact stands New runway, taxiway system and new terminal builiding of 70,000 m² New terminal building of 70,000 m² and new contact stands
This master plan constitutes one of the main strengths of this project. In fact, the multistage development of the project allows for more flexibility and hence is less risky. It also permits to invest in capital-intensive facilities as the demand arises over time as opposed to a significant upfront investment in capacity that will be under utilized for a long period of time before the traffic shows up. In addition, the 4-stage development master plan is adjustable to changes in traffic trends and hence more robust under uncertainty.
The official master plan, as planned by Aéroport de Paris (ADP), has a standard symmetrical layout (comparable to the layout of Dallas/Ft. worth (DFW) or Terminal 2 at Paris (CDG) for example) with a central main access road linked directly to the TransAfrican highway 1 stretching from the north to the south of Tunisia. The project at its final development stage consists of two independent runways and 4 terminal buildings of 70,000 m² each.
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4. Airside Capacity Analysis at NBE Airport 4.1. Runway 4.1.1. Theoretical capacity envelope for ENFIDHA airport runway (27/9)
As described in Section 10.6 of the “Airport Systems Planning, Design and Management” textbook, we shall approximate the theoretical capacity envelope as a polygon defined by four points 1 – 4.
Figure 5- A typical capacity envelope for a single runway
Point 1: Maximum throughput capacity of the ENFIDHA NBE airport assuming this runway is used for arrivals only (“all arrivals” point) In order to compute the theoretical maximum throughput capacity of this airport, I will make several assumptions: (a) Aircraft can be classified into 3 types: heavy (H), medium (M), and light (L). (b) Some relevant aircraft characteristics are as shown in Table 1 below:
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Aircraft type
Approach speed (knots)
Mix (%)
Runway occupancy time on landing (seconds)
H M L
150 135 120
5 70 25
70 60 50
Table 1 The Mix (H 5%; M 70%;L 25%) correspond to the assumptions described above (Small proportion of big aircraft, mainly medium size aircraft serving the European market, small proportion of light aircraft (turbo prop) serving primarily the domestic market, and finally the general aviation and business aviation are very marginal in the region; less than 1%). In particular, this mix is typical of a leisure destination airport such as Málaga International Airport (AGP) or the nearby Monastir International Airport (MIR) in which 88.5% of the traffic are charter flights.
The A320 family, main users of the new airport facility, with a Maximum Take-off weight of 77 tons will be classified according to the ICAO scale as medium aircraft (M) ( Professor A. Odoni, Lecture “Airside Delays and Congestion”, Slide “Aircraft Classes for Terminal Area ATC Purposes”). With an approach speed ranging between 120 and140 knots, the A320 airplane family is also considered by the FAA as type M aircraft.
(c) The length of the final approach to the runway is 6 n. miles. (d) The buffer time between successive landing aircraft is taken to be 18 sec which is rather conservative but seems to be appropriate to the Air Traffic Control (ATC) environment of Tunisia. (e) The minimum separation requirements (in nautical miles) between successive landing aircraft on final approach correspond to the ICAO recommendations (as applied in Tunisia) and are given in Table 1.
Lead: L M H L 3 5 6 M 3 3 5 H 3 3 4 Table 1- Separation requirements between successive landing aircraft
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Pij L M H
L M H 0.0625 0.175 0.0125 0.175 0.49 0.035 0.0125 0.035 0.0025 Table 2- Matrix of pair probabilities
L M H L 108 188 234 M 98 98 167 H 90 90 114 Table 3- Matrix of average time separations
E (t) = 118.15 sec
We derive the saturation capacity, which is equal to 30 aircrafts per hour using the model for computing the capacity of a single runway depicted in chapter 10 of the book.
Point 4: Maximum throughput capacity of the ENFIDHA NBE airport assuming this runway is used for departures only (“all departures” point) I will also assume that: (f) No buffer times are added for departures. (g) The minimum separation requirements (in seconds) between successive departing aircraft are given in Table 4 (rows indicate the leading aircraft and columns the trailing aircraft):
H M L H 90 120 120 M 60 60 60 L 60 60 60 Table 4- minimum separation requirements between successive departing aircraft
Based on these assumptions, we derive a maximum throughput capacity of the Enfidha NBE airports of 49 take-offs per hour.
Point 2: “Free departures” point
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I will also assume that ATC will try to insert some Type M aircraft (only) for take-off between consecutive arrivals. Based on these assumptions, we derive a free departure capacity at the Enfidha NBE airports of 7 take-offs per hour.
Point 3: “alternating arrivals and departures” point Under this strategy, i.e. alternating arrivals and departures, the hourly capacity of the runway is equal to 56 movements per hour. By design, the runway handles an equal number of landings and take-offs per hour.
Figure 6- Enfidha airport theoretical runway capacity envelope
It is now possible to compute the Practical Hourly Capacity (PHC) of the NBE airport’s runway (i.e., the number of movements that can be accommodated on the runway with an average delay of 4 minutes per aircraft). Using the equation (23.10) of de Neufville and Odoni textbook, we derive a practical hourly capacity of 47 movements per hour at the new Enfidha NBE airport. For comparison, the TAV airport operator is “declaring” a runway capacity of 20 movements per hour for the single runway at the Monastir airport. 4.1.2. Verification of adequate airfield capacity
As depicted in the project Master Plan, this single runway will be the only runway available until phase 3 expansion will materialize (programmed for 2028). In the meanwhile, the existing runway should be able to handle 10,000,000 passengers a year. That’s why we should make sure that the airfield offer sufficient capacity until 2028.
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Aircraft type
Average Capacity
Aircraft Mix (%)
Movement/ hour
Capacity /Category
Load Factor (78%)
H M L
300 140 50
5 70 25
2 33 12
600 4620 600 Total
468 3604 468 4540
Assuming only 8 hours a day of operation at an hourly capacity of 4540 passengers/hour, we arrive at a total annual capacity of 13,000,000 passengers. To conclude, we have showed that the single runway capacity is adequate for the forecasted10 passenger traffic until 2028. 4.1.3. Runway length
The length of the NBE airport’s single runway is 3,300 m or 10,827 ft. Its width is 60 m and features 7.5 m-width shoulders on both sides. The new NBE airport’s runway is comparable in length to the New York Newark’s 22/4 runways. A 3,300 m runway allows the new airport to accommodate take-offs of any aircraft of type A-F, by satisfying reference field requirements for all aircraft A-F. As mentioned above, NBE airport was designed to accommodate FAA category VI airplane design group or ICAO code letter F aircrafts: For example, the A380 with its maximum take-off weight of 590,000 kg, requires a takeoff run (reference field) of 2,900 m (9,500 ft) and thus can take-off at the Enfidha airport. 4.1.4. Runway orientation and wind coverage
The orientation of the runway is essential to the air traffic operation. In fact, the ICAO rules concerning wind coverage state that the crosswinds should not exceed:
37 km/h (20 knots) for aircraft whose reference field length is 1,500 m or more, except with poor braking action, when the limit is 24km/h (13 knots)
10
24km/h (13 knots) for reference field length between 1,200 m and 1,499 m
19 km/h (10.5 knots) for reference field length of less than 1,200 m.
Forecast presented by in the project Master Plan
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In addition, the ICAO requires that the crosswind coverage (or “airport usability factor”) to be at least 95%.
The objective is to orient the runway so as to minimize crosswinds (or maximize the airport usability factor). In this report, the goal is to understand the rational behind Monastir airport’s runway orientation (which is almost the same as Enfidha airport’s runway orientation and because no wind data was available for Enfidha). The Enfidha airport’s single runway stretches from west to east. It is oriented 27/09. In addition, this single runway offers the advantage of take-offs toward the Mediterranean Sea (and also landing approach over the sea). This characteristic is a considerable advantage since it minimizes the noise emissions and thus the disturbance for the residents of the region.
The nearby Monastir airport have a runway oriented 25/07. The Figure 7 shows the annual wind distribution for Monastir. As we can see, NNE and E winds are the most frequent.
Figure 7- Wind Distribution at Monastir11, 2008
11
www.windfinder.com
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However, there is seasonal variation as we can observe in the wind distribution at Monastir for the months of January and November depicted in Figure 8 . Based on these graphs and in the absence of more detailed meteorological data, we can see that WSWENE (or 25/07) is a good candidate for the runway orientation in the region.
Figure 8- Wind Distribution at Monastir12 during January and Novemver, 2008
4.2. Taxiway Although, the initial design (as depicted in ANNEX 2), accounted for two adjacent taxiways parallel to the runway and running through the whole length of the runway, the final project included only one parallel taxiway which centerline is situated 150 m from the runway centerline in compliance with the FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13 “Airport Design” for aircraft group VI and ICAO Annex 14 “Aerodromes” for aircraft group letter F. This decision can be justified by the relatively low traffic, as measured by aircraft movements, during the first stage of operations. For instance, the nearby Monastir airport recorded 32,300 aircraft movements in 2008 and has a conservative declared capacity of the runway of 20 movements per hour. That’s why; the capacity of the taxiway system is not the capacity bottleneck at the NBE airport.
12
www.windfinder.com
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5. Estimation of NBE Airport’s Aeronautical and Non-Aeronautical Revenues
5.1. Construction cost of the new Enfidha airport
The total construction cost of the new NBE airport (phase one) reached € 384 million and was entirely born by the Tepe Akfen Ventures (TAV). TAV financed this project partially through loans from the World Bank and the African Development Bank (€ 70 million). TAV has also the revenue stream generated by the Monastir airport, which recorded 4,262,574 passengers in 2008.
5.2. Estimation of the aeronautical revenue
In order to estimate the airside-driven revenue at the Enfidha NBE airport, I will benchmark the new airport against the nearby Monastir International Airport which is already operated by TAV. We can safely assume that TAV will apply analogous or at least comparable landing and boarding fees as well as security tax in both airports (Enfidha & Monastir). If it is not the case, the operator will experience an uneven traffic split between the two facilities; which mean lower quality of service (delays, congestion) for the travelers.
Vital Statistics - Monastir Airport
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Passengers 2008
4,262,574 (11,951 Dom & 4,250,623 Intl)
Charter*
88.5%
Scheduled*
11.5%
Direct*
98.9%
Transfer*
1.1%
Average load factor*
77%
Freight
*483 tonnes
Largest carrier
TUNIS AIR (*2007 Data)
13
http://www.habibbourguibaairport.com/, corporate information, last accessed 12/05/2009.
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The capacity of the Enfidha new airport is 5,000,000 passengers per year. I will assume that the traffic at NBE will increase steadily reaching the maximum capacity by 2020 (Beginning of phase 2; capacity increase to 10,000,000 pax/ year). Let’s also assume that the passenger traffic during the first year of operation, 2010, will reach 1,500,000 travelers (99% international, 1% domestic - see 2008 Passenger data for Monastir Airport). This assumption is based on the fact that the new airport will divert significant international traffic not only from the nearby Monastir Airport but also from the Tunis Carthage Airport. One of the motivations advocated for this new facility is to relieve the congested Capital city’s airport, Tunis-Carthage. Hence, the NBE airport will accommodate a significant proportion of the tourists heading to Nabeul-Hammamet region.
I also assumed an annual passenger traffic growth rate starting at 15% between 2010 and 2015. Then, this growth rate will decrease to 10% between 2015 and 2020, leading to a volume of traffic of 5,000,000 passengers in 2020-2021.
Table 5- Landing fees, boarding fees and security tax at Monastir International airport (MIR)14
14
http://www.habibbourguibaairport.com/6.php, TAV, 2008
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For example, an arriving Airbus A320 (MTOW of 70 tons) should pay a landing fees to TAV, the airport operator, of 532 Euros (=6×25+7.5×15+9×30). On its way back to Europe, the average 116 passengers (capacity of the A320 is about 145 and expected average load factor of 80%) will generate 1044 Euros in boarding fees to TAV and 189 Euros in security taxes to the Tunisian police and customs.
It’s worth pointing out that domestic passengers are not subject to the same boarding tariffs as international passengers (1 € per domestic passenger vs. 9 € per international passenger). Besides, domestic flights are also exempted from landing fees. This may seem strange, but domestic passengers represent less than 1% of the total passenger traffic (this figure represents 0.28% of total traffic at the Monastir airport). This pricedifferentiation could be due (likely) to the government’s will to promote domestic flights.
In addition, it is interesting to benchmark the airport charges applied at the Enfidha airport against charges applied at other airports in the world. For a departing international passenger on a Boeing 737-400 and assuming a load factor of 75%, the cost including boarding fees and security tax (no landing fees) is approximately 12 € at the new NBE airport. This figure is to be compared to 11€/ passenger for Rome, 13€/ passenger for Lisbon, 35€/ passenger for Athens and 44 €/ passenger for London Heathrow.
In General, aeronautical revenue represents between 40 and 70 percent of the total operating revenue at an airport.
Based on these assumptions and on the landing and boarding fees applied by TAV at the Monastir airport, as summarized in Table 5, we developed an aeronautical revenue cash flows simulation at the Enfidha international airport.
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Year
Forecasted Passenger Traffic
International15
Pax/ movement16
Intl aircraft mouvements/year
Average MTOW (tons)17
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
1,500,000 1,725,000 1,983,750 2,281,313 2,623,509 3,017,036 3,318,739 3,650,613 4,015,675 4,417,242 4,858,966 5,101,915 5,357,010 5,624,861 5,906,104 6,201,409 6,511,480 6,837,054 7,178,906 7,537,852 7,914,744 8,310,481 8,726,005 9,162,306 9,620,421 10,101,442 10,606,514 11,136,840 11,693,682 12,278,366 12,892,284 13,536,898 14,213,743 14,924,430 15,670,652 16,454,185 17,276,894 18,140,738 19,047,775 20,000,164 21,000,172
1,485,000 1,707,750 1,963,913 2,258,499 2,597,274 2,986,865 3,285,552 3,614,107 3,975,518 4,373,070 4,810,377 5,050,895 5,303,440 5,568,612 5,847,043 6,139,395 6,446,365 6,768,683 7,107,117 7,462,473 7,835,597 8,227,376 8,638,745 9,070,683 9,524,217 10,000,428 10,500,449 11,025,471 11,576,745 12,155,582 12,763,361 13,401,529 14,071,606 14,775,186 15,513,945 16,289,643 17,104,125 17,959,331 18,857,298 19,800,162 20,790,171
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
14,791 17,009 19,561 22,495 25,869 29,750 32,725 35,997 39,597 43,556 47,912 50,308 52,823 55,464 58,237 61,149 64,207 67,417 70,788 74,327 78,044 81,946 86,043 90,345 94,863 99,606 104,586 109,815 115,306 121,072 127,125 133,481 140,155 147,163 154,521 162,247 170,360 178,878 187,822 197,213 207,073
70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
Landing fees (arrivals only) 7,868,725 9,049,034 10,406,389 11,967,347 13,762,449 15,826,817 17,409,498 19,150,448 21,065,493 23,172,042 25,489,247 26,763,709 28,101,894 29,506,989 30,982,339 32,531,456 34,158,028 35,865,930 37,659,226 39,542,188 41,519,297 43,595,262 45,775,025 48,063,776 50,466,965 52,990,313 55,639,829 58,421,820 61,342,911 64,410,057 67,630,560 71,012,088 74,562,692 78,290,827 82,205,368 86,315,637 90,631,418 95,162,989 99,921,139 104,917,196 110,163,055
Boarding fees 6,682,500 7,684,875 8,837,606 10,163,247 11,687,734 13,440,894 14,784,984 16,263,482 17,889,830 19,678,813 21,646,695 22,729,030 23,865,481 25,058,755 26,311,693 27,627,278 29,008,641 30,459,073 31,982,027 33,581,129 35,260,185 37,023,194 38,874,354 40,818,072 42,858,975 45,001,924 47,252,020 49,614,621 52,095,352 54,700,120 57,435,126 60,306,882 63,322,226 66,488,337 69,812,754 73,303,392 76,968,562 80,816,990 84,857,839 89,100,731 93,555,768
Aeronautical Cash Flow18 14,551,225 16,733,909 19,243,995 22,130,594 25,450,184 29,267,711 32,194,482 35,413,931 38,955,324 42,850,856 47,135,942 49,492,739 51,967,376 54,565,744 57,294,032 60,158,733 63,166,670 66,325,003 69,641,253 73,123,316 76,779,482 80,618,456 84,649,379 88,881,848 93,325,940 97,992,237 102,891,849 108,036,441 113,438,264 119,110,177 125,065,686 131,318,970 137,884,918 144,779,164 152,018,122 159,619,029 167,599,980 175,979,979 184,778,978 194,017,927 203,718,823
The NBE airport should generate € 3.6 billion in aeronautical revenues over the next 40 years. This estimation is rather conservative as it does not take into account cargo revenues or aircraft parking fees. 15
Assumed 99% of International traffic as justified above. Computed assuming a load factor of 80% as well as a traffic mix composed of 5% H, 70% M and 25% L. 17 Based on the forecasted aircraft traffic mix (MTOW for an A320) 18 Aeronautical total cash flow for the corresponding fiscal year in Euro, non-discounted. 16
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5.3. Estimation of the non-aeronautical revenue
TAV contracted with the Airport Retail Consultants (ARC), Company based in London and specialized in retail strategy applied to airport terminals, “to fully leverage the revenue potential of the passengers that walk through their concourses every day”19. This fact highlights the importance of the Non-Aeronautical revenues as a percentage of the total revenues at an airport. In general, the landside-driven revenues accounts for 30 to 50% of the airport total revenue. The non-aeronautical revenues can be decomposed in four main revenue streams: Retail, food and beverages, services and parking, and advertisement.
Retail is the main non-aeronautical revenue channel. It consists of shops, duty free and souvenir stores situated in the main terminal building before and after the security checkpoint. For example, passengers save substantially buying goods free of excise taxes at the NBE airport’s 3,000 m² duty free shops. The airport operator will generally preserve a percentage on total sales. Although, some airport authority/airport operators have their own duty free brand; example, the British Airport Authority (BAA) owns World Duty Free Americas, Inc.
Food and beverages is also an important revenue stream generated by commercial concessions such as restaurants and cafes inside the airport terminal. Beyond the revenue dimension, Food and beverages providers before and after the security check-point are essential to maintain a high level of service for the customers at the airport, an environment where passengers spend a significant amount of time waiting. At Enfidha airport, 1,722 m² have been allocated to food and beverages providers, in addition to a 608 m² lounge.
Services to travelers are the third revenue channel. It includes rent of commercial spaces such as car-rental and bank currency change branches as well as short-term and long-term 19
LEK Consulting, “U.S. Airports: Increase Your Performance through a Radical Reconsideration of Your Non-Aeronautical Revenues”, Volume XI, Issue 12
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parking facilities. In the case of the new NBE airport it consists of parking capacity of 804 vehicles. In the Tunisian environment, I expect the hourly parking tariffs to be relatively cheap (compared to the US for instance). In addition, given the tourist-oriented focus of this new airport, a significant number of parking spots will be allocated to the buses that will transfer the flow of tourists to their hotels and resorts.
Advertising is the fourth non-Aeronautical revenue stream. Airport Authority offers a variety of support for advertising and sponsorship opportunities including hundreds of advertising spaces. Some offers on their website the passengers demographics. For example, on BAA website we can read: “From the statistics below, you'll see that the volume and profile of the audience at our airports presents an extraordinary opportunity to target an elusive and hard-to-reach sector: high numbers of cosmopolitan and upmarket business and leisure travellers, in an environment where they spend a significant amount of time in an uniquely receptive mindset.”20 We can also find, on this web page, the statistics of passengers by gender, by socio-economic group and by business vs. leisure segmentation. For the new Enfidha NBE airport, I assumed total advertising revenue of € 2 million in 2010 and a subsequent growth of 5% per year for the next decade.
20
http://www.heathrowairport.com/, last accessed 12/05/2009
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Year
Parking
Retail
Commercial Concessions
Advertising
NonAeronautical Cash Flow
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
1,152,000 1,221,120 1,294,387 1,372,050 1,454,373 1,541,636 1,634,134 1,732,182 1,836,113 1,946,280 2,063,057 2,186,840 2,318,050 2,457,133 2,604,561 2,760,835 2,926,485 3,102,074 3,288,199 3,485,491 3,694,620 3,916,297 4,151,275 4,400,352 4,664,373 4,944,235 5,240,889 5,555,343 5,888,663 6,241,983 6,616,502 7,013,492 7,434,301 7,880,360 8,353,181 8,854,372 9,385,634 9,948,772 10,545,699 11,178,441 11,849,147
4,500,000 5,175,000 5,951,250 6,843,938 7,870,528 9,051,107 9,956,218 10,951,840 12,047,024 13,251,726 14,576,899 15,305,744 16,071,031 16,874,583 17,718,312 18,604,227 19,534,439 20,511,161 21,536,719 22,613,555 23,744,232 24,931,444 26,178,016 27,486,917 28,861,263 30,304,326 31,819,542 33,410,519 35,081,045 36,835,097 38,676,852 40,610,695 42,641,230 44,773,291 47,011,956 49,362,554 51,830,681 54,422,215 57,143,326 60,000,492 63,000,517
240,000 249,600 259,584 269,967 280,766 291,997 303,677 315,824 328,457 341,595 355,259 369,469 384,248 399,618 415,602 432,226 449,515 467,496 486,196 505,644 525,870 546,904 568,781 591,532 615,193 639,801 665,393 692,008 719,689 748,476 778,415 809,552 841,934 875,611 910,636 947,061 984,944 1,024,342 1,065,315 1,107,928 1,152,245
2,000,000 2,100,000 2,205,000 2,315,250 2,431,013 2,552,563 2,680,191 2,814,201 2,954,911 3,102,656 3,257,789 3,420,679 3,591,713 3,771,298 3,959,863 4,157,856 4,365,749 4,584,037 4,813,238 5,053,900 5,306,595 5,571,925 5,850,521 6,143,048 6,450,200 6,772,710 7,111,345 7,466,913 7,840,258 8,232,271 8,643,885 9,076,079 9,529,883 10,006,377 10,506,696 11,032,031 11,583,632 12,162,814 12,770,955 13,409,502 14,079,977
7,892,000 8,745,720 9,710,221 10,801,205 12,036,680 13,437,303 14,574,220 15,814,046 17,166,504 18,642,257 20,253,003 21,282,731 22,365,042 23,502,632 24,698,339 25,955,145 27,276,188 28,664,768 30,124,352 31,658,589 33,271,317 34,966,571 36,748,593 38,621,848 40,591,028 42,661,072 44,837,169 47,124,783 49,529,655 52,057,828 54,715,654 57,509,818 60,447,348 63,535,639 66,782,469 70,196,018 73,784,892 77,558,143 81,525,295 85,696,363 90,081,886
The non-aeronautical revenues generated by the NBE airport over the next 40 years are estimated to € 1.58 billion. According to this simulation, the landside-driven revenue represents 30% of the total aeronautical and non-aeronautical cash flow generated by the new facility over the concession 40 years time period.
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Year
NonAeronautical Cash Flow
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
7,892,000 8,745,720 9,710,221 10,801,205 12,036,680 13,437,303 14,574,220 15,814,046 17,166,504 18,642,257 20,253,003 21,282,731 22,365,042 23,502,632 24,698,339 25,955,145 27,276,188 28,664,768 30,124,352 31,658,589 33,271,317 34,966,571 36,748,593 38,621,848 40,591,028 42,661,072 44,837,169 47,124,783 49,529,655 52,057,828 54,715,654 57,509,818 60,447,348 63,535,639 66,782,469 70,196,018 73,784,892 77,558,143 81,525,295 85,696,363 90,081,886
Aeronautical Cash Flow 14,551,225 16,733,909 19,243,995 22,130,594 25,450,184 29,267,711 32,194,482 35,413,931 38,955,324 42,850,856 47,135,942 49,492,739 51,967,376 54,565,744 57,294,032 60,158,733 63,166,670 66,325,003 69,641,253 73,123,316 76,779,482 80,618,456 84,649,379 88,881,848 93,325,940 97,992,237 102,891,849 108,036,441 113,438,264 119,110,177 125,065,686 131,318,970 137,884,918 144,779,164 152,018,122 159,619,029 167,599,980 175,979,979 184,778,978 194,017,927 203,718,823
NBE Airport Total Revenue
Discounted Revenue (10% discount rate)
22,443,225 25,479,629 28,954,216 32,931,800 37,486,864 42,705,014 46,768,702 51,227,977 56,121,828 61,493,113 67,388,945 70,775,470 74,332,417 78,068,376 81,992,370 86,113,878 90,442,858 94,989,771 99,765,605 104,781,905 110,050,799 115,585,027 121,397,972 127,503,695 133,916,968 140,653,309 147,729,018 155,161,224 162,967,919 171,168,005 179,781,340 188,828,788 198,332,267 208,314,804 218,800,591 229,815,046 241,384,872 253,538,122 266,304,273 279,714,290 293,800,710
20,402,932 21,057,545 21,753,731 22,492,862 23,276,393 24,105,867 23,999,739 23,898,229 23,801,134 23,708,257 23,619,414 22,551,246 21,531,454 20,557,843 19,628,322 18,740,889 17,893,637 17,084,745 16,312,474 15,575,163 14,871,227 14,199,155 13,557,502 12,944,889 12,360,000 11,801,580 11,268,427 10,759,399 10,273,401 9,809,391 9,366,371 8,943,392 8,539,546 8,153,965 7,785,823 7,434,329 7,098,731 6,778,307 6,472,371 6,180,267 5,901,369
Hence, the sum of the discounted revenues generated at the Enfidha airport over 40 years are estimated to € 626 million. On the other hand, the discounted construction and expansion costs equal € 502 million21. Thus in order for the Enfidha airport to be profitable22, the total cost of operating and maintaining this facility shouldn’t exceed 21 22
Based on the € 384 million construction cost and the discounted estimated cost of the future expansions. Profitability of the NBE airport independently from the Monastir airport operations.
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€124 million over the concession period. The operating and maintenance costs at the Enfidha airport are hard to predict through back-of-the-envelope calculation and in the absence of more detailed data. However given the inexpensive and very competitive skilled labor cost in Tunisia, we can assume that the operating expenses, under the Turkish holding management, are low relative to the cost of running a comparable airport in Europe or in North-America.
6. Conclusion The ENFIDHA ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT is a new world-class airport situated in the Central-East coast area of Tunisia. It is part of a multiairport system composed of the Tunis-Carthage International Airport and of the Monastir Habib Bourguiba International Airport. This modern facility aims to accommodate the millions of tourists visiting the region of Nabeul, Hammamet, Sousse, Monastir and Mahdia every year.
This project is the first airport privately built and operated in the Maghreb region and highlights a growing private sector in the development and management of airport systems.
The analysis of the Enfidha airport’s airside characteristics showed it is in compliance with the FAA standards as specified by the Advisory Circular 150/5300-13 “Airport Design” for aircraft group VI, for which the airport was designed. Furthermore, the airside capacity as well as the landside capacity is sufficient to handle the forecasted traffic growth until 2028.
The planning for this new project shows to be very flexible and adjustable to changes in traffic trends. The 4-stage development of the project, as depicted in the master plan, allow investing progressively as the demand arises over time as opposed to a significant upfront investment in a facility that will be under utilized for a long period of time before the traffic shows up.
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Bibliography 1. “Enfidha Airport - New State-of-the-art International Airport” , Airport Technology.com, http://www.airport-technology.com/. 2. De Neufville, R. and A. Odoni. “Airports Systems Planning, Design and Management”, McGraw-Hill, New-York, 2003. 3. COMETE Engineering, “TAV Tunisie’s Environmental Impact Assesment Report for Enfidha New International Airport”, Tunis, December 2007. 4. TAV, http://www.tavairports.com/ 5. OACA (Tunisian Airport Authority), http://www.oaca.nat.tn/ 6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunis-Carthage_International_Airport 7. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monastir_-_Habib_Bourguiba_International_Airport
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ANNEX1: Map of ENFIDHA NBE AIRPORT
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ANNEX 2: MAP OF TUNISIA
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