I had a dream⦠âThe US to provide the structure (price cap/indexed targets). âThe EU to provide the figures. âThe developing countries to get exempted but ...
BEYOND KYOTO: What we have learned Cédric Philibert UNFCCC Secretariat Bonn, 12 February, 2004 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
From theory and experience z Climate change is global, long-term and surrounded by (cost and benefit) uncertainties z Growing energy needs will not make it easy! z Price instruments would perform better Benefits relate to concentrations, costs to emissions z But carbon taxes are unlikely to succeed z And fixed & binding targets hard to swallow (by nature arbitrary) z Technology push useful, no silver bullet INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
At Kyoto… zThe US provided the structure (trading) zThe EU provided the figures zThe developing countries got exempted, but…(CDM) INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
I had a dream… zThe US to provide the structure (price cap/indexed targets) zThe EU to provide the figures zThe developing countries to get exempted but…(Wide CDM/ Non-binding targets) INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Suggestion 1/3
Keep emissions trading z Cost-effective z Environmentally effective z Allows (some) free allocation Helps
deal with vested interests
z Allows the rich to pay for the poor z Mobilises private, not government funding
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Suggestion 2/3
Make it global z Large, sector-wide, unilaterally-funded CDM z Non-binding targets for developing countries z Set « targets » close to baseline emissions No
threat for economic development No need for tropical hot air up-front Commitment period reserve and buy-back option to prevent selling false carbon money INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Suggestion 3/3
Reduce cost uncertainty z Index targets on economic output… Intensity targets only a special case of indexation Only reduce uncertainty from unabated emissions trend
z … and/or cap the costs (safety valve) Sell supplementary permits at a fixed price At international or domestic levels Set the price in the upper range of expectations A price cap is not a tax! Single price cap not that difficult… nor necessary Use of the price cap money not a difficulty
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Don’t worry… z Most likely, a more stringent target is achieved (thanks to lower expected abatement costs) z Price cap ‘in use’ if higher-than-projected costs z ...a cost benefit analysis would have suggested higher emissions and concentration levels… z Price cap with more ambitious targets performs ‘en route’ the CBA impossible today z Price caps make short-term targets more palatable, long-term targets indicative only INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
…be happy! z The EU (and other countries /stakeholders) with ambitious targets z The US (and other countries /stakeholders) with price caps z The developing countries with investment and technology inflows from emissions trading based on non-binding targets z All, with effective global climate change mitigation and response to energy needs INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
several options to better deal with uncertain costs, namely, price caps, indexed targets, and non-binding targets for developing countries. Keywords: Climate ...
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