Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France Stéphane De Cara INRA UMR Economie Publique – INRA AgroParisTech Grignon, France
AES Conference on Policies for Climate Change and European Agriculture: Adaptation and Mitigation Reading, UK
09/20/2013
Key messages 1. Not so small! 2. Not that expensive! (if done right) 3. Not much is currently done to get it right 4. Mitigation and adaptation are linked
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_01 GHG emissions from French agriculture .03 Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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GHG emissions in France (2011) Sources 100.0
500
Energy; 10.5
80.0
400
Agricultural soils; 48.4
60.0 MtCO2eq
300
~10%
~20%
200
Cropland; 16.6
Manure management; 14.7 Enteric fermentation; 28.3
LULUCF
Agriculture
40.0 20.0
100
0.0
0
-20.0
Settlement; 14.3
Forestland; -65.0
-40.0
-100 Gross Net emissions emissions CO2
CH4
N2O
LULUCF Agriculture Other
-60.0 -80.0
Grassland; -7.5 Wetland; -3.5
Sinks Source: CITEPA (2013) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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French emissions from AFOLU Synthetic fertilisers (N2O) [cumul 1993-2003, tCO2eq/ha]
Source: Chakir et al. (2011) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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French emissions from AFOLU Enteric fermentation (CH4) [cumul 1993-2003, tCO2eq/ha]
Source: Chakir et al. (2011) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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French emissions from AFOLU Manure mang’t and spreading (N2O+CH4) [cumul 1993-2003, tCO2eq/ha]
Source: Chakir et al. (2011) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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French emissions from AFOLU LULUCF (CO2)
[cumul 1993-2003, tCO2eq/ha]
Source: Chakir et al. (2011) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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French emissions from AFOLU Net AFOLU emissions [cumul 1993-2003, tCO2eq/ha]
Source: Chakir et al. (2011) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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GHG emissions in France (1990-2011) 105
Index (1990=100)
100
95
Agricultural emissions (N2O+CH4) 90
85
80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: CITEPA (2013) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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GHG emissions in France (1990-2011) 105
Emissions from other sectors (excl. LULUCF)
Index (1990=100)
100
95
Agricultural emissions (N2O+CH4) 90
85
80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: CITEPA (2013) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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GHG emissions in France (1990-2011) 105
Emissions from other sectors (excl. LULUCF) Net emissions
Index (1990=100)
100
95
Agricultural emissions (N2O+CH4) 90
85
80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: CITEPA (2013) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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GHG emissions in France (1990-2011) 105
Index (1990=100)
100
95
Agricultural emissions (N2O+CH4) 90
2020 Non-ETS target: -14% /2005
85
80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: CITEPA (2013) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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GHG emissions in France: Projections to 2020 105
Index (1990=100)
100
95
Agricultural emissions (N2O+CH4) 90
85
80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: De Cara, Thomas (2008), Forslund et al. (2009) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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_02 Mitigation
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Mitigation potential and costs Evaluating the ‘technical’ mitigation potential is necessary… but not sufficient Marginal abatement costs are key to cost-effectiveness MAC are not directly observable => models
Supply-side, farm-level models [e.g. De Cara, Jayet, 2000; 2011; De Cara et al., 2005]
Partial or general equilibrium models [e.g. McCarl, Schneider, 2001; Golub et al, 2011]
Practice-based, ‘engineering’ studies [e.g. Moran et al, 2011; Bamière, Pellerin et al, 2013]
The modelling approach matters (Vermont, De Cara, 2010)
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Marginal abatement cost (€/tCO2eq)
MAC: A model-based assessment Supply-side, farm-level model of EU agriculture
France (144 farm-types)
Emission coverage: N2O (synthetic and organic N) CH4 (enteric ferm., manure, rice) Mitigation options: crop allocation, N use, animal feeding, animal numbers 10% reduction obtained at ~35 €/tCO2eq
Abatement rate Source: De Cara and Jayet (2011) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Marginal abatement cost (€/tCO2eq)
MAC: A model-based assessment Supply-side, farm-level model of EU agriculture
EU (1307 farm-types) France (144 farm-types)
Emission coverage: N2O (synthetic and organic N) CH4 (enteric ferm., manure, rice) Mitigation options: crop allocation, N use, animal feeding, animal numbers 10% reduction obtained at ~35 €/tCO2eq MAC slightly lower than in the rest of the EU MAC (10% red. at ~45 €/tCO2eq)
Abatement rate (/2005) Source: De Cara and Jayet (2011) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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MAC: A practice-based assessment Recent study conducted by INRA for ADEME and the ministries of agriculture and environment Mitigation potential and cost of 10 actions (26 subactions) regarding crop, livestock, soil C and energy use
Practice-based assessment of abatement potential and costs in 2030 relative to 2010 levels Approach: National resolution No major changes to the productive capacity Emission accounting: current inventory rules + higher tier, direct and indirect emissions
Source: Pellerin, Bamière et al. (2013) .019 Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Lipid, additives
Cover crops
Agroforestry
Anaerobic digester
Reduced tillage
Nitrogen fertliser mang’t
Animal Feeding (proteins) Legume crops
Grassland mang’t
Energy savings
Abatement cost (€/tCO2eq)
MAC: A practice-based assessment
Mitigation potential (MtCO2eq)
Total mitigation potential (excl. indirect emissions): ~32 MtCO2eq (But only 10 MtCO2eq w/ current inventory rules) Source: Pellerin, Bamière et al. (2013) .020 Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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MAC: A practice-based assessment Require investments and/or Require investments and/or changes in practices changes in practices (possible additional income) (no additional income)
Abatement cost (€/tCO2eq)
Increase in input-use efficiency (N, energy)
Mitigation potential (MtCO2eq)
Source: Pellerin, Bamière et al. (2013) .021 Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Policy instruments Agricultural emissions largely excluded from existing climate policy instruments (ETS, carbon tax project) Some up- /down-stream sectors covered by ETS Some JI projects (alfalfa, linseed in anim. feeding) Biofuel & bioenergy Incorporation of liquid biofuel Development of anaeorobic digesters Agricultural measures
Reduce N surplus Increase energy efficiency Protect grassland
Source: DGEC (2013) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Cost-effective policy instruments Cost-effectiveness requires that farmers include the value of emissions in their production decisions Large heterogeneities: large gains to be expected from economic instruments Inclusion of agriculture could reduce the total cost of meeting the overall mitigation target (De Cara, Vermont, 2011) Issues: Monitoring, reporting & verification Transaction costs & barriers to adoption Uncertainty in emission accounting Leakage .023 Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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_03 Climate impacts and adaptation
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Climate impacts on agriculture Climator results on yields (Brisson, Levrault, 2010) Wheat: (shorter cycle, less frost, CO2 effect) Maize: (water stress, esp. in the South West) Rapeseed: (but sensitive to droughts) Grassland:
Adaptation: agricultural practices (e.g. irrigation, timing, etc.) but also land-use change Econometric Ricardian model of land use (Ay et al., in prep.)
Land rents linked to climate and soil characteristics Land use model (Teruti data, multinomial logit, five LU categories) Projections to the mid-21st century (scenario A1b) .025 Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Ricardian model: Results (2053-1993, A1b) Cropland: + 4,65 Mha
Source: Ay et al. (in prep.) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Ricardian model: Results (2053-1993, A1b) Grassland: -8,49 Mha
Source: Ay et al. (in prep.) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Ricardian model: Results (2053-1993, A1b) Forestland: +0,27 Mha
Source: Ay et al. (in prep.) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Ricardian model: Results (2053-1993, A1b) Perennial crops: +1,65 Mha
Source: Ay et al. (in prep.) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Ricardian model: Results (2053-1993, A1b) Urban: +1,91 Mha
Source: Ay et al. (in prep.) Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Key messages 1. Not so small! Importance of agriculture for French & EU emission 2. Not that expensive! (if done right) There is a potential to reduce these emissions costeffectively 3. Not much is currently done to get it right Current measures do not provide the right incentives to realise this potential cost-effectively 4. Mitigation and adaptation are linked Land-use change due to climate change may have important impacts on mitigation
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_04 References
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References (1/2) Ay, J.-S.; Chakir, R.; Doyen, L.; Jiguet, F.; Leadley, P. (in prep.), 'Integrated models and scenarios of climate, land use and common birds dynamics', Working paper, UMR Economie Publique, Grignon, France. Brisson, N.; Levrault, F. (2010), 'Synthèse du projet Climator‘. INRA-ADEME-ANR. http://www2.ademe.fr/servlet/getBin?name=E00E0F5F49FA1A3AE4A72F274D8290AF1289295938624.pdf Chakir, R.; De Cara, S. & Vermont, B. (2011), 'Emissions de gaz à effet de serre dues à l'agriculture et aux usages des sols en France: Une analyse spatiale', Economie et statistique 444-445, 201--220. CITEPA (2013), 'Inventaire des émissions de gaz à effet de serre en France au titre de la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques', CITEPA - Ministère de l'Ecologie et du Développement Durable, Paris, France. De Cara, S. & Jayet, P.-A. (2000), 'Emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture: The heterogeneity of abatement costs in France', European Review of Agricultural Economics 27(3), 281--303. De Cara, S.; Houzé, M. & Jayet, P.-A. (2005), 'Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture in the EU: A spatial assessment of sources and abatement costs', Environmental and Resource Economics 32(4), 551--583. De Cara, S. & Jayet, P.-A. (2011), 'Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture, cost-effectiveness, and the EU non-ETS Burden Sharing Agreement', Ecological Economics 70(9), 1680--1690. De Cara, S. & Vermont, B. (2011), 'Policy Considerations for Mandating Agriculture in a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme: A Comment', Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 33(4), 661--667. De Cara, S. (in prep.), 'Minimum emission threshold to limit transaction costs in emission trading schemes: An application to EU agricultural GHG emissions', Working paper, INRA, UMR Economie Publique, Grignon, France.
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References (2/2) Direction Générale de l'Energie et du Climat, D. G. (2013), 'Rapport de la France au titre du paragraphe 2 de l'article 3 de la décision n°280/2004/CE du Parlement européen et du Conseil du 11 février 2004. Actualisation 2013', Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable et de l'Energie, Paris, France, 178~p. http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Fr_RMS_2013__.pdf Golub, A.; Hertel, T.; Lee, H.-L.; Rose, S. & Sohngen, B. (2009), 'The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry', Resource and Energy Economics 31(4), 299--319. McCarl, B. A. & Schneider, U. A. (2001), 'Greenhouse gas mitigation in U.S. agriculture and forestry', Science 294, 24812482. Moran, D.; MacLeod, M.; Wall, E.; Eory, V.; McVittie, A.; Barnes, A.; Rees, R.; Topp, C.; Pajot, G.; Matthews, R.; Smith, P. & Moxey, A. (2011), 'Developing carbon budgets for UK agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry out to 2022', Climatic Change 105(3--4), 529--553. Pellerin S., Bamière L., Angers D., Béline F., Benoît M., Butault J.P., Chenu C., Colnenne-David C., De Cara S., Delame N., Doreau M., Dupraz P., Faverdin P., Garcia-Launay F., Hassouna M., Hénault C., Jeuffroy M.H., Klumpp K., Metay A., Moran D., Recous S., Samson E., Savini I. & Pardon L., 2013. Quelle contribution de l’agriculture française à la réduction des émissions de gaz à efet de serre ? Potentiel d'atténuation et coût de dix actions techniques. Synthèse du rapport d'étude, INRA, Paris, France, 92 p. Terray, L. & Boé, J. (2013), 'Quantifying 21st-century France climate change and related uncertainties ', Comptes Rendus Geoscience 345(3), 136--149. Vermont, B. & De Cara, S. (2010), 'How costly is mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture? A meta-analysis', Ecological Economics 69(7), 1373--1386.
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_05 Additional material
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Key facts & figures French mitigation targets 2050: -75% (“Facteur 4”) / 1990 2020: -14% for non-ETS emissions / 2005
GHG emissions from French agriculture: ~20% of French GHG emissions ~20% of EU-27 agricultural emissions Due to both crops (N2O) and livestock (N2O and CH4)
Net LULUCF sink ~10% of French GHG emissions ~15% of EU-27 LULUCF sink Largely due to existing forest (~16 Mha)
Climate projections (Terray, Boé, 2013) 2100: from +2° to + 4° (winter), from +2° to + 6° (summer) Reduction in summer precipitations (South), slight increase in winter precipitations (North)
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Per-farm GHG emissions (N2O, CH4)
Share in total emissions
Large number of ‘small’ emitters
FR
FR
N (1000 farms)
299
Mean (tCO2eq.farm-1.yr-1)
303
[min; max]
[71;850]
Share in total population
Source: De Cara (in prep., based on FADN) .037 Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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Share in total emissions
Per-farm GHG emissions (N2O, CH4)
FR
FR
EU-25
N (1000 farms)
299
2446
Mean (tCO2eq.farm-1.yr-1)
303
161
[71;850]
[0;3909]
[min; max]
EU
Share in total population
Source: De Cara (in prep., based on FADN) .038 Stéphane De Cara / Climate Change and Agriculture: Implications for France
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