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The Military Balance 2013

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Capabilities North Korea maintains the world’s fourth-largest standing armed forces. However, equipment is mainly in a poor state, and training, morale and operational readiness all remain questionable. Pyongyang relies on weight of numbers and asymmetric capabilities to deter its southern neighbour, with which North Korea is still officially at war. North Korea is actively pursuing a nuclear-weapons capability, with two devices tested in 2006 and 2009, a second route to nuclearisation opened up by the uranium enrichment programme revealed in 2010, and a ballistic-missile programme that has deployed hundreds of short- and medium-range missiles. However, there is no proof that North Korea has successfully weaponised a nuclear device. The ideological ‘military first’ construct ensures that the armed forces will continue to have prioritised access to resources. New leader Kim Jong-un’s early visits to military facilities in the first months of his tenure suggest little change in the military-first policy.

ACTIVE 1,190,000 (Army ε1,020,000 Navy 60,000 Air 110,000) Paramilitary 189,000

Terms of service Army 5–12 years, Navy 5–10 years Air Force 3–4 years, followed by compulsory part-time service to age 40. Thereafter service in the Worker/Peasant Red Guard to age 60.

RESERVE ε600,000 (Armed Forces ε600,000), Paramilitary 5,700,000

Reservists are assigned to units (see also Paramilitary)

Organisations by Service Strategic Forces

North Korea’s No-dong missiles and H-5 (Il-28) bombers could in future be used to deliver nuclear warheads or bombs. At present, however, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that North Korea has successfully produced a warhead or bomb capable of being delivered by either of these systems.

Army ε1,020,000 FORCES BY ROLE COMMAND 2 mech corps HQ 9 inf corps HQ 1 (Capital Defence) corps HQ MANOEUVRE Armoured 1 armd div 15 armd bde Mechanised 4 mech div Light 27 inf div 14 inf bde COMBAT SUPPORT 1 arty div 21 arty bde

9 MRL bde 1 SSM bde with Scud 1 SSM bde with FROG-7 5–8 engr river crossing / amphibious regt 1 engr river crossing bde

Special Purpose Forces Command 88,000 FORCES BY ROLE SPECIAL FORCES 8 (Reconnaissance General Bureau) SF bn MANOEUVRE Reconnaissance 17 recce bn Light 9 lt inf bde 6 sniper bde Air Manoeuvre 3 AB bde 1 AB bn 2 sniper bde Amphibious 2 sniper bde

Reserves 600,000 FORCES BY ROLE MANOEUVRE Light 40 inf div 18 inf bde EQUIPMENT BY TYPE (ε) MBT 3,500+ T-34/T-54/T-55/T-62/Type-59/Chonma/Pokpoong LT TK 560+: 560 PT-76; M-1985 APC 2,500+ APC (T) Type-531 (Type-63); VTT-323 APC (W) 2,500 BTR-40/BTR-50/BTR-60/BTR-80A/BTR152/BTR look-a-like ARTY 21,000+ SP/TOWED 8,500: SP 122mm M-1977/M-1981/M1985/M-1991; 130mm M-1975/M-1981/M-1991; 152mm M-1974/M-1977; 170mm M-1978/M-1989 TOWED 122mm D-30/D-74/M-1931/37; 130mm M-46; 152mm M-1937/M-1938/M-1943 GUN/MOR 120mm (reported) MRL 5,100: 107mm Type-63; 122mm BM-11/M-1977 (BM-21)/M-1985/M-1992/M-1993; 240mm M-1985/M1989/M-1991 MOR 7,500: 82mm M-37; 120mm M-43; 160mm M-43 AT • MSL SP 9K11 Malyutka (AT-3 Sagger) MANPATS 2K15 Shmel (AT-1 Snapper); 9K111 Fagot (AT-4 Spigot); 9K113 Konkurs (AT-5 Spandrel) RCL 82mm 1,700 B-10 AD SAM SP some 9K35 Strela-10 (SA-13 Gopher) MANPAD 9K310 Igla-1 (SA-16 Gimlet)/9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7 Grail)‡ GUNS 11,000 SP 14.5mm M-1984; 23mm M-1992; 37mm M-1992; 57mm M-1985

Asia

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Navy ε60,000 EQUIPMENT BY TYPE SUBMARINES • TACTICAL 72: SSK 22 PRC Type-031/FSU Romeo† with 8 single 533mm TT with 14 SAET-60 HWT SSC 30+: 28 Sang-O† with 2 single 533mm TT with Type-53–65 HWT; 2+ Sang-O II (reported) with 4 single 533mm TT with Type-53–65 HWT; SSW 20† (some Yugo with 2 single 406mm TT; some Yeono)
 PRINCIPAL SURFACE COMBATANTS 3 FRIGATES • FFG 3: 2 Najin with 2 single lnchr with P-15 Termit (SS-N-2) AShM, 2 RBU 1200, 2 100mm gun 1 Soho with 4 single lnchr with P-15 Termit (SS-N-2) AShM, 2 RBU 1200, 1 100mm gun, 1 hel landing platform (for med hel) PATROL AND COASTAL COMBATANTS 383 PCG 18 8 Osa II with 2 single lnchr with P-15 Termit (SS-N-2) AShM 10 Soju with 4 single lnchr with P-15 Termit (SS-N-2) AShM PCO 5: 4 Sariwon; 1 Tral with 1 85mm gun PCC 18: 6 Hainan with 4 RBU 1200 12 Taechong with 2 RBU 1200, 1 100mm gun PBFG 16: 4 Huangfen with 4 single lnchr with P-15 Termit (SS-N2) AShM 6 Komar with 2 single lnchr with P-15 Termit (SS-N-2) AShM 6 Sohung with 2 single lnchr with P-15 Termit (SS-N-2) AShM PBF 229: 54 Chong-Jin; 142 Ku Song/Sin Hung/Sin Hung (mod); 33 Sinpo PB 97 59 Chaho 6 Chong-Ju with 2 RBU 1200, 1 85mm gun 13 Shanghai II 19 SO-1 MINE WARFARE • MINE COUNTERMEASURES 24: 19 Yukto I; 5 Yukto II AMPHIBIOUS LANDING SHIPS • LSM 10 Hantae (capacity 3 tanks; 350 troops) LANDING CRAFT 257: LCPL 96 Nampo (capacity 35 troops) LCM 25 LCVP 136 (capacity 50 troops)

LOGISTICS AND SUPPORT 23: AS 8 (converted cargo ships); ASR 1 Kowan; AGI 14 (converted fishing vessels)

Coastal Defence FORCES BY ROLE COMBAT SUPPORT 2 AShM regt with HY-1 (CSS-N-2) (6 sites, and probably some mobile launchers) EQUIPMENT BY TYPE ARTY • TOWED 122mm M-1931/37; 152mm M-1937 COASTAL 130mm M-1992; SM-4-1 MSL • AShM HY-1 (CSS-N-2); KN-01 (in development)

Air Force 110,000

4 air divs. 1st, 2nd and 3rd Air Divs (cbt) responsible for N, E and S air defence sectors respectively; 8th Air Div (trg) responsible for NE sector. The AF controls the national airline. Flying hours  20 hrs/year on ac FORCES BY ROLE BOMBER 3 (lt) regt with H-5† FIGHTER 1 regt with F-7B Airguard 6 regt with J-5 4 regt with J-6 5 regt with J-7 1 regt with MiG-23ML/P Flogger 1 regt with MiG-29 Fulcrum FIGHTER/GROUND ATTACK 1 regt with Su-7 Fitter GROUND ATTACK 1 regt with Su-25 Frogfoot TRANSPORT Some regt with Y-5 (to infiltrate 2 air-force sniper brigades deep into ROK rear areas), but possibly grounded; An-24 Coke; Il-18 Coot; Il-62M Classic; Tu-134 Crusty; Tu-154 Careless TRAINING Some regt with CJ-6; FT-2; MiG-21 Fishbed ATTACK HELICOPTER 1 regt with Mi-24 Hind TRANSPORT HELICOPTER Some regt with Hughes 500D†; Mi-8 Hip/Mi-17 Hip H; PZL Mi-2 Hoplite; Z-5 AIR DEFENCE 19 bde with S-125 Pechora (SA-3 Goa); S-75 Dvina (SA-2 Guideline); S-200 Angara (SA-5 Gammon); 9K36 Strela-3 (SA-14 Gremlin); 9K310 Igla-1 (SA-16 Gimlet); 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7 Grail)‡; (KN-06 SAM system shown in 2010) EQUIPMENT BY TYPE AIRCRAFT 603 combat capable BBR 80 H-5† FTR 441+: 40 F-7B Airguard; 107 J-5; 100 J-6; 120 J-7†; 46 MiG-23ML Flogger; 10 MiG-23P Flogger; 18+ MiG-29A/S Fulcrum FGA 48: 30 MiG-21bis Fishbed†; 18 Su-7 Fitter ATK 34 Su-25 Frogfoot

Asia

TOWED 11,000: 14.5mm ZPU-1/ZPU-2/ZPU-4; 23mm ZU-23; 37mm M-1939; 57mm S-60; 85mm M-1939 KS12; 100mm KS-19 MSL SSM 64+: 24 FROG-3/FROG-5/FROG-7; KN-08 (in development); some Musudan; ε10 No-dong (ε90+ msl); 30+ Scud-B/Scud-C (ε200+ msl)

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The Military Balance 2013

TPT 217: Light 208: 6 An-24 Coke; 2 Tu-134 Crusty; ε200 Y-5 PAX 9: 2 Il-18 Coot; 2 Il-62M Classic; 4 Tu-154 Careless; 1 Tu-204-300 TRG 215: 180 CJ-6; 35 FT-2 HELICOPTERS ATK 20 Mi-24 Hind MRH 80 Hughes 500D† TPT 202 Medium 63: 15 Mi-8 Hip/Mi-17 Hip H; 48 Z-5 Light 139 PZL Mi-2 Hoplite UAV • ISR • Light Pchela-1 (Shmel) AD • SAM 3400+ TOWED 312+: 179+ S-75 Dvina (SA-2 Guideline); 133 S-125 Pechora (SA-3 Goa) STATIC/SHELTER 38 S-200 (SA-5 Gammon) MANPAD 3,050+ 9K32 Strela-2 (SA-7 Grail)‡; 9K36 Strela-3 (SA-14 Gremlin); 9K310 Igla-1 (SA-16 Gimlet) MSL ASM Kh-23 (AS-7 Kerry); Kh-25 (AS-10 Karen) AShM KN-01 AAM • IR R-3 (AA-2 Atoll)‡; R-60 (AA-8 Aphid); R-73 (AA-11 Archer); PL-5; PL-7; SARH R-23/24 (AA-7 Apex); R-27R/ER (AA-10 A/C Alamo)

Paramilitary 189,000 active Security Troops 189,000 (incl border guards, public safety personnel) Ministry of Public Security

Worker/Peasant Red Guard ε5,700,000 reservists Org on a provincial/town/village basis; comd structure is bde–bn–coy–pl; small arms with some mor and AD guns (but many units unarmed)

Cyber Since the 1970s, the North Korean military (the Korean People’s Army – KPA) has maintained a modest electronic warfare (EW) capability. As a result of strategic reviews following Operation Desert Storm, the KPA established an information warfare (IW) capability under the concept of ‘electronic intelligence warfare’ (EIW). Complementing these EIW developments, the KPA is believed to have expanded its EW capabilities with the introduction of more modern ELINT equipment, jammers and radars. In 1998, Unit 121 was reportedly established within the Reconnaissance Bureau of the General Staff Department to undertake offensive cyber operations. Staff are trained in North Korea but some also receive training in Russia and China. In early 2012, activity attributed to Pyongyang included jamming the global positioning systems of aircraft using Seoul’s main international airports, as well as those of vessels in nearby waters for two weeks. North Korea also continued to launch distributed denial of service attacks on South Korean institutions and pursue cyber infiltration against military and other government agencies.

Korea, Republic of ROK South Korean Won

2011

2012

1237.13tr

1309.38tr

GDP

won US$

1.12tr

1.15tr

per capita

US$

22,922

23,536

Growth

%

3.63

2.69

Inflation

%

4.03

2.22

Def bdgt

won

31.4tr

33tr

US$

28.3bn

29bn

1108.29

1137.34

US$1=won Population

2013

34.6tr

48,860,500

Age

0–14

15–19

20–24

25–29

Male

7.9%

3.7%

3.5%

3.6%

26.5%

4.8%

Female

7.2%

3.3%

3.1%

3.2%

26.1%

7.0%

30–64 65 plus

Capabilities More than half a century of tailoring its defence posture around the possibility of an invasion from its northern neighbour has left South Korea with some of the bestequipped and most capable armed forces in East Asia. But not even this has been able to deter lethal aggression from the north – as demonstrated by the sinking of the Cheonan in March 2010, and the shelling of Yeongpyeong Island in November 2010. These attacks took Seoul by surprise, leading to a commitment to invest in improving the South’s capacity to deter and, if necessary, respond to northern aggression. At the same time, South Korea is developing broader ambitions, building a blue-water navy and a major new naval base on Jeju island. The country has also demonstrated a willingness to deploy forces overseas in support of international coalitions and operations. The Cheonghae Unit is a dedicated counter-piracy task force that has operated in the Indian Ocean since April 2009.

ACTIVE 655,000 (Army 522,000 Navy 68,000 Air 65,000) Paramilitary 4,500

Terms of service conscription: Army, Navy and Air Force 26 months

RESERVE 4,500,000

Reserve obligation of three days per year. First Combat Forces (Mobilisation Reserve Forces) or Regional Combat Forces (Homeland Defence Forces) to age 33.

Paramilitary 3,000,000 Being reorganised

Organisations by Service Army 522,000 FORCES BY ROLE COMMAND 2 army HQ 8 corps HQ 1 (Capital Defence) comd HQ